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Bible Quotations For Today
For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12/33-40: "Sell your possessions, and give alms. Make purses for yourselves that do not wear out, an unfailing treasure in heaven, where no thief comes near and no moth destroys. For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also. ‘Be dressed for action and have your lamps lit; be like those who are waiting for their master to return from the wedding banquet, so that they may open the door for him as soon as he comes and knocks. Blessed are those slaves whom the master finds alert when he comes; truly I tell you, he will fasten his belt and have them sit down to eat, and he will come and serve them. If he comes during the middle of the night, or near dawn, and finds them so, blessed are those slaves. ‘But know this: if the owner of the house had known at what hour the thief was coming, he would not have let his house be broken into. You also must be ready, for the Son of Man is coming at an unexpected hour."

What you sow does not come to life unless it dies
First Letter to the Corinthians 15/35-44a: "Someone will ask, ‘How are the dead raised? With what kind of body do they come?’Fool! What you sow does not come to life unless it dies.And as for what you sow, you do not sow the body that is to be, but a bare seed, perhaps of wheat or of some other grain.But God gives it a body as he has chosen, and to each kind of seed its own body. Not all flesh is alike, but there is one flesh for human beings, another for animals, another for birds, and another for fish. There are both heavenly bodies and earthly bodies, but the glory of the heavenly is one thing, and that of the earthly is another. There is one glory of the sun, and another glory of the moon, and another glory of the stars; indeed, star differs from star in glory. So it is with the resurrection of the dead. What is sown is perishable, what is raised is imperishable. It is sown in dishonour, it is raised in glory. It is sown in weakness, it is raised in power. It is sown a physical body, it is raised a spiritual body. If there is a physical body, there is also a spiritual body."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 05/16
Can Aoun avoid clashing with Hezbollah/Michael Young| The Daily Star/February 04/16
Iran won Lebanon/Hanin Ghaddar/February 05/16
Selfies in Syria: How one Iranian religious singer is showing his support for fighters/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/February 04/16
Egypt fills its prisons, but don't worry, it'll make more/Albaraa Abdullah/Al-Monitor/February 04/16
Obama's Israeli-Palestinian failure/Uri Savir/Al-Monitor/February 04/16
Will Saudi's cut to trade with Iran really matter/Alireza Ramezani/Al-Monitor/February 04/16
Tunnel arms race' heating up/Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/February 04/16
The states remain despite terrorism/Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 04/16
Syria, Geneva, London – three parallel universes/Chris Doyle/Al Arabiya/February 04/16
34 Years on Hama massacre: Assad doctrine has not changed/Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/February 04/16
Education funding for Syrian refugees must go beyond school gates/Adrian Chadwick/Al Arabiya/February 04/16
Swiss cheese/Michael Young/Now Lebanon/February 05/16
War is not a picnic/Hassan Al Mustafa/Al Arabiya/February 04/16
Alawi Sect Showing Signs Of Opposition To Assad Regime/By: M. Terdiman/MEMRI/February 04/16

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on February 05/16
Can Aoun avoid clashing with Hezbollah?
Iran won Lebanon
U.N. envoy: Don't take Lebanon's stability for granted
Salam from Syria Donors Conference: We Reject Permanent Residence of Refugees in Lebanon
Aoun: Honesty Governs Relation with Hizbullah, LF Agreement Not against Anyone
Zoaiter Denies Favoritism, Says he Doesn't Differentiate between Muslims and Christians
Source: Army's Preemptive Attack Thwarted Terrorist Plot in Arsal
Syrian Shot Dead near Army Air Base after Failing to Stop at Checkpoint
Fayad Freed after Prague Decides Not to Extradite Him to U.S.
Dangerous Terror Cell' Busted in Tripoli as 5 Suspects Held in Akkar, Bekaa
Military Judge Indicts 6 Suspected Terrorists
Syria Regime, Hizbullah Enter Besieged Villages after Aleppo Advance
Syrian Family Travels from Lebanon to Italy in 1st Humanitarian Airlift

Can Aoun avoid clashing with Hezbollah?
Michael Young| The Daily Star/February 04/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/02/03/michael-young-can-aoun-avoid-clashing-with-hezbollah/
If there were doubts about Hezbollah’s true intentions with regard to Michel Aoun, they were dispelled last week by Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah in his speech on the presidency. When one went to the heart of what Nasrallah said, the message was clear: We support Aoun but will not ensure that he has a majority in Parliament. What is remarkable is that some Aounists, still blinded by their association with Hezbollah, failed to see this. They refused to grasp that on the cusp of an Aoun victory, Hezbollah effectively said that Aoun was on his own – even if the party cushioned the blow with empty words about its “ethical” backing for the general.
At the center of the conundrum for Aoun is Nabih Berri. If Hezbollah persuades its allies and Berri to go along with Aoun’s election, something the speaker of Parliament dreads, the general will enjoy an absolute majority in a second round of elections. More important, Berri’s declaring for Aoun would oblige Sleiman Frangieh to withdraw from the race, because he does not enjoy a two-thirds majority allowing him to be elected in the first round. Frangieh’s pulling out would also set in motion dynamics favoring Aoun, allowing those who supported a Frangieh candidacy to shift their votes elsewhere. Yet as Nasrallah said, Hezbollah will not push its allies to vote in a particular way, effectively blocking Aoun’s election. And unless Aoun is guaranteed of winning the presidency, his bloc will continue to boycott electoral sessions in Parliament, which means Lebanon remains without a president.
An election would serve to fill the political vacuum, which Hezbollah evidently doesn’t want. In other words the party that has extended the presidential void in Lebanon for almost two years in an effort to bring Michel Aoun to office, will now do nothing to guarantee that outcome by convincing its allies to vote for Aoun. How odd that Hezbollah now says it will not force Berri to vote for Aoun, when the party forced Berri to boycott Parliament in order, allegedly, to ensure Aoun’s election.
This confirms Samir Geagea’s prediction that Hezbollah would not back Aoun, even after the Lebanese Forces did so. But can things remain as they are? Aoun has never hesitated to rock the boat in pursuit of his presidential ambitions, and unlike his undiscerning followers he must be angry that Hezbollah will not help him. What are Aoun’s options? He is unlikely to threaten a divorce from Hezbollah at this stage, when all it would serve is to perpetuate the deadlock. Rather, the general will, first, have to take the measure of what his eventual electors want, above all Berri. The speaker understandably is worried that Aoun might back an alternative for the speakership of Parliament, and wants guarantees on that front. Berri has a list of other demands as well, something no less true of Hezbollah, which was doubtless displeased with the list of conditions that Aoun agreed with Geagea when the Aounists and Lebanese Forces reached their understanding last year. Above all, the party seeks assurances that Aoun will legitimize their autonomous weapons arsenal and “resistance role” if elected.
This process could take several weeks, and Aoun has reportedly said to people that he does not expect his election to take place before March. That may be optimistic, but it indicates that the general sees the interval ahead as a time for bargaining. During this period both Aoun and Geagea will raise the heat by exploiting Christian solidarity and frustration. They will affirm that Lebanon’s Muslim leaders and parties are happy only when the Maronites are divided, as it allows them to pursue their own political agendas. The presidential void, they will argue, is undermining Maronite interests amid indifference from the Muslims. Now that the leading Maronite parties have united around Aoun, there is no excuse for blocking an election, not when Aoun arguably enjoys the backing of most Christians.
That will be their contention, more or less. Already the Aounists are turning their guns on Berri and his ministers. In a statement by the Change and Reform bloc on Tuesday, the bloc accused the speaker and his ministers of marginalizing Christians in appointments at the Finance Ministry and the General Directorate of State Security. They warned that popular protests might ensue. Can the tactic work? If it is part of a bargaining game, perhaps portraying Berri as a sectarian leader who is out to sideline the Christians might soften him up. But Aoun knows two things: in the best of circumstances Berri will not budge unless he gets what he wants, and more; and for now Hezbollah will not make him budge. That is why the key to cutting the Gordian knot remains Hezbollah.
If Aoun sees that all avenues to the presidency are closed, it is hardly implausible that he will turn to his relationship with Hezbollah and put that on the line. Either the party will have to support him without reserve, or else the relationship between the Aounists and Hezbollah will suffer, Aoun could say. This is not the general’s preference, but it will be his final bullet, at a time when he believes that Hezbollah needs a Christian partner in Lebanon to take advantage of the fact that the political balance in the region is turning to its advantage. Only such a partner would allow the party to better anchor its gains in the Lebanese political system. Is this a certitude? Aoun will have to calculate the costs and benefits. But Hezbollah’s primary importance to the general was always its ability to help bring him to Baabda. If it refuses to do so, Aoun will have to wonder what he gained from opposing the majority all these years and isolating himself politically. Only by showing Hezbollah what it risks losing by abandoning him might Aoun still have a chance of finally winning the ultimate prize.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Iran won Lebanon
Hanin Ghaddar/February 05/16
The arms are above everyone and everything
Hezbollah’s chief Hassan Nasrallah declared his victory in Lebanon in his last speech and he’s right. Hezbollah won Lebanon and no one seems to care. March 14 dissolved long before its leaders nominated March 8 figures for presidency. Political opponents to the Party of God and its hegemony over Lebanon lost the battle a long time ago, when they compromised values for political gains. The state is increasingly weakened by the void in its institutions, corruption of its spearheads, and petty individual interests. Regional powers are busy in Syria and Yemen while the international community seems to have given up on Lebanon. As long as Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria is not challenged by the international community, it means only one thing for Lebanon; that Iran has been given a free hand to take over. The release of a criminal and terrorist of Michel Samaha’s caliber is nothing but a sign of who runs the show, and how weak we are to even protest it. Iran won Lebanon! And Iran can do anything it wants in Lebanon without any political opposition or challenges. And now Iran can focus to win what it needs in Syria, while everyone is busy making business deals with the “new Iran.” Lebanon, on the other hand, is going to pay a very high price for all these deals and compromises, more so as Iran, Russia and the Assad regime are scoring more gains in Syria.
Iran’s plan for Lebanon
To protect Hezbollah’s arms, Iran will do anything; whatever it takes and no matter how many people and lives are sacrificed. The arms are above all. The sacredness of these arms was justified by fighting Israeli aggression and occupation, and is justified today by fighting terrorism and takfiris. However, the real purpose and ultimate goal of Hezbollah’s arms is their mere existence. Hezbollah’s arms are a symbol of its power and authority over Lebanon and the Lebanese. So without them, Hezbollah has nothing, and Iran will lose influence in Lebanon and the region. Even if they’re not in use, arms are the backbone of this power. With the changing dynamics in the region, Iran’s deal with the West and the escalating Sunni-Shiite conflict in the region, Hezbollah wants to make sure nothing changes the status quo of its arsenal. Today, there is no one to challenge Hezbollah’s arms in Lebanon. To guarantee that for the longest time possible, Hezbollah will need more void and the disintegration of state institutions, which will intensify and become worse.
The Sunni community will have to remain headless. Former PM Saad Hariri has been out of the country for years, and there’s no one else to challenge his popularity yet. The Saudi money stopped coming to the Sunni community, through Hariri’s institutions, as it used to, which left them in urgent need of leadership and financial support. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is taking advantage of the situation by recruiting more Sunnis into the Resistance Brigade [Saraya al-Moqawama]. For a mere $400 a month, Sunnis are joining the Brigade – not to fight in Syria – but only to receive training and stay on hold until further notice.
This “further notice” is probably a local moment, similar to the May 7 events of 2008, or the Black Shirts of 2010. “What the Sunnis are used for, however, are reconnaissance missions in Syria, as they have access to rebel areas and make good informants,” a Sunni activist in the Bekaa told NOW a few months ago. “They offer some money, but more than that, they offer weapons, and, most of all, protection and the illusion that they are powerful.”
In any case, Hezbollah prefers this community to stay leaderless because it simply gives them more power and sway over Lebanon, its state, and its communities. But the most significant part of this plan is the Shiites in Lebanon. They are the ones providing fighters for the war and protecting the party and its weapons. The supporters will die for Hezbollah and Iran, but they won’t die for Lebanon. This loyalty and dedication needs to endure. Without it, Hezbollah loses a lot, but it requires a lot as well; that is, money, for services, media, and compensations. The money is coming, despite the recent US sanctions. But the challenges are elsewhere.
Containing discontent
Hezbollah’s support-base is increasingly complaining. It started with the parents of the kids who died fighting in Syria, but it seems even the fighters themselves are complaining now. Sources in the southern suburbs tell NOW that the increasing number of young men coming back in coffins – and sometimes not even coming back – without any benefit or victory felt, has intensified discontent. “When Hezbollah was resisting Israeli occupation, its victories were felt by the people. For example, they could go back to their occupied towns and villages in the South. Today, their victories have no practical repercussion on the community, but their losses do; it the death of our children, brothers and fathers,” she said. On a different level, many businessmen in Lebanon are panicking after the US Treasury sanctions started targeting more people. Hezbollah’s economic support-base has never been targeted as it is today. Any businessman dealing with any of Hezbollah’s institutions is today reconsidering their deals – even if it is the selling of office supplies or catering services. This is not going to hurt Hezbollah significantly, but it will certainly increase the level of discontent by a community suffering more and more of isolation.
Hezbollah is trying to fight this discontent by increasing the funding for propaganda and services. For example, Iran is trying to take advantage of the severe financial crisis in Lebanon’s media sector - mainly due to the ceasing of Saudi funding for Lebanon’s media – to increase its support to its own media.
For instance, recent reports show that Iran is spending millions of US dollars on media institutions, mostly located around the Iranian embassy in Beirut. Houthis, Iraqis and Hezbollah share a lot of these spaces and editorial operations. While Lebanese media – newspapers and TV channels – are closing or downsizing, Iranian-funded media outlets are prospering, expanding and hiring more than ever. The whole point is to expand the propaganda rhetoric in order to contain the increasing discontent. Despite the challenges, the Party of God is steadily moving to take whatever is left of Lebanon. If no one stops it, Lebanon will be a state-within-Hezbollah’s-state, not the other way around. And we are not far from it.
**Hanin Ghaddar is the managing editor of NOW and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council. She tweets @haningdr.

U.N. envoy: Don't take Lebanon's stability for granted
Reuters, Beirut Thursday, 4 February 2016/Lebanon has weathered five years of Middle Eastern turmoil remarkably well but its stability should not be taken for granted and it needs long-term financial help to cope with a huge number of Syrian refugees, a senior U.N. official said. U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Sigrid Kaag, speaking before a Syria donors’ conference in London, said on Wednesday that the refugee crisis must be recognized as long-term and the response must move beyond meeting humanitarian needs. “Our big message is really the need for sustainable, long-term predictable financing, and very much a focus on not only humanitarian but also what we call stabilization support ... job creation,” Kaag told Reuters. With many Syrian children stuck indefinitely in refugee camps, education is also a major priority. “The first response of humanitarians is always protect and save lives. But we are now looking at a generation that needs to go to school,” she said in an interview. Lebanon, a neighbor of Syria with its own history of civil conflict, is hosting more than a million registered Syrian refugees, equal to a quarter of its population. Their arrival has been a huge strain on a tiny country with limited resources whose political stability hinges on a delicate sectarian balance. Rival Lebanese fought a civil war in the 1970s and 1980s, and conflict flared again as recently as 2008, albeit briefly.While Lebanon has avoided its own conflict since the start of the Syrian war, its politicians are struggling to agree on anything. That has left the government largely paralyzed and the country without a president. “Let’s really keep our eye on the ball on Lebanon, let’s support Lebanon, let’s be active for Lebanon, but Lebanon needs to be in the driver’s seat,” Kaag said. With a return of refugees to Syria unlikely for some time, Kaag said “we need to really look at the fragility and stability of Lebanon in holistic manner”. “There’s politics, there’s security, and the socio-economic development side of Lebanon should really be propped up.”
“Big step forward”
The London donors’ conference builds on previous such meetings in Kuwait. U.N. agencies are appealing for a total of $7.73 billion to cope with Syria’s needs this year. The Lebanese government is expected to seek donor support for plans including infrastructure investment that will create jobs, and funds to support its public schools that are taking in Syrian children. “As the economy has suffered from the crisis, unemployment has risen ... particularly in poorer areas and amongst the young people, so the debate on employment has always been very sensitive, and there was a reluctance to address it,” Kaag said.
She acknowledged the risk of ill-feeling if Syrian refugees compete with Lebanese people for scarce jobs. Proposals from the Lebanese government would in any case allow them to work only in labor-intensive sectors such as construction and agriculture. “But now I think six years into the crisis there is a realization that there is a large potential workforce. It may benefit the economy and therefore Lebanon, but we need to look at job creation for Lebanese alongside vulnerable refugees.”Kaag said while the debate was still in progress, an important program allowing for the temporary employment of Syrians had been tabled for the London conference. The willingness to discuss the idea marked “a big step forward”, she said, though it was still at the design stage. Lebanese Education Minister Elias Bou Saab told Reuters the government would seek grants of $4.9 billion covering education needs in addition to development and investment projects. That could result in employment for Syrians in areas where refugees were already employed, he said, highlighting the agricultural sector.But the hamstrung government still has to deliver. Kaag said she hoped that “post-London, and with new plans in mind, that the government will really rally around implementation, and making sure it delivers for Lebanon”.

