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Enter through the narrow gate; for the gate is wide and the road is easy that leads to destruction, and there are many who take it
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 07/13-27: "‘Enter through the narrow gate; for the gate is wide and the road is easy that leads to destruction, and there are many who take it. For the gate is narrow and the road is hard that leads to life, and there are few who find it. ‘Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing but inwardly are ravenous wolves. You will know them by their fruits. Are grapes gathered from thorns, or figs from thistles? In the same way, every good tree bears good fruit, but the bad tree bears bad fruit. A good tree cannot bear bad fruit, nor can a bad tree bear good fruit. Every tree that does not bear good fruit is cut down and thrown into the fire. Thus you will know them by their fruits. ‘Not everyone who says to me, "Lord, Lord", will enter the kingdom of heaven, but only one who does the will of my Father in heaven. On that day many will say to me, "Lord, Lord, did we not prophesy in your name, and cast out demons in your name, and do many deeds of power in your name? " Then I will declare to them, "I never knew you; go away from me, you evildoers."‘Everyone then who hears these words of mine and acts on them will be like a wise man who built his house on rock. The rain fell, the floods came, and the winds blew and beat on that house, but it did not fall, because it had been founded on rock. And everyone who hears these words of mine and does not act on them will be like a foolish man who built his house on sand.
The rain fell, and the floods came, and the winds blew and beat against that house, and it fell and great was its fall!’

Take note of those who do not obey what we say in this letter; have nothing to do with them, so that they may be ashamed.
Second Letter to the Thessalonians 03/06-14: "We command you, beloved, in the name of our Lord Jesus Christ, to keep away from believers who are living in idleness and not according to the tradition that they received from us. For you yourselves know how you ought to imitate us; we were not idle when we were with you, and we did not eat anyone’s bread without paying for it; but with toil and labour we worked night and day, so that we might not burden any of you. This was not because we do not have that right, but in order to give you an example to imitate. For even when we were with you, we gave you this command: Anyone unwilling to work should not eat. For we hear that some of you are living in idleness, mere busybodies, not doing any work. Now such persons we command and exhort in the Lord Jesus Christ to do their work quietly and to earn their own living. Brothers and sisters, do not be weary in doing what is right. Take note of those who do not obey what we say in this letter; have nothing to do with them, so that they may be ashamed.

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 12/16
Hezbollah’s drug trafficking/Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 11/16
Are the Saudis ready to fight in Syria/Madawi Al-Rasheed/Al-Monitor/February 11/16
Relax: Islam Only Sometimes Allows Muslims to Enslave, Rape, and Rob Infidels, Says Female Muslim Professor/Raymond Ibrahim /PJ Media/February 10, 2016
Turkey's Haunted Border with Syria/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/February 11/16
Israel's Arabs: A Tale of Betrayal/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/February 11/16
The Many Mideast Solutions/Thomas L. Friedman/The New York Times/February 10/16
Israeli minister: After Abbas, there will be no more Palestinian Authority/Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/February 11/16
What's next for Syria/Vitaly Naumkin/Al-Monitor/February 11/16
Iran reacts to Saudi's offer of troops in Syria/Ali Hashem/Al-Monitor/February 11/16
Iran defends its support for Syria, Iraq/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/February 11/16
Establishing a state that suits Assad/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/February 11/16
The UAE’s Ministry of Happiness/Mohammed Fahad al-Harthi/Al Arabiya/February 11/16
Hamas, Israel digging in for another war/Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/February 11/16

Hezbollah’s drug trafficking
Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 11/16
Terrorism and drug trafficking have always gone hand in hand considering they are transnational crimes. Hezbollah’s financial dependence on drug trafficking gets clearer every day. On Feb. 2, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration said one of its international operations had succeeded in detaining members of a network linked to the Lebanese party. Terrorists trade in everything. They are rogue gangs. They only differ in their religious slogans, which they use to embellish their hideous acts. What they are doing is evil. The network is involved in smuggling and dealing drugs that are worth millions of dollars, to finance terror operations in Lebanon and Syria. During the past 25 years, there have many links between terrorism and drug dealing. From the 43 organizations that are officially defined (by Saudi Arabia) as foreign terrorist organizations, 19 are linked to drug trafficking.
Other organizations
The Captagon factories in Lebanon that are linked to Hezbollah have become a much-discussed subject among Lebanese. Al-Qaeda has also resorted to manufacturing and dealing drugs in Afghanistan and Africa. The International Business Times reported that cocaine is one of the major funding sources of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and other terrorist organizations in North Africa. Terrorists trade in everything. They are rogue gangs. They only differ in their religious slogans, which they use to embellish their hideous acts. What they are doing is evil.

Lebanese Cabinet Approves Funding of Trash Export Plan
Naharnet/February 11/16/The government reached an agreement on Thursday over the funding of the months-long trash disposal crisis. The cabinet will dedicate 50 million dollars for the export of the waste. The funds will be referred to the Development and Construction Council, said Information Minister Ramzi Jreij after the cabinet session that was held at the Grand Serail. Head of the Council, Nabil al-Jisr, revealed that the 50 million dollars will cover the first six months of the plan and that they will be sent to Russia, reported Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5). The government will meet again on February 18. Lebanon has been suffering from a waste management crisis since the closure of the Naameh landfill in July 2015. The closure resulted in the pile up of garbage on the streets throughout the country as experts warned of the environmental and health hazards of the crisis. The cabinet agreed in late 2015 to export the trash after repeated efforts to establish new landfills failed.

Army Arrests Terror Suspect in Sidon
Naharnet/February 11/16/The Lebanese army said on Thursday it has arrested a terrorist suspect and eight other people on suspicion of carrying out different crimes. An intelligence patrol apprehended a Lebanese national on suspicion of having ties with terrorist groups in the area of Seeroub in the southern city of Sidon, the army said in a communique. The military also arrested in the Beirut neighborhoods of Ghubairi, Shiyyah and Qasqas eight Lebanese, some of them wanted on shooting charges and others for the possession of drugs, guns and unlicensed vehicles. An army unit also seized old mines and rockets hidden in a cave on the outskirts of the town of Abey in Aley district, said the communique.It added that the suspects were referred to the appropriate authorities and the ammunition was taken to a safe area.

Hugo Shorter Says It's Time to Hold Presidential Elections
Naharnet/February 11/16/British Ambassador Designate Hugo Shorter held the Lebanese responsible for the country's political crisis, saying they should resort to voting to elect a president. “There are currently two candidates who have high credibility and huge support from the political parties,” Shorter told As Safir newspaper in an interview published on Thursday. “I think it's time to hold the elections. This is democracy. It means resorting to voting without anticipating the results,” he said. “The Lebanese are responsible for what's going on in their country,” the diplomat told As Safir. “Had they wanted a president they would have elected him. Of course there are regional interests but the Lebanese are in charge of the polls,” he said, adding “there is no reason to postpone the elections.”The two main candidates in the presidential race are Free Patriotic Movement founder MP Michel Aoun and Marada Movement chief lawmaker Suleiman Franjieh. A third candidate, MP Henri Helou, is from Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblat's Democratic Gathering bloc. The differences between the rival parties have left Baabda Palace vacant since the end of President Michel Suleiman's six-year term ended in May 2014.
Asked about British support for Syrian refugees, Shorter said the UK will invest at least an extra $1.8 billion in international aid to support Syria and the region.The pledge was made last week when high-level representatives from 70 countries, including Prime Minister Tammam Salam, and international organizations gathered in London for the Supporting Syria and the Region Conference to debate backing for the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis. Shorter confirmed that the Syrian refugees in Lebanon will return home as soon as it is safe to do so. “There is no intention to naturalize the displaced outside Syria,” he stressed. “We are preparing them to return to their country … by providing them with education and the necessary technical skills,” he said. There are fears that the international community would encourage the displaced Syrians to remain in the host countries, such as Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan after world leaders approved at the conference to improve education opportunities for the refugees and to create short-term jobs to help them survive in the overburdened Middle Eastern states.

Hizbullah Kills 3 Nusra Militants in Arsal Outskirts
Naharnet/February 11/16/Three militants from the Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front were killed Thursday in a Hizbullah attack in the outskirts of the northeastern border town of Arsal, Hizbullah's al-Manar and other TV networks reported. Hizbullah fighters targeted a group of Nusra militants in the Arsal outskirts area of Harf Wadi al-Kheil, killing three and wounding several others, the reports said. Militants from al-Nusra and the Islamic State jihadist group are entrenched in mountainous regions in Arsal's outskirts and along the porous Lebanese-Syrian border. The Lebanese army regularly shells their positions and Hizbullah fighters frequently engage in clashes with them on the Syrian side of the border. The militants clash with the army occasionally but a major confrontation erupted in August 2014 when the two groups overran Arsal in the wake of the arrest of a senior IS leader. Nineteen soldiers and around 60 militants were killed in the fighting. The jihadists of the two groups also abducted dozens of troops and policemen of which four were eventually executed.

Rifi Withdraws from Cabinet for its Failure to Refer Samaha Case to Judicial Council amid Hariri Opposition
Naharnet/February 11/16/Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi withdrew on Thursday from a cabinet session after it failed for a third time to address referring the case of former Minister Michel Samaha to the Judicial Council. He said from the Grand Serail: “I will return to cabinet once this issue is the first article on its agenda.” His stance was however rejected by head of the Mustaqbal Movement MP Saad Hariri. Rifi accused certain political powers of hindering efforts to refer the case to the Judicial Council, while noting that the Kataeb ministers backed his stance. LBCI television said that Rifi has effectively suspended his participation in government. The minister revealed that he is weighing three options in the Samaha case. The first calls for referring it to the International Criminal Court and the second calls for referring it to Canada seeing as the official holds Canadian citizenship. The third option lies in turning to Spain or Belgium whose justice systems allow the pursuit of international crimes, explained LBCI. “These options are all sound legally,” Rifi told reporters after he exited the cabinet. “We will not act as false witnesses in such a case. Justice should be achieved in Lebanon otherwise we will never be able to build a proper nation,” he continued. He vowed: “I will not give up until justice is achieved, no matter the cost.” Soon after Rifi's withdrawal, Hariri announced via Twitter: “His stance does not represent me and no one should challenge us regarding the assassination of former Internal Security Forces Intelligence Bureau chief Wissam al-Hassan or the trial of Samaha.”“Everyone who committed a crime will be punished,” he added. Hassan was killed in a bombing in Beirut in 2012. The efforts of the Intelligence Bureau were seen as key to Samaha's arrest earlier that year.
The former minister was released from prison earlier his year under a controversial Military Court ruling that sent shockwaves across the country. Samaha, who was information minister from 1992 to 1995, was released in exchange for a bail payment of 150 million Lebanese pounds. Under his bail conditions, Samaha, 67, was barred from leaving the country for at least one year, speaking to the press or using social media. The ex-minister was arrested in August 2012 and charged with attempting to carry out "terrorist acts." He was sentenced in May 2015 to four-and-half years in prison, but in June, the Cassation Court nullified the verdict and ordered a retrial. Samaha, an ex-adviser to Syrian President Bashar Assad, admitted during his trial that he had transported the explosives from Syria for use in attacks in Lebanon. He, however, argued he should be acquitted because he was a victim of entrapment by a Lebanese security services informer identified as Milad Kfoury.

