LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 24/15

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletins05/english.november24.15.htm 

Bible Quotations For Today

Come to me, all you that are weary and are carrying heavy burdens, and I will give you rest.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 11/25-30: ‘I thank you, Father, Lord of heaven and earth, because you have hidden these things from the wise and the intelligent and have revealed them to infants; yes, Father, for such was your gracious will. All things have been handed over to me by my Father; and no one knows the Son except the Father, and no one knows the Father except the Son and anyone to whom the Son chooses to reveal him. ‘Come to me, all you that are weary and are carrying heavy burdens, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me; for I am gentle and humble in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light.’"

Cursed is everyone who does not observe and obey all the things written in the book of the law.’
Letter to the Galatians 03/07-14: "So, you see, those who believe are the descendants of Abraham. And the scripture, foreseeing that God would justify the Gentiles by faith, declared the gospel beforehand to Abraham, saying, ‘All the Gentiles shall be blessed in you.’ For this reason, those who believe are blessed with Abraham who believed. For all who rely on the works of the law are under a curse; for it is written, ‘Cursed is everyone who does not observe and obey all the things written in the book of the law.’Now it is evident that no one is justified before God by the law; for ‘The one who is righteous will live by faith.’But the law does not rest on faith; on the contrary, ‘Whoever does the works of the law will live by them.’Christ redeemed us from the curse of the law by becoming a curse for us for it is written, ‘Cursed is everyone who hangs on a tree’in order that in Christ Jesus the blessing of Abraham might come to the Gentiles, so that we might receive the promise of the Spirit through faith."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 23-24/15
Airspace fiasco sums up train wreck of a year for Lebanon/Michael Karam/The National/November 23/15
The 2015 Independence Day festival in Beirut/Myra Abdallah/Now Lebanon/November 23/15
IDF has a plan to stem Palestinian terror. Netanyahu & Ya’alon: It will die down/DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 24/15
Iran and Gulf states: Between blindness and hallucination/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/November 24/15
What the Paris attacks should now teach us/H.A. Hellyer/Al Arabiya/November 24/15/
Why has our planet become savage/Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/November 24/15
ISIS’s arrogance will accelerate its demise/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/November 24/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on November 23-24/15
Hariri, Jumblat Agree on Efforts to 'Find Settlement' as Fatfat Confirms Franjieh Meeting
Three Rockets Fired from Eastern Mountain Range Land in Hermel
Man Shoots Dead His Wife and Uncle in Zahle
Hizbullah Slams U.S. Senate Bill Targeting Its Funding
Ibrahim: Response to Terrorism Must Take Place through Global Coordination
Report: U.S. Senate Approves Proposal Targeting Hizbullah Funding
Report: IS Threat against Holy Spirit University of Kaslik was Not Serious
Franjieh: New President Must Reassure All Political, Social Components
H.R.2297 - An act to prevent Hizballah and associated entities from gaining access to international financial and other institutions, and for other purposes.
Airspace fiasco sums up train wreck of a year for Lebanon
The 2015 Independence Day festival in Beirut

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 23-24/15
Object 'Resembling' Explosives Belt Found in Paris Suburb
Terror Alert Stays as Belgium Charges 4th Suspect, Seeks Morocco Help on Fugitive
IDF has a plan to stem Palestinian terror. Netanyahu & Ya’alon: It will die down
PLO's Erekat Blames Netanyahu for Unrest ahead of U.S. Talks
U.S. Warplanes Destroy 283 Fuel Trucks in Syria
Global Watchdog Slams Ongoing Chemical Arms Use in Syria
Cameron Ups Pressure on MPs for Syria Strikes Vote
Syria Opposition Chief Urges al-Nusra to Break with al-Qaida
Kuwaiti Jailed 4 Years over Saudi Insult Tweets
UAE Blames Islamists for Delay against Rebels in Yemen Province
Israeli, 3 Palestinians Killed in Attacks ahead of Kerry Visit
Kerry Rallies Gulf Arabs behind Renewed Anti-IS Push
Tunisia's Marzouki Target of 'Assassination' Plot

Links From Jihad Watch Site for November 23-24/15
Third Paris stadium jihad suicide bomber identified as “refugee” who came via Greece.
White men are biggest terrorist threat to U.S., not Muslims, says Senator Sherrod Brown.
Six Muslim preachers from Britain arrested in Belgium, linked to Paris jihad mass murder mastermind.
Nigeria: Sultan of Sokoto says Islam is a religion of peace that abhors terrorism.
Al Azhar Grand Imam: Dissociate Islam from “extremist attacks”.
Hugh Fitzgerald: Those Muslim “Refugees”.
UK: Muslim who condemned Paris jihad attacks gets death threats from UK-born Muslims who support the Islamic State.
Raymond Ibrahim: Obama’s Love for Jihadis and Hate for Christians.
Huckabee: “Democrats seem determined to defend Islam more than America”.
Sharia UK: London police dive into canal to rescue Qur’ans.
Paris jihad mass murderers changed when they “stopped drinking and started praying”.
Five more Syrians stopped at Texas border — 13 in the past week.
UK Muslim spent his student loan on a trip to Syria to join the Islamic State.
AFDI rolls out Boston #MBTABigots ad campaign.
U.S. grants reprieve to firm aiding Iran in evading U.S. sanctions.
Clock boy Ahmed Mohamed demanding $15 million in damages.
Prince Charles blames “horrors” of jihad in Syria on a failure to tackle climate change.

Hariri, Jumblat Agree on Efforts to 'Find Settlement' as Fatfat Confirms Franjieh Meeting
Naharnet/November 24/15/Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri and Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblat agreed in their Paris talks Sunday on the need to “find a comprehensive national settlement,” Hariri's press office announced on Monday. “Ex-PM Hariri met at his Paris residence with Democratic Gathering chief MP Walid Jumblat, who was accompanied by Health Minister Wael Abou Faour,” the office said. The meeting was also attended by Hariri's advisers Bassem al-Sabaa, Ghattas Khoury and Nader Hariri, it added. Talks “tackled the general situations in Lebanon and the region and the growing political crisis and its repercussions on Lebanon's National Pact, stability, security and national economy,” Hariri's office said. The two men agreed on the need to “exert all efforts possible to find a comprehensive national settlement that preserves our National Pact and Taef Accord's stipulations.”The settlement “must first address the presidential vacuum crisis, … activate the work of government and parliament, and provide a political-security shield for protecting Lebanon,” the statement said. Hariri and Jumblat also agreed to “carry on with the contacts with the rest of the national components and political forces to discuss means to launch and accomplish this settlement as soon as possible.” Meanwhile, al-Mustaqbal bloc MP Ahmed Fatfat confirmed in remarks to al-Jadeed TV that Hariri had met with Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh in Paris last week. The meeting was aimed at “exploring” stances, Fatfat said. The MP stressed, however, that “al-Mustaqbal's stance on the need to find a consensual presidential candidate is firm.”“Every person has the right to belong to any camp, but if Franjieh wants this role, he must embark on practical steps,” Fatfat added. Asked about the Hariri-Jumblat meeting, the lawmaker said it was part of “the continuous consultations and coordination.” Hariri “believes in the need to exert efforts to fill the presidential void as a first step towards reviving the regular functioning of state institutions,” Fatfat added.

Three Rockets Fired from Eastern Mountain Range Land in Hermel
Naharnet/November 24/15/Three rockets were fired on Monday from the eastern mountain range and landed in the Bekaa valley, various media outlets reports. They said that the rockets landed in a field in the Hermel area. No one was injured in the incident.
Rockets fired in the fighting in neighboring Syria frequently land in border areas in Lebanon.

Man Shoots Dead His Wife and Uncle in Zahle
Naharnet/November 24/15/A man was arrested Monday after killing his wife and uncle in the Bekaa city of Zahle. George Abdul Sater “brandished an assault rifle in connection with previous disputes with his wife, which prompted his uncle, Toufic, to intervene in a bid to calm him down,” state-run National News Agency reported. “But George opened fire on his uncle, killing him on the spot, before shooting at his wife and wounding her in the neck,” NNA said. The wife was rushed in critical condition to the Tal Shiha hospital where she soon succumbed to her wounds, the agency added. It noted that both George and his wife are in their fifties. The man managed to flee the scene before he was arrested later in the day on the Internal Security Forces checkpoint in Dahr al-Baydar, the ISF said. He was “rushed to hospital after he fell ill,” the ISF added.

Hizbullah Slams U.S. Senate Bill Targeting Its Funding
Associated Press/Naharnet/November 24/15/Hizbullah condemned Monday a bill approved by the U.S. Senate to block its financing, describing it as "a new crime by American institutions against our people and nation."The party said in a statement that the "American aggression" the group is facing is the price for "resisting all evil projects against our holy places, rights, nations and people."Last week, the U.S. Senate approved a bill led by New Hampshire Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and Florida Republican Marco Rubio to block financing to Hizbullah and limit its access to logistical support. The bill aims to sanction international financial institutions that “knowingly engage in business with Hizbullah and its enablers,” The Associated Press said.
It also identifies the group's satellite and Internet providers, which support its television network Al-Manar.

Ibrahim: Response to Terrorism Must Take Place through Global Coordination
Naharnet/November 24/15/General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim reassured on Monday the Lebanese people that the various security agencies have taken “serious” measures to preserve stability in the country, reported Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3). He told the radio station: “Terrorism does not know boundaries and does not have geographic limits.”“Responding to terrorism must take place through coordination between the targeted countries,” he remarked. “We have pledged our loyalty to the nation and nothing else,” he declared. “We are determined and insistent on performing our duties and on being faithful to our vow,” added Ibrahim. On November 12, Lebanon was a victim of a twin suicide bombing in Beirut's suburbs of Bourj al-Barajneh. At least 43 people were killed in the attack that was claimed by the Islamic State group.

