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Bible Quotation For Today/Blessed is that slave whom his master will find at work when he arrives
Matthew 24/45-51: "‘Who then is the faithful and wise slave, whom his master has put in charge of his household, to give the other slaves their allowance of food at the proper time? Blessed is that slave whom his master will find at work when he arrives. Truly I tell you, he will put that one in charge of all his possessions. But if that wicked slave says to himself, "My master is delayed", and he begins to beat his fellow-slaves, and eats and drinks with drunkards, the master of that slave will come on a day when he does not expect him and at an hour that he does not know. He will cut him in pieces and put him with the hypocrites, where there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

Bible Quotation For Today/you are all children of light and children of the day; we are not of the night or of darkness.
First Letter to the Thessalonians 05/01-11: "Concerning the times and the seasons, brothers and sisters, you do not need to have anything written to you. For you yourselves know very well that the day of the Lord will come like a thief in the night. When they say, ‘There is peace and security’, then sudden destruction will come upon them, as labour pains come upon a pregnant woman, and there will be no escape! But you, beloved, are not in darkness, for that day to surprise you like a thief; for you are all children of light and children of the day; we are not of the night or of darkness.
So then, let us not fall asleep as others do, but let us keep awake and be sober; for those who sleep sleep at night, and those who are drunk get drunk at night. But since we belong to the day, let us be sober, and put on the breastplate of faith and love, and for a helmet the hope of salvation.
For God has destined us not for wrath but for obtaining salvation through our Lord Jesus Christ, who died for us, so that whether we are awake or asleep we may live with him. Therefore encourage one another and build up each other, as indeed you are doing.

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 11-12/15
Analysis: The limits of Iranian power/Jonathan Spyer/J.Post/October 11/15
Germany: Migrant Crime Wave, Police Capitulate/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/October 11/15
Confronting Russia now is too late, too difficult/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/October 11/15
Sheikh Mohammad’s ‘Marshal Plan’ maybe the region’s last chance/Faisal J. Abbas/Al Arabiya/October 11/15
There is nothing glamorous about ‘Migrant Chic’/Yara al-Wazir/Al Arabiya/October 11/15
Forging the future of the Arab world/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/October 11/15
Why is the “right war” taking a wrong turn/Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat/October 11/15
Syrian Quicksand/Ali Ibrahim/Asharq Alawsat/October 11/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on October 11-12/15
Report: Top Hezbollah Commander in Syria Killed by Rebels
Aoun from Baabda: Those Hindering National Obligations Will Pay the Price
Thousands of Lebanese rally for Christian politician Aoun
Suleiman: My Conscience is Clear over Failure of Security Appointments Settlement
Report: Implementation of Shehayyeb's Trash Plan Awaiting Hizbullah's Approval
Militants Killed, Injured in Heavy Army Shelling of Arsal Outskirts
3 Hurt as Residents Clash with Srar Garbage Dump Employees
Former Minister, MP Elias Skaff Dead at 67

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 11-12/15
Druze-Israeli Deputy Minister Says Yemen Jews Told to Leave or Convert to Islam
Israel Gaza Air Raid Kills 2 as Palestinian Shot Dead and 4 Israelis Stabbed
Palestinian Leaders Seek to Keep Lid on Israel Clashes
Putin Meets Mohammed bin Salman on Syria 'Political Solution'
French Citizens were in Syria IS Camp Struck by France
Syria Opposition to Boycott U.N. Talks, Cites Russia Strikes
Iraq Claims IS Chief Baghdadi Hit in Air Raid
Taliban Car Bomb Targets British Military Convoy in Kabul
Russia Seeks Victory over the West in Syria Campaign

Report: Top Hezbollah Commander in Syria Killed by Rebels
The Algemeiner/October 11, 2015 /A key figure and founder of Hezbollah’s military wing was killed today (Sunday) during a battle with rebel fighters in north-western Syria, Israel’s Channel 2 reported. According to the Israeli site, Hassan Hussein al-Haj is the most senior commander of the Palestinian terror group based in Lebanon to have been killed since the organization’s entry into the years-long civil war in Syria. Lebanese media reports say that al-Haj joined the Syrian army’s forces in the framework of the military expansion to Hama and Idlib that began Friday. The battle in which he was killed was an attempt by Syrian regime forces to re-occupy the village of Mansoura, in the Hama region.According to Channel 2, sources in Hezbollah and Iran have confirmed the death of al-Haj, who headed Hezbollah operations in Syria. His killing, according to the report, is the second tough blow to the Iranian-Syrian coalition in the last two days, the first one being the killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Brigadier General Hossein Hamedani by ISIS.

Aoun from Baabda: Those Hindering National Obligations Will Pay the Price
Naharnet/October 11/15/Free Patriotic Movement chief MP Michel Aoun vowed on Sunday to continue his movement's mission to combat corruption in Lebanon, blaming the political class for the country's problems. He declared: “Those manipulating the parliamentary elections and hindering other national obligations will pay the price of their actions.”He made his declaration during an FPM rally near the presidential palace in Baabda commemorating the events of October 13, 1990. “The problem we face today is that we are being governed by the same officials who were ruling on October 13, 1990,” he continued. “A new phase of struggle has begun and it will result in change, at your hands through elections, and then we will play our role to achieve reform,” he told the cheering crowd. “The promised miracle will take place through you. Only your voice will restore Lebanon's glory,” said Aoun. “They are doing their utmost to stifle our voice, but your voice comes from God and no one can stop it,” he remarked. “Change will take place through real elections. We therefore demand the adoption of an electoral law based on proportionality,” he stressed. “To those accusing us of paralyzing state institutions, we say, yes, we are obstructing corruption and attempts to violate the constitution,” he added. Turning to the prolonged presidential vacuum, Aoun remarked: “We do not want a consensual president, who will divide Lebanon to appease greedy officials. We also do not want the election of a neutral head of state.” “We do not want the election of a puppet president, but one who will reflect your image,” declared Aoun, who is a presidential candidate.Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls. Furthermore, Aoun said that the current cabinet “should have resigned long ago,” while voicing his disappointment with the mounting daily problems the Lebanese people are facing, starting with the constant power outages and ongoing garbage disposal crisis. During Lebanon's 1975-90, civil war, Aoun served as the premier of the legal faction of the two rival governments contending for power in the country from 1988 to October 1990. He declared the “Liberation War” against the Syrian occupation on March 14 1989. On the October 13, 1990, the Syrian forces invaded Beirut, killing hundreds of unarmed soldiers and civilians. Aoun, then-prime minister, left the Presidential Palace and sought refuge in the French Embassy and he was later allowed to travel to France. He returned to Lebanon on May 7, 2005, eleven days after the withdrawal of Syrian troops.

Thousands of Lebanese rally for Christian politician Aoun
BEIRUT/Reuters/Mohamed Azakir/October/15/Thousands of Lebanese rallied at the presidential palace outside Beirut on Sunday in a show of support for Christian politician Michel Aoun, pressing their demand for him to fill the presidency vacant for over a year. Waving the orange flag of Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), they packed streets in the Baabda district that houses the headquarters of the presidency. The presidency is set aside for a Maronite Christian but has been unoccupied due to a political crisis stoked by regional conflicts including the war in neighboring Syria. "The president of the republic shouldn't be just any person who fills the post, as some people want him to be," Aoun told the crowd as his supporters shouted, "Aoun for president of the republic!" "It should be someone who is like you, who reflects you and who rejects oppression and stands up for your rights," he said. The rally was called to mark events in October 1990, near the end of the Lebanese civil war, when the Syrian army captured Baabda and many Lebanese soldiers loyal to Aoun were killed. Aoun - head of one of two rival administrations at the time - was forced out of the presidential palace and later into exile. Aoun, an ally of the powerful Lebanese Shi'ite Muslim movement Hezbollah, has made clear he would like the presidency, but he lacks the backing of a rival alliance led by Sunni Muslim politician Saad al-Hariri. That bloc includes prominent Christian rivals to Aoun, notably his civil war enemy Samir Geagea, who also seeks the presidency. Aoun, who has argued that Christians are being politically marginalized in Lebanon, has said the president should be elected in a popular vote if parliament cannot agree. Resolving the deadlock over the presidency has been complicated by regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia, which backs Hariri, and Iran, which supports Hezbollah. Aoun has taken aim at the national unity government led by Prime Minister Tammam Salam, saying it has usurped the powers of the presidency. FPM ministers have not, however, quit the government. Salam's government, formed with Saudi-Iranian blessing, has spared Lebanon a complete vacuum in the executive arm but has been unable to take any major decisions due to a lack of consensus. Lebanon's political paralysis has fueled a broader wave of discontent that has touched off sometimes violent protests over failing public services in recent months. Anger came to a head this summer over a crisis over trash disposal that left piles of refuse mounting on Beirut's streets. (Reporting by Sylvia Westall; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

Suleiman: My Conscience is Clear over Failure of Security Appointments Settlement
Naharnet/October 11/15/Former President Michel Suleiman noted that the failed settlement over the security appointments would have “violated the rights of Christians,” reported the daily al-Mustaqbal on Sunday. He therefore expressed his satisfaction with its failure, adding: “My conscience is clear.” Blame had been directed towards Suleiman's Consultative Gathering and the Kataeb Party over the failure of the proposal. “The soldier sacrifices himself for the military institution and we have showed our loyalty to the army through our rejection of the suggestion,” said Suleiman, who is a former army commander. Furthermore, he remarked that the privileges of the president would have also been harmed had the proposal been adopted. “The security promotions are the responsibility of the head of state, who signs the decrees and refers them to the concerned minister,” he explained. “The failed plan suggested that this responsibility be handed to the cabinet” that would politicize the issue, Suleiman added. “We therefore protected the military against political meddling and averted political interests from interfering in security promotions,” he continued. “This is a major achievement,” stressed the former president. The thorny issue of military appointments and promotions is one of the main points of contention paralyzing the cabinet's work. Sources close to Free Patriotic Movement MP Michel Aoun have blamed the ministerial bloc loyal to Suleiman for the deadlock on military promotions. Political rivals had held backstage talks on the promotions in recent days. Earlier this week, Colonel Maroun al-Qobayati was appointed as commander of the army's Commando Regiment to replace Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz, media reports said. Aoun had been hoping that the promotion of Roukoz, his son-in-law, would keep him in the military and make him eligible to lead the institution.

