LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 15/16

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletin16/english.january14.16.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
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Bible Quotations For Today
Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it!
"Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 11/27-31: "A woman in the crowd raised her voice and said to him, ‘Blessed is the womb that bore you and the breasts that nursed you!’But he said, ‘Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it!’When the crowds were increasing, he began to say, ‘This generation is an evil generation; it asks for a sign, but no sign will be given to it except the sign of Jonah. For just as Jonah became a sign to the people of Nineveh, so the Son of Man will be to this generation. The queen of the South will rise at the judgement with the people of this generation and condemn them, because she came from the ends of the earth to listen to the wisdom of Solomon, and see, something greater than Solomon is here!"

All things have been created through Jesus and for him. He himself is before all things, and in him all things hold together."
Letter to the Colossians 01/09-17: "For this reason, since the day we heard it, we have not ceased praying for you and asking that you may be filled with the knowledge of God’s will in all spiritual wisdom and understanding, so that you may lead lives worthy of the Lord, fully pleasing to him, as you bear fruit in every good work and as you grow in the knowledge of God. May you be made strong with all the strength that comes from his glorious power, and may you be prepared to endure everything with patience, while joyfully giving thanks to the Father, who has enabled you to share in the inheritance of the saints in the light. He has rescued us from the power of darkness and transferred us into the kingdom of his beloved Son, in whom we have redemption, the forgiveness of sins. He is the image of the invisible God, the firstborn of all creation; for in him all things in heaven and on earth were created, things visible and invisible, whether thrones or dominions or rulers or powers all things have been created through him and for him. He himself is before all things, and in him all things hold together."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on january 14-15.16.htm
Lebanon's loyalties exposed/Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/January 14/16
How rivals would react if Geagea supports Aoun’s candidacy/Hasan Lakkis| The Daily Star/January 14/16
Lazzarini to place Lebanon’s needs as top priority on global agenda/Madonna Semaan/Al-Monitor/January 15/16
Implementation date of nuclear deal to be announced within days/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/January 15/16
What’s Larijani’s game for the parliamentary elections/Saeid Jafari/Al-Monitor/January 15/16
State of the Union highlights Jordan’s rift with Obama/Aaron Magid/Al-Monitor/January 15/16
What are the real goals behind local truces in Syria/Mustafa al-Haj/Al-Monitor/January 15/16
Middle East reality: An inconvenient truth for Obama/Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/January 14/16
Geopolitical balance with Pakistan/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/January 14/16
Arabs and Iran — the last chance/Mohammed Fahad al-Harthi/Al Arabiya/January 14/16
From Russia without love/Michael Young/Now Lebanon/January 14/16


Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on january 14-15.16.htm
Lebanese Officials Slam Samaha's Release as Protesters Block Roads
Michel Samaha granted bail
Military Court Approves Release of Ex-Minister Samaha on Bail
Geagea on Samaha Release: We Don't Want Presidential Vote in State that Behaves This Way
Raad Criticizes 'Malicious, Temperamental' Statements Rejecting Samaha's Release
18 Arrested, 4 Injured as Activists Storm Environment Ministry
FPM, Hizbullah Boycott Cabinet Session over Appointments Row
Gemayel Urges 'Consensual President': We Won't Elect Our Rival
Lebanese Army Arrests Human Smuggling Rings
Report: Berri Against Exporting Lebanon's Waste
Lebanese Army Hunts Fugitives in Baalbek, 1 Dead
Exclusive footage and images from Bennesbeh Labokra Chou?
Lebanon's loyalties exposed
How rivals would react if Geagea supports Aoun’s candidacy
Lazzarini to place Lebanon’s needs as top priority on global agenda

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on january 14-15.16.htm
Canada Condemns Attacks in Jakarta
IS-Linked Suicide Attackers Hit Indonesian Capital
Regime Forces Approach IS Bastion in Aleppo
Ban Says Syria Sieges War Crime as Western Powers Call Security Council Meeting
New Aid Convoy Enters Hunger-Stricken Syrian Town
Netanyahu Slams 'Stupid' Swedish Minister's Probe Call
Lavrov and Kerry to Meet in Zurich on January 20 for Syria Talks
Egypt Extends Mandate in Saudi-led Yemen Coalition
Kerry and Saudi FM Meet to Soothe Frayed Ties
U.N. Peace Envoy Leaves Yemen Empty Handed
Iraq Receives Saudi Envoy Credentials despite Anti-Riyadh Anger
Saudi Executes Yemeni for Killing Employer
Turkey Shelled IS in Iraq, Syria after Istanbul Attack, Says PM


Links From Jihad Watch Site for january 14-15.16.htm
Hugh Fitzgerald: Goodbye to Al Jazeera America.
Hundreds, maybe thousands, of Muslims from China waging jihad in Syria.
Muslim refugee in Texas: “I want to blow myself up…I am against America”.
Pakistan: Muslims murder 15 with jihad attack at polio vaccination center.
Danish 15-year-old girl, convert to Islam, arrested for possessing explosives.
3 jihad suicide bombers in Jakarta Starbucks; explosions, gunfire in city.
Germany: Voluntary programs to teach migrants sex equality and free speech.
Iran: Boat seizure “should be a lesson to troublemakers in the U.S. Congress”.
Hypocrite Lecteur.
France outlaws three Islamic groups over ties to jihadists.

Lebanese Officials Slam Samaha's Release as Protesters Block Roads
Naharnet/January 14/16/Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea criticized on Thursday a court's decision to release ex-Minister Michel Samaha from custody stating that it is “rejected by all means.”“Although I am not an expert on law, I know that releasing Samaha is rejected by all means,” said Geagea in a Tweet.
“How would I understand that a Lebanese has been released after conspiring with foreign parties to carry out acts of crime and explosions in his own country? What kind of message have the head of the court and the accompanying officers relayed to the Lebanese people after such a decision? What kind of hope and future have they left for the Lebanese and the sovereignty of the country?” asked an angered Geagea. “This is an evil time, but we will not give in and we will do everything in our power to get out of this to a better time!” concluded the LF leader. Later on Thursday, Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri condemned the decision to release Samaha, saying: “The officers' unanimous decision is a gift to the criminal in the name of the law.” “The shameful and suspicious ruling is an award to the criminal and I will not remain silent over this issue,” he added. “At any rate, the Lebanese people have made their judgment against Samaha, saying that he is a criminal, who was caught red-handed,” he noted. “Such criminals deserve just punishment, which was laid down against numerous criminals of Samaha's ilk in the world of organized crime,” remarked the MP. “Today we feel disgusted from the insufficient justice and we are fearful over the security of the Lebanese as long as the doors are open for criminals to escape a just ruling,” lamented Hariri. On that note, he saluted slain Internal Security Forces Intelligence Bureau chief Wissam al-Hassan and "the heroes of the branch, who are performing their duty in protecting Lebanon.” Later on Thursday, Hariri noted that "the first response to this legal heresy must be a draft law to revise the Military Court's jurisdiction." He also said that "those who are defending the criminal are worse criminals," in an apparent response to remarks by Hizbullah MP Mohammed Raad. Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat also condemned the military court's decision, saying: “It is a strong blow to the great work that the security agencies have done and are still doing in combating terrorism.”“The decision encourages crime if not legalizes it,” he added. The Military General Prosecution agreed to release Samaha, who was an information minister from 1992 to 1995, on a 150 million Lebanese pounds bail, but prohibited him from traveling and making statements through various media. Kataeb Party chief Sami Gemayel also commented saying: “The Lebanese judiciary has given a message to terrorists stating that the penalty for drug trafficking and planning to bomb the Lebanese at foreign orders is only three year imprisonment.”Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi denounced Samaha's releases saying:"We are living in a terrible time when criminals are allowed to get away with their crimes."
Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq said: “We will have a response to Samaha's release louder than members of the Syrian regime, who justify killing and bombings, believe.”On the ground, angry protesters took to the streets in Beirut and several areas, blocking roads in Beirut's Qasqas, Barbir, Corniche al-Mazraa, Cite Sportive and Verdun as well as the vital highway between Khalde and Beirut. Protesters also blocked a road in the Tripoli area of Bab al-Tabbaneh. Samaha had been under arrest since August 2012 over allegations that he and Syrian security services chief Ali Mamluk transported explosives and planned attacks and assassinations of political and religious figures in Lebanon. He pleaded guilty on all charges against him during his trial that kicked off in April 2015, admitting that he had transported explosives from Syria for use in attacks in Lebanon. But the former information minister said he had been the victim of entrapment because he was not aware that his co-conspirator was a Lebanese security services informer. He was sentenced in May later that year to four-and-a-half years in prison. Several politicians at the time condemned the light verdict. Syria maintained a nearly 30-year presence in Lebanon, withdrawing its troops in 2005 after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. But a series of assassinations of prominent anti-Syrian regime figures in Lebanon followed the withdrawal. The Lebanese judiciary has issued an arrest warrant for Mamluk and sent Syria a formal notification of the warrant and charges, but received no response.

Michel Samaha granted bail
Now Lebanon/Janauary 14/16/BEIRUT – A former Lebanese minister found guilty of plotting terror attacks in collusion with a Syrian regime figure has been granted bail as his re-trial continues to slowly work its way through the courts. “The Military Court of Cassation has approved a request to release the detainee Michel Samaha on a 150 million Lebanese lira [$100,000] bail,” Lebanon’s state National News Agency reported early Thursday afternoon. ​In May 2015, Lebanon’s military court sentenced Samaha to four-and-a-half years in prison with hard labor after being found of guilty of “trying to carry out terrorist actions and belonging to an armed group.” Samaha was formally indicted in February 2013 alongside Syrian political security chief Ali Mamlouk on charges of “transporting explosives from Syria to Lebanon to assassinate political and religious leaders.”The former tourism and information minister was set to be released from prison by the end of 2015 counting “time served,” as Samaha has been incarcerated since his arrest in August 2012. The military court’s light sentence in May 2015 sparked furor among March 14 protesters as well as Sunni residents in northern Lebanon, who were the planned target of the terror attacks Samaha was coordinating. In June, Lebanon’s Military Court of Cassation accepted an appeal to hold a re-trial of Samaha in-lieu of his short sentence. The re-trial has been be-set by a number of delays, only kicking off on December 17. In his first appearance before the court in his new trial, Samaha claimed he was a victim to entrapment. The next session of the retrial is set to convene next week. As the political furor grew over Samaha’s original sentence, a number of Lebanese TV stations on Thursday night aired excerpts from videos showing him caught plotting terror attacks in a sting operation. Samaha can be seen in the videos speaking with Milad Kfoury, an informant for Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces who the former minister entrusted with explosives and money in return for targeting political and religious figures in northern Lebanon. In one of the videos—which was filmed surreptitiously by the informant—Samaha hands Kfoury a bag filled with $170,000 and asks, “Should I count them?” The former minister also tells Kfoury that he has two explosive devices weighing 20 kilograms each, and adds that detonators have been prepared as well. Samaha can also be heard reassuring Kfoury that only Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his political security chief know about the plot and that the informant will be “100% protected.”In another video, the Lebanese figure states explicitly that the terror plot can target Akkar MP Khaled Daher, his brother, Free Syrian Army officials, and “a gathering of Syrian gunmen at a certain place.”Samaha also expressed his indifference regarding civilian casualties, telling Kfoury in the previous video excerpt that “collateral damage is allowed.”Yet another video shows Samaha handing over explosives to Kfoury in the former’s residence in Beirut’s Ashrafieh quarter.

