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Bible Quotation For Today/‘Blessed are you who are poor, for yours is the kingdom of God.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 06/20-26: "Jesus looked up at his disciples and said: ‘Blessed are you who are poor, for yours is the kingdom of God. ‘Blessed are you who are hungry now, for you will be filled. ‘Blessed are you who weep now, for you will laugh. ‘Blessed are you when people hate you, and when they exclude you, revile you, and defame you on account of the Son of Man. Rejoice on that day and leap for joy, for surely your reward is great in heaven; for that is what their ancestors did to the prophets. ‘But woe to you who are rich, for you have received your consolation. ‘Woe to you who are full now, for you will be hungry. ‘Woe to you who are laughing now, for you will mourn and weep. ‘Woe to you when all speak well of you, for that is what their ancestors did to the false prophets."

Bible Quotation For Today/‘You must prophesy again about many peoples and nations and languages and kings.’
Book of Revelation 10/01-11: "I saw another mighty angel coming down from heaven, wrapped in a cloud, with a rainbow over his head; his face was like the sun, and his legs like pillars of fire. He held a little scroll open in his hand. Setting his right foot on the sea and his left foot on the land, he gave a great shout, like a lion roaring. And when he shouted, the seven thunders sounded. And when the seven thunders had sounded, I was about to write, but I heard a voice from heaven saying, ‘Seal up what the seven thunders have said, and do not write it down.’Then the angel whom I saw standing on the sea and the land raised his right hand to heaven and swore by him who lives for ever and ever, who created heaven and what is in it, the earth and what is in it, and the sea and what is in it: ‘There will be no more delay, but in the days when the seventh angel is to blow his trumpet, the mystery of God will be fulfilled, as he announced to his servants the prophets.’ Then the voice that I had heard from heaven spoke to me again, saying, ‘Go, take the scroll that is open in the hand of the angel who is standing on the sea and on the land.’So I went to the angel and told him to give me the little scroll; and he said to me, ‘Take it, and eat; it will be bitter to your stomach, but sweet as honey in your mouth.’So I took the little scroll from the hand of the angel and ate it; it was sweet as honey in my mouth, but when I had eaten it, my stomach was made bitter. Then they said to me, ‘You must prophesy again about many peoples and nations and languages and kings.’

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 06-07/15
The Politics of Lies/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/October 06/15
Russia's Syria Move Is a Mixed Blessing for Iran/Olivier Decottignies/Washington Institute/October 06/15
Best Bad Idea for America in Syria/Andrew J. Tabler/CNN/October 6, 2015
Turkey Is in Serious Trouble/Soner Cagaptay/The Atlantic/October 6, 2015
Syria, Russia and the Arabs: Could it get any worse/Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/October 06/15
Panorama: Russian violation of Turkish airspace and situation in Syria/Dr. Theodore Karasik/Al Arabiya/October 06/15
Are we on the brink of a religious war in Jerusalem/Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/October 06/15
A Russian journalist’s email about Syria/Diana Moukalled/Al Arabiya/October 06/15

Activists take to the streets amid national dialogue
Now Lebanon/October 06/15/BEIRUT –Civil society activists have rallied against the arrest of a top #YouStink organizer as Lebanon's leaders met once again for a national dialogue session aimed at breaking the political impasse gripping the country. Shortly before 3 p.m. Tuesday, a few dozen protesters blocked the road leading to Beirut’s Hamra district following the arrest of Assaad Thebian, one of the top organizers in the #YouStink grassroots movement protesting the government’s handling of Lebanon’s worsening garbage crisis as well as systemic corruption. #YouStink decried the “kidnapping” of Thebian—in reference to his detention—which came after the activists held an impromptu march from a Finance Ministry annex building in central Beirut toward the Central Bank, where they called for funds to be released to municipalities to handle waste management. The protesters reopened the road after half an hour and then marched toward the nearby Interior Ministry to rally against Thebian’s arrest, while the Internal Security Forces announced the activist had been detained for “defiling the Lebanese flag.”#YouStink activists outside the Interior Ministry proceeded to block the road as they had done at the Central Bank, where Thebian had been detained. Security forces had roughly bundled Thebian into a vehicle before speeding away from the rest of the protesters, who attempted to give chase. The activist had earlier painted protest slogans on a wall bearing the colors of the Lebanese flag. Shorly after 5 p.m., Thebian had been released from his brief detention, prompting activists to open the road in front of the Interior Ministry. Just as #YouStink held its protest march, relatives of Lebanese servicemen kidnapped in a 2014 cross-border Syrian Islamist raid on Arsal held their own street action along the coastal Raouche road in west Beirut. The aggrieved family members—who have repeatedly called for government action to secure the release of their relatives—cut the road from noon to 3 p.m., after which they rallied outside Speaker Nabih Berri’s residence in the nearby Ain al-Tineh quarter of the capital. Tuesday’s protests—the latest to rock Beirut—came as Lebanon’s leaders met for the fourth session of a national dialogue session in the Parliament in Downtown Beirut. Amid a heavy security presence, leaders of all the country’s parties, except the Lebanese Forces, gathered in yet another attempt to hammer out a political understanding to elect a new president—a post vacant since Michel Suleiman’s term ended in May 2014—and find a mechanism to get Lebanon’s paralyzed cabinet to meet effectively again. However, Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun walked out of the session a little over an hour after its start, and has since to return. The Christian political figure has previously threatened to boycott the sessions if they do yield a productive result, while his party plans to hold its own mass rally outside the Presidential Palace in Baabda on October 11. The cabinet last met on September 9 to agree on a waste management plan after trash built up on the streets of Beirut and surrounding areas of Mount Lebanon following the closure of the Naameh landfill on July 17. The government’s failure to initially address the trash crisis in the mid-summer sparked a growing protest movement that has seen civil society groups call for the resignation of Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk after security forces responded to a series of gatherings in a heavy-handed manner. Protesters last held a mass-rally in Downtown Beirut on September 25, while Lebanon’s government has yet to enact its own trash plan.

U.N. Asks Iran to Help Fill Baabda Vacuum
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 06/15/United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon has urged Iran to help swiftly resolve the presidential deadlock in Lebanon. During a meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, Ban "underscored the need for Lebanon's presidential vacuum to be filled as quickly as possible," his office said on Monday.Baabda Palace has been vacant since the term of President Michel Suleiman ended in May last year. Ban also urged Zarif to pressure its ally Syria to reach a peaceful resolution of the brutal civil war there. Ban "reiterated that there is no military solution to the conflict and asked Iran to exercise its influence in promoting a political solution," according to a statement from his office. The two leaders also discussed Yemen, where the U.N. is trying to revive peace talks and where Iran plays a key role through its support of Huthi rebels, who are Shiite. Ban also called on all parties to implement "in good faith" the nuclear agreement Iran signed with major powers in July. U.N. Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson is due to visit Tehran on Sunday as part of a regional tour to discuss the humanitarian impact of conflicts in Syria and Yemen, according to spokesman Stephane Dujarric. Eliasson will leave for Riyadh on Tuesday before heading to Abu Dhabi on Friday, Tehran on October 11, and Istanbul on October 13 for a meeting on the refugee crisis. He will then head to Geneva on October 14 for talks ahead of a humanitarian summit set to take place in Turkey in May 2016. Lebanon hosts around 1.5 million Syrian refugees.

Rivals Hold Meeting after Dialogue Session as Franjieh Says 'Optimistic' on Promotions
Naharnet/October 06/15/The heads of the parliamentary blocs kicked off three days of national dialogue on Tuesday with talks over the country's various political and social crises, as one of them voiced “optimism” about the possibility of reaching a deal on the thorny issue of military promotions.
“I'm now more optimistic about the possibility of reaching a solution to the promotions crisis,” said Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh as he left the dialogue session that was held in the evening. State-run National News Agency said the dialogue session was followed by a side meeting between Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minister Tammam Salam, al-Mustaqbal bloc chief MP Fouad Saniora, Change and Reform bloc secretary MP Ibrahim Kanaan, and the ministers Butros Harb and Michel Pharaon.
LBCI television said the meeting tackled the issue of military promotions.
“Tomorrow's dialogue session will be dedicated to the discussion of the characteristics of the new president,” said Harb after the meeting. Earlier in the day, Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel said there is an inclination to press on with the emergency waste management plan proposed by Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb and a team of experts. Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun attended the morning dialogue session but skipped the evening one over unclear reasons. Some media reports said Aoun missed the session due to “health reasons” as others mentioned political dismay. Change and Reform sources had told al-Akhbar newspaper that their opponents are preventing Aoun from making any gains. Tuesday's “session could be the last if there was no clear answer on the settlement” reached between Aoun and several officials on the promotion of military officers, they said. Speaker Berri has set three days of sessions starting Tuesday. The meeting was preceded by a closed-door meeting between the FPM chief and the speaker during which the two officials discussed a possible political settlement and the promotion of three generals. Berri is working on the promotions file with Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblat, while an agreement on the issue was reached on Monday between Hizbullah and the Mustaqbal Movement. Aoun did not attend the evening dialogue session due to health reasons and not because of any political debate or dispute, MTV reported. He was represented by Kanaan in the meeting. LBCI earlier said that Aoun rejects any settlement if the Consultative Gathering and Kataeb party keep opposing it. Last week, Aoun threatened to boycott the national dialogue chaired by Berri following reports that the deal included the appointment of an Internal Security Forces chief. Despite efforts exerted by several officials to appease Aoun by denying such reports, the cabinet has not yet met to approve the promotion of three senior army officers, among them Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz, to the rank of major general.Roukoz is the son-in-law of Aoun who wants to keep him in the military institution so that he reaches the post of the army leadership. The promotion of the officer, who is set to retire on October 15, is rejected by several factions represented in the cabinet. But Social Affairs Minister Rashid Derbas said that if a large number of ministers approved Roukoz' promotion, then the decision would be considered legal. Asked by al-Akhbar about hints made by Kataeb party ministers that they would resign in case of a promotion, Derbas said: “This government is formed in a very sensitive way.” “It will fracture if we remove a single stone from it. We can't let go of any minister,” he added. Derbas also told Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) that a simple majority is enough to promote the military officers. “Even if I were against the promotion, I will have to accept it,” he said.

