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Bible Quotations For Today
The eye is the lamp of the body. So, if your eye is healthy, your whole body will be full of light
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 06/22-24: "‘The eye is the lamp of the body. So, if your eye is healthy, your whole body will be full of light; but if your eye is unhealthy, your whole body will be full of darkness. If then the light in you is darkness, how great is the darkness! ‘No one can serve two masters; for a slave will either hate the one and love the other, or be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve God and wealth."

During all our distress and persecution we have been encouraged about you through your faith
First Letter to the Thessalonians 03/06-13: "But Timothy has just now come to us from you, and has brought us the good news of your faith and love. He has told us also that you always remember us kindly and long to see us just as we long to see you. For this reason, brothers and sisters, during all our distress and persecution we have been encouraged about you through your faith. For we now live, if you continue to stand firm in the Lord. How can we thank God enough for you in return for all the joy that we feel before our God because of you? Night and day we pray most earnestly that we may see you face to face and restore whatever is lacking in your faith. Now may our God and Father himself and our Lord Jesus direct our way to you. And may the Lord make you increase and abound in love for one another and for all, just as we abound in love for you. And may he so strengthen your hearts in holiness that you may be blameless before our God and Father at the coming of our Lord Jesus with all his saints."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 15/16
The Faith of the Leper Cured Him/Elias Bejjani/February 15/16
Russian-Turkish clash building up over Syria/DEBKAfile Special Report February 14/16
Acting against ISIS before it is too late/Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 14/16
Putin to Kerry: How Many Divisions Have You Got/Middle East Briefing/February 14/16
Is Iran Headed for another Green Revolution/Middle East Briefing/February 14/16
Looking Past Obama for Syrian Outcome/Middle East Briefing/February 14/16
GCC-US Future Ties: What Should the Next Administration Do/Middle East Briefing/February 14/16
Saudi Arabia's al-Janadriyah and years of intellectual debate/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/February 14/16
Iran’s project and Rafiq Hariri’s assassination/Khairallah Khairallah/Al Arabiya/February 14/16
Syria: When is a ceasefire not actually a ceasefire/Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/February 14/16
Kissinger’s touches in the Middle East/Eyad Abu Shakra/Al Arabiya/February 14/16

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on February 15/16
The Faith of the Leper Cured Him
Switzerland to Represent Saudi and Iran Interests
Paris Urges Turkey to 'Immediately' Halt Shelling of Syria Kurds
Court Sentences 4 Emiratis to Death for Joining IS
Saudi FM Says Russia Will 'Fail to Save' Assad
audi Deploys Jets in Turkey for Anti-IS Fight
Republicans Unite to Block Obama on Supreme Court Pick
Saudi Arabia confirms sending jets to Turkey
Putin and Obama to implement Syria agreement
Deploying Saudi troops up to U.S. coalition: FM
20 nations join major military maneuver in Saudi
Aid convoy enters rebel-held area near Syrian capital
U.S. conduct 27 strikes against ISIS
Saudi shoots down Scud missile fired from Yemen
Two Palestinians fire on Israeli soldiers, shot dead: army
Israel pessimistic on Syria ceasefire, eyes sectarian partition
Organization of Islamic Cooperation: Don’t link terror to Islam
Syrian Kurds reject Turkish demands

The Faith of the Leper Cured Him
Elias Bejjani
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/02/13/elias-bejjani-the-faith-of-the-leper-cured-him/
Christ, the Son of God, is always ready and willing to help the sinners who seek forgiveness and repentance. When we are remorseful and ask Him for exoneration, He never gives up on us no matter what we did or said. As a loving Father, He always comes to our rescue when we get ourselves into trouble. He grants us all kinds of graces to safeguard us from falling into the treacherous traps of Satan’s sinful temptations. Jesus the only Son Of God willingly endured all kinds of humiliation, pain, torture and accepted death on the cross for our sake and salvation. Through His crucifixion He absolved us from the original sin that our first parents Adam and Eve committed. He showed us the righteous ways through which we can return with Him on the Day Of Judgment to His Father’s Heavenly kingdom. Jesus made his call to the needy, persecuted, sick and sinners loud and clear: “Come to me, all you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest.” (Matthew 11:28) The outcast leper believed in Jesus’ call and came to Him asking for cleansing. Jesus took his hand, touched him with love, and responded to his request.
The leper knew deep in his heart that Jesus could cure him from his devastating and shameful leprosy if He is willing to do so. Against all odds he took the hard and right decision to seek out at once Jesus’ mercy.
With solid faith, courage and perseverance the leper approached Jesus and begging him, kneeling down to him, and says to him, “If you want to, you can make me clean.” When he had said this, immediately the leprosy departed from him and he was made clean. Jesus extended His hand and touched him with great passion and strictly warned him, “See you say nothing to anybody, but go show yourself to the priest, and offer for your cleansing the things which Moses commanded, for a testimony to them.” But the leper went out, began to proclaim it much, and spread about the matter so that Jesus could no more openly enter into a city, but was outside in desert places: and they came to him from everywhere. (Mark 1/40-45)
We sinners, all of us, ought to learn from the leper’s great example of faith. Like him we need to endeavour for sincere repentance with heartfelt prayer, begging Almighty God for absolution from all our sins. Honest pursuit of salvation and repentance requires a great deal of humility, honesty, love, transparency and perseverance. Like the leper we must trust in God’s mercy and unwaveringly go after it. The faithful leper sensed deep inside his conscience that Jesus could cleanse him, but was not sure if he is worth Jesus’ attention and mercy.
His faith and great trust in God made him break all the laws that prohibited a leper from getting close to or touching anybody. He tossed himself at Jesus’ feet scared and trembling. With great love, confidence, meekness and passion he spoke to Jesus saying “If you will, you can make me clean.” He did not mean if you are in a good mood at present. He meant, rather, if it is not out of line with the purpose of God, and if it is not violating some cosmic program God is working out then you can make me clean.
Lepers in the old days were outcasts forced to live in isolation far away from the public. They were not allowed to continue living in their own communities or families. They were looked upon as dead people and forbidden from even entering the synagogues to worship. They were harshly persecuted, deprived of all their basic rights and dealt with as sinners. But in God’s eyes these sick lepers were His children whom He dearly loves and cares for. “Blessed are you when people reproach you, persecute you, and say all kinds of evil against you falsely, for my sake. Rejoice, and be exceedingly glad, for great is your reward in heaven. For that is how they persecuted the prophets who were before you”. Matthew(5/11-12)
The leper trusted in God’s parenthood and did not have any doubts about Jesus’ divinity and power to cleanse and cure him. Without any hesitation, and with a pure heart, he put himself with full submission into Jesus’ hands and will knowing that God our Father cannot but have mercy on His children. “Blessed are the pure in heart, for they shall see God”. (Matthew5/8)
We need to take the leper as a role model in our lives. His strong and steadfast faith cured him and put him back into society. We are to know God can do whatever He wants and to trust Him. If He is willing, He will. We just have to trust in the goodness and mercy of God and keep on praying and asking, and He surely will respond in His own way even though many times our limited minds can not grasp His help. Praying on regular basis as Jesus instructed us to is an extremely comforting ritual: “Therefore I tell you, all things whatever you pray and ask for, believe that you have received them, and you shall have them. Whenever you stand praying, forgive, if you have anything against anyone; so that your Father, who is in heaven, may also forgive you your transgressions. But if you do not forgive, neither will your Father in heaven forgive your transgressions” (Mark 11/24-26)
The leper’s faith teaches us that God always listens and always responds to our requests when we approach Him with pure hearts, trust, confidence and humbleness. Almighty God is a loving father who loves us all , we His children and all what we have to do to get His attention is to make our requests through praying. “Ask, and it will be given you. Seek, and you will find. Knock, and it will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives. He who seeks finds. To him who knocks it will be opened”. (Matthew 7/8 -9)

Hariri: Our Initiative Led to LF-FPM Reconciliation, We Don't Fear Election of Any Candidate Abiding by Taef
Naharnet/February 14/16/Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri stressed Sunday that his movement “does not fear” the election as president of any candidate who abides by the Taef Accord, noting that his latest proposal to nominate MP Suleiman Franjieh has stirred “the stagnant political waters” and led to a “historic reconciliation between the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement.” “The Lebanese presidency deserves more attention and efforts than the Syrian, Iraqi or Yemeni presidencies. The country's interest lies in ending the siege on the presidency, the government and the parliament, not in taking part in besieging Madaya, Aleppo and the Syrian towns,” said Hariri in a speech marking the 11th anniversary of the assassination of his father, ex-PM Rafik Hariri, addressing Hizbullah. “We had the courage to launch an initiative and to stir the stagnant political waters, not to achieve partisan interests for al-Mustaqbal movement, but rather to achieve Lebanon's interest and end the presidential vacuum,” he told a rally at Beirut's BIEL venue, which was attended by March 14's leaders and thousands of supporters.
Lebanon has been without a president since the term of Michel Suleiman ended on May 25, 2014 and Hizbullah, the FPM and some of their allies have been boycotting the electoral sessions. Hariri launched late in 2015 a proposal to nominate Franjieh for the presidency but his suggestion was rejected by the country's main Christian parties as well as Hizbullah. Hizbullah and some of its allies, as well as March 14's Lebanese Forces, have argued that Aoun is more eligible than Franjieh to become president given the size of his parliamentary bloc and his influence in the Christian community. “We have the courage to announce that we do not fear the election as president of any partner in the country as long as he abides by the Taef Accord, the law and constitution, coexistence, and putting the national interest and Lebanon's safety ahead of any regional scheme,” Hariri declared on Sunday. Explaining why he had decided to launch the proposal of nominating Franjieh, Hariri noted that the presidential vacuum has led to deterioration “at all levels – socially, politically and economically – and it has affected the political system and coexistence.” “After all parties, both allies and rivals, rejected to endorse a consensual candidate other than the top four Maronite leaders, we started our dialogue with (ex-)minister Franjieh. After all other initiatives reached a dead end, I met with (ex-)minister Franjieh in Paris and reached an understanding with him,” he added.
“What's wrong in that and why were you surprised? What is my role in the first place? What is Rafik Hariri's heritage other than preserving the system and civil peace and improving people's lives?” Hariri asked. He pointed out that his step has “reshuffled the cards” and “forced everyone to consider ending the presidential vacuum.”“We are proud of this step – a step that has pushed our allies, the Lebanese Forces, to reach a historic reconciliation with the Free Patriotic Movement after 28 years of rivalry,” he said. “We were the first to call for and welcome this reconciliation and if only it happened long ago, it would've spared Christians and Lebanon a lot of problems,” added Hariri. Addressing Hizbullah, the FPM and their allies, the ex-PM said: “Go to parliament and elect a president, unless your real candidate is vacuum.” “You've been boycotting every session, preventing quorum and insisting to know the result in advance and yet you are holding us responsible. On this occasion, we do not allow anyone to tell us that it is our constitutional right to boycott sessions in order to justify their unconstitutional boycott,” Hariri added. “Yes, loyalty to allies is a nice thing, but what is its use if it is at Lebanon's expense and if its aim is prolonging vacuum? Real loyalty must be to Lebanon,” Hariri went on to say, referring to Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's recent declaration that his party is insisting on Aoun's nomination out of loyalty and “political and ethical commitment.”
Turning to the issue of Nasrallah's recent verbal attacks against Saudi Arabia against the backdrop of a Saudi-Iranian war of words, Hariri said: “We are Arabs par excellence and we will not allow anyone to drag us into discord with Saudi Arabia and our Arab brothers.”“Lebanon will never become an Iranian province, under any circumstances,” he emphasized. As for the strain in relations among the March 14 forces that followed his support for Franjieh's presidential bid, Hariri noted that it was difficult for him and for the Mustaqbal movement to mark the February 14 anniversary “amidst an unstable atmosphere” and “discrepancy in points of view.” “It is an occasion to call on March 14 forces, starting with the Mustaqbal movement, to carry out an internal review,” Hariri suggested, noting that the March 14 General Secretariat can play a role in this regard. The reassessment should address “all aspects of the relationship between the forces of the Independence Uprising, in order to protect this exceptional experience in Lebanon’s history,” he said.

