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Bible Quotation For Today/Great and amazing are your deeds, Lord God the Almighty! Just and true are your ways, King of the nations! Lord, who will not fear and glorify your name? For you alone are holy
Book of Revelation 15/01-08: "Then I saw another portent in heaven, great and amazing: seven angels with seven plagues, which are the last, for with them the wrath of God is ended. And I saw what appeared to be a sea of glass mixed with fire, and those who had conquered the beast and its image and the number of its name standing beside the sea of glass with harps of God in their hands. And they sing the song of Moses, the servant of God, and the song of the Lamb: ‘Great and amazing are your deeds, Lord God the Almighty! Just and true are your ways, King of the nations! Lord, who will not fear and glorify your name? For you alone are holy. All nations will come and worship before you, for your judgements have been revealed.’ After this I looked, and the temple of the tent of witness in heaven was opened, and out of the temple came the seven angels with the seven plagues, robed in pure bright linen, with golden sashes across their chests. Then one of the four living creatures gave the seven angels seven golden bowls full of the wrath of God, who lives for ever and ever; and the temple was filled with smoke from the glory of God and from his power, and no one could enter the temple until the seven plagues of the seven angels were ended."

Bible Quotation For Today/Very truly, I tell you, unless a grain of wheat falls into the earth and dies, it remains just a single grain; but if it dies, it bears much fruit
John 12/20-28: "Among those who went up to worship at the festival were some Greeks. They came to Philip, who was from Bethsaida in Galilee, and said to him, ‘Sir, we wish to see Jesus. ’Philip went and told Andrew; then Andrew and Philip went and told Jesus. Jesus answered them, ‘The hour has come for the Son of Man to be glorified. Very truly, I tell you, unless a grain of wheat falls into the earth and dies, it remains just a single grain; but if it dies, it bears much fruit. Those who love their life lose it, and those who hate their life in this world will keep it for eternal life. Whoever serves me must follow me, and where I am, there will my servant be also. Whoever serves me, the Father will honour. ‘Now my soul is troubled. And what should I say "Father, save me from this hour"? No, it is for this reason that I have come to this hour. Father, glorify your name.’ Then a voice came from heaven, ‘I have glorified it, and I will glorify it again."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 12-13/15
Thanks Giving Day: Pray & Be Grateful To Almighty God/Elias Bejjani/October 12/15
I Voted Today For The Conservative Party, & Call on Canadians To Do So/Elias Bejjani/October 12/15
Analysis: Great danger awaits if wave of violence spreads substantially into Gaza/By YOSSI MELMAN /J.Post/October 12/15
Iran Threatens Saudi Arabia: 'The IRGC... Will Take Vengeance' On The Al-Sa'ud Regime; 'Our Responses Will Be... Harsh And Decisive'/MEMRI/October 12/15
The New Racists: David Miller, Hilary Aked, Kevin MacDonald/Samuel Westrop/Gatestone Institute/October 12/15
Egyptians face religious extremism with song/George Mikhail/ Al-Monitor/October 12/15
Obama Will Be the Only Person Sticking to Iran Deal/Amir Taheri/Gatestone Institute/October 12/15
Turkey is the Next Failed State in the Middle East/David P. Goldman/Asia Times Online/October 12/15
The US–Russian Quagmire in the Middle East/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/October 12/15
The Mideast is going through one of its most radical transformations/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/October 12/15
Moscow wants to impose Mideast settlements on its own terms/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/October 12/15
Washington readjusts its approach to Syria/Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/October 12/15
Egypt’s Maspero and Tunisia’s Nobel prize/H.A. Hellyer/Al Arabiya/October 12/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on October 12-13/15
Thanks Giving Day: Pray & Be Grateful To Almighty God
I Voted Today For The Conservative Party, & Call on Canadians To Do So
Lebanon civil society protesters face military trial
Salam Says No Cabinet Session Soon over Political Differences
Berri Says Dialogue is Slow but Can be Counted on
Army Arrests Senior al-Nusra Front Fugitive in Arsal
Hizbullah Buries Commander Killed in Syria
5 Freed, 5 Remanded in Custody as Protest Movement Slams 'Political Detention'
Finance Ministry: Mideast Needs Grants, not Loans for Refugee Crisis

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 12-13/15
NATO will help Turkey against Russia if needed
U.S.-led Coalition Drops Ammo to Anti-IS Syrian Rebels
Turkey PM Says IS Prime Suspect over Worst Attack
Violence continues in the streets of Jerusalem
Netanyahu Vows to Defeat 'Knife Terror' after Three New Jerusalem Stabbings
Netanyahu weighs more aggressive action as Hamas leader backs 'intifada'
Al-Monitor/Week in Review/October 12/15
Netanyahu: Terrorism comes from a desire to annihilate us, not from Palestinian frustration
Israeli Border Police thwart attempted terror attack at Lion's Gate in Jerusalem's Old City
Belarus Leader Lukashenko Wins Fifth Term in Landslide
Khartoum Says 70 Sudanese Have Joined IS Group in Total
Resurgent Taliban Threaten to Overrun Another Afghan City
Opposition Slams 'Political Coup' in Iraqi Kurdistan
Palestinian knives out in Jerusalem ahead of Israeli Arab general strike

Thanks Giving Day: Pray & Be Grateful To Almighty God
Elias Bejjani/October 12/15
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2015/10/12/elias-bejjani-thanks-giving-day-pray-be-grateful-to-almighty-god/
Today while in Canada we are celebrating the Thanks Giving Day, gratitude and faith necessitates that each and every one of us with humility and faith thank Almighty God for all that we have no matter what.
To appreciate what we have it is a must to look wisely around and observe the millions and millions of people all over the world who are totally deprived from almost every thing that is basic and needed for securing a descent life.
Let us be grateful and thank Almighty God genuinely and with full reverence.
On this special day we have to focus on praying and combine both faith and acts together.
We need to train ourselves to witness for the truth and to be humble and generous in giving what we can to all those who are in need.
We must recognise and understand with no shed of doubt that the only weapons that a peaceful believer can use to fight hardships of all sorts are faith, honesty, self trust, righteousness and praying.
Let us all pray and ask Almighty God for what ever we are in need for ourselves, for others and for our beloved both countries, Canada and Lebanon.
Almighty God definitely will hear and respond in case we are genuine in our prayers and praying with confidence, faith and trust, but His responses shall be mostly beyond our understanding or grasping.
Let us Pray for on going peace and prosperity in the hospitable and great Canada that gave us a home when we needed it.
Let us pray for peace in our beloved original country, Lebanon and for freedom of its persecuted and impoverished people.
Let us pray for the souls of Lebanon's martyrs that fell on October 13/1990 while defending Lebanon's dignity and independence.
Let us pray that Jesus Christ shall grant, our mother country, Lebanon, the Land Of the Holy Cedars with faithful clergymen and brave political leaders who fear him and count for His Day Of Judgment.
Let us pray for peace and tranquility all over the world.

I Voted Today For The Conservative Party, & Call on Canadians To Do So
Elias Bejjani/October 12/15/In reality and actuality, It would be very dangerous and extremely risky if the Canadians and in spite of all the bizarre and uncalculated Liberals' empty and crazy election promises would still vote for them and let their inexperienced leader, Mr. Justin Trudeau to head the new government and decide on its future. God forbid if this scenario takes place, we Canadians are going to pay heavy prices and encounter very serious loses on all levels and in all domains. I voted today for the Conservative Party, and call on all Canadians to so in a bid to keep Mr. Harper in the PM position so he can continue his superb achievements, especially in all that is related to the foreign policies and the global fight against terrorism.

Lebanon civil society protesters face military trial
Now Lebanon/October 12/15/BEIRUT – Lebanon’s military judiciary has been moving forward with its prosecution of eleven demonstrators arrested during Thursday’s #YouStink protest in Downtown Beirut. Military Investigative Judge Riyadh Abu Ghida on Monday ordered the transfer of the detainees from the police stations they are being held at to the Military Tribunal for questioning. His decision comes after Government Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr on Saturday formally charged the arrested protesters with “rioting, throwing stones at police and widespread damage of public and private property” during an October 8 protest that descended into chaos. Another 19 demonstrators who have not yet been detained were also charged in the indictment, while Lebanese authorities went as far as notifying Interpol it was seeking their arrest. The #YouStink movement has blasted the judicial procedures against the protesters, including film director Pierre Hachach and former hunger striker Waref Sleiman. The other detainees include Khodr Abou Hamza, Mohammad al-Turk, Khaldon Jaber, Mona Halawi, Fayez Yassin, Hussam Nahouli, Hussein Ibrahim, Ramy Mahfouz and Mahmoud Moussa. “We will not abandon the detainees,” the grassroots group declared Monday afternoon ahead of a press conference on the issue. #YouStink has held a number of small demonstrations since the October 8 arrest of the eleven protesters, including one outside Judge Samir Hammoud’s house on Saturday. The lawyers of the detained activists met with Juge Saqr on Friday, a day before he issued his indictment, and called for the release of all those held in custody by the police. The lawyers further said that it was “not right to try civilians in a military court,” adding that Saqr’s answers to their legal queries were “unlawful.”
The protesters were arrested Thursday night during a tense protest held in Downtown Beirut’s Martyrs Square. Activists had demanded access to Nejmeh Square—where the Parliament is located—however security forces erected a security barrier between the Le Gray Hotel and the An-Nahar building to prevent demonstrators from marching toward the site.Clashes erupted between riot police and the protesters after the latter tried to move the barrier in the beginning of the rally, prompting security forces to douse demonstrators with water cannons while tear gas was lobbed into the angry crowd. The Internal Security Forces claimed in a press release that the entrance of the Le Gray Hotel as well as the DT restaurant across the street had been damaged during the clashes, blaming the protesters for the property destruction.

Salam Says No Cabinet Session Soon over Political Differences
Naharnet/October 12/15/Prime Minister Tammam Salam said he did not expect to call for a cabinet session anytime soon over the lack of consensus among the country's rival political leaders. “We want the session to be productive and we want it to become a turning point in resolving the waste crisis,” Salam told As Safir newspaper published on Monday. “But unfortunately the conditions are not ripe yet to hold such a session,” he said. In similar remarks to al-Joumhouria and al-Liwaa, sources close to Salam quoted him as saying that “the cabinet sessions are linked to the results of the political atmosphere in the country and the (national) dialogue sessions.” “If there are no sessions, I will be more aware that it would be useless for the government to convene. This is what I informed the conferees during the last round of dialogue,” he said. The last session of the national dialogue, which is chaired by Speaker Nabih Berri, was held at the parliament on Wednesday. But Berri adjourned the all-party talks to October 26 because he will be traveling abroad. In his remarks to As Safir, Salam lamented that the political division is reflecting negatively on the mechanism which should be adopted for the implementation of the waste plan. The contentious point lies in finding a landfill in the eastern Bekaa Valley, he said. He also called for partnership in confronting the garbage crisis. Asked whether he thought that differences on the promotion of military officers would cause more government paralysis, Salam said: “The entire country is paying the price” of the failure to reach a settlement on the controversial issue. “It is also paying the price of a fervent political conflict over the next president,” he added. The PM also said that he was backing civil society activists when they first began holding protests against the waste crisis that erupted following the closure of the Naameh landfill south of Beirut mid-July. He described their demands as “righteous,” but warned that he would not allow the protesters to “destroy the country.” During their last demonstration in downtown Beirut, the protesters inflicted heavy damage on public and private property. Security forces used water cannons and eventually fired tear gas canisters to disperse them for trying to get past barricades and reach the parliament.The demonstrations over the lingering garbage crisis that has seen rubbish pile up in the streets of the capital have in recent weeks grown into a wider protest movement against an entire political class seen as corrupt and dysfunctional.

Berri Says Dialogue is Slow but Can be Counted on
Naharnet/October 12/15/Speaker Nabih Berri has told Special Envoy for the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1559 Terje Roed-Larsen that the national dialogue is causing stability in Lebanon despite being “slow.”“The dialogue is a factor of stability and there is progress in it,” Berri told him in a phone conversation, according to al-Joumhouria daily published on Monday. “Despite recording a slow progress, it can be counted on,” he said. Their conversation took place on Sunday when Roed-Larsen telephoned him to inquire about the path that the dialogue is taking. The all-party talks kicked off last month under the chairmanship of Speaker Nabih Berri. The next session is scheduled to be held on October 26.

Army Arrests Senior al-Nusra Front Fugitive in Arsal
Naharnet/October 12/15/A senior member of al-Nusra Front, al-Qaida's Syria franchise, was arrested Monday in the northeastern border town of Arsal, state-run National News Agency reported.“The Lebanese army arrested senior al-Nusra Front member Ibrahim Mutaweh this afternoon in the town of Arsal,” NNA said. Mutaweh was wanted for “involvement in acts of terror and taking part in battles against the Lebanese army,” the agency added. Ever since the Syrian revolt erupted in March 2011, Arsal has served as a key conduit for refugees, militants and wounded people fleeing strife-torn Syria. Jihadists from al-Nusra and the Islamic State group are entrenched in the town's outskirts. In August 2014, they stormed the town and engaged in bloody battles with the Lebanese army following the arrest of a senior IS militant. The jihadists withdrew after a ceasefire, but took with them several dozen hostages from the army and police, four of whom have since been executed.

Hizbullah Buries Commander Killed in Syria
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 12/15/Hizbullah buried a leading commander in the south of the country on Monday, after he was killed "performing his jihadist duties in Syria", his party said. "The Islamic Resistance (armed wing) is celebrating a leader from its heroic, sacrificing forces, the martyr Hassan Hussein al-Hajj... who died while performing his jihadist duties in Syria," it said in an official obituary. Hizbullah has intervened in Syria on behalf of the embattled regime of President Bashar Assad, dispatching fighters and commanders to various fronts around the country. According to the South Lebanon local news website, which is close to Hizbullah, Hajj was "the head of Hizbullah's operations inside Idlib" in northwest Syria. He was killed in fierce clashes between Hizbullah fighters and "a takfiri (extremist Sunni) group", it said. Although Hizbullah did not specify when Hajj was killed, local media said he died on Saturday.Phillip Smyth, an expert on Shiite militias in Syria and Iraq, told AFP that Hajj was a "leading command element" in Hizbullah and killed in Idlib. Hajj was buried in al-Louaizeh village. The funeral was attended by large crowds including Hizbullah officials. It was a rare move for the party, which has normally refrained from giving details on its military losses in Syria. Hizbullah's obituary said Hajj had led "some of the most famous special operations" against Israeli forces.