Military Court Approves Release of Ex-Minister Samaha on Bail
Naharnet/January 14/16/The Military General Prosecution agreed on Thursday to release former Minister Michel Samaha on bail. He will be released from detention on bail of 150 million Lebanese pounds. The military court's decision also prohibits the former minister from traveling and making statements through various media. Samaha's lawyer Sakher Hashem later told Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5): “My client will sleep at his house today.” “The decision to release him cannot be appealed in any way,” he added. Upon his return to his Ashrafieh residence, Samaha said: “I will respect court orders to refrain from making statements.” “My presence in jail was part of politics and I will resume my political career,” he remarked. Samaha's next court date is set for January 21. Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi later condemned the military court's decision, saying that he will "carry out what his national duties demand him to do." Samaha, 67, has been under arrest since August 2012 over allegations that he and Syrian security services chief Ali Mamluk transported explosives and planned attacks and assassinations of political and religious figures in Lebanon. He pleaded guilty all charges against him during his trial that kicked off in April 2015, admitting that he had transported explosives from Syria for use in attacks in Lebanon. But the former information minister said he had been the victim of entrapment because he was not aware that his co-conspirator was a Lebanese security services informer. He was sentenced in May later that year to four-and-a-half years in prison. Several politicians at the time condemned the light verdict. Syria maintained a nearly 30-year presence in Lebanon, withdrawing its troops in 2005 after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. But a series of assassinations of prominent anti-Syrian regime figures in Lebanon followed the withdrawal. The Lebanese judiciary has issued an arrest warrant for Mamluk and sent Syria a formal notification of the warrant and charges, but received no response.

Geagea on Samaha Release: We Don't Want Presidential Vote in State that Behaves This Way
Naharnet/January 14/16/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Gegaea on Thursday slammed the Military Court's decision to release ex-minister Michel Samaha from jail as “a black day in Lebanon's history.”“How can any of us tolerate the ruling that was issued today seeing that Samaha was conspiring with a foreign country?” Geagea said in an interview with MTV. “We do not expect a serious verdict from the same court that issued today's ruling,” he added, in response to a question about the expected future developments in the case.“This ruling is definitely politicized and the political camp to which Samaha belongs played a key role in it,” he said, responding to another question. Asked whether the ruling will affect the ongoing deliberations over the stalled presidential vote, Geagea said: “If the presidential elections will happen in a state that behaves in such a manner then we don't want these elections.” He also called on the March 14 youth organizations to hold peaceful protests on Friday to denounce the court's decision. Earlier in the day, Geagea said the ruling is “rejected by all means.”“Although I am not an expert on law, I know that releasing Samaha is rejected by all means,” said Geagea in a Tweet. “How would I understand that a Lebanese has been released after conspiring with foreign parties to carry out acts of crime and explosions in his own country? What kind of message have the head of the court and the accompanying officers relayed to the Lebanese people after such a decision? What kind of hope and future have they left for the Lebanese and the sovereignty of the country?” asked an angered Geagea. “This is an evil time, but we will not give in and we will do everything in our power to get out of this to a better time!” concluded the LF leader. The ex-minister was arrested in August 2012 and charged with attempting to carry out "terrorist acts" over allegations that he and Syrian security services chief Ali Mamluk transported explosives and planned attacks and assassinations of political and religious figures in Lebanon. Samaha was sentenced in May 2015 to four-and-half years in prison, but in June Lebanon's Cassation Court nullified the verdict and ordered a retrial. Samaha, an ex-adviser to Syrian President Bashar Assad, admitted during his trial that he had transported the explosives from Syria for use in attacks in Lebanon. He however argued he should be acquitted because he was a victim of entrapment by a Lebanese security services informer. Samaha, who was information minister from 1992 to 1995, would be released in exchange for a bail payment of 150 million Lebanese pounds ($100,000), according the text of the judgment.Under his bail conditions, Samaha, 67, would be barred from leaving the country for at least one year, speaking to the press or using social media.

Raad Criticizes 'Malicious, Temperamental' Statements Rejecting Samaha's Release
Naharnet/January 14/16/Hizbullah top lawmaker Mohammed Raad has slammed as “malicious, temperamental and non-objective” the statements that criticized the release on bail on Monday of ex-minister Michel Samaha, who is accused of conspiring with Syrian officials to stage bombings and assassinations in Lebanon. “The furious and systematic statements that today rejected the Lebanese judiciary's decision to release ex-minister Michel Samaha are an expression of distemper, malice and lack of objectivity,” Raad said in a press release. “This has always been their approach in power and in dealing with the judiciary, the administrations and public funds,” he added. “They have never heeded those who object against their injustice, corruption, squandering of public money and abuse of power,” Raad went on to say. Several leaders of the March 14 camp as well as centrist leader MP Walid Jumblat have blasted the Military Court's ruling with ex-PM Saad Hariri describing it as "a violation of the feelings of the majority of the Lebanese."The ex-minister was arrested in August 2012 and charged with attempting to carry out "terrorist acts" over allegations that he and Syrian security services chief Ali Mamluk transported explosives and planned attacks and assassinations of political and religious figures in Lebanon. Samaha was sentenced in May 2015 to four-and-half years in prison, but in June Lebanon's Cassation Court nullified the verdict and ordered a retrial. Samaha, an ex-adviser to Syrian President Bashar Assad, admitted during his trial that he had transported the explosives from Syria for use in attacks in Lebanon. He however argued he should be acquitted because he was a victim of entrapment by a Lebanese security services informer. “The stance of this camp on the Military Court is a temperamental stance that changes according to its interests and it is not at all based on the law,” Raad added. “They were satisfied with the judiciary when it ordered the release of terror suspects and Israeli spies, but today they are venting their anger on it when it decided to free ex-minister Michel Samaha,” the lawmaker said. He stressed that there was “no legal justification” to keep Samaha in custody “after he served the jail term that was issued against him.” “Justice requires a reevaluation of the laws in practice -- which had been passed by those who were behind today's statements – instead of launching cheap attacks against judges and officers who issue rulings in line with the jurisdiction vested in them by the law,” Raad added. Samaha, who was information minister from 1992 to 1995, would be released in exchange for a bail payment of 150 million Lebanese pounds ($100,000), according the text of the judgment. Under his bail conditions, Samaha, 67, would be barred from leaving the country for at least one year, speaking to the press or using social media.

18 Arrested, 4 Injured as Activists Storm Environment Ministry
Naharnet/January 14/16/Demonstrators and security forces scuffled outside the environment ministry in Beirut on Thursday after several civil society activists stormed the building to protest the authorities' failure to resolve the waste problem. Anti-riot police pushed back “We Want Accountability” and “You Stink” protesters who called for more transparency on a plan to export Lebanon's garbage. The protest was held after around 15 members of the two groups entered the Azarieh building in downtown Beirut and sat on the floor, clapping and shouting slogans against the authorities for failing to resolve the seven-month waste problem. The 15 protesters were later arrested by police along with three demonstrators who intercepted the vehicle that was carrying the detainees outside the building. The eighteen activists were taken for questioning, according to an Internal Security Forces statement. Two protesters and two policemen were injured in the scuffles, the ISF said. Last month, the government approved the export of the garbage but the plan drew skepticism. And lately Holland’s Howa BV withdrew its proposal to accept the waste, keeping a single firm, Britain’s Chinook Urban Mining International. Civil society activists stormed the ministry in September, asking for the resignation of the environment minister. The waste crisis erupted in July when Lebanon's largest landfill in Naameh was shut down.

FPM, Hizbullah Boycott Cabinet Session over Appointments Row
Naharnet/January 14/16/The Free Patriotic Movement and Hizbullah boycotted on Thursday a cabinet session after officials failed to strike a deal to meet the request of the FPM on the appointment of top officers. Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil told Prime Minister Tammam Salam that his party's two ministers will boycott the session and that Hizbullah's representatives in the cabinet will also not attend the meeting in solidarity with their allies. As for the Marada movement's minister, Raymond Araiji, he did not attend the session for being abroad. The agenda of the session did not include controversial items, the majority of which were adopted after the 18 ministers guaranteed the necessary quorum of the 24-member cabinet. Information Minister Ramzi Jreij said following the session that Salam urged ministers to steer the cabinet clear of their differences. “We know there are many differences among political parties but the government … should be allowed to manage the country's and people's affairs,” Salam said. He had earlier said that he would not reject any discussion on the appointments in the military council if his deputy Defense Minister Samir Moqbel proposes the issue. Salam told his visitors that he gives his blessing to any agreement reached among the different political parties represented in the government. He denied that he intends to obstruct any plan. Bassil told Salam that his party does not have objections to the agenda. But that it is awaiting the approval of appointments in the next session. The government met late in 2015 to approve a plan to export Lebanon's waste. Its last meeting was in September. The FPM's demand for the appointment of top military and security officials and its call for changing the decision-making mechanism of the cabinet in the absence of a president have led to a paralysis.

Gemayel Urges 'Consensual President': We Won't Elect Our Rival
Naharnet/January 14/16/Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel stressed Thursday that Lebanon's next president must be “consensual” and not a member of one of the rival political camps. “We need a consensual president who would neutralize Lebanon from the conflicts in the region and common sense says that the president must play a centrist role,” said Gemayel in an interview with LBCI television. “We will not elect our rival,” he emphasized, warning that a partisan president would lead to the country's “destruction” amid the Sunni-Shiite conflict in the region. Asked about ex-PM Saad Hariri's nomination of MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency, Gemayel noted that the Marada Movement chief “still has a chance to move to the middle.”Franjieh “must believe in neutralizing Lebanon from the regional conflict and he must not represent a regional axis or have extraordinary ties with it” in order to win Kataeb's support, Gemayel pointed out. Turning to the dispute over cabinet sessions, the Kataeb chief underlined that “there is no justification to boycott cabinet sessions or to fail to call it to session,” referring to Hizbullah, the Free Patriotic Movement and Prime Minister Tammam Salam. As for the controversial release on bail of ex-minister Michel Samaha, Gemayel said “all emergency courts are rejected in a country that claims to respect democracy.”“Emergency courts must not exist, especially the Military Court,” he added.The ex-minister was arrested in August 2012 and charged with attempting to carry out "terrorist acts" over allegations that he and Syrian security services chief Ali Mamluk transported explosives and planned attacks and assassinations of political and religious figures in Lebanon. Samaha was sentenced in May 2015 to four-and-half years in prison, but in June Lebanon's Cassation Court nullified the verdict and ordered a retrial. Samaha, an ex-adviser to Syrian President Bashar Assad, admitted during his trial that he had transported the explosives from Syria for use in attacks in Lebanon. He however argued he should be acquitted because he was a victim of entrapment by a Lebanese security services informer.

Lebanese Army Arrests Human Smuggling Rings
Naharnet/January 14/16/The Lebanese army said Thursday that it broke up two rings of human smugglers whose members were helping migrants enter Europe by sea. An army communique said intelligence agents arrested Mustafa Mohammed Kalseena, a Lebanese, and Palestinian Khaled Taleb al-Naamani, who were plotting to help people make their way to Europe. Kalseena was arrested in October last year on the same charges. The boat that he was using to smuggle people was also confiscated, it said. The military intelligence also arrested Palestinian Suleiman Ahmed Zaarour who was plotting as part of another ring to help people flee the country, said the communique. The army found in the possession of the suspects around 29,000 dollars and LL25 million in addition to the lists of names they were planning to smuggle through Lebanon's northern coast, it added.The suspects are being questioned under the supervision of the judiciary.

Report: Berri Against Exporting Lebanon's Waste
Naharnet/January 14/16/Speaker Nabih Berri seems to be a non-supporter of a plan to export Lebanon's waste as he stressed on Thursday that the trash should be dumped in the coastal area of Costa Brava and Srar in Akkar, al-Joumhouria daily reported. Berri said that the trash generated from the southern suburbs of Beirut should be taken to the Costa Brava landfill and that of Beirut to Srar, the daily added. He suggested that the hazardous dumpster of Costa Brava should be converted into an environment friendly facility and the capacity of Srar should be expanded to receive additional quantities. Furthermore the piles of trash sent to Sidon landfill should be increased to receive trash from Mount Lebanon and Beirut in addition to activating the Karantina waste treatment facility. Two firms that agreed to export Lebanon's trash, Britain’s Chinook Urban Mining International and Holland’s Howa BV, were brought down to one after Howa's announced withdrawal. Lebanon was plunged in a waste management crisis following the closure in July of the Naameh landfill. Officials have for months failed to find an alternative to the dump, resulting in the accumulation of trash on the streets throughout the country. The cabinet in December approved the export of the waste despite reservations of the Kataeb and Change and Reform blocs.