Report: U.S. Senate Approves Proposal Targeting Hizbullah Funding
Naharnet/November 24/15/The United States Senate approved over the weekend a bill that targets Hizbullah's finances, which includes institutions and people funding the party, reported the daily An Nahar on Monday. The bill won the majority of votes of the Senate. It calls for the U.S. Department of State to identify the media outlets that back and fund Hizbullah, such as al-Manar television. It demanded the U.S. Treasury to impose “harsh conditions” against any foreign side that facilitates operations or launders money or conspires to send funds to people or organizations linked to the party. In addition, the bill called for listing Hizbullah as a party that smuggles foreign drugs and that it be labeled as an international criminal organization. It urged the U.S. president and secretary of state to send reports to Congress on Hizbullah's financial activity and its drug smuggling operations, said An Nahar. This also includes sending reports on countries that support Hizbullah, whereby the party has formed logistic, donation, and money-laundering networks, continued the daily. The report should stipulate whether these countries are taking the sufficient measures to target Hizbullah's financial network. In March, Hizbullah and Iran were no longer enrolled on a U.S. list of terror threats, according to an annual report by the U.S. National Intelligence that was delivered to the Senate.The report noted that Hizbullah and Tehran, which comprise along with Syria and other organizations the “axis of resistance” that oppose Israel and Western policies in the Middle East, have exerted efforts to combat the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria.

Report: IS Threat against Holy Spirit University of Kaslik was Not Serious
Naharnet/November 24/15/The alleged threat issued by the Islamic State extremist group against the Holy Spirit University of Kaslik was “not serious”, security sources told the daily An Nahar on Monday. They stressed that no security agency had confirmed the threat against the university. Political circles have instead voiced concerns that some sides are attempting to create an atmosphere of fear among the Lebanese people ahead of the holiday season. Moreover, the security sources noted how Independence Day ceremonies on Sunday were held without incident, remarking that had the IS sought to target Lebanon, it would have taken the opportunity while these events were taking place. Media reports said Sunday that the IS had made a list of seven world locations that it would target in an attack. They include three locations in Paris, two in Rome, one in Indonesia, and the Holy Spirit University of Kaslik.
An academic event that was scheduled at the campus was canceled as a result of the “threat.”

Franjieh: New President Must Reassure All Political, Social Components
Naharnet/November 24/15/Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh stressed Monday that the country's new president must “reassure” all of the Lebanese political and social components, amid reports that his chances to reach the Baabda Palace have surged due to attempts by the rival camps to find a so-called political settlement.“Lebanon must remain a cradle for intellectualism and an immune bastion for freedom and solidarity among all Christian and Muslim groups,” Maronite League chief Samir Abi al-Lamaa quoted Franjieh as saying after a meeting in Bnashii. “The new president must reassure all political parties, political and religious forces, and the civil society, which is playing an important role nowadays,” Franjieh added, according to Abi al-Lamaa. Last week, the Marada chief held talks in Paris with al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri. The meeting was aimed at “exploring” stances, Mustaqbal bloc MP Ahmed Fatfat said on Monday. The MP stressed, however, that “al-Mustaqbal's stance on the need to find a consensual presidential candidate is firm.”“Every person has the right to belong to any camp, but if Franjieh wants this (consensual) role, he must embark on practical steps,” Fatfat added.

H.R.2297 - An act to prevent Hizballah and associated entities from gaining access to international financial and other institutions, and for other purposes.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/2297
Summary: H.R.2297 — 114th Congress (2015-2016)
Passed House without amendment (05/14/2015)
(This measure has not been amended since it was introduced. The summary has been expanded because action occurred on the measure.)
Hezbollah International Financing Prevention Act of 2015
(Sec. 2) States that it shall be U.S. policy to: (1) prevent Hezbollah's global logistics and financial network from operating in order to curtail funding of its domestic and international activities; and (2) utilize diplomatic, legislative, and executive avenues to combat Hezbollah's criminal activities in order to block that organization's ability to fund its global terrorist activities.
TITLE I--PREVENTION OF ACCESS BY HEZBOLLAH TO INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL AND OTHER INSTITUTIONS
(Sec. 101) Directs the Department of State to report to Congress annually identifying: (1) satellite, broadcast, Internet, or other providers that knowingly provide material support to al-Manar TV and its affiliates; and (2) the identity of those providers that have or have not been sanctioned pursuant to Executive Order 13224.
(Sec. 102) Requires the Department of the Treasury to prohibit or impose strict conditions on the opening or maintaining in the United States of a correspondent account or a payable-through account by a foreign financial institution that knowingly:
facilitates a transaction or transactions for Hezbollah, or for a person acting on behalf of, or owned or controlled by Hezbollah;
engages in money laundering to carry out such an activity;
facilitates a significant transaction or provides significant financial services to carry out such an activity; or
facilitates any of these activities, conspires to facilitate or participate in such an activity, or is owned or controlled by a foreign financial institution that knowingly engages in such an activity.
Applies specified penalties under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for violations of this Act.
Authorizes Treasury to waive the application of a prohibition for up to 180 days (with renewable 180-day waivers) if in U.S. national security interests, and with congressional notification.
Requires Treasury to identify to Congress every 180 days each foreign central bank that carries out a prohibited activity.
Exempts from sanctions a foreign financial institution that is no longer engaging in a prohibited activity or is taking significant steps toward terminating such activity.
TITLE II--REPORTS ON DESIGNATION OF HEZBOLLAH AS A SIGNIFICANT FOREIGN NARCOTICS TRAFFICKER AND A SIGNIFICANT TRANSNATIONAL CRIMINAL ORGANIZATION
(Sec. 201) Directs the President to report to Congress on whether Hezbollah meets the criteria for designation as a significant foreign narcotics trafficker, and if the President determines that Hezbollah does not meet such criteria, a detailed justification as to which criteria have not been met.
(Sec. 202) Expresses the sense of Congress that: (1) Hezbollah meets the criteria for designation as a significant transnational criminal organization under Executive Order No. 13581, and (2) the President should designate Hezbollah as a significant transnational criminal organization.
Directs the President to report to Congress on whether Hezbollah meets or does not meet the criteria for such designation.
(Sec. 203) Requires the State Department to report to Congress regarding actions taken through the Department's rewards program to obtain information on Hezbollah's fund raising, financing, and money laundering activities.
(Sec. 204) Directs the President to report to Congress regarding:
countries that support Hezbollah, in which Hezbollah maintains important portions of its global logistics networks, or in which Hezbollah conducts significant fund raising, financing, or money laundering activities;
an assessment of whether a country is taking adequate measures to disrupt Hezbollah's networks and activities within that country; and
methods that Hezbollah, or any of its agents or affiliates, utilizes to raise or transfer funds, including trade-based money laundering, the use of foreign exchange houses, and free-trade zones.
Requires the State Department, Treasury, and other applicable federal departments and agencies to brief Congress every 180 days on the disposition of Hezbollah's assets and activities related to fund raising, financing, and money laundering assets and activities.
TITLE III--MISCELLANEOUS PROVISIONS
(Sec. 301) Declares that nothing in this Act shall apply to authorized U.S. intelligence activities.
(Sec. 302) Directs the President to promulgate implementing regulations.
(Sec. 303) States that this Act shall cease to be in effect 30 days after the President certifies to Congress that Hezbollah:
is no longer designated as a foreign terrorist organization;
is no longer listed in the Annex to Executive Order 13224 (blocking property and prohibiting transactions with persons who commit or support terrorism); and
poses no significant threat to U.S. national security, interests, or allies.

Airspace fiasco sums up train wreck of a year for Lebanon
Michael Karam/The National/November 23/15
http://www.thenational.ae/business/the-life/airspace-fiasco-sums-up-train-wreck-of-a-year-for-lebanon
On Friday night I was in Malmo, south-west Sweden, when I received a call from an agitated Mrs Karam who told me that I wouldn’t be flying to Beirut on Sunday because … wait for it … the Russians had requested that Lebanon close its airspace for 72 hours. This was while it “conducted military manoeuvres”, which was presumably shorthand for sticking it to ISIS.
Surely not? Beirut airport is a crucial economic artery. Had Hizbollah, which doesn’t really care about such things and whose soldiers are fighting alongside Russian troops in Syria, applied pressure on the government of Tammam Salam? Not according to the local media, which was reporting that it was the Russian navy that had … again wait for it … “faxed” its intentions to the Lebanese civil aviation authorities, bypassing the seat of government completely. Curiously, the Russian ambassador to Lebanon announced that he knew nothing about it either.
One of the advantages of being a small and intimate nation is that we can still talk to humans and so I phone a friend who works for Middle East Airlines at Heathrow. She told me her phone had being ringing non-stop since the rumour broke, but the good news was that flights were leaving London on schedule. There had been no cancellations. Business class is fully booked and BA had not cancelled its flights to Beirut. Apparently we were just taking a different route into Beirut “as a precaution”.
I wasn’t entirely reassured but decided to go anyway. The confusion was yet another pathetic example of just how far adrift the Lebanese state has become from the rest of the country. No one in the government, as far as I could tell, had really “gripped” the situation.
The year 2015 will surely be remembered as a train wreck. A toothless state has not only showed it is supremely incompetent in the face of an environmental and health crisis of monumental proportions and a security lapse that led to the deaths of 40 civilians in a bomb blast in southern Beirut nearly two weeks ago, but the Salam government has added insult to injury by not even having the decency to step down in the face of its ineptitude.
But the year isn’t over yet. And just as the Lebanese were once again wondering who actually runs their country these days, the Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanon’s largest Christian political party, decided it would throw its weight around, when Simon Abi Ramia, one of its MPs, told the local media that his party would shut off the water supply to Beirut if work on a local dam project didn’t begin immediately. You couldn’t make it up.
The FPM rose to prominence in 2005 after the return of its founder, the former exiled army commander general Michel Aoun. The party promised transparency, vowing to fight corruption and as such appealed to many professional and educated Lebanese fed up with militia politics.
Not only is it now behaving like the political parties it swore to stand against, the party has also recently faced questions over the financial probity of its newly elected leader Gebran Bassil, who is also Lebanon’s foreign minister and Mr Aoun’s son-in-law. It also doesn’t help that the FPM also a staunch ally of Hizbollah.
It is one of the sad realities of Lebanon that even the brightest feel they have to belong to a political party and it is equally sad that the FPM’s supporters ended up backing the wrong party for the right reasons. They are one of the few vertebrae left in Lebanon’s increasingly brittle economic spine and they have a duty to ensure the country’s economy doesn’t disintegrate under the multiple pressures – external and internal – that it faces. Sticking with Mr Aoun and his dubious son-in-law is not helping the cause.
Thankfully we have heard nothing more from Mr Abi Ramia and in the end I made it to Beirut. On Sunday, the transport minister Ghazi Zeaiter revealed the Russians had decided not to hold naval manoeuvres after all and that in fact Russia never requested that Lebanon’s airspace be shut down. “Nobody would accept Lebanon’s airspace be [sic] closed,” Mr Zeaiter said solemnly.
Heaven forbid.
Michael Karam is a freelance writer who lives between Beirut and Brighton.business@thenational.ae

