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Bible Quotations For Today
The scribes and the Pharisees sit on Moses’ seat; therefore, do whatever they teach you and follow it; but do not do as they do, for they do not practise what they teach.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 23/01-12: "Then Jesus said to the crowds and to his disciples, ‘The scribes and the Pharisees sit on Moses’ seat; therefore, do whatever they teach you and follow it; but do not do as they do, for they do not practise what they teach. They tie up heavy burdens, hard to bear, and lay them on the shoulders of others; but they themselves are unwilling to lift a finger to move them. They do all their deeds to be seen by others; for they make their phylacteries broad and their fringes long. They love to have the place of honour at banquets and the best seats in the synagogues, and to be greeted with respect in the market-places, and to have people call them rabbi. But you are not to be called rabbi, for you have one teacher, and you are all students. And call no one your father on earth, for you have one Father the one in heaven. Nor are you to be called instructors, for you have one instructor, the Messiah. The greatest among you will be your servant. All who exalt themselves will be humbled, and all who humble themselves will be exalted."

During a severe ordeal of affliction, their abundant joy and their extreme poverty have overflowed in a wealth of generosity on their part.
Second Letter to the Corinthians 08/01-09/: "We want you to know, brothers and sisters, about the grace of God that has been granted to the churches of Macedonia; for during a severe ordeal of affliction, their abundant joy and their extreme poverty have overflowed in a wealth of generosity on their part. For, as I can testify, they voluntarily gave according to their means, and even beyond their means, begging us earnestly for the privilege of sharing in this ministry to the saints and this, not merely as we expected; they gave themselves first to the Lord and, by the will of God, to us, so that we might urge Titus that, as he had already made a beginning, so he should also complete this generous undertaking among you. Now as you excel in everything in faith, in speech, in knowledge, in utmost eagerness, and in our love for you so we want you to excel also in this generous undertaking. I do not say this as a command, but I am testing the genuineness of your love against the earnestness of others. For you know the generous act of our Lord Jesus Christ, that though he was rich, yet for your sakes he became poor, so that by his poverty you might become rich."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 23/16
Tyrants in Lebanon, martyrs in Syria/Myra Abdallah/Now Lebanon/February 22/16
When Lebanon becomes an Iranian colony/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/Monday, 22 February 2016
Only the Lebanese can save Lebanon now/Faisal J. Abbas/Al Arabiya/February 22/16
Saad Hariri versus the ‘supreme leader’/Khairallah Khairallah/Al Arabiya/Monday, 22 February 2016
The Iranian Messenger/Ahmad El-Assaad /February 22/16
Lebanon’s political soap opera must end/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Now Lebanon/February 22/16
Does Hezbollah seek Israel’s elimination? ‘Not so,’ says Nasrallah/Al-Monitor/February 22/16
Palestinians: Kerry and the Game of Obfuscation/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/February 22, 2016
What to Expect in Iran/Jagdish N. Singh/ Gatestone Institute/February 22/16
Obama’s Iranian ‘moderates’ are anything but/Amir Taheri/New York Post/February 21/16
Meet the Shin Bet’s new director/Alex Fishman/Ynetnews/February 22/16
Is beneath you a horse or a donkey/Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 22/16
How Putin is winning in Syria/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/Monday, 22 February 2016
Moscow to the Arabs: Iran is our top ally/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/Monday, 22 February 2016

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on February 23/16
Lebanon PM to visit Gulf after Saudi aid cutoff
Riyadh confirms military aid halt to Lebanon
Tyrants in Lebanon, martyrs in Syria
Cabinet 'Unanimous' in Committing to 'Arab Consensus on Common Issues' as Salam Prepares for Arab Tour
Hariri Urges Saudi King 'Not to Abandon Lebanon': Rogue Voices Attacking Kingdom Don't Represent Lebanese
Salam Says Saudi Aid Suspension a 'Passing Cloud'
Jumblat Urges 'Real Dissociation' Policy, Hariri Says President Presence Resolves Problems
Bassil Slams 'Outcry' over Saudi Move, Favors 'National Unity' over 'Arab Consensus'
Army Arrests IS Official in Arsal amid Clashes with Armed Groups
Rifi: I Cannot Stay in a Hizbullah Controlled Government
International Body Says Lebanon Meets Anti-money Laundering Conditions
Berri Says Lebanon Should Hold onto 'Arab Consensus,' Advises Politicians to Stop 'Chattering'
Nasrallah’s plan to 'Persianise' Lebanon
When Lebanon becomes an Iranian colony
Only the Lebanese can save Lebanon now
Saad Hariri versus the ‘supreme leader’
The Iranian Messenger
Lebanon’s political soap opera must end
Does Hezbollah seek Israel’s elimination? ‘Not so,’ says Nasrallah

Lebanon PM to visit Gulf after Saudi aid cutoff
The Associated Press, Beirut Monday, 22 February 2016/Lebanon's Prime Minister says he will head a ministerial delegation to visit Gulf states in the near future after Saudi Arabia halted security assistance deals worth $4 billion. The Saudi move came after Lebanon failed to back the Sunni kingdom in its spat with Shiite powerhouse Iran, the leading backer of Hezbollah. In a statement Monday, Lebanese Prime Minister Tammam Salam insisted Beirut stands by Arab countries. Salam says it is necessary to rectify relations between Lebanon and its "brothers," and "remove the stains" that surfaced recently. Salam heads a unity Cabinet that includes members of an Iran-backed coalition headed by Hezbollah and the Saudi-supported March 14 group. Salam said Lebanon will maintain its policy of "disassociation" from regional conflicts.

Riyadh confirms military aid halt to Lebanon
By Staff writer Al Arabiya English Monday, 22 February 2016/Saudi Arabia on Monday reaffirmed its support to the Lebanese people, despite confirming the suspension of a $3 billion military aid package to Lebanon. In a statement, made during a cabinet session chaired by Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, the council ministers said the suspension was a response to Beirut’s “non-condemnation of the flagrant attacks on the Kingdom’s Embassy in Tehran and Consulate General in Mashhad.” The cabinet also denounced Lebanese militant group Hezbollah’s “practices of terrorism against Arab and Islamic nations.”The statement said Saudi Arabia’s constant “support and assistance” to Lebanon had been met with “unjustified” Lebanese positions. However, it said Saudi Arabia would continue to support Lebanese people from all sects, and expressed appreciation of the solidarity shown toward the kingdom by some Lebanese officials and figures, including Prime Minister Tammam Salam.

Tyrants in Lebanon, martyrs in Syria
Myra Abdallah/Now Lebanon/February 22/16
Syrian Social National Party (SSNP) member Adonis Nasr, known as “Ado,” who is infamous for assaulting journalist Christopher Hitchens in Beirut, died last week in Latakia, Syria. Referred to as the “Eagle of the Swastika,” Christian Lebanese Nasr has reportedly been fighting in Syria alongside Hezbollah and the Syrian regime. Many news outlets have reported that Nasr— who was the media officer for “Eagles of the Swastika” Forces, the military branch of the SSNP in Syria— was killed by a “terrorist missile” that hit the vehicle he was in.
In 2009, Christopher Hitchens, who reportedly came to Lebanon to participate in the annual memorial rally of assassinated Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, was assaulted by Nasr and other SSNP members on Hamra Street in Beirut for “vandalizing” an image of the party’s swastika. In an article published by Vanity Fair, Hitchens described the incident:
“Well, call me old-fashioned if you will, but I have always taken the view that swastika symbols exist for one purpose only—to be defaced. Telling my two companions to hold on for a second, I flourish my trusty felt-tip and begin to write some offensive words on the offending poster. I say “begin” because I have barely gotten to the letter k in a well-known transitive verb when I am grabbed by my shirt collar by a venomous little thug, his face glittering with hysterical malice. With his other hand, he is speed-dialing for backup on his cell phone. As always with episodes of violence, things seem to slow down and quicken up at the same time: the eruption of mayhem in broad daylight happening with the speed of lightning yet somehow held in freeze-frame. It becomes evident, as the backup arrives, that this gang wants to take me away.”
People who spend a lot of time in Hamra probably know Ado, but more importantly, they know that the SSNP maintains a largely hostile presence on that particular street in Beirut. A lot of stories reported the violent reactions of the party’s member towards their opponents, or simply, the people they do not like.
Civilian opponents being beaten up by SSNP members in Hamra became a normal news headline. In addition, in 2012 for example, they assaulted a Lebanese security forces officer who was passing by the SSNP office in Hamra; and in 2014, they attacked the Lebanese army; journalists were also victims of these violent attacks. Pub owners, regular coffee shop goers, residents, activists of Hamra know for a fact that nothing happens on this particular street in Beirut without the knowledge, not to say the approval, of the SSNP, and whoever challenges them or tries to openly express disapproval of their politics knows how violent and dangerous they can be.
Although Hezbollah is definitely more involved in the Syrian war than the SSNP, the latter has already lost three of its members in the Syrian war. Last week, Nasr joined the list of the party’s martyrs killed in Syria, which previously included Nasr’s friend – Mohammad Awad – and Adham Najm. A longtime ally of the Syrian regime, secular SSNP is a de facto Hezbollah ally, the number one Shiite oppressor in Lebanon and Bashar al-Assad’s ally.
Hezbollah is far from being a democratic party as well. The Party of God’s opponents face all types of pressure, occasional abductions, attempts to silence them, threats, and both direct and indirect messages sent by party members or supporters. However, Hezbollah does not always use the force of direct violence like the SSNP. The powerful party, which controls Lebanese politics and that has been given the power of its “divine weapon,” does not always need to use violence. Indirect messages, accusations of being Israeli agents, media campaigns against opponents, and family members who disown the “black sheep” of the family (who speak out against Hezbollah or its General-Secretary Hassan Nasrallah) are an always-ready tool used to silence those who vocally oppose the divine party, or who uncover their activities, such as recruitment of fighters, corruption in South Lebanon and other Hezbollah-controlled areas and suspicious monetary activities around the world for example. In Hezbollah’s case, journalists or activists being abducted or threatened for speaking up against the party – without being necessarily beaten up – also became normal headlines.
Being oppressors in Lebanon, they know how to do it. They know how to silence people and beat them up. They have controlled areas, empires, fortresses where no one who speaks against them is allowed to enter. It is of no surprise that both parties allied with Syria’s dictator; not only because they share the same ideologies, believe in the unity of path and fate, work together, fight together, live together and die together, but they also share techniques of oppression and tyranny. They threaten and try to dominate similarly. For them, the world that contradicts them should not exist.
**Myra Abdallah tweets @myraabdallah, and she knows she won’t be having drinks in Hamra anytime soon.

Cabinet 'Unanimous' in Committing to 'Arab Consensus on Common Issues' as Salam Prepares for Arab Tour
Naharnet/February 22/16/The cabinet voiced on Monday its unanimous and constant support to Arab countries, stressing Lebanon's Arab identity and its role as a founding members of the Arab League. “We are committed to Arab consensus on the common issues," said a cabinet statement recited by Prime Minister Tammam Salam after an extraordinary session at the Grand Serail. The government had convened on Monday following Saudi Arabia's decision last week to halt a $4 billion grant to the Lebanese army and security forces. The stance came after Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil declined to support Saudi resolutions against Iran during two meetings of Arab and Muslim foreign ministers.Bassil is the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, which is one of the strongest allies of the Iran-backed Hizbullah. “Lebanon will not forget Saudi Arabia's role in reaching the Taef accord and in helping it rebuild the country after the civil war,” continued Salam after the cabinet session that lasted more than six hours. “Lebanon will not forget that Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries have hosted Lebanese expatriates, who contributed to achieving prosperity in these states,” he added. The premier stressed that Lebanon must bolster its ties with Arab countries and overcome various obstacles that have recently arisen. He revealed that he will hold a series of contacts with Arab figures before embarking on a tour of Arab states. He told reporters: “We strongly condemn the attack against Riyadh's embassy in Tehran, which goes against international treaties.”Saudi Arabia's decision to halt its grant to the Lebanese army sparked a wave of condemnation in Lebanon against Hizbullah and Bassil. Hizbullah is supported by Saudi Arabia's regional rival Iran, with whom relations have worsened this year. Riyadh cut diplomatic ties with Tehran last month after demonstrators stormed its embassy and a consulate following the Saudi execution of a prominent Saudi Shiite cleric and activist, Nimr al-Nimr. A Saudi official quoted by the Saudi Press Agency on Friday said the kingdom had noticed "hostile Lebanese positions resulting from the stranglehold of Hizbullah on the State."He also deplored the "political and media campaigns inspired by Hizbullah against Saudi Arabia," as well as what he called the group's "terrorist acts against Arab and Muslim nations." Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Tuesday accused Turkey and Saudi Arabia of dragging the entire region into war and said "victory" was imminent for his group and its Syrian regime allies.