Lebanese Army Hunts Fugitives in Baalbek, 1 Dead
Naharnet/January 14/16/The Lebanese army carried out raids early Thursday in the neighborhood of Sharawneh in the eastern city of Baalbek in search for outlaws. The state-run National News Agency said the military clashed with gunmen during the raids. It said Mohammed Wehbi, 60, was killed from a stray bullet as a result of the clashes. The military brought in reinforcements from the Sheikh Abdullah barracks in Baalbek and expanded its deployment near the Sharawneh neighborhood, it added. The army has on numerous occasions clashed with gunmen from the Jaafar clan in Sharawneh.

Exclusive footage and images from Bennesbeh Labokra Chou?
Ranya Radwan/Now Lebanon/January 14/16
In an exclusive interview (below), Boutros Farah (Monsieur Antoine) and Rafik Najem (Najib) share their experiences of performing in the theatrical production in 1978. Hundreds of people attended the official premiere of the original Ziad Rahbani play “Bennesbeh Labokra Chou?” in Beirut last night. Among the attendees were political figures, actors, activists and several of the performers from the play. The overwhelming excitement from the crowd mingling before the screening is indescribable. The motion picture, which consists of original footage of several theatrical performances captured over 35 years ago, brings back to life a treasured piece of Lebanese culture. It allows the older Lebanese generations to re-experience the powerfully nostalgic play that takes them back to a time when the Lebanon they knew ceased to exist. As for the younger generations, the film not only allows them to put faces to the familiar voices they grew up listening to on the radio, but they also have the chance to compare and reconstruct the scenes they imagined in their minds. Of course, all this would not have been possible if it hadn’t been for the dedication and hard work of the team at NOW’s sister company, M Media. Over the past three years, the people at M Media worked vigorously on restoring and editing the material— while preserving the authentic nature of the footage— to give us the incredible opportunity to see firsthand a legendary masterpiece by one of Lebanon’s most talented musical figures.
After the screening of the film, I had the immense privilege of meeting and speaking to Ghazaros Altonian (‘Khawaja’ Adnan) and Rafik Najem (Najib), both of whom acted in the original play. Altonian’s family had never seen the play and they were absolutely captivated by the film.
"Bennesbeh Labokra Chou?" will be in theaters across Lebanon on January 21, 2016.

Lebanon's loyalties exposed
Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/January 14/16
How much longer will we fool ourselves that Lebanon’s loyalties rest with the Arab world? During a recent Arab League emergency meeting of foreign ministers, called by Saudi Arabia to discuss measures to be taken against Iran’s “terrorist acts” and its aggression against the kingdom, it was clear that Beirut stood with the enemy. Ignoring the call by the League’s Secretary General Nabil el-Araby for all “to adopt a strong and clear position calling on Iran to stop all forms of interference in the affairs of Arab nations,” Lebanon abstained from voting on a resolution denouncing Iran’s threatening actions that was supported by all other member states. Beirut’s failure to stand shoulder to shoulder with its Arab brothers proves that its independence has been squashed under the Iranian boot. This sorry state of affairs was well known, but now that Lebanon has taken sides, there is no room for doubt.
The Arab League statement is to be followed up by the formation of a committee to include representatives from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt - countries that have either severed or downgraded relations with Iran - tasked with monitoring the crisis and proposing further measures against Tehran if necessary. Riyadh will also hold talk with its Arab allies on future steps.
I would call on Riyadh not to throw any more money Lebanon’s way, which could easily end up fattening Hezbollah’s pockets. The Arab League should reconsider Lebanon’s membership until the country is ready to pledge which side of the fence it is truly on. I was shocked and disappointed to learn of the Lebanese stance, apparently prompted by the statement’s admonition of Iran’s Lebanese proxy Hezbollah over its blatant interference in Bahrain’s domestic affairs. “The statement that was made with regard to Bahrain does not reflect the position and the policy of the Lebanese government, nor that of the political party [the Free Patriotic Movement] I represent,” said Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Gibran Bassil. Why some Maronite Christians are hand-in-glove with Iran’s puppet is beyond my understanding, unless their motive is to feather their own nests. “Lebanon’s implicit position does not differ from that of the Arab states in their statement regarding non-interference in the affairs of Bahrain. However, the statement that was made was against Lebanon or a certain Lebanese party, which I certainly rejected,” said Bassil, who previously held ministerial posts in the cabinets of March 14 leaders Fouad Siniora and Saad Hariri.
Bassil poured salt on the treacherous wound, adding that “the statement was issued in contradiction with the principles of the Arab League and its charter, but we did not want to raise this point since we do not want to cause problems with any Arab state.” How considerate of him! The truth is that any suggestion of impropriety from him would have been shot down by all other member states, and he knows that.
Arab aid
He grumbled that promised Arab aid had yet to materialize. In other words, he slaps Lebanon’s traditional Arab benefactors, while expecting those states to prop up a paralyzed government unable to cleanse the country from mountains of rotting garbage, a parliament that has failed to agree on a new president in over 18 months, and an ineffective army dominated by Shiite militias with billions of dollars. In 2014, Riyadh gifted the Lebanese army $1 billion, and April last year marked the first delivery of French-made weapons and military equipment under a $3 billion Saudi grant to re-establish “a Lebanese army capable of responding to new security realities.”In my view, Lebanon’s army is in greater need of patriotism than weapons. Just as the political arena has stopped functioning due to Hezbollah’s blackmail, the infiltrated military machine has Hezbollah’s cog in its wheel, preventing it from doing its job. No amount of cash can buy love of country from those with a mandate to defend it from hostile entities, whether from outside or within. It is true that Lebanon is financially burdened by a massive influx of Syrian refugees, in addition to hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. However, if Hezbollah and its Iranian master had not thrown their backing behind Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, his criminal regime might have collapsed years ago when there was a viable opposition waiting in the wings to form a caretaker government as a prelude to elections.
Interference
Hezbollah’s military involvement in Syria has nothing to do with securing Lebanese interests, but is carried out on command from Iran’s ayatollahs. Hezbollah is contributing to the mass displacement of the Syrian people fleeing regime bombs, and for making Lebanon a target of terrorist groups.
Bassil says Lebanon has a policy of non-interference in the affairs of other countries. If so, it is not worth the paper it is written on when the militia he defends did not think twice about tearing it up to serve its masters. Hariri, head of the Future Movement, expressed his regret over his country’s abstention. A statement released by his press office read: “The abstention of Lebanon’s Foreign Minister to vote on the Arab League’s resolution does not reflect the opinion of the majority of the Lebanese who are suffering from the Iran interference in their internal affairs.” I believe Hariri. I have many Lebanese friends, and almost all would celebrate the day Hezbollah disappeared. They variously refer to themselves as Arabs or Levantines, certainly not Persians. Most Lebanese I know are passionate about their country, but sadly the political and military establishments continue to thwart their ambitions of seeing Lebanon bloom, as it did in its glory days during the 1950s, 60s and early 70s before civil war halted its progress. Let the good Lebanese stand up with courage and fortitude to ask for help in chopping the Iranian hand that strangles their children’s future. In the meantime, I would call on Riyadh not to throw any more money Lebanon’s way, which could easily end up fattening Hezbollah’s pockets. Moreover, the Arab League should reconsider Lebanon’s membership until the country is ready to pledge which side of the fence it is truly on.


How rivals would react if Geagea supports Aoun’s candidacy
Hasan Lakkis| The Daily Star/January 14/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/01/14/hasan-lakkisthe-daily-star-how-rivals-would-react-if-geagea-supports-aouns-candidacy/
Officials on both sides of the political spectrum are bracing themselves for the possibility of Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea declaring his support for MP Michel Aoun’s candidacy for the presidency against MP Sleiman Frangieh’s bid, which is backed by the Future Movement and some regional and international powers.
Sources in both the LF and the Free Patriotic Movement said efforts are underway to arrange a meeting between Aoun and Geagea at the latter’s residence in Maarab during which the LF chief would announce his endorsement of the FPM founder’s candidacy for the country’s top Christian post.
Political circles asked how various political parties would react to such an event which is bound to send shockwaves across the country, where Parliament has failed to elect a new president since April 2014 due to a lack of quorum and sharp differences between the March 8 and March 14 camps over who should be the next head of state.
In weighing possible reactions to Geagea’s endorsement of Aoun’s presidential candidacy, political sources said that such a move would evoke satisfaction in Christian areas as was manifested in comments made by supporters of the LF and FPM and also by some neutral Christian factions.
“The Christian popular base will be satisfied because such a development will dispel traditional fears between the Aounists and the LF and reflect positively within the ranks of students, universities, unions and other organizations,” the sources said.
The sources said that the influential Catholic Maronite Church would not be able to stand against Aoun’s candidacy, even though it would not declare a clear position, but would cover it by welcoming any rapprochement among the Christians.
In sharp contrast, Geagea’s support for Aoun’s candidacy will not be welcomed by the Kataeb Party, the sources said, adding that the Kataeb will always be skeptical about the continuation of agreement between the Aounists and the LF.
The sources said Christian independents would react negatively to Geagea’s decision to back Aoun’s presidential bid, but without taking any escalatory steps. However, the independent team will be worried about its political future because a Geagea-Aoun alliance will be applied to parliamentary and municipal electoral tickets, the sources said.
Yet, the strongest reactions will definitely come from Frangieh who will seriously feel that if his rival, Aoun, wins the presidency, he will restrict the Marada Movement leader’s capability to spread in the north by keeping him confined in Zghorta and Ehden, the sources said.
At the Muslim level, the sources said that by supporting Aoun’s candidacy, Geagea would embarrass former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who had told Aoun during their meeting in Paris last year that if the LF backed him for the presidency, he [Hariri] would do the same.
The sources noted that Hezbollah will be the party embarrassed most by Geagea’s support for Aoun’s candidacy.
While Hezbollah wants to see Aoun elected president, it will not be happy with a Geagea-Aoun alliance in the future, they said.
Declaration of Geagea’s support for Aoun’s presidential bid still needs further consultations, according to LF and FPM sources. But if it happens, it will present Arab and international capitals interested in Lebanon with the following equation: Aoun gets support for his candidacy from the Hezbollah-led March 8 alliance and a key faction [LF] of the March 14 coalition, while Frangieh wins March 14 backing [the Future Movement], without getting support from his allies in the March 8 bloc.
Under the same equation, Aoun will get support from the majority of Christians and a good section of Muslims, while Frangieh will win only the backing of Sunnis and a minority of Christians that does not exceed 25 percent, the political sources said.
However, the sources pointed out that any understanding between two sides or two leaders in Lebanon on a presidential candidate cannot be attained in the absence of a regional and international understanding, namely between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Washington. They added that an understanding between Aoun and Geagea is capable of obstructing the presidential election, but is unable to impose a president.
The creation of a broad-based Christian political front following Geagea’s declaration of his support for Aoun’s presidential candidacy is ruled out, the sources said. “But this does not mean that the alliance between them will be strong and effective, while waiting to see what shape the relationship between the LF and Saudi Arabia will take,” the sources said.