Salam from Syria Donors Conference: We Reject Permanent Residence of Refugees in Lebanon
Naharnet/February 04/16/Prime Minister Tammam Salam warned on Thursday that Lebanon will “soon be unable to contain” the burden of Syrian refugees, demanding that improvements be made to the mechanism in which aid is made to the displaced.He said: “We cannot accept the permanent residence of refugees in Lebanon and we demand that pledges be translated to action.” He made his remarks during a speech at the donors conference on Syria held in London. “A contract is needed to translate promises into action,” he demanded, while highlighting the need for work opportunities that would improve the conditions of Lebanese and Syrians alike. “Lebanon is unable and cannot be expected to alone support the burden of the refugees,” Salam declared. This donors conference should mark a shift in how the issue of the refugees is addressed. “Lebanon believes that the success of this conference hinges on the implementation of a number of mutual commitments between the Lebanese government and international partners,” he explained. “Let us carefully weigh the trade off. This is not a time for smart negotiations, but it is a time for empathy,” he stated. “This is a time for vision and courage,” said the premier. “The world should realize that a real danger lies in a new wave of refugees, which will go beyond the neighboring countries,” Salam noted. “The only solution to the Syrian crisis should be political and the only solution to the refugee tragedy lies in their return to their homeland,” he stressed. Salam held talks on the margins of the conference with British PM David Cameron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu. The Syrian conflict, which erupted in 2011, has forced 4.6 million Syrians to seek refuge in nearby countries -- Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq and Egypt -- while hundreds of thousands have journeyed to Europe in the region's biggest migration crisis since World War II. Lebanon alone supports around 1.5 million refugees.

Aoun: Honesty Governs Relation with Hizbullah, LF Agreement Not against Anyone
Naharnet/February 04/16/Free Patriotic Movement founder MP Michel Aoun emphasized Thursday that the FPM's relation with Hizbullah is characterized by honesty and stressed that the recent rapprochement with the Lebanese Forces is “not targeted against anyone.”
“We always share the same vision regarding the urgent issues and our agreement with Hizbullah is based on grand and ethical ideas,” Aoun told Hizbullah's al-Manar TV in an interview marking ten years since Hizbullah and the FPM signed their famous Memorandum of Understanding. “Our relation with Hizbullah is characterized by honesty, respect of vows and ethical behavior,” Aoun added. He noted, however, that the MoU's fourth article that tackles “building the state” is yet to be implemented, adding that that must happen through state institutions. Highlighting his strong “personal friendship” with Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Aoun promised Hizbullah's leader that the FPM will “honor its pledges” regarding “the fight against terrorism and Israel.”Turning to the FPM's recent rapprochement with its long-time Christian rival the Lebanese Forces, Aoun emphasized that “the agreement with the LF does not harm anyone and is not targeted against anyone.”In a surprise development, LF leader Samir Geagea endorsed Aoun's presidential bid during a landmark ceremony in Maarab last month. The declaration followed months of rapprochement talks between the two parties and a so-called Declaration of Intent joint paper. Some observers have suggested that Geagea's move came in response to al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri's proposal to nominate Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency although the LF chief has denied this. Geagea said the endorsement was aimed at "emerging from where we are now to a safer position," in reference to the country's lengthy presidential void.

Zoaiter Denies Favoritism, Says he Doesn't Differentiate between Muslims and Christians
Naharnet/February 04/16/Public Works Minister Ghazi Zoaiter denied on Thursday claims that his ministry has been carrying out more development projects in areas with a Muslim population than in Christian regions. “No one has the right to resort to sectarian incitement to make certain gains,” he said at a press conference he held at his office. Zoaiter claimed that his ministry had carried out projects across Lebanon, including Dinniyeh where the population is mostly Sunni and the Christian eastern town of Zahle. “I don't differentiate between Muslims and Christians,” said Zoaiter, who is a Shiite and represents Speaker Nabih Berri's Amal Movement in the cabinet, “It is our duty to carry out projects without any differentiation,” he added. “Let those accusing us of being sectarian dare to give us facts about the division of posts (among different confessions) at their ministries,” Zoaiter stressed. His press conference came after he received a letter from Kataeb Party's Labor Minister Sejaan Qazzi, a Christian, claiming injustice in projects implemented in areas of Christian dominance. On Wednesday, another minister representing Berri's Amal movement, Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil, held a similar press conference to defend a decision to allocate a senior post at the ministry's taxpayers department that was held by Bassema Antonios, a Christian, to Shiite Muslim employee Mohammed Suleiman.
The finance ministry has not witnessed any new appointments but rather a periodic reshuffle of incumbent employees, he said.

Source: Army's Preemptive Attack Thwarted Terrorist Plot in Arsal
Naharnet/February 04/16/A preemptive attack carried out by the Lebanese army on militants taking the Lebanese-Syrian border as a refuge was aimed at thwarting a terrorist plot, a security source said Thursday. On Wednesday, the army killed six Islamic State militants and arrested 16 others in its biggest operation yet against the extremist group on the outskirts of the northeastern border town of Arsal. The arrested suspects have told investigators that the terrorists were plotting an attack on the army similar to the 2014 assault that left scores of policemen and troops dead and injured. Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) said on Thursday that Islamic State militant Khaled Mohammed al-Salem aka al-Hout has succumbed to his wounds in a hospital in the Bekaa valley after being wounded in the clashes with the army. In the August 2014 attack, the IS and al-Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front also took several servicemen hostage. Al-Nusra released the captives late last year. The source told As Safir daily that more than 15 terrorists had gathered in the Wadi al-Araneb area of Arsal to attack army posts by carrying out suicide attacks and taking more hostages. The source said there had been a clear attempt by the terrorists to change the balance of power in the region and impose a new status quo in Arsal. Wednesday's developments came several days after the IS engaged in clashes with al-Nusra Front on Arsal's outskirts and took over several of the groups positions.

Syrian Shot Dead near Army Air Base after Failing to Stop at Checkpoint
Naharnet/February 04/16/A Syrian motorcyclist was shot dead Thursday near an army air base in the North after failing to stop at a checkpoint, state-run National News Agency reported. “Army troops opened fire from their checkpoint near the Qlayaat Air Base at a motorcyclist who did not heed their repeated calls for him to stop,” NNA said. The man, who turned out to be Syrian, was critically wounded in the incident before he succumbed to his injuries at the al-Kheir Hospital in the northern town of Minieh, the agency added.

Fayad Freed after Prague Decides Not to Extradite Him to U.S.
Naharnet/February 04/16/The Czech Republic's justice minister has decided that a Lebanese national cannot be extradited to the United States to face weapons charges, a Prague official said on Thursday. Prague's Municipal Court allowed the extradition in September but the minister, Robert Pelikan, has the final say and said "no" Thursday. The Lebanese suspect, Ali Taan Fayad, and two citizens of Ivory Coast were arrested in Prague 2014 while allegedly trying to sell weapons to undercover U.S. law enforcement agents posing as leftist rebels from Colombia's FARC organization. Court spokeswoman Marketa Puci said Fayad and an Ivory Coast man were released following the minister's decision. The announcement came hours after five Czechs who went missing in Lebanon in July boarded a flight in Beirut back to their homeland. Czech officials declined to comment Thursday on media speculation that Fayad was exchanged for the Czechs.The Czech men were freed late Monday and handed over to Lebanon's General Security agency. Their release appeared to be tied to Fayad's detention in Prague, with a Lebanese security official telling AFP: "The release of the five Czechs... is the final part of an exchange deal, (that) includes the release of the Lebanese detainee in Prague, Ali Taan Fayad."Another Lebanese security source, also speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity, confirmed the deal. The five Czechs and their local driver -- Fayad's brother -- disappeared in mid-July. Their car was found later in the Kefraya region of eastern Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. Fayad's defense lawyer was also among the Czech group that was abducted in Lebanon.

Dangerous Terror Cell' Busted in Tripoli as 5 Suspects Held in Akkar, Bekaa
Naharnet/February 04/16/A “dangerous terrorist cell” was arrested Thursday in the northern city of Tripoli, Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) reported. “The army's Strike Force has managed to capture a group of individuals in the Tripoli area of al-Dam wal Farz after a surveillance operations,” VDL said. “A patrol coming from Beirut had detected the five-member group and chased their small van,” the radio station added. It said the group was eventually apprehended “simultaneously with the arrest of two suspects in the Akkar town of Mashta Hassan.” State-run National News Agency said an army force raided several houses in Mashta Hassan and arrested Mazen K. and Samer K. “on suspicion of belonging to militant groups.”According to VDL, the group is accused of “communicating with a terror group operating outside Lebanon and facilitating its activities inside Lebanon.”Separately, the State Security directorate arrested the Syrians Khaled Amer and Ahmed al-Kattoun in the northeastern border area of Masharii al-Qaa on charges of “belonging to a militant group and taking part in the Qalamoun and Arsal battles.”Both men are also Lebanese citizens according to NNA. Meanwhile, a patrol from the Internal Security Forces Intelligence Branch arrested another Syrian outside the district building in the Bekaa town of Hermel “on suspicion of belonging to terrorist groups.”

Military Judge Indicts 6 Suspected Terrorists
Naharnet/February 04/16/Military Examining Magistrate Judge Fadi Sawan issued on Thursday an indictment against a Syrian and five Lebanese nationals suspected of belonging to a terrorist organization, the state-run National News Agency reported.
NNA said that Sawan indicted the six suspects, who are in custody, on charges of “belonging to an armed terrorist group for the purpose of carrying out terrorist activities and killing soldiers.”The judge also charged them with “the attempted murder of troops and the possession of arms and explosives,” said the agency. The suspects were referred to the permanent Military Court for trial, it added.

Syria Regime, Hizbullah Enter Besieged Villages after Aleppo Advance
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 04/16/Syrian government troops, backed by Hizbullah fighters, moved closer on Thursday to encircling rebels in the country's second city Aleppo, threatening a total siege after cutting their main supply line. Backed by a wave of Russian air strikes, regime forces have made key advances against rebel positions on the road to Aleppo and the offensive has been blamed for causing the suspension of peace talks this week in Geneva.The advance -- which has seen the most significant government victories since staunch ally Russia launched air strikes last year -- brings government forces closer than ever to encircling rebels who have held the east of Aleppo city since mid-2012. Since it began Monday, the offensive has seen troops sever the main rebel supply route from Aleppo city to the Turkish border, allowing them to also end a long-running opposition siege on two Shiite towns on the same road, Nubol and Zahraa. Government soldiers and pro-regime militants arrived in the towns on Thursday morning to cheering crowds who threw rice and ululated, according to footage shown on state television. Syria's state news agency SANA reported "mass celebrations in the streets of Nubol and Zahraa welcoming army troops and celebrating the breaking of the siege."State television showed residents embracing arriving fighters, who fired into the air and waved the flags of the Syrian government and Lebanon's Hizbullah, a crucial regime ally. Hizbullah's Al-Manar television station also broadcast footage from inside the two towns, showing residents chanting slogans in support of President Bashar Assad and Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. The two towns, home to about 35,000 people before the war, had been besieged by rebels since 2012, and reaching them had long been a government goal.
But an even higher priority has been severing rebel supply routes into Aleppo city, which has been divided between opposition control in the east and government control in the west since shortly after fighting there began in mid-2012. Last February, government forces launched a similar offensive north of the city which stalled shortly after it began.
But this operation was backed by heavy air strikes from Russian forces, who intervened in the conflict to bolster Assad's government in late September. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitor, said Moscow's warplanes had launched hundreds of strikes since the offensive began. The group said some 100 rebel fighters had been killed in clashes and the strikes, along with 64 regime troops. The government advances leave the rebels in eastern Aleppo city surrounded from the south, east, and north, with only a single opening to the northwest leading to the neighboring opposition-held province of Idlib. A range of opposition groups are present in the region, including moderate rebels, Islamists and the Al-Qaida affiliate Al-Nusra Front. Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman said the opposition in Aleppo now risked being completely encircled. "They have lost their main supply route to the Turkish border; the only remaining route is long and complicated, and will be the regime's next target," he said. He said the government's ranks would be bolstered by some 5,000 pro-regime militants who had been trapped inside Nubol and Zahraa, while rebel forces were struggling to acquire ammunition and weapons. "The regime has managed to achieve in 72 hours what it failed to for the last three years," he said. "If the rebels lose this last route, it will be the beginning of the end for them in Aleppo, they will be under complete siege," he added. Aleppo was Syria's main economic hub before the conflict erupted in 2011 and securing the city would be an enormous victory for the regime. Analysts Faysal Itani and Hossam Abouzahr of the Atlantic Council said the advances were a "serious blow" to the rebels and showed how Russia's intervention had reversed the regime's fortunes. "In contrast with its position deteriorating as recently as five months ago, the regime is now well-placed to divide, isolate, and advance on the armed opposition in several key geographies," they wrote on the Council's website. Karim Bitar, analyst at the Paris-based Institute of International and Strategic Relations, also described the advances as "significant breakthroughs" for the regime. "It seems to be finalizing the consolidation phase that started with Russia's intervention," he told AFP. The regime's control of areas of Syria it considers strategically useful "is no longer under direct threat," he added.

Syrian Family Travels from Lebanon to Italy in 1st Humanitarian Airlift
Associated Press/Naharnet/February 04/16/A 7-year-old Syrian girl suffering from a rare form of cancer arrived in Italy on Thursday, the first of an estimated 1,000 refugees who are being brought here on humanitarian grounds in a pilot project aimed at dissuading people from embarking on deadly sea crossings.Little Falak al Hourani, her parents and 6-year-old brother landed on a commercial flight at Rome's Leonardo Da Vinci airport thanks to the "humanitarian corridor" project launched by the Rome-based Catholic Sant'Egidio Community and the Federation of Protestant Churches in Italy. The two groups lobbied the Italian government to grant 1,000 humanitarian visas for particularly vulnerable refugees in camps in Lebanon, Morocco and Ethiopia. They put up the estimated 1.3 million euros ($1.4 million) to process their visas, transport them to Italy and get them resettled here while their asylum applications are processed. The Al Hourani family fled their home in Homs, Syria nearly three years ago and settled in Tripoli, in northern Lebanon. Falak suffers from retinoblastoma, a rare tumor affecting the retina, and had one eye removed at the American University of Beirut Medical Center. Now she needs chemotherapy, Sant'Egidio officials said. On the eve of their departure, Falak's mother, Yasmine, said she was grateful for the chance to get her daughter the treatment she needs. "There is a possibility that the swelling may return to the other eye, and if it does they would need also to take it out," she told The Associated Press at their temporary home in Tripoli. "Here there is no treatment for the eye veins."Falak is expected to be treated at the Vatican-owned Bambino Gesu hospital in Rome. "I am very very happy, very happy that we are going to Italy," she said. "And I thank them a lot for helping us and hope they will continue the treatment for her there." The U.N. refugee agency has welcomed the ecumenical airlift initiative, one of many types of private sponsorships that are enabling particularly vulnerable or needy refugees to reach safety and start new lives in third countries. The U.N. has long called for European countries, in particular, to facilitate legal immigration channels to discourage would-be refugees from turning to smugglers to get them to Europe. So far, organizers say they have some 84 candidates to be airlifted out of Lebanon. While the organizers of the initiative are Christian, the candidates for transfer include both Christians and Muslims, organizers said. Once in Italy, the refugees will begin the asylum process and be provided with housing, health care, educational and vocational services.