The 2015 Independence Day festival in Beirut
Myra Abdallah/Now Lebanon/November 23/15
Sunday, 22 November 2015. Beirut’s Martyrs’ Square was full of life. People gathered to celebrate Lebanon’s Independence Day in a way that the Lebanese people have not witnessed in past years. For this occasion, various civil society organizations and groups formed since the garbage crisis emerged started calling for protests two weeks prior. They saw today as another opportunity to raise their demands. However, today’s protest was not like the protests of the past few months. Today, people were chanting and dancing. Children had their faces painted with the colors of the Lebanese flag — some wearing LAF fatigues — as they watched with stunned expressions clowns walking on stilts and riding unicycles. Some men sold fresh manakeesh and others pushed trolleys through the crowds, selling sweets and kaak. “It is the first year I feel that I am participating in Independence Day,” said Maryam, 29. “Before, Independence Day was all about a military show where Lebanese officials gather to watch it and the Lebanese people stay home and watch it on television. It used to be a day for the politicians. This year, I feel that Independence Day is ours — it belongs to the Lebanese people now, and this is how it should be.”
A festival of demands
“We would also like to welcome You Stinkand We Want Accountabilityfor deciding to join our protest,” said the official statement of the protesting organizations. In fact, every civil group had a different activity. Offre Joieorganized a march from Baabda, near the presidential palace, towards Martyrs’ Square chanting the slogan: “Cancel the celebration, we are the independence.” You Stink called for a protest in Martyrs’ Square using the slogan: “To be independent from your exploitation.” Leave Us Alonechose to protest for “The Real Independence.” We Want Accountabilityorganized the “Independence March” from Beirut’s National Museum towards Martyrs’ Square. Other groups were also present and raised banners, each related to their organization’s cause. In parallel, the Kataeb Party had an independence activity as well, gathering at party headquarters in Saifi and marching towards Martyrs’ Square demanding the election of a president. A lot of demands were raised, such as the right for women to give Lebanese nationality to their children, a decent health system, an independent judiciary system, fighting corruption, and the right to free education, among others. Other people who were not related to any of the organizing groups also participated and had many demands. “I do not belong to any organization,” said Abu Samir, who is in his late 50s. “I came to demand that the government establish a system that will offer job opportunities to the Lebanese youth. I came to demand this in order to be able to convince my children to come back to Lebanon. I have two boys. One of them is 27 and living in Saudi Arabia and the other is 24 and living in Qatar. They went there because they can work with good salaries and left me here alone. I want them to come back — this is why I am here today.”“My husband is Egyptian and I am Lebanese,” Samira, who held a Lebanese flag and had her children with her, told NOW. “I did not come here to demand anything. I lost hope that anything can be done. I am only here because my children, who are seven and 10, were very excited to participate in Independence Day. They had several activities at school and wanted to come here today. It is a sunny day, so I brought them here to have some fun.”
Security
“Habibi,Hassan, don’t do this — we don’t want any trouble today. Let’s keep it peaceful,” said Fatima, a veiled woman in her 80s, to Hassan, who was trying to climb a building under construction where the ISF banner hung in order to tear it down. Hassan and his friend went up to the second and third floor of the building to remove the banner, which read: “From you, For you, To protect you.” Fatima was with the majority of the participants — few were looking for trouble that might ruin the day. While Hassan and his friend climbed the building, ISF officers watched as if nothing was going on. They later asked them gently to come down. It was obvious that neither the participants nor the security forces had planned wanted any kind of confrontation. It was meant to be a peaceful independence celebration. However, when this incident took place, people with kids tried to move away quickly. “I am here with my wife and children. I do not want them to get hurt if anything happens and we are never sure when things will go wrong. Sometimes the biggest fights can take place just because of a wrong word said,” a man named Melhem told NOW. But there were no security issues at this protest. Not only did none of the participants trigger a fight with the police but the number of police officers was not big and the riot police present were not geared up for a confrontation.
People still have hope
“At our age, we are stupid to keep hoping to see our country independent. But we do,” said two women in their late 60s who were sitting on the curb and smoking cigarettes. “We’ve experienced all types of crises,” one of them told NOW. “We protested for years — we always hoped for the better. Every new government gave us new hope and we thought it would be different from the one before it, and try to solve the country’s problems, but all of them disappointed us. However, it is our beloved country and we do not have any other choice. We still have hope.”

Object 'Resembling' Explosives Belt Found in Paris Suburb
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/November 24/15/A "belt that may resemble an explosive belt" was found Monday in the southern Paris suburb of Montrouge, sources close to the investigation said, 10 days after attacks in the capital left 130 people dead.
The object was found in a dustbin on Monday afternoon, a police source said, confirming information reported by France Info radio. The belt, which was found by dustmen, is being analyzed "to confirm whether it is explosive," a source close to the inquiry said. The source said telephone data placed Belgian-born Salah Abdeslam, a key suspect in the attacks who is believed to still be on the run, in the Montrouge area on the night of the attacks. Abdeslam is the subject of a massive manhunt in both France and Belgium, suspected of playing at least a logistical role in the coordinated shooting and suicide bombings that took place on November 13. The lawyer of one of the men who has been charged on suspicion of helping Abdeslam escape to Brussels after the carnage, said the key suspect "may have been ready to detonate." Of around a dozen people suspected of playing a role in the attacks, seven blew themselves up: two at the Bataclan concert venue, three at the Stade de France stadium, one at a cafe on Boulevard Voltaire and one during a post-attacks police raid at an apartment in Saint-Denis, north of Paris. The suicide belt worn by a third attacker at the Bataclan exploded after he was killed by French security forces. Francois Molins, the anti-terror prosecutor who is taking center-stage in the investigation, said the vests used in the attacks were made using TATP -- acetone peroxide, a chemical easy for amateurs to make -- as well as batteries and a push-button detonator.

Terror Alert Stays as Belgium Charges 4th Suspect, Seeks Morocco Help on Fugitive
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/November 24/15/Belgium has asked Morocco to share any intelligence it has to help track a key suspect in connection with the Paris attacks, the interior ministry in Rabat said Monday. A statement said King Philippe made the request in a telephone conversation with Morocco's King Mohamed VI, calling for "close cooperation" in the fields of "intelligence and security." Morocco's Interior Minister Mohamed Hassad and his Belgian counterpart Jan Jambon later discussed ways of "implementing concretely and immediately this request" which follows a similar one from Paris. Moroccan intelligence helped put French investigators on the trail of the Belgian jihadist suspected of orchestrating the November 13 terror attacks in Paris that killed 130 people. A Moroccan tip-off, along with other information, helped police track Abdelhamid Abaaoud -- a Belgian of Moroccan descent -- to an apartment block in a northern Paris suburb, where he was killed in a raid last Wednesday. Belgium is home to a large Moroccan community of about 500,000 people.Belgium has charged four people over the Paris assault, including two on suspicion of helping alleged Paris attacker Salah Abdeslam, a French citizen, with escaping to Brussels after the carnage. Just over a week later it emerged that Abdeslam's brother Brahim, 31, had blown himself up outside a cafe in Boulevard Voltaire during the Paris attacks. On Monday, a Belgian anti-terrorism judge charged a suspect with involvement in the Paris attacks, the federal prosecutor's office said, the fourth person to face charges in Belgium over the November 13 atrocities. The suspect was arrested in a series of police raids in Belgium on Sunday night along with 15 other people who were all released without charge, as authorities warned of a Paris-style plot facing Brussels. "The investigating judge specialized in terrorism cases placed into custody a man arrested during the operations of last night. He is charged with participating in activities of a terrorist group and with terrorist attack (Paris)," the prosecutor's office said in a statement. "After thorough interrogation by the federal judicial police, the remaining 15 persons were released by the investigating judge."
Mohammed Amri, 27, and Hamza Attou, 20, were charged last Monday on suspicion of helping alleged Paris attacker Salah Abdeslam with escaping to Brussels after the November 13 carnage in which 130 people died. A third person who has not been publicly named was also charged with involvement in the Paris attacks on Friday and is reported to have helped Salah when he was dropped off in the Belgian capital. Brussels will remain under the highest level of alert for another week due to an ongoing terrorism threat, but schools and the underground train system will reopen from Wednesday, Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel said Monday. "The crisis center decided to maintain the alert level four, which means the threat remains serious and imminent," Michel told a press conference, adding the threat level will be reviewed again next Monday. "We want to thank the eople for their calm and understanding," he added. The army and police will continue to be deployed in force and the country will reduce the number of events with large crowds, for fear of a repeat of the Paris gun and suicide bomb attacks on November 13, Michel said. But he added his government was trying to bring the country "back to normal as quickly as possible" while working with the security services. It decided to reopen schools and the underground metro from Wednesday. "For schools, that means that in the coming hours, we will guarantee a level of security everywhere on the country's territory," the prime minister said. "As for the metro, the aim is to reopen the metro gradually, but starting on Wednesday." The rest of the country will remain on alert level three, which means an attack is considered possible and the threat credible. Brussels has been locked down since Saturday with armed police and troops patrolling quiet streets.

