LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS
BULLETIN
December 24/16
Compiled
& Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The
Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For Today
I have not
spoken on my own, but the Father who sent me has himself given me a commandment
about what to say and what to speak.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 12/48-50/:"The one who
rejects me and does not receive my word has a judge; on the last day the word
that I have spoken will serve as judge, for I have not spoken on my own, but the
Father who sent me has himself given me a commandment about what to say and
what to speak. And I know that his commandment is eternal life. What I speak,
therefore, I speak just as the Father has told me."
Yet all these, though they were commended for their faith, did not receive what
was promised, since God had provided something better so that they would not,
without us, be made perfect.
Letter to the Hebrews 11/32-40/:"And what more should I say? For time
would fail me to tell of Gideon, Barak, Samson, Jephthah,
of David and Samuel and the prophets who through faith conquered kingdoms,
administered justice, obtained promises, shut the mouths of lions,
quenched raging fire, escaped the edge of the sword, won strength out of
weakness, became mighty in war, put foreign armies to flight. Women received
their dead by resurrection. Others were tortured, refusing to accept release,
in order to obtain a better resurrection. Others suffered mocking and flogging,
and even chains and imprisonment. They were stoned to death, they were sawn in
two, they were killed by the sword; they went about in skins of sheep and
goats, destitute, persecuted, tormented of whom the world was not worthy. They
wandered in deserts and mountains, and in caves and holes in the ground. Yet
all these, though they were commended for their faith, did not receive what was
promised, since God had provided something better so that they would not,
without us, be made perfect.
Titles For Latest
LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
December 23-24/16
Egypt Agrees to UN Israel Vote Delay in Call with Trump/Agencies/December
23/16
Israel fans tensions over Hezbollah parade in Syria/Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf News/December 23, 2016
What the Peopl is Waiting For/By Ahmad El-Assaad December 23/16
Iran to tread warily despite victories, say experts/The Weekend
Australian/December 23/16
The Saudis at the UN Human Rights Council/Giulio Meotti/Gatestone Institute/December 23/16
Has the United Nations perished in Aleppo too/Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/December
23/16
What will Obama do about Russian hacking? Nothing/Dr. Azeem
Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/December 23/16
Saudi Budget 2017: Shrinking deficit, raising expenditure/Dr. Naser al-Tamimi/Al Arabiya/December 23/16
Two Bullies, Putin and Erdoğan, Try Friendship/Daniel
Pipes/Australian/December 23/16
While The Administration Slept, Others Plotted/By: Alberto M.
Fernandez/MEMRI/December 23/16
Israel accuses Obama of anti-Israeli 'shameful move' at UN/Elior
Levy and Roi Kais/ Ynetnews/
23.12.16
Is the Russian Phoenix Really Rising/Amir Taheri/Asharq
Al Awsat/December 23/16
Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on December
23-24/16
Aoun extends holiday greetings to
Lebanese
Ministerial Panel Finalizes Policy Statement, Cabinet Convenes Saturday to Approve
It
Hezbollah: Israel's fingerprints all over Hamas operative's murder
Nasrallah: Aleppo Win Ends Assad Ouster Scheme, We
Don't Want to Control Lebanon
Report: Cabinet to Hold Second Meeting Friday to Discuss Ministerial Statement
Kedenian: Lebanon Witnessing Quality Leap at
Political Level
President Aoun urges investigation into HRW report
Hariri Receives Call from Saudi Deputy Crown Prince, Meets Iran Deputy FM
Israel fans tensions over Hezbollah parade in Syria
What the People is Waiting For”
ISF denies HRW claims on torturing displaced Syrian
Hariri welcomes UN resolution to halt Israeli settlements in occupied Palestine
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 23-24/16
With Obama Administration Abstaining, UN Security Council
Approves Anti-Israeli Settlement Resolution
Army Takes Control of Aleppo in Major Boost for Assad
Putin Hails Aleppo Recapture, Moves to Expand Syria Presence
In Aleppo, Assad Supporters Shout their Joy after Regime Victory
88 Dead in Turkish Raids on IS-Held Syria Town
IS 'Burns Turkish Troops Alive' after Ankara Vows no Let-Up
Coalition Used Banned Cluster Bombs in Yemen
Berlin attack suspect Anis Amri shot dead by police
in Milan
Iran Regime MP Admits Presence of Terrorist Quds
Force Commander in Aleppo
Iran: Political Prisoner Expresses Sympathy and Support for People of Syria
Despite the Lifting of Sanctions, Why Iran's Economy Has Plunged Into
Recession? – Part 5-5
Links From Jihad Watch Site for on December 23-24/16
Trump warns UN after Israel vote: ‘Things will be different’ soon
CNN
tells Trump how to defeat jihad: “Don’t turn this into a war or clash of
civilizations”
Betrayal:
Obama’s US delegation abstains on UN condemnation of Israeli “settlement”
expansion
Islamic
Studies professor: “ISIS is as Islamic as anything else”
France:
Jewish scholar prosecuted for hate speech for criticizing Islamic anti-Semitism
Delta
passenger says Muslim who claims he was removed from flight for speaking Arabic
“definitely racebaiting”
Dutch
town cancels Christmas celebrations for fear of Berlin-style jihad massacre
Germany:
Two Muslims arrested for jihad massacre plot at shopping center
Rookie
Italian cop guns down Berlin jihad killer as he screamed “Allahu
akbar” after shooting another cop
Virginia:
Muslim bought AK-47 the day after San Bernardino jihad massacre
Germany:
Austrian embassy menu bans mention of Christmas for fear of offending Muslims
Latest Lebanese Related News
published on on December 23-24/16
Aoun extends holiday greetings to Lebanese
The Daily Star/December 23/16/BEIRUT: Lebanon's president wished the
Lebanese people a happy holiday late Thursday, saying he hoped all of them felt
the joy of the season. In a speech at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, President Michel Aoun
voiced hope that "the joy of the holidays will reach the Lebanese and
[allow us to] rebuild Lebanon
together."Aoun made the remarks during a speech
after a recital at the presidential palace.
Ministerial Panel Finalizes Policy Statement, Cabinet Convenes Saturday to
Approve It
Naharnet/December 23/16/A ministerial committee
tasked with drafting the new government's policy statement finalized the draft
on Friday evening after a second meeting at the Grand Serail,
Prime Minister Saad Hariri's office said. “We
finalized the draft policy statement in today's session, and after a phone call
between PM Hariri and President Michel Aoun, it has
been agreed to hold a Cabinet session tomorrow at 11:00 am,” Education Minister
Marwan Hamadeh announced
after the meeting. “Should things proceed normally as expected, the statement
will be referred to Speaker Nabih Berri
and consequently to parliament,” Hamadeh added. The
parliament's “debate and confidence sessions would then be held next week
between the two holidays,” the minister said. MTV said the conferees endorsed
the same clause that was used in the policy statement of Tammam
Salam's government regarding the so-called army-people-resistance equation.
According to the TV network, the Lebanese Forces' representative “asked for
some time to study the draft policy statement, specifically the clause related
to the resistance” against Israel.
Al-Mayadeen television said the statement will
include a clause about “confronting terrorism in a preemptive
and deterrent manner.”The committee's meeting was
chaired by Hariri and attended by the ministers Hamadeh
(Democratic Gathering), Mohammed Fneish (Hizbullah), Ali Hassan Khalil
(AMAL Movement), Nouhad al-Mashnouq
(al-Mustaqbal Movement), Salim
Jreissati (pro-president), Youssef
Fenianos (Marada Movement)
and Pierre Bou Assi
(Lebanese Forces). President Michel Aoun had
announced earlier on Friday that the statement would be derived from his oath
of office, “whose content has been approved by all parties.” The members of the
previous government had wrangled for several weeks over the wording of the
policy statement, specifically over the clause related to the conflict with Israel. In his
oath of office on November 31, Aoun had pledged to
endorse an "independent foreign policy" and to protect Lebanon from
"the fires burning across the region."
As for the conflict with Israel,
Aoun said: “We will spare no effort or resistance to
liberate any Lebanese territory that is still under occupation or to protect
our country from an enemy that still has ambitions regarding our land, water
and national resources.”On the anti-terror fight, Aoun vowed a “preemptive and
deterrent” strategy against terrorism. The president also pledged to
“strengthen the army and boost its capabilities to enable it to repel all kinds
of attacks on our country."
Hezbollah: Israel's fingerprints all
over Hamas operative's murder
Roi Kais/Ynetnews/December
23/16/Terror organization's spokesman tells brother and mother of man who was
assassinated in Tunisia that Israel is planning an attack, urges brother and
friends to follow al-Zawahri's path, 'whatever the
sacrifices.'
A Hezbollah official responsible for managing relations with other Arab
countries, Hassan Az a-Din
spoke Thursday to the mother and brother of Mohammad al-Zawahri,
a flight engineer who was shot to death last week at close range in his car in
the city of Sfax,
telling them that Israel
was definitely responsible for his murder. “We hold the enemy, Israel
responsible. Its fingerprints are clear in this criminal act,” a-Din said. Al-Zawahri is believed to have worked both for Hamas and
Hezbollah, the Lebanese-based terror movement.
Despite the murder, al-Din emphasized that the path of Jihad would be
continued, as would resistance against Israel, “whatever the sacrifices.”
Moreover, he called on al-Zawahri’s brother and
friends to follow in the same path as the fallen martyr.
Another official from the Shi’ite organization even
warned of Israeli plans beyond its borders which have been formulated with the
intention of striking the Arab and Islamic nation in its own homeland before
calling on the government, political parties and the nation as a whole to act
responsibly and oppose the alleged Israeli plan. The hit against al-Zawahri has largely been attributed to Israel. Indeed,
last week Tunisian media outlets said that the Mossad
was responsible. Moreover, the Tunisian Interior Minister convened a press
conference on Monday where he claimed that there is evidence supporting the
notion of involvement of a foreign organization in the murder and vowed to mete
out justice whether those responsible were inside or outside Tunisia.
Nasrallah: Aleppo Win Ends Assad Ouster Scheme, We Don't Want
to Control Lebanon
Naharnet/December 23/16/The Syrian army's recapture
of the northern city of Aleppo has put an end to hopes that President Bashar Assad's regime could be ousted, Hizbullah
chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
said Friday, while noting that his party does not want to “control Lebanon.”
"After Aleppo,
one can comfortably say that the goal of regime downfall has failed," Nasrallah said in a televised address. "Because the
regime has Damascus and Aleppo
-- the two biggest cities in Syria
-- and Homs, Hama, Latakia, Tartus, Sweida... this regime is
present, strong, effective, and no one in the world can ignore it," Nasrallah said. Hizbullah has
intervened in Syria on
behalf of Assad and fought alongside his forces in Aleppo. “Aleppo's battle is one of the major defeats
of the other camp and it is a victory for the anti-terrorism front and an
important military development for our camp. But this does not mean the end of
the conflict but rather that the scheme that was seeking to oust the regime has
ended,” Nasrallah said. Syria's
army on Thursday declared its full control over second city Aleppo, where Hizbullah
fighters played a key role in the government's advance.
"What happened in Aleppo over these past long months... was a real war,
one of the toughest battles that Syria has seen, and one of the toughest
battles that the region has seen in years," Nasrallah
said. He noted that the next stage will be focused on “consolidating the
victory in the city of Aleppo
and its suburbs because the armed groups will seek to target the city and its suburbs.”“Aleppo's
victory can pave the way for political solutions and we can say that some
countries have become realistic,” Nasrallah pointed
out.
And reiterating his accusation that the U.S. and Saudi
Arabia were “blocking the political solution,” Hizbullah's chief described Aleppo's win as “an achievement for all the
Syrians who fought and their allies.”“The credit goes to the Syrian leadership, army and people,
who took the decision to fight. Syria's
allies offered help but the Syrians are the ones who are creating the future of
their country and the entire region.” In addition to help from Hizbullah, the Damascus
regime has been bolstered by its allies Iran
and Russia, while rebels
have been backed by Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and some western
powers. Nasrallah also stressed that the regime and
its allies are not seeking any “demographic changes” in Syria.
“The armed groups were behind the demographic changes that happened. There are
no people of other faiths or other political affiliations in the areas that
they control,” he noted. Nasrallah also announced
that the residents who were evacuated from Aleppo's
eastern neighborhoods and the Damascus suburb of Daraya
will return to their homes in the future. Turning to Lebanon,
Nasrallah said the policy statement of the new
government is “not expected to run into any obstacles,” suggesting there will
be no controversy over clauses related to the liberation of Lebanese territory
still under Israel's
occupation. “The effort must be focused now on the electoral law... The
government must not consider itself as a merely elections government and it
must shoulder its full responsibilities towards the people at all levels. It
must not use the excuse of being an elections government to justify any
impotence or negligence,” Nasrallah added.