Report: Implementation of Shehayyeb's Trash Plan Awaiting Hizbullah's Approval
Naharnet/October 11/15/The final preparations for the implementation of Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb's waste disposal plan are underway amid the search for a suitable landfill location, reported the daily al-Mustaqbal on Sunday. Ministerial sources told the daily that the implementation of the plan is “awaiting the approval of Hizbullah over a new proposed location of a landfill in the northern Bekaa region.” Should an approval be made, then Prime Minister Tammam Salam will call cabinet to session to ratify the executive steps for Shehayyeb's proposal, added the sources. They predicted that Hizbullah would announce its stance on Sunday or Monday at the latest. Cabinet will consequently be held on Monday or Tuesday, they stated. Lebanon was plunged in a garbage disposal crisis after the closure of the Naameh landfill on July 17. The closure resulted in the accumulation of trash on the streets throughout the country and the popping up of arbitrary dumps, which have created health and environment hazards. Shehayyeb had proposed the temporary reopening of the Naameh landfill and the establishment of two sanitary landfills.

Militants Killed, Injured in Heavy Army Shelling of Arsal Outskirts
Naharnet/October 11/15/Several extremist militants were killed or injured Sunday as the army opened artillery fire at their positions in the outskirts of the northeastern border town of Arsal, state-run National News Agency reported. It said the shelling targeted militant gatherings and movements in Wadi al-Kheil near the al-Qarn Hill. “The bombardment became much fiercer after the militants started moving in Wadi al-Kheil, Wadi al-Oueini and Tallat al-Furn, where large numbers of al-Nusra Front and Islamic State jihadists are positioned,” NNA added. The army managed to destroy a convoy of military and construction vehicles that were operating in the region, killing and wounding several militants, the agency The militants' dead and wounded were transferred to field hospitals in Wadi Hmeid and Wadi al-Kheil. “The army is continuing its artillery bombardment and has brought reinforcements into the town” of Arsal, NNA added. IS and Nusra militants are entrenched in the mountainous border area near Syria and have used the arid terrain to launch attacks on Lebanese security forces. Earlier this year, five Lebanese soldiers died in clashes with around 200 gunmen who entered Lebanon from the Qalamun region of Syria. Syria's civil war has regularly spilled over into Lebanon, with jihadists briefly overrunning the town of Arsal in August 2014 after gunbattles with the army. The jihadists withdrew after a ceasefire, but took with them several dozen hostages from the army and police, four of whom have since been executed.

3 Hurt as Residents Clash with Srar Garbage Dump Employees
Naharnet/October 11/15/Three people were injured Sunday in a clash between residents and employees of the controversial Srar garbage dump in the northern district of Akkar.State-run National News Agency identified the wounded as Osama Raad, Abdul Karim al-Mill and Ahmed Fadel.
It said the confrontation involved residents and bulldozer drivers.“The residents have urged security forces to intervene,” the agency added. Meanwhile, the Akkar is Not a Dump campaign said on its Facebook page that “the thugs of Khaldoun al-Yassine al-Merehbi opened fire from their assault rifles at residents who sought to prevent the bulldozers from carrying on with excavation works.”It also said that residents from the area blocked the al-Abboudiyeh road “in protest at the acts of thuggery that are being committed by Khaldoun al-Yassine al-Merehbi and his thugs.”The campaign noted that “residents are still being targeted by gunfire.”An emergency waste management plan devised by Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb and a team of experts envisages turning an existing garbage dump in the Srar area into a so-called “sanitary landfill” capable of receiving trash from areas across Lebanon.It also calls for reopening the Naameh landfill, which was closed in mid-July, for seven days to dump the garbage that accumulated in random sites in Beirut and Mount Lebanon. The plan also includes setting up a “sanitary landfill” in the Bekaa region. After he announced his plan last month, civil society activists and local residents of Akkar, Naameh, Majdal Anjar, and Bourj Hammoud protested against the step, citing perceived environmental and health hazards. Experts have urged the government to devise a comprehensive waste management solution that would include more recycling and composting to reduce the amount of trash going into landfills. Environmentalists fear the crisis could soon degenerate to the point where garbage as well as sewage will simply overflow into the sea from riverbeds as winter rains return. The health ministry has warned that garbage scattered by seasonal winds could also block Lebanon's drainage system. The trash crisis has sparked angry protests that initially focused on waste management but grew to encompass frustrations with water and electricity shortages and Lebanon's chronically divided political class.Campaigns like "You Stink" brought tens of thousands of people into the streets in unprecedented non-partisan and non-sectarian demonstrations against the entire political class.

Former Minister, MP Elias Skaff Dead at 67
Naharnet/October 11/15/Former Minister and MP Elias Joseph Skaff passed away on Saturday after a long battle with illness. He was 67.Skaff was first elected an MP in the eastern Bekaa Valley in 1992 following the death of his father ex-Minister Joseph Skaff and later in 1996.He was reelected for the eastern city of Zahle's Catholic seat in 2001 and 2005. He also served as minister in several governments between 2003 and 2009. Skaff was born in Cyprus on October 11, 1948 and spent his childhood in New Zealand with his mother where he received his primary eduction. He returned to Lebanon at the age of 16 and continued his education at a school in Shwaifat. He graduated in 1975 from the Faculty of Agriculture at the American University of Beirut. Skaff is survived by his wife Miriam Jebran Tawq and their two children Joseph and Jebran.
Lebanon

Druze-Israeli Deputy Minister Says Yemen Jews Told to Leave or Convert to Islam
The Algemeiner/October 11, 2015 /The government of Yemen recently issued a proclamation that all Jews in the country must leave or convert to Islam, Israeli Deputy Minister of Regional Cooperation, Likud MK Ayoob Kara told The Algemeiner on Sunday. According to Kara, failure to exercise one of the two options would spell grave danger for the country’s estimated 80 remaining Jews, whom the government said it would “not be able to protect.” Kara, a member of Israel’s Druze community, revealed that he received this information in a meeting today with a Yemenite Jew, who was able to come to Israel by disguising himself as a Muslim. According to Kara, the man left Yemen a few days ago, traveling via Saudi Arabia and Jordan to Israel. Kara said he was contacted because of his appearances in Arabic media outlets, and his efforts to aid minorities – including Jews, Christians, Druze and others – living in fear in Muslim countries. Kara said he will be meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tomorrow — and with Jewish Agency Chairman Natan Sharansky and Minister of Immigrant Absorption Sofa Landver shortly thereafter – to discuss rescuing the Jews of Yemen. When contacted by the Jerusalem Post about the matter, both the Jewish Agency and Israel’s Foreign Ministry declined to comment on their efforts, due to the sensitivity of the issue. Yemen’s Jewish community numbered around 50,000 in the 1940s, but the vast majority fled to Israel shortly after the founding of the Jewish state in 1948.

Israel Gaza Air Raid Kills 2 as Palestinian Shot Dead and 4 Israelis Stabbed
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 11/15/A Palestinian teenager was shot dead in the West Bank and four Israelis were stabbed Sunday as violence mounted following an air strike that killed a pregnant woman and toddler in Gaza. Israeli forces shot dead the teenager, identified by the Palestinian health ministry as Ahmad Sharake, 13, during clashes near the West Bank city of Ramallah. Medics said dozens of Palestinians were shot and wounded in other clashes across the West Bank. Within hours of Sharake's killing, four Jews were stabbed and wounded in northern Israel, one of them seriously, by an Arab Israeli who rammed them with his car and then lunged at them. And with unrest threatening to spiral into a full-scale intifada, or uprising, a retaliatory Israeli air strike in Gaza overnight killed a pregnant Palestinian woman and her toddler. The violence came on top of more than 10 days of clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and annexed east Jerusalem, as well as a series of Palestinian stabbings of Jews. Gaza was only drawn into the violence on Friday, with clashes along the border since leaving nine Palestinians dead from Israeli fire. Two rockets fired at Israel, one of which hit an open field and the other was intercepted, prompted Israel to carry out an air strike overnight Saturday targeting arms manufacturing facilities of the Islamist movement Hamas. The Israeli strike demolished a house in the northern Gaza area of Zeitun, killing Nur Hassan, 30, and her two-year-old daughter Rahaf. Amid fury over the killings, a spokesman for Hamas which controls the coastal enclave said "this shows the occupation's desire to escalate." "We warn the occupation against continuing this foolishness," said Sami Abu Zuhri. On Sunday, six Palestinians were wounded in clashes with Israeli forces in central and northern Gaza. A military spokeswoman told AFP that soldiers opened fire after hundreds of Palestinians hurled rocks and tried to rupture the border fence with burning tires. The Hamas chief in Gaza, Ismail Haniya, has already branded the spiralling violence between Israel and the Palestinians an intifada and called for further unrest.
Arab Israeli stabbing
Sunday's stabbings near Gan Shmuel kibbutz in northern Israel left a 19-year-old woman in serious condition, as well as moderately wounding a girl, 14, and lightly wounding two men aged 20 and 45. An AFP photographer at the scene said a yellow Fiat used by the assailant, its windshield smashed, was being examined by security forces for possible explosives. The attack was the 15th stabbing of Israelis since October 3, but the first by an Arab Israeli to cause injury -- rather than by Palestinians from east Jerusalem or the West Bank. In a revenge stabbing, a 17-year-old Jew in the southern Israeli city of Dimona wounded two Palestinians and two Arab Israelis on Friday. Earlier Sunday, Israeli security forces said they foiled a major attack when an explosion seriously wounded a Palestinian woman and lightly injured an Israeli policeman at a West Bank checkpoint near Maale Adumim settlement. After a policeman told 31-year-old Israa Jaabis to stop, she shouted "Allah Akbar" (God is greatest) and blew up a gas cylinder in her car, security forces said. Explosives had not previously been used in violence since the start of the month during which the wave of stabbings has sparked fear among Israelis. While Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas have sought to avoid an escalation, frustrated Palestinian youths have defied efforts to restore calm.
'Too many victims'
Rioting has seen Palestinians throwing stones and firebombs at Israeli forces throughout the West Bank, who have responded with live fire, rubber bullets, tear gas and stun grenades. The army said the clash in which teenager Sharake was killed broke out as hundreds of Palestinians near Ramallah attempted to approach a road to throw stones and firebombs at settlers' cars. Near Nablus to the north, 55 Palestinians were wounded by Israeli army live fire, medics said. Heavy clashes also erupted in Beit Umar, southern West Bank, where a Palestinian killed in clashes was buried Sunday, with medics saying eight people were wounded by rubber bullets and four by live fire. Netanyahu has ordered the emergency call-up of 16 reserve border police units to reinforce officers in east Jerusalem and throughout Israel. On Sunday, the cabinet approved a four-year minimum prison term for people convicted of throwing stones at moving cars. With international concern mounting over the violence, French President Francois Hollande's office said: "Everything must be done to... end this cycle which has already caused too many victims."

