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Bible Quotation For Today/Either make the tree good, and its fruit good; or make the tree bad, and its fruit bad; for the tree is known by its fruit
Matthew 12/33-37: "‘Either make the tree good, and its fruit good; or make the tree bad, and its fruit bad; for the tree is known by its fruit. You brood of vipers! How can you speak good things, when you are evil? For out of the abundance of the heart the mouth speaks. The good person brings good things out of a good treasure, and the evil person brings evil things out of an evil treasure. I tell you, on the day of judgement you will have to give an account for every careless word you utter; for by your words you will be justified, and by your words you will be condemned.’"

Bible Quotation For Today/Holy, holy, holy, the Lord God the Almighty, who was and is and is to come.’
Book of Revelation 04/01-11: "After this I looked, and there in heaven a door stood open! And the first voice, which I had heard speaking to me like a trumpet, said, ‘Come up here, and I will show you what must take place after this.’At once I was in the spirit, and there in heaven stood a throne, with one seated on the throne!And the one seated there looks like jasper and cornelian, and around the throne is a rainbow that looks like an emerald. Around the throne are twenty-four thrones, and seated on the thrones are twenty-four elders, dressed in white robes, with golden crowns on their heads. Coming from the throne are flashes of lightning, and rumblings and peals of thunder, and in front of the throne burn seven flaming torches, which are the seven spirits of God; and in front of the throne there is something like a sea of glass, like crystal. Around the throne, and on each side of the throne, are four living creatures, full of eyes in front and behind: the first living creature like a lion, the second living creature like an ox, the third living creature with a face like a human face, and the fourth living creature like a flying eagle. And the four living creatures, each of them with six wings, are full of eyes all around and inside. Day and night without ceasing they sing, ‘Holy, holy, holy, the Lord God the Almighty, who was and is and is to come.’ And whenever the living creatures give glory and honour and thanks to the one who is seated on the throne, who lives for ever and ever, the twenty-four elders fall before the one who is seated on the throne and worship the one who lives for ever and ever; they cast their crowns before the throne, singing, ‘You are worthy, our Lord and God, to receive glory and honour and power, for you created all things, and by your will they existed and were created.’"

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 01-02/15
Hezbollah al-Hejaz: A story not yet written/Hassan Al Mustafa/Al Arabiya/October 01/15
Lebanon reaps weapons windfall from Congress/Julian Pecquet/Al-Monitor/October 01/15
Chairman Of The Hizbullah-Affiliated 'Al-Akhbar' Daily, Ibrahim Al-Amin On Russian Air Campaign In Syria: 'Yesterday Russia Turned A New Page In The History Of The World'/MEMRI/October 01/15
Analysts: Russia Hitting All of Assad's Opponents/Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 01/15/
The bear in Syria/Haid Haid/Now Lebanon/October 01/15
Putin enters Syria’s quagmire/Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/ October 01/15
Are ‘enemies’ a political need in our world/Mohammed Fahad al-Harthi/Al Arabiya/October 01/15
Germany's Sharia Refugee Sheltersو "Bulk of Migrants Cannot Be Integrated/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/October 01/15
Are You Expecting a New Iran/Lawrence A. Franklin//Gatestone Institute/October 01/15
U.S. Intelligence-Gathering on ISIS Threatened in Africa/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/October 01/15
Iranian hard-line newspaper falls out of Khamenei's favor/correspondent in Tehran/Al-Monitor/September 30, 2015

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on October 01-02/15
Netanyahu Vows to Prevent Arms Transfers to Hizbullah via Syria
Moscow coordinating with Iran, Hezbollah: report
Lebanese Man Arrested for Helping Terrorists, Sheltering them
Jumblat Says 'Enough Kidding with Aoun,' as Salam Returns for Consultations on Cabinet Crisis
Report: Qatar Funding Education of Asir Supporters Children
New Proposal on Retiring Officers as Kataeb Says Roukoz Promotion Collapsed
Bassil: Eradication of Terrorism in Region is Essential to Stop its Worldwide Spread
Akkar Municipal Delegation Accepts Turning Srar Dump into 'Sanitary Landfill'
Hezbollah al-Hejaz: A story not yet written
Lebanon reaps weapons windfall from Congress
Chairman Of The Hizbullah-Affiliated 'Al-Akhbar' Daily, Ibrahim Al-Amin On Russian Air Campaign In Syria: 'Yesterday Russia Turned A New Page In The History Of The World'
How Russia bombed a UN Heritage Site in Syria
Ana Maria Luca & Myra Abdallah/Now Lebanon/October 01/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 01-02/15
Up to 10 Dead, Over 20 Hurt in Oregon School Shooting
Palestinians Shoot Dead 2 Israelis in West Bank
Netanyahu Calls for 'Immediate' Peace Talks with Palestinians
Bahrain Recalls Ambassador from Iran, Expels Tehran Envoy
Syria Kurds ask Russia for arms, coordination
Syria rebels form new Qalamoun coalition
Russia Launches New Strikes on Foes of Syria's Assad
Hollande to Russia: Target IS in Syria, Not Other Groups
Analysts: Russia Hitting All of Assad's Opponents
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 01/15/
Iraqi PM Prepared to Consider Russian Air Strikes on IS in Iraq
Report: Hundreds of Iranian troops arrive in Syria
Tehran Confirms Death of Ex-Lebanon Envoy Roknabadi in Hajj Stampede
Iran Nearly Doubles its Stampede Toll as it Agrees with Saudi to Repatriate Dead
HRW Says Yemen War Probe Scrapped under Saudi Pressure

Netanyahu Vows to Prevent Arms Transfers to Hizbullah via Syria
Naharnet/October 01/15/Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged Thursday that Israel will continue to act to prevent transfers of arms to Hizbullah from and through Syria. In his speech before the U.N. General Assembly, Netanyahu also claimed that Iran had delivered to Hizbullah SA-22 anti-aircraft missiles and Yakhont anti-ship missiles. Netanyahu used the first part of his speech to criticize the international community for reaching the nuclear deal with Iran. During his speech, he fell silent for 45 seconds after slamming the U.N. General Assembly's "deafening silence" in the face of repeated calls from Iran for the destruction of Israel. "The response from this body," he said, "has been absolutely nothing. Utter silence. Deafening silence."“Israel will do whatever it takes to defend itself and will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu said. "Israel will not permit any force on earth to threaten its future," he added. "Israel will do whatever it must do to defend our state and to defend our people," he went on to say. The Israeli premier's remarks come a day after Russia waged an air campaign against rebel and jihadist groups opposed to President Bashar Assad's regime in Syria. Israel is believed to have waged several airstrikes inside Syria in recent years against suspected Hizbullah arms depots and arms transfers.

Moscow coordinating with Iran, Hezbollah: report
Now Lebanon/October 01/15/BEIRUT – Russia has established two joint operation centers with Iran, Hezbollah, Syria and Iraq to coordinate their military activities, according to a Kuwaiti daily. “Talk of a conflict of interests between Iran and Russia over Syria is naïve. Russia is coordinating every military step with Iran,” Kuwaiti daily Al-Rai reported Thursday morning. “Likewise, there is complete coordination between Russia and Hezbollah, which represents the pillar of the attacking and defending forces on the ground in Syria and Iraq,” a source told the newspaper. “Moscow has decided—in agreement with Tehran and Hezbollah—[to implement] joint coordination and militarily action between Russia, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Iraq.”The Al-Rai article comes after a pro-Hezbollah daily reported on September 22 that Russia had formed an alliance with Iran, Syria, Iraq and the Lebanese party to share intelligence and plan military operations. Al-Akhbar’s editor-in-chief Ibrahim al-Amin also said that Russian forces were coordinating with Hezbollah in Syria, claiming that Russian military personnel had conducted a field survey of Syrian regime positions alongside Hezbollah officers.
Joint operation centers
Al-Rai went into details on the purported command centers that Russia was participating in alongside their allies.“Joint operations rooms were established in Damascus and Baghdad a few weeks ago,” the report said. The main purpose of the operations room in the Iraqi capital was to coordinate intelligence activities between Russia, Iran, Syria, Iraq and Hezbollah, a source said, adding that the center was run by two Iranian and Iraqi commanders. Meanwhile, according to the source, the operations room in Damascus is “for directing combat operations, and is run by a Russian general with full authority.”
Hours after the Al-Rai article was published, Reuters reported that Hezbollah was ready to join a large regime offensive in northwestern Syria. “Hundreds of Iranian troops arrived in Syria 10 days ago with weapons to take part in ground operations in rebel-held areas of northern Syria, and Lebanon’s ally Hezbollah is preparing to join the operation,” Lebanese sources told the news agency. The sources added that the ground operation would be supported by Russian airstrikes. Moscow announced Wednesday that it had begun its air campaign in Syria, insisting it hit “eight ISIS terror group targets,” while rebel groups, the US and France all said Russia had not bombed the extremist group. On Wednesday morning, activists and rebels said that state-of-the-art Russian fighter jets had conducted bombing runs on Lataminah, a town northwest of Hama, as well as a region north of Homs, neither of which are ISIS strongholds. Syrian state TV, for its part, reported that Russian jets hit ISIS targets near Homs’ Rastan and Talbisah—where ISIS does not have a presence—as well as areas near Hama’s Salamiyah, where the group does maintain frontlines with regime troops as well the Nusra Front.

Lebanese Man Arrested for Helping Terrorists, Sheltering them
Naharnet/October 01/15/The General Security Department said on Thursday that it has arrested a Lebanese man for providing arms to terrorists and for sheltering them. Sh. H. was arrested on charges of supplying terrorist groups with arms and ammunition, for storing them on their behalf and transporting them to Syrian territories, the General-Directorate of General Security said in a communique. It also accused the suspect of sheltering the members of the terrorist groups and facilitating their movement between the Lebanese and Syrian territories.The communique said the man's arrest came as part of General Security's pursuit of terrorist groups and sleeper cells.

Jumblat Says 'Enough Kidding with Aoun,' as Salam Returns for Consultations on Cabinet Crisis
Naharnet/October 01/15/Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblat slammed recent statements made by officials to strike a political settlement that would have resolved the cabinet crisis. In remarks to An Nahar daily published on Thursday, Jumblat said: “I am monitoring the random remarks which aim at striking the political settlement that we were on the verge of reaching with MP Michel Aoun and which was thwarted the last minute.” “Enough kidding with Aoun,” he said, adding “I understand his stance and let us stop making constitutional conclusions.”Jumblat was referring to a deal that the political parties were going to strike on the promotion of military officers. But the agreement was thwarted after several officials launched scathing attacks on Aoun and accused him of making exaggerated demands. Aoun, who heads the Change and Reform bloc, threatened on Tuesday to boycott the national dialogue chaired by Speaker Nabih Berri following reports that the deal included the appointment of a new Internal Security Forces chief and an ISF command council. But several officials denied on Wednesday that the agreement on military promotions included an item on ISF appointments in an attempt to appease Aoun. The accord includes the promotion of three senior army officers – a Maronite, a Shiite and a Sunni - among them Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz, who is Aoun’s son-in-law, to the rank of major general. Roukoz' promotion would keep him in the army and make him eligible to lead the military, Aoun's long-sought ambition. In return for Roukoz becoming a major general, an agreement would be reached on the cabinet’s decision-making mechanism and the resumption of parliament sessions. An Nahar quoted ministerial sources as saying that Prime Minister Tammam Salam will launch consultations with Berri upon his return from New York to decide on the date of a cabinet session. The daily also quoted sources in al-Mustaqbal bloc as saying that Berri is exerting efforts to activate the parliament and the cabinet.

Report: Qatar Funding Education of Asir Supporters Children
Naharnet/October 01/15/Qatar has reportedly tasked al-Jamaa al-Islamiya with spending an Emiri grant to fund the education of the children of Sheikh Ahmed al-Asir's supporters. Al-Akhbar newspaper said on Thursday that instructions have been given to al-Jamaa al-Islamiya to register the children of al-Asir's supporters, who are either detained or on the run, at al-Iman high school in the southern city of Sidon. A committee of sheikhs and Islamic officials in Sidon have been in contact with the wives and families of al-Asir's backers to bring their children to the high school to register them for free for the 2015-2016 academic year, al-Akhbar added. The armed supporters of al-Asir, a firebrand anti-Hizbullah cleric, clashed with the Lebanese army in Abra, which is a suburb of Sidon, in June 2013 after they opened fire on a military checkpoint.The fighting killed 18 Lebanese soldiers. Al-Asir, who had been on the run since the battles, was arrested last month at Beirut's Rafik Hariri International Airport while trying to travel to Nigeria via Cairo with a fake Palestinian passport.

New Proposal on Retiring Officers as Kataeb Says Roukoz Promotion Collapsed
Naharnet/October 01/15/A new proposal has been made to resolve the controversial promotions in the Lebanese army by postponing the retirement of several officers, a move that would keep the commando regiment chief in his post and would not contradict with the law. A ministerial source told An Nahar daily on Thursday that such a proposal has been approved by the ministers representing former President Michel Suleiman and most likely the Kataeb party. The retirement of the officers would be postponed for a year through a decree proposed by the defense minister based upon a recommendation made by the military chief in accordance to article 55 of the defense law, said the source. Such a move would keep Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz, who is Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun's son-in-law, in his post. The proposal comes amid a settlement that the country's top officials were on the verge of reaching to appease Aoun and activate the work of the cabinet and the parliament. The deal lied in the promotion of three senior army officers, among them Roukoz, to the rank of major general. Roukoz' promotion would keep him in the army and make him eligible to lead the military, Aoun's long-sought ambition. The agreement was not struck after reports that it included the appointment of a new Internal Security Forces chief and an ISF command council. But several officials, including Speaker Nabih Berri and Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblat, are now exerting efforts to appease Aoun by stressing that the deal on the military promotions did not include an item on ISF appointments. The ministers of the Kataeb Party and those representing Suleiman have not been in favor of such a deal. A Kataeb source told An Nahar that Roukoz' promotion is no longer achievable. He is set to retire this month. Asked what Aoun's reaction would be if his son-in-law went into retirement, the source said: “He can paralyze the cabinet and the (national) dialogue session.”“Let him do so and let the government become a caretaker,” he said.“His ministers could be replaced by acting ministers if they decided to resign” from the cabinet, the source added.