Hariri Urges Saudi King 'Not to Abandon Lebanon': Rogue Voices Attacking Kingdom Don't Represent Lebanese
Naharnet/February 22/16/Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri on Monday urged Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz not to “abandon Lebanon,” a few days after the kingdom decided to halt $4 billion in military aid to Lebanon over what it called "hostile Lebanese positions resulting from the stranglehold of Hizbullah on the State."“Loyalty to the kingdom means loyalty to Lebanon and any insult against the kingdom represents an insult against Lebanon,” said Hariri at a press conference. “Diplomacy is the policy of ironing out the differences but some are using it to destroy Lebanon's ties with its Arab brothers,” Hariri added, hitting out at Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil. Accusing Bassil and the foreign ministry of “breaching Arab consensus,” the ex-PM described recent Lebanese diplomatic stances as “a sin that has made Lebanon, the Lebanese people and the military and security institutions pay the price.”He was referring to Bassil's abstention from voting on Arab League and world Muslim body statements condemning attacks by protesters on Saudi Arabia's embassy and consulate in Iran. The minister had objected to a phrase describing Hizbullah as “terrorist” in the Arab League statement. “Not respecting ethics and the national interest in addressing brotherly countries is a political crime against the State and the interests of the Lebanese,” Hariri added, referring to recent anti-Saudi statements by Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. “We are gathered here to say in a loud voice that we will return any insults addressed to Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf States. We are here to say that no one can revoke Lebanon’s Arab identity and that state institutions are not protectorates for the Iranian policies in the region,” Hariri stressed. “We paid with blood and martyrs and will continue the path of peaceful national struggle to protect Lebanon’s Arab identity and the integrity of its people,” he pledged.Addressing Saudi Arabia and its leadership and the leaders of the Gulf states, Hariri underlined that “the rogue voices attacking (them) do not speak in the name of Lebanon and the Lebanese and do not represent them.”“These are the voices of those who turned against Arabism and withdrew from the national consensus. We will not give them the chance to seize the Lebanese Republic regardless of the challenges,” Hariri vowed. “We will remain the sons of the State and will not hand the State to anyone. Our choice is the State, and our project is to build the State. We did not surrender in the past and we will not surrender now. Our identity is Arabism and our destiny is Arabism,” he went on to say. Hariri then urged King Salman “not to abandon Lebanon and to continue supporting it.”Hariri also called on all Lebanese “without exception, from all regions and sects, residents and expatriates,” to sign a petition of “solidarity with the Arab consensus, and of loyalty to the brotherly Arab countries.”
Below is the text of the petition:
“In order to preserve Lebanon's higher interest. Based on the responsibility of Lebanon, as a founding member of the Arab League,we the signatories of this national petition confirm the following:
1. The commitment of the Lebanese people and State to the obligations of the Arab consensus.
2. The rejection of the campaigns that distort the image of Lebanon and harm its fraternal relations with our brothers in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
3. The appeal to the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdul Aziz, and to the leaders of the GCC countries, not to abandon Lebanon and to continue supporting it.
Lebanon will remain a model of coexistence, loyal to its Arab belonging, and strong in its commitment to the independence of the country and its free decision.”

Salam Says Saudi Aid Suspension a 'Passing Cloud'
Naharnet/February 22/Prime Minister Tammam Salam has said that the resignation of Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi did not come at the appropriate time, downplaying a decision by Saudi Arabia to halt deals worth $4 billion aimed at equipping and supporting the Lebanese army. Salam told his visitors that the Saudi decision to suspend the deals was a “passing cloud.” “We should express our solidarity with the kingdom,” Salam, whose remarks were published in As Safir daily on Monday, said. He said he called for an extraordinary cabinet session on Monday to “straighten things up.”“As prime minister and its official spokesman I am in charge along with the cabinet of maintaining ties with the Arab brethren,” said Salam. Rifi, a fierce opponent of Hizbullah, said Sunday he was resigning over the group's "domination" of the government. Rifi's decision came two days after Saudi Arabia announced it was suspending the aid to the army over "hostile" positions it said were inspired by Hizbullah. Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil, who is the head of the Free Patriotic Movement that is allied with Hizbullah, has recently declined to support Saudi resolutions against Iran during two meetings of Arab and Muslim foreign ministers. Salam denied that Bassil consulted him on the closing statement of the meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. As for the Arab League meeting, Bassil “consulted me on mentioning Hizbullah in the statement. I told him we can't accept that,” said Salam. “The Arabs expressed understanding” to the stance, he added. Salam urged Saudi King Salman to review the Saudi decision and “to contribute to the consolidation of the Lebanese identity and its Arab character.”

Jumblat Urges 'Real Dissociation' Policy, Hariri Says President Presence Resolves Problems
Naharnet/February 22/16/Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri and Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblat held a meeting Monday with former president Michel Suleiman at his Yarze residence. The meeting was also attended by the ministers who represent Suleiman in the cabinet – Samir Moqbel, Alice Shabtini and Abdul Mutalleb Hennawi – in addition to Minister Wael Abou Faour of the PSP and Hariri's adviser Nader Hariri. “Lebanon is going through a very difficult period in the absence of a president and, in my opinion, this is the real problem in the country,” said Hariri upon his arrival. “Had there been a president, things would've been different, addressing them would've been easier and the cabinet would've been more efficient,” Hariri added. Turning to the issue of the row with Saudi Arabia over Lebanon's recent diplomatic stances and Hizbullah's verbal attacks, Hariri described the Lebanese foreign ministry's decision to refrain from voting on an Arab League statement condemning Iran as a “sin against Lebanon and the Lebanese.”“The foreign minister (Jebran Bassil) must stop saying that he coordinated his stance with the prime minister,” Hariri added. Jumblat meanwhile described a statement issued Monday by the Lebanese government on the ties with Saudi Arabia and the Arab countries as “beneficial,” noting that it was issued after a “compromise” by the parties that are represented in the cabinet. “We do not want to be in a certain axis against another and we want to stress the importance of the policy of real dissociation (from regional conflicts) that was carved out by president Michel Suleiman,” Jumblat added.

Bassil Slams 'Outcry' over Saudi Move, Favors 'National Unity' over 'Arab Consensus'
Naharnet/February 22/16/Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil charged Monday that some domestic parties have taken advantage of the latest row with Saudi Arabia in order to attack their domestic rivals, while stressing that “national unity” is more important than “Arab consensus.”“The ministerial Policy Statement dissociates Lebanon from the crises that are surrounding us and the communique that was issued by the cabinet today reflected this,” said Bassil at a press conference that followed a marathon cabinet session. “Two days before the Arab League meeting, the Foreign Ministry condemned attacks against (Saudi) diplomatic missions (in Iran) and we voiced solidarity with Saudi Arabia,” he noted. “After consulting with PM (Tammam) Salam, and out of our commitment to the (ministerial) Policy Statement, we wrote our stance in a signed letter and handed it to the Arab League and we objected against the mention of Hizbullah,” Bassil added. Saudi Arabia decided last week to halt a $4 billion grant to the Lebanese army and security forces and to review its diplomatic relations with Lebanon. The stance came after Bassil declined to support Saudi-backed resolutions against Iran during two meetings of Arab and Muslim foreign ministers. Bassil is the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, which is one of the strongest allies of the Iran-backed Hizbullah. “Between Arab consensus and national unity, we side with national unity,” stressed Bassil on Monday. “The injustice that we're facing is the price we're paying for creating an independent policy that neutralizes Lebanon,” he added. He also claimed that there is a “political outcry to attack certain domestic parties” in the wake of Saudi Arabia's move.“There will be a real problem if they (Arab countries) don't understand Lebanon and its internal unity and dissociation policy,” he added. Earlier in the day, the Lebanese government issued a statement after strenuous discussions among its members, in which it underlined its “commitment to Arab consensus on the common issues."Bassil's remarks drew a swift response from Prime Minister Tammam Salam, who issued a statement noting that “Lebanon's foreign policy, especially in terms of the relations with the brotherly Arab countries, was clearly and unambiguously defined in the statement that was issued after the cabinet's emergency meeting.”“Today's cabinet statement was approved by all ministers, including Minister Bassil himself, and any deviation from this text is a personal stance that does not reflect Lebanon's official stance,” Salam added.

Army Arrests IS Official in Arsal amid Clashes with Armed Groups
Naharnet/February 22/16/The army succeeded on Monday in arresting an official from the extremist Islamic State group in the northeastern border town of Arsal, reported the National News Agency. He was identified as Ahmed Ammoun. The arrest was made amid clashes between the military and armed groups in Arsal. NNA said that IS gunmen opened fire at the house of a member of the Webeh family after Ammoun was arrested, accusing the former of informing on the extremist. This led to the clashes between the army and gunmen. A member of the Internal Security Forces, Hussein Ali al-Fleiti, was wounded as he was passing in the area. Ammoun is responsible for several assassinations that have taken place in Arsal, said NNA. The army frequently engages in fighting with extremist groups that are entrenched along the porous Lebanese-Syrian border. A major confrontation erupted in August 2014 when the IS and al-Qaida-affiliated al-Nusra Front group overran Arsal in the wake of the arrest of a senior IS leader. Nineteen soldiers and around 60 militants were killed in the fighting. The jihadists of the two groups also abducted during the battle dozens of troops and policemen of which four were eventually executed.

Rifi: I Cannot Stay in a Hizbullah Controlled Government
Naharnet/February 22/16/In a telephone call with Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc chief Fouad Saniora, Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi reiterated more than once that his resignation from the cabinet was driven by his inability to carry on in a government “governed by the will of Hizbullah.”“I can not tolerate this anymore. Things have reached their edge. Even our relations with Saudi Arabia are threatened now after we defied the Arab consensus,” As Safir daily quoted Rifi as saying. “I can no longer be taken advantage of by Hizbullah. The cabinet is incapable of solving the waste crisis and has done nothing in the case of (former Minister) Michel Samaha and we are helpless and cannot even protect our relations with the Arabs. We have turned into a Hizbullah government,” added the Minister.To that, Saniora told Rifi that he should have coordinated with the March 14 camp on his decision to resign. “We might have submitted a collective resignation,” he said, adding “your resignation came against the March 14 orientation.”“I have urged everyone to resign and I hope that ministers of al-Mustaqbal and March 14 would do so. Let us leave the government standing instead of falling in the trash file,” said Rifi pointing that the cabinet has failed over four sessions to discuss the referral of the Samaha file to the Judicial council as per his request. The Justice Minister stressed that the cabinet decisions have become controlled by Hizbullah. He stated: “We are being used by Hizbullah. I do not accept my presence in a cabinet that functions in Hizbullah's favor to be taken advantage of,” he noted stressing that he should have submitted his resignation long before, dubbing the discussions on the trash file at the cabinet as “shameful.” Rifi submitted his resignation on Sunday in the wake of the release of Michel Samaha from jail who was released in January after being caught red-handed in 2012 while smuggling explosives from Syria to Lebanon to carry out attacks in the country. He was sentenced in May 2015 to four-and-half years in prison, but in June, the Cassation Court nullified the verdict and ordered a retrial. His release in early 2016 sparked uproar in the country with Rifi vowing to refer the case to the International Criminal Court after his demand to refer it to the Judicial Council was unheeded. Saudi Arabia said on Friday that it has halted a $4 billion programs for military supplies to Lebanon in protest against Hizbullah's policies and recent diplomatic stances by the Lebanese foreign ministry.The move brought widespread condemnation from the March 14 alliance against Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement, whose leader is Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil.

International Body Says Lebanon Meets Anti-money Laundering Conditions
Naharnet/February 22/16/The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has stressed that Lebanon meets all the necessary conditions for fighting money laundering, Central Bank governor Riyad Salameh said Monday. FATF, a 32-nation body established in 1989, sets standards and promotes effective implementation of legal, regulatory and operational measures for combating money laundering, terrorist financing and other related threats to the integrity of the international financial system. FATF said at a plenary meeting it held in Paris last week that Lebanon “meets legally and in practice all the required conditions to combat money laundering and terrorist financing,” Salameh told As Safir daily. FATF called on government financial intelligence agencies to give extra scrutiny to transactions and business relationships involving Iran and North Korea. It also welcomed efforts by Algeria, Angola and Panama to tighten their anti-money laundering precautions. But it said it still assessed that there are "strategic deficiencies" in the anti-money laundering efforts of Afghanistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Guyana, Iraq, Laos, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, Syria, Uganda, Vanuatu and Yemen. Seven countries, including Lebanon, no longer needed follow up or new measures, it said.

