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Bible Quotations For Today
Do not be afraid, little flock, for it is your Father’s good pleasure to give you the kingdom
"Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12/22-32: "Jesus said to his disciples, ‘Therefore I tell you, do not worry about your life, what you will eat, or about your body, what you will wear. For life is more than food, and the body more than clothing. Consider the ravens: they neither sow nor reap, they have neither storehouse nor barn, and yet God feeds them. Of how much more value are you than the birds! And can any of you by worrying add a single hour to your span of life? If then you are not able to do so small a thing as that, why do you worry about the rest? Consider the lilies, how they grow: they neither toil nor spin; yet I tell you, even Solomon in all his glory was not clothed like one of these. But if God so clothes the grass of the field, which is alive today and tomorrow is thrown into the oven, how much more will he clothe you you of little faith! And do not keep striving for what you are to eat and what you are to drink, and do not keep worrying. For it is the nations of the world that strive after all these things, and your Father knows that you need them. Instead, strive for his kingdom, and these things will be given to you as well. ‘Do not be afraid, little flock, for it is your Father’s good pleasure to give you the kingdom."

Brothers and sisters, pray for us, so that the word of the Lord may spread rapidly and be glorified everywhere
"Second Letter to the Thessalonians 02/13-17//.03,01-05: "We must always give thanks to God for you, brothers and sisters beloved by the Lord, because God chose you as the first fruits for salvation through sanctification by the Spirit and through belief in the truth. For this purpose he called you through our proclamation of the good news, so that you may obtain the glory of our Lord Jesus Christ. So then, brothers and sisters, stand firm and hold fast to the traditions that you were taught by us, either by word of mouth or by our letter. Now may our Lord Jesus Christ himself and God our Father, who loved us and through grace gave us eternal comfort and good hope, comfort your hearts and strengthen them in every good work and word. Finally, brothers and sisters, pray for us, so that the word of the Lord may spread rapidly and be glorified everywhere, just as it is among you, and that we may be rescued from wicked and evil people; for not all have faith. But the Lord is faithful; he will strengthen you and guard you from the evil one. And we have confidence in the Lord concerning you, that you are doing and will go on doing the things that we command. May the Lord direct your hearts to the love of God and to the steadfastness of Christ."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 04/16
TV station cuts interview after Hezbollah pressure/Alex Rowell/February 04/16
DEA uncovers major drug trafficking by Hezbollah to fund global terrorism/Agencies/February 03/16/
Is Hezbollah targeting a VP position in Lebanon/Khairallah Khairallah/Al Arabiya/February 03/16
ISIS’ infiltration within our societies/Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 03/16
Arab Shiites must reclaim religious authority from Iran/Mohammad al-Sulami/Al Arabiya/February 03/16
Egypt and Russia: Do they really understand each other/Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/February 03/16
Could current oil prices be the new normal/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Al Arabiya/February 03/16
The economic motives behind Israeli occupation/Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/February 03/16
Talk of a Saudi-Iranian Settlement/Ali Ibrahim/Asharq Al Awsat/February 03/16
Lining Up the Tools to Break the Islamic State Brand/Alberto M. Fernandez/Washington Institute/February 03/16

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on February 04/16
TV station cuts interview after Hezbollah pressure
DEA uncovers major drug trafficking by Hezbollah to fund global terrorism
Is Hezbollah targeting a VP position in Lebanon?
Lebanese army kill 2, arrests 27 militants in border town
Lebanese Ministers against Bassil’s Stance
6 IS Militants Killed, 16 Held in Special Army Operation in Arsal Outskirts
Maronite Bishops Call for Balanced Participation of Sects in State Posts
World Powers' Envoys Meet al-Rahi, Urge MPs to 'Urgently' Elect a President
Czech Plane in Beirut to Repatriate Freed Abductees
Paris: Contract to Hand Over 200 Vehicles to Lebanese Army
Jumblat Predicts Return of Syrian Hegemony, Says New President 'Will Come on Persian Carpet'
Khalil Denies New Appointments Occurred at Ministry, Slams 'Sectarian' Campaign
Bassil Says Syria Donors Meet Test for International Community
Berri Mocks Parties Relying on 'Tally' over Presidential Polls
Dispute on Appointments of Officers to Make a Comeback
EU Ambassador Christina Lassen Meets Syrian Refugees in Akkar

TV station cuts interview after Hezbollah pressure
Alex Rowell/February 04/16
Carol Malouf told NOW that Hezbollah is “scared” of the full content of an interview with its captive fighters, saying “it hits them where it hurts the most.”
BEIRUT - An exclusive video interview with Hezbollah captives held by Al-Nusra Front outside Aleppo, due to be aired tonight, has been substantially abbreviated after a senior Hezbollah official put pressure on the television station and the journalist who filmed the piece. Lebanese journalist Carol Malouf told NOW on Wednesday that she had initially agreed with local TV station MTV to air thirty minutes of the footage she recorded during a trip to Syria in December in which she interviewed two Hezbollah fighters captured the previous month by the Al-Qaeda affiliate. However, viewers will now see only seven minutes after calls were made by several Hezbollah officials to Walid Abboud, the presenter of the show on which the interview will be aired; Gabriel al-Murr, the owner of MTV; and Malouf herself. “Somebody leaked the information to Hezbollah from inside MTV,” said Malouf. “First, Walid received a phone call from somebody in Hezbollah, but not very senior, [telling him] ‘I’m giving you advice, it’s probably better if you don’t air it,’ and things like this.”“Then somebody more senior called Gabriel al-Murr […] and told him literally that ‘this interview does not serve the purpose of Hezbollah or MTV’.”
Following that call, Murr sought to axe the interview altogether, said Malouf. After lengthy debates on Monday and Tuesday, during which time Malouf was also contacted by Hezbollah exerting further pressure, it was agreed that seven minutes of the less “controversial” footage would be aired. MTV was not immediately available for comment on the matter, hours before the episode of the bi-weekly Bi Mawdouiyeh (“Objectively”) program was set to air. Hezbollah, for its part, has made no mention of the matter, although an online outlet supportive of the party reported Tuesday that Hezbollah had “made a number of calls to MTV at the highest of levels in order to stop the channel” from broadcasting a tape of its captured fighters.
Exclusive sources told the site—whose editor-in-chief Fadi Nazzal is close to Hezbollah’s ally, the Amal Movement—that Hezbollah could “resort to asking Lebanon’s National Audiovisual Media Council to convene and take a decision to forbid the showing of the video clip.”Hezbollah has a longstanding policy of not commenting to NOW. Censored interview footage hits Hezbollah “where it hurts most” Malouf told NOW that that the full content of her interview with the two Hezbollah members held in captivity by Nusra “scares” the party. The Lebanese journalist said she is in talks with other TV channels to air the remainder, which she described as “much more interesting.”“It hits the nerve of the host community, because it shows that there are a lot of fuck-ups in the field, there were mistakes,” she said of the interview segments that will not air on MTV.
Malouf added the interview reveals that “there is a lot of pressure to send people more than once to the field, even though they signed up to go only once for fifteen days per year […] it shows weakness, it shows they’re not taking care of their people enough.”“The [Hezbollah captive] even says something like, ‘when we go to the field we get $4 a day.’ Which is peanuts. It’s very embarrassing, and it questions, ‘Why are we doing this, why are we sending our kids to do this?’”“So I think this is what they’re scared of. Because this is even more dangerous than Michel Samaha,” the journalist added in reference to the former Lebanese minister who was found guilty of plotting terror attacks on behalf of the Syrian regime. “It hits them where it hurts the most.”Hezbollah has come under heated criticism both in Lebanon and abroad for its military intervention on behalf of the Bashar al-Assad regime. Although the party counts on strong support from Lebanon’s Shiite community, it has suffered increasing casualties in Syria as its involvement has gradually expanded in scope. Hezbollah’s exact death toll in Syria remains a mystery, however the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights tracking daily developments in the war-torn country says that over 1,000 of the party’s combatants have been killed since 2011.Nusra dealt the party’s military efforts a further propaganda blow when it announced on November 14 that it had kidnapped three Hezbollah fighters and released a video of them. Hezbollah is currently negotiating with Nusra to secure the release of Mohammad Shuaib, Hassan Taha and Mousa Kourani, according to pro-Hezbollah daily Al-Akhbar.

DEA uncovers major drug trafficking by Hezbollah to fund global terrorism
Agencies/February 02/16/The United States Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) announced on Tuesday that it uncovered major international criminal activity by Shi'ite Islamist group Hezbollah, in which it used funds from drug trafficking operations to purchase weapons and fund its other activities.
Several arrests, targeting what the DEA referred to as the Lebanese Hezbollah’s External Security Organization Business Affairs Component (BAC), were conducted by the DEA and international law enforcement from seven other countries. The arrests indicate the dangerous global connection between drug trafficking and terrorism. The arrests were part of the DEA'S "Project Cassandra" which targets and monitors the global network of Hezbollah activities responsible for moving large quantities of cocaine in the US and Europe. The lead came from an initial investigation that had been conducted into the Lebanese-Canadian Bank. “DEA and our international partners are relentless in our commitment to disrupt any attempt by terrorists and terrorist organizations to leverage the drug trade against our nations. DEA and our partners will continue to dismantle networks who exploit the nexus between drugs and terror using all available law enforcement mechanisms,” said DEA Acting Deputy Administrator Jack Riley. The Lebanese Hezbollah External Security Organization Business Affairs Component (BAC), was founded by deceased former Hezbollah Senior Leader Imad Mughniyah. It currently operates under the control of Abdallah Safieddine, and Adham Tabaja who recently became a US Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT). Over the years, Hezbollah had set up business relationships with drug cartels in South America, such as La Oficina de Envigado, who are the major suppliers of cocaine to the US and Europe. The Hezbollah BAC continues to launder significant profits from this drug exchange in a trade-based scheme known as the Black Market Peso Exchange. “These drug trafficking and money laundering schemes utilized by the Business Affairs Component provide a revenue and weapons stream for an international terrorist organization responsible for devastating terror attacks around the world,” said Riley. Starting in February of 2015, DEA and foreign law enforcement bodies in Europe initiated an operation targeting BAC's criminal activities in Europe. Since then, European forces have uncovered an extremely intricate and interwoven network in a number of countries, called "money countries" by DEA, over which millions of euros in drug-sponsored funds from Europe to the Middle East are collected and transported. The profits from these money countries are then transferred to Colombia for payment of drug traffickers, while large portions of payments have been found to make their transit through Lebanon. This complex web of drug sales and profits to the Middle East significantly benefits terrorist organizations in the region, namely Hezbollah. The DEA and Customs and Border Protection (CBP), working closely with European counterparts in France, Germany, Italy and Belgium, arrested top leaders of the European cell of the BAC last week. Most significantly, forces arrested US-designated terrorist Mohamad Noureddine, a Lebanese money launderer, who worked directly with Hezbollah’s financial apparatus to transfer funds, via his via his Lebanon-based company, and has maintained direct ties to Hezbollah terrorists located in Iraq and Lebanon. Cooperation between DEA and its international counterparts were crucial in dismantling this labyrinth of drug networks worldwide. Additionally, the US Department of the Treasury announced sanctions last week targeting Hezbollah’s financial support network by designating Hezbollah-affiliated money launderers Noureddine and Hamdi Zaher El Dine, as well as the Lebanese trade company involved in the transfer of funds as designated terrorists or accomplices to terror. All assets of the groups or individuals involved, including those located in the US or in the possession or control of US have been frozen. Additionally, sanctions have been imposed in the US for engaging in business with those involved. “Hezbollah needs individuals [like Mohamad Noureddine and Hamdi Zaher El Dine] to launder criminal proceeds for use in terrorism and political destabilization," said Adam J. Szubin, Acting Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence."We will continue to target this vulnerability, and expose and disrupt such enablers of terrorism wherever we find them,” he stated.