Bassil: Eradication of Terrorism in Region is Essential to Stop its Worldwide Spread
Naharnet/October 01/15/Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil has told the U.N. Security Council that the international community should launch war on terrorism to stop its spread in the Middle East and the entire world. “Lebanon considers that the war on terror should be worldwide because terrorism represents a world threat,” Bassil told a Council meeting on terrorism. “The eradication of terrorism in the region is an essential condition to stop its proliferation in the world,” said Bassil at Wednesday's ministerial-level meeting which was headed by Russia. The meeting focused on the settlement of conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa and countering the terrorist threat in the region. This month, Russia holds the presidency of the Security Council. Bassil said Lebanon is fully involved in the war on terror to steer the country and its people clear of radicalism. He told the Council that the Lebanese army is involved in daily skirmishes with terrorists taking the Lebanese-Syrian border as a refuge.The threat of al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State group rose in August last year when they overran the northeastern border town of Arsal and took with them hostages form the military and police. Security forces are also pursuing all terrorist networks and sleeper cells in the country, Bassil said. During an earlier meeting that included the foreign ministers of the European Union and Jordan, Bassil called for the creation of a safe zone in Syria to house refugees. He said the return of the displaced Syrians to their country was the only solution to the refugee crisis. Lebanon hosts around 1.5 million Syrian refugees, amounting to one third of its population.

Akkar Municipal Delegation Accepts Turning Srar Dump into 'Sanitary Landfill'
Naharnet/October 01/15/A delegation from several Akkar municipalities on Thursday held talks with Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq and announced its approval of government plans to turn an existing garbage dump in the Srar area into a so-called “sanitary landfill.”“The municipalities announce their immediate approval of setting up a sanitary landfill in Akkar, because that means 33 random dumps would be shut down,” said the delegation in a statement after meeting Mashnouq in Beirut. The minister “reassured the delegation and dissipated its concerns regarding possible environmental and public safety hazards, pledging that the random Srar dump will be turned into a sanitary landfill and that cooperation with the European Union will be sought during implementation,” the statement added.It said the relevant municipalities and the civil society will be granted “the right to inspection and accountability.”
During the meeting with Mashnouq, the delegation hoped job opportunities pertaining to the implementation of the landfill project and the transfer of waste to the site will be “limited to the sons of the Akkar province.”The minister for his part promised the delegation to help Akkar obtain developmental projects, such as “rescuing the al-Ostwan river from the pollution that is threatening the fish population, executing a sewer system project in al-Dreib, establishing 5 Lebanese University branches in Akkar, expanding the Arab Highway, and lighting the road from al-Abdeh to al-Abboudiyeh.”On Wednesday, Akkar anti-trash activists organized a new sit-in to reject government plans to set up a sanitary garbage landfill Srar as part of a comprehensive waste management plan proposed by Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb and a team of experts. The sit-in that was held in the Akkar town of Shir Hmayrin was organized by the “Akkar is Not a Dump” campaign and other activists amid a participation by a number of municipalities and mayors from the region. “The towns and villages in the vicinity of the Srar landfill reject the dumping of additional quantities of garbage in this site, which has caused major environmental and health hazards,” a municipal chief said at the sit-in. Speaking in the name of the “Akkar is Not a Dump” campaign, the activist Bernard Obeid stressed that “Akkar will not be a dump and Akkar's sons will stand in the way of the trucks that will transport the garbage” from other regions. He also declared an open-ended sit-in and pledged that all garbage trucks will be sent back to the areas they may come from, underlining that “it is unacceptable to put the burden of the garbage of entire Lebanon on Akkar's shoulders.” Shehayyeb's plan calls for reopening the Naameh landfill, which was closed in mid-July, for seven days to dump the garbage that accumulated in random sites in Beirut and Mount Lebanon. It also envisions converting two existing dumps, in Srar and the eastern border area of al-Masnaa, into “sanitary landfills” capable of receiving trash for more than a year. After he announced his plan earlier this month, the civil society and local residents of Akkar, Naameh, Majdal Anjar, and Bourj Hammoud protested against the step. Experts have urged the government to devise a comprehensive waste management solution that would include more recycling and composting to reduce the amount of trash going into landfills. Environmentalists fear the crisis could soon degenerate to the point where garbage as well as sewage will simply overflow into the sea from riverbeds as winter rains return. The health ministry has warned that garbage scattered by seasonal winds could also block Lebanon's drainage system. The trash crisis has sparked angry protests that initially focused on waste management but grew to encompass frustrations with water and electricity shortages and Lebanon's chronically divided political class.Campaigns like "You Stink" brought thousands of people into the streets in unprecedented non-partisan and non-sectarian demonstrations against the entire political class.

Hezbollah al-Hejaz: A story not yet written
Hassan Al Mustafa/Al Arabiya/ October 01/15
Hezbollah al-Hejaz is a name that surfaced again in August after the leader of its military wing, Ahmed al-Mughassil, was arrested in the Lebanese capital Beirut. Mughassil was handed over to Saudi authorities after some 19 years in hiding. He was accused of preparing and participating in the 1996 explosion that targeted a residential tower in Khobar, eastern Saudi Arabia, killing 19 American soldiers and injuring dozens more. Saudi authorities carried out an expanded security campaign that targeted the group's members and activists, leading to the disintegration of its organizational structure.Hezbollah al-Hejaz was established at the end of the 1980s, following clashes in 1987 between Shiite pilgrims and Saudi security forces during the hajj pilgrimage, which caused tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The organization adopted violence as a means to achieve change, without realizing that this approach would make it a "terrorist" organization, and would make it lose the sympathy of many people. Knowing the details of the emergence of Hezbollah al-Hejaz is important as it helps understand the structure and mentality of a radical organization about which not much has been written. The party included a group of Saudi Shiite religious-studies students who resided in Iran. It also included defectors from the Islamic Revolution Organization in the Arabian Peninsula following ideological and political disputes. The Islamic Revolution Organization followed Ayatollah Sayed Mohammad Shirazi, who was at odds with politicians in Tehran. The Shiite theory of velayat-e faqih - that Islam gives an Islamic jurist custodianship over people - is considered one of major principles of Hezbollah al-Hejaz, which is loyal to Iran's supreme leader, who at the time was Ruhollah Khomeini. Its members sought to spread the concept of velayat-e faqih among Shiites in Saudi Arabia. However, Hezbollah al-Hejaz did not succeed in expanding, remaining limited to certain youth categories.
Limited popularity
Hezbollah al-Hejaz is considered the organizational structure of what was known as "the Movement of the Imam's Path Followers.” The movement's popularity was limited to enthusiastic young men who admired the ideas of Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic. Although he was not their jurisprudential reference, he was still an inspiration to many, as he achieved a long-desired dream of many Shiites. The expanded popularity among Shiite Saudis of non-politicized traditional reference Ayatollah al-Khoei, who resided in the Iraqi city of Najaf, limited the spread of Hezbollah al-Hejaz among conservatives in eastern Saudi Arabia. However, the group exploited sectarian tensions, people's respect for Khomeini, and feelings of discrimination to gain support from youths. The lack of desire to get involved in projects that politically oppose the government was another reason people avoided interacting with ideas spread by some clerics in support of Hezbollah al-Hejaz. These clerics were viewed as preoccupied with politics rather than religious studies, and were thus considered less knowledgeable than clerics from other classic religious movements. Prominent families within the Saudi Shiite community were against most of Hezbollah al-Hejaz's ideas. Therefore, the group could not gain the support of major areas that were under the control of classic clerics, businessmen and historical leaders who had good ties with the state and believed in dialogue and communication with the government as a means to resolve problems.
Crackdown
In 1988, explosions struck industrial and oil institutions in Ras Tanura, and as a result many were arrested in the cities of Qatif and Dammam. These detentions were accompanied by confrontations with gunmen linked to the operation, which represents Hezbollah al-Hejaz's first military action.
Four of its members - Mohammad al-Qrous, Ali al-Khatem, Khaled al-Aalq and Azhar al-Hajaj - were arrested and executed. Another group was detained and included many members, the most prominent being Sheikh Abdul Karim al-Hubail. He and some of his comrades were released in 1994.
Hezbollah al-Hejaz, who has used Iran, Syria and Lebanon as space to act, also included the "Gathering of Hejaz Ulema," which was the wing embracing clerics from Qatif, Dammam and Ahsa, and it was most of the times at odds with the military wing which included Hezbollah al-Hejaz hawks.
After 1994, most Hezbollah al-Hejaz cadres returned to Saudi Arabia following a royal pardon by late King Fahd bin Abdulaziz. After their return, most got involved in religious work and activity related to dawaa within their society. Some refused to return, the most famous of them being Mughassil, who was placed on the U.S. terror list after being accused of planning and participating in the Khobar explosions. The terror list also included Ali al-Hoorie, Abdulkarim al-Nasser and Ibrahim Yaacoub. Knowing the details of the emergence of Hezbollah al-Hejaz is important as it helps understand the structure and mentality of a radical organization about which not much has been written.

Lebanon reaps weapons windfall from Congress
Julian Pecquet/Al-Monitor/October 01/15
Tiny Lebanon is seeing its fortunes surge on Capitol Hill as fear of the Islamic State (IS) supplants any lingering concerns about Hezbollah. Congress over the past year has approved more than $1 billion in proposed arms sales for the Lebanese armed forces, including attack aircraft and helicopters. And lawmakers on Sept. 29 cemented Beirut's status as a key ally with the release of a compromise annual defense bill that puts Lebanon on equal footing with longtime partner Jordan. The free flow of aid and weapons represents a sea change from the situation five years ago, when Congress briefly held up all military aid following an incident in which Lebanese soldiers shot and killed an Israeli officer on the border. Hezbollah's political dominance over the following three years caused further hand-wringing on Capitol Hill, but over the past few months Lebanon's military has emerged as a trusted backstop against Islamist militants of all stripes. “The mood in Congress is definitely much more positive than years ago regarding the security assistance to Lebanon," said Joseph Gebeily, president of the Lebanese Information Center, a Washington-based think tank. "There is an increased recognition by members of Congress, on both sides of the aisle, that it is important for US interests in Lebanon and the region.”Gebeily credits the increased professionalization of the armed services, the emergence of a compromise governing coalition last year and the Lebanese armed forces' recent victories against IS. He said top Lebanese military commanders now regularly visit State Department and Defense Department officials in Washington, while US lawmakers in turn make it a habit to visit them during congressional delegations to Lebanon. “If you look at the area," Gebeily said, "the only place really where local security forces or armed forces were able to completely eradicate [IS] and consorts from their territory was in Lebanon.”
Congress and the Obama administration have taken notice.
Over the past 12 months, the Pentagon has informed Congress about its intention to sell Lebanon $391 million in missiles, $180 million in helicopters and $462 million in Super Tucano turboprop attack aircraft. Congressional and administration sources say none of those sales have been blocked by Congress.
The aircraft sales would provide the Lebanese armed forces with close air support seen as crucial for strikes against IS militants along the border. Saudi Arabia is helping foot the bill through a $1 billion grant to Lebanon. The aircraft and missile sales are only part of the picture, however. Just last week, for example, US Ambassador to Lebanon David Hale announced an additional $59 million for border security equipment for the army. "In early August, Congress approved a $59 million border security assistance proposal for the [Lebanese armed forces], funded under the Counterterrorism Partnerships Fund," a Defense Department official explained via email. The official added, "The proposal included 50 HMMWVs [Humvees], Harris radios, MK19 grenade launchers, small arms ammunition, night vision devices, and medical supplies. DSCA [the Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency] will need to execute a small portion of the proposal that includes a radar and camera system in FY16." Meanwhile, the State Department is seeking to increase bilateral aid by 35%, to $211 million, in its proposed budget for the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1. While $80 million of that had been earmarked for support to the Lebanese armed services, seen as a nonsectarian alternative to Hezbollah’s armed brigades, the State Department announced Sept. 30 that it was doubling military support to the LAF to more than $150 million. "We must do all we can to strengthen Lebanon’s institutions, and most particularly, the Lebanese Armed Forces," Thomas Shannon, President Obama's nominee for the Number 3 post at the State Department, said at the third ministerial meeting of the International Support Group in New York. "The army is the sole institution with the legitimacy and mandate to defend the country and its people. It must have the equipment and training required to do that job." The extra aid, he said, "will allow the Lebanese Armed Forces to buy munitions, improve close air support, sustain vehicles and aircraft, modernize airlift capacity, provide training to its soldiers, and add to the mobility of armored units."On Sept. 29, the armed services committees in the House and Senate released a compromise annual defense bill that would authorize an extra $150 million a year for Lebanese border security. The bill essentially takes a $300 million border security boost for Jordan that was in the House-passed defense bill and splits it with Lebanon.
That compromise represents a symbolic boost for Lebanon, which now finds itself associated with one of America's closest allies as the two face the brunt of the fallout from the civil war in Syria and the rise of IS. Lebanon has taken in almost 1.2 million Syrian refugees since the start of the war — one in five people living in Lebanon today is a Syrian refugee.Despite the increased support for the Lebanese army, some lawmakers remain wary. Reps. Grace Meng, D-N.Y., and Mark Meadows, R-N.C., spearheaded a letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon earlier this year taking the Lebanese military to task for its failure to prevent Hezbollah's retaliatory attack after Israel killed a senior Hezbollah commander and an Iranian general traveling in a Hezbollah convoy in the Syrian sector of the Golan Heights. "It is incumbent upon the UN and the Lebanese Armed Forces … to ensure that Hezbollah, a terrorist organization dedicated to the destruction of Israel and its allies, does not continue to rearm and initiate violence against Israel," said the February letter. Meadows, the author of anti-Hezbollah legislation that passed the House this year and last but has stalled in the Senate told Al-Monitor on Sept. 30 that his concerns persist. He said he and Meng never got a "meaningful response" from the UN. "When you have Hezbollah that has infiltrated so much of Lebanese government, some say Lebanese military, we've got to be extremely cautious when we start looking at providing arms literally right there on the Syrian-Lebanese border," Meadows said. "I think this goes the opposite way of where we need to be going internationally, with so many stories of arms ending up in the hands of [IS] or al-Qaeda or whoever it may be. I think we need to take a lot more cautious approach."
One congressional staffer rejected the notion that lawmakers are particularly enamored with the Lebanese armed forces. Rather, the aide said, the proliferation of problems across the Middle East — IS, the Syrian civil war, Yemen, Libya, and so forth — simply means there's less bandwidth for lawmakers to weigh in on every arms sale. Still, there's no denying the changing geopolitical landscape has prompted a rethink on Capitol Hill. Former Rep. Howard Berman, D-Calif., who was chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee in 2010, led efforts to hold the aid back then. The following year, he introduced legislation along with three Lebanese-American colleagues — Reps. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., Charles Boustany, R-La., and Nick Rahall, D-W.Va. — to bar US military aid when Hezbollah rules the government."Because I am not privy to all the information I had access to in those days, [I] don't think I have much to contribute to your reporting," Berman told Al-Monitor via email, "except to agree that the world and the region has certainly changed.”Editor's Note: This story was updated Thursday, Oct. 1 with new information from the State Department.