Palestinian Leaders Seek to Keep Lid on Israel Clashes
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 11/15/Stones or bullets? For now, the Palestinian leadership hopes protesters have learned lessons from the second intifada and stick to the former in clashes with Israeli security forces, officials say. During that uprising, from 2000 to 2005, armed Palestinian security forces confronted the Israelis. But now, as youths clash with soldiers amid fears that this month's unrest will spiral into a new intifada, a Palestinian security official in the occupied West Bank said they were "being vigilant to ensure firearms are not used." On the ground, Palestinian police and intelligence are allowing young people to throw stones, AFP journalists noted. But they are also ensuring that those who join the protests do so without resorting to guns that are widely available, especially in refugee camps. Ramallah, West Bank seat of the Palestinian Authority (PA), learned the lesson of the previous intifada the hard way. A few months after popular protests erupted in 2000, gunfire began to accompany the stones of slingshot users. Israel responded by deploying tanks, reoccupying most of the West Bank, and for the first time since 1967 used warplanes against the Palestinians. It devastated infrastructure in the Palestinian territory and laid siege to the headquarters of then leader Yasser Arafat. Ten years later, it would appear that the Palestinian leadership realizes it has more to lose this time around.
Recourse to arms 'forbidden'
The Palestinians have gained observer status at the United Nations, where on October 1 their flag was raised for the first time in a symbolic gesture as Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas urged the world body to grant them full membership. Palestinian security services spokesman Adnan al-Damiri confirmed to AFP the decision to keep a lid on the latest unrest.The decision was taken "at a political level. A recourse to the use of arms in confrontations between the people and the soldiers of the occupation is forbidden," he said. He said there was a "clear Palestinian strategy to support a popular resistance movement," but not to fan the flames of violence. Abbas, who denounced the militarization of the Palestinian struggle during the second intifada, has said he opposes the same thing happening again and urged the security forces to take the "necessary measures" to ensure this. Essam Bakr, who coordinates 13 Palestinian movements that meet weekly in Ramallah, said they agree with this policy. He said rejecting further militarization was unanimous because it would "give the occupation an excuse to use its tanks and open fire on the Palestinians."The Palestinian leadership's control is limited to the West Bank where it is also highly contested. And it is not allowed to operate in Jerusalem, where much of the trouble is taking place.The PA also has no hold over Israeli Arabs who have staged their own actions in solidarity with the Palestinians.
Hamas wants more unrest
The authority is also at loggerheads with the Islamist movement Hamas and its unchallenged domination over the Gaza Strip, and which has openly called for more unrest. Gaza and the West Bank may be separated by Israeli territory, but both are meant to constitute a future Palestinian state.
Hamas is also active in the West Bank, and Israel has accused a cell of the movement there of being behind the October 1 murder of an Israeli settler couple in front of their children. Hamas hailed the killings, but did not claim them. Until Friday, Gaza and Hamas, which fought a summer war with Israel in 2014, had been largely removed from the current unrest. But since then, nine Palestinians have been shot dead by Israeli soldiers along the border and a pregnant mother and her two-year-old child were killed in an Israeli air strike in response to rocket fire from the enclave. Hamas said on Friday that a third intifada was already under way, and that it would play a part in it. The first intifada lasted from 1987 to 1993. On Sunday, it warned Israel against "foolishness" after the overnight air strike which a Hamas spokesman said "shows the occupation's desire to escalate." Hard-hit by the 2014 war, Hamas may not itself have any interest in things escalating, analysts believe. Which leaves Islamic Jihad, the other Palestinian Islamist movement. Its political leadership recently refused to endorse a video by its armed wing extolling suicide bombings.

Putin Meets Mohammed bin Salman on Syria 'Political Solution'
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 11/15/Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Saudi Arabia's Defense Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Sunday about the possibility of a political solution in Syria, where Moscow has been conducting airstrikes since late September. The two huddled in the southern Russian city of Sochi and were joined by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Energy Minister Alexander Novak. "We have closely cooperated with Saudi Arabia for years on the crisis in Syria," Lavrov told journalists, according to remarks broadcast on television. "The two parties confirmed that Saudi Arabia and Russia have similar objectives when it comes to Syria. Above all, it is to not let a terrorist caliphate take over the country." "After today's talks, we understand better how to move toward a political solution," Lavrov said. Mohammed bin Salman said that Riyadh was worried about Russia's military intervention in Syria, and the country's possible alliance with Iran. He added that Saudi Arabia was in favor of a political solution in Syria, but one which includes the departure of President Bashar Assad, a staunch ally of Moscow. Lavrov also said that Moscow was ready for closer cooperation with Riyadh to make clear that the country was in fact targeting Islamic State, al-Nusra and other terrorist strongholds in Syria. Using modern jets and older Soviet aircraft, Russia has bombed command posts and training camps of what it says are radical "terrorists", backing a ground offensive by the forces of Assad. Moscow has flexed its muscles with the bombing campaign across the war-torn country that has put a U.S.-led coalition in the shade and angered Washington and its allies. Putin said Sunday that the Russian operation's objective was to "stabilize the legitimate authorities and create conditions for finding a political compromise."

French Citizens were in Syria IS Camp Struck by France
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 11/15/French citizens were in the training camp for Islamic State jihadists that was hit by French air strikes last week, the defense ministry said on Sunday. "We targeted a training camp where there were foreign Daesh fighters trained to come and attack us in France," a ministry source said, using another acronym for Islamic State. "Among them, there were French nationals and French speakers. We were targeting foreign fighters, not French nationals in particular."French intelligence learned of the presence of the foreign fighters at the camp by questioning jihadists linked to Syria, the source added. The Journal du Dimanche (JDD) newspaper first reported the presence of "several French citizens" and other francophones among the hundred or so jihadists at the sprawling camp, which lies five kilometers (three miles) southwest of Raqa, the Syrian town widely considered to be IS' center of power. The strikes overnight Thursday were the second time that French jets have targeted IS camps. President Francois Hollande says France is acting in "self-defense" by carrying out air strikes in Syria.French authorities have stepped up efforts to fight radicalization since a series of jihadist attacks by gunmen left 17 dead in January in Paris. France has been named as a priority target by IS militants and several other attacks have been foiled, amid fears that battle-hardened jihadists could return from Iraq or Syria to launch attacks on home soil.

Syria Opposition to Boycott U.N. Talks, Cites Russia Strikes
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 11/15/Syria's key opposition National Coalition said Sunday it would boycott talks proposed by U.N. peace envoy Staffan de Mistura over concerns about his plan and Russia's air strikes in the country. The National Coalition has "decided not to participate in the consultative working groups and considers adherence to the Geneva communique and (U.N.) Security Council resolutions and an end to Russian aggression to be the basis for the resumption of the negotiation process," it said in a statement. The Geneva communique is a document agreed at a peace conference in 2012 that drew up baselines for a Syria peace deal including the formation of a transitional governing body with executive powers.The opposition says President Bashar Assad cannot stay on during any transition period, but the regime says his departure is not on the table.U.N. envoy de Mistura in July proposed the formation of working groups composed of opposition and government representatives to discuss issues including protecting civilians and reconstruction.But the discussions have yet to get off the ground, and the opposition has been disappointed by the consultative nature of the proposal, saying the talks fall short of proper negotiations. The Coalition voted to boycott the talks after several days of meetings in Turkey, where it is based. It slammed the Russian air campaign launched on September 30 saying it was incompatible with Moscow's Security Council membership and role as a party to peace talks in Syria. Russia says its air strikes, which are coordinated with Syria's government, are targeting the Islamic State jihadist group and other "terrorists." But the opposition and its backers say Moscow has focused more on moderate and Islamist rebels rather than jihadists and is trying to shore up Assad's government. "Russia's aggression represents a violation of international law and support for the regime in killing civilians, committing war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity," the Coalition said. The air campaign "undermines the chances of success of any political settlement."The Coalition also criticized de Mistura's plan, saying the formation of a national governing body was being "sidelined" in his proposed working groups. Coalition member Hisham Marwa told AFP that the Russian strikes were the main reason the body had voted to boycott the U.N. talks. "The Syrian people are not in the mood to start such consultations, they need the bombing to stop," he told AFP. "We need a serious reaction from the international community with respect to what Russia is doing in Syria," he added. "People could not accept to go and sit with the regime while the regime and its allies are bombing civilians every day." Marwa also criticized the proposed peace and said the National Coalition felt any talks should begin with the formation of a transitional governing body.