Lazzarini to place Lebanon’s needs as top priority on global agenda
Madonna Semaan/Al-Monitor/January 15/16
Philippe Lazzarini, who serves as the resident and humanitarian coordinator and as the UN Development Program (UNDP) resident representative in the Office of the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL), took office months ago in the midst of the Syrian crisis, but his main concern is not only the state of emergency imposed by the displacement. He is keen not to lose sight of his duties, not only in terms of coordination, but also in achieving all of the UN activities that can be undertaken to serve this small country.
He said his mandate will be based on two goals: to eliminate the gap and build bridges between the temporary relief operations of the displaced Syrians on the one hand, and to develop long-term plans that ensure decent living standards for the Syrians as well as the host communities, on the other.
Lazzarini believes that handling this crisis based on a state of emergency perspective could put the displaced at risk of losing their sources of livelihood. This indeed happened about a year ago when the World Food Program’s grants stopped due to what was described as donor fatigue.
“This was unmerciful and unfair toward the displaced themselves and the host countries,” Lazzarini said.
A goal he puts forward at international forums is placing Lebanon’s needs among the priorities of the global agenda. Lazzarini explained that the whole world is seeing how Lebanon is coping with the different developments on the economic, social and security levels.
However, Lazzarini personally believes this is dangerous since Lebanon's ability to cope with different situations is bound to fade at some point, and by then it would be too late.
“I will urge the international community to help this country. Waiting around and testing the Lebanese ability to adapt to the situation does not serve anyone’s interests," he said.
He recalled that the UN organizations have been present in Lebanon for over 60 years to help the country overcome internal and external crises, and they continue to do so. He referred to the UNDP’s recent contribution, where it offered Lebanon consultancy services for a solution to its trash crisis.
Although Lazzarini notes Lebanon is fragile in light of the crises in neighboring countries, he believes the country’s stability and economy must be boosted by improving negative indicators.
Lebanon’s plan to respond to the crisis
Lazzarini is pinning all of his hopes on Lebanon’s plan to respond to the crisis — the government had drafted the first version of this plan a year ago and the second version about a month ago — considering it an essential formula that will help Lebanon address the displacement crisis.
He said that with the outbreak of the crisis the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) quickly responded and the international community intervened to provide relief for the displaced, disregarding the needs of the host community. However, as the crisis persisted, it became necessary to address the issue in a more comprehensive manner and through a long-term vision to ensure relief in tandem with the development of the host country.
While some see certain faults in the plan's implementation — especially because the first version only received 50% of the needed financing — Lazzarini believes otherwise. He explained that when the plan was first put forward in 2014, it was launched by the end of that year as a two-year action strategy, but donor companies were asked to provide $2.1 billion to finance the plan for one year.
The plan received $1.1 billion, which is quite a large amount compared with the financing of major crises, according to Lazzarini, who also acknowledged that this amount is not enough to offer relief and to support host communities.
Lazzarini’s optimism about this plan stems from two sources: the first is the dialogue with the government and members of the international community to develop plans to respond to the crisis, and the second is the search for new financing means to support Lebanon, a matter that will be discussed in early February during the donors conference in London, which will focus on the needs of Syria and the surrounding countries as well as long-term support plans. The conference will also discuss Lebanon’s and Jordan’s experiences in terms of education and providing employment opportunities for the displaced.
Optimism, but …
What if the donor fatigue persists? Lazzarini stressed that donor fatigue will no longer exist, especially since Syrians took refuge in Europe and those working for relief organizations will always remind the donor countries that there is no more room for fatigue.
He also pointed out that financing for relief plans had increased when refugees headed to Europe in September, saying, “We always remind donors that the crisis will not end overnight even if a political solution was found. It is necessary to help the displaced to build their capabilities, either through financing plans or by hosting a number of them. It has become certain that the further we look, the safest it becomes to treat issues. The money used in a state of emergency has limited objectives and we have asked for $20 billion to deal with the overall crisis, but we only received $10 billion.”
Lazzarini added, “Despite our intervention, poverty rates have increased instead of declined, and debt levels have risen among the displaced. We started seeing very negative social phenomena such as child marriage and child labor, in addition to people dying every day while attempting to cross the sea to reach Europe. This is why we need adequate financing to address the crisis and support host communities. We tried to help host communities by supporting about 250 of the poorest municipalities that sank deep after hosting 80% of the displaced people.”
Lazzarini does not believe the Syrian crisis is the only crisis lying in store. He thinks the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) should anticipate future crises, although its current crises are structural since it has been providing aid to Palestinians for a long time. He noted that if it were not for the tireless efforts exerted by UNRWA officials last year, the crisis would have kept students out of school.
He does not believe donor countries were punishing Lebanon, as Lebanese Prime Minister Tammam Salam had implied when launching the second version of Lebanon’s plan to respond to the crisis. He stressed that Lebanon received the same financing ratio obtained by Jordan, “if not a better one.” But he estimated that Salam may have alluded to the donor countries’ direct donations to Lebanon, which seemed stalled for two main reasons, according to Lazzarini. The first is the political crisis and the paralysis of the government that betrayed the confidence of donors, and the second is that the government did not approve the amount allocated by the World Bank, simply because it did not hold a Cabinet session.
Lazzarini, who is rationally optimistic, said that a mechanism is starting to emerge for the first time to develop a framework for a political solution in Syria, and that the UN Security Council agreed on a framework for action, “which is bound to be fruitful should a cease-fire be established.” He stressed that only a political solution can guarantee the Syrians’ return to their homeland, but until then, the issue should be taken seriously in order to provide a decent living for the displaced while ensuring the development of host communities.
Published Beirut, Lebanon Established 1974

Canada Condemns Attacks in Jakarta
January 14, 2016 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement concerning a series of attacks in Jakarta, Indonesia:
“Canada strongly condemns today’s attacks on innocent civilians in Jakarta, Indonesia.
“On behalf of all Canadians, I offer my heartfelt condolences to the families and friends of the victims and wish a speedy recovery to the wounded.
“We are aware of reports that a Canadian may have been among the victims. The Government of Canada, in collaboration with Indonesian authorities, is attempting to confirm the identity of this person.
“Canada will continue to stand by Indonesia and cooperate in the fight against extremism. We offer our full support to the Indonesian authorities during this challenging time.”
Canadian citizens in Indonesia requiring emergency consular assistance should contact the Canadian embassy in Jakarta at +62 21 2550 7800 or call the Global Affairs Canada 24/7 Emergency Watch and Response Centre collect at +1 613 996 8885. An email can also be sent to sos@international.gc.ca.

IS-Linked Suicide Attackers Hit Indonesian Capital
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 14/16/Islamic State-linked suicide attackers struck the capital of Muslim-majority Indonesia Thursday, executing a Westerner and blowing up a Starbucks, police said. Five extremists launched what police said were Paris-style attacks as they detonated explosives and shot at people in a district packed with malls, embassies and United Nations offices.
The assault also left an Indonesian man dead and 20 other people injured, and a police post destroyed, in what the country's president called "acts of terror".
"Their network has links to ISIS in Raqqa," said Jakarta police chief Tito Karnavian, referring to the IS group's stronghold in Syria. The claim of IS involvement will send a chill through Indonesia and other parts of Southeast Asia with Muslim populations, where there are fears extremists bloodied on Middle Eastern battlefields could have brought their jihad home. Police said the five-strong cell who struck Thursday included three suicide bombers who initially targeted a Starbucks near a major shopping mall. After the first explosion, men armed with pistols took two men hostage. Police identified them as an Algerian and a Westerner, although there were conflicting reports about whether he was Canadian or Dutch. National police spokesman Anton Charliyan said the Algerian managed to escape with bullet wounds, but the second man was shot dead on the spot, while an Indonesian man who had tried to help the hostages was also shot and killed. "Soon afterwards, two men riding.... motorbikes, ran into a police post and blew themselves up," he said, adding four officers had been left in a critical condition. "From what we see today, this group is following the pattern of the Paris attacks." IS gunmen killed 130 people in a series of coordinated attacks on the French capital in November.
Witnesses said the gunman who emerged from Starbucks began firing at bystanders, reloading his weapon as security forces moved in behind the cover of moving vehicles. "I heard a loud bang, boom. It felt like an earthquake. We all went downstairs," said Ruli Koestaman, 32, who had been in a nearby building when the attack started mid-morning. "We then saw that the Starbucks downstairs was destroyed too. I saw a foreigner -- westerner, a man -- with a mangled hand but alive. "A Starbucks waiter then ran out with blood coming out of his ear. And I asked anyone hurt inside, he said yes, one. Dead already.
"Then everybody gathered and a terrorist appeared. He had a gun and started shooting at us and then at Starbucks. Then the police post... exploded."
Graphic photographs from the scene showed the bloodied bodies of what appeared to be two men in civilian clothes lying by the side of a road next to the wrecked police post. Another body, also apparently male, was pictured lying on his back in the center of the street while a fourth, almost naked, lay nearby.
Jakarta police chief Karnavian said bombs containing screws and nails were hurled at police during the shootout, and they found six bombs planted in the area after the assault had ended. Starbucks said it was shuttering all branches in the Indonesian capital in response to the attack.
"This store and all other Starbucks stores in Jakarta will remain closed, out of an abundance of caution, until further notice," a statement said. The area is home to several embassies, including those of the United States, France and Spain. A number of United Nations agencies are also housed nearby. The U.N. Environment Program said a married Dutch employee had been seriously hurt in the attacks and remained in a critical condition. Britain, Australia and the U.S. advised their nationals to avoid the area. The U.S. said its embassy would be partially closed on Friday. Indonesian President Joko Widodo urged people to remain calm. "Our nation and our people should not be afraid, we will not be defeated by these acts of terror," he said, in comments broadcast by MetroTV.
"We also condemn the act that has disturbed the security and peace and spread terror among our people."Indonesia suffered several major bomb attacks by Islamic radicals between 2000 and 2009, including the 2002 strike on the resort island of Bali that killed 202 people. A security crackdown weakened the most dangerous networks, leading to a long lull in large-scale strikes.
But the New York-based Soufan Group says that of the 500-700 Indonesians who traveled abroad to join the self-proclaimed caliphate of the IS, scores have since returned.
"We know that ISIS has the desire to declare a province in this region," said Kumar Ramakrishna, a counter-terrorism analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore."The threat of returning Southeast Asian fighters radicalized in the Iraq/Syria region (is) another factor of concern."
An-IS linked news agency, citing an unidentified source, said that the attack was carried out by IS fighters but there was no immediate claim of responsibility from the group itself. Regional terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna said the assault bore the hallmarks of the Islamic State group. "The only group that has the capability and the intention to mount coordinated, simultaneous attacks in Jakarta is the ISIS network," he told AFP in Singapore.

Regime Forces Approach IS Bastion in Aleppo
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 14/16/Syrian regime forces on Thursday edged closer to an Islamic State group bastion in the northern province of Aleppo, capturing a nearby town, a monitor said. Backed by intense Russian air strikes, fighters loyal to President Bashar Assad seized Aarran from IS jihadists, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The town lies just 10 kilometers (six miles) south of the IS stronghold of al-Bab. "Regime forces are combing the town. There are some light clashes, but it is under government control," said Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman.
"This is the closest the government has been to al-Bab since 2012," he told AFP. Roughly 30 kilometers (25 miles) south of the Turkish border, al-Bab fell into rebel hands in July 2012, and IS jihadists captured it in late 2013. Government forces are trying to cut off IS territory in Aleppo province from the group's stronghold in Raqa further east, Abdel Rahman said. Raqa is the de facto Syrian capital of IS' self-styled "caliphate", which straddles Syrian and Iraqi territory. The Aleppo offensive is part of a series of ground operations across the country backed by Assad's ally Russia, which began air strikes in Syria on September 30. According to Abdel Rahman, at least 63 IS fighters have been killed in Russian raids in the Al-Bab region since Saturday. More than 260,000 people have been killed in Syria's conflict, which broke out in March 2011 with anti-government protests that spiraled into a multi-sided civil war.

Ban Says Syria Sieges War Crime as Western Powers Call Security Council Meeting
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 14/16/U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned Thursday that the use of starvation as a weapon in Syria was a war crime after aid workers were able to deliver food to residents in famine-struck Madaya. "Let me be clear: the use of starvation as a weapon of war is a war crime," Ban told reporters. "All sides -- including the Syrian government which has the primary responsibility to protect Syrians -- are committing this and other atrocious acts prohibited under international humanitarian law," he said. Ban spoke after a second convoy carrying food and other necessities entered Madaya on Thursday where residents told AFP they had been surviving on soup from boiled grass. On Monday, a first convoy reached Madaya, where Syrian forces have laid siege for the past six months, and truckloads of aid also entered two other towns blockaded by rebel groups. France, Britain and the United States called for an emergency meeting of the Security Council to press demands for an end to sieges ahead of peace talks planned for January 25 in Geneva. French Ambassador Francois Delattre told AFP that the meeting, expected to be held on Friday, "will draw the world's attention to the humanitarian tragedy that is unfolding in Madaya and in other towns in Syria." The United Nations is struggling to deliver aid to about 4.5 million Syrians who live in hard-to-reach areas, including nearly 400,000 people in besieged areas.
Worse than hostages
Ban said Syrians living under siege were "being held hostage", but added that their plight was even worse: "Hostages get fed.""These children and women and men are struggling to survive without food or medicine," he said. Humanitarian aid access is seen as a key confidence-building measure ahead of new round of Syrian peace talks. Diplomats suggested that the talks would have no chance of success if the humanitarian crisis remains desperate. "It will be difficult for them to negotiate while their children and close ones are threatened with famine or death," said a Security Council diplomat. The U.N. envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, said Wednesday that the permanent Security Council members -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- had pledged to take "immediate action" to push for deliveries of aid to besieged areas. The Security Council has adopted resolutions demanding an end to the sieges, but these have been largely ignored. U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein, speaking in Qatar, said that those responsible for the starvation sieges should face justice. "Should there be prosecutions? Of course, that should be the case. At the very least there should be accountability for these crimes."

