LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
February 07/16

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

Bible Quotations For Today
The Cana Wedding Miracle of turning the water into wine
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 02/01-11: "On the third day there was a wedding in Cana of Galilee, and the mother of Jesus was there. Jesus and his disciples had also been invited to the wedding. When the wine gave out, the mother of Jesus said to him, ‘They have no wine.’ And Jesus said to her, ‘Woman, what concern is that to you and to me? My hour has not yet come.’His mother said to the servants, ‘Do whatever he tells you.’Now standing there were six stone water-jars for the Jewish rites of purification, each holding twenty or thirty gallons. Jesus said to them, ‘Fill the jars with water.’ And they filled them up to the brim. He said to them, ‘Now draw some out, and take it to the chief steward.’ So they took it. When the steward tasted the water that had become wine, and did not know where it came from (though the servants who had drawn the water knew), the steward called the bridegroom and said to him, ‘Everyone serves the good wine first, and then the inferior wine after the guests have become drunk. But you have kept the good wine until now.’Jesus did this, the first of his signs, in Cana of Galilee, and revealed his glory; and his disciples believed in him."

Do not, for the sake of food, destroy the work of God.
Letter to the Romans 14/14-23: "I know and am persuaded in the Lord Jesus that nothing is unclean in itself; but it is unclean for anyone who thinks it unclean. If your brother or sister is being injured by what you eat, you are no longer walking in love. Do not let what you eat cause the ruin of one for whom Christ died. So do not let your good be spoken of as evil. For the kingdom of God is not food and drink but righteousness and peace and joy in the Holy Spirit. The one who thus serves Christ is acceptable to God and has human approval. Let us then pursue what makes for peace and for mutual edification. Do not, for the sake of food, destroy the work of God. Everything is indeed clean, but it is wrong for you to make others fall by what you eat; it is good not to eat meat or drink wine or do anything that makes your brother or sister stumble. The faith that you have, have as your own conviction before God. Blessed are those who have no reason to condemn themselves because of what they approve. But those who have doubts are condemned if they eat, because they do not act from faith; for whatever does not proceed from faith is sin."


Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 07/16
Is the Lebanese presidency also held hostage/Mohamed Chebarro/Al Arabiya/February 06/16
Five reasons why Iran-Saudi conflict won't escalate/Ali Omidi/Al-Monitor/February 06/16
The Ayatollah Looks East and Finds a Void/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/February 06/16
The Syrian Settlement – Principles of Geneva 1 or the Concessions of Geneva 2/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al Awsat/February 06/16
Saudi boots on the ground in Syria/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/February 06/16
Under the watchful Western eyes, Syria unravels/Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/February 06/16
Refugees as entrepreneurs, but where are work permits/Yara al-Wazir//Al Arabiya/February 06/16

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on February 07/16
Is the Lebanese presidency also held hostage?
Hizbullah Official Says Party Will Boycott Next Parliament Session
Report: Lebanese Army Ready to Counter Threats against Arsal
Nasrallah Expected to Give Speech Two Days After Commemoration Anniversary of Hariri
Moqbel Stresses Need for Advances to Supply Army Weapons

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 07/16
Iran: Saudi Won't Dare Send Troops to Syria
Syria Regime Warns against any Foreign Ground 'Aggression'
U.S. welcomes Saudi anti-ISIS troop proposal
Syrian govt not serious about political solution: rebel leader
Kerry: Russia must start ceasefire in Syria
As Syria Rebels Face Rout, Allies Saudi, Turkey May Send Troops
Turkey seizes unsafe boats intended for refugees: reports
Al-Qaeda mourns death of top Yemen leader
U.N. chief: 34 groups now allied to ISIS extremists
Turkish border crossing closed as Syrians flee
Iran and Russia in first major falling-out over Syrian war and Assad
Libya faces hurdles to quick action against ISIS
U.S. releases photos tied to Iraq detainee abuse
Ban ‘ashamed’ over Israel-Palestine deadlock
Pakistan Wants as Many Taliban Groups as Possible to Join Talks
Survivors Tell of Quake Horror in Taiwan

Links From Jihad Watch Site for February 07/16
Egypt: Coptic Christian tombs are being turned into “garbage dumps,” laments Christian leader
Melkite Greek Catholic Archbishop to West: “Why are your bishops silent on a threat that is yours today as well?”
Raymond Ibrahim: The Islamic Rape and Murder of Christian Boys
Muslim bomber sucked out of plane may have hid explosives in laptop
Dearborn: Muslim plotted Islamic State mass murder attacks on church
At UN, Pakistan calls on world to combat not jihad terrorism, but “Islamophobia”
200 million women have undergone genital mutilation — 70 million more than previously thought
UK: Somali Muslims living by their own laws
Russia: Muslim migrants grope and molest women, get beaten up
DHS ordered agent to scrub records of 100s of Muslims with terror ties
Austria: Muslim migrant brutally rapes 10-year-old boy in Vienna pool
Obama: Islamic State says they’re “holy warriors who speak for Islam. I refuse to give them legitimacy.”

Is the Lebanese presidency also held hostage?
Mohamed Chebarro/Al Arabiya/February 06/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/02/06/mohamed-chebarro-is-the-lebanese-presidency-also-held-hostage/
Lebanese people like explaining to foreigners that their country’s existence has defied every logic since its inception. Its pluralism and constitutional democracy is unique, its dysfunctional democracy is a case study in every political science curriculum, and its weak economy but strong banking sector has puzzled researchers. Moreover, Lebanon continues to exist with a fractured government, a paralyzed parliament and a vacant presidency for nearly two years. The seat of the presidency has been held hostage to domestic and regional calculations of Hezbollah, the militia turned political party financed and armed by Iran. The party kept quiet when Christian and Muslim rivals recently agreed to nominate two of Hezbollah’s most trusted allies – General Michel Aoun and Suleiman Frangieh – for the position of the president. They had formed the 8th March pro-Syria and Iran coalition in Parliament with the help of Hezbollah.
Once again Hezbollah’s reaction demonstrated that the party’s calculations and interests lie far beyond the state of Lebanon and its borders. Hezbollah prefers the role of shadowy militia that directly or indirectly controls all the strings of the “fictitious” state of Lebanon rather than being accountable to its precarious yet sometime functioning democracy.
Lebanon continues to exist with a fractured government, a paralyzed parliament and a vacant presidency for nearly two years
The president’s office has been vacant, we were once told, because of the political differences between pro and anti-Syrian forces, and later because the Christian leadership failed to field a candidate. The Lebanese national covenant of 1946, agreed upon by its founders, stated that the top three posts in the country are to be distributed along religious and sectarian lines. So the president is Christian, the speaker is Shiite Muslim and the prime minister is Sunni Muslim. Recently the anti-Syrian, anti-Iranian and anti-Hezbollah elements in Lebanon approved two Christian leaders as their candidates for the presidency. One of them is Suleiman Frangieh, a staunch ally of Syria’s embattled president Assad. The second is the previously anti Syrian ex-army General Michel Aoun. General Aoun spent years exiled in France. Once back in Lebanon after the assassination of former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, he allied himself and his movement to Hezbollah’s 8th March Movement. In doing so, General Aoun managed to split the Lebanese Christian voices by embracing Hezbollah’s anti-Israeli doctrine. This gave the Shiite militia Hezbollah a Christian ally that legitimized the party’s agenda inspired by Iran’s Islamic revolution. The Tehran regime’s sole goal, it seems, has been to win back its influence in the region after the ouster of the Shah in 1979, and to spread a quasi-Islamic revolution that would ensure Iran is supreme and the main ‘hegemon’ in the Arab region.
A series of events suggests how Hezbollah managed to hold the presidency hostage – after holding the Lebanese people hostage to its adventures in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and beyond. These events demonstrate that national institutions in Lebanon are dead unless they are helpful in advancing the party’s agenda.
Hezbollah’s agenda
The first event was the Lebanese military tribunal’s decision to release Michel Samaha, ex minister and politician close to 8th March pro-Iran and Syria fronts. Samaha was found guilty of carrying in his car dozens of readymade bombs from Damascus to Lebanon. He admitted to hiring, at the request of Assad, a middleman tasked with planting bombs to assassinate Lebanese religious and political figures in order to stoke sectarian violence in the country. The court’s decision points to the death of justice in Lebanon and suggests that it is an organ that answers only to Hezbollah and its patrons.
The second example is the mysterious kidnapping of five Czech citizens who were reportedly holidaying in the land of the Cedars. Miraculously, after six months in detention, they were released. There was no word about the kidnappers or their condition. Czech Republic sent a plane to recover its freed citizens. Surprisingly a man, who was in custody in Prague and was due to be handed to the U.S., was released. The middleman was an arms dealer with alleged connections to Hezbollah. He was released from custody despite an arrest and extradition warrant issued against him by the U.S. government.
The stinking garbage issue as another example. The government surely has enough money in its coffers to build one or two incinerators to dispose the population refuse and ensure a semi-hygienic state after rubbish dumps reached maximum capacity around July last year. But even a small success as garbage disposal policy goes through Hezbollah and its political calculations. Hezbollah has the monopoly on success in Lebanon and the fractured political class must not even be seen to succeed on an issue as mundane as cleaning the streets. The most recent example is former prime minister Saad Hariri and Samir Geagea trying to nominate candidates for presidency only to be vetoed by Hezbollah. According to me, Hariri and Geagea were trying to preserve the last of the disappearing Lebanese “state” by calling for the election of Hezbollah’s natural Christian allies, Frangieh and Aoun. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s speech, days after Geagea’s surprise nomination of his arch rival Aoun for president, exposed one basic truth – the presidency has also been held hostage.  Nasrallah spelled it out clearly when he said that the time has not come yet to elect a new president. He simply reiterated that the country, its people and what is left of the organs of the state, are hostage to precarious regional Iranian interests, and so is the seat of the presidency in Lebanon..