Iraq Claims IS Chief Baghdadi Hit in Air Raid
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 11/15/Iraq claimed Sunday to have struck a convoy carrying Islamic State group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in an air raid near the Syrian border but said his fate was unknown. Iraqi aircraft struck Baghdadi's convoy as it was "moving towards Karabla to attend a meeting of the Daesh (IS) terrorist leaders," an Iraqi security statement said. Karabla lies on the Euphrates barely five kilometers (three miles) from the Syrian border in western Anbar, a vast Iraqi province which has long been a Sunni insurgent stronghold.The statement issued by Iraq's "war media cell" said Baghdadi was "transported in a vehicle" after the strike but added that "his health status was unknown." The meeting place was also struck in the operation and several IS leaders already gathered there were killed and wounded, it said. Interior ministry spokesman Saad Maan told AFP that "the strike was yesterday (Saturday) at noon." In Washington, a U.S. military official said: "We've seen the Iraqi statement about al-Baghdadi but have no info that confirms it."Baghdadi's death would give the war against the most violent jihadist organization in modern history a much-needed boost but Iraqi security sources have made such claims in the past. "It's hard to confirm, there is definitely a psychological war going on between Iraqi intelligence and IS," Iraqi analyst Ihsan al-Shammari said. "But even if they just hit his convoy, that would show a real improvement in the field of intelligence," he said.
Previous claims
Baghdadi's apparent survival following similar claims, including one in November 2014 of a strike in the same area, has only added to his mystique. The Iraqi jihadist chief is said to have been born in the city of Samarra in 1971 but little is known about the man, who has a $10 million U.S. bounty on his head. Baghdadi apparently joined the insurgency that erupted after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, at one point spending time in an American military prison in the country's south. His whereabouts have been the subject of constant speculation since his only public appearance as IS boss last year, at a mosque in the Iraqi city of Mosul days after the proclamation of a cross-border "caliphate." A coalition led by the United States, which occupied Iraq for eight years before withdrawing in 2011, began air strikes against IS in August last year. More than 7,000 strikes later, IS has conceded some of the territory it took last year but has held its ground in other areas and even made fresh conquests, such as the city of Ramadi in Iraq and Palmyra in Syria. Russia joined the fray on September 30, launching an air campaign it said would target IS, but most of its efforts seem focused on protecting Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Taliban Car Bomb Targets British Military Convoy in Kabul
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 11/15/A Taliban suicide car bomber struck a British forces convoy in central Kabul Sunday, triggering a powerful explosion in an attack that comes two weeks after the resurgent militant group overran a key northern city. The rush-hour bombing, which sent a plume of smoke into the sky, wounded at least three civilians including a child, as the Taliban ramp up attacks on government and foreign targets. The intensity of the blast sent an armored vehicle crashing into a sidewalk, its front end badly mangled, and left the area littered with charred pieces of twisted metal. "The incident took place while a suicide car bomber detonated an explosive-packed car in the Joy Shir area... of Kabul city," the interior ministry said. "The target of the attacker were the foreign forces convoy."Security forces cordoned off the area as ambulances with wailing sirens rushed to the scene, but the ministry said the human toll of the blast was limited. "The ministry of interior condemns in the strongest terms the suicide attack which resulted in the wounding of three civilians," it said. The Kabul police said the wounded included a woman and a child. The British defence ministry confirmed that their military convoy came under attack in Kabul but said the explosion was caused by an improvised explosive device. "There were no (British) casualties," it said in a statement. The emboldened insurgents have stepped up attacks around Afghanistan since they launched their annual summer offensive in late April. The Taliban captured the northern city of Kunduz on September 28, their most spectacular victory since being toppled from power in a 2001 U.S.-led invasion. The seizure of the provincial capital for three days was a stinging blow to Western-trained Afghan forces, who have largely been fighting on their own since the end of NATO's combat mission in December.The Taliban said Sunday's bombing was carried out to avenge the recent "barbaric bombardment in Kunduz that martyred our civilians and doctors."
'War Crime'
NATO forces are under fire after a U.S. air strike on October 3 pummeled a hospital in Kunduz run by Doctors Without Borders (MSF), killing at least 12 staff and 10 patients. The medical charity shut down the trauma center, branding the incident a "war crime" and demanding an international investigation into the incident, which sparked an avalanche of global condemnation. The Pentagon announced Saturday it would make compensation payments for those killed or injured in the strike, while suggesting that U.S. forces in Afghanistan could also pay for repairs to the hospital. But MSF Sunday said it had officially not received any compensation offer, adding that it would not accept funds for repairs in line with its policy of rejecting support from governments. "The offer of compensation at this stage cannot preempt the result of present and future investigations, nor preclude any further claims or rights of those affected by the U.S. airstrike," the charity said. "MSF reiterates its call for independent investigation."President Barack Obama has apologized over the strike, with three different investigations -- led by NATO, U.S. forces and Afghan officials -- currently under way. The Afghan government claims to have wrested back control of Kunduz city but sporadic firefights continue with pockets of insurgents as soldiers, backed by NATO special forces, conduct door-to-door clearance operations. As fighting spreads in neighboring Badakhshan, Takhar and Baghlan provinces, concerns are mounting that the seizure of Kunduz was merely the opening gambit in a new, bolder strategy to tighten the insurgency's grip across northern Afghanistan. Most NATO combat troops pulled out of Afghanistan last year but a small contingent focused on training and counter-terrorism operations remains, including roughly 10,000 American soldiers.

Russia Seeks Victory over the West in Syria Campaign
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 11/15/Cruise missiles fired from warships, the latest jets pounding far-off targets: Russian President Vladimir Putin's show of strength in Syria looks aimed at proving that a resurgent Moscow can rival the West, analysts said.Since late September Russia has flexed its muscles in a bombing campaign across the war-torn country that has put a U.S.-led coalition in the shade and angered Washington and its allies. The dramatic military campaign is Moscow's first outside the former USSR since Soviet troops went into Afghanistan in 1979 and has led some to suggest that an emboldened Kremlin is aiming to reassert some of its lost super power status. Using the latest Sukhoi jets and older Soviet aircraft, Russia has blasted command posts and training camps of what it says are radical "terrorists" as it has backed a ground offensive by the forces of its long-standing ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad. The strikes also saw Russian warships in the Caspian Sea fire missiles at targets over 1,500 kilometers away for the first time ever in battle -- a highly symbolic show of strength that has been interpreted as a clear statement. "I cannot judge whether launching air strikes from the Caspian Sea made any sense militarily," political analyst Grigory Mеlamedov wrote. "We showed our strength. To whom? To the Islamists? No. First of all, to the Americans." With the Syrian campaign, Putin has come back in the limelight of international politics after having been snubbed by the West for the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in March 2014. "He [Putin] wasn't planning on living in isolation, on leading an outcast state," said political analyst Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Moscow Center. With more than 70 percent of the Russian population on board with the intervention, the West has questioned the true motives behind the campaign, accusing Moscow of bolstering Assad's beleaguered regime by targeting opposition-held areas.
But quashing the Islamic State and other extremist groups, the stated objective of Russia’s campaign, is partly a broader attempt to compete with -- and even intimidate -- the West, analysts said. "Rather than being primarily about Syria, or primarily about ISIS, this dispute is about a global principle," Matthew Rojansky, the director of the Washington-based Kennan Institute, told AFP. "The dispute has gone beyond the level of diplomatic maneuvering and economic pressure. It has now gotten to the point of using military assets to make a point." But Russia’s demonstration of military strength comes when the country is profoundly weakened by an economic crisis spurred by low oil prices and Western sanctions, with analysts warning that costly attempts at regaining international prestige could prove catastrophic. The Kremlin has kept the army high on its agenda in spite of economic woes, with a record-high 3.29 trillion rubles ($53 billion at the current exchange rate) defense budget this year, a figure that corresponds to more than four percent of the country’s GDP. Analysts said a long Syrian campaign could cause more economic turmoil for Moscow, a risk authorities and the population are ready to take -- but only for a triumph on the international stage. "The [Russian] people will not tolerate economic hardship for the sake of a war against ISIS, but it will for a victory over the West," Mеlamedov wrote. Russia’s attempts to reassert its status as a world super power has highlighted divisions in the Middle East, as many Arab countries have condemned Moscow’s campaign. "Sunnis want Russia to get out of there [Syria], but Shiites want Russia to stay," Baunov said, adding that Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and pro-government forces in Syria supported the Kremlin.
Political analyst Vasily Kashin said that the "inevitable consequence" of Russia's Syrian campaign was the deterioration of its relations with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, all part of a U.S.-led coalition conducting a separate bombing campaign in Syria. Russia and Turkey have exchanged barbs since Moscow launched the air strikes and twice violated Ankara’s air space, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warning Moscow could lose a deal to build the country's first nuclear power plant and its status as his country’s main gas supplier. Analysts dismissed the possibility Russia's campaign in Syria would jeopardize its relations with the West's Middle Eastern allies in the long-term. "It's not zero-sum and it's not black and white," Rojansky said. "It's not that because of this, the Saudis will never talk to the Russians again. They have loads of common interests, similarly with Turkey."