Chairman Of The Hizbullah-Affiliated 'Al-Akhbar' Daily, Ibrahim Al-Amin On Russian Air Campaign In Syria: 'Yesterday Russia Turned A New Page In The History Of The World'
MEMRI/October 1, 2015 Special Dispatch No.6171In an article published in the Hizbullah-affiliated Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar on October 1, 2015, the chairman of the newspaper's board of directors, Ibrahim Al-Amin, predicted that Russia's air campaign in Syria will be merely a prelude to a larger military offensive involving ground operations by the Syrian Army, Iran, Hizbullah, and even the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces. Al-Amin is known to have close ties to Hizbullah, and in the past he has proven a reliable source on matters relating to the Iran-Syria-Hizbullah axis.
Ibrahim Al-Amin (source: Siyese.net)
The following is the translation of the article:
"...This is the first test for the granddaughter of the Eastern dynasty [i.e. Russia] since World War II, and it is the first field test of whether America's unipolar position in the world over the past quarter century has truly been broken. Above all, this is a repositioning of Russian military force in the direct labor market of the regions of 'cold' confrontation with the U.S.-led West... Today we find ourselves before the best opportunity of putting Syria on a path to a true solution, even if it be prefaced by fire. "As for the facts, the Russian air force carried out the first missions of a working program laid out in detailed form in an existing plan of cooperation between Moscow and its allies in the war in Syria and Iraq. This is a plan that is coordinated down to the finest details with the two allies Syria and Iran, and consequently with Hizbullah [as well]... What happened yesterday, and which will soon reach its culmination, is a necessary preface to a larger military action that will include a land component undertaken by other forces in the alliance. To put it more directly, [Russia's] aerial bombardment of [the rebels'] command and control centers, major weapons arsenals, and artillery positions will be a preface to a military operation carried out by the Syrian army on the ground, with direct support from Iran and Hizbullah, and even from the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces... It may be emphasized that Russia's activity yesterday means clearly that all the discussions in New York didn't change an iota in the military plan of action..."The signs of surprise and astonishment on [the faces of] the Americans, the Westerners, the Israelis, the Turks, and the Saudis are an additional proof of the weakness of the prior coordination regarding the fate of the initiatives surrounding the Syria crisis. In fact, the step taken by Russia is a kind of dare to all those who employed every violent means they could against the Syrian regime. If they decide to broaden the confrontation, they will be forced to deal with the new realities, which today are openly represented by the Russian military presence, and tomorrow will be represented by an open Iranian military presence as well...
"This must not hide from our eyes the picture of the complicated reality, which tells us that the joy felt by the regime elements in Syria must not turn into any slackening, not on the part of the regime itself, and not on the part of all those who fight alongside it. It would be naive to consider the Russian strikes sufficient to counter the enemies. It would rather be realistic to profit from the support of Russia – which is a supporting actor, and is not [itself] a member of the axis of resistance – in order to prepare to wage harsh and decisive battles in a number of places in Syria. This is a matter that requires raising the level of readiness and mobilization, and the creation of operative means of benefitting from the Russian military arsenal that is present in or coming to Syria. "Yesterday Russia turned a new page in the history of the world. However far its military action in the field reaches, it is the political and strategic results that will remain more important. These results will invite those who delude themselves in thinking that America is still the leader of the world and controller of its fate to revise their stance. Those who do not want to change their minds, let them stay as they wish, but they should take into account that they must rely on themselves more than at any time in the past. This goes for Syria, Iraq, Palestine, and even the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa!"

Up to 10 Dead, Over 20 Hurt in Oregon School Shooting
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 01/15/Up to 10 people were reported killed and over 20 wounded on Thursday as a shooting erupted in a community college in the U.S. state of Oregon, as local officials said the gunman had been detained. Authorities said the shooting took place in one of the classrooms in the science building at Umpqua Community College in Roseburg and that a suspect was in custody. Between seven and 10 people were killed and at least 20 wounded, local news network KATU quoted Oregon State Police Lieutenant Bill Fugate as saying. CNN, citing local officials, said at least 20 people were critically injured, including one woman who was shot in the chest. The college was immediately placed on lockdown as firefighters, police and concerned parents rushed to the site. Douglas County fire Marshall Ray Shoufler said firefighters had evacuated 11 wounded people from the college but two had died. He said when firefighters arrived at the scene, police has the shooter in custody. News reports said the shooter may have posted a message online before the shooting Authorities set up a triage center at the college and searched students as they left the facility. Located in a rural area, the school has some 3,300 students. School shootings are a disturbing reality of American life and many facilities have reinforced security in recent years, especially in the wake of the Sandy Hook massacre in 2012. Twenty students and six adults were killed at the Sandy Hook Elementary School in Connecticut by 20-year-old Adam Lanza.

Palestinians Shoot Dead 2 Israelis in West Bank
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 01/15/Palestinians shot dead two Israelis in a vehicle in the north of the occupied West Bank on Thursday, an Israeli security source said. The attack took place between the Jewish settlements of Itamar and Eilon Moreh, near the Palestinian city of Nablus. Four children in the vehicle were lightly wounded and taken to hospital, the same source said. The two dead were the children's mother and father. Israeli security forces flooded the sector where the incident occurred, an AFP journalist said. The attack came after court documents showed Israel was considering authorizing wildcat settlement outposts in the West Bank near a village where a firebombing killed an 18-month-old Palestinian boy and his parents. It also came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered in a speech at the U.N. General Assembly to resume direct talks with the Palestinians. The premier said he was prepared to "immediately resume direct peace negotiations" without preconditions, although the Palestinians condition a resumption of dialogue on an end to settlement building and the release of prisoners. On Wednesday, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas told the Assembly Israel's refusal to release prisoners and stop settlement activity meant the Palestinians could not be bound by past agreements between the two sides. However, after Thursday's attack Israel's hardline Education Minister Naftali Bennett issued an angry statement. "The time for talks (with the Palestinians) is over," he said. "It is time to act." "A people whose leaders support murder will never have a state."

Netanyahu Calls for 'Immediate' Peace Talks with Palestinians
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 01/15/Israel's prime minister went to the United Nations on Thursday to call for an immediate resumption of peace talks with the Palestinians and to savage the international community's nuclear deal with Iran."I am prepared to immediately, immediately resume direct peace negotiations with the Palestinians without any preconditions whatsoever," Benjamin Netanyahu told the General Assembly.Addressing Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas directly, he said: "President Abbas, I know it's not easy. I know it's hard."But we owe it to our peoples to try. To continue to try. Because together... if we actually sit down and try to resolve this conflict between us... we can do remarkable things for our people," Netanyahu added. His remarks come with Netanyahu scheduled to speak with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House in November -- their first meeting after a deep row about the Iranian nuclear row. Their frosty relations plummeted further during Netanyahu's re-election campaign when he rejected a two-state solution for peace with the Palestinians. With the peace process in deep freeze, there are growing fears that tensions like those flaring at Jerusalem's flashpoint Al-Aqsa mosque compound could spark a broader Palestinian uprising. Abbas told the United Nations on Wednesday that Israel's refusal to release Palestinian prisoners and stop settlement activity, meant that Palestinians could no longer feel bound by past agreements. "They leave us no choice but to insist that we will not remain the only ones committed to the implementation of these agreements, while Israel continuously violates them," he said. "We cannot continue to be bound by these signed agreements with Israel and Israel must assume fully all its responsibilities as an occupying power," Abbas added, saying Palestinian patience "has come to an end."Netanyahu used the first part of his speech to criticize the international community for reaching the nuclear deal with Iran. During his speech, he fell silent for 45 seconds after slamming the U.N. General Assembly's "deafening silence" in the face of repeated calls from Iran for the destruction of Israel. "The response from this body," he said, "has been absolutely nothing. Utter silence. Deafening silence."Israel will do whatever it takes to defend itself and will not allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, Netanyahu said. "Israel will not permit any force on earth to threaten its future," he said. "Israel will do whatever it must do to defend our state and to defend our people," he went on to say.

Bahrain Recalls Ambassador from Iran, Expels Tehran Envoy
Naharnet/October 01/15/Bahrain recalled its ambassador from Iran on Thursday and ordered Tehran's envoy to leave within 72 hours, claiming interference in its affairs, the official BNA news agency reported. The Gulf kingdom of Bahrain, with a majority Shiite Muslim population ruled by a Sunni dynasty, has suffered from unrest since a pro-democracy uprising in 2011. Bahrain frequently accuses predominantly Shiite Iran of meddling in its affairs. A foreign ministry statement was quoted as saying the action was taken in response to "continuing interference by Iran in the affairs of the kingdom" and an attempt by Tehran to foment "confessional sedition."Iran supports acts of "sabotage and terrorism" in the country, the statement added, accusing Tehran of forming and arming "terrorist groups" and providing them with refuge.Bahraini authorities said on Wednesday they had uncovered a large stash of weapons and arrested a number of people suspected of having links with Iran and Iraq. An interior ministry statement said arms and explosives were discovered in a house in the mainly Shiite town of Nuwaidrat, south of the capital Manama. The cache included a tonne and a half of C4 explosives and other explosive material, as well as automatic rifles, pistols and hand grenades, the ministry said. In August, Bahrain arrested five people suspected of links with Iran in connection with a bombing that killed two policemen in the island state.

Syria Kurds ask Russia for arms, coordination
Now Lebanon/October 01/15/BEIRUT – The Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) has asked Russia to support it in its fight against ISIS as well as the Al-Qaeda affiliated Nusra Front. YPG chief Sipan Hemo told Sputnik Türkiye—which is owned by Moscow—that his fighting force requested arms from Russia as well as general military coordination, according to a translation of the interview prepared by Turkey’s Anadolu news agency. “He also called on Moscow to bomb Al-Nusra Front’s positions,” Anadolu added a day after Russia began its airstrikes in Syria on behalf of the Bashar al-Assad regime. In turn, the report added that a foreign relations official for the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party—which controls the YPG—said his party was “ready to cooperate with any actor fighting ISIS.” “We are currently receiving support from the US and the [Iraqi Kurdish] Peshmerga,” Idris Naasan added. Syrian Kurds have been rolling back ISIS across large swathes of territory in northern Syria with the assistance of US airstrikes, while also fighting Nusra in the Kurdish-populated Afrin region northwest of Aleppo. The YPG commander’s comments come after a pro-Hezbollah Lebanese daily reported in late September that Russia had set up a coordination process with Kurdish forces and parties in northern Syria. “A Russian military delegate paid a secret visit to a number of Kurdish military commanders in Hasakeh and inspected areas of confrontation between the YPG and the armed groups,” the Al-Akhbar article said. Moscow announced Wednesday that it had begun its air strikes in Syria, insisting it hit “eight ISIS terror group targets,” while rebel groups, the US and France all said Russia had not bombed the extremist group. On Wednesday morning, activists and rebels said that state-of-the-art Russian fighter jets had conducted bombing runs on Lataminah, a town northwest of Hama, as well as a region north of Homs, neither of which are ISIS strongholds. Syrian state TV, for its part, reported that Russian jets hit ISIS targets near Homs’ Rastan and Talbisah—where ISIS does not have a presence—as well as areas near Hama’s Salamiyah, where the group does maintain frontlines with regime troops as well the Nusra Front. He also called on Moscow to bomb Al-Nusra Front’s positions.

Syria rebels form new Qalamoun coalition
Now Lebanon/October 01/15/BEIRUT – Embattled rebels in Syria’s Qalamoun have formed a new coalition following Hezbollah’s blistering offensive in the mountainous region in the early summer. Several factions operating in western Qalamoun along Lebanon’s border announced Wednesday the establishment Saraya Ahl al-Sham (People of Sham Brigades), a name which closely resembles the extended name of the Al-Nusra Front (Jabhat al-Nusra li Ahl al-Sham.) “The course of events has shown that it is necessary to unify ranks and form an entity in which all names are fused, in to which all leaderships are dissolved and in which all fighters are gathered under one name and one leadership,” the participating factions announced in a statement. “Accordingly, God almighty has honored most of western Qalamoun’s factions by… fully integrating [them] under the name ‘Saraya Ahl al-Sham.’” The statement also noted that “Abu Muwaffaq al-Shami” had been appointed as Saraya Ahl al-Sham’s Commander in Chief and that “Abu Mohsen al-Qalamouni” had been appointed as the formation’s military commander. In another similarity to Al-Nusra Front rhetoric, the statement’s conclusion stressed that the new formation “is independent and has no foreign allegiance to any side, actor, council or party.” The new rebel coalition comes as a successor to the Nusra-dominated Army of Conquest-Qalamoun, which was routed by Hezbollah in its summer military campaign on the remote mountainous area. Hezbollah—which launched its offensive on May 4—swept through a series of strategic mountaintops along the Lebanese border, pushing rebels back to two small pockets of territory outside the Syrian town of Qara and the Lebanese border town of Arsal.
Uniting rebels, working with Nusra
Although Saraya Ahl al-Sham heavily emphasized that it aims to unite the numerous bands of rebels operating in Qalamoun, its ties with Nusra—the dominant group in the region—remain murky. “After consecutive and intensive meetings between the factions, it was agreed to create a new structure to rally around and close ranks,” a spokesperson for the small rebel coalition Wa’tasimu bi Hablillah told Dubai-based Al-Aan TV. Zakaria al-Shami also said that “a unified shura council that includes members of the factions” had been formed. According to Al-Aan, these steps came after numerous calls by Qalamoun residents “for the unification of military factions and [their] operation as a single entity, especially after the decline of Army of Conquest-Qalamoun.”Shami explained the difference between Army of Conquest-Qalamoun and the new formation, claiming the former was “an operations room [set up] to organize work, not a military force.” “[Its] role was limited to directing the factions according to available military experience,” he said. “Saraya Ahl al-Sham is based on the unification of the factions in one body under one leadership.”The new coalition brings together the Cling to the Rope of God Gathering (Wa'tasimu), Liwa al-Ghuraba, Men of Qalamoun Brigade, Western Qalamoun Gathering, Al-Qastal Martyrs’ Brigades, Qalamoun Shield Brigade, Nabek Martyrs’ Brigade, Ibn Taymiyyah Brigade, Qalamoun Liberation Brigades, Bakhaa Martyrs, Martyr Abu Jaafar Brigade, Martyr Ali Diyab Brigade and the United in the Love of God Brigade. Interestingly, the Nusra Front is not an official member, yet, of Saraya Ahl al-Sham. However, a source told the pro-opposition Enab Baladi outlet that the new grouping has “good” relations with Al-Nusra Front in the area and that most of the factions involved worked with the Al-Qaeda affiliate in the Army of Conquest-Qalamoun operations room.
Start of operations
The Saraya Ahl al-Sham has yet to start its operations, however rebel spokesperson Zakaria al-Shami said the group would soon launch offensives. “Operations will begin at the [appropriate] time and we hope to maintain complete secrecy regarding this matter,” he told Al-Aan TV. “As [we have seen], the pre-emptive strikes and past attrition operations that we launched have proved effective.” “We hope that we have achieved an advance with regard to unification and working towards a new phase.”He concluded that the factions hope their new alliance will “be the beginning of a true liberation of Qalamoun’s towns and villages.”