Berri Says Lebanon Should Hold onto 'Arab Consensus,' Advises Politicians to Stop 'Chattering'
Naharnet/February 22/16/Speaker Nabih Berri has said that a cabinet session, which is set to be held on Monday, is necessary to underline Lebanon's foreign policy, advising politicians to stop “chattering” about a Saudi decision to halt deals worth $4 billion aimed at equipping and supporting the Lebanese army.
The cabinet session “is necessary to underline Lebanon's foreign policy,” which is based on the dissociation policy and on backing Arab consensus on joint Arab issues, Berri told his visitors in Ain el-Tineh. Asked about the Saudi aid suspension, Berri, whose remarks were published in al-Joumhouria daily on Monday, expressed surprise at what he termed “the chatter.”The speaker warned that the tension resulting from the reactions of Lebanese politicians to the Saudi move leads to strife. Prime Minister Tammam Salam called for the extraordinary cabinet session after Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi resigned from the government to protest Hizbullah’s “domination.” Rifi also held Hizbullah responsible for straining Lebanon’s relations with Riyadh, which on Friday announced the decision to halt the $4 billion-worth deals in retaliation to Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil's rejection to support Saudi resolutions against Iran during two meetings of Arab and Muslim foreign ministers. Berri told his visitors that on every occasion, Iran stresses that it is keen on establishing good relations with Saudi Arabia. “The Iranian leadership swiftly condemned the attack on the Saudi Embassy in Tehran,” said Berri.“Is Lebanon stronger than Iran” so that each politician acts according to his own interest? asked the speaker. Saudi Arabia and Iran are longtime rivals. Relations took a turn for the worse at the start of the year, when Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shiite cleric and protesters stormed Saudi diplomatic posts in Iran. That prompted Riyadh to cut diplomatic relations with Tehran. Berri stressed the importance of preserving the best of ties between Lebanon and Arab countries, mainly Saudi Arabia. Resolving the problem that arose after the Saudi decision “is for the sake of Lebanon,” he said.

Nasrallah’s plan to 'Persianise' Lebanon
Al Arabiya/Monday, 22 February 2016
Leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah group, Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, is trying to transform the Arab nation of Lebanon into a Persian state, by committing massacres and blaming them on Arabs and Sunnis.

When Lebanon becomes an Iranian colony
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/Monday, 22 February 2016
I don’t think Saudi Arabia decided to halt its support to the Lebanese army, security forces and other institutions because it is angry about what some Lebanese media outlets are saying against it. The involvement of some newspapers and television stations in the campaign to promote hostile Iranian rhetoric – which opposes Saudi Arabia and incites against it and against other Arab moderate countries – is not pressing. I think Saudi Arabia halted its support for more dangerous and more significant reasons. Saudi Arabia had allocated $3 billion to the Lebanese army and $1 billion to the Lebanese security forces to develop their capabilities and train them. It did not set conditions for Lebanon to get involved in foreign wars or join regional alliances. The aim was to strengthen the central authority in the country by supporting state institutions against militias’ intimidating acts and helping them fight extremist organizations. The whole idea was to fill the vacuum left by the withdrawal of Syrian troops following a decision taken by the U.N. Security Council after the Assad regime was found involved in the assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
As Saudi Arabia extended its hand of support to strengthen the Lebanese state, Hezbollah intensified its efforts to take over authority as it did not settle with the large share it already has. It employed Lebanese military institutions to serve its purposes in the war in Syria and exploited these institutions inside Lebanon. It also worked on using the Lebanese foreign ministry to support Iranian stances in international gatherings and dared exploit Lebanon’s banking system, which was well-known as the best in the region, for illegal trading activities, involving drugs and arms, across the world.
The last two consecutive governments and the former president have failed to curb Hezbollah. What’s more dangerous is that the army itself failed to dissociate its forces and it became exploited by Hezbollah to employ it in the Iranian war in Syria. Hezbollah dragged the army to have it deploy its forces in areas like Aarsal, and then it used these forces to pursue whom it described as terrorists from among the Syrian opposition.
Border with Syria
It also exploited conditions close to the border which the Lebanese and the Syrians used for funding and passing through. Hezbollah distanced the army from northern areas which its (Hezbollah’s) fighters use on their way to and from Syria. This is the case with borders and roads which lead to Syria. Inside Lebanon, Hezbollah prohibited the army from entering Beirut’s southern suburb which it considers outside the authority of the Lebanese state. It has also been said that Hezbollah is building a military airfield in the Beqaa town of Iaat to carry out more of its suspicious activities.
Hezbollah also controls the security at Beirut airport and kidnaps and searches whoever it wants. Its militias have kidnapped peaceful Iranian opposition figures and threatened some media outlets for criticizing the supreme guide in Tehran and its proxy in Beirut’s southern suburb.
All this intimidation increased at a time when the U.S. Treasury and the Drug Enforcement Administration issued detailed information on Hezbollah’s involvement in drug trade and announced that a number of the party’s agents have been arrested in the past few weeks in Lithuania, France, Belgium, Columbia and the U.S. The American government said investigating Hezbollah’s network has been going on since February 2015 and it has turned out that it uses Lebanon as a center to manage its activities in many countries in Europe and Americas to launder money and buy weapons.
As Saudi Arabia extended its hand of support to strengthen the Lebanese state, Hezbollah intensified its efforts to take over authority. It said Lebanon has become one of the most dangerous centers for drug trafficking in the world, which has led to a number of Lebanese banks being placed under international supervision and their records reviewed. Hezbollah has deliberately weakened and humiliated army and security forces institutions to the extent that no one dare confront the shabiha (thugs) of Hezbollah and Amal Movement even when they attack people during demonstrations against the trash crisis.
It’s no longer logical for Saudi Arabia to support Lebanon’s military and civil institutions some of which now serve Hezbollah and thus Iran. Saudi Arabia had hoped to strengthen state institutions and the central authority in order to support the independence of the Lebanese state’s foreign and domestic political decisions. Hezbollah has deliberately undertaken the role of the party sabotaging the state and obstructing its affairs. It has forced the exclusion of certain former or potential prime ministers, prevented the nomination of certain figures for presidency and halted parliamentary work to paralyze the institutions of presidency, government and army, placing the Central Bank in the circle of international suspicions and attaching the country’s foreign ministry to that of Iran. Hezbollah wants to turn Lebanon into an Iranian colony. Its practices all complement the Velayat-e-Faqih’s project to dominate Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Under these circumstances, the policy of strengthening, training and arming the Lebanese army and security forces is no longer logical. Even though Saudi Arabia has halted its support, Saudi Arabia will remain the hope of moderate parties in their battle against the militias of Iran and their allies so the country is not up for grabs in this raging regional war.

Only the Lebanese can save Lebanon now
Faisal J. Abbas/Al Arabiya/February 22/16
Much has been said about the tension between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, however, it was HRH Prince Turki al-Faisal who seems to have hit the nail on the head in describing the situation. Speaking in his personal capacity yesterday in Abu Dhabi at a round table organized by the Beirut Institute, Prince Turki (who is a former ambassador and intelligence chief) said Lebanon has always been regarded as the "lung" of the Arab world. "The problem is that this lung is now suffering from pneumonia," he elaborated. Of course, the Saudis have long known this to be the case, and have tried on numerous occasions to boost Lebanon's immunity against Iranian militant virus Hezbollah. In fact, the $3 billion in military and security aid (which Riyadh has just announced halting) was the last in a series of attempts to help strengthen the formal Lebanese army and police force. It's now up to the Lebanese (and the Lebanese alone) to cut off the Iranian tentacles strangling their nation
However, ever since the assassination of Saudi-backed PM Rafiq Hariri in 2005 (which Hezbollah is formally accused of), Iran - through its loyal local agents - has been systematically demolishing all what was left of the Hariri legacy, which was aimed at rebuilding the country, restoring hope and bringing peace and prosperity to ALL Lebanese. The last straw was when Lebanon's pro-Hezbollah Foreign Minister, Gebran Bassil, recently refused to support an Arab League statement denouncing Iranian meddling in the region following the attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran.
Of course, many Lebanese politicians and concerned citizens voiced their objection to the position of FM Basil, however it seems Riyadh is now convinced that there is no way to help Lebanon unless it decides to help itself first.
A picture is a thousand words
Critics will probably ask why Saudi’s interference is being painted positively, while Iran’s is being portrayed as a destabilizing force. Well, it is said that a picture is worth a thousand words, and those who are in doubt must only revert to an image which recently went viral that really does say it all.
The picture compares a prosperous Lebanon which was rebuilt following the Taif Accord (a Saudi initiative which brought an end to the devastating 15-year civil war), to the country which was left to rot under piles of uncollected garbage last year. Indeed, Lebanon - once dubbed the Switzerland of the Orient - is now a shadow of its former self. Thanks to Iranian meddling, it has failed to agree on a president since 2014, and continues to have a defunct parliament and a crippled Prime Minster. One could argue whether or not the cutting off of Saudi aid might risk Lebanon further leaning towards Tehran, however, the reality is that it's now up to the Lebanese (and the Lebanese alone) to cut off the Iranian tentacles strangling their nation. However, as many Saudis would tell you, the recent escalation is in no way an act against its population, or the "Lebanese who played a major part in the building of Saudi Arabia" (as Prince Turki described them). This was further evident in today’s Saudi cabinet statement which stressed that the kingdom will continue to support the Lebanese people. Indeed, Riyadh was both gracious and wise not to lend its ears to the reckless comments made by the pro-Iranian lobbyists in Lebanon, for it knows far too well that these opportunists will be the only ones to prosper from a complete breakdown of the relationship. As for the cutting of military aid, it most definitely should be understood the way it was intended: "You can't have the cake, and eat it too!"

Saad Hariri versus the ‘supreme leader’
Khairallah Khairallah/Al Arabiya/Monday, 22 February 2016
Former Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri touched upon several important issues in his speech delivered recently. The most important part of his speech was: “Lebanon will not be, under any circumstances, an Iranian province. We are Arabs, and Arabs we shall remain.” This goes on to show that there is awareness as far as the dangers of Iranian expansionism is concerned. Hariri was speaking at an event marking the 11th anniversary of his father Rafiq Hariri's assassination. Throughout his speech, he referred to efforts being made to get rid of his father’s legacy. He said he was aware of the plots against Lebanon since Syrian President Bashar al-Assad insisted on extending the term of former Lebanese president Emile Lahoud. This was followed by a surge in assassinations, the 2006 war with Israel, an attempt to establish an Islamic emirate in northern Lebanon, and a sit-in in downtown Beirut intended to destroy the country’s economy and the city center.
Connecting links
All these events, followed by the invasion of Beirut and the Shouf Mountains by Hezbollah in May 2008, must be recalled. The party imposed itself on government formation by armed forces in order to humiliate the Sunnis and Christians, and to prepare for Hariri’s departure from Lebanon due to serious threats to his life. There is a “supreme leader” of Lebanon called Hassan Nasrallah who decides who will be president - Lebanese deputies are only required to validate what he decides. The link between these events appears today in the form of the presidential vacuum imposed by Hezbollah. It boycotted sessions to elect a president after it decided to participate in a sectarian conflict against the Syrian people by a ruling minority that has no legitimacy. Hezbollah will not elect a president unless its conditions are met - first and foremost, to have the final say in Lebanon, especially in presidential elections.
In his speech Hariri highlighted the risk of Hezbollah’s ambitions materializing. The danger lies in its desire to indirectly change the nature of the Lebanese system. There is a “supreme leader” of Lebanon called Hassan Nasrallah who decides who will be president - Lebanese deputies are only required to validate what he decides. Hariri emphasized that Lebanon’s president is elected by parliament and will not be chosen by Nasrallah. He said he would give his blessing to whosoever is elected. There is resistance to the take-over of Lebanon.