Heavy Arms' Fired at Baalbek over Sunday Deadly Shooting
Naharnet/October 06/15/Unknown gunmen fired heavy- and medium-caliber weapons Tuesday from the Ras al-Ain area towards Baalbek in connection with Sunday's deadly shooting in the northeastern city, state-run National News Agency reported. The shelling was targeted at “the house of the father of Nader Yaghi,” where the latter's funeral was being held after he was killed in Sunday's incident. “Lebanese army troops intervened immediately and started pursuing the shooters,” NNA said. Yaghi and Hussein Tlais were shot dead Sunday as a personal dispute escalated into gunfire in a Baalbek market. “As Tlais was leaving al-Jana jewelery store which he owns in Baalbek's Serail Street, he was shot at the hands of A. N. Z.,” NNA said on Sunday. Yaghi was “passing in the area” at the time of the shooting, the agency added.

Syria Reportedly Ready to Help with Waste Crisis as Shehayyeb Says Akkar Landfill Almost Complete
Naharnet/October 06/15/Lebanese personalities have contacted Syrian authorities to ask for help to resolve Lebanon's waste management crisis, al-Joumhouria newspaper reported on Tuesday. The daily said that Damascus has approved to treat the garbage in its territories or transfer it to Iraq, which has also expressed readiness to accept part of the waste. According to al-Joumhouria, Syria's acceptance stems from the large number of Syrian refugees that are residing in Lebanon.However, it said that the contacts made by the Lebanese personalities through unofficial channels are yet at their beginning. The initiative would be considered as an option if Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb's waste management plan hit a dead end, added the report. The plan was approved by the cabinet last month. It calls for transporting trash to different landfills around the country for the next 18 months and the reopening of the Naameh landfill for seven days only to treat the accumulated waste. But so far, only the Srar landfill in the northern district of Akkar seems to be on track of being opened. Shehayyeb held talks with Prime Minister Tammam Salam at the Grand Serail on Tuesday. He confirmed that the work on setting up the Srar landfill is almost completed. Local officials in the other areas have not been enthusiastic about having landfills on their territories including one on the eastern mountain range. But Shehayyeb said the authorities are studying another location in the east and that he would not give further details before it is set up in the right manner.

Jumblat: I Have no Problem to Elect Aoun for Presidency
Naharnet/October 06/15/Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat stated on Tuesday that he has no trouble to elect head of the Change and Reform bloc MP Michel Aoun as president. “I have no problem to elect Aoun as president for the Republic as it will change nothing of Lebanon’s difficulties,” said Jumblat in an interview to the As Safir daily. “I have suggested before that electing Aoun will change nothing in the depth of Lebanon's problems because the jurisdictions of the president no matter what they are have become limited now. It is enough that he is committed to sign a decree within a specified period of time while a minister can put it in the drawer,” added Jumblat. Pointing to the difficulties facing the election of a head of state, the PSP leader pointed out: “The matter is delicate because the Sunni community in general does not accept to have Aoun as president just like the Shiite community refuses to have Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea.” He urged the election of a “popular” president who “expresses the will of his community and at the same time is accepted by the other factions.”Lebanon has been without a president since May last year when the term of Michel Suleiman ended with MPs unable to find a successor. Sharp differences between the March 8 and 14 alliances left Baabda Palace vacant over their inability to agree on a consensual candidate. Aoun is the March 8's candidate and Geagea's candidacy is endorsed by the March 14 coalition.

Hizbullah, Mustaqbal Hold onto National Dialogue, Reactivation of Institutions
Naharnet/October 06/15/Hizbullah and al-Mustaqbal movement officials stressed late Monday the importance of the national dialogue and ways to reactivate state institutions. In their 19th round of talks held in Ain el-Tineh, the conferees issued a terse statement saying they discussed Lebanon's political crisis. They “stressed the importance of the national dialogue and its positive effect on the situation.”The conferees also “stressed (the importance) of finding the appropriate ways to reactivate constitutional institutions as soon as possible.”The meeting was attended by the Hizbullah leader's political assistant, Hajj Hussein Khalil, Minister Hussein al-Hajj Hassan and MP Hassan Fadlallah. The Mustaqbal representatives were Nader Hariri, Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq and MP Samir al-Jisr.Minister Ali Hassan Khalil represented Speaker Nabih Berri in the dialogue session. The meeting had been scheduled to take place on Tuesday but was held on Monday instead to avert a showdown between Hizbullah and Mustaqbal representatives in the national dialogue chaired by Berri at the parliament.
The two parties' officials had been lately exchanging accusations on controversial issues.

You Stink' Campaign Stages Protest near Central Bank as Activist Briefly Detained
Naharnet/October 06/15/The “You Stink” civil society campaign staged a march from downtown Beirut to the Central Bank in protest against corruption in Lebanon. The protesters made their way from a Finance Ministry building in downtown and later arrived at the Central Bank in the Hamra neighborhood.Soon after their arrival, activist Asaad Zebian was arrested with a member of the campaign accusing the security forces of “militia practices.” The demonstrators promptly blocked the road in front of the Central Bank in protest against the detention, said some media outlets.
An activist later denied the claim, saying that cars are being allowed to pass. The Internal Security Forces later revealed that Zebian was arrested for defiling the Lebanese flag. The walls surrounding the Interior Ministry, which is located in front of the Central Bank, are painted with the Lebanese flag.
Photographs show Zebian painting over the flag. The protesters later headed towards the Interior Ministry's main entrance at Sanayeh to stage a sit-in. Zebian was released from custody in the afternoon and the activists ended their sit-in. The “You Stink” campaign gained prominence in the wake of the eruption of the garbage disposal crisis. It carried out numerous protests against the problem and later evolved into a movement protesting against political corruption on Lebanon.

Families of Hostages Block Raouche Road, Call for 'Mercy'
Naharnet/October 06/15/The relatives of the servicemen taken hostage by the Islamic State extremist group and al-Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front blocked the road in Beirut's Raouche area on Tuesday to protest the authorities' failure to release their loved ones. “Our moves are escalatory and we don't mind heading to any location to put the spotlight on the file,” said one of the protesters. They spray-painted the road, asking for the return of the captives. “Have mercy on us,” one woman shouted. “The state should feel our pain.” “It's been four to five months that no official has met us,” said another protester. “Let Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim hold talks with us.”Ibrahim, who heads the General Security Department, is Lebanon's official negotiator. But his efforts, in addition to a Qatari mediation, have not yet yielded results. The protest caused heavy traffic in the area, forcing police to divert vehicles to nearby roads. But after vowing to stay there for three hours, the relatives decided to move to another undisclosed location to hold a second protest. On Sunday, the families blocked the Banks Street near downtown Beirut's Riad al-Solh square protesting the delay in the efforts to free their sons. They later headed to the airport road and briefly blocked it on both ways with burning tires. The relatives had a day earlier warned that they will take escalatory measures to pressure the authorities into bringing the captives back home. They accused the authorities of neglecting the cause of the soldiers and policemen who were taken hostage by the jihadists when they overran the northeastern border town of Arsal in August 2014.