Hizbullah Official Says Party Will Boycott Next Parliament Session
Naharnet/February 06/16/Hizbullah official Hussein Khalil said on Saturday that the party's lawmakers will only attend the parliament session aimed at electing a president next week if an agreement is reached to elect its candidate the founder of the Free Patriotic Movement MP Michel Aoun for the post. “When an agreement is reached on the election of Gen. Aoun as president, then we will be the first to arrive at the parliament to elect him,” said Khalil after a meeting with Aoun. A Hizbullah delegation visited the Change and Reform bloc head MP Aoun marking ten years since the party and the FPM signed their famous Memorandum of Understanding. The visit comes as the battle for the top state post heats up ahead of a parliament session next week aimed at filling the 20-month vacuum. “A delegation from Hizbullah will visit Rabieh today to meet with the Change and Reform bloc head MP Michel Aoun,” said al-Joumhouria. The delegation is comprised of Hizbullah leader's political assistant Hussein Khalil, Hizbullah's top security official Wafiq Safa, Industry Minister Hussein al-Hajj Hassan and politburo members Mahmoud Qmati and Moustafa Hajj Ali, added the daily. Reports have said that extensive meetings will be held in the next two days between Hizbullah, Aoun and the March 8 camp allies to take the appropriate decision ahead of Monday's meeting. A parliamentary session is scheduled to take place on February 8 to fill the vacuum at the presidential post following the end of the term of President Michel Suleiman ended in May 2014. Conflicts between the rival March 8 and March 14 camps have thwarted all attempts aiming at electing a successor. Aoun, Marada leader MP Suleiman Franjieh are two candidates for the post.

Report: Lebanese Army Ready to Counter Threats against Arsal
Naharnet/February 06/16/Military sources slammed media reports claiming that the situation in the northeastern border town of Arsal is deteriorating and assured that the situation is fully under control, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Saturday. “The army is closely watching the security situation inside the town of Arsal and its outskirts. It is carrying out preemptive operations to counter sources of danger,” the source told the daily on condition of anonymity. It strongly denied reports alleging that the situation is crumbling down. The source added that the army is ready to counter any threat whether it came from the Islamic State group or other, it said: “The military puts plans and takes into consideration all the possibilities in case of any developments. It is ready to face the IS or any other group that thinks of approaching the town of Arsal or even attempt to implement a breach.” Highlighting the latest army operation in Arsal's Wadi al-Araneb, the source said it came after thorough monitoring of the terrorist group and that the operation was carried out without any cooperation with foreign intelligence apparatus. On Wednesday the army carried out a preemptive attack on militants taking the Lebanese-Syrian border as a refuge and killed six Islamic State militants and arrested 16 others in its biggest operation against the extremist group on the outskirts of the town of Arsal. The arrested suspects have told investigators that the terrorists were plotting an attack on the army similar to the 2014 assault that left scores of policemen and troops dead and injured.

Nasrallah Expected to Give Speech Two Days After Commemoration Anniversary of Hariri
Naharnet/February 06/16/Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah will likely make a televised appearance which reports predicted will take place on February 16, two days after the commemoration of the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Saturday. “Nasrallah will make a televised appearance soon to mark Hizbullah's Martyrs Day,” said the daily. Although the party celebrates this memory yearly, but a date has not been officially specified yet, it added. Citing unnamed sources, the newspaper said without elaborating that Nasrallah's speech will take place on February 16 and that it will drive the attention in terms of the new participants in the ceremony. In his speech late in January, Nasrallah addressed the thorny file of the presidency where he renewed adherence to the nomination of Change and Reform bloc head MP Michel Aoun, without hiding cordiality to the Marada chief MP Suleiman Franjieh. He had said: “Even if another dear friend is nominated, it will not push me to renounce my ethical commitment to General Aoun, and this does not mean that (Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman) Franjieh does not deserve to become president.” Lebanon marks the eleventh anniversary of slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was assassinated on February 14, 2005.

Moqbel Stresses Need for Advances to Supply Army Weapons
Naharnet/February 06/16/Defense Minister Samir Moqbel stressed on Saturday the need to take out a loan in order to support the Lebanese army, noting that the military cannot be asked to fight terrorism with a shortage in ammunition. “I understand the fiscal deficit that the State is having. But it is necessary to open credits to back the army,” said Moqbel after a meeting he held with PM Tammam Salam at the Grand Serail. “We cannot ask the military to counter terrorism while there is shortage in ammunition,” he added. “Opening letters of credit to purchase ammunition for the army was the main subject of discussion with PM Salam and a day earlier with Speaker Nabih Berri,” stressed the Minister, noting that the issue is delicate and must be addressed differently from other state matters.“We cannot be indifferent to 8,000 soldiers deployed on the border of Arsal through Ras Baalbek in harsh weather conditions and sub-zero temperatures,” he exclaimed. The army deploys widely on the northeastern border town of Arsal and has waged several battles with extremists attempting to infiltrate the country. Army Commander Jean Qahwaji revealed on Friday that he asked U.S. officials during a visit to Washington to speed up the delivery of equipment that the army had bought from the U.S., mainly six A-20 Super Tucano planes and Hellfire air-to-ground missiles. The last time Lebanon received military aid from the U.S. was in October 2015. The shipment provided the army with 50 Hellfire missiles and 560 artillery rounds, including some precision munitions. This represents $8.6 million worth of U.S. security assistance to Lebanon and boosts the army's ability to secure Lebanon’s borders against violent extremists.Since 2004, America has provided over $1.3 billion dollars in security assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces, including both training and equipment.

Nasrallah Expected to Give Speech Two Days After Commemoration Anniversary of Hariri
Naharnet/February 06/16 /Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah will likely make a televised appearance which reports predicted will take place on February 16, two days after the commemoration of the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Saturday. “Nasrallah will make a televised appearance soon to mark Hizbullah's Martyrs Day,” said the daily. Although the party celebrates this memory yearly, but a date has not been officially specified yet, it added. Citing unnamed sources, the newspaper said without elaborating that Nasrallah's speech will take place on February 16 and that it will drive the attention in terms of the new participants in the ceremony. In his speech late in January, Nasrallah addressed the thorny file of the presidency where he renewed adherence to the nomination of Change and Reform bloc head MP Michel Aoun, without hiding cordiality to the Marada chief MP Suleiman Franjieh. He had said: “Even if another dear friend is nominated, it will not push me to renounce my ethical commitment to General Aoun, and this does not mean that (Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman) Franjieh does not deserve to become president.” Lebanon marks the eleventh anniversary of slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, who was assassinated on February 14, 2005.

Reports: Hizbullah Commander Killed in Aleppo Shiite Town
Naharnet/February 06/16/A Hizbullah field commander has been killed in clashes in a flashpoint Shiite town in the northern Syrian province of Aleppo, media reports said on Friday. “The commander Haidar Fariz Merhi and the fighter Hussein Hassan Jawad, who both hail from the western Bekaa town of Mashghara, were killed fighting in the Nubol and Zahraa area north of Aleppo,” Al-Arabiya television reported. The pro-Hizbullah South Lebanon news portal confirmed Merhi's death, also describing him as a Hizbullah commander. According to Al-Arabiya, a third Hizbullah fighter was killed in Syria in recent days. It identified him as Ali Moussa Nassour, saying he hailed from the southern Beirut suburb of Bourj al-Barajneh. Hizbullah, the Syrian army and allied militiamen on Wednesday broke a long running rebel siege of on the Shiite villages of Nubol and Zahraa.
The two villages, located in the middle of opposition territory, had been blockaded by rebel groups for around three years. The development marked a major victory for the regime forces and their allies, which have made significant advances in the province in the past few days – backed by massive Russian airstrikes. Regime troops, Hizbullah fighters and allied militiamen arrived in the two towns on Thursday morning to cheering crowds who threw rice and ululated, according to footage shown on state television. Hundreds of Hizbullah fighters have been killed in Syria since the party's decision to intervene militarily in the conflict.

Iran: Saudi Won't Dare Send Troops to Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 06/16/Saudi Arabia wouldn't dare send ground troops to war-torn Syria, the chief of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards said Saturday, after Riyadh opened up the possibility of such a deployment. The Sunni-ruled kingdom, Iran's regional rival, has said it could "contribute positively" if the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State (IS) jihadist group in Syria decided on ground action. But Major General Ali Jafari, commander of the Guards, said such a move would amount to suicide for Saudi Arabia. "I don't think they would dare do that... If they do, they will inflict a coup de grace on themselves," he said, according to Fars news agency, a media outlet close to the Guards. "They thought that through support and financial aid they could make gains in Syria but the recent victories by the resistance front have disrupted all of their calculations," Jafari said. Iran, the strongest regional ally of President Bashar al-Assad, openly provides financial and military support to the Damascus government but denies having troops on the ground in Syria. Tehran provides military advisers to Assad's army, as well as organising Iranian, Afghan, Iraqi and Pakistani "volunteers" to fight rebels in Syria. Jafari was speaking in Tehran at a funeral ceremony of Brigadier General Mohsen Ghajarian and five other Guards members killed Wednesday in Aleppo province of northern Syria.Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Expediency Council and a former chief of the Guards, also poured scorn on Saudi Arabia's possible presence on the ground in Syria. "In such a situation, the clash of Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Syria together, and then the entrance of America... eventually a large regional war is possible," the official IRNA news agency quoted him as saying. If the Saudi government, known for "madly taking action", embarked on such a move the entire region other than Iran but "including Saudi Arabia, will be consumed by fire". Iran, the Middle East's main Shiite power, and Saudi Arabia have long been at odds over the conflict in Syria. The Gulf kingdom severed all ties with Iran last month after demonstrators stormed its embassy in Tehran and consulate in Mashhad, Iran's second city, following Riyadh's execution of Nimr al-Nimr, a prominent Saudi Shiite cleric and activist.