The Iranian Messenger
Ahmad El-Assaad /February 22/16
Judging by Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s most recent speech, Hezbollah has many regional concerns preventing it from dedicating some time to finish year-and-a-half-long crisis on the internal scene. These days, the Hezb is busy with delivering Iranian messages to Saudi Arabia and Turkey, saying that their military intervention in Syria will lead to a regional war, or even a world war. Certainly, the Hezb will be occupied in the battles in Syria, in defense of the Assad regime. Whereas on the internal level, it is reassured that the camp it faces is divided, lethargic, and unable to make a bold decision. Sayyed Hassan’s speech came to prove to you that Lebanon isn’t worth anything to the Hezb; other than the purpose it serves the Iranian regime. The Hezb has a mission much larger than Lebanon, i.e. achieving Iran’s goals. Once again, Hezbollah shows its true colors, as the first tool in the hands of the Iranian regime, its mouthpiece, its policy implementer, and the one to make its dream of building an empire in the Middle East come true. “Hezbollah” is Iran’s herald, delivering messages sealed with blood, or with insults, attacks and campaigns. This time, the message is addressed to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Sayyed Hassan is performing his role to perfection, delivering this message through one of his great speeches… The Hezb is comfortable from the inside, because its enemy is doing it the greatest favor of all, allowing it to dedicate its full time to political and military battles with a sister nation, and a friendly state, and developing hostility towards it. Therefore, it came as no surprise that Sayyed Hassan completely ignored the invitation of former PM Saad Hariri to go to the Parliament, and vote for one of the three presidential candidates. To begin with, the Hezb ignores the calls of a large portion of the Lebanese people urging it to let the democratic game take its course, by quitting to boycott the elections, and voting for one of the three candidates. As for the 14 March camp, it is dazed, confused and powerless. It doesn’t dare adopt any choices that would disturb Hezbollah’s peace, and reshuffle the cards in order to save the country from the vacuum’s whirlpool.

Lebanon’s political soap opera must end
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Now Lebanon/February 22/16
On March 19, 1984, An-Nahar ran a front-page story with the headline, “The big question: Lebanon’s fate, where to?” Thirty-two years later, this question remains unanswered.
On 19 March 1984, An-Nahar ran its lead story with a headline (see picture) that — 32 years later — is still begging an answer. “The big question,” the headline read, "Lebanon’s fate, where to?”
Reporting on “national dialogue” between Lebanon’s leaders in Lausanne, Switzerland, An-Nahar’s reporter Sarkis Naoum, now a columnist, could not hide his frustration. He wrote that seven days were enough for the creation of the universe, but not for an agreement among Lebanese politicians.
A year later in Damascus, Naoum helped draft the Tripartite Agreement, the precursor of the 1989 Taif Accord, which offered the theoretical framework for the conclusion of Lebanon’s 15-year civil war.
Yet despite the 1984 Lausanne Conference, the 1985 Tripartite Agreement, the 1989 Taif Accord, Israel’s implementation of UNSC 425 in 2000, the 2008 Doha Accord and over two dozen national dialogue sessions since 2006, a stalemate still persists in Lebanon.
Lebanon’s politics seem to be one long, futile and boring soap opera, whose cast of characters has remained the same. Like soap opera characters, Lebanese politicians speak a lot, but say little. And like soap opera plots, Lebanon’s political events have no regard to the intelligence of the viewer, with enemies easily turning into friends and vice versa.
An-Nahar’s 1984 coverage in Lausanne features 10 Lebanese leaders, three of whom — Speaker Nabih Berri, former President Amin Gemayel and lawmaker Walid Jumblatt — are still in the spotlight today.
The rest at Lausanne, namely presidents Camille Chamoun and Suleiman Franjieh, Speaker Adel Oseiran, prime ministers Saeb Salam and Rashid Karami and lawmaker Pierre Gemayel, have been long gone. However, Lebanon’s roaster of politicians today still includes their descendants, Prime Minister Tammam Salam and lawmakers Suleiman Franjieh (grandson of late President Franjieh), Dori Camille Chamoun, Ali Adel Osseiran, Ahmad Karami (nephew of Rashid), Samy Amin Gemayel (grandson of Pierre Gemayel).
Representing late Saudi King Fahed at the Lausanne Conference was Rafik Hariri, who served as prime minister and was succeeded, after his assassination in 2005, by his son former Prime Minister Saad Hariri.
Thus, Lebanon’s political soap opera continues. Last week, Hariri returned to Beirut and intimately hugged and kissed Samir Geagea (Christian leader since 1985) live on camera, weeks after Geagea had received his archrival Christian leader Aoun (another Christian leader since 1985) and endorsed Aoun’s presidential candidacy. The Geagea-Aoun love came weeks after Hariri had met and endorsed Franjieh for president. Aoun and Franjieh are both allies of Hezbollah, which does not seem in a hurry to choose between the two.
So Lebanon’s impasse continues and its inability to elect a president, 21 months after the retirement of its last president, persists, despite all the newfound love between politicians from across the aisle.
Meanwhile, Lebanon remains a garbage hole with a weak government, a receding economy, an ailing environment, an unsustainable public debt, high rates of brain drain and emigration, and antiquated laws that ban sectarian intermarriages and prohibit Lebanese women from passing their nationality to their offspring.
Clearly, the Lebanese political life is a soap opera that has no answer to the country’s problems. And clearly, Lebanon is stuck with the very same names that have been leading it from crisis to crisis over the past half century. It is not clear whom to blame; Lebanon’s leaders or their faithful followers. But it is clear that if Lebanon is ever to change, change can only come from the Lebanese and never from their leaders, since the leaders have no interest in altering a system that guarantees their power privileges indefinitely. And as long as the state is weak, the Lebanese will remain faithful to their strong tribo-sectarian leaders. And as long as these leaders are strong, the state will remain weak. No successful models of countries breaking away from the grip of their oligarchs exist. Popular uprisings have so far thrown away existing orders, but failed to replace them with anything equal or better.
Some baby steps on the way to change may include the Lebanese coming to realize that what they call “politics” is in fact a soap opera that has no relevance to their lives or their interests. Whether Aoun becomes president or not will really change nothing in the downward spiral of Lebanon. Just remember how his son-in-law asked for billions and promised uninterrupted supply of electricity. Years later, the billions were gone, and so was electricity. Whether Hariri and Geagea kiss and make up, whether Hezbollah finally chooses between Aoun and Franjieh, whether Berri opens Parliament or closes it are all issues that are closer to fiction than to real life. The Lebanese must stop watching their political soap opera, and must think instead of how to build a country, regardless of their leaders, and how to make Lebanon prosper.
**Hussain Abdul-Hussain is the Washington Bureau Chief of Kuwaiti newspaper Alrai.

Does Hezbollah seek Israel’s elimination? ‘Not so,’ says Nasrallah
Nasrallah maintains deterrence with Israel
Week in Review/Al-Monitor/February 22/16
Summary
Hezbollah leader says group will not open new front against Israel; Turkey’s two-front war; battles for Aleppo “unlike any others”; Saudi military exercise provides distraction.
Week in Review/Al Monitor/ February 22/2016
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah appeared to signal a possibly pragmatic turn in Hezbollah’s approach to Israel in a speech Feb. 16.
“If there is now a consensus in Israel on this characterization of the resistance in Lebanon, does it mean that Hezbollah is opening a front and wants to eliminate Israel from existence?” the Hezbollah chief asked. “The reality now is not so.”
The speech, not surprisingly, was otherwise laced with anti-Israeli rhetoric and threats; nothing new there. But Nasrallah this time drew the line at both establishing a new “front” with Israel and threatening Israel’s “existence.” In practical terms, his remarks implied that Hezbollah would keep the Lebanese and Syrian borders quiet.
Nasrallah’s approach could be understood as both deeply pragmatic, given the toll of the Syrian war on Hezbollah’s forces, and reflective of a more moderate trend in Iranian foreign policy. It is no exaggeration to suggest that what Nasrallah says in Beirut is approved in Tehran. Al-Monitor columns have traced a mostly steady deterrence between Israel and Hezbollah over the past two years. Ben Caspit wrote in December that the assessment in Jerusalem was that “war with Israel is the last thing that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei needs right now.”
Two years ago this week, this column suggested that US-Iran engagement on Syria, which is now happening in the International Syria Support Group, could, over time, eventually lead to a broader discussion about Hezbollah and its role in the region. A year later, in January 2015, we wrote, “We could, and probably should, imagine a more expansive conversation, somewhere, between the United States and its allies and Iran to defuse the crisis on Israel’s borders. All parties should have an interest in averting a confrontation involving Israel, Lebanon and Syria, which would threaten the hard-fought progress to date in the nuclear talks and the increasing alignment of US, coalition and Iranian actions in battling IS and al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria and Iraq.” Since that column, the nuclear talks are a done deal, and US Secretary of State John Kerry said just last month that Iran’s plan for Syria “needs to be explored” and is “very close to what Geneva has been trying to achieve.”
Iran will be subject to sanctions as a “state of sponsor of terrorism” under US law until there are conversations about Hezbollah’s role in the region. Israel, Lebanon and post-war Syria will all benefit from secure and peaceful borders. The trend in that direction may be fragile and precarious, but it is a trend nonetheless, and it depends, ultimately, on Israel and Iran. And it all begins with Syria.
Relief worker: Jabhat al-Nusra can cross Turkish border “anytime”
Fehim Tastekin reported that “while speculation continues about whether Turkey and Saudi Arabia will march into the Syrian war, Turkey is already fighting on two fronts without even entering Syria.”
“In the first [front], Turkey is launching heavy artillery fire at Syrian Democratic Forces advancing toward Azaz in northwestern Syria, while declaring that the objective is to stop the advances of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). On the second front, Turkey is allowing militants to cross into Syria, since the Syrian army cut off the Aleppo-Kilis corridor,” Tastekin wrote.
Tastekin went on to explain how Jabhat al-Nusra is embedded among many of the Salafi groups operating in these regions: “As for claims that Jabhat al-Nusra is not present at Azaz, we have to realize that since Jabhat al-Nusra was added to the UN terror list, it has not been flying its flag in areas close to the Turkish border. In addition to its concentration in rural Idlib, Jabhat al-Nusra also has a presence north of Aleppo, in the Turkmen regions of Latakia and Azaz. Jabhat al-Nusra has significant mobilization capacity in these areas. Everyone following the developments in the region knows that the group is active not only on the Syrian side of the border but also in Turkey’s Kilis and Hatay. According to a relief worker at Yayladag, ‘Nusra people are considered local residents. They can cross the border anytime.’ Jabhat al-Nusra generally operates with Ahrar al-Sham in these areas.”
Aleppo: Syrian armed groups in “all-out defense”
Mohammed al-Khatieb reported from Aleppo that the battles for control of Aleppo “are unlike any others. They are the fiercest and bloodiest yet, for regime forces are attacking rebels at the heart of their areas of control, spurring them into all-out defense.”
“Russian fighter jets never leave Aleppo's airspace, Khatieb wrote. “The importance of this advance lies in the fact that rebel forces have lost a strategic passage linking the northern Aleppo countryside with the rest of their zones of control. As a result, FSA fighters in the northern countryside are now isolated and surrounded by IS in the east, the regime forces and their allies in the south, and the Syrian Democratic Forces in the west.”
Mustafa al-Haj reported from Syria that “the Syrian regime and its allies have taken control over the entire area between the cities of Moadamiyet al-Sham and Daraya in Rif Dimashq governorate, following an extensive military campaign and heavy aerial bombardment that began in December 2015. The campaign aims to isolate the city of Daraya, which has already been besieged for three years, cutting off the only humanitarian supply line and weakening the opposition and civilians in preparation to storm the city. … It is noteworthy that in 2010, Daraya was home to 250,000 citizens, and today that number has dropped to 12,000, including both civilians and military forces. As the road to Moadamiyet al-Sham has been cut off, these people will face worsening conditions as the regime continues the heavy bombardment that prompted people to seek refuge underground.”
Saudi Northern Thunder
Bruce Riedel suggested that a high-profile military exercise may be a distraction for Saudi Arabia’s many domestic and regional challenges.
“Iran is no longer under damaging UN sanctions and is poised to pump more oil into an already glutted world market. IS [Islamic State] and al-Qaeda are operating inside the kingdom and have bases to the north and south of it. The Yemeni war has no end in sight. Rumors about infighting in the royal family are persistent. Northern Thunder [large-scale military training maneuvers] is helping project strength and international support, but the king really needs a face-saving answer to his Yemen conundrums,” wrote Riedel.

Assad Sets April 13 Parliamentary Elections
Naharnet/February 22/16/Syrian President Bashar Assad announced Monday that parliamentary elections are to be held on April 13, state news agency SANA reported, shortly after Washington and Moscow announced a ceasefire plan.Assad issued a decree which included seat allocations for each of the provinces in Syria, which last held parliamentary elections in May 2012. That was the first time that multiple parties -- not just the ruling Baath party -- were allowed to stand. Still, most of the 250 members of parliament that were elected for four-year terms were Baath members. At the time, Assad appointed then-agriculture minister Riad Hijab to be Syria's new prime minister. Hijab has since defected and now leads the main opposition grouping to Assad's regime from the Saudi capital Riyadh. More than 260,000 people have been killed since Syria's conflict erupted in March 2011, and millions have been forced to flee their homes. At a November meeting in Vienna, world powers agreed on an ambitious but yet to be implemented road map that foresees six months of intra-Syrian talks, leading to a new constitution and free elections within 18 months.