IDF has a plan to stem Palestinian terror. Netanyahu & Ya’alon: It will die down
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 23, 2015,
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon have been at loggerheads with Israel’s military and Shin Bet chiefs on how to grapple with the wave of Palestinian terror sweeping the country for more than two months, with knives, firebombs and vehicular attacks and rising Israeli casualties. The two ministers are convinced that the Palestinian terrorists will eventually succumb to attrition and throw in the sponge. debkafile’s counter-terror experts challenge this premise. The current wave is not only not dying down it is gaining traction. Its methods are such that purely military measures can’t get to grips with the persistent attacks, which are often just hours apart in different locations. In the last 24 hours, the terrorists have spread their wings from Hebron, last week’s hotbed, to places further north. If they are not stopped, they may well move across the Green Line into the coastal districts around Tel Aviv and the northern Afula Plain and Jezreel Valley. At that point, the Fatah’s armed wing, the Tanzim, is more than likely to join the action with firearms, instituting a full-fledged armed uprising against the Jewish State. To pre-empt this escalation and freeze the current wave of attacks, Israel’s military and intelligence chiefs have put forward a 7-point plan of action:
A general lockdown on Palestinian-populated areas of Judea, Samaria and Hebron for an indefinite period.
This lockdown would extend to the Palestinian districts of East Jerusalem.
Its borderline would run roughly along the defense barrier. Electronic tracking devices would be installed in the gaps with security personnel deployed according to need.
The roadblocks thrown up on the side roads leading to Palestinian villages and towns along the main highways, like Route 60 in the Gush Etzion and Hebron districts, have proved ineffective. The Palestinians find ways of circumventing them.
Blowing up the homes of Palestinian terrorist killers has proved disappointing as an effective deterrent to the spreading violence.
Military and intelligence experts are of the opinion that the desired effect of a de-escalation will only be achieved by an ultimatum: Give up terrorism or be cut off from Israel, so losing your jobs and your major sources of income.
Reservists will need to be mobilized on a large scale for this plan’s implememtation.
debkafile’s political sources report that Netanyahu and Ya’alon are not in favor of the plan, each for reasons of his own, but are leaving it open for consideration.
Netanyahu fears that a total lockdown on Palestinian areas will have a negative effect politically at home and internationally. He is also concerned that a shutdown of the Palestinian districts of Jerusalem will expose him to the charge of dividing the capital.
Ya’alon is apprehensive that the Palestinians will deem the lockdown an Israeli declaration of all-out war. An armed conflict would then erupt between the two peoples with full force.
The authors of the plan are convinced that, one way or another, Palestinian terrorism, if not stopped short, will in any case escalate to the point where the prime minister and defense minister are left with no option but to execute the measures they have proposed.

PLO's Erekat Blames Netanyahu for Unrest ahead of U.S. Talks
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/November 24/15/Palestine Liberation Organization senior official Saeb Erekat on Monday blamed Israel's prime minister for nearly two months of deadly unrest, on the eve of key talks with the top U.S. diplomat. Erekat, who has served as the Palestinians' chief negotiator, also stressed in an interview with AFP that he did not condone killings, but declined to outright condemn a wave of Palestinian attacks targeting Israelis. The PLO secretary-general's comments came ahead of talks with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who will meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu separately on Tuesday. Erekat said if nothing concrete comes out of the meetings with Kerry, the Palestinians could move forward on changing longstanding links with Israel, including security coordination. Kerry's visit comes amid nearly two months of violence, including Palestinian knife, gun and car-ramming attacks. The attackers appear to be acting on their own, defying Abbas' calls for peaceful resistance against Israel's occupation. "I condemn the policies of Benjamin Netanyahu," said the 60-year-old Erekat, who will participate in Tuesday's talks. "Yes, and I hold him responsible. I hold him responsible for this deterioration." He accused Netanyahu of cutting off the hopes of young Palestinians by refusing to recognize a Palestinian state according to 1967 borders and allowing Jewish settlement building in the occupied West Bank to continue, among other issues. "We really hope, and I really hope against hope, that Mr. Kerry will succeed in getting from Netanyahu a commitment to carry out his obligations," Erekat said. He said later that Abbas "promised Kerry that we will not move until he comes, so it depends on what he brings tomorrow."But then after that, if Netanyahu continues his games of settlements, dictations, destroying the two-state solution, there will be major, major decisions."
'Destroy hope'
Peace efforts have been at a standstill for more than a year, and Netanyahu has sent mixed signals about his commitment to a two-state solution. At the same time, the Israeli prime minister has accused Palestinian leaders of helping incite the current wave of violence. On Monday, an Israeli soldier and three Palestinian attackers were killed in another day of bloodshed. The violence since October 1 has left 92 Palestinians dead, including one Arab Israeli, as well as 17 Israelis, an American and an Eritrean. Many of the Palestinians killed have been alleged attackers, and a large number of them have been young people. Others have been shot dead during clashes with Israeli security forces. "I condemn those who destroy hope," Erekat said when asked if he saw a need to condemn the Palestinian attacks. "I condemn those who chose settlements and dictation rather than peace and negotiations. And I told you I don't condone the killing of civilians, given it is Israelis or Palestinians. "I'm a man of peace. I want to make peace. I recognize Israel's right to exist." He said that an international investigation was needed to probe allegations of extrajudicial killings and excessive force by Israelis, and warned that "things are deteriorating. Things are slipping outside our fingers like sand."
Erekat said that "when you simply speak about people dying, those people dying are my children and my grandchildren. They are the same people we are supposed to give better lives to. "That's what we promised. But OK, I tell him now: You succeeded Mr. Netanyahu. You destroyed the two-state solution. You destroyed (the) Palestinian moderate camp." U.S. officials said they were not expecting to strike any new agreement on a return to peace talks during Kerry's visit, and would simply try to walk the parties back from the immediate violence. Abbas in his speech to the United Nations in September said he was no longer bound by accords with Israel, saying "we will not remain the only ones committed to the implementation of these agreements." There have been threats to pull out off the 1990s Oslo accords, which formed the basis of the peace process but have not led to an independent Palestinian state. Erekat said a lack of immediate progress could result in concrete actions taken, including involving security coordination with Israel. "We want people to start asking Netanyahu to put his money where his mouth is," Erekat said. "We want deeds, not words."

U.S. Warplanes Destroy 283 Fuel Trucks in Syria
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/November 24/15/U.S. warplanes have destroyed 283 fuel tankers that were being used to transport oil to help fund the Islamic State group in eastern Syria, officials said Monday. The huge air raid is another milestone as the U.S.-led coalition intensifies its campaign against the jihadists and focuses on their oil-smuggling infrastructure, estimated to net the group some $500 million a year. Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis said the strike occurred Saturday between Al Hasakah and Dayr Az Zawr in the east. It came less than a week after another, similar strike destroyed 116 IS fuel trucks. Just as in that earlier case, U.S. jets on Saturday first conducted a low-flying "show of force" over the trucks, then dropped leaflets telling drivers to flee. The Pentagon says that while the trucks were being used to support the IS group, the drivers themselves were not thought to be jihadists.
U.S. A-10 air-to-ground attack planes and AC-130 gunships then destroyed the tankers, Davis said, adding there had been no reports of civilian casualties. "We have very methodically gone through this to ensure that we are doing this in a way that is humane and not going to cause civilian casualties," Davis said, while "also recognizing the fact that these trucks are an integral link in the revenue stream that is providing revenue ... to ISIL." Russia, which is conducting a separate air campaign in Syria, claims to have destroyed dozens of fuel trucks and has declared a "free hunt" for any trucks carrying oil "belonging to terrorists" in IS-controlled areas. A U.S. military spokesman said that in the earlier U.S. strike that destroyed 116 trucks, the leaflets dropped stated: "Get out of your trucks now, and run away from them."

Global Watchdog Slams Ongoing Chemical Arms Use in Syria
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/November 24/15/The Hague-based chemical weapons watchdog Monday voiced "grave concern" at the continued use of toxic arms in Syria, calling for those behind such attacks to be held accountable. A special meeting of the U.N.-backed Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) met to discuss the findings of three reports after investigations in Syria. The body expressed "grave concern regarding the findings... that chemical weapons have once again been used in the Syrian Arab Republic," the OPCW said in a statement. The use of such weapons by anyone "is unacceptable and would violate international law.""Those individuals responsible for the use of chemical weapons should be held accountable." The OPCW investigations did not directly blame any of the parties in the four-year civil war, aimed at ousting Syrian President Bashar Assad. But earlier, a U.S. representative to the OPCW, Rafael Foley, said: "The sad reality is that chemical weapons' use is becoming routine in the Syrian civil war."He charged there was only "one conclusion" from the expert reports that "the Syrian regime has continued to use chemical weapons on its own people." But accusations have also mounted that extremists with the Islamic State group have resorted to such tactics. The OPCW confirmed earlier in November with "utmost confidence" that mustard gas was used in Syria in August during fighting between rebels and jihadists and "likely" killed a child. OPCW experts also concluded that chlorine gas was likely used in an attack in Idlib province in March. Foley also alleged that even though Syria joined the OPCW in 2013 and declared its stockpile of toxic weapons there were still "discrepancies and omissions." This "raises the specter that Syria is maintaining covert stocks of chemical agents as part of a program that is it obligated both to declare and destroy," Foley told the closed-door meeting. "The regime's recent use of chemical weapons against their own people makes abundantly clear that they will not hesitate to resort to such tactics as it suits their cynical purposes," he added, in his remarks released to reporters. The European Union also voiced its concerns saying that "the use of chemical weapons by anybody, anywhere and under any circumstances is abhorrent and must be rigorously condemned." Under a deal hammered out in 2013 between Russia and the United States following a sarin gas attack on the outskirts of Damascus in which hundreds died, the regime pledged to hand over all its toxic weapons to the OPCW for destruction.