5 Freed, 5 Remanded in Custody as Protest Movement Slams 'Political Detention'
Naharnet/October 12/15/The civil society protest movement condemned Monday what it described as “political detention” after five protesters were ordered released from jail and five were remanded in custody. “First Military Examining Magistrate Riad Abou Ghida interrogated the detainees of Thursday's protest this afternoon, in the presence of their lawyers,” state-run National News Agency reported. “He ordered the release of five of them and remanded five in custody,” it said. “Arrest warrants were issued for them in connection with the charges mentioned in the lawsuit,” NNA added. The ruling was referred to the military prosecution for “approval or appeal,” the agency said. The protest movement identified those ordered released as Mohammed al-Turk, Khaldoun Jaber, Mahmoud Bou Moussa, Khodr Bou Hamzeh and Munah Halawi and those kept in custody as Waref Suleiman, Pierre Hashash, Hussein Ibrahim, Fayez Yassine and Rami Mahfouz. The protesters Hussam Nahouli had been released earlier in the day. “The activists have become political prisoners and we will file requests for the release of the 5 detainees tomorrow,” said protest movement lawyer Mazen Hoteit during a sit-in outside the Military Court. Around 27 protesters were arrested Thursday after a civil society demonstration at Beirut's Martyrs Square turned violent. Security forces fired tear gas and water cannons after some demonstrators attempted to remove security barriers in an attempt to reach al-Nejmeh Square where the parliament is located. The Lebanese Red Cross said 35 people were treated for breathing problems at the scene. The Internal Security Forces said several policemen were injured in the clashes with the protesters. The crisis began in July when the closure of the Naameh landfill caused rubbish to pile up on Beirut's roadsides, in parking lots and river beds. There are fears the uncollected waste, coupled with the looming rainy season, could spread diseases such as cholera among the population. "This isn't a political issue, this is a sanitation issue that affects the whole country," one protester told AFP on Thursday. An emergency waste management plan devised by Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb and a team of experts envisages turning an existing garbage dump in Akkar's Srar area into a so-called “sanitary landfill” capable of receiving trash from areas across Lebanon. It also calls for reopening the Naameh landfill for seven days to dump the garbage that accumulated in random sites in Beirut and Mount Lebanon.The plan also includes setting up a “sanitary landfill” in the Bekaa region. After he announced his plan last month, civil society activists and local residents of Akkar, Naameh, Majdal Anjar, and Bourj Hammoud protested against the step, citing perceived environmental and health hazards. Experts have urged the government to devise a comprehensive waste management solution that would include more recycling and composting to reduce the amount of trash going into landfills. The trash crisis has sparked angry protests that initially focused on waste management but grew to encompass frustrations with water and electricity shortages and Lebanon's chronically divided political class. Campaigns like "You Stink" brought tens of thousands of people into the streets in unprecedented non-partisan and non-sectarian demonstrations against the entire political class.

Finance Ministry: Mideast Needs Grants, not Loans for Refugee Crisis
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 12/15/The Middle East needs grants, not loans, to deal with the millions of refugees who have fled conflicts in the region, a senior Lebanese official said Sunday.
Speaking a day after the U.N. and World Bank announced plans to increase lending to help the region deal with the catastrophic spillover of conflicts in Syria and beyond, the director general of the Lebanese finance ministry, Alain Bifani, said the aid should instead be interest-free. "The support has to be through grants. It cannot be loans," Bifani told Agence France Presse on the sidelines of the World Bank and IMF annual meetings in Lima, Peru. "As long as we can, we will turn down loans" for dealing with the refugee crisis, he said. Although much recent attention has focused on Europe's struggles to deal with the influx of uprooted Syrians, the war-torn country's neighbors have taken in the bulk of the more than four million people who have fled the nearly five-year conflict, straining their economies. Lebanon alone is hosting around 1.5 million Syrian refugees -- a huge burden for a country of four million people. Bifani estimated the total cost at more than $15 billion -- one-third of Lebanon's GDP. He said the world should consider taking in refugees a "global public good" that must be paid for, or else host countries risk collapse. "Once we collapse, the international community will still have to bear the cost, and it's going to be much higher," he said. The U.N. and World Bank have not put a dollar amount on their new financing initiative, but said it would use guarantees and grants from donor countries to ramp up lending, including concessional loans, to the Middle East and North Africa. They have set up a working group tasked with finalizing the plans by February 2016.

NATO will help Turkey against Russia if needed
Reuters, Norway/Monday, 12 October 2015/NATO will help member country Turkey if needed, the alliance’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday, days after Russian jets bombing Syria violated Turkish airspace. Asked whether NATO would be prepared to defend ally Turkey against Russia, Stoltenberg said: “Turkey is a strong ally and they have the second-largest army,” he told Reuters. “They have a capable air force, so the Turkish armed forces are the first responders, but NATO is there to help and assist them if they need.”Stoltenberg also said that Russia’s continued support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is only serving to prolong the crisis there. “Russia should play a constructive role in the fight against (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria). To support the Assad regime is not constructive. This is only prolonging the war in Syria.”He said there were no plans for the U.S.-led military alliance itself to send forces into Syria. “There are no plans for NATO as an alliance to go into Syria,” he said. Russia, Assad’s main international backer, has sent its warplanes to strike anti-Assad opposition forces despite the United States and its allies urging Moscow to withdraw support from the Syrian leader and concentrate its firepower on ISIS militants. Tensions have further mounted with NATO accusing Russian warplanes of violating the airspace of NATO member Turkey during their sorties. On the question of NATO troop levels in Afghanistan, Stoltenberg said NATO allies were continuing discussion of a planned withdrawal by the end of 2016. But he said the Alliance would not leave Afghanistan entirely. “NATO is not going to leave Afghanistan, NATO will stay in Afghanistan. What we are discussing is in what way are we going to support the Afghans. “Even if the support mission ends at the end of 2016 we will not leave Afghanistan. The main idea is that we will continue to support in one way or another,” he said.

U.S.-led Coalition Drops Ammo to Anti-IS Syrian Rebels
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 12/15/U.S.-led coalition forces have parachuted ammunition to rebels fighting Islamic State jihadists in northern Syria, a U.S. military spokesman said Monday. The move follows the Pentagon's announcement last week that it would pause a program to train moderate rebels, and instead focus efforts on equipping screened rebel leaders from groups fighting IS. "Coalition forces conducted an airdrop Sunday in northern Syria to resupply local counter-ISIL ground forces as they conduct operations against ISIL," U.S. Central Command spokesman Colonel Patrick Ryder said in a statement, using an alternative acronym for IS. "The aircraft delivery included small arms ammunition to resupply counter-ISIL ground forces so that they can continue operations against ISIL." Speaking on condition of anonymity, a U.S. official told AFP the drop included 50 tons of ammunition. Ryder said the ammunition was for Syrian Arab groups whose leaders were "appropriately vetted by the United States and have been fighting to remove ISIL from northern Syria."The United States is leading a coalition of some 60 nations that has carried out more than 7,000 drone and plane strikes against IS in Iraq and Syria since the beginning of operations more than a year ago. The Pentagon was forced to scrap plans to train thousands of Syrian rebels in Turkey and Jordan after many failed to pass the screening process and one group of graduates gave some of their ammo and other gear to an al-Qaida affiliate.
Russia on September 30 began its own bombing campaign in Syria. Moscow claims it, too, is targeting IS and "terrorists" but the Pentagon says the vast majority of strikes have been against opponents of President Bashar Assad.

Turkey PM Says IS Prime Suspect over Worst Attack
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 12/15/Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Monday said the Islamic State (IS) extremist group was the prime suspect in the double suicide bombings in Ankara that killed 97 and sparked anger over the authorities' failure to ensure security. In his first interview since Turkey was scarred on Saturday by its deadliest ever attack, Davutoglu insisted that a snap election would go ahead as planned on November 1 despite the bloodshed. The attack on a peace rally of leftist, labour and Kurdish activists ratcheted up tensions to new heights in Turkey as the government wages a relentless campaign against Kurdish militants and also battles IS jihadists. "Looking at how the incident took place, we are probing Daesh as our first priority," Davutoglu told NTV television, using an alternative Arabic acronym for IS. "We are close to a name (for one bomber). That name points to an organization," he said. Davutoglu however remained cautious, saying that authorities were also investigating the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the far-left Revolutionary People's Liberation Party–Front (DHKP-C) as "potential suspects". But this has sparked an angry reaction from the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democracy Party (HDP), which strongly disputes the official death toll and has released the names of 120 victims, claiming eight more have yet to be identified. Turkey was long accused by its NATO allies of not taking a tougher line against IS as the group seized swathes of northern Iraq and Syria and battled Kurdish militias. However after months of Western pressure, Turkey is now a full member of the U.S.-led coalition against IS and allowing American jets to use its Incirlik air base for raids, making it possibly more vulnerable to attack. With international concern growing over Turkey's stability, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was to visit Sunday to discuss Turkey and Syria, a spokesman said. Rallies in the wake of the bombings have been hugely critical of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with demonstrators chanting slogans like "Erdogan murderer" and accusing the government of failing to prevent the attacks. "We lost many friends. But the government must know that we will not step back. We will continue to fight and will fight even harder," union activist Vassaf Turgut told AFP in Ankara. But Davutoglu denied there had been any security or intelligence failure and dismissed fears Turkey could be facing civil war. "This attack will not turn Turkey into Syria," he said. In his first reaction to the violence, Turkey's leading writer Orhan Pamuk in an interview with Italian daily La Repubblica warned of sectarian conflict and blamed Erdogan for the insecurity. Erdogan, in a written statement, has condemned the "heinous" attacks as an attempt to break the country's unity. However the Turkish strongman has remained uncharacteristically silent in public since the attacks. On Monday was holding closed door meetings with officials including with spy chief Hakan Fidan, army head Hulusi Akar and Davutoglu. The attacks came with Erdogan under huge political pressure as Turkey heads into the November 1's snap election. His ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) failed to keep its overall majority in June 7 polls and then could not form any coalition. Erdogan called a repeat election for November 1 but opinion polls are showing that that the result appears likely to be much the same as before. Some commentators suggested that the Ankara attack could prompt the government to postpone the polls but Davutoglu insisted they would go ahead "under whatever circumstances". AKP spokesman Omer Celik said that the party had canceled all campaign rallies until Friday and thereafter would hold "anti-terror" unity rallies. Turkish media said investigators believe the type of bombs used in Ankara were similar to the one used in a July 20 suicide bombing in the town of Suruc on the Syrian border that killed 34 also mostly Kurdish and leftist activists. That attack was quickly blamed on IS. The Hurriyet daily reported that the authorities had taken DNA samples from families of 16 people suspected of being members of the IS group. They are also examining the theory that the missing elder brother of the Suruc suicide bomber Abdurrahman Alagoz could have carried out one of the suicide attacks, it added. Turkish authorities have since Sunday arrested over 40 suspected members of IS across the country, but it is unclear if the raids had any link with the Ankara attacks.The Suruc bombing caused one of the most serious flare-ups in Turkey in recent times as the PKK accused the government of collaborating with IS and resumed attacks on the security forces after a truce of more than two years. The military hit back, launching a "war on terror" against the Kurdish militants. The PKK on Saturday announced it would suspend all attacks -- except in self defense -- ahead of the polls. But the Turkish army kept up its campaign with more air raids killing 17 suspected militants in the southeastern Hakkari region on Sunday, state media said.

Violence continues in the streets of Jerusalem
By Jeffrey Heller and Ori Lewis | Reuters, Occupied Jerusalem/Monday, 12 October 2015/Two Palestinian youths of 13 and 15 stabbed and critically injured a 13-year-old Israeli boy riding his bike in northern Jerusalem on Monday, police said, continuing a wave of attacks in the city in which three alleged Palestinian assailants were shot dead. Four Israelis and 26 Palestinians, including eight alleged attackers and eight children, have died in 12 days of bloodshed, the worst spell of street violence for years, stirred in part by Muslim anger over increasing Jewish visits to the al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem. Palestinian groups have called for a “Day of Rage” across the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem on Tuesday and the leaders of Israel’s Arab community have called for a commercial strike in their towns and villages.Some of Israel’s Jewish residents have also taken to the streets, to protest against the attacks, and have demanded the government do more to restore security. Two Palestinian youths aged 13 and 15 stabbed two Israelis on the northern edge of Jerusalem, critically injuring one of them, the 13-year-old boy, police and hospital sources said. Police said the older of the assailants in Pisgat Zeev, built on occupied land that Israel annexed to Jerusalem after the 1967 Middle East war, had been shot dead and the younger one wounded. An hour earlier, a Palestinian girl of 16 from the same quarter of East Jerusalem as the Pisgat Zeev attackers stabbed and wounded a paramilitary border policeman in central Jerusalem.
Bus attack
And as night fell, police said they had shot dead a Palestinian on a bus near the central bus station who had first tried to grab a soldier’s rifle and then succeeded in grabbing the pistol of a police officer attending the scene. The soldier and another passenger were slightly hurt. Police also said a border policeman had shot dead a Palestinian who tried to stab him, although the account was disputed by a Palestinian passer-by, who said he had witnessed the incident and seen no knife. The near-daily stabbings have raised speculation that Palestinians could be embarking on another uprising or intifada, reflecting a new generation's frustrations over their veteran leadership's failure to achieve statehood in abortive peace talks with Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told parliament that the knife attackers would fail just as suicide bombers had failed a decade ago. “The terror of suicide bombers did not vanquish us then, and the terror of knives will not beat us now,” he said. Police have deployed 2,000 reinforcements in Jerusalem, but Israeli leaders say they have no easy answer to “lone wolf” assailants. The violence has spread from Jerusalem and the Israeli-occupied West Bank to Israel’s interior and to Hamas-ruled Gaza. Muslim anger has been stoked by increasing visits made over the past year by Jewish groups and right-wing Israeli lawmakers to the al-Aqsa mosque compound. Located in Jerusalem’s walled Old City, it is Islam’s third holiest site and is also revered by Jews as the site of two destroyed biblical temples. Israel has said it has no intention of allowing any change to the status quo at the compound, which Jews are allowed to visit, but where non-Muslim prayer is banned.