Berri: Divisions among Alliances a Madhouse
Naharnet/February 11/16/Speaker Nabih Berri stated on Thursday that a solution to the controversial file of the presidency is no longer in the hands of the Lebanese and that a Saudi-Iranian dialogue could be the secret “potion” for this hurdle. “The antidote to elect a president of the republic is no longer a Lebanese decision. It seems that the only chance we have now lies in a Saudi-Iranian dialogue. It apparently seems to be the only potion,” Berri told al-Akhbar daily in an interview. “We have long awaited for a Lebanese agreement in order to keep this entitlement within this range, but it pitifully failed,” added the Speaker. The 35th session to elect a president to fill the 20-month vacuum at the top state post was postponed on Monday following a lack of quorum at parliament. The seat has been vacant since the term of President Michel Suleiman ended in May 2014. Conflicts among the rival March 8 and March 14 alliances have thwarted all attempts aiming at electing a successor. Berri noted: “The contradictory positions and divisions among political factions is madness and schizophrenia. It's a madhouse.” “The March 14 alliance are not the same, nor is the March 8 camp. They are divided, or almost divided over the candidates for the presidential race which did not lead to positive outcomes or a solution for the presidential crisis,” he concluded. Some observers were optimistic that a head of state would have been elected during Monday's session following Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea's endorsement of his longtime rival Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun as president. Over the weekend however, Hizbullah, Aoun's main ally, announced that its lawmakers will not attend the electoral session unless an agreement is reached to elect the MP. Marada movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh is also a candidate after his unofficial nomination by al-Mustaqbal movement chief Saad Hariri.

Report: Ain el-Hilweh Fighters Travel to Raqqa to Join IS
Naharnet/February 11/16/More than a dozen young men have headed from the Palestinian refugee camp of Ain el-Hilweh in southern Lebanon to Syria to join the extremist Islamic State group, al-Akhbar daily reported on Thursday. The newspaper quoted their families and the Palestinian factions at the camp as saying that around 15 men traveled on Sunday to Turkey from where they headed to Raqqa, the IS's de facto capital in northern Syria. Scores of fighters have headed from Lebanon to Syria to join rebels seeking to topple the Syrian regime. Hizbullah has also sent fighters to Syria to help the regime of President Bashar Assad. In December, the IS released a message purportedly from its reclusive leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, claiming that his self-styled "caliphate" is doing well despite an unprecedented alliance against it.

Australia Mulls Helping Orphans of Lebanese Islamic State Fighter
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/February 11/16/Australia said Thursday it will "carefully consider" if it can help the orphans of a Lebanese-Australian Islamic State fighter and their Sydney-born mother, who both reportedly died in Syria, warning the children could pose a threat later in life. Tara Nettleton, whose husband Khaled Sharrouf made headlines in 2014 when he posted an image on Twitter of his then seven-year-old son holding a severed head, died from appendicitis or a kidney condition, the Sydney Morning Herald and other media reported. Sharrouf is widely believed to have been killed in a drone strike last year in Iraq, an attack in which fellow Australian jihadist Mohamed Elomar also perished. The family's lawyer Charles Waterstreet told Agence France Presse the couple's five children, aged between five and 14, were trapped in an undisclosed part of Syria and in "grave danger.” The 14-year-old girl, named in Australian media as Zaynab, gave birth to a child two months ago fathered by Elomar and was also looking after her younger siblings, Waterstreet said. "They are in grave danger. We've been in contact with them and there's bombs falling everywhere and people are starving in the streets," the Sydney-based lawyer said, adding the children told their grandmother Karen Nettleton they "want to get out" of Syria. "Both their father and their mother are dead and they're victims stuck in a hellhole and they're Australians, and we should be doing everything we can to get them out."Media reports said Nettleton might have died last year, with her mother only informed in the last two weeks. Immigration Minister Peter Dutton said he was not able to confirm her death, although all Australians were provided with consular assistance regardless of their circumstances. But he warned the children's experiences since they were taken to Syria by their mother in 2014 to join their father, who left Australia in 2013, could influence the government's decision on whether they could return home. "The conditions under which people are brought back into our country would have to be considered very carefully," he told Sydney radio station 2GB. "Obviously any parent who is dangerous enough, crazy enough, to take young, impressionable children into that sort of an area obviously scars those children for life. "So ultimately the government's clear objective is to keep the Australian public safe and we'd have to look at the individual circumstances to see what the kids may have been through, what they've been exposed to, whether or not later in life they pose a threat." Up to 49 Australians have been killed in the conflict in Iraq and Syria, with an estimated 110 nationals currently fighting or working with militant groups, domestic spy chief Duncan Lewis told a parliamentary hearing this week. Some 190 Australians were actively supporting IS back home through fundraising, and some also hoped to join such groups in the Middle East, Lewis added.

Bkirki Meeting on Marginalization of Christians Postponed
Naharnet/February 11/16/A meeting that was set to take place in Bkirki among Christian cabinet ministers on Friday to discuss the marginalization of Christians in civil service has been postponed, Bishop Boulos Sayyah said. “The meeting was postponed and was replaced by bilateral talks with cabinet ministers to resolve the crisis of the absence of Christians from state institutions,” Sayyah told al-Joumhouria daily published Thursday. “Christian ministers and lawmakers are making contacts and doing what is necessary to rectify the imbalance in the institutions,” he said. “We can no longer hide this crisis that blew up recently and is being discussed a lot in the media,” added the bishop. Sayyah denied that Muslim religious officials had pressured Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi to postpone Friday's meeting. The issue has been in the public eye in the past years but it gained momentum when ministers from Speaker Nabih Berri’s Amal movement were accused of marginalizing Christians despite their denial. Last week, the council of Maronite bishops called for a balanced participation of all sects in state institutions.
The employment of civil servants from all sects should also “be based on competency, integrity and the willingness to fight corruption, which has become rampant in most institutions,” they said

Hizbullah, Mustaqbal Discuss Region Developments, Stress Need to Protect Stability
Naharnet/February 11/16/Hizbullah and al-Mustaqbal movement discussed the rapid regional developments during their dialogue session on Thursday and stressed the need to protect Lebanon's stability. The conferees “tackled the ongoing developments in the region and the possible repercussions on Lebanon,” the two parties said in a statement issued after their 24th dialogue session in Ain al-Tineh. “There is a need, more than ever, to preserve and protect domestic stability,” they said. The two parties also addressed “the economic and financial situations and the need for serious reform measures,” while highlighting the importance of “regularizing the cabinet's work and productivity.” Hizbullah and Mustaqbal have said that their dialogue sessions are mainly aimed at defusing Sunni-Shiite tensions in the country, although they support rival regional forces. Tensions have surged in the region in recent months amid raging military conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Iraq and a sectarian flareup between Iran and the Gulf states. Hizbullah is part of a military alliance in Syria that has achieved gains on all fronts in recent weeks backed by a sweeping Russian air campaign. Some Gulf states have also proposed to enter the conflict under a U.S. command, which has prompted Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to warn against a "new world war."

Former French PM Ayrault Named Foreign Minister in Govt. Shake-up
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/February 11/16/French President Francois Hollande reshuffled his cabinet Thursday, naming Jean-Marc Ayrault foreign minister and adding several ecologists to government as he seeks to widen his political base ahead of a presidential poll in 2017. Ayrault, a 66-year-old former prime minister, will become France's top diplomat after veteran politician Laurent Fabius bowed out of politics to take up a post at the Constitutional Council. A fluent German speaker, Ayrault's understanding of the language and culture will be seen as an advantage in dealing with Berlin and the most pressing issues facing the European Union, such as the migration crisis. He was chosen over environment minister Segolene Royal, the mother of Hollande's four children, who was touted as a candidate for the high-profile post. In a minor shake-up of his Socialist government, Hollande also named a member of the French Greens Party (EELV), Emmanuelle Cosse, as housing minister and included two other ecologist politicians as under-secretaries in the new government. The move is widely seen as a bid to rally those on the left of the political spectrum ahead of the 2017 election, in which the deeply unpopular Hollande is seeking a second term. Hollande "must increase his political base at all costs", a source close to the president said ahead of the reshuffle announcement, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We can't face a presidential election without a Socialist family rallied behind their candidate and without the ecologists," said a source close to the president.France's Greens Party refused to take part in government in 2014 after Manuel Valls -- considered to be on the right of the Socialist Party -- was named prime minister, and has been divided ever since over whether they should return to the fold.
The 61-year-old Hollande, elected in 2012, has had a torrid first term, lumbered with record unemployment, a stagnating economy and France's worst-ever terror attacks.
He already carried out a major government shake-up in 2014 after the Socialists took a drubbing in municipal elections. Ayrault was ditched as prime minister in that reshuffle after two years in the job in favor of Valls, his new boss. Regional elections at the end of 2015 did not go much better, with the center-right Republicans of former president Nicolas Sarkozy coming out in front. The most unpopular French president in history, Hollande saw his star rise after the jihadist attacks against Charlie Hebdo newspaper and a Jewish supermarket in January 2015. It rose again after he took a tough line on security following the attacks by gunmen and suicide bombers that killed 130 people in Paris in November. However this time his rise was short-lived, as praise for his post-attacks approach quickly turned to criticism both from within his own party and the conservative opposition. Efforts to enshrine tough new security measures in the constitution, and a hotly contested reform to strip convicted terrorists of their French nationality, have been deeply divisive. Efforts to kickstart a flagging economy with a raft of reforms last year led to a similar criticism of a shift in ideology, with a rebellious fringe of the Socialists accusing the Valls government of being too pro-business. The dissent in the corridors of power has left voters cold. An opinion poll by the Liberation newspaper published this week showed some 75 percent of people do not want Hollande to be re-elected. Record unemployment figures of about 10 percent are also haunting Hollande, who vowed at the start of his mandate that he would not run again if he failed to improve the jobless rate. In another blow to Hollande's hopes to unite the left ahead of the 2017 election, the leader of the radical Left Party, Jean-Luc Melenchon, who won 11 percent of votes in 2012, announced Wednesday he would run for president. "I don't think this is convenient for the left or the ecologists," said government spokesman Stephane Le Foll.

Lavrov: Russia Has Made 'Quite Specific' Proposal on Syria Ceasefire
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/February 11/16/Russia has made a "quite specific" proposal for a ceasefire in Syria and is awaiting a U.S. response, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday. "We made propositions for a ceasefire that are quite specific," he said as he sat down for talks with his U.S. counterpart John Kerry in Munich. "We will wait for the American response before we take it to the (International Syria Support Group)." The U.N. says 51,000 Syrians have fled the bombardment of the city of Aleppo by government forces, backed by Russian bombers and Iranian fighters. "We're going to have a serious conversation about all aspects about what's happening in Syria. Obviously, at some point in time, we want to make progress on the issues of humanitarian access and ceasefire," Kerry said. Kerry and Lavrov will host foreign ministers from the 17-nation Syria contact group later Thursday, for a meeting billed as a moment of truth for the floundering peace process.

U.S. Says Russian Support for Assad Has 'Exacerbated' Conflict
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/February 11/16/The United States on Thursday accused Russia of worsening the brutal Syrian conflict with its military action in support of President Bashar Assad, as international talks unfolded in Munich on ways to resolve the crisis.
"It has been Russian support for the Assad regime over the past months, and most recently in the siege on Aleppo, that has exacerbated, intensified the conflict," State Department deputy spokesman Mark Toner told reporters.