Cameron Ups Pressure on MPs for Syria Strikes Vote
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/November 24/15/David Cameron vowed Monday to make his case for Britain joining air strikes on Syria this week as he unveiled a new defense strategy stressing counter-terrorism and intelligence. Cameron said he would make a statement in the House of Commons on Thursday as he steps up pressure for MPs to vote in favor of joining international action against Islamic State jihadists following the November 13 attacks in Paris, which killed 130 people. His comments came as he presented the Strategic Defense and Security Review (SDSR), which maps Britain's military strategy for the next five years. "As the murders on the streets of Paris reminded us so starkly, ISIL (another term for IS) is not some remote problem thousands of miles away -- it is a direct threat to our security at home and abroad," Cameron said. "History teaches us that no government can predict the future... but we can make sure that we have the versatility and the means to respond to new risks and threats to our security as they arise." Cameron earlier on Monday visited Paris, where he met President Francois Hollande and paid tribute outside the Bataclan concert venue, where 90 people were killed. "I firmly support the action President Hollande has taken to strike ISIL in Syria," Cameron said after talks in Paris. "It's my firm conviction that Britain should do so too," he added. In his speech to parliament, Cameron also announced details of "a significant new contingency plan" in case of attacks in Britain, which would include the rapid deployment of 10,000 military personnel to support the police. While British forces are taking part in air strikes on IS targets in Iraq, they are not involved in the international effort targeting Syria due to resistance from opposition parties still mindful of unpopular interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Labor's anti-war leader Jeremy Corbyn is against any military action but Cameron appears increasingly confident that he can get enough support from Labor MPs to pass the vote, particularly after last week's U.N. Security Council resolution authorizing countries to "take all necessary measures" against IS. A Times/YouGov opinion poll last week found that 58 percent of people would approve of Britain joining air strikes on targets in Syria compared to 22 percent against. Labor’s shadow defense minister Maria Eagle also on Monday told BBC radio that "there will be some support from the Labor party for him (Cameron) to do what he wishes" if they approve of his plan. Reports suggest the government could call a vote on the issue as early as the end of next week if ministers are confident of winning it. Cameron on Monday only said that the vote could come "in the coming days and weeks" after a full parliamentary debate.
Cameron's spokesman said he would seek a vote in the Commons when he "feels he has the consensus".
Higher counter-terror spending
The SDSR announced Monday has been planned for months but its emphasis on intelligence, counter-terrorism, cyber defense and surveillance spoke volumes about the threat posed by IS jihadists to European nations like Britain. The SDSR's £12 billion ($18.2 billion, 17.1 billion euros) of extra investment also included the creation of two new 5,000-member rapid reaction strike brigades which could be deployed to conflicts overseas by 2025. An extra 1,900 security and intelligence staff are being recruited. The government is also expected to announce that counter-terrorism funding is being increased by 30 percent in a budget announcement on Wednesday delivered by finance minister George Osborne. The defense budget increases were accompanied by major cuts. Some 30 percent of the defense ministry's civilian jobs are being cut and 30 percent of its land is to be sold. And Osborne faces a row over claims from police chiefs that cuts to the number of frontline officers who do not fall under the counter-terrorism budget could increase the risk of an attack in Britain.

Syria Opposition Chief Urges al-Nusra to Break with al-Qaida
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/November 24/15/The head of the main political Syrian opposition body on Monday urged the extremist al-Nusra Front armed group to break with al-Qaida after a string of international terror attacks. Over the past month the world has been surprised by several terrorist attacks, in Turkey, Lebanon, France and most recently Mali," National Coalition chief Khaled Khoja said. "The recent attack in Mali was claimed by al-Qaida, and in this context, I renew my call to al-Nusra to break its ties with al-Qaida," Khoja said in Turkey. Khoja has in the past urged al-Nusra to break with al-Qaida, which officially embraced the group as its Syrian affiliate in April 2013. But his latest call comes amid renewed diplomacy for a peace deal in Syria and discussion over which parts of the armed opposition will be consulted and included in future talks. World powers meeting in Vienna early this month hashed out a plan for the creation of a transitional government, a new constitution and elections. The plan also envisions a ceasefire across Syria, except in territory controlled by the Islamic State group, which in theory would apply to regions under the control of al-Nusra and its allies. Al-Nusra is part of a powerful alliance known as the Army of Conquest that captured Syria's northwestern province of Idlib earlier this year, and it has a strong presence in other parts of the country. "I call on the honorable Syrian revolutionaries in this group to return to the broad umbrella of the Syrian revolution and spare the country further destruction," Khoja said. Al-Nusra is regarded as a partner by many factions in the opposition because it has focused on fighting Syrian troops rather than seeking to set up a "caliphate" like the one established by its rival IS. Saudi Arabia is to host a meeting next month of Syrian armed and political opposition members to build a common platform for peace talks. Jordan is drawing up a list of opposition delegations that will take part in the peace talks.

Kuwaiti Jailed 4 Years over Saudi Insult Tweets
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/November 24/15/Kuwait's lower court on Monday sentenced an activist to four years in jail for posting comments on Twitter deemed offensive to neighboring Saudi Arabia. The court convicted Hamed Buyabes, a Kuwaiti, of "insulting a brotherly country and endangering diplomatic ties with it" a year ago, the verdict said. The former columnist confirmed the sentence on Twitter, saying he had only been defending the interests of his country during a row with Riyadh over a border port. The sentence is not final as it can be challenged before the appeals and supreme courts. In the past few months, Kuwaiti courts have sentenced activists for writing comments on social media deemed offensive to a number of Arab countries.

UAE Blames Islamists for Delay against Rebels in Yemen Province
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/November 24/15/A key member of a Saudi-led Arab coalition has blamed Islamists for delays in its military operations to expel Shiite Huthi rebels from the key southwestern province of Taez. The coalition on Monday intensified air strikes against the Iran-backed rebels in Taez as an Emirati minister blamed an influential Sunni Islamist party's for the delays. Coalition jets carried out several strikes against rebel positions on the outskirts of Rahida, the province's second-largest city, military sources said. On the ground, loyalist troops and allied Popular Resistance fighters fired Katyusha rockets and mortar rounds at rebel positions, said Fadhl Hasan, commander of the operations to retake Rahida. Breaking the siege of the government-held provincial capital of the same name is seen as crucial for the recapture of other central provinces and for opening the way to the rebel-controlled capital Sanaa.
Pro-government forces have retaken "19 military positions" from the rebels in areas surrounding Rahida since the offensive began a week ago, Hasan said. Military officials have said landmines were hampering the progress of government forces and had caused casualties. Hasan said one of his troops was killed when a landmine exploded on Monday. The advance has also been slowed down by the "betrayal of some Popular Resistance fighters," another military source said. Emirati State Minister for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash tweeted Sunday that "had it not been for the failure of al-Islah and the Muslim Brotherhood to act," Taez would already have been "liberated." The Islamist party al-Islah is a main component of the Popular Resistance which also groups tribesmen, soldiers and southern separatists. The party, highly influential in Taez, is linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, which the UAE has banned as a "terror" group. The United Nations says more than 5,700 people have been killed since the Saudi-led intervention in support of the Yemeni government was launched in March, nearly half of them civilians.