Netanyahu Vows to Defeat 'Knife Terror' after Three New Jerusalem Stabbings
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 12/15/Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Monday that Israel would not bow to "knife terror" as three new stabbings in Jerusalem spread more fear among Israelis and Palestinian unrest showed little sign of slowing. Frustrated Palestinian youths have defied President Mahmoud Abbas as well as an Israeli security crackdown by taking part in violent protests in annexed east Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank, while 18 stabbings have targeted Jews since October 3. There have been warnings of the risk of a full-scale Palestinian uprising, or third intifada. Stabbing attacks have killed two Israelis and wounded around 20, including a 13-year-old critically injured on Monday. Speaking as a new session of parliament opened, Netanyahu said "we are operating against the attackers on all fronts." Referring to past Palestinian uprisings, he said Israel had overcome previous bombing campaigns and "knife terror will not defeat us now." Security forces have however struggled to stop the stabbings, mostly committed by young Palestinians believed to be acting on their own. In Monday's first stabbing, an 18-year-old Palestinian identified as Mustafa al-Khatib attacked a policeman with a knife at an entrance to Jerusalem's Old City and was shot dead by security forces. The police officer's protective vest stopped the knife and he was unharmed. The attacker, from east Jerusalem, was shot dead by other officers. Later in the day, a female attacker stabbed an Israeli policeman near the force's headquarters in Jerusalem and was shot and wounded by the victim, police said. In the third attack, two young Palestinian teenagers stabbed two Israelis in the east Jerusalem settlement of Pisgat Zeev, with one attacker -- a 17-year-old -- killed and the other, 13, shot and seriously wounded. The victims were both Jews, with a 13-year-old who was riding a bicycle critically wounded and a 25-year-old seriously hurt, police said.
Growing anger
The violence began on October 1, when an alleged Hamas cell shot dead a Jewish settler couple in the West Bank in front of their children. It followed repeated clashes at Jerusalem's flashpoint al-Aqsa mosque compound in September between Israeli security forces and Palestinian youths. The unrest has spread to the Gaza Strip, hit by three wars with Israel since 2008. Clashes along the border left nine Palestinians dead from Israeli fire on Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, an Israeli air strike in retaliation for two rockets fired at Israel demolished a house in northern Gaza, killing a woman and her two-year-old daughter. Israel said the air strike targeted two arms workshops of Hamas, the Islamist movement that rules the Gaza Strip. Palestinian frustration has mounted with efforts towards statehood at a standstill and Israel's occupation continuing, and a recent opinion poll found a majority favor a return to armed uprising in the absence of peace talks. Funerals of Palestinians killed during unrest or while allegedly carrying out attacks -- as well as videos of the shootings -- have fed anger.
On Monday, children with plastic guns mixed among hundreds of others who carried the body of Ahmed Sharake, a 13-year-old, during his funeral procession at the turbulent Jalazone refugee camp. He was killed on Sunday during clashes in Ramallah. "He left without telling me," his mother Huda told AFP. "I saw on television that someone was killed and it was only afterward that somebody told me that it was Ahmed."Clashes erupted at a checkpoint near Ramallah after the funeral.
More than 1,000 wounded
Around 25 Palestinians have been killed amid the unrest, including alleged attackers. Protests has seen Palestinians throwing stones and firebombs at Israeli forces, who have responded with live fire, rubber bullets, tear gas and stun grenades. The Red Crescent said Sunday that 1,021 Palestinians have been wounded by live fire and rubber bullets since October 3.
Videos posted online of Israeli officers shooting dead alleged knife attackers have galvanized Palestinian youths, who see the killings as unjustified. Palestine Liberation Organization secretary general Saeb Erekat lashed out at Netanyahu after his parliament speech, saying "executions" and harassment from Jewish settlers have exacerbated the violence. In Vienna, Palestinian foreign minister Riad al-Malki accused Israel of inciting the violence. "Netanyahu wants to instigate a third intifada. He wants to avoid problems that he is facing in the political and diplomatic arena, where he has failed miserably," Malki told AFP in Vienna. Netanyahu called on Abbas to stop what he called Palestinian incitement and to condemn attacks. Both Netanyahu and Abbas have sought to avoid an escalation, but frustrated Palestinian youths have defied efforts to restore calm. Israel also said Monday that YouTube had taken down Palestinian videos that the Jewish state considered to be "inciting murder."
Videos of Palestinians stabbing Israelis or calling for such attacks as well as footage of protesters throwing stones at Israeli soldiers have been shared on the Internet, in addition to the shooting footage.

Netanyahu weighs more aggressive action as Hamas leader backs 'intifada'
Al-Monitor/Week in Review/October 12/15
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh called for “strengthening and increasing the intifada” on Oct. 9, saying that “Gaza was ready for confrontation.” The surge in violence, which began last month in Jerusalem, spread in the past week to the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip. On Oct. 9, Israel restricted access to the Al-Aqsa Mosque to prevent further confrontations. The Noble Sanctuary, including the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock, are revered by Muslims as the spot where the Prophet Muhammad ascended to heaven. The Temple Mount is the holiest site in Judaism, central to the Jewish faith as the site of two ancient temples, the first by King Solomon in 960 B.C.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure from his right flank for his management of the crisis. Ben Caspit reports that Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked from the HaBayit HaYehudi party and Yisrael Beitenu party leader Avigdor Liberman are calling for more aggressive actions, including new settlements and counterterrorism operations similar to those undertaken by Israel during the second intifada (2000-2002). “At this stage, Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon are siding with the IDF [Israel Defense Forces], which is trying to 'contain' the events, to react with proportionate force, not to burn down their bridges and instead maximize the chances for cooling down the atmosphere. The problem is that under the explosive situation created on the ground, something can go wrong at any given moment or a terror attack can succeed, leading to deterioration. No one is really interested in an escalation, except for Hamas and other terror organizations. However, that does not mean that an escalation will not take place,” Caspit writes.
Mazal Mualem explains that “Netanyahu’s restrained behavior in the face of the current wave of terror suddenly puts him in the political center, with Bennett and Liberman to his right and [Isaac] Herzog and [Yair] Lapid to his left. As long as he manages to contain the violence, this situation of 'contained security tensions' will benefit him, shield him from diplomatic issues and make it difficult for the center-left to call for a renewal of negotiations. After all, the right will argue that there is no one to talk to now while we are being stabbed in the very hearts of our cities.” Akiva Eldar laments the lack of “vision” by Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders for another familiar and ultimately tragic cycle of violence and escalation.
Shlomi Eldar suggests that Israeli-Palestinian security coordination may be the only means of preventing a further escalation of violence. He writes, “If Israel is able to deter the large Palestinian organizations by making them realize they would be better off not mobilizing their forces to lead and guide the violent events, mainly in the West Bank and Jerusalem, and if there is security coordination with the Palestinian Authority, calm might prevail. At this stage, only the Palestinian security forces can make effective pre-emptive arrests — provided that they are followed by appropriate diplomatic steps. This depends, among other things, on the extent of Israel’s response. Military operations in the territories that create flashpoints in the Palestinian population in the West Bank would be counterproductive. Even the decision made by the political echelon to demolish terrorists’ houses has never proven effective. During the second intifada it was decided to stop demolishing houses because it became unquestionably clear that it did not stop suicide bombers. Rather, it was conducive to more tension and acts of revenge by family members or neighbors whose homes were razed.”
Adnan Abu Amer reports that the Palestinian Authority presently has no plans to cease security cooperation with Israel.
Daoud Kuttab, however, writes of the increasing irrelevance of the Palestinian leadership, especially in the absence of any credible peace process: “The PLO factions — with the exception of Fatah — are largely irrelevant today. Public opinion polls show that supporters of various PLO factions rarely get more than a couple of percentage points of support. Islamic Jihad and Hamas, as well as remnants of the Fatah and other PLO militants, are under close scrutiny by both the Israelis and Palestinian security. This means that the protesters must be independent of formal organizations. … With each Palestinian killed or injured, the longevity of the protests is ensured. Another source of continuity of protests is the absence of hope. Without a credible peace process, it is impossible to pacify disillusioned, young and impressionable Palestinians who are the majority of the population.”
Syria Kurdish leader: Ahrar al-Sham "no different" than IS, Jabhat al-Nusra
The Obama administration on Oct. 9 announced a shift in its Syria strategy, instituting a “pause” in the failed train-and-equip mission, and expanding its focus to “developing relationships with leaders and units [among Syrian armed groups], and being able to get them supplies and equipment as they are in the fight against [IS],” as explained by Ben Rhodes, deputy national security adviser for strategic communication, in a press call Oct. 9. The new approach is widely considered as a boost to US military cooperation with Syrian Kurdish armed groups. Administration officials referred to the retaking of Kobani, which was led on the ground by Kurdish forces, as an example of success in the military campaign against the Islamic State (IS). Ilham Ehmed, a senior member of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) of Syria, told Barbara Slavin that like the United States, Russia is also keen to work with Syrian Kurdish forces to combat IS. Ehmed added that the Russian military campaign is "a good step for the fight against terrorism but on the other hand, it is empowering the Assad regime, which is a bad point."
Last week, Salih Muslim, co-chair of the PYD, told Amberin Zaman that with regard to the Russian intervention in Syria, “We will fight alongside whoever fights Daesh [IS].” Muslim’s position on the fate of Assad seemed to mirror that of the United States. Muslim said, “Russia sided with the regime from the very start. This is a separate matter. But as far as Assad remaining in power, we think differently. Assad cannot remain in power as before. He may stay on during a transition period, during a period of dialogue between the conflicting parties, but in the long term it seems inconceivable that the majority of the Syrian people would accept his leadership anymore.”
Muslim said Ahrar al-Sham is “no different” than Jabhat al-Nusra and IS, and shares the “same radical mentality” with the two terrorist groups, in contrast to the position of former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford and Ali al-Yassir in an article for the Middle East Institute in July 2015.
“[Jabhat] al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham are no different than IS. They are all terrorist organizations and share the same radical mentality. [Jabhat] al-Nusra is on the US [State Department’s] list of terrorist organizations. I don’t know if they [United States] will raise objections about Ahrar al-Sham, but they know who they are. There are no boundaries, no differences between the three groups. But if they were to be pushed out, the remaining opposition groups — which are very weak, including those that are fighting alongside us, that are attached to the Free Syrian Army — will be strengthened,” Muslim said.
Muslim said that Russia will prevent Turkish intervention in Syria and expressed skepticism and concern about Turkey’s intentions in Syria.
“Russia has a joint defense agreement with Syria. They will prevent Turkish intervention not to defend us [Kurds] but to defend Syria’s border,” Muslim said. “Had Turkey taken the fight against IS seriously from the start, IS would not still be on Turkey’s borders. IS is massacring Kurds, forcibly evacuating the Kurds, burning their villages. Why is Turkey not doing anything; why is it unable to stop this? We have proposed to take care of it ourselves. Then why is Turkey standing in our way? You know there is this Turkmen brigade trained by Turkey called 'Sultan' something or the other. They all defected to Daesh. It was a total fiasco. … Should Turkey adopt a more moderate stand toward us, we as politicians are ready to talk and good things could ensue. But Turkish officials keep calling the PYD and the YPG [People's Protection Units] 'terrorists.' What kind of terrorism have we engaged in? … What we really want is to fight IS together with Turkey, America and the other coalition forces. Moreover, we are not opposed to a security zone. What we are opposed to is a Turkish-controlled security zone. The no-fly zones that were established in Iraq in 1992 could be applied in Syria as well. If the whole of northern Syria were under United Nations protection, we would feel more secure,” Muslim said.
On Oct. 10, suicide bombers killed at least 95 and injured more than 200 in Ankara.

Netanyahu: Terrorism comes from a desire to annihilate us, not from Palestinian frustration
JPOST.COM STAFF, LAHAV HARKOV/10/12/2015 /Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke at the opening of the Knesset's winter session on Monday, rejecting the notion that the current wave of terrorism plaguing Israel is a legitimate answer to Palestinian frustration. "Terrorism comes from the desire to annihilate us," he stated. "A hundred years of terrorism and a hundred years of attempts to destroy the Zionist enterprise, and our enemies haven't learned," he said. "There is no way to stop the Zionist enterprise," he said. "This is our home. This is our homeland. Our will to live will defeat our enemies' desire to kill," he said. Netanyahu rejected as "lies," claims that Israel was seeking to change the staus quo at the Temple Mount. "We have no fight against Islam," Netanyahu said, adding that their was incitement being employed to bring a religious conflict to Israel. He called on Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to fight the incitement and condemn Palestinian terror attacks. A central group spreading the lies about the Temple Mount is the Islamic Movement's northern branch, Netanyahu said, reiterating that he would work to outlaw the group. "We want coexistence between Arabs and Jews in Israel," Netanyahu said. He also attacked MKs who justify terror attacks, calling on Israeli Arabs to rid the extremism from within their ranks. President Reuven Rivlin spoke prior to Netanyahu, saying that Israel cannot accept "the libel that Jews are sullying the Temple Mount with their filthy feet.""The connection of the Jewish People to the Temple Mount is undeniable," Rivlin said. The president said that attempts are being made to destroy Jewish-Arab coexistence. "We must strengthen mutual trust.""The Jewish people and Israel are not at war with Islam. The lie that we want to change the status quo at the Temple Mount is dangerous libel," he said.

Israeli Border Police thwart attempted terror attack at Lion's Gate in Jerusalem's Old City
By DANIEL K. EISENBUD/J.Post/10/12/2015/A Palestinian terrorist was shot and killed Monday morning near Lion’s Gate, in the Arab Quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City, after attempting to stab a Border Police officer. It was the third such attack at the contested site in less than 10 days. According to police, at approximately 9 a.m., the unidentified assailant, whom police deemed suspicious, was asked to stop for inspection. The suspect then withdrew a knife from his pocket and charged one of the officers, stabbing him in his metal breastplate. Police immediately opened fire, killing the man. Despite markedly heightened security, coupled by newly-installed metal detectors, the area located near the entrance to the Temple Mount remains one of the most volatile and dangerous sections of the Old City. On the night of October 3, a Palestinian terrorist murdered two Jewish men and wounded a mother and son there on a stabbing and shooting spree, before he was shot dead by police. The victims were Rabbi Nehemia Lavie, 41, an Old City resident who worked at the Ateret Cohanim Yeshiva, and Aharon Benita from Beitar Illit. Five days later, an armed ultra-Orthodox man was stabbed in the back of the neck by an 18-year-old Palestinian woman before shooting her at close range. Amid the capital’s ongoing wave of violence, Acting police Police Chief Bentzi Sau on Sunday ordered 1,000 extra highly-trained Border Police officers to be dispatched to the Old City and flashpoint Arab neighborhoods to assist the 3,500 officers presently on the ground. Stabbing attacks against Jews have become so common that Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat last Thursday encouraged citizens with gun permits to remain armed when walking the city streets. Meanwhile, police said 17 Palestinians in east Jerusalem suspected of throwing rocks and firebombs at officers and Jews in the capital were arrested overnight, bringing the total number of Palestinian arrested since October 1 to nearly 350.

Belarus Leader Lukashenko Wins Fifth Term in Landslide
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 12/15/Alexander Lukashenko won a fifth term as president of Belarus by a landslide Sunday, and warned the opposition against protests that could derail the lifting of Western sanctions imposed over rights abuse allegations. With long-standing opposition figures barred from standing in Sunday's vote and state media giving Lukashenko uniformly positive coverage, the veteran leader ran against three virtual unknowns -- only one of whom campaigned. ukashenko took 83.49 percent of the vote, election chief Lidiya Yermoshina said, with his nearest rival Tatiana Korotkevich mustering just 4.42 percent of the ballot. The result, though preliminary, is the highest ever for Lukashenko whose government made a huge effort to ensure a high turnout of over 86 percent. The process was closely watched by the European Union, with officials indicating the bloc was ready to lift sanctions against the authoritarian leader, who is regularly accused of human rights violations, if the aftermath of the polls remained incident-free. While Lukashenko allowed an unauthorised opposition rally in the capital to go ahead without police intervention on Saturday, he warned that he would not tolerate such protests after the vote. "The polls close at 8:00 pm and I advise you to follow the law," he said. "You know what will happen."A shrewd operator and exploiter of tensions between Moscow and the West, Lukashenko recently raised his standing with the EU by hosting peace talks in Minsk on the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Despite at times prickly relations with Moscow, he and Belarus's Soviet-style planned economy are propped up by Russia, which supplies the country of 9.5 million with discount price energy.
Soft dictatorship'
Europe's longest-serving leader had earlier ridiculed runner-up Korotkevich, saying she could not handle ruling a country because she is a woman. "The president here has masses of powers, from security to the economy, that so far a person in a skirt cannot carry out," he said. Lukashenko, 61, was once called Europe's last dictator by Washington, and now has the mandate to extend his 21-year grip on the landlocked eastern European country. The last elections in 2010 led to mass street protests against his victory, triggering a crackdown during which a number of leading opposition figures were arrested. Lukashenko's subsequent incarceration of his opponents led to his international isolation and the imposition of Western sanctions against him. That could now change. A mooted EU move to suspend the punitive measures, also following the surprise release in August of the country's last political prisoners, has sparked an outcry from Belarussian opposition figures who have waged a long campaign against authoritarianism. An EU diplomat said Friday the bloc would monitor the vote to see if it was held in an "acceptable climate." "That means, if there are no new arrests of opposition figures, if there is no violence and no attacks against the press," said the diplomat, who asked not to be named. But opposition leader Mikola Statkevich -- who was pardoned in August after spending five years in jail -- told AFP: "If they are together with this murderer, this criminal, then democracy is just words."On the eve of the election, the newly crowned winner of the 2015 Nobel Literature Prize, Svetlana Alexievich, warned Europe to beware of Lukashenko, describing his regime as a "soft dictatorship."Lukashenko had the lowest result in the capital Minsk where 65.58 percent of voters backed him, while in a striking figure, 20.6 percent in Minsk voted against all candidates, the most popular option for those who opposed the long-serving leader.
Hosting peace talks
Lukashenko is believed to be grooming his son Nikolai, known as Kolya, as his successor. The 11-year-old, who regularly accompanies the president at official engagements, cast his father's ballot for him at a polling station near their home in Minsk. The Belarussian leader enjoys a degree of popular support for his folksy, outspoken style and his regime's durability. Liudmila Vauchok, a six-time Paralympic medalist in cross-country skiing and rowing, said she voted for Lukashenko because he brought "reliability and calm." "Whatever happens, Belarus is flourishing," Vauchok told AFP. "Our system is established. I wouldn't like to be in the president's place as things are very complicated now. The main thing is for there not to be a war." Some voters voiced cautious opposition, however."I am voting against everyone," said Tatiana, a jeweller. "I have nothing against Batka but I wanted someone younger," she said, using Lukashenko's nickname, meaning father.