Jumblat Meets Berri, Hails Hariri's 'Excellent, Democratic' Remarks
Naharnet/February 15/16/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat held talks Sunday with Speaker Nabih Berri in Ain al-Tineh, after which he hailed remarks on the presidential issue by al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri. “After a long travail and numerous and lengthy (national) dialogue sessions, we eventually reached an agreement over the president's characteristics and as well as positive results,” said Jumblat after the meeting.“Now, we must elect a president and there are three candidates, so let us go to parliament and let the democratic game take its course, which is a simple issue,” he added. Asked about Hariri's return to Lebanon at dawn Sunday for participation in the annual rally commemorating slain ex-PM Rafik Hariri, Jumblat described the former premier's return to the country as “excellent.”“We heard his remarks at the BIEL rally and they were also excellent. They pave the way for the democratic game which we support and we agree with what he said,” added Jumblat. Jumblat had arrived in Ain al-Tineh only minutes after Hariri finished delivering his speech. In his address, Hariri stressed that his movement “does not fear” the election as president of any candidate who abides by the Taef Accord, noting that his latest proposal to nominate MP Suleiman Franjieh has stirred “the stagnant political waters.”Addressing Hizbullah, the Free Patriotic Movement and their allies, the ex-PM said: “Go to parliament and elect a president, unless your real candidate is vacuum.”Lebanon has been without a president since the term of Michel Suleiman ended on May 25, 2014 and Hizbullah, the FPM and some of their allies have been boycotting the electoral sessions. Hariri launched late in 2015 a proposal to nominate Franjieh for the presidency but his suggestion was rejected by the country's main Christian parties as well as Hizbullah.Hizbullah and some of its allies, as well as March 14's Lebanese Forces, have argued that Aoun is more eligible than Franjieh to become president given the size of his parliamentary bloc and his influence in the Christian community. Jumblat had voiced support for Hariri's proposal to nominate Franjieh when it first emerged but lately he has reiterated his adherence to the nomination of MP Henri Helou, a member of his Democratic Gathering parliamentary bloc.

Hajj Hassan: March 14 Doesn't Want to 'Lebanonize' Solution
Naharnet/February 14/16/A Hizbullah minister on Sunday accused the rival March 14 camp of refusing to “Lebanonize” solutions to the country's political crisis. “This camp is insisting not to Lebanonize the solution whereas we want a Lebanese-Lebanese solution without any bets or changes,” Industry Minister Hussein al-Hajj Hassan said during a memorial service in Iaat. “If you want a solution, come to an inter-Lebanese solution, away from what's happening in the region, because the developments are in our favor and not in your favor,” he added. “The March 14 camp was counting on the war in the region and betting that the resistance (Hizbullah) would lose and they are still betting on a drastic change, the fall of the regime in Syria and changes in the region,” Hajj Hassan charged. Lebanon has been without a president since the term of Michel Suleiman ended on May 25, 2014 due to political disputes and electoral rivalry among the parties. Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri, a senior March 14 leader, launched late in 2015 a proposal to nominate Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh, a Hizbullah ally, for the presidency. Hizbullah, however, rejected the proposal, stressing commitment to the nomination of its main Christian ally, Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun. Hizbullah and some of its allies, as well as March 14's Lebanese Forces, have argued that Aoun is more eligible than Franjieh to become president given the size of his parliamentary bloc and his influence in the Christian community.

Army Bombards Militant Positions in Eastern Mountain Range
Naharnet/February 14/16/The Lebanese army shelled positions of Islamic State militants in the Eastern Mountain Range, the state-run National News Agency said on Sunday. The army targeted the positions of the militants that are close to the outskirts of Ras Baalbek and the northeastern town of Arsal in the Eastern Mountain Range, added NNA. The militants clash with the army occasionally but a major confrontation erupted in August 2014 when the al-Qaida affiliate al-Nusra Front overran Arsal in the wake of the arrest of a senior IS leader. Nineteen soldiers and around 60 militants were killed in the fighting. The jihadists of the two groups also abducted dozens of troops and policemen of which four were eventually executed. Nusra released in December 16 servicemen in a prisoner swap that released a number of inmates from Lebanese jails.

Personal Dispute Erupts in Ain el-Hilweh
A personal dispute erupted at dawn in the Ain el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp in Sidon, the state-run National News Agency reported on Sunday. The dispute took place at the neighborhood of Safwari and escalated into armed clashes but no injures were reported. The Joint Palestinian Security Force was trying to contain the situation, NNA added. Ain el-Hilweh, the largest Palestinian camp in the Lebanon, is home to about 50,000 refugees who live in dire conditions and is known to harbor extremists and fugitives. By long-standing convention, the Lebanese army does not enter the country's 12 refugee camps, leaving security inside to the Palestinians themselves.

Sleiman: Against terrorism, extremism, axes, while solely supporting the State
Sun 14 Feb 2016 /NNA - Former President Michel Sleiman said in a Tweet on Sunday, marking the 11th commemoration of Martyr Rafic Hariri's assassination, that he backs PM Saad Hariri's position in "battling terrorism, extremism, foreign plans for Lebanon and axes," while expressing support for "the election of a President, the Constitution, Baabda Declaration, external relations, and the State...alone!"

Salam back in Beirut
Sun 14 Feb 2016/NNA - Prime Minister, Tammam Salam, returned to Lebanon on Sunday, following his visit to Germany where he attended the Munich Security Conference.

Pharaoun: Hariri's patriotism and wisdom enabled him to overcome difficulties
Sun 14 Feb 2016/NNA - Tourism Minister, Michel Pharaoun, has reiterated on the 11th anniversary of Rafik Hariri's martyrdom the late prime minister's patriotism and wisdom which enabled him to surmount major difficulties."
"As we present warm condolences to former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and family our deepest condolences, we hope to elect a new President capable of reactivating constitution-based institutions," he concluded.

Bassil at Brussels security summit over Syrian crisis
Sun 14 Feb 2016/NNA - Foreign Affairs' minister Gibran Bassil has heeded Federica Mogherini invitation to the EU Ministers' summit in Brussels devoted to discussing outfall from the Syrian crisis. Having attended with Prime Minister Tammam Salam the EU's security summit in Munich/Germany, Bassil reportedly met with a number of Arab and European counterparts with no immediate word as per encounters' outcome.Bassil is due to inaugurate shortly the new premises of the Lebanese embassy in Brussels where Cypriot and Greek counterparts have been invited.

Salam: Hariri's a beacon to a moderate co existential society
Sun 14 Feb 2016/NNA - Hariri's view is a beacon to whoever remains concerned with establishing a society where moderation and peaceful coexistence reins, Prime Minister Tammam Salam, stated on Hariri's 11th anniversary today. Hariri's call for a potent and all-accomodating state march hand in hand with breakthroughs of the epoch, he added. As we mark the sad anniversary I urge all leaders to assume responsibility and thoughtfulness over our pathetic predicament in order to recover Lebanon's bright image as it had once been perceived by Rafic Hariri, Salam concluded.

Rahi: Deputies commit a cardinal sin
Sun 14 Feb 2016/NNA - Deputies of the House commit a cardinal sin by blocking parliament sessions and/or, by assuming a hard-line posturing, Maronite patriarch Beshara Rahi, charged during Sunday's homily at the Lady's Chapel in Bkirki today.
Officiating over Sunday service with the help of bishop Sayyah and a number of priests, patriarch Rahi has recited verses from the Gospels of Marc depicting God's willful assistance of the Faithful with Jesus Christ performing the miracle of curing a leper from his skin sours undaunted by the 40-days long fast; Cure could come about through beseeching Church mercy, Rahi retorted. Thanking the Almighty One for the brotherly reunion affected between Pope Francis and the patriarch of Moscow Cyril in Havana, Rahi aspired for an honoring of the agreement reached by both spiritual leaders to the benefit of clergy and laity alike. Rahi hoped that the Francis-Cyril encounter brings about peace to a worn-torn Middle East. Rebuking deputies for their sinful attitude, Patriarch Rahi went on to say that the gravity of their sin is compounded by neglecting their duty of electing a new president. Marking the 11th anniversary of Hariri's assassination, the patriarch urged politicians to cement national unity under a potent nation state. Patriarch Rahi concluded by urging his flock to uphold high a culture of mercy and atonement.

Fatfat: No regional decision to elect president
Sun 14 Feb 2016/NNA - Future Bloc MP, Ahmad Fatfat, told Voice of Lebanon radio on Sunday that the goals of martyr Rafik Hariri in all stages of his life continue to be the main engine that moves Future Movement, contending that there remains the minimum degree of coexistence in Lebanon. The MP reviewed the systematic destruction of Hariri's developmental and economic vision for Lebanon. This led to a drastic decline in the country's economy due to a political campaign waged against Rafik Hariri in order to obliterate his school of thought and its effect on the Lebanese people. Fatfat noted, however, that the Lebanese began discovering lately how far Hariri's aspirations for Lebanon and all the Lebanese reached. "The Lebanese are discovering how much of a guarantee he was for Lebanon and perhaps its surroundings, to a point that makes one wonder if his assassination was the prelude to all that is going on in the region," he said. Martyr Rafik Hariri focused on many developmental projects. He rebuilt down town Beirut and the airport and invested in hospitals and universities as well as gave many scholarships and grants for Lebanese students. "Sadly, certain political sides are trying not only to deny [Hariri's work], but also to destroy the foundations without which Lebanon cannot exist." Fatfat admitted that the political camp of March 14 made many mistakes. He revealed that the return of Saad Hariri to Lebanon involved patching the cracks within March 14 Camp. Touching on Hezbollah's thorny issue, the MP asserted that the democracy of March 14 Camp did not allow former PM Saad Hariri to play a similar role to the one Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah played within March 8 Camp. "The difference between Hezbollah and other parties in the country is that the former plans a continuous strategy for ideological reasons based on the side supporting it...although we must take into consideration that the entire infrastructure of Lebanon is threatened." Fatfat did not sound optimistic about the resolution of the presidential conundrum, noting that this matter would take a long time. "Obviously there is no regional decision to elect a president, and Hezbollah considers this an important card in its hand."

