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Bible Quotations For Today
Did the baptism of John come from heaven, or was it of human origin
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 21/23-27: ""When he entered the temple, the chief priests and the elders of the people came to him as he was teaching, and said, ‘By what authority are you doing these things, and who gave you this authority?’ Jesus said to them, ‘I will also ask you one question; if you tell me the answer, then I will also tell you by what authority I do these things. Did the baptism of John come from heaven, or was it of human origin?’ And they argued with one another, ‘If we say, "From heaven", he will say to us, "Why then did you not believe him?" But if we say, "Of human origin", we are afraid of the crowd; for all regard John as a prophet.’So they answered Jesus, ‘We do not know.’ And he said to them, ‘Neither will I tell you by what authority I am doing these things."

Those who were not my people I will call my people, and her who was not beloved I will call beloved
Letter to the Romans 09/19-29: "You will say to me then, ‘Why then does he still find fault? For who can resist his will?’ But who indeed are you, a human being, to argue with God? Will what is moulded say to the one who moulds it, ‘Why have you made me like this?’Has the potter no right over the clay, to make out of the same lump one object for special use and another for ordinary use? What if God, desiring to show his wrath and to make known his power, has endured with much patience the objects of wrath that are made for destruction; and what if he has done so in order to make known the riches of his glory for the objects of mercy, which he has prepared beforehand for glory including us whom he has called, not from the Jews only but also from the Gentiles? As indeed he says in Hosea, ‘Those who were not my people I will call "my people", and her who was not beloved I will call "beloved". ’‘And in the very place where it was said to them, "You are not my people", there they shall be called children of the living God.’ And Isaiah cries out concerning Israel, ‘Though the number of the children of Israel were like the sand of the sea, only a remnant of them will be saved; for the Lord will execute his sentence on the earth quickly and decisively.’And as Isaiah predicted, ‘If the Lord of hosts had not left survivors to us, we would have fared like Sodom and been made like Gomorrah."’

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 09-10/15
El-Sisi in Athens to press forward on big Eg Israeli-Russian Coordination in Syria: So Far So Good/Nadav Pollak/Washington Institute/December 09/15
Nothing in the Middle East Happens by Accident -- Except When It Does/Dennis Ross/Washington Institute/December 09/15
Egyptian-Greek-Israeli gas deal/DEBKAfile/December 09/15
Germany: Salafist "Aid Workers" Recruiting Refugees/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/December 09/15
Turkey Murders Greatest Kurdish Lawyer/Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/December 09/15
Plan to exclude Turkey from Mideast power struggle/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/December 09/15
Refugee plight shouldn’t be forgotten amid noise of battle/Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/December 09/15

Hizbullah Kills 9 Nusra Fighters in Arsal Outskirts, Including Top Official
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 09/15/Hizbullah on Wednesday killed an al-Qaida commander and eight of his men in an attack on their convoy along the Lebanese-Syrian border, the group's media said. Al-Manar television said the convoy of al-Qaida affiliate al-Nusra Front fighters had been traveling on the outskirts of the restive Lebanese border town of Arsal when Hizbullah struck. "The resistance (Hezbollah) fighters targeted the convoy of al-Nusra Front official Abu Firas al-Jubbeh... after carefully monitoring its movements," the station said. Abu Firas and three Islamist fighters were killed immediately and when al-Nusra militants tried to retrieve the bodies, Hizbullah opened fire anew killing the other five. Al-Manar broadcast footage of the arid, rocky terrain where the fighters were targeted and said clashes also erupted between the two sides during which automatic weapons and mortar rounds were used. The station said that the Lebanese army also fired on al-Nusra positions in the area. According to state-run National News Agency, the army fired heavy-caliber artillery at movements and gatherings of militants in Wadi Hmeid and Wadi al-Kheil in Arsal's outskirts, reportedly causing casualties. The clashes come just eight days after al-Nusra freed 16 Lebanese soldiers and police it captured more than a year ago from Arsal. The swap deal partially ended a long-running hostage crisis, but nine other servicemen taken prisoner at the same time are still held by the Islamic State group. Arsal lies along Lebanon's border with Syria and it hosts many Syrian refugees as well as rebel fighters in the surrounding countryside.

Franjieh Meets Aoun in Rabieh over Presidential Initiative
Naharnet/December 09/15/A much-anticipated meeting was held Wednesday afternoon in Rabieh between Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh and Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun, amid ambiguity in the ties between the two allies that followed the northern leader's presidential nomination. The meeting was held in the presence of Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil -- Aoun's son-in-law. Franjieh left Rabieh without making a statement after the talks, which lasted around an hour. The meeting between the two candidates of the March 8 alliance nominated for the presidency had been described as “pivotal” by the al-Joumhouria daily. Franijeh was expected to brief Aoun on his meeting with al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri in Paris recently, which brought forward a political settlement to end the vacuum at the Baabda Palace by nominating the Marada leader. The suggestion was not appreciated by several political groups mainly the Christian leaders of the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party, and the Free Patriotic Movement of Aoun. Aoun for his part was expected to reiterate adherence to his own candidacy and to the fact that he would not step back from his run in the presidential race, An Nahar daily said. The Change and Reform chief would inform Franjieh of his bloc's stance, which is also backed by MPs of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc of his staunch ally Hizbullah, it added.

Berri: Aoun-Franjieh Understanding Best Solution to Ending Presidential Crisis
Naharnet/December 09/15/Speaker Nabih Berri stressed on Wednesday the need to end the presidential deadlock in Lebanon. He said: “The best scenario to resolve the crisis lies in an agreement between Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun and Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh.”
He made his remarks during his weekly meeting with lawmakers at his Ain el-Tineh residence. “The persistence of the current situation in Lebanon only benefits terrorism that is lurking around us,” warned the speaker before the MPs. Berri therefore urged the Lebanese people to take advantage of the circumstances in the country and resolve their own problems. Recent efforts to end the deadlock saw Franjieh emerge as a presidential candidate. The Christian parties of the Kataeb, Free Patriotic Movement, and Lebanese Forces have voiced their objection to the manner in which Franjieh's name is being proposed. His chances to be elected rose significantly in the wake of a meeting he held in recent weeks with Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri in Paris. Hariri has been spearheading efforts to elect the Marada Movement chief as president even though his ally in the March 14 camp, LF chief Samir Geagea, is a presidential candidate.Aoun is also a nominee.

Bkirki Denies al-Rahi Discussed Franjieh's Nomination with Syrian Officials
Naharnet/December 09/15/The Maronite patriarchate on Wednesday denied a media report claiming that Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi had heard “reservations” from Syrian officials over Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh's presidential nomination during his pastoral visit to Tartus earlier this week.
“The visit was only pastoral and His Eminence did not meet with any Syrian official and he did not talk politics there,” patriarchate spokesman Walid Ghayyad said. “There are no sources in Bkirki who make statements or give information about Patriarch al-Rahi's stances on the political issues in the country,” he stressed. When the patriarch wants to “voice his viewpoint on any topic -- especially on the presidential juncture, the proposed settlement and his meetings in this regard – he would personally express it in his sermons, in his statements or through the press office's communiques,” Ghayyad added.
Al-Joumhouria newspaper had reported Tuesday that al-Rahi was "surprised" by the "reservations" he heard from Syrian officials over Franjieh's proposed nomination. Al-Rahi has met in recent days with Franjieh, Kataeb Party leader MP Sami Gemayel and Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil – a son-in-law of Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun. Franjieh's chances to reach the Baabda Palace had recently made a dramatic surge in the wake of a Paris meeting between him and Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri. But reports of Franjieh's possible nomination were met by objections and reservations from the country's main christian parties – the FPM, the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb.

Report: Geagea Satisfied with Dead-End Reached in Franjieh's Nomination
Naharnet/December 09/15/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea remarked that the recently proposed political settlement has reached a “dead-end” due to a number of factors, including his party's rejection of it, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Wednesday. LF sources told the daily that Geagea has “expressed his satisfaction over the dead-end reached in the attempt to elect Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president.” He also attributed the failure to Saudi Arabia's position that “refuses to abandon Geagea and Christian consensus that rejects the manner in which the settlement is being imposed.”The kingdom has repeatedly said that it does not interfere in Lebanon's internal affairs, with its ambassador Ali Awadh Asiri saying last week: “Saudi Arabia has not and will not nominate any candidate for the presidency … Franjieh's nomination was an inter-Lebanese initiative and we only supported the step and inter-Christian dialogue is needed in this regard.”Franjieh's name is being proposed as part of a greater settlement that would revitalize the political scene in Lebanon. The MP's chances to reach the Baabda Palace had recently made a dramatic surge in the wake of a Paris meeting between him and Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri. The nomination has created tensions among the Christian camps of the Kataeb Party, LF and Free Patriotic Movement, who all oppose the manner in which Franjieh's candidacy is being proposed. The candidacy has also created a divide between the Mustaqbal Movement and LF, both allies in the March 14 camp. Geagea is a presidential candidate himself. The LF sources continued to al-Joumhouria: “Geagea stresses that the halt of the settlement does not mean that it has failed. Those marketing it will resume their efforts once again” “Should these efforts kick off again, then Geagea will be ready to confront it and he will take surprising moves against it,” they warned. They also did not rule out the possibility that he would support the candidacy of his rival, Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun.
Given the choice between Aoun and Franjieh, Geagea would pick the former, revealed LF MP Antoine Zahra in recent days.

One Floor Torched at al-Ain State-run High School
Naharnet/December 09/15/Unidentified assailants torched the second floor of the state-run high school in the northern Bekaa town of al-Ain on Wednesday, state-run National News Agency reported. The culprits then fled to an unknown destination, the agency added. “A Civil Defense crew put out the fire and the relevant security forces have since launched an investigation,” NNA said. On November 29, unidentified attackers set fire to parts of a school in the Baalbek district town of Ras al-Ain.

Report: Presidential Settlement Frozen at the Moment, Says Bkirki
Naharnet/December 09/15/The Maronite patriarchate noted that the stances of various Christian blocs that oppose the nomination of Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president have thwarted the adoption of a political settlement in Lebanon, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Wednesday.
Church sources told the daily that the presidential settlement “has been frozen at the moment.”“It is simple, if progress is being made, then Franjieh would have been elected president already, but the firm stances of the three Christian parties have halted the settlement,” they explained. “The settlement does not even include guarantees on the parliamentary electoral law, which is an essential issue for the Christians,” they added. The Maronite patriarchate is holding contacts with all leaders and it has not yet been able to provide the necessary conditions needed to hold a meeting for the four main Maronite leaders. “Bkirki does not want to hold such a meeting without ensuring that it will reach a conclusion over the settlement,” clarified the sources. Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi had pledged in recent days to hold a meeting for the Maronite leaders to discuss the latest developments in the presidential file. Franjieh's chances to reach the Baabda Palace had recently made a dramatic surge in the wake of a Paris meeting between him and Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri. The nomination has created tensions among the Christian camps of the Kataeb Party, Lebanese Forces, and Free Patriotic Movement, who all oppose the manner in which Franjieh's candidacy is being proposed. The candidacy has also created a divide between the Mustaqbal Movement and LF, both allies in the March 14 camp. Franjieh's name is being proposed as part of a greater settlement that would revitalize the political scene in Lebanon.