New Aid Convoy Enters Hunger-Stricken Syrian Town

Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 14/16/A convoy carrying food and other desperately needed aid entered Syria's besieged Madaya on Thursday, as U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon warned that using starvation as a weapon was a war crime. At the United Nations in New York, Western powers called for the U.N. Security Council to meet on Friday in order to expedite deliveries of life-saving supplies to Madaya and two other Syrian towns. White trucks emblazoned with the logo of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent entered Madaya -- where the U.N. says suffering is the worst seen in Syria's nearly five-year war -- late on Thursday afternoon, an AFP reporter said. The town's 40,000 residents have endured a crippling siege by pro-government forces that has drawn sharp condemnation from the international community. More than two dozen people have reportedly starved to death since December, and Ban warned that any side using starvation as a weapon in the conflict would be committing a "war crime.""All sides -- including the Syrian government which has the primary responsibility to protect Syrians -- are committing this and other atrocious acts prohibited under international humanitarian law," Ban told reporters.
A spokesman for the International Committee of the Red Cross said 44 aid trucks carrying food and other supplies entered Madaya, adding that a separate convoy of 17 trucks to the northwestern rebel-encircled towns of Fuaa and Kafraya reached their destinations. "The priority is wheat flour and washing materials," Pawel Krzysiek told AFP.
'This cannot go on'
"All trucks finally reach Madaya Fuaa Kafraya. Our teams now talk to people to better understand the situation," the ICRC's Syria account tweeted. Thursday's delivery to Madaya follows one on Monday that was the first humanitarian assistance received by the town in nearly four months. In a statement, the ICRC's top official in Syria, Marianne Gasser, said Madaya's suffering was "heartbreaking." "People are desperate. Food is in extremely short supply. It is the elderly, women and children who are suffering the most, especially from severe malnourishment... This cannot go on," Gasser said.
The U.N.'s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said a third delivery to the towns would take place "in the following days". "We do not want to see this as a one-off," the U.N.'s humanitarian coordinator for Syria, Yacoub El Hillo, told reporters. "Ultimately the real solution to this predicament, to the plight of the people besieged in these towns, is for the siege to be lifted." The World Health Organization said only one of its nutritionists was able to enter the town on Thursday. "We're going to evaluate the situation, treat people there and examine the severity of their condition and see what the next step is," WHO spokeswoman Rana Sidani said. The U.N. has called for nearly 400 Madaya residents who need immediate medical care to be evacuated.
Lavrov-Kerry meeting set
Madaya, the nearby opposition-held town of Zabadani, as well as Fuaa and Kafraya, are part of a landmark U.N.-brokered truce deal between rebels and regime fighters reached in September. OCHA spokeswoman Linda Tom said aid agencies had made several requests to also access Zabadani but had yet to receive authorization. "The humanitarian community stands ready to deliver there in the course of the coming days as soon as it is approved," she told AFP by email. Paris, London and Washington called for an emergency Security Council session on Friday to "draw the world's attention to the humanitarian tragedy that is unfolding in Madaya and in other towns in Syria," according to France's U.N. ambassador Francois Delattre. The Syrian government and the U.N. have championed localized ceasefire deals as a way to end fighting across Syria, where more than 260,000 people have been killed since 2011. Delattre said diplomatic and aid work in getting supplies into Madaya and other towns had helped to "create more favorable conditions for a resumption" of peace talks. A new round of Syrian negotiations is planned for January 25 in Geneva, but there are fears a diplomatic row between Iran and Saudi Arabia, who back opposing sides in the war, could derail the process. Russia said Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov would meet in Zurich with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on January 20 to discuss peace efforts.

Netanyahu Slams 'Stupid' Swedish Minister's Probe Call
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 14/16/Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday slammed what he called "stupid" and "immoral" remarks of Sweden's top diplomat, who has demanded investigations into the killing of Palestinians by Israeli forces. Margot Wallstrom had on Tuesday called for "thorough and credible investigations" into the deaths of Palestinians killed by Israeli forces in the wave of violence raging since October. "I think what the Swedish foreign minister said is outrageous, I think it's immoral, it's unjust and it's just wrong," Netanyahu told members of the foreign press. "It's outrageous, it's immoral and it's stupid," he said, taking care to avoid endorsing accusations of anti-Semitism made by some Israeli officials. "The other day in Paris a knife-wielding terrorist was shot to death, is that extrajudicial killing? Does the Swedish foreign minister suggest that there be examinations of what happened there in Paris," he asked. Israel and the Palestinian territories have seen a wave of Palestinian attacks in recent months, with 23 Israelis killed since October 1. Over the same time period, 152 Palestinians have been killed, most of them while carrying out attacks on Israeli civilians or security forces. Netanyahu also addressed the situation of French Jews, after a string of anti-Semitic events in recent months brought Marseille's top Jewish leader to call on men and boys to stop wearing a kippa.Zvi Ammar's remarks regarding skullcaps came a day after a Turkish teen had attacked a Jew with a machete. "I think that they have a right," Netanyahu said. "That's a principle that has been said very forcefully by President (Francois) Hollande and Prime Minister (Manuel) Valls, but as far as the specific choice, that is an individual choice. "I think that every Jew anywhere should be able to live safely and to enjoy the protection of the authorities. I commend the government of France and other governments in Europe who are taking a forceful stance on this issue," Netanyahu said. "At the same time every Jew should know that they have a home in Israel and that's a choice that each one of them then makes," the Israeli premier said.

Lavrov and Kerry to Meet in Zurich on January 20 for Syria Talks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 14/16/Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and United States Secretary of State John Kerry have agreed to meet in Zurich on January 20 for talks on Syria and Ukraine, the Russian foreign ministry said Thursday. During a telephone call, "Lavrov and Kerry agreed to hold a personal meeting on January 20 in Zurich," the ministry said in a statement. The foreign affairs chiefs in their conversation "continued examining ways to resolve the Syrian crisis and the conflict in Ukraine," the ministry said. It said Kerry and Lavrov were talking "on the instructions of the Russian and U.S. presidents" after Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama spoke by telephone on Wednesday about the crises in Syria and Ukraine. Putin and Obama discussed the "effort to try to bring about a political transition inside of Syria," said White House spokesman Josh Earnest. "Both the United States and Russia have a vested interest in seeing that occur." The United Nations envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, said Wednesday that the permanent Security Council members -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- had pledged to take "immediate action" to push for deliveries of aid to besieged areas of Syria. In December, the U.N. Security Council unanimously adopted a resolution endorsing a peace process to end the nearly five-year war in Syria, without touching on the contentious issue of the fate of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Putin and Obama, while speaking on Wednesday, also "spent a significant portion of their time discussing the need for the Russians to live up to the commitments that they made in Minsk -- to end their support for separatists that are destabilizing Ukraine right now," said Earnest.

Egypt Extends Mandate in Saudi-led Yemen Coalition
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 14/16/Egypt said on Thursday that it would extend for one year its support for Saudi-led coalition forces battling rebels in Yemen. "The National Defense Council agreed to prolong the participation of its armed forces engaged in a combat mission in the Gulf, the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait," a statement from the office of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said. Egypt, the Arab world's most populous nation, has taken part in coalition raids on Iran-backed rebels since March, after the insurgents swept across much of impoverished Yemen.Extending operations was important "for the period of one year or until the end of the mission," the statement said. Sisi has in the past sought to justify Egypt's involvement in Yemen's war as necessary in order to secure Red Sea shipping routes including the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait, through which much of Suez Canal traffic travels. More than 5,800 people have been killed in Yemen since the start of a Saudi-led bombing campaign against rebels, about half of them civilians, according to the United Nations.

Kerry and Saudi FM Meet to Soothe Frayed Ties
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 14/16/U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir insisted Thursday that their countries' ties remain strong despite recent tensions over Washington's outreach to Iran. The top envoys met in London for talks on a variety of Middle East issues, including the wars in Syria and Yemen and the imminent implementation of the Iran nuclear deal. Washington has used the deal, under which Tehran agreed to limit its nuclear ambitions in exchange for a softening on sanctions, as a springboard to seek more productive ties with its old foe. But at the same time Riyadh's relations with Iran, long hostile, have plunged to new lows. Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic contact with Tehran last week after an Iranian mob ransacked its embassy there. Saudi Arabia has regarded Kerry's cautious outreach to Tehran -- and burgeoning relationship with its Foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif -- with suspicion, and the London visit was designed to rebuild trust."We agree, first of all, the alliance, the friendship between the United States and the kingdom of Saudi Arabia remains a lynchpin of our efforts in the region. It's important. We both agree with that, on both sides," Kerry told reporters as he welcomed al-Jubeir. Without mentioning Iran, Kerry expressed sympathy for Saudi Arabia's concerns -- shared by the United States -- over its web of influence in the Arab world. "We also understand the challenges that the kingdom and other countries feel in the region about interference in their countries," he said. "We want to try to see if there's a way, moving forward, to resolve some of these problems without moving to greater conflict. The last thing the region needs is more conflict," he continued. "And I know the kingdom of Saudi Arabia agrees with that. But there are simple things they would like to see done that help prevent that." The United States expressed concern after Saudi Arabia marked the New Year by carrying out a mass execution, including that of a respected Shiite cleric accused of fomenting sedition. Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr's death triggered outrage in Shiite-majority Iran, and the protest led to the sacking of the Saudi embassy, an act Riyadh blamed on Tehran. Al-Jubeir responded: "I think if you look at the challenges our region faces, whether in Syria, whether in Yemen, whether terrorists, whether in Iran's interference in the affairs of the region, or Libya, the most effective ways for us to work though these challenges is through our close partnership and alliance with the United States of America." The pair's meeting was to continue.

U.N. Peace Envoy Leaves Yemen Empty Handed
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 14/16/The U.N. envoy to Yemen left the rebel-held capital empty handed Thursday after a mission aimed at reaching an agreement for talks between the insurgents and the government. "We have not set a new date for the next round of talks," Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed told reporters at Sanaa airport before departing the conflict-riven country. The Mauritanian diplomat said he was alarmed by the "suffering of Yemenis", but he expressed hopes of a "quick return" to the negotiating table. The Yemeni government sat down with the rebels and their allies last month in Switzerland for six days of talks that ended without a major breakthrough. Ould Cheikh Ahmed had arrived in Sanaa on Sunday for a visit aimed at convincing the Iran-backed Huthi rebels and their allies to attend a new round of peace talks. The envoy had met with government officials, who are temporarily based in Riyadh, before he headed to Sanaa. Foreign Minister Abdel Malak al-Mekhlafi said Saturday that the talks initially scheduled to start on January 14 had been postponed until January 20 or 23. The envoy said the rebels had taken positive steps during his visit, including the release of the Minister of Technological Education, Abdel Razzak al-Ashwal, a prominent member of the Al-Islah Sunni Islamist party. Four other detainees, including activists and journalists, were also set free, he said. He also said he received assurances about the condition of Defense Minister General Mahmud Sobeihi, who is being held by the rebels, as well as Nasser Mansour Hadi, a brother of President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi. More than 5,800 people have been killed in Yemen since the start of a Saudi-led bombing campaign against rebels, about half of them civilians, according to the United Nations.