Russian-Turkish clash building up over Syria
DEBKAfile Special Report February 14, 2016/Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan clearly took a calculated risk when he ordered a two-our cross-border artillery bombardment Saturday, Feb. 13 of Syrian army forces positioned around the northern Syrian town of Azaz and the Kurdish YPG militia units which two days earlier took control of the former Syrian military air base of Minagh some six kilometers from the Turkish border. Kurdish troops backed by the Russian air force seized that base last week from rebel militias as part of the operation for cutting the rebel groups under siege in Aleppo from their supply routes. The Turkish bombardment was therefore an indirect attack on the Russian forces backing pro-Assad forces against the rebels in the Syria war. Erdogan knows that Moscow hasn’t finished settling accounts with Turkey for the shooting down of a Russian Su-24 on Nov. 24 and is spoiling for more punishment. After that incident, the Russians deployed top-of-line S-400 ground-to-air missile batteries and advanced Sukhoi Su-35 warplanes to their base in Latakia near the Turkish border. Ankara therefore limited its strike to a two-hour artillery bombardment from Turkish soil, reasoning that a Turkish warplane anywhere near the Syrian border would be shot down instantly.
Emboldened by the delay in the Russian response, the Turks took another step: Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu threatened the Kurdish YPG militia with more attacks if they failed to withdraw from the Menagh air base. Although the Turkish prime minister had called on “allies and supporters” to back the operation against the Russian-backed Syrian Kurds, Washington took the opposite line by urging Turkey, a fellow member of NATO, to desist from any further attacks. Washington’s concern is obvious. An outright clash between Turkey and Russia would entitle Ankara to invoke the NATO charter and demand allied protection for a member state under attack. The Obama administration would have had to spurn this appeal for three reasons:
1. To avoid getting mixed up in a military clash between two countries, just as the US kept its powder dry in the Russian-Ukraine confrontation after Moscow’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula in February 2014.
2. To avoid upsetting the secret Obama-Putin deal on the allocation of spheres of influence in Syria: the Americans have taken the regions east of the Euphrates River, and the Russians, the west.
The Kurdish YPG militia forces near Aleppo and the city itself come under the Russian area of influence.
3. Regional tensions were tightened another notch Saturday by Russian comments: Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that his country and the West have “slid into a new Cold War period,” and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said a third World War is actually underway -“I call this struggle a third World War by other means.,” he said.
Washington will avoid any action that risks further stoking this high state of international tension, but will act instead to de-escalate the cross-border Turkish-Russian confrontation over Syria.
All eyes are now on Moscow, Much depends on Russia’s response to the artillery bombardment of its Syrian and Kurdish allies. It is up to Putin to decide when and how to strike back – if at all.

Switzerland to Represent Saudi and Iran Interests
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 14/16/Switzerland said Sunday it will represent the interests of Iran and Saudi Arabia in both countries after the rupture of diplomatic relations between the Sunni Muslim and Shiite powers.
The announcement followed a weekend visit to Riyadh by Swiss Foreign Minister Didier Burkhalter, his ministry said in a statement. The Gulf kingdom severed all ties with Iran last month after demonstrators stormed its embassy in Tehran and consulate in Mashhad, Iran's second city, following Riyadh's execution of a prominent Saudi Shiite cleric and activist. The two countries are engaged in a bloody contest for influence across much of the Middle East, including support for opposing sides in the wars of Syria and Yemen. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Friday he believes his country could work with Saudi Arabia on the Syrian conflict and common threats such as the Islamic State group. But the war of words continued on Sunday, with a senior Iranian commander warning Saudi Arabia against sending troops to Syria after Riyadh deployed combat aircraft to Turkey. Iran, Syria's regional ally, supports President Bashar Assad and has sent "military advisers" and volunteers to fight alongside the Syrian army. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said at a Riyadh press conference that the Swiss representation would largely help Iranians go to Saudi Arabia for pilgrimages including the hajj.

Paris Urges Turkey to 'Immediately' Halt Shelling of Syria Kurds
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 14/16/France called Sunday for Turkey to immediately halt the bombing of Kurdish forces in Syria and said it was concerned at the "worsening" situation in northern Syria. Echoing an appeal made by the United States on Saturday, France called for "an immediate halt to the bombing, both that of the regime and its allies throughout the country and that of Turkey in the Kurdish zones."On Sunday, the Turkish army struck positions held by Kurdish fighters inside Syria for a second day, with Turkish state media reporting that it was in response to incoming fire. The army hit Democratic Union Party (PYD) targets around the Syrian town of Azaz using howitzers stationed on the Turkish side of the border, Anatolia news agency reported. The French foreign ministry said it was concerned at the "worsening situation" around the besieged city of Aleppo and elsewhere in northern Syria.

Court Sentences 4 Emiratis to Death for Joining IS
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 14/16/A top court in the United Arab Emirates on Sunday sentenced four Emiratis to death after convicting them of joining the Islamic State jihadist group in Syria, local media reported. The four, who are being tried in absentia, are part of a group of 11 defendants accused of "joining the terrorist Daesh group in an Arab country," the official WAM news agency said, using an Arabic acronym for IS. Local newspapers said that the group had traveled to Syria.
They were also charged with "promoting" IS online, helping to finance the group and insulting UAE leaders, WAM said. Three other Emiratis, a Bahraini, a Mauritanian, and a Syrian were handed jail sentences of between three and 10 years, the local Gulf News daily reported. Another Emirati was acquitted in the case. Abu Dhabi's Federal Supreme Court does not allow international media access to such trials. The UAE is a member of the U.S.-led coalition that has been bombing IS jihadists in Iraq and Syria since September 2014. UAE authorities have enacted tougher anti-terror legislation, including harsher jail terms and even introducing the death penalty for crimes linked to religious hatred and extremist groups. In July, the UAE executed an Emirati woman for the jihadist-inspired 2014 murder of an American school teacher in an Abu Dhabi shopping mall. Her husband is accused of seeking to carry out attacks on targets including Abu Dhabi's Formula 1 circuit and has reportedly claimed to be the local leader of IS. He is currently on trial.

Saudi FM Says Russia Will 'Fail to Save' Assad
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 14/16/Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said Sunday that Russia's efforts to support Syrian President Bashar Assad will not succeed in keeping him in power. Jubeir told a press conference in Riyadh that previous efforts to prop up Assad, including by Iran, had "failed." "Now, (Assad) has sought the help of Russia, which will fail to save him," he said, urging Moscow to "end its air operations against the moderate Syrian opposition."Russia, Assad's closest ally alongside Iran, began conducting airstrikes in September, targeting mainly rebels backed by the West, according to U.S. officials. Analysts believe that Russia's military intervention in Syria has given Assad a new lease of life and has also deeply alarmed the West. But Jubeir, whose country is among the main Syrian opposition backers, said that "it is impossible for a man behind the killing of 300,000 innocent people... to remain" in power. Assad's departure "is a matter of time... sooner or later, this regime will fall, opening the way for building a new Syria without Bashar Assad," said Jubeir. He urged the Syrian regime to "immediately allow the entry of humanitarian assistance to all parts of Syria, end military attacks on innocent civilians... (and) begin a political transition in Syria."A 17-nation Syria Support Group, co-chaired by Russia and the United States, agreed on Friday to seek a "cessation of hostilities" within a week and dramatically ramp up humanitarian access to besieged towns. Critics have said the deal is hobbled by the fact it does not include "terrorist" groups such as the Islamic State group and the al-Qaida affiliate al-Nusra, leaving room for Russia to continue attacks by claiming it is targeting jihadists. The agreement followed a major offensive by Syrian government forces, backed by heavy Russian bombing and Iranian troops, on the rebel stronghold of Aleppo.

Saudi Deploys Jets in Turkey for Anti-IS Fight
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 14/16/Saudi Arabia has deployed warplanes to a Turkish airbase in order to "intensify" its operations against the Islamic State group in Syria, a senior Saudi defense official has said. "The Saudi kingdom now has a presence at Incirlik airbase in Turkey," Brigadier General Ahmed al-Assiri was quoted as saying by Al-Arabiya television late on Saturday. "Saudi warplanes are present with their crews to intensify aerial operations along with missions launched from bases in Saudi Arabia," Assiri said, without providing further details. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Saturday that Saudi jets would be deployed at Incirlik, and that the two countries could participate in ground operations against IS in Syria. Riyadh and Ankara are both opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad, whose foreign minister last week warned that any ground intervention would "amount to aggression that must be resisted". Assiri said the decision to deploy an unspecified number of jets to Turkey followed a meeting in Brussels of U.S.-led anti-IS coalition members, who decided step up their fight against the jihadists in Syria and Iraq. He stressed that Saudi Arabia had made its decision in coordination with the coalition and said that a ground operation was being planned. "There is a consensus among coalition forces on the need for ground operations and the kingdom is committed to that," Assiri said. "Military experts will meet in the coming days to finalize the details, the task force and the role to be played by each country." Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir also told reporters on Sunday that his country was ready to send special forces to Syria to take part in ground operations against IS, without giving further details. Turkey on Saturday hit Kurdish and Syrian regime positions in northern Syria, further complicating efforts to end the war, which has killed more than 260,000 people since it began in 2011.

Republicans Unite to Block Obama on Supreme Court Pick
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/February 14/16/Feuding Republican presidential hopefuls came together as one Saturday after the sudden death of Justice Antonin Scalia, uniting to oppose President Barack Obama nominating a successor on the U.S. Supreme Court. The six challengers for the Republican nomination shared the stage in Greenville, South Carolina for their final debate for the state's presidential primary on February 20, bowing their heads in a moment of silence to honor the court's stalwart conservative who died Saturday at age 79. To a man, they said it was vital that Obama not be allowed to fill Scalia's vacant seat, arguing it was too close to the November 2016 election for him to exert that authority. Replacing the conservative Scalia with a Democratic appointee could significantly alter the balance of the court. Frontrunner Donald Trump noted that Obama would naturally seek to appoint a replacement.
But "it's up to (Senate Majority Leader) Mitch McConnell and everybody else to stop it. It's called delay, delay, delay," he said to loud applause. Obama made a televised statement less than half an hour before Republicans took the stage, vowing to nominate a new justice and calling on the Senate to give his pick a "fair hearing and a timely vote." Senator Marco Rubio, seeking a breakout moment in South Carolina after fizzling in New Hampshire, also said Obama should not move to fill Scalia's seat on the bench, saying lame duck presidents in their final year in office have not had a Supreme Court nominee confirmed for decades. If he did, he would "ram down our throat a liberal justice, like the ones Barack Obama has imposed on us already," Rubio said. "It reminds us how important this election is."Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, reiterated the imperative of confirming a true conservative as the court's next justice. Like Trump he acknowledged Obama's right to put forward his pick."We want a strong executive for sure," Bush said. "But in return for that, there should be a consensus orientation on that nomination, and there's no doubt in my mind that Barack Obama will not have a consensus pick when he submits that person to the Senate."The upper chamber of the U.S. Congress is entrusted to consider and vote on a president's court nominees. The Senate is presently controlled by Republicans, and its leader, McConnell, made it clear earlier Saturday he did not want to see the seat filled "until we have a new president."Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton reacted by saying the Republicans seeking to block any Obama nominee "dishonor our Constitution.""The Senate has a constitutional responsibility here that it cannot abdicate for partisan political reasons."