Khartoum Says 70 Sudanese Have Joined IS Group in Total
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 12/15/Sudan's Interior Minister Ismat Abdul Rahman said Monday that 70 young Sudanese have joined the Islamic State group since the jihadist organization’s emergence, traveling to Syria and Libya. Several groups of students from Sudan -- some holding western passports -- are thought to have traveled to Syria via Turkey to join the IS group, but this is the first time Khartoum has given a figure. "The total of those who have left the country to join the Daesh organization has reached 70 young men and women," Abdul Rahman said at a news conference, using the Arabic acronym for IS. The minister played down the significance of the figure, saying it was smaller than the number of recruits from other countries. Abdul Rahman said that Khartoum, in coordination with the Turkish government, had been able to prevent several "cases from joining Daesh." Sudan's security apparatus and education services were also running awareness campaigns to prevent young Sudanese from joining the IS group, he said. Abdul Rahman said there were now "new, more stringent regulations related to granting exit visas and it has become more difficult to obtain entry visas to those countries," without elaborating further. In June, 12 students from Khartoum's University of Medical Sciences and Technology were feared to have traveled to Turkey to join the group. Some held British, Canadian and U.S. passports. Another group of nine British students from the same university are also thought to have flown to Turkey from Khartoum to join the jihadist group in Syria.

Resurgent Taliban Threaten to Overrun Another Afghan City
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 12/15/Fighting flared in eastern Afghanistan Monday as Taliban insurgents threatened to storm another provincial capital, two weeks after their lightning capture of northern Kunduz city which marked their biggest military victory in 14 years. The attempt to seize Ghazni city was repelled by Afghan forces but it raised security alarm bells as the resurgent militant group pushes to expand beyond its rural strongholds in the south of the country. The violence, which prompted local shops and schools to close, follows the Taliban's three-day occupation of Kunduz and an attempt by the militants to capture the capital of northern Faryab province. "This morning some 2,000 Taliban fighters launched attacks on Ghazni from several directions," deputy provincial governor Mohammad Ali Ahmadi told AFP. "They managed to come as close as five kilometers (three miles) to Ghazni city as fierce fighting flared but were quickly pushed back by Afghan forces." The development comes after days of sporadic clashes and officials said Afghan military reinforcements had arrived from neighboring provinces to secure the city. "The Taliban's effort to capture the city has failed," Assadullah Shujahi Ghazni, the deputy provincial police chief, told AFP."The Taliban will soon realize that Ghazni is no Kunduz."The fall of Kunduz was a stinging blow to Western-trained Afghan forces, who have largely been fighting on their own since the end of NATO's combat mission in December. It raised the prospect of a domino effect of big cities falling into the hands of the Taliban for the first time in 14 years. Afghan forces claim to have wrested back control of Kunduz but sporadic firefights continue with pockets of insurgents as soldiers, backed by NATO special forces, conduct door-to-door clearance operations. As fighting spreads in neighboring provinces such as Badakhshan and Takhar, concerns are mounting that the seizure of Kunduz was merely the opening gambit in a new, bolder strategy to tighten the insurgency's grip across northern Afghanistan. The militants last week attempted to overrun Maimana, the capital of Faryab province, but were pushed back by Afghan forces backed by pro-government militias.

Opposition Slams 'Political Coup' in Iraqi Kurdistan
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/October 12/15/Several Iraqi Kurdish politicians were barred from reaching their offices on Monday, in what the opposition called a "political coup" by the autonomous region's president. The crisis came after days of violent protests against acting president Massud Barzani, whose mandate expired in August. His camp has accused the opposition Gorran party of inciting unrest. Yusuf Mohammed, the speaker of the regional parliament and a Gorran party member, was stopped on the road to regional capital Arbil by security forces loyal to Barzani. Barzani's Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) controls the west and north of the region while opposition parties, including Gorran, have most of their support base in the south. "Everything that happened today and yesterday is a dangerous development for the political process in Kurdistan," Mohammed told reporters in Sulaimaniyah, the main city in the south. Five Gorran MPs were with him when KDP security forces blocked them on the road to Arbil. They had been warned by KDP members on Sunday not to show up for work the next day. "The forces that stopped us from entering Arbil would have been enough to liberate Shingal," he said, using the Kurdish name for the city of Sinjar, the main hub of Iraq's Yazidi minority which has been controlled by the Islamic State group since 2014. Hoshyar Abdallah, a Gorran member of the federal Iraqi parliament in Baghdad, accused the KDP of being "irresponsible" and Barzani of clinging to power. "It's like a coup against the rule of law and democracy," he told AFP. "It's an egregious political act... We urge Kurdish political parties to come together to solve this." The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which fought a bitter civil war against the KDP in the 1990s, also condemned the measures against Gorran. "What the KDP did is like a political coup, it is not acceptable," said PUK lawmaker Ala Talabani. "I hope there will be a peaceful solution." Four people were killed in the past few days when what began as demonstrations demanding the salaries of civil servants be paid turned into violent protests against Barzani. Several KDP offices in southern Kurdish towns were torched. Masrour Barzani, who is the regional government's intelligence chief as well as the president's son, accused Gorran of having a "deliberate plan... to incite hatred and violence". Hemin Hawrami, a senior member of the KDP, said on social media Monday he considered Gorran to be "no longer in government".Small protests were held Monday in Sulaimaniyah and in Halabja, mostly by teachers demanding their salaries.The Sulaimaniyah governorate's spokesperson Honer Tawfiq said the regional government had begun paying teachers their July salaries on Monday. "The main reason for this crisis is Massud Barzani, who refuses to budge," said Hoshyar Abdallah. The 69-year-old Barzani served two terms and a two-year extension Kurdish parties agreed to in 2013 which expired on August 19. No deal was found for his succession. Barzani wants to stay on, arguing his leadership is required to steer the region as its peshmerga forces play a significant role in battling the Islamic State group. Asos Hardi, a Kurdish analyst, said the crisis revealed the weakness of the Kurdish political system. "When the legal institutions are unable to solve such a crisis, the people on the street lose faith in their leaders' ability to steer the region," he said. Yerevan Saeed, a Washington-based Kurdish affairs analyst, said the physical division resurfacing in Kurdistan was a dangerous development. "The risk of civil strife is indeed there and it seems that Kurdish parties have not learned from the past," he said., The KDP and PUK fought a bitter civil war in the mid-1990s and subsequently ran parallel administrations, dividing the region in two.

Palestinian knives out in Jerusalem ahead of Israeli Arab general strike
DEBKAfile Special Report October 13/2015
The Palestinian knifing spree in Jerusalem Monday, Oct. 12, the day after an Israeli Arab from Umm al-Fham mowed down, then knifed, four Israelis in central Israel, puts the Palestinians on the same bloody course as Israeli Arabs, who launched an anti-Israel general strike Tuesday. The day began at the Lions Gate, Border Guards police stopped a Palestinian who acted suspiciously. He pulled out a knife and stabbed one of the police men. The blade glanced off his body armor and the terrorist was shot dead. At noon, a female terrorist inflicted moderate injuries on another two Border Guards officers opposite National Police Headquarters in northern Jerusalem. She was stopped by gun shots and seriously hurt. A short time later, further north at Pisgat Zeev, two terrorists worked a street in tandem. They knocked a 13-year old Israeli boy off his bike and stabbed him. He is fighting for his life at Hadassah hospital on Mt. Scopus. The terrorist’s partner attacked a second Israeli, inflicting major knife wounds. Police at the scene stopped the rampage by shooting. One was killed. The Umm al-Fahm assailant, Ali Riyadh Ahmed Ziwad, 20, who had to be restrained by police and passersby, Sunday night, assumed an air of surprised innocence after his arrest. “It was just a traffic accident,” he said, after running over, then critically injuring a 19-year old Israeli girl with a knife and stabbing three others. He went into an act that is typical of the Palestinian tactic of assuming the role of victim after committing terrorist outrages. Leaders of the Israeli Arab community (roughly one-tenth of Israel’s population) including its elected members of parliament embark on a general strike Tuesday, Oct. 13, followed Wednesday by a grandstand performance by Arab MKs at Al Aqsa, accompanied by a flock of Israeli and international camera crews. They will have plenty of microphones to proclaim how badly they are treated and, above all, to continue to spread totally unproven falsehoods about Israeli desecrations of the Muslim Mosque of Al Aqsa, which has provided the Palestinians with their most evocative and unifying emblem for most of the past century.
Seventy-nine years ago, on April 19, 1936 - when Facebook, television and an Israel state were far in the future - the Arab High Command of Palestine declared a general strike which swiftly escalated into terrorist attacks against Jews and the British and evolved into the Great Arab Revolt. Then, too, the rallying cry was “the Mosque is in danger!” for triggering the order to “burn a thousand buildings in Tel Aviv.” By the time it was over in 1939, 600 Jews, 200 British officials and 5,000 Arabs were dead. Many of the last group died in internecine tribal feuds.The same rallying cry has ever since fired Palestinian campaigns of terror. The “Al Aqsa Intidafa” called by Yasser Arafat on Oct. 1, 2000, which saw the first intensive use of suicide attacks for terror, cost the lives of 1,178 Israelis and 50 foreigners, injured 8,022 civilians.
The Palestinians lost 3,333 dead and 30,000 injured – many self-inflicted.
No one can tell how the latest Israeli Arab strike will develop. Their leaders are doing their utmost to inflame passions and have already incited the first Israeli Arab stabbing attack in tune with Palestinian terrorists. Israeli Arab leaders looks as though they have the bit between their teeth and are trying to use the weakness of the Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas to set the pace of events for the Palestinians as well. The Israeli government is trying to pour oil on these turbulent waters, turning to the slow-moving legislative process as a means of fighting terror, while beefing up police forces, who are barely able to keep pace with the slashing knives. Officials and reporters still insist on the absence of a controlling hand behind the violence, despite the evidence of an unfolding stage-by-scale escalation. The policeman injured at Lions Gate Monday told reporters from his hospital bed that, while on duty at various sectors, he had traced systematic organization behind the stabbings;the knife terrorists kept on coming out at a steady, controlled pace, he said. Israeli strategists are not moving swiftly or unhesitatingly enough to correctly evaluate this enemy and pounce strongly on his weaknesses.

Analysis: Great danger awaits if wave of violence spreads substantially into Gaza
By YOSSI MELMAN /J.Post/October 12/15
The top echelon of the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), and even more so the leadership of the IDF, seems to have little impact and say on the government’s strategic decision making with regard to the current Palestinian rebellion. This is evident in the fact that the cabinet has not been listening to the defense echelon’s advice to revive peace talks in order to sow hopes among the Palestinians. Such advice has been imparted in cabinet sessions and briefings with the media. Yet, they can influence the situation by reducing violence and tension with proper tactical management of the current crisis. The great danger is that the violence will spread substantially into Gaza and the security forces will be challenged from all fronts: in the West Bank, Jerusalem, inside Israel and in the South.
The South is on the verge of an explosion, yet the worst has not yet been seen. The events over the weekend on the Gaza border passed with relative quiet, despite the fact that 10 Gazans were killed by IDF fire. On Friday, there was a demonstration of some 3,000 Palestinians, mostly young people, in Gaza opposite of Kibbut Nahal Oz. They tried to burst through one of the gates, threw a grenade and threw fireworks. Despite the fact that the IDF has experienced similar incidents in the past, even if not to the same degree, for some reason, this time it responded hysterically. Soldiers employed the use of live fire on a large scale and killed seven Palestinians and wounded dozens more. It was an Islamic Jihad demonstration. Hamas police officers, who were present in order to preserve order and who usually prevent people from massing near the border, did not interfere this time. The IDF feared that because of the large number of deaths, Hamas would respond with rocket fire on Israel or would enable Islamic Jihad or one of the Salafi groups to do so. This didn't happen. On Friday night, after midnight, one rocket was fired that exploded in open territory, failing to cause damage or injuries. The IDF did not respond.
On Saturday, again there were protests and three Palestinians were killed after which a few rockets were fired at Israel, one of which was intercepted by Iron Dome and the rest of which fell in Gazan territory. The IAF responded to these attacks like it usually does in similar instances, attacking two weapons warehouses, killing a woman and leaving a child missing.
The force operating on the Gaza border is a paratroopers unit which is supposed to be highly skilled. They may have been acting on the orders of their commanders. If so, the IDF should carry out a thorough probe on regulations and the adherence to them. For the IDF's senior command, there is a supreme interest in preventing a deterioration in the Palestinian situation. As of now, the violence which began on October 1, with the murder of Eitam and Naama Henkin, has centered in the West Bank, Jerusalem and has "trickled" – with knife attacks – into Israel within the Green Line. This is where the attention of the Israeli public and media is turned as well. The violent incidents – the "popular outburst" (huba in Arabic) is what Palestinians are calling the current wave of violence – has not yet expanded to Gaza. Gaza, for now, is showing restraint. The incident on Friday could have brought a descent into violence including rocket attacks as revenge for the killing of the young Gazans, IAF responses and eventually to another war between Israel and Gaza.
The fact that the IDF chief of staff and senior military brass understand this fact very well raises difficult questions that need checking: Is there a certain disconnect between the position of the IDF's senior commanding staff and the forces in the field? Are the instructions of the senior military ranks, assuming that such instructions were given, being internalized and carried out to the letter by mid-ranking commanders and soldiers, whose fingers are on the triggers?
It appears that following the events of the weekend, the IDF is drawing conclusions and in two subsequent attempts by Gazan demonstrators to break through the Gaza border fence into Israel, this time there was nobody killed. Attempts to break through the fence are nightmare scenario for the defense establishment. What will happen if thousands of Palestinians march on the fence, knock it down and continue their march into Israel? Will Israel respond with gunfire that will lead to a massacre? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu , Defense Minister Moshe Yaálon and other ministers, as well as the Shin Bet and the IDF, claim that part of the wave of violence stems from incitement on Palestinian social media networks, television stations and radio stations. That's true. The broadcasts, and especially the social networks create what the Shin Bet has been calling for more than a year, "atmosphere terror attacks."
But Israel and the security forces also have a responsibility for creating this same atmosphere. A large part of the pictures and videos being spread on the Palestinian social media networks come from Israeli social media – Whatsapp groups, Facebook posts and tweets. And in some cases, graphic pictures. The pictures of the killing of Hadil Shalmon from Hebron and Ahmed Hatatbe from Bayit Furik completely disprove the IDF's claims that they were shot to death after they attacked soldiers. The pictures show that when they were shot, they were not posing a threat to the armed soldiers. Also, the picture of the terrorist from Nazareth, Asran Zidan Tawfik Abed, shows that at the time she was shot, she was not endangering the security forces. And there is the video from last Sunday of Fadi Aálon from Isawiya, who, according to the police, was shot after he stabbed a Jew. The video clip that was spread on YouTube shows that Jewish youths instructed the police officer to shoot him and the officer kept firing bullets despite the fact that Aálon lay wounded in a pool of his blood on the ground. There are also claims, not completely baseless ones, that the soldiers and police are quick on the trigger when it comes to terrorists and Palestinian or Arab Israeli assailants, but they are very slow to fire when it comes to Jewish assailants, like there was on Friday in Dimona where a Jewish terrorist stabbed four Arabs.
The situation is difficult and any event can set off an even bigger fire. In the IDF and the Shin Bet they have been talking for a while about the need to renew diplomatic negotiations as the only effective way to block the rage, the despair and the frustration of the Palestinians with the dead end which Israeli-Palestinian relations are stuck in, for at least three years, with one war in the middle - Operation Protective Edge in the summer of 2014 and the violent events surrounding the Temple Mount and Jerusalem last year even before they spilled over into the West Bank and Israel.
The recommendations of security figures, media analysts, the opposition and the international community have fallen on the deaf ears of the Netanyahu-Ya'alon-Bennett government. Of course they sanctify the status quo and there only wish is to "manage the conflict." The events of October 2015 prove that this is probably impossible. Despite this, it is highly doubtful that the government will change, even to a small extent, the direction in which it is heading. Netanyahu is sitting securely in the driver's seat, but it's not clear if he knows where he is driving the car.
In this situation, when the opinion of the military and intelligence echelon is not really being heard in the cabinet, the IDF can do nothing but behave as "the responsible adult" and act with extra caution with the triggers that they have their fingers on. Ariel Sharon had already said back in the days of the second intifada that "restraint is power."