Iraq Receives Saudi Envoy Credentials despite Anti-Riyadh Anger
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 14/16/Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari received the new Saudi ambassador's credentials on Thursday despite calls for his expulsion after Riyadh executed a leading Shiite cleric. Thamer al-Sabhan is the first Baghdad-based Saudi ambassador in a quarter century, after relations were cut following ex-president Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. Jaafari's office said he met with Sabhan and discussed Iraqi-Saudi relations and Baghdad's efforts to ease tensions between Riyadh and Tehran that exploded following the kingdom's execution of Nimr al-Nimr.Nimr's execution sparked outrage across the Shiite world. Protesters torched Riyadh's embassy and consulate in Iran, leading the kingdom and other Gulf states to cut diplomatic ties with Tehran. Thousands of people, including fighters from powerful Shiite paramilitary forces, have protested in Iraq against Saudi Arabia, and called for Sabhan to be expelled from the Shiite-majority country.

Saudi Executes Yemeni for Killing Employer
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 14/16/Saudi Arabia on Thursday executed a Yemeni man for murdering and robbing his employer, raising the number of death sentences already carried out by the kingdom this year to 52. Yaser Qawza broke into the home of his Saudi employer Falwa al-Jarad, tied her up and beat her to death before robbing her money and jewellery, according to an interior ministry statement. Qawza was executed in the southern region of Aseer, said the statement, published by the official SPA news agency. Most executions in the country are carried out by beheading with a sword. Last year Saudi Arabia executed 153 people, most of them for drug trafficking or murder, according to an Agence France Presse tally. Amnesty International says the number of executions in Saudi Arabia in 2015 was the highest for two decades. The kingdom practises a strict Islamic legal code under which murder, drug trafficking, armed robbery, rape and apostasy are all punishable by death. On January 2, the kingdom executed 47 men convicted of "terrorism", including Al-Qaeda-linked Sunni militants and Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr, whose death sparked a diplomatic crisis with Iran.

Turkey Shelled IS in Iraq, Syria after Istanbul Attack, Says PM
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 14/16/Turkish ground forces pounded Islamic State jihadists in Iraq and Syria after a suicide attack blamed on the group killed 10 German tourists, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said on Thursday. "After the heinous attack in Istanbul, our armed forces hit in the last 48 hours some 500 positions of Daesh in Syria and Iraq with artillery and tank fire," Davutoglu told Turkish ambassadors in Ankara, using an Arabic acronym for IS. Around 200 IS members were killed in the assault, he said. It was not possible to independently verify the toll."Every attack that targets Turkey's guests will be punished," he added. Turkey has often been criticized by its Western allies for not doing enough to combat IS jihadists who have seized swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq. But Ankara last year stepped up its involvement in the U.S.-led coalition against IS, hosting American war planes at its Incirlik air base for deadly raids against the jihadists and conducting air strikes of its own. There was no suggestion from Davutoglu that Turkey had carried out air strikes against IS in the past 48 hours and it appeared that all the fire had been from the ground. The premier said Turkey was determined to dislodge IS jihadists fully from the Syrian border, which analysts says they have controlled for much of last year. "We will continue to fight the Daesh terror organization in a determined way until it leaves the Turkish border area completely and as long as it behaves in a way that tarnishes the name of our holy religion Islam," he said. Turkish authorities have identified the Istanbul suicide bomber as a 28-year-old Syrian who entered Turkey on January 5 along with a group of people fleeing the country's civil war. At the border, he was fingerprinted by migration authorities but never placed on any wanted list. Turkey is currently hosting around 2.2 million refugees who have fled the fighting in Syria, and Davutoglu was quick to warn against seeing all migrants as potential extremists, which he said would be playing into the hands of the "terrorists". So far, a total of seven suspects have been arrested in connection with the bombing, Interior Minister Efkan Ala said on Thursday. In addition, Turkish security forces rounded up over 70 suspected IS members across the country over the last few days, but it was not clear if any of them were directly connected to the Istanbul attack. According to the Anatolia news agency, there are at least six Russian citizens among them. Turkey was hit by three attacks blamed on IS in 2015, including a including a double suicide bombing in October in Ankara that killed 103 people, the country's worst-ever attack. All those attacks targeted pro-Kurdish groups, who are vehemently opposed to IS. The attack on the German tourists, however, was the first time that foreign visitors have been targeted in the historic heart of Istanbul.

Implementation date of nuclear deal to be announced within days
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/January 15/16
Nuclear negotiator and Deputy Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said that the date of the final implementation of the nuclear deal will be announced by Jan. 17, paving the way for the end of international sanctions. Araghchi said that the International Atomic Energy Agency would issue a report Jan. 15 clearing Iran’s past nuclear activities. He added that Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini would announce the day of the implementation of the nuclear deal in a joint statement. Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany reached a landmark nuclear deal in July that required Iran to reduce the size of its nuclear program for the first time in over a decade in exchange for sanctions relief from the United States, the European Union and the UN Security Council. Araghchi said that since the deal was made, “many difficult tasks have been completed” in order to reach the final implementation phase. He reiterated that Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei both signed off on the nuclear deal.
The manner in which sanctions would be removed was one of the more complicated factors in reaching a date for the final implementation of the nuclear deal, Araghchi said. He said that the United States has a number of sanctions on Iran, some related to non-nuclear developments following the 1979 revolution, others related to the nuclear program, and some sanctions linked to both categories. He said that more than 80% of the sanctions are related to Iran’s nuclear program and that these will be removed with the final implementation of the deal. Due to a number of non-nuclear sanctions on Iran, US-Iran economic relations are not possible, Araghchi said. However, he added that the United States has made it possible for Iran to purchase passenger planes and receive permission to export food products and rugs to the United States. According to Araghchi, even after the implementation of the nuclear deal, there will continue to be challenges and misunderstandings about the technical nature of sanctions. He also said that both sides are aware there will most likely be continuous attempts in the US Congress to derail the deal even after it has been implemented. The Iranian media, particularly Reformist media that have been supportive of President Hassan Rouhani’s policies to resolve the nuclear deal through negotiations, have been awaiting this news. Fatemeh Moghimi wrote in Arman Daily, “There is hope that with the elimination of sanctions and the investment of European bodies in Iran, we will witness the creation and strengthening of a healthy economy.” The op-ed, which was titled “The elimination of sanctions and leaving an oil economy,” argued that after the nuclear deal implementation, Iran has the opportunity to pursue “correct and more desirable” economic policies. Moghimi even argued that greater economic cooperation with regional countries can help reduce tensions with neighboring countries. In a meeting with former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in Tehran, Rouhani said that after the implementation of the nuclear deal, economic, political and regional cooperation between the seven countries involved in the nuclear deal must be increased.

What’s Larijani’s game for the parliamentary elections?
Saeid Jafari/Al-Monitor/January 15/16
TEHRAN, Iran — Ali Larijani is a well-known figure who has been on the political stage of the Islamic Republic of Iran for decades. Over the years, he has held positions in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; the Ministry of Labor, Cooperatives and Social Welfare; the Ministry of Information and Communications Technology; and the Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance. He has served as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting and speaker of parliament, just to name a few. He is the second son of Ayatollah Haj Mirza Hashem Amoli and the son-in-law of Ayatollah Morteza Motahhari, one of the key theoreticians of the 1979 Islamic Revolution whom the Islamic Republic’s late founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini once described as “the fruit of my life” and “a part of my flesh.” Larijani’s siblings have also played distinguished roles on Iran’s political stage. Sadegh Amoli Larijani, a younger brother of Ali, is the head of Iran’s judiciary — a position that is directly appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Meanwhile, Mohammad Javad Larijani, an older brother, heads the judiciary’s human rights council and serves as one of Khamenei’s top advisers.
In 2005, Ali Larijani ran as a conservative in the presidential elections that first brought Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power, coming in sixth among the seven candidates. Following Ahmadinejad’s victory, Larijani was put in charge of Iran’s nuclear file in the capacity of secretary of the SNSC, replacing Hassan Rouhani. However, as time passed, a rift between Larijani and Ahmadinejad widened until Larijani resigned from his post at the SNSC and ran in the 2008 parliamentary elections instead. After he secured a seat in parliament, Iranian lawmakers unanimously voted for him to become speaker, heading the legislative branch. Larijani managed to repeat this success in the ninth parliament. Today, as Iran is about to hold its tenth round of parliamentary elections since the 1979 Islamic Revolution on Feb. 26, he continues to serve as speaker.
Since the start of his political career, Larijani has stayed on the right of the political spectrum, among the Principlists. Yet when Ahmadinejad’s Principlist government was in power, he found himself at odds with the heads of the two other branches of government. These differences reached a climax in February 2013, the year of Iran’s most recent presidential elections. Although Larijani did not openly express his support for any of the candidates during the June 2013 presidential polls, he quickly found his way to the presidential office after Rouhani won the vote, and congratulated him on his victory. The special emphasis that Larijani has placed on improving relations between the legislative and executive branches of government is evidence of the different approach he has assumed now, compared to his path under Ahmadinejad. Indeed, Larijani has set out to support Rouhani ever since he took office. In fact, this support has been so strong that many hard-liners in parliament have accused Larijani of being one-sided in favor of Rouhani’s administration. During some delicate situations over the past two years, such as the impeachment of Rouhani’s initial minister of science, research and technology and the introduction of new science and interior ministers. In regard to the pursuit of the nuclear negotiations, Larijani has done his best to act in favor of the administration.
This closeness with Rouhani has infuriated hard-liners, and Larijani — who is known as an anti-American figure in Iran’s political scene — has even been accused of backing the United States. The events surrounding parliament’s ratification of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in July and Larijani’s handling of the matter as speaker severely distressed opponents of the nuclear agreement, prompting them to accuse Larijani of being a dictator. In such an atmosphere, it was not odd that rumors surfaced about the Principlist speaker moving to side with the Reformists or moderates in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Some, however, are dismissing or downplaying these rumors. Saeed Laylaz, deputy head of the moderate Executives of Construction Party, told Al-Monitor, “Taking such an implication was incorrect from the start, because before entering parliament, we can’t talk of forming a coalition with Larijani, who is in some way heading parliament’s Principlist movement.“
However, on registration day for candidates for the parliamentary elections, Larijani announced that he was entering the fray as an independent. The move comes while he has been one of the top members of the conservative Followers of the Leader faction, considered the strongest grouping in the current parliament. Now, as the current parliament’s term is nearing its end, this faction, which is made up of moderate Principlist figures, is facing a great deal of opposition, particularly over its support for the Rouhani administration — a position that has made extremists within the faction discontent.
Over his political career, Larijani has become increasingly moderate. Indeed, he may now be one of the closest Principlist politicians to the Rouhani administration. Of note, he was severely criticized by the Reformists during his time as head of Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (1994-2004), yet now enjoys close relations with Rouhani and Reformists alike. Since Rouhani first introduced his ministers, many have accused Larijani of undue influence in the Cabinet or of imposing his own will on the administration.
Now, with parliamentary elections approaching, the Principlists are trying to form an advisory council by inviting prominent politicians such as the supreme leader’s foreign policy adviser Ali Akbar Velayati, Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Larijani. As the prospect of the Principlists branching out once again becomes increasingly serious, there are many attempts to forge internal unity. Asadollah Badamchian of the Islamic Coalition Party — one of the oldest conservative political parties in Iran — confirmed the existence of internal differences, saying, “We are working hard to unify the Principlist movement. … The Endurance Front asks why we invited Ali Larijani. … Another front asks, ‘Why did you invite the Endurance Front?’ … We have held a lot of meetings in order to form a three-way coalition with the Endurance Front, the Devotees [of the Islamic Revolution] faction backed by Ghalibaf and Larijani, and hope to gather the Principlist movement in a unified format for the parliamentary elections."
Yet despite these efforts to forge unity, the differences within the Principlist camp still appear serious. Laylaz told Al-Monitor, “The situation is much better in the Reformist front, and there is an unprecedented unity among their entire organization.” Laylaz added that he does not believe it’s impossible to approach Larijani after the elections, saying, “Considering Mr. Larijani’s viewpoints, it is possible that after entering parliament, a kind of cooperation will be formed between him and the Reform movement.”Whatever the situation, Larijani has reached a veteran politician status in Iran, where he is now talking of an independent presence in elections and no longer needs to be represented by the Coordination Council of Islamic Revolution Forces, which in the 2005 presidential elections were supposed to introduce a single Principlist candidate, with prominent figures Habibollah Asgaroladi, Ali Akbar Nategh-Nuri and Mohammad Reza Bahonar naming Larijani as their sole candidate. However, Ahmadinejad and Ghalibaf failed to adhere to this decision, and so Larijani garnered a mere 1 million votes. Over 10 years later, it is clear that, for Larijani at the very least, the game has drastically changed.