Saudi Arabia confirms sending jets to Turkey
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Sunday, 14 February 2016/A Saudi defense ministry adviser confirmed late Saturday that the kingdom had sent fighter jets to Turkey’s Incirlik air base for the military campaign against ISIS militants in Syria. Brigadier General Ahmed al-Asiri told Al Arabiya News Channel that Saudi Arabia was committed to stepping up the fight against ISIS and that the move was part of those efforts. In response to a question on whether ground troops were included, Asiri said: "What is present now is aircraft that are part of the Saudi forces," Saudi military spokesman Brigadier General Ahmed al-Asiri during an interview with Al Arabiya News Channel. (File: Al Arabiya TV) He also said that the current presence in the air base was limited to aircraft and no ground troops had been sent. Saudi Arabia has resumed its participation in air strikes against ISIS in recent weeks and U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter on Thursday welcomed its commitment to expand its role. Last week, Asiri said the kingdom was ready to join any ground operation in Syria if required by the U.S.-led coalition."The kingdom is ready to participate in any ground operations that the coalition (against ISIS) may agree to carry out in Syria," he said during an interview with Al Arabiya News Channel. Since late 2014 Saudi Arabia has been part of a U.S.-led coalition which officially has 65 members and has been bombing the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group which seized large parts of Syria and Iraq. On Sunday, Iran’s deputy chief of staff Brigadier General Masoud Jazayeri warned Saudi Arabia in an interview with Iran’s Arabic-language Al-Aalam television against sending troops to Syria after the gulf kingdom deployed combat aircraft to Turkey. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir also said on Sunday that any decision by Riyadh to deploy Special Forces into Syria is linked to the U.S.-led coalition fighting ISIS.

Putin and Obama to implement Syria agreement
Reuters, Moscow Sunday, 14 February 2016/Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Barack Obama agreed to intensify diplomatic and other cooperation to implement an agreement on Syria struck at talks in Munich, the Kremlin said on Sunday. Major powers agreed on Friday to a temporary “cessation of hostilities” in Syria. The pause is due to begin in a week’s time. After phone talks between Putin and Obama on Sunday, the Kremlin said that both gave a “positive valuation” to the meeting on Syria in Munich on Feb. 11-12. “In particular, a support was expressed to efforts of two target groups: for ceasefire and humanitarian aspects,” the Kremlin said. Kremlin added that during the talks, the need to establish close working contacts between Russia’s and U.S. defense ministries was underlined, which would allow them to “successfully fight the ISIS and other terroristic organizations.”The Kremlin also said that Putin spoke with Obama about the importance of creating a united anti-terrorism front. They also discussed the situation in Ukraine, the Kremlin said.

Deploying Saudi troops up to U.S. coalition: FM
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Sunday, 14 February 2016/Any decision by Saudi Arabia to deploy Special Forces into Syria is linked to the U.S.-led coalition fighting ISIS, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said on Sunday. “The Kingdom’s deployment of aircraft to the Incirlik air base in Turkey is part of this campaign. The kingdom’s readiness to provide special forces to any ground operations in Syria is linked to a decision to have a ground component to this coalition against Daesh [ISIS] in Syria - this U.S.-led coalition - so the timing is not up to us,” Jubeir told a news conference with his Swiss counterpart in Riyadh. Jubeir made the statement in the same day Iran’s deputy chief of staff Brigadier General Masoud Jazayeri warned Saudi Arabia in an interview with Iran’s Arabic-language Al-Aalam television against sending troops to Syria after the gulf kingdom deployed combat aircraft to Turkey. Jubeir also said that Russia’s efforts to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will not succeed in keeping him in power. In the press conference in Riyadh, Jubeir said previous efforts to prop up Assad, including by Iran, had “failed.” “Now, (Assad) has sought the help of Russia, which will fail to save him,” he said, urging Moscow to “end its air operations against the moderate Syrian opposition.”Russia, Assad’s closest ally alongside Iran, began conducting airstrikes in September, targeting mainly rebels backed by the West, according to U.S. officials. Analysts believe that Russia’s military intervention in Syria has given Assad a new lease of life and has also deeply alarmed the West. But Jubeir, whose country is among the main Syrian opposition backers, said that “it is impossible for a man behind the killing of 300,000 innocent people... to remain” in power. Assad’s departure “is a matter of time... sooner or later, this regime will fall, opening the way for building a new Syria without Bashar al-Assad,” said Jubeir.He urged the Syrian regime to “immediately allow the entry of humanitarian assistance to all parts of Syria, end military attacks on innocent civilians... (and) begin a political transition in Syria.”A 17-nation Syria Support Group, co-chaired by Russia and the United States, agreed on Friday to seek a “cessation of hostilities” within a week and dramatically ramp up humanitarian access to besieged towns.
Switzerland to manage Saudi affairs in Iran
Jubeir, meanwhile, said Switzerland will manage consular affairs of Riyadh in Iran and will facilitate Iranian pilgrims coming to the kingdom. In early January, Saudi Arabia evacuated its staff after its embassy in Tehran and its consulate in Mashhad were attacked by Iranian protesters following the execution of a Saudi Shiite preacher along with 46 others. The U.N. Security Council strongly condemned the attacks. Jubeir also said that mediation on Iran’s dispute is not required. (With AFP and Reuters)

20 nations join major military maneuver in Saudi
AFP, Abu Dhabi Sunday, 14 February 2016/Armed forces from around 20 countries were gathering in northern Saudi Arabia Sunday for “the most important” military maneuver ever staged in the region, the official news agency SPA reported.The “Thunder of the North” exercise involving ground, air, and naval forces sends a “clear message” that Riyadh and its allies “stand united in confronting all challenges and preserving peace and stability in the region”, SPA said. Saudi Arabia is currently leading a military campaign against Iran-backed militias in its southern neighbor Yemen. Last December, it also formed a new 35-member coalition to fight “terrorism” in Islamic countries. Sunday’s announcement also comes as the kingdom, a member of the U.S.-led coalition targeting the ISIS militant group, said it has deployed warplanes to a Turkish air base in order to “intensify” its operations against ISIS in Syria. SPA did not specify when the military exercise will begin or how long it will last. However, the agency called it the “most important and largest in the region’s history” in terms of the number of nations taking part and the weaponry being used. Twenty countries will be taking take part, SPA said. Among them are Saudi Arabia’s five partners in the Gulf Cooperation Council, as well as Chad, Egypt, Jordan, Malaysia, Morocco, Pakistan, Senegal and Tunisia, it added. A Saudi source said on Thursday that members of the new “anti-terrorism” coalition will gather in Saudi Arabia next month for its first publicly announced meeting. Riyadh has said the alliance would share intelligence, combat violent ideology and deploy troops if necessary.

Aid convoy enters rebel-held area near Syrian capital
AFP, Beirut Sunday, 14 February 2016/A convoy carrying medical aid on Saturday entered the besieged rebel-controlled Douma area, a flashpoint near the Syrian capital, the Red Crescent said. The aid consists of medicines and also milk for children, said Syrian Red Crescent director of operations Hazem Bakla, quoted by state news agency SANA. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) confirmed the aid delivery to Douma in the Eastern Ghouta, a rebel stronghold east of Damascus besieged since 2013. According to U.N. figures, some 486,700 people in Syria currently live in areas besieged by either government or rebel forces. Scores are reported to have died of malnutrition or because of a lack of medical treatment. On Friday, the world body said it hoped to deliver aid to people in besieged Syrian cities “without delay”, after world powers agreed a plan to cease hostilities in the war-wracked country. The United Nations has said that only around a dozen of 116 access requests to reach people in need have been granted by the Syrian authorities. The United States and Russia agreed Friday in Munich on a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria within a week with the aim of relaunching the peace process and halting the exodus of civilians. The two countries and their main allies within the International Syria Support Group also agreed on “immediate” access to humanitarian aid for needy civilians. The United Nations has said that only around a dozen of 116 access requests to reach Syrians in need had been granted in the past.

U.S. conduct 27 strikes against ISIS
Reuters, Washington Sunday, 14 February 2016/The United States and its allies conducted 27 strikes against ISIS militants in Syria and Iraq on Saturday, the Combined Joint Task Force overseeing the operations said in a statement. In Iraq, 25 attacks were carried out near nine cities, six of them near Ramadi, striking ISIS tactical units and destroying ISIS staging areas, fighting positions and assembly areas. Near Mosul, 12 strikes hit two separate tactical units and other targets and destroyed 12 fighting positions and a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device. In Syria, one strike near Al Hawl and another near Al Hasakah struck tactical units and destroyed a tunnel and a building used by the group.

Saudi shoots down Scud missile fired from Yemen
Associated Press, Riyadh Sunday, 14 February 2016/The Saudi-led coalition fighting an Iran-backed militia group in Yemen said Sunday that the kingdom has shot down a Scud missile fired from Yemen. In a statement carried by the official Saudi Press Agency, the coalition said Saudi air defenses intercepted the missile as it headed toward the southwestern city of Khamis Mushait. The statement says the missile was completely destroyed without causing “any losses” on the ground. Khamis Mushait is home to a major Saudi air base and has been targeted by missiles fired from Yemen previously. Separately, the United Arab Emirates said that one of its soldiers was killed and another was wounded while participating in coalition operations in Yemen. The brief statement did not identify the soldiers or specify where the incident occurred. Saudi Arabia leads a coalition conducting air strikes and ground operations in support of Yemen’s internationally recognized government against the Houthis and loyalists of a former president who control the capital and other parts of the country.

Two Palestinians fire on Israeli soldiers, shot dead: army
AFP | Nablus (Palestinian Territories) Sunday, 14 February 2016/Two Palestinian teenagers fired on Israeli soldiers before being shot dead in the northern occupied West Bank on Sunday, Israel’s army said, the latest deaths in a months-long wave of unrest. An army statement said the pair attacked an Israeli patrol west of the city of Jenin with rocks before firing on soldiers with a rifle. “The force responded to the shooting and fired towards the attackers, resulting in their deaths,” it said. The Palestinian health ministry named those killed as Nihad Waked and Fuad Waked, both 15 years old. They were not thought to be closely related. Since the current round of bloodshed erupted at the beginning of October, 169 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces. Most were carrying out attacks but others died during clashes and demonstrations. The violence has claimed the lives of 26 Israelis, as well as an American, a Sudanese and an Eritrean, according to an AFP count.