Report: Russian, Iranian Officials Discuss Lebanon on Margins of Regional Talks
Naharnet/December 09/15/Russian and Iranian officials addressed on Tuesday the ongoing political deadlock in Lebanon on the margins of contacts aimed at tackling the various regional conflicts, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Wednesday. Russian sources told the daily that deputy Russian Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and Iranian deputy Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdul Lahyan discussed the Lebanese file during a brief telephone call. Lahyan informed Bogdanov that “the presidential settlement in Lebanon is not ripe yet and more time is needed for it to see the light.”For his part, the Russian official highlighted the need to resolve the presidential vacuum, but he did not delve into the details, said al-Joumhouria. Additional information from Moscow said that head of the Mustaqbal Movement MP Saad Hariri persuaded Saudi Arabia to go ahead with the political settlement that he had proposed. The kingdom did not however pledge to convince regional powers to go through with it. Hariri pledged that he will persuade his Christian allies in Lebanon to agree to it, revealed the daily. He also requested that Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh convince his allies, especially Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun, to go ahead with it. Franjieh's chances to reach the Baabda Palace had recently made a dramatic surge in the wake of a Paris meeting between him and Hariri. The nomination has created tensions among the Christian camps of the Kataeb Party, Lebanese Forces, and Free Patriotic Movement, who all oppose the manner in which Franjieh's candidacy is being proposed. The candidacy has also created a divide between the Mustaqbal Movement and LF, both allies in the March 14 camp. Franjieh's name is being proposed as part of a greater settlement that would revitalize the political scene in Lebanon.

Report: Salam to Convene Cabinet Soon to Finalize Trash Disposal Solution
Naharnet/December 09/15/Prime Minister Tammam Salam is likely to call cabinet to session soon in order to tackle the ongoing waste management crisis, reported the daily An Nahar on Wednesday. Ministerial sources told the daily that the premier will call the government to convene “within days.” They explained that officials have reached the final phase of a solution to end the garbage crisis. Media reports over the past week have said that the finishing touches to exporting the waste are being addressed and set in place. The various technical details of the solution are being tackled, they said. Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb had told media outlets in recent days that he is optimistic on resolving the problem. Lebanon was plunged in a waste management crisis after the closure of the Naameh landfill in July. Politicians have failed to find an alternative for it and the country has suffered from the pile up of garbage in various regions. Citizens have resorted to burning the trash, sparking health and environmental experts to warn of the hazards of such a step and of the ongoing pile up of the waste in general.

3rd Paris Bataclan Gunman Identified after 'Martyr' Text to Mother
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 09/15/French police have identified the third gunman from the deadly attack on the Bataclan concert hall in Paris, Prime Minister Manuel Valls said Wednesday, with the attacker's father telling AFP he "would have killed him" if he had known. "The last time I saw him was two years ago before he went (to Syria)," Said Mohamed-Aggad said. "I have no words, I only found out this morning. I have to pull myself together."
He said that if he had known "I would have killed him myself beforehand."
French national Foued Mohamed-Aggad, 23, had traveled to war-torn Syria with his brother, Karim, and a group of friends from the eastern French city of Strasbourg at the end of 2013, police sources said. The family tipped off police after the Paris attacks when his mother received a text message from Syria saying he had died as "a martyr," iTele reported. "He died on the November 13 with his brothers," the text message read, according to the mother's lawyer, Francoise Cotta. "She was terror-struck by the idea that he could have been one of suicide attackers at the Bataclan," Cotta added, and went straight to the police. "If she had not helped like that they might never have been able to identify Foued," the lawyer said. The two other attackers who killed 90 concert-goers at the Bataclan -- Omar Ismail Mostefai, 29, and former Paris bus driver Samy Amimour, 28 -- had also been in Syria. Two of the gunmen, including Mohamed-Aggad, blew themselves up with suicide belts packed with explosives after the killing spree, while the third was shot by police who stormed the venue with hundreds of people still inside. All three are now known to have been French nationals.
Was on police radar
Mohamed-Aggad was identified at the end of last week after his DNA was matched with his family, the police source said. Cotta said his mother offered the sample herself. A neighbor in the small town of Wissembourg, north of Strasbourg, told AFP that Mohamed-Aggad had lived with his mother until his departure for Syria. He had also been on the radar of French security services as a potential extremist, a judicial source said, and had probably traveled to Syria on false papers. Most of the group from Strasbourg who went to Syria with him were arrested in the Meinau area of the city on their return in May 2014 and are all still in custody on terrorist charges. But Mohamed-Aggad stayed on, according to a source close to the investigation. His brother Karim Mohamed-Aggad said he was the last of the group to "succeed in getting away" and that "he was worried about his brother who stayed on after his wife arrived," fearing he would be "held to account for the departure of the rest of the group."
Others 'killed fighting'
Investigators believe two brothers from the same group who left Strasbourg in 2013, Mourad and Yassine Boudjellal, were killed fighting for IS in Syria. When questioned on their return, the remaining members claimed they had been horrified by what they had witnessed in Syria and had begun returning gradually to France from February 2014. All claimed to have gone to do humanitarian work but prosecutors believe they intended to fight for IS, which claimed responsibility for the carnage in Paris. A huge manhunt is still going on for Belgian Salah Abdeslam, whose brother Brahim blew himself up at the Comptoir Voltaire cafe. Police suspect the Strasbourg group had been recruited by Mourad Fares, 31, considered a key online recruiter for IS. Fares -- who France's Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve has described as a "particularly dangerous individual" -- was arrested in August 2014 in Turkey before being handed over to the French authorities. Nearly 1,500 people were watching the Californian band Eagles of Death Metal play at the Bataclan venue when the gunmen opened fire leaving 90 dead and hundreds hurt. A further 40 people were killed in a string of coordinated attacks in and around Paris on the same evening. The band made an emotional return to the venue on Tuesday, with lead singer Jesse Hughes in tears as he laid a single flower among the piles of tributes to the dead.

GCC leaders gather in Saudi Arabia for summit
The Associated Press, Riyadh Wednesday, 9 December 2015/Royalty and officials from around the Gulf have arrived in Saudi Arabia to meet on regional security issues. The two-day summit began Wednesday in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. Saudi state television showed dignitaries from around the Gulf meeting with Saudi King Salman after arriving at the capital's international airport. Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz meets with Kuwait's Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah (SPA). Also on hand to meet the Gulf leaders was the king's son, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who also serves as the kingdom's defense minister. Interior Minister and Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, the king's nephew, also was there. The meeting comes as a Saudi-led coalition battles a Shiite rebel group in Yemen and amid concerns about the deal between Iran and world powers over the Islamic Republic's contested nuclear program.

Two Israelis stabbed in Hebron, attacker killed
AFP, Occupied Jerusalem Wednesday, 9 December 2015/A Palestinian allegedly stabbed and wounded an Israeli soldier and a civilian in Hebron in the occupied West Bank on Wednesday before being shot dead, the Israeli army and police said. Israeli police said one of the victims was slightly injured and the other was moderately wounded. The stabbed civilian is the son of former Israeli lawmaker Orit Struck of the religious and nationalist Jewish Home party, the politician told Israeli radio. She said her son was lightly wounded when he lunged at the assailant after the soldier was stabbed. Palestinian security sources identified the attacker as Abed al-Rahman Maswada, 21. He was said to be the cousin of another Palestinian attacker shot dead in Hebron on Monday after stabbing an Israeli. Hebron, in the southern West Bank, has been a flashpoint in more than two months of Palestinian knife, gun and car-ramming attacks. Tensions between Israeli settlers living under heavy military guard in the heart of the city and Palestinian residents have been high. Since October 1, almost daily attacks and clashes between Palestinians and Israeli soldiers have killed 113 on the Palestinian side, 17 Israelis, an American and an Eritrean.
Many of the Palestinians killed have been attackers, while others have been shot dead by Israeli security forces during clashes. Young Palestinians have grown frustrated with Israel's occupation and the complete lack of progress in peace efforts in addition to their own fractured leadership. Separately in the northern West Bank town of Tubas on Wednesday, clashes erupted during an Israeli military raid. Three Palestinians were wounded by gunfire while tear gas was also used, Palestinian police and witnesses The person arrested was identified as Iyad Muslamani, a member of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Israel's military confirmed it had carried out an operation in Tubas that resulted in clashes in which it opened fire against "rioters" with live rounds, but did not provide further details.

ISIS suicide bomber kills eight near Baghdad Shiite mosque
AFP, Baghdad Wednesday, 9 December 2015/A suicide bombing claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group killed at least eight people near a Shiite mosque in eastern Baghdad on Wednesday, security and medical officials said. The blast in the Obeidi area also wounded at least 19 people, the officials said. ISIS claimed the attack in a statement posted online, saying a bomber identified as "Abu Salem" carried it out with an explosives-rigged belt. ISIS considers Shiites to be heretics, and frequently targets them with bombings in crowded areas of the capital. ISIS overran large areas north and west of Baghdad last year, and while Iraqi forces have retaken significant territory north of the capital, much of the country's west remains under militant control. Bombings in Baghdad have become less frequent since the ISIS offensive last year, apparently because the jihadists have been occupied with fighting elsewhere.

Syrian opposition talks open in Saudi Arabia
AFP, Riyadh Wednesday, 9 December 2015/Syrian opposition groups began unprecedented talks in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, official media said, in a difficult attempt to unify ahead of potential talks with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. “The meeting saw a broad participation of Syrian opposition groups inside and outside Syria,” the Saudi Press Agency said. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir welcomed the delegates to the closed-door meeting and expressed hope for successful talks. He then left and the Syrians began meeting among themselves, an effort expected to continue until Thursday. Representatives of Syria’s various political opposition groups and military factions fighting Assad’s regime are holding talks for the first since the Syrian war began in 2011.

Syrians leave rebel-held Homs in truce deal
Reuters, Beirut Wednesday, 9 December 2015/Busloads of Syrians including rebel fighters left the last insurgent-held area of Homs on Wednesday under a rare local truce agreement in Syria's nearly five-year conflict that will shore up government control over the city. The rebels and their families are being moved to insurgent-held areas of the northwest near the Turkish border under the deal, an example of the type of local truce U.S. President Barack Obama has said could happen in Syria more frequently. Homs was a centre of the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad. The deal follows a major Syrian army ground offensive to the north of the city backed by Russian air strikes. Witnesses saw 15 buses leave the area. Homs governor Talal al-Barazi told reporters 300 fighters were on board, together with 400 members of their families. The fighters took with them light weapons, he said. The deal echoes a local ceasefire agreed in September elsewhere in Syria under which rebel fighters were supposed to be transferred to Idlib, though it has yet to be fully implemented. Several buses left the Homs district of Waer early on Wednesday and others were queueing up to leave on its outskirts, witnesses said. Children on buses waiting to leave peaked around the drawn curtains and aid workers handed out juice. Barazi said the buses would make a stop in Hama province where rebels who wished to could disembark, before continuing to Idlib, a province that is a stronghold of insurgents including the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front. He described the rebels who left as "militants who reject the agreement", saying they would leave with their families. "The Waer neighborhood arrangements will be completely safe and there will be no weapons in Waer after the implementation of the agreement," he said adding security forces would go back to work in the area and would be the only ones armed.
Peace talks
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitoring group said about 750 people were expected to leave during the day for rebel-held areas in the Hama and Idlib provinces. The United Nations is presiding over implementation of the deal, which was agreed directly between the Syrian sides.
Some diplomats say local ceasefires may be the most effective way of gradually bringing peace to a country where more than 250,000 people have been killed, though one concluded in Homs in 2014 was widely seen as a forced surrender. Syria peace talks involving world powers in Vienna in October called for a nationwide ceasefire and a renewal of U.N-brokered talks between the rival Syrian sides. Priority is being given to women, children and the severely wounded, the Observatory's head, Rami Abdulrahman, said. But the evacuation will include scores of fighters who reject the truce, he said, among them a small group from Nusra Front. A previous truce in Homs in 2014 allowed insurgents to withdraw from the Old City while Waer and other areas remained in the hands of insurgents.. The Observatory said the Waer deal was better for the rebels than the 2014 agreement because some fighters will stay in the district and the deal will be implemented in stages. Humanitarian aid reached the Waer district last week under the terms of the agreement. The Syrian army and allied militia launched a major ground offensive north of Homs city after Russia, Assad's main ally, began carrying out air strikes in support of the Syrian military more than two months ago. Obama said last month there may start to be ceasefires in parts of Syria, freeing opposition groups from Russian bombings. The Homs deal follows the stalling of a separate plan aimed at halting fighting between rebels and government forces near Damascus. In late September, Iran and Turkey, which back opposing sides in the Syrian conflict, helped bring about local ceasefires in the town of Zabadani near the Lebanese border and in two villages in the northwestern province of Idlib. A diplomat tracking Syria said the Waer agreement was an improvement on previous local ceasefires because it was directly negotiated by Syrians, rather than involving outside states. "Some people are talking about 40-50 local ceasefires waiting on the shelf to be discussed," the diplomat said.