Syria Regime Warns against any Foreign Ground 'Aggression'
Naharnet/February 06/16/Syria's government warned Saturday that its forces would resist any foreign ground intervention after reports that Saudi Arabia and Turkey, which both support rebel forces, could send in troops. "Any ground intervention on Syrian territory without government authorisation would amount to an aggression that must be resisted," Foreign Minister Walid Muallem said at a news conference in Damascus. "Let no one think they can attack Syria or violate its sovereignty because I assure you any aggressor will return to their country in a wooden coffin, whether they be Saudis or Turks," he warned.
Riyadh on Thursday left open the possibility of deploying soldiers, offering to "contribute positively" if the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State jihadist group decided on ground action.And Russia, which along with Saudi Arabia's regional rival Iran is a major ally of Assad, has accused Turkey of "preparations for an armed invasion" of Syria, a claim which Ankara has dismissed.

U.S. welcomes Saudi anti-ISIS troop proposal
AFP, Washington Saturday, 6 February 2016/The Pentagon on Friday welcomed Saudi Arabia’s pledge to commit ground forces to fight ISIS in Syria, should the U.S.-led coalition ever send in combat troops. The United States has for weeks been calling on partners in the 65-member coalition bombing ISIS in Iraq and Syria to contribute more, and last month Defense Secretary Ashton Carter chastised some countries for doing “nothing at all.” Saudi Arabia has been part of the coalition since late 2014. Though it carried out high-profile initial air strikes against the extremists in Syria, its participation and that of other Gulf members dropped as they shifted focus to striking conflict-torn Yemen. READ ALSO: Saudi: Ready to join ground operation in Syria. “We welcome the announcement by Saudi Arabia that they are looking into ways to enhance their counter-ISIL efforts,” US Central Command spokesman Pat Ryder said, using an alternative acronym for ISIS. “There will be continued discussions with the Saudis and our other partners on the best ways we can continue to intensify coalition efforts.”Carter is meeting with defense officials from Saudi Arabia and at least two dozen other coalition members next week in Brussels, where he is expected to outline the next steps in the anti-ISIS campaign. The Pentagon chief said Saudi Arabia had offered to help encourage other “Muslim-majority” countries to play more of a role as well. “You see others stepping up, and the reason why I’m going to Brussels next week is to bring the full weight of the coalition behind accelerating the defeat of ISIL,” Carter said late Thursday.

Syrian govt not serious about political solution: rebel leader
Reuters | Beirut Saturday, 6 February 2016/Intensifying military offensives show the Syrian government and its allies are not serious about finding a political solution to the five-year-old conflict, the new leader of a major rebel group said on Friday. In his first interview since becoming leader of Syrian insurgent group Jaish al-Islam after the former chief was killed in December, Issam Buwaydani said it was clear “the regime and its allies are not convinced of a political solution.” “The biggest proof is that they continue to bomb Syrian cities and impose sieges on hundreds of thousands of unarmed civilians,” Buwaydani said in the interview with opposition activist news website Syrian Revolution Network. United Nations-sponsored Syrian peace talks stalled this week after the opposition delegation objected to intensified Syrian government offensives supported by Iranian allies and heavy Russian air strikes. Jaish al-Islam (Islam Army) is one of the biggest rebel factions in the Saudi-backed, opposition High Negotiation Committee (HNC) invited to the Geneva peace talks. Buwaydani took over the leadership after predecessor Zahran Alloush – whose cousin Mohamed Alloush is the HNC’s chief negotiator for the Geneva talks – was killed in an air attack near Damascus in December. Buwaydani also said Russian and Iranian support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad must be stopped. “If the international community was serious about the success of a political solution, they would rein in Russian and Iranian aggression and ask them to leave Syria.” “The Syrian government would have been taking its final breath” if it wasn’t for Russia’s “last minute” entry last September into the conflict, Buwaydani said. Buwaydani said his group is fighting on many fronts in Syria despite a lack of supplies and weapons, especially anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. Jaish al-Islam is viewed as a terrorist group by Russia, although many of Assad’s opponents view it as a legitimate part of the opposition.

Syria signals no ceasefire before shutting borders
Agencies Saturday, 6 February 2016/Syria’s foreign minister signaled on Saturday a ceasefire would be difficult or impossible before the borders with Turkey and Jordan were sealed, and before a list of terrorist groups operating in Syria is agreed.
Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem, speaking in a televised news conference, said he was citing his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, who had said “a ceasefire would not be possible before the borders with Turkey and Jordan are controlled, and before agreement on lists of terrorist organizations, it is difficult to achieve that.”Rebel groups fighting President Bashar al-Assad have received supplies via both Turkey and Jordan.
Moualem also said any ground incursion without state approval would be considered an act of aggression and aggressors will go home in coffins. The foreign minister also said that the Syrian government went to talks without preconditions and will not implement any preconditions. His comments capped a week that saw the collapse of U.N.-led efforts to launch indirect peace talks between the Syrian government and an opposition delegation in Geneva. The talks broke down in large part because of Syrian government offensives, including on the outskirts of Aleppo, once the country’s largest city. The offensive, aimed at encircling rebel strongholds in Aleppo, was backed by intense Russian airstrikes and sent thousands of area residents fleeing toward a closed Turkish border. The foreign minister said the government advances signaled that the five-year-old Syria war is nearing its end. “I can say, from the achievements for our armed forces ... that we are now on track to end the conflict,” he said. “Like it or not, our battlefield achievements indicate that we are headed toward the end of the crisis.” Opposition representatives have said they cannot be expected to negotiate in Geneva at a time when the Syrian government and its allies, including Russia, are escalating attacks on rebel strongholds. (With Reuters and AP)

Kerry: Russia must start ceasefire in Syria
AFP, Washington Saturday, 6 February 2016/U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry urged Russia Friday to implement a ceasefire in Syria, saying its bombing campaign was killing women and children in large numbers and “has to stop.”“Russia has indicated to me very directly they are prepared to do a ceasefire,” Kerry told reporters, fresh from a trip to Europe focused on resolving the five-year Syrian conflict. “The Iranians confirmed in London just a day and a half ago they will support a ceasefire now.”“We will have a much better sense in the next few days of how serious each party is,” added Kerry, a day after he implicitly blamed Russia’s bombing campaign against the Syrian opposition for the collapse of peace talks in Geneva this week. Moscow, Damascus’s main ally, has stepped up bombing around the Syrian city of Aleppo in recent days, facilitating a government offensive that has forced tens of thousands of civilians to flee to the Turkish border. Kerry accused the Russian military of using “dumb bombs.”“They are not precision bombs, and there are civilians, including women and children, being killed in large numbers as a consequence,” he said, during a joint news conference with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos. Russian planes are also targeting hospitals and returning to bomb people rescuing those wounded in earlier air strikes, he added. “This has to stop”, Kerry said. “The Russians have made some constructive ideas about how a ceasefire in fact could be implemented,” he added. “But if it’s just talk for the sake of talk in order to continue the bombing, nobody is going to accept that.” Kerry’s comments represent a clear shift in tone following a months-long attempt to cooperate with Russia over a way out of the Syrian crisis.

As Syria Rebels Face Rout, Allies Saudi, Turkey May Send Troops
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 06/16/With rebel forces facing the prospect of a crushing defeat by Syria's Russian-backed regime, their allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey may send in limited numbers of ground troops, analysts say. Riyadh on Thursday left open the possibility of deploying soldiers, saying it would "contribute positively" if the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State (IS) jihadist group in Syria decides on ground action. The fate of Saudi-backed Syrian armed opposition groups fighting to topple President Bashar Assad is also a major concern for the kingdom. "I think Saudi Arabia is desperate to do something in Syria," said Andreas Krieg, of the Department of Defense Studies at King's College London. Krieg said the "moderate" opposition is in danger of being routed if Aleppo falls to the regime, whose forces have closed in on Syria's second city, backed by intense Russian air strikes. "This is a problem for Saudi and Qatar as they have massively invested into Syria via the moderate opposition as their surrogate on the ground," said Krieg, who also serves as a consultant to the Qatari armed forces. Russia, which along with Saudi Arabia's regional rival Iran is a major ally of Assad, meanwhile has accused Turkey of "preparations for an armed invasion" of Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the claims "laughable". But Krieg said Erdogan's policy in Syria has achieved nothing so far. - Peace efforts stalled -"Turkey and Saudi need to turn this war around. So any Saudi engagement would be in cooperation with Doha and Ankara," he added. Aleppo province is among the main strongholds of Syria's armed opposition, which is facing possibly its worst moment since the beginning of the nearly five-year war, at a time when peace efforts have stalled.
The Saudi-backed opposition umbrella group, the High Negotiations Committee, says it will not return to peace talks which recently collapsed in Geneva unless its humanitarian demands are met. "The Saudis believe that the chance of a peaceful solution for the Syrian crisis is very limited," said Mustafa Alani, of the independent Gulf Research Centre. "They don't see that there is a real pressure on the regime to give major concessions... They think eventually it will have to end in the battlefield," Alani said. "Turkey is enthusiastic about this option (of sending ground troops) since the Russians started their air operation and tried to push Turkey outside the equation," he added. Alani said the Saudis are serious about committing troops "as part of a coalition, especially if the Turkish forces are going to be involved". But he and other analysts said Saudi involvement would be limited, given its leadership of a separate Arab coalition fighting in Yemen for almost a year and guarding the kingdom's southern border from attacks by Iran-backed Yemeni rebels. - Saudi special forces -"They are overstretched. But in principle I think they will not hesitate to send a certain number of their fighters to fight in Syria," Alani said, adding that this would probably include Saudi special forces. Turkey and Saudi already belong to a U.S.-led coalition which officially has 65 members. It has been bombing IS targets in Syria and Iraq, as well as training local forces to fight the extremists. Krieg said that with Saudi and other Gulf kingdoms "bogged down" in Yemen, he could only foresee a possible expansion of "train and equip" missions involving Gulf special forces to help rebels in Syria."Saudi and Qatar have already networks on the ground," he said, viewing Doha as a link between Riyadh and Ankara as relations improve. On Friday, U.S. Central Command spokesman Pat Ryder welcomed Saudi Arabia's willingness to send soldiers against IS. The United States has been calling on coalition members to do more. In November, the United Arab Emirates said it was also ready to commit ground troops against jihadists in Syria. Jane Kinninmont, senior research fellow at London's Chatham House, said Saudi Arabia is more interested in the war in Yemen than the struggle against IS. "But what you might see is small numbers of ground troops and perhaps also special forces which would be there partly to make a symbolic point that Saudi Arabia is supporting the fight against ISIS," she said, using another acronym for the Sunni extremists.She declared herself "a bit skeptical" about potential Turkish army involvement in Syria, "but we might see them having some kind of interest in containing Kurdish influence".