U.S., Russia: Syria Cessation of Hostilities Set for Saturday
Agence France Presse/ Naharnet/February 22/16/The United States and Russia on Monday announced plans for a landmark "cessation of hostilities" to take effect in war-torn Syria on February 27, excluding the main jihadist factions. The announcement drew a conditional acceptance from the main opposition grouping and came just one day after the deadliest jihadist attack in the nearly five-year war, with 134 people -- mostly civilians -- killed in a series of blasts near Damascus. In a joint statement, Washington and Moscow said the partial truce would begin at midnight Damascus time (2200 GMT Friday) and apply to parties to the conflict that have committed to the deal -- but not to the Islamic State (IS) group or al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaida affiliate. Parties wishing to be included in the agreement have until noon Damascus time on Friday to inform Moscow or Washington of their intention to honor the ceasefire. "If implemented and adhered to, this cessation will not only lead to a decline in violence, but also continue to expand the delivery of urgently needed humanitarian supplies to besieged areas and support a political transition to a government that is responsive to the desires of the Syrian people," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said. U.S. President Barack Obama and Russia's President Vladimir Putin discussed the deal in a phone call, the White House said. "This is a moment of opportunity and we are hopeful that all the parties will capitalize on it," White House press secretary Josh Earnest said. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon called the ceasefire a "long-awaited signal of hope", and urged all sides to abide by it. Putin said Moscow will do "whatever is necessary" to ensure that Damascus respects the agreement. "We are counting on the United States to do the same with its allies and the groups that it supports," he said in a televised address.
Opposition commitment conditional
There was no immediate reaction to the ceasefire from Damascus, but the main grouping of opposition factions said it "agreed to respond positively to international efforts to reach a truce deal".President Bashar Assad reacted by announcing parliamentary elections for April 13. The opposition High Negotiations Committee said its "commitment to the truce is conditional" on the lifting of sieges, release of prisoners, a halt to bombardment of civilians and the delivery of humanitarian aid. Once the cessation of hostilities takes hold, the United Nations will work to secure "access to as many places as possible in order to deliver humanitarian aid," U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. The 17-nation group backing Syria's peace process agreed at a meeting in Munich to implement a ceasefire within a week, but the truce never materialized. Ban said the truce announced Monday "contributes to creating an environment conducive for the resumption of political negotiations," which had been scheduled to resume this week. Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said Monday he was skeptical a Syria ceasefire would hold "while Daesh (IS) and al-Nusra Front (the Syrian al-Qaida affiliate) are not part of the process and the Russians say they will strike both organizations."A halt in hostilities in Syria would come after five years of brutal civil war that has killed more than 260,000 people and seen half the population displaced, including over four million overseas. In return, the groups would be assured of protection from Russian and U.S.-led coalition planes.The two powers are pursuing separate air wars in Syria, with Russia pounding rebel targets and the coalition focused on IS jihadists.
Deadliest jihadist attack
IS on Sunday claimed responsibility for two deadly attacks in regime-held areas, which a monitor said killed 134 people near the Sayyida Zeinab shrine south of Damascus and at least 64 in the al-Zahraa district of Homs. The bombings near the shrine marked the deadliest jihadist attack since Syria's conflict erupted in March 2011, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitoring group. Russia began air strikes in Syria last September against what it said were "terrorists", but has been accused of bombing non-jihadist rebel forces in support of Assad, a longtime ally. Iran has sent military advisers to Syria and Lebanon's Tehran-backed Hizbullah has deployed at least 6,000 militants to fight alongside Assad's forces. Tehran would have to be on board for any ceasefire to work, and Russian Deference Minister Sergei Shoigu made a surprise visit to Tehran on Sunday, saying he was delivering a "special message" from Putin to President Hassan Rouhani. The rise of IS, which has seized large parts of Syria and neighboring Iraq and become the preeminent global jihadist group, has focused attention on the need for a solution.The group has used its ultra-radical view of Islam to justify kidnapping minorities, including Assyrian Christians in northeast Syria. On Monday, IS released 42 Assyrians, the last remaining hostages from a wide-scale kidnapping in the northeast province of Hasakeh nearly one year ago, the Assyrian Monitor for Human Rights said. But IS also advanced against government forces in northern Aleppo province, cutting the only supply route linking the west of Aleppo with other government-held territory, the Observatory said. Fierce clashes were raging in the area, and if government forces are unable to recapture the road, it could slow their offensive.

At Least 13 Dead in Bombing North of Kabul
Agence France Presse/ Naharnet/February 22/16/At least 13 people, including nine civilians, were killed Monday in a suicide bombing targeting Afghan police which was claimed by Taliban insurgents in a remote area northwest of Kabul, authorities said. The bomber targeted a local police chief, injuring him on the eve of the latest round of quadrilateral talks to be held in Kabul in a bid to revive the peace process with the Taliban and end more than 14 years of war."There are 13 dead, nine civilians and four policemen, as well as 19 injured, 17 of whom are civilians," Parwan province police chief Mohammed Zaman Mamozai told AFP. Wahid Seddiqi, spokesman for the provincial governor, gave a higher toll of 14 dead, including six policemen and eight civilians, and said the bomber was riding a motorcycle. The Taliban claimed responsibility in a statement on Twitter through spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid. The attack occurred in Siagerd district, some 60 kilometers (around 40 miles) northwest of Kabul, a remote mountainous area where the Taliban are firmly entrenched. Seddiqi said the target was a commander with the Afghan Local Police (ALP), the security force set up by the United States in 2010 to help support the government in its fight against the insurgents.The ALP has been accused of human rights violations and is a regular Taliban target, along with other security forces in the country. The Taliban have intensified their insurgency since the end of NATO's combat mission in late 2014, multiplying bombings and attacks across Afghanistan. But the Afghan government, along with China, Pakistan and the U.S., have stepped up efforts to revive peace negotiations with the insurgents after an aborted bid last summer. A fourth round of talks to revive the negotiations will be held Tuesday in Kabul. The bombing comes as Afghan troops retreat from two districts in the southern province of Helmand, a move highlighting the challenge from Taliban fighters in the opium-producing region. "The Afghan army retreated from two army bases in Musa Qala and one base from Nawzad district" on Saturday, provincial governor Khan Rahimi told AFP Monday, leaving no troops anywhere in those districts. He said the soldiers had moved to other parts of Helmand, such as the heavily-contested districts of Lashkar Gah and Sangin, adding: "We have no concerns regarding this step but we have plans to ensure security in other vulnerable areas."But the decision was criticized by Abdul Majeed Akhundzada, deputy chief of the provincial council. "Retreating from Musa Qala looks to me like ignoring the deaths of Afghan security forces and the civilians," Akhundzada said.Helmand has seen some of the fiercest fighting in the Taliban's battle against local and foreign forces that began in 2001. Last October, U.S. President Barack Obama said that thousands of U.S. troops would remain in Afghanistan past 2016 in what is officially a training and support role, backpedalling on previous plans to reduce the force and acknowledging that Afghan forces are not ready to stand alone.The U.S. has deployed several hundred troops in Helmand in recent weeks. In August last year, Taliban insurgents briefly captured the town of Musa Qala before Afghan forces backed by NATO retook it.

Saudi Arabia exposes alleged spying cell that collaborated with Iranian intelligence
Jerusalem Post/February 22/16/A 32-person cell accused of espionage and ties to Iranian intelligence went on trial Sunday in Saudi Arabia, the London-based daily al-Hayat reported on Monday. According to al-Hayat, the indictment against the cell members accused them of forming a spying unit that transmitted secret information related to Saudi Arabia's military capabilities to Iranian intelligence, thus hurting the kingdom's national security. The trial for the accused, most of whom are Saudi citizens, is taking place at Riyadh's Special Criminal Court. The cell members are also accused of planning terror attacks against vital economic facilities in Saudi Arabia through high-level security coordination with Iran. As part of this coordination, some of the members allegedly met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The group is also accused of sending periodic reports about the kingdom to Iranian intelligence and holding meetings with its senior officials in Tehran and Beirut. According to the indictment, the cell members also attempted to recruit officials in Saudi government institutions and supported the protests and tumult that erupted in the predominantly Shi'ite eastern city of Qatif following the execution of the Shi'ite preacher, Sheik Nimr al-Nimr in December. According to the report, the spying cell’s members were charged with "betraying the state." The punishment for this crime, that Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr was also convicted of, is execution.

Iran's state-run media outlets renew Salman Rushdie death fatwa
Jerusalem Post/February 22/16/Iranian state media outlets have reissued a bounty worth hundreds-of-thousands of dollars for the head of a famous author decried as a blasphemer in the Islamic Republic, CNSNews.com news site reported Monday. Salman Rushdie, author of the controversial book The Satanic Verses, was the object of a fatwa issued in 1989 by Iran's then supreme leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who called for the writer's assassination for "blaspheming" Islam. Now dozens of Iranian state media outlets, including Fars news agency, have renewed the death edict, raising over $600,000 for the effort timed to coincide with the anniversary of the decree, according to the report. One year after the book's publication Khomeini issued the order for the author's death, saying that it was every Muslim's obligation to kill Rushdie and anyone associated with his publication, sending the writer into hiding under 24-hour police protection. “I call on all zealous Muslims to execute [Rushdie and his publishers] quickly, where they find them, so that no one will dare to insult the Islamic sanctity,” Khomeini said at the time. “Whoever is killed on this path will be regarded as a martyr, Allah-willing.” In 2009, on the fatwa's 20th anniversary, an official in Iran's Foreign Ministry said that the order was still valid, adding that only the cleric who announced the fatwa can nullify the order. Iran's supreme leader died four months after issuing the decree, but stated on his deathbed “even if Salman Rushdie repents and becomes the most pious man of all time, it is incumbent on every Muslim to employ everything he has got, his life and wealth, to send him to hell.” The Satanic Verses was the third novel penned by the British writer, and was partly inspired by the life of the prophet Mohammed. The title of the book refers to the satanic verses in the Koran, which allows for intercessory prayers to be made to three Pagan deities.

Syria shrine attack was deadliest in war with 120 dead: monitor
AFP/February 22/16/A string of bomb attacks on Sunday near a Shiite shrine south of Damascus killed 120 people, in the deadliest attack since Syria's war erupted in 2011, a monitor said.
Summary
A string of bomb attacks on Sunday near a Shiite shrine south of Damascus killed 120 people, in the deadliest attack since Syria's war erupted in 2011, a monitor said. At least 90 civilians were among those killed when suicide attacks claimed by the Islamic State jihadist group ripped through the area of the Sayyida Zeinab shrine, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. They...At least 90 civilians were among those killed when suicide attacks claimed by the Islamic State jihadist group ripped through the area of the Sayyida Zeinab shrine, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. They included displaced people from other parts of Syria, devastated by a nearly five-year conflict.The rest of the dead were from pro-regime security forces, according to Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman. The bloodiest attack before Sunday's explosions had been carried out by Al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate in May 2012 near Damascus and had killed 112 people. Sunday's blasts drew sharp condemnation from UN special envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura. An AFP reporter at the scene said the explosions struck about 400 metres (yards) from the revered Shiite shrine containing the grave of a granddaughter of the Prophet Mohammed. A January attack in the same area -- also claimed by IS -- killed 70 people.

ISIS frees Syrian Christians held since 2015 for ransom
The Associated Press, Beirut Monday, 22 February 2016/ISIS on Monday released the last of some 230 Assyrian Christians kidnapped a year ago in Syria after the receiving millions of dollars in ransom, Christian officials said.
Younan Talia, of the Assyrian Democratic Organization, told The Associated Press that about 40 remaining Christian captives were released early Monday and are on their way to the northeastern town of Tal Tamr. Younan said the release came after mediation led by a top Assyrian priest in northern Syria. The extremists captured the Assyrians, members of an ancient Christian sect, last February after overrunning several communities on the southern bank of the Khabur River in northeastern Hassakeh province. Kidnapping for ransom is a main source of income for the extremists. In November, ISIS said it killed a Norwegian and a Chinese captive after demanding ransom for their release two months earlier. Talia said ISIS demanded a ransom of $18 million for the Assyrian Christians. He said the figure was later lowered following negotiations. He said he did not know the final amount.
Osama Edward, director of the Stockholm-based Assyrian Human Rights Network, said 42 Christians, mostly young women and children, were released. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also said 42 were released, including at least 17 women. A Syrian Christian figure said the worldwide Assyrian community launched a campaign for the captives’ release shortly after they were abducted. He said a bank account was opened in the northern Iraqi city of Irbil and donations began to flow in from around the world. “We paid large amounts of money, millions of dollars, but not $18 million,” said the man, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the sensitive mediation. “We paid less than half the amount.”The official added that the fate of five Assyrians who went missing during the abductions was still unknown. ISIS attacked a cluster of villages along the Khabur River, sending thousands of people fleeing to safer areas and capturing the Assyrians over a period of three days. Over the next two days, the extremists picked up dozens more from 11 communities near Tal Tamr. The Hassakeh province, which borders Turkey and Iraq, has become the latest battleground in the fight against ISIS in Syria. It is predominantly Kurdish but also has Arabs, Assyrians and Armenians. On Friday, the predominantly Kurdish Syria Democratic Forces captured the ISIS stronghold of Shaddadeh in Hassakeh, where some of the kidnapped were once believed to have been held. Many Syrian Christians, who make up about 10 percent of Syria’s pre-war population of 23 million, left for Europe over the past 20 years, with the flight gathering speed since the country’s conflict began in March 2011.