SNC: Will for Syria political solution exists
AlArabiya.net - Riyadh Wednesday, 9 December 2015/Head of the Syrian National Coalition Khaled Khoja, who is currently in Saudi Arabia for the Riyadh conference, said there’s a common vision towards a political solution. Khoja added that the aim of the conference is to come up with a joint consensual document for the upcoming transitional phase on the basis of the Geneva I and Vienna conferences. Last month, top diplomats from 17 countries - including key backers and opponents of Bashar al-Assad - agreed in Vienna on a fixed calendar that would see a transition government set up in six months and elections within 18 months. “The major aim lies in uniting the opposition’s stance through the (Riyadh) conference,” Khoja said. Observers Al Arabiya News Channel spoke with said the Riyadh conference is tantamount to the last opportunity to end the Syrian crisis and unite the opposition factions or else we’re facing the option of the “Somalization” of Syria if participants fail to reach a common vision. Syrian opposition groups began arriving in Riyadh on Tuesday morning in an attempt to unite their ranks before December 18, which is the date set for a New York meeting to discuss a political solution for the Syrian crisis.
The Saudi-organized talks, due to start on Wednesday, mark the first time representatives of some of Syria’s various political and armed opposition factions come together since the outbreak of the country’s conflict in March 2011. The goal is to form a unified bloc for talks with Assad that world powers hope can be held before January 1. Some 100 delegates are expected for the talks in Among those attending are representatives of the SNC and of the National Coordination Committee for Democratic Change as well as representatives of armed factions, some of whom follow the command of the Free Syrian Army and others who belong to Jaish al-Islam and Ahrar al-Sham. Jaish al-Islam leader Zahran Alloush said on Monday that he will send delegates to attend the meeting.

Russia denies plans for new bases in Syria
Reuters, Moscow Wednesday, 9 December 2015/Russia’s defense ministry is not developing additional air bases in Syria, RIA news agency quoted the ministry's spokesman as saying on Wednesday. Igor Konashenkov was also quoted as saying the Syrian General Staff had evidence that warplanes from the Western coalition had carried out strikes on Syrian army positions in Deir al Zor province on Dec. 6. Last week, Russian troops were reportedly expanding a military base in central Syria, adding fortifications and developing its runways in a sign they intend to use it as their second air base in the country. The work was underway at the Shaayrat air base, about 40km southeast of the city of Homs, could also signal Moscow’s intention to step up airstrikes in the country’s central region where the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group is active. (With The Associated Press)

Only 30 percent of Russia strikes target ISIS in Syria: U.S.
Baghdad, AFP Wednesday, 9 December 2015/Only 30 percent of Russian air strikes in Syria target the Islamic State group while the rest are against opposition forces not affiliated with the militants, a senior U.S. official said Wednesday. “The Russian air strikes in Syria, primarily, are not attacking (ISIS),” Brett McGurk, US President Barack Obama’s special envoy for the international anti-ISIS coalition, told a news conference in Baghdad. “If you run the numbers, it’s about maybe 30 percent are actually attacking (ISIS) and the rest of the air strikes are attacking other opposition groups... that are not affiliated” with the militants, McGurk said. Russia began carrying out strikes in Syria on Sept. 30 in support of its longstanding ally President Bashar al-Assad, whose regime is locked in a civil war with fractious opposition forces. The conflict, which began in March 2011, has killed more than 250,000 people and displaced millions of others.

U.N. says 12,000 Syrian refugees stranded at Jordan border
AFP, Amman Wednesday, 9 December 2015/Around 12,000 people who have fled the war in Syria are stranded at the Jordanian border, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees said Tuesday, urging authorities to allow them into the country. Warning of “deteriorating humanitarian conditions”, the UNHCR appealed to the government to prioritise entry for the most vulnerable, including the elderly, babies under six months of age and pregnant women. A statement said 11,000 refugees were in Rukban, about eight kilometres from the point where the Syrian, Iraqi and Jordanian borders meet. The remaining 1,000 are in Hadalat, about 90 kilometres further west. The areas are in a rocky desert area, devoid of shade, water or vegetation, the statement “The health situation is deteriorating, with increasing signs of diarrhoea, vomiting and acute malnutrition among children,” it added. “If refugees are not admitted to Jordan and substantial assistance not provided, the lives of refugees will be at risk in the coming winter.”For its part, Human Rights Watch reported that aid workers say they do not have enough resources to assist the growing numbers of people at the border, and that unless Jordan allows them to move to transit sites, 20,000 people will be stuck in the border area by the end of the year. The UNHCR noted Jordan’s “tremendous contribution” in hosting more than 630,000 refugees. It also highlighted the heavy strain that has put on the country’s infrastructure and economy, as well as security Amman says the actual number is 1.4 million, equivalent to 20 percent of the small kingdom’s population.

Anti-ISIS coalition focusing on sealing Turkish border: U.S. envoy
Baghdad, Reuters Wednesday, 9 December /The United States’ new envoy to the coalition it leads against Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) said on Wednesday its priority was to seal the last strip of border between Turkey and territory held by the ultra-hardline group in Syria. The United States and Turkey have for months been talking of a joint effort to clear ISIS from the remaining part of the frontier but there has been no sign of progress. “We are increasing our pressure there,” said Brett McGurk, without elaborating. The aim is to deprive ISIS of a smuggling route that has swollen its ranks with foreign fighters and filled its coffers with illicit trade. McGurk, who was appointed by U.S. President Barack Obama in October, also said that only 30 percent of airstrikes conducted by Russia in Syria targeted ISIS and the rest hit “other armed groups.”“Our air campaign in Syria, we think it’s very effective and we have the data to back that up. The Russian air campaign has different objectives quite frankly,” he said at a briefing for the media in Baghdad. Russia launched airstrikes in Syria at the end of September in support of its ally, President Bashar al-Assad, with the stated aim of hitting ISIS. The West has accused Moscow of mostly targeting Western-backed rebel groups fighting Assad, and a Reuters analysis of Russian Defense Ministry data in October showed almost 80 percent of Russia’s declared targets in Syria had been in areas not held by ISIS.

U.S. Istanbul mission partially closed due to ‘security threat’
Wednesday, 9 December 2015/The United States consulate in Istanbul was on Wednesday offering only limited services with a scaled-down staffing due to information about a possible security threat, the mission said. “Due to information about a possible security threat against the US Consulate General in Istanbul, the Consulate will open with limited staff and services” on Wednesday, the mission said in a statement. It said public services, including visa appointments and non-emergency services for American citizens scheduled for Wednesday had been “cancelled and will be rescheduled for a later date.”The move comes after the U.S. authorities warned on December 5 of an “imminent security threat against the U.S. consulate compound” in Turkey’s largest city. The mission said the U.S. embassy in Ankara and consulates in Adana and Izmir were working normally. Istanbul is on high alert for attacks following three deadly bombings blamed on ISIS in Ankara and the southeast of the country this year. But there have also been attacks on security forces by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and sporadic actions by the the banned ultra-left wing group the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party-Front.

U.S. conducting ‘serious review’ of Iran missile test
Reuters, United Nations Wednesday, 9 December 2015/The United States is reviewing and seeking to confirm reports that Iran launched a ballistic missile last month in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power has said. “The U.S. is conducting a serious review of the reported incident,” Power told reporters after a meeting of the Security Council on unrelated issues. She added that if Washington confirmed the reports that Iran tested a medium-range ballistic missile on Nov. 21 in violation of U.N. resolutions, the United States would bring the issue to the 15-nation council and seek appropriate action. A Western diplomatic source said last week on condition of anonymity that the test of a Ghadr-110, a spinoff of the Shahab-3 missile, was held near Chabahar, a port city near Iran’s border with Pakistan. He said it was a liquid-fueled missile with a 1,900 km range and was capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. All ballistic missile tests by Iran are banned under a 2010 Security Council resolution that remains valid until a nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers is implemented. Under that deal, reached on July 14, most sanctions on Iran will be lifted in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. According to a July 20 resolution endorsing that deal, Iran is still “called upon” to refrain from work on ballistic missiles designed to deliver nuclear weapons for up to eight years. In October, the United States, Britain and France called for the Security Council’s Iran sanctions committee to take action over a test by Tehran of a nuclear-capable missile that month that they said violated U.N. sanctions. So far, no action has been taken by the committee, though Power said council members would be discussing the issue next week. She added that the United States could take unilateral steps against Iran, though Tehran has warned that it would treat any new sanctions as a breach of the nuclear deal. U.S. Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, issued a statement condemning what he described as the lack of response to Iranian missile violations. “Iran violates U.N. Security Council resolutions because it knows neither this administration nor the U.N. Security Council is likely to take any action,” said Corker.