Russia Launches New Strikes on Foes of Syria's Assad
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 01/15/Russian warplanes unleashed a new wave of strikes against opponents of Syrian President Bashar Assad Thursday, as Moscow and Washington sought ways to avoid confrontation between their forces. It was the second straight day of Russian raids in Syria, where Moscow has launched its first military engagement outside the former Soviet Union since the occupation of Afghanistan in 1979. Russia's defense ministry said its air force struck five Islamic State group targets Thursday. "We have prevented IS fighters from reestablishing a command post in the Hama province that had been destroyed in our air strikes" on Wednesday, spokesman Igor Konashenkov said. The ministry said an IS training camp and command post in northwest Idlib province were also hit. Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected allegations that civilians had been killed in Russian raids, describing them as "information warfare."The air strikes came as Russia presented a draft resolution to the U.N. Security Council that would call for consent from Damascus for attacks against IS in Syria. Washington had previously blocked a similar resolution. The Syrian conflict, which began as protests against Assad's regime in 2011, has escalated into a multi-faceted war that has drawn thousands of jihadists from overseas. Moscow, a key Assad ally, earlier said its raids destroyed a "terrorist" headquarters, a weapons warehouse, a command center and a car bomb factory. But a Syrian security source said the strikes had targeted a powerful coalition of Islamist rebels, the Army of Conquest, which includes al-Qaida's Syria affiliate al-Nusra Front and which fiercely opposes IS.
'Target IS' says Hollande
French President Francois Hollande said ahead of talks with Putin in Paris Friday that air strikes in Syria should target IS, not other groups. He said it was essential to ensure that "the strikes, regardless of who is carrying them out, target Daesh (IS) and not other groups." Turkish Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioglu said Thursday he felt "serious concern over the information that Russia's air strikes targeted opposition positions instead of Daesh."Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected the accusations, saying Moscow saw "eye to eye" with the U.S. on striking IS and al-Nusra. U.S. Senator John McCain accused Russian warplanes of striking groups "funded and trained by our CIA," saying Moscow's real priority was "to prop up Assad." A U.S.-backed rebel group, Suqur al-Jabal (Falcons of the Mountain), said Russian warplanes attacked its training camp in Idlib province. The group has received training and equipment as part of a $500-million U.S. program to build an anti-IS force. A U.S.-led coalition has carried out near-daily strikes on IS in Syria for more than a year, saying Thursday it had "not altered operations in Syria to accommodate new players on the battlefield."Pentagon spokesman Colonel Steve Warren told reporters coalition planes had conducted sorties and air strikes in Syria over the past 24 hours.After complaints by the U.S that Russia gave just an hour's notice of Wednesday's attacks, the two sides were set to hold military talks to avoid mishaps between planes from the U.S.-led coalition and Russia, a U.S. defense official said.
'Coordinating with Damascus'
After weeks of Russian military build-up in Syria, Russian senators on Wednesday unanimously approved armed intervention. It remains unclear how much of the opposition fighting Assad's army -- including the Western-backed opposition -- is considered by Moscow as a potential target. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov appeared to acknowledge that Russia was targeting not only IS, saying it operates according to a list apparently agreed with Damascus."These organizations are known," he was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies. "The targets are determined in coordination with the Syrian defense ministry."A Russian foreign ministry official had said Moscow could broaden its campaign to Iraq at Baghdad's request, but Lavrov later told reporters at the U.N. that Moscow was "not planning to expand our air strikes to Iraq". Russia's defense ministry said Moscow had sent more than 50 military aircraft as well as marines, paratroopers and special forces into Syria. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who met Lavrov at the United Nations on Wednesday, said U.S. and Russian officials were still engaged in talks "to guarantee safety and security and division of responsibility." Russia and the West are in deep disagreement over Syria, with Western powers blaming Assad for starting what has become a brutal war with more than 240,000 people dead and millions displaced. Moscow has portrayed Assad as the only force stopping the spread of IS, and argues that he must be part of the conflict's political solution. "Life has shown that it is unrealistic to give ultimatums demanding that Assad leaves in a situation when the country is in such a crisis," Lavrov said.

Hollande to Russia: Target IS in Syria, Not Other Groups
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 01/15/French President Francois Hollande said Thursday that air strikes in Syria should be aimed at Islamic State jihadists and not other groups, as he prepares to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Paris.Hollande said it was essential to ensure that "the strikes, regardless of who is carrying them out, target Daesh (another term for the Islamic State group) and not other groups." The French leader and his Russian counterpart will meet in Paris on Friday to discuss the Syria crisis before a summit on the Ukraine peace process later in the day. France and Russia both oppose the IS extremists, but differ on the proposed fate of Syrian President Bashar Assad, a long-time ally of Moscow who Paris would like to see removed from power as soon as possible. The first air strikes by Russia in Syria this week targeted areas associated with a range of insurgent and opposition groups, not just IS. "What has just happened confirms again that firstly we need a political transition that cannot include Bashar Assad, secondly that the regime needs to immediately halt its heinous bombardments against civilian populations and thirdly that the strikes, regardless of who is carrying them out, target Daesh and not other groups," Hollande told reporters.French Prime Minister Manuel Valls added: "If you want to fight against terrorism, you should first destroy Daesh sites. And I see that that is unfortunately not the Russian position." Syria's brutal four-year war has killed more than 240,000 people and displaced millions.

Analysts: Russia Hitting All of Assad's Opponents
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 01/15/Syrian rebels who oppose both the regime and the Islamic State group have been hit hardest by Russian air strikes, showing Moscow's determination to defend President Bashar Assad against all enemies, analysts say. More than four years into Syria's devastating war, Russian warplanes began air strikes there on Wednesday, saying they were targeting IS jihadists and "other terrorist groups." But Western officials said they had indications the Kremlin was concentrating its attacks on anti-Assad factions instead of jihadists. Experts and a key monitoring group say that Moscow's targets show it intends to strike all opposition groups opposed to Damascus -- jihadist or otherwise -- in an effort to save Assad. "Moscow has entered Syria to hit not just Daesh, but all groups it regards as terrorists, including those supported by the Gulf monarchies and Turkey," said Syria specialist Fabrice Balanche, using the Arabic acronym for the group. "The first wave of Russian air strikes seemed to focus on rebel areas that threaten the Assad regime's Alawite heartland, showing that Moscow is more focused on seizing the mantle in Syria's war than fighting terrorists," he wrote in a policy brief for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Bombing to support Assad
Over the past two days, Russian strikes have targeted areas held by Syria's al-Qaida affiliate al-Nusra Front, powerful Islamist group Ahrar al-Sham, and smaller moderate groups -- some of which have received direct backing from the United States and Arab states.The raids have hit the provinces of Idlib in northwest Syria, Latakia on the coast, and Homs and Hama in the center. IS is not known to have a presence in any of the targeted areas. According to a Syrian security source, the Kremlin "considers IS, Nusra, and other rebels all as terrorist groups," as does the Assad regime, the source told AFP. Over the past four years of war, the Syrian regime has taken great pains to paint all of its opponents -- even non-violent activists -- as "terrorists." Analysts say that instead of striking areas where IS is strongest, like in its bastion province of Raqa, the Russian air force has opted to concentrate on areas where the regime is under greatest threat. "Russia's objective is defending the regime. In this context, the non-jihadist armed opposition represents the most pressing threat," said Peter Harling of the International Crisis Group think tank. Although a U.S.-led coalition bombing jihadists in Syria for more than a year has also struck al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham positions, the priority has remained IS. According to Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for human Rights, "the Russians are bombing to support the regime in the provinces of Homs, Hama, and Latakia where Alawite areas have been threatened or attacked." The Alawite sect is the offshoot of Shiite Islam to which the Assad clan belongs.
Trap for the Russians
Abdel Rahman said a major concern for Assad's beleaguered regime was a key "triangle" that ran across parts of Homs and Hama and included Talbisseh and Rastan -- struck by Russian warplanes on Wednesday. He said recent rebel advances in these areas threatened a major regime supply route north towards Aleppo province. "A few weeks ago, al-Nusra and other rebels used Talbisseh to launch an attack on nearby Alawite villages like Farrakhan," Abdel Rahman told AFP. Al-Nusra had also threatened nearby Christian and Alawite villages, which is why the Russians chose to target Talbisseh, the Observatory said. And in northwest Syria, Russians had struck Jabal al-Akrad, which rebels seized in 2012 and have used since to fire rockets at Latakia airport and Qardaha, Assad's ancestral homeland. Moscow also targeted positions in Idlib province, which Assad's forces lost earlier this year after lightning offensives by the Army of Conquest group. The Kremlin's military involvement is a bid "to help (the regime) hold on, in hopes that the opposing party will accept it," Harling told AFP. But Karim Bitar, head of research at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris, said "these strikes further complicate the conflict... and could turn into a real trap for the Russians."

Iraqi PM Prepared to Consider Russian Air Strikes on IS in Iraq
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 01/15/Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said in a TV interview shown Thursday he would consider allowing Russia to carry out air strikes on Islamic State jihadists on Iraqi territory if Moscow offered. With Russia already bombing what it says are "terrorist" positions in Syria, Abadi told France 24 in an interview recorded Wednesday: "It is a possibility. If we get the offer, we will consider it."But he added: "It is a possibility. If we get the offer, we will consider it."The interview was done a day before senior Russian foreign ministry official Ilya Rogachyov on Thursday said Moscow was prepared to consider expanding its military campaign beyond Syria to launch strikes against IS targets in Iraq, if Baghdad asked it to do so. But Russian officials appeared to be giving mixed signals, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov saying shortly afterwards that no expansion to Iraq was planned. "We are not planning to expand our air strikes to Iraq," Lavrov told a news conference at the United Nations in New York. "We were not invited, we were not asked, and we are polite people, as you know. We don't come if not invited.""Syria has massive information on Daesh (another term for the Islamic State group), and their operations," said Abadi. "They are sharing, it is useful. Russia seems to have a lot of information too. The more information we gather, the more it is useful for Iraq."

Report: Hundreds of Iranian troops arrive in Syria
Reuters, Beirut/Thursday, 1 October 2015/Hundreds of Iranian troops arrived in Syria 10 days ago with weapons to take part in ground operations in rebel-held areas of northern Syria, and Lebanon's ally Hezbollah is preparing to join the operation, Lebanese sources told Reuters on Thursday. "The (Russian) air strikes will in the near future be accompanied by ground advances by the Syrian army and its allies," said one of the sources familiar with political and military developments in the conflict."It is possible that the coming land operations will be focused in the Idlib and Hama countryside," the source added. The two sources said the operation would be aimed at recapturing territory lost by President Bashar al-Assad's government to rebels. It points to an emerging military alliance between Russia and Assad's other main allies - Iran and Hezbollah - focused on recapturing areas of northwestern Syria that were seized by insurgents in rapid advances earlier this year."The vanguard of Iranian ground forces began arriving in Syria: soldiers and officers specifically to participate in this battle. They are not advisors ... we mean hundreds with equipment and weapons. They will be followed by more," the second source said. Iraqis would also take part in the operation, the source said. Thus far, direct Iranian military support for Assad has come mostly in the form of military advisors. Iran has also mobilised Shi'ite militia fighters, including Iraqis and some Afghans, to fight alongside Syrian government forces.
Lebanon's Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, has been fighting alongside the Syrian army since early in the conflict. The Russian air force began air strikes in Syria on Wednesday, targeting areas near the cities of Homs and Hama in the west of the country, where Assad's forces are fighting an array of insurgent groups, though not Islamic State, which is based mostly in the north and east. An alliance of insurgent groups including the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front and powerful Ahrar al-Sham made rapid gains in Idlib province earlier this year, completely expelling the government from the area bordering Turkey.

Tehran Confirms Death of Ex-Lebanon Envoy Roknabadi in Hajj Stampede
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 01/15/Tehran announced on Thursday that four of its diplomats, including its former Lebanese ambassador, were killed in the hajj stampede in Saudi Arabia, reported the Iranian Students News Agency (Isna). The news agency ended days of speculation over the fate of former envoy Ghazanfar Roknabadi, 49, who was attending the annual Muslim gathering. Earlier on Thursday Iran nearly doubled its death toll from last week's hajj pilgrimage stampede to 464, saying there was no hope of finding pilgrims missing after the tragedy. Until last year, Roknabadi was Tehran's envoy to Beirut, a highly sensitive post. He served in the post from 2010 to 2014. Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli visited Roknabadi's family in Tehran on Thursday and sent president Hassan Rouhani's condolences, Isna reported. Iranian foreign ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham denied reports by some Arab media that he had traveled to Saudi Arabia under a false name. "He entered with a normal passport to perform the hajj" and "his identity and that of other missing pilgrims have been provided to Saudi Arabia," she said. Iranian media published a photo of his passport with a Saudi visa. Saudi and Iranian health ministers agreed after days of fierce debate to repatriate Iranian pilgrims killed in the stampede.