Russia Drops Aid on Besieged Syrian City
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/February 11/16/Russian cargo planes have delivered humanitarian aid to regime-held neighborhoods in Syria's eastern Deir Ezzor city, a monitor said Thursday. They carried out the air drops on areas besieged by the Islamic State (IS) jihadist group on Wednesday, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. State news agency SANA quoted a Syrian Arab Red Crescent official as saying "37.5 tons of food aid arrived in Deir Ezzor" in the first batch of an expected 90 tonnes of aid to reach the city. The jihadists control 60 percent of Deir Ezzor city, where more than 200,000 people still live. Around 70 percent of its remaining residents are women and children, according to the United Nations. IS has controlled most of the oil-rich Deir Ezzor province since 2013, with the regime clinging on to parts of its provincial capital and its airport. Nearly half a million people live under siege in Syria, the U.N. said in January. Russia launched air strikes in support of Syria's government on September 30. Syria's conflict has claimed 260,000 lives and displaced half the population since March 2011.

Saudi’s decision to send troops in Syria ‘final’
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Thursday, 11 February 2016/Saudi’s decision to send troops to Syria in an attempt to bolster and toughen efforts against militants is “final” and “irreversible,” the Saudi military spokesman announced on Thursday. Brig. Gen. Ahmed Al-Assiri, said that Riyadh is “ready” and will fight with its U.S.-led coalition allies to defeat ISIS militants in Syria, however, he said Washington is more suitable to answer questions on further details about any future ground operations. “We are representing Saudi’s [decision] only” in sending troops, he said. He also sent a message to Iran, saying that if Tehran is serious in fighting ISIS, then it must stop supporting “terrorism” in Syria or Yemen. Riyadh has long accused Tehran of supporting the Houthi militia in Yemen against the internationally-recognized government there. Iran is also a key ally to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The statement comes as Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman visited NATO headquarters in Brussels to discuss the Syrian civil war. The military spokesman also said that the Islamic Military Alliance will take effect within two months. Thirty-five Muslim countries released a joint statement announcing the formation of the alliance against terrorism in December last year.
The alliance’s joint command center is located in the Saudi capital Riyadh.

NATO ‘exploring possibility’ of joining anti-ISIS coalition: U.S.
AFP, Brussels Thursday, 11 February 2016/NATO is considering joining the US-led coalition fighting ISIS militants in Syria and Iraq, U.S. Defence Secretary Ashton Carter said Thursday. “Thanks to the leadership of NATO (head) Jens Stoltenberg we are exploring the possibility of NATO joining the coalition as a member itself,” Carter said after a meeting of the coalition in Brussels. The coalition already includes all 28 NATO member states individually, but not the alliance in its own right.

Turkey-Israel talks to restore ties ‘going well’
Reuters, Ankara Thursday, 11 February 2016/Talks between Turkey and Israel to mend fences are going well but a deal has not yet been reached in efforts to improve relations and increase energy cooperation in the eastern Mediterranean, Turkey’s ruling AK Party spokesman said. “We have information that the talks are going well but unless we see practical implications of the talks, we cannot say it’s a done deal,” Omer Celik told reporters in Ankara. Turkey was once Israel’s closest regional ally but ties collapsed in 2010 over the killing by Israeli marines of 10 Turkish pro-Palestinian activists who tried to breach the Gaza blockade. Though Israel accused the Islamist-rooted AK Party of siding with Palestinian Hamas militants, Israeli and Turkish leaders reconciled in a 2013 phone conversation arranged by U.S. President Barack Obama. A formal restoration of relations has proven elusive, however. Diplomats say Turkey wants an end to the Gaza blockade that Israel deems necessary for preventing Palestinian arms-smuggling, while Israel wants Ankara to disengage from Hamas. “Turkey is supporting Hamas, generally speaking. It should be, of course, discussed,” Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon told reporters during a visit to Switzerland. “I’m not sure that we are going to reach settlement. It may be, but they have to address our conditions for any political settlement in order to overcome this obstacle.”

U.S. Pushing for 'Immediate Ceasefire' in Syria
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/February 11/16/The United States is pushing for an immediate ceasefire in Syria, a U.S. diplomat said here Thursday as foreign ministers gathered in Munich for crisis talks on the Syrian civil war. "The U.S. continues to push for an immediate ceasefire. We are continuing to work through various ways to achieve one as soon as possible," the diplomat said. The comment came in response to reports that Russia has proposed a ceasefire that would not begin until March 1, in what opponents see as a bid to buy time for a Syrian government offensive in and around Aleppo. Government forces, backed by Russian bombers and Iranian fighters, have advanced on the embattled rebel-held city in fighting that the United Nation says has displaced 51,000 civilians. Washington wants a ceasefire and humanitarian access to besieged rebel cities but has threatened an unspecified "Plan B" if talks fail, as tension mounts with Moscow over its air campaign. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow has made a "quite specific" ceasefire proposal but provided no other details as he sat down in Munich for talks with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. "We will wait for the American response before we take it to the (International Syria Support Group)," he said, referring to the 17-nation contact group meeting in Munich on Syria.

Residents in Syria's Aleppo Fear Blockade as Regime Advances
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/February 11/16/Shop shelves are bare and prices have doubled in Syria's Aleppo as the threat of a blockade looms after advancing regime forces cut off the second city's main supply route last week. "What will happen when food runs out? We'll die of hunger," said Abu Mohammed, who has seven children. "Everybody here fears a blockade. We can feel it unavoidably coming," said the 42-year-old salesman from the southeastern Fardoss neighborhood. Some 300,000 people are at risk of being placed under siege in Aleppo, a city that has been divided since 2012, with government forces controlling the west and rebels the east. Government troops cut off the eastern part's main lifeline to the Turkish border in a onslaught backed by Russian air strikes they launched this month against rebels in northern Aleppo province. "I've saved some flour, rice, sugar and oil but it won't last my family more than three months," said Abu Omar, a father of four. "Many shops have closed and prices have doubled," said the resident of the eastern Kallasa neighborhood.
No more heating
"One liter of fuel has shot up from 180 to 300 Syrian pounds," or to 75 U.S. cents, he said. "We're not using it for heating anymore -- even in this freezing cold."Some 51,000 Syrians have been displaced in the latest regime offensive, the U.N. says. But Abu Omar, who has been unemployed for more than a year, cannot afford to escape with his family to Turkey as thousands have done before him. Those who want to cross the closed border have to pay smugglers "$200 per person," he said. Nearly five years of civil war have devastated Syria's former economic powerhouse, which was also famous for its cuisine. Residents are only exceptionally allowed from one side of the city to the other through army checkpoints. Only one route remains out of the city's rebel-held areas to the Turkish border, via the opposition stronghold of Idlib to the west, but it is much longer and more dangerous. Mohammed Jokhdar, a 27-year-old activist from the Zabadiya neighborhood, said fuel necessary to run electricity generators, bakeries and cars is no longer reaching the city. Electricity supply has dropped to just six hours a day from 14, he said.
'Nothing to sell'
In eastern Shaar neighborhood, which has been ravaged by the regime's barrel bombs, shop owner Abu Ali, 50, said he no longer has anything to sell. Everything used to come from Turkey, he said, but that stopped when government troops cut off the road from the Bab al-Salama border gate. "And people have stopped buying. Everything I've sold in the last two weeks barely covers the cost of running the shop's generator."But Abu Mohammed said some shopkeepers are taking advantage of the situation to make money. "Some people hide their merchandise to then sell it a few days later at twice the price," he said. The price for a kilo of bananas has increased from 150 to 300 pounds and a packet of bread from 100 to 250 pounds, he said. Rebel fighter Omar Karnieh said his battalion would continue fighting pro-regime troops because "a siege on the city would be a disaster."U.N. human rights chief Zeid Ra'ad Al Hussein on Thursday voiced "utmost alarm" at the rapidly worsening human rights situation in and around Aleppo and elsewhere in Syria. U.N. figures released in January put the number of people under siege in Syria at around half a million, with more than half of those in areas encircled by regime forces. But a report from the Washington-based Syria Institute and the Dutch PAX non-governmental organizations last week said double that -- more than a million Syrians -- are living under sieges, mostly enforced by the regime. Syria's conflict has claimed 260,000 lives and displaced half the population since March 2011.

Israeli Soldier Jailed for Abusing Palestinian Inmates
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/February 11/16/A military court in Israel has sentenced a soldier to seven months in prison for abusing captured Palestinians, following the outbreak last October of anti-Israeli attacks, the military said Thursday. A statement in response to an AFP query said the man was found guilty Wednesday "on multiple accounts of mistreating apprehended individuals." "The Israel Defense Forces (army) see in these extreme incidents a total violation and disregard of the IDF's Code of Conduct and strongly condemns these actions," it said. The statement did not disclose the offenses but news website Ynet said the soldier "on two occasions beat and abused detained Palestinians and also took part in giving electric shock to one of them."The army statement said the court had yet to rule on "other suspects involved in these extreme incidents."Ynet said the first incident -- involving a Palestinian arrested on suspicion of militant activity -- took place in October when a wave of Palestinian attacks erupted. The second took place about a week later, with a different prisoner, it said. The violence has since claimed the lives of 26 Israelis, as well as an American, a Sudanese and an Eritrean, according to an AFP count. And 166 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since October 1, most of whom were carrying out attacks while others died during clashes and demonstrations.

Israel Charges Arab Schoolgirls for Stabbing Security Guard
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/February 11/16/Israel on Thursday charged two Arab Israeli schoolgirls with the attempted murder of a security guard last week, saying they expected to die in the attempt and become martyrs for Islam. A police statement quoted the charge sheet as saying that the two girls were both aged 14, from the mixed Arab-Jewish town of Ramle, and had been influenced by a wave of Palestinian attacks since October. "On February 3, 2016, after a stabbing attack in which three terrorists were shot dead at Jerusalem's Damascus Gate and because of the wave of terror, the accused agreed to meet the next day, equipped with kitchen knives, to carry out a nationalist stabbing attack," it said. "They conspired to become 'martyrs' and die in the war for religion." On February 4, "one of the accused suggested to the other that they go to school first and carry out the stabbing attack in the afternoon," it added. "Nevertheless the other accused persuaded her that they should mount the attack in the morning instead of going to school." It said the girls took knives from their home kitchens and hid them in their school bags, then set out for Ramle's shopping mall with the intention of killing an Israeli soldier. According to the statement, when they could see only civilians they decided to target a private security guard at the mall entrance. The two then pulled knives and stabbed the guard in an arm and his legs, lightly wounding him before they were overpowered by a second guard and a soldier. They were charged in juvenile court on Thursday with attempted murder, conspiracy and possession of knives, the police statement said. The attack underlined the unpredictable nature of the wave of stabbing attacks that have targeted Israelis since October. Many of the attackers have been young people, including teenagers, believed to be acting on their own. More than four months of violence has claimed the lives of 26 Israelis, as well as an American and an Eritrean, according to an AFP count. Among them was a 19-year-old Israeli policewoman killed in the February 3 Damascus Gate shooting and stabbing attack that authorities say influenced the schoolgirls. In addition, 166 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, most while carrying out attacks but others during clashes and demonstrations. A number of Arab Israelis have carried out attacks. Arab Israelis hold Israeli citizenship, though they largely see themselves as Palestinians.