Analysis: The limits of Iranian power
Jonathan Spyer/J.Post/October 11/15
While regional news remains dominated by the dramatic events under way in Syria, further south and east important developments are taking place in one of the more neglected arenas of the regional struggle – Yemen. Events in Yemen are noteworthy because they counter the notion that as a result of the Obama administration’s exit from the region and in the wake of the nuclear agreement, an unstoppable Iranian advance across the Middle East is inevitable. In Yemen, what is taking place is the halting of an Iranian client by forces supported by the Arab Gulf states, most importantly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The Iran-supported Ansar Allah movement, more popularly known as the Houthis, seized control of the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, in March. The government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi was forced into exile in Saudi Arabia. The Houthis and their allies then began a march to the south, intending to seize the Gulf of Aden and unite the country under their control.
Preventing this was a matter of strategic importance for the opponents of the Houthis and of their Iranian backers. Control of southwest Yemen would have given the Houthis (and hence the Iranians) the ability to choke off energy supplies making their way from the Persian Gulf to the Suez Canal via the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Saudi and Emirati assistance to Yemeni government forces seeking to prevent this outcome began on March 26. Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain also joined the coalition against the Houthis. These countries provided air support to government forces.
The Houthi offensive, in which the Zaidi Shi’a tribesmen were supported by military elements loyal to the ousted dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh, stalled in the face of Saudi-supported resistance. The Houthis came close to capturing Aden City in late March. But that was the furthest point of their advance.
In the course of the summer, Saudi- and UAE-supported forces succeeded in driving the Houthis out of Aden, enabling Hadi to return to the city. As of now, after the death of around 4,900 people in the conflict, the Houthis have agreed to adhere to a seven-point plan brokered by the UN at talks in Muscat, Oman. The plan includes a cease-fire and the return of the government to Sanaa.
It is not yet clear if the cease-fire will be implemented, and skepticism is justified. But if the reports are correct, the Houthi declaration follows a series of defeats they have suffered at the hands of the Saudi- led coalition in recent weeks. Coalition forces recently secured the Bab el-Mandeb area and also captured the strategic Marib Dam in Marib province, held by the Houthis since the spring. Saudi-supported forces are poised to begin an assault on Taiz province, one of the last remaining strongholds of the Houthis in the south of the country. The largely ignored events in Yemen reflect the reality of an ongoing Saudi-Iranian contest, which itself forms part of the broader Sunni-Shi’a conflict currently bisecting the Middle East. Success in restoring the Hadi government in Yemen, if it takes place, will be a major boost to the Saudis, who fear being encircled by pro-Iranian forces, given Iranian influence in Iraq and Yemen.
Other than the strategic issue of control of Bab el-Mandeb, why should events in Yemen matter outside of its immediate environs? They matter for the following reason:
In the series of Saudi-Iranian proxy wars taking place across the region, the Iranians appeared to enjoy a clear advantage. Iran being a revolutionary republic, possessing an instrument specifically designed for the establishment and promotion of proxy political-military organizations (the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards), their ascendancy seemed assured. Many rightly fear that once the Iranians begin to receive sanctions relief following the conclusion of the agreement on their nuclear program, they will be free to continue and increase their support for the long list of regional proxies they maintain.
But in Yemen, the Saudis appear to have held an Iranian proxy to a draw. The Houthis are not destroyed, but their victory and serious strategic gains for the Iranians have been prevented.
This process fits into a larger picture, in which Iranian interference – in Yemen, in Syria, in Iraq – appears more usually to lead to the division of countries and ongoing civil war rather than to a clear Iranian triumph. Only in tiny Lebanon can an Iranian proxy (Hezbollah) be said to have established a position of acknowledged military superiority. But even there, Hezbollah does not seek to rule alone.
Thus, Iran finds itself in a position of involvement in a whole series of conflicts in the Middle East, supporting powerful players, while prevailing as yet in none. Events in Yemen this week offer further proof that any notion of an Iranian juggernaut sweeping over the Middle East as a result of US withdrawal from it is exaggerated. The Iranians and their allies are powerful regional players, but inbuilt limitations are likely to prevent them from achieving the regional hegemony they dream of. Iranian regional machinations are set to continue exacerbating strife and division across the region, but without clear victories for Tehran.

Germany: Migrant Crime Wave, Police Capitulate
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/October 11, 2015
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6668/germany-migrant-crime-wave
According to a classified document, the German government now estimates that Germany will receive as many as 1.5 million asylum seekers in 2015, including 920,000 in the last quarter of 2015 alone. With family reunifications, the actual number of asylum seekers could swell to more than 7 million. Separately, German authorities now estimate that at least 290,000 migrants and refugees have entered the country without being registered.
"The behavior of these highly delinquent youths towards police officers can be characterized as aggressive, disrespectful and condescending. ... When they are arrested, they resist and assault [police officers]. The youths have no respect for state institutions." — Confidential report, leaked to Die Welt.
In Berlin, a classified police report revealed that a dozen Arab clans hold reign over the city's criminal underworld. The report says the clans, which are dedicated to dealing drugs, robbing banks and burglarizing department stores, run a "parallel justice system" in which they resolve disputes among themselves with mediators from other crime families. If the state gets involved, the clans use cash payments or threats of violence to influence witnesses.
"For years the policy has been to leave the population in the dark about the actual crime situation... The citizens are being played for fools." — André Schulz, head of the Association of Criminal Police.
According to the President of the German Police Union, "In Berlin or in the north of Duisburg there are neighborhoods where colleagues hardly dare to stop a car — because they know that they'll be surrounded by 40 or 50 men." These attacks amount to a "deliberate challenge to the authority of the state — attacks in which the perpetrators are expressing their contempt for our society."
Asylum seekers are driving a surge in violent crime in cities and towns across Germany. German authorities, however, are downplaying the lawlessness, apparently to avoid fueling anti-immigration sentiment.
A confidential police report leaked to a German newspaper reveals that a record-breaking 38,000 asylum seekers were accused of committing crimes in the country in 2014. Analysts believe this figure — which works out to more than 100 a day — is only the tip of the iceberg, as many crimes are either not resolved or not reported.
The current spike in crime — including rapes, sexual and physical assaults, stabbings, home invasions, robberies, burglaries and drug trafficking — comes amid a record-breaking influx of refugees from Africa, Asia, the Middle East and the Western Balkans.
According to a classified document obtained by the German newspaper, Bild, the government now estimates that Germany will receive as many as 1.5 million asylum seekers in 2015, including 920,000 in the last quarter of 2015 alone. This figure is nearly double the previous estimate, from August, which was 800,000 for all of 2015. By comparison, Germany received 202,000 asylum seekers in all of 2014.
The document warns that with family reunifications, the actual number of asylum seekers could swell to more than seven million, based on the assumption that individuals whose applications are approved will bring between four and eight additional family members to Germany.
Separately, German authorities now estimate that at least 290,000 migrants and refugees have entered the country without being registered and whose whereabouts are unknown.
According to the latest UN figures, of the 579,617 refugees/migrants who have entered the EU by sea so far this year, 69% have been adult men. Above, some of the hundreds of migrants who arrived in Munich on September 12, 2015.
With more than 10,000 new migrants entering Germany every day, observers warn that crime in the country is sure to snowball. Experts say that many of the migrants will never be integrated into German society because they lack even the most basic skills to find work in the country. Some are warning of the establishment of parallel societies across Germany in which shiftless migrants are sustained by a volatile mix of taxpayer-funded social welfare handouts and crime.
Migrants are becoming increasingly unruly in their disrespect for German law. On September 11, for example, two asylum seekers from Libya attempted to shoplift items from a Netto-Markt grocery store in Freiberg, a town in the state of Saxony. After the men were caught with the merchandise by a security guard, they became violent and managed to escape.
A short while later, the men returned to the store with a machete and pepper spray, and began threatening the employees. When police arrived at the scene, the men attacked the officers, who fired warning shots into the air. One of the migrants was arrested; the other escaped.
Within hours, the detained man — a 27-year-old being housed at taxpayer expense in a refugee shelter in Freiberg — was released without charge. The next morning, the two men returned to the grocery store, pulled a knife and threatened to behead the employees.
According to local media, public prosecutors instructed police to release the men because they did not use force during the initial act of shoplifting. "The deeds could not be classified under the offense of robbery or predatory theft because the accused did not use violence or the threat of violence to carry out their act," a spokesperson said. In any event, he added, the men do not need to be detained because, as asylum seekers, they do not pose a significant risk of flight from justice.
Freiberg Mayor Sven Krüger, of the center-left Social Democrats, publicly denounced the judicial inaction. "Words fail me," he said. "I have no comprehension of our justice system; it released the offender. Yesterday he threatened employees and police. We cannot protect our citizens in this way, and the work of the police is wasted effort."
Local media report that the incident at the Netto-Markt is not an isolated event: that acts of shoplifting committed by migrants are becoming a fact of daily life in Freiberg, and the shoplifters seldom face consequences.
In early September, a supermarket cashier in the town was punched in the face by migrants after she tried to stop a brawl between asylum seekers inside her store. The manager of another store said that he has been verbally abused and spat at by migrants, and has been forced to hire a private security service to reduce losses from shoplifting by migrants.
In Hamburg, the second-largest city in Germany, police say they are helpless to confront a spike in crimes committed by young migrants from North Africa. Hamburg is now home to more than 1,000 so-called unaccompanied minor migrants (minderjährige unbegleitete Flüchtlinge, MUFL), most of whom live on the streets and apparently engage in all manner of criminal acts.
A confidential report, leaked to the German newspaper, Die Welt, reveals that Hamburg police have effectively capitulated to the migrant youths, who outnumber and overwhelm them. The document states:
"Even the smallest issue can quickly lead to aggressive offensive and defensive behavior. The youths come together in groups to stand up for each other and also to fight each other...
"When dealing with others, the youths are often irreverent and show a lack of respect for local values and norms. The youths congregate mainly in the downtown area, where they can be seen almost every day. During the daytime, they hang out mostly in the St. George district, but in the evenings they carry out their activities in the Binnenalster, Flora- and Sternschanzenpark and St. Pauli [all across central Hamburg]. They usually appear in groups; up to 30 youths have been observed on weekend nights in St. Pauli. The behavior of these highly delinquent youths towards police officers can be characterized as aggressive, disrespectful and condescending. They are signaling that they are indifferent to police measures...
"The youths quickly become conspicuous, mainly in the domains of pickpocketing or street robbery. They also break into homes and vehicles, but the crimes are often reported as trespassing or vandalism because the youths are just looking for a place to sleep. Shoplifting for obtaining food is commonplace. When they are arrested, they resist and assault [the police officers]. The youths have no respect for state institutions."
The paper reports that German authorities are reluctant to deport the youths back to their countries of origin because they are minors. As a result, as more unaccompanied minors arrive in Hamburg each day, the crime problem not only persists, but continues to grow.
Meanwhile, in a bid to save the city's tourism industry, Hamburg police have launched a crackdown on purse-snatchers. More than 20,000 purses — roughly 55 a day — are stolen in the city each year. According to Norman Großmann, the director of the federal police inspector's office in Hamburg, 90% of the purses are stolen by males between the ages of 20 and 30 who come from North Africa or the Balkans.
In Stuttgart, police are fighting a losing battle against hundreds of asylum seekers from Gambia who are openly trafficking drugs on the city's streets. At the same time, migrant gangs from North Africa are dedicated to the fine art of pickpocketing. Police say that one out of four migrants housed at a refugee shelter in nearby Remstal have been accused of theft.
In Dresden, migrants from Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have effectively taken control over the iconic Wiener Platz, a large public square in front of the central train station. There they sell drugs and pickpocket passersby, usually with impunity. Police raids on the square have become a game of whack-a-mole, with a never-ending number of migrants replacing those who have been arrested.
A local newspaper editorial expressed shock at the state of affairs in downtown Dresden:
"The central train station is normally a city's business card, at the same time it is also a magnet for dubious activities...
"But a visit to the site yesterday leaves one shuddering: desperate businesses, intimidated employees, shocked passersby — dealers selling their drugs in front of their eyes. This has created a climate of fear — and it must be swiftly countered.
"It cannot be that a gang of young men lays claim to an entire area to operate their illegal business. The Wiener Platz is a major entry point to Dresden.... Thousands of people — commuters and tourists — walk along there every day. They should be able to feel safe...
In Berlin, a classified police report leaked to the German newspaper, Bild, revealed that a dozen Arab clans hold reign over the city's criminal underworld. The report says the clans, which are dedicated to dealing drugs, robbing banks and burglarizing department stores, run a "parallel justice system" in which they resolve disputes among themselves with mediators from other crime families. If the German state gets involved, the clans use cash payments or threats of violence to influence witnesses.
Separately, a politically incorrect police report leaked to the German newspaper, Der Tagesspiegel, revealed that more than 80% of the violent crimes registered in Berlin are committed by non-Germans.
At the same time, thousands of police officers in Berlin are no longer being allowed to carry guns because of cuts to the budget for mandatory firearms training.
In Duisburg, spiraling levels of violent crime perpetrated by immigrants from the Middle East and the Balkans are turning parts the city into "areas of lawlessness" — areas that are becoming de facto "no-go" zones for police, according to a confidential police report leaked to the German newsmagazine, Der Spiegel.
Duisburg, a key industrial city that has a total population of around 500,000, is home to an estimated 60,000 Muslims, mostly from Turkey. This total makes it one of the most Islamized cities in Germany. In recent years, however, thousands of Bulgarians and Romanians (including Sinti and Roma "gypsies") have flocked to Duisburg. This combination has been creating a volatile ethno-religious cauldron.
According to Der Spiegel:
"There are districts where immigrant gangs are taking over entire metro trains for themselves. Native residents and business people are being intimidated and silenced. People taking trams during the evening and nighttime describe their experiences as 'living nightmares.' Policemen, and especially policewomen, are subject to 'high levels of aggressiveness and disrespect.'
"In the medium term, nothing will change, according to the report. The reasons for this: the high rate of unemployment, the lack of job prospects for immigrants without qualifications for the German labor market and ethnic tensions among migrants. The Duisburg police department now wants to reinforce its presence on the streets and track offenders more consistently.
"Experts have warned for some time that problem neighborhoods could become no-go areas. The president of the German Police Union, Rainer Wendt, told Spiegel Online years ago: 'In Berlin or in the north of Duisburg there are neighborhoods where colleagues hardly dare to stop a car — because they know that they'll be surrounded by 40 or 50 men.' These attacks amount to a 'deliberate challenge to the authority of the state — attacks in which the perpetrators are expressing their contempt for our society.'"
The steady flow of leaked police reports seems to indicate that police are losing patience with the state-sponsored multicultural policies that are making Germany increasingly more unsafe.
German authorities have repeatedly been accused of underreporting the true scale of the crime problem in the country. For example, according to the head of the association of criminal police (Bund Deutscher Kriminalbeamter, BDK), André Schulz, up to 90% of the sex crimes committed in Germany in 2014 do not appear in the official statistics. He said:
"For years the policy has been to leave the [German] population in the dark about the actual crime situation... The citizens are being played for fools. Rather than tell the truth, they [government officials] are evading responsibility and passing blame onto the citizens and the police."
Schultz also warned that, based on past experience, fully 10% of the migrant population will end up being involved in criminal activity, including theft, assault or drugs. This implies that with the massive influx of migrants in 2015, Germany is effectively importing 100,000 additional criminals into the country.
Meanwhile, crime reports use all manner of politically correct euphemisms to describe foreign suspects without using the terms "migrant" or "Muslim migrant."
On October 7, for example, an 86-year-old woman had her purse stolen by a man with "dark hair" (dunklen Haaren) in Bad Urach. Also on October 7, three "southerners" (Südländer) robbed a clothing store in Fellbach.
On October 6, an 89-year-old woman in Darmstadt was robbed by two men who spoke German with an "Eastern European accent" (osteuropäischem Akzent). On October 5, a 72-year-old man was robbed by three people with a "brownish skin" (bräunliche Haut) in Stuttgart.
On October 2, a 64-year-old woman had her purse stolen by two women with "black hair" (schwarze Haare) in Gießen. On October 1, a 24-year-old man was robbed at knifepoint by two "dark skinned" (dunkelhäutig) men in Wiesloch.
On September 11, a 16-year-old girl was raped by a man with "a dark skin type" (dunklem Hauttyp) close to a refugee shelter in the Bavarian town of Mering. On August 30, a 21-year-old man was robbed by two men speaking "broken German" (gebrochenem Deutsch) in Karlsruhe.
On August 30, a 24-year-old man was assaulted by a man with a "southern appearance" (südländischem Aussehen) at a gas station in Ludwigsburg. On August 30, a 33-year-old man was attacked with pepper spray and robbed by two men with a "southern appearance" (südländisches Erscheinungsbild) in Stuttgart. On August 29, four Germans were assaulted by a man with "short dark hair, dark eyes, southern appearance" (südländisches Aussehen) in Überlingen, a city on the northern shore of Lake Constance.
On August 29, a 21-year-old man was robbed by two men with "brown skin color" (braune Hautfarbe) in Heidelberg. On August 28, a woman with "long black hair" (schwarzen langen Haaren) stole 1,000 euros from a 95-year-old man and a 93-year-old woman in Sigmaringen, a town in Baden-Württemberg.
On June 5, a 30-year-old Somali asylum seeker called "Ali S" was sentenced to four years and nine months in prison for attempting to rape a 20-year-old woman in Munich. Ali had previously served a seven-year sentence for rape, and had been out of prison for only five months before he attacked again. In an effort to protect the identity of Ali S, the newspaper, Münchner Abendzeitung, referred to him by the more politically correct "Joseph T."
In a book titled, "The End of Security: Why the Police Can No Longer Protect Us," author Franz Solms-Laubach writes that German police are becoming increasingly demoralized in the face of spiraling crime. He blames German policymakers for budget cuts and staff reductions that are making it impossible for the police to do their job, namely to protect German citizens and their property.
According to Solms-Laubach, non-Germans make up roughly 10% of the German population, but they commit more than 25% of the crimes. The only solution, he argues, is that migrants must understand that if they commit crimes in Germany, they will be deported.
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. He is also Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group. Follow him on Facebook and on Twitter. His first book, Global Fire, will be out in early 2016.