Is Hezbollah targeting a VP position in Lebanon?
Khairallah Khairallah/Al Arabiya/February 03/16
Has electing a president in Lebanon become possible now that there are two candidates, Michel Aoun and Suleiman Franjieh? Or do Hezbollah’s aims extend beyond the Maronite presidential post and go as far as limiting the jurisdiction of the Sunni prime minister?
Hezbollah could have announced its support for Aoun as president, especially after Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea endorsed him even though they are bitter rivals. Hezbollah does not seem to be in a rush to elect a president. So was the 2008 Doha Agreement, which brought Michel Suleiman to the presidency, the last successful attempt to elect a president without having to amend the constitution? There are two presidential candidates from the March 8 coalition, but Hezbollah - which leads this coalition - is refusing to attend parliament sessions to elect a president. Is there a farce bigger than this?
The next few weeks will reveal whether Hezbollah aims to bring a candidate they approve of to the presidency, or amend the constitution in order to establish a fixed Shiite post through which Hezbollah, and thus Iran, can indefinitely control Lebanon. Such a post, which no one is publicly addressing, would be that of a vice president. From Hezbollah’s perspective, the vice president must have clear jurisdictions that grant him veto power over national decisions. Its excuse is that the Shiite sect is absent from executive authority, thus ignoring the fact that this authority is present in the cabinet.
Iranian control. Iran seeks to control Lebanon officially - not only via a sectarian militia - by amending the constitution before electing a president. This could be achieved by the constituent assembly, which Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah called for before issuing a retraction.
At last week’s joint press conference Aoun and Geagea turned a new page, putting behind intra-Christian disputes that lasted for more than 25 years and benefitted no one in Lebanon. Geagea was right to say the ball is now in Hezbollah’s court, and that the path has now been paved to elect a president within days. Meanwhile, I believe Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, Aoun’s son in law, does not miss a chance to show that he is Iran’s foreign minister. Therefore, Hezbollah thinks time is on its side and the situation is turning in its favor, particularly given the country’s bad situation in all fields, particularly the economy. What will Aoun do if Hezbollah prevents him from achieving his dream of becoming president, considering that the Iranian project in Lebanon goes beyond certain figures and as far as controlling the country via state institutions and the constitution, and through adopting a new electoral law that suits Hezbollah but not its rivals or pluralism? Lebanon is confronting a new and unprecedented situation. There are two presidential candidates from the March 8 coalition, but Hezbollah - which leads this coalition - is at the top of the list of those refusing to attend parliament sessions to elect a president. Is there a farce bigger than this? Is there a clearer exposure of Iran’s role in Lebanon?

Hezbollah kills four al-Qaeda-linked militants in north Lebanon
Reuters, Beirut Wednesday, 3 February 2016/Hezbollah fighters killed at least four members of the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front in a rocket attack on their car in northeastern Lebanon on Tuesday, a security source said. The incident took place in a restive area near the Syrian border, just outside the Lebanese town of Arsal, which Nusra Front and Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) fighters overran briefly in 2014 before withdrawing after clashes with the army.Shi’ite Hezbollah has previously targeted Sunni Islamist fighters in the area who have staged regular incursions from Lebanon’s war-torn neighbor. Nusra Front and ISIS - themselves enemies in Syria’s conflict - have in the past week clashed in the outskirts of Arsal. Nusra Front initiated the fighting with its jihadist rival by trying to capture ISIS positions in the area, the source said. ISIS counter attacked, pushing Nusra Front out of positions it controlled east of Arsal. The clashes killed several fighters on each side, the source said.Nusra Front freed 16 Lebanese soldiers and policemen in December in exchange for the release of jailed Islamists. It had captured the soldiers during the Arsal incursion in 2014. ISIS is believed to be still holding nine soldiers it captured. The Arsal incursion and the continued presence of Nusra Front and Islamic State in the border area in northern Lebanon are an example of the spillover from the five-year-old Syrian conflict. The spillover has also included bombings, such as an ISIS-claimed suicide attack in November that killed more than 40 people in Beirut.

Lebanese army kill 2, arrests 27 militants in border town
By Reuters Beirut Wednesday, 3 February 2016/Lebanese soldiers killed two gunmen and arrested at least 27 suspected militants, including a commander from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group, in a raid in the town of Arsal near the border with Syria, a security source on Wednesday. The source said that among those detained was Abu Bakr al-Raqqawi, a local commander of ISIS, and three high profile insurgents. He said the army carried out the raid after receiving intelligence that Raqqawi and others were in the northeastern town, which has suffered from a spillover of violence from nearly five years of conflict in Syria. Nusra Front and ISIS fighters have staged regular incursions into Arsal from the barren hills just outside the town. They overran the town briefly in 2014 before withdrawing to the hills after clashes with the army. But security sources say that Nusra and ISIS continue to have a strong presence in the town, where thousands of Syrian refugees live in dire conditions. They say sometimes the insurgents descend into the town at night to threaten or kill those who oppose them. Nusra Front freed 16 Lebanese soldiers and policemen in December in exchange for the release of jailed Islamists. It had captured the soldiers during the Arsal incursion in 2014. ISIS is believed to be still holding nine soldiers it captured.

Lebanese Ministers against Bassil’s Stance
Asharq l Awsat/February 03/16/Beirut- Last month, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, the president of the Free Patriotic Movement, abstained from voting on the final statement of an Arab foreign ministers’ meeting which classified Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. The meeting came amid rising tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia after the execution of the Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr in Saudi Arabia on Jan. 2, triggering a war of words between the two countries and leading to the assault on the Saudi Embassy in Tehran.Bassil’s stance sparked the outrage of the March 14 coalition, which on the other side was praised by Hezbollah and the rest of its March 8 allies. However, Lebanon has succeeded and to a large extent in overcoming the crisis caused by the stances of the Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, that refused to support the Arab and Muslim stances regarding the attack on Saudi Arabian Embassy in Tehran and its consulate in the city of Mashhad last month. Foreign Minister, Gebran Bassil, was keen on clarifying the situation in more than one occasion and emphasizing on condemning attacks on diplomatic missions, in addition to the visit that took place by his colleague in the FPM and National Education and Higher Education Minister, Elias Bou Saab, to the Saudi Embassy to clarify the situation. Bou Saab told the delegation that the position of Lebanon during the meeting of Arab foreign ministers was consistent with the Ministerial Declaration of the Lebanese government. Minister of Interior and Municipalities Nohad Machnouk considered that the “position of Foreign Minister was not wise, especially since it took into account local developments before the fate of the entire region.” “We are in favor of the agreement and against Arab interference, whether it was Iranian or not Saudi Arabia has supported Lebanon during difficult times and never differentiated between the Lebanese,” he said.

6 IS Militants Killed, 16 Held in Special Army Operation in Arsal Outskirts
Naharnet/February 03/16/The Lebanese army killed six terror fugitives on Wednesday and arrested 16 individuals in raids on Wadi al-Arnab and al-Joumrok neighborhoods in the northeastern town of Arsal, an army statement said. The groups were said to have links to the latest clashes in Arsal. The military carried out raids on positions of the terror group of Ahmed Ammoun, the mastermind behind the recent incidents in the border town, injuring him in the back, and killing Islamic State militant Anas Khaled Zaarour. Ammoun was arrested together with Abou Bakr al-Raqawi and a group of Syrian nationals committing to the Islamic State group. Explosives and suicide belts were also confiscated. The army deployed in the town and patrolled its neighborhoods. "It was our largest operation against Daesh... in terms of size and the number of people killed and captured," a military spokesman told AFP, using an Arabic acronym for IS. The army said in a statement that its "lightning" raid was launched on the basis of information that the jihadists were planning attacks on military posts and to kidnap civilians in Arsal. Moreover, the military raided the house of Abdul Rahman al-Flaiti aka Nougo in the al-Joumrouk neighborhood in Arsal and arrested seven people, Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) said. The dead body of a Syrian man was found in the trunk of a vehicle that belongs to Nougo, it added. In the Bekaa town of Zahle, the army apprehended Hassan Youssef al-Flaiti in Ablah, and Syrian Bassil Ahmed Salloum in the town of Mtayleb in Metn on suspicion of belonging to terror cells, the army orientation directorate said in a statement. Thirty-one Syrian nationals were also taken into custody in the northern district of Akkar for failure to possess identifications cards and for illegal entry to Lebanon. The detainees were handed to the related authorities. Later during the day the army raided an IS hospital in Arsal and arrested 16 terrorists including Ahmed Noun. The terror group had plans to target army position and kidnap citizens from Arsal.

Maronite Bishops Call for Balanced Participation of Sects in State Posts
Naharnet/February 03/16/The council of Maronite bishops called on Wednesday for a balanced participation of all sects in state institutions after several officials complained about the alleged exclusion of Christians from key posts. “Officials should preserve the participation of sects in civil service in a balanced way to guarantee the stability of the system,” the bishops said in a statement following their monthly meeting under Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi in Bkirki. The employment of civil servants from all sects should also “be based on competency, integrity and the willingness to fight corruption, which has become rampant in most institutions,” they said. On Tuesday, the Change and Reform bloc of MP Michel Aoun decried what it called the exclusion of Christians from state posts, including the Finance Ministry, saying it is contrary to the country’s National Pact. Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil reportedly has replaced a Maronite Christian with a Shiite at a top post at his ministry. The minister confirmed the move but said the case was “one out of 400 jobs and that his decision also noted the appointment of Christians in other departments.”The statement issued by the bishops encouraged dialogue and “hailed any initiative that would lead to the election of a president.”“Lebanon is ruled through cooperation among its different factions and not through divisions,” it said in reference to the latest rapprochement between the Lebanese Forces and the FPM, which is founded by Aoun. Last month, LF chief Samir Geagea withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed the candidacy of his long-time rival Aoun. The bishops said that “dialogue will only be effective” if “parliamentary blocs headed to the parliament to put democracy on the right path.”They also “urged politicians to steer the government clear of their differences so that it practices its executive authorities.”Problems such as unemployment, poverty and a delicate security situation that one third of the Lebanese population are suffering from require cabinet action, the bishops added.