“We support an electoral law fully based on proportional representation and we
call for a comprehensive dialogue. We understand the concerns of some parties
which must be taken into consideration,” he said. “We do not back a return to
the 1960 electoral law,” Nasrallah stressed. He
added: “Some like to claim that this is 'Hizbullah's
government' and that Hizbullah wants to seize control
of the country and the institutions. These are false claims that some impotent
and weak parties hide behind.”“We do not want to seize
control of the country even if all political forces and parties ask us to do
so... No one can accept to shoulder the responsibility of a country facing this
amount of difficulties,” Nasrallah noted. As for Lebanon's
future, Hizbullah's leader added: “The discussions
are positive and open-minded and everyone wants to reach results. Our country
is entering a state of political and security stability.” “We're awaiting the
next parliamentary elections and we must remain alert at the security and
political level because the terrorist groups are angry over their defeat. The
country's future hinges on everyone's cooperation and understanding,” he said.
Report: Cabinet to Hold Second Meeting
Friday to Discuss Ministerial Statement
Naharnet/December 23/16/The cabinet will hold its
second meeting on Friday to discuss a government policy statement based on
which the parliament is set to give its vote of confidence when it convenes,
media reports said. The cabinet's General-Secretariat distributed, by email, on
the newly elected ministers late on Thursday a draft of the government’s policy
statement which was completed by the ministerial committee tasked for that end.
The ministers were called for a meeting on Friday at 5:00 pm to discuss the
statement. The daily said it obtained information that Speaker Nabih Berri held a long phone
conversation on Wednesday with Prime Minister Saad
Hariri where discussions focused on the policy statement and the vote of
confidence. Berri told Hariri that he is “ready for
the meeting” and urged him to have the statement approved before Saturday. He
said, shall the statement be referred to the parliament before noon Saturday, he would be able to call the parliament for
session on Tuesday for three consecutive days. “The atmospheres are promising
as for the policy statement. There are no complications or anything that could
delay it,” Berri was quoted as saying. A committee
tasked with devising a ministerial statement was chaired on Wednesday by
Premier Saad Hariri and attended by Mashnouq (al-Mustaqbal Movement),
Jreissati (pro-president), Education Minister Marwan Hamadeh (Democratic
Gathering), Sport and Youth Minister Mohammed Fneish
(Hizbullah), Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil (AMAL Movement), Public Works Minister Youssef Finianos (Marada Movement) and Social Affairs Minister Pierre Bou Assi (Lebanese Forces).
Hariri's government had held its first meeting on Wednesday morning. Lebanon formed
a new 30-minister government on Sunday, bringing together the entire political
spectrum except for the Kataeb Party that refused to
be represented by a state minister post. New portfolios include an
anti-corruption post and, for the first time, a minister of state for women's
affairs. Hariri was nominated to form the new government on November 3. His
nomination and President Michel Aoun's election after
two and a half years of presidential vacuum have raised hopes that Lebanon can
begin tackling challenges including a stagnant economy, a moribund political
class and the influx of more than a million Syrian refugees.
Kedenian: Lebanon Witnessing Quality Leap at Political Level
Tourism Minister Ouadis Kedenian
expressed optimism on Friday as for the general situation in the country and
said Lebanon's political scene has witnessed a quality leap via the election of
new President Michel Aoun and the formation of a new
cabinet following two years of presidential void, the National News Agency
reported on Friday. “I'm truly optimistic about the forthcoming phase,
especially that some institutions will undergo improvement,” NNA added.
Touching on the tourists arrivals in Lebanon
during the holidays season, he said: “The number of tourists arriving to Lebanon
in December has reached 250,000,” adding “bookings by
Gulf nationals were also very high this holiday season.”The
Minister stressed that he will seek to create a tourist activity to attract
more tourists because “Lebanon
is the safest country in its surrounding,” concluded the Minister. Lebanon formed
a new 30-minister government on Sunday, bringing together the entire political
spectrum except for the Kataeb Party that refused to
be represented by a state minister post. Hariri's government had held its first
meeting on Wednesday morning. Hariri was nominated to form the new government
on November 3. His nomination and President Michel Aoun's
election after two and a half years of presidential vacuum have raised hopes
that Lebanon
can begin tackling challenges including a stagnant economy, a moribund
political class and the influx of more than a million Syrian refugees.
President Aoun urges investigation into HRW report
The Daily Star/December 23/16/BEIRUT: President Michel Aoun
Friday called on the general prosecution to investigate claims made in a recent
Human Rights Watch report regarding the torture of a gay Syrian refugee by
security forces. He said that the information indicated a violation of human
rights, which he has continuously called for respecting, speaking during a
meeting with State Prosecutor Judge Samir Hammoud at Baabda Palace.
"The tasking of a minister to follow up human rights matters in the new
Cabinet indicates the state's perseverance to follow up on this matter in
particular," a statement issued by his office said. A
Internal Security Forces source told The Daily Star Thursday that the
institution was dealing with the matter seriously. “As the ISF, we denounce
this act if it is true ... we are following up on the issue,” the source said.
According to an HRW report, released Wednesday, Lebanese security forces
allegedly detained and tortured a 31-year-old Syrian refugee named by HRW as Shadi in February because of his sexual orientation. Shadi told the organization he was abused over a five-day
period at various military intelligence, Defense
Ministry, military police and Internal Security Forces centers. “Such acts are
totally prohibited and there’s no way we can accept it,” the ISF source said,
adding that measures will be taken against the officers involved if proven
true.
Hariri Receives Call from Saudi Deputy
Crown Prince, Meets Iran
Deputy FM
Naharnet/December 23/16/Prime Minister Saad Hariri on Thursday received a phone call from Saudi Arabia's
powerful Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and
met with visiting Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein Jaber
Ansari. The Saudi prince congratulated Hariri on the
formation of the new government, wishing him “success in his missions for the
sake and benefit of Lebanon
and its people,” Hariri's office said in a statement. Talks tackled “the latest
local and Arab developments” and the deputy crown prince stressed the kingdom's
“support for Lebanon
and its keenness on strengthening and developing bilateral relations between
the two countries,” the statement added. Also on Thursday, Hariri held talks at
the Grand Serail with Iran's
deputy FM, who was accompanied by an Iranian delegation and Iran's
Ambassador to Lebanon Mohammed Fathali. After the
talks, Ansari lauded the latest “accord and harmony
among the political and social components that are influential in the Lebanese
arena, which eventually led to putting an end to a lengthy presidential void
through the election of General Michel Aoun as president.”The consensus “also led to the appointment of PM
Hariri and the birth of a national accord government, which we hope will be
able to resolve all the challenges and problems that brotherly Lebanon is
going through during this period,” Ansari added. “We
discussed the various political developments and the relations between the two
countries, and we hoped to witness further bilateral cooperation in all fields
during his government's term,” the Iranian official went on to say, describing
the meeting as “fruitful and positive.”
Israel fans tensions over Hezbollah
parade in Syria
Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf News/December 23, 2016
New accusations are aimed at browbeating President Michel Aoun
Riyadh: Although the United States denied an Israeli claim that the US-supplied
armoured vehicles seen during an unprecedented Hezbollah military parade in the
Syrian town of Qusayr on November 11 originated from
the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), Israel sought to revisit the issue a few days
ago, most probably as a warning to President Michel Aoun.
The latest accusations, which were widely reported including in the influential
New York Times, alleged that the tanks and armoured personnel vehicles were
drawn from stocks supplied by Washington
to the LAF. According to an unnamed senior Israeli officer who briefed foreign
journalists, Hezbollah acquired the equipment from the LAF, a clear violation
of US laws that prohibit third-party transfers. Importantly, the Department of
State spokesman John Kirby reiterated on Wednesday that American officials
investigated the matter when videos of the parade circulated, and concluded
that Lebanon
did not violate its agreements. Kirby told AFP that the Department of Defence
conducted “a structural analysis of the armoured personnel carriers in question
at that time and [further] concluded that these vehicles were not from LAF”
stocks. Beyond the fact that the LAF was careful in all end use clauses
attached to all of the arms it receives from Washington, and while the more
logical source[s] of these items were either the former Free Lebanon Army
[Antoine Lahad] or Israeli vehicles abandoned after
the 2000 withdrawal, the latest timing was revelatory.
Barely a month after his election, President Michel Aoun signed major political concessions for Hezbollah,
including a veto power within the government. This fact did not sit well
as Israelis were increasingly wary of Hezbollah’s growing influence within Lebanon, as the
group “tightened its grip” over state institutions, which promised to grow even
more under the Aoun administration. Moreover, and
because of the party’s critical role alongside other Iranian militias in the
battle for Aleppo, Israel looked at Hezbollah with
added caution. By revisiting a story like the alleged LAF weapons, what Israel aimed to achieve was a concerted effort
to derail American-Lebanese ties, which are vital to Beirut. An LAF Colonel serving at the Ministry
of Defence in Yarzeh confirmed to Gulf News that Lebanon was
aware of the accusations against it that, he insisted, were devoid of any
truths. Speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to
speak to the media, the Colonel claimed that General Jean Qahwaji,
the LAF Commander, was adamant on honouring its commitments as he repeatedly
called on the rank and file to depoliticise the armed forces. “Our internal
challenges suffice but we understand that Israel is sending a warning to
President Aoun,” affirmed the LAF Colonel,
“especially to maintain a certain distance from Hezbollah”. Lebanon is caught between a rock and a
hard-place, with two difficult neighbours who agree on regime stability in Damascus, though at Beirut’s
expense. President Aoun has not responded to the
latest Israeli accusations though the Lebanese government relied on Washington to retort.
“What the People is Waiting For”
By Ahmad El-Assaad December 22, 2016
After two and a half years of a deadly vacuum in constitutional institutions,
it is time to let the people catch their breath, and give them hope that their
concerns and sorrows, long neglected in the past due to political bickering and
recklessness, have now become a top priority for the President.
Perhaps now is not the time to find solutions to the major issues in the
country, but the people simply cannot be left stuck in the middle of political
discord. Action needs to be taken in order to improve the country’s situation
and its citizens, whom shall be provided a normal life.
Bringing its dignity to a people – the government’s first pillar and source of
its authorities, whose economy, public health and most basic social rights were
violated – is topped by no other matter, internal or external. It’s the accumulation
of two years and a half of issues pertaining to garbage, pollution, corruption,
the state of the roads and scandals. This orientation was clear to see in the
first ministerial Cabinet meeting of this presidential mandate. The President
of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, has openly
called on the ministers to “meet the expectations of the people from the
government, such as providing water, electricity, public works and traffic control.”Nobody expects the new Cabinet to solve, in the
matter of a few months, complicated matters that have been stuck for decades,
or to make any major national choices.
However, this Cabinet is indeed expected to relieve the country, and improve
the economy by once again attracting investments. This was in fact one of the
main objectives behind settling for General Aoun as
President. This settlement, at least, allows to focus on these matters and
leave the thorny ones to be solved in due time. After all, there’s no running
from them.
ISF denies HRW claims on torturing displaced
Syrian
Fri 23 Dec 2016 /NNA - The Internal Security Forces denied on Friday
claims appeared in human Rights Watch report, alleging that a displaced Syrian
had been tortured by Jounieh police because of his
sexual orientation.
Hariri welcomes UN resolution to halt Israeli settlements in occupied Palestine
Fri 23 Dec 2016 /NNA - Prime Minister Saad
Hariri welcomed, in a tweet on Friday, a fresh resolution by the UN Security
Council, hereby demanding that Israel halt settlements building in the occupied
Palestinian lands.
Latest LCCC Bulletin For
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on on December
23-24/16
With Obama Administration
Abstaining, UN Security Council Approves Anti-Israeli Settlement Resolution
Barney Breen-Portnoy/Algemeiner/December 23/16
The UN Security Council voted 14-0 on Friday — with the US abstaining — in favor of an anti-settlement resolution that was vehemently
opposed by Israel.
In a statement issued following the vote, Israeli Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon expressed disappointment in the Obama administration.
“It was to be expected that Israel’s
greatest ally would act in accordance with the values that we share and that
they would have vetoed this disgraceful resolution,” Danon
said. “I have no doubt that the new US
administration and the incoming UN secretary-general will usher in a new era in
terms of the UN’s relationship with Israel.”
As Shabbat Sets in, Major Jewish and Other Pro-Israel Groups Mobilize Against Anti-Settlement UN Security Council Resolution
Just hours before Shabbat began on Friday, major Jewish and other pro-Israel
groups mobilized in an ultimately futile effort to...
Furthermore, Danon declared, “Neither the Security
Council nor UNESCO can sever the tie between the people of Israel and the land of Israel.”
The approved resolution demands, among other things, that Israel “immediately and completely cease all
settlement activities” in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
Ahead of Friday afternoon’s Security Council vote on the resolution, major
Jewish and other pro-Israel groups mobilized in an ultimately futile effort to
thwart its passage.