Iran Nearly Doubles its Stampede Toll as it Agrees with Saudi to Repatriate Dead
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 01/15/Iran on Thursday nearly doubled its death toll from the hajj stampede to 464, giving up hope of finding missing pilgrims alive after a tragedy that has sparked a major row with Saudi Arabia. After Iran threatened a "fierce" response to delays repatriating its dead, Tehran and Riyadh reached an agreement to speed up the return of the bodies of Iranian victims. Tehran has accused its regional rival Saudi Arabia of hindering its efforts to bring home the bodies. The Islamic republic has the highest confirmed death toll among foreign nationalities by far, accounting for more than half of the 769 killed, followed by Egypt with 75. "Seven days after this tragic accident... the status of all (pilgrims) injured has been completely cleared and reported," Iran's hajj organization said in a statement Thursday carried by state television. Around 240 Iranians were previously declared dead after the crush on September 24 near Mecca, with more than 200 classified as missing. Ali Marashi, head of the Iranian Red Crescent's hajj medical center in Tehran, said that his organization had visited hospitals looking for the missing "and sadly we have not found even one person who might be Iranian". Iran's IRNA news agency quoted Health Minister Hassan Hashemi as saying that he and his Saudi counterpart Khaled al-Falih had agreed to "speed up the repatriation process".
"We were assured that no Iranian would be buried (in Saudi Arabia) without the permission of the government and their relatives," he said. Those unidentified bodies who are clearly Iranian would be repatriated first and identified at home, Hashemi added. "Saudi officials are failing to do their duties," Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a speech Wednesday to graduating navy officers. "They should know that the slightest disrespect towards tens of thousands of Iranian pilgrims in Mecca and Medina and not fulfilling their obligation to transfer holy bodies will have Iran's tough and fierce reaction." The missing included four Iranian diplomats, who the official Isna news agency said are thought to have died. Ghazanfar Roknabadi, 49, the country's former ambassador to Lebanon, a highly sensitive post, is among the four. Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli visited Roknabadi's family in Tehran on Thursday and sent president Hassan Rouhani's condolences, Isna reported. "The fate of 16 other Iranian pilgrims is still unclear according to latest figures," Rahmani Fazli told the ex-diplomat's family.The two regional rivals were already at odds over Iran's support for Shiite Huthi rebels in Yemen, where a Saudi-led Arab coalition has waged months of air strikes against the insurgents.Riyadh has accused Tehran of playing politics with the hajj tragedy. On Wednesday the coalition said it had seized an Iranian boat in the Arabian Sea loaded with weapons destined for Yemeni rebels. It said the boat, registered to an Iranian as a fishing vessel, was carrying 18 Concourse anti-armor shells, 54 BGM17 anti-tank shells, 15 shell battery kits, four firing guidance systems and various items of launch-related equipment. A source in Iran's foreign ministry later rejected the claims as "propaganda", IRNA reported. Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia and its allies have repeatedly accused their Shiite rival Iran of arming the Huthi rebels, who have seized swathes of Yemen including the capital.

HRW Says Yemen War Probe Scrapped under Saudi Pressure
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 01/15/A Western-backed resolution calling for a U.N. investigation into rights abuses committed during the conflict in Yemen was withdrawn due to protests from Saudi Arabia, Human Rights Watch said Thursday. The Dutch-drafted U.N. rights council resolution, co-sponsored by Germany and six other European states, called for U.N. rights chief Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein "to dispatch a mission... to monitor and report on the situation of human rights in Yemen." It called for the probe to focus on "abuse of human rights and violations of international humanitarian law since September 2014."But the council announced late Wednesday that the Dutch text had been withdrawn and that the draft set for adoption on Friday is a Saudi proposal in which does not include a call for an inquiry. "It's truly a missed opportunity," said Philippe Dam of Human Rights Watch. "What explains it? It was Saudi Arabia's total opposition," to the resolution. Saudi airstrikes targeting Yemen's Iran-backed Huthi rebels began in March, and the kingdom's offensive to defend embattled President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi has persisted since then. In what the U.N. said may have been the single deadliest episode since the conflict widened in March, a suspected air strike by the Saudi-led Arab coalition killed at least 131 civilians at a wedding near the Red Sea city of Mokha. The coalition denied involvement. The decision to scrap the call for a U.N.-led inquiry was driven "by the preference of the British and the Americans for consensus," said Dam, who was an observer to the negotiations on the Dutch draft. He added that Britain and the U.S. faced a choice "between justice and the strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia", which remains a major supplier of oil to the West. Saudi-Iranian tensions over Yemen have continued to intensify, with the coalition saying this week that it had seized a boat 150 nautical miles off the Omani port of Salalah, loaded with weapons destined for Yemeni rebels. The coalition said the boat was registered to an Iranian as a fishing vessel.

How Russia bombed a UN Heritage Site in Syria
Ana Maria Luca & Myra Abdallah/Now Lebanon/October 01/15
An area of over six square kilometers ignited all of a sudden. The whole region was ablaze in seconds. Kafranbel-based Raed Fares said he has seen the town being bombed by the Syrian regime before. “But I have never seen anything like this in my life,” he told NOW, minutes after the Russian jets had bombed the outskirts of his town. “I don’t know what kind of missile this was, but the impact was huge, scary.”The Russian jets showed up around noon on Thursday and the bomb hit an archeological Byzantine complex in the vicinity of Kafranbel. “It used to be a refugee camp until recently, but the Free Syrian Army brigades returned the civilians to their homes in the towns in the area so that the historical monuments wouldn’t be damaged,” he said.Kafranbel is a small town in Syria’s Idlib Governorate. Before the war it was home to roughly 15,000 people, mostly Sunni Muslims. It was Syria’s largest producer of figs and a major producer of olives. It also sits on a dead Byzantine city and is surrounded by some of the famous Forgotten Cities, the 700 abandoned settlements in northwest Syria between Aleppo and Idlib that were abandoned between the 8th and 10th centuries. Serjilla, Shanshrah, and Al-Bara are close to modern-day Kafranbel. The Russians bombed Shanshrah, a UN World Heritage Site, twice on Thursday.
The US-backed rebels and the Byzantine ruins
The Forgotten Cities, many frozen in time, trace the transition from ancient pagan Rome to Christian Byzantium. But during the Syrian war, refugees that fled the regime’s bombings found shelter in the Byzantine ruins. Most of them came from Maarat Naaman and Jabal al-Zawye, an activist from Kafranbel told NOW. They built houses on the ruins and rebuilt rooms with broken walls and simply lived there. They also lived in the ancient caves that once served as cemeteries, the activist said. According to Khaled Issa, a freelance photojournalist based in Kafranbel, an Ahrar al-Sham brigade and a group of the town’s residents that police the area decided to evacuate the displaced people and move them to Kafranbel. The militants set up checkpoints around the ruins to protect them from damage and theft. “It is a touristic area, it has a green field. Fortunately, today is a day off and it’s very possible that there were no civilians there,” he told NOW. The activist in Kafranbel told NOW that residents expected the town itself to be bombed. “We think the air strikes targeted Ahrar al-Sham. We have no Islamic State militants here,” he insisted.
The little Syrian town that could
Kafranbel has become famous over the past two years not for its ancient ruins but for the residents’ witty banners and social media campaigns against the Assad regime. Raed Fares is the man behind the town’s Twitter account, Facebook page and the town’s website Liberated Kafranbel. Activists there have conquered the Internet with their amusing banners and posts in English. The latest was about Russia: “It is queer to let the Russian bear destroy Syria, while the US donkey is enjoying chewing hey [sic] on its borders,” it read. Kafranbel is a well-known center of the opposition against Assad, but it has never been taken over by extremist groups and ISIS has kept away. “The closest ISIS location to Kafranbel is at least 100 kilometers away. Those ruins were protected by Ahrar al-Sham brigades and Kafranbel residents because they were stolen and damaged many times,” Issa said. Fares said that their relentless secular spirit is what kept the extremist factions at bay. “We are fighting Al-Nusra Front, ISIS and other extremists;we are fighting them over the radio stations, organizing demonstrations, publishing magazines, spraying graffiti on walls; by opening centers to support women, and psychological support centers for children. We also have centers to document human rights violations,” Fares said.
Why was Kafranbel targeted?
Kafranbel hosts a few rebel brigades that many residents simply call the Free Syrian Army: Ahrar al-Sham, local unaffiliated groups and Foursan al-Haq [The Righteous Knights]. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the Russian military selects its targets in cooperation with the Syrian Army. “We have a list of terrorist organizations. We know them,” he said. It’s the first time that a Moscow official has admitted that the Russian air strikes are not just targeting ISIS, but also other rebel groups. In the meantime, Reuters quoted well-informed Lebanese sources as saying that Russia, Iran and the Syrian government are planning a ground offensive in northern Syria. The report claims that hundreds of Iranian troops have arrived in Syria to join Hezbollah and the Syrian regime for a major ground offensive in Idlib and Hama Countryside, to be backed by Russian airstrikes. Thursday was the second day Russia conducted strikes on rebel targets in Syria. On Wednesday, Russia struck several of what what it said were ISIS targets in mountainous areas in Hama and Homs Governorates, but opposition sources said that fewer extremist groups were hit and 40 civilians, including 8 children, had been killed. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the reports of civilian casualties had not been verified. “The Russians must leave us alone; we can settle our own things,” Fares told NOW. “They came here to hit the Free Syrian Army factions only. If they just want to hit ISIS as they are claiming, let them go to Raqqa, the ISIS stronghold. They came just to support Bashar Assad and his regime and to hit the Free Syrian Army factions.”
Amin Nasr contributed with translation.
Graphic by Tania Radwan.

The bear in Syria
Haid Haid/Now Lebanon/October 01/15
Russian warplanes carried out airstrikes in three Syrian provinces, including Homs, along with regime aircraft on 30 September, according to a Syrian security source. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported at least 27 civilians had been killed. (AFP/Mahmoud Taha)
“We propose discussing whether it is possible to agree on a resolution aimed at coordinating the actions of all the forces that confront the Islamic State and other terrorist organizations.” This is what the Russian PresidentVladimir Putin suggested in his speech addressing the UN General Assembly onMonday.
The majority of international powers publically condemned Russia’s recent increased support for Assad in recent weeks, but some seem to have changed their position, especially after Russia’s proposed plan to create a broader coalition to fight ISIS in Syria in cooperation with Assad. The absence of other easy plans to defat ISIS and the hopes that the Russian forces would make a significant difference in degrading them may have been part of the reasons behind this change. This potential cooperation with Russia to fight ISIS raises many questions about the effectiveness of such a coalition in fighting ISIS. What will the ramifications of such a coalition on the local and regional dynamics of Syria’s conflict be? What impact will such a coalition have on Syria’s future?
Fighting ISIS
While the level of Russia’s involvement in the fight against ISIS will become clear when the size and types of forces deployed in Syria are known, Russian forces are expected to provide pro-regime groups with firepower, air support and combat effectiveness. If Russia’s intervention in Syria is limited to that then it is not expected to be a game changer. On the contrary, it might do more harm than good. The US-led coalition against ISIS — consisting of more than 62 countries, including prominent Arab nations — flying a dozen airstrikes a day has shown how difficult it is to defeat the group without a comprehensive strategy. US airstrikes have hit about 10,000 targets, killing an estimated 15,000 ISIS fighters. The total US presence on the ground in Iraq, filling various roles including training and support, is now up to 3,550 troops. The the airstrikes may have limited ISIS's ability to launch large-scale attacks and operate easily, but they have not been able to weaken the group or stop it from expanding. Airstrikes alone have limited impact. To increase their effectiveness, boots on the ground are needed to secure the areas they target. But Russia is expected to financially invest less than the US in the war against ISIS due to the EU sanctions against it, and by using pro-Assad forces as local partners, Moscow is not taking into consideration the lack of manpower the Assad regime is suffering from. Russia also seems to be ignoring the military losses Assad faced in recent months in various areas of Syria, which indicated a significant decrease in the regime’s ability to advance against rebels. Therefore, Russia’s current coalition is highly unlikely to be a game changer in the fight against ISIS.
The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy
The Russian Ministry of Defence confirmed launching its first airstrikes in Syria, claiming to have targeted ISIS equipment in 20 strikes. Washington, however, says that the targets struck in Homs don’t belong to ISIS. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also said that at least 27 people, including five women and six children, were killed by airstrikes in the area. The conflicting accounts of which targets had been struck are most likely not related to a lack of information. For Russia, all armed groups opposing Assad are ISIS sleeper cells, which is exactly what Putin said in his UN address: “First, they are armed and trained and then they defect to the so-called Islamic State.” Therefore, targeting those groups is a conscious decision to stop them from overthrowing Assad.
Destroying ISIS also requires driving a wedge between ISIS and the Sunni community and encouraging Sunnis to join the fight against it militarily and morally by countering the group’s conservative religious discourse with a moderate Sunni discourse. But the Syrian regime and Iran will not help win over the Sunni community by partnering with Russia — on the contrary, it will encourage many more Sunnis to either join ISIS or support it against Assad. Hostility between the Syrian regime and some regional and Western nations has reached such a degree of intractability that it is hard to envision the success of any regional and international anti-terrorism coalition that works with Assad. Such a coalition with Russia and Assad will push several important regional players that are important to destroying ISIS — including Turkey and Saudi Arabia — to distance themselves. Furthermore, some players are expected to react to the cooperation with Assad with more support for the rebels in turn. A joint coalition between Russia and Assad will lead to a far more complex situation in Syria and the region. It will be more difficult for regional and international members in this coalition to find partners among rebel groups to fight ISIS, which will limit them to working with pro-Assad forces. On top of that, members of this coalition might become a target for rebel groups, as they will be seen as pro-Assad forces. Assad is expected to use this opportunity to increase aerial attacks on his opponents and to continue using them as a collective punishment of civilians. This will most likely prolong the conflict and both internally displace more people and create more refugees. “I'm confident that by working together, we will make the world stable and safe,” Putin said in New York on Monday. But contrary to Putin’s overblown confidence in front of the UN General Assembly, the Russia-Assad coalition will merely lead to more chaos and bloodshed — it will not prove effective in the internationally-shared goal of defeating the Islamic State.
**Haid Haid is a program manager at the Heinrich Böll Stiftung’s office in Beirut. He tweets @HaidHaid22