World Powers' Envoys Meet al-Rahi, Urge MPs to 'Urgently' Elect a President
Naharnet/February 03/16/The ambassadors of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and other world powers met Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Wednesday and called on Lebanon's MPs to elect a president as soon as possible. The meeting was attended by the ambassadors of France, Russia, the U.S., Germany, Italy, the EU and the Arab League, and representatives of Britain, China and the Vatican as well as the U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Sigrid Kaag.Talks tackled “the political situation in Lebanon, with a particular focus on the presidential vacuum,” Kaag's office said in a statement. The participants expressed their “deep concern over the continued vacancy in the presidency and shared the Patriarch’s concerns with regard to the erosion of the institutions of state in the absence of a president,” said the statement.
They called on all members of parliament to “urgently attend a parliamentary session and to proceed to elect a president.”The conferees also reiterated their commitment to “strong and coordinated” international support for Lebanon to “reinforce its stability,” emphasizing the need to “protect the most vulnerable in Lebanon, including all refugees.”Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014, when the term of Michel Suleiman expired. Since then the country's political forces have failed to agree on a candidate for the country's top Christian post due to political disputes and electoral rivalry. Several previous votes have failed to produce a president amid a boycott by some blocs and parliament is due to convene on February 8 for another attempt. Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh and Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun have recently emerged as the leading candidates but their nominations have been met with reservations and objections from the country's rival parties.

Czech Plane in Beirut to Repatriate Freed Abductees
Naharnet/February 03/16/A Czech plane arrived Wednesday at Beirut's airport to repatriate five Czech citizens who were freed Monday by their captors in Lebanon after six months of captivity. “A plane sent by the Czech government landed this evening at the Rafik Hariri International Airport to carry the five freed Czechs,” Lebanon's National News Agency reported. “The repatriation will not occur tonight and an official date for their departure from Lebanon is yet to be set,” NNA said.The news agency noted that the issue is being “shrouded by extreme secrecy by the security agencies.”Some reports have said that the departure will take place within the next 48 hours, NNA added. The five Czech men were freed late Monday and are currently in the care of Lebanon's General Security agency.Their release appeared to be tied to the detention of a Lebanese man in Prague, with a Lebanese security official telling AFP: "The release of the five Czechs... is the final part of an exchange deal, (that) includes the release of the Lebanese detainee in Prague, Ali Taan Fayyad." Another Lebanese security source, also speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed the deal. The five Czechs and their local driver disappeared in mid-July. Their car was found later in the Kefraya region of eastern Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. Media reported that the kidnap may have been linked to the case of Fayyad, a Lebanese man held in Czech custody in connection with suspected arms smuggling. Fayyad's brother was the Lebanese citizen who was kidnapped, and his defense lawyer was among the Czech group.

Paris: Contract to Hand Over 200 Vehicles to Lebanese Army
Naharnet/February 03/16/A contract has been signed to hand over 200 French armored vehicles to Lebanon under a $3 billion Saudi grant aimed at helping the Lebanese army confront the growing threat of terrorists. The president of Volvo Group Governmental Sales and director-general of Renault Trucks Defense Emmanuel Levacher made the announcement on Tuesday. The contract was signed between Volvo-Renault Trucks Defense and ODAS, the company which has been created by the French government to act as an intermediary in deals on military equipment. Levacher said the 2.2 billion euros aid program includes handing over more armored Sherpa vehicles and VAB Mark3. But Volvo Group Governmental Sales and ODAS did not specify how many vehicles will be handed over to Lebanon. The signature of the new contract came months after stalling on the delivery of more weapons to Lebanon over Saudi Arabia's attempt to re-discuss certain aspects of the contract. In April, Lebanon received the first shipment of the $3 billion worth of French arms under the Saudi-financed deal to boost the country's defensive capabilities to combat terror threats, along its northeastern border in particular.

Jumblat Predicts Return of Syrian Hegemony, Says New President 'Will Come on Persian Carpet'
Naharnet/February 03/16/ Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat posted on Wednesday a number of humorous tweets to comment on the ongoing presidential vacuum in the country and Iran's alleged role in the issue, while also saying that Syria will restore its political hegemony over Lebanon. He said: “It looks that our future president will come on a Persian carpet.”“Can the Lebanese MPs decide. I doubt. We are like sitting ducks and somebody else decides,” he tweeted in English. “Everything now is black. The powers of darkness, sorry enlightenment, are not in a hurry,” he continued. “Hence, let us guess naively about our future beloved president and praise the merciful all powerful guide forever,” Jumblat tweeted. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls. Jumblat has in recent weeks made a number of caustic remarks against Iran and its influence over Lebanon through its ally Hizbullah. He accused it on Saturday of obstructing the presidential elections, asking: “If Iran was indeed not hindering the elections, then any citizen has the right to ask what are the real reasons for the lack of quorum at electoral sessions?” Earlier on Wednesday, Jumblat predicted that “direct Syrian hegemony will once again return to Lebanon.”This will not include a return of Syria troops, he told Sky News Arabia. “Lebanon could become a new district of a new Syria, which is being pushed for by the Syrian-Iranian axis,” he stated. This new Syria stretches from Daraa to Tartous and Latakia, including Lebanon, he explained. Syrian troops withdrew from Lebanon in 2005 after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in Beirut earlier that year. They had initially entered Lebanon in 1976 during the civil war that was raging in the country. Hariri was killed in a massive car bomb in Beirut that was widely blamed by the Lebanese on Syria at a time when it wielded its political and security influence over the country.

Khalil Denies New Appointments Occurred at Ministry, Slams 'Sectarian' Campaign
Naharnet/February 03/16/Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil clarified Wednesday that the ministry has not witnessed an appointment of new employees but rather a reshuffle of incumbent ones, slamming what he described as a “sectarian” campaign over the issue. “The finance ministry has not witnessed any new appointments but rather a periodic reshuffle of incumbent employees,” said Khalil at a press conference. “We have never resorted to the sectarian rhetoric and we believe in coexistence and balance. We have always called for the implementation of the Taef Accord and we're keen on all sects. There is no leader sect or party in this country,” Khalil stressed. “This country can only function through the formula that we have struggled for together with (AMAL Movement founder) Imam Moussa al-Sadr and Speaker (Nabih) Berri, and we will struggle for every Lebanese regardless of their sect,” the minister underlined. His remarks come a day after the Change and Reform parliamentary bloc warned that it might resort to popular protests to address what it described as discrimination against Christians in state institutions and in the implementation of developmental projects. “I wish they resorted to the principle of accountability on the basis of role and competency and not according to sectarian calculations,” said Khalil. “I join my voice to that of the Council of Maronite Bishops in calling for balance in the appointment of civil servants and for the participation of all sects. We are seeking to enhance the role of Christians in the state on the basis of competency,” he added, referring to a statement that was issued earlier in the day by the council. “All of the finance ministry's posts are important and the criterion is competency,” Khalil noted. In remarks to As Safir newspaper, Khalil had deplored reports claiming that injustice is plaguing Christians at the state institutions, asserting that the campaign is “political” and “an illusion.” “There has been no appointments at the finance ministry but normal formations where a female Christian employee was upgraded to second category and a Shiite was appointed as acting employee to fill her place,” Khalil said. “The campaign is merely political with political goals,” he said. Khalil was reported to have allocated a senior post at the ministry's taxpayers department that was held by Bassema Antonios, a Christian, to Shiite Muslim employee Mohammed Suleiman. The minister noted that the said case was “one out of 400 jobs” and that the decision also involved “the appointment of Christians in other departments.” He defended himself saying: “I am not the one to be accused of marginalizing the Christians. For your information I have four Christians within my work team at the ministry.”For his part, Public Works Minister Ghazi Zoaiter said: “I will prove with numbers that the information circulated is false. “I will hold a press conference and will bring up the subject at the next cabinet session to show that there is no imbalance at the posts in the ministries dominated by AMAL movement,” he said. Regarding development projects in the Christian areas, Zoaiter stated: “The Ministry has spent LL24 billion in 2015 on projects in Mount Lebanon.” Zoaiter was referring to a detailed letter he received from Labor Minister Sejaan Qazzi who claimed injustice in projects implemented in areas of Christian dominance.

Bassil Says Syria Donors Meet Test for International Community
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/Naharnet/February 03/16/Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil has said that the Syria Donors Conference which will be held in London on Thursday will be a test for world leaders on their intention to help Lebanon. The conference “is a test for the international community and its intention in assisting Lebanon, its government, people and economy,” Bassil told al-Akhbar daily published on Wednesday. The international community should help the Syrians return to their country, he said. Al-Akhbar also quoted sources as saying that the Lebanese delegation, which will be headed by Prime Minister Tammam Salam and includes Education Minister Elias Bou Saab, is an agreement that the Syrians should return home. “Their presence will not be infinite,” they said. Social Affairs Minister Rashid Derbas confirmed to Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) that there are no differences among the Lebanese delegation's members on the country's requests at the conference. The donor conference, the fourth of its kind, hopes to meet the United Nations' demand for $7.73 billion to help in Syria plus $1.23 billion assistance for countries in the region affected by the crisis. British Prime Minister David Cameron will host more than 70 international leaders at the summit. They will include Salam, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Jordan's King Abdullah II and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The conference will try to find ways to keep more refugees in the region, including by putting large numbers to work and making them less dependent on aid. Currently, most refugees are not allowed to work legally in Jordan and Lebanon, which face high domestic unemployment. Bassil warned that Lebanon’s delegation to the conference should be on alert to the approval of any document with vague terminology that could encourage Syrians to stay in Lebanon. The foreign ministry has proposed the STEP program, which allows the short-term employment of Syrians. The project activates the economy and finds job opportunities for the Lebanese and Syrians in the agriculture and constructions sectors, he said, adding that the Syrians would put part of their salaries in private accounts which they will have access to upon their return to their country. The conflict in Syria has uprooted millions of Syrians, including more than 4 million who fled their homeland. Most live in overburdened regional host countries such as Lebanon, which has around 1.5 million refugees, and Jordan that has taken in about 630,000.

Berri Mocks Parties Relying on 'Tally' over Presidential Polls
Naharnet/February 03/16/Speaker Nabih Berri has said he would head a parliamentary session on Feb. 8 if the required quorum was met but hinted that no president would be elected, mocking the parties gearing up for the session. “I have confirmed information that some parties are relying on a tally sheet for the upcoming session” set for the election of a new president, Berri, whose remarks were published in newspapers on Wednesday, told his visitors. “They are behaving in a way that the two-thirds quorum will be met and that a president will be elected on that day,” the speaker said mockingly without naming the parties. Asked how he and his parliamentary bloc would deal with the situation, Berri said: “Like the previous sessions which I had attended, my bloc will attend the upcoming session.” “When I am informed that quorum has been met, I will head to the parliament hall and open the session,” he added. Despite his remarks, Berri is aware that there will likely be no quorum at the Feb. session over the widening differences between the parliamentary blocs. The dispute between the rival factions that have prevented the election of a president since 2014 intensified last month after Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea endorsed his long-time rival Free Patriotic Movement founder MP Michel Aoun. Some parties are backing Aoun, who heads the Change and Reform bloc, while others, including Berri and al-Mustaqbal movement chief Saad Hariri, are supporting Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh for the country's top Christian post. Franjieh is a member of Aoun's bloc but he fell out with his allies after Hariri endorsed him. Lebanon has been without a head of state since President Michel Suleiman's six-year term ended in May 2014.