Confronting Russia now is too late, too difficult
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/October 11/15
Recent American press reports are full of opinions stating that the current American administration's way of dealing with the Syrian crisis has been wrong since the beginning. Most of these opinions believe that America’s absence brought ISIS, Hezbollah and the Iranians and Russians to Syria.
Dennis Ross, who was a special assistant to President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2011, commented on Obama's motives regarding Syria in a recently published article in the Washington Post and said that "Obama has been consistent on Syria," adding: "Even when I was in the administration, the president made clear that he did not want to get dragged into the conflict there."The fear of war was also a motive for Gulf countries. However, after the Arab Spring revolutions erupted, Gulf countries realized that not intervening expands any threats against them and increases chances of chaos in the region; chaos meaning the spread of terrorism which leads to an increased influx of refugees. Ross thinks it's possible to benefit from the game rules by going to the Turks, Saudis and Qataris to create a safe haven for refugees along the ¬Turkish-Syrian border - a haven which the Europeans protect by air force, the Turks protect on ground and the Gulf countries finance. However, isn't it too late for such a suggestion? Isn't there lots of doubt now in the American administration? And what's the next step after five million Syrian refugees flee to this safe haven?
A comfortable policy
It's been clear that the Obama administration does not want to get involved in the region ever since it insisted to exit Iraq and not to intervene in the Syrian and Libyan crises. Theoretically speaking, it is a comfortable policy to simply stay away; however, this policy proved to be a costly option for a superpower with major interests across the world. The war is expanding and is almost spinning out of control. If we go back four years ago, who would've thought that the most advanced Russian SU34 warplanes and American F-16 fighter jets will compete in Syrian skies in a worrying scene, which the world has seen nothing like since the end of the Cold War?
Turn back time
What if we can go back in time and ask: What could've been done to avoid the current threats? I think that even the worst of options back then, in 2011 and 2012, would've been a lot better than the current situation. The worst of options would've been intervening in Syria before the Iranians, Hezbollah and, most recently, the Russians arrived in Syria. What encouraged these parties to militarily enter Syria and Iraq is their realization that Washington never intends to fight or support the opposition and that it even adopted a policy that prevents supplying fighters with arms - a policy that was never implemented on the Assad regime that has used all sorts of weapons - from barrel bombs to chemical weapons!Trust is now broken between Washington and its allies in the Middle East.
I am not saying Washington should've opted for direct military intervention but it would've been enough if it had sponsored the plans of its allies, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, by supporting a political and military solution via the moderate opposition to achieve partial change in Damascus. These countries were willing to finance this plan when the oil price was higher than $100. However, Syria has today become the biggest battlefield for militias and political parties. Meanwhile, U.S. allies have no additional financial resources due to the decline in oil prices and these countries have also lost trust in the U.S. due to the latter's truce with Iran in exchange of sealing the nuclear deal.
Carrot and the stick
In the meantime, Iran has invested in President Obama's aversion to wars in order to serve its own hostile policy. It increased its military involvement in Syria and tightened its grip on governance in Iraq. It resorted to the carrot and the stick approach in which the carrot is the nuclear agreement, and it seems that this approach increased the White House's policy to avoid confrontation in Iraq and Syria and thus leave the arena for the battling parties while getting preoccupied with negotiating a reconciliation with Iran. The region's other countries believe that not intervening is actually a policy on its own - a policy that has repercussions which may be dangerous. With no deterrents, Iran went ahead and widened its military intervention. This forced countries friendly to Washington to confront Iranian intervention in Bahrain, Syria and Yemen on their own in order to maintain their security and the balance of the region. The struggle thus expanded and the Russians have now entered the military arena.
If Washington had interfered from the beginning, would it have been possible to avoid all this bloodshed, chaos and international confrontation? I don't know, but there were good chances of controlling the situation in Syria in the past when the majority of the opposition was patriotic and not religious and when Iran hadn't begun sending its agents as hired militias to fight alongside the Syrian regime. We can say the same for Yemen. If Saudi Arabia hadn't intervened in Yemen, the Saudi-Iranian confrontation would've been inevitable and on a larger scale. For now, to confront the Russians and the Iranians in Iraq and Syria, a safe haven for refugees is not enough unless it's accompanied with a military plan. In order for Washington to make the Iranian and Russian invaders pay a high price and force them to retreat, it will have to form some sort of front consisting of multiple forces. The problem is that this "price" will first be costly on Washington and its allies. In the past, Washington's allies were willing to take part in its wars. They supported Washington in Afghanistan and helped in some of the former's battles in Iraq. They also pursued al-Qaeda and supported Washington in besieging Iran on the economic and financial levels. Today however, the most difficult mission which the White House will face is not convincing Russia to exit Syria but to convince its own allies in the Middle East to take part in any plan. Trust is now broken between Washington and its allies in the Middle East, and restoring it will require great effort.