Israel Court Weighs Sanity of Man who Burned Palestinian Alive
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/February 11/16/An Israeli court on Thursday weighed the sanity of a Jewish man found to be the ringleader of the beating and burning alive of a Palestinian teenager in 2014. Israeli settler Yosef Haim Ben-David, 31, was found to have led the assault, but his lawyers submitted last-minute documents saying he suffered from mental illness and was not responsible for his actions. Two doctors were to testify on Thursday at the district court in Jerusalem, with a decision not expected until a later date. On February 4, a court sentenced his two young Israeli accomplices to life and 21 years in prison for the killing, which was part of a spiral of violence in the runup to the 2014 Gaza war. The two were minors at the time of the chilling attack in which they snatched Mohammed Abu Khdeir, 16, from an east Jerusalem street and then killed him. His murder was seen as revenge for the killing of Israeli teenagers Naftali Frenkel, Gilad Shaer and Eyal Yifrach, who were abducted from a hitchhiking stop near the flashpoint West Bank city of Hebron. Israeli authorities said the suspects had decided to kill an Arab and equipped themselves with cables, petrol and other materials before randomly choosing Abu Khdeir. Ben-David's case comes with tensions once again high, with a wave of Palestinian knife, gun and car-ramming attacks having erupted in October. The violence has claimed the lives of 26 Israelis, as well as an American and an Eritrean. In addition, 166 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, most while carrying out attacks but others during clashes and demonstrations. The last-minute legal maneuvers on behalf of Ben-David were harshly condemned by Abu Khdeir's family, who have expressed doubt they will get justice.

Are the Saudis ready to fight in Syria?
Madawi Al-Rasheed/Al-Monitor/February 11/16
On Feb. 4, Saudi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Ahmed Asiri announced that Saudi Arabia is now ready to send ground troops to Syria to fight the Islamic State (IS). Saudi Arabia is part of the international anti-IS coalition led by the United States since September 2014. However, when it launched the war in Yemen to fight the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels almost a year ago, its priorities shifted and its airstrikes on IS subsided. In December, it launched a new Muslim anti-IS coalition, but this, too, remains ambiguous as a strategy and may be interpreted as yet another attempt by the Saudi regime to seek Islamic backing against its rival and archenemy, namely Iran. It is important to understand why the Saudis announced they are now willing to venture into the troubled waters of Syria with ground troops, allegedly to fight IS.
The 2014 Saudi airstrikes on IS were viewed by many as a symbolic gesture to convince the international community of its commitment to fight terrorism. Saudi support for various radical rebel groups in Syria, together with the ideology of IS that resembles radical Saudi religious interpretations, had prompted some observers to doubt Saudi commitment to fight terrorism. Hence the announcement to launch airstrikes on IS came at a time when the Saudi regime became increasingly suspicious in the eyes of some international commentators. The occasional airstrikes took place when King Abdullah was still king, but by the time he died in January 2015, they became extremely rare and hardly publicized in the domestic and international press.
The war on IS remained a sidelined priority for the Saudi regime as long as it was engaged in a more important southern war in Yemen. The rise of King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud to power in January 2015 inaugurated a new era of direct military intervention in Yemen, which became the primary focus for his son, Mohammed bin Salman, the newly appointed young minister of defense and deputy crown prince.
It is doubtful that serious Saudi ground troops will be deployed in Syria despite the announced and heavily publicized promise. It must be mentioned that the regime struggled to assemble an Arab coalition willing to send ground troops to Yemen and seemed unwilling to go to war in Yemen alone. The regime counted on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, and only a handful of willing countries outside the GCC promised support. Saudis seem to have failed to convince major Arab countries such as Egypt to actively participate in any ground offensive in Yemen. Similarly, Pakistan was reluctant to join the Saudi war efforts for its own domestic reasons. So Saudi Arabia ended up fighting this war with the help of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and countries in Africa. The main strategy of this war remains airstrikes rather than ground offensives, perhaps because of the fear of serious casualties among Saudi troops should they be heavily deployed on the ground. Without substantial ground troops, the war in Yemen is still far from achieving its declared objectives, mainly the return of the exiled Yemeni government to Sanaa and the end of the Iranian-backed Houthi rebellion. Instead, the war has led to serious Yemeni civilian deaths and the near total destruction of the meager Yemeni infrastructure.
The Saudi army has not had extensive experience in fighting on the ground beyond its own borders and may find itself in serious trouble should its leadership decide to venture into Syria. The Saudi army’s much publicized heroic performance during the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 is not to be dwelled on too much given that almost 500,000 foreign, mainly US, troops took part in expelling the Iraqi army from the small Gulf emirate.
One does not need to be a military strategist to know that any Saudi troops on the ground in Syria will find themselves face to face with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s remaining army and under heavy shelling by Russian fighter jets. Moreover, Saudi ground troops in Syria will also be fighting the Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah fighters, who had been supporting the Assad regime, together with other Shiite militia that had been supporting the Syrian regime and fighting IS and similar rebel groups. Needless to say that such military engagements will definitely be bloody beyond imagination given the rise in sectarian tension between Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Shiites in general in the Levant and beyond. The recent Saudi execution of the dissident Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr on Jan. 2 added to this tension that is now difficult to cool down or even contain.
But if the Saudi regime does send ground troops to Syria under some kind of Turkish umbrella as anticipated, from the very beginning their mission will have to be clear. The Saudi regime needs to decide whether its troops are there to fight IS or support various Syrian rebels who are now under tremendous pressure since the Russian airstrikes began in October 2015. The Russian intervention was clear from the very beginning when Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced on Oct. 2 that his strikes target terrorists who are broadly defined as “if it looks like a terrorist, if it acts like a terrorist, if it walks like a terrorist, if it fights like a terrorist — it’s a terrorist.” The Saudis do not have such a vision or definition of terrorism. Thus, it is difficult to anticipate who the Saudi troops will pledge to fight despite the announcement that ground troops will be fighting IS.
The shift in the balance of power between Assad on the one hand and the rebels on the other may have been seriously changed after the Russian intervention, which has prompted the Saudi announcement to send ground troops.
In any case, direct ground military intervention by the Saudis in favor of Syrian rebels or to fight IS may be unlikely given that the war in Yemen is far from being won. More important, the Saudi regime must seriously worry about sending its own troops to a conflict zone such as Syria where global and local fighters have been entrenched in what seems to be an unending sectarian war with no real winner on the horizon. The Saudi regime must also think about the repercussions if its own troops engage IS fighters on the ground. How would Saudi domestic opinion deal with such a possibility, albeit an unlikely one? Sending ground troops to Syria may become fatal for a regime that is yet to decide whether its aggressive regional interventions are actually beneficial or affordable. These are unanswered questions that the new Saudi leadership must think about before starting yet another adventure farther in the north.

Relax: Islam Only Sometimes Allows Muslims to Enslave, Rape, and Rob Infidels, Says Female Muslim Professor
Raymond Ibrahim /PJ Media/February 10, 2016
Straining at gnats while swallowing camels is increasingly how Islam’s apologists rationalize away the violence and hate Sharia engenders for the “infidel,” the non-Muslim.
Consider the true significance of yet another learned Muslim justifying the enslavement and rape of non-Muslim women.
Suad Saleh, a female professor of Islamic doctrine at Al Azhar University, correctly defined the Arabic phrase melk al-yamin—“right hand possession” (Koran 4:3)—by saying non-Muslim “female prisoners of wars are ‘those whom you own.’ In order to humiliate them, they become the property of the [Muslim] army commander, or of a Muslim, and he can have sex with them just like he has sex with his wives.”
Ms. Saleh’s comments are not new. Countless Muslims, beginning with Muhammad himself, have confirmed that Islam permits the sexual enslavement of non-Muslim women seized during the jihad. Saleh cannot even take the “honor” of being the first Muslim woman to support this inherently misogynistic creed.
No, what is of interest here is how the Al Azhar professor swallows a camel by claiming that the Islamic institution of sex slavery is fair and just, but then she strains at gnats by complaining that some Muslims exploit it to the detriment of Islam:
Some [Muslim] opportunists and extremists, who only harm Islam, say: “I will bring a woman from East Asia, as [as a sex slave] under the status of ‘right hand possessions.’ And with the consent of my wife, I will allocate this woman a room in the house, and will have sex with her as a slave girl.” This is nonsense. This is not prescribed by Islam at all. Islam says that a woman is either a wife or a slave girl. Legitimately-owned slaves come from among prisoners of war.
Saleh is correct that some Muslim men twist the “right hand possession” law in ways that allow them to have nonconventional sex. For instance, some years back in Egypt a Muslim scholar formally took a woman to be his “right hand possession,” even though she wasn’t conquered in a jihad and in fact entered the agreement willingly.
Yet what Professor Saleh and many other Muslim apologists fail to understand is that an inherently unjust and uncivilized law—such as one that permits the sexual enslavement of women simply because they are non-Muslims—will by nature always be “abused.”
For example, Saleh and others will insist that the mass rape and sexual abuse of European women by Muslim men in Cologne and elsewhere does not fit the literal definition of “right hand possessions.” But other interrelated Islamic doctrines command Muslim men to hate all non-Muslims and to see women—especially infidel women—as little more than sex objects (or, in the words of a Muslim who recently murdered a Christian girl in Pakistan for refusing him sex, “Christian girls are only meant for one thing: the [sexual] pleasure of Muslim men.”
Moreover, Islamic clerics routinely encourage Muslims to migrate to the West and help empower Islam anyway they can—including through propaganda, proselytization, apologetics, births, theft, etc.—and not just through violent jihad. If they do any of these, they technically become jihadis (after all and as the apologists are fond of insisting, jihad literally means “striving” on behalf of Islam.) Thus many Muslim rapists in Europe believe it is their Islamic right and reward to molest and rape infidel women.
The “exploitation” of Islam’s already unjust and uncivilized laws is common and inevitable. Muslims are not supposed to coerce non-Muslims to convert (Koran 2:256). Yet from the dawn of history up to the present, forced conversions have been a normal aspect of Islam. Why? Because based on the hate that Islam engenders for non-Muslims, “compelling” infidels (especially attractive females) to embrace Islam can—and often is—rationalized as an altruistic act. After all, how bad can it be to force hell-bound infidels into the true religion? Moreover, it helps the growth of Islam and so can also fall into the jihad category. As one human rights report explained while discussing the rampant sexual abuse and forced conversion of Christian girls in Pakistan:
The dark side of the forced conversion to Islam is not restricted only to the religious Muslim groups but also involves the criminal elements who are engaged in rape and abduction and then justify their heinous crimes by forcing the victims to convert to Islam. The Muslim fundamentalists are happy to offer these criminals shelter and use the excuse that they are providing a great service to their sacred cause of increasing the population of Muslims.
Likewise, Islamic law (based on Koran 9:29) calls for the leaders of state to extort money (jizya) from Christians and Jews who live under Islam. Most Muslim countries, thanks to European pressure in the colonial era, abolished this practice and its strictures. However, Muslims around the world know the basics, namely, that the non-Muslim is meant to provide the Muslim with wealth and resources—or, in the words of one caliph to his military commander in Christian Egypt: “milk the camel [the Copts] until it gives no more milk, and until it milks blood.” Nearly 1600 years later, a Muslim cleric and welfare recipient in the UK referred to British taxpayers as “slaves,” and explained:
We take the jizya, which is our haq [Arabic for “right”], anyway. The normal situation by the way is to take money from the kafir [infidel], isn’t it? So this is the normal situation. They give us the money—you work, give us the money, Allahu Akbar. We take the money.
Unsurprisingly, all over the Muslim world, non-Muslims are being kidnapped and held for ransom—and sometimes killed even after the ransom is received—or just robbed and plundered.
In short, the problem isn’t that Muslims aren’t strictly following Islam’s rules concerning the sexual enslavement of infidel women—but rather that Islam allows non-Muslim women to be enslaved in the first place; the problem isn’t that Muslims aren’t strictly following Islam’s rules concerning conversion—but rather that Islam calls for nonstop enmity and war for non-Muslims in the first place; the problem isn’t that Muslims aren’t strictly following Islam’s rules concerning who has the ultimate right to collect jizya from infidels—but rather that Islam allows non-Muslims to be plundered in the first place.
Put differently, it is no solace to learn that Islam permits Muslims to enslave, rape, convert, and plunder non-Muslims in certain circumstances, but not others.