Dispute on Appointments of Officers to Make a Comeback
Naharnet/February 03/16/Differences between the parties represented in the cabinet on the posts of high-ranking officers have not been resolved despite the government's appointment of three members in the Military Council, An Nahar daily reported on Wednesday. According to the newspaper, a new clash is expected to emerge in March between the different factions on the post of the head of Military Intelligence. The extended term of Army Intelligence chief Brig. Gen. Edmond Fadel will expire next month. Former President Michel Suleiman is seeking through his representative in the cabinet Defense Minister Samir Moqbel to push for the appointment of Brig. Gen. Wadih Ghafari as Army Intelligence chief, An Nahar said. Ghafari is currently the head of the Presidential Guards. But Army Commander Gen. Jean Qahwaji is backing Brig. Gen. Camille Daher, said the report. Free Patriotic Movement founder MP Michel Aoun, who has a say on the issue, has not yet named a candidate. But he will likely reject the officers named either by Moqbel or Qahwaji because of his differences with them, An Nahar added. Last week, the cabinet appointed Brig. Gen. Samir al-Hajj to the Military Council’s Orthodox seat, Brig. Gen. George Shreim to its Catholic seat, and Brig. Mohsen Fneish to its Shiite seat. Three of the posts had been vacant for two years. The appointments had also been a major contention point that had paralyzed the government for months. The FPM, backed by Hizbullah, had insisted to carry out the appointments before discussing any other issue.

EU Ambassador Christina Lassen Meets Syrian Refugees in Akkar
Naharnet/February 03/16/Ambassador Christina Lassen, head of the Delegation of the European Union to Lebanon, visited Wednesday the northern region of Akkar to meet with Syrian refugees in Kouachra, announced the EU on a statement. The visit was organized together with the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), an important partner of the European Commission Humanitarian Office (ECHO). During her visit, Lassen discussed the current difficult conditions of Syrian refugees in terms of legal status, protection, education, shelter, and access to livelihoods. The focus was on what the European Union can do best to assist and how, to ensure that humanitarian assistance to the refugees is coupled with long-term support for the Lebanese communities that host them. Ahead of the London Conference on February 4, Lassen assured that the EU “is ready to continue supporting Lebanon which has, since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, made extraordinary efforts in hosting refugees.” “The London Conference will be a major step towards more international support and an opportunity for significant investment in Lebanon,” added the EU statement."With the London Conference taking place tomorrow, I think it is important for us all to remember what this is all about: The hundreds of thousands of refugees who have come here to seek refuge and the Lebanese citizens who have hosted them and shown incredible hospitality. What I have seen today reminded me of the extremely difficult situation many of these refugees are facing, in particular now in the middle of the winter season. The EU will continue to do all we can to assist Lebanon in this crisis, and the London Conference is an opportunity for us to reconfirm and increase our support and discuss with the government of Lebanon what their priorities are for the future", said Lassen. Since 2012, the EU and its 28 Member States' response to the conflict in Syria and its spill-over into neighboring countries has reached more than EURO 4.4 billion. In Lebanon alone, the EU has given EURO 561 million to the response. The London Conference is aimed at ensuring additional financial support for the major host countries Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey.

Syrian opposition chief Hijab to join Geneva talks
AFP, Geneva Wednesday, 3 February 2016/The head of Syria’s main umbrella opposition group, former Syrian premier Riad Hijab, will arrive in Switzerland on Wednesday to join troubled peace talks, a spokesman for the group told AFP. The expected arrival of High Negotiations Committee (HNC) general coordinator Hijab is seen as a potentially positive sign, with representatives of President Bashar al-Assad’s government complaining that one of the reasons the talks cannot start is what it calls disarray among the HNC. “With Hijab here, the HNC can better demonstrate a unified position in representing the opposition,” a Western diplomat said in Geneva on condition of anonymity. The U.N.'s special envoy warned all hope to resolve Syria's civil war would be lost if the latest attempt at peace talks failed, after the opposition said Russian airstrikes threatened to derail the discussions before they had begun.
The main opposition umbrella group attending the talks said Russia's "unprecedented" bombardment near Aleppo -- 270 raids since Monday morning, according to monitors -- threatened to scupper efforts to end the almost five-year conflict. "Since last night a big massacre is taking place in Syria and nobody is doing anything. Nobody is saying anything, the international community is completely blind," said Salem al-Meslet from the HNC. On Monday, U.N. special envoy Staffan de Mistura declared that indirect talks between the government and the opposition had officially begun in Switzerland, saying he hoped to "achieve something" by February 11.
But as cracks began to emerge on Tuesday he warned they were the last chance to bring about an end to a conflict that has left 260,000 people dead and forced more than half of Syria's population to flee their homes. "If there is a failure this time, after two previous meetings in Geneva on Syria, then all hope will be lost," he told Swiss TV channel Radio Television Suisse.Chief negotiator for Syria's government, Bashar al-Jaafari, had earlier cast doubt on the gravity of the talks, saying they were still "in a preparatory phase", the opposition had not named its negotiating team and there was no agenda. And the HNC cancelled a meeting with the U.N. envoy scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, with member Farah Atassi saying that "at this moment, there is no reason to repeat ourselves with de Mistura". The group has demanded the regime allow humanitarian access to besieged towns, stop bombing civilians and release thousands of prisoners -- some of them children -- languishing in regime jails. It also expressed outrage at the regime offensive, backed by Russian jets and allied militants, that allowed government forces to edge closer to breaking a long-running rebel siege on two government-held Shiite villages in Aleppo province. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring group, said at least 18 civilians had been killed in the raids on Tuesday, including five women, three children and two emergency workers. "We have never seen things like this since the beginning of the revolution," HNC spokeswoman Basma Kodmani said, calling the air raids "unprecedented". "The regime's and Russia's actions gravely threaten the political process at this early stage," fellow HNC member Atassi said. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry weighed in Tuesday, urging the Syrian opposition to remain in peace talks despite the Russian bombing, adding that he was "extraordinarily sympathetic" to their difficult situation. "But the agreement at the United Nations and the agreement in Vienna is that when the political dialogue begins there will be a ceasefire. So the hope, the expectation is that it shouldn't take long and we're not requiring people to sit at the table for months," Kerry said. Russia said it was willing to coordinate efforts toward a Syria ceasefire with the U.S., according to Russian news agency Interfax. It also quoted deputy foreign minister Gennady Gatilov saying de Mistura would again meet the opposition negotiators "tomorrow or the day after tomorrow" and they "will announce the make-up of the delegation that will participate in talks".

Aid Convoy Enters Regime-Besieged Town near Damascus
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 03/16/An aid convoy on Wednesday entered a regime-besieged town near Syria's capital, at a time when the opposition is demanding a lifting of blockades at peace talks in Geneva, the Red Cross announced. "We entered with medical aid to Moadimayat al-Sham and we are distributing food aid in the buffer zone" between regime and rebel forces, Pawel Krzysiek, spokesman in Damascus of the International Committee of the Red Cross, told AFP. He said the joint convoy of the ICRC and the Syrian Arab Red Crescent was made up of 10 trucks loaded with food supplies and two with medical equipment and medicine. Government forces imposed a siege on rebel-held Moadimayat al-Sham at the start of 2013, but conditions improved for its residents under a truce struck a year later. But the United Nations in January re-classified Moadamiyat al-Sham as a besieged town with scant food supplies after the regime tightened access. The United Nations has been struggling to deliver aid to about 480,000 people in besieged areas. The U.N. Security Council, for its part, has adopted resolutions demanding an end to sieges imposed by both rebel and government forces as a weapon of war, but these have been largely ignored. After mounting international outrage over the starvation of civilians, aid has been delivered since the start of the year to Madaya, another town under a regime siege, as well to rebel-besieged Fuaa and Kafraya.

ICRC official says aid convoy on way to besieged Syrian town
AP | Geneva Wednesday, 3 February 2016/An aid convoy carrying food and medicine is on its way to a besieged town southwest of the Syrian capital, the second humanitarian aid delivery to rebel-held areas near Damascus in as many days, a spokesman for the International Committee for the Red Cross said Wednesday. Pawel Krzysiek told The Associated Press that 12 trucks carrying food, medicine and medical equipment were expected to arrive at Moadamiyeh later in the day. The humanitarian situation in the town, which is located about 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) southwest of Damascus, worsened toward the end of last year after the government choked off the last access point. Opposition activists and residents say there are dozens of cases of severe malnutrition in the town. On Tuesday, Krzysiek said 14 trucks of aid were also delivered to the besieged rebel suburb of al-Tal, on the outskirts of the capital. The aid delivery appears to be a confidence building gesture on the part of the government after U.N.-mediated indirect peace talks got off to a rocky start in Geneva this week. The Syrian opposition had demanded that aid be allowed into 18 besieged areas throughout the country and that Syrian and Russian forces halt the bombardment of rebel-held areas ahead of the talks, which officially began Monday. But the opposition dismissed the deliveries as an empty gesture and demanded an end to the bombing of civilians in order for the Geneva talks to go forward. Commenting on the aid on its way to Moadamiyeh, senior Syrian opposition figure George Sabra said the supplies are too small. He told AP that Riad Hijab, a former Syrian prime minister who now heads the opposition’s High Negotiations Committee, will arrive in Geneva later Wednesday, after which the opposition will hold meetings on whether to continue or leave the indirect peace talks. “We should take a decision in the coming two days,” Sabra said.

Iraq building security wall around Baghdad: military commander
Reuters, Baghdad Wednesday, 3 February 2016/Iraqi security forces have begun building a concrete wall surrounding the capital Baghdad in a bid to prevent attacks by Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants, a military statement said on Wednesday. ISIS, the ultra-hardline group that seized vast swathes of territory north and west of Baghdad, claimed several attacks in recent months in the Iraqi capital. The last one, on Jan. 11, targeted a shopping mall and killed at least 18 people, according to police sources. The planned security barrier will surround the city from all sides, said Baghdad Operations Command's head Lieutenant-General Abdul Ameer al-Shammari, in a statement published on the defense ministry's website. The preparatory work on the wall started on Monday, he said. "The security barrier around Baghdad will prevent terrorists from infiltrating the capital or smuggling explosives and car bombs to target innocent civilians," he said. Construction will start in the area of al-Subaihat, around 30 km (20 miles) to the west of Baghdad, so as to isolate it from Falluja, a long-time bastion of Sunni Muslim jihadists now under control of Islamic State. Many districts in the Iraqi capital are now surrounded by concrete fences dating back to the strife that pitted Sunnis and Shi'ites about a decade ago. Some of these concrete walls will be dismantled in the districts that are no longer deemed under threat, and used in the new wall around Baghdad, along with surveillance camera and explosives detection devices, Shammari said. The walls and barriers around the so-called Green Zone are expected to remain. Created by the U.S.-led coalition that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, this heavily fortified zone now houses the government, parliament and many embassies including those of the U.S. and Britain.