HNC won't attend Syria talks unless change on ground
Reuters, Geneva Thursday, 4 February 2016/The Syrian opposition's High Negotiations Committee (HNC) will not return to peace talks in Geneva until there is a change on the ground, its chief coordinator said on Wednesday. "Mr De Mistura paused the process, I believe this is a chance for the international community to put pressure on the regime and its allies to make sure they implemented the humanitarian needs of the Syrian people through releasing detainees and lifting sieges on towns and stopping aerial attacks on towns," Riad Hijab told reporters. "The HNC delegation will leave Geneva tomorrow and will not return here unless we see something on the ground."Hijab also said there would be no ceasefire until a transition without President Bashar al-Assad was in place.

World leaders react to the halt of Syria peace talks
Staff writer Thursday, 4 February 2016/World leaders reacted on Thursday to the suspension of the Syria peace talks in Geneva, placing the blame on the intensified attacks by the Syrian army, backed by Russian airstrikes, on opposition-held areas.
Staffan de Mistura announced a three-week pause in the Geneva talks on Wednesday, the first attempt to negotiate an end to Syria’s war in two years, after Saudi-backed opposition delegation coordinator Riad Hijab said they would not negotiate unless the government stopped bombarding civilian areas, lift blockades on besieged towns and release detainees.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said on Thursday the Syrian government had refused to cooperate with the U.N. envoy at the talks and that this was to blame for their suspension. Speaking at a press conference in Riyadh Adel al-Jubeir said intensified Russian military operations in Syria were aimed at provoking the Syrian opposition.
United States U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said the Syrian government and Russia must halt attacks on civilians and allow unfettered humanitarian access throughout Syria. Kerry said December’s U.N. resolution on Syria, supported by Russia, was clear. Aid agencies needed to be allowed to reach those in need and the shelling of civilian targets had to stop.
United Nations
Syrian peace talks have been undermined by a sudden increase in aerial bombing and military activity in the country, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon said in London on Thursday, urging a return to the negotiating table. “It is deeply disturbing that the initial steps of the talks have been undermined by the continuous lack of sufficient humanitarian access, and by a sudden increase in aerial bombing and military activities within Syria,” Ban told a donor conference.
Turkey
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said the Syrian peace talks were pointless while President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and Russia continued their attacks in the country.
“Russia continues to kill people in Syria. Could there be such a peace gathering? Could there be such peace talks?” Erdogan said in a speech in Peru. “In an environment where children are still being killed, such attempts do not have any function apart from making things easier for the tyrant,” he added. “They always convene, get together, eat, drink and then leave. Now they are giving a date for end-February. Let’s watch. You will see that once it is Feb. 28 they will postpone again,” he said at a university in Lima, the Peruvian capital. UK British Prime Minister David Cameron Thursday urged a political transition in Syria “however difficult” it might prove to be. “The long-term solution to the crisis in Syria can only be reached with a political transition and we must continue to work towards that, however difficult it may be,” Cameron said.
Germany
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said all interested parties had a responsibility to agree a ceasefire in Syria. But she said the regime of President Bashar al-Assad is responsible above all,.
Russia
Russia said Thursday it regretted the suspension of the peace talks and said it hoped the negotiations would continue after the West accused Moscow of seeking a military solution to the war. “One can express regret in this regard but no one expected that everything will be simple and quick,” President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. He said the Kremlin hoped it would “soon” become clear when and how the talks would resume. “It is unlikely someone expected immediate results from the first round. This would probably be short-sighted,” Peskov said.
[Agencies]

Syrian army and allies break rebel siege of Shiite towns
Reuters, Beirut Thursday, 4 February 2016/The Syrian army and its allies have broken a three-year rebel siege of two Shi’ite towns in northwest Syria, government and rebel groups said on Wednesday, cutting off a main insurgent route to nearby Turkey. The two towns of Nubul and Zahraa, with an estimated 60,000 population, are connected to the border by areas under the control of Kurdish militias that provided them some access. Al Manar, television channel of Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group, joined Syria’s army and state media in reporting the breakthrough, which it said came after the army moved in from towns secured in a recent offensive in northern Aleppo province. A Levant Front rebel said the siege was broken “after three days of legendary resistance by the revolutionaries facing the Russian military machine, an after more than 500 raids by Russian air planes”. “Less than 3 km separate the regime from cutting all routes to opposition-held Aleppo,” said Rami Abdulrahman, head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said. “It did in three days what it failed to do in 3-1/2 years.” Also on Wednesday, U.N.-mediated talks in Geneva to end the war in Syria were paused until Feb. 25. U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura said they had not failed but urgently needed help from international backers led by the United States and Russia. The Syrian government and its allies were meanwhile pressing offensives against rebels south of Aleppo, once Syria’s biggest city and commercial center, and against Islamic State to the east of the city split between government and rebel control. Alongside heavy Russian aerial support, the advances have been made possible by ground troops from Lebanon’s Shi’ite Hezbollah movement and Iranian-backed militias that support President Bashar al-Assad’s government. The Russia air strikes that began in September tilted the war in Assad’s favor after setbacks earlier in 2015 brought rebel groups close to the coastal heartland of his Alawite sect . “The Syrian army and its allies have totally broken the siege on Nubul and Zahraa,” a senior army official told Reuters, referring to Hezbollah fighters and other militias fighting alongside government forces. Al Manar TV said pro-government militias from the besieged towns were able to link up with advancing Syrian army troops after the town of Maarsteh al Khan fell to them. Breaking the siege opens a direct route for the Syrian army to Kurdish-controlled Afrin and brings them closer to areas run by Turkish-backed insurgents near the Turkish border. Defense strategists say the two heavily garrisoned towns could become a launching pad for the Syrian army and its allies for wider territorial gains in northern Aleppo province and to tighten the encirclement of the rebel-held part of Aleppo city. “Ending the siege means the supply route to terrorists from Turkey to Aleppo has been severed,” a Syrian military source said.

Britain pledges extra $1.75 bln for Syria before donor conference
Reuters, London Thursday, 4 February 2016/Britain pledged on Thursday to spend an additional 1.2 billion pounds ($1.75 billion) on aid for Syrians by 2020, seeking to build momentum for a donor conference that the United Nations hopes will raise more than $7 billion for this year alone. With Syria’s five-year-old civil war raging and U.N.-mediated peace talks in Geneva halted after just a few days amid acrimony between government and opposition negotiators, the one-day London conference will try to tackle dire humanitarian needs. The war has killed an estimated 250,000 people and driven millions from their homes, with 6 million Syrians displaced within the country and more than 4 million others having left for Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and beyond. U.N. agencies are appealing for $7.73 billion to cope with the disaster this year, with a further $1.2 billion needed to fund national response plans by countries in the region. For European nations, improving the humanitarian situation in Syria and neighboring countries is seen as critical to reduce incentives for Syrians to travel to Europe, where a huge refugee crisis has put many countries under severe strain. “We can provide the sense of hope needed to stop people thinking they have no option but to risk their lives on a dangerous journey to Europe,” British Prime Minister David Cameron said in a statement announcing the new pledge.

EU agrees to fund Turkey to curb refugee crisis
Reuters, Brussels Thursday, 4 February 2016/European Union countries on Wednesday approved a 3 billion euro ($3.32 billion) fund for Turkey to improve living conditions for refugees there in exchange for Ankara ensuring fewer of them migrate on to Europe.
The EU is counting on the deal to lower the number of asylum seekers arriving in Europe after over a million streamed onto the continent in 2015, mainly by sea from Turkey, with figures indicating little sign of the flow ebbing so far this year. All 28 EU countries signed off on the proposal at a meeting in Brussels after Italy dropped its opposition to the plan, which was first agreed with Ankara in November.
Infographic: Migrants to the European Union
The bloc’s executive European Commission welcomed the decision on Turkey, currently home to an estimated 2.5 million refugees from the civil war in Syria next door. “Turkey now hosts one of the world’s largest refugee communities and has committed to significantly reducing the numbers of migrants crossing into the EU,” said Johannes Hahn, Commissioner for Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement. “The Facility for Refugees in Turkey will go straight to the refugees, providing them with education, health and food. The improvement of living conditions and the offering of a positive perspective will allow refugees to stay closer to their homes.” Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands, the current holder of the EU’s rotating presidency, said cooperation with Turkey on the migration crisis would also focus on targeting human traffickers who have arranged passage for many people. Europe is saddled with its worst migration crisis since World War Two. This has put strain on security and social systems in some EU states and resolving the problem has become an urgent policy priority for governments since it has fueled support for anti-foreigner groups, nationalists and populists. The crisis has bitterly divided EU members, as underlined by the fact that it took the 28 states more than two months to agree on the funding for the Turkey scheme even after their leaders approved setting it up back in November. The EU would provide 1 billion euros from its own budget, twice as much as initially offered. The rest is to come from 28 governments, with Germany being the top contributor at 427.5 million euros in 2016. Britain would follow with this year’s contribution of 327.6 million euros, France at 309.2 million euros, Italy at 224.9 million and Spain at 152.8 million, according to figures provided by the European Commission.
Italian reservations
The U.N. refugee agency UNHCR says more than 67,000 people arrived in Europe via the Mediterranean Sea so far this year, entering mainly through Greece, as well as Italy. Struggling with its own weak economy and large debt loads, Italy unblocked the funding only after Brussels said it would exempt contributions to the Turkey fund in calculating EU countries’ budget deficits. Under EU rules, countries must keep their budget shortfalls low or face disciplinary action. Italy wanted to exempt more migration-related spending from its budget gap and sought to agree a figure of about 3.2 billion euros this year. The European Commission refused to endorse a lump-sum up front and said that any such spending would be analyzed separately after it takes place. But on Wednesday, Rome secured an additional declaration before agreeing to the fund, in which it says it still “strongly expects” Brussels will exempt from its deficit figures “the full amount of costs” it incurred from 2011 when a conflict in its ex-colony Libya started and triggered higher migration to Italy. That potentially opens way for more back and forth between Brussels and Rome as the latter seeks to win more financial breathing space from the Commission.

40,000 Syrians flee regime’s Aleppo advance
AFP, Beirut Thursday, 4 February 2016/Nearly 40,000 Syrian civilians have fled a regime offensive near Aleppo, a monitor said Thursday, as Turkey warned it was bracing for a wave of tens of thousands of refugees. The exodus began on Monday after government forces began an operation that has severed the main rebel supply route into the city and broken an opposition siege on two regime-held towns, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. In London, where a donor conference for Syria is being held, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, whose government fiercely opposes the Syrian regime, also voiced concern at the huge numbers fleeing the army’s offensive. “Now 10,000 new refugees are waiting in front of the door of Kilis because of air bombardment and attacks against Aleppo,” he said, referring to a Turkish town on the Syrian border. He added that “60 to 70,000 people in the camps in north Aleppo are moving towards Turkey.” The Britain-based Observatory said the displaced had fled to different parts of Aleppo province, including the Kurdish town of Afrin, about 20 kilometres (12 miles) northwest of the area where the offensive has taken place. Others have taken refuge in the west of the province, with the towns hosting them overwhelmed and some forced to sleep in the open, said the monitor, which relies on a network of sources on the ground. Thousands more have fled to the northern town of Azaz or were sleeping in nearby fields along the border with Turkey, which is currently closed, Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman said. Syrian government forces and pro-regime fighters began a major offensive north of Aleppo city this week, backed by heavy Russian air strikes. The offensive has cut the main rebel supply line from the Turkish border to the opposition-held east of Aleppo city, and ended a siege on the towns of Nubol and Zahraa along the same route.

Militants kill Iranian general in Syria: Reports
By AFP Tehran, Iran Thursday, 4 February 2016/An Iranian general has been killed by militants in Syria, reports say, the latest high-profile casualty of Tehran’s efforts to prop up President Bashar al-Assad. Brigadier General Mohsen Ghajarian of the elite Revolutionary Guards was killed in the northern province of Aleppo, according to the Fars news agency, which is close to the Guards. He was advising pro-government forces in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group, it reported, without saying when he died. MizanOnline, a news agency linked to the judiciary, also reported his death. Fars said six Iranian “volunteers” had also been killed in Aleppo province, where the Syrian army, backed by Russian air strikes, this week launched a major offensive against rebels. Iran has provided military advisers to Assad’s army, as well as Iranian, Afghan, Iraqi and Pakistani “volunteers” to fight the rebels. The latest deaths bring to more than 100 the number of advisers and “volunteers” sent by Iran who have been killed in Syria since the beginning of October, according to an AFP tally. The casualties include General Hossein Hamedani, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war who died in October after having conducted 80 missions in Syria. Assad’s forces Thursday entered the villages of Nubol and Zahraa north of Aleppo city, after breaking a rebel siege there, prompting what Syrian state news agency SANA called “mass celebrations” in the streets. Iranian state media was also celebrating the victory with live reports from the battlefront. The conflict has killed more than 260,000 people and forced half the country’s people from their homes since March 2011.

Russia accuses Turkey of preparing to invade Syria
By AFP Moscow Thursday, 4 February 2016/Russia on Thursday accused Turkey of actively preparing to invade Syria, saying it had spotted troops and military equipment on the border with the war-torn country. “We have serious grounds to suspect Turkey is in intensive preparations for an armed invasion of the territory of a sovereign state - the Syrian Arab Republic,” the defense ministry said in a statement. Ties between Moscow, which supports the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Ankara, which is a staunch backer of the opposition, have been in tatters since Turkey shot down a Russian bomber on the Syrian border in November. Moscow’s claims came as Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, speaking at an international aid conference for Syria in London, implicitly accused Russia of “war crimes” in the country. Ankara said earlier Thursday that it had refused to allow a Russian reconnaissance plane to overfly its territory near Syria because of a disagreement over the flight plan. Russia said Turkey had not given Moscow any clear explanation for the decision. “We consider these Turkish actions to be a dangerous precedent and an attempt to conceal illegal military activities at the Syrian border,” the defense ministry said. “Moreover, we are recording more and more signs of covert preparations by the Turkish armed forces for active action on Syrian territory,” it said, adding that Russia has ramped up reconnaissance in the Middle East. “So if someone in Ankara believes that the cancellation of the flight by Russian monitors would allow (them) to hide something then this is unprofessional.” The defense ministry, citing reconnaissance data, said Turkey had recently expanded a parking lot for heavy-duty trucks on the border as well two smaller parking lots in rebel-controlled Syria. “Such sites are used to secure a quick movement of military columns containing ammunition and weapons to a theatre of operations as well as a fast transfer and evacuation of personnel,” it said. Moscow said it had recorded plenty of such examples at the Syrian-Turkish border “including the presence of troops and military equipment.” Russia also said it was surprised that representatives of Pentagon, NATO and human rights organizations in Syria did not issue any reaction. The Turkish foreign ministry declined to immediately comment on the Russian claim. U.N. special envoy Staffan de Mistura announced Wednesday the suspension of peace talks to end Syria’s civil war as the West accused Moscow of seeking a military solution to the war and refusing to halt its strikes. Following a request from Assad, Moscow launched a bombing campaign in Syria in September, saying it needed to target jihadists like the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group before they cross into Russia. The Syrian opposition has been outraged at Moscow's determination to press ahead with its bombing campaign during peace talks and accused Russia of targeting civilians.