Turkey's Haunted Border with Syria
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/February 11/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7418/turkey-haunted-border-with-syria
Erdogan and his prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, are now paying the price for their miscalculated Islamist aspirations to install a Muslim Brotherhood type of Sunni regime in Syria in place of the non-Sunni Assad regime. Assad, with Russia's help, has become somewhat untouchable, and has never been so safe and secure since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. By contrast, the Turks now face a multitude of threats on both sides of an apocalyptic border.
"With the Middle East ravaged by religious radicalism and sectarianism, the European Union and the United States can't afford the Turkish government's brutal military efforts against the Kurds or its undemocratic war on academics and journalists. Only a secular, democratic Turkey that can provide a regional bulwark against radical groups will bring stability to both the Middle East and Europe. As Mr. Erdogan seeks to eliminate all opposition and create a single-party regime, the European Union and the United States must cease their policy of appeasement and ineffectual disapproval and frankly inform him that this is a dead end." — Behlul Ozkan, assistant professor at Istanbul's Marmara University, writing in the New York Times.
Six years ago, Turkey's official narrative over its leaders' Kodak-moment exchanges of pleasantries with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime in Damascus promised the creation of a Muslim bloc resembling the European Union. Border controls would disappear, trade would flourish, armies would carry out joint exercises, and Turks and Syrians on both sides of the border would live happily ever after. Instead, six years later, blood is flowing on both sides of the 900 kilometer border.
Inside Turkey, clashes between security forces and members of the youth wing of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) have been taking place for weeks. Many towns and neighborhoods have turned into ghost-towns, as strict curfews are now in place. As a result, tens of thousands of Kurds have been forced to flee their homes, seeking refuge in safer parts of the country. While the Turkish army struggles to diffuse the latest Kurdish urban rebellion, hundreds of Kurdish militants and members of Turkey's security forces have lost their lives.
Worse, the conflict has the potential to trigger further violence in Turkey's non-eastern regions, where there is a vast Kurdish population spread across large cities.
Already in Istanbul, violence erupted on February 2, 2016, when unidentified gunmen opened fire on the campus of an Islamic association; they killed one man and wounded three others. In a second incident in a suburb of Istanbul, two people were killed and seven wounded after armed assailants fired on a tea-house.
Across the border in northern Syria, Turkey's "Kurdish problem" is equally pressing. The PKK's Syrian faction, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), has been successfully fighting on the front-lines alongside the Western alliance that is waging war on the Islamic State (IS), and making itself highly regarded by the alliance, thereby further angering Ankara.
Turkey, which views the PYD as a terrorist organization like the PKK, fears that the Syrian Kurds' fight against IS could, in the near future, earn the PYD international legitimacy.
On February 1, Brett McGurk, the U.S. envoy to the coalition against IS, visited a part of Kurdish-controlled northern Syria. On his visit, McGurk posed in front of cameras with a PYD commander -- all smiles -- while receiving an honorary plaque. The ceremony lent further legitimacy to the PYD. McGurk's actions greatly angered Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In a statement directed towards Washington, Erdogan asked: "How will we trust [you]? Am I your partner or are the terrorists in Kobane [the Kurdish town in northern Syria]?"
Ironically, Syrian Kurds are not only backed by the U.S., but also by Russia, which became another Turkish nightmare. On November 24, 2015, two Turkish F-16 jets shot down a Russian Su-24 military jet flying along Turkey's border with Syria. Turkey justified its actions against Russia, citing a violation of Turkish airspace. Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to punish Turkey by means "other than" a slew of severe commercial sanctions.
Immediately after the November 24th incident, in a clear signal to Turkey, Moscow began to reinforce its military deployments in Syria and on the eastern Mediterranean. These included installations of S-400 anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense batteries, lying in wait for the first Turkish plane to fly over Syrian skies, in order to shoot it down in front of the cameras. Russia's scare tactics worked. The Turks halted their airstrikes against IS strongholds in Syria.
On January 29, 2016, another Russian jet, this time a Su-34, violated Turkish airspace and was not shot down. The Turks, already uneasy over tensions with Russia, did not pull the trigger. Most observers agree that the second violation and Turkey's failure to shoot, despite earlier pledges that "all foreign aircraft violating Turkish airspace would be shot down," was a major humiliation on the part of Ankara.
Left: A Russian Su-24 bomber explodes as it is hit by a missile fired from a Turkish F-16 fighter, on Nov. 24, 2015. Right: A Russian Su-34 fighter jet. On Jan. 29, 2016, a Russian Su-34 violated Turkish airspace and was not shot down, despite earlier pledges that "all foreign aircraft violating Turkish airspace would be shot down."
Much to Turkey's discomfort, the Russians are playing a tough game in Syria. Most recently, the Russian military deployed at least four advanced Sukhoi Su-35S Flanker-E aircraft to Syria; the move -- shortly after the January violation of Turkish airspace by the Su-34 -- further augmented its air superiority and boldly challenging Ankara.
"Starting from last week, super-maneuverable Su-35S fighter jets started performing combat missions at Khmeimim airbase," Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov told the TASS news agency on February 1. But a more humiliating move by Moscow was to come: Russian forces in Syria bombed "moderate" anti-Assad Islamist groups, as well as Turkmen (ethnic Turks) in northwestern Syria.
Russian airstrikes have reinforced Assad's forces that now encircle Aleppo, a strategic city in the north. More than 70,000 Syrians, mostly Turkmen, fled from their villages to the Turkish border to seek refuge inside Turkey, and potentially add to the country's refugee problem. Turkey is home to more than 2.5 million Syrians who have fled the civil war. It is estimated that at least one million more would flee to Turkey if Aleppo fell to Assad's forces.
Erdogan and his prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, are now paying the price for their miscalculated Islamist aspirations to install a Muslim Brotherhood type of Sunni regime in Syria in place of the non-Sunni Assad regime. Assad, with Russia's help, has become somewhat untouchable and has never been so safe and secure since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011. By contrast, the Turks now face a multitude of threats on both sides of an apocalyptic border.
As Behlul Ozkan, an assistant professor at Istanbul's Marmara University, warned in a recent article in the New York Times:
"With the Middle East ravaged by religious radicalism and sectarianism, the European Union and the United States can't afford the Turkish government's brutal military efforts against the Kurds or its undemocratic war on academics and journalists. Only a secular, democratic Turkey that can provide a regional bulwark against radical groups will bring stability to both the Middle East and Europe. As Mr. Erdogan seeks to eliminate all opposition and create a single-party regime, the European Union and the United States must cease their policy of appeasement and ineffectual disapproval and frankly inform him that this is a dead end."
**Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Israel's Arabs: A Tale of Betrayal
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/February 11/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7417/israeli-arabs-betrayal
During the past two decades, some of the Israeli Arab community's elected representatives and leaders have worked harder for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip than for their own Israeli constituents.
These parliamentarians ran in elections on the promise of working to improve the living conditions of Israeli Arabs and achieving full equality in all fields. However, they devote precious time and energy on Palestinians who are not citizens of Israel. They vie for the distinction of being the most vitriolic provocateur against their country.
Such provocations make it more difficult for Arab university graduates to find jobs in both the Israeli private and public sectors.
The big losers are the Arab citizens of Israel, who have once again been reminded that their elected representatives care far more about non-Israeli Palestinians than they care about them.
The uproar surrounding a recent meeting held by three Israeli Arab Members of Knesset (parliament) with families of Palestinians who carried out attacks against Israelis is not only about the betrayal of their country, Israel. It is also about the betrayal of their own constituents: the 1.5 million Arab citizens of Israel.
Knesset members Haneen Zoabi, Basel Ghattas and Jamal Zahalka managed to accomplish several things at once with this controversial meeting. They certainly seem to have provoked the ire of many Jewish Israelis. Perhaps they violated the oath they made when they were sworn into parliament: "I pledge to bear allegiance to the State of Israel and faithfully to discharge my mandate in the Knesset."
One thing, however, they have accomplished without question is acting against the interests of Israeli Arabs.
Zoabi, Ghattas and Zahalka met with Palestinian families who are not Israeli citizens and do not vote for the Knesset. As such, none of these families voted for the three Knesset members or the Arab List party to which they belong. Of course, as part of a democratic government, any member of the Knesset is free to meet with any Palestinian from the West Bank, Gaza Strip or Jerusalem.
It is worth noting that not all Arab Knesset members are involved in fiery rhetoric and provocative actions against Israel. However, there is good reason to believe that some Arab Knesset members deliberately engage in actions and rhetoric with the sole purpose of enraging not only the Israeli establishment, but also the Jewish public.
This meeting was the latest in a series of actions by Arab Knesset members that have severely damaged relations between Jews and Arabs inside Israel. Such actions have one clear result: colossal injury to Arab citizens' efforts for full equality.
During the past two decades, some of the Arab community's representatives and leaders have worked harder for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip than for their own Israeli constituents.
These parliamentarians ran in elections on the promise of working to improve the living conditions of Israeli Arab voters and achieving full equality in all fields. However, they devote precious time and energy on Palestinians who are not citizens of Israel. Their spare moments are spent vying for the distinction of being the most vitriolic provocateur against their country.
Instead of acting against the interests of the Palestinians -- by pretending they were sitting in a Palestinian parliament and not the Knesset -- there are alternative scenarios. These Arab Knesset members could be serving as a bridge between Israel and Palestinians living under the jurisdiction of Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.
Decisions such as the one to join a flotilla "aid" ship to the Gaza Strip -- which was more a poke in Israel's eye than any attempt to help Palestinians -- turn the Jewish public against the Israeli Arab public, who are then viewed as a "fifth column" and an "enemy from within."
Such provocations make it more difficult for Arab university graduates to find jobs in both the Israeli private and public sectors. The deeds and rhetoric of these Knesset members have ensured a continuing gap between Arabs and Jews inside Israel.
Thanks to some Arab Knesset members, many Jews no longer see a difference between an Arab citizen who is loyal to Israel and a radical Palestinian from the Gaza Strip or West Bank who seeks to destroy Israel.
Of course, Arab Knesset members have the right to criticize the policies and actions of the Israeli government. But such criticism ought to be leveled from the Knesset podium and not from Ramallah, Gaza or on board a ship carrying a load of Israel-haters and activists.
Just to be clear: this is not a call for banning Arab Knesset members from meeting with their Palestinian brethren from the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem. Rather, this is a call for Knesset members to consider carefully their aims and the tone in which they are carried out.
The recent meeting in question began with a moment of silence for specific dead -- that is, the Palestinian attackers who murdered and wounded several people. Jewish Israelis are likely to have particular feelings about this choice of opening.
Israeli Arab Members of Knesset Jamal Zahalka, Haneen Zoabi and Basel Ghattas (at the head of the table, facing the camera) recently met with families of terrorists who attacked and murdered Israelis. The meeting opened with a moment of silence for the dead attackers. (Image source: Palestinian Media Watch)
Things could have been different. Arab Knesset members could have used the meeting to issue a call for an end to the current wave of stabbing, vehicular and shooting attacks, which began in October 2015. They could have demanded that Palestinian leaders, factions and media outlets cease brainwashing young men and women, and cease urging them to murder Jews -- any Jews.
The Palestinian families who met with the three Arab Knesset members have nothing to lose. Nor do the other Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. For them, these Knesset members are probably doing a better job representing them than the Palestinian Authority or Hamas.
The big losers are the Arab citizens of Israel, who have once again been reminded that their elected representatives care far more about non-Israeli Palestinians than they care about them.
Thus far, only a handful of Arab Israeli voices have had the courage to criticize their representatives in the Knesset. Yet it is precisely these citizens who need to punish their failed Knesset members, not the Israeli government or any parliamentary committee or court. The power is certainly in their hands.
If the Israeli Arab majority continues to waffle, allowing its leaders free reign, Arab Knesset members will lead their people only to nothing.
Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist, is based in Jerusalem.
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