State of the Union highlights Jordan’s rift with Obama
Aaron Magid/Al-Monitor/January 15/16
Despite the harsh divide among Republican presidential candidates on foreign policy, the importance of Jordan has been a unifying theme. Donald Trump praised King Abdullah on Twitter and Ohio Gov. John Kasich wished in a presidential debate that Jordan’s king “would reign for a thousand years.” In stark contrast to the Republicans, President Barack Obama downplayed or did not mention Amman’s most critical national priorities — the Islamic State [IS], Palestine and the war in Syria — during his Jan. 12 State of the Union address. Addressing members of Congress that evening, Obama emphasized, “As we focus on destroying [IS], over-the-top claims that this is World War III just play into their hands.” The American leader’s assertion that such dire warnings about IS are misguided directly contradict one of Abdullah’s main talking points when traveling overseas. Over and over — whether at the United Nations General Assembly podium, during an interview with PBS’ Charlie Rose or even in Kosovo — the Jordanian monarch has declared that the battle against IS is “a third world war, and I believe we must respond with equal intensity.”
After IS kidnapped Jordanian pilot Lt. Muath Al-Kaseasbeh and burned him alive in a cage in February of last year, the Jordanian air force launched a series of strikes against IS targets in Syria and Iraq. Jordan claimed to have killed 7,000 fighters in the days following Kaseasbeh’s execution.
Obama’s minimizing of the IS campaign speaks to a fundamental divergence with Abdullah and has led many leading thinkers in Amman to question America’s determination and willingness to, in the president’s own words, “degrade and ultimately destroy [IS]." If the world’s strongest and most advanced military cannot defeat a far inferior and less organized group, what are Obama’s true intentions?
In addition to IS, the State of the Union illustrated a major policy rift with Amman regarding the Palestinian peace process. Obama did not once bother to mention Palestine or Israel in the speech setting up his administration’s goals for the upcoming year. Here again, Jordanian leaders take an opposite approach to this sensitive issue. House Speaker Atif Tarawneh said in October, “Jordan, under the leadership of King Abdullah II, has placed the Palestinian issue on top of its priorities.” Amman raises the urgent need to create a Palestinian state in almost every meeting abroad. The Hashemite Kingdom’s difference with the Obama administration is not solely focused on this speech, but rather encompasses a larger policy divide. Since Secretary of State John Kerry’s peace efforts stalled in 2014, the United States has not led an ongoing effort to end the Palestinian conflict. White House Middle East coordinator Rob Malley told reporters in November that reaching a negotiated solution between the parties during Obama’s remaining term “is not in the cards.” In contrast to Amman’s wishes, the Obama administration no longer prioritizes tackling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in a region filled with violence. Even before the speech, it was difficult to ignore the missing element in Abdullah’s Washington itinerary Jan. 12. After traveling thousands of miles, the king initially could not secure a meeting with Obama because of "scheduling conflicts." However, the two did meet briefly Jan. 13 at Andrews Air Force Base before both departed on separate trips. A longtime and dependable US ally despite the Middle East’s turmoil arrives in the US capital, but Obama could not carve out more than about five minutes for the king.
In addition to the battle against IS, nearly five years of fighting in Syria have dramatically impacted next-door Jordan. Jordan has absorbed over 630,000 Syrian refugees, according to the United Nations (one diplomat estimates that Syrians represent about 20% of Jordan’s population), and Abdullah has repeatedly called for decisive action to end the conflict. Yet, in Obama’s brief mentioning of the bloody crisis that has killed some 250,000 people, the US president appeared satisfied with US policy. Obama cites Syria as an example of the “smarter approach, a patient and disciplined strategy that uses every element of our national power” by partnering with local forces — despite the fact that the conflict’s violence has only been spreading. It is no wonder that in recent months, Abdullah has met multiple times with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a US rival, during trips to Moscow to discuss developments in the Middle East. The United States provides Jordan with significant financial aid, but mere monetary assistance is no longer sufficient in tackling the region’s spiraling crises. With Putin demonstrating decisive action in his military intervention alongside Damascus while daylight grows between Abdullah and Obama over IS, Palestine and Syria, the king may question whether the United States is truly a reliable Jordanian ally during such uncertain times.

What are the real goals behind local truces in Syria?
Mustafa al-Haj/Al-Monitor/January 15/16
DAMASCUS, Syria — Several successful cease-fire truces have been reached in different parts of Syria between the Ministry of National Reconciliation on the one hand and UN delegations and native dignitaries on the other. The regime calls these truces “national reconciliations,” but many observers wonder if perhaps the agreements just stem from the regime’s desire to herd opposition brigades into Idlib in northwestern Syria. Under one of the latest truces, in Homs, the opposition battalions’ militants took their light weapons on Dec. 8 and left al-Waer neighborhood for the countryside of Idlib in the north after a five-month siege on the city. Also, a deal led opposition fighters in long-besieged Zabadani to leave with their families on Dec. 28 toward Lebanon, Turkey and the Idlib countryside. The truce aimed to implement the September agreement reached in Turkey between an Iranian delegation and one from the opposition umbrella group Jaish al-Fatah (Army of Conquest). On Dec. 1, a delegation of notables representing Jabhat al-Nusra in al-Waer neighborhood met with regime representatives — including the head of the General Intelligence Directorate, Mohammed Dib Zaitoun, and the governor of Homs, Talal al-Barazi — under UN auspices through UN Ambassador in Syria Yacoub El Hillo.
The main directive of the resulting truce, which was implemented Dec. 9, provided for a complete cease-fire between the two parties and the exit of 270 fighters from Jabhat al-Nusra — which opposed the truce — to the countryside of Idlib in the north. The truce called for medium weapons to be handed over to the Syrian regime, humanitarian corridors to be opened into the neighborhood, the conditions of the remaining wanted people to be settled and a list of detainees held by the regime to be prepared for them to be released. The regime says these truces serves the political solution process, but some activists and media outlets think the regime is seeking to empty these areas to prove its military strength and ability to manage the crisis. They say that the regime wants to kick-start the process of demographic change in the region and that it will not allow the displaced to return to their homes once the situation calms down.
In this context, France 24 website reported Dec. 18 that al-Waer residents refused to leave the neighborhood, as the truce had suggested, despite the miserable conditions there. The residents might fear that the Old Homs scenario will be repeated once they are out, and that the regime will never allow them to return. In April, the regime did not allow Old Homs residents to return following the deal between Jabhat al-Nusra and the regime there, even though the deal stated that the civilian citizens would be able to return.
Al-Monitor asked Anas Judeh, head of the opposition's Nation Building Movement, about the extent to which these truces might manage to end the armed conflict and solve the Syrian conflict.
“From the Russian standpoint, the agreements currently reached with armed groups in regime-controlled areas are the result of the Vienna II agreement signed in October 2015 calling for clearing the ‘useful’ Syrian areas of undisciplined armed groups that are incompatible with international agreements," Judeh said. "This paves the way for a stable environment, which can set the stage for a political process that Russia can apply and invoke with the United States, thus extending the international conflict” over how to handle Syria. According to Judeh, Moscow believes that to solve the Syrian crisis, terrorism must be countered first and Syria must be rescued from extremist groups like Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State (IS) through Russia’s military presence. Only then can a transitional phase that includes Bashar al-Assad be discussed. “We should be careful not to end up with a serious social fracture or animosities among the Syrian people," Judeh added. "Putting an end to the military conflict and transferring thousands of armed men along with their families to ‘remote’ regions is not enough. After all, these, along with their children, will only be ticking time bombs. Social, cultural and political work is essential to reintegrate them within the Syrian community. War on the extremist and terrorist ideology is not limited to military means alone, as it also includes cultural, social and political aspects.”
Instead of ending the conflict, Judeh said, sending fighters to other areas only serves to entrench the problem and might ultimately divide Syria into separate areas controlled by the regime, IS, Jabhat al-Nusra and the Kurds. Some critics say the regime's efforts are an attempt to prove it can reach compromises that could end the Syrian war. The regime, they say, is trying to prove it should be a key player in the next phase, which would enhance its power centers in regime-controlled areas. This would subsequently lead to the deterioration of truces given that they were not reached under appropriate conditions, and especially given the absence of neutral observers. Al-Monitor met with Reem Turkmani, head of the Madani Organization and a member of the board of the Syrian Civil Coalition. Turkmani said, “To begin with, what the regime is doing cannot be described as reconciliations. These are agreements whose main parties are military bodies seeking to achieve their interests through negotiations, not fighting.”He added, “We may witness more local agreements, but there is no guarantee of continuity given the absence of observers, human rights organizations to follow up on the prisoners’ situation or independent mediators. And there is no political will to reach a solution.”Turkmani told Al-Monitor that the best solution is for Syrians — be they civilians or militants — to stay in their areas. But some of them are forced to leave for two reasons. First, there is no third party, such as international observers, capable of protecting those who are most vulnerable to the risk of arrest. Therefore, some people prefer to leave out of fear of being arrested or forced into conscription, which could lead to their death.
Second, not all truces go as smoothly as those in Zabadani and al-Waer. For example, on Dec. 25, there were signs of an unprecedented deal that would have allowed IS militants to exit the southern Damascus districts of al-Qadam and al-Hajar toward Raqqa, the organization’s stronghold. Under the deal, buses would have transported the militants through areas under the control of Jaish al-Islam and then head to Raqqa. However, the deal failed, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, after Jaish al-Islam Cmdr. Zahran Alloush was killed Dec. 24. But a civilian activist from al-Qadam said Jaish al-Islam wasn't involved at all with the failed truce. "IS is the reason behind the deal's failure. They did not want to get out at once without knowing who would be governing the areas that they were leaving," the activist, who oversees the Facebook page of the Local Council of al-Qadam in Damascus, told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “Jaish al-Islam has nothing to do with this. The buses arrived the morning of Dec. 25 and waited in vain as IS members refused to leave.”