Hezbollah massing for Quneitra counteroffensive
Now Lebanon/October 6/15
BEIRUT – Hezbollah and the Syrian regime have been mustering their fighters for a counteroffensive in northern Quneitra following recent rebel gains in the province bordering Israel, according to a pro-rebel outlet. “A number of regime forces officers and commanders in the Hezbollah militia are meeting in the headquarters of Quneitra’s 90th Brigade base,” a source told All4Syria in an article published Tuesday after rebels made recent advances near the strategic installation. “[They are] discussing a military plan to launch a battle against the rebels [and] recapture villages and towns in Quneitra that have fallen in to the hands of rebel battalions,” the source added. According to the source, the regime has summoned a large numbers of troops as well as dozens of soldiers from the 90th Brigade base, with supportfrom members of Lebanon’s Hezbollah. “Over 40 vehicles bearing Hezbollah flags have arrived at the base, and most of them are there for the launch of the battle which is expected to begin tomorrow.”The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, in turn, reported Tuesday mid-morning that fierce clashes pitting regime forces and allied militants against Islamist factions and the Al-Nusra Front were continuing in northern Quneitra amid renewed shelling by regime forces on the combat zones. According to the report, regime artillery fire has caused the death of an Islamist fighter, while shelling by the Islamist factions on the regime-held towns of Khan Arnabeh and Al-Baath has killed a civilian.
Rebel advances
Since the launch of the And Give Good Tidings to the Patient battle on September 25, allied rebel factions have notched a series of advances in their campaign to open a supply route through Syria’s Quneitra province to Damascus’s western Ghouta area. By September 30, allied rebel brigades had taken control of the Amal Farms checkpoint and the Trinjeh Company military base in what they said was the battle’s first phase. On August 4, rebels seized the strategic Tel Ahmar hilltop, which is located near the 90th Brigade base. “During the first hours after the rebels launched the second phase of the And Give Good Tidings to the Patient battle in the southern region the factions were able to take control of Tel Ahmar,” the anti-Damascus Orient TV announced late on Sunday. “They are now on the outskirts of the 90th Brigade base,” the outlet added, citing a rebel fighter as saying the installation was three kilometers from Syria’s Golan demarcation line with Israel. In turn, state controlled Syrian newspaper Al-Watan said that the rebels were preparing for a new attack after having taken Tel Ahmar with help from Israel. The Army of Islam, along with several other factions (Yarmouk Army - Ansar al-Islam - Syria Revolutionaries Front - Liwaa Omar - Liwaa al-Izz - Al-Furqan Brigades) formally announced the beginning of the And Give Good Tidings to the Patient Battle on September 26, a day after the offensive began.
Strategic importance of Tel Ahmar
The spokesperson for the Saif al-Sham Brigades, another rebel group fighting in the area, told Qatari-owned Alaraby Aljadeed that the capture of Tel Ahmar was important for several reasons. “The importance of controlling Tel Ahmar lies in the besiegement of the Quneitra town of Al-Baath, prevention of movement by regime forces inside the town and prevention of supplies reaching them,” Abu Ghaith al-Shami said. “Additionally, defense has been secured for the liberated Trinjeh Company base and Amal Farms which we took control of.”Tel Ahmar “was a base containing regime artillery and tanks that were shelling liberated villages in Quneitra and our positions in the battle,” he explained. Rebel offensives aiming to link Quneitra with Damascus’s western Ghouta area were launched as early as June, but as Alaraby Aljadeed’s report pointed out “as soon as the confrontations achieved a tangible advance they dropped off somewhat.” According to the daily, this was due to “the strength of regime fortifications and firepower in those areas, not to mention its intensified use of the air force.”

Turkey Says Russian Envoy Summoned over New Air Space Violation
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 06/15/Turkey summoned the Russian ambassador to Ankara for a second time after a new violation of its air space by a Russian warplane close to the Syrian border, a Turkish foreign ministry official said on Tuesday. "The Russian envoy was summoned for a second time yesterday (Monday) afternoon to strongly protest another violation of Turkish air space on Sunday," the official told Agence France Presse on condition of anonymity. Turkey warned the Russian envoy that similar incidents should not happen again otherwise "Russia would be held responsible," the official said. The violation on Sunday appears to have been the second in as many days after Turkey said its fighter jets intercepted a Russian warplane close to the Syrian border on Saturday, forcing it to turn back. The Russian ambassador had also been summoned following Saturday's incident. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Monday warned that Ankara would activate military "rules of engagement" irrespective of who violates its airspace. "Even if it is a flying bird it will be intercepted," Davutoglu said in an interview with Turkish television. The Turkish military said on Monday that two Turkish F-16 jets were harassed by an unidentified MIG-29 aircraft on the Syrian border on Sunday. "Two F-16 jets were harassed by a MIG-29 plane -- whose nationality could not be identified -- for a total of five minutes and 40 seconds," the army said in a statement. It was not immediately clear if the incidents on Sunday referred to by the army and the foreign ministry were the same episode or separate. Russian warplanes have been flying over Syrian territory since Wednesday, conducting air strikes on what Moscow says are targets belonging to Islamic State (IS) group jihadists and other "terrorist" groups in the country's northern and central provinces. The West has accused Moscow of using the raids as cover to hit President Bashar al-Assad's moderate opponents. Turkey and Russia remain on opposing sides of the Syrian conflict, with Moscow one of the few allies of Assad while Ankara says his ouster is the only way out of the current stalemate. Ankara and Moscow enjoy burgeoning trade ties and had until recent months appeared intent on building a strong strategic alliance.After an emergency meeting on Monday, NATO called on Russia to "immediately cease its attacks on the Syrian opposition and civilians" and also warned against violating Turkey's airspace. The military alliance said in a statement that the allies "note the extreme danger of such irresponsible behaviour." U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned Monday that a Russian "incursion" into the air space of Washington's NATO ally Turkey risked provoking a serious escalation. "It is precisely the kind of thing that had Turkey responded under its rights could have resulted in a shoot-down," he said, at a public event in Chile.

Abbas Says Does Not Want 'Escalation' as Israel Demolishes Militants Homes
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 06/15/Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas said Tuesday he wanted to avoid a violent escalation with Israel, his most direct comments since unrest has spread in recent days and provoked fears of a new uprising. His comments came as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged a crackdown and Israel, in a show of force, demolished the homes of two Palestinians who carried out attacks last year. More clashes also erupted Tuesday, including in Bethlehem following the funeral of a 13-year-old killed by Israeli soldiers during rioting outside the city. "We don't want a military and security escalation with Israel," Abbas said at a meeting of Palestinian officials, according to official news agency Wafa. "We are telling our security forces, our political movements, that we do not want an escalation, but that we want to protect ourselves."Abbas' intentions were unclear before his recent comments, particularly following his U.N. General Assembly speech last week, in which he declared he was no longer bound by accords with Israel. But the question remains of whether Palestinian youths frustrated with both Abbas' leadership and Israel's right-wing government will listen to his appeals. Tuesday's demolitions came with Netanyahu under increasing pressure from right-wing members of his coalition, which holds only a one-seat parliamentary majority, as clashes have spread following the murder of four Israelis. The spike in violence has brought international calls for calm, with concerns the unrest could spin out of control and memories of previous Palestinian uprisings still fresh. The houses destroyed were the former homes of Ghassan Abu Jamal and Mohammed Jaabis, the military said. They were placed under demolition orders after the men attacked Israelis last year. Armed with meat cleavers and a pistol, Abu Jamal and his cousin Uday Abu Jamal killed four rabbis and a policeman before being shot dead in November 2014. Jaabis rammed an earthmover into a bus in August 2014, killing an Israeli and wounding several others before he was shot dead by police. An AFP journalist saw the gutted inside of a house in east Jerusalem that witnesses said was the former residence of Abu Jamal. Yasser Abdu, 40, a neighbor and friend of the Abu Jamals, accused Israel of a "policy of collective punishment."The demolition explosion, which took place before dawn, blew out the interior of the structure but the supporting pillars remained intact, an AFP journalist said. The blast damaged other apartments in the building as well as surrounding tructures.Eyewitnesses said police and other authorities arrived at midnight, locking down the area before drilling and planting the explosives. A room was also sealed off at the former home of Muataz Hijazi, who in October 2014 tried to gun down a right-wing Jewish activist, critically wounding him. Hijazi was shot dead the next morning during a police raid.
Intifada' memories fresh
The demolitions had been challenged in Israel's top court, which ultimately approved them. The court also approved sealing the room but not demolishing the structure, as Hijazi's attack "did not ultimately result in the loss of human life." The punitive measures come after clashes have spread in east Jerusalem and the West Bank in recent days following the murders of four Israelis, including a Jewish settler couple shot in front of their children. Israeli security forces said five men they had arrested over the couple's murder were members of militant group Hamas. Netanyahu visited the site of the murders Tuesday. On Monday, Israeli troops shot dead the 13-year-old Palestinian -- the second killing of a Palestinian in 24 hours -- as dozens were wounded in fresh clashes. Netanyahu has announced a series of new security measures. "We are not prepared to give immunity to anybody, not to any rioter... or any terrorist, anywhere, and therefore there are no limits on the activities of the security forces," Netanyahu said ahead of a special session of his security cabinet Monday night. Also on Monday, thousands turned out in Jerusalem for a rally outside the prime minister's residence organized by Jewish settlers urging Netanyahu to come down hard on militants and boost settlement building. Israel lifted rare restrictions Tuesday barring Palestinians from Jerusalem's Old City, with only residents, business owners and students allowed in the previous two days. The restrictions had been imposed after two Israelis were stabbed to death there and as Jews wrapped up celebrations of their Sukkot holiday, which ended Monday night.Worship at the sensitive al-Aqsa mosque compound will continue to be limited to men aged 50 and above. There is no age limit for women. Around 300,000 Palestinians live in Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem, where the Old City is located.