Following the vote, US President-elect Donald Trump tweeted tersely, “As to the
UN, things will be different after Jan. 20th.”
American Jewish Committee CEO David Harris said in a statement, “The
administration’s decision, for the first time in eight years, not to block an
anti-Israel measure at the UN Security Council is profoundly disturbing. It
only encourages diplomatic end-runs and diversionary tactics, which hinder
rather than advance the prospects for peace.”
Rabbis Marvin Hier and Abraham Cooper — the dean and
associate dean of the Simon Wiesenthal Center — stated, “Today’s abstention by
the United States at the UN Security Council’s anti-Israel resolution will only
make a negotiated peace in the Middle East much more difficult to achieve.
Given the continued explosion of terrorist assaults around the world, the UN
resolution should have demanded the end of Hamas’ presence as a prerequisite
for a two-state solution.”
World Jewish Congress President Ronald S. Lauder said, “This is a dismaying
decision by the Security Council which does nothing to enhance the role of the
United Nations in resolving the Middle East conflict, and once again singles
out Israel
for condemnation… A peace agreement cannot be imposed from the outside, but
reached only through bilateral talks between Israelis and Palestinians.”
B’nai B’rith International stated it “deeply regrets that the US did not vote
to veto this unnecessary and self-defeating resolution. This is the latest
display of obscene imbalance in how the United Nations treats Israel and
directly shows how deep the world body has sunk from its original mission of
fairness and objectivity.”
The pro-Israel education and advocacy group StandWithUs
said, “The resolution mentioned important obstacles to peace such as terrorism
and incitement to violence, but failed to hold Hamas or the Palestinian
Authority (PA) explicitly accountable for these destructive activities. On the
other hand, Israel
was directly criticized and blamed in clause after clause.”
StandWithUs CEO Roz Rothstein added, “While both
sides in this conflict are subject to criticism, placing most of the blame on Israel while
shielding Palestinian leaders from accountability is not a path to peace or
justice for either side.”
Anti-Defamation League CEO Jonathan A. Greenblatt
said, “We are outraged over the US
failure to veto this biased and unconstructive UNSC resolution on Israel. This
resolution will do little to renew peace efforts between Israel and the
Palestinians. It will only encourage further Palestinian intransigence.”
Army Takes Control of Aleppo
in Major Boost for Assad
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December
23/16/The Syrian army has retaken full control of the devastated city of Aleppo, it said Thursday,
scoring its biggest victory against opposition forces since the civil war
erupted in 2011. The announcement came after a landmark evacuation deal that
ended a ferocious month-long offensive waged on east Aleppo by government forces and allied
militia. The operation ended a battle that lasted nearly four and a half years,
and transformed the city into a worldwide symbol of bloodshed and devastation.
Thousands of inhabitants in the western part of the city -- which had remained
under the regime's control throughout the conflict -- took to the streets,
chanting slogans and shouting their jubilation despite extreme cold. Cars
crawled along, their drivers sounding their horns, and in city squares,
children had the colours of the Syrian flag painted on their cheeks. "Our
joy is immense. Life returned to Aleppo
today," said lawyer Omar Halli, who predicted
"victory over all of Syria".
An army statement said the general command "announces the return of
security to Aleppo
after its release from terrorism and terrorists, and the departure of those who
stayed there".
A rebel official said the loss was a major blow for the revolt against
President Bashar al-Assad.
"On the political level, this is a great loss," Yasser al-Youssef of the Nureddin al-Zinki rebel group told AFP. "For the revolution, it is
a period of retreat and a difficult turning point." The army announcement
came after state television said the last convoy of four buses carrying rebels
and civilians had left east Aleppo
and arrived in the government-controlled Ramussa
district south of the city. Earlier, the Red Cross said more than 4,000
fighters had left rebel-held areas in the final stages of the evacuation. -
Biggest blow -The loss of east Aleppo is the
biggest blow to Syria's
rebel movement in the nearly six-year conflict, which has killed more than
310,000 people. It puts the government in control of the country's five main
cities: Aleppo, Homs,
Hama, Damascus,
and Latakia. Syria's conflict began with anti-government
protests in March 2011 but spiralled into a civil war after a brutal government
crackdown on dissent.
It has drawn in proxy powers and attracted foreign jihadists, but successive
attempts to negotiate a political solution to the conflict have failed. Assad's
victory in Aleppo is a boon for his allies in Moscow and Tehran and a
defeat for the opposition's backers, including Saudi
Arabia, Qatar,
and some Western states. Because of the intensity of these global rivalries --
particularly between Russia
and the United States -- the
international community struggled for years to respond to the bloodshed in Syria.
"The liberation of Aleppo is not only a victory for Syria but also for
those who really contribute to the fight against terrorism, notably Russia and
Iran," state news agency SANA quoted Assad as saying before the army
announcement. The final stages of the evacuation had been hampered by heavy
snowfall and freezing temperatures. "Overnight between Wednesday and
Thursday, in one of the last stages of the evacuation, more than 4,000 fighters
were evacuated in private cars, vans, and pick-ups from eastern Aleppo," said Ingy Sedky, the spokeswoman in Syria for the International
Committee of the Red Cross. She said about 34,000 people had left rebel areas
of Aleppo under
the evacuation plan.
- Pivotal moment -Rebel forces, who seized east Aleppo in 2012, agreed to
withdraw after a month-long army offensive that drove them from more than 90
percent of their former territory. The deal was brokered by Russia, which launched air strikes in support of
Assad's regime last year, and Turkey,
which has supported the rebels. As part of the Aleppo evacuation deal, it was
agreed some residents would be allowed to leave Fuaa
and Kafraya, two Shiite-majority villages in northwestern Syria that are under siege by the Sunni Muslim
rebels. About 1,000 people have been able to leave the villages in recent days.
The evacuation of Aleppo's
rebel-held sector was a pivotal moment in a war that has triggered a major
humanitarian and refugee crisis. As well as a major strategic gain for Assad,
the withdrawal has put the spotlight on the role of powerbrokers Russia, Iran
and Turkey,
which agreed this week to guarantee new peace talks and backed expanding a
ceasefire.
- Failed peace efforts -Repeated attempts at peace for Syria have failed, but UN envoy Staffan de Mistura has said he
hopes to convene fresh talks in Geneva
in February. Once the beating heart of Syria's commercial and cultural industries,
second city Aleppo
had been split since July 2012 between rebels in the east and the government in
the west. East Aleppo became a powerful symbol for Syria's opposition, which set up
its own administration to run schools, electricity and water there. Opposition
fighters lobbed rockets into government-held territory, and regime forces
battered the east with air strikes and artillery. Moscow's military intervention in support of
Assad marked a major turning point. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu
said Thursday the Russian air force had killed 35,000 fighters in Syria
since its intervention began in September last year. Turkey launched its own campaign in
late August in support of pro-Ankara rebels, with the aim of ousting Islamic
State group jihadists as well as Kurdish militia from areas near its border.
IS released a video on Thursday purportedly showing two captured Turkish
soldiers being burned alive, after Ankara vowed to fight "terror" in
Syria in response to 16 of its troops being killed in battle. The 19-minute
video, showing two uniformed men being hauled from a cage before being bound
and torched, was posted on jihadist websites and was supposedly shot in the
IS-declared "Aleppo Province" in northern Syria. Turkish air strikes
meanwhile killed at least 47 civilians including 14 children in the IS-held
town of Al-Bab,
which Turkish forces have been seeking to capture for weeks, a monitoring group
said. It was not possible to verify the claim.
Putin Hails Aleppo Recapture, Moves to
Expand Syria Presence
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December
23/16/Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday the recapture of the
devastated city of Aleppo
by Syrian regime forces was a "very important" step towards
stabilising the war-torn country. "The liberation of Aleppo
from radical elements is a very important part of the normalisation in Syria, and I
hope, for the region overall," Putin told defence minister Sergei Shoigu in a meeting, the Kremlin said. The Syrian army said
late Thursday that it had retaken full control of Aleppo, scoring its biggest victory against
opposition forces since the civil war erupted in 2011. The Kremlin strongman
said that after the ouster of rebels from Aleppo,
Moscow will now
look to end fighting across the country. "Everything needs to be done for
fighting to stop on all Syrian territory," Putin said. "In any case,
we will strive toward this."Putin said during
his annual press conference Friday that he hoped that fresh peace talks could
get all sides in the conflict to agree to a nationwide ceasefire. "The
next step must be the conclusion of a ceasefire agreement on all of Syria's
territory," he said. Putin said that the presidents of Turkey, Iran
and Syria had agreed to take
part in new peace talks, which Russia
had proposed take place in the Kazakh capital Astana. Moscow
has been conducting a bombing campaign in Syria in support of long-time ally
President Bashar al-Assad since September 2015 and
has taken steps to boost its presence in the country. Russia forged a deal with Turkey -- which supports groups seeking to topple
Assad -- that saw rebel fighters and civilians leave Aleppo. Shoigu said
Friday that some 34,000 people had been evacuated from rebel-held eastern Aleppo since December 15.
The Kremlin said Friday that Putin had signed an order to expand Russia's naval facility in the Syrian city of Tartus
and allow Russian warships into Syrian waters. Russia's
defence ministry said in October that Moscow
was poised to transform the Tartus facility into a
permanent base, without providing a timeline for its transformation. Putin that
month approved a law ratifying Moscow's deal
with Damascus to deploy its forces in the
country indefinitely, firming Russia's
long-term presence in the country. Russia's
bombardment of Aleppo
saw the West levelling accusations of war crimes that stung the Kremlin and
further strained its fragile relations with the West.
In Aleppo,
Assad Supporters Shout their Joy after Regime Victory
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December
23/16/Thousands of people in western Aleppo
took to the streets Thursday, rejoicing in the Syrian regime's operation to
retake the eastern side of their city from rebels after a years-long battle.
Celebratory gunfire began to erupt and crowds began to fill the streets
as soon as the army announced the last rebels had left east Aleppo. The western side of the city had been
under the control of President Bashar al-Assad's
forces throughout the conflict, and also suffered heavy shelling and loss of
life. "We've been waiting five years for this. We have suffered, what with
the rebels, the water shortages and the power cuts," said Rana al-Salem, 29, as tears welled in her eyes and noise
rose to a crescendo in the background. Cars crawled along, their drivers
sounding their horns, and in city squares, children had the colours of the
Syrian flag painted on their cheeks. Some carried portraits of Assad or the
flags of Syria and Russia, whose
air raids against the rebels were a turning point. "Our joy is immense.
Life returned to Aleppo today," said lawyer
Omar Halli, who predicted "victory over all of Syria".
"God, Syria,
Bashar are all we need," "Hey, hey, hey, Aleppo," "With our soul, our blood, we sacrifice
ourselves for Syria!," some chanted. Some took selfies
in the middle of the crowd, and others let off fireworks. "My mother swore
that I would only get married in our house, in the Old City,"
a 26-year-old man who gave his name as Assaad, told
AFP. "I am going to go back to our house and build another floor on it,
and I'll be living there after my wedding," he vowed. Centuries old and
studded with historic stone buildings, the Old City
became a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1986. But in the battle of Aleppo, the quarter was
on the frontline, between the rebel-held east and regime-held west. In 2013,
the UN agency placed it on its list of cultural heritage that was at risk. Aleppo, Syria's
second city, was an economic powerhouse for the
country before the war, and locally-born businessman Aly
Akkam predicted it would rise once more. "Aleppo will bounce back even stronger," Akkam said, adding he planned to return to the Old City
where he had a textile shop that he had to abandon. The loss of east Aleppo is the biggest blow to the rebel movement in Syria's nearly
six-year conflict, which has killed more than 310,000 people.
Wednesday's announcement came after a landmark evacuation deal that ended
a month-long offensive by government forces and allied militia.
88 Dead in Turkish Raids on IS-Held Syria Town
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December
23/16/At least 88 civilians have been killed in 24 hours of Turkish air strikes
on an Islamic State group bastion in northern Syria, a monitoring group said
Friday. A barrage of raids hit Al-Bab on Thursday,
killing 72 civilians including 21 children, according to the Syrian Observatory
for Human Rights. Bombardment continued on Friday, leaving another 16 civilians
dead, including three children. "Eighty-eight civilians have been killed
in 24 hours," Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP. He said it was the bloodiest attack by
Turkish forces that his monitoring group had recorded since Ankara
began its intervention in Syria
in late August. The Observatory says it determines whose planes carry out raids
according to their type, location, flight patterns and the munitions involved.
Turkish forces and their Syrian rebel allies have been seeking to capture Al-Bab, about 25 kilometres (15 miles) from the northern
Syrian border, for weeks. On Thursday, IS released a video purportedly showing
two captured Turkish soldiers being burned alive, after Ankara vowed to respond
to 16 of its troops being killed in the fight against the jihadist group.