Syrian family arrives in Italy in first humanitarian airlift
The Associated Press, Rome Thursday, 4 February 2016/A 7-year-old Syrian girl suffering from a rare form of eye cancer arrived in Italy on Thursday, the first of an estimated 1,000 refugees who are being brought here on humanitarian grounds in a pilot project aimed at dissuading people from embarking on deadly sea crossings. Little Falak al Hourani, her parents and 6-year-old brother Hussein landed on a commercial flight at Rome’s Leonardo Da Vinci airport thanks to the “humanitarian corridor” project launched by the Rome-based Catholic Sant’Egidio Community and the Federation of Protestant Churches in Italy. The two groups lobbied the Italian government to grant 1,000 humanitarian visas for particularly vulnerable refugees in camps in Lebanon, Morocco and Ethiopia. They put up the estimated 1.3 million euros ($1.4 million) to process their visas, transport them to Italy and get them resettled here while their asylum applications are processed. The al Hourani family fled their home in Homs, Syria, nearly three years ago and settled in Tripoli, in northern Lebanon. Falak suffers from retinoblastoma, a rare tumor affecting the retina, and had one eye removed at the American hospital in Beirut. Now she needs chemotherapy, Sant’Egidio officials said. As little Hussein hid behind his teddy bear, Falak stood quietly and smiled as her mother, Jasmine, tried out the few words in Italian that she has learned, counting to four and singing a song. The family applied for asylum as soon as they landed. On the eve of their departure, the mother said she was grateful for the chance to get her daughter the treatment she needs. “There is a possibility that the swelling may return to the other eye, and if it does they would need also to take it out,” she told The Associated Press at their temporary home in Tripoli. “Here there is no treatment for the eye veins.” Falak is expected to be treated at the Vatican-owned Bambino Gesu hospital in Rome. “I am very, very happy, very happy that we are going to Italy,” her mother said. “And I thank them a lot for helping us and hope they will continue the treatment for her there.” The U.N. refugee agency has welcomed the ecumenical airlift initiative, one of many types of private sponsorships that are enabling particularly vulnerable or needy refugees to reach safety and start new lives in third countries. The U.N. has long called for European countries, in particular, to facilitate legal immigration channels to discourage would-be refugees from turning to smugglers to get them to Europe. So far, organizers of the humanitarian corridor project say they have some 84 candidates to be airlifted out of Lebanon. While the organizers of the initiative are Christian, the candidates for transfer include both Christians and Muslims, officials said. The head of Sant’Egidio, Marco Impagliazzo, told the AP last month that he hopes the initiative will expand not only in Italy but elsewhere in Europe. He noted that many refugees today could fall under the “vulnerable” category that humanitarian visas are meant to address. Once in Italy, the refugees will be provided with housing, health care, educational and vocational services.

Israeli teenagers get long jail terms for Palestinian youth's murder
By Dan Williams Reuters, Jerusalem Thursday, 4 February 2016/An Israeli court jailed two Jewish youths on Thursday, one for life and the other for 21 years, for the murder of a Palestinian teenager in Jerusalem, a crime that helped trigger the 2014 Gaza war. The youths - unnamed because of their age - and a man, who organized the murder, were found guilty in November of the abduction, bludgeoning, strangling and burning of 16-year-old Mohammed Abu Khudair on July 2, 2014. All of them had confessed and said the murder was revenge for the killing of three Israeli youths by Hamas in the occupied West Bank days beforehand, prosecutors said. The incidents raised tensions, and a seven-week Israeli offensive against the Hamas-run Gaza Strip began on July 8 after cross-border Palestinian rocket attacks and an Israeli roundup of suspected militants in the West Bank. Tensions are intensifying again, with a wave of Palestinian street attacks against Israelis now in its fifth month, fuelled in part by Israeli building on land the Palestinians want for an independent state, stalled peace talks, and Muslim anger at perceived Jewish encroachment on a contested Jerusalem shrine. Abu Khudair's father, Hussein, told reporters at Jerusalem District Court that the family wanted an appeal to the Supreme Court to give the youngest defendant a life prison term as well. The boys were 17 and 16 when they murdered Abu Khudair. "If there is no apartheid or racism (in Israel), you will have to do this," Hussein Abu Khudair said, saying authorities had been easy on the teenager because he is a Jew not an Arab. The state had sought life prison terms for both teenagers, but voiced satisfaction with Thursday's sentencing. "I hope that the message will be relayed that actions of this kind are revolting and that we as a society will not accept them," prosecutor Uri Korb told reporters. The man who organized Abu Khudair's murder, Yosef Haim Ben-David, lodged an insanity plea that has held up his formal conviction and sentencing. A court review of his psychological competence is scheduled for next week. Korb said that it was too early to know whether the state would appeal the lesser sentence of the younger teen and that the state hoped to quash Ben-David's insanity plea, see him jailed for life and "bring closure of this in the near future".Avi Himi, lawyer for the younger teenager, said he would advise his client to appeal. "I believe the minor did take part in the incident but not in the actual murder and should therefore have been acquitted of the murder charge," he said. A lawyer for the older youth did not immediately comment on his client's sentence. Life terms in Israel have often been commuted to 25 years' imprisonment, with reductions of terms possible under individual parole considerations or clemency.

Two Israeli Arab teen girls stab bus station guard
AFP, Jerusalem Thursday, 4 February 2016/Two Arab Israeli teenage girls stabbed and lightly wounded a guard at a bus station in central Israeli city Ramle on Thursday before being arrested, police said. The attack was the latest in a four-month wave of Palestinian violence targeting Israeli civilians and security personnel in the West Bank and Israel. According to police, a security guard at the entrance to the central bus station of the city, southeast of Tel Aviv, asked the two 13-year-olds -- one of them carrying a backpack -- to identify themselves. The two then pulled knives and stabbed the guard in an arm and his legs, lightly wounding him before they were apprehended. The guard was taken to hospital, medics said. A number of Arab Israelis have carried out attacks as part of the wave of Palestinian violence since October, which has killed 26 Israelis, as well as an American and an Eritrean, according to an AFP count. At the same time, 164 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, most while carrying out attacks but others during clashes and demonstrations. Arab Israelis hold Israeli citizenship, though they largely see themselves as Palestinians.

Turkish parties hold first meeting to draft new constitution
By AP Ankara, Turkey Thursday, 4 February 2016/A Turkish parliamentary commission is meeting in a fresh push to draft a new constitution that would replace the current charter which is a legacy of the 1980 military coup. The Constitutional Consensus Commission, comprised of legislators from all four parties in parliament, held its first meeting on Thursday. While all parties agree on the need to overhaul the constitution, the opposition strongly opposes the ruling party's plans to turn Turkey's political system into a presidential one, giving the president executive powers. Currently, the president's role is largely ceremonial. The opposition fears that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has grown increasingly authoritarian, is aiming to concentrate too much power in his hands. A previous commission disbanded in 2013 after failing to agree on several issues.

Iran’s Zarif calls for immediate ceasefire in Syria
By Reuters Thursday, 4 February 2016/Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif called on Thursday for U.N.-mediated Syrian peace talks to resume after they were suspended on Wednesday and for an immediate ceasefire. “We hope that the pause in the Geneva talks is only temporary,” Zarif said in an address to a donor conference in London.

Explosion at refinery in Iran’s Lavan Island after gas leak
Reuters, Dubai Thursday, 4 February 2016/A gas leak caused an explosion at a refinery in Lavan Island in southern Iran on Wednesday, the Fars news agency reported, a day before the launch of six new projects there. The incident caused no casualties, the agency said, but the launch of the projects had been cancelled after the explosion. Lavan Island has one of the major export terminals for crude oil in Iran. “The incident happened due to a gas leak in a new petroleum refining unit that was supposed to be launched tomorrow,” Iran’s deputy oil minister, Abbas Kazemi was quoted as saying by the state news agency IRNA on Wednesday. The oil ministry’s news agency, SHANA, reported that compressor failure at the refinery was to blame for the explosion, and that it would be fixed in next 10 days. The agency said the explosion had only affected a small part of the refinery and the rest was operational. Kazemi was quoted by Mehr News Agency as saying on Saturday that Lavan Refinery was being upgraded in order to reach a total gasoline output of 2 to 2.2 million litres which meet meets euro-4 standard obligations. The upgrade of the Lavan refinery was supposed to finish in 2011 but projects were delayed due to international sanctions imposed on Iran because of its nuclear programme. Iran is on track to raise oil production by 500,000 barrels per day after the lifting of sanctions this month and has already sold 6 supertankers with additional crude to buyers in Europe and Asia. Tehran has said it would boost output by another 500,000 bpd within a year, ultimately reaching pre-sanction production levels of 4 million bpd seen in 2010-2011.

U.S. drone strike kills six al-Qaeda suspects in Yemen
AFP, Aden Thursday, 4 February 2016/An air strike believed to have been carried out by a US drone has killed six Al-Qaeda suspects in south Yemen, a security official said Thursday. The unmanned warplane targeted an al-Qaeda vehicle in Rodhoum area, in Shabwa province, late Wednesday killing its six passengers, the official said. The United States is the only country known to operate armed drones over Yemen, home to what it considers to be the extremist group's most dangerous affiliate - al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.It has kept up strikes on extremists during months of fighting between pro-government forces and Iran-backed Houthi rebels who control the capital. Militants, including AQAP and ISIS, have gained ground in the south, with AQAP fighters seizing the town of Azzan in Shabwa, earlier this week.

Tribal officials: Drone strike kills Yemeni Al-Qaeda leader
By Staff Writer Al Arabiya English Thursday, 4 February 2016/A Yemeni Al-Qaeda leader was killed in a drone strike overnight in the southern province of Abian, Yemeni tribal officials said Thursday. Jalal Baliedy headed Al-Qaeda in the province and had led several major attacks, including the beheading of soldiers. Three other people were killed in the strike, the officials said. Meanwhile six Al-Qaeda operatives have also been killed in a seperate attack carried out with a U.S. drone in Shabwa, Eastern Yemen, Al Arabiya News channel has reported. Washington considers Al-Qaeda’s Yemen branch to be the most dangerous offshoot of the network. The group has been blamed for a number of unsuccessful bomb plots aimed at Americans, including an attempt to bring down a U.S.-bound airliner with explosives hidden in the bomber’s underwear and a second plot to send bombs hidden in printer cartridges on planes headed to the U.S. Six other suspected Al-Qaeda members were killed when a drone strike hit their car in Shabwa province, according to tribal officials. In the southern port city of Aden, a child was killed when a bomb exploded Wednesday near the convoy of the Lahj province security chief, Adel al-Halemi. The chief, three of his colleagues and three civilians were injured in the attack, security officials said. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals. (With AP)

Body of Italian student shows signs of torture: Egypt officials
Reuters, Cairo Thursday, 4 February 2016/The body of an Italian student who went missing in Cairo was found half naked by the roadside with cigarette burns and other signs of torture, a senior Egyptian prosecutor said on Thursday. In Rome, Italy's Foreign Ministry summoned the Egyptian ambassador to express concern over the death of Giulio Regeni, who disappeared on Jan. 25, the five-year anniversary of the uprising that ended Hosni Mubarak's 30-year rule. The body of the 28-year-old Cambridge University doctoral student has been taken to a Cairo morgue, a morgue worker and security officials said. Security officials said an investigation had begun. Regeni was found at the start of the highway from Cairo to Alexandria, they said. A friend said Regeni had disappeared after leaving his home in a smart district in Cairo to meet another friend downtown. Last year, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants kidnapped a Croatian man from the outskirts of Cairo and later beheaded him, but such incidents are rare and there was a heavy police presence in downtown Cairo when Regeni went missing. Although the cause of death is still unclear, Regeni's case could hurt Egypt's efforts to project an image of stability and attract more tourism and foreign investment after years of political turmoil and Islamist militant violence. The Italian Foreign Ministry's director general, Michele Valensise, "urgently" summoned Egyptian Ambassador Amr Mostafa Kamal Helmy after Regeni's body was found on Wednesday. The ministry said it expected "maximum collaboration at all levels in light of the exceptional gravity of what happened".Italian Industry Minister Federica Guidi cut short a two-day visit to Egypt on Wednesday after Regeni's death was reported. A copy of Regeni's CV, provided by another friend, indicated he spoke four languages and had won several scholarships. His research focused on trade unions in Egypt after the 2011 uprising that ended Mubarak's 30-year rule.Human rights groups say Egyptians are often detained by police on little evidence and beaten or coerced. Scores have disappeared since 2013. Egypt denies allegations of police brutality. Islamist militants have killed hundreds of police and soldiers since the army toppled President Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013 after mass protests against his rule. They have also targeted Westerners.

U.S. will ‘act against ISIS in Libya if needed’
Reuters Thursday, 4 February 2016/U.S. President Barack Obama will continue to be updated on the risks of the spread of ISIS to Libya, and the United States will take action in the North African country to counter that threat if necessary, the White House said on Wednesday. “If there is a need for the United States to take unilateral action to protect the American people, the president won’t hesitate to do that,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest told reporters. Earnest declined to comment on whether Obama had made any decisions on the possibility of sending ground troops into Libya, but said the president has “demonstrated a willingness to take decisive action,” even in Libya. ISIS forces have attacked Libya’s oil infrastructure and established a foothold in the city of Sirte, exploiting a power vacuum in the country where two rival governments have been battling for supremacy. Libya’s two warring administrations are expected to form a unity government. Earnest said the United States would support the unity government on a range of national security measures, but it was too early to say what form that assistance would take.
“The more that we can bolster the capacity of the national unity government to govern that country, the better off we will be,” he said.

Tunisia lifts nationwide nighttime curfew
AFP, Tunisia Thursday, 4 February 2016/Tunisia said on Thursday it was lifting a nationwide nighttime curfew it imposed last month following the worst social unrest witnessed in the country since its 2011 revolution. "In light of the improvement in the security situation, it was decided that from Thursday... the curfew on all Tunisian territory will be lifted," the interior ministry said in a statement. The curfew was imposed after protests that started in the central town of Kasserine, where an unemployed man was electrocuted during a January 16 demonstration over the lack of economic prospects in the region. The unrest, the worst since the uprising five years ago that ousted longtime dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, spread to several other towns and to Tunis where shops were burned and looted in one suburb in the night of January 21. The authorities announced the curfew the next day, and protests ebbed after continuing for a while in Kasserine and the nearby town of Sidi Bouzid, the cradle of the 2011 revolution. Tunisia in November imposed another nighttime curfew in the capital and suburbs after a deadly bus bombing claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group. It was lifted in December. Following the November 24 suicide attack that killed 12 presidential guards, the government also declared a nationwide state of emergency, which remains in place. While Tunisia is considered a rare success story of the 2011 regional uprisings known as the Arab Spring, the authorities have failed to resolve the problems of social exclusion. Last year two other ISIS-claimed attacks in the capital and near the Mediterranean resort town of Sousse killed a total of 60 people, all but one of them foreign tourists.

Selfies in Syria: How one Iranian religious singer is showing his support for fighters
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/February 04/16
When pictures of famous Iranian religious singer Saeed Haddadian and his son wearing military fatigues in Syria surfaced online in late January it caused such a stir that Saudi Arabian media a few days later published false reports that they had both been killed. To clear up questions about the pictures and explain his reasons for traveling to Syria, Haddadian spoke to Tasnim News Agency, which published a Q&A on Feb. 3.Haddadian said he was opposed to the pictures being published online. One picture shows Haddadian standing in the Syrian countryside with a walkie-talkie in hand. Another pictures shows his son, Mohammad Hossein, crouching behind a machine gun inside a bunker. A third picture shows father and son taking what appears to be a selfie. According to Haddadian, his son sent the pictures to his brother and friends in Iran, who then published them online. The pictures of Haddadian, whose association with Iran’s hard-liners has made him one of the handful of famous religious singers in the country, quickly spread across conservative Iranian media. When asked about the reason for his trip to Syria, Haddadian said he went to Syria to pay his respects to the fighters in Syria because “what we say with words they do in action.” He claimed that at one point he was within 500 meters (a third of a mile) from the front line. He also said that the trip was research-related for a presentation for the “defenders of the [Zeinab] shrine,” which is what Iran calls members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria fighting on the side of the Syrian government. He encouraged writers to visit Syria because in a few years the country's current environment will likely no longer exist and there are important stories there that need to be told.
According to Haddadian, a number of clerics have been killed in Syria in the last few months. He criticized the fact that this has not been covered in Iranian media. Haddadian did not say how many clerics have been killed but Iranian media reported that Hojat al-Islam Mostafa Khalili was recently killed in Syria. Khalili’s death was announced along with nearly a dozen other Iranians. As usual, information on the nature or time of their death was not offered. In response to incorrect reports on his own death in the Saudi-funded Al-Arabiya, Haddadian said, “They lie a lot and this is one of their lies.” He added, however, “Not everyone can achieve martyrdom but God willing, one day you will hear news of my martyrdom.”Haddadian said that the situation in Syria “is heading toward a final victory.” He described the situation in Damascus as “very good” but conceded there are a number of cities with large Shiite populations consisting of tens of thousands of people under blockade by opposition fighters. He said these cities requested fighters and this was a “type of divine responsibility.”Russia’s air campaign in Syria has been instrumental in changing the tide of the war in favor of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Iran has welcomed Russia’s entrance into the war. The foreign policy adviser for Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ali Akbar Velayati, traveled to Moscow on Feb. 1 for a four-day visit. While in Moscow, Velayati met with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special adviser for Syria, Alexander Lavrentiv, to discuss regional developments and ties.