El-Sisi in Athens to press forward on big Eg Israeli-Russian Coordination in Syria: So Far So Good?
Nadav Pollak/Washington Institute/December 09/15
Although their close tactical coordination has prevented any bilateral flare-ups so far, Israel needs to plan for the likelihood that its relative freedom of operation in Syria will diminish the minute its actions interfere with Moscow’s interests.
The November 24 shootdown of a Russian Su-24 in Turkish airspace has raised questions about whether such an incident could occur on Israel’s northern border. The short answer is no. Israeli policymakers made numerous statements last week reaffirming their coordination with Russia, telling the public and allied governments that any such escalation between the two countries is unlikely. On November 28, Amos Gilad, director of the Israeli Defense Ministry’s Political-Security Bureau, revealed that “Russian air force pilots at times cross into Israeli airspace…We know what to do and how to prevent an escalation.”
Gilad’s comment was the first admission that Russian aircraft have entered Israel’s airspace, probably during bombing runs in southern Syria. Russian air force activity in the south is not intense as of yet, so it is safe to say that such violations will not occur often. Even so, this activity is only one of several factors that could create unintended escalation.
NO FALLOUT FROM ISRAEL’S OPERATIONS IN SYRIA
Last month saw numerous reports about Israeli airstrikes in Syria targeting Hezbollah arms transfers to Lebanon. These included an alleged October 30 attack on a ballistic missile facility near al-Qutayfah run by the Syrian army’s 155th Brigade (the so-called “Scud brigade”), as well as a November 11 strike against a target close to Damascus International Airport. Similarly, opposition and pro-regime sources reported Israeli strikes on the night of November 23 that killed eight Hezbollah fighters and five Syrian soldiers in the Qalamoun area.
Although Syrian media reports of Israeli strikes should generally be taken with a grain of salt, several factors indicate that they could be accurate in this case. In addition to the exceptionally large number of such reports in recent weeks, other sources have noted a recent increase in arms shipments from Iran to Hezbollah. Moreover, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has confirmed twice in the past month that Israel is operating across the border. On December 1 he stated, “We operate in Syria from time to time to prevent it turning into another front against us. We act, of course, to prevent the transfer of deadly weaponry from Syria to Lebanon.”
The reported Israeli strikes suggest that the Russian presence has not significantly limited Jerusalem’s ability to target Iranian arms shipments to Hezbollah, and that Moscow might not care too much about Tehran’s interests in bolstering the group’s arsenal. This is probably why Israeli defense minister Moshe Yaalon stated on November 29, “It is good that [the Russians] do not interfere with us flying and acting in accordance with our interests.” Even President Vladimir Putin expressed satisfaction with the coordination when he met with Netanyahu a day later on the sidelines of the UN Climate Change Conference, saying, “We are satisfied with the way our bilateral relations are developing. I note that the coordination mechanism between our militaries that we established on your initiative in response to the escalating situation in the region is functioning, and functioning well.”
OTHER POTENTIAL ESCALATORS
Although the line of communication seems to be working thus far, both countries will need to remain vigilant as new developments threaten to strain the relationship. After the Su-24 shootdown, for example, the Kremlin quickly stated that it would deploy the S-400 antiaircraft system to Syria — one of its most advanced systems. Positioning this system in Latakia gives Russia impressive range that encompasses a significant part of Israel’s airspace. To be sure, Moscow is not threatening to use it against Israeli planes, and the hotline between the two countries will hopefully prevent any operational mistakes. Yet both militaries still need to stay on their toes — the Turkey incident may have loosened Russian trigger fingers, so the Israeli air force may need to be even more transparent about any future operations in Syria.
Another potential point of friction is Russia’s growing presence in central Syria, namely its planned expansion to al-Shayrat Air Base. Located twenty-five kilometers southeast of Homs, the base will be able to accommodate tens of Russian fixed-wing assets. This means that Russia’s air activity in the area will intensify, limiting Israel’s operations there.
Hezbollah and the Assad regime will also reportedly increase their presence around al-Shayrat as part of their push toward Palmyra (which is controlled by the Islamic State). This may include transferring some of their logistical bases closer to Russian forces. Al-Shayrat is only about an hour’s drive from the Lebanon border, meaning Hezbollah could shift its smuggling routes further away from Israel’s reach. Logistical preparation for such a maneuver is not simple, since Hezbollah would need to transfer heavy weapons and other installations undetected, but it is possible. In addition to complicating Israeli operations, such a scenario could lead to friction with Moscow — Israel would be very hesitant to target Hezbollah in central Syria out of concern that it might hit Russian forces by mistake.
Increased tensions with Hezbollah in the north could also strain Russia-Israel coordination. Whenever the group suffers casualties at Israel’s hands, as it reportedly did last month, the probability of retaliation increases. Netanyahu’s latest statement about operating against Hezbollah arms convoys, deviating from Israel’s usual policy of ambiguity, increases this probability even further. In the past, Hezbollah forces have retaliated by using improvised explosive devices or firing antitank missiles against Israeli border patrols. The group does not want to spark any wider hostilities because it is heavily invested in Syria, but even minor retaliation can lead to unplanned escalation.
In the longer term, two main trends will challenge Israeli-Russian coordination. The first is Iran and Hezbollah’s objective to expand their presence in the Golan Heights. In mid-October, Hezbollah and Syrian forces pushed back rebels in Quneitra and regained control over a number of important military posts. Since then, the Assad regime and its partners have intensified their operations in the south, taking more ground with the help of Russian airstrikes. Although the scope of these airstrikes is still small compared to operations in northern and central Syria, any expansion of Hezbollah and Iranian proxies in Quneitra or western Deraa province would be considered a threat to Israel. And if Russia facilitates such advancement with its airpower, Jerusalem’s ability to react will be more limited (see Policy Watch 2514, “Russia in Southern Syria: Israeli and Jordanian Concerns”).
Another trend often belittled by Israeli policymakers is Russia’s deepening relations with Hezbollah and Iran. The intervention’s unremarkable results thus far have shown Moscow that the air campaign has its limits without a capable ground force. In that regard, Hezbollah and Iranian forces have proven to be instrumental on some fronts, with both reportedly helping to recover one of the downed pilots after the Su-24 shootdown. Such operations will bring the Russian coalition members closer together, and as the fighting continues, Moscow might discover that its relations with Hezbollah and Iran outweigh its silent agreement to allow Israeli airstrikes against them. In that scenario, Israeli pilots would quite suddenly find themselves under threat from sophisticated Russian air defenses.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Israel’s first step should be to strengthen the coordination mechanism with Russia. On December 1, Israeli deputy chief of staff Gen. Yair Golan met with his Russian counterpart to do exactly that. The entrance of the S-400 system into Syria might make Israel reconsider some of its operations, but close coordination can help mitigate the risks.
Israeli intelligence also needs to remain vigilant against any movement of Hezbollah logistical hubs closer to Russian operations in Homs, since that would limit the ability to target the group’s weapons convoys. Israel may need to take action against such plans before they are set in motion; at the same time, it could focus intelligence efforts on detecting any new Hezbollah smuggling routes into Lebanon. Regarding possible retaliation by the group or its proxies, Israel is probably already taking the necessary security measures to avoid any loss of lives on the borders with Lebanon and Syria.
Planning for the long term, Israel should maintain close contact with its American partner on these issues. If Moscow eventually decides to stop looking the other way when Israel operates in Syria, Jerusalem may face some tough choices. Accordingly, it is crucial to keep updating Washington in case of any change in relations with Russia, since Israel would need the United States to convey to Moscow the same redlines that Israel has laid out — namely, preventing Iran and Hezbollah from opening a new front in the Golan, and preventing the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah. U.S. support on these issues might convince the Russians to keep tolerating Israeli strikes on Hezbollah.
Finally, it is worth noting that Israel’s communication with the Kremlin since the intervention began is only a tactical coordination, not a strategic realignment. Although Russia seems to be respecting Israel’s redlines in Syria, this is not because Moscow sees Jerusalem as an indispensable ally, but rather because Israel’s actions in Syria have not interfered with Moscow’s plans as of yet. Many Israeli officials no doubt hope that the situation will remain as it is, but they also realize that Russia and Israel are not equal partners. The minute that Israel’s actions interfere with Russian interests, its relative freedom of operation will diminish significantly.
Nadav Pollak is the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Fellow at The Washington Institute.