Iran Threatens Saudi Arabia: 'The IRGC... Will Take Vengeance' On The Al-Sa'ud Regime; 'Our Responses Will Be... Harsh And Decisive'
MEMRI/October 11, 2015/Special Dispatch No.6183
In recent days, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the top echelons of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dispatched threatening messages to Saudi Arabia's rulers in response to the hundreds of Iranians killed in the stampede in Mina, Saudi Arabia, which claimed the lives of over a thousand Hajj pilgrims. Khamenei, along with IRGC commanders and ideological camp leaders, were furious at the Saudi royal family, holding it responsible for the disaster and promising a "harsh and decisive" response if Saudi Arabia continued what they called its deliberate anti-Iran conduct. The daily Kayhan, which is close to Khamenei, even claimed that Saudi authorities had intentionally caused the stampede after it was planned by the Israeli Mossad.[1]
In fact, in the past 18 months, Iran has repeatedly threatened Saudi Arabia and the Al-Sa'ud royal family, as tensions between the two countries escalated against the backdrop of the nuclear negotiations, the Saudi policy of lowering oil prices, and the wars in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. Thus, for example, Iran's leadership threatened to "use all means at its disposal against Saudi Arabia," including targeting Saudi oil transports, sparking Shi'ite uprisings in eastern Saudi Arabia, threatening to set oil wells on fire, and more, in order to cause the collapse of the Al-Sa'ud regime.[2]
Two Models For Iran's Political And Military Conduct
Two distinct models characterize Tehran's geopolitical and military conduct vis-à-vis its regional and global rivals :
1. The "Paper Tiger" model – mainly vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia. Faced with the empowered military and political Sunni Arab bloc, which is stronger than Iran, the Iranian regime backs down, revealing itself as a paper tiger. This model has come into play on several occasions, when Iran didn't dare to exercise its power revealing its threats as hollow: In 2003, when the U.S. besieged Iran from the south (Iraq) and the east (Afghanistan); in Bahrain in 2011, when a pro-Iranian Shi'ite coup was thwarted by a show of Saudi-Gulf military might, and in Yemen during the past year, where Saudi Arabia is heading a Sunni-anti Iran coalition and is the most active member of this coalition.
It seems that this time as well, Iran's threats follow this "Paper Tiger" model.
2. The "Intimidating Bully" model–mainly vis-à-vis the U.S. The latter has been forgiving and sympathetic to the Iranian regime's demands and to its expansion in the region, in addition to seeing it as a partner in its strategic interests, such as the fight against ISIS – despite Iran's international terrorist activity. The U.S. has even shown willingness to grant Tehran limited nuclear status despite its violations of Security Council resolutions and IAEA regulations. Iran has continued its military and political expansion in the region alongside its ongoing issuing of threats, even against the U.S. military.[3] It has become clear that the U.S.'s sympathetic stance has neither softened nor curbed Iran's offensive activity in the region, but has only encouraged its hostile policy.
This document will review the current wave of threats by Iran's leadership against Saudi Arabia:
Khamenei's Office Posts Military Threat Video
On October 5, 2015, the official website for the office of Supreme Leader Khamenei posted a four-minute video showing Ayatollah Khomeini and then-president Khamenei mourning the death of Iranian pilgrims killed in a 1987 incident in Mecca. The video later shows footage of the bodies of Iranians killed in the Mina stampede some two weeks ago, while Khamenei condemns the lack of cooperation by Saudi authorities in the efforts to return the bodies to Iran. Khamenei is then seen flanked by military commanders and warning the Saudis that ongoing lack of cooperation would trigger a "harsh and decisive" response by Iran. This is followed by an intimidating display of IRGC naval capabilities. See the video at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0OKgBgivTc&feature=youtu.be.
Khamenei even said on September 30, 2015, at a naval graduation ceremony, that Saudi Arabia was being devious and shirking its duties in the Mina affair, stressing that Iran was free to act and promising "a decisive response." He said:"Certain people in the world of Islam, including from Iran, should go [to Saudi Arabia] and investigate this matter closely and clarify the reasons for the [Mina] disaster. They [the Saudis] have not fulfilled their duty to the injured... Even today there are still problems in transferring the bodies to Iran... but Saudi Arabia is not fulfilling its obligations, and in some cases it is even deviously acting contrary to them...
"Thus far we have looked the other way, [but] Iran has greater freedom of action than many others. We have greater abilities and more tools. They know that if they wish to confront the Islamic Iran, they cannot match it in any arena. We have [thus far] maintained the Islamic dignity and brotherly honor of the Islamic ummah. [But] we can respond, and if we wish to react our responses will be decisive. Harsh and decisive.
"...There are still tens of thousands of our loved ones in Mecca carrying out the Hajj rituals. The slightest disrespect towards them will spark a reaction [from us]. [The Saudis] not fulfilling their role regarding the bodies of our loved ones will spark a reaction [on our part]. They should be careful and carry out their duty... If anyone wishes to harm the rights of the Iranian people and the Islamic Republic of Iran, we will know how to deal with them. We will respond firmly. Thank God, [we] have the ability. The Iranian nation is powerful;this has been proven.We can defend our rights."[4]
IRGC Commander: We Are Prepared To Take Vengeance On Saudi Arabia
IRGC commander Mohammad Ali Jafari said at a press conference at an Iranian naval base on October 3, 2015 that the IRGC was prepared to take vengeance on Saudi Arabia's royal family at the behest of Supreme Leader Khamenei:
"The IRGC is preparing all possible tools for a swift and decisive Iranian response in order to realize the will of the Leader and cause the Al-Sa'ud [regime] to answer for the disaster in Mina that killed Iranian pilgrims. [The IRGC] is awaiting orders [from the Leader].
"If need be, at any time and in any place in the region, the IRGC is prepared to carry out any decisive and heroic move to defend the honor of Muslims, especially Iranians, vis-a-vis the evil ignorant Al-Sa'ud rulers. [The IRGC] will take vengeance on Al-Sa'ud.
"The Islamic world has grown tired of Al-Sa'ud's betrayals and ignorance, which include the massacre [they carry out] in Yemen, the displacement of the dear Syrian people, oppressing Bahrainis, the collective slaughter in Iraq, the creation of sectarian schism, and support for terrorism. [Saudi Arabia] will dissolve in the rage of Muslims."[5]
Iranian Ground Forces Commander: Saudi Arabia Is Betraying The Muslims
On October 5, 2015, Iran's ground forces commander Ahmad Reza Pourdastan, speaking at the funeral of General Saeed Jafari, who died in the Mina stampede, accused Saudi Arabia of "betrayals and crimes against Muslims around the world" and its government of "destroying the innocent Syrian people" and of slaughtering the people of Yemen, Iraq, and Afghanistan. He said:"In response to the recommendations and orders of the Leader [Khamenei], we are committed and ready to present the unworthy Saudi rulers with a harsh, decisive, and crushing message by the Iranian regime, and also show them the courage and greatness of Iran's soldiers. Not only does Saudi Arabia not serve the holy sites, it also carries out most of the betrayals and crimes against Muslims around the world. The Saudi Arabian government's hands are stained to the elbows with the blood of innocent Yemenis. [In addition,] it is destroying the innocent Syrian people with its total support of Jabhat Al-Nusra, and it also supports ISIS, and its hands are stained with the blood of Iraq's children, women, and men. Saudi Arabia created the Taliban [as well], and is thus killing the Afghani people.
The overall actions of this [Saudi] regime conforms to the desires of the Zionists and America. We can already see signs of deterioration in this unworthy Al-Saud mechanism, and the ground is already set for the collapse of this regime.[6]
IRGC Navy Commander: Saudis Are Totally Dependent On The Sea... They Are Highly Vulnerable
IRGC Navy Commander Ali Fadavi said on October 4, 2015: "We will look the other way as long as our Islamic duty requires this, but the time will come when it will be our duty to punish and give a slap in the face... At a time when we possess sufficient capability for any response against America's warships, which are considered the greatest threat, there is certainly no weight to Saudi Arabia's threats, which are considered the smallest threat.The Saudis are totally dependent on the sea. All their oil is exported via the Persian Gulf; more importantly, their oil is in the eastern part [of the country] and inside the Persian Gulf. America's vulnerability is high, but compared to the Americans, Saudi Arabia's vulnerability is immeasurable."[7]
IRGC Deputy Commander: The Saudi Regime Is On The Verge Of Collapse
At a "National Might" IRGC conference in Urmia in Northern Iran on October 4, 2015, IRGC Deputy Commander Hossein Salami said: "...The regime ruling Saudi Arabia has shown that it intends to graft the thinking of the jahiliyya [the pre-Islamic period] on modern means. Lack of planning, lack of responsibility, lack of management skills, neglect, pride and insensitivity turn the Al-Sa'ud regime into a weapon of mass destruction that causes Muslims to die as they are peacefully praying.
"After the Mina incident, the Saudi government behaved in a manner that was extremely ugly, hate-mongering, illogical, scattershot and irresponsible, and did not provide any answers. To this day they have not provided an accurate death toll. The disorganization prevailing there proves that a clan that treats Muslims savagely and unmercifully can no longer remain alive. All the recent events are signs of the impending collapse of [this] political regime, and the disorganization and disrespect towards the pilgrims indicate that it does not possess the necessary foundations for continued political vitality.
"At the same time, this weak, small, impotent regime intervenes in major affairs and illogically attacks Yemen and its defenseless people... The [Saudi] regime sends terrorist groups to Syria and devotes all its efforts to turn Muslims into displaced persons and humiliate them in the face of Jews and Christians... All these problems are the products of the Al-Sa'ud [dynasty], meant to spark the fire of fitna and schism in the Islamic world.
"Al-Sa'ud supports terrorist elements in order to deny the Iraqi people security and peace... They [the Saudis] do not emit a whiff of God's mercy, nor does it occupy their minds. This is also the reason that, when the Zionists attack the Palestinians, this rotten regime does not utter [a word of] protest.
"The improper Al-Sa'ud policy is the main reason for the Mina disaster. Ambitious and prideful policy in the world of Islam renders the Al-Sa'ud [regime] unable to manage a large-scale Islamic event such as the Hajj. Human imagination cannot grasp the Mina disaster, and I urge you [Saudis] to seriously heed the warnings of Leader Khamenei... As the Leader said, if a response does come, you will regret it."[8]
Endnotes:
[1] Kayhan (Iran), October 4, 2015.
[2] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 5918, IRGC Weekly To Saudis: 'Iran Has Many Options For Harming Saudi Arabia... All [It] Needs To Do Is Use A Single One Of [Them] So That Nothing Remains Of The Entity Named The Aal-Saud Regime Or Of Saudi Arabia Itself', December 31, 2014; Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No. 1144, Tehran Threatens Saudi Arabia; Khamenei: Iran Will Answer Saudi Arabia 'A Blow With A Blow', February 10, 2015; Special Dispatch No. 5858, Associates Of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei: Saudi Arabia Is The Source Of Scheming Against The Islamic World; The Al-Saud Family Is Of Jewish Origin – And Its Turn To Fall Has Come, October 14, 2014; and Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No. 1068, Iran Calls For Violent Shi'ite Reaction Against Saudi Arabia, February 12, 2014.
[3] See MEMRI TV Clip #4838 – Iranian Leader Khamenei: Death to America; Obama Is Trying to Turn Our People against the Regime, March 21, 2015; MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No. 1132, Khamenei Camp In Indirect Response To Obama Letter, On Anniversary Of U.S. Embassy Takeover: 'America Is Still The Great Satan And The No. 1 Enemy' Of Iran, November 16, 2014; and MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 5728, Tehran Friday Sermon: The Iranian President Should Punch Obama In The Mouth When He Talks Nonsense, May 2, 2014.
[4] Farsi.khamenei.ir, September 30, 2015.
[5] Sepahnews.ir, October 3, 2015.
[6] Tasnim (Iran), October 5, 2015.
[7] Tasnim (Iran), October 4, 2015.
[8] Defapress.ir, October 4, 2015.