IS Claims Deadly Attacks on Yemen Govt., Arab Troops in Aden
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 06/15/The Islamic State group claimed responsibility for deadly attacks Tuesday on the government headquarters and positions of the Saudi-led coalition in the Yemeni city of Aden. In a statement posted online, the Sunni extremist group said it carried out four suicide bombings against the targets, contradicting accounts from officials that the attacks involved rockets fired by Iran-backed Shiite rebels. IS said two attacks targeting the government headquarters at al-Qasr hotel were carried out using bomb-laden vehicles driven by members it identified as Abu Saad al-Adani and Abu Mohammed al-Sahli. The jihadist group, which controls large parts of Iraq and Syria and has affiliates elsewhere in the region, said soldiers were killed in these attacks, without specifying how many. Prime Minister Khaled Bahah, who escaped the attack on the al-Qasr, wrote on his Facebook page that two rockets had hit the hotel while other rockets fell elsewhere. IS said a third suicide bomber, Aws al-Adani, drove a bomb-laden armored vehicle into a "central operations headquarters of Saudi and Emirati forces, killing dozens." Meanwhile, Abu Hamza al-Sanaani blew up a UAE-held military position using another armored vehicle, the group said. The Emirati WAM news agency has reported that the attacks were carried out by the Iran-backed Huthi rebels and their allies. The rebels "targeted the government headquarters and several military positions (and) left 15 Arab coalition and Yemeni resistance martyrs," said WAM. The news agency said four Emirati soldiers were among the coalition forces that were killed and that several others were wounded. The coalition said, in a statement published on the Saudi SPA news agency, that the attacks killed three Emiratis and one Saudi soldier. It said Katyusha rockets had been used, and that coalition forces "responded to the source of fire and destroyed the vehicles" used to launch the assaults. There was no immediate comment from the coalition on the IS claim. Tuesday's claim is the first from IS for an attack against the Saudi-led coalition that has been bombing Iran-backed Shiite rebels since March. Previously it only claimed attacks against Shiite mosques in Yemen.The UAE and Saudi Arabia are among other Arab states taking part in a U.S.-led coalition pounding IS in Syria and Iraq. On September 4, a rebel missile attack in the eastern Yemeni province of Marib killed 67 coalition troops, including 52 Emirati soldiers.

Rights Groups Urge Syria to Free Lawyer Khalil Maatuq
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 06/15/Rights groups including Amnesty International urged Syrian authorities Tuesday to release human rights lawyer Khalil Maatuq and his assistant, three years after their arrest. Maatuq and his friend and colleague Mohammed Zaza were detained on October 2, 2012 at a government checkpoint. Authorities initially denied the arrests, but released prisoners have told Maatuq's family the lawyer has been held at various detention facilities. Maatuq and Zaza both worked at the Syrian Center for Legal Research and Studies, and rights groups believe they were arrested because of their work defending detainees. Amnesty and 52 other rights groups from Syria, the region and beyond urged Damascus to release Maatuq and Zaza "immediately and unconditionally." They noted that Maatuq suffers from advanced lung disease, adding that "his life may be at risk as he needs medication and medical attention." "The Syrian authorities must heed these calls without further delay and release immediately and unconditionally Khalil Maatuq and Mohammed Zaza as well as all others detained solely for the peaceful exercise of their human rights," the group said. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitor, some 200,000 people are being held by the government in detention centers, prisons and security facilities. Nearly 13,000 Syrians, including dozens of children, have been tortured to death in government prison since an uprising against President Bashar Assad began in March 2011, the Observatory said.

More than 114,000 Flee Yemen War, Says U.N.
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 06/15/More than 114,000 people have fled war-torn Yemen, and the figure could reach at least 200,000 by the end of 2016, aid officials said Tuesday. Fighting escalated in March when Saudi-led airstrikes began targeting Yemen's Huthi rebels to defend embattled President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi. Close to 70,000 people fleeing the crisis have arrived in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan," the U.N. refugee agency (UNHCR) and International Organization for Migration (IOM) said in a statement. "Up to 44,080 people are reported to have arrived in Saudi Arabia and Oman." The IOM said the number of people fleeing Yemen to neighboring nations could rise to over 200,000 by the end of next year. "Refugees and migrants arrive after many hours at sea often traumatized and exhausted, with few personal belongings, and in urgent need of food, water and emergency healthcare," top IOM official Ashraf El Nour said, at a meeting in the Kenyan capital to coordinate the response to the crisis. "The most pressing response therefore is to address their basic needs, and to register and provide documentation to enable access to essential services."The U.N. says the Yemeni conflict has killed about 5,000 people and wounded 25,000, among them many civilians. Tens of thousands of Somali refugees have also fled back home from Yemen, adding to three million already in need in the Horn of Africa nation. Most of the Somali refugees, who originally fled hunger and conflict in Somalia before being caught up in war in Yemen, have crossed the Gulf of Aden by boat to the Horn of Africa country's northern Somaliland and Puntland regions.

Russian Military Denies Strikes on Syrian City of Palmyra
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/06 October/15/Russia's defense ministry on Tuesday dismissed as "absolute lies" claims that its jets had bombed the Syrian city of Palmyra after Syrian state TV reported the strikes. "All reports by foreign media that Russian planes have allegedly conducted air strikes against the city of Palmyra are absolute lies," ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said, Russian news wires reported. "Our aviation in Syria does not attack residential areas nor -- especially not -- the architectural monuments there," he said. Syrian state television reported Tuesday that Russian warplanes bombed targets in and around the Syrian city of Palmyra in Moscow's first strikes against the Islamic State group-controlled area. The state broadcaster cited a military source as saying that the Russian air force in coordination with Syrian air force had struck IS targets "in and around" the city. It said the strikes had destroyed "20 armored vehicles, three ammunition warehouses and three rocket launchers." he Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitor, said the Palmyra strikes were launched overnight and killed at least 15 IS fighters and injured dozens more.IS seized control of Palmyra in May and has realized international fears by destroying some of the most prized sites in the UNESCO World Heritage listed ancient city. Russia last week launched air strikes in Syria at the request of its long-standing ally President Bashar Assad. Moscow insists it is going after IS targets in the war-torn country but the U.S. and its allies fears the aim of the intervention is to bolster the Syrian government.

Russian Military Officials Visit Israel for Syria Talks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/06 October/15/Russian military officials were to hold talks with their Israeli counterparts in Tel Aviv on Tuesday after the countries' leaders agreed to establish a mechanism to avoid accidental clashes in Syria. Israel's military confirmed the two-day meeting on "regional coordination," which comes after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks last month related to Syria. The two agreed on a mechanism to avoid "misunderstandings" and clashes in Syrian airspace between the two militaries' jets. Tuesday's talks were to include Russian Deputy Chief of Staff Nikolai Bogdanovsky and his Israeli counterpart Yair Golan. Israeli military officials reportedly fear that Russian air strikes could cut their room for maneuver in Syria. Several purported strikes on Iranian arms transfers to Hizbullah through Syria have occurred in recent months that were not officially acknowledged by Israeli authorities.Moscow informed Israel it was about to launch air strikes in Syria before its attacks last week, the first by Russian warplanes in the years-old conflict. Russian warplanes have been flying over Syrian territory since Wednesday, conducting air strikes on what Moscow says are targets belonging to Islamic State group jihadists in the country's northern and central provinces. The West has accused Moscow of using the raids as cover to hit moderate opponents of Russian ally Syrian President Bashar Assad. Israel opposes Assad, but has sought to avoid being dragged into the war in neighboring Syria. It also fears that Iran could increase its support for Hizbullah and other militant groups as international sanctions are gradually lifted under a July nuclear deal that Moscow helped negotiate between Tehran and world powers. Netanyahu has said he is determined to stop arms deliveries to Lebanon's Hizbullah and accused Syria's army and Iran of trying to create a "second front" against Israel.