Israel pessimistic on Syria ceasefire, eyes sectarian partition
Reuters | Jerusalem Sunday, 14 February 2016/Israel voiced doubt on Sunday that an international ceasefire plan for Syria would work, with one senior official suggesting a sectarian partition of the country might be preferable. While formally neutral on the five-year civil war wracking its neighbor, Israel has some sway among the world powers that have mounted armed interventions and which on Friday agreed on a “cessation of hostilities” to begin within a week. The deal, clinched at a Munich security conference, is already beset by recriminations between Russia, which backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad militarily and wants to see his rule restored, and Western powers that have called for change in Damascus involving some opposition groups. “The situation in Syria is very complex, and it is hard to see how the war and mass killing there are stopped,” Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon, in Munich to meet European counterparts and Jordan’s King Abdullah, said in statement. “Syria as we have known it will not be united anew in the foreseeable future, and at some point I reckon that we will see enclaves, whether organized or not, formed by the various sectors that live and are fighting there.”
Ram Ben-Barak, director general of Israel’s Intelligence Ministry, described partition as “the only possible solution”. “I think that ultimately Syria should be turned into regions, under the control of whoever is there - the Alawites where they are, the Sunnis where they are,” Ben-Barak told Israel’s Army Radio, referring to Assad’s minority sect and the majority Muslim denomination, respectively. “I can’t see how a situation can be reached where those same 12 percent Alawites go back to ruling the Sunnis, of whom they killed half a million people there. Listen, that’s crazy.”Helped by Russian firepower, Syrian government forces and their allies have been encircling rebel-held areas of Aleppo. That would give Assad effective control of western Syria, Ben-Barak said, although much of the east is dominated by ISIS insurgents. An Assad victory in Aleppo, Ben-Barak said, “will not solve the problem, because the battles will continue. You have ISIS there and the rebels will not lay down their weapons.”While sharing foreign worries about ISIS advances, Israel worries that the common threat from the insurgents has created a de-facto axis between world powers and its arch-foe Iran, which also has troops helping Assad. “As long as Iran is in Syria, the country will not return to what it was, and it will certainly find it difficult to become stable as a country that is divided into enclaves, because the Sunni forces there will not allow this,” Yaalon said.

Organization of Islamic Cooperation: Don’t link terror to Islam
Saudi Gazette, New York Sunday, 14 February 2016/The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) stressed that violent extremism and terrorism undermine its common goal to live in a peaceful and prosperous world, Saudi Arabia’s Permanent Representative to U.N. Ambassador Abdullah Al-Moallemi said here on Friday. Addressing the General Assembly on behalf of OIC countries, Al-Moallemi said that no country in the world is insulated against violent extremism and terrorism. The U.N. General Assembly was meeting to discuss a draft resolution for supporting the secretary general’s plan to combat violent extremism. The Saudi envoy expressed the OIC support for all efforts to prevent violence, extremism and terrorism. The OIC stressed that any comprehensive and preventive approach to violent extremism should deal with domestic and foreign motives in a balanced manner, rejecting all attempts to link any country, race, religion, culture or nationality with it. There is no agreed-upon definition of violent extremism. “The international efforts must respect principles of the U.N. Charter. Terrorism can not only be combatted by the security or military might, but by all possible means at the political, economic, social and intellectual levels,” Al-Moallemi added. “The OIC stresses the importance of integrating young men and women into efforts and processes of decision-making regarding violent extremism. The youth are the future of society. Failure to protect their rights can contribute to creating a fertile ground for crime and violent extremism to prosper,” he added. Al-Moallemi said that the OIC expresses its grave concern over growing intolerance and discrimination against Muslims which lead to escalation of Islamophobia. “In this regard, the OIC calls upon all member states to curb religious discrimination, hostility or violence. It stresses the importance of dialogue among religions and cultures,” he added.

Syrian Kurds reject Turkish demands
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Sunday, 14 February 2016/The Syrian Kurdish PYD party on Sunday rejected Turkish demands that allied militia withdraw from positions near the border that are being shelled by Turkish army, and warned that Syrians would resist any Turkish intervention in the country. The news comes after close sources to the Turkish government told Al Arabiya News that Turkey’s shelling against YPD forces killed at least 35 and injured 15 others. The sources also said that the Turkish raids targeted 19 positions mainly in the northwestern city of Aleppo in Syria. Saleh Muslim, the co-chair of the PYD, told Reuters Turkey had no right to intervene in Syria’s internal affairs, adding that an air base shelled by the Turkish army on Saturday had been in the hands of the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front until forces allied to the PYD captured it last week.
France calls on Turkey to stop
France called Sunday for Turkey to immediately halt its bombing of Kurdish forces in Syria. Echoing an appeal made by the United States on Saturday, France called for “an immediate halt to the bombing, both that of the regime and its allies throughout the country and that of Turkey in the Kurdish zones.”France’s statement added that the priority should be the fight against ISIS and application of agreements reached by the major powers in Munich on Friday. The shelling on Saturday came just a day after world powers announced announced an ambitious plan to stop fighting in Syria within a week.
Turkey shelling YPG positions
For a second day Sunday, Turkey shelled positions held by the main Kurdish militia in northern Syria, adding complexity to an inflamed situation in the area where Russian-backed Syrian government forces are also on the march, opposition activists said.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights activist group said two fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces - a coalition of Kurdish and Arab fighters - have been killed and seven others wounded in the shelling. There was no immediate confirmation by the group, which is dominated by YPG fighters. The group has seized a number of villages in the northern province of Aleppo near the Turkish border in recent days, and appears poised to move to the border town of Azaz, an opposition stronghold. That has alarmed Turkey, which considers the group to be an affiliate of the Kurdish PKK movement which it considers to be a terrorist organization. Opposition groups said Saturday that Turkish troops fired artillery shells that targeted the Mannagh air base in Aleppo province, which was captured by Kurdish fighters and their allies earlier this week. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said late Saturday that his country’s military fired at Kurdish fighters in northern Syria in response to a provocation along the border. He said Turkish forces retaliated against a Kurdish faction “that presented a threat in Azaz and its environs” in line with the country’s rules of engagement.
He accuses YPG of carrying out “harassing actions” along the border. (With AP, AFP and Reuters)

Acting against ISIS before it is too late
Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 14/16
Riyadh's policy is clear - it believes that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is not representative of Islam and will fight it. When a Western journalist addressed Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir on Friday during a security conference in Munich and said ISIS is based on Islamic teachings, Jubeir said that if we consider the Ku Klux Klan (KKK), whose members commit murders in the name of Christ, to be Christian, then we can consider ISIS to be Islamic. The KKK movement which emerged in the United States 150 years ago, and still has a presence today, has spread to other countries believing in white supremacy, anti-Semitism, racism and anti-Catholicism. This is why they commit acts of terrorism, practice violence and persecute and kill others, particularly minorities. If these KKK practices represent Christianity, then ISIS represents Islam! Saudi Arabia is ready to begin ground operations in Syria as part of the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS There are extremists in all religions and sects, and there are even psychopaths, as Jubeir said. This is why Saudi Arabia is ready to begin ground operations in Syria as part of the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS, the terrorist organization which is distorting our culture. What is the average citizen's stance on that? ISIS kidnaps our sons and daughters and uses them to fuel battles which they have nothing to do with. It therefore deserves to be rejected, and it deserves that we stand against its ideas and practices which are harming us and our culture, religion, state and families. It is our problem, not someone else’s. By believing this is not our problem, we are putting our sons and daughters at risk of being recruited by these terrorists.

Putin to Kerry: How Many Divisions Have You Got?
Middle East Briefing/February 14/16
Eighty years ago, Russia’s dictator Joseph Stalin told France’s Foreign Minister Pierre Laval while talking about the Vatican: “The Pope? How many divisions has he got?”What brings this notorious quote back to mind is that US Secretary of State John Kerry said February 5 that Russian air raids targeting civilians in Syria are harming chances of peace and must be halted. “”Russia is using what are called free-fall bombs – dumb bombs. They are not precision bombs, and there are civilians, including women and children, being killed in large numbers as a consequence. This has to stop,” he said.
During the 24 hours that followed Kerry’s public statement, a total of 248 persons, including over 80 women and children died in Syria. Putin was silently replaying the script written by “Uncle Jo”. But Mr. Putin may find out that the Pope has some divisions, even if they are not exactly his. Other countries may soon field ground forces in Syria under the flag of the international coalition to fight ISIL. Reports from Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Malaysia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and other Muslim-majority nations revealed their readiness to participate in ground operations to liberate Raqqa, the self-claimed capital of ISIL, from the blood thirsty terrorists.
Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said in Nevada February 4 that Saudi Arabia has indicated its willingness to do more with the coalition in the fight against ISIL. Speaking with reporters after addressing airmen at an Air Force installation, Carter said he looks forward to discussing contributions to the accelerated anti-ISIL fight with the Saudis and 25 other nations in Brussels. “The United States has very much indicated our desire to accelerate the campaign to defeat ISIL, and we’ll do that better, and it’ll be easier to sustain the defeat, if other countries that are part of the coalition accelerate their efforts at the same time,” Carter said. Carter statements came shortly after an advisor to the Saudi Defense Minister said that his country is ready to participate in any ground operations in Syria if the coalition decided to start such operations. Bahrain and the UAE confirmed their readiness to participate as well.
Here is how the Arabs present their case: The US leads the international coalition which we are part of. If no one other than Sunni forces should defeat ISIL, we will provide these Sunni forces. It will look expressive that the Russians, who presented their operation in Syria as a war against ISIL but never actually focused on the terrorist group would oppose those whom Moscow accused of aiding ISIL while they are fighting the group. And here is the meaning behind those lines: We will fight ISIL but protect the none-terrorist opposition to Assad and prevent the balance of power from collapsing in favor of the Syrian dictator and his allies. This would make a compromise transition possible. If we do not enter, the Kurds will control almost all the Syrian regions bordering Turkey. No ground forces from us in Syria means that the only ground force available to attack ISIL will be the Kurds, which will cause a bigger problem than the one it solves.
And here is what the Assad government says:
“Any aggressor, Saudi or Turkish or otherwise, attacking Syria will return to where he came from in a wooden box. Any ground forces interring Syria without an agreement with the Syrian government will be considered an aggression and would be resisted by every Syrian as a matter of duty”, Syria’s Foreign Minister Walid Al Mualem said in February 6.
And here is the meaning behind the words: “Guys. Think again. Be afraid. Very afraid”
And here is what the Russians say: “We have serious grounds to suspect Turkey of making intensive preparations for military invasion into the territory of the sovereign state of Syria”, the Spokesman of Russia’s Defense Ministry. And here is the meaning behind these words: Our military intelligence detected some unusual Turkish military steps related to Syria. We want all parties to Know that we know. Academics in Russia, usually pretty close to the official views, offer a little more. “Although Riyadh statements refer to their intention to fight against the Islamic State terrorist organization, there are big doubts about that. It is more likely that the Saudis intend to provide support to those armed formations, which are fighting against the Syrian government forces. The point is that neither Saudi Arabia nor Turkey conceal that they are seeking to remove Bashar Assad from power. This is taking place at a time when Assad’s troops have started to actively change a balance of forces on the border with Turkey with the support of Russia’s air task force. So, Riyadh’s intention is to solve other tasks under the guise of the struggle against the Islamic State,” Vladimir Akhmetov, a senior researcher in the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences told Russia’s news agency Tass February 5. And here is the meaning behind the words: We used ISIL as guise to intervene in Syria. But here are the others who want to copycat us. We will, however, reveal their guise all the while trying to hide ours. It is terrible that using ISIL as a scarecrow is not copyrighted.
And here is what the Turks say: Turkish military intervention in Syria? What military intervention are the Russian talking about? We see nothing”, President Erdogan said.
And here is the meaning behind the words: There are indeed military preparations for an intervention in Syria.
It is a Ping-Pong match. A tragic one.
But where are all these events leading to?
Got to step back and take a look at the big and very bloody picture of Syria at this critical moment.
Syria’s real significance for Moscow does not lie within the borders of this country. If Russia controls Syria, the whole Middle East would be an opened territory for Moscow’ plans and its Iranian allies and their Iraqi proxies. Russia’s role in Syria should never be placed in any naïve counterterror context. It has geostrategic objectives. Putin’s fight for preserving Assad is a fight to turn Russia into an active power able to determine the shape of the region. Therefore, Putin will never give up on Assad so long as he is determined to expand Russia’s sphere of influence in the Near East. Syria is a key country to that region.
If Putin controls Syria, and is powerful in Iraq through the pro-Iran political forces in Baghdad, the whole East Mediterranean stretched east up until Tehran would be a crucial portion of Uncle Putin’s chessboard. The Arab shores of the Gulf would recalibrate their policies pivoting to the East in correspondence with the new regional balance of power.
George W Bush opened the race when he invaded Iraq in 2003. The rest of this sad story is known. However, Putin is now copying the US bold move in 2003 in the opposite directions and after what he says is a careful analysis of the US story in Iraq. Yet, a compulsive gambler rarely analyzes anything.
If Putin can carry his Syrian adventure to its geostrategic objectives successfully, his following target would not only include the rest of the Levant, it will extend to East Europe. Practical steps, like the intervention in Syria, reflect a general strategic view of the world. The Russian view is currently based on an expansive “menu” which started in Crimea as an appetizer. In all his steps he remembers Uncle Jo question, but addressed at the US this time: How many divisions have you got?
Putin’s views are indeed global. He sees America as the “sick man of the World”. He believes that the moment is ripe to bring Mother Russia back to its previous “glory”. He sees that Russia ought to get back its status as a global decider through regaining control of its periphery. East Europe will have its turn.
If Putin is not stopped in Syria, as he was not stopped in Ukraine, he will end up reducing Western influence in the region to almost non-existence. Putin’s favorite game is to turn his adversaries’ move to his favor. His point of start is always his adversaries’ moves. He plans his steps based on this frame of mind.
What would he do in trying to turn the intervention of an Islamic force in Syria’s theatre of military operations through Turkey? This is now the central question of the day. The GCC and Turkey seem determined to go the extra mile to prevent Russia and Iran from swallowing Syria.
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al Jubeir said repeatedly that his country is ready to send troops to Syria if the anti-ISIL international coalition decided to do so upon the failure of the political talks. Moscow believes that the Saudis are bluffing. The Kremlin thinks that it is a pressure tactic to get them to engage seriously in the talks aiming to find a political process.
But President Putin maybe on for a surprise. The Arabs will never accept that Assad continues ruling Syria as if he did not kill over a quarter of a million of his people. They know that if he is to carry on ruling Syria, the Middle East will not have any serious prospects for stability or peace. Assad has made himself the knot where all regional threads entangle to threaten regional security far beyond Syria.