Sheikh Mohammad’s ‘Marshal Plan’ maybe the region’s last chance
Faisal J. Abbas/Al Arabiya/October 11/15
I hate to sound pessimistic, but the Arab world’s increasingly disastrous status leaves very little room for positivity. After all, what else could be said of the devastating wars tearing apart Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen, a humiliating occupation in Palestine, severe divisions and intense corruption and unrest in Lebanon, Egypt and Sudan?Obviously, such a situation doesn’t come without its own aftermath; the catastrophe in Syria alone has produced 12 million refugees who – let’s admit it – are unlikely to ever stand a chance to go back home in the near future. (According to former U.N. Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie Amos, a displaced person will remain displaced for 17 years on average.) On top of this, the sharp decline in oil prices has resulted in the introduction of austerity measures and subsidies being cut in the wealthier, more stable Gulf countries. While most GCC states are still in a relatively good situation, thanks to numerous foreign investments, economic diversification and massive reserves put aside when oil prices were at their peak, many are – for the first time – having to deal with new realities, such as unsubsidized petrol and meat prices. Furthermore, the region is also plagued with high illiteracy and unemployment rates mainly due to decades of corruption and bad governance. Infographic: Illiteracy rates in Arab world. (Design by Farwa Rizwan/ Al Arabiya)
Then you have the issue of terrorism and violent extremism (which naturally flourishes in turbulent environments, such as the ones described above). Albeit a global phenomenon, our region is suffering the most and in recent years, we have been faced by a new reality on the ground: a “wannabe” state on our borders founded by a terrorist group known as ISIS. Established on occupied lands in Syria and Iraq, ISIS almost has all the vital signs of a real country; its own army, currency, laws and propaganda machine and is somehow able to sell oil (from fields it took by force) and buy weapons.
Obviously, whatever perks ISIS enjoys today is a natural outcome of a global failure in dealing with its threats and causes (mainly the tyranny of the Assad regime). At the core of this international failure is a reclusive and non-interventionist U.S. foreign policy seen since the Obama administration took office in 2009.Needless to say, the vacuum left by America was quickly filled by Iran (which now boasts the occupation of four Arab capitals) and more recently, by Russia which is now enjoying its biggest ever presence in the Arab World since President Sadat of Egypt expelled the Soviet military advisors in 1972.
A beacon of hope
So is it a hopeless case for the Arab World? Not really, modern history has seen many successful resurgences; Japan, South Korea and the BRICS are good examples of what can be achieved in just a matter of decades. However, in all of the above cases, there were several similarities which identified the road to success, mainly: 1) A clear definition of the problems that needed to be addressed and 2) Leaders who were determined to do whatever it takes to overcome these problems. As such, our region could arguably surpass most of its issues if these two conditions for success were met and last week, Dubai witnessed a major announcement which may very well be the first step on a long road to recovery for the whole region. Aiming to help nearly 130 million people by 2025, the Mohammad bin Rashid Al Maktoum Global Initiatives was unveiled by HH Sheikh Mohammad in an attempt to bring together the work of 28 organizations under one umbrella, as well as coordinate the efforts of 1400 human development programs in more than 116 countries.
Once the combined targets are met, the four pillars which comprise Sheikh Mohammad’s plan can form a long-term regional remedy and a road-map to pan-Arab prosperity, and not just serve as a pacifier to help overcome current woes. What is definitely note-worthy is the four areas the new foundation chose to focus on: Fighting poverty dissemination of knowledge, community empowerment and innovation for the future. Once the combined targets are met, the four pillars which comprise Sheikh Mohammad’s plan can form a long-term regional remedy and a road-map to pan-Arab prosperity, and not just serve as a pacifier to help overcome current woes. Also note-worthy is the emphasis on the Arab World, a matter which was further confirmed in a statement by UAE Minister of Cabinet Mohammad al-Gergawi. "The circumstances which the (Arab) region is going through calls for immediate action, albeit our direction will always be that we will always aim to help people of all races and all religions without any discrimination," Gergawi said.
Already stalling behind in many key areas, the bulk of the Arab world is in desperate need for development and a “Marshal Plan” to bring it back to its feet. Again, while hoping not to sound pessimistic, one must emphasize that Sheikh Mohammad’s initiative may very well be region’s last chance to catch up with the rest of the world and safeguard a better future for the generations to come. The new organization is called Mohammed bin Rashid Global Initiatives. (Faisal J. Abbas/ Al Arabiya). However, for Sheikh Mohammad’s “Marshal Plan” to work, benefiting nations and people must acknowledge their problems and commit to doing what it takes to help resolve them. As such, shameful malpractices - such as stealing from foreign aid intended to help refugees - must stop. For his part, Sheikh Mohammad acknowledges this is not going to be an easy task, nevertheless he seems ready and excited to accept the challenge.
“The mission is big… but the determination is bigger” he said at the conclusion of last week’s announcement. Interestingly, it seems to me that I was destined to be the first beneficiary of this new initiative… I say this because a quote by Mohammad bin Rashid is one of the scarce ways one could end a column about the Arab world on a positive note!

There is nothing glamorous about ‘Migrant Chic’
Yara al-Wazir/Al Arabiya/October 11/15
This week, Hungarian photographer Norbert Baksa disrespected refugees by photographing fresh-faced models taking selfies along barbed wire. After sparking outrage on Twitter, Baksa removed the photo series from his website, but the photographs can still be viewed online.The installation was labelled ‘Des Migrant,’ or ‘migrant chic.’ However, there is nothing chic about being a migrant, about walking hundreds of kilometers across borders while fearing for your life.
Universal language
Photography is one of the primary reasons behind the recent European attention given to the refugee crisis. The photographs of Syrian toddler Aylan Kurdi washed up on a Turkish shore finally humanized the situation. Photographs of refugee camps are powerful and heart-breaking. The world does not need studio-built refugee camps, skinny models and staged shots to raise awareness. If anything, they dehumanize the situation. there is nothing chic about being a migrant, about walking hundreds of kilometers across borders while fearing for your life. Photography is an international language, and photographers need to continue highlighting human suffering. This comes through being on the ground to document the situation, whether from the photographer’s point of view or the victim’s. Instead of creating art about refugees, they can be given the opportunity to create art themselves. This raises awareness of their plight, and is a recognized form of therapy. Three-dimensional installations are also valid forms of raising awareness, so long as they do not mock the situation. This is what British street artist Banksy did through his installation Dismaland, which brought together more than 100 artists, some of them refugees, to create political art. Tickets sold out within minutes. Afterward, the artists decided to turn the installations into refugee camps in France.

Forging the future of the Arab world
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/October 11/15
It is time to take a lead in shaping the future of the Arab world.
For too long, there has been a sense of frustration and resignation among even the brightest, young and old, when it comes to reversing the untenable status quo in the region. It is for this reason that I started developing the Beirut Institute in 2010. I was pained by the sense of disillusionment in the region – something manifested in either nonchalance or complaint. We have organized this timely and imperative summit to take the lead in contemplating the future of the Arab region. With the advent of 2011, the Arab region experienced a renewed impetus for change. And now, more than ever, we need to step up. We will no longer be idle bystanders; we will repeal past patterns of submission and resignation and replace them with ambition and enthusiasm to engage among ourselves and with the wider world.
Sustainable impact
The foundations for the Beirut Institute have taken shape with the help of brilliant firms and strategists, who understood the value of a cutting-edge Arab think tank that is indigenous, forward looking, solution-driven and intent on achieving a sustainable impact on local and global policy.
Independent and non-partisan, with activities and events in multiple locations across the Arab world and globally, the Beirut Institute will be a catalyst for inter-generational, innovative, solution-oriented thinking for current and future policy opportunities and challenges affecting the region and its place in the world. Designed as a collective of expertise, the Beirut Institute will provide a dynamic platform for enlightened thinkers to shape the debate and develop influential strategies pertaining to global policy, governance, innovation, women, youth aspirations and education, to name a few. The Beirut Institute will not dwell on failures or handicaps. Instead, our task is to think of innovative solutions to the current challenges and to devise strategies for future opportunities. We will not simply settle in predictions; we will instead take on the challenge of thinking thoroughly through all options and means. Collective brilliance and passion, coupled with persistence and resilience, can enhance Arab discourse towards moderation locally, and place Arabs on the map as effective and influential players globally. Beirut Institute will achieve this through strategic partnerships with like-minded institutions globally, and intends on becoming a pivotal destination for those interested in transforming the Arab region and its relations with East and West.
Abu Dhabi summit
All the building blocks are in place. While sustaining the Institute is ultimately dependent on securing the necessary funds, the official inauguration of the Beirut Institute will take place in early spring, in Lebanon. Before that, today marks the start of the Beirut Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi, entitled ‘Reconfiguring the Arab Region and its Global Space beyond Political Economy and Security Threats’.Arab and international leaders will offer their intellectual input on transformations that the region is undergoing, with the two-day summit ending with The Beirut Institute Abu Dhabi Declaration. That declaration will relay policy options and recommendations generated during the summit to decision-makers in the region and beyond.We have organized this timely and imperative summit to take the lead in contemplating the future of the Arab region – a region that is undergoing rapid and historic change. Interactive open plenary sessions will discuss critical matters of transformation occurring in the region. This two-day summit has the potential to crystallize ideas, aspirations and the needs of the Arab region. For there is a great deal we can learn from one another – and a great deal we can achieve together.