Canadian Statement On Mohamed Fahmy's Departure from Egypt
Statement by Minister of State Yelich on Mohamed Fahmy’s Departure from Egypt
October 6, 2015 - Ottawa, Ontario - Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada
The Honourable Lynne Yelich, Minister of State (Foreign Affairs and Consular), today issued the following statement:
“The Government of Canada is pleased that Mohamed Fahmy is now on his way back to Canada following his pardon by Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
“Canada has worked tirelessly, at the highest levels, on Mr. Fahmy’s behalf. We are grateful that his long ordeal is over.
“We look forward to Mr. Fahmy’s return and his reunion with family and friends. We wish him well as he embarks on a new chapter in his life.”
Contacts
Media Relations Office
Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada
343-203-7700

Erdogan: Russia could lose Turkey’s friendship
Agencies/Tuesday, 6 October 2015/Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday warned Russia against losing Ankara’s friendship, after Russian warplanes twice violated its airspace near the Syrian border. “If Russia loses a friend like Turkey with whom it has a lot of cooperation it is going to lose a lot of things. It needs to know this,” Erdogan said in Belgium at a press conference alongside Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel broadcast on Turkish television. In his toughest remarks yet against Russia in the current crisis, Erdogan accused Moscow and its ally Iran of working to maintain the “state terror” of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. His comments came after Russian warplanes twice violated Turkish airspace at the weekend during Moscow’s bombing campaign in Syria aimed at bolstering the Assad regime. “It is of course not possible to remain patient about this,” said Erdogan, referring to the incursions into Turkish air space. Erdogan, whose country is NATO’s only majority Muslim member, applauded the reaction of the alliance to Russia’s actions. The NATO allies said Monday they “strongly protest” the violations by Russia and noted the “extreme danger of such irresponsible behavior.”“An attack on Turkey is an attack on NATO, this needs to be known,” said Erdogan, referring to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty that states an attack on one ally is an attack on them all. Russia accuses NATO of using Turkish incursion. Meanwhile, Russia’s NATO envoy said on Tuesday he thought the military alliance was using the accidental incursion of a Russian plane into Turkish airspace to distort the aims of Moscow’s air campaign in Syria, according to the TASS news agency. “The impression is that the incident in Turkish airspace was used to plug NATO as an organisation into the information campaign waged by the West to distort the aims of the operations carried out by the Russian air force in Syria,” Alexander Grushko, Russia’s NATO envoy, was quoted as telling reporters in Brussels. NATO on Tuesday rejected Moscow’s explanation that its warplanes violated the air space of alliance member Turkey at the weekend by mistake and said Russia was sending more ground troops to Syria. (With AFP and Reuters)

The Politics of Lies
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/October 06/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6608/malaysia-tukey-islamists
"There is no more rule of law." — Mahathir Mohamad, Malaysia's prime minister for 22 years.
The essential dynamics of the Islamist polity do not much vary from one Muslim-majority country to another: Corrupt, authoritarian leaders who have no respect for ethnic or religious plurality or dissent of any kind, who crack down on the press and legitimize their corrupt governance by frightening Muslims masses with a made-up threat of the clandestine Jew.
A flight from Kuala Lumpur to Istanbul will usually take around 11 hours. All the same, politically, Turkey and Malaysia are not so distant. The Turkish-Malaysian political parallels are crucial in understanding political Islam.
Back in 2013, President (then Prime Minister) Recep Tayyip Erdogan's chief advisor, Yigit Bulut, said that he would be "willing to die for Erdogan." He added: "There are millions like me." The statement was not shocking news in a country where Erdogan fans had the habit of walking around in shrouds -- in expression of their willingness to die for the supreme leader.
Two years later, the same leader-fetish has emerged in Malaysia. Rizuan Abd Hamid, a local leader in Kuala Lumpur of Malaysia's ruling party, UMNO (United Malays National Organization), said that he was willing to fight for Prime Minister Najib Razak "until his last breath."
Turkish President Erdogan's chief advisor, Yigit Bulut (left), says he's willing to die for his boss. Rizuan Abd Hamid (right), a local leader in Kuala Lumpur of Malaysia's ruling party, says he's willing to fight for Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak "until his last breath."
In 2013, Erdogan's government was badly shaken by two events. In the summer, millions of secular Turks took to the streets to protest the government's increasingly authoritarian and Islamist practices. In December, countless audio leaks, police reports and indictments unveiled massive corruption involving Erdogan, his family, four government ministers, high-ranking bureaucrats and Erdogan's business cronies.
Two years later, thousands of Malays are protesting Najib under a campaign named Bersih ("clean") -- a loose coalition of non-governmental organization that demand electoral reform. In July, the Wall Street Journal reported that nearly $700 million had been deposited into Najib's bank accounts shortly before elections in 2013. The money is linked to a government-owned investment company, 1MDB whose dealings are now being probed in Switzerland.
In 2013, Turkey's pro-government media and AKP party loyalists falsely claimed that the corruption allegations against them Prim Minister Erdogan were being masterminded by the Jewish lobby (among other foreign groups). In Malaysia, one party leader said that the money found in Najib's account would be used in a political campaign against an opposition party, which he falsely claimed was backed by "clandestine Jews."
In Malaysia, a government agency suspended the printing licenses of two newspapers, and now the government is considering curbs on social media. "There is no more rule of law," said Mahathir Mohamad who was Malaysia's prime minister for 22 years.
In Turkey, hundreds of journalists critical of Erdogan have been intimidated, prosecuted or have lost their jobs. Most recently, state prosecutors launched a probe into the country's most influential newspaper, Hurriyet, allegedly for making terrorist propaganda.
UMNO has led coalition governments in Malaysia for six decades. It remains the most popular political party among ethnic Malay Muslims. Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been Turkey's most popular party since it joined the political race in 2002. Its voters are mostly conservative Muslims.
In a 2013 speech at a United Nations forum, Erdogan said that Zionism is a "crime against humanity" and likened it to anti-Semitism, fascism, and Islamophobia. In the same year, Erdogan, along with Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei and UN official Richard Falk, was on top of the Simon Wiesenthal Center's annual list of the top 10 anti-Semitic and anti-Israel slurs.
The Malay response to Erdogan came with some delays. Last month UMNO party bigwig Rizuan Abd Hamid expressed pride in that "UMNO is one of the few governments that fight the Jews... other Asian countries have already been defeated by the Jews; Singapore is done, Thailand is done, Philippines is done, Indonesia is almost done for, but Malaysia has been protected by Datuk Seri Najib [Prime Minister Razak]."
Hardly any of this is surprising. The essential dynamics of the Islamist polity do not much vary from one Muslim-majority country to another, despite deep cultural, ethnic and linguistic differences: Corrupt, authoritarian leaders who have no respect for ethnic or religious plurality or dissent of any kind, who crack down on the press and legitimize their corrupt governance by frightening Muslims masses with a made-up threat of the clandestine Jew.
Few Turks could point to Malaysia on a map of the world. But most would sympathize with their "Malay brothers." It must be a pure coincidence that Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's official curriculum vitae proudly mentions: "In 1990 he became an Assistant Professor at the International Islamic University of Malaysia where he established and chaired the Political Science Department until 1993."
Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Russia's Syria Move Is a Mixed Blessing for Iran
Olivier Decottignies/Washington Institute/October 06/15
For all the praise (and relief) Moscow's deployment is eliciting in Tehran, continued Russian involvement will likely cut into Iran's influence. It comes as no surprise that Iran is praising Vladimir Putin's show of force in Syria. The spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry has called it "a step forward in the fight against terrorism and the resolution of the ongoing crisis in the region." And Mohsen Rezaii, a seasoned politician and former head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, went so far as to suggest that Moscow's involvement could encompass the Iraqi theater too. Purportedly dispatched to fight the Daesh/ISIS, Russia's Sukhoi jets enter the skies of Syria at a time when Bashar al-Assad's regime has suffered a series of military setbacks. After heavily supporting the regime through four years of war, Iran no doubt sees the intervention as a form of burden sharing. Indeed, recent Moscow visits by senior Iranian officials -- including Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani in July and chief Middle East diplomat Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in September -- suggest a degree of coordination. As early as February, Ali Akbar Velayati, the Supreme Leader's diplomatic advisor, traveled to the Russian capital and met with President Putin for what was described as a strategic conversation. And last week, Iraqi military officials announced the creation of a coordination cell in Baghdad to liaise with the Kremlin, Damascus, and Tehran on intelligence and security matters. Newly deployed Russian assets will prop up Assad forces on the ground, but they might also support Hezbollah -- a concern that Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu likely raised during his own recent trip to Moscow. There is now talk of a second coalition -- one distinct from the U.S.-led coalition formed a year ago to roll back ISIS. But with coalitions come coalition politics, where the most influential partners are those who are able and willing to contribute key capabilities and commit troops to the riskiest missions. In addition to putting boots on the ground, Russia has deployed a cavalry of attack helicopters and fighter bombers that can provide support to Assad's embattled forces all over Syria while potentially obstructing Western and Arab air forces. This is a contribution that Iran can hardly match, with its scarce and antiquated aircraft procured mostly in the time of the shah. Nor does it need to now that the Russians are in. Tehran's military posture is one of defensive and asymmetric warfare rather than force projection. So far, it has deployed mainly noncombat personnel to Syria -- advisors, trainers, and mentors, embedded at all levels of the Assad war machine -- while Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias have done most of the fighting. Russia is also in a better position to leverage its military role on the diplomatic stage, as demonstrated by Putin's lengthy meeting with President Obama in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, the first of its kind in a couple years. While Iran remains defiant toward Washington and entangled in a regional showdown with Saudi Arabia, Russia has shown a willingness to engage Western and regional countries on Syria (albeit to little avail so far). Moreover, many of the secular, Baathist officers who make up the Syrian regime's spine did much of their early training (and often found wives) in the Soviet Union, so they may prefer Russian advocates to their cumbersome protectors from the Islamic Republic. Thus, for all the praise (and relief) the intervention has engendered in Tehran, Russia's presence in Syria (and to a lesser extent Iraq) poses a challenge to Iran's influence -- both on the conduct of the war and on an eventual settlement, when Russian and Iranian interests may differ.
**Olivier Decottignies is a French diplomat-in-residence at The Washington Institute.