Turkish troops entered Syria
on August 24 in support of pro-Ankara Syrian rebels,
with the aim of ousting IS jihadists as well as Kurdish militia from the border
area.
Turkish forces regularly carry out air strikes in support of the ground
operation in Syria,
but officials insist that the utmost is done to avoid civilian casualties.
IS 'Burns Turkish Troops Alive'
after Ankara Vows no Let-Up
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December
23/16/The Islamic State jihadist group has released a video purportedly showing
two captured Turkish soldiers being burned alive, after Ankara vowed to fight
"terror" in Syria in response to 16 of its troops being killed in
battle.
The 19-minute video, showing two uniformed men being hauled from a cage
before being bound and torched, was posted on jihadist websites and was
supposedly shot in the IS-declared "Aleppo Province" in northern
Syria. Speaking in Turkish, the killer of the two men criticises Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and calls for "destruction to be sowed"
in Turkey.
The shocking images recall the killing of Maaz al-Kassasbeh, a Jordanian fighter pilot, who was captured by
the jihadists when his plane went down in Syria in December 2014, and was
later burned alive in a cage. The IS-linked news agency Amaq
said last month that the jihadists had kidnapped two Turkish soldiers, and the
Turkish army separately said it had lost contact with two of its men. The video's
release comes a day after 16 Turkish soldiers were killed by IS fighters in Ankara's biggest loss so far in its unprecedented
incursion into Syria.
They were killed in a succession of attacks around the Syrian town of Al-Bab
on Wednesday that included three suicide car bombings.
The heavy toll showed the intensifying battle for the town, which Turkish
forces have been seeking to capture for weeks in the biggest test of their
four-month incursion into Syria. Turkish troops entered Syria on August 24 in support of
pro-Ankara Syrian rebels, with the aim of ousting IS
jihadists as well as Kurdish militia from the border area. At least 38 Turkish
soldiers have been killed in the operation, which the Turkish government has
dubbed Euphrates Shield. Speaking earlier Thursday, Erdogan
vowed no let-up in the ongoing campaign."Yes,
maybe we will have to lay martyrs to rest," he said in a speech in Ankara. "But we are
determined to preserve their memory and protect what they left us and continue
this struggle."Turkey, he said, "is engaged
in its most serious struggle since the war of independence" that led to
the creation of the modern state in 1923. Turkish television showed distraught
relatives of the dead dealing with the news and putting national flags outside
their homes.
- 'Difficult fight' -The earlier stages of Turkey's
campaign proceeded with lightning speed and the border town of Jarabulus was taken
on the first day of the offensive.
But the army has suffered increasing casualties in the fight for Al-Bab -- 25 kilometres (15 miles) from the border. Defence
Minister Fikri Isik told
parliament on Thursday that 1,005 IS jihadists and 299 fighters affiliated to
the Kurdish Peoples' Protection Units (YPG) had been killed in the operation so
far. Ankara considers the YPG a terror group,
even though it works together with the United States as an ally in the
fight against IS. The army said the latest clashes erupted around a weapons
depot that had been used by IS for the last two years.
Al-Bab lies 35 kilometres northeast of Aleppo, which is now
under control of government forces in the biggest defeat for rebels in the
civil war. Turkey has been a
key backer of the rebels and insists the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad is the only way to bring peace to Syria. But Ankara has stayed out of the most recent battle for Aleppo and worked with Assad's key ally Russia to
broker evacuations from the city. Turkish air strikes on Al-Bab
meanwhile killed at least 47 civilians including 14 children and nine women,
the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.There
was no immediate response from the government to the claim.
Turkey
has also been hit at home by the bloodiest attacks in its modern history, which
it blames on jihadists and Kurdish militants. The government is also carrying
out a wide-ranging crackdown following an attempted coup in July, which it says
was orchestrated by the group of an exiled cleric, Fethullah
Gulen.
Coalition Used Banned Cluster Bombs
in Yemen
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December
23/16/The Saudi-led coalition battling rebels in Yemen used banned cluster
bombs in attacks near two schools this month, Human Rights Watch said Friday.
The watchdog said that the alliance fired Brazilian-made rockets containing the
outlawed munitions on December 6, near two schools in the Huthi
rebel stronghold province
of Saada,
killing two civilians and wounding six including a child. That incident came a
day after Saudi Arabia
joined the US and Brazil in
abstaining from a UN General Assembly vote that overwhelmingly endorsed an
international ban on cluster bomb use. "Brazil should be on notice that its
rockets are being used in unlawful attacks in the Yemeni war," said HRW
arms director Steve Goose. "Cluster munitions are prohibited weapons that
should never be used under any circumstances due to the harm inflicted on
civilians. Brazil
should make an immediate commitment to ending production and export of cluster munitions."The weapons can contain dozens of smaller bomblets that disperse over large areas, often continuing
to kill and maim civilians long after they are dropped. The Saudi-led coalition
this week said it had made "limited use" of British-made cluster
bombs, a type of weapon which 100 countries have already pledged not to use.
The alliance, which intervened in support of Yemen's government in March 2015
after the Huthis overran much of the country's
northern and central regions, has come under repeated criticism over civilian
casualties. Since then, the war has killed more than 7,000 people and wounded nearly
37,000, the United Nations says.
Egypt
Agrees to UN Israel Vote Delay in Call with Trump
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December
23/16/Egypt said Friday it agreed to delay a vote on a UN Security Council
resolution against Israeli settlements during a phone call between President
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and US President-elect Donald
Trump. Egypt on Thursday
requested that the vote be postponed a day after it submitted the draft text to
the council, which prompted Israel
to reach out to Trump to block a resolution. Trump issued a statement demanding
that Washington
exercise a veto and then called Sisi. In a statement
on Friday, the Egyptian presidency said the phone call "touched on the
draft resolution... on Israeli settlements". "The two leaders agreed
on the importance of giving the new administration a chance to deal
comprehensively with all the aspects of the Palestinian cause to achieve a
comprehensive settlement," it said. The Egyptian turnaround surprised many
but follows repeated expressions of admiration for Trump from Sisi, a former military chief who overthrew his Islamist
predecessor in 2013 in a move condemned by President Barack Obama. Israel had launched a frantic lobbying effort to
pressure Egypt to drop the
bid and reached out to its supporters in the United States and at the Security
Council for support. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Washington to block the
draft, pointing to years of US willingness "to stand up in the UN and veto
anti-Israel resolutions." - Buried indefinitely - Israeli Ambassador Danny
Danon described the draft as "disgraceful"
and said his government was deploying "diplomatic efforts on all
fronts." CNN reported that Israel
reached out to Trump for help to pressure the Obama administration. The network
quoted a senior Israeli official as saying Israel "implored the White
House not to go ahead and told them that if they did, we would have no choice
but to reach out to President-elect Trump." Trump's intervention and the
Egyptian decision to postpone the vote appeared to have caught Washington offguard, with US Secretary of
State John Kerry cancelling plans for a speech laying out a vision for the
Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Kerry spoke to Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry on Wednesday and then,
after the Egyptian decision, to Netanyahu on Thursday. Obama's administration
has expressed mounting anger over the continued expansion of Jewish settlements
in the occupied Palestinian West Bank, and speculation has grown that he could
launch another initiative before leaving office next month. A senior Security
Council diplomat suggested the motion could be buried indefinitely. "There
was a window of opportunity. Whether that window is still there is really not
clear," said a Western diplomat. Trump, who campaigned on a promise to
recognise Jerusalem as Israel's capital, had bluntly said Washington should use
its veto to block the resolution.
"The resolution being considered at the United Nations Security
Council regarding Israel
should be vetoed," he said in a statement. "As the United States has
long maintained, peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians will only come
through direct negotiations between the parties, and not through the imposition
of terms by the United Nations." - Stalled peace efforts -Trump has chosen
as ambassador to Israel the hardliner David Friedman, who has said Washington
will not pressure Israel to curtail settlement building in the occupied West
Bank. Arab ambassadors held an emergency meeting at the United Nations to press
Egypt to move ahead with a
vote but an Arab League committee decided after meeting in Cairo to continue talks on the motion.
Palestinian envoy Jamal al-Shobaki told reporters in Cairo that Egypt
asked for more time and that there would be discussions over the next two days
on the next step.
Israeli settlements are seen as a major stumbling block to peace efforts,
as they are built on land the Palestinians see as part of their future state.
The United Nations maintains that settlements are illegal, but UN officials
have reported a surge in construction over the past months.
The draft resolution demands that "Israel
immediately and completely cease all settlement activities in the occupied
Palestinian territory, including East Jerusalem."It states that Israeli settlements have "no
legal validity" and are "dangerously imperilling the viability of the
two-state solution" that would see an independent Palestine
co-exist alongside Israel.
The Middle East peace process has been comatose since a US initiative
to re-launch peace talks collapsed in April 2014. France has announced plans to host
an international conference on January 15 to try to restart talks based on the
two-state solution.
Berlin attack suspect Anis Amri
shot dead by police in Milan
Middle East Eye/December 23/16
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/berlin-attack-suspect-shot-dead-milan-1904575467
A Tunisian man wanted on suspicion of carrying out a deadly lorry attack on a
Christmas market in Berlin has been killed in
a shootout with police in the Italian city of Milan,
Italy's
interior minister said on Friday.
Speaking at a press conference, Marco Minniti said
Anis Amri had been fatally shot after being stopped
in a car for a routine identity check at about 3am (02:00 GMT).
Identity checks had established "without a shadow of doubt" that the
dead man was Amri, Minniti
said.
According to Italian media reports, Amri had pulled
out a pistol after being stopped and subsequently been shot himself.
A Europe-wide manhunt had been under way for Amri, a
24-year-old asylum seeker, who German investigators had said they believed was the likely perpetrator of Monday's attack in
which 12 people were killed and 49 were injured.
A police notice lists six different aliases used by Amri,
born on 22 December 1992, who at times tried to pass himself off as an Egyptian
or Lebanese national.
Several German media outlets on Thursday said Amri's
fingerprints had been found on the door of the truck that ploughed through the
crowds.
Authorities had warned that Amri was potentially
"armed and dangerous" and had offered a reward of €100,000 ($104,000)
for information leading to his arrest.
The attack was subsequently claimed by the Islamic State (IS) group. The
IS-linked news agency Amaq released another statement
on Friday in which they said a "security source" had told them that
the agent "who executed the Berlin
attack executed another attack against an Italian police patrol in Milano city,
where he was killed during a shootout."
The agency also released a video in which Amri
appeared to pledge allegience to the IS emir Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
Amri was reportedly linked to Ahmad Abdulazziz, also known as Abu Walaa,
an Iraqi-born preacher based in the German town of Hildesheim who was arrested in November.
In Tunisia, Amri's family expressed shock on Wednesday when they were
questioned by anti-terrorism police and learned that Amri
was wanted across Europe.
"I can't believe my brother could do such a thing," his sister Najoua told the AFP news agency.
"He never made us feel there was anything wrong. We were in touch through Facebook and he was always smiling and cheerful."
His brother, Abdelkader, said: "When I saw the
picture of my brother in the media, I couldn't believe my eyes. I'm in shock,
and can't believe it's him who committed this crime."
The hunt for Amri has cast scrutiny on German
investigators after a Pakistani man was initially arrested over the attack but
later released.
Amri was not identified as a suspect until late on
Tuesday, though police confirmed on Wednesday that he had been under covert
surveillance for several months this year.
Iran Regime MP Admits Presence of
Terrorist Quds Force Commander in Aleppo
Friday, 23 December 2016/NCRI - Member of Iranian regime’s parliament on
Wednesday December 21 admitted that Qassem Soleimani, commander of terrorist Quds
Force, was present in Syria and said his trip to Aleppo was done at the request
of Syrian government officials. Javad Karimi Qodousi, member of the
parliament’s security commission, in an interview with Mizan
news agency affiliated to the regime’s Judiciary said “We will never obey or
adhere to the oppressive and unjust laws of international system” and reiterated:
“Qassem Soleimani’s trip to
the city of Aleppo in Syria was done at the request of the Syrian government
officials in order to provide strategic guidelines and military cooperation.
Therefore, the U.S.
officials cannot do anything legally and politically in this regard.” It should
be noted that John Kerby, State Department’s
spokesperson, said on Monday that Qassem Soleimani’s trip outside Iran is violation of the Security
Council’s resolution 2231. He reiterated that the resolution mentions Soleimani’s name in the sanctions list as a natural person
facing travel ban and asset freeze. Continuing the interview, Javad Qodousi claimed: “May the
day comes when Commander Soleimani attends New York and London
without the permission of Americans because huge developments are emerging in
the U.S. and Europe driving the people of these countries to Islam.”