Is Iran Headed for another Green Revolution?
Middle East Briefing/February 14/16
The factional battles inside Iran have intensified greatly, going into the crucial Feb. 26 elections. While most attention is focused on the 290 seats in the Majlis, a more important battle is being waged over the 88 seats that are up for election in the Assembly of Experts, the body that will choose the successor to the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Guardian Council, the body that vets all candidates for both the Majlis and the Assembly of Experts is stacked in favor of hardliners, and the general expectation is that the reform and centrist factions will be effectively reduced to less than a majority, in spite of popular support for the P5+1 deal and the opening to the West. On Feb. 9, the Guardian Council, facing mounting pressure from President Rouhani and other reformist and centrist forces, reinstated 1,400 candidates for the Majlis, who had been initially rejected. The list of final approved candidates will not be made public until Feb. 16, but sources familiar with the internal electoral politics in Iran believe that a combination of candidate disqualifications and district-by-district stacking of the votes will assure a hard-line majority. Between the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and its Basij militia, there are over one million voters, largely guaranteed for the hard-line slates. When family members of the IRGC/Basij are taken into account, the number of eligible voters from that bloc is nearly 3 million.
Three candidates running for the Assembly of Experts define the battle lines there. Former President Ali Akbar Rafsanjani is running again for a post on the Assembly, and could emerge as the head of that powerful body. President Rouhani is also running for the Assembly. Key, however, is the candidacy of Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic and a popular reform figure. The 43 year old Khomeini was initially rejected by the Guardian Council, but a campaign has been waged, led by former President Rafsanjani, to have him reinstated. In a harshly worded speech read as a direct attack on Supreme Leader Khamenei, Rafsanjani invoked Ayatollah Khomeini and dared the Guardians Council to keep the grandson off of the ballot. The Rafsanjani speech was denounced on Feb. 3 by Khamenei, who did not mention Rafsanjani by name, but attacked those who challenged the legitimacy of the Guardian Council as counter-revolutionaries.
President Rouhani also weighed in on behalf of reform candidates for the Majlis and Assembly of Experts, but in a series of closed-door sessions with Khamenei, rather than in public. Rouhani did call for full representation of all factions in the elections, and warned that as many as 10 million Iranians, clearly referring to the most reform-minded segments of the population, including a majority of youth, could be denied the opportunity to elect candidates of their choice.
There is a spillover from the election eve battle into the larger issue of Iran’s changing relations to the outside world. Last year, an Iranian-American businessman, Siamak Namazi, was arrested by the IRGC, while visiting his family in Iran. As the result of his arrest, a large number of Iranian businessmen, now holding foreign citizenship, have held off from traveling to Tehran out of fear of a similar fate. When Secretary of State John Kerry negotiated the release of a group of American prisoners, including a Washington Post reporter of Iranian background, Namazi’s name was notably excluded from the negotiations. Namazi was a strategic planning executive with a private energy company, Crescent Petroleum, which had dealings with the Iranian government during the Ahmadinejad regime. Those contracts are now in dispute, and the company denies that Namazi was still on their payroll at the time of his arrest.
The battle lines have been clearly drawn for the Feb. 26 elections, but it is the aftermath that is more uncertain. By all accounts, the hard-line conservatives are expected to retain a majority, despite almost overwhelming support for the reform and centrist candidates. The Assembly of Experts fight will have more significant consequences down the road, as the Assembly serves for eight year, and it is widely expected that Khamenei will die before that term expires.
Despite the buildup of the Basij militia, the street situation is uncertain. A flagrant theft of the elections by hard-liners could lead to the kind of street protests that shook the country in 2009, in the wake of Ahmadinejad’s rigged re-election. At that time, US President Barack Obama, new in office, gave his unqualified support to Ahmadinejad and Khamenei, missing what many reform-minded Iranians saw as a tremendous opportunity to force major changes in the system. The next weeks will be of great import for Iran, for the region and for the world. If the hardline factions win the vote, with no serious public protests, President Rouhani will make his peace with Khamenei, in order to preserve his chance of seeking his own re-election. And Iran will stay frozen and continue its mischief.

Looking Past Obama for Syrian Outcome
Middle East Briefing/February 14/16
Last week, US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter delivered a speech at the Economic Club of Washington, previewing the Fiscal Year 2017 defense budget. Three items stood out in the Carter presentation. First, the United States has redefined Russia as the greatest strategic threat to the US and its allies. Second, the Pentagon will quadruple spending on the so-called European Assurance Initiative, which translates into the pre-positioning of heavy combat equipment throughout the NATO border states with Russia, including the Baltic States and Eastern Europe. As part of this re-targeting of Russia as a potential strategic threat of the first magnitude, the Department of Defense proposes to spend a total of $1 trillion between now and 2030 on overhauling and modernizing the entire US nuclear weapons triad (air, land and sea-based delivery systems). At the same time, the US is upgrading its arsenal of 500-plus tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Europe. The new B-61-12 weapons will have longer range, greater accuracy and lower throw-weight, meaning that they are more likely to be actually used in combat. Russia has already been undergoing a similar tactical nuclear weapons modernization and pre-positioning.
The third stand-out item in the Carter speech was the proposal to spend an additional $7.3 billion in the next fiscal year on the war against the Islamic State (ISIL).
On both sides of the aisle on Capitol Hill, and at the Pentagon and CIA, strategists are looking beyond the Obama presidency towards a more aggressive posture against Russia. It is a foregone conclusion that, whoever is elected President of the United States in November, the next administration will be more hardline in its dealings with Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Under these circumstances, Syria becomes a chessboard in a much bigger super-power war of attrition, more reminiscent of the Cold War era “Reagan Doctrine” of surrogate warfare against the “Evil Empire,” than anything conceivable at the point that the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact collapsed under the weight of its own bankruptcy.
It should be recalled that the “official” narrative of the fall of the Soviet Union is that the cost of the Afghan War and the competitive arms race around “Star Wars” created such a strain that the Warsaw Pact unraveled, and ultimately the Soviet Union died a peaceful death of “natural” historical causes.
The prevailing view in the US Intelligence Community and the Pentagon is that Russia is bleeding through resources in Syria, at a time that the collapse of oil prices is draining Russian hard currency reserves, which have now fallen to under $300 billion. Russia, according to this assessment, is heading for another “Afghanistan quagmire” in Syria.
The current offensive in the northwest, verging on the retaking of Aleppo, has clearly trumped the Geneva peace talks. So long as the Syrian regime and its Russian and Iranian backers refuse to halt the military offensive, in favor of the UN Security Council-mandated ceasefire and opening of humanitarian corridors, the Syrian rebel forces, of all stripes, will continue fighting, with greater support from key regional allies Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar. The $7.3 billion in projected added Pentagon spending on the Middle East conflict in the new FY17 defense budget indicates that the United States is also expecting an escalation in combat in Syria and Iraq over the coming 12 months. No one at the Pentagon is looking for a quick “peace dividend” in the war against the Islamic State.
President Obama has gone as far as he is prepared to go in drawing the United States directly into the Iraq-Syria conflict. By the spring, there will be over 5,000 US troops in Iraq, there are already teams of US commandoes in Syria, hunting down ISIL leaders, and the US has slightly accelerated bombing raids against Islamic State targets in Syria. Obama will not go any further, but there are no such blocks on the next US administration. US allies Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar are using the “Israeli model” of constant, escalating diplomatic pressure on Washington, to shape the post-Obama military engagement in the region.
Hardliners in Washington are quietly gloating that Russian President Putin has walked into their trap, and is stumbling into another quagmire. They believe that the next administration will be more receptive to their viewpoint than was Obama. They will argue for the US to belatedly adopt the policy that was proposed back in 2011 by then-Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, then-CIA Director David Petraeus, and then-Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey, which was to provide serious weapons to the rebels.
After the opening round of Geneva talks broke down after less than 48 hours, Secretary of State Kerry told President Obama that “the Geneva process” was still alive. Russia, he insisted, is going for short-term military gains to boost President Bashar Assad’s position at the negotiating table. Saudi Arabia and Turkey are going off on their own directions, with Turkey in particular attempting to force the US to choose between supporting a NATO ally, and continuing to back Kurdish militias, who are the most effective US-backed fighting force against ISIL, but are linked by Turkey to the terrorist PKK. Saudi Arabia, according to Kerry’s report-back, refused to cooperate by herding the Syrian rebels into the Geneva process while the fighting on the ground continued. However, none of these developments were surprising, and none represent an absolute defeat of the diplomatic initiative.
Kerry’s assessment was that the next two-to-four weeks will be crucial for whether the talks genuinely collapse or progress is made. The crucial test is whether the Syrian-Russian side agrees to allow the creation of humanitarian corridors, permitting international aid organizations to get to the frontlines, provide urgent food and medical supplies, and allow refugees to safely exit. That means a halt in the carpet bombing. Kerry candidly acknowledged that, unlike the P5+1 talks, he does not have the “lead role” in setting the agenda. He is co-equal with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura. While Kerry remains “buried in the weeds” of the Geneva negotiations, the global game is moving forward, with Russia facing increasing military costs to defend the European flank against the just-threatened US and NATO force buildup, and with the costly Russian-Syrian-Iranian offensive in Syria grinding ahead. The irony is that the accelerating Russian-Syrian military gains may be tightening the trap of a prolonged and overly costly Russian military engagement, hardline Washington factions argue. Saudi Arabia has made clear that they have the deep pockets to cover the costs of a long, drawn-out war of attrition. That was the real significance of the recent statements by Saudi military officials at the London donors conference that the Kingdom is prepared to send troops into Syria, under US coalition command.
The tragedy is that Syria may die as a “collateral damage” of this evolving global geopolitical showdown.