Putin enters Syria’s quagmire
Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/ October 01/15
In September of 2013, Russian President Vladimir Putin took to the pages of the New York Times to warn the United States that a potential strike against Syria “will result in more innocent victims and escalation, potentially spreading the conflict far beyond Syria’s borders.” Two years later, Moscow starts out its own bombing campaign in Syria, targeting so far moderate rebels in an attempt to save the Assad regime and improve its geopolitical stature. Russia’s political posturing aside, Syria today is no place to achieve grandiosity, or claim victories in the Middle East. It is a humanitarian disaster unseen in recent Arab history, a magnet for mercenaries from Afghanistan to Nigeria, and a breeding ground for extremism. If anything, Russia’s intervention on behalf of the Assad regime and aided by Hezbollah and IRGC, will only prolong the conflict, prompt further escalation while derailing the path to a political settlement.
Assad is Russia's redline
The first day of Russian air strikes targeting anti-Assad moderate rebels, leaves no doubt that Putin's entry into the Syrian war is primarily about saving Assad and not fighting ISIS. Putin is not even shy about it, telling Charlie Rose last Sunday when asked if the goal is to save Assad, “That's right, that's how it is...we provide assistance to legitimate Syrian authorities.” Problem is these authorities have lost all their legitimacy, and Syria can’t be saved absent of a major political compromise that neither Assad nor Russia have been willing to make.The war that has dragged thousands of foreign proxies and fighters into its battlefield for the last four years now has the potential for lasting another four. For Russia, compromising on Assad is a sign of weakness and a redline in its negotiations with the West. Throughout the conflict and while Putin would make public statements that “we are not that preoccupied with the fate of Assad's regime”, it is the exactly fate of Assad regime that halted the progress. Russia has rejected a timetable for Assad to leave power, and is against an overhaul of the Syrian security apparatus that it has invested in since the 1970s. Today, even after all the barrel bombing, the sarin gas, the massacres in schools, vegetable markets and bakeries, Putin’s bet is still on the Assad regime and a manufactured opposition. Prolonging Assad’s life in power prioritizes targeting the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels threatening regime near Wadi Ghab and Daraa and Homs. ISIS for its part is not a direct threat to the regime and there are no signs that Russia will go after its strongholds in Raqqa and Deir Zour at the time being. Putin’s goals appear to focus on solidifying Assad’s positions on the coastline and the Southern front, support his wearied army , enforce new facts on the ground to improve Assad’s standing in any future negotiations. These goals, however, are easier set than done and Russia has not been even able to make the regime release key hostages or halt the barrel bombings in Syria. Regionally, Putin’s airstrikes are already fueling an anti-Russian sentiment in the Arab blogosphere. Arabic hashtags bearing the names “Russian aggression” or “Russian occupation of Syria” have trended on twitter, and photos of dead children in the attacks on Homs are on display against the images of Putin, Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and Assad.
“A new Afghanistan”?
In the lead up to Russia’s escalation, U.S. President Barack Obama reportedly conveyed to Putin this message: Moscow is at a fork in the road in Syria and has to choose between a political settlement or military escalation that would create a “new Afghanistan”. This and U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter warning yesterday that Moscow’s airstrikes are “pouring gasoline on the fire”, reignite the debate of whether Russia’s mission in Syria will galvanize the Jihadists as it did in Afghanistan three decades ago. Similar to Syria, the former Soviet Union sent “advisers” early on in the seventies to Afghanistan to suppress the rebellion, before escalating to thousands of troops in eighties to fight insurgent groups or Mujahedeen and then being forced to withdraw in 1989. Twenty six years later, Russia is trying to defeat the Syrian insurgency from air while relying on Assad’s, and Hezbollah’s forces as the boots on the ground. If the objective of Russia’s intervention is to just defeat ISIS, Putin could have joined the 60-plus members coalition led by the United States. In Russia’s view there is little to no difference between the fighters of Jaish Fateh, Nusra, Ahrar Sham and ISIS. This loose branding of the opposition, and collective bombing from air could coalesce these groups together under the cause of targeting Russia’s assets in Syria. Russian intelligence officials also estimated recently that 1,700 of their nationals have joined ISIS to fight in Syria and Iraq, a high figure that opens the risk of returnees and attacks inside Russia.
Russia’s shortsightedness was also evident in planning for this escalation, by receiving in Moscow last July the leader of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Qassem Suleimani. The Iranian General operates at large in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, training sectarian militias and promoting the agenda of Iran’s hardliners. But Suleimani’s and Hezbollah’s own quagmire in Syria in last two years and after losing over 1500 fighters should offer Russia lessons rather than become the cause of inspiration. Hezbollah has been trying to liberate the town of Zabadani in Syria for three months now, and other than population transfers, the party has no political plan or exit strategy in place. There is no winning or grandstanding moments any longer in Syria. The war that has dragged thousands of foreign proxies and fighters into its battlefield for the last four years now has the potential for lasting another four. Its settlement will not come through temporary airstrikes or half-hearted political measures. In that vein, Russia's new role is no exception.

Are ‘enemies’ a political need in our world?
Mohammed Fahad al-Harthi/Al Arabiya/ October 01/15
What many people perceive as their enemy could in fact be a fabrication used to manipulate them for political ends. Historically, it is no secret that many countries have formulated domestic and foreign policies to create “bogeymen” that would unite people and ensure political stability. The United States, among others, used this strategy during World War 2 against Nazi Germany, then later labeled the Soviet Union as the “Evil Empire,” and is now involved in a “War on Terror.”However, some see this creation of an enemy to be nothing more than an attempt by the purveyors of the “military-industrial complex” to make money out of armed conflict, with the principal stakeholders, politicians and public and private arms manufacturers. Adolf Hitler united Germans by creating a common enemy that he effectively portrayed with his propaganda machine as those trying to destroy the country. Nazism helped Germany expand rapidly across Europe before its final defeat.
False talk
In the Arab world, there are many countries trying to portray themselves as “revolutionary” and “progressive” by labeling Israel as their enemy. These regimes have boasted of waging wars that would wipe Israel off the map. In reality they have failed to shoot one bullet at the Zionist regime, and have simply used their so-called “noble struggle” against Israel to silence their opponents and remain in power. It is vital to leave religion out of political disputes because this can lead to uncontrollable violence. Using this strategy, these regimes have blocked any real attempts to ensure democratic measures take root in their countries. Their media houses are guilty of colluding with them to create the impression they are engaged in a war, which has in fact never taken place. Pierre Conesa, an academic and a former French Defense Ministry official, in his book “Fabrication of the Enemy: Or How to Kill People with a Clean Conscience,” explains how regimes extend their stay in power by keeping alive a manufactured enemy either outside the country or internally. Bashar al-Assad in Syria has successfully used this approach to stay in power by creating the impression that ISIS is the only enemy, conveniently ignoring his regime’s terrorizing of the Syrian people. It is now politically expedient for Assad to ensure the continued existence of ISIS, to divert international attention away from his crimes. Recent statements by politicians from some of the world’s leading nations show that Assad has succeeded in this strategy.
This strategy has deep philosophical roots, which can be traced to that age-old fight between good and evil. There are various manifestations of this conflict, which includes using notions of identity to separate people. The late Edward Said, the intellectual and thinker on Orientalism, once said that crises of identity are more evident in nations struggling to modernize. As they try to adapt, people tend to hold onto perceived identities and create a defense against the perceived “others,” which is the ideal environment for conflict. Politics is very much dominated by immoral opportunists. When these operators are allowed to create an enemy with religious affiliations, there is every possibility that these opponents can never be befriended. It then becomes a misguided nation’s sacred duty to eliminate these people. It is therefore vital to leave religion out of political disputes because this can lead to uncontrollable violence. As they say, the only thing constant in politics is change, where today’s enemies can be tomorrow’s friends.

Germany's Sharia Refugee Sheltersو "Bulk of Migrants Cannot Be Integrated"
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/October 01/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6614/germany-sharia-refugee-shelters
Christians, Kurds and Yazidis in the shelters are being attacked by Muslims with increasing frequency and ferocity.
"I fled from the Iranian secret service because I thought that in Germany I could finally live my faith without persecution. But in the refugee shelter, I cannot admit that I am a Christian, or I would face threats... They treat me like an animal. They threaten to kill me." — An Iranian Christian in a German refugee shelter."We have to dispense with the illusion that all of those who are coming here are human rights activists. ... We are getting reports of threats of aggression, including threats of beheading, by Sunnis against Shiites, but Yazidis and Christians are the most impacted. Those Christian converts who do not hide their faith stand a 100% probability of being attacked and mobbed." — Max Klingberg, director of the Frankfurt-based International Society for Human Rights.
"We are observing that Salafists are appearing at the shelters disguised as volunteers and helpers, deliberately seeking contact with refugees to invite them to their mosques to recruit them to their cause." — Hans-Georg Maaßen, head of German intelligence.
Police are urgently calling for migrants of different faiths to be housed in separate facilities. Some politicians counter that such segregation would go against Germany's multicultural values.
"The bulk of the migrants who are arriving here cannot be integrated." — Heinz Buschkowsky, former mayor of Berlin's Neukölln district.
Muslim asylum seekers are enforcing Islamic Sharia law in German refugee shelters, according to police, who warn that Christians, Kurds and Yazidis in the shelters are being attacked by Muslims with increasing frequency and ferocity.
Muslim migrants from different sects, clans, ethnicities and nationalities are also attacking each other. Violent brawls — sometimes involving hundreds of migrants — are now a daily occurrence.
Police say the shelters, where thousands of migrants are housed together in cramped spaces for months at a time, are seething cauldrons ready to explode. The police are urgently calling for migrants of different faiths to be housed in separate facilities.
Some politicians counter that such segregation would go against Germany's multicultural values, while others say that separating hundreds of thousands of migrants by religion and nationality would be a logistical impossibility.
As the consequences of unrestrained migration become apparent, the tide of public opinion is turning against the government's open-door policy. Observers say that German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the so-called most powerful woman in the world, may have met her Waterloo.
A report published by the newspaper Die Welt on September 27 sheds light on the targeting of Christians by Muslims in German refugee shelters. The paper interviewed an Iranian convert to Christianity who said:
"In Iran, the Revolutionary Guards arrested my brother in a house church. I fled from the Iranian secret service because I thought that in Germany I could finally live my faith without persecution. But in the refugee shelter, I cannot admit that I am a Christian, or I would face threats.
"Muslims wake me before the crack of dawn during Ramadan and say that I should eat before sunrise. When I decline, they call me a kuffar, an unbeliever. They spit at me. They treat me like an animal. They threaten to kill me."
At a refugee shelter in Hemer, a town in North Rhine-Westphalia, 10 Algerian asylum seekers attacked a Christian couple from Eritrea with glass bottles. The Muslims said they were angry that the man was wearing a cross. They ripped the cross from his neck and stole his money and cellphone.
Die Welt also interviewed an Iraqi Christian family from Mosul who were living at a refugee shelter in the Bavarian town of Freising. The father said that threats by Islamists were a daily fact of life. "They shouted at my wife and hit my child," he said. "They say: 'We will kill you and drink your blood.'" Life in the shelter, he said, was as if in a prison.
According to the director of the Munich-based Central Committee for Oriental Christians, Simon Jacob, these incidents are only "the tip of the iceberg." "The actual number of attacks is very high," he said. "We have to expect further conflict, which the migrants bring to Germany from their homelands. Between Christians and Muslims. Between Shiites and Sunnis. Between Kurds and extremists. Between Yazidis and extremists."
Max Klingberg, the director of the Frankfurt-based International Society for Human Rights (Internationale Gesellschaft für Menschenrechte, IGFM), says that much of the aggression is being perpetrated by Afghans and Pakistanis, who are "even more Islamic than some Syrians and Iraqis." He warns that conflict in the refugee shelters will only become worse:
"We have to dispense with the illusion that all of those who are coming here are human rights activists. Among those who are arriving here now, a substantial number are at least as religiously intense as the Muslim Brotherhood.
"We are getting reports of threats of aggression, including threats of beheading, by Sunnis against Shiites, but Yazidis and Christians are the most impacted. Those Christian converts who do not hide their faith stand a 100% probability of being attacked and mobbed."
In a September 29 interview with the newspaper Passauer Neue Presse, the head of the German police union (Deutschen Polizeigewerkschaft, DPolG), Rainer Wendt, warned that "brutal criminal structures" have taken over the refugee shelters and that police are overwhelmed and unable to guarantee safety and security. He called for Christians and Muslims to be separated before someone gets killed:
"We have been witnessing this violence for weeks and months. Groups based on ethnicity, religion or clan structures go after each other with knives and homemade weapons. When these groups fight each other at night, all those German citizens who welcomed the migrants with open arms at the Munich train station are fast asleep, but the police remain awake and are left standing in the middle...
"We can only estimate the true extent of violence because women and children are often afraid to file a complaint. Since it is also about sexual abuse and rape...
"Sunnis are fighting Shiites, there are Salafists from competing groups. They are trying to impose their rules in the shelters. Christians are being massively oppressed and the Sharia is being enforced. Women are forced to cover up. Men are forced to pray. Islamists want to introduce their values and order at the shelters.
Wendt gave the interview days after 300 Albanian migrants clashed with 70 Pakistani migrants at a refugee shelter in Calden, a town in the state of Hesse, on September 27. More than a dozen people, including three police officers, were injured in the melee, which erupted after two migrants got into a fight while waiting in line at the canteen. It took 50 police officers several hours to restore order at the shelter, which is home to 1,500 migrants from 20 different countries.
More than 60 migrants, including ten children, were injured after Pakistanis and Syrians clashed at the same shelter on September 13. The fight broke out just after midnight, when someone sprayed mace into a tent filled with sleeping migrants. Police did not inform the public about the fight for more than a week, apparently to prevent fueling anti-immigrant sentiments.
Violent brawls are becoming commonplace at German refugee shelters across the country.
In the past two months alone, dozens of violent brawls and riots between different groups of migrants have erupted in Germany's refugee shelters.
On September 30, migrants went on a rampage at a refugee center in Braunschweig, a city in Lower Saxony. On September 29, Syrian migrants clashed at a refugee shelter in Gerolzhofen, a small town in Bavaria. Also on September 29, migrants from Algeria and Mali clashed at a refugee center in Engelskirchen, a town in North Rhine-Westphalia.
On September 28, more than 150 Syrians and Pakistanis clashed at a refugee shelter on Nöthnitzer Straße in Dresden. The migrants attacked each other with wooden planks and metal bars. Two dozen police officers were needed to restore order. More than 30 Syrians and Pakistanis clashed at the same shelter on August 10.
Also on September 28, between 100 and 150 migrants of different nationalities clashed at a refugee shelter in Donaueschingen, a town in the Black Forest. The trouble started over a dispute about who should be able to use the shower facilities first. On September 22, more than 400 migrants marched through town to protest conditions at the same facility. On September 15, a male migrant was attacked by another migrant for using a female bathroom at the shelter.
On September 24, around 100 Syrians and Afghans clashed at a refugee shelter in Leipzig, the largest city in Saxony. The fight broke out after a 17-year-old Afghan pulled a knife on an 11-year-old Syrian girl at the shelter, which houses 1,800 migrants. On September 23, migrants clashed at a refugee shelter for unaccompanied minors in Nuremberg.
On September 3, Syrian migrants attacked security guards at a refugee shelter in the Moabit district of Berlin. Also on September 3, Iraqi migrants attacked security guards at a refugee shelter in Heidelberg. A total of 21 squad cars were dispatched to restore order. On September 2, Algerian and Tunisian migrants clashed at the same shelter. A dozen police cars were deployed to restore order.
On September 3, migrants clashed at a refugee shelter in Hövelhof, a town in North Rhine-Westphalia. On September 2, migrants clashed at a refugee facility in Wolgast, a town in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Also on September 2, migrants clashed at a refugee center in Gütersloh, a town in North Rhine-Westphalia.
On September 1, migrants clashed at a refugee shelter in Delitzsch, a town in Saxony. A 27-year-old Tunisian migrant was killed after being stabbed by a 27-year-old migrant from Morocco. Also on September 1, a 15-year-old Somali migrant stabbed a 15-year-old Egyptian migrant with a scissors at a refugee center in the Groß Borstel district of Hamburg.
On September 1, Somali, Syrian and Albanian migrants clashed at a refugee center in Tegernsee, a small town in Bavaria. Also on September 1, migrants clashed at a refugee shelter in Heidelberg.
On August 31, Libyan and Tunisian migrants clashed at a refugee shelter in Hoyerswerda, a town in Saxony. Also on August 31, migrants clashed with each other and with security guards at a refugee shelter in Heidelberg. On August 30, a 25-year-old Sudanese migrant was arrested for going on a rampage at a refugee shelter in Jesteburg, a small town in Lower Saxony.
On August 29, a 17-year-old Algerian migrant was arrested for robbing the cellphones of other migrants at a refugee center in Elzach, a town in Baden-Württemberg. On August 25, 60 migrants went on a rampage at a refugee shelter in Karlsruhe.
On August 24, a migrant from Montenegro was stabbed by a migrant from Algeria at a refugee shelter in Seevetal, a town in Lower Saxony.
On August 22, Afghan migrants clashed at a refugee shelter in Rotenburg, a town in Hesse. Also on August 22, at least 20 migrants went on a rampage at a refugee center in Grafing, a town near Munich.
On August 21, migrants clashed at a refugee facility in Schwetzingen, also in Baden-Württemberg. Also on August 21, migrants clashed at a refugee center in the Marienthal district of Hamburg.
On August 16, 50 migrants attacked each other with broken tree branches, umbrellas and trash cans at a refugee center in Friedland, a town in Lower Saxony. The facility, which has a capacity of 700, is home to 2,400 migrants.
On August 19, at least 20 Syrian migrants staying at an overcrowded refugee shelter in the eastern German town of Suhl tried to lynch an Afghan migrant after he tore pages from a Koran and threw them in a toilet. More than 100 police officers intervened; they were attacked with stones and concrete blocks. Seventeen people were injured in the melee, including 11 refugees and six police officers. The Afghan is now under police protection. The president of the German state of Thuringia, Bodo Ramelow, said that to avoid similar violence in the future, Muslims of different nationalities must be separated.
On August 10, 40 migrants clashed at a refugee shelter on Bremer Straße in Dresden.
On August 1, 50 Syrians and Afghans clashed at the same shelter. More than 80 police officers were needed to restore order.
According to Jörg Radek, the vice chairman of Germany's police union, (Gewerkschaft der Polizei, GdP), police have reached the "absolute breaking point," and Christian and Muslim migrants should be housed separately. In a September 28 interview with the newspaper Die Welt, Radek said:
"Our officers are increasingly being called to respond to confrontations in refugee shelters. When there are 4,000 people in a shelter which only has space for 750, this leads to aggression where even something as insignificant as a walk to the restroom can lead to fisticuffs.
"We must do everything we can to prevent further outbreaks of violence. I think it makes perfect sense to separate migrants according to their religion."
Not everyone agrees. In an interview with N24 television, the former mayor of the Neukölln district of Berlin, Heinz Buschkowsky, warned that if migrants are separated by religion and nationality, Germany risks the permanent establishment of parallel societies throughout the country.
Buschkowsky said the first lesson migrants must learn when they arrive in Western countries is tolerance, and if they refuse to accept people of other faiths, their asylum applications should be rejected. He expressed pessimism about the possibility of integrating the current wave of migrants into German society: "The bulk of the migrants who are arriving here cannot be integrated."
Meanwhile, the head of German intelligence, Hans-Georg Maaßen, was warned that radical Muslims in Germany are canvassing the refugee shelters looking for new recruits. He said:
"Many of the asylum seekers have a Sunni religious background. In Germany there is a Salafist scene that sees this as a breeding ground. We are observing that Salafists are appearing at the shelters disguised as volunteers and helpers, deliberately seeking contact with refugees to invite them to their mosques to recruit them to their cause."
The editor of the newspaper Neue Westfälische, Ansgar Mönter, reports that Salafists in Bielefeld, a city in North Rhine-Westphalia, have already infiltrated refugee centers in the area by bringing toys, fruits and vegetables for the migrants.
Mönter says "naïve" politicians are contributing to the radicalization of refugees by are asking Muslim umbrella groups in the country to reach out to the migrants.
Mönter points out that the main Muslim groups in Germany all adhere to fundamentalist interpretations of Islam and are anti-Western in outlook. Some groups have ties to the Muslim Brotherhood while others want to implement Sharia law in Germany. According to Mönter, politicians should not be encouraging these groups to establish contact with the new migrants.
**Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. He is also Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group. Follow him on Facebook and on Twitter. His first book, Global Fire, will be out in early 2016.