Following occupation of Aleppo and the killings and massacre of the city’s
innocent people by Iranian regime mercenaries and affiliated militias with
Russian air support, the images of the terrorist Quds
Force commander in Aleppo were published in social networks and
Persian-language websites.Indeed, the mullahs ruling
Iran wanted to express in their own believe sabre-rattling or show of power
saying it was Iran regime that occupied Aleppo, but it is clear to all that if
it wasn’t for Russian airstrikes and heavy bombing, the Iranian regime and its
affiliated militias and mercenaries would have never been able to achieve this
so-called “victory” at the expense of killings and massacre of innocent people
of Aleppo and destruction of the city.
Iran: Political Prisoner Expresses
Sympathy and Support for People of Syria
Friday, 23 December 2016/NCRI - Ebrahim Firouzi, Christian political prisoner incarcerated in Gohardasht prison in Karaj, in a letter to George Sabra, former President of Syrian National Coalition, while
expressing sympathy, announced his support for the people of Syria.
In part of his letter, the political prisoner writes: “It is not only me and
you but also our nations that are the victims of the aggressive policies of the
mullahs’ regime ruling Iran.
We have a common pain and are sympathetic because for the regime of Velayat-e faqih, which is an
example of Nazism today, the people of Iran and Syria do not matter and the
mullahs would not hesitate to destroy the world in order to satisfy their sense
and ambition of dominating the world if they find it necessary.”“The
reactionary regime ruling Iran
has taken backward the civil societies of our countries and the two nations
hope for establishing an advanced and democratic society is the resistance that
emerges in us with the power of God.”
Iran: Over 1200 Citizens Arrested in
Tehran in 8 Months for Using Cyberspace
Friday, 23 December 2016 /NCRI - Iran regime’s police chief in Tehran announced
that the capital city’s cyber-police have arrested over 1200 people in Tehran
in the first 8 months of the year on charges related to cyberspace and social
media activity. According to state-run ISNA news agency, Tehran’s Police chief,
Hossein Sajedi-Nia,
described the repressive measures and performance of Tehran’s cyber-police in
the first 8 months of the year and said: “Dealing with violations and crimes in
cyberspace is one of the priorities of police in Tehran, and in this regard,
officers of Fata Police (cyber-police) monitor and observe cyberspace and
social media activities, deal with the crimes and violations, and address the complaints.”Announcing that more than 1200 cyberspace
activists were arrested in 8 months, Sajedi-Nia said:
“In the first 8 months of the year, 986 men and 298 women accused of committing
cyberspace violation were identified and arrested by Tehran’s Fata Police.”The
police chief then expressed Iranian regime’s fear of cyberspace and social
media under existing threat and damages of cyberspace and said: “Cyberspace is
a very extensive and complex world that easily puts untrained users into
trouble, and if the user does not have a certain goal, he (or she) would
perhaps fall into the trap of deviation and abuse by opportunistic people.”It should be noted that the approach by millions of
young Iranians towards internet and turning to cyberspace and social media to
exchange information freely has extremely terrified the regime, and despite Iranian
regime’s pleas and requests from the public to refuse using cyberspace, and
despite implementing censorship and filtering as well as threatening and
arresting people for their cyberspace activities, more and more people,
especially informed young people, are using cyberspace.
Despite the Lifting of Sanctions,
Why Iran's
Economy Has Plunged Into Recession? – Part 5-5
Friday, 23 December 2016/NCRI - A year after signing the nuclear deal,
while significant problems such as export restrictions and the prohibition of
the international bank transfer (swift) have been resolved a transparent
atmosphere is created to identify the radical economic problems of Iran.
In previous parts, to answer the main question: “why the recession is
becoming deeper while the sanctions are lifted and the international
transaction with Iran
has been opened.” We examined the following factors in Iran’s economy:
• Lack of security and stability
• Domination of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist in the country
• Power struggle
• Financial instability
• Widespread corruption
• Lack of competition and cumbersome regulations
• And International Barriers, the following is the final part
Part five:
International Barriers
the Vali-e-faqih Khamenei
said in his public speech in March this year that ”Today, throughout the
western countries and those influenced by them, we still have difficulties
performing our banking transactions, getting our money back from their banks,
and doing business deals which require involvement of their banks; once
investigated, it turns out that they’re afraid of the Americans. This is what
we see today in front of our eyes; a total loss.”
In his meeting with Italy’s
prime minister in Tehran
on April 12, Khamenei said that “the important issue
regarding these visits and negotiations with foreign countries,
is that the agreements be implemented. Some governments and European companies
are visiting Iran and conducting negotiations, but the result of these
negotiations have not yet been significant… the Americans do not perform their
obligations in the nuclear deal as they should and are scaring the other
parties away from collaboration with Iran.”
Earlier, the US
President Barak Obama had said in his speech on 1 April 2016 that “Iran
should ensure the international community that it will stop its
provocative measures which causes panic and concern among the investors.
When Iran launches
intercontinental ballistic missiles marked with “Israel must be wiped out”, these
measures contain the message that the geopolitical risks are still in place,
risks which make the investors concerned. Sending missiles for Hezbollah causes
distrust among the investors. Iran
needs to realize that the investors tend to go to a country where they feel
secure.”
These statements give a clear picture of the obstacles which have
basically stopped Iran’s
financial transactions with the West: on one hand, there are Iran’s measures
such as supporting terrorism, implementing a continued aggressive policy in the
region, development and test-firing of ballistic missiles despite being in
violation of the UN Security Council Resolution 2231, and continuous human
rights violations.
On the other hand, there is a deep distrust and uncertainty among Western
banks and companies who are not willing to endanger their assets in Iran. As a
result, according to the July 16th report of Iran’s Foreign Ministry to the
Parliament, ”transfer and conversion of currencies are
still subjected to some restrictions” … “one of the current challenges” is the
effect the non-lifted sanctions, like those related to missile program or human
rights, have on nuclear sanctions, with the least of them being “psychological
effects and causing confusion among businesses.”
Despite being permitted to provide the Iranian government with American
Dollar Bills, foreign banks refuse to transfer US Dollar for natural and legal
persons associated with of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s government.”
“Many expectations need a longer time in order to be met” and “from a
technical and operational point of view, going back to the pre-sanctions state
will definitely take time, just like reconstructing a country ruined by a
10-year-old war.”
“Being completely disconnected from the international financial system”,
the Iranian banks are not familiar with the changes made in the banking sector
and issues like disciplinary rules on combating against money laundering and
funding terrorist groups.
“Enjoying huge profits thanks to sanctions, some dealers take any
opportunity to destroy the post nuclear deal era, by taking advantage of or
even fueling the political differences.“
This situation has made trading with Iran for foreigners be subjected to
numerous political and legal risks, some of which are as follows:
Foreign investors are subject to extremely high risks associated with
financial corruption (particularly bribery), especially the risk of severe
financial and criminal penalties due to violating the US “Foreign Corrupt
Practices Act” as well as the British “Bribery Act.”
Risks related to arms export, considering Iran’s
active involvement in sending weapons to Bashar
Assad’s dictatorship as well as terrorist and militia groups in the Middle East. This puts private companies involved in
providing security services at serious risks. Also companies working in
telecommunication and information technology are faced with critical
challenges.
Considering numerous resolutions issued by the UN General Assembly on
Iran’s human rights violations, with the latest one in December 2015, the companies
trading with Iran are subject to the risk of being accused of providing a
barbaric dictatorship with the tools used in torture, repression, eavesdropping
and internet censorship.
Companies active in the internet and digital communications sector that
are doing business with Iran are subject to the risk of violating the laws to
ensure net neutrality, freedom of expression and protecting personal privacy,
by participating in operations that promote violence and hatred against
followers of religions, women and oppressed ethnic groups.
Investing and exporting companies are obliged to follow the so-called Due
Diligence Procedures which comply with international standards contained in the
“UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights” and the “OECD Guidelines
for Multinational Enterprises.”
It is very unlikely that any company in this situation could follow the
due diligence procedures when doing business with Iran.
A more important risk is to get involved in money laundering operations
which is being actively practiced by the Iranian banks and companies.
Another risk is doing business with companies and entities involved in
funding terrorist groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Hezbollah
International Financing Prevention Act was approved by US Congress in 2015,
following which the Lebanese Central Bank blocked nearly 100 bank accounts
linked to Hezbollah at the request of the United States. Afterwards,
Hezbollah’s leader Hassand Nasrallah
said in a public speech that “these restrictions have no effect on Hezbollah’s
situation as the group’s financial resources are coming not from banks, but
from Iran… the money reaches
us the same way the missiles with which we threaten Israel do.”
Besides, there is the risk that the foreign companies be punished by the United States
for doing business with Iranian companies that are supporting the Quds Force. For instance, on May 20, the US Treasury
imposed sanctions on the Iraqi “Al Naser” and the UAE
“Sky Blue Bird“ companies for helping Mahan Air by acting as mediators in
acquiring second-hand Airbus aircrafts for the Iranian company. Mahan Air is
widely known as the airline supporting the Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force.
The End
Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis
& editorials from miscellaneous sources published on on
December 23-24/16
Iran to tread warily
despite victories, say experts
The Weekend Australian/December 23/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/12/23/50447/
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/iran-to-tread-warily-despite-victories-say-experts/news-story/e0f74a64ac4fdfa599861d52e71cdf60
Iran has scored a string of victories across the Middle East, and decades of isolation
mean it is well-placed to weather the uncertainties of a Trump presidency.
But fears that it could dominate the region are overblown, experts say. Having
rarely commented on its role in the Syrian conflict, Tehran
has been suddenly full of self-congratulation at the imminent defeat of rebel
forces in Aleppo.
“The liberation of Aleppo
... reinforces the political strength of Islamic Republic of Iran. The new US president must accept the reality that Iran is the
leading power in the region,” Yahya Safavi, top foreign policy adviser to Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said last week.
The dominoes appear to have fallen in Iranian President Hasan
Rowhani’s favour in recent weeks. His government’s
support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is
paying off, and Iran’s
mortal enemy, Islamic State, could soon be ousted
from Mosul in Iraq.
In Lebanon,
the protracted debate over who should be president ended in success for former
general Michel Aoun, who is allied to the
Iran-backed Shia movement Hezbollah.
Iran has also seen billions
of dollars in assets and oil sales unfrozen by last year’s nuclear deal with
world powers, and its allies in Yemen,
the Shia Huthi rebels, have
held on despite a year of crippling bombardment by a Saudi-led coalition.
And then there’s the imminent arrival of Donald Trump.
The US president-elect has
surrounded himself with fiercely anti-Iran advisers, but has also criticised Iran’s main regional rival, Saudi Arabia, for its reliance on US support and
spreading fundamentalist Islam.
After decades of isolation, Iran
might be the best-placed to deal with the uncertainty
of Mr Trump, said Adnan
Tabatabai, Iran
analyst and CEO of Germany-based think tank CARPO. “For Iran, it’s much easier not to rely on the US because they haven’t been doing that for the
past three decades, whereas it’s a major change for Saudi
Arabia and other regional rivals of Iran to stop counting on the US.”
The Saudis have been facing a host of setbacks. Their economy has been battered
by low oil prices, the rebels they support in Syria
are on the run, and their Western allies are disturbed by the Yemen bombing
campaign.
But fears that Iran could
dominate the Middle East are unfounded,
analysts say.
“A lot of Iran’s
successes in the region are really to do with the failures of others. We
shouldn’t overestimate its capacities,” Mr Tabatabai
said.
Foad Izadi, a conservative
professor of world politics at Tehran University, said support for Assad’s
bloody offensive was a necessary evil, and ultimately defensive in nature.
“If Syria falls, you’ll
either get a pro-Israeli government there, or you get the Islamic State, or you
get Libya.
Those are not good options for us,” he said.
“If Syria breaks up, then Iraq breaks up,
and that’s right next door. This isn’t about dominating the region — it’s about
preventing permanent war.”
Iran
also faces limits to expanding its power. “Iran
is a Shia power in a Sunni-majority region,” said Aram
Nerguizian of the Centre for Strategic and
International Studies in Washington.
“Neither side wants all-out war. At some point they have to accept some degree
of influence for the other side.”
Mr Nerguizian said the Saudis still had major
advantages, not least the billions of dollars in military hardware purchased
from Western allies. “Folks have been projecting the collapse of the House of
Saud for 60 years and it hasn’t happened,” he said. “For all their instability,
the Gulf countries are far more integrated into the global economy than Iran and still
have the support of key Western allies.”AFP
The Saudis at the UN Human Rights Council
Giulio Meotti/Gatestone
Institute/December 23/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/12/23/giulio-meottigatestone-institute-the-saudis-at-the-un-human-rights-council/
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/9628/saudis-human-rights-council
While the medieval Saudi system of justice was flogging the gentle blogger Raif Badawi 50 out of the
stipulated 1000 lashes, a delegation of UN bureaucrats landed in Jeddah to
promote an international conference on religious freedom.