Best Bad Idea for America in Syria
Andrew J. Tabler/CNN/October 6, 2015
As Russia, Iran, and Assad fight to carve out their future spheres of influence in Syria, Washington needs to help its Sunni allies establish their own spheres and retake eastern territory from ISIS and al-Qaeda. In the spring of 2011, as Syrians were out in the streets demanding dictator Bashar al-Assad step aside, I worked with Obama administration officials on a set of economic and oil sanctions that would help force al-Assad to "step aside." Back in those days, his regime was only using live gunfire on protestors. But I remember telling my administration interlocutor that it would take a lot more than sanctions to get rid of al-Assad, and the sooner it's done, the better.As al-Assad moved up the escalation chain using mortars, tanks, artillery, and aircraft against his opponents, others came to the same conclusion. Indeed, in the summer of 2012, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, CIA director David Petraeus, and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta put a plan before President Barack Obama to arm the divided, but then primarily secular, Free Syrian Army. According to several accounts of the principals' meeting on the plan, Obama is said to have thanked his security cabinet for their hard work. But perhaps with an eye on the 2012 presidential election, he is believed to have opposed the United States going to war over an issue only a fraction of the American public cared about. Now, more than four years later -- and following Washington's empty promises to punish al-Assad for his repeated and continued use of chemical weapons -- most of those working on Syria wished we would have done much more, and much earlier, to achieve the President's goals. Syria has collapsed, is hemorrhaging people and has become the largest generator of Sunni-Shia extremism the world has ever seen. In Iraq, people hated us because we invaded and botched the occupation. In Syria and other majority Sunni countries of the Middle East, they now also hate America because of Obama's choices on Syria. As a result, there seems little chance the brave members of our homeland security and intelligence community will be able to indefinitely prevent the terrorist attacks that are likely on the way as a result of the indecisiveness and lack of planning that we have seen the past few years.
To top it all, Russia and Iran are moving militarily into Syria, meaning what was once "someone else's civil war" threatens to become a great power confrontation and a major setback for the United States and its allies. These developments risk being compounded by one of the key steps of the recent nuclear deal with Iran, namely a "rebalancing," which would use the agreement as a key with which to release Iran from the box it had been in since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. President Obama has described the end state of such rebalancing as geopolitical "equilibrium," a state in which Iranian interests check those of Turkey, the Arabs and ultimately the Israelis. But the Islamic Republic is now rapidly filling the vacuum left by a retreating America -- with Russian air cover and deep global implications. As a result of all this, years of dithering have given the United States not only bad, but worsening options in Syria. U.S. designated terrorist organizations like the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have mushroomed, as have numbers among Hezbollah and Shia militias propping up the al-Assad regime and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in the country's northeast.
How can and should we move forward? Today, the "best bad idea" we have (to steal a line from the movie Argo) is to recognize that Syria is a broken country that without concerted U.S. effort with its European and Sunni allies will not go back together again. Russia has intervened to save the al-Assad regime from collapse, creating a Russian-Iranian sphere of influence in Syria. But the odds are very, very long that such an intervention, even with extensive Iranian ground support, will be enough to retake and hold the majority Sunni areas of Eastern Syria that serve as the sectarian and demographic base of the Islamic State or the northern and southern areas of Syria currently under rebel control. This means the United States needs to develop and execute a plan to develop its Sunni allies' spheres of influence in Syria to help retake and stabilize those areas from ISIS and al Qaeda. However, such an operation will only succeed if Washington not only maintains its goal of al-Assad stepping aside, but adds a military component to the strategy as well. In the short term, that could mean limited no-fly zones over areas controlled by moderate and local forces in southern Syria. Later on, as part of a comprehensive solution in Syria, it could involve something closer to U.S. intervention and diplomacy to end the conflict in Bosnia or Kosovo. For now, President Obama seems unlikely to choose a more assertive course of action, despite the disaster of his Syria policy to date -- the White House is much more focused on implementing the Iran nuclear deal and rebalancing out of the Middle East. Yet given the threats being generated by the Syria crisis, it is hard not to see the United States finding itself sucked back into the region, with even worse odds of success than when it thought it was on the way out.
**Andrew Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Fellow in The Washington Institute's Program on Arab Politics.