Nothing in the Middle East Happens by Accident -- Except When It Does
Dennis Ross/Washington Institute/December 09/15
No, President Obama didn't set out to promote Russian and Iranian ambitions in the Middle East, but his policies have contributed to strengthening them.
It is not often that one agrees with the general conclusion of a thesis and rejects its premise. But in reading Michael Doran's essay "Our Man in Moscow," that is where I find myself. His conclusions about the implications of the Obama administration's approach to Syria for Russia's positions in the region and beyond it in Europe are, I believe, generally correct. There can be little doubt that America's traditional partners in the Middle East do feel the need -- as Doran suggests -- to establish a "productive working relationship with Moscow," and that Putin now has far greater influence in the region as a whole.
Whether this will remain true over time is a different question, particularly because the next president can do much to alter this reality. However, although Putin has surely gained in response to President Obama's hesitancy in Syria, Doran seeks to explain that Obama has been driven by a deliberate strategy to make Russia and Iran part of a concert of powers aimed at fostering a new order in the Middle East. In other words, Putin's gain is not the result of the lack of a strategy on the part of the president -- or his fear of getting sucked into what he perceived as a quagmire in Syria -- but the consequence of a very conscious design to make Russia and Iran arbiters in the region.
I know that for many in the Middle East, nothing happens by accident. That is why I have often said that in the Middle East, conspiracy is like oxygen and everyone breathes it. But American policy analysts should know better. Contrary to Doran's thesis, President Obama's policy was not part of some grand plan that he kept hidden from the American public and those working for him.
I was there for the first three years of the administration. The reset with Russia and the outreach to Iran -- for Doran, the two key elements of Obama's plan for a new order in the Middle East -- were not part of a grand Kissingerian geopolitical concept. The aims were more prosaic and immediate.
If there was one broad area that President Obama was preoccupied with when he assumed office, it was stopping nuclear proliferation and ensuring the safety of nuclear materials. Yes, he wanted a new strategic-arms-limitation agreement with Russia -- something he saw as connected to these two priorities. Even more, he wanted to make sure that Iran would not acquire a nuclear weapon and to be seen as credible in preventing it. He understood not simply that an Iran with a nuclear weapon might spell the end of the nuclear non-proliferation regime, but that Israel would feel driven to act militarily to stop the Iranians -- and he hoped to prevent a new Middle East war.
The reset with Russia could help in pursuing these objectives, and especially with regard to Iran. If we were to affect Iran's behavior, its leaders needed to see that they were alone and isolated. Outreach to Iran was designed to test, in the first instance, whether diplomacy could halt the Islamic Republic's march toward a nuclear weapon -- they had 5,000 centrifuges in 2009 when Obama took office. But we also knew that outreach would create real pressures on the Iranian leadership. On the one hand, the issue of dealing with the U.S. was very divisive within the Iranian elite. On the other hand, if the Iranians refused our outreach, whether because of its divisiveness or because of the Supreme Leader's fear that dealing with us would erode the regime's resistance ideology, we could mobilize far greater international support for much tougher sanctions against Iran.
Conceptually, our approach, which I helped to shape in the first term, was designed to build real pressure on the Iranians but leave them a way out if they wanted to take it -- with the objective being that in the end we would be willing to roll back the sanctions in return for a far-reaching rollback of Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Clearly, the approach would be far more effective if the Russians joined us in this, and that was one key motivation for the "reset." So much so, that in his final phone call to nail down the START agreement with Russia's then-president, Dmitri Medvedev (a call in which I was involved), Obama actually pressed him on the need for tougher sanctions against Iran, later to be incorporated in UN Security Council Resolution 1929.
Contrary to Doran's argument, then, the policy President Obama authorized at the outset of the administration was aimed not at drawing in Iran but at isolating it. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, CIA director Leon Panetta, and National Security Adviser Thomas Donilon were all very much of one mind in terms of pressuring Iran. None of them saw this as a policy that in the end would make Iran an arbiter of the Middle East landscape. Just the opposite: they all saw it as a way not only of stopping the Iranian nuclear-weapons program but also of countering Iran's ambition to achieve regional hegemony.
That was certainly also my position, and in the spring of 2009 I was sent to explain our policy to Arab leaders, starting with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. General John Allen, then the number two in Central Command, joined me. Together, we made it clear not only that President Obama was determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons but that he had also authorized an extensive buildup of our military capabilities in the region to counter the whole spectrum of Iranian threats. Indeed, in an early meeting with our own defense officials in which I took part, Obama had spelled out exactly what he meant in saying that all options were on the table regarding the Iranian nuclear program: "If I decide that diplomacy is not going to work and have to use force, don't come back to me and say we don't have what we need to do the job. But don't develop that capability in a way that makes it my only option."
Truth be told, President Obama adopted a tough position toward Iran throughout his first term, especially after the Iranians rejected our outreach and retreated from a deal that would have supplied fuel rods for their research reactor if they shipped 80 percent of their low-enriched uranium out of the country. He was always willing to negotiate, but saw little possibility of this leading anywhere so long as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad remained the Iranian president. As a result, the administration's approach focused largely on ratcheting up the sanctions, plugging holes in the sanctions regime, and expanding our military reach and exercises in the region.
During his second term, and with the 2013 election of Hassan Rouhani as Iran's president, the president's belief in the possibility of a deal would change. Not only did Rouhani run against the policies that had produced Iran's isolation, but he also pledged to use diplomacy to lift the sanctions. A back channel established through Oman now finally yielded Iranians authorized to negotiate discreetly with the U.S., and this convinced Obama -- and his new lineup of senior advisers -- that a deal curtailing the Iranian nuclear program was possible.
The bottom line of what the administration would accept in such a deal changed. In the first term, with Clinton, Panetta, and Donilon in place, the approach had been much more about reducing the nuclear infrastructure to the point where its small size would limit Iran's ability ever to become a nuclear-weapons state and would in itself be an indicator of peaceful intent. In the second term, President Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry, and others concluded that we could not get the Iranians to accept such an outcome but could reach an agreement that would prevent them from acquiring a nuclear weapon for fifteen years and inject transparency into their program for a longer period. With this, the administration shifted its objective from rollback to constraint.
l am convinced the president strongly supported the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) finalized last July because he perceived it would significantly constrain the Iranian nuclear program and could empower the Rouhani constituency. How strong was his support? One Democratic congressman told me that President Obama worked the Hill harder on behalf of the JCPOA than he had on behalf of the Affordable Care Act.
Would things have been different if Clinton and the others had still been his senior advisers? We will never know, though their instinct was to be tougher toward the Iranians and make it clear that they had much more to fear than we did from the failure of diplomacy.
I also don't know what the administration knew about Russian-Iranian plans to increase dramatically their military intervention on behalf of the Assad regime in Syria after the Iran deal was completed. Perhaps Doran is right and the White House held back what it knew, not wanting to jeopardize the nuclear deal. But this misses the point about President Obama and Syria. For him, Syria has always been a quagmire and we needed to avoid being drawn into it. He thinks that the Russians and Iranians, by being sucked into it, are not gaining but losing -- and he has felt that way for a long time. Note what he said as long ago as March 2014: "I am always darkly amused by this notion [that] somehow Iran has won in Syria. I mean, you hear sometimes people saying, 'They're winning in Syria.' And you say, 'This was [the Iranians'] one friend in the Arab world, a member of the Arab League, and it is now in rubble.' It is bleeding them because they're having to spend billions of dollars...This isn't good for Iran...The Russians [too] find their one friend in the region in rubble and delegitimized."
For myself, I have written that while the president may believe that the Iranians and Russians are losing, no one in the region thinks they are. But here, too, what is guiding the president is not a larger strategic design; it is the lesson he learned from Iraq. Ironically, while Obama continues to accuse those who supported the Iraq war of not having learned the lessons from that debacle, one could argue that he has overlearned them. His fear of being drawn step by step into a new Iraq, a new Middle Eastern war that he was convinced could not be won and would cost us greatly, made him deeply reluctant to get involved in Syria. For Obama, it made no difference that this war was not triggered by outside intervention, or by an external threat to the regime, but was rather an internal uprising in which Assad quickly saw that he could be overthrown unless he turned the conflict into a sectarian one in which he could make the survival of all Alawites dependent on his own survival in power.
Obama is surely right to be wary of large military interventions to force regime change in the Middle East, particularly if we are going to create a vacuum as a result. He is also surely right in the abstract when he says that we should not be involved "in someone else's civil war." But not all civil wars are the same. If a civil war produces a humanitarian catastrophe, causes a profound refugee crisis, destabilizes the region, and gives rise to an Islamic State, we have an interest and a need to be involved. And that is the case in Syria.
Syria is not Iraq. It is messy. There are unknowns. But by being so reluctant to be involved, by being so consumed by the costs of action and being largely impervious to the costs of inaction, we have narrowed our options and contributed to a terrible conflict that now affects our interests.
In the Middle East, President Obama is right that we need Arab partners for these conflicts, and we should not bear the brunt of the use of force. We are, however, far more likely to have partners if we convey what we will do -- not what we will not do. Hard power still matters in the Middle East. When we look overly reluctant to use it, when we rationalize every setback, when others doubt our word, we should not be surprised that those partners become unavailable.
Ironically, our readiness to use hard power can be used as leverage to get others to play the role we want them to play. With Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Qatar all clamoring for us to create a safe haven -- and with the Europeans needing it to stanch the flow of refugees -- we could have insisted that if you want us to help create such a safe zone, each of you must first commit yourself to assuming your responsibilities: Turkey to put ground forces into the safe haven in order to police it; Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Qatar to pay for the infrastructure to house the refugees; the Europeans to provide air forces to help enforce the no-fly area; and all concerned parties to agree to provide material resources through a single designated channel, thereby increasing our collective ability to get the Syrian opposition to cohere on Syrian territory.
Michael Doran is right that "President Obama would like to change the global dynamic by positioning the United States to manage threats without resort to force." He is also right that the president seems hesitant to use "traditional military deterrence as a legitimate tool of foreign policy." But he misreads the reasons for this. He misreads how the lessons of Iraq -- and the shadow it casts -- shape the president's views of the Middle East and of our role and the role of power in general.
Rather than trying to explain the Obama policies as part of a design to promote Russian and Iranian power in the Middle East, Doran could have usefully triggered a much-needed debate on what are the right lessons to be learned from Iraq and Syria. We face real threats, and leaving vacuums that can be filled by Russia and Iran -- even if their goals are not identical -- will only add to those threats. But until we can strike a balance between doing too much and doing too little, the troubles in the Middle East are going to continue to haunt us. IS and Iran don't give us the luxury of standing aside. While we must be mindful of not repeating the mistakes we made in Iraq, it is time to stop overlearning them.
**Dennis Ross is the counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute.

Egyptian-Greek-Israeli gas deal
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 9, 2015
Egyptian President Abdel Fatteh El-Sisi has arrived in Athens for three days of talks with Greek Prime Minister Alex Tsipras on a plan for establishing the first ever Mediterranean consortium for the joint exploitation of Israeli, Egyptian and Cypriot off-shore gas wells. debkafile’s Middle East sources disclose in an exclusive report.
Tuesday, Dec. 8, when Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu defended his government's handling of Israel’s offshore gas bonanza in a briefing to the Knesset Economy Committee, he faced a barrage of opposition criticism, much of which focused on unfounded claims that Egypt had dropped out of a deal for the purchase of Israeli gas.
The consortium, in advanced negotiation between the Egyptian president, Greek Prime Minister Alexs Tsipras and Binyamin Netanyahu, is designed for two goals. which are to satisfy the gas requirements of Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority, and to export the remainder to Europe.
The three parties are studying three alternative plans:
1. Transfer the Mediterranean gas to Greece and then pipeline it to Europe: Greek Prime Minister Tsipras raised this option with Netanyahu during his unexpected visit to Jerusalem on Nov. 26. He proposed linking the Israeli gas fields, especially the largest Leviathan well, with the Cypriot offshore Aphrodite gas field and Egypt’s Zohr Mediterranean field, and so make it possible to transfer the gas to Greece and from there to Europe.
Tsipras maintained that the European Union, of which Greece is a member, would consider taking part in the construction of the new pipeline networks together with the gas terminals necessary for exporting it.
2. Transfer the gas of all three countries via Turkey.
3. Build a pipeline from the Israeli oil port city of Ashkelon to Egypt. Western Egypt has two giant gas-processing facilities on its Mediterranean coast, one owned by British Gas and the other by Spain’s Union Fenosa Gas. They could transform the gas to LNG for shipping by tanker to Europe.
In his briefing to the Knesset committee, Netanyahu maintained, “The bottom line is that I see the supply of gas as the basis for protecting (Israel’s) national security, and we need to be strong in order to gain alliances and make peace.”
In Athens, the Egyptian President echoed those sentiments when he said: "More cooperation is needed in these difficult times and in this sensitive area. Such cooperation could be in the exploitation of mineral resources, it could be an economic cooperation and even a military cooperation,” he said.
In other words, joint exploitation of the Mediterranean gas fields will enable the countries of the region to confront the security challenges that they face, as well as facilitate economic cooperation and joint military efforts to protect the gas fields and pipelines.
debkafile’s sources report that El-Sisi, Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades and the Israeli and Greek prime ministers are planning a summit meeting in the coming days to bring forward and seal a deal for the economic consolidation of the Egyptian, Israeli and Cypriot gas fields and the means for exporting the gas.
Despite the arguments put forward against the government’s handling of the gas issue by Knesset members, including opposition leader Yitzhak Herzog and loudest opponent of the gas deal, his fellow party member Shelly Yachimovich, the key facts are indisputable.
Their party, the Zionist Union, constantly advocates a quest for peace based on regional alliances. Yet when an important regional alliance becomes feasible, on the basis of cooperation in the exploitation of Mediterranean gas, its leaders try and shout it down. They are even proposing to endlessly delay the entire project by petitions to Israel’s Supreme Court. This step would make one of Israel’s leading political parties guilty of frustrating one of the most important and productive political and security-related developments Israel has attained in recent years.