Egyptian forces kill 2 militants in clashes in upscale Cairo area
Reuters, Cairo Wednesday, 3 February 2016/Egyptian security forces killed two suspected Islamist militants during clashes in the upscale Cairo district of Maadi on Wednesday, security sources said. Egypt is trying to clamp down on Islamist militants who stepped up attacks after the army toppled president Mohammed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013. They have mostly targeted soldiers and police, but also attacked civilians. Although raids against militants are common in Egypt, they are rare in neighborhoods like Maadi, a leafy suburb which is home to a large foreign community and some of Egypt’s elite. Two police were wounded in the clashes and another two militants escaped with security forces in pursuit, security sources said. They said police had received information that armed militants were in the area. When security forces arrived, the militants opened fire and clashes ensued, the sources said.
Weapons and explosives were found nearby, they said.

Egypt overturns death sentences for 149 Islamists
AFP, Cairo Wednesday, 3 February 2016/An Egyptian court has decided on Wednesday to overturn death sentences for 149 pro-Islamists, according to an official source and reported by AFP. An Egyptian appeals court overturned on Wednesday death sentences for 149 pro-Islamists accused of killing policemen in a mob attack on their station, a judicial source said. Egyptian security forces stand guard in Giza's Kerdasa district, south of Cairo, Egypt. The court ordered a retrial for the defendants over the attack, which killed 13 policemen near Cairo on August 14, 2013, the day police shot dead hundreds of Islamist demonstrators in the capital. The initial ruling in February 2015 came amid a series of death sentences in mass trials that were criticised internationally, as the government cracked down on Islamist supporters. The court had also sentenced 37 people to death in absentia, but they would have to hand themselves in for a retrial. The grounds for the appeals court ruling were not immediately available, but the court has overturned hundreds of death sentences over the past year, to the relief of rights advocates and frustration of some in the government who have urged fast track executions. Seven people have been executed for political violence since Mohamed Mursi's ouster, including six who were convicted of belonging to an Islamist militant group. Hundreds of Islamists have been sentenced to death since the military toppled Islamist president Mursi in 2013.

Canadian who says he fought ISIS detained in Australia
Reuters, Sydney Wednesday, 3 February 2016/A Canadian who said he fought alongside Kurdish forces against ISIS in Syria has been detained while trying to enter Australia and told he will be deported, his father said on Wednesday.
Richard Somerville said his son Robert, a Canadian veteran who previously fought in Afghanistan, was detained at Brisbane airport on Tuesday after he told immigration officials he had spent seven months fighting alongside the Syrian Kurdish militant group YPG last year. “I haven’t seen my son in 20 years,” Richard Somerville, who lives in Queensland, told Reuters. “I was absolutely shocked when he called to say he was being detained.” Australian Border Force and Immigration Department officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment. “The basis for the visa cancellation is at this stage unclear,” Somerville’s Melbourne-based lawyer, Jessie Smith, told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. “It may have political undertones and could be contestable.” Australia introduced sweeping security reforms in 2014 over concern at the number of its citizens heading to Iraq and Syria to fight. About 110 Australians are estimated to be involved in the conflict. It is illegal for Australian citizens to support any armed group in Syria and fighters face life in prison upon return. The Syrian Kurds have established control over wide areas of northern Syria since the country erupted into civil war in 2011, and the YPG has become a major partner in the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS. Several foreigners, including Europeans and Americans, have joined the YPG but their numbers are dwarfed by foreign jihadist recruits to the other side. Kurds in Syria and Iraq are backed by a U.S.-led coalition, including Australia, which has been bombing ISIS in both countries.

63 children among 375 killed in Yemen attacks into Saudi Arabia
Saudi Gazette, Riyadh Wednesday, 3 February 2016/Mortars and rockets fired at Saudi Arabian towns and villages have killed 375 civilians, including 63 children, since the start of the Saudi-led military campaign in Yemen in late March, Brig. Gen. Ahmed Al-Assiri, spokesman of the coalition forces and advisor at the office of the minister of defense, told Reuters. He said that the Houthi militia and forces loyal to ousted president Ali Abdullah Saleh had fired more than 40,000 projectiles across the border since the war began. “Now our rules of engagement are: you are close to the border, you are killed,” he said. In a measure of how fierce the fighting on the frontier continues to be, nearly 130 mortars and 15 missiles were fired by the Houthis and Saleh’s forces at Saudi border positions on Monday alone, Assiri said in an interview in Riyadh. The civilians killed in Saudi Arabia included both Saudis and expatriates, Assiri said. Along the Saudi-Yemen border, the constant attacks by the Houthis and Saleh’s forces have forced the Saudi authorities to evacuate a dozen villages and over 7,000 people from frontier districts, closing over 500 schools, Assiri said.
He said the coalition had taken “hundreds” of Yemeni prisoners in fighting along the border. Assiri acknowledged that the forces were locked in what he described as a “static war,” but said the coalition was now fighting to control the mountainous Nahm region, which controls access to the capital Sanaa 70 km to the southwest. Assiri said the coalition was now allowing more ships to dock both at Aden and the Red Sea port of Hodeida. The coalition conducts random inspections of cargo, he said, but added that it believes some weapons are smuggled through.

Hadi vows to push until Houthis defeated in Sanaa
By Staff writer Al Arabiya English Tuesday, 2 February 2016/Yemeni President Abdrabu Mansur Hadi said Tuesday that military operations against Houthi militias would not stop until the Yemeni capital was liberated. Backed by airstrikes from the Saudi-led coalition, popular resistance and Yemeni armed forces loyal to Hadi are fighting Houthis who control Sanaa and much of the country’s north. Hadi, the internationally recognized president of Yemen, described the operation to recapture Sanaa as a “decisive battle that is irreversible,” in a phone call with the governor of Sanaa, cited by the Saudi Press Agency (SPA). Hadi said pro-government forces had achieved “a number of victories in parts of Sanaa” and that the military operation would not end until the Yemeni capital was “liberated from coup militias.”Meanwhile, Yemeni security officials and tribal elders said fighting has intensified outside Sanaa, killing at least 30 people in two days. They said Tuesday that some 25 fighters from both sides were killed in fighting between government forces and Houthis and their allies some 65 kilometers east of the capital. Five civilians were also killed. In the southern port city of Aden, fighting erupted Tuesday night between government forces and al-Qaeda fighters after authorities set up roadblocks as part of a security plan. Yemen's conflict pits a loose array of government-allied forces against Houthi rebels and troops loyal to a former president Ali Abdullah Saleh. The officials, who are neutral in the conflict, and tribal elders spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief reporters. (with the Associated Press)

Iraqi-Kurdish leader urges independence vote
Reuters, Erbil Wednesday, 3 February 2016/Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region should hold a non-binding referendum on independence, its president said on Tuesday, despite the numerous crises it is facing. Massoud Barzani has previously called for a referendum but set no timetable for a proposed vote. The chaos created by ISIS's occupation of swathes of Iraq and Syria has given Kurds a chance to further their long-held dream of independence. But the region is currently struggling to avert an economic collapse. "The time has come and the situation is now suitable for the Kurdish people to make a decision through a referendum on their fate," Barzani said in a statement on his website. "That referendum does not mean proclaiming statehood, but rather to know the will and opinion of the Kurdish people about independence and for the Kurdish political leadership to execute the will of the people at the appropriate time and conditions."In recent years Iraq's Kurds have sought to maximize their autonomy, building their own pipeline to Turkey and exporting oil independently as relations with the federal government in Baghdad frayed over power and revenue sharing. The global slump in oil prices however has compounded existing economic problems, bringing the region to the point of insolvency. Regional powers have historically opposed Kurdish aspirations for independence, especially neighboring states with large Kurdish minorities of their own. The United States also says it wants the Kurds to remain part of Iraq. "If the people of Kurdistan are waiting for someone else to present the right of self-determination as a gift, independence will never be obtained. That right exists and the people of Kurdistan must demand it and put it into motion," Barzani said. Some view such calls for independence as an attempt to divert attention from internal issues and rally Kurds behind Barzani, whose mandate as president expired last year, but remains in office. "The same way that Scotland, Catalonia and Quebec and other places have the right to express their opinions about their destiny, Kurdistan too has the right, and it's non-negotiable".

Saudi Arabia publishes list of 154 wanted terror suspects on the run
Saudi Gazette, Riyadh Wednesday, 3 February 2016/Saudi security authorities are on the lookout for 154 wanted terror suspects named in nine lists published by the Ministry of Interior earlier, according to sources. The ministry asked those who have any information about these wanted men to tip off the security agencies by calling 990 or by visiting the nearest security post. The informer will get ($260,000) SR1 million for information about one wanted person. The reward will be increased to SR5 million in the event of providing information about more than one wanted suspect. If the information helps in foiling a terrorist attack, the reward amount will be increased to ($1,860,000) SR7 million. The security agencies also updated the list of suspects arrested during the past eight days from various regions of Saudi Arabia, according to sources. The arrested suspects include 15 Saudis, 12 Egyptians, one Syrian, a Pakistani and a Jordanian. This is in addition to the earlier arrests, which Saudi Gazette was the first to report on Sunday. Eight of the nine Americans were detained in the past three months, according to a website belonging to the Interior Ministry. The detainee list shows four Americans were arrested in November and December of 2015 and another four Americans were detained on Jan. 25. One U.S. citizen was arrested in March 2007 and was convicted and has the right to appeal. The latest update to the official list, which includes 5,158 detainees who are mostly Saudi nationals, was made on Monday. The list of detainees is posted on the Interior Ministry’s Nafethah website, which helps relatives communicate with detainees.

Libyan lawmakers sacked for signing U.N.-backed unity deal
AFP, Tripoli Wednesday, 3 February 2016/Libya’s unrecognized Islamist-backed parliament on Tuesday dismissed 10 lawmakers who signed a U.N.-brokered deal to set up a national unity government, members said. First deputy head of the Tripoli-based General National Congress, Awad Mohammed Abdul-Sadiq, told a news conference the GNC “sacked some of the members who signed” the December agreement in Morocco. Those parliamentarians were not “authorized” to ratify the deal and were excluded from the GNC because they “violated the (2011) constitution” and their pledge to respect the charter, he added. A spokesman told AFP the decision affected 10 parliamentarians, including GNC vice president Saleh el-Makhzoum. Libya has had two rival administrations, with the recognized authorities based in the country’s far east and a militia-backed authority in Tripoli since the summer of 2014. In mid-December, only a minority of lawmakers from both sides signed the U.N.-backed deal to unify the government in the oil-rich North African nation. But both the internationally recognized parliament and the GNC have opposed the deal despite calls from the international community for them to ratify the agreement. A national unity government headed by businessman Fayez al-Sarraj and comprising 32 ministers was formed in January but was rejected by the recognized parliament. Libya has been in chaos since the 2011 ouster of longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi. The U.N. and several countries have warned that delaying the formation of a government plays into the hands of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria group which has fed on the instability to spread in the country.