US officials say Russia agrees to Syria truce
The Associated Press, Beirut Monday, 22 February 2016/U.S. officials say the United States and Russia have agreed on a plan that would create a cease-fire in Syria starting Saturday. The officials said Monday that the two sides have agreed on the terms and conditions for the "cessation of hostilities," as they call it. The truce excludes attacks on the ISIS group and the Nusra Front, al-Qaeda's local affiliate.An announcement is expected after Presidents Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin speak on the matter by telephone. Meanwhile, the leader of a Saudi-backed Syrian opposition alliance said that rebel factions have agreed "in principle" to an internationally mediated temporary truce. Riad Hijab, who heads the group known as the High Negotiations Committee, also called on Russia, Iran and the Syrian government to stop their attacks, lift blockades and release prisoners in Syria.
His statement on Monday did not elaborate on the terms of the truce reached.

Syria opposition meets as ceasefire efforts intensify
AFP, Riyadh Monday, 22 February 2016/Syria’s main opposition umbrella group was meeting in the Saudi capital on Monday as Washington and Moscow worked to secure a ceasefire. “There is a meeting,” Monzer Makhous, a spokesman for the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), told AFP in Riyadh. The meeting is expected to continue for two or three days to discuss developments since the group decided to attend peace talks in Geneva last month, Makhous said. He did not give further details. World powers, which have been pushing for a halt to Syria’s nearly five-year war, had hoped to see a truce take effect last Friday but have struggled to agree on the terms. They proposed the truce as part of a plan that also included expanded humanitarian access, in a bid to pave the way for the United Nations-led peace negotiations to resume. The talks collapsed earlier this month. They had been scheduled to resume this Thursday but U.N. Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura has acknowledged that date is no longer realistic. At the weekend, the opposition said it would agree to a truce only if regime backers Moscow and Tehran halted their fire. HNC chief Riad Hijab said any ceasefire must be reached “with international mediation and with guarantees obliging Russia, Iran and their sectarian militias and mercenaries to stop fighting”. Russia, an architect of the proposed ceasefire, is conducting air strikes in support of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which is also supported by Iran. The HNC was formed in December when the main Syrian opposition and rebel factions came together in Riyadh for an unprecedented bid at unity, after months of Saudi mediation efforts.

Militants cut off regime supply route to Aleppo
AFP, Beirut Monday, 22 February 2016/The ISIS group and other militants on Monday cut a vital supply route linking the west of Syria's second city Aleppo with other government-held territory, a monitoring group said. The road between Aleppo and the town of Khanasser to the southeast was the only way regime forces and civilians living in government-controlled neighborhoods of the city could travel to surrounding provinces. If government forces are unable to recapture the road, it could slow an offensive they launched in the countryside around Aleppo earlier this year. And it could worsen severe shortages of food and water for civilians. "Jihadists from the Caucasus and from (China's mainly Muslim region of) Xinjiang, as well as the jihadist group Jund al-Aqsa, cut the route from the south after a surprise attack," said Syrian Observatory for Human Rights chief Rami Abdel Rahman. "And fighters from IS cut off a different part of the route from the northern side at the same time," Abdel Rahman said. Thousands of foreign fighters have flocked to Syria over the past two years, many of them taking up arms with Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Nusra Front, ISIS or Jund al-Aqsa. It is not the first time that the government's supply route to Aleppo has been cut. Rebel cut it in 2013 and ISIS did so last year before being pushed back. The new setback comes with government troops on the offensive north and west of Aleppo, where rebel forces in the east of the city are almost completely surrounded.

ISIS bombs rock Syria as world powers seek truce
The Associated Press/AFP, Beirut Monday, 22 February 2016/Bombings claimed by ISIS in the Syrian cities of Damascus and Homs killed nearly 130 people on Sunday, highlighting the threat posed by the extremists as the country’s warring factions fight for the northern city of Aleppo and world powers chase an elusive cease-fire. The blasts came as Secretary of State John Kerry said that a “provisional agreement” has been reached on a cessation of hostilities that could begin in the next few days. But he acknowledged that it’s not finalized and all parties might not automatically comply. A string of bomb attacks on the area of the Sayyida Zeinab shrine killed 120 people, a monitor said. At least 90 civilians were among those killed. They included displaced people from other parts of Syria, devastated by a nearly five-year conflict. The rest of the dead were from pro-regime security forces, according to Observatory head Rami Abdel Rahman. A general view shows the site of a two bomb blasts in the government-controlled city of Homs, Syria, in this handout picture provided by SANA on February 21, 2016. (Reuters)
The neighborhood is home to one of Shiite Islam’s holiest shrines, which his heavily guarded by Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement and other Shiite militiamen from Iraq and elsewhere. Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV said the blasts were caused by a car bomb and two suicide bombers. The bombings in the central city of Homs killed at least 46 people and wounded dozens, according to Syria’s Foreign Ministry. The Observatory said 57 people, including 11 women, were killed by two car bombs set off in a mostly Alawite neighborhood. Syrian President Bashar Assad hails from the Alawite minority, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.Syrian TV footage from Homs showed streets filled with debris and mangled cars, and the charred body of a man being taken away on a stretcher. Footage from Sayyida Zeinab showing people running in narrow streets as others carried the wounded, including several children. “He’s alive, he’s alive,” a man shouted as he tried to administer CPR to an unconscious man. The TV later called on citizens to donate blood. ISIS claimed both attacks. The extremists are dug in on the outskirts of the two cities and have repeatedly targeted Shiites, who they view as apostates deserving of death.The deadly blasts may strengthen the government’s argument that it should press ahead with a major offensive in the north of the country, where troops backed by Russian airstrikes are close to sealing off Aleppo, once Syria’s largest city and commercial hub. Syrian insurgents, including Western-backed rebels, seized several neighborhoods in 2012.
The heavy fighting near Aleppo led to collapse of peace talks earlier this month. World powers later agreed on a “cessation of hostilities” to begin within a week, but the deadline passed with no letup in the fighting. Kerry has since reached out to his Russian counterpart, and during a visit to Jordan on Sunday, said they had struck a “provisional agreement” and must now reach out to the opposing sides on the ground. Russia is a key ally of Assad’s government, while the U.S. backs some of the rebels fighting to overthrow him. Kerry declined to go into the details of the agreement, saying it “is not yet done.”“The modalities for a cessation of hostilities are now being completed,” Kerry said, adding that it was “possible over the course of these next hours.”Assad meanwhile said his government was ready to take part in a truce as long as it is not used by militants to reinforce their positions. “We announced that we’re ready,” Assad told Spain’s El Pais newspaper in remarks published Sunday. “It’s about preventing other countries, especially Turkey, from sending more recruits, more terrorists, more armaments, or any kind of logistical support to those terrorists,” Assad said in English in the interview, which was also carried by state news agency SANA. Assad’s government refers to all the armed groups battling to overthrow him as terrorists. Turkey and Saudi Arabia are among the leading supporters of the insurgents. Assad said the Aleppo operation is not about “recapturing the city,” but “closing the roads between Turkey and between the terrorist groups.”The United States, Russia and other world powers agreed Feb. 12 on a deal calling for the ceasing of hostilities within a week, the delivery of urgently needed aid to besieged areas of Syria and a return to peace talks in Geneva. Aid shipments were allowed into several besieged areas last week. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said he welcomed the latest provisional agreement and called on all regional powers to use the “window of opportunity” to exert their influence on the warring parties. In northern Syria, meanwhile, the Syrian army captured 31 villages on Sunday that were controlled by ISIS, according to the pro-Syrian Lebanon-based Al-Mayadeen TV and Hezbollah’s Al-Manar station. Both outlets often have reporters embedded with Syrian troops.

Palestinians, Israelis urged to ease tensions
AFP, Amman Monday, 22 February 2016/U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas Sunday and discussed tensions between Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank and Jerusalem, the U.S. State Department said. Since October 1, Palestinian knife, gun and car-ramming attacks have taken the lives of 27 Israelis, an American and an Eritrean, according to an Agence France-Presse count. At the same time, 176 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, most while carrying out attacks but others during clashes and demonstrations. "The secretary continued to urge for calm and a decrease in violence, incitement and inflammatory rhetoric," State Department spokesman John Kirby said. Kerry was in Jordan where he also met King Abdullah II, a key US ally in the fight against the Islamic State group, in the southern port of Aqaba. A palace statement said the king stressed "the need for the international community and the United States first, to end the stalemate in the peace process between Palestinians and Israelis and to move towards a two-state solution". American diplomats said Kerry and Abdullah also discussed the Syrian conflict. Kirby said Kerry had stressed to Abbas Washington's commitment to seeking a sustainable two-state solution "and to working with all parties to that end". "He also reiterated our policy on the illegitimacy of Israeli settlements," Kirby said. U.S.-brokered peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians collapsed in April 2014 and the prospects of fresh dialogue have appeared increasingly remote. Some analysts say Palestinian frustration with Israeli occupation and settlement building in the West Bank, the complete lack of progress in peace efforts and their own fractured leadership have fed the unrest. On Thursday, the Palestinians welcomed an initiative put forward by France for an international Middle East peace conference, a proposal which Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed.

Egypt minister apologizes over police abuses
AFP, Cairo Monday, 22 February 2016/Egypt's interior minister apologized Monday for human rights abuses committed by police after a policeman killed a driver with his service weapon in Cairo last week. Magdy Abdel Ghaffar also said that authorities were exerting "huge efforts" to investigate last month's torture and murder of Italian student Giulio Regeni, which media in Italy suspect to have been the work of Egyptian security services. "We apologize to every citizen who has been insulted," the minister said at a joint press conference with Prime Minister Sharif Ismail broadcast live on state television. "We apologize for the acts of some policemen, we kiss the head of every citizen subjected to abuse or insult or any unkind act by policemen, " he said, in a rare apology by Egyptian authorities. Policeman Mustafa Mahmoud is alleged to have shot dead driver Mohamed Ismail with his police-issued firearm late Thursday in central Cairo after a row over the fare for a delivery.The killing triggered outrage on social media and dozens of people staged a protest outside Cairo police headquarters. A day after the shooting, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said he would ask parliament to amend the law to toughen sanctions for police abuses. Police abuse was a key factor that sparked the 18-day uprising that toppled longtime president Hosni Mubarak in 2011. Five years on, human rights groups are again denouncing the police force after a string of torture and deaths in police stations, arbitrary arrests and the disappearances of Sisi regime opponents. Abdel Ghaffar said the authorities were exerting "huge efforts to reveal (circumstances of) the mysterious" death of Regeni, a Cambridge University PhD student from Italy who disappeared on January 25 in Cairo. His body was found with signs of torture on February 3 in a ditch in a suburb of the Egyptian capital. Italian media has charged that Egyptian security services were involved in his death, a charge rejected by Cairo. Prime Minister Ismail said the image of the police needed to be "transformed" in the eyes of Egyptians. "There will be no laxity and we will not cover up any (violation)" by the police, he said, standing alongside Abdel Ghaffar. "This is a commitment from the police, a firm commitment. If there is any violation from some individuals, they will be held accountable." Over the past year, several policeman have been detained for violence against prisoners and some have been sentenced to jail terms.