Germany: Salafist "Aid Workers" Recruiting Refugees
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/December 09/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7027/germany-salafists-recruiting-refugees
Salafists disguised as aid workers are canvassing German refugee shelters in search of new recruits from among the nearly one million asylum seekers who have arrived this year from Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Some Salafists are offering gifts of money and clothing. Others are offering translation services and inviting migrants to their homes for tea.
"The absolutist nature of Salafism contradicts significant parts of the German constitutional order. Specifically, Salafism rejects the democratic principles of separation of state and religion, popular sovereignty, religious and sexual self-determination, gender equality and the fundamental right to physical integrity... The movement also has an affinity for violence." — Germany's domestic intelligence agency.
"Come to us. We will show you Paradise." — Salafist literature distributed in Schleswig-Holstein.
Many young Muslims in Germany "believe in conspiracy theories, cherish anti-Semitic thoughts and do not think democratically." For these people, "Islam is their only identity." — Ahmad Mansour, former Muslim Brotherhood member, author and expert on Islam.
The main Muslim groups in Germany all adhere to fundamentalist interpretations of Islam and are anti-Western in outlook. — Ansgar Mönter, editor, Neue Westfälische.
The number of radical Salafists in Germany has more than doubled over the past five years, according to a new estimate by German intelligence officials.
Salafists disguised as aid workers are also canvassing German refugee shelters in search of new recruits from among the nearly one million asylum seekers who have arrived in Germany this year from Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
A local preacher addresses Muslim refugees in Münster, Germany. Local authorities later cut off contact with the preacher's organization due to suspicions of radical Islamism. (Image source: Westfälische Nachrichten video screenshot)
The revelations by Hans-Georg Maassen, the director of the Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (BfV), come amid growing fears that jihadists linked to the Islamic State have infiltrated Germany by posing as refugees.
In a December 3 interview with the Berlin newspaper, Der Tagesspiegel, Maassen said that the number of Salafists in Germany has now risen to 7,900. This is up from 7,000 in 2014, 5,500 in 2013, 4,500 in 2012, and 3,800 in 2011.
Although Salafists make up only a small fraction of the estimated six million Muslims living in Germany today, intelligence officials say that most of those attracted to Salafi ideology are impressionable young Muslims, male and female alike, who are willing to carry out terrorist acts in the name of Islam at a moment's notice.
Salafists — who follow what they say was the original Islam practiced in the 7th and 8th centuries — openly state that they want to replace democracy in Germany (and the rest of the world) with an Islamic government based on Sharia law.
In its annual report for 2014, released in June 2015, the BfV said that Salafism is the "most dynamic Islamist movement in Germany." It added:
"The Salafist scene constitutes a considerable recruitment field for jihad. Salafist ideology purports to be based exclusively on the principles of the Koran, and the example of the Prophet Mohammed and the first three generations of Muslims. The movement also has an affinity for violence. Almost without exception, all of the people with links to Germany who have joined the jihad [Islamic State] had prior contacts with Salafist structures. Also in 2014, Salafists tried to draw attention to themselves with rallies and provocations, including the READ! campaign and the Sharia Police."
The BfV was referring to an effort by Salafists to enforce Sharia law on the streets of Wuppertal, a city in North Rhine-Westphalia, the state with the largest Muslim population in Germany. Salafists have also organized a mass proselytization and recruitment campaign — Project READ! — aimed at placing a German translation of the Koran in every household in Germany, free of charge.
A previous BfV report stated:
"The absolutist nature of Salafism contradicts significant parts of the German constitutional order. Specifically, Salafism rejects the democratic principles of separation of state and religion, popular sovereignty, religious and sexual self-determination, gender equality and the fundamental right to physical integrity."
Speaking to Der Tagesspiegel, Maassen also defended himself against accusations that his agency has failed adequately to vet incoming refugees to ensure that jihadists are not infiltrating Germany. He said:
"My agency has repeatedly pointed to this possibility. Looking at the overall situation, I am advocating a differentiated approach. It would be wrong to see all asylum seekers as a terrorist threat. It would also be shortsighted to act as if the flow of refugees will not have any impact on our security. Salafists are trying to win new followers in the vicinity of refugee camps."
Critics say that Maassen is downplaying the migrant-jihadist threat to Germany to protect German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her open-door migration policy.
The editor of Tagesspiegel's editorial page, Malte Lehming, has accused Maassen of trying to "influence the political discourse for the benefit of the government." In a scathing editorial, entitled, "German Intelligence Has Been Discredited," Lehming wrote that three of the jihadists who carried out the November terrorist attacks in Paris entered the European Union posing as refugees and holding false passports.
According to Lehming, this development is "highly inconvenient" for German intelligence, which has been "disgraced to the core." This is because up until the Paris attacks, Maassen had insisted that the possibility that terrorists could enter the country by posing as refugees was, at best, an "abstract danger."
Lehming continued:
"The assessment of the German secret services has been discredited ever since the Paris attacks. The question remains, why did they lean so far out on this point?
"Possibility One: They really did not know. This would be appalling. Hundreds of thousands of refugees have entered Germany unchecked. If the security services have no idea who has come here, this country will have a massive problem.
"Possibility Two: The secret services know more than they are publicly saying, but they do not want to stir up panic among the general public that Islamists could be among the refugees."
Some are attributing the fact that Germany has not suffered a major jihadist attack to sheer luck.
According to Ahmad Mansour, an Israeli-Arab expert on Islam who has lived in Germany for more than a decade, the German government is not doing nearly enough to combat Islamism.
Mansour, the author of "Generation Allah," a new book about the radicalization of young German Muslims, says that the number of Islamic radicals in Germany is likely to grow to such an extent that German authorities will no longer be able to keep track of them.
In an interview with Die Welt, Mansour — a member of the Muslim Brotherhood for more than a decade until he abandoned Islamism in the late 1990s — said that many young Muslims in Germany "believe in conspiracy theories, cherish anti-Semitic thoughts and do not think democratically." For these people, "Islam is their only identity."
Mansour said the German government "lacks a plan" to deal with the problem. He added that much of the blame lies with "highly problematic" Islam teachers who are radicalizing German youth. Commenting on the question of why jihadists have not yet carried out a major attack in Germany, Mansour said: "So far Germany has been lucky."
This assessment has also been voiced by German Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière, who has conceded: "So far we have been lucky. Unfortunately, this may not always be the case."
A poll published on December 3 by the newsmagazine Stern found that 61% of Germans believe jihadists will attack their country in the near future. The poll shows that 58% think the German military should be attacking the Islamic State, although 63% believe this would lead to retaliation in the form of terrorist attacks in Germany. Overall, nearly 75% of Germans believe the government needs to do more to prevent terrorism in the country.
The head of the Federal Criminal Police Agency (Bundeskriminalamt, BKA), Holger Münch, has acknowledged that German intelligence lacks the human resources necessary to track all of the most dangerous Islamists in the country. "Given the number of potential attackers, we must prioritize," he said.
According to the newspaper Bild, at least 60 police officers are necessary to monitor just one German jihadist around the clock.
Meanwhile, some German Salafists are posing as aid workers and are offering gifts of money and clothing in efforts to recruit asylum seekers. Others are offering translation services and inviting migrants to their homes for tea. Still others are handing out leaflets with information about local Salafist mosques. In an interview with the Rheinische Post, BfV Chief Maassen said:
"Many of the asylum seekers have a Sunni religious background. In Germany there is a Salafist scene that sees this as a breeding ground. We are observing that Salafists are appearing at the shelters disguised as volunteers and helpers, deliberately seeking contact with refugees to invite them to their mosques to recruit them to their cause."
In the northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein, Salafists are distributing literature with the message: "Come to us. We will show you Paradise."
In Frankfurt, city officials are now sending teams of police, translators and social workers to refugee shelters to warn asylum seekers of the dangers of Islamic radicalism. The teams are also educating migrants about the German legal system, religious freedom and the equal rights for men and women.
In Bielefeld, a city in North Rhine-Westphalia, Salafists are infiltrating refugee centers by bringing toys, fruits and vegetables for the migrants.
According to the editor of the newspaper Neue Westfälische, Ansgar Mönter, "naïve" politicians are contributing to the radicalization of refugees by inviting Muslim umbrella groups to reach out to the migrants.
Mönter points out that the main Muslim groups in Germany all adhere to fundamentalist interpretations of Islam and are anti-Western in outlook. Some groups have ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, while others want to implement Sharia law in Germany. According to Mönter, politicians should not be encouraging these groups to establish contact with the new migrants.
Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. He is also Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group. Follow him on Facebook and on Twitter. His first book, Global Fire, will be out in early 2016.
© 2015 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Turkey Murders Greatest Kurdish Lawyer
Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/December 09/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7026/turkey-murder-kurdish-lawyer
For decades, it was impossible to bring Turkish military personnel or other state authorities to Turkish courts. Before the negotiation process between the Turkish state and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) began around 2009, Turkish military personnel had full immunity for the crimes they committed against the Kurds. No one could bring them to account. Those who even sought help from the police or gendarmerie could also be exposed to torture, rape or even murder.
It was for that reason so many violations of human rights in Kurdistan could be brought to court only decades after they were committed. To this day, no one has ever been punished. The immunity of state authorities, including "security" officials in Turkey, continues. Human rights cases are dismissed by the courts, one by one.
"We told the court that they did not have the intention of restoring justice, that we had lost our trust in them, and that they were not impartial. And we demanded they change the judge." -- Human rights lawyer Tahir Elci, who was killed by police.
At the funeral of Kurdish lawyer and politician Vedat Aydin, state "security" forces opened fire directly into the funeral cortege and killed 14 people. No one has been charged with slaying Aydin or those who attended the funeral.
On November 28, Kurds in Turkey lost their greatest human rights lawyer, Tahir Elci. The Kurdish township, Cizre in Turkey's Kurdistan, where he was born in 1966, has for decades been exposed to state violence.
Under the guise of "fighting against Kurdish terrorists" -- Turkey's typical excuse for murdering Kurds and destroying their homeland -- the residents of Cizre have been subjected to countless human rights abuses: torture against civilians, extrajudicial murders, forced displacements, and "disappearances." All of Cizre's villages -- like many in other Kurdish towns -- were attacked and forcibly evacuated by the Turkish military in 1990s.
While working as a lawyer in Cizre in 1990s, Elci was arrested, tortured by Turkish "security" forces, and the recipient of repeated death threats. He moved to Diyarbakir, where he continued working as a human rights lawyer. As chairman of Diyarbakır Bar Association, he tried to be there as the lawyer for the victim or the victim's family.[1]
Elci also served as the lawyer of the Diyarbakir KCK (a group of communities in Kurdistan) during trials in which hundreds of Kurdish politicians, mayors, activists, journalists, doctors, university students, children and others were arrested beginning between 2009 and 2012. Elci tried to shine light on the crimes Turkey has committed in Kurdistan: again, torture, unlawful and arbitrary detentions, forced disappearances, forced displacements, murders, massacres, bombings, burned down and forcibly evacuated villages. Elci also helped victims to find justice both at Turkish courts and at the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). [2]
For decades, it was impossible to bring Turkish military personnel or other state authorities to Turkish courts. Before the negotiation process between the Turkish state and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) began around 2009, Turkish military personnel had full immunity for the crimes they committed against the Kurds. The Turkish armed forces were like the Gods of Turkey -- extremely unjust and merciless against the Kurds. The armed forces brutally murdered or tortured Kurds wholesale, sometimes dumping the corpses into wells or dousing them in acid and throwing them into fields.
No one could bring these men to account. Those who sought help from the police or gendarmerie could also be exposed to torture, rape or even murder.
It was for that reason so many violations of human rights in Kurdistan could be brought to court only decades after they were committed. To this day, no one has ever been punished. The immunity of state authorities including "security" officials in Turkey, continues. Human rights cases are dismissed by the courts, one by one.
In such a climate of fear, Elci had the moral courage to defend the victims and seek justice for them, especially after a series of massacres: the Lice Massacre, the Cizre/Cemal Temizoz Massacre, the Kuskonar and Kocagili Massacre, and the Roboski Massacre.[3]
It was a statement Elci made live on CNN Turk on October 14 that marked the beginning of the end of his life.
On a debate program, the topic of which was something completely different, he was asked by a Turkish ultra-nationalist whether the PKK was a terrorist organization. Elci replied: "The PKK is not a terrorist organization. Even if some of the PKK's acts have a terrorist character, the PKK is an armed political movement. It is a political movement that has political demands and a serious public support."
While others involved in terrorism could try to make the same claim, whether true or not, should they be murdered for just saying that? Elci was a peace activist, not a terrorism apologist. He criticized some acts of the PKK for their treatment of civilians. The PKK and other groups, such as the Palestinian Authority (PA), are also worlds apart in terms of their charters, ideologies and acts. If someone asked you a question about the PA on national TV, you could express your point of view. You would not be murdered. But for a comment in Turkey about the PKK, most probably Turkish nationalists, who make up the majority in Turkey, would try to arrest or murder you.
Elci criticized the other participants of the program for being against the negotiation process between the Turkish government and the PKK. Evidently those remarks made him a "criminal." On October 19, a few days after making these statements, an arrest warrant was issued against Elci. On October 20, at the Diyarbakir bar association, he was detained by police in armored vehicles.
"Because of a statement, a bar president is arrested. This is a dramatic moment for the freedom of expression and democracy in Turkey. Right now, a bar president is arrested from a bar association due to his remarks," Elci said.
As part of his defense, he stated:
"That the civilian figures like us -- in the midst of all our efforts -- are immediately exposed to criminal proceedings and a warrant, due to a statement made on a TV channel, constitutes a huge blow to resolving this issue through peaceful means.
"I used my right to free speech that is guaranteed in the constitution and international treaties. While I use this right, I do not have to agree with the way the official ideology of the state or an ultra-nationalist political party expresses and defines issues or phenomena.
"My own way of expression or defining might offend the government or some groups in the society. It can even shake them. But that is why the freedom of expression exists. If I -- as a civilian who lives in the middle of such a heavy issue and as the head of a very important trade body -- cannot express myself freely and cannot utter a view or comment different from the official ideology, how will we resolve such a historic and social issue?"
Elci also pointed out the double standards of the Turkish government regarding different armed organizations:
"Hamas, one of the Palestinian organizations, is recognized as a terror organization by the U.S. and the EU. But the government of the Republic of Turkey officially hosts Khaled Mashaal, the leader of this organization, and applies a state protocol for him as if he were a head of state -- let alone recognizing Hamas as a terror organization. More importantly, our Prime Minister Davutoglu has said that he does not see ISIS, which the entire world sees as a barbaric and savage organization, as a terror organization."
Elci also explained in detail his efforts of making both sides (the Turkish side and the Kurdish PKK) silence the guns and reach a democratic resolution.
Elci was released that same day, with a ban on traveling abroad. The prosecutor demanded a 7.5 year prison sentence for him as punishment for his remarks.
After his release, Elci said that he had received countless death threats on social media and the phone. "They describe killing me," he said in an interview with Channel 4.
"Particularly, on social media, I got hundreds of tweets, which wished for my killing, and in some tweets, they described how they would kill me; they gave details of the killing of me. We got maybe tons of phone calls".
When the correspondent asked him if Turkey is a dangerous place when you cannot speak without receiving death threats, he responded: "Normally, it is not so dangerous but when you are talking about some sensitive problem, such as the Armenian genocide, the PKK, terrorism, some taboo of the official ideology, if you try to question some red line of the government or of the state, it is trouble."
Elci also said in an interview with the newspaper Agos that after his appearance on the debate program, he had been exposed to a smear campaign: "I expressed a sociological observation [regarding the PKK] as a response to the remarks made by a representative of an ultra-nationalist political party who was making propaganda. That they are so violently clamping down on me because of that shows that the government has lost its composure. And this is a very dangerous situation."
The TV channel that hosted Elci was punished. On November 12, Turkey's Supreme Board of Radio and Television (RTUK) fined CNN Turk 225,000 euros for Elci's remarks on that debate program.
On 28 November, Elci held a press conference, in which he spoke about a historic minaret that had been damaged as a result of the military attacks carried out during the curfew imposed by the government just days before in Sur, a district of Diyarbakir. And in his last public speech, called for an end to violence between the Turkish state and the Kurdish PKK.
"Years ago, we watched in dismay the scenes of how the Taliban bombed the Buddha temple in Afghanistan. In the last few years, we have watched in worry and pain how the barbaric group called ISIS has assassinated and bombed the historic accumulation of humanity in Palmyra, in Mosul, in Shengal, the land of Yazidis. As the people of Turkey, we always wished that those things would remain far from us. But unfortunately in a very short time, similar attempts have been made against our historic values and places."
He then went on to say that the historic bell-tower minaret, built in the pre-Islamic era and unique to Anatolia, had been damaged by gunshots two days earlier. "We would like to make an open call from here: We do not want arms, clashes, operations in this area, which is a joint site of humanity and which has hosted countless civilizations. Let wars, clashes, guns and operations be away from this area."
A few minutes later, he was killed with one bullet to his head.
Tahir Elci (center, wearing tie), moments before he was murdered. (Image source: Voice of America)
The video of the shooting shows that the bullets fired by police officers at two persons running away at close-range had no effect, and that one of the police officers switched and then hid the gun he was using (possibly loaded with blanks) with another weapon from his pocket. Then he started shooting at where Elci was standing. Then we see the dead body of Elci on the ground.
It appeared to many as if there may have been an attempt by the Turkish police to make the murder appear as if it had been "an attack committed by the PKK in a shootout between the Turkish police and some groups affiliated with the PKK." After the murder, Turkey's Prime Minister Davutoglu declared, "The gun belongs to the PKK members."
Prof. Umit Bicer , an expert on forensic science, said in televised comments that the bullet must have come from where the police officers were.[4]
Elci was not the first leading activist or Kurdish lawyer murdered in Kurdistan.[5]
The vice-president of the Human Rights Association (IHD), and a prominent Kurdish human rights lawyer, Eren Keskin, said in an interview on IMC TV regarding Elci's murder that,
"This attack has been committed against Kurdistan and the Kurdish people. I feel as if I am in 1992. Back then, we received the death news of our friends every single day. And now we have received the death news of Tahir. These murders, known as 'murders by unknown assailants,' are usually all the work of the Special Forces Command or the Counter-Guerrilla [affiliated with the Turkish Armed Forces]. The government has made a deal with this structure. This decision [to murder Elci] has been made jointly with the government."
Keskin added that ever since Elci made his statements on live TV, she had been uneasy. "We started to wait for this consequence ever since Tahir said on TV that 'the PKK is not a terrorist organization.' All of us, Keskin's Kurdish colleagues, are waiting for the same consequence for ourselves. Everybody is thinking: How long will we stay alive?"
On the day of Elci's murder, the prosecutor's office in Diyarbakir issued a gag order on the investigation.
A lawyer, Ahmet Ozmen, commented: "Since the very beginning of the investigation, despite our repeated requests, the complete file has not been revealed to us. Although there has been no legal decision made, a de facto confidential status has been applied to the case. The parts of the reports and documents of the investigation that have been provided show that it is not being carried out in an effective manner."
After Elci's murder, the governor office in Diyarbakir announced a curfew in the town of Sur, the place Elci was killed. The pro-Kurdish Democratic Regions' Party (DBP) called on its members to carry out demonstrations in protest of the murder. But the police used pepper spray and water cannons on the crowd who wanted to march.
In Istanbul, as well, the members of the bar association wanted to march in protest in the city center. First, the police did not allow them to; then attempted to disperse the crowd with tear gas and water cannons.
On December 1, the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) at the Turkish parliament filed a motion demanding an investigation into the murder of Elci. The motion was rejected by the votes of the MPs of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), an opposition party.
If Turkey truly aimed to achieve a just peace with the indigenous Kurds in Kurdistan, it could have respected a free, informed and constructive debate on all of the aspects of the issue.
But when one wants to talk about the Turkish history or state institutions in a critical way or just differently from the official state ideology, he is discouraged from doing so by the Turkish penal code.
According to the article 301, those who "denigrate the Turkish nation, the state of the Turkish Republic, the Grand Assembly of Turkey, the judicial institutions, the military or police organizations of the state" shall receive a prison sentence.
The only way people in Turkey are allowed to talk and write about the Kurdish PKK is to condemn, curse and dehumanize it.
Kurdish organizations, however, are ready and willing to talk with Turks and their state authorities and reach a humanitarian and non-violent resolution.
But as Turkey has proven one more time with the murder of a peace activist, it evidently does not aim to settle this issue justly or democratically. Ever since the establishment of the Turkish Republic, it makes no distinction between those engaging in armed struggle, legal politics or even peace activism. Apparently, all of the Kurds demanding national rights are enemies in the eyes of the Turkish state.
All one has to know about a country is if its dissenters are allowed to live or are assassinated. In the civilized world, people respond to words with words. A civilized state would protect free speech and its citizens' right to life.
Elci spoke his mind -- without calling for violence. He did not incite hatred or murder. He dedicated his entire life to reaching a peaceful and democratic resolution for the issue of Kurdistan.
But Turkey gave its usual response: intimidation and murder. Turkish authorities seem to have wanted to give the message to all Kurds that, "If you say things about the PKK or the Kurdistan issue that the state does not approve of, you will end up like Tahir Elci."
Who is the real criminal?
Uzay Bulut, born and raised a Muslim, is a Turkish journalist based in Ankara.
[1] His defendants included:
The family Medeni Yildirim, 18, murdered in Diyarbakir by Turkish soldiers in 2013.
The family of Nihat Kazanhan, 12, murdered this year by Turkish police in Cizre, after families had been able to return there in 2009.
Ahmet Ozden, 39, tortured while in detention on March 31, 1993 in the Kurdish province of Batman.
Abdulcelil Imret, the board member of the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HADEP), who was arrested and exposed to mistreatment on January 16, 1998 in the province of Batman.
Behice Alkin, 11, who lost a leg after stepping on a mine in the Kurdish province of Sirnak on May 13, 1996.
See the judgment of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) about the case Ahmet Ozden, who was defended by Tahir Elci. The Court convicted Turkey's State Security Court for its lack of independence and impartiality.
See the judgment of the ECHR for the case of Abdulcelil Imret: "Imret v. Turkey (no. 42572/98)." The ECHR convicted Turkey for violating Imret's right to liberty and security as well as his right to a fair hearing within a reasonable time. Imret's lawyer at the ECHR was Tahir Elci. The court also convicted Turkey's state security court for its lack of independence and impartiality.
Tahir Elci brought Behice Alkin's case to the ECHR. The court convicted Turkey for the excessive length of the proceedings.
[2] To read more about the impunity of Turkish military authorities and obstacles before justice in Turkey, please see: "Time for Justice: Ending Impunity for Killings and Disappearances in 1990s Turkey," Human Rights Watch, September 3, 2012.
[3] During the Lice Massacre, on October 22, 1993, 16 Kurds were murdered in Lice, Diyarbakir, by the Turkish military. Many homes and offices were burned to the ground. Hundreds of people were forced to flee. The trial was able to start only 21 years later. Elci was the lawyer of the families of the murdered. During the trial he said, "After we learned that the defendant would not come to the trial today, we told the court that they did not have the intention of restoring justice, that we had lost our trust in them, and that they were not impartial. And we demanded they change the judge." The trial is still ongoing. The next court date is set for is December 24.
During the Cizre/Cemal Temizoz Massacre, between 1993 and 1995, in the Cizre town of Sirnak, 21 Kurds were arrested who then "disappeared," apparently murdered while in detention. Eyewitnesses in Cizre and said that the senior Turkish colonel, Cemal Temizoz, then gendarmerie commander, was responsible for the killings. The first trial, which came to be known as the "Temizoz trial," was finally held 22 years later. On November 5, 2015, at the end of 47 trials, in which Elci served as the lawyer for the victims' families, all of the defenders were acquitted.
During the Kuskonar and Kocagili Massacre, on March 26, 1994, Turkish military aircraft bombed two villages in the Kurdish province of Sirnak -- Kuskonar and Kocagili. They killed dozens of the inhabitants, injured others and destroyed most of the property and livestock. Elci again served as the lawyer of the victims' families before the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). The ECHR convicted the Turkish military in 2013 of being responsible for bombing the villages. The court added that as the majority of the men from the villages were out working in the fields, most of the victims had been women, children or the elderly.
See the press release of the ECHR: "Turkish military responsible for bombing civilians in 1994; State must carry out effective criminal investigation," ECHR 332 (2013), 12.11.2013.
In 2014, a year after the ruling of the ECHR, the incident was finally brought to court in Turkey -- 20 years after it took place. The victims' families were again represented by Elci. The Turkish military prosecutors, however, knew better than the ECHR. Due to "the statute of limitation," the lawsuit was canceled.
During the Roboski Massacre, on December 28, 2011, Turkish F-16 fighter-bombers launched a five-hour long airstrike on Roboski, during which 34 civilians, were killed, including 17 children, some as young as 12.
For three years, Elci struggled to bring the cases to court, but in January 2014, the Turkish military prosecutor's office dismissed the investigation into the Roboski airstrike.
Elci also attended the commemoration ceremonies for the 1915 Armenian, Assyrian and Greek genocide, and held public speeches to raise awareness about the issue. He called on the Turkish government to recognize the genocide and return the citizenship and property rights of genocide victims and their families.
In a speech Elci made earlier this year in Diyarbakir, on behalf of the Diyarbakir branch of the Human Rights Association on the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide, he called on the Turkish government "to stop denying the Armenian genocide and apologize for it; to return the citizenship rights of the victims and their families; to take steps to help them return to their historic lands; to return all of the seized property to victims' families; to remove the names of the perpetrators of genocide from all public places including schools, boulevards, streets, squares etc.; to name public places after the victims of the genocide; to stop the disinformation disseminated through schools, curricula, mass media, and several state institutions; to recognize the denial of the genocide as a "hate crime;" to erect a monument of "Never Again" in the memory of massacred peoples in order to share the pain of the genocide victims."
[4] "When we analyze in the autopsy the direction from which the bullets came, the positions of other people there, the comments of the lawyers of the Diyarbakir bar association on the incident, although it is not completely certain yet, we can say that they all reach a joint conclusion. They all agree that -- although it is a rough evaluation -- the direction of the shooting, the wound in Elci's body and where he fell show that the killing was done by a bullet not from somewhere else in the street, but by bullets of the police, and from where the police were standing.
"As in most political murders," he said, "we see that the security officials there did not show any effort or reflex to take precautions to protect an important and already targeted lawyer."
[5] On July 5, 1992, Vedat Aydin, a prominent Kurdish politician, lawyer and human rights activist, was taken from his home by men who introduced themselves as police officers. He never returned. The police did not admit that they had detained him. Two days later, his dead body, covered with signs of torture, was found at a roadside outside of Diyarbakir.
His skull had been fractured, his legs broken, and his body held fifteen or sixteen bullet wounds.
The people attending Aydin's funeral were exposed to violence. The state "security" forces opened fire directly into the funeral cortege and killed 14 people. More than 100,000 people took to the street to protest the murders. (from: "The Kurdish Question in Turkey: New Perspectives on Violence, Representation and Reconciliation," by Cengiz Gunes, Welat Zeydanlioglu, Routledge, 2013.)
In 1993, Turkey's constitutional court closed down Aydin's party, the People's Labor Party (HEP). No one has been charged with slaying Aydin or those who attended the funeral.
The next target was Musa Anter, 72, and a prominent Kurdish politician and journalist, who had spent more than 11 years in Turkish prisons for pro-Kurdish activities. He was shot dead in September 1992 while attending a festival in Diyarbakir.
Years later, Elci became the lawyer of his family. Elci said that the trial and investigation into the murder of Anter remained flawed. He accused Turkish authorities of whitewashing defendants, who include former security officials. Two years later, Elci himself would be the next target.
A year later, another Kurdish human rights lawyer and politician, Sevket Epozdemir, 50, was murdered by Turkish "security" forces. He was killed after being kidnapped on the way home from his office on November 25, 1993 in the Kurdish town of Tatvan. His dead body, also covered with signs of torture, had been thrown at the side of a road outside his town. Like Tahir Elci, he was also murdered by one gunshot to his head.
Epozdemir had also appeared as the lawyer for the family of Ferhat Tepe, a Kurdish journalist murdered while in detention on July 28, 1993.