Turkey Is in Serious Trouble
Soner Cagaptay/The Atlantic/October 6, 2015
The country has seen periods of turmoil before, but this time may be different. I am usually an optimist when it comes to Turkey's future. Indeed, I wrote a whole book about The Rise of Turkey. But these days, I'm worried. The country faces a toxic combination of political polarization, government instability, economic slowdown, and threats of violence -- from both inside and outside Turkey -- that could soon add up to a catastrophe. The likelihood of that outcome is increasing amid Russia's bombing raids in Syria in support of its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which threaten to debilitate the moderate rebels and boost the extremists in Syria's civil war, while leaving Turkey to deal with two unruly neighbors: Assad and ISIS.
Of course, Turkey has gone through periods of political and economic crisis before. During the 1970s, the country's economy collapsed, and the instability led to fighting among right- and left-wing militant groups and security forces that killed thousands of people. Then, in the 1990s, Turkey was pummeled by triple-digit inflation and a full-blown Kurdish insurgency that killed tens of thousands. Turkey survived both those decades. The historian in me says that Turkey will be able to withstand the coming shock this time as well. But the analyst in me says that things look different this time. For one thing, Turkey's Kurdish problem has changed. Until this year, Turkey's 10 to 12 million-strong Kurdish community, representing about 15 percent of the Turkish population, wasn't a unified political force; its internal splits followed the fault lines of the country as a whole. Starting in the 1990s, nationalist Kurds tended to vote for parties sympathetic to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which Turkey and the United States consider a terrorist group, and which fought for decades for independence from the Turkish government. But those voters were not the whole of the Kurdish electorate. Since the 1960s, the left-leaning Kurds who adhere to Alevism, a liberal branch of Islam, have voted for the social-democratic Republican People's Party, which is a secular, Turkish-nationalist movement. More importantly, conservative Kurds, who by my estimate represent nearly half of the Kurdish population, have tended to vote for the governing, pro-Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) ever since it was established by former prime minister, and current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2001.
In short, many of the Kurds liked the government, which in turn fought only the nationalist Kurds. Erdogan even launched negotiations with the PKK in 2012 in hopes of ending the insurgency. But the dynamic changed during Turkey's most recent elections in June 2015, when the Kurds -- liberal, conservative, and nationalist alike -- coalesced around the Kurdish-nationalist Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). (Unlike the PKK, the military wing of Turkey's Kurdish-nationalist movement, the HDP doesn't subscribe to violence, though Erdogan has been known to blur this distinction.) Alevi Kurds were attracted to the HDP's liberal approach to issues like women's and workers' rights, while conservative Kurds abandoned Erdogan's party for the HDP presumably because of the president's reluctance to help the Syrian Kurdish city of Kobani when it was besieged by the Islamic State beginning in September 2014.
Given the political consolidation of the Turkish Kurds under the HDP, when the government launched airstrikes against the PKK this summer, it risked starting a war with its entire Kurdish community. The nature of the recent fighting has been a case in point. In September, the government enforced a week-long curfew; shut down electricity, Internet, and phone access; and sent in thousands of troops and police to Cizre, a Kurdish-majority town of 130,000 on the Turkish-Syrian-Iraqi border, before security forces could establish a tenuous hold on the area. Previously when the government fought the PKK, it could count on help from the local Kurdish population. That is no longer the case.
And Cizre is only the beginning of Turkey's new Kurdish challenge. The country's 500-mile border with Syria has become a permeable barrier due to the government's policy of abetting rebels battling the Assad regime. But border flows go both ways. Support from Syria's well-organized and well-armed pro-PKK Kurds could fuel the fighting in Turkey, complicating the government's efforts not only within Turkey itself, but also in Syria where Turkey-backed proxy groups operate near Kurdish areas in their fight against the Assad regime. For the first time, Turkey risks a two-country Kurdish insurgency.
And that same border with Syria offers a gateway for ISIS attacks inside Turkey. In July, after the Islamic State claimed credit for a suicide bombing in the Turkish town of Suruc that killed more than 30 people, Erdogan agreed to open Turkish bases to U.S. planes and drones, and pledged to join the U.S. campaign to bomb ISIS targets in Syria. In doing so, Erdogan has ensured that ISIS sees Turkey as an enemy, and the group will inevitably, and unfortunately, attack Turkey again. The only question is when, and how severely. Turkey is theoretically powerful enough, with U.S. backing, to withstand the threats from both ISIS and the PKK. But it's not clear the government has the domestic support it needs to do so. This is the crux of my worries: At another time, most Turks would, however grudgingly, have stood behind the government -- even at the cost of life and liberty -- for the sake of their own security. That no longer seems to be the case in today's political climate.
Turkish concerns over the PKK and ISIS appear to have been trumped by polarization between pro- and anti-AKP camps. At the height of the PKK insurgency in the 1990s, I attended funerals in Turkey where family members of security officers killed in the fighting would praise the Turkish government's efforts against the insurgents in eulogies for their loved ones. Over 70 members of the Turkish police and military have been killed by the PKK since July, and in many cases their funerals have turned into anti-AKP and anti-Erdogan rallies. In the wake of the Suruc attack, protesters blamed the government for failing to stop it. The source of Turkey's dangerous polarization is Erdogan himself. Erdogan has won successive elections since 2002, and built a cult of personality, as a kind of authoritarian underdog, portraying himself as a victim who is forced to crack down harshly on those whose "conspiracies" undermine his authority. On this basis, he has successfully targeted and politically brutalized the secular Turkish military, businesses, liberals, the media, Jews, left-wing voters, Alevis, and now the Kurds.
Combined with the story of Turkey's economic success, this narrative has contributed to Erdogan's enduring, if shrinking, popularity. And though he stepped down as prime minister and AKP leader in August 2014 due to his party's term limits, he has continued to run Turkey as president from behind the scenes. As a result, the country is on the verge of a constitutional crisis: It is a parliamentary democracy per its charter, with the prime minister as head of government responsible for running the country, but it looks more and more like a de facto presidential system, with Erdogan at the helm. The AKP won about 40 percent of the vote in the last election, and Erdogan himself retains significant support from Turks who identify with his humble roots and social conservatism. Conversely, the nearly 60 percent of the electorate that voted for anti-AKP parties in the June 7 elections, including a demonized and alienated opposition, will not support his efforts to change the constitution and give himself more power.
And violence is increasingly part of this hazardous split. The Erdoganist camp is turning to vigilantism to "defend Erdogan." On September 7, for example, a pro-AKP mob raided the offices of Hurriyet, Turkey's most popular and influential daily, setting it on fire in retaliation for Hurriyet's supposedly unsympathetic coverage of the president. Though Erdogan's opponents are divided politically among different parties, any of them could strike back in this climate -- witness the worrisome rise of formerly dormant far-left militant groups and attacks by the PKK. Can Turkey withstand the simultaneous challenges of a multi-country Kurdish insurgency, ISIS attacks, and political violence between pro- and anti-AKP camps? Can it replicate its resilience of the 1970s and the 1990s? The answer largely lies with Erdogan. The AKP's defeat in June's elections was no doubt related to Turkey's slowing economy, but it also had roots in popular pushback against Erdogan's desire to change Turkey's parliamentary democracy into a presidential system. Many Turks, including liberal pundits, supported Erdogan in the period from 2007 to 2010 when he locked up secular-minded generals and journalists with scant evidence, alleging they were involved in a coup plot against him. After all, the Turkish military had a history of involvement in politics, and a coup plot wasn't out of the question. But times have changed, and Erdogan's liberal enablers in the media, business community, and civil society are now his targets. The government's violent crackdown on the peaceful Gezi Park rallies in 2013 -- which started as a movement to prevent a park from being turned into a shopping mall, but ballooned into massive, anti-AKP demonstrations all over the country -- is a case in point.
Polls show that the AKP is unlikely to win a majority of the vote in upcoming elections on November 1. In that context, and given the country's deep divisions, Turkey's only way out is for Erdogan to pull back to the powers defined for his office by the Turkish constitution: a non-partisan president who is not in charge of government. There is no evidence that Erdogan will accept this, or that his doing so would heal the damage he's done, especially when it comes to Syria. Turkey will remain exposed to the civil war there, and Russian intervention will only complicate its position. But insofar as Erdogan has polarized his country, it's ultimately up to him to tamp down tensions before they explode.
*Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute. This article was originally published on the Atlantic website.

Syria, Russia and the Arabs: Could it get any worse?
Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/October 06/15
Last Wednesday, the Russians bombed Homs at noon, and the Americans bombed Aleppo in the afternoon. Both say the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is the target, while the Syrian opposition - which published a list of the names of around 40 dead civilians - claims it is the one being bombed. Meanwhile, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must have been following news of these bombings with a map of his homeland in front of him and a smile on his face. Thousands of defeated Arabs are toasting each other over Russian aggression against an Arab land. Things cannot get any worse, but we need to prepare for another tragedy at the hands of Assad. The Russians are cruel players at war, and do not value human rights. They burn the land and its residents just to eliminate one fighter. They did that in Afghanistan, displacing 5 million Afghans in one year. They did the same in Chechnya. If the Russians are not stopped, they will repeat the same crimes in Syria, leaving us with more displaced, dead and wounded civilians, while the only relief we can offer is more camps, caravans and another donor conference.
Saudi challenge
What is happening is a big challenge for Saudi Arabia, which will not bare an Iranian victory in Syria that would take away the beating heart of Arabism. This is not a Russian occupation, but a Russian-Iranian deal. Assad could not win this war despite the ferocity of Iran and Hezbollah. His aircraft is capable only of killing civilians with barrel-bombs. This is why he resorted to Russia. It is a partnership. It would be ignorant to believe that the Russian military presence in Syria will be at the expense of Iran. President Vladimir Putin clearly stated that Russian participation will be aerial only. They are all standing in one operation room. The first fires smart bombs and provides satellite photos, while the others move on the ground to destroy the Syrian revolution. They will continue to do so if we do not make a move. If they achieve victory, Assad will keep his presidential palace, while Iran will keep all of Syria and spreads Shiism in it, displacing whomever it wants into and out of Syria. Maybe one day we will discuss the “right of return” of Syrian refugees. Some will think I am exaggerating, but does Iranian insolence have any limits? Saudi Arabia will resist all that. I expect it will move diplomatically first to form an Arab stand rejecting Russian interference, then to establish an international stance. Then it will increase its support for the resistance. These are dangerous grounds. The formation of an Arab stance will put to the test the sincerity of some of its allies. Egypt, for example, is enthusiastic about the Russian aggression, but no resolution can emanate from the Arab League without Egypt, and Saudi Arabia will not accept that its ally provides unprecedented support to its Russian opponent. Riyadh must point out to the Americans that this is due to their weakness. They must act to stop their dignity falling apart from Ukraine to Damascus. While Assad’s partisans in Beirut, Cairo and Tehran were celebrating an expected Russian victory in Syria, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir was more decisive, saying “military action” was one of two options to overthrow Assad. Riyadh believes that no peace will be achieved in his presence.
Those who are not acquainted with Saudi Arabia must know that it does not resort to threats and intimidation if it cannot act on them. For example, it never threatened to destroy Israel. This is why Jubeir’s insistence on the expression “military action” means Riyadh is ready for confrontation.
Options
There are 1,000 ways to thwart the Iranian-Russian project in Syria, and Saudi Arabia will have to make a choice depending on its knowledge of the Syrian arena and its popular support there. The first step will be to protect the two most important factions targeted by the Russians: Ahrar al-Sham and the Army of Islam, whose images are being distorted to make them seem like ISIS, even though they are fighting it more than the regime. Thousands of defeated Arabs are toasting each other over Russian aggression against an Arab land. Ahrar al-Sham is being subjected to a smear campaign in Germany, where it was sent to court to be considered a terrorist organization. If such a decision is issued, it will be easier to criminalize its members throughout Europe. This will mean criminalizing the most powerful moderate Syrian faction. Saudi Arabia is carrying a heavy weight on its shoulders, but this has to be done. Iran now feels more confident in becoming a bully. The Russians are taking charge of the aerial war, while Tehran sends thousands to complete the mission on the ground. Its confidence has pushed it to venture into Yemen too. Iranian shipments of weapons, confiscated by coalition forces, are an example of that. So too are threats by Supreme leader Ali Khamenei to use force against Riyadh following the hajj pilgrim stampede. Russia too has tools of pressure, as it is a superpower that can influence the U.N. Security Council to behave negatively regarding the war in Yemen. It would be naïve to believe that Riyadh can choose between Yemen and Syria. This is not a struggle for land, or a conflict between a secular Syria and an Islamic one. It is a struggle between tyranny and freedom, and freedom will prevail. This is the real Arab liberation war, so we must win.