GCC-US Future Ties: What Should the Next Administration Do?
Middle East Briefing/February 14/16
We are going through a period that will define future features of the US-GCC ties. To be able to form an idea about how best, from both sides’ perspectives, could these ties be shaped, we have to gloss quickly over some of the past and present problems before we deal with potential future paths.
So much as the US went through a period of loss of strategic direction after the sudden collapse of the USSR, GCC countries were taken aback by the rapid rapprochement between the US and Iran. The fact that Iran ended its isolation without having to give up any of its policies, regional or global, surprised many, even in the US.
The emergence of a regional power on or the demise of a global one are qualitative shifts with different scales and impacts But either one imposes a violent departure from long established rules regionally or globally. In early phases, this departure encourages testing experimental methods to draw the limits of what is perceived as a new balance of power. Eventually, the relevant parties reach a “modus operandi” that accommodates the new reality.
Normally, the length of this experimental period depends on a set of complex factors. One of those factors is the margin of freedom of movement of the political power in the relevant countries. In cases where this margin is relatively large, due to the form of governance, we may see subjective choices playing a larger role. Another important factor is the degree of fluidness of the environment of the situation.
In the US for example we have seen within a period of less than only two decades an oscillation, particularly clear in the case of Iran, between wars and talks, confrontation and coordination, threats and concessions and a rich variety of contradicting tactics and even changing strategies. In the Gulf, we currently witness a departure from its previous cautious approach to regional crises. True, this did not happen only under the impact of Iran’s ending of its isolation and continuing its aggressive regional policy at the same time, the Arab Spring played a role as well when it created a vacuum in the regional security configuration. Yet, the sense that the US is not ready to continue its previous role in regional security arrangements, if a serious test happens, and the changes in Washington’s motives of engagement, in addition to the increasing Iranian intervention were the main reasons of the shift in the GCC approach to its regional environment.
Examining the change in the US regional posture, and within the region itself, will lead to one major conclusion. It is that the previous nature of the balance of power is changing, hence necessitates a new thinking in introducing parallel changes in the security doctrine in the region. In other words there were two things happening together: First Iran was getting more aggressive (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen). Second, the US has changed its views of how to preserve the balance of power. This was happening in one of the most critical moments in the region’s recent history.
This dynamic became even more complex by the fact that the US was, at least indirectly, a catalyst in making the Iranian more aggressive either by the American invasion of Iraq or by lifting the sanctions on Iran without one single reference to restraining its regional interventionism. Soon, this situation of the US regional absence from major events lead to Iran’s opened intervention in both Iraq and Syria, then to the Russians siding by the Iranians and expanding their own role in the region to fill the vacuum.
Two facts appeared clearly from the new US policy. The first is that the role of the balancer, previously played by the US, would necessarily be redefined. The second is that a more proactive approach in the part of the GCC was called for to preserve regional security, in light of the absence of major security components due to the Arab Spring, US “do-nothing-policy”, and the increasingly aggressive Iranian role.
The balancer role, which was previously defined as containing Iran and bearing a principle portion of regional security, was an established “fact of life” until recent years. This established feature was built on previous experiences and decades of institutionalization. It was “the norm”. Now, things seemed to have changed. One persisting question emerged everywhere in the region: How would the US play a balancer role between two friendly camps engaged in an increasingly intensive conflict with each other?
The “clear” job of containing Iran had its own instruments and created the grounds for close GCC-US ties. Now, it is the fog.
Theoretically, a balancer role does not necessarily mean neutrality. If understood in broader terms, it would mean agreeing on a set of “rules” which define the regional balance of power or rather the rules that organize the game. When the US does not set any rules in agreement with the international community and the regional powers in order to set the contours of the regional balance of power and organize methods to try to modify its nature that will mean that the US is voluntarily resigning its role as a world power and allowing regional countries and other world powers (e.g. Russia) to try to shape the region according to their interests (e.g. Iran in Syria or Iraq).
Verbal assurances and arms sales help little. For it became clear that intrinsically it would be difficult without continuous engagement to be a balance between two sides in a conflict while each is an ally or a potential ally. The Arabs understood quickly that the US security guarantees has become questionable at best. The US did not show any sensibility to the new dynamics caused by many factors including its own actions (e.g. Iraq’s invasion and the nuclear deal). The US was showing over and over again that it is focused on compulsive, short term interpretations not only of the regional situation but also of its own longer term interests.
Policies are not generated in vacuum through the mental labor of a genius or a group of them. It is created to deal with specific existing situations and in consideration of the national interests and objectives of the policy makers. And in the case of the GCC there was a need to devise a policy which is based on the changing US role, Tehran aggressive regional aspirations and the newly founded ties between America and Iran, and the profound impact of the Arab Spring on the regional security structure.
And what we see now is in fact the transitional period, for both sides, when new instruments are tried, new tactics are experimented with new ideas are debated and new modus operandi is shaping up.
No wonder there has been hundreds of worthy papers proposing a host of different approaches to the task of rebuilding GCC-US relations in a way that accommodates the changes in the region and in both the US and in Iran’s role. It is a difficult issue. The balancer role needs to be redefined. The post-Arab Spring epoch, pregnant with images of recent revolts, should be considered. The experimental nature of the moment in both sides should be thought of very carefully as it seems that the margin of error has been narrowed considerably.
But one thing is clear: transparency from both sides, the US and the GCC, in such circumstances is paramount. When it is foggy, one does not know what to expect. It is a time when misunderstandings, disappointments and suspicions are generated on daily bases. This may explain why conspiracy theories are enjoying high demand nowadays in the Middle East.
Some of the views circulating now on this subject call for a demotion of US-GCC ties. Oil is abundant, the US turned to be a major global producer, Iran’s role is active, and then what do we need the Arabs, who are giving the world terrorism, religious fundamentalism, wars and many other troubles, for?
See it from any angle you wish, US-GCC will remain very important part of the national interest of both sides. Because of Middle East terrorism, sectarianism and fundamentalism, the region needs a new role from the US as a force of a fair balancer which base regional conflicts on a set of globally agreed upon basic rules.
Diplomats from the US and the GCC can appear together as much as they want, exchange hands shakes and reiterate the usual lexicon of “unshakable friendship” and “solid partnership”. Yet, any tour in the region will reveal immediately that the loss of credibility of the US, exacerbated by the policies of President Obama, is as at a very high point.
A clear-headed analysis of the reasons of this lack of confidence is the only correct way to regain the lost capital of trust between the two sides: the GCC and the US. A new policy should be based on a degree of flexibility to accommodate for new realities in the region and on a set of clear rules to organize regional ties and collectively manage regional crisis.
And this will be one of the first tasks of the new administration in Washington.

Saudi Arabia's al-Janadriyah and years of intellectual debate
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/February 14/16
Some people expected the Al-Janadriyah cultural and heritage festival – which marks its 30th year this year – to come to an end, particularly following the death of Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz. However, the festival has become so well-entrenched now that it is being held under the auspices of King Salman.
So why is Al-Janadriyah important? It is important because it is part of our modern cultural history. This Saudi multicultural forum gives us a glimpse of the last three decades during which different political and cultural events have unfolded. It is not an exaggeration to say that during these 30 years, the forum has played a significant role in producing different ideas in the conservative Saudi kingdom and thus provided material for discussions and seminars during the forum. Of course, sometimes the festival have not been able to keep up with intellectual debates, which implied that there is controversy surrounding the forum and the society itself. This is normal considering the times during which these controversies have surfaced. Most of the Al-Janadriyah festivals have been distinguished for being an arena for ideological and political discussions held in an atmosphere of openness
Most of the Al-Janadriyah festivals have been distinguished for being an arena for ideological and political discussions held in an atmosphere of openness. They have opened the door for others to voice their views. Over the years, the festival has witnessed several rounds of ideological discussions, attended by intellectuals. These participants often included those who are prohibited from entering the kingdom such as communists and extremist Islamists. These figures have also included westerners, Russians, Iranians or Arabs who are politically opposed to the Saudi state. No topics have been off limits as Sahwa movements, modernity, end of history, relations with others and modern political and doctrinal controversies have often come up for discussion. As a result of this, many figures have come into spotlight during the festivals’ events. Some of these figures were prohibited from entering the country; however, exceptions have been made to host them.
Cultural bridge
Al-Janadriyah has played an important role in shaping the relations of the Saudi elite, and those who are interested in its culture, with other figures. It has facilitated exchange of ideas. They have influenced others and got influenced in the process.
The festival may have given the impression of being a propaganda project in the beginning but has over the years turned into a significant platform for political and cultural activities. Since some people were not used to the dose of bravery the festival offered, they sought to restrain it. However, this bravery has gone on. Some tried to limit the festival to entertainment and folkloric activities but its programs continued to include different ideas.
Al-Janadriyah is more than an annual forum and festival as it has played a significant role in bridging the gap. Now that it has marked its 30th year, it deserves to turn into a permanent institution that holds different events taking into account the changes taking place in the kingdom and the region.
Saudi Arabia needs to become a center of dialog and intellectual development. This is what the Arab Peninsula was known for and this is what has distinguished its history. It is not possible to achieve development without having space for discussion of ideas and holding of dialog with people from across the world.
Al-Janadriyah has created a real opportunity to celebrate the heritage of the kingdom’s citizens. It has become a museum where millions of citizens visit to recall their history, which is otherwise about to be forgotten due to the fast pace of life.