Plan to exclude Turkey from Mideast power struggle
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/December 09/15
Anyone who thinks the Iraqi government’s outburst, the first of its kind since the toppling of Saddam Hussein’s regime, is entirely against the presence of Turkish forces on Iraqi soil is wrong. The total number of Turkish troops is 150 military personnel, and they are present in the vicinity of Mosul, which ISIS has been occupying for a year and a half now. And anyone who thinks the escalating Russian threats against Turkish troops on the borders with north Syria are only against the Turks is also wrong, as this border area is a zone where armies and militias from across the world are competing.
Iran, Iraq and Russia’s mounting aggravation against Turkey implies this is a plan to curb Turkey and cancel its regional role, so that Tehran can become the decision-maker in Iraq and Syria, thus achieving its project without anyone confronting it in the region. This has been happening in a five-year crisis that has seen the U.S. retreat, and do nothing except issue statements of solidarity.
Mosul troops
The Turkish battalion present outside Mosul arrived there at the invitation of the former governor of Mosul for the purpose of training the city’s young men who volunteered to defend their city after Iraqi government forces fled, and terrorists entered the governorate’s countryside. Mosul was left to ISIS, and the Popular Mobilization Forces did not choose to liberate it since the latter consists of sectarian Shiite militias and was actually formed by Iran as an alternative to the Iraqi army. It is therefore Iran who actually trains, equips and directs them.
Turkey will be the next target because Iran and Russia cannot be assured of their capabilities to dominate Iraq and Syria without getting Turkey internally preoccupied.
Truth be told, Iran and Russia cannot be blamed for their clear progress in the plan of regionally excluding Turkey and downgrading its role, as we are amid a huge regional confrontation and the Turkish government itself has done nothing significant to defend its interests during the past years of disturbances.
Turkey was not of aware of the threat, although it has certainly seen it as it is being gradually besieged by these two countries. The region’s characteristics are also changing against Turkey’s interests; therefore, Turkey will be the next target because Iran and Russia cannot be assured of their capabilities to dominate Iraq and Syria without getting Turkey internally preoccupied.
Muslim Brotherhood preoccupation
Turkey’s policy is lost in causes that have no value in the balance of regional struggle. Turkey occupied itself with marginal and media disputes like those related to its battle with Egypt or its support of opposition groups like the Muslim Brotherhood – affairs that are insignificant to Turkish national security. The value of the Muslim Brotherhood is equal to zero in the region’s formula and Egypt’s threat against Turkey is also zero. There’s nothing that justifies Ankara’s insistence to resume adopting this policy! The characteristics of Iran’s plan to dominate the region have become clear. Iran has decided to neutralize the U.S. and NATO by granting them their major request of abandoning the military purposes of its nuclear program, and it has in fact succeeded at that. Then Iran began dominating Iraq and although its number one man, Nouri al-Maliki, was removed from power, it still managed to tighten its grip on political powers and it is currently the decision-maker there amid the incapability of Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi. At the same time, the first military power consisting of Iranian, Iraqi, Lebanese and Afghani militias, formed of around 100,000 fighters, was established in Syria. Iran increased its influence by activating its alliance with Russia which sent more aerial and naval troops to Syria than the Soviet Union sent to the region during the Cold War.
Since Turkey is the regional power parallel to Iran, it’s become targeted via paralyzing its power in Syria and cancelling its presence in Iraq. The Turks cannot be alone held responsible for confronting the Iranian-Russian alliance which is driving forward in the Arab Middle East; however, Turkey is the most important. If Turkey does not reread the map of struggle and reposition itself, it will find itself in bigger trouble tomorrow. Turkey is the one that primarily needs to revive a regional axis to confront the Iranian expansion. However, it cannot do that when among its priorities are causes like that of the Muslim Brotherhood, which for 30 years was an ally of the Iranian regime, which previously tried and failed to help them reach power in Egypt during the eras of former presidents Anwar al-Sadat and Hosni Mubarak