The New Racists: David Miller, Hilary Aked, Kevin MacDonald
Samuel Westrop/Gatestone Institute/October 12, 2015
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6677/david-miller-hilary-aked-kevin-macdonald
It seems as if in the minds of David Miller, Kevin MacDonald and Hilary Aked, a mysterious Jewish cabal is responsible for all the world's ills.
Even Tony Blair, Miller argues, is in league with a sinister "international network" of Israeli settlers and American "Islamophobes."
"A liberal Muslim is their trussed-up version of the enemy, the alien, the 'other'." — Nick Cohen, journalist.
Hilary Aked describes moderate Muslims as "native informants." She also believes that a hidden Jewish network is responsible for the "Islamophobia industry." She has frequently written for a Qatari-funded media group that is accused by Egyptian newspapers of being a Muslim Brotherhood front group.
Electronic Intifada is a prominent pro-Hamas publication, whose founder, Ali Abunimah, describes Palestinian leaders who talk with Israel as "collaborators."
To fund his obsession with the "propaganda" ostensibly spread by Jews and anti-Islamist Muslims, Miller has received grants from the Economic and Social Research Council, a body funded by the British government. In 2012, Miller received £400,000 from the Council, as well as grants from groups affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.
From his office at the University of Bath, David Miller, an academic and writer, researches organizations and activists that he believes, in his words, work to "distort public debate and undermine democracy."
The results of this research, done with the help of his students and assembled into detailed profiles of the shadowy figures behind this lobbying, are published across a number of websites run by Miller, including PowerBase and SpinWatch.
A visitor to these websites will quickly note one particular constant: a vast number of Miller's profiles focus on Jews and Muslims who are working to fight extremism and terrorism.
Counter-terrorism groups, "neocons" and various political organizations are all accused of belonging to a "covert propaganda operation" for various Jewish organizations. Even Tony Blair, Miller argues, is in league with a sinister "international network" of Israeli settlers and American "Islamophobes."
As one blogger notes, any of Miller's "fellow academics" who do not present strong convictions against Israel, are "smeared... as neocons."
Shiraz Maher, a counter-terrorism expert, has written: "Despite the 'close to ten thousand' entries on SpinProfiles [another Miller project] you will find nothing on [Islamist pressure] groups. ... The problem is with SpinProfile's apparent obsession with 'Jewish power' or, if you will, 'the Jewish lobby'."
At a recent conference organized by Miller, American academic Deepa Kumar denounced Muslims working to combat extremism and terrorism within their communities as "native informants." And as the journalist Nick Cohen observed: "For the religious [Islamic] right and the political and academic left, a liberal Muslim is their trussed-up version of the enemy, the alien, the 'other'."
Another David Miller site, Neocon Europe (now defunct), published the works of Kevin MacDonald, a prominent white supremacist who claims that Jews control the media and politicians to "transform the country to serve their interests." In a list entitled, "characteristics of Jewish intellectual movements," MacDonald has claimed that Jews "form a cohesive, mutually reinforcing core" that has "access to prestigious and mainstream media sources, partly as a result of Jewish influence on the media."
Other conspiracy theories promoted on Miller's websites include those of Miller's colleague, Idrees Ahmed, who claims that the Darfur crisis has been prolonged by a powerful Jewish lobby.
In 2009, David Miller provided accommodation for Joel Kovel, an anti-Jewish American academic who has written that, "The Holocaust has been repressed from history and converted into moral capital to cover and justify whatever the Jewish people would do in the way of domination themselves, whether this be the pell-mell immersion in American bourgeois life or the policies of Israel."
David Miller and his network also work with Muslim Brotherhood operatives. In 2009, Miller secured taxpayer funding to run a project examining British Islam in collaboration with Osama Saeed, a Muslim Brotherhood activist. Saeed was previously the spokesperson for the Muslim Association of Britain, the main organization for the Muslim Brotherhood in Britain. In 2005, Saeed called for the re-establishment of the Islamic caliphate; and in 2006, Saeed expressed praise for the late Al Qaeda leader Anwar Al-Awlaki.
Miller's protégés include Hilary Aked, a blogger with a strong interest in British Jewish groups. Aked apparently believes that a hidden Jewish network is responsible for the "Islamophobia industry," and that there is a distinct "overlap between Islamophobia and Zionism." She also describes moderate Muslims as "native informants."
Deepa Kumar (left) and Hilary Aked (right) condemn moderate Muslims as "native informants."
Aked is published at the online publication, Electronic Intifada, where she writes about "pro-Israel" infiltration of the media, and that pro-Israel conferences are part of a secretive "transnational Islamophobia industry."
Electronic Intifada is a prominent pro-Hamas publication, whose founder, Ali Abunimah, has described Palestinian leaders who talk with Israel as "collaborators," and claims that, "supporting Zionism is not atonement for the Holocaust, but its continuation in spirit."
Aked has also frequently written for Al Araby Al Jadeed, a Qatari-funded media group that is accused by Egyptian newspapers of being a Muslim Brotherhood front group. Al Araby's editor-in-chief, Wael Qandil, is described by the Arab newspaper Al Arabiya as a prominent supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood.
To fund his obsession with the "propaganda" ostensibly spread by Jews and anti-Islamist Muslims, Miller has received grants from the Economic and Social Research Council, a body funded by the British government. In 2012, Miller received £400,000 ($614,000 USD) from the Council.
Miller's projects have also received funding from a number of Islamist groups tied to the Muslim Brotherhood and the terror group, Hamas, including:
£2000 from Interpal, a British charity closely linked to Hamas. Interpal's leaders regularly attend Hamas rallies and ceremonies in the Gaza strip. Interpal trustee Essam Yusuf even participated in a song that praised Hamas's terrorist activities and its "martyrs." Another Interpal trustee, Ibrahim Hewitt, has written of a "so-called Holocaust," and claims: "The Jews cannot be entrusted with the sanctity and security of this Holy Land."
£10,000 from Friends of Al Aqsa, an organization founded by Ismail Patel, who told a crowd in 2009 that, "Hamas is no terrorist organization. The reason they hate Hamas is because they refuse to be subjugated, occupied by the Israeli state, and we salute Hamas for standing up to Israel."
Friends of Al Aqsa has published writings of prominent anti-Semites, including the Palestinian journalist Khalid Amayreh, whose submission claimed that Jews control America, and that the Iraq war "was conceived in and planned by Israel through the mostly Jewish neocons in Washington."
A total of £15,000 from the Cordoba Foundation, a lobbying group led by senior Muslim Brotherhood official, Anas Al-Tikriti. Prime Minister David Cameron has described the Cordoba Foundation as a "political front for the Muslim Brotherhood."
£5000 from Middle East Monitor, a Muslim Brotherhood online publication. Its editor, Daud Abdullah, was a signatory to the Istanbul Declaration, a document that called for attacks on British troops and Jewish communities.
In 2011, Middle East Monitor brought the Hamas activist Raed Saleh to speak in Britain. Saleh has claimed (falsely) that 4000 Jews skipped work at the World Trade Center on 9/11 and that those who killed the "Martyr, Sheikh Osama Bin Laden" had "sold their consciences to Satan." David Miller is, in fact, a vocal supporter of Raed Saleh, and spoke in defence of Saleh at a court deportation hearing.
It seems as if in the minds of David Miller, Kevin MacDonald and Hilary Aked, a mysterious Jewish cabal is responsible for all the world's ills. Jewish money is supposedly the nexus between "Islamophobia," Western colonialism, terrorism and violent foreign policy.
That such views find a platform in academia -- and any funding by governments -- is, and probably should be, seriously troubling.
Anti-Jewish tropes have been the foundation of conspiracy theories for centuries. The ideas of Miller, MacDonald and Aked are not new, but they remain racist, xenophobic and false.

Egyptians face religious extremism with song
George Mikhail/ Al-Monitor/October 12/15
CAIRO — Sheikh Walid Shahin did not resort to lecterns or preaching in mosques to try to change religious rhetoric in Egypt. His faith in national unity and common values and principles among different religions pushed him to use his passion for music to communicate his message. His religious education at Al-Azhar University did not stop him from also studying musicology. He has even contributed to the music-making and hymnody of several television drama series, such as the show “The People of Cairo.”
Shahin was affected by the January 25 Revolution, in which he participated and protested in Tahrir Square until Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak stepped down Feb. 11, 2011. Back then, Shahin realized that the way to real change is in national unity. He translated this idea into his art and started a group to perform hymns with Christian hymn singer Michael Rida. While Shahin sings for the Virgin Mary and chants poems by Pope Shenouda III, Rida chants the poems of Sheikh Sayed Al Nakshabandi.
“Rev. Yousef Samir, the parish priest of St. Michael Church, came up with the idea after he invited me, as well as Rida, to perform hymns and chants at the No to Violence event. Suddenly, he asked us to perform together in one section," Shahin told Al-Monitor.
“Later on, I got together with Rida and was really surprised by his vocal abilities, especially in singing Sheikh Nakshabandi. Thus, we agreed to do a duet and perform a mix of Islamic chants and religious hymns."
Shahin said he performed hymns for the Virgin Mary even before establishing the group.
"This was upon the request of one of the evangelical church pastors in the Mother’s Day festival. I chanted a hymn dedicated for the virgin, as she is a common icon between Muslims and Christians.”
Rida and Shahin said they were surprised to receive a five-minute standing ovation after their performance at the No to Violence event. "People are always amazed when I perform hymnody for the Virgin Mary, and the poems by Pope Shenouda III. They were even more surprised when Rida sang Islamic chants by Sheikh Nakshabandi," Shahin said.
Nakshabandi, nicknamed the “Master of Eulogists,” was one of the most famous hymn singers in the history of Islamic religious choirs.
“In our group, we rely on common qualities and teachings among religions and icons that are revered by all Egyptians, such as the Virgin Mary, Pope Shenouda III and Sheik Nakshabandi,” Shahin said.
About the obstacles they face as a group, he said, “I was met with extremist views, but I did not let it affect the group. We face another obstacle in that most of the recitals are held in churches only, as the state is not taking advantage of what we are doing to combat religious extremism with art, instead of repeated talks about renewing the religious rhetoric and supporting national unity. I think art is a universal language.”
It's been difficult to fund events. They have many fans, but producers and the government aren't interested in "pointless" artworks, Shahin said.
The men established the group three years ago following the January 25 Revolution. "We were surprised that the idea has echoed very well among people, especially after the shows we performed in the three events: No to Violence, We Love Egypt and A Bit of Love festivals,” Rida said.
“My chanting for Sheikh Nakshabandi was met with much praise. However, I also heard some extremist and negative feedback, as some refuse [to accept] that a Coptic sings Islamic chants while also performing Christian hymns,” he added.
“Art is the best way to convey messages and change well-instilled ideas," Rida continued. "Our group is only being invited to perform by a few churches, although many believe that this idea would contribute to fighting against terrorism and extremism and help consolidate the concept of national unity practically without any slogans,” he added.
The group showed up on the television program Al-Hayat al-Youm (Life Today) with broadcaster Lubna Assal, who described their work as the “perfect example to renewing the religious rhetoric and consolidating tolerance, love, fighting against hatred and extremism.”
Ibrahim Amin, a scholar at Al-Azhar, told Al-Monitor that he calls upon the state and Al-Azhar to support the group at the international level to convey a message to the West that Egypt celebrates national unity. “Concerts at the world level should be organized for the group to convey the message that the Egyptian people reject all forms of extremism and seize every opportunity to instill national unity,” Amin said.
“Renewing the religious rhetoric and the consolidation of national unity is based on common principles and teaching among all religions, not on dogmatic differences. Art is the best way to convey this message,” he added.
Pastor Rifaat Fikri, head of the Media and Publishing Council at the Evangelical Church, said the state should support the group financially, help it perform in cultural halls throughout Egypt and allow audiences to attend performances free of charge.
“Any new idea will be faced with many hardships in the beginning," he said of the group's struggle, "but I believe a genuine idea will eventually reach the people.”
He added, “Egypt will fight terrorism with all means possible, including art, because it is a powerful tool in the face of extremist groups, [as are] intellectual seminars and meetings. National unity will not be achieved through slogans, but through other means that are appealing to the simple, ordinary people such as art and singing."
George Mikhail
Contributor, Egypt Pulse
**George Mikhail is a freelance journalist who specializes in minority and political issues. He graduated from Cairo University in 2009 and has worked for a number of Egyptian newspapers.

Obama Will Be the Only Person Sticking to Iran Deal
Amir Taheri/Gatestone Institute/October 12/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6684/iran-deal-honor
Sometime this week, President Obama is scheduled to sign an executive order to meet the Oct. 15 "adoption day" he has set for the nuclear deal he says he has made with Iran. According to the president's timetable the next step would be "the start day of implementation," fixed for Dec. 15.
But as things now stand, Obama may end up being the only person in the world to sign his much-wanted deal, in effect making a treaty with himself. The Iranians have signed nothing and have no plans for doing so. The so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has not even been discussed at the Islamic Republic's Council of Ministers. Nor has the Tehran government bothered to even provide an official Persian translation of the 159-page text. The Islamic Majlis, the ersatz parliament, is examining an unofficial text and is due to express its views at an unspecified date in a document "running into more than 1,000 pages," according to Mohsen Zakani, who heads the "examining committee.""The changes we seek would require substantial rewriting of the text," he adds enigmatically.
Nor have Britain, China, Germany, France and Russia, who were involved in the so-called P5+1 talks that produced the JCPOA, deemed it necessary to provide the Obama "deal" with any legal basis of their own. Obama's partners have simply decided that the deal he is promoting is really about lifting sanctions against Iran and nothing else.So they have started doing just that without bothering about JCPOA's other provisions. Britain has lifted the ban on 22 Iranian banks and companies blacklisted because of alleged involvement in deals linked to the nuclear issue. German trade with Iran has risen by 33 percent, making it the Islamic Republic's third-largest partner after China. China has signed preliminary accords to help Iran build five more nuclear reactors. Russia has started delivering S300 anti-aircraft missile systems and is engaged in talks to sell Sukhoi planes to the Islamic Republic.
France has sent its foreign minister and a 100-man delegation to negotiate big business deals, including projects to double Iran's crude oil exports. Other nations have also interpreted JCPOA as a green light for dropping sanctions. Indian trade with Iran has risen by 17 percent, and New Delhi is negotiating massive investment in a rail-and-sea hub in the Iranian port of Chah-Bahar on the Gulf of Oman. With help from Austrian, Turkish and United Arab Emirates banks, the many banking restrictions imposed on Iran because of its nuclear program have been pushed aside. "The structures of sanctions built over decades is crumbling," boasts Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Meanwhile, the nuclear project is and shall remain "fully intact," says the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Akbar Salehi.
"We have started working on a process of nuclear fusion that will be cutting-edge technology for the next 50 years," he adds. Even before Obama's "implementation day," the mullahs are receiving an average of $400 million a month, no big sum, but enough to ease the regime's cash-flow problems and increase pay for its repressive forces by around 21 percent. Last month, Iran and the P5+1 created a joint commission to establish the modalities of implementation of an accord, a process they wish to complete by December 2017 when the first two-year review of JCPOA is scheduled to take place and when Obama will no longer be in the White House. (If things go awry Obama could always blame his successor or even George W Bush.). Both Obama and his Secretary of State John Kerry have often claimed that, its obvious shortcomings notwithstanding, their nuke deal with the "moderate faction" in Tehran might encourage positive changes in Iran's behavior.
That hasn't happened.
The mullahs see the "deal" as a means with which Obama would oppose any suggestion of trying to curb Iran. "Obama won't do anything that might jeopardize the deal," says Ziba Kalam, a Rouhani adviser. "This is his biggest, if not the only, foreign policy success." If there have been changes in Tehran's behavior they have been for the worst. Iran has teamed up with Russia to keep Bashar al-Assad in power in Syria, mocking Obama's "Assad must go" rhetoric. More importantly, Iran has built its direct military presence in Syria to 7,000 men. (One of Iran's most senior generals was killed in Aleppo on Wednesday.). Tehran has also pressured Iraqi Premier Haidar al-Abadi's weak government to distance itself from Washington and join a dubious coalition with Iran, Russia and Syria.
Certain that Obama is paralyzed by his fear of undermining the non-existent "deal" the mullahs have intensified their backing for Houthi rebels in Yemen. Last week a delegation was in Tehran with a long shopping list for arms. In Lebanon, the mullahs have toughened their stance on choosing the country's next president. And in Bahrain, Tehran is working on a plan to "ensure an early victory" of the Shiite revolution in the archipelago. Confident that Obama is determined to abandon traditional allies of the United States, Tehran has also heightened propaganda war against Saudi Arabia, now openly calling for the overthrow of the monarchy there.The mullahs are also heightening contacts with Palestinian groups in the hope of unleashing a new "Intifada." "Palestine is thirsty for a third Intifada," Supreme Guide Khamenei's mouthpiece Kayhan said in an editorial last Thursday. "It is the duty of every Muslim to help start it as soon as possible."
Obama's hopes of engaging Iran on other issues were dashed last week when Khamenei declared "any dialogue with the American Great Satan" to be" forbidden.""We have no need of America" his adviser Ali-Akbar Velayati added later. "Iran is the region's big power in its own right." Obama had hoped that by sucking up to the mullahs he would at least persuade them to moderate their "hate-America campaign." Not a bit of that. "Death to America" slogans, adoring official buildings in Tehran have been painted afresh along with US flags, painted at the entrance of offices so that they could be trampled underfoot. None of the US citizens still held hostages in Iran has been released, and one, Washington Post stringer Jason Rezai, is branded as "head of a spy ring "in Tehran. Paralyzed by his fear of undermining the non-existent deal, Obama doesn't even call for their release. Government-sponsored anti-American nationwide events are announced for November, anniversary of the seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran. The annual "End of America" week-long conference is planned for February and is to focus on "African-American victims of US police" and the possibility of "self-determination for blacks."According to official sources "families of Black American victims" and a number of "black American revolutionaries" have been invited.Inside Iran, Obama's "moderate partners" have doubled the number of executions and political prisoners. Last week they crushed marches by teachers calling for release of their leaders. Hundreds of trade unionists have been arrested and a new "anti-insurrection" brigade paraded in Tehran to terrorize possible protestors.
The Obama deal may end up as the biggest diplomatic scam in recent history.
*This article was first published in the New York Post.