Jerusalem Attack Kills Policewoman, Attackers Shot Dead
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 03/16/Three Palestinians armed with rifles, knives and explosives attacked Israeli police outside Jerusalem's Old City on Wednesday, killing one officer and wounding another before being shot dead. The attack outside the Old City's Damascus Gate was part of a four-month wave of violence, but was among the most severe in Jerusalem, where many assaults have involved knives. The policewoman who died had been shot in the head, medical officials said. According to Israeli authorities, the Palestinians were approached by border police for ID checks. "As one was producing identification, his accomplices... started firing and stabbing and managed to wound two female officers," a police statement said. The surviving officer's injuries were described as "moderate to serious". Officers opened fire and killed the attackers, police said, adding that they were from the northern West Bank. They were believed to be 19 to 20 years old. Palestinian shopkeepers near the scene said they heard heavy gunfire. Security forces locked down the area afterwards as crowds gathered to see what happened or to try to return to their homes in the Old City. Damascus Gate is frequently used by Palestinians to enter the Old City, though sometimes by tourists as well. Mayor Nir Barkat told reporters at the scene that their arrival with weapons in Jerusalem meant that a further clampdown on access routes from the adjoining West Bank should be examined. "We need to tighten (restrictions) on the places from which the threat comes," he said. Israel occupied east Jerusalem, where Damascus Gate is located, in the 1967 Six-Day War and later annexed it in a move never recognized by the international community. Major roads to and from the occupied West Bank pass through Israeli security checkpoints and a concrete wall runs through much of the area but the border is still porous in many places. A wave of Palestinian knife, gun and car-ramming attacks erupted in October. Most of the attacks have been stabbings, although there have also been occasional shootings. Wednesday's attack was the bloodiest in Jerusalem since December 23, when at the Old City's Jaffa Gate an Israeli was stabbed to death and another shot dead, seemingly from a stray police bullet as officers fired on and killed the two Palestinian assailants. A third Israeli was wounded in that stabbing.Speaking about the latest violence, police spokeswoman Luba Samri said there was evidence the assailants were seeking to carry out a major attack. "Found on the terrorists' bodies were (Swedish-designed) Carl Gustav rifles, knives and explosive devices which were defused by bomb disposal experts," she said. Pictures released by police showed what appear to be two vintage-model submachine guns. "The arms testify to a complex attack that was prevented by the forces who protected Jerusalem residents with their bodies," Samri said in a statement. Shortly after the attack, Israeli media were calling it "an escalation" in the more than four months of violence. In the aftermath, a police helicopter hovered overhead and cleanup teams hosed away pools of blood. The wave of violence has killed 26 Israelis, as well as an American and an Eritrean, according to an AFP count. At the same time, 164 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, most while carrying out attacks but others during clashes and demonstrations. An Israeli teenager was lightly wounded on Saturday in a stabbing attack at the Damascus Gate allegedly carried out by two young Palestinians, who were arrested in a sweep of the area later. Some analysts say Palestinian frustration with Israel's occupation of the West Bank, the complete lack of progress in peace efforts and their own fractured leadership have helped feed the unrest. Israel blames incitement by Palestinian leaders and media as a main cause of the violence. Many of the attackers have been young people, including teenagers, who appear to have been acting on their own. "We are seeing more armed attacks in the last month," said Ofer Zalzberg, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group think-tank."Mostly we have seen shooting at settler cars in the West Bank but also attacks like today. The lethality of attacks has been increasing."

ISIS’ infiltration within our societies
Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 03/16
Not a single day passes without a news piece related to violence, while politicians are continuously speaking at press conferences about terrorism and its motives. Blood has become the daily bread in many Muslim societies, as well as the rest of the world. This is why Saudi Arabia has established major alliances in the region. The first alliance was aimed at restoring legitimacy in Yemen through Operation “Decisive Storm” and Operation “Renewal of Hope,” while another alliance of 40 Muslim-majority countries was formed to battle terrorism. In a press conference held towards the end of last year, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Prince Mohammad bin Salman said terrorism must be fought on military, ideological and media fronts. This is the basis to discuss any strategy related to fighting terrorism. Gulf countries have been militarily successful in the war against terrorism; however the media and ideological fronts require a lot of work and refinement. They have been the weakest links in the war against terrorist organizations ever since the war on al-Qaeda was launched and up until the present day war against ISIS. Without balanced work to combat terror on military, ideological and media fronts, we will never be able to create strong tools to root out terrorism
Let's take the deadly terrorist suicide bombing at a mosque in the southern Saudi city of Abha on August 6 of last year as an example. Shocking information revealed by the interior ministry a few days ago stated that an explosive belt was transferred by a woman called Abeer al-Harbi, while a soldier betrayed the oath he made to protect his country and cooperated with the terrorist cell's leader to facilitate the suicide bomber’s entry into the mosque. This soldier then concealed his act of betrayal by assisting his colleagues after the attack.
Influence and infiltration
This influence and infiltration of terrorism is a factor of power for a group that uses soft power to almost always achieve guaranteed goals. Without collaboration on media and ideological fronts to support military work on the ground, terrorist cells will become more expansive and their violence will be worse than that of the al-Muannasiya and al-Dhramah cells, which carried out the Abha mosque attack. These terrorist cells exposed by the interior ministry were linked through their infiltration of several institutions. Recruiting a woman, Harbi, was an indicator that the operation was cautiously and maliciously planned.
Military work cannot address the ideological aspect of fighting terrorism, which is linked to education, or even terrorist recruitment of members from the same family. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are known to have recruited several members of the same family, one example being the al-Tuwaijri family. Abduljabbar bin Homood bin Abdulaziz al-Tuwaijri who was convicted of targeting military and security headquarters in Saudi Arabia, was executed on January 3. There was also Abdullah Abdulaziz Ibrahim al-Tuwaijri who blew himself up in Abqaiq in eastern Saudi Arabia on February 2006 and Abdulrahman Abdullah Suleiman al-Tuwaijri, the suicide bomber who blew himself up outside a mosque in the Ahsa region last Friday. Abdulrahman had been previously arrested for participating in protests demanding the release of men and women detained on terrorist charges. His brother had joined ISIS in Iraq.
Extremist organizations work within a huge network. Security forces may succeed at repelling these organizations on the ground, but it's not their task to perform the role of educational institutions and alter educational strategies or break the media's stubborn routines. These are joint tasks that should be shared by governmental and non-governmental institutions and the wider society. This is what Prince Mohammad bin Salman implied during the press conference he held to announce the formation of the Islamic military alliance.
Without balanced work to combat terror on military, ideological and media fronts, we will never be able to create strong tools to root out terrorism.

Arab Shiites must reclaim religious authority from Iran
Mohammad al-Sulami/Al Arabiya/February 03/16
It's well-known that Iraq is the origin and base of Shiite authority in the Middle East. It was first Baghdad then Najaf, and this lasted for centuries. Iran's Qom however did not emerge as a religious center until the first quarter of the 20th Century, and it did not emerge as a reference for Shiites until the Iranian revolution erupted and the mullahs seized power in Tehran. In other words, Arabs, and not the Persians, have throughout history been the leaders and references of the Shiite sect. After the Iranian revolution, Iran worked on a strategy to market itself as a leader and embracer of Shiites across the world, particularly within its geographic surroundings. It assigned itself as defender of the Shiites to the extent that it included an item in the constitution that stipulates defending what Tehran calls "the vulnerable," a term that means Shiite and Shiism but with an embellished touch.
Through its "umm al-qura" (mother of villages) theory, Iran has sought to replace the capital of the Islamic world, Makkah, with Qom. But Iran miserably failed, so it worked on turning Qom into the capital of the Shiite sect and thus replacing Najaf. It worked on attracting some Arab Shiite clerics and provided support through seminaries which are taught in Arabic in that small city. It also offered scholarships to Shiite youths, of whom many were recruited in Iran and returned home to become part of Iran's cells in the Arab world. This is how Iran’s Velayat-e Faqih ideology and principles, which are characterized with an extremist Persian touch, were exported to Shiite communities in the Arab world. However, Iran's major aim will not just be achieved by focusing on Qom and making it stand out. Iran has reached a conviction that it won't achieve its aims unless by marginalizing and weakening the Arab Shiite authority in the region. It has therefore resorted to using the carrot and stick approach and demonizing its rivals, fabricating accusations against them or assassinating them. It has also warned of certain Shiite figures who are well-aware of the Iranian project which does not care about the Shiite sect itself as much as it cares about possessing all the means to achieve its nationalistic and political aims in the region. Among these Shiite symbols that were targeted or marginalized in Iraq and Lebanon are al-Hasani, al-Waeli, al-Khoei, al-Sarkhi, al-Husseini, al-Amin and others.
Will Arab Shiites liberate the Shiite sect from Iran’s grip?
Transferring the Shiite authority from Iraq to Iran and the "Persianization" of the sect also means Tehran's seizure of the funds collected from Khums tax and Nadhrs vows. I believe Iran would use these funds to support its political and sectarian agenda in the region as it has military wings and militias in many countries where there are Shiites - militias who operate in Iran's favor and against their countries' interests. Therefore, there's an urgent need to issue decisions and legislations that criminalize exporting these Khums and Nadhrs funds to other countries and to make sure they're spent on the poor.
Iran does not represent all Shiites
Given all this, we must ask the question of whether Iran is the only party to blame for this. Objectively speaking, I think it's inaccurate to say Iran is the only one to blame as some Arabs have directly or indirectly contributed to leading Shiites into Iran's arms. Viewing Iran and Shiites as two sides of the same coin is a huge mistake. Not all the Shiites imitate Khamenei or believe in Velayat-e Faqih or believe in the sectarian extremism which contaminated the sect over five centuries ago, which was revived following the 1979 revolution.
I've always said that Iran does not represent all Shiites and vice versa. Iran is not 100% Shiite; Sunnis constitute about 10% of the population. The Iranian population is also made up of several other religions and sects. Logically speaking, we must not consider that all Shiites are linked to Iran. There are Shiite patriots who are loyal to their countries and who are well-aware of the Iranian threat. Yes, many of them do not clearly show this out of fear that Iran's proxies will harm them, harass them or fabricate false accusations against them. However this does not mean they are not out there. Bringing Arab Shiites who admire Iran back to the Arab embrace and keeping them away from Iran can be achieved through several steps which Arab Shiites themselves can do before others. Restoring the Shiite authority to Najaf is also a pan-Arab necessity. It's also important that Shiites in Arab Gulf countries establish references for their sect in their countries - references which are linked to them and which they can give their Khums and Nadhrs funds to. This will prevent Iran from infiltrating their countries and societies. It will also help them see how non-Persian Shiites are being treated in Iran and how Tehran persecutes minorities in Ahaz, Azerbaijan and other areas. Arabs, Azeris and Turks in Iran are unjustly treated by the ruling power in Tehran despite the fact that they belong to the Shiite sect. So in what way do you expect Iran to treat Shiites who are outside its borders?
In brief, the Iranian regime's major aim of alleging to support and defend Shiites in the region can only be seen within the context of serving the Iranian political project in the region. Iran wants to use Shiite minorities to serve this project. Are those fooled by Iran aware of this truth? And more importantly, will Arab Shiites liberate the Shiite sect from Iran’s grip?