Turkey seizes unsafe boats intended for refugees: reports
AFP, Istanbul Saturday, 6 February 2016/Turkish police seized almost 50 unsafe boats destined for migrants wanting to cross the Aegean Sea to Greece, in the latest crackdown on businesses exploiting refugees in western Turkey, reports said Saturday.
Police simultaneously raided three underground workshops in the port city of Izmir on Friday, seizing 49 boats that failed to meet safety standards, the official Anatolia news agency said.The boats were destroyed by the police, it said, adding that the workshops now faced closure. Turkey is home to at least 2.2 million refugees from Syria’s civil war. Risky crossing. It has become a hub for migrants seeking to move to Europe, many of whom pay smugglers thousands of dollars for the risky crossing to Greece. Ankara reached an agreement with the EU in November to stem the flow of refugees heading to Europe in return for financial assistance of $3.2 billion in cash. After the deal, Turkey appears to have stepped up efforts, stopping boats, rounding up scores of suspected smugglers and seizing hundreds of sub-standard life jackets given to the refugees. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is to visit Ankara on Monday to discuss implementation of the deal.

Al-Qaeda mourns death of top Yemen leader
Reuters, Dubai Saturday, 6 February 2016/Al-Qaeda’s branch in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) mourned the killing of a senior commander in southern Yemen, a statement distributed on social media showed, after he was reported dead in a suspected U.S. drone strike last week. Jalal Baleedi was killed by a drone strike as he was travelling in a car with two others in coastal Abyan province, residents said on Thursday. He had run al Qaeda’s combat operations and had a $5 million U.S. bounty on his head. “We extend condolences to our Muslim community and specifically our people in Yemen...regarding the killing of the heroic commander Jalal Baleedi al-Marqishi...who was killed in a crusader strike that targeted him while he was among the sons of his tribe in Abyan province,” the statement said. During nine months of civil war and a Gulf military intervention in Yemen, the United States has kept up drone strikes against extremist groups.

U.N. chief: 34 groups now allied to ISIS extremists
Associated Press, United Nations Saturday, 6 February 2016/Thirty-four militant groups from around the world had reportedly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) extremist group as of mid-December - and that number will only grow in 2016, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a report Friday. Ban said ISIS poses “an unprecedented threat,” because of its ability to persuade groups from countries like the Philippines, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Libya and Nigeria to pledge their allegiance. He said U.N. member states should also prepare for an increase in attacks by ISIS associated groups traveling to other countries to launch attacks and develop networks. “The recent expansion of the ISIL sphere of influence across west and north Africa, the Middle East and south and southeast Asia demonstrates the speed and scale at which the gravity of the threat has evolved in just 18 months,” Ban said, using another abbreviation for the group. Adding to the threat, ISIS is “the world’s wealthiest terrorist organization,” Ban said, citing estimates the group generated $400-$500 million from oil and oil products in 2015, despite an embargo. According to the U.N. mission in Iraq, cash taken from bank branches located in provinces under ISIS control totaled $1 billion. The mission also estimates that a tax on trucks entering ISIS controlled-territory generates nearly $1 billion a year, he said. The extremist group captured large swathes of Iraq and Syria less than two years ago and despite international efforts to oust them, Ban said ISIS continues to maintain its presence in both countries and is expanding to other regions.

Turkish border crossing closed as Syrians flee
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Saturday, 6 February 2016/Turkey's foreign minister said Saturday his country would keep its “open border policy” for refugees, but did not indicate when thousands of Syrians camped out near a closed frontier post could cross. “We still keep this open border policy for these people fleeing from the aggression from the regime as well as air strikes of Russia,” Mevlut Cavusoglu said as he left a meeting with his EU counterparts in Amsterdam. “We have received already 5,000 of them, another 50,000 to 55,000 are on their way and we cannot leave them there alone because air strikes are ongoing and also regime forces supported by Iran Shia militias are attacking these civilians as well.”A senior government official says Turkey is caring for some 30-35,000 displaced Syrians on the Syrian side of the border but had no immediate plans to let them in. Governor Suleyman Tapsiz of the border province of Kilis said Saturday Turkey had the ability to care for the Syrians inside Syria for the time being but had made preparations to allow them in in the event of an “extraordinary crisis.” He did not elaborate. Earlier, Turkey appeared to be preparing for a new influx of refugees fleeing a major offensive by Syria’s Russian-backed regime, with tens of thousands of Syrians camped out near the border crossing. The United Nations said some 20,000 people have gathered at the Bab al-Salam crossing, hoping to reach Turkey, which already hosts more than two million refugees from the bloody conflict.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights for its part estimated some 40,000 people had been forced to leave their homes since last Monday. Turkish authorities were working to free up space within the existing camps along the Syrian border to accommodate the new arrivals. Opposition forces and some 350,000 civilians were inside the rebel-held Aleppo city, which was targeted in the government offensive. An AFP correspondent saw trucks carrying parts for tents Friday to the refugee camp close to the border gate on the Turkish side which faces the Bab al-Salam crossing on Syrian soil. At least four Turkish aid trucks were also seen returning to Turkey after making deliveries of food to the Syrian side of the border.Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) said in a statement that it had finalized preparations for a possible influx. Turkey faced a similar experience in 2014 when 200,000 refugees fled the Syrian Kurdish town of Kobane over three days as the ISIS and Syrian Kurdish fighters battled for control. AFAD said a registration system that complies with international standards was set up to receive refugees, which includes a health scan, food and shelter. The government offensive is targeting the Aleppo province, which was once a rebel stronghold, providing easy access to neighboring Turkey, a key opposition backer. The city itself has been divided between rebel control in the east and government control in the west since mid-2012. But government forces have steadily chipped away at rebel-held territory around the city and their advances this week leave the opposition there virtually surrounded. The advance is the most significant outcome yet of the Russian intervention that began on September 30, ostensibly targeting the Islamic State group and other “terrorists.”Analysts and activists say Russia’s strikes have always disproportionately targeted non-jihadist rebels in an attempt to bolster President Bashar al-Assad’s government. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry urged Russia Friday to implement a ceasefire in Syria, saying its bombing campaign was killing women and children in large numbers and “has to stop.”
EU: Turkey must keep border open
Meanwhile, top EU officials on Saturday reminded Turkey of its international obligations to keep its frontiers open to refugees. “The Geneva convention is still valid which states that you have to take in refugees,” EU Enlargement and Regional Policy Commissioner Johannes Hahn said as he went into talks on the migrant crisis with EU foreign ministers and their counterparts from countries seeking EU membership, including Turkey. An EU diplomatic source told AFP that the foreign ministers, meeting informally in Amsterdam, would take the opportunity to voice their concerns over the fate of the refugees fleeing the government offensive against rebel forces in Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told a Syria donors conference in London on Thursday that Ankara would allow the latest group of refugees into the country. More than a million migrants landed in the 28-nation European Union last year, most of them crossing into Greece from Turkey, and then making their way through the Balkans to Germany and other northern member states. Such numbers have put huge strains on the bloc and the Schengen passport-free zone, with several countries - among them Germany, Austria, Hungary, Sweden - re-introducing border controls while Brussels struggles to find a comprehensive solution. (With AFP and Reuters)

Iran and Russia in first major falling-out over Syrian war and Assad
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 5, 2016
While diplomats from 70 countries talked in London about how to raise $9 bn for projects to rehabilitate Syria’s refugees and rebuild their war-ravaged country, its future was further clouded this week by an argument that flared between the main arbiters, Russia and Iran. Ali Akbar Velayati, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s foreign affairs advisor, spent three days in Moscow Feb. 1-4 haranguing Russian leaders, including President Vladimir Putin, whom he saw twice, on the differences that had cropped up in their long political and military cooperation for propping up the Assad regime.
The Iranian official went home without resolving those differences, debkafile’s sources report exclusively. Left pending were not just the next stage of the war but also the fate of President Bashar Assad. Velayati told Iranian reporters on his plane: “We are against stopping the war,” and “The war must be continued until all (Syrian) terror cells are eradicated.” He did not elaborate, but debkafile’s Iranian and Moscow sources point out that he was underlining Tehran’s concerns about Moscow’s reported plans for the Assad regime, in which Iran is heavily invested, and the slowdown of Russia’s air campaign against every last rebel group. Most of all, Iran’s leaders were troubled to find that Russia, by dint of its proactive military intervention, had maneuvered itself into position for calling the shots for Syria. They are particularly distrustful, according to our sources, over Moscow’s complicated deals with Washington on the Syrian question and the dialogue Russia is holding with the Persian Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia. The Iranians fear that Putin is calibrating his offensive against rebel groups according to the pace of these interchanges and may therefore scale back strikes on pro-American or “moderate” rebels, or even refrain from subduing them. Tehran also looks askance at the improved relations Moscow is fostering with its rivals in the region, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited the two Arab capitals to allay their concerns for the Syrian rebel groups they support. He promised the Saudis not to harm them, so long as they did not get in the way of the joint Russian-Syrian steps in their country. Given the Russian moves, the Syrian war looks increasingly to Tehran as unlikely to end in President Assad’s favor. Lavrov seemed to confirm this Iranian concern on Feb. 2 when, during his visit to Oman he said, "Russian air strikes will not cease until we truly defeat the terrorist organizations ISIL and Jabhat al-Nusra, And I don't see why these air strikes should stop." The Iranians immediately jumped on his omission of all other rebel groups but the two Islamists as the enemy, confirming their suspicions that Moscow was now acting in Syria on its own account. This was the cause of raised tempers in Velayati’s second meeting with the Russian president in Moscow. The Iranian official demanded the expansion of Russian military operations to cover more inclusive rebel targets. Putin shot back that if Iran wants to ramp up war operations, it should send its own troops into the fray - and not just generals. He touched on a sore point: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps don’t have troops available for fighting in Syria. And so, Velayati’s mission to Moscow ended on an acrimonious note.