Egypt fills its prisons, but don't worry, it'll make more
Albaraa Abdullah/Al-Monitor/February 04/16
Egypt's worsening human rights abuses are not going unnoticed. People are being assaulted on many fronts, from travel restrictions and false imprisonment to limits on freedom of expression, torture and killings. In an example of this trend, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi issued a presidential decree Jan. 13 designating 100 acres of land for construction of the new Giza Central Prison, a huge structure and its ancillary buildings, in the Giza desert. Sisi, and Adly Mansour before him, approved 16 new prisons in only 2½ years in response to the detention of thousands of young people. Some facilities are still under construction. The number of prisons in Egypt has risen from 42 to 52 since 2011, according to Gamal Eid, executive director of the Arabic Network for Human Rights Information. During the rule of the Military Council, and that of deposed President Mohammed Morsi, Egyptian authorities had asserted that Egyptian prisons were free of political prisoners and detainees. However, current rights groups estimate 10,000 detainees are under investigation or awaiting trial in detention centers and prisons, and Eid wrote in a Jan. 13 Twitter post that Egypt now houses around 60,000 political prisoners.
There are no official statistics on the number of inmates in Egyptian prisons. Recently, security agencies have investigated the fate of around 120 Egyptians out of a total of 200 detainees reported to have disappeared under suspicious circumstances, most of them anti-state activists. The Ministry of Interior informed the National Council for Human Rights in Egypt that the aforementioned were either being held pending investigations, were acquitted or escaped prison and are now being sought by authorities. After a series of incidents in which unarmed civilians were tortured and even killed by police officers inside and outside detention centers in past months, and the subsequent boisterous protests that sometimes required presidential intervention, the prosecutor general’s office put a number of police officers on trial, some of whom were preliminarily put in prison or received other sentences.
Egypt is experiencing an assault on the freedoms of opinion and expression at the hands of security services, under the pretext of safeguarding national security, as per a statement published by the Arabic Network for Human Rights Information. The statement condemned the arrest of journalists and a number of activists affiliated with certain social movements, primarily the April 6 Youth Movement. The movement has said it considers the regime’s attempts to crush it as "failures," further characterizing this era of Egypt’s judiciary as bleak. The Arabic Network views such oppressive conduct as a continuation of the rabid campaign waged by authorities against all factions affiliated with the January 25 Revolution ahead of its commemoration.
In a related incident on Jan. 14, Cairo airport authorities detained poet Omar Hazek and prevented him from traveling to the Netherlands to receive the Oxfam Novib/PEN International Free Expression Award. The incident with Hazek was not the first of its kind. Rights lawyer Tarek Elawady was also detained upon returning from Doha on Jan. 9 when, as he recounted, the scan of his passport raised a warning notification that he was “wanted immediately.” Elawady noted that detention without legal justification is a crime under the Egyptian Constitution. That same day, security forces raided the home of physician Taher Mokhtar, who was being visited by two of his friends. Officers searched the house and all three were taken to the police station and charged with possessing leaflets calling for the overthrow of the regime. They were further detained pending additional investigations.
Mokhtar is a prominent activist calling for the reform of prison health services and a member of the campaign “Medical Neglect in Prison is a Crime,” which aims to guarantee all detainees their right to medical and health services. He also is an active member of the Doctors’ Syndicate Rights and Freedom Committee, which said on its website that Mokhtar was tasked by the syndicate’s board to follow up on the issue of detainee health conditions in police stations.
Fourteen rights organizations and parties demanded the release of Mokhtar and his companions, saying the detention was a vindictive move against human rights defenders. Egyptian authorities are not content with merely preventing some citizens active in society from leaving the country. They also are barring the return of others who they allege pose a security risk. At the beginning of January, Egyptian authorities prevented researcher and university professor Amal Grami from entering the country because she was “a threat to national security.” Grami, who specializes in Islamic civilization and gender issues, was detained upon her arrival at Cairo International Airport. She was questioned for about 16 hours and her personal laptop and cellphone were searched. She was subsequently denied entry and deported back to Tunisia, an incident that rights organizations consider blatant police interference in academic liberties.
Grami had been officially invited to speak at the anti-extremism international conference organized by the Library of Alexandria. She suggested her treatment was probably due to the sharp criticism she has leveled against Tunisian security agencies for their human rights violations. She said authorities might have considered her recent articles published in Egypt’s Al Shorouk newspaper as incitement against Egyptian state institutions, as events in Tunisia intersect with those in Egypt, given the past five years of revolutions in both countries.
Grami added, “No irony is greater than the fact that I am invited to give a lecture about 'Evaluation of Research Methods in Extremism and Terrorism … Outcome and Proposals,' and then relegated to the same category as terrorists!” In October, Alexandria University canceled, for “security reasons,” a lecture by Essam Heggy, a NASA scientist and former adviser to Mansour. Heggy is known for his critical views about the Egyptian government. After the cancellation, Heggy apologized to students via Facebook, writing, “The administration of Alexandria University lacked the capacity to accommodate your enthusiasm and presence, and decided to cancel the lecture just one day before its date. I would like to thank the university’s administration for tirelessly endeavoring to maintain the homeland’s security, by barring a lecture about the discovery of the planet Mars.”For his part, former Sisi campaign official Hazem Abdel Azim said, “I am filled with sorrow when I assess the state of the country from [the January 25 Revolution] to date." He said joining Sisi’s campaign was the worst decision of his life. Amr Hamzawy, a political science professor at the American University in Cairo, said the ongoing oppression of free speech and liberties is beginning to create a republic of fear.

Obama's Israeli-Palestinian failure
Uri Savir/Al-Monitor/February 04/16
President Barack Obama is leaving office in one year’s time. On his record he can include changing the rules of the game in current international relations toward an assertive collective diplomacy in coordination with major world powers — Russia, China and the European Union — leaving the use of force as a last resort. Obama has put an end to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, achieved a historic agreement curbing Iran’s nuclear capacity and, it seems, is making progress on arranging the sharing of power in Syria.But there is one area in which the Obama administration failed to make progress: resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. His efforts were blocked by the Israeli settlement policy and by the weakness of the Palestinian Authority (PA). In his recent foreign policy review on Jan. 22 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Secretary of State John Kerry did not say a single word about this issue.
This leaves the Israeli-Palestinian relationship in a volatile situation. Violence and terror are rampant, and so are the rumors in the West Bank concerning a possible breakdown of the PA and an eventual armed intifada. The question is: Should Obama, in his last year in office, give up on the two-state solution? In a Jan. 21 press conference with Israeli correspondents at the Muqata, President Mahmoud Abbas called on the international community to convene an international peace conference on a two-state solution based on the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002. He also asked for a freeze of Israeli settlement construction and the release of 36 pre-Oslo Palestinian prisoners incarcerated in Israel. These ideas became the basis for the French initiative of Jan. 29 in favor of convening of an international conference. French and Palestinian diplomats held close consultations on the initiative over the course of January.
A senior PA official with access to the president told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that this is the last diplomatic offer Abbas would make to the international community. He said, “Abbas is a man of moderation and is probably the last leader in this situation to prefer diplomacy over an armed uprising or struggle. The US, and not only France, would do right to take Abbas up on his offer, since the alternative is a fundamental destabilization of the regional situation.”
The official analyzed the various scenarios of violent deterioration if an international peace conference is not convened in the near future. The dangers include an armed intifada joined by Fatah, a possible dismantling of the PA and the resignation of its moderate leader. All these possibilities, according to the Palestinian official, would lead to wider regional radicalization and strengthen fundamentalist groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Islamic State (IS). Abbas’ proposal for an international conference based on the Arab Peace Initiative now has great value and should be accepted by the United States, he argued. The official added that the United States is investing in much diplomatic effort with Israel and the PA to avoid violence and is focused on weakening IS and other fundamentalist organizations. This strategy will probably suffer a setback if an armed intifada breaks out, given the solidarity in the Arab world with the Palestinians' struggle. Economic confidence-building measures and enhancing security cooperation will not suffice. Only a significant step toward a two-state solution can stabilize the area. Abbas is proposing the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 as a basis for negotiations because it will provide him with the necessary backing of the Arab world for a diplomatic route. The initiative also has many advantages for Israel. It links the two-state solution to the normalization of Israel's relations with Arab countries, leaves the issue of the Palestinian right of return to an agreement with Israel and includes a mutual land swap in relation to the 1967 border. The United States as well could accept this as a platform, as such a framework served as one of the pillars for the 2007 Annapolis conference. A senior US State Department official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that Washington is aware of the Abbas proposal and has not rejected the French initiative. The official acknowledged the value of an international conference with agreed-upon terms of reference. Yet he questioned the timing, given Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s positions and Abbas’ lack of flexibility on conditions for the conference. Be that as it may, the official said that the State Department is still considering various policy moves that could create a platform for a future peace process, such as a presidential policy speech advocating Kerry’s policy framework as presented to the parties in April 2014. He did not rule out an international gathering to create a new platform for peace talks even during the remaining days of the Obama administration. It's too late for Washington to agonize over these dilemmas, given the despair in the PA and the violence on the ground. Washington would be well-advised to hurry up and convene the proposed international conference based on both the Arab Peace Initiative and Israel’s security needs.

Will Saudi's cut to trade with Iran really matter?
Alireza Ramezani/Al-Monitor/February 04/16
TEHRAN, Iran — Tension seems to be escalating further between Tehran and Riyadh after the Jan. 2 storming of the Saudi Embassy and consulate by a number of “extremists” in Iran. Although the administration of President Hassan Rouhani has distanced itself from the attackers, the Saudi regime was quick to cut diplomatic relations with Iran and call on its Arab allies to follow its lead. Attempts to de-escalate the situation have so far failed. Even the Iranian and Saudi foreign ministers shaking hands on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos last week did little to help the two regional rivals come closer over their differences, including the Syrian crisis.For decades, the two oil-rich countries have been competing for a larger share in the politics of the Middle East, to spread their ideological influence throughout the region and to play a key role in pricing oil as a crucial development tool. That particular power is gaining more significance as crude hit a 12-year low last week, putting overwhelming pressure on the oil-based economies of Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Indeed, Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit of $98 billion in 2015 and is on track for an $80 billion deficit this year. Falling oil prices coupled with international sanctions have also left Iran with a budget deficit of at least $8.3 billion in the Iranian fiscal year ending March 19. Yet neither Iran nor Saudi Arabia seem willing to compromise despite the looming consequences of their dispute. In reaction to Riyadh shutting down its embassy in Tehran and severing commercial ties, Iran banned all trade with Saudi Arabia. Almost all observers in Iran believe that the value of this activity is too trivial to hurt the Iranian economy. Indeed, bilateral trade stood at a mere $215.1 million in the nine months leading up to Dec. 21. Iran’s trade with other Arab states that have followed Saudi Arabia’s lead in cutting relations is also not significant. For instance, Iran’s trade with Bahrain, Sudan, Djibouti and Somalia — the four other countries that have cut trade relations with Tehran — was as low as $145 million collectively.
The United Arab Emirates, however, is an exception among Iran’s Arab trade partners. Despite pressure from Riyadh to cut relations with Iran, Abu Dhabi only moved to downgrade diplomatic ties with the Islamic Republic. The UAE was a major trade partner of Iran while the nuclear-related sanctions were in place, and still is to this day. Iran-UAE trade exceeded $44.1 billion in value in the nine months leading to Dec. 21. The value of goods exported from Iran to the UAE in the last Iranian fiscal year accounted for 11% of total Iranian exports, while the value of those imported by Iran from the UAE accounted for 23% of total Iranian imports. These figures suggest that it would be hard for Iran to replace the UAE with any other regional partner, such as Turkey or Oman, as suggested by some traders, in the short run. Hossein Salimi, chairman of the Iranian and Foreign Joint Venture Investments Association, told Al-Monitor that although trade with Saudi Arabia and the Arab states that have followed its lead is too small to be meaningful, the UAE is a significant partner whose role in the Iranian economy cannot be ignored. He said Iran is also a lucrative market for the UAE.
“Economic factors shape political preferences,” he noted, adding that the UAE is unlikely to sacrifice its economic interests for a political dispute between Tehran and Riyadh. Asked whether the mounting Iranian-Saudi tension could disappoint European investors, he said the West is familiar with the regional political developments and differences between Iran and Saudi Arabia that have existed for years. “The attack on the Saudi Embassy cannot affect the European appetite for investment in an untouched market like Iran,” Salimi said, referring to Rouhani's reported signing of a contract to buy 114 Airbus planes during his trip to France. Salimi further argued that regardless of what happened in Tehran on Jan. 2, Chinese President Xi Jinping traveled to Iran to deepen economic cooperation despite the risk of Beijing’s expanding ties with the Islamic Republic infuriating Riyadh. In this vein, Salimi said that it appears that only Iranian hajjis might be affected by the rising tension with Saudi Arabia. Indeed, Hossein Askari, a former Iranian adviser to the Saudi minister of finance, told leading Iranian economic daily Donya-e Eqtesad on Jan. 26 that the halting of hajj pilgrimages from Iran could be hurting the Saudi economy more severely than Iran’s ban on trade with the country. However, he insisted that the Iranian-Saudi dispute will in the end result in a “lose-lose situation.”
Sadegh Zibakalam, a political analyst and professor at Tehran University, also believes that incidents like that at the Saudi Embassy are harmful as they imply that foreigners are not safe in Iran. “The foreign policy dictated by radical figures in Tehran must openly be criticized so that a bunch of hard-liners won’t be able to threaten national interests,” he said in a Jan. 26 interview with Donya-e Eqtesad. Unlike the majority of traders and business analysts in Iran, Zibakalam considers the attack on the embassy to be damaging to the Iranian economy, as it will increase risks to investment.
Salimi disagrees. He told Al-Monitor that such political tensions have a “temporary” impact on Iran’s economic relations with the world, although he admitted that multinational banks have not yet responded to his organization’s call to resume trade with Iran. He said, “They prefer to wait for a year or so before making any decision, but small European banks have already agreed to trade with Iran. Part of the big banks’ hesitancy may be due to fear of punishment by the United States as some of them were already punished for their financial ties with Iran while the country was under sanctions.”
Iran is widely seen as the world’s biggest untapped emerging market since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Neither Europeans nor Arabs are likely to choose to miss the opportunity to gain a share of business with Iran in the coming years. Given the seemingly insignificant impact of the cut in Iranian-Saudi trade and in the absence of bilateral political dialogue, perhaps finding a multilateral resolution to the myriad Iranian-Saudi competitions in the region, including in Syria, could be a turning point in the relations between the two countries. Until then, it appears that the cut in commercial ties is unlikely to compel political engagement between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Tunnel arms race' heating up
Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/February 04/16
Israeli citizens are used to living under constant threat. Israel has been in an official state of war since the day it was founded in 1948. This is just part of the Israeli “routine.” In fact, it doesn't even prevent Israelis from being ranked first or second in terms of “happiness,” as evidenced in the UN World Happiness Report, polls by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and other surveys. Only one threat rouses Israelis to true panic: Hamas' tunnels.There is something about the tunnel phenomenon that elicits a deep fear in the toughest of Israelis. Residents of the Gaza envelope don't sleep so well thinking that Islamic jihadis might emerge at any given moment from the depths of the earth in the heart of a kibbutz to kill or abduct them and disappear without a trace. In recent weeks, this threat returned to the Israeli public's attention in a major way.
On Feb. 3, Hamas announced the collapse of a tunnel in the midst of construction. Evidently, at least two Hamas activists or fighters were killed and eight injured. A similar collapse had occurred a few days earlier, killing seven people. Hamas had tried to hide these events, but without much success.
According to the organization, the latter tunnel was the one kidnappers used to abduct the Israeli soldier Oron Shaul during Operation Protective Edge, in July 2014. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has confirmed that the movement is swiftly renovating its tunnel system. The Palestinians claim that they have already reached the same subterranean capabilities they had on the eve of Operation Protective Edge, but Israel's top brass believe that to be a wild exaggeration — although no one doubts the digging operation is around the clock, in shifts. They are trying to fix as many tunnels as possible to allow Hamas to restore its assault capacity against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
Hamas chose the tunnel system as a daring strategic weapon to compensate for its obvious weakness compared with the IDF in three battle-related arenas. Israel has air superiority, because its air force, one of the best in the world, enjoys full control of the skies, including use of some of the most sophisticated combat drones available. It became known only recently — in the wake of documents from Edward Snowden's cache — that Israel’s combat drones are armed, allowing it to attack targets and efficiently carry out targeted killings. Hamas is also no match for the IDF on the ground. The latter is larger and much better equipped and trained. The same holds true for naval superiority. Although the Palestinians established a “naval commando,” with stalwart scuba divers, they cannot compete with the fast boats of the Israeli navy. Thus all that remained for Mohammed al-Deif — leader of Hamas’ military wing who during Operation Protective Edge survived the fifth attempt on his life — was to find a sector where his organization would have a relative advantage over IDF soldiers. He searched, and he found it in the underground battlefield. Hamas views an abducted Israeli soldier as its biggest prize. The Israeli public cannot bear the thought of a kidnapped soldier being held prisoner by a terrorist organization. The national psychosis that developed around Gilad Shalit's abduction proved the truth of this hypothesis yet again. After holding Shalit a little more than five years (2006-11), Hamas received about a thousand Palestinian prisoners in exchange for him, one Israel soldier. Most of the prisoners were convicted murderers.
The primary reason Hamas is building the tunnels is to facilitate the abduction of Israeli soldiers or civilians and drag them through the same tunnel to a hiding place prepared in advance. Hamas operatives in the depths of the tunnels are protected from aerial bombing, tank shells and even the IDF’s infantry units. In trying to disable the tunnels during Operation Protective Edge, the Israeli air force dropped a large number of earth-penetrating JDAM bombs on tunnel shafts only later to find that they had caused only minor damage. All the enemy had to do was dig an alternative entrance nearby.
In January, Gaza envelope residents filed a number of reports about noise from intensive digging, especially at night. Journalists and television crews flooded the area to record the sounds emitting from the ground, clearly audible for long hours of the day. The story made headlines in Israel, and the public wants clear answers from the IDF. According to current analysis, the Palestinians are far from finishing the tunnel renovations. At the height of the underground operations, Hamas had 32 tunnels, a large proportion of which crossed into Israeli territory. The updated assessment is that Hamas is in the throes of a renovation effort, and the IDF is unaware of any tunnels having penetrated Israeli territory thus far.
There appears to be a sort of “tunnel arms race,” with the Palestinians trying to dig into Israeli territory, and Israel trying to develop a counter-deployment as the appropriate Zionist response. The Israelis call it the “underground Iron Dome,” referring to the anti-missile Iron Dome defense system. The tunnel defense is expected to allow effective recognition of tunnel-building activity with maximum accuracy. The US government recently authorized $120 million in special assistance for the development of such a system. Until it is in place, the IDF is considering beefing up protection around the Gaza envelope, sending infantry into the area and even conducting pre-emptive strikes. The latter option was recommended Jan. 31 by opposition leader Isaac Herzog. He said that if Israel is aware of the existence of assault tunnels, it must blow them up now, meaning before, not after, a catastrophe. “The panic is exaggerated,” a highly placed Israeli security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “Hamas is not ready for a clash with Israel at the moment. Their tunnel deployment now is far from the way it was before the Protective Edge campaign, and Israel is developing a mechanism for neutralizing the tunnels. The uproar is excessive.”
Nevertheless, anyone who has recently visited Gaza envelope locations cannot but be taken aback by the large quantity of heavy equipment deployed by the IDF for digging, drilling, maneuvering and wire-tapping at various spots in the area — that is, wherever distraught residents have reported someone digging under their homes. Israel is hoping that Hamas won’t try to break out if its isolation a second time via these tunnels from hell. “Most of the houses that were destroyed in Gaza during Protective Edge are still in ruins,” a senior Israeli officer for the Gaza envelope sector told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “Hamas knows this, and is very aware of what will happen if they attack again.” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a threat of his own: “If we are attacked from tunnels from the Gaza Strip, we’ll respond more powerfully that we did during the Protective Edge campaign.” Maj. Gen. Yoav “Poli” Mordechai, coordinator of government activities in the territories, also sent a message to Gaza. Regardless, Israel is aware that the Gaza pressure cooker might be headed toward an explosion. To Gaza’s south, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is sealing tunnels and has closed the Rafah crossing because he views Hamas as a threat to his country's national security. To Gaza's west lies the Mediterranean Sea, controlled by the Israeli navy. The option left for Hamas is to challenge Israel underground to find a way out. Israel has risen to the challenge, and now the sides are asking themselves when, not if, the next round in Gaza will be.