Are You Expecting a New Iran?
Lawrence A. Franklin//Gatestone Institute/October 01/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6598/new-iran
If anyone is expecting any liberalization from Rouhani, please note that he is an even more trusted regime insider than Khatami.
The main reason there will not be a less aggressive foreign policy is that Iran's Presidency and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which negotiated the nuclear deal, have no power over the Islamic Republic's military, police, and intelligence agencies. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) and the Office of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei control all decisions in these arenas.
Unfortunately, there has been no diminution of influence or resolve among Iran's hard-liners, who control all of these institutions.
The military and theocratic cliques who dominate the regime will take full advantage of any opportunities created by the nuclear deal quickly and brutally to crush any attempt by Iranian reformers to expand political freedom or social reforms.
Are you expecting a new Iran? The most optimistic scenario by supporters of the nuclear deal with Iran is that the pact will bring about better relations between Tehran and Washington.
This presumptive script also suggests that Iranian pragmatists, emboldened by their success at the impending lifting of economic sanctions against Iran, will move to transform the regime's overall foreign policy. It also assumes that young supporters of President Hassan Rouhani will somehow "force" the regime to institute reforms that will lead to improved human rights as well as liberalization of the country's socially restrictive domestic policies.
In their view, apparently, as Tehran becomes more integrated, developing normal diplomatic ties with Western nation-states, its aggressively expansionist regional policy will become more tame and "manageable."
Unfortunately, considering the dark nature of the regime and its behavior during its 36 years of Islamist rule in Iran, this hope lacks any credibility. Given Iran's recent history, its unremittingly hostile statements and its continuing secretive, self-serving and antagonistic behavior, there seems ample precedent for the high-flown hopes of Western diplomats to be dashed.
After the election of Mohammad Khatami as President of Iran in 1997, many of America's most respected Iran analysts strenuously argued that the liberal evolution of Iran's revolution was already underway[1] -- wishful thinking that was also echoed by the United Kingdom's Iran analysts and diplomats.[2]
Regrettably, the opposite proved true. Scores of political dissidents were assassinated or disappeared, murdered by hard-line Iranian intelligence operatives of the Ministry of Information and Security (MOIS).[3] When liberal supporters of Khatami seized the initiative in order to accelerate the reform process, the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) published a letter threatening the dissolution of the Khatami Presidency (1997-2005). Khatami, a trusted ally and childhood friend of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, instantly stopped all attempts at reform, and watched as the MOIS and IRGC placed several of his advisors under arrest.
After the Khatami Era, the Iranian people elected, in August, 2005, the most reactionary president in the history of the regime: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Currently, many American diplomats, Congressional lawmakers, and acquisitive international businessmen are optimistically unpacking predictions about the current Presidency of Hassan Rouhani that are similar to their predictions about Khatami. If anyone, however, is expecting any liberalization from Rouhani, please note right now that he is an even more trusted regime insider than Khatami. Rouhani has been intimately involved in all of the Islamic Republic's military, strategic and political decisions for the last 35 years.
The main reason there will not be a less aggressive foreign policy is that Iran's Presidency and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which negotiated the nuclear deal, have no power over the Islamic Republic's military, police, and intelligence agencies.
The IRGC, MOIS, and the Office of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei control all decisions in these arenas.
Rouhani also cannot liberalize domestic regulations unless reforms are blessed by the theocratic institutions -- which have been quick to suppress any move to soften Iran's repressive domestic social and political laws.
These theocratic institutions -- such as the Guardian Council,[4] the Assembly of Experts,[5] and the Expediency Council[6] -- are the ideological watchdogs of the regime, and have more power than the Executive and Legislative branches of the Iranian government.
Moreover, the complex and specialized system of clerically-run courts are insulated from popular pressure.
Spot the difference...
At left, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. At right, Iran's President, Hassan Rouhani.
The pipedreams of many so-called Iran experts have had their optimistic scenarios go up in smoke before. Robin Wright, writing in June 2009, the heyday of the now-crushed "Green Movement" protests, gushed, "What they are doing, however, is forcing Iran's Islamic regime to face the same ideals that have swept across five continents over the last quarter of a century -- the supremacy of popular will, justice, accountability and the transparency of power."
Unfortunately, there has been no diminution of influence or resolve among Iran's hard-liners, who control all of these institutions.
On the contrary, the military and theocratic cliques who dominate the regime will take full advantage of any opportunities created by the nuclear deal quickly and brutally to crush any attempt by Iranian reformers to expand political freedom or social reforms.
*Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve, where he was a Military Attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Israel.
[1] Karim Sadjadpour, "The Future of Iran's Islamic Republic: Evolution or Revolution?," Bologna Center Journal of International Affairs.
[2] Iranian Students News Agency, 15 July 2013. Jack Straw when he was the UK's Foreign Minister under the Labor Government of Tony Blair believed that Khatami's Presidency would usher in a new era of cooperation between Iran and the West. Now as an executive member of the Iran-Britain Parliamentary Friendship Society, straw 'waxes poetic' about the Rouhani Presidency in a similar manner.
[3] Into the Shadows: Political Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran, by Michael Rubin. The Dissident Murders, p. 90. MOIS 'rogue operatives' and Fida'iyan Islam murdered several liberal intellectuals in late 1998.
[4] Council of Guardians is staffed by arch-reactionary Shia clerics and laymen who adjudicate on the Islamic and revolutionary legitimacy of all legislation passed by the Iranian Majles. The Council also passes judgment of the acceptability of every candidate for public office.
[5] The Assembly of Experts is a body of 86 high Shia clerics who serve 8 year terms and who elect and/or depose the Supreme Leader.
[6] The Council for the Discernment of Expediency is a body of policy experts that seeks a compromise solution when key institutions of the regime cannot resolve their differences.
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U.S. Intelligence-Gathering on ISIS Threatened in Africa
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/October 01/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6615/djibouti-intelligence-isis
The increasingly erratic conduct of one of Africa's more despotic rulers, as well as his tilt toward China, is raising serious concerns about the future of a vital American intelligence-gathering base that plays a central role in targeting al-Qaeda and Islamic State militants in countries such as Yemen and Syria.
It will be the first time a head of state has been ordered to appear before a British court since King Charles I of England in 1649, who was subsequently beheaded for treason.
The increasingly erratic conduct of one of Africa's more despotic rulers is raising serious concerns about the future of a vital American intelligence-gathering base that plays a central role in targeting al-Qaeda and Islamic State (ISIS) militants in countries such as Yemen and Syria.
Since coming to power 1999, President Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa, has emerged as a vital ally of the United States, in spite of his despotic style of government and mounting criticism over his country's lamentable record on human rights.
American officials fear that President Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti (left) is turning away from his alliance with the U.S., jeopardizing one America's key intelligence listening posts, which is located in Djibouti. (Image source: White House video screenshot)
Successive American administrations -- including that of President Barack Obama, who claims to champion greater democracy in Africa -- have willingly turned a blind eye to Mr. Guelleh's dictatorial style, in return for being allowed to operate the Camp Lemonnier military base that is located in the strategically-important African state.
Sited at the junction between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, the sprawling Camp Lemmonier complex, which houses 4,500 U.S. military personnel and is the only U.S. military based located in Africa, has developed into one of America's key listening posts since the September 11, 2001 attacks. Apart from being a sophisticated communications centre for the Arab world and beyond, it also houses U.S. Special Forces, fighter planes and helicopters, as well as being a major operational center for drone operations in Africa and the Middle East.
But the unpredictable behaviour of Mr. Guelleh, who has been summoned to make an unprecedented appearance at a London court next month, has prompted senior counter-terrorism officials in Washington to question whether the U.S. can afford to maintain its decade-long alliance with the Djibouti strongman.
Mr. Guelleh will certainly find himself under intense scrutiny next week, after a judge at London's Commercial Court, which is hearing fraud claims lodged by the Djibouti government, took the extraordinary decision to rule that Mr. Guelleh must appear in person, rather than via video link, when the court resumes its hearings on October 5. The judge made the order after Mr. Guelleh's legal team were accused of deliberately misleading the court. It will be the first time a head of state has been ordered to appear before a British court since King Charles I of England in 1649, who was subsequently beheaded for treason.
But while this unique twist in the forthcoming legal proceedings is likely to dominate the headlines when the case resumes, it is the effect Mr. Guelleh's erratic conduct is having on Djibouti's political stability, as well as the country's worrying tilt towards China, that is causing most concern for the Pentagon.
In recent months Mr. Guelleh has intensified his efforts to form a strategic partnership with China, which is keen to expand its military presence throughout the African continent. China, which is already contracted to build a railway linking Djibouti to Ethiopia, has negotiated a $400 million deal to develop Djibouti's port facilities, a development Pentagon officials believe will lead to China establishing its own military presence just a few miles from the highly sensitive Camp Lemonnier complex.
China's foothold in Djibouti, moreover, has raised fears in Washington that Mr. Guelleh is turning away from his erstwhile ally in the U.S., with all the implications that could have for the future operational security of Camp Lemmonier.
Consequently, senior policymakers in Washington are now hoping to prevent Mr. Guelleh from running for a fourth term in office when the next round of presidential elections are held next year. Certainly, if China continues with its plans to establish a military presence in the Horn of Africa, the Pentagon will have to give serious consideration to relocating some of Camp Lemonnier's more sensitive operations elsewhere.
"The trade deal between Djibouti and China has raised serious concerns with regard to Camp Lemonnier," commented a senior U.S. security official. "There are now genuine concerns that if President Guelleh gets too close to China, then he may be tempted to impose restrictions on U.S. access to the base, which would seriously impact on the West's counter-terrorism operations against Islamic State and al-Qaeda."
If Mr. Guelleh continues with his confrontational approach towards Washington, then Mr. Obama is likely to come under pressure to press for political reform in Djibouti, thereby ending the president's long-running dictatorship. After all, it was only last July that Mr. Obama, in his keynote speech to the African Union, made a scathing attack on Africa's culture of presidents-for-life, urging the continent's leaders to follow the example of George Washington and Nelson Mandela by respecting term limits -- a warning is particularly pertinent so far as Mr. Guelleh is concerned.
**Con Coughlin is the Defence Editor at Daily Telegraph, London