Libya faces hurdles to quick action against ISIS
Reuters, Washington Saturday, 6 February 2016/The United States and its allies are probably many weeks or even months away from launching a new military campaign against ISIS in Libya, despite mounting concern about the group’s spread there and its attacks on oil infrastructure, U.S. officials say. The Pentagon has warned in recent weeks of the dangers posed by ISIS’ growth in Libya. The U.S. is developing military options, which were discussed at an inconclusive meeting last week of President Barack Obama and his top security aides, officials said. Those options include increased air strikes, deploying U.S. special operations forces and training Libyan security forces, officials say. But the U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said enormous hurdles stand in the way of increased American military involvement. The largest is the formation of a unified Libyan government strong enough to call for and accommodate foreign military assistance. Getting some allies on board could also require a new mandate from the United Nations, they said. “We’re not there yet,” said one U.S. official. He and other officials with knowledge of internal deliberations cautioned that it is too soon to estimate when military action might begin, but cautioned it could take many weeks or even months. “As far as I’m aware, there is no clear intention to go ahead with the military-style action. There is a lot of thinking, a lot of thinking, a lot of planning,” said a Western diplomat.U.S. and European officials describe Islamic State’s presence in Libya as increasingly worrisome, although not on the scale of its rule over swaths of Iraq and Syria. ISIS forces have attacked Libya’s oil infrastructure and taken control of the city of Sirte, exploiting a power vacuum in the North African country where two rival governments have been battling for supremacy. Estimates of ISIS fighters in Libya range from 3,000 to 5,000-6,000. Officials openly worry that the group could use its Libya haven to relieve the pressure from U.S. air strikes and local forces against its home base in Iraq and Syria.

U.S. releases photos tied to Iraq detainee abuse
Reuters, Washington Saturday, 6 February 2016/The Pentagon on Friday released 198 photographs linked to allegations of abuse of detainees in Iraq and Afghanistan, many of them showing close-ups of cuts and bruises to arms and legs of prisoners held in U.S. facilities. The Pentagon said the photos came from criminal investigations into 56 allegations of misconduct by U.S. personnel. It said 14 of those allegations were substantiated and even led to life imprisonment.The American Civil Liberties Union, which filed a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit more than a decade ago for the photos, said the images were part of a larger collection of 2,000 mostly unreleased photographs tied to American detainees. “The still-secret pictures are the best evidence of the serious abuses that took place in military detention centers,” said ACLU Deputy Legal Director Jameel Jaffer in a statement. “The government’s selective disclosure risks misleading the public about the true extent of the abuse.”The release follows a November decision by U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter to not recertify the images under the Protected National Security Documents Act, thus allowing them to be made public subject to request. The photos released on Friday, while graphic, were unlikely to have the same impact as the images depicting abuse of Abu Ghraib detainees that emerged in 2004. Some detainees there claimed they endured physical and sexual abuse, infliction of electric shocks, and mock executions. Still, the Pentagon said the independent criminal investigations tied to the photos released on Friday led to disciplinary action against 65 U.S. service members, ranging from letters of reprimand to life imprisonment.

Ban ‘ashamed’ over Israel-Palestine deadlock
AFP, London Saturday, 6 February 2016/U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Friday he was “ashamed” at a lack of progress in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. “I feel guilty, ashamed of the lack of progress,” he told an event organized by foreign affairs think-tank Chatham House in London. “Basically it’s up to the leadership of Israel and the Palestinians to put an end to the conflict,” he said. “I am not working for a particular country or a particular policy but for the people in the region.”The peace process has been deadlocked since a U.S. peace mission collapsed in April 2014. U.N. diplomats say Ban is hoping to get peace talks moving again before he steps down as secretary-general at the end of the year. But last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused him of “encouraging terrorism” after the U.N. chief said it was understandable that the Palestinians were resisting Israeli military rule. Israel seized the West Bank and east Jerusalem in the 1967 Six-Day War and later annexed east Jerusalem in a move never recognized by the international community. Israel occupied the Gaza Strip in the 1967 war and pulled its troops and settlers out in 2005 but still exercises control over most of Gaza’s borders, waters and airspace.

Pakistan Wants as Many Taliban Groups as Possible to Join Talks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 06/16/Pakistan said as many Taliban groups as possible must be persuaded to join any upcoming peace discussions with the Afghan government, as a third round of four-country talks aimed at reviving negotiations with the insurgent group began Saturday. Delegates from Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the United States convened in the Pakistani capital Islamabad over the weekend even as the insurgents wage an unprecedented winter campaign of violence across Afghanistan. Pakistan's advisor for foreign affairs Sartaj Aziz said a joint effort would help persuade the Taliban to join the process and lead to a "significant" reduction in violence. "We believe our collective efforts at this stage, including through supportive CBMs (Confidence Building Measures), have to be aimed at persuading the maximum number of Taliban groups to join the peace talks," Aziz said during his opening statement at the third-round of talks on Saturday. "In our view, a clear, well-defined and actionable roadmap for the peace process between the Afghan Government and Taliban groups is important."The first round of the roadmap talks was held in Islamabad last month, where delegates began laying the groundwork for direct dialogue between Kabul and the Islamist group. A second round was held in Kabul on January 18 which urged the Taliban groups to enter into early talks with the Afghan government without preconditions. Taliban representatives have been notably absent during the process and analysts caution that any substantive talks are still a long way off. The Taliban has stepped up attacks on government and foreign targets in Afghanistan this winter, when fighting usually abates, underscoring a worsening security situation. Observers say the intensifying insurgency highlights a push by the militants to seize more territory in an attempt to wrangle greater concessions during talks. Pakistan -- the Taliban's historic backers -- hosted a milestone first round of talks directly with the Taliban in July last year. But the negotiations stalled when the insurgents belatedly confirmed the death of longtime leader Mullah Omar, sparking infighting within the group. Afghanistan sees the support of Pakistan as vital to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table.

Survivors Tell of Quake Horror in Taiwan
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 06/16 /Rescuers searched through the night Saturday hoping to free residents trapped in buildings toppled by a deadly earthquake in Taiwan, as survivors recalled being plucked to safety from their ruined homes. More than 250 people have been rescued from the Wei-kuan apartment complex in the southern city of Tainan since the quake hit at 4:00 am Saturday, killing 14 people and toppling four blocks of around 100 homes in total. Over 150 people remain out of contact with their families in Tainan and surrounding counties, with at least 20 feared still trapped in the rubble of the apartment buildings. Those who escaped told of their terror and relief. (When the quake hit) I slid down from my bed and was trapped between the bed and a closet," resident Su Yi-ming, 48, told AFP. "I knocked on the closet to get the attention of rescuers who broke the window to get me at around 5:00 am. I think I was the first to be rescued," he said. "My mind went blank when the quake struck, it shook violently and the house just came down. I couldn't react." Su escaped uninjured, with his wife and their two children sustaining minor injuries. They lived on the sixth floor of one of the collapsed blocks. "We are very lucky that we are alive but I'm sad that some of my neighbors lost their lives. When I was brought out I saw many rescuers trying to find people," Su said. Wang Chih-peng, 38, was rescued with his wife and three-year-old daughter. "I was scared awake by the quake and I held my wife and child until it stopped shaking," Wang told AFP. "We lay on our bed waiting for rescuers because we thought it safer. I heard the sound of rescuers approaching and screamed for help and they removed the window to pull us out. I saw the building had tumbled and luckily we were safe."
Rescuers were still freeing survivors Saturday night. Footage released by emergency workers showed rescuers talking to one trapped 36-year-old woman through the rubble, where she had been pinned down by furniture for 16 hours, before digging her out.
Another woman was extracted alive from the ruins by crane late Saturday.