Refugee plight shouldn’t be forgotten amid noise of battle
Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/December 09/15
As the winter is fast approaching and the skies over Syria are filling with jet fighters from almost every corner of the world, it is important to remember also the plight of the refugees and displaced people in the region.
For the first time since the end of the Second World War there are more than 59 million people around the globe who are either refugees, displaced or asylum seekers. It is not a phenomenon that is unique to the Middle East, though the region has definitely had more than its fair share. These people who lost their homes, livelihood and often their way of life, represent a grave facet of the human cost of not preventing or ending conflicts.
Those who block a peaceful solution are the ones who are quick to criticise the role of UNWRA and its work.
There are more than 19 million refugees worldwide, and of them 5.2 million are Palestinian, who are cared for by United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), which was established 65 years ago. Considering the ever increasing needs and demands, limited resources and the constantly changing political terrain, what is requested of UNWRA is nothing short of performing miracles. The case of the Palestinian refugees presents somewhat different challenges than other refugee communities. Their prolonged predicament, since 1948, combined with contradictory international pressures and the lack of a satisfying, let alone just, political solution in the offing make their case rather unique.
Four generations of refugees
The tragedy of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is to a large extent epitomized by the suffering of four generations of Palestinian refugees, who are dispersed between Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and Gaza. Without a political solution, their status and conditions are likely to remain quite grim.
It is made worse in places ravaged by war and conflict. For UNWRA the irony is that in an ideal world there would not be any need for it to exist. A genuine political solution providing a comprehensive and just solution for the refugees would make the role of the agency redundant. However, those who block a peaceful solution are the ones who are quick to criticise the role of UNWRA and its work. Rhetoric aside, in the absence of peace it is an imperative that the humanitarian and developmental needs of the Palestinian refugees across the region are met. These needs can only successfully be provided for through close cooperation between UNWRA, the donor countries which provide the financial support, the host countries and the refugees themselves.
Failure to find permanent solution
No one but UNWRA has the devotion, leadership and expertise to sustain so many refugees in such a complex and uncertain environment and to operate with limited resources. It provides shelter, education, health, social services, and microfinance. Nevertheless, its very existence is a constant reminder of the failure to find a permanent solution. This also creates duality in the attitude of the refugees to UNWRA. As grateful as they are to UNWRA for its services, for being a voice for them and even creating employment, for them it also represents the failure to bring an end to their status as refugees.
Israel’s cynical criticism of UNWRA’s work deliberately ignores the fact that the agency spares it from taking responsibility for the dire conditions of the refugees, especially in Gaza and the West Bank, which it largely created.
It is also the unwarranted duality in the Israeli government’s approach, and that of some of the donor countries, that complicates the work of the organisation. Israel’s cynical criticism of UNWRA’s work deliberately ignores the fact that the agency spares it from taking responsibility for the dire conditions of the refugees, especially in Gaza and the West Bank, which it largely created. Israel blames UNWRA for perpetuating the Palestinian refugee issue and for taking political sides with the Palestinians. Conveniently, Israeli governments, present and past, employed these arguments, ignoring that their intransigence contributed to the lack of a long-term solution for the Palestinian refugees.
UNWRA’s challenges have constantly increased since its inception. The combination of prolonged occupation in the West Bank, blockade and periodical wars in Gaza and the growing political instability in some of the host countries, have a great impact on the organization. It became a tragic routine in Gaza, which endured three massive rounds of hostilities with Israel, which in addition to the appalling loss of lives, also saw infrastructure including housing, hospitals and schools destroyed or at least badly damaged. This delays any plans for continuous development.
Syria: A new dilemma
The civil war in Syria presented a whole new set of issues for the lives of refugees and UNWRA employees. Fourteen members of the organisation’s staff have been killed since the beginning of the conflict in Syria and thirteen are missing. Self-evidently there is a growing demand for UNWRA’s services in the Palestinian refugee camps of Syria, and for those who fled to Lebanon and Jordan and became refugees for the second time in their history.
One of the paradoxes for those who lead UNWRA, especially in these difficult times, is conducting long-term planning without being seen as acknowledging that millions of Palestinians are going to remain refugees for the foreseeable future. Another irony is that the organization is prohibited from having a political view, though it operates in one of the most political environments.
UNWRA is obviously not an organisation of miracle workers, yet for those who follow this U.N. agency closely, it seems to work wonders for the people it looks after and it does so in partnership with the refugees. The organization’s latest winter campaign Share Your Warmth, aimed at helping help the most vulnerable Palestinian refugees to survive harsh winter conditions, is just another manifestation of UNWRA’s important work. Nonetheless, the miracle that everyone should hope for and work towards is finding a just political solution for the millions of Palestinian refugees. A miracle that would make the need for UNWRA obsolete. In the meantime, the organization and its people need all the international support they can get.

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006 Click Here to go to the LCCC Daily English/Arabic News Buletins Archieves Since 2006

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to go to the LCCC Daily English/Arabic News Buletins Archieves Since 2006