Middle East reality: An inconvenient truth for Obama
Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/January 14/16
Characterizing events from Yemen to Syria to Libya as a "transformation that will play out for a generation, rooted in conflicts that date back millennia" is not only a reality distortion by U.S. President Barack Obama, but also a dangerous fantasy that resigns American diplomacy to dismissiveness in the Middle East. Shrugging off the Middle East's largest upheaval in decades as a theological rift, and shying away from major diplomatic initiatives, is a slap in the face for U.S. role and stature, restricted today to responding and containing conflicts.
Absolving Responsibility
Blaming the chaos of the Middle East on centuries' old battles is a perfect cop-out strategy for Obama, avoiding his legacy from being tarnished by the fragmentation of four states, two of which were bombed by the United States (Iraq and Libya). Except, religious scriptures from a different era are not driving the current regional rivalry, or spurring ISIS. It's oppression, civil wars, ISIS territorial gains, and unchecked regional bickering that is fueling the hellfire. Obama's narrative, however, is largely aimed at absolving his administration of any wrong doing in the Middle East, and attributing current infernos to a "transformation" across a whole generation that Washington apparently has little influence over. This claim self destructs in every conflict zone in the Middle East, three of them started on Obama's watch four years ago. This is not to say U.S. leadership is not needed in the Middle East. On the contrary, it is only through U.S. leadership that the region can see an end to the current horror. In Iraq, it was U.S. catastrophic invasion in 2003 and not a Quran scripture that unleashed hell in that country. Five years later, it was Obama's mismanagement of Iraq, propping up the corrupt leadership of Nouri Maliki even as he lost elections in 2010, that gave ISIS a golden opportunity to takeover Mosul. The fall of Mosul has little to do with a generational "transformation" and plenty with misguided policies from the White House.
In Libya, the Sunni-Shia millennia rift does not even apply in a country with majority of Sunnis and intricate tribal structure and large oil wealth. It's not a sectarian conflict that is breaking Libya between East and West, and it's not under theological circumstances that ISIS was able to recruit 3500 members across the country. The failed state in Tripoli is a direct product and outcome of an unfinished intervention by NATO (US included) in 2011. Leaving militias in place, and allowing proxy regional wars to takeover the country was a fatal blow to Tripoli's transition after the elections, and a recipe for the civil war to come.
In Syria, a sectarian conflict is only a self fulfilling prophecy after years of promising democracy and "orderly transition" to a population while going silent when war crimes, chemical weapons were used against it. Obama's cold approach to Syria, comparing it to Congo in 2014, and shying away until 2015 from robust diplomacy, has opened the door for almost every regional power, mercenary and terrorist organization out there to step into the void.
Resignation not an answer
Obama's tone comes at a very low point for U.S. diplomacy in the region. The Palestinian-Israeli peace process is dead, and regional tension between two major powers in the Middle East, Saudi and Iran, is at an all time high threatening backlash from Sanaa to Beirut. While Obama bragged at the Congress that "when it comes to every important international issue, people of the world do not look to Beijing or Moscow to lead -- they call us", that is no longer exclusively the case in the Middle East. Washington was not consulted before the Yemen war, and its efforts were rejected in the latest Gaza ceasefire. Russia's relations with Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia have seen improvement over the last three years. Also, the Iraqi government that the U.S. spent trillions to bring to power, has not been able to stop Russia's flights through its airspace into Syria. This is not to say that U.S. leadership is not needed in the Middle East. On the contrary, it is only through U.S. leadership that the region can see an end to the current horror. The biggest breakthroughs in the region, whether it's in the Arab-Israeli conflict or rolling back aggressors have happened because of U.S. leadership. However, an agreement on Iran's nuclear program is not a substitute for regional diplomacy, nor should it come at expense of ending conflicts. Obama's last State of the Union was almost a surrender to the new Middle East realities against his own vision when he assumed the Presidency. It is a complete departure from the Cairo speech, and Obama's address to the Arab youth in 2011 promising that "after decades of accepting the world as it is in the region, we have a chance to pursue the world as it should be." Not anymore.

Geopolitical balance with Pakistan
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/January 14/16
Apart from the 3 million Pakistanis who work in Gulf states, and the $4 billion in annual transactions they make, the region considers relations with Pakistan strategic. The country is not viewed as a mere trading party or another Muslim nation. Pakistan has always been considered part of the formula of regional balance with Iran, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. There have been military agreements with it via undeclared contracts and alliances. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have worked to bridge the gap, even when U.S. pressure on Pakistan intensified following the Sept. 11 attacks. Back then, Washington believed Islamabad was lenient when dealing with terrorist threats, and some parties accused Pakistan of obstructing U.S. plans regarding war and governance in Afghanistan. Gulf countries consider Pakistan a strategic ally, and a provider of regional balance aimed at preventing Iranian unilateralism and chaos. Pakistan’s military capabilities qualify it to play a balancing role in the region, whereby it is a deterrent against Iranian expansionism, which has increased following the nuclear deal. Despite tensions, I do not think the situation will deteriorate into military conflict between major regional countries. However, an active Pakistani presence in the Middle East, and particularly the Gulf, will provide regional stability and security, and enhance Islamabad’s international influence. Pakistan has succeeded in avoiding military confrontation with its bigger neighbor India, despite their many previous conflicts. Despite Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan, it has also overlooked what the Americans - who are always suspicious of Islamabad’s secret activity there - are doing.
Iran
Since Pakistan is militarily stronger than its neighbor Iran, with which it shares a 900-kilometer border, Tehran has avoided a confrontation with Islamabad, although it has not stopped inciting sectarian tensions in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Iran has been keen to tempt Islamabad by talking of building a gas pipeline through Pakistan - a plan that has always been delayed by regional crises, geopolitical issues, and sanctions on Iran that prevented bilateral trade. Even if Tehran implements the plan, Pakistani interests with Arab Gulf countries are of bigger value commercially, politically and religiously.
Pakistan has played a balancing role with Iran in the Gulf since the 1970s, and its weight increased as Tehran’s threats against Gulf countries increased in the 1980s. Consecutive Pakistani governments have strengthened relations with the Gulf since then. Gulf countries consider Pakistan a strategic ally, and a provider of regional balance aimed at preventing Iranian unilateralism and chaos.

Arabs and Iran — the last chance
Mohammed Fahad al-Harthi/Al Arabiya/January 14/16
Whatever plans Iran has for the region is in disarray because it now finds itself increasingly isolated, including seeing the unexpected development of Arab nations, taking the lead from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, forming a united front against its actions. The Council of the Arab League earlier this week added to the growing chorus of condemnation, saying the Iranian government’s continued intervention in the internal affairs of Arab countries was undermining security and stability in the Gulf region. The bottom line for virtually everyone now is that Iran has been identified as the chief troublemaker in the region, despite attempts by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to distort the facts in a New York Times article published on Jan. 10. Arabs are in a critical position now — they can either decide their future collectively or cease to exist. They have to prove to themselves and the world that they can manage their own affairs. Zarif sought to shift the blame from the so-called peace-loving Tehran, claiming that Saudi Arabia was responsible for stoking sectarian fires in the region among Arab nations. He is entitled to his opinion, but the facts on the ground tell a different story.
He has clearly not taken into account that Arab nations themselves are now standing together and condemning Tehran. The Arab League in its communiqué issued following the meeting, held Iran responsible for the attacks on Saudi missions.
It also deplored what it described as Iran’s hostile and provocative statements against Saudi Arabia following the execution of several terrorists who were convicted and sentenced by Saudi courts. The council stated that Iranian statements were blatant interference in the Saudi judiciary and the internal affairs of the Kingdom, and incompatible with the U.N. Charter. The Arab League also called on Iran to stop supporting armed militias and parties in Arab countries. The only country that did not sign the communiqué was Lebanon, because Hezbollah, now in the government, was mentioned in the statement. Question of the Emirati islands
How can we believe the soft-spoken Zarif while Iran still occupies three Emirati islands and has rejected all calls to end its occupation? It has also refused to seek a resolution at the International Court of Justice because it knows it has no legitimate claim to the land. All these events may just be a catalyst for Arab nations to take the lead and decide on action once and for all to end Iran’s intervention in their affairs. It is clear that Iran has never previously worried about the response of Arabs to its imperialist designs. It has behaved as if it controlled the region. For instance, when the late Egyptian President Anwar Al-Sadat was assassinated, it renamed a Tehran street after the assassin. What greater form of ridicule can there be? It continued on this path until it expanded to the south of the Arabian Peninsula, ignoring the fact that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations would never allow the strategically placed Yemen to fall under Iranian rule. Arabs don’t want Iran to transform from the Gulf’s “policeman” that it was during the Shah’s time in power, to the Gulf’s ruler in the era of the Supreme Leader. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir raised an important issue when he asked whether it was possible for Iran to modify its foreign policy by tempering attempts to export its revolution. Its behavior shows that it has not done so. Presumably, any country undergoing a revolution would reach some form of maturity to ensure its policies align with those in the world, including noninterference in other nations’ affairs.
Critical position
This is not beyond Iran’s capabilities. It has already made major modifications to its foreign policy out of necessity, as it recently did when it improved relations with the United States, this coming after years of dubbing it the “Great Satan.”Arabs are in a critical position now — they can either decide their future collectively or cease to exist. They have to prove to themselves and the world that they can manage their own affairs, not only militarily but with other weapons such as trade boycotts or cutting off diplomatic relations. Only then will Iran know that Arabs mean business.
It is a cliché, but certainly true, that out of every bad situation a good opportunity arises. Arabs now have the chance to seize the day.

From Russia without love
Michael Young/Now Lebanon/January 14/16
In an interview with Germany’s Bild newspaper, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin hinted that Moscow could grant asylum to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad if he ever decided to leave Syria. While saying that this discussion was premature, Putin observed “we granted asylum to Mr. Snowden, which was far more difficult than to do the same for Mr. al-Assad.”Putin’s comments were the first time that the Russians have spoken publicly of Assad’s possible exit from Syria, after having steadfastly refused to do so in negotiations over the future of the country. Many interpreted the Russian president’s remarks as a subtle shift in Moscow’s position. Perhaps it was, but it’s more reasonable to assume that this interpretation is somewhat optimistic.Putin did criticize Assad and repeated the Russian mantra that only the Syrian people could decide his fate. “I think that President al-Assad has made many mistakes in the course of the Syrian conflict,” Putin said. He went on to call for a new Syrian constitution, to be followed by early elections. “It is the Syrian people themselves who must decide who … should run their country,” the Russian president added. In many regards that is the nub of the problem. Placing the burden of getting rid of Assad on the Syrian people is an indirect way of saying that if the Syrian leader can successfully manipulate the electoral process coming at the end of the United Nations-mandated transition in Syria in his favor, then he can stay in office. And knowing Assad and his entourage, manipulation and intimidation are what we should expect. In other words, Putin may have tossed out negative comments about Assad merely to conceal the fact that Russia has offered no real concessions on the Syrian president’s destiny. Nor does his odd formulation suggest he will ever do so, since that will always remain a matter for the Syrians themselves.
Periodically, Russian officials have expressed distaste for Assad, or so it has been leaked, but with no practical consequences. Meanwhile the Russians have continued to bomb everything in sight, allowing the Syrian regime to regain the initiative and make it far less likely that Assad will ever agree to surrender power, let alone follow Edward Snowden to Moscow. In the end, why should Russia behave any differently? The United Nations plan agreed in Vienna last November has called for talks between the Syrian regime and opposition groups, which are to begin at the end of this month. The process is supposed to lead to the formation of a transitional governing body, which will organize presidential and parliamentary elections by August 2017.
While there is much skepticism that the UN plan will work, the reality is that it has much more potential than anyone imagines. Virtually everybody seeks a political solution in Syria, perhaps with the exception of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, who have said that if Assad refuses to leave office, he will be made to do so militarily. But that may ultimately weigh little against the combined efforts of the United States, Russia, Iran and the major European states, who all have a major stake in bringing the carnage in Syria to an end. What Putin realized some time ago is that the American and European preoccupation with ISIS gave him considerable latitude to intervene in Syria and try to impose an outcome of his choosing. Until now the Russian president’s tactics appear to have succeeded. Coordination with the United States is ongoing, the Obama administration sees that Putin is the only person who can get through to Assad, and the Russians agree with Washington that ISIS represents a major threat.
This situation prompted columnist David Ignatius, who often reflects the administration’s mood well, to write this week: “Russia is emerging as an essential diplomatic and security partner for the U.S. in Syria, despite the Obama administration’s opposition to Moscow’s support for President Bashar Assad.” For Ignatius, “an administration that has had trouble living with President Vladimir Putin, especially after his actions in Ukraine, finds that it can’t live without him in Syria.” This sense of dependency is worrisome, because it gives Putin room to do what he pleases. For now the Russian president is keen to neutralize Assad’s regional enemies, above all Turkey, and limit as much as possible the rebels’ ability to be rearmed from across the border. If the UN diplomatic scheme moves forward, Putin will likely find it easier to corner the Saudis and Turks, a fact that has contributed in no small measure to raising tensions between Riyadh and Washington, as the Saudis see America as being in bed with the Russians. With everything going his way in Syria, as it did in Ukraine, Putin has no reason to fret about Assad's exile. And yet everybody believes he does, because the Russian has proven time and again that even if you can’t fool all of the people all of the time, you can fool some of the people all of the time. Putin tells everyone what they want to hear and they nod their heads, ignoring how he has duped them repeatedly.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper. He tweets @BeirutCalling.