Five reasons why Iran-Saudi conflict won't escalate
Ali Omidi/Al-Monitor/February 06/16
Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have been tense ever since the establishment of the Islamic Republic back in 1979. Initially, Iran’s doctrine of exporting its revolution and its leaders’ negative view of countries such as Saudi Arabia, together with Riyadh’s creation of the Gulf Cooperation Council and support for Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s regime during its 1980-1988 war with Iran, led to mutual political pessimism. Ties were further strained in 1987 after the massacre of over 400 Iranian pilgrims by Saudi security forces in the holy city of Mecca. With the passing of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, in 1989, followed by the pragmatic presidency of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, tensions began to ease — but were never fully eliminated.
In 2011, as the Arab Spring spread across the Middle East, the wall of mistrust between Tehran and Riyadh grew thicker. The civil wars in Syria and Yemen pushed the two sides into indirect military confrontations. Riyadh’s Jan. 2 execution of Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, amid Tehran’s protestations, brought the worsening tension to a head. Indeed, Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut ties with Iran after its diplomatic facilities were stormed by Iranian protesters, with countries such as Sudan, Somalia, Bahrain and Djibouti soon following suit, brought about a novel state in the Iranian-Saudi relationship. In this atmosphere, media pundits are asking whether it is possible that Tehran and Riyadh may enter direct military confrontation. The answer is clear: There will not be a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, for five main reasons.
First, the administration of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is pursuing a policy of constructive engagement with the world — which is what Iranians elected him for in 2013. In Iran’s complicated political system, the executive and legislative branches are elected by popular vote, though the Guardian Council’s vetting of candidates makes the elections process not entirely free. Within this political system, making a decision to engage in war is not an easy task. Therefore, while some Saudi leaders may beat the drums of escalation, the possibility of outright war depends on factors such as whether there is political will for such action and how the two countries choose to handle the crisis in their relations. In sum, engaging in war is not something that can be done by one side alone. Moreover, Iran’s government has no incentive to increase tensions, as evidenced by the condemnation of the attack on the Saudi Embassy in Tehran by the triangle of power in Iranian foreign policy, meaning Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. In a goodwill effort, Iran has also announced that it will continue to send pilgrims to Saudi Arabia for the hajj this year. Thus, if Saudi Arabia intends to initiate war, the Iranian public — seeing themselves as victims of a violation — will mobilize, and also gain the sympathy of the international community.
Second, the majority of Iran’s current leaders were involved in the destructive war with Iraq and are fully aware of its costs. Rouhani held several military positions during the conflict, while Zarif and his deputies also remember the hardships of that era in their capacity as diplomats. Khamenei, who was president at that time, also served as chairman of the Supreme Defense Council, while Rafsanjani served as the de facto commander-in-chief of the Iranian military. Even Iran’s parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, served as a commander with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Larijani’s brothers, including incumbent judiciary chief Sadegh Larijani, were also involved in the conflict. Many other influential Iranian figures, including a great number of parliamentarians and Friday prayer leaders, also have bitter memories of war, some of them as war veterans. Moreover, although the IRGC at times seems to favor showdowns — such as in the cases of the recent detention of US sailors or its surveillance of the aircraft carrier USS Harry Truman in the Persian Gulf — it is not empowered to take arbitrary actions.
Third, the very nature of the current crisis makes war unlikely. According to Charles Hermann, a renowned analyst of issues related to US foreign policy, crisis management and decision-making, what defines a crisis are the three elements of threat, time and surprise. Whether the situation threatens the vital interests of a state allows only a short time for decision-making, and whether it occurs as a surprise to policymakers must all be considered. When it comes to Iran and Saudi Arabia, the nature of their crisis does not meet this criteria. In fact, Saudi Arabia’s tone against Iran has even softened in recent weeks. Indeed, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Minister of Defense Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud recently told The Economist, “Whoever is pushing toward [war with Iran] is somebody who is not in their right mind.”
Fourth, on the international level, Saudi Arabia believes that in the event of a military confrontation with Iran, the United States and the rest of the West may side with the Islamic Republic. Riyadh’s decision to cut ties with Tehran has received virtually no international support aside from some African countries that play no significant role in international power equations. Even US Secretary of State John Kerry has urged calm following the breakdown in the Saudi-Iranian relationship. There may have been a time when, because of Saudi Arabia’s oil or its position, Washington would have gone out of its way the serve the interests of Riyadh. However, now, even some US elites view Saudi Arabia as a slightly more civilized version of the Islamic State.
Last but not least, victory is uncertain in a potential Iranian-Saudi war. Saudi Arabia and Iran may take destructive blows from each other, but both know that neither has the ability to destroy the other side or impose regime change. Saudi Arabia has more warplanes and modern military equipment, while Iran has better missile capabilities and military personnel. Riyadh’s involvement in the Yemen war is another factor that reduces the motivation for war with Tehran. Moreover, the population in Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich Eastern Province is mainly Shiite and has the potential to revolt — an advantage for Tehran that Riyadh cannot easily create for itself in Iran. Lastly, Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which Saudi Arabia conducts much of its trade, is a further preventative factor, since war would necessitate redirecting all that trade to the Red Sea, which in the short run is just not possible.

The Ayatollah Looks East and Finds a Void
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/February 06/16
Foreign officials dealing with Iran since the mullahs seized power have often wondered who is really in charge in Tehran. Chris Patten, a British politician who served as the European Union’s foreign policy point-man, once observed that Iranian officials he dealt with always turned out to be “actors playing the role of ministers”. Over the decades, scores of officials from all over the world have reached the same conclusion after dealing with officials in Tehran including men bearing the lofty title of President of the Republic. The impression is that Iran has two governments: one that is presented to the outside world, and another that wields real power. Last week that impression was reinforced when Ali-Akbar Velayati, whose title is Special Foreign Policy Advisor to the “Supreme Guide”, flew to Moscow on what he said was a “mission to start the Islamic Republic’s new strategy” which was labeled as “Looking to the East”.
Velayati’s trip to Moscow was interesting for a number of reasons. To start with, it was timed to immediately follow President Hassan Rouhani’s visits to Rome and Paris with the message that the Islamic Republic was seeking close ties with Western democracies. Rouhani is also scheduled to visit Austria and Belgium later this month.
In addition to this, Rouhani has missed no opportunity to send friendly signals to the Obama administration in Washington. He has praised the US president as “intelligent and perceptive” and claims to be in an epistolary relationship with him. Rouhani has noted that the world today is like a village in which America is the “headman”. Thus it is important for the Islamic Republic to foster good relations with the “headman.”In fact, political circles in Tehran have nicknamed Rouhani and his entourage as the “New York Boys”, a faction of the Khomeinist regime that hopes to imitate Communist China under Deng Xiaoping by forging close ties with the US while maintaining the repressive one-party system at home. Their godfather has been and remains former President Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a wheeler-dealer who first established secret contacts with Washington in 1984, triggering the “Irangate” scandal under President Ronald Reagan. Since then, successive US administrations have pursued what has so far turned out to be a chimera: helping the “moderates” led by Rafsanjani to eliminate “hardliners” led by Khamenei, closing the chapter of the revolution and turning the Islamic Republic into another despotic regime that minds its own business without making trouble for the US and its allies.
During the past 150 years, how to balance hostile foreign powers against one another has been a key preoccupation of Iranian leaders. In the heyday of European Imperialism, Iranian elites were divided between Anglophiles and Russophiles: a choice between “pest” and “cholera”.In the 1950s, as Britain faded and Russia re-emerged as the USSR, Iranian elites were divided between pro-Americans and pro-Soviets. Muhammad Mussadeq, who briefly served as Prime Minister, started as pro-American but ended up dreaming of what he called a “negative balance”; that is to say keeping both east and the west at an arm’s length. To deceive the Mussadeqists, with whom he had a tactical alliance against the Shah, the late Ayatollah Ruhallah Khomeini launched his slogan of “Neither East nor West”.
In practice, however, Khomeini regarded the US as the most dangerous enemy of his ideology and the Soviet Union as a far lesser threat. The reason was that, for many Iranians, America was attractive for cultural, scientific, economic and even political reasons while the USSR was unable to attract even Iranian Communists most of whom were Maoists, Trotskyites or Castrists. Khomeini approved the attack on the US Embassy and the seizing of American hostages but vetoed similar moves against the Soviets. He invited Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to convert to Shiite Islam and believed that anti-Americanism was enough to tie Moscow and Tehran together. Khamenei is aware of all that. This is why he decided to clip the wings of the “New York Boys” before it was too late. Last November, as the “New York Boys” were making a song and dance about their “nuke deal” with Obama, Russian President Vladimir Putin flew to Tehran, went straight to Khamenei’s palace and pointedly ignored Rouhani and Rafsanjani. It was after that meeting, described by Velayati as “epoch making”, that Khamenei coined the phrase “Looking to the East”.Will Khamenei be able to contain the “New York Boys” in the context of a new anti-American axis with Russia? Tehran and Moscow share a number of objectives. Both want to capitalize on the American retreat under Obama and make sure that the US doesn’t return to the regional scene as the decisive power. In that context they want to keep Bashar Al-Assad in place in Syria, albeit in a pocket of territory, for as long as possible. They also want to consolidate the influence that Iran, and to a lesser extent Russia, have gained in Iraq and Lebanon while “Finlandizing” some members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, notably Oman and Qatar.
In Moscow on Monday, Velayati spoke of Russia and Iran as “guarantors of peace and stability” in a vaguely defined region stretching from Central Asia to North Africa and the Atlantic Ocean. The trouble is that Russia is deeply unpopular in Iran while there are few Russians who have lost any love for the Islamic Republic. While some four million Russian tourists went to Turkey in 2015, Iran, promoting “halal tourism”, attracted a few thousand. Trade between the two neighbours is also limited simply because Russia has nothing that Iran wants to buy and Iranians cannot tempt Russians away from western products.
Tehran and Moscow have a centuries-old tradition of mutual suspicion and one effect of this has been their failure, after 25 years of negotiations, to decide a common legal regime for the Caspian Sea.For more than 2500 years, the direction of the Iranian “historic gaze” has been to the west while Russia, newcomer to history as a state, has also looked in that direction since the 19th century at least. Finally, mere anti-Americanism is not enough for building a new global strategy for either Russia or Iran. Khamenei’s “Looking East” is a failure even before it is translated into concrete policies.