Iran’s project and Rafiq Hariri’s assassination
Khairallah Khairallah/Al Arabiya/February 14/16
Feb. 14 marks the 11th anniversary of the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri. Since his murder, not a year has passed without further exposing that the crime was not isolated from the Iranian expansionist project in the region. This project, which includes Lebanon, has taken a new dimension since the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. American troops toppled the Iraqi regime without considering the repercussions. Then-U.S. President George W Bush handed Iraq to Iran on a silver plate. Jordan’s King Abdullah tried in Aug. 2002 to convince him to consider the consequences of invading Iraq, but in vain. The king was aware of the threat posed by Iranian control of Iraq.
Hezbollah
We are currently witnessing in Lebanon another episode in a series that began with Hezbollah’s refusal to give up its arms after Israel withdrew from the south of the country in May 2000, in compliance with U.N. Security Council resolution 425 of March 1978.
Those who think Hezbollah has given up its Iranian goals do not want to deal with reality. It did not participate in cabinets when Lebanon was under Syrian tutelage, only after Hariri was assassinated. It then solidified the concept of an obstructing vote in government, which has reached the current phase of blocking the election of a president.
Iran wants to manage Lebanese politics and control the country via legitimate institutions
Iran considers Hezbollah’s military intervention in Syria as an essential part of its project in the long run, while another essential part relates to Lebanon in particular. Since the assassination of Hariri, Hezbollah has been aiming to get rid of the Taif Agreement that ended Lebanon’s civil war.
Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah thinks time is on the side of the Iranian project, particularly because Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is still in power despite five years of conflict. Hezbollah thinks the balance of power that led to the Taif Agreement no longer exists. Moreover, many people inside and outside Lebanon think the agreement should have died with Hariri.
Iran wants to manage Lebanese politics and control the country via legitimate institutions, particularly the banking sector. It wants to hijack Lebanon, just as it did the Shiite sect. It wants a new electoral law that weakens the Sunni and Christian communities. The stances of Lebanon’s foreign minister resemble Iran’s. However, there are many legitimate questions about whether Iran is able to pursue its project in Lebanon and thus alter the regional balance of power in its favor. It is too early to answer such questions, but what is certain is that Lebanon is in an unenviable position.

Syria: When is a ceasefire not actually a ceasefire?
Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/February 14/16
If you had not followed the conflict in Syria until this point, you could perhaps be forgiven for briefly thinking that the latest news out of Munich regarding a comprehensive ceasefire could possibly result in stopping the bloodshed. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry admitted that the latest plan - which calls for a total “cessation of hostilities” to begin next week - is “ambitious.” But the plan does not appear merely ambitious, however, but instead totally unrealistic. Yet again, involved parties have apparently failed to prioritize specific issues that can be immediately addressed and instead have focused efforts on the broad – and, at this stage, likely impossible - goal of implementing a ceasefire. Stunningly, initial reports have indicated that the deal – which will not apply to ISIS or Jabhat al-Nusra – may not demand that Russia end its aerial campaign, which has targeted factions outside of Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS and has killed approximately 1,400 civilians. This deal is highly likely to spiral into disaster once Russia confirms, yet again, that it will target all parties opposed to Assad. Kerry himself noted that Russia must shift its focus, stating that, “To date, the vast majority of Russia's attacks have been against legitimate opposition groups.” There is no reason to assess Russia will indeed agree to halt its attacks against opposition factions and instead begin only targeting ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra.
Escalation
Meanwhile, since the ceasefire was announced, the Turkish military has targeted Kurdish-held positions in northern Syria while Saudi Arabian Brigadier General Ahmed al-Assir reportedly confirmed that a number of the country’s air force jets would be deployed to Turkey’s Incirlik base.
With 470,000 killed and hundreds of thousands of people still living under siege, the country cannot be subjected to more useless deals. As Turkey and Saudi seemingly gear up for an escalation, Bashar al-Assad has yet again vowed to continue the war indefinitely. In an interview with Agence France-Presse, Assad claimed his military would continue to attempt to retake the entire country, noting that this may be impossible but that it was nonetheless, “a goal we are seeking to achieve without any hesitation.” This is a point worth reiterating: As various parties attempt to facilitate a ceasefire, little, if anything, seems to have shifted in Assad’s world. His regime continues to tell the international community what his supporters did years ago: “Assad or we burn the country.” Continuing to constantly ignore precisely what Assad says he will do is inexcusable and will only prolong the bloodshed.
The latest reports confirm that the death toll in Syria has now reached nearly half a million people. With 470,000 killed and hundreds of thousands of people still living under siege, the country cannot be subjected to more useless deals. Negotiations must continue but sincere efforts to ultimately end the conflict can only be made once previously agreed upon resolutions are upheld. In the meantime, the international community should expect the likely failure of this ceasefire deal and prepare for the next wave of refugees fleeing Assad.

Kissinger’s touches in the Middle East
Eyad Abu Shakra/Al Arabiya/February 14/16
Henry Kissinger, the doyen of American diplomacy and global strategies, does not like retirement. He believes he has never been out of touch with world affairs and still has a lot to offer in terms of finding solutions and eliminating any threats to the interests he defends. Actually, I believe wise Russians still remember his leading role behind Richard Nixon’s ‘opening up’ policy toward Communist China, which was an integral part of the calculations of the then U.S.-Soviet ‘bi-polar rivalry.’Dr. Kissinger’s strategy was to weaken the Communist threat through widening and exploiting the rift between the two Communist giants, the USSR and China, while skillfully managing the tricky ‘co-existence’ with the Soviets. His success was spectacular as the Chinese giant was brought out of the cold and neutralized, and later Washington managed to turn the Afghan quagmire into the USSR’s Vietnam.
Kissinger’s destructive strategic planning did not stop at isolating the USSR, embroiling it in trouble, and then exhausting and partitioning it, this was equally experienced by the Arab world. Many Arabs recollect the ‘ventures’ of “Dear Henry” – as the late Egyptian President Anwar Sadat used to call him – perhaps the most significant of which was the October 1973 (Yom Kippur) War, which was ‘tactically’ fought by Egypt and Syria after the then leaders of the two countries overthrew Moscow’s friends in two Washington-friendly “corrective movements” in Damascus (autumn of 1970) and Cairo (1971).
Hafez al-Assad’s and Anwar Sadat’s regimes were, in reality, the fruits of ‘Kissingerism’ - not only in terms of regional realignment, but also – and more significantly – in terms of unearthing the anathema of sectarianism in the two counties bordering Israel. The true sectarian nature of the Syrian regime is now clear to all to see, while exploiting religion in Sadat’s political battles (namely against ‘Arabists’ and Leftists) in Egypt was instigated by the “Believer ( i.e. Muslim) President”. Incidentally, as the once ‘secular’ regime in Damascus turned Syria into a base for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and protectorate of Hezbollah, the “Believer President” became the first Arab head of state to shake hands with Menachem Begin and establish full diplomatic relations with Israel. Today, Dr. Kissinger is preaching cordial relations and cooperation between Moscow and Washington against the background of negative rhetoric regarding the Ukraine and Syria. The other day I read a piece written by Dr. Kissinger in which he told the story of his collaboration with the late former Russian statesman, journalist and ‘Orientalist’ Yevgeny Primakov, in creating and co-chairing a group of retired American and Russian politicians and military figures known as Track 2 between 2007 and 2009. The objective of this group was to improve relations and dissipate all tensions, old and new, that may afflict these relations.
The former American Foreign Secretary and National Security Advisor wrote in detail about the efforts of the group and its contacts with the Kremlin and the White House; particularly, with regards to the Ukraine and Syria. As far as the latter is concerned he wrote: “Regarding Syria, it is clear that the local and regional factions cannot find a solution on their own. Compatible U.S. – Russian efforts coordinated with other major powers could create a pattern for peaceful solutions in the Middle East and perhaps elsewhere”. He concluded by saying that such solutions can only come about through “a willingness in both Washington and Moscow, in the White House and the Kremlin, to move beyond the grievances and sense of victimization to confront the larger challenges that face both of our countries in the years ahead.”
Involvement in the Middle East
Indeed, Kissinger’s words about the Middle East in general, and Syria in particular, fully complement the policies of the Barack Obama administration. Moreover, what has been said about Washington being less inclined now to be involved in the Middle East in order to concentrate on the potential threat posed by China seems to be related somehow to Kissinger’s efforts to bring Washington and Moscow ever closer. In the past he unleashed the Chinese giant order to weaken the USSR, and now he is cooperating with the Russians as a means to keep China at bay. On the other hand, Washington has another obsession that has engendered a dangerous impression in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks. This impression, widely shared by American politicians and the military, is that the West can never co-exist with a multi-leadership ‘Sunni Political Islam’ but it definitely can with a single-leadership ‘Shiite Political Islam.’ Iran, the only country officially ruled by ‘Shiite Political Islam’, represents the best example of efficient control and discipline insured by a single authority. This ‘Shiite Iran’ is now a very valuable and important Asian and Arabian Gulf player in Washington’s calculations. Hence, trying to win over Iran as an ally makes sense for Washington, more so, since the Tehran leaders – like the Kremlin leadership – regard themselves fighting on the same front in the open-ended war against ‘Sunni Political Islam.’Add to the above the fact that the present tension between Russia and Turkey – which has been brought back by Recep Tayyip Erdogan under the banners of ‘Sunni Political Islam’ – represents a vital element in the process of redrawing the geo-political map of the whole Middle East, not only the ‘near east’ of the Fertile Crescent. Based on this, the unfolding tragic events in Syria give the impression that there is an implicit agreement between Washington, Moscow and Tehran, with Israel’s approval, on the following:
1. To destroy ‘Sunni Political Islam’ throughout the region at any cost.
2. To take the Kurds out of the equation as a prelude to creating a ‘Greater Kurdistan’ which may not leave Turkey unscathed.
3. After eradicating any ‘Arab option’, first by Washington and later by Tehran, to move forward with the plans to establish new sectarian entities replacing the old and dilapidated ‘Sykes-Picot Agreement’ entities now approaching 100 years old.
4. To benefit from China’s – the future adversary – mutual interest in fighting the two common enemies: ‘Sunni Political Islam’ and Turkic nationalism, both currently fuelling the separatist struggle in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (or East Turkestan).
How would or should the Arabs react? I think they have no choice but to realise the interest-based ingredients of the wide international alliance before them, and comprehend that fighting the whole world is not the answer; especially since ‘Political Islam, both Sunni and Shiite, has caused the region enough disasters. In fact, some of the worst atrocities attributed to extremist ‘Sunni Political Islam’ were hatched in the intelligence agencies in countries ruled by ‘Shiite Political Islam.’ In addition to dubious ISIS, the links of some al-Qaeda figures with Iran are well-known and documented, and so are the diligent efforts of the Syrian regime’s intelligences apparatus in creating and orchestrating the activities of ‘Fatah Al-Islam’ in Lebanon and the Abu Al-Qa’qa’ phenomenon and his Al-Qaeda “gifts” to Iraq.

http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletin16/english.february15.16.htm

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News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to go to the LCCC Daily English/Arabic News Buletins Archieves Since 2006