Egypt and Russia: Do they really understand each other?
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/February 03/16
Even as the flight ban imposed since the downing of the Russian airplane over Sinai remains in place, and continues to damage the Egyptian economy, Russia’s politicians have landed in Cairo for the first time since the incident.
During this first high level of talks since the ban the two sides took off from where the two presidents had left at the beginning of the crisis and tried to establish connections between institutions on both the sides, including enhancing security in the airports of Egypt. The first to visit Cairo was a Russian Parliament delegation led by speaker of the lower chamber, Serguey Naryshkin. Media in both the countries gave a lot of attention to the visit, focusing not only on the significance of the visit itself but also on bilateral relations. Naryshkin was also expected to address the issue of flight ban. Hence reports of ban being lifted soon occupied the headlines.
On Tuesday (Jan 2.) the inter-governmental commission on trade, economic and scientific cooperation, held a session in Cairo. Many issues on the bilateral agenda were discussed. On the eve of this meeting, Egypt’s trade and industry minister, Tarek Kabil, declared the country’s intention to sign free trade agreement with Eurasian Economic Union and talked about cooperation in areas such as electricity and nuclear energy.
Apparently Russia is posturing to get as many privileges as it can squeeze out from Egypt before it lifts the ban. Egypt has also granted Russia land in Suez for its industrial zone construction and has invited Russia to join its oil fields exploration. Among other things, Egypt asked for an increase in the number of flights between Moscow and destinations in Egypt from 6 to 14 per week. On the other hand, Russia gave permission to five Egyptian companies to deliver cheese to the Russian market, while it expects Egypt’s help in import of fruits, vegetables and other products to replace the banned Turkish and European ones. Russia said it will lease four its SSJ-100 airplanes to Egypt for use within the region. Moscow insisted on simpler access in the Egyptian market for Russia’s pharma products. They also signed a MoU for developing investment cooperation between Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and Egypt’s National Bank and Banque Misr. Cooperation in agriculture was also discussed.
Devil in the detail
On the whole things look good between both the countries. However, as usual, the devil hides in the detail. Russia keeps saying that the flight ban will be addressed in the foreseeable future, which is indeed vague. For a country losing $281 million each month owing to the ban – $1 billion since the beginning of the crisis – lifting the ban is most vital. Apparently Russia is posturing to get as many privileges as it can squeeze out from Egypt before it lifts the ban. Egypt’s problem has been exacerbated by the fact that the economic situation has aggravated inside Russia as well. The drop in oil prices has had its impact on the Russian currency and, as a result, on salaries. Even the cheapest trips to Egypt are expensive for the middle and lower middle classes, who happened to be the key to the Egyptian tourism market. Even though strong flow of tourists cannot be expected just after the flight ban, Russia’s domestic problems aren’t helping. Egypt’s intention to join the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union would not meet expectations of the Egyptian side. Egypt expects to boost its trade and enhance flow of foreign investments into the Egyptian economy but the investment capacities of EEU counties are very limited. Russia cannot continue to invest while its economy keeps searching for the bottom. Moreover, investments in Egypt are risky at the moment as concerns have been raised over stability of the ruling regime. EEU countries, led by Russia, have limited understanding of the Egyptian market.
Local conditions
Russian businesses have limited comprehension of how to work in the Arab world in general and Egypt in particular. This lack of understanding influences the way Russians look at the Arab world, sometimes underestimating the possibilities of cooperation between companies on either sides. Industrial zone of Suez could be very attractive to Russia, if only Russia had enough money and capacity. Seen in this perspective, the Russian industrial zone project appears vague at least at this stage.
Egypt’s food exports, even if desired by Russia, is dangerous as import growth automatically leads to a price rise in domestic market, which it can hardly survive. Other problem for Egypt is transportation cost, which makes Egyptian products expensive. Hence, Egypt incurs losses instead of gains. However, the perspective of bilateral cooperation in electricity and nuclear spheres seem positive and so is joint exploration of oil fields and joint projects in agriculture. The key problem between the two countries, apart from their economic crises, is that they have little understanding of each other. The invitation to Egyptian businessmen, during Tuesday’s meeting, to consider investing in a tramway project in Moscow shows Russia’s lack of understanding of what is going inside Egypt. It shows that Moscow doesn’t take its counterparts in Egypt as seriously as it should. On the other hand, Egypt’s high expectations from cooperation with Russia also shows that Egypt has little understanding of the current situation in Russia and that it takes Russia too seriously. It is committing a mistake by putting too much stake in it and promising so many things to Russia while dreaming about the return of an average of 3,000,000 Russian tourists to its resorts.

Could current oil prices be the new normal?
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Al Arabiya/February 03/16
True to form, no sooner have sanctions been lifted then Tehran has moved to decisively ramp up energy production, the lifeblood of its struggling economy. While it will take some months for the Islamic Republic to meet its ambitious goal of increasing oil production by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), there is little doubt that it will eventually get there, further exacerbating the present over-supply of energy that has so dramatically driven world-wide prices down. In June 2014 oil stood at $120 a barrel; today the price stands at around $30 a barrel, a precipitous tumble of some 70 percent. Iran’s latest energy gambit must be seen in the larger context of what is going on in the world’s energy market, and especially, what is driving prices down to unheard-of levels, and what is keeping them there. We can start and easily dispense with the important demand side of the equation. There is little doubt that American hedge funds would step in and buy up smaller energy companies bankrupted by the Rockefeller strategy. Apart from booming India, and just possibly China, increased demand simply isn’t on the cards anywhere else in the world. Muted demand would be a challenge to global oil producers, even apart from what is happening on the wild and woolly supply side. Saudi Arabia, as the swing producer in OPEC, have forthrightly embarked upon what I call the John D. Rockefeller strategy in energy markets. To see off growing competition, especially from the U.S. shale revolution, Riyadh has acted much as the great 19th century American oil tycoon so often did. Rockefeller would increase his oil production, even enduring significant medium-term economic pain for his company as a result, all to know he could drive his erstwhile competitors out of business, thereby preserving market share.
As Saudi Arabia possesses one of the world’s largest capital reserves, and as high-grade oil can be brought to market from the country more cheaply than almost anywhere, a sustained attack on medium-price producers like the emerging American shale industry makes a great deal of sense, on the surface.
Protecting market share
As such – and despite howls of protest from far more inefficient energy producers like Venezuela – OPEC has yet to blink, maintaining production at near record levels. With tensions between Tehran and Riyadh at their highest in decades, there is virtually no chance that OPEC will agree on meaningful production cuts anytime in the near future. But if OPEC isn’t blinking, shale isn’t wilting. Despite a sharp fall over 2015 in the number of rigs in use – due to the Saudi Rockefeller strategy – the U.S. managed to sustain production of 9 million bpd over the course of the year. The simple reason for this is that shale drilling has become more efficient as engineers learn how to better work with the new technologies that surround the industry. It is now estimated that shale drilling is still economical even when the price hits $50 a barrel, a marked improvement in its performance, if still not as economical as Saudi Arabia’s drilling. The other major advantage of shale is that its rigs can be turned on and off like a water tap, and are thus far more price sensitive than the fixed rigs that dominate energy production in the rest of the world.
Because of this, American production can nimbly ebb and flow. So even if the Saudis win their Rockefeller strategy, and drive shale producers to cap their rigs due to the low price over time, as the price then invariably begins to rise, shale will quickly come back on-line. In essence, the shale revolution has put a permanent influence over oil prices. Further, even if shale companies are driven out of business that is no real hardship for the industry as a whole. The entire history of American wildcatting in the energy industry is about companies dramatically rising and falling, with the inherent value of oil meaning there were always corporate giants ready and eager to take their place. In this case, there is little doubt that American hedge funds – some of whom have already evinced an interest – would step in and buy up smaller energy companies bankrupted by the Rockefeller strategy on the cheap, waiting to cash in as the price rises. American energy production is largely in private hands, which means that there is always another company ready to step into the energy market. New normal? Given all this evidence, there is little doubt that energy prices will remain low, well into the medium term. Global demand is slowing and (barring India) there are no obvious bright spots ahead to power increased energy consumption. OPEC members are now intent on pursuing their strategy. Iran is coming back online. Shale is not wilting, and is generally proving surprisingly resurgent. All this definitively means that low oil prices are now becoming the new normal.