The Many Mideast Solutions
Thomas L. Friedman/The New York Times/February 10/16
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/10/opinion/the-many-mideast-solutions.html?smprod=nytcore-ipad&smid=nytcore-ipad-share&_r=1
In December at the Brookings Saban Forum on the Middle East, Atlantic magazine reporter Jeff Goldberg asked the right-wing former Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman this provocative question: “Things are shifting radically not only in non-Jewish America but in Jewish America as it concerns Israel and its reputation. My question is: (A) Do you care? (B) What are you going to do about it? And (C) how important is it to you?”
“To speak frankly, I don’t care,” Lieberman responded, adding that Israel lived in a dangerous neighborhood. Give Lieberman credit for honesty: I don’t really care what American Jews or non-Jews think about Israel.
That conversation came back to me as I listened to the Democratic and Republican debates when they briefly veered into foreign policy, with candidates spouting the usual platitudes about standing with our Israeli and Sunni Arab allies. Here’s a news flash: You can retire those platitudes. Whoever becomes the next president will have to deal with a totally different Middle East.
It will be a Middle East shaped by struggle over a one-state solution, a no-state solution, a non-state solution and a rogue-state solution.
That is, a one-state solution in Israel, a no-state solution in Syria, Yemen and Libya, a non-state solution offered by the Islamic caliphate and a rogue-state solution offered by Iran.
Start with Israel. The peace process is dead. It’s over, folks, so please stop sending the New York Times Op-Ed page editor your proposals for a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians. The next U.S. president will have to deal with an Israel determined to permanently occupy all the territory between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, including where 2.5 million West Bank Palestinians live.
How did we get there? So many people stuck knives into the peace process it’s hard to know who delivered the mortal blow. Was it the fanatical Jewish settlers determined to keep expanding their footprint in the West Bank and able to sabotage any Israeli politician or army officer who opposed them? Was it right-wing Jewish billionaires, like Sheldon Adelson, who used their influence to blunt any U.S. congressional criticism of Bibi Netanyahu?
Or was it Netanyahu, whose lust to hold onto his seat of power is only surpassed by his lack of imagination to find a secure way to separate from the Palestinians? Bibi won: He’s now a historic figure — the founding father of the one-state solution.
And Hamas is the mother. Hamas devoted all its resources to digging tunnels to attack Israelis from Gaza rather than turning Gaza into Singapore, making a laughingstock of Israeli peace advocates. And Hamas launched a rocket close enough to Tel Aviv’s airport that the U.S. banned all American flights for a day, signaling to every Israeli, dove or hawk, what could happen if they ceded the West Bank.
But Hamas was not alone. The Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, sacked the only effective Palestinian prime minister ever, Salam Fayyad, who was dedicated to fighting corruption and proving that Palestinians deserved a state by focusing on building institutions, not U.N. resolutions.
They all killed the two-state solution. Let the one-state era begin. It will involve a steady low-grade civil war between Palestinians and Israelis and a growing Israeli isolation in Europe and on college campuses that the next U.S. president will have to navigate.
Continue reading the main story
Tried reading this, and am reminded why I hate reading Friedman - he always brands his columns with some idiotic soundbite - one state, no...
Here's a solution.Get Out.Leave all those backwards barbarians to kill each other. they all lie and cheat and will switch sides on a whim....
Doron from Dallas has the issue down cold. Despite UNGAR 181, providing for two states, "one Arab and one Jewish," the Palestinians, have...
Meanwhile, a no-state Syria — a Syria that Bashar al-Assad and his Russian and Iranian backers only partly control — will be a chest wound bleeding refugees into Europe. I am certain that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is deliberately bombing anti-regime Syrians to drive them into Europe in hopes of creating a rift in the European Union, strain its resources and make it a weaker rival to Russia and a weaker ally for America.
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And the non-state Sunni caliphate (ISIS) and rogue-state Shiite Iran will feed off each other. I love it when both Democratic and Republican candidates say, “When I am president, I’ll get Sunni Arabs to take the lead in fighting ISIS.” Gosh, I bet Obama never thought of that!
The Sunni Arabs are never going to destroy a non-state ISIS as long as Iran behaves like a Shiite rogue state, not a normal one. It’s true, Iran is a great civilization. It could dominate the region with the dynamism of its business class, universities, science and arts. But Iran’s ayatollahs don’t trust their soft power. They prefer instead to go rogue, to look for dignity in all the wrong places — by using Shiite proxies to dominate four Arab capitals: Beirut, Damascus, Sana and Baghdad.
So my advice to all the candidates is: Keep talking about the fantasy Middle East. I can always use a good bedtime story to fall asleep. But get ready for the real thing. This is not your grandfather’s Israel anymore, it’s not your oil company’s Saudi Arabia anymore, it’s not your NATO’s Turkey anymore, it’s not your cabdriver’s Iran anymore and it’s not your radical chic college professor’s Palestine anymore. It’s a wholly different beast now, slouching toward Bethlehem

Israeli minister: After Abbas, there will be no more Palestinian Authority
Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/February 11/16
Zeev Elkin, Israel's minister of Jerusalem affairs and immigrant absorption, began his political career in late Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s party before deserting Kadima for the Likud in 2008. He is currently a member of the diplomatic-security Cabinet and one of the most incisive thinkers of the Likud and the entire Israeli political system. Elkin is a close associate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and viewed as one of Netanyahu’s most faithful and effective political operators, though tension has recently been detected between the two. Elkin also enjoys good contacts with Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman, the Israeli right's most uncompromising opposition to the current government.
Elkin was born in Ukraine, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from Kharkiv University and then immigrated to Israel in 1990. He earned a master’s degree in Jewish history from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. As a skilled Israeli politician, Elkin is affiliated with the ideological right, but he is also equipped with an open mind. Elkin holds diverse and sometimes surprising views, but unlike many others he does not hesitate to express his opinions. In an interview with Al-Monitor, Elkin prophesized, “It will not be long until the Palestinian Authority is no longer.”
The rest of the interview follows:
Al-Monitor: Minister Elkin, what do you mean by "not that long," and why are you so sure that the Palestinian Authority will disappear?
Elkin: It could happen in a month or in a year. And I am not referring to the option that President Mahmoud Abbas will retire; enough has already been said about that. I think that the Palestinian Authority will simply cease to exist.
Al-Monitor: How did you reach that conclusion?
Elkin: [Palestine Liberation Organization leader] Yasser Arafat had Abbas, but Abbas does not have an Abbas No. 2. He did not groom a successor, and in my opinion no one can fill his shoes. There is no one we can point to as a sure-fire successor or even a leading candidate for the job. What we are looking at is a personal as well as a social-historical process. We are seeing the total destruction of the Arab world’s hierarchical structure. It began with the phenomenon nicknamed the Arab Spring throughout the Middle East; now it is reaching the Palestinians. For the time being, they are turning their energies against us. That is to be expected. But if they didn't have Israel, they would be working against Abbas.
Al-Monitor: If they are acting against us and not Abbas, then why do you think the Palestinian Authority will disappear?
Elkin: Because Abbas is 82 years old. He is not so young and not so healthy, and his popularity is in the dumps. It's clear that he is nearing the end of his political career for one reason or another. He can't put the blame on anyone else for that, because he was the one who started saying he’s reached the end of the road and thought out loud about retiring. After all his threats about retiring, he created a buzz on the subject and now people expect it to take place at some point. The problem is that he will leave a vacuum, which will breed chaos. If he had a clear, obvious successor, it would be a different story altogether. But there is no one.
Al-Monitor: So what will the day-after-Abbas scenario look like, in your opinion?
Elkin: Unfortunately, it will look bad. There are many destructive forces that will circulate on the ground with very harsh ramifications in the short term. Securitywise it will be very challenging, mainly with regard to the Jewish settlers in Judea and Samaria. Unfortunately we are ignoring this possibility, not preparing for it, unwilling to accept the reality and refusing to read the writing on the wall. We aren’t internalizing it; we just keep hoping that what we want to happen will come to pass. But life isn’t always like that.
Al-Monitor: Nevertheless, something has to happen after Abbas is gone. What will the territory look like then?
Elkin: I reckon that there will be a form of anarchy and power struggles between different gangs. Local militias will form. This can go on for a long time, but meanwhile, governability will weaken greatly and the central government will crumble. That will be very dangerous.
Al-Monitor: Do you think there’s a chance that Hamas will seize control over the West Bank, as it did in Gaza?
Elkin: Yes. But that’s one thing that Israel can’t accept. We won’t allow a Hamastan to rise in Judea and Samaria under any circumstances.
Al-Monitor: Is this scenario certain, in your opinion?
Elkin: Nothing is certain in the Middle East, but I feel that the odds are very low that the Palestinian Authority, as we know it today, will survive over time. Its demise can take place in another year; it can also happen later on, but ultimately it will come to pass. This will have many repercussions, and Israel must begin to prepare for them.
Al-Monitor: What turns you into such a pessimist on this specific issue?
Elkin: We tend to believe that what was true in the past will hold true in the future. It is the human inclination to view ongoing situations as eternal, and then at the end we are caught by surprise. I am a "graduate" of the dismantling of the Soviet Union, and I was traumatized by that. At the time, it also seemed to us that the "Soviet Empire" was something stable and perpetual, but then it became clear to us that it was brittle, fragile and fleeting. The condition of the Palestinian Authority is far worse than that of the Soviet Union on the eve of its collapse.
Al-Monitor: Earlier, you talked about security-related challenges. What did you mean by that?
Elkin: Our entire discourse on the subject of terror must change. This structure that we’ve become accustomed to — of the organized security apparatus in the Palestinian Authority, of one law system and one set of weapons — all this can go up in smoke. I compare the situation to a pressure cooker filled with water that reaches the boiling point. We try to deal with the scalding water that boils over by placing a cover over the pot, but that won’t help. Instead, we need to turn down or extinguish the fire. That is a simple law of physics.
Al-Monitor: How can that be done?
Elkin: Regrettably, it can’t be done now. We are looking at a regional phenomenon that is crushing the entire Middle East and is not skipping over us. We cannot turn the clock back and make Abbas 30 years younger, and we cannot invent a successor to our liking. It doesn’t work that way. Almost all the regimes in the Arab world are feeling the frustration and fury of their citizens, mainly the youths. In the Palestinian Authority, parts of this frustration and fury are directed at Israel, and from this point of view we are an asset for Abbas and we are saving him. But as I said before, this won’t go on for long. Ultimately, he will also pay the price.
Al-Monitor: So what should we do now?
Elkin: We should be making preparations. Sadly, we and the Americans are currently working with the idea that it will survive forever, and we are focusing our efforts on resuscitating a dying body. We have to change our tactics and internalize the fact that an era is coming to an end. We have to ask ourselves: How will we live and function on the day after, in the new period? I admit that there’s a chance it won’t happen, but the odds are very high. We need to have a plan, and at the moment we don’t have any at all.