Israeli, 3 Palestinians Killed in Attacks ahead of Kerry Visit
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/November 24/15/An Israeli and three Palestinian attackers -- including a schoolgirl -- were killed in another day of violence Monday, on the eve of U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's visit in a bid to ease the bloodshed. In the earliest attack, the first in Jerusalem for nearly two weeks, two teenaged girls stabbed an elderly man before being shot, police said. A security camera video of the attack appeared to show the girls -- aged 14 and 16 -- in school uniform chasing a man with scissors before being shot by a member of the security forces. He then appears to shoot one of them again while already collapsed on the ground. One of the two girls, who were apparently cousins, died while the other was in critical condition. The man they targeted was identified as a 70-year-old Palestinian, possibly confused for an Israeli Jew, who suffered light injuries. One of the girls' brothers had died two years ago during clashes with Israeli security forces, Palestinian security sources said. Later an Israeli was stabbed to death while another was seriously wounded at a petrol station on the edge of the West Bank. "A Palestinian murdered an Israeli and wounded another in an attack at a gas station on route 443," the Israeli army said, referring to a main road between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv that passes in part though the West Bank. The assailant was shot dead at the scene, while the second victim was evacuated for medical treatment, said the army, which declined to provide more details about the deceased when asked by AFP. In the third attack, a Palestinian was shot dead when trying to stab an Israeli soldier near Huwara to the south of Nablus. The Palestinian health ministry identified the assailant as 16-year-old Khalil Hashash. An 18-year-old Palestinian woman, identified by medical sources as Samah Abdullah, was shot and severely wounded in the same attack, apparently by accident. The stabbings were the latest in a wave of violence since October 1 that has left 92 Palestinians dead, including one Arab Israeli, as well as 17 Israelis, an American and an Eritrean. More than half of the Palestinians killed have been alleged attackers, while others were shot during demonstrations and clashes with Israeli security forces, including along the Gaza border.
'No limits'
The stabbings, shootings and car rammings have overwhelmingly been carried out by so-called "lone wolf" attackers, making it harder for Israel to predict where and when the next assault will come. Attacks initially focused in and around Jerusalem in early October before shifting to the flashpoint West Bank city of Hebron. In recent days, however, they have flared again in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has come under pressure to tighten security and on Monday he discussed a range of new measures in the West Bank. The Israeli leader announced tighter controls on Palestinian vehicles and an increase in the number of so-called "bypass roads" which create separate routes for Palestinians and Israeli settlers. During a visit to a West Bank settlement that has been the scene of numerous attacks, he also said work permits would be withdrawn from the families of alleged attackers. Netanyahu added there would be "no limits" on the powers of Israeli soldiers in the West Bank. Israel has already adopted the controversial policy of demolishing the homes of attackers which it says acts as a deterrent.
Little optimism
Against this backdrop, Kerry arrives for talks on Tuesday with Netanyahu and Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas.The top U.S. diplomat has repeatedly called for both sides to take "concrete steps" to reduce tension, end provocative rhetoric and ensure access to Jerusalem holy sites. But his words have had little impact on the ground. There is also little optimism of moving towards a return to peace talks between the two sides, which broke down more than 18 months ago. "There's no agreement to be reached between the parties right now," one senior U.S. official said. Kerry's task instead is to simply try to walk the parties back from the current conflict.

Kerry Rallies Gulf Arabs behind Renewed Anti-IS Push
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/November 24/15/U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry traveled to the Gulf on Monday to stress the urgent need to unite a region riven by conflict against the threat from the jihadist Islamic State group. Kerry believes his ambitious plan to bring Syria's other warring parties to the negotiating table is the key to isolating and ultimately defeating the extremists. So he came to Abu Dhabi to encourage his Emirati and Saudi allies in their efforts to convince Syria's rebel factions to agree a ceasefire with Bashar Assad's regime. "That's why I'm here," he told reporters, repeating his hope that a ceasefire between the opposition and the government could be struck "in a few weeks." "We're working very hard to accelerate the efforts out of Vienna, to give that diplomatic process life," he said. "You can be confident that the diplomatic front is in high gear, with a very real plan on the table to be implemented."
Last month, 17 nations plus the United Nations, Arab League and European Union met in Vienna to set a framework for a ceasefire and peace talks to halt Syria's civil war. Kerry held meetings with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan and United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan.Later on Monday, he was due to sit down to talk at "great length" with Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir about his outreach to the Syrian opposition. In the wake of the attacks in Paris earlier this month and the security scare in Brussels, fears are rising that IS is gaining in strength and reach. France's President Francois Hollande is due in Washington on Tuesday to lobby President Barack Obama to focus U.S. military and diplomatic firepower on the group. Russia's Vladimir Putin claims his forces are already doing this, dismissing Western and Arab concerns about Assad's rule as a distraction from the main fight. But Washington thinks it can quickly launch a peace process designed to sideline Assad and build a stable Syria while still leading a military coalition against the jihadists. "While there are still foreign fighters trying to get to Syria, there are literally thousands, tens of thousands that have been stopped," Kerry said.
Ambitious plan
He said IS funding from oil exports was being cut off and that the group has lost 25 percent of its territory in its heartland of eastern Syria and northern Iraq. And now, U.S. special forces are preparing to deploy into Syria to help local groups battle IS. The Vienna powers have set an ambitious target date of January 1 for talks and a ceasefire to begin, but the participants have yet to be identified. Saudi Arabia, which supports some of the Sunni rebel forces on the battlefield, has taken charge of assembling a motley coalition of opposition exile groups and armed factions. Kerry was keen to hear from Jubeir how this process is going and whether the key players would be ready for the January 1 target date for talks to begin. These would exclude IS and the al-Qaida affiliated al-Nusra Front. However, they could draw in groups such as al-Nusra's powerful Islamist ally Ahrar al-Sham. The hope is that if a broad enough "moderate" opposition coalition can enter peace negotiations with Assad's loyalists, a path to a political transition can be found. Meanwhile, the various local and international armies which have been drawn into the conflict will focus their fire on hardline jihadists like IS.
Asked whether Washington was under pressure from European allies to work with Russia against IS, Kerry said some of them "were wondering whether it was possible." "And," he added, "under the right circumstances the answer is 'yes', it's possible, but we need to get the political process moving, we're weeks away, maybe one or two weeks."But he warned that if "certain entities" think that by working with Russia the United States is helping Assad cling to power, that would imperil efforts to get Sunni rebels to the table. "And then you'll have greater support going to bad actors which ultimately could fuel greater growth in Nusra and Daesh," he said, using an Arabic term for IS. After Monday's one-day stopover in Abu Dhabi, Kerry was to head on to Israel and the Palestinian territories on Tuesday for talks on an upsurge of violence there.

Tunisia's Marzouki Target of 'Assassination' Plot
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/November 24/15/Tunisia's ex-president Moncef Marzouki was the target of an assassination plot, the interior ministry said Monday, with Marzouki supporters demanding better security for the former head of state. Marzouki "was informed by the interior ministry that he had been targeted in an assassination plan," a ministry spokesman told AFP, without giving details. Marzouki's former campaign manager Adnene Mancer told a news conference that a "terrorist" faction had been behind the plot. Mancer complained that Marzouki's security detail had been cut back in recent weeks. As former president, Marzouki's security was under the jurisdiction of a special presidential unit but "over the past two or three weeks" the interior ministry had taken over responsibility, he said. "When Dr. Marzouki's protection was reduced, the terrorists probably thought that they could act," said Mancer. "If the threats had been carried out, it would have triggered chaos in the country," he said. The murders of two prominent opposition politicians -- Chokri Belaid and Mohamed Brahmi -- a few months apart in 2013 sparked protests and a political crisis in Tunisia. According to Mancer, four agents are tasked with providing security for Monzer and need "better conditions" to carry out their task. "They have to sleep in their cars," he said. Marzouki, 70, was elected president in the wake of the 2011 Arab Spring uprising that ousted strongman Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.A French-trained doctor and fierce opponent of Ben Ali, he stood for re-election in 2014 in a vote won by secular leader Beji Caid Essebsi, Tunisia's first democratically elected president.

Iran and Gulf states: Between blindness and hallucination
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/November 24/15/
In a recent interview with The Atlantic magazine, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter blamed Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries for not confronting Iran regionally. “If you look at where the Iranians are able to wield influence, they are in the game, on the ground. There is a sense that some of the Gulf states are up there at 30,000 feet,” said Carter. However, others’ statements in the U.S. press oppose his opinion. In a recent article in the New York Times, Carol Giacomo - a member of the newspaper’s editorial board - said: “It doesn’t take long in Saudi Arabia to see evidence of an obsession with Iran.” So are Gulf countries blind to Tehran’s threats, or do they suffer from hallucinations of an Iran syndrome? The answer is somewhere in between. Gulf countries are in a state of multi-front confrontation with Iran. They have been funding the Syrian opposition for four years now. They are fighting their biggest war in Yemen against Iran’s followers, who seized power by force and took the government hostage. There are other tense zones, including Libya. As Carter casts blame, he can see that Iran is clearly present in every disturbed area via its proxies. Are Gulf countries blind to Tehran’s threats, or do they suffer from hallucinations of an Iran syndrome? The answer is somewhere in between. The huge Shiite Lebanese organization Hezbollah completely lives off Iran’s funds and arms. There are also the Sunni Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza, the extremist Shiite opposition in Bahrain, and Ansar Allah, which Tehran established in northern Yemen right on the Saudi border. Many Iraqi organizations work for Iran, such as the League of the Righteous and the Iraqi Hezbollah. Tehran has also sent its militias to fight in Syria under the command of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.
Crisis management
Tehran has always stirred problems in the region. Its appetite for trouble increased ever since it launched negotiations with the West regarding its nuclear program. Iran now thinks the West no longer wants to confront it. However, unlike what Carter’s statements imply, tension does not call for raising the degree of confrontation with Tehran. Managing the crisis with Iran today is certainly not easy, and requires strictness and wisdom. Riyadh would not have let Iran take over Yemen via its Houthi proxy. Otherwise, Saudi Arabia would end up besieged to the north (Iraq) and south (Yemen). Riyadh has also not given up supporting the Syrian people and opposition against the Syrian regime, which is a major ally of Iran. Despite the difficult circumstances and crises, Tehran will lose in Syria and Yemen. It will lose in Syria due to the extent of hostility against it and the regime. It will lose in Yemen because the Gulf states are the givers and not the thieves, unlike Iran in Iraq, for example. Meanwhile, Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites are rejecting Iranian domination. The Shiite city of Najaf is leading an administrative rebellion against Iranian influence in Baghdad. We cannot imagine Iranian control of a number of tense zones in the Middle East - this would be costly for everyone. Tehran will continue to be a source of tension and clashes, especially since it thinks Washington will decrease its regional presence after the nuclear deal.