The economic motives behind Israeli occupation
Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/February 03/16
In the interminable discussion of breaking the stalemate between Palestinians and Israelis, the economic aspect of the Israeli occupation and its impact on Palestinians human rights is mostly pushed aside. A new report by the New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) highlights how Israeli and international businesses have helped to entrench the Israeli occupation of the West Bank. This is done in violation of their human rights obligations and at the expense of Palestinians’ most basic rights to their land, freedom of movement and ability to benefit from natural resources on that land. As much as the settlers’ movement and their political allies in the Israeli government are hard at work in presenting the occupation and settlement building as a security imperative, for the survival of the Jewish state, they conveniently conceal that it is also a very profitable economic enterprise. The Israel’s security, ideological and economic motives for imposing its control over the lives of millions of Palestinians is becoming almost impossible to undo, especially in the face of an international community that ignores this triple nexus. This HRW report indirectly also exposes the economic motives behind the decision of many Jewish Israelis to live in the occupied territories of the West Bank. If the impetus behind the first wave of settlers and settlements was anchored by mainly messianic-nationalist-religious zeal, economics played a bigger role for most those who followed them.
Occupation for economic reasons is no better than for ideological ones, but it suggests alternative remedies. Shortage of properties and increased house prices in Israel proper, coupled with a range of government financial incentives, including cheap mortgages and loans, encouraged immigration into Palestinians territories. Occupation for economic reasons is no better than for ideological ones, but it suggests alternative remedies. Admittedly, those whose parents and grandparents moved for economic reasons to colonize the West Bank, on behalf of the Israeli government, might develop ideological, atavistic or even sentimental attachments. However, exploring the economic draw could open the door for a discourse, which is neither based on security nor ideology for the repatriation of Jewish settlers back to the Israeli side of the Green Line.
Contravention of law
It is almost universally agreed that the Israeli settlements have been built in direct contravention of the laws of occupation. By transferring citizens into a territory occupied by Israel since 1967 and by displacing Palestinians from their land in the West Bank, the Israeli government violates the Fourth Geneva Convention that explicitly prohibits these actions. Moreover, under the provisions of the Rome Statute, the International Criminal Court has the jurisdiction over war crimes, such as the one established by the Fourth Geneva convention. The HRW report brings compelling evidence that companies, whether Israeli or international, by merely conducting business in or with settlements contribute to Israel’s violations of international humanitarian law and human rights abuses. Most worryingly, this 162 page report demonstrates how these human rights abuses can revolve around some of the most mundane, yet significant, aspects of daily life.
On the contrary, these rights make the difference between living a free, prosperous and dignified life or not. Under these circumstances, even granting a waste management company the right to service settlements, by operating a landfill on confiscated land in the Jordan Valley, is a human rights and political issue.
To make things worse, other violations of human rights harm Palestinians’ ability to earn a living or build homes. Currently they are restricted to building on only one percent of area C in the West Bank, which is under Israeli administrative control. Israeli businesses thrive on using the country’s military might to expropriate land for building “industrial zones”, twenty of them so far, or cultivating agricultural land. The inevitable and unacceptable product of Israeli settlement activity is the confiscation of land, water and other natural resources at the expense of the Palestinian people. This is done with the support of the banking sector, which finances these business enterprises and makes them seemingly culprits in prolonging the occupation. In a territory where there are two different legal systems – one military law for Palestinians and another civil law for Jews – there is no justice for the occupied. Consequentially, the confiscation of land, displacement and restrictions of Palestinians’ movement have become the norm, without recourse to law or legal remedy.
Abuse of labor
Furthermore, there is constant labour abuse of Palestinians that have very little choice but to seek employment in the settlements. They are caught between job shortage within the Palestinian economy and dwindling number of permits to work inside Israel. The alternative is jobs offered in settlements that in many cases pay less than the minimum wage and with very little social benefits. Admittedly settlers have not invented economic exploitation and are not the only ones to use it to their economic advantage, but the political context of occupation and dispossession makes it even more unscrupulous. The involvement of international companies in aiding and abetting the Israeli occupation reflects another sad reality, as to how profits for these companies are often prioritized over their corporate social responsibility, while also ignoring the U.N. Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights.
Whether it is an international real estate company based in the United States, that operates a subsidiary in Israeli settlements, or a European company, which operates a quarry in the West Bank and pays millions of US dollars in taxes to the Samaria Regional Council; the result is the perpetuation of Israeli control over an occupied land and people. A single report as meticulously researched and balanced might not change realities immediately, but it immensely contributes toward reminding companies of their obligations to human rights and humanitarian law. The longer the occupation continues the more it becomes economically valuable and adds another tier of difficulties in reaching a peaceful solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Talk of a Saudi-Iranian Settlement
Ali Ibrahim/Asharq Al Awsat/February 03/16
The Secretary General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon was not the first to call for a settlement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to resolve their differences in order to provide stability in the Middle East and to extinguish the fires of conflict. These calls emerged after the nuclear agreement was signed by Iran and P5+1 spearheaded by the United States. This coincided with the whetting of the west’s appetite for contracts worth tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of dollars with Tehran who will obtain its frozen funds after international sanctions were lifted. The settlement of disputes is beautiful diplomatic talk that no one can object to. Nevertheless, for there to be real prospects of a settlement that serves the interests of all involved, details must be worked out and playing with words diplomatically must be avoided. In addition to this, both sides must be treated equally. However, the facts on the ground do not reflect this.
Facts and recent history indicate that Riyadh has made every possible effort during the presidencies of a number of Iranian presidents including the current President Rouhani to normalise relations with Tehran on the basis that it is a geographical neighbour, an Islamic country and that Saudi Arabia will not benefit from engaging in a feud with it. There was a climax of attempts at rapprochement and the elimination of differences during the days of Khatami and Rafsanjani, and there was optimism when Rouhani became president.
However, these efforts always collided with the internal conflict in Iran between the conservative camps, the Revolutionary Guards, the religious establishments there and the reformists.
There has always been a problem with the complex power structure in Iran because it is a republic but the president elected from amongst the people does not have complete power. The Supreme Guide is the one who enjoys political and religious authority and is the real force that drives the state. Then there is the Assembly of Experts that determines who has the right to stand for elections and filters candidates for the political arena. This composition controls Iran’s foreign policies and adventures and its scuffles with the Arab world whether that is in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or Yemen via Tehran’s encouraging, funding and arming militias to occupy the place of states in decision making. Examples of this are Hezbollah in Lebanon or waging sectarian wars that broke up the social fabric of Arab peoples.
It is in the interests of the Arab side for these fires to be extinguished. These fires that have transformed half of Syria’s population into refugees and have allowed large areas of land in Iraq to fall into the hands of terrorists with sectarian ideologies and transformed Yemen into destroyed cities which Iranian backed militias are trying to control. Evidence indicates that any real improvement in relations is linked to an internal change in Iran, but so far there hasn’t been any. According to The Economist magazine, Rouhani was not able to enjoy the nuclear agreement celebrations because the Assembly of Experts warned most reformists against running in the upcoming parliamentary elections and Washington imposed new sanctions due to Iran’s missile program. Diplomatic talk is useless. The truth of the matter is that Saudi Arabia and the Arab alliance are in a defensive position and are extinguishing the fires in their countries whilst Iran is igniting these fires and using them as a bargaining chip with the west in the nuclear negotiations. A change in direction depends on the direction of the internal conflict in Iran and Arabs, despite their differences, want to deal with real countries and establishments and not the Revolutionary Guards or Basij forces.

Lining Up the Tools to Break the Islamic State Brand
Alberto M. Fernandez/Washington Institute/February 03/16
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/lining-up-the-tools-to-break-the-islamic-state-brand
Reversing the political, military, and ideological factors that led to the movement's rise will require substantive projects that are as self-sustaining and nimble as IS has proven to be.
The Islamic State brand is an ambitious and seductive vision that has proven to be a tremendous media success. Yet this vision is ultimately tethered to the perception of an actual, functioning utopian state. Military action against IS havens in Syria and Iraq is thus the most effective way to puncture the group's propaganda balloon. Ongoing efforts toward that end are producing some tangible results, but all too slowly. And while technical measures to diminish the volume of IS material available on social media are also important, the brand is now a mature one that is well understood and internalized by proponents and adversaries alike. Washington will therefore need to find more creative ways of getting its own message across, mainly via its partners in the Middle East.
REBRANDING AND WORKING THROUGH PROXIES
On the surface, the recent rebranding of the Center for Strategic Counterterrorism Communications (CSCC) into the Global Engagement Center seems to be nothing more than a public relations gambit. Not one of the responsibilities listed in the State Department press release announcing the change was new -- CSCC had worked on all of these tasks as far back as 2011. According to press accounts, however, the new center will no longer be in the direct messaging business. If its budget remains the same -- about $5.5 million per year -- the move away from direct messaging would free up approximately $3.5 million for the creation of overseas proxies and indirect messaging platforms.
Earmarking more funds for such efforts is certainly worth trying, assuming the programs in question include solid performance metrics and congressional oversight. Yet the one visible example of a Middle Eastern messaging proxy has not lived up to its promise, at least not yet. Launched to great fanfare in July 2015, the Sawab Center in the United Arab Emirates is largely funded by Abu Dhabi, with two American foreign service officers detailed to the operation. Its output -- some 2,900 tweets in over six months -- has been a bit underwhelming, resembling a smaller, more timid version of CSCC's digital outreach team. Although it should have greater freedom to do things that overt U.S. government communications avoid, Sawab is missing two things that the IS brand has in abundance: volume and passion. The idea behind Sawab is solid, however, and one hopes that it will mature, and that similar initiatives in the pipeline will evolve into something more substantive and consequential.
Unsure about how to proceed in the propaganda war, the U.S. government wasted much of 2015, as news reports presented an image of confusion and drift compounded by poor management and infighting over the right formula to follow. Apparent micromanaging by the National Security Council, a risk-averse mentality, and obsessive attention to form over substance prevailed. Perhaps something has been learned from this debacle and the center's new, well-regarded leadership will be empowered to do the necessary work. The government seems to be making the beginnings of slow progress, but it is too early to tell.
INCREASING VOLUME AND FINDING VOICES
Some of last year's efforts to facilitate information on IS defectors and recanters could prove very valuable and should be supported and expanded. As IS fighters return to their home countries, governments should find creative ways to incentivize counterradicalization media outreach as much as integration and law enforcement. In Washington, the disconnect at the top levels of government does not detract from the dogged work being done in this field by dedicated civil servants, foreign service officers, and authorities detailed from other agencies.
Given the importance of Iraq and especially Syria to how the IS discourse is sold to Western and non-Western audiences distant from the front, there is real value in empowering Sunni Muslim voices in those war-torn countries who can speak directly to wavering individuals outside the Middle East. In essence, their message would be, "I am one of those Muslims whom IS claims to be defending, and the image that the group is presenting to you of our reality is a false one." The power of such personal testimony is clear in the videos propagated by IS itself -- so many of the individuals who appear in these messages speak clearly and directly, stating all sorts of awful things with uncovered faces and tremendous conviction. Last month, the Telegraph described how London police have used videos of Syrian mothers speaking in Arabic to reach out to the British population. This is a worthy experiment -- the question is whether it can be deepened and individualized to replicate the one-to-one radicalization process that is so often a key factor in influencing new recruits. It should be.
As detailed by recent PBS NewsHour coverage, the U.S. government and others are also funding some interesting work in the peer-to-peer interactive realm on social media, often through universities. These efforts seek to begin redressing the imbalance between the time that IS and Washington respectively invest in recruitment. Only time will tell whether such small projects will be able to contest the individual approach pioneered by IS and its volunteer recruiters, but it is a worthwhile investment to make.
IDEOLOGY MATTERS TOO
The U.S. government should also find room for a well-funded regional media effort promoting tolerant, liberal Arab Muslim values in contrast to the vision of Salafi jihadism. This is a longer-term project that has value in promoting the pluralism and open discourse that are anathema to movements like IS and al-Qaeda. Some pioneering efforts to do this have arisen in the private sector (e.g., Fikra Forum). And clearly there are enough eloquent individuals in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and even the Gulf states who hold tolerant worldviews but are rarely empowered by Washington or anyone else -- certainly not on a consistent basis, and not remotely like the support lavished on a range of non-IS Salafi media.
Again, this is not something the U.S. government can do directly, but it can certainly prioritize the promotion of such efforts among its regional partners. President Obama has spoken several times about the importance of defeating the Islamic State's ideology, but he has done so without explaining what that ideology is or how to counter it. Indeed, shifting to indirect initiatives underscores the deficit in the government's direct counterterrorism communications efforts. All too often, its default approach has been to work with friendly governments or contract the task to companies or organizations inside the Beltway. To be sure, the Moroccan, Jordanian, and Emirati governments are making some very worthwhile efforts in this area, and there is nothing wrong with that. More is needed, however.
Washington should also look to expand the scope of nongovernmental messaging platforms and organizations in the Middle East, with the goal of building sustainable messaging efforts against Salafi jihadists. Last month, for example, an IS "Wilayah Nineveh" video launched as part of a coordinated campaign on North Africa spent almost as much time attacking Sufi Muslims and liberals as it did criticizing political authorities. The Salafi "sea" from which IS rises should not be ignored -- encouraging regional partners to push back against the political and societal discourse that sets the stage for violence is good policy.
Finally, it must be remembered that the Islamic State is only one part of a larger ideological trend that is inimical to U.S. values and foreign policy interests. The petri dish where it and al-Qaeda evolved was not created overnight, and the political, military, and ideological factors that led to their rise will not be easily reversed. Salafi jihadism needs to be fought on every front, and there seems to be a slow coalescing of critical mass against it; for example, witness the Marrakesh Declaration that emerged from a recent conference on "Religious Minorities in Muslim Lands," jointly convened by the Moroccan government and the UAE-based "Forum for Promoting Peace in Muslim Societies." Yet the jury is still out on whether these efforts are too cosmetic, superficial, or esoteric. The challenge is to translate understanding and alarm into substantive policies and projects that are as self-sustaining and nimble as IS has proven to be.
**Alberto Fernandez is vice president of the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) and former State Department coordinator of the Center for Strategic Counterterrorism Communications.

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