Iranian hard-line newspaper falls out of Khamenei's favor
correspondent in Tehran/Al-Monitor/September 30, 2015
TEHRAN, Iran — During the past two decades, the Kayhan newspaper has been functioning as the unofficial tribune of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Its editor-in-chief, hard-line ideologue Hossein Shariatmadari, 68, is a major media personality. First appointed as the representative of the supreme leader at Kayhan in January 1993, he is notorious for his radical anti-Reformist stance in the late 1990s, harsh campaigning against the Green Movement in 2009 and unforgiving criticism of the nuclear negotiators since 2013.
Over the past two months, however, there have been clear indications that the supreme leader and senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials are no longer interested in seeing Shariatmadari attributing his own radical views to Khamenei.
On Sept. 1, the Office of the Supreme Leader published a statement on Khamenei’s position on Iran’s nuclear negotiations with six world powers. It said the latter was “openly and clearly” communicated in Khamenei’s meeting with students of Imam Hussein University on April 9 and further repeated in meetings with top officials during the holy month of Ramadan and subsequently on Eid al-Fitr. At the end of the statement, it was again emphasized that “anything else attributed to the supreme leader is false.”
As far as the media and public opinion in Iran are concerned, this statement was a direct answer to Shariatmadari’s Aug. 14 editorial, “The Only Option on the Table.” Shariatmadari had made references to Khamenei’s Eid al-Fitr speech in this piece and claimed, “We can confidently say that he is not at all satisfied with the text of the agreement.” Since Khamenei had not yet expressed any opinion on the July 14 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) at that time, Shariatmadari’s editorial was widely interpreted as the supreme leader’s unofficial stance.
A Reformist political journalist who works for the newspaper Mardomsalari spoke about this dynamic with Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. He said, “The political and legal importance of Shariatmadari comes from the fact that, aside from being the editor-in-chief of Kayhan, he is also the representative of [Khamenei] at Kayhan. During the past 18 years, since the victory of Mohammad Khatami in the 1997 presidential election, Shariatmadari has been known as Khamenei’s mouthpiece, meaning that he would write things in Kayhan that Khamenei himself could not say in his speeches. No one doubted Shariatmadari’s closeness to Khamenei.”
Referring to the Sept. 1 statement, the journalist added, “This was the first time that the Office of the Supreme Leader published a statement officially rejecting the claims made by Shariatmadari. I think this was a serious blow to the position of Shariatmadari and Kayhan, and was a sign of a divergence between the positions of the supreme leader and Kayhan.”
The maneuvering against Shariatmadari appears to have first begun Aug. 17, when Hamid Reza Moghadam Far, cultural-media adviser to the top commander of the IRGC, published an open letter addressed to Kayhan’s editor-in-chief in Tasnim News, which has close ties to the IRGC. In the letter, Moghadam Far explicitly stated, “I am amazed that a veteran revolutionary such as yourself is asserting and trying to convince his readership that ‘the supreme leader thinks as I do, analyzes as I do and understands as I do’!”
Moghadam Far further accused Shariatmadari of trying to instigate divergence between revolutionary forces. He also clearly specified that as far as he is concerned — and more than likely, as far as senior IRGC commanders are concerned — Shariatmadari does not speak for Khamenei. He then directly asked, “Isn’t it better to clearly declare your own position on this issue instead of pretending that you are speaking for the supreme leader?”
Shariatmadari wrote a total of seven editorials in Kayhan between July 14, when the JCPOA was struck, and Sept. 1, when the Office of the Supreme Leader issued its statement on the nuclear deal. In each of these editorials, Shariatmadari harshly criticized the text of the JCPOA and President Hassan Rouhani’s “diplomatic retreats” before the West. Since the statement came from Khamenei’s office, however, Shariatmadari has only published two editorials — with no further criticism of the JCPOA. Instead, he has only asked the conservative-dominated parliament to review the text of the nuclear deal in accordance with Khamenei’s orders.
Aside from the criticism by the Office of the Supreme Leader and the IRGC cultural-media adviser, there are other signs indicating that Kayhan is losing its long-held position as Khamenei’s tribune.
Since mid-July, a new publication called Khatt-e Hezbollah (the Path of Hezbollah) has been distributed via Khamenei’s website. The timing of this new publication’s appearance, just days after the JCPOA was struck, is intriguing. On July 20, Khamenei’s website announced, “Khatt-e Hezbollah will function as the published media for the website www.khamenei.ir in revolutionary circles, Friday prayers, religious councils and Basij compounds.” It thus appears that the intention behind the launch of Khatt-e Hezbollah as the supreme leader’s official publication is to make sure that no other outlet, including Kayhan, can claim that it is reflecting Khamenei’s views.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a Tehran-based political analyst shared his assessment of the impact of these developments and the future of Kayhan in Iran’s political structure. “Kayhan will no doubt continue to function as an important newspaper, but there will be one major modification: Kayhan has lost the magic connection it used to have with the supreme leader.” Does this then mean that Shariatmadari’s influence is waning? In the words of the analyst, “Today, Kayhan is just a normal newspaper, for it has now lost its vital link to the supreme leader.”
Death of Egyptian author who drove across Israel leaves void in Israeli-Egyptian Jacky Hugi/Al-Monitor/October 01/15
“He was the prophet of liberalism in a country that failed to respect its prophets.” That is how Thoth Wahba eulogized Ali Salem in the Egyptian daily Al-Dustour. The Egyptian satirist and columnist, who passed away at the age of 79, chose to leave this world on the eve of Yom Kippur, Sept. 22, a sacred day of fasting for Jews and the day on which Israel’s most terrible war with Egypt erupted. It is almost as if he were reminding us that on this date, God settled accounts with both Israel and Egypt. The first time was with the war they fought in 1973, and the second time was when God took his prophet of peace from their midst.Every Egyptian knew of Salem. He was a theatrical character, charmingly clumsy, who lectured his audience with a booming voice and histrionic gestures, at least in those rare moments when he managed to put down his cigarette. Hundreds of Israelis knew him as well because of his visits to their country. The first one was in 1994, when he drove to Israel in his dilapidated old car. When he returned home, he used his unique voice to describe his experiences in "My Drive to Israel," based on notes from his travels across the length and breadth of the country and his encounters with its people. Over the next two decades, Salem would not stop reminding everyone that mostly good would come of Egypt’s relationship with Israel. Knowing that people weren’t yet ready for this message, he found a way to relate it wisely and with a special charm and charisma.
“The State of Israel is not our enemy,” Salem said in an interview with ONTV three days before he died. “I’m sure that this statement contradicts everything you believe,” he told his interviewer, “but just think about it for a minute. Let’s say that they are opposed to peace and even that they are evil. Still, they’re not stupid. Israel wouldn’t want to live right next to a fanatical neighbor, torn apart inside, and ruled by gangs of bullies and the Islamic State. A strong Egypt is in Israel’s interest.”
To the many people who knew Salem — in Egypt and in Israel — he really was a prophet, the apostle of a warm peace, which remains stubbornly hesitant. What he represented was the antithesis of the doctrine put forward by former President Hosni Mubarak that dominated Egyptian-Israeli relations in the post-Anwar Sadat era. The Mubarak doctrine dictated a policy that worked to empty the relationship between Israel and Egypt of any expressions of culture, of contacts between their peoples and, in fact, of any real spirit, leaving only the necessities for survival: a stable border, closer relations with the West and a say in Palestinian issues. Anything that failed to serve these particular objectives was stymied by violent public outcries with support from the top. Joint academic programs, scientific cooperation, journalistic contacts, tourism, the exchange of athletes and cultural collaboration were all forbidden by the government in Cairo. It fought against them when they did exist, so much so that oftentimes no trace was left once they were eliminated. All of this was intended to prevent Israeli culture from penetrating the heart of the Arab world and to sustain the image of Israel as the main source of problems in the region.
Successive Israeli governments did not recognize the trap that Mubarak had set out for them and praised him to the heavens for believing that peace was a strategic option. They failed to demand more than a few crumbs from his vision of peace. Salem and a handful of other Egyptian intellectuals broke through the ban and called for a relationship based on genuine camaraderie with the enemy next door. He was thrown out of the Writers’ Union for it, publicly castigated and faced threats to his life serious enough that he was forced to hire a bodyguard. The press called him a traitor, while the regime looked on in silence.
It was only after Salem died, many years after his trip to Israel and with Mubarak deposed, that Egyptian columnists demanded that the persecuted artist receive his due. “We would be short-changing Ali Salem to accuse him of collaborating with evil, when the real evil is among us, and we are doing nothing to deal with it,” wrote Amr El-Zant. Abd el-Monem Said, a journalist, researcher and former chair of Al-Ahram's Board of Directors, called Salem a “philosopher” and said, “His position exposed the meager tolerance that exists among us toward other opinions, and truth be told, the political hypocrisy prevailed to such an extent that it pushed him to the margins of the cultural scene, even though his work should have been placed at its center.” Gamal Abu el-Hassan wrote, “His trip to Israel in the mid-1990s may have been the most important thing he did in his career. It was a fitting act for an intellectual, searching for the naked truth.”
Salem was born in the Damietta governorate in 1936. His father was a policeman. When Salem was just 12, his brother died fighting in the battle over British Palestine. Salem’s first satirical theater piece premiered when he was just 24. After that, he wrote 26 more plays. He also produced 15 collections of satirical stories, as well as political articles in Asharq al-Awsat and other Egyptian dailies.
“He was a man of broad horizons, larger than life and yet delicate as well,” said Foreign Ministry staffer Ayellet Yehiav, an expert on the Middle East specializing in Egypt and a former spokesperson for the Israeli Embassy in Cairo. “He was a model of courage and of curiosity about the other. He was a man who dared to swim against the stream. Unlike his detractors and boycotters who claimed that peace only served Israel while wreaking ruin on their own country, he believed that peace really did serve Egypt.”
Yossi Amitai, a Middle East scholar who formerly headed the Israeli Academic Institute in Cairo, recalled a conference that took place in the Ibn Khaldun Research Center. He had been asked to address a free-thinking audience with a decidedly liberal bent. “In my speech, I called on the Egyptian left to conduct a ‘selective dialogue’ with opponents of the occupation in Israel. Ali got out of his seat and started scolding me: ‘Why a selective dialogue? And why limit it to opponents of the occupation in Israel? Dialogue can’t be selective. It must include all people and factions that are prepared to engage in an open exchange of ideas, including supporters of the occupation.’”
Professor Gabriel M. Rosenbaum noted that Salem was one of the leaders of the younger generation of Egyptian satirists toward the end of Gamal Abdel Nasser’s presidency. Rosenbaum, a researcher of Egyptian culture and literature, was a close friend of Salem’s. He now serves as director of the Israeli Academic Institute in Cairo. Seventeen years ago, Rosenbaum translated one of Salem’s most successful works, "The Oedipus Comedy: You Are the One Who Killed the Monster," into Hebrew. According to him, Salem was a true patriot. “There are a lot of people in Cairo who think the same way he did about Egypt’s relationship with Israel, but finding even one person who will support that position openly, without fearing the consequences, is rare indeed,” said Rosenbaum.
Articles in the Egyptian press eulogizing Salem are fascinating documents in their own right. In Salem’s heyday, the press crucified him; now they are crucifying the people who crucified him. Nevertheless, it must not be forgotten that the nature of the relationship between Cairo and Jerusalem is still determined by bureaucrats on both sides. Whenever you hear an Israeli military official or diplomat boasting that the relationship between Cairo and Jerusalem has gotten even closer over the past few years, you can be certain that they are not referring to any relationship between the two peoples. God forbid. What they mean is that military, intelligence or diplomatic relations between the two countries are warmer than ever.
If the Egyptian-Israeli peace were deep-rooted, and not just a convenient alliance of common interests, Salem’s passing would not have created such a gaping hole. The empty space he leaves behind would be filled by other cherished talents, the inevitable legacy of real peace. It would be teeming with various personalities, joint cultural initiatives and close ties. It would be saturated with a sense of brotherhood between the two peoples. While Salem and his partners do have some young, knowledgeable heirs who are motivated to bring about the right kind of peace, there are still too few of them. In fact, they are fewer than the fingers on a single hand.

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006 Click Here to go to the LCCC Daily English/Arabic News Buletins Archieves Since 2006

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
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