Turkey is the Next Failed State in the Middle East
David P. Goldman/Asia Times Online/October 12/15
http://www.meforum.org/5558/turkey-failed-state
From left to right: A Marxist terrorist holds hostage Turkish prosecutor Mehmet Selim Kiraz (who died in the ensuing shootout) in March 2015; crowds protesting the government's failure to stop ISIS terror attacks are tear-gassed in October 2015; the June 8-14, 2013 cover of the Economist.
We do not know just who detonated the two bombs that killed 95 Kurdish and allied activists in Ankara Saturday, but the least likely conjecture is that President Erdogan's government is guiltless in the matter. As Turkish member of parliament Lutfu Turkkan tweeted after the bombing, the attack "was either a failure by the intelligence service, or it was done by the intelligence service."Betrayed by both the United States and Russia, and faced with the emergence of a Kurdish state on its borders and the rise of Kurdish parties in the parliamentary opposition, Erdogan is cornered. At risk in the short-term is the ability of his AKP party to govern after the upcoming November elections. At risk in the medium term is the cohesion of the Turkish state itself.
In public, Western leaders have hailed Turkey as "a great Islamic democracy," as President Obama characterized it in a 2010 interview. That was the view of the George W. Bush administration before Obama, which invited Erdogan to the White House before his selection as prime minister in 2003.
Erdogan's ability to govern, and cohesion of the Turkish state itself, is at risk. A minority of military and intelligence analysts, though, has warned that Turkey may not be viable within its present borders in the medium term. The trouble is that its Kurdish minority, now at 20% of the overall population, has twice as many children as ethnic Turks, so many that half of Turkey's military-age population will speak Kurdish as a first language in fewer than twenty years. An existential crisis for Turkey has been in the making for years, as I reported in my 2011 book, How Civilizations Die (and Why Islam is Dying, Too). During the past week, a perfect storm has overtaken Turkish policy, and threatens to provoke deep political instability. Turkey may become the region's next failed state.
Erdogan has suffered public humiliation by both Washington and Moscow.
There has to be a fall guy in the Middle East's film noir, and that unenviable role has fallen to Turkey. Prior to the bombings, the worst terrorist incident in modern Turkish history, Erdogan suffered public humiliation by Washington as well as Moscow. As Laura Rozen reported October 9 in Al-Monitor, Washington announced a 180-degree turn in its Syrian intervention, abandoning the Sunni opposition in favor of Syrian Kurds. The United States will supply arms, equipment and air support to Syrian Arab and Kurdish groups already fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS) on the ground in Syria, the White House and Pentagon announced Oct. 9. The decision to refocus the beleaguered, $500 million Pentagon program from training and equipping a new force to fight IS in Syria to "equip and enable" rebel groups already fighting on the ground came after an interagency review of the train and equip program, US officials said. "A key part of our strategy is to try to work with capable, indigenous forces on the ground ... to provide them with equipment to make them more effective, in combination with our air strikes," Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Christine Wormuth told journalists on a call on the new strategy Oct. 9.
Until last Friday, America and Turkey both supported the Sunni opposition to the Assad government with a view to eliminating Assad and installing a Sunni regime. That policy has been in shambles for months, but it allowed the Turks leeway to provide covert support to ISIS, the one Sunni force that shows effectiveness in the field. Russian intervention exposed the fecklessness of America's attempts to find a "moderate" Syrian opposition to back. As the veteran strategist Edward Luttwak wrote last week in Tablet magazine:
Putin must certainly be innocent of the accusation that his air force has bombed the U.S.-trained "pro-democracy" freedom fighters, because the trainers themselves have admitted that the first lot on which one-tenth of the budget has been spent, i.e., $50 million, are exactly five in number, the rest having deserted after receiving their big family-support signing bonus and first paycheck, or after they were first issued with weapons (which they sold), or after first entering Syria in groups, when they promptly joined the anti-American Jabhat an-Nuṣrah, whose Sunni Islam they understand, unlike talk of democracy.
The Russians forced Washington to find something credible on the ground to support, and Washington turned to the Kurds, the only effective fighting force not linked to ISIS or al-Qaeda. That was precisely the result Turkey had wanted to avoid; the Kurdish military zone in northern Syria links up with Kurdish-controlled territory in northern Iraq, and the two zones form the core of a prospective Kurdish state.
Russia humiliated Turkey, meanwhile, by challenging Turkish fighters inside Turkish airspace, leaving NATO to protest loudly. Nonetheless the US and Germany have deactivated Patriot missile batteries–the only weapon system that represents a threat to Russian fighters–despite urgent Turkish requests to leave them in place. Russian fighters over Syria prevent the Turks from providing air cover for ISIS and other Islamist groups in Syria, as I noted Oct. 6 in our Chatham House Rules blog. M.K. Bhadrakumar observed in Asia Times Oct. 9, "Turkey's scope for maneuvering vis-à-vis Russia is actually very limited and it has no option but to reach an understanding with Russia over Syria."
Less obvious but no less ominous is the deterioration of Sino-Turkish relations due to Ankara's covert support for the East Turkestan Independence Movement, a terrorist organization active among the Uyghurs of Western China. Despite official assurances, Turkey continues to provide safe passage to Turkey to thousands of Chinese Uyghurs via Southeast Asia, some of whom are fighting with ISIS in Syria. Thailand claims that Uyghur militants carried out the Aug. 17 bombing at Bangkok's Erawan shrine after Thailand sent 109 Chinese Uyghurs back to China.
Erdogan has suffered not merely a collapse of his foreign policy, but a public humiliation by countries that backed his regime in the interests of regional stability–and this just before November's parliamentary elections. After the Kurdish-backed HDP party took 13% of the national vote in last June's elections and removed Erdogan's majority in parliament, Erdogan called new elections rather than accept a coalition government. Erdogan also revived military operations against Turkish Kurds in order to elicit support from Turkish nationalists, a transparent maneuver widely reported in the major media.
As the New York Times reported August 5,
Having already delayed the formation of a coalition government, analysts say, Mr. Erdogan is now buttressing his party's chances of winning new elections by appealing to Turkish nationalists opposed to self-determination for the Kurdish minority. Parallel to the military operations against the Kurds has been an effort to undermine the political side of the Kurdish movement by associating it with the violence of the P.K.K., which has also seemed eager to return to fighting. Instead of responding to Erdogan's provocation, the Kurds have shelved military operations in order to concentrate on winning votes in the November elections. After the Saturday bomb attacks, Thomas Seibert noted in the Daily Beast:
Observers agreed that the Ankara blast was probably linked to a decision by the PKK rebels to suspend hostilities with Ankara. The PKK had hinted in recent days that it would declare a new ceasefire in order to boost the HDP's election chances. The people behind the attack wanted to "prevent the ceasefire" from coming into effect, respected journalist Kadri Gursel tweeted. The PKK's ceasefire announcement became public shortly after the attack, but the decision by the rebels had probably been taken before.
In short, Erdogan now contemplates American heavy weapons in the hands of Syrian Kurds; the end of Turkey's ability to provide air support for Sunni rebels in Syria; a Russian campaign to roll up the Sunni opposition, including Turkey's assets in the field; and a collapse of his parliamentary majority due to an expanding Kurdish vote at home. Whether the AKP government itself ordered the Ankara bombing, or simply looked the other way while ISIS conducted the bombing, both Turkey and global opinion will assume that the ghastly events in Ankara on Saturday reflect the desperation of the Erdogan regime. Regimes that resort to this sort of atrocity do not last very long.
The best thing that Turkey could do under the circumstances would be to ask the United Nations to supervise a plebiscite to allow Kurdish-majority areas to secede if they so chose. The mountains of southeastern Turkey with the highest concentration of Kurds are a drain on the national budget and of no strategic importance. Neither Erdogan nor his nationalist opposition, though, will consider such action; that would undermine both Erdogan's neo-Ottomanism as well as the old secular nationalism. The pressures under the tectonic plates will only get worse. Saturday's bombing may have demarcated the end of the Turkish state that arose out of the First World War.
**David P. Goldman is a Senior Fellow at the London Center for Policy Research and the Wax Family Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

The US–Russian Quagmire in the Middle East
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/October 12/15
During last Thursday’s US Senate hearing tackling military and political affairs, those present unanimously agreed that by interfering in Syria, Russia has become a growing danger to the United States in terms of influence and interests. They also agreed that Russia is posing a threat to the security of the Middle East. One of the experts described what is happening as “dangerous,” recalling that Russia has never fought outside its areas of influence, not even during the Cold War. In fact, American losses are much greater than this. Washington’s current policies have pushed allies like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Kuwait to sign military agreements with Moscow, a fact that showcases an unprecedented nadir in these countries’ relations with Washington. The US’s traditional regional allies were forced to reconcile with Moscow when Washington looked askance at their interests, a case in point being the nuclear agreement with Tehran. During the Senate hearing it was revealed that Russia repeatedly violated European airspace last year, and is now violating NATO member Turkey’s airspace.
The Russian military intervention in the Middle East, which follows the annexation of Crimea in 2014, might not be the end of the current alarming scenario for the West; in reality it is probably just the beginning. It is clear that Moscow strives to expand in the region, to impose its position and bolster its relations at the expense of the United States. This is unsurprising. During the past six years, the US has deliberately distanced itself from the Middle East, especially in Iraq, the Gulf, and Egypt. Washington has taken further negative steps in refusing all appeals from Arab allies to cooperate against the massacres committed by the Assad regime in Syria. What made things even worse was when Washington did nothing when Iran and Hezbollah sent thousands of fighters to Syria. The Arab allies of the United States are now seeing how the US is begging the Iraqi government not to reduce its security in Baghdad’s Green Zone, thus revealing an American weakness for the first time since the 1960s.
The US is certainly stronger than Russia in terms of military capabilities, but the politics of the current American administration are based on avoiding any military confrontation and staying away from regional conflicts. Washington has also rejected all calls urging it to take part in the conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Yemen, as well as in Sub-Saharan Africa after the kidnapping of the Nigerian schoolgirls by Boko Haram. The US took its time and even its efforts against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Iraq came pretty late in the end. Following Russian efforts in the region, the Americans have suddenly raised their voices to condemn these regressive policies and are reconsidering the strategy of confrontation with the Kremlin. In my opinion, Washington has committed its biggest mistake in Iran, not in Syria. The nuclear deal has ended up putting constraints on Washington and not Tehran. The US avoided confronting the Iranians, who have now expanded their forces in Iraq and Syria. This served the interests of the Russians—at the expense of US—as we see today. The US will not be able to engage in a military confrontation with Russia because there are no legal justifications for such action in the absence of a decision from the UN Security Council. Moreover, the US has not established a group that can take its defense or protect its legitimacy, and the Iraqi government is no longer listening to Washington’s objections and will surely refuse to grant the US legitimacy with regards to the Russians on its soil. Therefore, Washington’s problem lies in the terrible deal it signed with Tehran which has now turned into a Trojan horse for the Russians since they are on the same team as Iran in Iraq and Syria, in addition to cooperating together in different regions in Afghanistan against American interests and Washington’s traditional allies.