The Saudis use these international seats to advance their oppressive agenda,
and to press the Western democracies to punish criticism of Islam.
Through the shameful trial of Geert Wilders, Dutch
authorities sent a message of surrender to the Saudis and other rogue Islamic
regimes that punish dissent.
Did the Dutch prosecute Wilders on behalf of the Saudis, who threatened to
impose sanctions on the Netherlands?
The UN and the Western democracies are putting the defense
of human rights and freedom in the hands of one the world's worst violators of
religious and intellectual freedom.
Sharia courts are already fully operating in the Netherlands.
They know something about "human rights": stoning, flogging and chopping
off heads.
Who will rescue our right to speak?
"My husband has been languishing in a Saudi prison since June 17th, 2012.
Our children live with me in the city of Sherbrooke, Québec in Canada. They
have not seen their father for five years now... On January 9, 2015, Raif received the first 50 lashes... Will members of the
United Nations Human Rights Council join the European Parliament and ask for Raif's release?"
Unfortunately, the UN members did not respond to this appeal by Ensaf Haidar, the fearless wife
of the most famous blogger of the Arab world, the gentle Raif
Badawi, imprisoned and flogged by the Saudis for his
secular ideas. A few days after Ensaf's appeal, the
United Nations welcomed Badawi's executioners, the
Saudis, at the UN Human Rights Council. The Saudi representative, Abdulaziz Alwasil, will be
decisive on three major issues at the UN Palace of Nations in Geneva: women, religious freedom and the
system of justice.
What a great achievement for Saudi
Arabia: The country flogs poets and
bloggers, and its sheikhs have no other concern than filling their sumptuous
palaces with wives and concubines, and then stoning them to death if they
become "adulterous". Saudi
Arabia is where a Shiite cleric was publicly
beheaded and where a Christian cannot wear a tunic or a cross.
The British government supported the Saudi bid to be re-elected at the Human
Rights Council (British Prime Minister Theresa May was urged in vain to oppose
the Saudi election to the Geneva
body). The Obama Administration did the same: Samantha Powers, the U.S. ambassador
at the UN, called the Saudi bid at the UN a "procedural position".
Hillel Neuer, the director of UN Watch, captured the
difference between realpolitik and the betrayal of
Western values when he said: "Making an alliance with Stalin to stop
Hitler is one thing; it's quite another to say Stalin is a champion of human
rights".
A few days after the Saudi bid at the UN Human Rights Council, the Kingdom and
the office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights held a two-day workshop
in the Saudi capital to discuss the "evolution of the concept of human
rights in the framework of international and regional human rights
systems". Evolution of the concept human rights?
Ask Raif Badawi, he knows
better than the UN bureaucrats.
Raif Badawi and his children, before he was jailed.
The Saudis use these international seats to advance their oppressive agenda,
and to press the Western democracies to punish criticism of Islam. The Saudis,
in fact, considered curbing trade with the Netherlands
over Geert Wilders, who has just been found guilty in
a court in The Hague
for "inciting discrimination and insulting a minority group". By
asking at a public rally if people wanted "fewer Moroccans" in the Netherlands,
Wilders was publicly declaring his alarm over the exploding crime rate by
Moroccan Muslims in the country.
Through this shameful trial, the Dutch authorities sent a message of surrender
to the Saudis and other rogue Islamic regimes which punish dissent. Did the
Dutch prosecute Wilders on behalf of the Saudis, who threatened to impose
sanctions on the Netherlands?
It was reported that the Council of Saudi Chambers received a letter from
higher Saudi authorities urging it not to involve Dutch companies in local
projects either directly or indirectly.
The Saudis, through the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), have been
pivotal in advancing the non-binding U.N. Resolution 62/154, "Combating
defamation of religions", which extends protection to opinions and to
ideas, and grants people immunity from being "offended". This is
exactly what happened with Wilders: he was on trial for stating his opinion,
that there should be "fewer Moroccans" in the Netherlands.
Some people said they were offended by that. Oddly, however, no one appears to
have been offended by much worse remarks, said by politicians from the
"Left":
"We also have sh*t Moroccans over here."
Rob Oudkerk, Dutch Labour Party (PvDA)
politician.
"We must humiliate Moroccans." Hans Spekman,
PvDA politician.
"Moroccans have the ethnic monopoly on trouble-making." Diederik Samsom, PvDA politician.
The United Nations and the Western democracies are putting the defense of human rights and freedom in the hands of one the
world's worst violators of religious and intellectual freedom. Middle East expert Paul Marshall blasted the
"ongoing campaign by the Saudi-based Organization of the Islamic
Conference which has given the anti-blasphemy movement weight and
traction".
While the medieval Saudi system of justice was flogging the gentle blogger Raif Badawi 50 out of 1000
lashes, a delegation of UN bureaucrats landed in Jeddah to promote an
international conference on religious freedom. No, it is not a joke. Joachim Rücker, President of the UN Human Rights Council, was
photographed smiling side by side with the Wahhabi
Islamic guardians. The Obama Administration sent two envoys to the Saudi
conference, the ambassador for religious freedom, David Saperstein, and Arsalan Suleman, an envoy at the
Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Also attending was Heiner
Bielefeldt, the UN special envoy for religious
freedom, a noted scholar of Immanuel Kant (how did the Enlightenment collapse
so far, so fast?).
Women, Christians, secular bloggers, Western "blasphemers", brave
Dutch MPs: be warned! The muttawayyin, the Saudi
religious police patrolling the Kingdom's streets to ensure respect for the
Koran, are already in Europe's streets. Just
ask France's
satirical magazine, Charlie Hebdo. A few days after
12 people were butchered at the offices of Charlie Hebdo,
as well as four Jews at a grocery store, Saudi officials were allowed to march
in Paris along
with the terrorists' victims and world leaders. And the Saudis had just flogged
a blogger for "blasphemy". Will Geert
Wilders be next? Sharia courts are already fully
operating in the Netherlands.
They know something about "human rights": stoning, flogging and
chopping off heads.
But who will rescue our right to speak?
**Giulio Meotti, Cultural
Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and
author.
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The
articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of
Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced,
copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone
Institute.
Has the United Nations perished in Aleppo too?
Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/December 23/16
On the ruins of the cataclysmic events of the Second
World War, world leaders swore to rebuild a new and a better world in which the
horrors of the past and the victimization of the innocent would never occur
again. Forming the United Nations was a vital pillar of this new order.
In its charter, the newly formed international organization set out to maintain
global peace and security through effective collective measures for the
prevention and elimination of mass violence caused by war and conflict. It
promised to eradicate acts of aggression or other breaches of the peace through
conformity with the principles of justice and international law.
To make good on these promises the Security Council was entrusted with ensuring
prompt and effective action by the nascent organization in defending human
rights in cases such as the one that has unfolded in Aleppo over the last four years.
Tragically these promises and hopes were dashed by a sad reality. Not for the
first time innocent people, women and men, young and old, were betrayed by the
international community and its supposed arm of protection for those in
desperate need, the Security Council.
It is hard not to agree whole heartedly with Ban ki-Moon,
who poignantly stated in his last press conference as the UN Secretary-General
last week that “the carnage in Syria
remains a gaping hole in the global conscience.” The outgoing chief of the UN
added that “Aleppo
is now a synonym for hell.”
No one will contest either assertion, but it is the organization he led for
nearly a decade that failed the people of Aleppo,
similar to the abandonment of the Tutsis in Rwanda,
the Bosnian Muslims in Srebrenica, and the people of Darfur
to large scale genocide. In Eastern Ukraine, Russia’s daily violent intervention
continues, unchecked and unpunished. It leaves open the question whether this
charade of collective security as a means of guaranteeing everyone’s human
rights had its day?
For countless years UN member states have discussed the desperate need to
reform the United Nations so it can reflect both the international political
landscape of the 21st century and the challenges it faces, but to no avail.
It leaves the United Nations appearing as no more than a very thin veneer,
beneath which hides the same old international system ruled by military power
and brutality as its main currency
Body of inaction
It does not take a genius to recognize that the Security Council became a body
of inaction and paralysis. The United Nations should have been a much improved
version of its predecessor the League of Nations,
which was a disastrous failure even before its inception. Its impotence
contributed to the complete collapse of the world system and the subsequent
world war that claimed the lives of tens of millions of people and the worst
genocide of our times.
Considering this, the UN may seem to be an upgraded version in terms of
collective security, but probably really only by a small margin. Wars have been
a constant fixture in world affairs since 1945, genocide and widespread war
crimes and crimes against humanity continued uncontained, and in many cases,
without the culprits facing international courts.
Ban ki-Moon’s admission of failure echoes what his
predecessor Kofi Annan expressed about Rwanda,
when he declared that “In their greatest hour of need, the world failed the
people of Rwanda.”
In a scathing criticism of the United Nation’s role in Srebrenica, the Human
Rights Watch report bluntly stated that United Nations peacekeeping officials
denied the requests from their own forces stationed within the enclave to stop
Bosnian Serb forces from overrunning it.
Consequently, systematic mass executions of thousands of civilian men and boys,
rape and other forms of abuse of civilians took place. Preventing, or at least
containing these horrors was the basis for the formation of the United Nations,
and that is where it fails time and again.
Witnessing the recurrence of these mass abuses of human rights in Aleppo, with thousands of
people still stranded in the cold winter weather, one cannot excuse the
international community for its inaction. It casts serious doubt as to whether
the United Nations is capable and willing to learn from its past failures.
Moreover, in the world of instant communication carnage and massacres are
transmitted straight to all of us as they happen, not only from Aleppo, but from across Syria. We have instantly witnessed
atrocities that included the use of chemical weapons, aerial bombardment of
schools and hospitals, rape, extrajudicial killings, systematic targeting of
civilians, the use of barrel bombs and widespread torture.
A thin veneer
These actions are carried out by governments that are
members of the UN – Syria
and Iran, not to mention Russia,
who is a permanent member of the Security Council. It leaves the United Nations
appearing as no more than a very thin veneer, beneath which hides the same old
international system ruled by military power and brutality as its main
currency.
Samantha Power, US
ambassador to the UN, ripped into Syria,
Russia and Iran in the Security Council last week, asking
them whether they have no shame in the face of the suffering they are inflicting
on the people of Aleppo.
Ms. Power, who is a genuine defender of the notion of Responsibility to
Protect, did not expect or need an answer.
No country with any trace of decency would have been involved in the killing of
more than 400,000 people, made millions of people refugees or displaced and
committed all the other well documented atrocities. However, it is also her
country, among other Western countries, that opted to stay away from active
involvement in protecting the Syrian people from their President Assad and his
unscrupulous henchmen at home and abroad. Is this not shameful too?
It left the United Nations as a toothless talking shop in which lip service is
widely paid to the supremacy of international law and human rights, while
reality outside the building on the East River in New York continues to be grim.
In Syria,
the ideal of collective security and universal human rights, in which the
international community shoulders the responsibility to protect, has suffered a
massive, maybe irreparable, setback. It is left for the new Secretary-General, António Guterres, in the new year to carry out the unenviable, perhaps impossible,
task of rebuilding the UN’s credibility. If he fails,
he may well be the last leader of this international organisation.
What will Obama do about Russian hacking?
Nothing
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/December
23/16
So what will Obama do about reports of alleged Russian hacking attempts to
interfere in the US elections? In short, the most likely answer is that he will
do nothing.
Of course, interference with the US election process would have
been, at any other time in history, a cause for war. So any
sitting US President must at least talk tough. But Obama does not have
the time to mount anything like a measured response. And he is most likely to
judge that it would serve nobody to lash out blindly.
This “measured approach” has been Obama’s hallmark modus operandi in foreign
affairs. And indeed, it was just the approach he promised he would take while
he was campaigning for office. After the years of misguided military
adventurism under President Bush, the American people welcomed this kind of
approach enthusiastically.
It is sad to say, however, that this approach has been as much a failure as the
‘bull in the china shop’ approach of Bush. In the early years, the new language
from the Leader of the Free World was welcomed everywhere. The promised reset
of policy in the Middle East sounded like just
what the world needed. It was enough to win him the Nobel Peace Prize.
But vision is not enough. In the brutal and chaotic world of geopolitical
struggles, one must be willing to put force behind one’s vision. Even, as it
turns out, when that vision is a deeply humanitarian one whose primary aim is
long term stability and peace.
America needs to overwhelm
and cripple Russia’s hacker
networks and get on the ground in Syria to effect a stable and
lasting federalization
The red line
This truth was ultimately revealed during the early days of the Syrian civil
war. The single-most notable error that Obama made during his entire
administration was to draw a red line over the use of chemical weapons against
civilians by Assad, and then to fail to intervene to enforce that red line when
the regime finally crossed it.