Turkish schoolgirl ‘commits suicide after teacher’s assault’
AFP, Istanbul Monday, 22 February 2016/A Turkish schoolgirl committed suicide after allegedly being sexually assaulted by one of her teachers, reports said Monday, raising new concerns about crimes against women in the country. The 18-year-old, identified as Cansel Buse K., tried to take her own life last week by shooting herself in the head with the service weapon belonging to her father, a policeman, the Dogan news agency reported. After finding her badly wounded in a pool of blood, the emergency services took her to hospital where she died. Investigators believe her suicide was brought on after she was sexually abused by a married mathematics teacher at her school in the Melikgazi district of the Kayseri region in central Turkey, Dogan said. The teacher was detained over the weekend and placed under arrest pending trial, and the school leadership has been suspended for negligence.
The case has caused huge resonance in Turkey with the hashtag #canselicinsusma -- “don’t stay quiet about Cansel” -- the top trending topic on Twitter nationally on Monday. Kayseri governor Orhan Duzgun confirmed the teacher had been arrested following an examination of phone records and forensic tests.The Hurriyet daily said the alleged assault took place two days before the girl’s suicide, with her family accusing the school of trying to cover-up the issue after she made a complaint. The Turkish authorities acknowledge there is a grave problem of violence against women -- often involving wives killed by their husbands -- but activists say nowhere near enough action has been taken. According to the Platform to Stop Violence Against Women, 289 women were murdered in Turkey in 2015 alone.

Turkish army says 14 PKK militants killed in southeast Turkey
Reuters, Istanbul Monday, 22 February 2016/Turkey's military said on Monday it had killed 14 Kurdish militants during its offensive against the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in the southeast of the country. Four PKK militants were killed on Sunday in the Sur district of the mainly Kurdish region's largest city Diyarbakir, much of which has been under a round-the-clock police curfew since early December, the army said in a statement. Ten others were killed on Sunday in the Idil district of Sirnak province, neighboring Syria, it said. A round-the-clock curfew was imposed in some parts of Idil last week as it become a new focus for the security operations. Violence has surged across southeast Turkey following the breakdown of a two-year ceasefire between Turkish security forces and the PKK last July. The PKK, which says it is fighting for autonomy for Turkey's large ethnic Kurdish minority, has sealed off entire districts of some towns and cities in the southeast, prompting the security forces to step up their operations. Rights groups and locals have voiced growing concern about the civilian death toll in the security operations since December. The pro-Kurdish HDP party puts the toll at nearly 160. In its statement, the army also said the bodies of five PKK militants, thought to have been killed earlier, had been found during search operations in Cizre, a border town that was the focus of military operations for weeks. Many home-made explosives, hand grenades, rifles and large amount of ammunition were also seized during the search. The PKK, considered a terrorist group by Turkey, the United States and the European Union, launched its separatist armed rebellion against the Turkish state more than three decades ago and more than 40,000 people have been killed in the conflict.

Yemen army commander shot dead in Aden
AFP, Aden Monday, 22 February 2016/A gunman killed a senior Yemeni army officer in Aden on Monday, as violence in the southern port city which is the headquarters of the Saudi-backed government showed no let-up, military sources said. The gunman, who was on the back of a motorcycle, killed General Abedrabbo Hussein as he was leaving his home in the Sheikh Othman district of the city, the sources said. Hussein was commander of the 15th Infantry Brigade which operates in Abyan province, west of Aden, where Al-Qaeda has seized several large towns in recent weeks. President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi's internationally recognized government declared Aden the country's provisional capital last March, after Shiite Houthi rebels and their allies drove it out of Sanaa and much of northern Yemen.
Al-Qaeda and the ISIS group have stepped up attacks in the city despite the efforts of the government and its backers in a Saudi-led coalition to secure it.

Palestinians: Kerry and the Game of Obfuscation
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/February 22, 2016
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7480/palestinians-john-kerry
This "intifada" is simply a further phase in a larger plan to destroy Israel. When the plan began officially, with the establishment of the PLO in 1964, there were no "settlements" -- not until after the June 1967 War -- so what exactly were the Palestinians planning to "liberate"?
The current conflict is not about "defending" any mosque from being contaminated by the "filthy feet" of Jews: it is about seeing Israel forced to its knees. Abbas and others seek to reap delicious political fruits from this "intifada."
Here is a novel idea: Kerry could put pressure on the Palestinian and Jordanian leadership to cease anti-Israeli incitement and indoctrination. Now that would be pressure well applied.
Abbas is expected to become a partner in the fight against ISIS and radical Islamist groups. All well and good. Why then is he not expected to stop cheering on and glorifying young Palestinians who attack Jewish Israelis?
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is back in town. This time he is meeting with Jordanian and Palestinian leaders about "ongoing security issues in the region and continued tensions between Israel and the Palestinians."
For those not involved in political newspeak, here is a translation:
"Ongoing security issues" = the Islamic State terror group (ISIS).
"Tensions between Israel and the Palestinians" = the ongoing wave of Palestinian stabbing, car-ramming and shooting attacks that began in October 2015.
Jordan and the Palestinian Authority (PA) fighting ISIS? Now that's an idea! Jordanian King Abdullah and PA President Mahmoud Abbas ending "tensions" between Israel and the Palestinians? Let's think about that.
Kerry comes back, but never calls a spade a spade. The "tensions" to which he deceptively alludes are knifings and car-rammings. And what is the biggest spade that Kerry avoids calling by its name? The new generation of Palestinians brainwashed to believe that Israel can be defeated with knives and car-attacks.
This "intifada" is simply a further phase in a larger plan to humiliate and destroy Israel. This plan began officially, with the establishment of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), in May 1964. At that time there were no "settlements" -- not until after the June 1967 War -- so what exactly were the Palestinians planning to "liberate"?
The plan continued in 1974, at the twelfth session of the Palestinian National Council in Cairo, with the 10-point "Phased Plan" (see Appendix below for full text of the Phased Plan). Article 2 called for "armed struggle" (terrorism) to establish "an independent combatant national authority" that is "liberated" from Israeli rule.
Contrary to Palestinian leaders' pap, the current conflict is not about "defending" any mosque from being contaminated by the "filthy feet" of Jews: it is about seeing Israel forced to its knees. Abbas and others seek to reap delicious political fruits from this "intifada."
That is why, in his meeting with Kerry, Abbas made it clear that he intends to pursue unilateral moves to impose a solution on Israel, with the help of the international community.
Abbas also told Kerry that he intends to continue with his efforts to seek a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israel over "settlement construction."
Never mind that on Palestinian maps, all of Israel is regarded as one big "settlement."
Palestinian Authority leaders, official television, schools and media outlets often display maps showing Palestine stretching from the River Jordan to the Mediterranean Sea. The maps do not show the existence of Israel.
But back to Kerry. His "tensions" imply two sides engaged in some kind of a dispute that has aggravated a situation and strained relations between them, instead of what it really is: Palestinians openly trying to supplant Israelis -- the entire state.
So the game of obfuscation continues. No doubt, we will witness more pressure on Israel to make concessions that will supposedly ease the "tensions."
Kerry and his friends either do not "get it" or do not want to "get it." Palestinians are waging an out-and-out war against Israel with the goal of making Israelis suffer to a point at which they will beg their leaders to capitulate. In the Palestinian view, such behavior pays off royally.
It is a Palestinian commonplace that the two previous uprisings -- in 1987 and 2000 -- brought major achievements to the Palestinians.
The first "intifada" led to Israel's recognition of the PLO as the "sole legitimate representative of the Palestinians" -- a move that was followed by the signing of the Oslo Accords and the creation of the Palestinian Authority.
The second "intifada," the Palestinians argue, led to Israel's full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in the summer of 2005.
And so we arrive at the newest wave of attacks. As the saying goes: Step-by-step.
Kerry would like to see an end to the Palestinian attacks on Israeli Jews. The only problem is that his vacuous rhetoric prevents him from having a snowball's chance in a Middle Eastern summer from attaining that goal.
Let us also not underestimate Palestinian Authority rejectionism. On the eve of the Kerry-Abbas meeting, Palestinian Authority officials were quoted as saying that they did not expect anything positive to come out of the talks "because the U.S. remains biased in favor of Israel."
As always, the Palestinian stance is, "My way or the highway."
Moreover, Kerry is dreaming if he thinks that President Mahmoud Abbas or King Abdullah are able to stop the attacks on Israelis. Neither has the mandate or the credibility to do so. In any case, they and their media outlets are too busy with their anti-Israeli ranting to do much on that score.
Thus far, not a word has been uttered by either of the two Arab leaders that could be even vaguely interpreted by their people as "stop killing Israelis." In the Palestinian Looking Glass, it is Israel that is responsible for the deadly attacks. After all, claims that are untrue about Israelis "storming and desecrating the Al-Aqsa Mosque and other Islamic holy sites" are provocative, to say the least.
Here is a novel idea: Kerry could put pressure on the Palestinian and Jordanian leadership to cease anti-Israeli incitement and indoctrination. Now that would be pressure well applied. And it does not even require funding.
President Abbas is expected to become a partner in the fight against ISIS and radical Islamist groups. All well and good. Why then is he not expected to stop cheering on and glorifying young Palestinians who attack Jewish Israelis?
When Kerry and his crew finally wake up to the fact that it is precisely this incitement that is driving Palestinians into the open arms of ISIS, Hamas and other terror groups, perhaps, finally, we will be able to hope for "easing tensions in the region."
Meanwhile, Kerry is back blathering about peace in the Middle East. Unfortunately, he seems incapable of calling a spade a spade -- especially when that spade's name is Palestinian prevarication.
**Khaled Abu Toameh, an award-winning journalist, is based in Jerusale
Appendix
THE PLO'S PHASED PLAN
Political Programme
Adopted at the 12th Session of the Palestinian National Council Cairo, June 9, 1974
Text of the Phased Plan resolution:
The Palestinian National Council:
On the basis of the Palestinian National Charter and the Political Programme drawn up at the eleventh session, held from January 6-12, 1973; and from its belief that it is impossible for a permanent and just peace to be established in the area unless our Palestinian people recover all their national rights and, first and foremost, their rights to return and to self-determination on the whole of the soil of their homeland; and in the light of a study of the new political circumstances that have come into existence in the period between the Council's last and present sessions, resolves the following:
To reaffirm the Palestine Liberation Organization's previous attitude to Resolution 242, which obliterates the national right of our people and deals with the cause of our people as a problem of refugees. The Council therefore refuses to have anything to do with this resolution at any level, Arab or international, including the Geneva Conference.
The Liberation Organization will employ all means, and first and foremost armed struggle, to liberate Palestinian territory and to establish the independent combatant national authority for the people over every part of Palestinian territory that is liberated. This will require further changes being effected in the balance of power in favour of our people and their struggle.
The Liberation Organization will struggle against any proposal for a Palestinian entity the price of which is recognition, peace, secure frontiers, renunciation of national rights and the deprival of our people of their right to return and their right to self-determination on the soil of their homeland.
Any step taken towards liberation is a step towards the realization of the Liberation Organization's strategy of establishing the democratic Palestinian state specified in the resolutions of previous Palestinian National Councils.
Struggle along with the Jordanian national forces to establish a Jordanian-Palestinian national front whose aim will be to set up in Jordan a democratic national authority in close contact with the Palestinian entity that is established through the struggle.
The Liberation Organization will struggle to establish unity in struggle between the two peoples and between all the forces of the Arab liberation movement that are in agreement on this programme.
In the light of this programme, the Liberation Organization will struggle to strengthen national unity and to raise it to the level where it will be able to perform its national duties and tasks.
Once it is established, the Palestinian national authority will strive to achieve a union of the confrontation countries, with the aim of completing the liberation of all Palestinian territory, and as a step along the road to comprehensive Arab unity.
The Liberation Organization will strive to strengthen its solidarity with the socialist countries, and with forces of liberation and progress throughout the world, with the aim of frustration all the schemes of Zionism, reaction and imperialism.
In light of this programme, the leadership of the revolution will determine the tactics which will serve and make possible the realization of these objectives.
The Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization will make every effort to implement this programme, and should a situation arise affecting the destiny and the future of the Palestinian people, the National Assembly will be convened in extraordinary session