The Mideast is going through one of its most radical transformations
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/October 12/15
The politics of the Middle East have never been simple, but there used to be some hard and fast rules: the United States and Britain largely controlled the region’s destiny; Israel could do no wrong, and could rely on Western backing in its military endeavours; the West could work with socially and economically conservative military and/or Sunni Islamist regimes; and Western interests would be routinely attacked by socialist-leaning or Shiite Islamist regimes. Since the Arab Spring, it is unclear whether any of these rules still hold. Russia has entered the fray with a vengeance, and has arguably taken leadership over the most important conflict currently ongoing in the region: Syria’s civil war. Russian President Vladimir Putin is bombing all opponents of the Syrian regime with gusto, especially those parts of the opposition that are backed by the West. Meanwhile, Washington has dutifully gotten out of the way, fearing that it might accidentally find itself in direct open conflict with Russian forces.the West cannot hope to just wash its hands of any responsibility over what happens in the region. The millions of Syrians and others who will continue to flee to Europe will make sure of that. In and of itself, this would be hugely significant, but if some analysts are correct, this will lead to a huge redrawing of the map of geopolitical influence in the region. There is talk that Putin is looking to align himself with the ‘axis of resistance,’ the anti-Israel, anti-West alliance of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas. There does not seem to be much appetite in the West to challenge these developments. Countries around the region will be looking very closely at Russia’s performance in Syria. If Putin’s gamble pays off, these regimes will see in Russia a committed ally should they choose to challenge U.S. and Western influence in the region, or if they face internal or external threats to their survival. How different would the world have been, for example, if Qaddafi had the likes of Putin backing him?
No strategy
The West - especially the United States - no longer has a strategy for the Middle East. It has tried detente with Iran over the nuclear issue, and it has to a large extent succeeded. However, there is no evidence yet that this will dent Iran’s opposition to U.S. interests in the region, or that it will stop funding terrorist organizations that carry out attacks against U.S. interests and allies. U.S. relations with the Saudis have chilled, and relations with Israel are at an all-time low - for perfectly good reasons, since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has killed off the peace process with the Palestinians.
The United States is in unilateral retreat across the Middle East, and the rest of the West has duly followed. Meanwhile, Netanyahu raises the spectre of war with Iran. All previous rules of the game in the Middle East have been discarded, Russia and Iran have been left in the ascendency, and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) still ravages large swathes of the fertile crescent. It is impossible to know what shape things will take when, indeed if, the dust settles. However, what is painfully clear is that the West cannot hope to just wash its hands of any responsibility over what happens in the region. The millions of Syrians and others who will continue to flee to Europe will make sure of that.Perhaps one day the West will decide it is not impotent and can yet make a positive contribution to peace in the Middle East. For now, however, there is no evidence that it has any idea how to go about that.

Moscow wants to impose Mideast settlements on its own terms
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/October 12/15
A week after the start of Russian military operations in Syria, where do the United States, the European Union, and the Arab nations stand? What is next? Russia started its military operations under the banner of the war on terror, excluding only the Free Syrian Army from the “terror” designation. However, skepticism has accompanied the Russian air raids from day one, with Russia accused of targeting and almost focusing on the Syrian opposition rather than ISIS or al-Qaeda-affiliate al-Nusra Front. Moscow did not need anyone to legitimize its military operations in the war on terror because from the outset it has – publicly – declared that one of the pillars of its military intervention is backing the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Moscow did not want anyone to give it excuses or pretexts. It informed all those concerned that its strategic objective has two main parts: providing air cover for the regime’s ground forces, to prevent the collapse of Russia’s ally in Damascus and allow it to regain its strength. This is in order for the regime to be able to be a player in the Syrian future, at least in the event of agreed partition. And the second part is to eliminate Islamic terrorist groups in Syria to prevent it from extending to Russia in the five former Soviet Muslim “stan” republics along its border.
The relative Arab silence regarding Moscow’s military intervention in Syria has many implications, and so do the statements made including by Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, who implicitly blessed the Russian air raids on ISIS in Syria. But analyzing the Arab positions is not easy, especially as the stated positions continue to stress the need for Assad to step down while Russia continues to cling to him. There are two main interpretations. One, the key Arab countries have implicitly agreed on the priority of rooting out ISIS, which poses an existential threat to them, even if the cost is strengthening the regime in Syria including allowing Assad to remain in power for some time. Two, the Arab countries have obtained an implicit agreement from Moscow and Washington that the regime should remain without Assad on the long run, but with Assad staying in the current stage.
The main problem in the second scenario has to do with the guarantees or so-called gentlemen’s agreement, that is, with trust. Trust is absent between all players, be they the Russians, Americans, Turks, or Arabs, while the political game continues over the bodies of Syrians and the ruins of their country.
Iran is not part of this trust game, however. Iran has been clear on not trusting anyone and in supporting Bashar al-Assad and his regime from the beginning, militarily and politically. Iran has thrown the Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah into Syria, while refusing to approve the Geneva process, which calls for a transitional governing body with full powers because it undermines Assad’s grip on power. Turkey and Europe are the most ambiguous on Syria these days. Turkey advanced then retreated, contributing to what the situation in Syria ultimately descended to.
Qatar and Turkey both wagered on propelling the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, which Russia took as a direct threat to its national security, despite the fact that the Brotherhood is classed as moderate compared to al-Qaeda, al-Nusra Front, and ISIS, at least in Washington’s designation.
Narcissistic battles
Russia and Turkey – heirs to the Russian Tsars and the Soviet Union, and the Ottoman Empire respectively – have a history of mistrust and rivalry. They are both engaged in revanchist fantasies. However, their thinking goes beyond regional and global geopolitical roles to economic interests, including gas pipelines and energy exports to Europe and the Caucasus. Both nations are led by men who believe themselves history-makers, and it seems that Syria has become for them an arena for their narcissistic battles. One of Turkey’s cards is its location along Syria’s border, and what this entails in terms of its influence over Syrian, Kurdish, and Iraq migration to Europe. Similarly, Russia’s Vladimir Putin has incorporated migration into his Syria strategy, like Turkey’s Erdogan. Another strength for Turkey is its membership of NATO. In other words, any Russian military missteps in Syria is a big concern for Moscow, and Ankara is aware of this. Therefore, a Russian-Turkish clash is unlikely. Moscow will play by the rules, and Ankara will not be able to drag NATO into the fray. In fact, Europe, like the United States, has no interest whatsoever in clashing with Russia in Syria, or intervening in Syria with or without Russia to begin with.
Germany is almost explicit in standing with Russia and Iran, and implicitly with the regime of Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah.
France is dithering, against its own interests not to mention those of Syria and its Arab partners. For example, French President Francois Hollande warned of an all-out war that Europe would not be immune and said, “We must act.” He speaks but does not act. He has not proposed a strategy, save for limited steps here and there, most of them in the “too little too late” category. For instance, France has proposed a draft resolution in the Security Council that is a year late against the use of barrel bombs. In short, France seems to speak out, against U.S. reluctance, but it eventually caves in, as it has done in the aftermath of the nuclear deal with Iran. For this reason, it must have been embarrassing for the French president when Putin revealed he had proposed to him a “creative” formula for collaboration between the Free Syrian Army and regime forces against ISIS. Putin revealed this to embarrass Hollande, and Hollande denied because this proposal is ludicrous. Britain has its own style but its real policy is no secret, and is part of Washington’s policy. UK Prime Minister David Cameron is suggesting empowering both regime forces and the Free Syrian Army, much like Hollande has done. Perhaps this is the new European formula, most probably with Washington’s blessing. China has its own calculus. It is allied to Russia in the Middle East and will not interfere unnecessarily with Russian strategy. Since Chinese-Arab economic ties are fine, Beijing has no reason to end its self-dissociation from the events of the Arab region. Meanwhile, the United States appears as though in a state of “schizophrenia” on the surface, but its long-term strategy is very coherent. The contradiction has given rise to may interpretations and theories.
Weakness, hesitation, and decline
Russia surmises that the United States is in state of weakness, hesitation, and decline. This, Moscow believes, has created an opportunity for Russia with an administration seemingly having decided not to engage in but to withdraw from Middle Eastern conflicts. It does not concern Russia much when U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter says Washington is not prepared to cooperate with Russia in Syria, as long as the U.S. agrees to “de-confliction” measures over Syria’s airspace where both nations’ warplanes are operating. It does not concern Russia either when the U.S. says Russia’s policy in Syria is tragically flawed, as long as Washington as signaled that it will not do anything about it. It is clear to Moscow that Washington has given it a green light to operate in Syria, despite all public denunciations. Russia has historic opportunity to carve out a new political role in the Middle East via Syria. It is building an alliance in the Middle East led by Russia. Russia wants to lead political settlements to the crises of the Middle East on Russian terms, starting, for example, by maintaining the Assad regime in power contrary to all U.S., European, and Arab claims that it is impossible to rehabilitate the “butcher” of Damascus. Regardless of whether the endgame is to exclude Assad or let him remain president of a part of partitioned Syria, Moscow wants to the Syrian regime to be a partner in the Syrian future. Russia is empowering the regime to be a strong card in its future negotiations with Washington and European and Arab capitals. In reality, no one but the Kremlin knows whether the Russian strategy is to strengthen Assad to save his regime without him, or whether it really intends to cling on to Assad.
Clearly today, Putin has informed all those concerned that Russia considers the Syrian airspace to be open to its plane, based on a “legitimate” request from the “legitimate” Syrian government. In truth, the U.S.-Russian agreement over Syria’s chemical weapons officially legitimized the Syrian government, despite Barack Obama and others’ official terminology. Clearly, Moscow wants the U.S.-led international coalition fighting ISIS to recognize that Russia has the legitimate command of Syria’s airspace, and that Russia dictates the rules of engagement. In effect, this is a major shift in geopolitical relations in the Middle East, starting with Syria. Yet Moscow will not stop at Syria. It wants to expand its operations and role to Iraq, under the guise of the war on ISIS. It is now waiting for the expected official invitation from Baghdad to do so.
Russia surmises that the United States is in state of weakness, hesitation, and decline
Washington will probably oblige, because it does not want to be involved directly in the region, and because the countries of the region will ask for Russian help as long as the U.S. is averse to engagement. Thus Moscow will succeed in building the alliance it is seeking, comprising Iraq, Russia, Iran, and Syria. The U.S. does not mind, because it does not want to lead in the Middle East. But the question here is this: Is the U.S. deferring to Russia because of the Obama administration’s strategy of non-engagement? Or is part of a long-term U.S. strategy to delegate leadership to Russia in an area that is prime to become a quagmire? There are two opinions on this. One sees that Syria will be Russia’s second Afghanistan and Iran’s Vietnam. Another says that in the past, there were powers mobilizing against communism, including the U.S., but today, no one is mobilizing against Russia, and that therefore, Russia has little to fear.
On the other hand, the lack of control over groups like ISIS and its ilk could prove that another Afghanistan is indeed in the offing, and a worse one at that.

Washington readjusts its approach to Syria
Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/October 12/15
If not for Russia’s military escalation, Washington would not have revisited its policy on Syria. With such a game-changer, and probably under time pressure, Washington recently unveiled its intention to provide arms and equipment to moderate Syrian rebels fighting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This will contribute considerably to changing the image of U.S. policy on Syria as indecisive and disinterested. It is said that Washington’s decision means an end to the much-criticized $500 million rebel-training program. However, it can be also viewed as a re-modification of the program to meet new realities brought on by Russia’s military intervention in support of President Bashar al-Assad. The Pentagon said the weapons will be sent to rebel groups whose leaders have passed a vetting process to ensure they are not, and will not, be linked to radical Islamist groups. The risk of U.S.-supplied arms falling into the hands of anti-Western fighters, as happened in Afghanistan and Iraq, had so far stopped Washington from arming Syrian rebels.
ISIS and the regime
The weapons and equipment will be sent only to moderate rebels with the sole aim of defeating ISIS, not fighting the Assad regime. Russia has described its intervention in Syria as mainly against ISIS. However, it is becoming clear that Moscow is not striking ISIS, which is reportedly advancing into rebel-held territories in Aleppo province and elsewhere while anti-Assad rebels are intensively bombarded by Russian jets. In other words, U.S. ammunition to moderate rebel groups will, one way or the other, be used against the Russians, even if only fired at ISIS. Providing moderate rebels with advanced weapons is a manifestation of Washington’s conviction that defeating ISIS is inseparable from defeating the Assad regime. There are two possibilities the Americans cannot afford to see as realities: Assad recovering and ISIS expanding. Depending on developments on the ground, Washington may readjust its approach to Syria in the near future to counter Russian scheming, including - as said by Pentagon press secretary Peter Cook - providing air support to Syrian rebels fighting ISIS.

A tale of two Octobers: Egypt’s Maspero and Tunisia’s Nobel prize
H.A. Hellyer/Al Arabiya/October 12/15
On Oct. 9, the Norwegian Nobel committee awarded the 2015 peace prize to the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet. That same day, Egyptians marked the fourth anniversary of the Maspero killings in Cairo, where dozens of Egyptian civilians were killed during a protest by state forces. One day, two events – one tragic, one buoyant – and together they show the Arab revolutionary story of the early 21st century. On Oct. 9, 2011, according to eyewitnesses, Egyptian military forces ran over and killed dozens of mainly Coptic Christians. If that was not heartrending enough, the calamity has been exponentially amplified by the lack of accountability for that event, four years on. A military court sentenced three soldiers to between two and three years imprisonment on charges of involuntary manslaughter – that is it. That is less than the sentence peaceful protesters may serve if they dare defy the infamous protest law of 2013. The irony would be amusing if it was not emblematic of the sad state of affairs that Egypt finds itself in. Maspero was neither the first nor the last instance of Egyptian civilians being killed due to excessive use of force by the state. In the 18 days of uprising in early 2011, hundreds of civilians died. Following the Maspero killings, there were many more instances – the largest being the forced dispersal of sit-ins in 2013. Accountability for more than a dozen mass killings, according to a conglomerate of Egyptian and international human rights organizations, remains unattained.
Alternative to strife
Accountability in Tunisia is not something one can count on either, but Tunisians are off to a good start. The Nobel Peace Prize was given to the quartet for its critical contribution at a crucial point in Tunisia’s transition. When the transitional process – which is ongoing – was at risk of being derailed completely due to tensions between the then-government and the opposition, the quartet stepped in to establish an alternative to deepening internal strife. The Nobel committee said in its decision that this alternative happened when Tunisia was “on the brink of civil war.” At the end of that particular phase in the process, Tunisia managed to establish a constitutional system of government that guaranteed fundamental rights – a prize that the Arab world in general remains desperately in need of. Tunisia, the spark of the revolutionary uprisings, might have delivered a gift to the entire Arab world through that constitution, although it is up to the latter to accept the gift.
One day, two events – one tragic, one buoyant – and together they show the Arab revolutionary story of the early 21st century
That achievement of the quartet is not to be underestimated, because we see all too clearly what can happen when such a political process fails to materialize. Only weeks before that Tunisian crisis, Egypt went through a deeply polarizing time, where a huge proportion of the population sought early presidential elections. Then-President Mohammed Mursi rejected that, pressure built up, and the military suspended the political process altogether, overthrowing and detaining him. There was no Egyptian Quartet to broker a political settlement, at least none that the relevant parties were willing to listen to.
The political route was suspended, even if very popularly. In the weeks and months that followed, Egypt’s failure to find a political solution to the tensions enabled far more civil strife than had happened before – a fate that Tunisia was saved from. That strife manifested itself, eventually, in blood.
Lessons. Perhaps Tunisia learned from Egypt, and saw the importance of a political solution. Another Arab country today can learn from the lessons of both Tunisia and Egypt: the country that lies in between them. Libya has suffered internecine conflict for far too long. It is too early to tell whether or not the national unity government plan that was proposed last week will succeed, but certainly Libya and its people have a choice. They can choose to walk the path of Tunisia and find a way to combine consensus with accountability – with that, they may find a way out of the quagmire they find themselves in. Or they can choose the route that Egypt chose in 2013: zero-sum games, and all the pain and destruction that comes with it. The story of the Arab revolutionary uprisings of this generation continues, and will do so for some time to come. The pain of it we have seen time and again – Oct. 9 reminds us of that, with Maspero. However, that same day, with the awarding of the Nobel prize to the Tunisian Quartet, will also remind us, in years to come, that there are other paths to take, and that constructive pathway remains as real as any other. Congratulations Tunisia.

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