The Syrian Settlement – Principles of Geneva 1 or the Concessions of Geneva 2?
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al Awsat/February 06/16
Opinion: The Syrian Settlement – Principles of Geneva 1 or the Concessions of Geneva 2?
I reckon that there is no political observer who expects much from the Geneva 3 talks on Syria. In fact, a senior western diplomat was frank when he candidly expressed his doubts about chances of success as the High Negotiations Committee (HNC) took its difficult decision to send its delegation for talks with the UN’s Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura, along with calls to implement international pledges regarding human issues. The HNC, which was formed by the Riyadh conference and brought together the broadest representation of Syrian opposition groups, was under immense pressure to attend Geneva 3. This pressure was international as de Mistura threatened the HNC with a fait accopmli conference, Washington threatened the opposition that it would cut off aid if its HNC did not attend and, of course Russian, as the Russian air force is now at war with the Syrian people. The astonishing thing at this point is that while Russia acts as a full political and military ‘partner’ of the Assad regime, it still insists on being an authority eligible to pick and choose delegates of Assad’s “opposition”. Actually, if we review the overall efforts made to stop the war in Syria since the summer of 2011 when Bashar Al-Assad decided to crush the popular uprising by force, we find two movements moving simultaneously in opposite directions:
1- There was a gradual decline in the cohesion of the group of countries that stood by the Syrian uprising as the US and Iran were finalising the JCPOA (i.e. the Iran nuclear deal). 2- As it became clear to Al-Assad’s regime that it would not survive if left to its own devices, all the hidden links kept in reserve for a rainy day, its implicit alliances and subsequently its strategic role in the Middle East were all uncovered. The countries that initially sided with the Syrian uprising joined together under what was called the “Friends of Syria” and met in February 2012 in the absence of Russia, China and Iran. The aid provided by the Western powers claiming the ‘friendship’ of the Syrian people, however, fell short of what the Syrian opposition was asking for, namely, safe havens, no-fly zones, and advanced and effective defensive weapons capable of neutralizing and deterring Al-Assad’s air force.
Then in June 2012 a meeting was held in Geneva, this time attended by Russia and China, and set in motion a “transitional” process leading to “A Syria without Al-Assad. However, Russia supported by China adopted the regime’s demands that the priority should be ‘fighting terrorism’, meaning the opposition. At this point there was a clear difference of interpretation of the Geneva (now known as Geneva 1) principles.
The Western “Friends of Syria” continued later on to refuse providing any qualitative military aid to the opposition, especially, ‘The Free Syrian Army’ as ISIS was gaining ground in many parts of Syria, virtually, unopposed and unhindered by the regime’s army. Indeed, the regime intentionally exploited the advances of ISIS against the ‘FSA’, making common cause with it as spelt out candidly by a Syrian intelligence Lebanese functionary. By 2013 the US – Iran rapprochement was rapidly becoming a reality, more so after the Muscat secret negotiations were divulged, and Hassan Rouhani won Iran’s presidential elections in June 2013. Almost immediately Washington described his win as a victory for “moderation” and “rationalism” that deserved a positive response. Indeed, within, few months, as soon as Al-Assad realised that White House’s threatening ‘red lines’ were non-existent it used chemical weapons in Greater Damascus while doing nothing about ISIS taking over the city of Raqqah which became Syria’s first provincial capital to fall to the extremist terrorist organization. Washington, in turn, did nothing about the chemical attack, and expressed its satisfaction that the Al-Assad had handed in his chemical ‘arsenal’.
In January 2014 Geneva 2 was held without any positive results. Moscow stood firm while Washington, not only retreated from its initial stance, but moved even closer to the Russian interpretation of what was going on in Syria. Then, in early March 2014 President Barack Obama sent a clear message ‘to whom it may concern’ through an interview with Jeffrey Goldberg in which he insinuated that he regarded Iran as a trustworthy ally in the Middle East along with Israel. Subsequently, Washington rhetoric against Al-Assad was getting fainter, concentrating its argument on the fact that “he has lost his legitimacy” as Raqqah became the declared ‘capital’ of ISIS in the heart of Syria.
Both inside and outside Syria, letting down the Syrian uprising by 2015 led to the proliferation of extremist groups against a marked erosion of frustrated and desperate moderates, some of whom began bit by bit to leave the political and military scene. Yet, despite this, and the active backing of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and its Lebanese, Iraqi and Afghani militias, the regime failed to gain the upper hand in the field. Given the above stalemate, against the background of massacres, human suffering, threats to a number of the regime’s heartlands, and the West’s move to consider fighting ISIS as the priority in Syria, Russia joined the war in October 2015 under the pretext of attacking ISIS.
Then, one month after the Russian intervention, which actually concentrated its bombardment on the positions of the ‘FSA’ and the ‘moderate’ Opposition groups, representatives of 17 countries connected with the Syrian crisis met in the Austrian capital Vienna, including Iran, in the absence of the regime and opposition. The meeting ended with agreeing on a ceasefire and a ‘framework for political transition’, but not the future of Al-Assad. Consequently, last December, the UN Security Council unanimously agreed a ‘road map’ that begins with negotiations between the Syrian regime and opposition aimed at reaching a ceasefire, forming a ‘transitional government’ within six months and conducting elections within 18 months, again saying nothing about Al-Assad’s role. But in the light of developing agreements between Washington and Moscow, and the changes on the ground brought about by the Russian military campaign, some reports have recently suggested that Washington and Tehran have agreed that Al-Assad remains in office until 2022! What should we expect now? It is obvious that the Syrian opposition has no option but to continue its steadfastness, regardless of how huge the disappointment is. Steadfastness without illusions! The Syrian opposition is aware today that its ‘adversary’ is also the ‘referee’, and thus must not give it new excuses to continue betraying it.

Saudi boots on the ground in Syria?
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/February 06/16
Saudi Brigadier General Ahmed al-Assiri, official spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen, has made an interesting statement about Riyadh’s readiness to send ground troops to Syria. This raises a lot of questions. Does this mark a change in the Saudi foreign policy? Should we fight inside a foreign land? Why should we fight with the U.S.-led coalition? If there is a will to intervene, why don’t we fight the far more brutal al-Assad regime? Sending ground troops to Syria seems to be a new approach. This is the first time when there is willingness from the Saudi side to participate in a ground offensive to fight ISIS in Syria. In the past, there were talks of the country’s willingness to intervene, without specifying the nature of the tasks. However, Saudi Arabia has already been part of the war in Syria since last year as a member of the U.S.-led coalition conducting air strikes against terror outfits.
Saudi Arabia has already been part of the war in Syria since last year as a member of the international coalition conducting airstrikes against terror outfits. There is another reason behind Saudi Arabia fighting as part of the U.S.-led coalition. Like Russia, it either has the approval of the Assad regime – which is impossible for Riyadh and highly unlikely to get a nod from Damascus anyway – or it should have the authorization of the United Nations as is currently the case with Yemen, where Saudi troops are fighting with the approval of the Security Council. Thus, the coalition receives legal cover and represents an integrated system of countries. It is also clear why Saudi Arabia is interested in fighting against ISIS in Syria. Like many other countries, it is aware that the organization will try and target the country at some stage. It is believed that hundreds of brainwashed Saudis are fighting there and some have even tried to return and carry out terrorist attacks inside Saudi Arabia. The rationale on which ISIS would like to target Saudi Arabia are explicit and similar to those of al-Qaeda.
Choosing the fight
The most significant question is why do we fight ISIS and leave the Assad regime that has committed the most heinous crimes in the history of the region? First of all, Saudi Arabia is not a neighboring country to Syria, as Iraq and Jordan separate both the countries. Moreover, Saudi Arabia cannot fight there without an international authorization or it will be considered as conducting an act of aggression that would engender serious consequences. Turkey has been fighting ISIS inside Iraq and Syria but not the Syrian regime, despite being enraged by it since the crisis began five years ago. Turkey has the longest border with Syria and, with 700,000 professional soldiers, it has one of the largest armies in the world. Its army would reach a million people if one adds reserves. Despite all that, Turkey is committed to international laws and has not intervened militarily. Fighting ISIS is not just a military process; it is a political one too. By eradicating ISIS, the Russians and Iranians won’t have an excuse to destroy the national Syrian opposition that has nothing to do with extremist groups and foreign fighters. Weakening ISIS by eliminating most of its fighters, will improve the situation of the Syrian resistance, which has long been targeted by extremists and Assad forces and his allies. This is what we are witnessing in Deraa in the south, where the Syrian regime’s allies are actively targeting the Free Syrian Army (FSA) under the pretext that they are an extremist organization. By putting the statement of Brigadier General al-Assiri in context, it will be clear that Saudi Arabia is ready to conduct land operations in Syria based on two conditions – the international will and the presence of a large military system.