An American President had promised war over a humanitarian crisis where most of
the rest of the world would have agreed intervention was needed, and then he
failed to deliver. For the first time perhaps since WW2, America would
no longer be able to wield the credible threat of force as a diplomatic weapon.
This, combined with Obama’s ever-consuming concern about being drawn into the
conflicts which undermined his predecessors, gave America’s rivals just the signal
they were looking for: they could act with impunity in whatever they designated
as their “spheres of interest”. America
would not be drawn out. And the world has been a free-for-all ever since. Pax Americana crumbled.
Would it be worth to retaliate against an issue such as hacking at this point?
By now it would be too little too late for Obama. It would be the strop of
someone who knows has lost. A man of vision, ambition and
intelligence yes.
But also a man who, for all his conviction that he is “on the
right side of history”, has been repudiated by world events, and repudiated by
American democracy. The incoming President is the opposite of everything
he has stood for.
Nevertheless, a retaliation is necessary. America needs
to reassert itself on the world stage, and it needs, more than anything else,
signal that when it threatens reprisals it means business. It needs to
overwhelm and cripple Russia’s
hacker networks and get on the ground in Syria to effect a stable and
lasting federalisation.
Telling Putin to “cut it out” won’t do anything. Forcing
Putin to back down will. Shame that America has just elected an
ill-suited person for the job: a ‘tough-talking’ reality TV star who, by all
accounts, loves Putin more than he loves democracy and the institutions who put him in the chair of the most powerful man on Earth.
Saudi Budget 2017: Shrinking deficit,
raising expenditure
Dr. Naser al-Tamimi/Al Arabiya/December 23/16
Saudi Arabia has announced today its general budget for the fiscal year 2017
that shows its gross domestic product (GDP) growth has risen by 1.4 percent to
2581 billion Saudi Riyals (SAR) or over $ 688 bn in
2016.
The budget also indicates that this year’s deficit was lower than originally
expected, at about 297 billion riyals ($79.2 bn), or
11.5 percent of GDP, compared with over 15 percent of the GDP in 2015.
This situation would give Saudi
Arabia the opportunity to claim that it is
succeeding in keeping public finances in check. Meanwhile, it would give the
government more room to raise public expenditures in 2017, while decreasing the
fiscal deficit even further.
Higher spending and revenues
According to the figure released by Saudi Ministry of Finance, total revenues
are expected to reach SAR 528 billion in 2016, 2.7 percent more than SAR 514
billion ($137.0 billion) projected at the beginning of the year. While spending
for 2016, after excluding expenses related to previous years, is expected to
reach SAR 825 billion ($220 billion), a 1.8 percent decrease compared to SAR
840 billion ($224 billion) projected at the start of the year, and 15.6 percent
less than last year’s expenditure of SAR 978 billion ($260.7 billion).
However, total expenditure expected by the end of the current fiscal year,
including late due payments for the previous years is SAR 930 billion ($248
billion).
The budget expenditure for 2017 is estimated at SAR 890 billion ($237 billion),
an 8 percent increase over the projected 2016 expenditure of SAR 825 billion.
The 2017 Budget includes additional funding for NTP initiatives, estimated at
SAR 42 billion, in addition to the projects which have already been funded
through surpluses of previous fiscal years and a funding package to stimulate
and promote growth of the private sector.
Total revenues are expected to reach SAR 692 billion ($ 184 billion) in 2017, a
31 percent increase compared to initial projections this year.
This situation would give Saudi
Arabia the opportunity to claim that it is
succeeding in keeping public finances in check. Meanwhile, it would give the
government more room to raise public expenditures in 2017
Shrinking deficit, rising debts
The Saudi government announced that due to the implementation of measures to
reduce spending, expenditure was lower than initially projected, and as result,
the 2016 deficit will decrease to an estimated SAR 297 billion ($79.2 billion)
or 11.5 percent of GDP, significantly lower than its highest level in 2015 at
SAR 366 billion and is slightly less than the deficit predicted by the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) for this year around $83 bn
or 13 per cent of the Kingdom’s GDP.
The fiscal deficit for this year is substantially less than the one recorded in
2015 which was ballooned to a record despite a sizable reduction in the
government expenditures. As per official statistics, the Kingdom’s fiscal
deficit hit 367 billion riyals ($97.7 billion), equivalent to 15 percent of GDP
in 2015. While, the IMF data suggest that the fiscal deficit of the Kingdom
climbed to about $103 billion, or 15.9 percent of GDP in 2015 from 3.4 percent
of GDP in 2014.
Although Saudi deficit is still substantial and is the highest in the Middle East, but the new figure would allow the Saudi
government to claim significant success in its battle to decrease its massive
deficit and in keeping public finances in check. Looking forward, the IMF is
forecasting the Kingdom’s fiscal deficit to decline further to 9.5 percent in
2017, while the Saudi government is expecting that the deficit will reach SAR
198 billion ($53 billion) in 2017, or 7.7 percent of GDP (in fixed prices), and
down by over 33 percent year-on-year.
As per the Saudi government, the deficit will be partially financed by issuing
new debt instruments (in line with the national debt strategy), in addition to
drawing from reserves. The total national debt for the fiscal year (2016) was
approximately SAR 316.5 billion ($84.4 billion), which is 12.3 percent of the
projected GDP in fixed prices for 2016.
The total expenditure to service the national debt during the current fiscal
year is expected to be SAR 5.4 billion ($1.44 billion), while the cost of
servicing the national debt for the coming fiscal year 2017 is expected to be
SAR 9.3 billion ($2.48 billion).
Trends going forward
Against this backdrop, three negative trends will
continue to overshadow the Saudi general budget in the coming years. First, the
military expenditure continues to occupies a large
share, or about a quarter of the budget in 2016, although the government
expects the ratio to fall back to around 21 percent of the total budget in
2017. Second, the inflation, the General Cost of Living Index, a key indicator
of the overall level of prices, has shown an increase of 3.4 percent in 2016
from the base year of 2007 and compared to 2015.
Higher energy and water prices led to a sharp increase in inflation in recent
months to over 4 percent. Finally, Saudi Arabia’s net foreign assets
at SAMA, the Saudi central bank, will continue to shrink. These assets shrank
$11 billion from September to $544 billion in October, 16.3 percent down on a
year earlier and their lowest level since December 2011.
Importantly, the IMF has also identified key risks to Saudi Arabia’s
economic outlook which could hurt confidence and growth. Oil price volatility
and the possibility of further decline in crude prices and more volatile
international financial market conditions could constrain external financing
and put additional pressure on reserves, domestic liquidity, and credit.
This could also have a bearing on speed and commitment of reform implementation
and possible escalation of regional tensions or domestic security concerns.
Two Bullies, Putin and Erdoğan,
Try Friendship
Daniel Pipes/Australian/December 23/16
http://www.danielpipes.org/17135/two-bullies-putin-and-erdogan-try-friendship
[N.B.: Australian's title: "Erdogan cosies
up to Putin as Turkey
makes trouble."]
The assassination on Dec. 19 in Ankara of
the Russian ambassador to Turkey,
Andrey Karlov, raises some
major geopolitical issues: Will this act of violence break relations between
the two countries, isolate Turkey,
or – counterintuitively – improve their ties? And
does this murder affect the Middle East and
the world beyond?
Turks and Russians have a long and complex history that starts with the
Ottoman conquest of Constantinople in 1453 and
the Russian dream to win it back for Orthodox Christianity. The two states
fought twelve major wars in the 3½ centuries between 1568 and 1918, had a
flurry of good relations under Atatürk and Lenin
which went south with Stalin, improved substantially in 1991 upon the Soviet
Union's dissolution, then subsequently plummeted (2015) and revived (2016).
One depiction of the siege of Constantinople
in 1453.
Generally, Russians have enjoyed the whip hand. They won most wars,
occupied most land, and came away with better terms in treaties. Turks long ago
realized their need of Western support to fend off Russia: thus, they won support from
a 4-power coalition in mid-nineteenth century, the Central Powers in World War
I, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during and after the Cold
War.
Fear of Moscow
has influenced Turks in deeper ways too, steadily inclining them toward Western
ways; of all Muslims, Turks have been the most open to Western influence, from
drinking wine to building democracy. A Turk, Kemal Atatürk, not coincidentally stands out as the most
influential Muslim Westernizer.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may not like NATO but he needs it.
These centuries-old patterns remained mostly in place until the strongman
Islamist president of Turkey,
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, decided in November 2015 to bring down a
Russian war jet for allegedly breaching Turkish airspace. Whatever his reason –
perhaps retaliation for a comparable shooting down of a Turkish plane by Syrian
forces in 2012 – this capricious act both infuriated Russia's President
Vladimir Putin and alienated NATO leaders. Put in schoolyard terms, the little
bully misjudged in taking on the big bully.
Erdoğan eventually realized his mistake
and in June 2016, he swallowed his engorged pride, apologized to Putin, humbly
visited him in Russia, and
partially retreated from those Turkish policies in Syria that contradicted Putin's.
Without betraying affection or trust for Erdoğan,
the Russian leader absorbed these concessions and resumed cooperating with him.
Then, this past Monday, came the assassination of the Russian ambassador
at an art exhibit, of all places, made the more horrifying and vivid by a
high-resolution video of the violence. The murderer, Mevlüt
Mert Altıntaş,
22, made explicit his outlook and purpose by shouting before his own death by
gunfire, "We are the ones who obey the call of jihad! Allahu
Akbar! Don't forget Aleppo!
Don't forget Syria!"
Assuming someone who yells slogans as he murders and is killed tells the truth,
Altıntaş was a Sunni jihadi
lashing out against Russian military help in Syria for the enemies of other
Sunni jihadis.
The murder of Ambassador Karlow was the more
stinging because it took place on camera.
As is their wont, the Turkish authorities rushed to pronounce Altıntaş an agent of one mortal domestic enemy,
the Hizmet movement of Fethullah
Gülen. Once close allies, Gülen
and Erdoğan murderously fell out in a tiff over
power in 2011. Since then, Erdoğan has been
trying to crush Gülen and his millions of adepts by
blaming every problem on them. Pinning Altıntaş
on Gülen both fit that hackneyed narrative and signaled Moscow that the Republic of Turkey sees the murderer as their mutual
enemy. Putin obligingly responded in kind, ascribing the murder to
"terrorism" and not holding Erdoğan's
team responsible.
Indeed, in an ironic contrast to Altıntaş'
presumed wishes, his act of violence brought the two strongmen closer together;
a Chicago Tribune analysis finds "Russia reaping political benefits by
arguing that it has paid a high price for fighting terrorism as Turkey,
embarrassed by its security breaches, increasingly coordinates with Russia in neighboring Syria."
That said, relations between the two states remain fraught with tensions:
Historic enemies remember grudges. Bullies cannot form a stable relationship.
Opponents in Syria's
civil war cannot smooth over contrary goals. Structurally, Ankara needs NATO; so, talk of its joining
the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the Russian-Chinese counterpart to NATO,
appears to be blather for pressuring Westerners.
Karlov's murder highlights how, as Turks
increasingly self-isolate and go rogue, this country of 75 million becomes a
leading source of instability. While still a member of NATO, Erdoğan's Turkey, now
challenges Khomeinist Iran
for the title of the Middle East's most
dangerous regime.
**Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, [twitter.com/danielpipes]@DanielPipes) is president of the Middle East Forum. © 2016 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
While The Administration Slept, Others
Plotted
By: Alberto M. Fernandez/MEMRI/December 23/16
Asked recently about the absence of the United States from talks by Russia,
Turkey and Iran on the future of Syria, the State Department spokesman
dismissed its importance, saying: "The Secretary is perfectly fine not
being in the room" if the result is "a cessation of hostilities that
can actually matter over a period of time."
The spokesman's words sought to put the best spin possible in what was a
singular event, part of a larger global trend, which is the marginalization of
American influence in the region and the aggressive attempt by other powers to
curtail the Americans further and expand their own spheres of influence. The
spokesman's words also glossed over a greater truth – that
these talks are about more than recent events in Syria.
This is not to minimize the importance of the taking of Aleppo in energizing diplomatic contacts. The
city's fall has caused great consternation in the Sunni Arab Muslim world and
in Turkey.
It has also been a great military victory for both Iran
and Russia,
even if it does not represent a definitive end to this bloody conflict.
But all three powers bring many more equities and issues
to the table beyond the fall of one city, no matter how storied or famous or
how great the human tragedy of tens of thousands of Syrians.
For Turkey, it is about
trying to save lives of people in East Aleppo and about trying to find some
accommodation for its Sunni Arab allies in Northern Syria, but also about the Erdogan government's confrontation with Kurdish nationalist
rebels both inside Turkey
and in Syria.
Turkey
now sees Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's survival
as the price to pay for the curtailing of Kurdish aspirations.