What's next for Syria?
Vitaly Naumkin/Al-Monitor/February 11/16
Recent developments in and around Syria have prompted Russian analysts to focus on three possible scenarios for the war-torn country: gradual national reconciliation through the Geneva dialogue, a military victory by President Bashar al-Assad or a major war involving global powers.
Russia, like most global and regional powers, continues to support a political solution to the Syrian crisis based on the June 2012 Geneva communique and agreements reached in 2015 by the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) in Vienna.
However, the Kremlin does not believe that a successful campaign against the Islamic State (IS) — or any other terrorist group in Syria — or a cease-fire are possible without closing the Syrian-Turkish border. A river of foreign jihadis, arms and merchandise is flowing into Syria, with contraband oil traveling in the opposite direction.
As Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the other day, “Stopping the flow of contraband across the Turkish-Syrian border that the extremists are feeding off is key to making the cease-fire work.” It is clear that this will be the most striking issue at the ISSG meeting Feb. 11 in Munich.
Russia believes none of the parties to the conflict is capable of a military victory. However, recent military successes scored by the Syrian army in the south with Hezbollah’s support and especially in the north have been interpreted by the media as a tipping point in the war. Indeed, the army’s encirclement of Aleppo and cutting off the militants’ northern supply route from Turkey have radically shifted the balance of force in Assad’s favor. Also emblematic was the liberation of the Shiite enclaves of Nubl and al-Zahra that had been besieged by the rebels for three years.
Incidentally, these events have disproved allegations that Russia’s strikes are targeting moderate opposition forces rather than terrorists. In fact, the main force that has been targeted north of Aleppo is the terrorist group Jabhat al-Nusra. However, according to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham have recently begun fighting each other, while Nur ad-Din az-Zinki has left the Aleppo area and the Turkmens are fighting IS units near Aleppo, rather than Assad’s forces. Russia sees no reason why it should not target the positions of Jabhat al-Nusra, which is part of al-Qaeda and is using as a front an alliance with those whose ideological views can be considered moderate.
Jabhat al-Nusra, just like IS, is among the main targets of the Russian air force. At the same time, Moscow confirms that it stands ready to reach an agreement with moderate opposition groups, but still has differences with the Western and regional ISSG partners over who can or cannot be categorized as terrorists.
The Assad government forces could be expected to launch a new offensive shortly on the western supply route to the rebels. Clearly, in addition to purely military objectives, including the establishment of a bridgehead for a massive offensive on IS strongholds in the east, Damascus is maneuvering for a good starting position at the Geneva talks.
The balance of forces in the north of the country has also changed in favor of the Democratic Forces of Syria, an alliance of Kurdish and Arab militia in which the Kurdish People's Protection Units plays the leading role. It may be argued, especially after they captured the northern villages of al-Ziyara and al-Harba, that the Kurds are close to achieving their main strategic goal of establishing an extended control line along the Syrian-Turkish border — which, in Moscow’s opinion, is helping to bring closer the positions of the government forces and the Syrian Kurds.
However, to rule out any relapse of animosity between them, Moscow will need to convince Damascus to accept Kurdish self-determination. Indeed, devising a concept of decentralization for a future Syria that would be acceptable to all is the most important task in any plan for a Syrian resolution.
Military analysts expect that the Kurds may soon launch an offensive in the 60-mile section of the Jarabulus corridor between Turkey and IS, which is like waiving a red flag in front of Ankara. But will Turkey risk an open intervention in Syria in that case? What response would come from Washington, which supports the Kurds militarily (as does Russia)? That consideration might be what recently prompted Moscow to considerably strengthen its air contingent in Latakia by deploying multipurpose Sukhoi-35S fighter planes and upgrading Syrian MiG29s and MiG29CMTs.
Turkey finds it unacceptable to have Kurds lined up along its border with Syria and has repeatedly threatened to intervene militarily if a Kurdish-controlled corridor is established. While rebutting Russia’s accusations that it is preparing a ground intervention, Turkey is at the same time stepping up its anti-Russian rhetoric.
Moscow was baffled by reports over the past few days that Saudi Arabia, followed by Bahrain, are ready to send their ground troops to Syria to “take part in the fight against [IS].” It is anybody’s guess where, how and by what right they might intervene.
This could escalate into a full-blown regional war with the involvement of global powers, given Iran’s position and Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem’ statement that “any ground intervention on Syrian territory without government authorization would amount to an aggression.” According to the nonprofit Conflicts Forum, Russia has agreed with the Syrian government’s new rules of engagement “that will allow these Syrian air force aircraft to attack any threat to Syrian sovereignty — without reference to higher authority.”
It is not by accident, therefore, that shortly before the ISSG meeting in Munich, the king of Bahrain — who maintains friendly relations with Moscow — was invited to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi. Among all Gulf Cooperation Council member states, Bahrain is known to be the first one to join Riyadh’s initiatives.
Moscow was equally puzzled by some US politicians’ calls for establishing a security zone and a no-fly zone in Syria, using a Turkish recipe that Washington rejected only recently.
None of the above suggests that Moscow is banking on Damascus’ military victory. It wants to see inter-Syrian negotiations resumed, but not on the terms proposed by the Riyadh group of opposition members who put forth preconditions.
Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, in his opening remarks Feb. 4 at the Yevgeny Primakov Foreign Policy Cooperation Center in Moscow, spoke about the threat posed by “ungoverned spaces” in the Middle East to the United States and Russia alike. Could this rapidly growing threat force the two countries to put aside their differences and jointly counter potential disintegration of the regional system of nation states, rampant terrorism and violence?

Iran reacts to Saudi's offer of troops in Syria
Ali Hashem/Al-Monitor/February 11/16
To Iran, Saudi Arabia sending troops to Syria is “suicidal,” at least according to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Mohammad Ali Jafari, who made the remark Feb. 6 at the funeral of a senior IRGC officer who was killed in Syria. Several other Iranian officials have also played down Saudi statements about an interest in contributing to the war on the Islamic State (IS) in Syria.
It’s a joke,” said an Iranian military source who asked not to be identified in a phone interview with Al-Monitor. “We couldn't wish [for] more than that. If they can do it, then let them do it — but talking militarily, this is not easy for a country already facing defeat in another war, in Yemen, where after almost one year they have failed in achieving any real victory.”
After meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told reporters Feb. 8, "There is a discussion with regard to a ground force contingent, or a special forces contingent, to operate in Syria [under the] international US-led coalition against [IS]. … The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has expressed its readiness to provide special forces to such operations should they occur.”
“The Saudis might really take part in this war,” suggested the Iranian military source. “Such a decision might come from the rulers of the kingdom without taking into consideration the capabilities of their troops, and here is where the tragedy would occur. They are not well-trained for such terrain. I’m not sure if they sorted out the supply routes they would use — this is assuming that they would only fight [IS] — but it’s obvious they [want to] implement their agenda, after their proxies failed.”
The source explained that after “major gains in Aleppo, northern Syria and Daraa in southern Syria, it’s clear that the Syrian government is strongly in control and all the terrorist groups are on the retreat. The Americans are aware that this is the end to their dreams in Syria — the Saudis too — so they are thinking [out] loud, but this is very dangerous for them.”
Hostility between Iran and Saudi Arabia isn’t something new, though it has been growing drastically since the start of the Syrian revolution in March 2011. Both countries have different points of view on the regime of the defiant Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Saudi Arabia has called on Assad to step down and has financed groups fighting against him. Iran has offered maximum political and military support to Assad, which at first involved Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria, then Iraqi fighters and finally sending Iranian “military experts” who seem to be taking part in direct combat with anti-government groups, resulting in dozens of Iranian casualties.
If Saudi troops killed Iranian forces in Syria, “that would create a whole new situation for the Saudi regime,” said Mohammad Marandi, dean of Tehran University’s faculty of world studies.
“The Saud family would probably not survive for long in such a confrontation. They are destroying their economy, and they simply do not have the capability to launch another war,” Marandi said in an interview with Al-Monitor. "A Saudi intervention in Syria would be illegal according to international law, and that would be a gift to Iran and Iraq to finally punish the Saudi regime.”
On Sept. 30, Russia announced the start of its intervention in Syria “upon the Syrian government’s request.” This came after a year of the US-led coalition’s aerial intervention. Turkey started its airstrikes July 24. Four months later, Turkey downed a Russian Sukhoi Su-24, causing serious tension between the two countries and raising fears of additional implications. Now that Saudi Arabia is considering sending in ground troops, the main questions are where it plans to deploy those forces and whether it plans to have a presence in regions near Iranian troops, as this may add fuel to the fire.
“This would mean a regional war,” the Iranian military source told Al-Monitor. “Mistakes can’t be tolerated, especially with the tension mounting around the region. It’s not about Iranians, but about all troops on the ground fighting with the Syrian army. How would the Syrian army deal with a foreign country on its soil, without its permission, and maybe aiming [guns] at them? That would be an occupation force.” The source, who visits Syria frequently, added, “Can the Saudis control their army? Who can guarantee that some of them might not defect and join [IS]? They have the same ideology and they hold the same beliefs, and many of them are already connected [to IS].”
The source concluded, “The Saudis are simply putting themselves in a very weird position that might have a very dark end. The worst thing is that the implications aren’t only going to affect the region, but world peace.”

Iran defends its support for Syria, Iraq
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/February 11/16
When the website for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei published photos of a meeting with the families of Iranian soldiers who died fighting in Syria and Iraq, the pictures were shared widely online. The most striking pictures were of a young boy in a red shirt hugging Khamenei and another of the same boy holding up over his head a picture of his father who had been martyred in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq. While the pictures were published Feb. 6, according to Khamenei’s website, the meeting took place nearly one year ago.
It is not clear why the meeting was advertised and made public nearly one year after the fact. But in the face of a rising death toll, there appears to be a push by Iranian leaders to justify its presence in Syria and Iraq. The latest issue of The Line of Hezbollah, a publication dedicated to analyzing the speeches and comments of Khamenei, quoted previously unpublished comments by Khamenei “to the families of martyrs” in Syria and Iraq.
Khamenei reportedly said at the meeting, “They went to fight the enemy and if they did not fight, this enemy would be inside the country. … If they were not stopped, we would have to fight them in Kermanshah and Hamedan [provinces in western Iran].” While Iranians who fight in Syria and Iraq are referred to as “defenders of the shrine,” Khamenei said that they are also defending Iran.
Other officials have also previously offered the argument that Iran must fight terrorists in Syria so that it does not have to fight them in Iran. When Russia entered the Syrian civil war in October 2015 to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iranian and Syrian fighters on the ground supported the Russian air campaign. While the joint Russian, Iranian and Syrian campaign has successfully pushed back the Syrian opposition, Iranian casualties have also increased dramatically in comparison to previous years. This may explain why Iranian officials have been praising and highlighting the efforts of the fighters in Syria.
While there was a time when only hard-line publications would report Iranian deaths in Syria, today there is more widespread coverage, especially on social media accounts. Iranian journalists in Syria share pictures and names of those killed in Syria on their Instagram pages, and bloggers share their personal stories.
The funerals of those killed are now public affairs attended by the highest-ranking Iranian officials. The head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohammad Ali Jafari, attended the Feb. 6 funerals of five soldiers killed in Syria. A picture of Jafari kissing one of the coffins was highlighted in a number of news sites that covered the event. At the funeral, Jafari said, “Our policy is not to send many people to Syria to directly fight, but we are witnessing a great deal of eagerness and desire from the IRGC soldiers to be in Syria.”
Yalasarat, the publication of Ansar-e Hezbollah, republished an article by Javan newspaper, which is linked to the IRGC, on Feb. 8 likening the fight in Syria and Iraq to “another Sacred Defense,” a term used for the Iran-Iraq War. The article argued that IS and other Sunni fundamentalist groups referred to as “takfiris” in Iranian media have openly claimed that after destroying the shrines in Iraq, they will come to Iran and destroy the shrine of the eighth Shiite imam, Imam Reza, in Mashhad. The article also quoted the imam of the grand mosque in Mecca, Abdul Rahman al-Sudais, as saying that there is a war on the Shiites and Iran. The article said that these threats must be taken seriously, and “it is completely clear why Iranian forces must help Iraqis and Syrians.”