What the Paris attacks should now teach us
H.A. Hellyer/Al Arabiya/November 24/15/
The attacks in Paris remind us all again of the specter of terrorism and vigilante violence on a massive scale – but whether or not we will take heed of the lessons in that regard is another question. The signs are not altogether encouraging in that regard - not in Europe, not in the region, and not in the broader international community. The day of the Paris attacks, I was in Tunisia – a country that had seen its own terrorist atrocities a few months ago in the attack on the Bardo Museum in March this year, and near Sousse in June. It’s a country that almost precisely five years ago saw the beginning of the Arab revolutionary uprisings – and out of all of them, the Tunisian uprising delivered the greatest prize thus far. A consensus-based, progressive constitution, and a political arena where no-one thinks that zero-sum games work. As a result, one hopes, Tunisia will be resilient against militant threats by groups like ISIS – and thus far, Tunisians have shown their mettle. Libya is in the midst of a great conflict; Syria far worse; and Egypt, while having been spared the sort of internecine warfare of Syria or Libya, is facing a dire set of security problems that far too many in the international community worry Cairo is handling badly.
But if Paris teaches us anything, it is the repetition of the reminder that vigilante violence can strike anywhere. It was true in London in 2005, when July 7 happened; it was true in Madrid, in March of 2004; and there were other incidents, and will likely be many more. Much of the world in 2015 – be it the Western world, or Muslim majority states – cannot be under any illusion. Vigilante action by radical groups is not a threat that can be avoided – that is the reality. The task now is to ensure that societies remain resilient when such actions do take place – and take steps to minimize their occurrences.
Politicians and political actors have, unfortunately, the malaise of reacting to crises as they happen, and seldom looking a year or two down the road. There is no single headquarters that the international community can remove or demolish that will result in the end of violent extremism. That is not to say that engaging the problem of ISIS has no military component – on the contrary, there will have to be a hard security solution aspect in order to address the phenomenon of ISIS. But even if Raqqa were conquered by anti-ISIS forces tomorrow, and the entire territory currently held by ISIS in Iraq and Syria were released by ISIS forces, the threat of violence from their supporters would continue. The world needs to recognize that the campaign is a long one indeed. As that campaign is waged, however, we have to consider our response to incidents as they occur. That is true for us in the West, as well as within the heartlands of the Muslim world.
Anti-Muslim sentiment
Within fairly short order, we’ve seen the rise of anti-Muslim sentiment intensify. That was expressed in actual physical attacks, which a noted watch-dog in the UK reported in the aftermath of the French tragedy – it was also made clearly evident by the calls in the U.S. Republican camp, where it seemed presidential candidates were competing in their race to the bottom. Jeb Bush, one of the leading candidates, declared that Syrian refugees ought to be subjected to a religious test – and that Christians Syrians should be the ones allowed in. Donald Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, calling for some kind of ‘register’ for Muslim Americans. These are not terribly isolated political statements – and the sentiment is mainstreaming on a regular basis. In the aftermath of Paris, two CNN anchors almost doggedly accused an anti-Islamophobia campaigner in Paris of denying collective French Muslim responsibility for the attacks – to his credit, he stood his ground, pointing out that French Muslims en masse rejected these attacked. But it was deeply concerning to see such a discourse being promulgated on a respectable television channel of that nature. Within Muslim majority states, many of them do not need to be taught the lessons of Paris, but merely reminded of them. Before Paris, there was Beirut, and there was Baghdad – to name but two examples. Resilience in those countries is paramount – but resilience in other countries is being called into question. What will happen if what took place in Paris, God forbid, takes place in Cairo, or Bahrain, or Kuwait, or elsewhere in the region? What will the response be, beyond the predictable security retort? Is there a recognition of the legitimate social and political grievances that exist – not simply in Syria, but far beyond it, across the Arab world? That these grievances are key elements in any recruitment strategy for ISIS? Is there a realization that the ideological underpinnings of ISIS-style ideology continues to find inspiration in a reading of an interpretation of Salafi thought? Or are we to continue thinking that ISIS essentially came out of a vacuum?Politicians and political actors have, unfortunately, the malaise of reacting to crises as they happen, and seldom looking a year or two down the road. But the road ahead is of deep concern to any who examine the region closely –and we ought to try to pre-empt if we can, and minimize damage if we cannot, from any problems that are on the way. Make no mistake: they are on the way.

Why has our planet become savage?
Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/November 24/15/
These days I find myself in a permanent state of shock, horror and confusion. We live in a world where human life is devalued, where barbarism, racism and bigotry are the new norm. Watching the news is depressing. Desperate people fleeing conflicts finding all doors barred. Women enslaved and abused and children’s bodies seen mangled by shrapnel. And who would have thought that Paris, the City of Lights, would ever go dark, the army would be deployed in the streets or that a government decree would be issued silencing anyone who disseminates theories at odds with the government line as “a conspiracy theorist”. I won’t be surprised if an Orwellian-type ‘thought police force’ is established. People have questions, but aren’t getting answers and that’s the problem. I’m angry too that so many fingers in western capitals are pointing at Islam as the cause of all evils when my faith, one of peace and tolerance, has been hijacked by creatures without souls. When I listen to statements from the mouths of American politicians I can hardly believe what I’m hearing. Donald Trump has vowed to close all mosques and force Muslim Americans to carry special identity cards. What next? Will they be told to pin green crescents on their lapels in the same way the Jews of Germany had to sport yellow stars? Many of his Republican rivals are using the vilification of Muslims as a vote-getting ploy. Likewise Britain, France and Belgium are planning the closure of certain mosques and community centres. Muslims are being asked to disassociate themselves from terror although they are the ones who’ve suffered most from terrorism over the years. Also, Syrian refugees risking their lives to reach Europe have become pariahs overnight. Rather than falsely blame Muslims for the rise of ISIS, there may be other shoulders on which at least some of the blame should fall.A Rhode Island state senator, Elaine Morgan, is calling for Syrian refugees to be placed in camps “segregated from our populace”. “The Muslim religion and philosophy is to murder, rape, and decapitate anyone who is non-Muslim”, she says. Presidential hopeful Ben Carson compares the refugees to “rabid dogs”. All of this hate on the part of politicians merely because fake Syrian passports were deliberately planted close to the bodies of suicide bombers in Paris.
A few questions
In all honesty, I don’t know what to believe any more. Like so many others, I need answers to these perplexing and very troubling questions:
• Why was ISIS permitted to expand over great swathes of Syria and Iraq? According to Fox News, declassified Pentagon documents dated 2012 obtained by Judicial Watch under the Freedom of Information Act “predicts the rise of ISIS and the establishment of a caliphate”. In this case, why did Obama say in September 2014 that its rise took the U.S. by surprise? • Is there any truth to statements from the President of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov and NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden to the effect that the self-ascribed ISIS Caliph Baghdadi, alleged to be formerly known as Simon Elliot , was trained by the Mossad? It wouldn’t be the first time. Morten Storm, a convert to Islam, reveals in a book that he was formerly undercover agent for western intelligence agencies tasked with infiltrating Islamist organisations.
• Why was ISIS’s de facto capital Raqqa permitted to carry on business as usual under U.S.-led coalition airstrikes? And as was quoted in the Washington Free Beacon and elsewhere, Rep. Ed Royce, the Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee complained that “the pilots come back to talk to us, they say ‘three-quarters of their ordnance we can’t drop, we can’t get clearance even when we have a clear target in front of us’?” Is he right?
• Why did it take so long for the U.S. to bomb convoys transporting ISIS stolen oil? And when they were following Russia’s intervention, why, according to the Wall Street Journal, were fliers dropped alerting the drivers to abandon their trucks before they were hit? Which states are buying that oil via third parties? Are there banks laundering the group’s income from oil, gold and stolen artefacts?
• When the British terrorist “Jihadi John” and the head of ISIS in Libya, Wissam Najm Abd Zayd Al-Zubaydi, were so easily pinpointed by surveillance satellites and assassinated, why is it that Baghdadi is so hard to locate and why weren’t highly visible convoys of the terrorists’ SUVs struck?
• Which country or countries are supplying ISIS with heavy weapons? And why are the Kurds and the recognized Libyan government battling ISIS being deprived of such weapons?
• There is a video of President Putin telling journalists at the recent G20 summit that ISIS is being financed by businessmen from 40 countries including those from G20 member states, adding that he provided examples “based on our data”. If he’s correct then, why aren’t those concerned being tracked down and arrested?
• Why did Israel open its hospitals to treat injured Al-Qaeda and Nusra Front fighters, as revealed by the Wall Street Journal? Similarly, the Turkish newspaper Sunday’s Zaman quotes a nurse working in a hospital in Mersin saying she’s sick of treating ISIS fighters. The Washington Post asserted it was told by ISIS commander, “We used to have some fighters – even high level members of ISIS – getting treated in Turkish hospitals.” If that’s so, what was the reason for treating monsters, who execute children, bury women alive and place men in a wire cage to be drowned, with such compassion?
• Who are the so-called ‘moderate rebels’ the Obama administration is backing after they’ve been grouped together under the new banner “Victory Army” and are reports that they are fighting alongside Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat Al-Nusra accurate?
Why is it that President Obama and David Cameron shirk from branding the Muslim Brotherhood - the ideological forerunner of all Takfiri groups – as terrorist?
Early last year, an alleged British lobbyist for the Muslim Brotherhood was invited to meet President Obama at the White House. In February this year, a Muslim Brotherhood Judge was pictured making the four-fingered Rabaa sign at the State Department following his meeting with officials and when White House spokeswoman Jan Psaki was questioned by reporters she appeared to show that she had no issue with the photograph – a poke in the eye to the Egyptian government.
This month, however, lawmakers in both the House and the Senate are pushing for a bill to be passed that would declare the Brotherhood a terrorist organization.
I don’t have access to insider intelligence but let me put it this way. When the pieces of the jigsaw are fitted together something doesn’t smell right. After Paris, the world is gung ho to exterminate ISIS. France is cooperating with Russia to bomb them mercilessly. Yet Obama says they are contained and his strategy is working even as they threaten to turn the White House black, announce New York and Washington are next and are believed to be developing chemical weapons. You couldn’t make this up!Charles Krauthammer writes in The Telegraph that while France is creating a coalition to destroy ISIS, Obama “responded to Paris with weariness and annoyance. His news conference in Turkey was marked by a stunning tone of passivity, detachment and lassitude, compounded by impatience and irritability at the very suggestion that his Syria strategy might be failing.” Rather than falsely blame Muslims for the rise of ISIS, there may be other shoulders on which at least some of the blame should fall. It’s time they were exposed.