In Syria (and at least politically in Iraq), Turkey is burnishing its
credentials as the protector of Sunni Muslims, a role which has given it a
regional and even international dimension as far as Africa and Central Asia,
while it pursues a punitive campaign against its domestic enemies. Engagement
with Russia for the sake of
saving Syrians is politically popular, while there are nationalist elements in Turkey, including in the military, who look with some favor at a tilt
towards Moscow.
Iran is unique in that
neither Turkey nor Russia have made the investment in blood and
treasure in Syria to advance
their interests that Iran
has made to protect its client state in Damascus.
More than a thousand Iranians, including high-ranking officers, have fallen in
the service of the Iranian revolutionary empire in the Levant.
Iran's
principal non-state proxy, Lebanese Hizbullah, has
incurred even greater losses.
Iran's regional ambitions
are expansive, and it is on the march in the Gulf, in Yemen, and
seemingly in places where there are very few or no Shi'a
Muslims.
So Iran engages with Turkey and Russia
to maximize its Levantine winnings and ensure that those are protected, while
the Russians pursue their own broader interests with the Ankara government. Iran is like a wolf protecting its hard-won
prey, making sure that it is not snatched out of its mouth. Clearly, the
Iranians would like to pursue a harder line than even the Russians, wiping out
the remaining pockets of Sunni Arab rebel resistance.
Russia's interests with Turkey and Iran
also transcend Syria,
where it has been able to secure the upper hand – at least for now – with a
relatively minimal military investment. Indeed, Russia's engagement with both
those countries can be seen as part of a much broader Russian grand strategy –
one that has scored some real successes – to project its power worldwide to
seek to leverage the best possible position for the Putin regime in the face of
Western sanctions and American hostility.
Syria is important to Russia, but Russia
is even more important to Russia
and Syria.
Turkey and Iran are key pieces in its efforts, in an
astonishing effort by Russia
to practice a sort of international political jujitsu to try to break out of an
economic straitjacket imposed by the West. The December 21 "Moscow Declaration"
for joint action in Syria is only the latest success of an economically weak
and troubled country creatively using unconventional hybrid war tactics –
propaganda, military action, diplomacy – across a range of physical and virtual
battlefields.
Despite the State Department's words, we will never know what the Obama
administration truly thinks about this latest development. Given its hubris, it
is entirely possible that senior officials would view it as a vindication of
years of Obama policy that sought to disengage from the region's conflicts and
discounted concerns of America's
traditional allies while seeking an opening with Iran. They may well think that this
is good for Washington,
putting the onus of at least some of the region's thorny problems on others.
Others might say that it is the latest in a long line of fateful steps over the
past decade by this administration to unmoor America from a consensus
internationalist foreign policy implemented by an
elite derided by a very senior Obama official as "the Blob." The
result seems clear. American influence in the Middle East
region is at an all-time low. America's
word and credibility are diminished. Still despised, it is also seen as weak
and feckless. The fallout of this policy will not only haunt the Trump
administration, but those beyond it. Indeed, the administration has been able
to pull off quite a feat: it has somehow found a way to empower and embolden
not one adversary but a whole raft of them.
*Alberto M. Fernandez is Vice-President of MEMRI.
Israel accuses Obama of anti-Israeli
'shameful move' at UN
Elior Levy and Roi Kais/ Ynetnews/ 23.12.16
Israeli officials are fuming at President Obama over accusations that he
colluded with Palestinians behind Israel's back at the UN to not veto a
Security Council resolution seen as anti-Israel and an 'abandonment of Israel.'
An Israeli official on Friday accused President Barack Obama of colluding with
the Palestinians in a "shameful move against Israel
at the UN" after learning the White House did not intend to veto a
Security Council resolution condemning settlement construction in the West Bank
and east Jerusalem
the day before.
"President Obama and Secretary Kerry are behind this shameful move against
Israel
at the UN," the official said. "The US administration secretly cooked
up with the Palestinians an extreme anti-Israeli resolution behind Israel's
back which would be a tail wind for terror and boycotts and effectively make
the Western Wall occupied Palestinian territory," he said calling it "an
abandonment of Israel which breaks decades of US policy of protecting Israel at
the UN."
In the Palestinians' first remarks since Egypt decided to postpone a vote on
settlements in the UN Security Council, Palestinian FM Riyad
Al-Malki called the Egyptian move
"suicidal."
During a meeting of Arab foreign ministers at the UN, Al-Malki
said Palestinian ambassador Riyad Mansour
demanded a draft resolution be brought to a vote on the original date set.
According to Al-Malki, the Egyptian ambassador
insisted that the decision is in the hands of the Arab Quartet, who are set to
meet Friday at an undetermined time.
"Palestine
still hopes that there will be a reexamination of the
issue because we believe that this draft resolution reflects a great victory
not only for Palestinians, but also for the Arab world," said Al-Maliki.
According to a senior Israeli official, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
turned to President-elect Donald Trump and his transition team to help head off
a critical UN resolution after learning that the White House did not intend to
veto the measure.
The Egyptian-sponsored resolution had demanded that Israel halt settlement activities
in occupied territories claimed by the Palestinians and declared that existing
settlements "have no legal validity."
But under heavy Israeli pressure, Egypt called off a planned vote in
the Security Council hours before it was to take place. In the diplomatic
activity ahead of the postponement, both Netanyahu and Trump issued nearly
identical statements urging the US
to veto the measure.
"After becoming aware that the administration would not veto the
anti-Israel resolution, Israeli officials reached out to Trump's transition
team to ask for the president-elect's help to avert the resolution," the
Israeli official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was
discussing behind-the-scenes diplomatic activity.
Additionally, the official added that Israel
sees the Obama administration's intent to avoid vetoing the resolution as a
violation of "core commitment" of US security and a final attempt to
tie the hands of the incoming administration.
On Friday, Egypt said its
president had received a call from Trump in which they both agreed to give the
incoming US
administration a chance to try and resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The call came hours after Egypt
indefinitely postponed the UN vote.
Egyptian presidential spokesman Alaa Yousef said, "During the conversation, they discussed
regional issues and developments in the Middle East.
The Presidents agreed on the importance of providing adequate opportunity to
the new US
administration to deal with every aspect of the Palestinian issue, in order to
achieve a full and final settlement".
The proposed resolution would have been more than symbolic. While it did not
call for imposing sanctions on Israel,
its language could have hindered Israel's negotiating position in
future peace talks. Given the widespread international opposition to the
settlements, it would have been nearly impossible for the Trump administration
to reverse it.
It remained unclear Friday whether the measure would come up for a vote in the
council before Obama leaves office.
A senior Palestinian official, speaking anonymously according to protocol, said
attempts are still underway to bring the resolution to vote. He said after Egypt called off the vote there are still
several other sponsors—Venezuela,
Malaysia, Senegal and New Zealand—that could present it.
The official said Egypt
didn't consult with the Palestinians about delaying the vote and it was a
"complete shock" for them.
In a Christmas greeting on Friday, Palestinian President Mahmoud
Abbas said: "Despite the Israeli occupation, our
presence in our homeland and the preservation of our cultural and national
heritage are the most important form of resistance in the face of the darkness
of a foreign colonialist occupying power."
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement Thursday in which he asked
the United States
to veto anti-Israel resolution. "I hope the United States will not abandon this
policy. I hope it will act according to the principles that President Obama
himself stated in his speech to the UN General Assembly in 2011 that we will
not reach peace through UN resolutions, but only through direct negotiations
between the parties. As such, this draft resolution is bad. Bad for Israel, bad to the United States and bad for peace,
"said Netanyahu.
Is the Russian Phoenix Really Rising?
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/December
23/16
Earlier this month, as Russians marked the 25th anniversary of the fall of the
Soviet Empire, there was much talk of an end to what many in Moscow claim was a
“parenthesis” that is now closing.
In other words, in 1992 Russia,
as the core power in the USSR,
ceased to be a superpower but is now regaining that status thanks to Vladimir
Putin. The claim that “the Russian phoenix” is rising from the ashes of the
Soviet Empire is supported by reference to Putin’s success in annexing Crimea,
shaving off a chunk of eastern Ukraine and calling it Novorossiya
(New Russia), swallowing 20 per cent of Georgia’s territory, turning Iran into
a client state, and emerging as a major player in war-torn Syria.
More importantly, perhaps, Russia’s new status has been acknowledged if not
openly endorsed by the Obama administration with the Secretary of State John
Kerry musing about “our Russian partners” on a range of issues from the fake
nuclear deal with Iran to the tragedy in Syria.As far
as the “Phoenix is back” tune makes some Russians feel better, no harm is done.
After all, nations, like individual human beings, need a bit of fantasy to add
spice to life. However, there is a danger that taking that kind of talk too
seriously could feed the monster of hubris with potentially disastrous
consequences not only for Russia
but also for the world.
A more sober assessment of Russia’s
position might help Moscow
avoid making the classical mistake of overestimating its strength. Gauging Russia’s real power has been a challenge for
policymakers in Moscow
and European capitals at least since the Napoleonic wars.
The French statesman Talleyrand put it this way: “Russia is never as strong as she
thinks and not as weak as her adversaries hope.” Russia’s points of strength in
terms of geopolitics are obvious.
In territorial size, the Russian
Federation, spanning two continents, is the
largest nation on earth. In population, Russia
is in 10th place, just behind Bangladesh.
When it comes to hard power, Russia
is only surpassed by the United
States. It has enough firepower to destroy
the planet several times over. In the past few years, partly thanks to Obama’s
success in preventing the United States
from playing a leadership role, Russia
has been able to project power at no great task. Russia
uses a lot of the little power it has while America, under Obama, is prevented
from using even a little of a lot of power it has.
Defeating the infant Georgian army wasn’t too difficult. And carpet-bombing
civilians in Aleppo,
who cannot retaliate, was even easier. However, the Russian colossus may have a
foot of clay. With falling birthrates, its demographic outlook appears bleak.
This is important because, throughout history, one condition of rising empires
has been a robust demography. The Russian economy is also in poor shape.
Falling oil revenues, the mounting cost of absorbing annexed territories, the
vast sums needed to destroy Syria and keep Bashar
Al-Assad presiding over the ruins, an unprecedented level of flight of capital,
structural corruption, western sanctions and a drying up of Direct Foreign
Investment (DFI) have led to a perfect storm of economic meltdown.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates for this year,
Russia has the world’s 17th largest economy with a gross domestic product (GDP)
estimated at $1.267 trillion, a significant fall since its peak of $2.2
trillion in 2013 when oil prices were almost twice higher. Thus, one theory is
that Putin is projecting power in easy places to divert attention from his
regime’s domestic woes. One indication of that was the big noise Moscow made about having Assad sign
a 49-year treaty to grant Russia
permanent aero-naval bases on the Syrian coastline. Only a few mischief-makers
in Moscow asked whether there was any guarantee
that Assad would still be in power 49 years from now or whether there would
even be a Syria.
Putin’s behavior may lead to a change of public
opinion in NATO countries, and, perhaps even China
and Japan,
in favor of spending more on arms. Right now average
expenditure on arms for NATO is about 1.25 per cent of the GDP of the 28
members. The new Trump administration wants that increased to 2 per cent. If
that happens and Putin tries to match it, in an undeclared arms race, he would
have to devote 45 per cent of Russia’s
GDP to that particular chorus girl.
Last time something like that happened was in the USSR under Mikhail Gorbachev, with
the result that the empire collapsed under the weight of its own
contradictions. Even now, Russian military forces are stretched from the
Norwegian frontier to the far-reaches of Siberia in a futile Desert of Tatars
for imaginary invaders. At the same time, the Chinese are quietly colonizing Siberia. In 2015 the number of Chinese settlers was
estimated at 3.4 million and rising.
Another flaw in Putin’s imperial plan is Russia’s
failure to attract any allies apart from the remnants of the Ba’athist regime in Damascus.
Even the mullahs of Tehran have refused to enter
into a formal alliance with Moscow.
Putin has repaid them by vetoing their demand to join the Shanghai Group, a
club led by Beijing and Moscow supposedly to combat terrorism.
While Russia has no allies,
the US
has many, most of them neglected or even antagonized under Obama. Apart from
the 27 NATO allies, the US
has military accords of various natures with 46 other nations across the globe,
and military bases in every continent.
Putin’s dream empire has yet another flaw. Few outsiders, apart from Edward
Snowden, would like to settle in Russia or put their money in
Russian banks. In contrast, even now thousands of Russians immigrate to Western
Europe and North America each year. Those who
don’t immigrate send their money to London, Frankfurt, New York and,
more recently, even Cyprus.
One suggestion is that western democracies should let Russia have all
the rope it wants to hang itself. Rebuilding Syria alone could cost $1.5
trillion. Empire building is a bad habit, and a very expensive one in our
times.