Under the watchful Western eyes, Syria unravels
Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/February 06/16
Once again tens of thousands of Syrians are being uprooted and forced to flee their ancestral lands around the ancient city of Aleppo by the incessant assaults waged against them by the government that claims to represent them in Damascus. The country roads leading to the Turkish borders are being traversed by haggard people carrying with them remnants of shattered lives, dragging little children shivering in February’s cold, wandering under the last skies of Syria, and wondering if they will ever return. Syria’s northern skies have been given by the Assad regime to Russia’s prowling bombers which have been spewing deadly fires and cluster bombs indiscriminately against areas controlled by the opposition groups. The ground has been given to marauding fighters from neighboring Lebanon and Iraq and from as far away as Afghanistan and other Central Asian states, in what can only be called a new “Shiite Internationale”, to help a minority regime bereft of the manpower needed to retake and subdue the rebellious country.
Power of diplomacy
Those in the West, particularly in the United States, who may have allowed themselves to entertain the scandalous notion that things could not get worse in Syria, should be forced to see the blank and numb faces of people on the move who are already beyond pain and hope, to realize the folly of their wishful thinking. Syria’s new tragic chapter is unfolding under watchful but helpless Western eyes. Secretary of State John Kerry, who has a deep and almost mystical belief in the power of diplomacy to settle violent disputes, a belief based on the naïve assumption that his peers are as rational and as well-meaning like him, found himself doing what he does best with Russia; pleading for cooperation, and reminding Russians of their obligation to enforce the U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254 that they co-sponsored to provide a roadmap to a political agreement. Is Kerry saying that after 300,000 dead (mostly Syrians) over 4 million refugees and more than one third of Syrians displaced internally, he still does not know who is serious and who is not?
White House press secretary Josh Earnest was truly earnest when he borrowed one of Kerry’s retorts, reminding the Russians that their “military strategy inside of Syria undermines the goals of their political strategy”. If only those obtuse Russians would listen to us explaining to them how best to reconcile their seemingly contradictory goals. The naiveté of this political position is matched only by the immense self-deception the Obama administration shared with many Syria “hands” in academe claiming that there is no ‘military’ solution to the civil war in Syria. The American Civil War, the country’s most wrenching and bloody existential threat was settled by the application of uncompromising violence advocated by President Abraham Lincoln, a visionary and a man of peace. But, beyond the fact that many a civil war was settled by force, and beyond the fact that President Obama even under the best favorable conditions for the use of (limited) military force against Syria in the summer of 2013, before he infamously balked, today we find Russia, Iran and the Assad regime bent of fighting, even when they claim to be negotiating.
‘Essential Syria’
The quick convening and suspension of the Geneva III “proximity talks” brought to the fore once again, the Obama administration’s eagerness to get the talks underway under the fog of ambiguity, obfuscation and contradictory interpretations of the terms of reference, with the hope that the “process” of indirect talks will lead to serious face to face negotiations. The Russia/Iran/Assad axis from the beginning wanted to use the talks as a cover to continue its assaults on key targeted areas, to consolidate what the regime and its apologists call “essential Syria”, that is the area stretching from the South, then Damascus, and along a “corridor” along the full length of Syrian-Lebanese borders, all the way to Homs, Hama, the whole majority Alawite coastal region and ultimately Aleppo and maybe link up with Kurdish groups along the borders with Turkey. Most of those Syrians remaining in the country live within this useful area, and those who live in the eastern and central parts of the country will be left mostly to the mercy of ISIS and other jihadi groups.
The Geneva fiasco
For five years the Obama administration has displayed a remarkable rigidity in its position on Syria. The United States will not alter its opposition to deploying even a limited fighting force in Syria - other than the occasional and temporary deployment of small numbers of Special Forces for reconnaissance and operations against ISIS targets and leaders - regardless of what happens on the ground. This remains the case despite even Assad’s use of chemical weapons, or Russia’s military intervention, or even the growing Iranian/Hezbollah involvement in Syria. It is clear by now that President Vladimir Putin, Ayatollah Khamenei and Bashar Assad have taken the measure of the American president and are convinced that he will not extract a price from them, directly or indirectly. Why would Secretary Kerry for one moment believe that any member of the infamous axis, particularly when they are doing relatively well militarily, will negotiate in good faith?
What would happen if the U.S. and its regional allies decided to provide lethal defensive weapons, say effective anti-aircraft missiles to deny Russia mastery of the skies of northern Syria? The TOW anti-tank missiles the U.S. provided earlier to small opposition groups were very effective against Assad’s tanks.
After the collapse of Geneva III, Secretary Kerry was quoted as saying that he had a “robust” conversation with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov regarding Russia’s supposed commitment to a political resolution in Syria, then he added that talks are continuing in search of a ceasefire, and that the next few days would determine if “people are serious, or people are not serious”. So, is Kerry saying that after 300,000 dead (mostly Syrians) more than 4 million refugees and more than one third of Syrians displaced internally, he still does not know who is serious and who is not? It is also astonishing that Kerry would accept to participate in such talks without the clear Russian/Syrian explicit acceptance of the terms of U.N. Security Council resolution 2254, including its humanitarian and ceasefire aspects. Negotiations among warring parties always reflect the realities on the battlefield. This was true throughout history and regardless of the cultures of the warring parties.
The axiom of conflicts is immortalized by the great Greek historian Thucydides in the famous Melian Dialogue in The History of the Peloponnesian War. The Melians, who were defeated by the powerful Athenians, were told that “the strong do what they have the power to do and the weak accept what they are forced to accept”. This is precisely how the Putin/Assad/Khamenei gang sees the outcome of the conflict in Syria. Pleading, beseeching, appealing and imploring them in this context is tantamount to capitulation. But since President Obama is unwilling to entertain any military option to extract a price from the Putin/Assad/Khamenei gang, Secretary Kerry will continue his quixotic diplomatic “tilting at windmills.”
The sacking of Aleppo
Tamerlane was the last conqueror to sack Aleppo in 1400. His hordes overran the city very quickly, but their deeds were violent and merciless. Those who have been laying siege to one of the most treasured cities in the Middle East and slowly sacking its historic neighborhoods in the last five years, are mostly local killers with some help from foreign hordes. Many of them are in the service of the ruler of Damascus. We are witnessing and will continue to witness the sacking of a great city, and the deed will be recorded, and documented with the requisite drones giving us a bird’s-eye view, of those killed because they resisted, of the books, stones, woods, and glass that where once libraries, forts, museums, graceful streets and homes, churches and mosques and schools, the very stuff of one layer of civilization on top of another. The destruction so far is heartbreaking. Now the focus and fear is on a besieged population.
Now that Russia and Assad’s new foreign legionnaires have all but pummeled from the air and surrounded the famed city on the ground, we are seeing the depopulation of a city that has been inhabited for many millennia. The new hordes may use modern weaponry and communication gear and can produce slick videos to post on youtube, but their tactics of “starve or surrender” are as medieval. A new river of refugees will run through the Syrian countryside to nearby Turkey first, but then will form new tributaries to other countries. An anxious Europe will watch with trepidation, and Lebanon and Jordan will get closer and closer to the day of reckoning when they could collapse under the weight of desperate and sullen refugees who see no hope or consolation. The United States and the countries of the European Union and regional powers will provide more funds to those countries hosting the refugees, as they did during the recent London conference of the donor countries, but this support could only prolong the agony. Because the regional countries cannot by themselves contain the slow collapse of whole societies, Western involvement is imperative. In the summer of 2013, when President Obama reneged on his commitment to militarily punish the Assad regime, the threat of ISIS was limited. Today the American president is contemplating the use of limited military force against ISIS positions and leaders in Libya, a stone’s throw away from southern Europe. Had President Obama been bolder in sticking to his pledges to Syria and Libya, we may not be now witnessing the slow death of a once shining jewel named Aleppo.

Refugees as entrepreneurs, but where are work permits?
Yara al-Wazir//Al Arabiya/February 06/16
Earlier this week, a sum of $10 billion was pledged at a donors’ conference in London to ease the plight of Syrian refugees affected by the ongoing conflict. Although this was necessary in the short term, it must be recognized that the most sustainable framework to ensure the dignity of Syrian refugees is granting them the right to full employment. As host governments have resisted work permits to those fleeing conflict zones, a large number of refugees have taken matters into their own hands and have decided to showcase their entrepreneurial spirit. Some have taken to Skype to teach Arabic through a platform called NaTakallam. Some refugees based in Lebanon, for instance, earn as much as $15 per hour by teaching Arabic.
If refugees are given the opportunity to settle in and assimilate culturally, they will eventually pay back to the society
Ironically, the situation that has left refugees in the situation that they find themselves in has also attracted foreigners to learn the language. Unfortunately, Damascus and Cairo, the cities that once hosted hundreds of Arabic language students may no longer be seen as safe and secure.
Therefore, this platform is doing an exceptional job of spreading the learning of the Arabic language while maintaining the livelihoods of refugees. In other locations, refugees are taking to the age-old tradition of pastry making and bringing Syrian food to their communities and restaurants and craftsmen are attempting to recreate “historic jewels”. All this is fine but can only be the stepping-stone to change in approach. This entrepreneurial spirit is excellent in helping refugees earn a living and, more importantly, becoming self-sufficient. By taking to this, they are demonstrating their ability to contribute back into the countries that host them.
Entrepreneurial tendencies
It is not surprising that desperate times have created a determination. Research from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) suggests that refugees report the highest proportion of their incomes from their personal unincorporated businesses. For host governments, this is the prime example of refugees being an opportunity rather than a challenge. If refugees are given the opportunity to settle in and assimilate culturally, they will eventually pay back to the society. In Europe and the rest of the Western world, declaring income is automatically followed by tax payment, which means an increase in flow of funds to the government. As refugees make for the best entrepreneurs, it is in the host government’s interest to finance refugees’ businesses and help them.
Right to work
Many refugees are turning to entrepreneurship to generate income but this is not always stable, especially in the early stages. Refugees must still be granted the legal right to work. Research by the International Labour Organization (ILO) suggests that the major hurdle to obtaining a work permit is the cost of application. Additionally, an application does not guarantee that a permit will be issued. For instance, of the 18 percent of Syrian refugees outside Zaatari camp in Jordan who applied for the work permit, only 40 percent were actually granted these permits. While the UNHCR’s 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees directly addresses the need to grant refugees the right to full employment, this is not enforced in practice. The difficulties and hurdles associated with obtaining a legal work permit push refugees into the black market of jobs. This makes them vulnerable to overwork and underpayment. It also means they don’t have a stable income. Without a self-sufficient stable income to rely on, refugees are turning to the states for hand-outs, further straining government and public funds. Although much of this money comes in the form of international aid, relying on public funds is unsustainable in the long run and refugees must be given the opportunity to fund their own livelihoods.