ISIS’s arrogance will accelerate its demise
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/November 24/15/
A shift in the attitudes of the major powers and powerful regional actors is inevitable after the Islamic State group (ISIS) showed the whole world that the scope of its international activities has expanded well beyond Iraq, Syria, and the Arab countries. ISIS targeted Russian citizens and interests, downing a Russian passenger jet over Sinai. ISIS then terrorized Paris, with a crime that appeared to be jointly planned and executed between Belgium and Syria. ISIS threatened to stage attacks in New York and Washington next, and it is possibly in the process of staging attacks in other European, Asian, or Gulf capitals.
U.S. President Barack Obama has clung on to his strategy in Syria, stressing that there would be no U.S. troops deployed to fight ISIS. However, he provided intelligence to France to conduct intensive air raids on ISIS in Syria, in retaliation for the Paris attacks, which may have also targeted French President Francois Hollande present at the time in the stadium that was attacked. The French president was determined to tell his U.S. and Russian counterparts that the attacks were a declaration of war on France, therefore requiring coordination with both NATO and Russia to stage an effective political and military response, also in cooperation with Middle Eastern nations. There is an international shift precipitated by ISIS’s arrogance, as it boasts of its ability to infiltrate various countries. ISIS and its affiliates have expanded the scope of their plans, in a way that suggests its ambitions and ideology do not stop at establishing a caliphate in Iraq and Syria, but has global plans as well. This destructive arrogance is likely to engender new counter-strategies and a serious global war on the terror industry. The proliferation of terrorism to the European heartland, with such intensity and infiltration, could also accelerate urgent military and political efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis, especially with regard to the regional powers. Yet the new strategies will not be limited to Syria and its Turkish, Kurdish, Saudi, and Iranian dimensions. To be sure, Egypt too is at the forefront of these events, along with Libya, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon.
Last week, Turkey hosted the G20 summit. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed reassured by the clear enhancement of the crucial relationship between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar during the Vienna talks on Syria’s future, the latest round of which were held a few days before the G20 summit in Antalya. Turkey may ultimately get an international green light to establish safe zones in northern Syria, as this could help stem the flow of refugees to Europe. But there is a big difference between safe zones and no-fly zones. The latter requires military deployment by the countries imposing it, while the former has fewer requirements. Ankara could also gain the departure of Bashar al-Assad, as this issue has practically become a subject of consensus, Assad being both a catalyst and a magnet for terrorism. As the international community is resolved to defeat terrorism as a priority, the United States, France, and even Russia will not accept for Assad to be the stick in the wheel.
Turkey’s lost bet
However, Turkey seems to have lost its bet on its ability to turn the United States against the Kurds. Washington is determined to continue and step up its direct support of the Kurds, including in Syria, as they have fought fiercely against ISIS and are indispensable. In addition, there are some in U.S. circles who are encouraging the U.S. administration to foster financial ties with Kurds by purchasing Kurdish Iraqi oil directly not through the Iraqi central government. What course of action will Ankara pursue vis-à-vis U.S.-Kurdish relations? Some in Washington believe the U.S. administration can give Turkey guarantees that its support of the Kurds will not reach the point of blessing the establishment of a Kurdish state between Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. Some believe Turkey cannot continue to be both part of the problem and part of the solution in the context of the growth of terrorist groups in Syria, and hence will be forced to make concessions. Turkey will continue to have influence over the Syrian opposition. However, this influence is weakening in tandem with the growing overt Saudi role in bringing together the Syrian opposition, in coordination with both Turkey and Russia. The Syrian opposition, which was absent from the Vienna meetings, won from the negotiations a timetable and a place in an international political process with a ceasefire as its starting point. The Syrian opposition won a direct Saudi engagement, along with a Saudi-Turkish-Qatari insistence on Assad’s departure and an implicit Russian agreement to eventually abandon Assad.
Russia’s timetable
Russian-Saudi relations are developing steadily. Moscow hopes to launch a political process to resolve the Syrian crisis early next year. The 18-month time table proposed by Russia for change in Syria could be affected by the military timetable imposed by this week’s developments, but sources say it should not span more than 4 months because of intense international mobilization and because Russia wants a strategy to exit Syria within this period.
The Russian-Iranian relationship, according to other sources, is tense, because some in Moscow believe Iran has implicated Russia in Syria. Qassem Soleimani, the key figure in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, is said to have persuaded the Russians during a visit to Moscow a few months ago that the regime in Syria was on the verge of collapse. Therefore, Russian intervention was needed to restore balance and secure interests, Soleimani is said to have argued, and told the Russian leadership that Iran-backed forces such as Hezbollah would be able to turn the tide on the ground with Russian air cover. However, the sources continued, Russia has found itself bombarding from the sky while the promises on the ground fizzled out because of Iran’s limited capability. Now, Russia is determined to extricate itself from the military quagmire in Syria, which would leave Iran alone implicated with its soldiers and proxies.
Iran appears reassured. It is touting an alliance with Russia and Western powers to defeat ISIS in Syria and Iraq. It sits at the table of drafting Syria’s future in Syria. And it gears up for having the sanctions on it lifted pursuant to the nuclear deal. However, Tehran is implicitly upset because it has no seat the G20 table, while its rival Saudi Arabia has a key place in the summit, which undermines Iran’s position. Iran is isolated in its insistence on Bashar al-Assad in Vienna, against consensus over isolating Assad. And even if Iran is playing the Assad card for its domestic audience, it must realize that it will remain excluded from making decisions on Syria’s future as long as it clings to Assad. Tehran must also be aware that the Vienna process places it under the microscope on at least two levels: First, by defining who are the terrorists, foreign fighters, and oppositionists in Syria. Indeed, demanding non-Syrian forces to withdraw will affect Iran and its proxies, and Tehran will not be able to demand that its militias or advisers remain in Syria. Second, Tehran is aware that it is violating Security Council resolutions 1737 and 1747 that prohibit Iran from deploying forces and arms directly or indirectly outside its borders. Iran must know that if the United States or Britain choose to expose these violations, this could delay the lifting of the sanctions. Washington and London are currently turning a blind eye along with Russia, China, France, and Germany, to preserve the nuclear agreement.
However, any state in or outside the U.N. Security Council can raise Iran’s violation of the resolution adopted by the council under Chapter Vii with the Sanctions Panel. If the countries opposed to Iran’s support for Bashar al-Assad in power develop a cohesive strategy, they can seriously challenge Iran’s violations at the U.N. At least, Washington has the ability to threaten Tehran with obstructing the lifting of the sanctions if it wishes, and this is the course of action it should pursue to influence Iran’s obstructionist attitudes. The Security Council will handle important tasks to accompany the Vienna process. It will be responsible for issuing a resolution on a ceasefire and establishing international monitoring thereof. It will also be in charge of authorizing military action in Syria, possibly under Article 51 of the Charter which gives states the right to act unilaterally in self-defense. The council is also supporting the mission of U.N. Envoy Staffan de Mistura, who is tasked by the Vienna process to prepare political committees and oversee the drafting of the constitution and the elections. The United Nations has a candidate for the post of prime minister, who will have expanded executive powers during the transitional period, while the presidency is set to become a ceremonial post. Its candidate will be someone well suited to undertake the crucial burdens of that phase, and one who is acceptable to the major powers and regional states as well as senior figures in the Syrian regime. There are two other candidates being discussed, one who is based outside of Syria, but it is not clear how acceptable they will be. There is also a list of names of who is acceptable and who is vetoed by the senior figures in the regime. But overall, the political process seems to be in an advanced stage.
An absent party
The party that remains absent from the process is Egypt. According to sources, Cairo has attempted to exploit contradictions at a time when no one can afford this, which is why relations with Saudi are currently tense. Cairo’s discomfort stems from Turkish-Saudi-Qatari solidarity, which Egypt believes runs contrary to its interests in fighting the Muslim Brotherhood. Meanwhile, Riyadh is upset by Cairo’s attitudes on Syria. Nevertheless, all sides including Washington realize that it is crucial to restore Egypt’s role as a strategic ally, whether in the war on ISIS inside Egypt or on ISIS in neighboring Libya. However, to achieve this, President Sisi must rectify his regional policy mistakes and scale back some of his domestic measures. Libya, meanwhile, is an international mistake that must be repaired as part of the strategy on fighting terror, before it fall completely hostage to growing terrorist groups there. In turn, Yemen is an ideal candidate for attracting al-Qaeda and similar groups. It is therefore extremely important to create a favorable climate for the Saudi-led Arab coalition to end its military operations there. This is both an international and a Saudi responsibility. The time now is right to think of Yemen from the angle of crushing terrorism before it becomes a fertile ground for its resurgence. This requires helping the Arab alliance exit Yemen, to refocus resources on fighting ISIS instead of being caught in a spiral of attrition. There is an international shift precipitated by ISIS’s arrogance, as it boasts of its ability to infiltrate various countries. ISIS was never a local terrorist group, and was always a global organization that has cost Syria dearly. Perhaps ISIS now has overplayed its hand and has invited is own doom, even if after a while. However, the concern here is that the international players would commit additional mistakes aside from the costly one they made, namely: That they decided to fight terror “there” so that they do not have to fight it in U.S., Russia, and European cities. This was an unforgivable sin that destroyed Iraq and Syria, and is now backfiring against innocents.