The states remain despite terrorism
Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 04/16
Videos and photographs have circulated online of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Nayef’s visit to Al-Ahsaa region in the Eastern Province following the terrorist attack on Imam Rida mosque last week. He even appeared in a selfie with one of the injured victims. His meetings and dialogue with people there were distinguished by goodwill. Society must detect terrorists, limit their activity and report them. Security forces will handle the rest. When he met the brave young man who attacked the second suicide bomber before he could blow himself up, bin Nayef confirmed that the kingdom will triumph over terrorism. Society has become a partner with the state in fighting extremism, but without getting involved in the state’s role. This is the whole point. The state’s role will always be paramount, as the prince has said before. People’s help, unity and attentiveness is important, but it is unacceptable that some enthusiastic citizens in several areas want to form what resembles popular mobilization forces in mosques. The roles of the community and individuals end when they interfere with that of the state. Everyone was happy with the young man’s deterrence of the terrorist in the mosque, and with youths’ efforts in general to limit terrorist activities around mosques. However, all this falls within the context of complementing, not interfering with, the state’s role. Society must detect terrorists, limit their activity and report them. Security forces will handle the rest. May God protect His worshippers from all evil.

Syria, Geneva, London – three parallel universes
Chris Doyle/Al Arabiya/February 04/16
Approaching five years of the conflict, the international community is stuck in three parallel universes on Syria. The negotiators and mediators congregate in Geneva unable to agree even to preparatory talks leading to proximity talks to indirect talks let alone direct talks. The warmongers continue their remorseless attacks unabated in Syria, a combination of medieval sieges and modern day carpet bombing and scorched earth tactics. The donor countries flock to London, sadly not to fund the fruits of the political process but to underfund the barbaric consequences of the conflict. What a message that this sends to Syrians - that the political, humanitarian and military tracks are so tragically divorced. What should be complementary processes, are still heading in opposite directions. In London, on February 4 at least the donors can gather in one room but does this mean it will be any more successful? Around 70-80 governments will be represented at the Supporting Syria and the Region conference. This is the fourth donors’ pledging conference for Syria, the first three having been hosted in Kuwait. The international community, including donor states, have consistently proved incapable or unwilling to address either the causes or symptoms of the Syria conflict. With the bombardment continuing apace inside Syria and with little or no relief to the 400,000 living in besieged areas, the bill for long-term political failure is measured in billions. The U.N.'s total funding requirement is an eye-watering $8.96 billion up from $7.4bn in 2015. Last year it was 53% funded. Donor funding is hugely constrained not least with the oil price below the $30 dollar mark. Many would argue that actually the donors have not been nearly generous enough. Jan Egeland, Secretary General, Norwegian Refugee Council has written that the U.S. and EU gave only $5 per capita to Syrians last year. His argument is that the U.N. funding requirement is the bare minimum. Limping over the halfway mark will be a sign of acute failure. Many of those states professing to be the most supportive of Syrians have failed to deliver a fair share according toresearch by Oxfam. France for example managed a derisory 45% of its fair share in 2015.
But billions of dollars of aid is not the sole requirement.
Political will
Firstly, the political will to end the conflict is still lacking. Above all no major power is prepared to confront and face down the Russians. Putin seems convinced that there is a military solution to Syria or at least that the opposition groups will be compelled whatever Pax Russia he is prepared to ordain.
The Russian bombing is now the major engine behind the continued refugee exodus. Secondly, the scale and nature of the response has to change. There has to be a transformational new deal for refugees and host countries. The focus of the conference indicates that donors have finally started to accept that stop gap funding is not enough. It has to include long term developmental assistance not least for protection, education and livelihoods. Reconstruction planning must also feature as planning cannot wait to the end of fighting. That the donors’ conference is in Europe, or on the periphery as half of Britain seems to believe is perhaps appropriate. Many argue that hitherto, such conferences were to prevent and protect the Middle East from the spill over from the conflict. The political imperative of the London donors’ conference appears to many to be to stem the flow of Syrian refugees into Europe and elsewhere by giving huge sums of aid to the key transit countries. European states have put up walls, ripped up their asylum rules and torn down the welcome signs, anything to limit the numbers.
This is unfair on many donor governments but it does reflect positions of states desperate to keep refugees and migrants out. The premise that the transit countries can handle another twelve months of refugee influx solely on additional aid is misplaced. Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon all require investment in infrastructure and public services. A key focus of the conference is on providing livelihoods but even with huge investment these states will not be able to The refugees will keep on coming not least as long as the conflict and the bombing continues. Those hoping that dollops of aid with stop this or even control it may be disappointed. European states must provide safe and legal routes into Europe especially for the most vulnerable refugees. Syria’s neighbours require massive investment to continue to act as primary refugee hosts. Will donors agree to fund significant upgrading of public services? Education stands out as a key priority with 2.1 million children out of school inside Syria and with 1.4 million Syrian refugee children lacking proper schooling.
The international community, including donor states, have consistently proved incapable or unwilling to address either the causes or symptoms of the Syria conflict. It is time that state actors turned more to those they have neglected for too long, Syrians and Syrian civil society. The three previous pledging conferences in Kuwait lacked a civil society component. London at least has. Although organised late in the day, a half day civil society conference on the 3rdFebruary allowed a degree of influence on the main donor conference. From the outset of the Syria crisis, civil society organizations (CSOs) inside Syria have typically proven to be the most positive and effective inside the country achieving extraordinary results on such limited means. CSOs are viewed with immense distrust by many of the actors in the conflict from the Syrian regime to many regional states and international actors, basically those who do not wish to see a democratic transition in Syria. The civil society conference’s communique called for the end of limitations that CSOs face in acquiring legal status in neighbouring countries and beyond.
Civil society
Even in the “West”, support for Syrian civil society has been lukewarm, its representatives rarely consulted. Above all, Syrian CSO efforts have been systematically hampered by the inability to use banking facilities with many Syrian groups having their accounts closed and loans denied. No surprises then that the civil society conference communique openly pushing for EU and U.S. sanctions reform. Syrian civil society actors are the closest embodiment of the protests of 2011 that called for freedom and dignity. One lamented that “Peace now is replacing democracy" as an aim as far as the international community was concerned. Whilst appreciative of international generosity, many called for a real true, equal partnership between donors, international agencies and Syrian organisations. Civil society may not have all the answers but they are closer to the actual events and trends on the ground. But one things stands out – for the most part they have adopted a truly inclusive approach that puts Syrians first. There is genuine and fervent desire not just to end the conflict but develop Syria as well. All too often the same cannot be said for the international community.

34 Years on Hama massacre: Assad doctrine has not changed
Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/February 04/16
“What are you talking about, 7000...No,no. We killed 38,000”, those were the words of former Syrian General Rifaat Assad in1982 as recounted by Thomas Friedman in his book "From Beirut to Jerusalem". Rifaat, who is now in exile, was exulting about the number of Syrians his forces killed in Hama 34 years ago, quashing a rebellion against his brother's dictatorship and setting the stage to what has followed. The ghosts of Hama today hover all over Syria, cementing the pillars of the Assad doctrine to rule by fear and hold on to power at any cost even if it means surrendering the country to devastation, radicalization and ultimate death. From father to uncle to son, the Assad playbook has not changed, copying the narrative of Hama to Homs, Douma, Ghouta, Idlib, Daraa and Aleppo, and in the process leaving behind more than 250 thousands dead, millions displaced, and a society in shambles.
Assad's playbook
The 3-week assault on Hama in 1982 has laid the ground for how the Assad regime reacts to any signs of rebellion later. Not coincidentally, the same horror tactics utilized in Hama in 1982 with Assad the father were replicated by the son across Syria following the 2011 uprising. In a chilling report by Amnesty International in 2012, survivors of the Hama massacre give their account of what happened, describing images of the dead splintered in the streets, left to be eaten by dogs and as a red flag for those whose lives were spared. Snipers were on the roofs, neighborhoods were razed and one survivor recalls the the attack on Mas’oud Mosque, where “some 60 men were killed before the security forces cut off their fingers and placed them along the mosque’s walls." She tells Amnesty “for around two years after the massacre, no one dared remove the fingers. They were so frightened."
The ghosts of Hama today hover all over Syria, cementing the pillars of the Assad doctrine to rule by fear and hold on to power at any cost even if it means surrendering the country to devastation, radicalization and ultimate death. Chopping fingers, slitting throats and maiming children comes to haunt the Syrians 30 years later, with the bodies of teenagers from Daraa who sparked the uprising in 2011 being tortured by the same Assad security apparatus that produced Hama. When that has proven insufficient to suppress the 2011 rebellion, the regime unleashed a blood quenching campaign, that has since broken Syria, rendering it to the mercy of militias, air bombardment, and on the path to fragmentation. While Assad the father benefitted from a media blackout in 1982, and intricate balance he had fostered regionally and globally with both the USSR and the West to avoid international backlash, the son was not as calculated. Bashar Assad borrowed the brutality from his father but not the geopolitical shrewdness. In his 16 years in office, he lost Lebanon, is abhorred regionally, grew dependent on Iran and Russia, and has turned Syria into a hub for sectarian militias and proxy battles attracting mercenaries from Baghdad to Minnesota.
A recipe for radicalization
Assad's aerial bombardment, use of chemical weapons, and resorting to blockades and starvation as weapons of war has kept him in power but has completely suffocated Syria. Today, the most notorious extremist groups from the so-called Islamic State to Jabhat Nusra to Iraqi Shia militias and Hezbollah, roam freely and control territory in Syria. The state political and economic infrastructure is depleted, and core principles that defined the Syrian Arab identity are replaced by a sectarian and vengeful narrative. The winners of Hama in 1982 were not just the Assad regime and his security apparatus, but also the radicals who exploited those atrocities, to go underground, organize and put together the early cornerstones of Al-Qaeda. It is the likes of Abu Musaab Al-Soori, an extremist with Al-Qaeda who is implicated in terrorist attacks from Spain to Afghanistan, who joined the early ranks of Al-Qaeda after surviving the Hama massacre. In this context, as long as the linkage between authoritarian regimes and the birth of extremism is ignored, there is no plausible way to defeat ISIS or Al-Qaeda or their affiliates. Assad and the radicals are interdependent on each other, and the horror of the first translates into the rise of the second, while borrowing the same tactics. A carbon copy of Assad's horrors in Hama in 1982, was seen in Palmyra in 2015 where bodies were also left in the streets by ISIS in an attempt to gain the population's submission. Syria, three and half decades after Hama, is a corpse of a state and a society shattered by the bombs of the dictator and the swords of the radicals. Resurrecting Syria can neither happen with the same playbook and rules that broke it, nor without justice for those whose ashes were left in the streets of Hama and for the many innocent lives desecrated by its rulers.