Why is the “right war” taking a wrong turn?
Amir Taheri/Asharq Alawsat/October 11/15
Only a few months ago US Secretary of State John Kerry was trying to promote Afghanistan as a foreign policy success for the Obama administration. Barack Obama’s plan to complete US military withdrawal was near completion and there was even talk of establishing “dialogue” with the Taliban with Qatari mediation. Earlier this month, however, a mini-wave of panic hit the White House with news of Taliban capturing Kunduz, Afghanistan’s sixth largest city as the US-trained Afghan army fled without a fight. It was a humiliating defeat for the 7,000-man Kunduz garrison who left behind their shiny new American weapons for the 1,000-man Taliban force. The US-led NATO force still in Afghanistan had to scrape the bottom of the barrel to collect a few thousand men and a dozen or so warplanes to launch a counter attack in Kunduz, managing to regain control of parts of the city after a week of fighting.
However, the Taliban had made the points they had meant to make.They showed that, thanks to the Obama-led retreat, President Ashraf Ghani and his NATO allies are in no position to defend every bit of Afghan territory. To counterattack in Kunduz they had to withdraw forces in Mazar-i-Sharif and Badakhshan where the Taliban seized the opportunity to capture the governorate of Vardouj and 13 other strategic villages close to the border with Tajikistan. The Taliban are already strongly present in several provinces notably Farah, Nimruz, Helmand, Kandahar, Paktita and Uruzgan where the central government is present only in major cities. But even then, the Taliban make a point of entering the cities every now and then, even if only for a few days, to show the flag, terrorize the pro-government elements and do a bit of looting before leaving. Last summer they did just that in Musa Qala, on the Pakistani border, and Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital of Helmand. They also carried out a spectacular, though ultimately fruitless, attack on Achin, a major Afghan army base in Nangarhar. Another major looting operation was conducted in the northern district of Tirgaran, with Taliban looting stocks of food and modern US-supplied weapons.
So, why are the Taliban back on the offensive at this time? The attack on Kunduz may have been planned to coincide with the 90th anniversary of the creation of Afghanistan as an independent nation. The Taliban do not recognize nation-states; for them the Islamic ummah is a single reality, and it is faith, not nationality, which establishes a person’s identity. The founder and first leader of the Taliban Mullah Muhammad Omar designated himself as Amir Al-Mu’minin (Commander of the Faithful). His successor Mullah Muhammad Akhtar Mansour, who took over last spring, has not yet adopted that title. He calls himself Amir Al-Jihad (Commander of the Jihad), thus emphasizing the military rather than the political aspect of Taliban’s new bid for power. The second reason for heightened activism by the Taliban is the perceived weakness of the United States, a sentiment massively strengthened since President Obama made his “nuclear deal” with the mullahs of Tehran. One immediate casualty of that perception was the promised power-sharing talks between President Ghani and the Taliban with the US as “encourager-in-chief”. Last month, however, Mullah Mansour pulled the plug with a bland statement to the new Taliban leadership: “The Americans are leaving and are no longer relevant. Why share power when we can soon have all of it in Kabul?”
A third reason may be due to Mullah Mansour’s desire to establish himself as a strong leader.
News of Mullah Omar’s death had been kept a secret because Taliban leaders could not agree on a successor. Iran was promoting Muhammad, a son of Mullah Omar, as new leader while Pakistan was behind Mullah Mansour. The pro-Iran and pro-Pakistan Taliban even did a bit of fighting among themselves, mostly in the western province of Herat, until it became clear that Iran would not be able to seize control of a Sunni Muslim movement like the Taliban. Yet another reason may be the appearance of pro-Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) groups trying to set up shop in competition with Taliban. According to the Iranian government over 80 such groups are already present in Afghanistan or in Pakistani areas close to the borders of Iran and Afghanistan. These are still small groups and unable to claim a slot in the big league of armed struggle. Some are cooperating with Taliban while others are helping Baluch rebels in Pakistan and Iran. However, ISIS-like groups could grow quickly, largely thanks to arrival of volunteers from all over the world and substantial financial support from rich individuals in Muslim countries.
By moving on the offensive now, Mullah Mansour may be signaling to his constituency that there is no need for ISIS type groups and that Islamic rule could return to Kabul through Taliban.
Finally, despite routine denials, there is no doubt that Pakistan also plays a part in reactivating the Taliban. With the US scripting itself out of the equation, Afghanistan could fall under the influence of an Iranian-Russo-Indian coalition, isolating Pakistan which, to a majority of Afghans who unlike Taliban are not ethnic Pashtuns, remains a hostile power. (Pashtuns are the largest community in Afghanistan, accounting for 38 to 40 per cent of the population.) Pakistan needs Afghanistan as hinterland providing strategic depth and a channel to Muslim Central Asia. No Pakistan government could allow Afghanistan to fall under control of a coalition of hostile powers. President Obama has always labelled Afghanistan as “the right war” as opposed to the “wrong war” in Iraq. Even if we accept that weird dialectic, it would not be hard to see that he is imposing the “wrong peace” on the” right war.” His premature withdrawal from Afghanistan could revive the smoldering fires of a war that has ravaged that nation since 1979. A strong US presence has been a guarantor of peace and democratization in post-Taliban Afghanistan. However, the task of building a new and better Afghanistan is not yet achieved. To withdraw now would be seen as a desperate cut-and-run ploy, another example of Obama snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Ironically, Obama has now more troops in Iraq, the land of the “wrong war” than in Afghanistan with its “right war.” The Taliban are already preparing attacks on Baghlan, Samangan and Mazar-i-Sharif. Their aim is to transform the country into another base for exporting terrorism to Central Asia and China to start with and, sooner rather than later, to the rest of the world.

Syrian Quicksand
Ali Ibrahim/Asharq Alawsat/October 11/15
Anyone observing current events in the Middle East must be wringing their hands in the face of such a perplexing and catastrophic situation. The gambles which some countries are making now risk inflaming the Syrian crisis into a third world war—or at the very least a proxy war involving major powers, especially if any of them makes a wrong move. Such missteps could lead to a swift descent into the quicksand of the Syrian crisis which has in four years transformed itself from a mere popular uprising calling for democratic reforms and better social conditions to a bottomless pit involving an international conflict between the United States and Russia. The situation has certainly become more dangerous following Russia’s military intervention, which ostensibly aims to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), though Western media outlets have reported that the Russians are mainly targeting rebel groups opposed to the regime of Bashar Al-Assad.
While it would be folly to expect a direct confrontation in Syria between the US and Russia—this didn’t even happen in the Vietnam or Korea wars—the situation is certainly tense after reports of a Russian plane flying into Turkish airspace. Will Turkey now become an American proxy combatant against the Russians, as happened with the Taliban against the Soviets in Afghanistan during the 1980s? In truth this scenario seems far-fetched. Turkey has given no indications it wishes to enter the conflict beyond forays into its own territory. In fact Ankara seems to have tired of the burden it is carrying due to its proximity to the conflict, especially with regard to the influx of Syrian refugees into its territories and terrorist attacks carried out on its soil. Moreover, Ankara is also preparing to enter into a strategic natural gas pipeline deal with Moscow.
There are many who blame American reluctance to arm and train the Syrian opposition, and the conflicting positions coming out of Washington regarding this point, for why the situation in Syria has become so complicated. Others blame Arab countries for not intervening during the early stages. But the latter criticism is illogical, as it would mean that Arab armies would pit themselves against each other—and this is not possible, because the political will for such a scenario is absent. The strange thing is that many have genuine doubts regarding the American position. This is what has opened the door for Putin, as there is clearly some kind of military cooperation between Moscow and Washington to prevent any clashes between their aircraft from occurring over Syrian airspace. The Americans seem content for their planes to bomb ISIS targets in Iraq while the Baghdad government forms a strategic alliance with Moscow to combat the group. What, then, from the strategic point of view, do the Russians wish to achieve in Syria? And is it true that their main objective is to protect Assad, especially considering—and Moscow knows this all too well—that he will be unable to remain in power if there is a political solution to the conflict? Is it that the Russians wish to have a hold over the Mediterranean? Perhaps, but what is certain is that if there is any regime change in Damascus, whoever is in charge will have to accept Russian influence.
This is the 64,000-dollar question which no one has the answer to right now: Who will be in power if there is indeed a transitional period of governance in Syria? For no one will be willing to share power with ISIS, or to hand over governance of a major Arab country such as Syria to any extremist group. Dividing Syria into autonomous regions where different countries hold sway—as is the situation right now—won’t work either, as this will become a persistent source of tension for everyone concerned. It is in this way that Syrian crisis now become like quicksand—which changes position and direction constantly and swallows up anyone who comes into contact with it. What Syria truly needs is an international conference where the main players—regional and international—can all sit down together to decide on the terms of engagement in the conflict and on the country’s eventual political future. In this way we can solve the majority of the current problems and avoid the abyss of a conflict between major international powers.

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