Panorama: Russian violation of Turkish airspace and situation in Syria
Dr. Theodore Karasik/Al Arabiya/October 06/15
Russia’s military activities, coupled with the Kremlin’s diplomatic solutions to the Syria crisis, are bringing Chinese views and actions into sharp relief. Moscow and Beijing are linked together through a number of channels, including the BRICS association, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and other institutions that illustrate a mix of political-economic unity. On Syria, China is maintaining, for now, its usual policy of patience and heart. As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the U.N. Security Council, the world cannot afford to stand by, but must also must not “arbitrarily interfere” in the Syrian crisis. He emphasized the humanitarian challenge with vigor. Those comments seemed to be a message to Moscow on airstrikes and other activity. However, in the age of information warfare, comments may be interpreted in different ways, especially on Syria. The Chinese see the internationalization of what to do with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), but also Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Throughout the Syria debacle, Beijing has supported Russia, but there is more to the Chinese policy. It also involves an expanding presence in the Mediterranean and other sea lanes. China is part of the EUNAVFOR counter-piracy mission, which is set to expire next year. In addition, a 700-strong Chinese battalion is in Sudan under an UNMISS mandate. The Chinese are involved where needed most on the regional and international stages. Down the road, Russia will need Chinese help on the Syrian transition away from Assad, through negotiation and elections, to a new government. That type of thinking was seen when Wang met with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem in New York. In that discussion, Wang said China believed the world should respect Syria’s sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity. Those comments sound like they came from the Kremlin.
Naval presence
Shady reports and rumors are fuelling the perception of China’s partnership with Russia on the latter’s military operations in Syria, especially in the maritime domain. The presence of Chinese naval ships in the Mediterranean is fuelling speculation that Beijing may be sending military personnel to Syria to reinforce the Assad regime. Zhang Junshe, a senior researcher at the PLA Naval Military Studies Research Institute, said hyper conspiracy theory reportage might have been confused over the movements of the Chinese navy’s 152nd fleet. It is headed by the Jinan guided-missile destroyer, along with the Yiyang frigate and the Qiandaohu supply ship, and has been conducting naval activities in the Mediterranean with Russia and Egypt. Zhang said after completing a four-month escort mission, the fleet began a five-month global tour from Aug. 23 that began from the Gulf of Aden, and included a passage through the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean and the Baltic Sea. The fleet has so far visited Sudan, Egypt, Denmark and Finland, after passing through the Mediterranean in late August or early September. The Chinese do have a vessel in the Syrian port of Latakia. According to a security official of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the vessel is “just sitting” there, possibly in case Chinese diplomats or other officials in Damascus need help or evacuation out of Assad’s areas of control. Or perhaps the vessel is observing Russian actions.
Threats
The Chinese are very worried about ISIS. Beijing’s policy has remained to avoid becoming a target. Its policy in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq all follow that line. Now, with Russian actions in Syria, China may well see itself on the cusp of getting involved against ISIS in new ways in the near future.
Uighurs are the key Chinese concern. In July 2014, ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi called out Chinese oppression of the Muslim Uighur minority in Xinjiang province. “Your brothers all over the world are waiting your rescue, and are anticipating your brigades,” he said. In September, ISIS taunted China in its online magazine Dabiq, featuring “the sale” of Fan Jinghui, a freelance consultant from Beijing. Reports of ISIS recruiters in Hong Kong approaching Indonesians and using Malaysia as a hub for gathering potential fighters only forces China to be more cautious but calculating. The plight of the Uighurs is not new, but what is new is disenchanted Uighurs who take up the ISIS message of violence. Caliphate Uighurs number perhaps over 1,000, each a ticking time bomb from Beijing’s point of view. That view came into sharp relief in Aug. 2015 in Bangkok, Thailand, when Uighur terrorists killed almost two-dozen people at the Hindu Erawan Shrine. Although not an outright ISIS attack, the Uighur bombing is a harbinger of things to come. With Russian actions in Syria, China may well see itself on the cusp of getting involved against ISIS in new ways in the near future. China is playing its game slowly and methodologically, using its usual practise of principals for engagement, whether diplomatic or militarily. Beijing is approaching the Russian action in Syria from a sense of being a partner, urging cooperation and strategy. The Kremlin understands Chinese foreign policy approaches very well, and Moscow and Beijing will approach each other within the following omnidirectional concept on Syria and ISIS: “You agree, I agree; you disagree, I disagree; you abstain, I abstain.” If necessary, China will perhaps see its first real display of force projection using concepts found in irregular warfare if the conditions merit such activity.

Are we on the brink of a religious war in Jerusalem?
Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/October 06/15
Escalating clashes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians in Jerusalem have been framed as a religious war by the media and right-wingers on both sides. That is understandable given the frequent assaults on Al-Aqsa mosque compound, mostly by Jewish settlers under heavy police protection. However, the clashes are described as religious in nature more by the Israelis than the Palestinians, as if to justify acts that cannot be legally or morally justified. The supposedly democratic and civic state of Israel has never cracked down any extremist Jewish groups in the way Arabs have been doing against Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and other radical Islamist organizations. After recently writing about Jerusalem, an Israeli professor at an American university emailed me, advising me to tone it down regarding the clashes in the Old City, and claiming that the Islamic Waqf (trust) in Jerusalem has been working to change the Jewish identity of the city. This is not a religious war. It is Palestinians resisting settlers who are pursuing a political agenda of changing the status quo in Jerusalem regarding holy sites, which has been in place since 1967. How? Have Muslims in Jerusalem ever stormed the Wailing Wall, the Kotel or any other Jewish holy site? Have Jerusalemites ever attacked settlers unless in retaliation? The fact is that insecurity, tension and religious fanaticism in Jerusalem are always ignited by settlers under Israeli army protection.
Status quo
Of course, when Al-Haram al-Sharif is under attack, Palestinians will respond using all possible means to defend their third-holiest site. However, this is not a religious war. It is Palestinians resisting settlers who are pursuing a political agenda of changing the status quo in Jerusalem regarding holy sites, which has been in place since 1967. This is part of the Israeli scheme to transform the multi-religious, multi-cultural city into a purely Jewish one. The recent Israeli ban on Palestinian worshippers in illegally annexed East Jerusalem is not a security measure, but an affront to the administrative status quo that guarantees followers of all three Abrahamic faiths the right to worship. Changing that status quo violates Israeli commitments and closes the door on the two-state solution. Jerusalem and Al-Haram al-Sharif is a red line for all Muslims. I was told days ago by a Pakistani ex-general that his country - a nuclear power - cannot remain idle over Jerusalem. “Al-Haram al-Sharif, like Mecca and Medina, is in our hearts and blood. We were taught that in the military academies.”

A Russian journalist’s email about Syria
Diana Moukalled/Al Arabiya/October 06/15
In an email to me, a journalist who wants to come to Lebanon to do a documentary on Syrian refugees, wrote: “Hello, I am your colleague from Russia from Russian national TV.” That phrase kept going through my mind as I looked at photos of Russian President Vladimir Putin and read news of his new military adventures in Syria to save his tyrannical ally Bashar al-Assad. I felt that this alleged friendship by this journalist, who works for a government channel in Russia and follows the orders of the Kremlin, aimed to involve me in what I have previously rejected and still reject today. Why does this journalist want to come to Lebanon and do a report on refugees? Did Putin send her? Why does she want to work with me? Does she want to do this report out of sympathy with those escaping death, or out of a desire to confirm that refugees fled Syria to escape the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)? Does she want to send a message that the war that Moscow is fighting in Syria is sacred, as the Russian Orthodox Church announced? Who gave her my name and email address? How and why?
Rationality
I may have exaggerated my analysis of this email from a complete stranger. I may have had some far-fetched conspiratorial concerns, but why not, after Moscow and Tehran imposed a formula stipulating that Assad is part of the solution to the Syrian crisis, and that he may be present in the transitional phase?
Was thinking of the possibility of him staying in power not considered insane? Did being rational not conclude that Assad would step down during the first weeks of the Syrian revolution? Did rational analysis not suppose that the murder of protestors and the deaths of detainees due to torture would mobilize the world against Assad? Did rational analysis also not stipulate that the regime’s use of prohibited weapons would not go unpunished, and would not be tolerated by the world’s conscience? What was irrational years ago - the death of thousands of Syrians without anyone acting to save them - has become our reality. We are now being asked to accept that Assad - a murderer and a criminal - is part of the solution, and that the problem in Syria is limited to ISIS. Is it not irrational that the first Russian military strike in Syria did not hit ISIS? It actually killed civilians in Homs. Justifying Assad’s presence in a transitional phase by saying this is the rational solution actually reflects the depravity of values in today’s world. Can we imagine a future for Syria with Assad? I cannot, and neither can many Syrians. The world’s stance on the matter remains confused despite the roar of Russian jets in Syrian airspace.

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