Education funding for Syrian refugees must go beyond school gates
Adrian Chadwick/Al Arabiya/February 04/16
Imagine you are the parent of a six-year-old Syrian child who started school in 2011, just as the uprising against the Assad regime began. It’s very likely that your child’s schooling first became disrupted, and then just stopped. Five years later, you may have abandoned your home, or are living in a refugee camp on Syria’s borders, or in emergency accommodation in one of the surrounding countries. Yet your child is nearly halfway through what should have been their school career. At 11, they should be ready for Middle School, starting the route towards public examinations. Instead, your child like many hundreds of thousands of other children have had hardly any formal schooling at all. This is Syria’s youth today, deprived of an education that will be vital for the rebuilding of their homeland when the conflict eventually ends.
Lost generation
We have a choice. This could be a lost generation – unqualified for jobs or higher education, their formative years spent living as refugees with huge gaps in their education rather than learning skills they need to thrive in the 21st century. Or they could be helped, by generous international funding to provide their education, to support the overburdened schools in Syria’s neighbouring countries, and to address serious social problems beyond the school gates which are already undermining the futures of millions. The numbers are alarming. Save the Children estimates that 2.8 million Syrian children are not enrolled in education, with two-thirds of refugees in Turkey estimated to be missing school. Over 4,000 schools are closed and 52,000 Syrian teachers have fled the country. Lebanon’s population has increased by a quarter. Schools there, and in Jordan and Turkey, are so overwhelmed by refugee children that they run double shifts – one class in the morning and another in the afternoon. By acting now can we stop a slide into disillusion, disengagement or worse.
Educational chasm
This expanding educational chasm is on the agenda at the Syria Donors’ Conference in London this week, called by the UK, Kuwait, Germany, Norway and the UN. Syria is now the world’s worst humanitarian crisis since World War Two but there’s a $5bn funding gap for this year, which needs filling.
Kuwait previously hosted three funding conferences and now the British Government, which has allocated over $1.5bn to the Syrian crisis since 2012, is taking on that responsibility. Much of the money raised will provide food, shelter and other immediate aid. But, as we reach the fifth anniversary of the conflict, there is still no sign that it will end soon, and the situation for Syrians and communities in neighbouring countries has the potential to cause further instability, despite significant aid contributions. Now the situation has changed. Supporting Syrian youth is a long-term project. On a world average, refugees spend 17 years of their lives in displacement. The current levels of spending on education are nothing like enough. Until now just one percent of humanitarian funding has been spent on education. This week’s conference will seek to secure international funding to ensure that all Syrian and host community children have access to education by 2016/2017.
Whilst access to schooling is imperative, we must also look beyond the school gates when it comes to education funding. Evidence from our work and that of international NGOs points to the importance of education in building individual and community resilience. A resilience that is needed at such difficult times, helping people to cope with their existing situation and eventually progress. But barriers to education exist. Lack of language skills beyond Arabic is a significant barrier to Syrian students. In Lebanon, the British Council is partnering with the EU to teach English and French, so students can study in Lebanon’s multi-lingual schools. In Turkey similar large scale Turkish language programmes are needed to enable access to education. We urge more teaching of foreign languages, to enable displaced students to access education in these countries and earn internationally-recognised qualifications and skills that they need.
Education systems in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey have undertaken a huge task in absorbing the influx of refugees. These countries urgently need support to further strengthen their educations systems, allowing them to continue this vital work. The two-shift teaching system, in Lebanon costs just $10 per pupil per week. Even so, it’s estimated that $500m is needed to properly fund it across the region. The pressures on the systems are there - schools are crowded and teachers are overworked. An important factor keeping children out of school is quite simply a lack of money. Many refugee families have lost everything – home, income, savings. Many are relying on UN support or the generosity of local people and communities. In these circumstances school can be seen as a luxury. Boys are sent out to work. Girls are getting married young – a 2014 UNICEF report said that one in five Syrian brides is under 16. In both cases they tend not to return to school, limiting future prospects. In London this week the international community is gathering to invest in Syria’s young people. Investing in schools that urgently need the funding, and seeking to tackle the poverty and exclusion which prevent children even reaching the school gates.

Swiss cheese
Michael Young/Now Lebanon/February 05/16
The suspension of negotiations in Geneva to end the Syrian conflict represents a major setback for the United Nations. It not only reflects deep mistrust between the Syrian parties themselves, but also between the regional and international backers of the Syrian opposition. Worse, it reflects the Syrian opposition’s doubts about the UN envoy, Staffan de Mistura, who played a key role in preparing the Geneva meetings.
With so much mistrust flying about, what are the chances that if negotiations resume on February 25, as De Mistura intends, they can advance any further than they have until now? If a new round of negotiations is prepared with as little groundwork as was the last round, we should not expect much.
Geneva suffered from three concentric problems. The first is that the Syrian government and its Russian and Iranian allies had no incentive to make humanitarian concessions or interrupt their assaults on civilian areas as the opposition had demanded, thereby facilitating a breakthrough in negotiations. The Syrian regime is making military headway, in the south, in Latakia province, and in Aleppo. Why break the momentum of successful offensives that are allowing it to strengthen its leverage down the road?
Second, while the animosity between the regime and the opposition was always a given, we are now seeing growing suspicion from regional supporters of the Syrian opposition, above all Saudi Arabia and Turkey, of the behavior of a central actor in the Geneva saga, namely the United States.
The Saudis and Turks are those with the weight to push the opposition into making compromises. However, what both feel today is that the Obama administration has been mainly unsympathetic to their interests in the run-up to Geneva. The Turks see the Americans moving closer to the Kurds, and the visit to Kobane last weekend by Brett McGurk, Barack Obama’s envoy to the coalition fighting ISIS, only increased their fears.
As for the Saudis, they are warily watching the increasing coordination between the United States and Russia in Syria, as well as the rapprochement between America and Iran. They recall that it’s the Americans who urged the Syrian opposition to be flexible over Bashar al-Assad’s future, and sense that the administration is not serious about getting rid of the president.
To the Saudis, Geneva must have seemed like an effort to railroad the vulnerable Syrian opposition into a process in which they were likely to lose. The Americans have appeared so eager to arrive at a settlement at any price, that they have come across as willing to accept a bad deal to none at all. And with Russia and Iran holding the strong cards, this is more probable by the day.
A third problem is that doubts have arisen among the Syrian opposition about the intentions of De Mistura. The UN envoy has a mandate from hell trying to bring together different parties that have no desire to deal with each other. However, going ahead with Geneva when nothing had been done about Syrian regime and Russian attacks against civilians was always bound to do one thing only: discredit the opposition delegation in the eyes of many Syrians.
De Mistura now appears more sympathetic to the opposition’s demands that the bombardment of civilians must cease and that humanitarian aid must be secured to areas under siege. This represents implicit recognition on his part that he erred in not making it a basis for the Geneva talks in the first place.
To the Syrian opposition De Mistura was willing to rely on outside pressure to shoehorn them into discussions about which they had deep misgivings. The UN envoy cannot afford to be seen as colluding with the Syrian regime and the Russians, even if the accusation is unfair. His mission depends on it.
As for the Americans, whatever happened to their preferred notion of adopting confidence-building measures to facilitate talks? On Wednesday US Secretary of State John Kerry declared, “The continued assault by Syrian regime forces--enabled by Russian airstrikes--against opposition-held areas, as well as regime and allied militias’ continued besiegement of hundreds of thousands of civilians, have clearly signaled the intention to seek a military solution rather than enable a political one.”
Thank heavens Kerry has discovered the real world, but he has done so too late. Instead of strong-arming the opposition into going to Geneva--ensuring it would be condemned if talks continued while civilians were being killed--the secretary should have backed their legitimate humanitarian demands in his interactions with the Russians. Had he been unable to achieve results, he should have warned De Mistura that Geneva would fail.
The slapdash way in which Geneva was put together was not reassuring. De Mistura and the UN have egg on their face because of their failure to prepare the groundwork to ensure that the negotiations would succeed. The envoy’s next target date later this month seems illusory. By then the Syria regime and its allies may well be in the midst of their long-awaited offensive in Aleppo, which means that talks will be further delayed.
De Mistura might want to chat with Kerry before then. If the Syrian regime and Russia want to impose a military solution, as the secretary now admits, there is not much point negotiating. Assad’s foes realized that from the start, but the Americans forced them to go to Geneva anyway. Now Kerry has changed his mind. Pity the Syrians their reliance on erratic diplomats.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

War is not a picnic
Hassan Al Mustafa/Al Arabiya/February 04/16
The Iraq-Iran war lasted from 1980 until 1988. Those eight years of bloodshed and destruction claimed the lives of about a million people, as well as hundreds of thousands of injured, and others who were either directly or indirectly harmed. Considered the longest military conflict in the 20th century, financial losses amounted to some $400 billion, burdening the budgets of both countries and delaying development and reconstruction for many years. Ongoing repercussions have affected not only Iran and Iraq, but the whole Gulf. If this humanitarian tragedy had been avoided, the region would have enjoyed greater stability and development, thus benefitting directly the people of both countries. Riyadh will not be dragged into a war that some extremists and ignorant people are craving for. Tehran too must exert efforts to avoid escalation. Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has told The Economist that war between his country and Iran would be a “major catastrophe in the region” that “will reflect very strongly on the rest of the world.” He said Riyadh “will not allow such thing,” adding: “Whoever is pushing towards that is somebody who is not in their right mind.”Similarly, Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed said: “In politics, there is no such thing as turning down a mediation offer, and there are no perpetual differences. Iran will always remain a neighbor, and we should deal with it based on that. However, can we restore ties with Iran to what they used to be without addressing the issues between us?”
Diplomacy
One can understand from both stances that politics must be handled with a reasonable, flexible, non-impulsive mind that puts national interests, regional peace and security over hatred and hostility. A politician looks for solutions to existing problems diplomatically and peacefully, resorting to force only as a last resort. In his article in Asharq al-Awsat on Jan. 5, Abdulrahman al-Rashed said the ongoing crisis between Riyadh and Tehran is “without diplomats or mediators,” adding that “nothing is more important than diplomats during dangerous crises,” and “in this void, the already significant Saudi-Iranian conflict will escalate and will increase tension in the region.”Diplomacy is the least costly way out of a crisis, but for it to work, there must be common ground between the opposing parties. Trying to portray the Saudi-Iranian conflict as caused by rioters and mobs in Tehran undermines the situation. It is akin to jumping to conclusions, which postpones the solution to a problem that will worsen. Riyadh will not be dragged into a war that some extremists and ignorant people are craving for. Tehran too must exert efforts to avoid escalation and put forward goodwill initiatives to improve bilateral relations. Agreements must be built on mutual respect, equality, non-interference in internal affairs, and non-exploitation of sectarian conflict. All of the above is in the interest of regional stability, which is necessary to tackle extremism and fundamentalist groups.