Establishing a state that suits Assad
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/February 11/16
U.N. special envoy Staffan de Mistura’s recent statement blaming the Syrian regime (I can't find any such statement) for obstructing negotiations was not as strong as it should have been, considering the murder and displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians. His statements will also not ease shock over attempts to keep President Bashar al-Assad in power until his term ends in the spring of 2018. Keeping Assad in power negates the need for negotiations. He should be tried for war crimes, not rewarded by keeping him in power under a U.N. flag. In 2013, the Syrian people were told to wait a year until Assad finished his presidential term, in order to achieve change constitutionally and for him to save face. When the time came, he forged elections to become president again, and resumed his policy of murder and displacement. Now, the plan is to keep him in power until the spring of 2018. Russia and Iran are trying to establish a state whose ethnic components suit the capabilities of Assad, who belongs to a sect that only constitutes 10 percent of the population.
The Syrian opposition was asked to accept maintaining the regime in order to avoid state collapse and not repeat the American mistake in Iraq. The opposition said it was willing to participate in a unity government but without Assad. Then it was told to communicate and negotiate with the Russians to end the crisis. The opposition went to Moscow but heard only threats. One of the participants commented: “What is left in Syria for us to fear?” When Washington announced its plan to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), it set the opposition’s help as a condition for political and military support. The opposition accepted, but Washington did not oppose Russian or Iranian military intervention against moderate rebels. The two alliances’ only concern is how to organize military operations in order to prevent accidents between them. The only thing Syrians gained from military operations against ISIS were Russian attacks on civilian areas, and an increase in Western aid in the form of blankets and food supplies to refugees. This series of false promises will worsen the humanitarian tragedy and facilitate the spread of terrorism.
Roots of conflict
The Syrian crisis stands on its own, and is not part of the Arab-Iranian, Sunni-Shiite or Russian-American struggles. This is not to deny that Syria has become an arena for multiple conflicts, but the roots of the crisis are local. The Assad regime is a product of the Cold War, and was affiliated with the Soviets. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it could neither change nor develop. Its situation became more difficult after the regime’s founder Hafez al-Assad died in 2000. His son Bashar took over, failed to manage the state, and in 2011 confronted a popular uprising. The Arab-Iranian and sectarian struggles are direct repercussions of the regime’s collapse, not the reason for revolting against it. In order to keep Assad in power, Russia and Iran have killed more than 300,000 people, displaced 12 million and destroyed dozens of cities. They are now trying to establish a state whose ethnic components suit the capabilities of Assad, who belongs to a sect that only constitutes 10 percent of the population. What madness is that? How can the region’s governments accept to remain silent over this farce and dangerous tragedy?

The UAE’s Ministry of Happiness
Mohammed Fahad al-Harthi/Al Arabiya/February 11/16
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, vice president and prime minister of the UAE and ruler of Dubai, surprised the World Government Summit held in Dubai this week when he announced major structural changes in the government. One of the most noteworthy was the creation of a Ministry of Happiness. Upon first hearing of it, the idea might seem odd; however, it falls within the context of an existing idea in the UAE. Many might be unaware that in 2014 Dubai officially launched a “Happiness Index Application” for 14 governmental entities. It provides government agencies with a smart tool to “measure happiness” on websites, tablets and iPhones. The experience of the Ministry of Happiness will be an important marker in the development of management and putting humans as the main axis of developmental projects. At the time, the initiative was unusual since such indicators are usually linked to figures dealing with growth rates. The application was thus definitely out of the box.
Measuring happiness on an annual or quarterly basis did not meet the requirements of a rapidly-changing world and expectations indicated that happiness should be monitored daily, Sheikh Mohammed explained. Since then, there has been a central network that monitors the Happiness Index and sends daily reports to decision-makers about the situation in specific geographical and governmental areas. The aim is to provide desired services to boost people’s happiness. The Happiness Index is a change since it focuses on people’s happiness and comfort. It is true that even in countries with high growth rates and healthy economies, citizens may be unhappy. In 2012, the United Nations adopted indicators for measuring people’s happiness. An annual guide was issued, which ranked countries in order according to their rates of happiness. This was carried out in cooperation with global research centers. The indicators depend on education, economy, public management, health, security, positive relationships, freedom and entrepreneurship.
Measuring happiness
The measurement of happiness is essential as happiness is obviously what people desire and strive for. Frustrated people reflect negative views of society; hence, there is a decline in innovation and productivity, which can give room for the growth of extremism and terrorism. A wealthy state does not necessarily mean great happiness; in fact, the opposite may be the case. According to the U.N. Happiness Guide, people in Scandinavian countries are the happiest while other similar countries are way down on the list. In other words, rich people are not necessarily the happiest; there are people who have lower incomes but are happier. Venezuela was first to introduce a Social Happiness Ministry, but its primary focus is on old people and special social programs for them. The new ministry in the UAE is linked to several indicators that measure people’s satisfaction and happiness regardless of their jobs or nationalities. An investment
It is vital for Arab countries to invest in indicators of happiness and link them to the performance evaluation of ministries. They must also promote cultures of happiness built on love, peace and dialogue thus enabling citizens to live in happiness and dignity. The World Government Summit brought together a large number of officials, intellectuals and researchers who spoke the language of the future. They enumerated the challenges that face governments. Not only did they offer solutions but they also talked about creative ideas that will take societies to new and improved levels. A vital decision was made to change the summit from a global event into a global organization that works throughout the year and focuses on future prospects in all sectors. Mohammed Al-Gergawi, minister of Cabinet Affairs and chairman of the World Government Summit’s organizing committee, said that the aim of the event was to answer future questions and work on the necessary knowledge to prepare governments to face challenges in the near and distant future. This requires that governments let go of bureaucracy and encourage innovation, development and competence. The experience of the Ministry of Happiness will be an important marker in the development of management and putting humans as the main axis of developmental projects. If governments succeed in creating happiness for their people, they will guarantee stability and growth and will take governmental work to a whole new and much sought-after level.

Hamas, Israel digging in for another war
Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/February 11/16
Since the end of hostilities between Israel and Hamas in Aug. 2014, there has been a deceptive appearance of calm along the border between Israel and Gaza. It took the collapse of Hamas-dug tunnels to redirect attention back to the fragility and volatility of relations between the militant Islamic movement that rules Gaza, and the Jewish state that blockades it. Most observers would agree that neither side is interested or would benefit from another round of violence. However, there is genuine fear that internal political dynamics, an unforeseen trigger or a mere miscalculation might lead to a new flare-up.
Inflicting daily misery on Gazans is a combination of Israeli punishment for electing Hamas, and an unfounded belief that it will lead to a popular uprising against the current government
The collapse of the tunnels, claiming the lives of at least nine Palestinians, unleashed predictable and provocative rhetoric from both sides. Senior Hamas official Mahmoud al-Zahar said the organization had rebuilt its tunnels “deep into the territory occupied in 1948.”
In contrast to Zahar, who is known for his uncompromising approach toward Israel, Hamas leader Ismail Haniya emphasized the defensive nature of the tunnels in a speech during the funeral of two of the Palestinians. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was explicit in threatening that any attack via Hamas’s cross-border tunnels would lead to worse retaliation than in 2014.
Gaza blockade
Gaza is still reeling from the destruction inflicted on it by Israel during Operation Protective Edge. From the three available crossings into the enclave, goods are only passing through Israel’s Kerem Shalom crossing. Erez, the other Israeli crossing, and Rafah, the passage to Egypt, are restricted to movement of people, but in both cases in a very limited way. This, in addition to air and sea blockades, considerably limit the Hamas government’s ability to provide for its citizens. This has resulted in a growing malaise among ordinary Gazans. In a society in which more than 40 percent of its population is unemployed, there is only a few hours a day of electricity, and drinking water is in short supply, agitation and radicalization are almost inevitable. This situation weakens the hands of those within the Hamas leadership who want to avoid a direct clash with Israel.
Moreover, following the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt, the encirclement of Gaza and the political isolation of Hamas have been exacerbated. In the past, taxing commodities coming from Egypt via the Rafah tunnels was one of the main sources of income for the Gazan government, but this has decreased significantly.
Egypt has been flooding these tunnels, increasing the shortage of basic commodities and depriving Hamas of income. Adding insult to injury, an Israeli minister and close political ally of Netanyahu, Yuval Steinitz, publicly said the flooding of the tunnels was at Israel’s request.
Strategic calculations
Additional pressure to break the deadlock by resuming armed confrontation with Israel is encouraged by Hamas’s military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades. Beyond what might be an instinctive tendency toward the use of military force, it is also a reaction to deteriorating conditions on the ground, and not wanting to be left out when there are attacks on Israelis by Palestinians in the West Bank. Hamas’s military leadership might be tempted to defy its political one, while ignoring the tragic outcome of past experiences of armed clashes with very little political gain. Without at least some improvement in living conditions in Gaza, those who push for armed struggle are gaining the upper hand. On the Israeli side, the government and security establishment have been toying with two contradictory approaches. One approach maintains that as long as Hamas is in power in Gaza, sustaining tight control is imperative for Israeli security. Inflicting daily misery on Gazans is a combination of Israeli punishment for electing Hamas, and an unfounded belief that it will lead to a popular uprising against the current government.
The other approach argues that only by relieving part of the strangulation of Gaza, and allowing economic activity and some normality, will the motivation to support extremism and conflict be reduced sufficiently. In Israel’s divided government - which includes strong, extreme right-wing elements - the security paradigm of exerting pressure on Gaza dominates. More commodities are entering Gaza these days than for a long time, but there is a long list of products that are regarded as having dual military and civilian use, and are prohibited. Commodities classified as dual use do not necessarily have an obvious military application. The list of prohibited items seems arbitrary, and is deeply damaging for the Gazan economy. Tunnels and militancy in Gaza are symptomatic of the situation there, one that is the result of a lack of diplomatic solution, and is aggravated by Israeli and Egyptian policies. One should not belittle the adverse contribution of Hamas and other militant groups in the deterioration of Gaza to its present state. However, policies that only punish the Gazan people strengthen hardliners within the organization, and the more extreme elements outside it.

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