Alawi Sect Showing Signs Of Opposition To Assad Regime
By: M. Terdiman/MEMRI/February 04/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/02/04/m-terdimanmemri-alawi-sect-showing-signs-of-opposition-to-assad-regime/
http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/8989.htm
Introduction
In late November 2015, the "Upcoming Syria" movement was established in Istanbul. This is the first 'Alawi movement that opposes the Bashar Al-Assad regime in Syria. The movement's founders claim that for years, Assad tied the fate of the 'Alawi sect with his own in order to guarantee its loyalty, despite the fact that not all of its members supported him. The new movement aspires to collaborate with the Syrian revolution so as to ensure the 'Alawis' safety and their part in the future social and governmental makeup of the country.
Upcoming Syria has received the support of Assad's rival Turkey, and of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, which aspires to show that it represents all Syrian sects, thus alleviating minority fears regarding the post-Assad era in the country.
Concurrently, recent Arab media reports claim that officials in the 'Alawi sect have been in touch with various regional countries such as Turkey and Israel in an attempt to obtain guarantees for the safety of the sect in the period after Assad.
The establishment of the first 'Alawi oppositionist organ and the reports on efforts by sect officials to secure the 'Alawis' safety in the post-Assad era do not take place in a vacuum. Back in 2014 there were early signs of bitterness and criticism towards the regime within the 'Alawi sect, which were expressed on social media and also in articles published by 'Alawi writers.[1] Another expression of this disillusionment can be seen in the August 2015 'Alawi protests that took place in the Latakia and Tartus areas.
It should be mentioned that, despite the current wave of discontent, it appears as though the 'Alawi sect and the Upcoming Syria movement do not constitute a real threat to the regime; rather, it seems that Assad has thus far managed to contain the criticism emanating from his own sect and maintain its low profile.
It should also be mentioned that it is difficult to estimate what portion of the sect is loyal to the regime and what portion opposes it. However, these are still undoubtedly significant developments.
This report will discuss the Upcoming Syria movement and additional signs of displeasure with the Assad regime among members of the 'Alawi sect.
'Upcoming Syria' – The First 'Alawi Opposition Body
On November 21-22, 2015, the founding conference of Upcoming Syria - the first group of 'Alawi political oppositionists - was held in Istanbul. The conference opened with the singing of the movement anthem, titled "A Free Homeland Unites Us." The movement is headed by 'Alawi oppositionists who live outside of Syria, some of whom are members of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces.
Aspiring To Create 'Alawi Leaders And Add 'Alawi Voices To The Revolution
The movement's founder is Fouad Hamira, one of Syria's most prominent drama writers, who has a journalism degree from Damascus University. Hamira was arrested by Syrian security forces in mid-2013 after criticizing the regime. After his release he was exiled to Jordan and moved to Paris in December 2014.[2]
Fouad Hamira at the founding conference of the Upcoming Syria movement in Istanbul (image: Facebook.com/UpComingSyria, November 21, 2015)
Alongside Hamira, the movement is also led by Raghda Hassan, a writer and member of the outlawed Syrian Communist Labour Party, who served as an advisor for the head of the National Coalition's interim government. Hassan, who is in charge of the movement's public affairs, was arrested by Syrian security forces in the 1990s for her membership in the Communist Labour Party. In 2010, upon her release from prison, she left for Beirut, briefly returned to Syria, and ultimately moved to Turkey.[3] The movement's spokesman is 'Oubab Khalil who, until recently, managed the National Coalition's Washington office.[4]
Upcoming Syria logo ( Facebook.com/UpComingSyria, November 17, 2015)
On the eve of the founding conference, the movement launched a Facebook page announcing the conference and the movement's goals, which also featured a promotional video.[5]
According to Fouad Hamira, he had been working to establish the movement since the onset of the revolution in 2011,[6] and it seems that its establishment at this point came in response to the increasing international efforts to solve the Syria crisis.
The movement's leaders describe it as an 'Alawi body meant to produce new leaders for the sect and to shape its political position, but stress that it is open to all Syrians. Speaking at the founding conference, Hamira addressed 'Alawis and expressed a desire "to refute the lie of the Bashar Al-Assad regime and convince them... that toppling [this] regime would first and foremost benefit the 'Alawis."[7] Hamira said further that one of the movement's goals was "to produce new leaders for the sect after the Assad family spent fifty years emptying the sect of its leaders, including its religious leaders, whom it transformed into its intelligence agents. We strive to create a cadre of new leaders and prepare them for the post-regime phase... We hope we can bring new added value to the Syrian revolution."[8]
According to him, "it is this regime and many of its supporters that brought about the [current] violence in Syria, and it is the role of all of us to convene here against those who still cause the death of Syrians. Therefore, the [Upcoming Syria] current calls on all to unite their political views and formulate realistic and unified positions of the Syrian oppositionist voice. The current's doors are open to all Syrians so that we can iron out our differences and later reach an agreement on presenting a political solution to the revolution. This regime will not be toppled by any particular sect or party... We have common values that we must share with all political forces and blocs that strive to find a solution for [the sake of] Syria and all Syrians."[9]
Raghda Hassan said at the conference: "This current was established to redefine the political view of the 'Alawi sect, to provide an answer to the common question on the Syrian street regarding the absence of the 'Alawi voice from the revolutionary arena, and to be the address for members of the 'Alawi sect involved in revolutionary action."[10] On another occasion she said: "We belong to the 'Alawi sect in terms of society and culture, but politically, we belong to any national Syrian plan that protects the multiculturalism and richness of the Syrian identity. Any solution that does not accept the revolution's goals as a fundamental condition cannot be legitimate after the extremely heavy price that the Syrian people has paid and continues to pay."[11]
'Alawi Sect Must Correct The Historic Mistake Of Supporting The Assad Regime
The closing statement of the conference condemned the Assad regime and its allies and called for reviving the original Syrian revolution and establishing a civil, democratic and pluralistic state. The statement reads: "Some Syrians who are members of the 'Alawi sect called to establish the Upcoming Syria current so that it would be a voice from the heart of the 'Alawi sect – [a voice] that does not presume to represent [the sect] but rather addresses it out of an understanding of its feelings and interests, and which attempts to correct the historic injustice done to the social, ideological, and political makeup of the sect in order to reformulate its ties with Syrians around it. In light of this, the current stresses the following:
"1. 'Alawis are a fundamental component in the Syria fabric that – like the other sects in the Syrian people – aspires to be liberated from tyranny and hopes to live in dignity and liberty. However, a number of objective and subjective factors have motivated members of the sect to become fuel for the war [machine] of the Assad regime and its allies... against Syrians demanding freedom, justice, and equality. These factors include:
"a. The method of marginalization and disrespect for [people's] intelligence that was employed by the Assad regime and its allies against the Syrian people in general and the 'Alawi sect in particular has led to the sidelining of the role of the important leaders and political, ideological, and even religious sources of authority in Syrian society as a whole and the 'Alawi sect in particular. This has caused Assad, his allies, and interested parties alongside him to become the sole source of authority for the sect on all levels, causing the sect to be perceived as sheltering in the shadow of the Assad regime against any threat to its interests or existence.
"b. For over fifty years, the Assad regime and its allies have manipulated the sectarian, tribal, and familial ties in Syrian society, and have exploited them to realize the interests [of the regime] and [ensure] legitimacy for it to remain [in power]. As a result, [the sense of] belonging and national awareness [of citizens] was damaged, leading to a sense of persecution [among various sects]. The 'Alawi sect was harmed the most from this devastating action since [the regime] intentionally tied [the 'Alawis'] interest and continued existence to Assad remaining in power.
"c. The increasingly sectarian discourse among extremist factions in the armed opposition played a crucial role in motivating the majority of the sect to count on the Assad regime, not in order to defend him but rather out of the self-delusion that he was protecting [the sect's] existence, its life, and its survival. Many of them felt as though the Assad regime protected them and that its ouster meant their destruction, or at the very least, their marginalization.
"d. The sectarian discourse that insists on portraying any Sunni as a legitimate son of the revolution and any 'Alawi as a legitimate son of the regime merely serves Assad and his allies and distorts the image of the revolution on the local, regional, and international levels.
"All this, as well as other factors and circumstances, led some members of the 'Alawi sect to make this mistake [of relying on Assad]. It should be stressed that admitting a mistake does not mean returning to the past, but rather preparing for a new stage meant to correct the path and the positions with the help of all Syrians. This admission is a chance to examine the reasons and conditions that led to this mistake and its results, in order to formulate true solutions for the problem, and to attempt to bring the sect back from its dependence on Assad and his allies.
Assad To Blame For Current Situation; We Strive For A Unified, Civil, Pluralist, Democratic State
"2. Based on the above, we in the Upcoming Syria current stress that Assad and his regime bear responsibility for the state of destruction, ruin, and death the country has reached. They are chiefly responsible for the military chaos and for the foreign intervention in all parts of the country, and Assad is the one who 'invited' violence by insisting on security and military solutions, and was initially responsible for the escalation of sectarian action as a result of his sectarian crimes, whose intended purpose was to bring us to the current state.
"3. The Upcoming Syria current regards any foreign presence on Syrian soil to be clear and open occupation, whether [it is an actual presence of] military forces or [is achieved] by assisting [various] forces [in Syria] that are alien to the country, its residents, the goals of its revolution, or anything Syrians aspire for in their homeland.
"4. We cannot regard anyone who carries weapons against the oppression and crimes of Assad as a rebel. Furthermore, Syria must not become [divided into] influence zones [ruled by] chaos, weapons, or warlords. Therefore, it is the duty [of Syrians] to regain [control] of the moral compass that caused the outbreak of the revolution and define in detail [the necessary] revolutionary action, in order to distance and set it apart from criminal action.
"5. In order to prevent further deterioration of the state into sectarian war, whose buds are clearly showing, and in order to prevent Syria from becoming the arena for a struggle between Islamic schools, ethnicities, or sects, we in the Upcoming Syria current strive to restore the [original] goals of the revolution which are: Establishing a civil, pluralist, democratic state; rejecting all partition plans;[12] ensuring the unity of [Syria's] territory and people; and ensuring the Syrian identity as a criterion for national belonging."[13]
Founding conference of the Upcoming Syria Stream (Source: Qasioun.net, November 21, 2015)
No To Negotiations; Syrian Regime Will Be Toppled Only By Military Means
Ahead of the negotiations that are scheduled to in late January 2016 in Geneva between regime and opposition delegations, Fouad Hamira wrote, in an article that presumably reflects the position of his movement, that the only way to oust the Assad regime is by defeating it militarily: "The claim that [we can] negotiate with the Assad regime about its own downfall is silly. If the regime is willing to go, why has it been destroying the country for five years? And why has it killed about a million Syrians? Obviously, the regime will not negotiate its own downfall, especially considering that it is not being forced to negotiate on this basis [and] following the [military] achievements it has made recently with Russian and Iranian help...
"The opposition has two [options]: allowing the out of the question – or follow the principles of chess and not negotiate about the fate of the king. We are convinced that the regime... will never enter negotiations, under any heading, that will lead to its downfall. Therefore, the only remaining option is to act to topple it by military means. The Assad regime insists on taking the path of Qadhafi [i.e., fighting to the death], and this is what the opposition must realize. Bashar Al-Assad will be toppled only in the same way Qadhafi [was toppled].
"We realize that the international community is pushing for a political solution, but the opposition must convince it, by diplomatic means, that there is no choice but to topple the regime militarily. [The opposition must also convince it] and that the responsibility for ending all the tyrannical [measures taken by] the regime in its war against the Syrians rests with the Syrian people alone. I hope the opposition's slogan from now on will be 'no to negotiations,' and that everyone will realize that the toppling of the regime will not come about through negotiations but only by defeating it on the battlefield."[14]
The Current Is Close To The National Coalition But Has Not Joined It
So far, the Upcoming Syria movement has not officially joined the National Coalition, but there seem to be close ties and cooperation between them. The movement needs the coalition's recognition because Western elements still regard the latter as the main representative of the Syrian opposition, and Hamira has in fact expressed willingness to join the coalition providing that his movement has "a decisive role in political decision-making and its presence is not of secondary [importance]."[15]
It should be mentioned that before the movement's founding, Hamira directed harsh criticism at the National Coalition for excluding the 'Alawi sect, yet expressed a willingness to cooperate with it. In April 2015, he said: "The 'Alawi sect in Syria is caught between the flames of the regime, which is not defending it, and the flames of its [non-'Alawi] compatriots, who do not accept it... I condemn the actions of the Syrian opposition, [both] the armed and the political opposition, that has not extended its hand to help [the 'Alawis], even though 80% of them do not support Bashar Al-Assad... The 'Alawis are not represented in the revolutionary bodies and nobody is encouraging them to [join them]." He added: "The 'Alawis must now have a correct understanding of the revolution, and the opposition must open up channels of communication with the 'Alawis... Had it been up to the ['Alawi] sect, it would have crushed Bashar Al-Assad, but [it is unable to do so because] it is besieged by the opposition."[16]
At the same time, the National Coalition and its backer, Turkey, need the Upcoming Syria movement. They consider its establishment a moral achievement – especially ahead of the possible renewal of the political process, and in light of claims that the National Coalition does not represent all Syrians, and also given the fears for the fate of minorities in Syria, especially the 'Alawis, in case the Assad regime collapses. These considerations underlie Turkey's support of the Upcoming Syria movement, as expressed by its hosting of the movement's founding conference in Istanbul. The conference was attended by senior figures from the National Coalition, including its chairman, Khaled Khoja. In his speech at the conference, Khoja underscored the importance of the new 'Alawi movement, saying: "The challenge facing us Syrians, of building our national identity, has become one of our most important challenges and struggles. This [Upcoming Syria] current, and the other political blocs and civil society organizations, are meant to build this identity, which the dictatorial barbaric regime caused us to lose... This blessed conference enriches the Syrian opposition. A piece of the mosaic was missing, but now [the mosaic] will be complete thanks to the presence of this important sect, the 'Alawi sect... There is a regional and global inclination to accelerate the political process. We are facing a complicated political process that will take place in parallel to the ongoing military situation on the ground. Hence, we wish to unite the political forces and the political stance of the opposition at large. The founding of this current [reflects the] rapprochement [between us] and the fact that we share [similar] political views..."[17]
The Coalition's secretary-general, Yahya Maktabi, likewise welcomed the movement's founding, calling it "an important step in the face of the upcoming challenges and hardships," but clarified that "the [Upcoming Syria] current has yet to submit an official request to become part of the National Coalition."[18]
National Coalition Chairman Khaled Khoja (left) with Upcoming Syria founder Fouad Hamira at the movement's founding conference (image: tahrirnews.com, November 22, 2015)
Opposition Members Criticize The Current's Founding
In contrast to the National Coalition, which welcomed the founding of the Upcoming Syria movement, other opposition members harshly criticized the movement and its leaders. 'Alawi Syrian oppositionist Habib Salah accused Fouad Hamira of collaborating with the Syrian regime and of attempting to perpetuate the 'Alawi rule in Syria in the era following Assad. In an article he published, he wrote of Hamira: "[He] is actually a mercenary! A son of the regime! He does not represent anyone!... Fouad Hamira is not interested in the Syrian problem! He is depraved, from a national and revolutionary point of view, and a hedonist on the social level!..." Salah explained that the founders of Upcoming Syria feared that Assad's downfall would harm the 'Alawi sect and were trying to provide an 'Alawi alternative in order to preserve the sect's privileged position.[19]
Jihad Makdissi, the former spokesman for the Syrian foreign ministry, who defected, came out against the founding of an 'Alawi opposition current in a post on his Facebook page. Addressing Hamira, he said: "Your intentions are good, my friend... but the minority... cannot by itself assure the [other] minorities, either by [holding] a conference nor by [founding] a new current!... The Syrian struggle must remain a struggle for rights, duties, honor and full citizenship, not a struggle of sects and groups."[20]
Oppositionist journalist and activist Ahmad Salal, who lives in Paris, wrote in a similar vein in an article titled "An 'Alawi Current without 'Alawis," which was posted on an oppositionist website. He too came out against the founding of a separate 'Alawi oppositionist stream, and called on 'Alawi intellectuals to formulate national, rather than sectarian, plans. He stated that, contra to Hamira's claims, most 'Alawis cooperate with the regime against the Sunni majority.[21]
Reports: 'Alawi Figures Attempting To Obtain Guarantees For Day After Assad
Concurrently with the establishment of the 'Alawi oppositionist movement, recent reports in the Arab media claim that prominent 'Alawi figures are holding contacts with Turkey and Israel in an attempt to obtain guarantees for the day after Assad's ouster.
On November 9, 2015, a few days before the renewal of the talks in Vienna on a political settlement in Syria, the oppositionist Syrian website Orient News reported that the 'Alawi Syrian poet Adonis, along with representatives from the 'Alawi Council,[22] held Russian-brokered meetings with Israeli officials in Israel, followed by meetings with Turkish officials in Turkey. The report claims that the meetings were meant to obtain guarantees regarding the 'Alawi sect if it agreed to relinquish power in Syria, and to secure the future of relations between the 'Alawis in Syria and in Turkey.[23]
According to a November 22, 2015 report in the London daily Al-Arab, 'Alawi officers and high ranking officials were in touch with international and regional elements, and stressed to them that the 'Alawis do not oppose Assad's stepping down at the end of the transitional phase
in order to enable a reconciliation with the other sects. The daily cited "an 'Alawi source living in London" as saying: "We are willing to relinquish Assad in return for guarantees that prevent revenge against the sect after he steps down... We support him stepping down after the formation of a transitional government." The source added that only a minority in the 'Alawi sect still insists that Assad remain in power, out of its own narrow interests. According to the source, many 'Alawi youths were killed in the fighting in recent years, and therefore the majority of the sect supports a political solution that will end the bloodshed and protect the 'Alawi minority, even if this requires Assad to step down.[24]
It should be noted, however, that these reports rely on biased sources and are meant to portray the Assad regime as losing its grip on its own sect.
'Alawis Protest Against The Regime In Latakia, Tartus
As stated above, signs of bitterness and criticism of the regime within the 'Alawi sect appeared as early as 2014, due to the heavy price 'Alawis paid for their association with Assad and because the regime took their support for granted. This displeasure was expressed on social media and in articles published by 'Alawi writers. In August 2015, the criticism even escalated to widespread protests in Latakia and Tartus – 'Alawi cities that are considered regime strongholds.
The protests were triggered by reports that Hassan Al-Sheikh, an 'Alawi Syrian air defense colonel, had been murdered by Bashar Al-Assad's cousin Suleiman.[25] The Al-Sheikh family demanded the execution of Suleiman Al-Assad, and, in an attempt to alleviate tension, regime media reported that he had been arrested. However, subsequent reports of his release sparked protests in Latakia on August 6. Al-Arabiya TV reported that after 'Alawi religious leaders intervened and told the Al-Sheikh family that the sect's interests and security came before their own demand for justice, the victim's brother recanted his accusations against Suleiman Al-Assad, bringing the protests to an end.[26]
On August 10, 2015, at the height of the Latakia protests, 'Alawis also launched protests against the regime in Tartus, demanding to break the siege laid by ISIS on the Kweiris airbase in the Aleppo area and rescue the protestors' relatives and retrieve the bodies of the dead.[27]
Families of soldiers besieged in Kweiris demonstrate outside the office of the Tartus governor (Image: Alsouria.net, August 22, 2015)
The regime did not remain apathetic in the face of these protests, especially since the siege of the airbase was a military and morale defeat for the Syrian army. After fierce efforts, the regime managed to break the siege and rescue those trapped in the airbase on November 10, 2015, thus meeting the protester's demands.
* M. Terdiman is a research fellow at MEMRI.
Endnotes:
[1] See MEMRI Special Dispatch No. 5702, Syrian 'Alawis Slam Assad Regime For Its Treatment Of 'Alawi Sect, April 2, 2014.
[2] Sirajpress.com, December 12, 2014.
[3] Jadl.org, January 30, 2015; All4syria.info, May 10, 2012.
[4] Syrianews.com, January 7, 2015.
[5] Facebook.com/UpComingSyria, November 19, 2015.
[6] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), November 21, 2015.
[7] Alarabiya.net, November 22, 2015.
[8] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), November 21, 2015.
[9] Qasioun.net, November 21, 2015.
[10] Rozana.fm, November 21, 2015.
[11] Facebook.com/UpComingSyria, November 16, 2015.
[12] This refers to the partition of Syria along sectarian and ethnic lines: an 'Alawi statelet including the coast, Damascus and a narrow strip connecting them; a Druze statelet in the southeast of the country, a Kurdish one in the northeast, etc.
[13] Ugarit-news.com, November 22, 2015.
[14] Orient-news-net, January 9, 2016.
[15] Enabbaladi.org, November 24, 2015.
[16] All4syria.info, April 21, 2016.
[17] Quasioun.net, November 21, 2015.
[18] Enabbaladi.org, November 24, 2015.
[19] All4Syria.info, November 23, 2015.
[20] Facebook.com/makdissim November 22, 2015.
[21] Orient-news.net, December 12, 2015.
[22] The 'Alawi Council is reportedly a group of respectable military, religious, and intellectual 'Alawi figures that has been active since 1963 and was a crucial component of the Syrian regime, with whom Hafez Al-Assad routinely consulted on all his decisions (Orient-news.net, November 9, 2015). Russia's military attaché to Syria in 2000, Gen. Vladimir Fyodorov, attested to its existence, but no 'Alawi sources have confirmed it. Rozana.fm, March 26, 2015.
[23] Orient-news.net, November 9, 2015.
[24] Al-Arab (London), November 22, 2015.
[25] Sirajpress.com, August 7, 2015.
[26] Alarabiya.net, August 19, 2015.
[27] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London), Orient-news.com, August 11, 2015.

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