What to Expect in Iran
Jagdish N. Singh/ Gatestone Institute/February 22, 2016
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7459/iran-relations
"The destruction of Israel is non-negotiable." — Mohammad Neza Naghdi, Commander of Iran's Basij paramilitary force.
Sanctions relief will mainly benefit Ayatollah Khamenei and members of the Revolutionary Guards: they control up to one-third of Iran's economy.
Part of the Iranian regime's grand strategy is to inflict "death to America" and replace it with its own radical version of Islamic governance. Ayatollah Khamenei himself called for America's destruction amid nuclear negotiations.
Officials also believe Iran is indirectly funding the Islamic State (IS) in the Sinai. "Suitcases of cash" are sent directly to Hamas officials in the Gaza Strip; part of the money is then transferred to IS.
Iran now poses an even greater threat. If democracies today continue their present policies towards Iran, it will only embolden Iran's regime to continue its quest to obtain nuclear weapons as well as its terrorism and human rights violations.
Humanity seldom seems to learn its lessons. The governments of the world's leading democracies appear to be suffering from this predicament in their nuclear dealings with the Islamic Republic of Iran. To avoid catastrophe, democracies need quickly to correct their course.
One of the fatal blunders of Western democracies is their repeated commitment to appeasing and delaying action against aggressive regimes. Between the two World Wars, despite plenty of evidence of the widely-declared global racist agenda of Germany's Adolf Hitler, democratic powers waited to take action until it was too late. Hitler was able to carry out a genocide that continues to haunt many nations.
Today, Western democratic governments, with their Eastern counterparts such as India, seem on a similar course in dealing with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The domestic and international agenda of the Khomeinist government is publicly documented. Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, part of the regime's open grand strategy is to inflict "death to America," the leader of the free world, and replace it with its own radical version of Islamic governance. Under the current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Iran has been gaining influence across the Middle East, Latin America, the Caribbean and South Asia. Despite nuclear talks with the West, Iran's goal of "death to America" remains. The Ayatollah himself even called for America's destruction amid nuclear negotiations.
Currently, Iran is a major player in aiding the autocratic regime of Basher al-Assad in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza and the Islamic State (IS) in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.
To advance its imperial agenda, Iran has proceeded to develop its conventional and nuclear ballistic missile program. According to Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, Iran has "one of the largest inventories of ballistic missiles in the Middle East."
In line with Iran's missile development program, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Navy Rear Commander, Ali Fadavi, announced: "Based on the fifth five-year plan, we should materialize our objective of mass-producing military speedboats with the speed of 80 knots per hour... and are equipped with missiles with a range of 100km; the vessels no one can catch."
Aside from its military aspirations, since the fall of the Shah in 1979, successive Iranian governments have voiced their plans to annihilate the State of Israel, the only pluralist democracy in the Middle East, and an effective military deterrent to Iran's designs in the region.
Hostile messages have been pouring forth from Iran. Mohammad Neza Naghdi, Commander of the Basij paramilitary force, stated in clear terms in April 2015, that, "The destruction of Israel is non-negotiable."
Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, a former IRGC commander and a top military aide to Khamenei, warned in May 2015, that "More than 80,000 missiles are ready to rain down on Tel Aviv and Haifa."
As late as November, Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei himself tweeted, "This barbaric, wolflike & infanticidal regime of #Israel which spares no crime has no cure but to be annihilated."
Bewilderingly, Western democracies have chosen to overlook Iran's speeches and actions. They chose instead to appease the regime. Last July, despite genuinely serious reservations expressed by international strategic and military experts (including retired American military officers), the United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany – the four democracies in the P5+1 -- concluded a nuclear deal with themselves that they proposed to Iran. Iran so far has not signed the deal, and apparently even if it did, according to the U.S. Department of State, the deal would not be legally binding.
Tehran will greatly benefit financially from the terms of the nuclear agreement in the months to come. Under the administration of President Barack Obama, nuclear sanctions against Iran have been lifted. To advance the deal and make it more appealing to Iran, the president has also agreed to pay Iran a $1.7 billion settlement for $400 million in "frozen" assets held in the United States since 1981.
The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), "the electronic bloodstream of the global financial system," had disconnected 15 Iranian banks from its system in 2012. after coming under pressure from both the United States and the European Union at the height of efforts to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions. Today, SWIFT is ready to let those banned banks, including the Central Bank of Iran, use its system once again. Iran now has an even greater ability to fund its terrorist proxies around the world.
European political and business leaders have been rushing to Tehran to sign new agreements. On January 28, in Paris, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani and France's President Francois Hollande signed major business deals, including a joint venture between car-makers PSA Peugeot Citroen and Iran's Khodro. Iran is in the process of buying 118 Airbus passenger planes to update its aging fleet. The construction group Bouygues and the French airport operator ADP are now set to build an extension for Tehran's airport, while Vinci, another construction firm, has been commissioned to design, build and operate new terminals for the Mashhad and Isfahan airports. The French oil company Total has agreed to buy Iranian crude oil, and agreements in shipping, health, agriculture and water provision have also been signed.
Democratic India is also cultivating relations with Iran. In a meeting in May, India's Minister of Road Transport and Highways, Nitin Gadkari, and Iranian Transport and Urban Development Minister, Abbas Ahmad Akhoundi signed a Memorandum of Understanding on India's participation in the development of the Chabahar Port in Iran.
The Chabahar project will impart strategic leverage to India and its access to Afghanistan and energy-rich Central Asia by bypassing Pakistan. The distance between the Chabahar Port and Gujarat - India's westernmost state, located near the Persian Gulf, is less than the distance between Delhi and Mumbai. Transit times are estimated to be reduced by a third. Indian firms have already agreed to lease two existing berths at the port and operate them as container and multi-purpose cargo terminals.
The Chabahar project, New Delhi calculates, will be highly beneficial. As India has invested over $2 billion in Afghanistan, the Indian government plans to link the Chabahar port with the Zaranj-Delaram road it built in Afghanistan, thereby opening alternative routes to Afghanistan and enhancing access to regional and global markets.
Russia and China, permanent members of the UN Security Council, are also strengthening their cooperation with Iran. Both Russia and China adopted a policy of ambivalence towards Iran and saw to it that sanctions imposed by the West were not too tough. They also repeatedly blocked attempts at sanctioning Iran's ally, the current Syrian regime, out of concern over financial ties in the region.
China is also capitalizing on the lifting of sanctions against Iran. Chinese President Xi Jinping rushed to Iran after the so-called nuclear agreement to discuss a 25-year strategic cooperation plan. In a landmark deal worth up to $600 billion, Xi committed to increase trade between the two nations during the next decade. Beijing and Tehran also agreed to enhance security cooperation through intelligence-sharing, counter-terror measures, military exchanges and coordination. Incidentally, despite international sanctions, China-Iran trade increased from $3 billion in 2001 to more than $50 billion in 2014.
Given its fanatical and sectarian ideological agenda, Iran is likely to use the new funds to boost its armament program and ongoing clandestine terror acts. Sanctions relief will mainly benefit Khamenei and members of the IRGC: they control up to one-third of Iran's economy.
Iran now poses an even greater threat to the entire civilized world. The pattern of Tehran's behavior shows the government can never be trusted on any promises it makes not to advance its nuclear weapons program. Khamenei has made an open declaration that Tehran will not allow effective inspections of its military sites or interviews with its nuclear scientists.
The links of the IRGC's Qods Force with Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis and other terror militias pose a major threat to peace and stability in the Middle East.
Hezbollah's networks have expanded over the years, infiltrating Latin America and the Caribbean through Shiite cultural centers in the region. According to an official Argentine report, Tehran has established its terrorist, intelligence and operational networks throughout Latin America as far back as the 1980s. Iran's intelligence activities in the region are being conducted directly by Iranian officials or through its proxy, Hezbollah. Criminal activity may already be underway in Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago. Iran's involvement in the cocaine trade has bolstered the regimes regional access and strengthened ties with its allies in Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia and elsewhere.
According to senior Western intelligence officials, the IRGC has transferred tens of millions of dollars to Hamas to be used for weapons, military equipment and training, and that Iran also delivers arms and funds to Hamas through the Red Sea and the Sinai. Officials also believe Iran is indirectly funding the Islamic State (IS) in the Sinai. "Suitcases of cash" are sent directly to Hamas officials in the Gaza Strip; part of the money is then transferred to IS.
Tehran's links with Hamas and IS are part of a grander strategy of using proxy forces to gain hegemony over the Middle East and undermining American allies such as Egypt and Israel. In Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, Iran seeks to preserve its influence. By fighting IS, Iran strengthens existing pro-Iran regimes and maintains its relevance in the region.
While Iran does support IS indirectly in the Sinai, the government's goal is to weaken the current Egyptian regime and the Sunni Arab alliance between Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. It has no problem with IS gaining strength in the Sinai right now. If IS does gain more power in the Sinai, Iran can use it to impose its own agenda in the future. Tehran evidently wants to use IS victories against Sunni states as an opportunity to take over.
Iran also supports the Gaza-based terror group al-Sabireen ["The Patient Ones"], established in the wake of previous tensions between Iran, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The group has about 400 followers and its emblem is identical to that of Hezbollah. Each member receives a monthly salary of $250-$300, while senior members receive at least $700. Annually, the terror group receives a budget of $10 million from Iran, smuggled in suitcases through tunnels along the border with Egypt. Potential members are wooed by al-Sabireen through familiar channels of philanthropy and education. The group's publications refer to the United States as "the source of superpower terrorism," and its slogan is, "The road to the liberation of Palestinian goes through Karbala" -- a Shiite holy city in Iraq.
Al-Sabireen has extended its operations from the Gaza Strip to the West Bank and Jerusalem with Iran's backing. Hisham Salim, the founder of al-Sabireen, admitted that his group is directly financed by Iran. "We have an armed branch whose goal is to wage war on the Israeli occupation everywhere," Salim said. "Within this framework we have members in the West Bank and Jerusalem."
The Obama administration has forged ahead with its Iran policies despite knowing the regime's support of global terrorism. U.S. President Barack Obama himself spoke about Iran's terror activities in a press conference last year. "Now, we'll still have problems with Iran's sponsorship of terrorism; its funding of proxies like Hezbollah that threaten Israel and threaten the region; the destabilizing activities that they're engaging in, including place like Yemen," he said, adding that the nuclear "deal is not contingent on Iran changing its behavior. Its not contingent on Iran suddenly operating like a liberal democracy."
History urges those living in democracies today to rein in their governments and correct their fatal Iran policies. The world cannot afford to overlook the damage of these governments. If democracies today continue their present policies towards Iran, it will only embolden Iran's regime to continue its quest to obtain nuclear weapons as well as its terrorism and human rights violations.
**Jagdish N. Singh is a leading journalist based in New Delhi, India.
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7459/iran-relations

Obama’s Iranian ‘moderates’ are anything but
Amir Taheri/New York Post/February 21, 2016
http://nypost.com/2016/02/21/obamas-iranian-moderates-are-anything-but/
When it runs out of plausible excuses for its appeasement-plus policy on Iran, the Obama administration advances one argument as final line of defense: showing goodwill toward the Islamic Republic would help “moderates” secure a greater share of power in Tehran with the hope of an eventual change of behavior by the ruling mullahs.
Wishful thinking or not, a test of that theory is coming on Friday as the Islamic Republic holds elections for the Islamic Majlis, the 290-seat ersatz parliament, and the Assembly of Experts, a body of 88 mullahs supposed to keep an eye on the “Supreme Guide.”
But who are the “moderates” that Obama hopes to promote Tehran?
Rafsanjani faction’s slogan is: Yes to capitalism, no to democracy!
A trio of mullahs consisting of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, former Security Minister Dorri Najafabadi and current President Hassan Rouhani forms the core of the faction that Obama hopes would sail to victory next week.
The triumvirate has a history of masquerading as moderates.
In 1985-86 they even persuaded the Reagan administration that they could help close the chapter of revolution in Iran, leading Iran back to normality. All three were involved in secret negotiations that led to the Irangate scandals. Needless to say, none of them would qualify as moderate by any stretch of imagination, having been actively involved in the Khomeinist regime’s vilest actions, including hostage-takings and mass executions.
The faction has always been fascinated by the so-called “Chinese Model” developed by Deng Xiaoping and his successors in the 1980s and 1990s, transforming China from a mainly poor agrarian nation into a major industrial power. The Chinese Model is based on the belief that while importing Western-style democracy is both painful and potentially dangerous for nations that live in patriarchal, not to say despotic, systems, adopting capitalism is both relatively easy and highly profitable. Rafsanjani faction’s slogan is: Yes to capitalism, no to democracy!
Modal Trigger
The faction is fascinated by the so-called “Chinese Model” developed by Deng Xiaoping (above in 1992) —which is based on the belief that importing Western-style democracy is painful, but adopting capitalism is relativity easy.Photo: Getty Images
Rafsanjani and his hand-picked successor Khatami governed for 16 years, but never offered a single political reform let alone implementing any. Their successor Rouhani has had more than two years to show that he follows the same path. During his presidency Iran has become world leader in the number of executions and political prisoners.
Nevertheless, the faction’s policy of trying to open Iran to trade, especially with Western powers, could, if really implemented, give the Iranian economy a much needed boost.
It would not, however, extend the Iranian people’s freedoms.

Meet the Shin Bet’s new director
Alex Fishman/Ynetnews/February 22/16
Nadav Argaman has taken out many high-value targets in his career. As the head of the Shin Bet’s operational unit he was responsible for the assassination of one of the top Gaza targets, ‘the Engineer’ Yahya Ayyash, and as the deputy director, he led the operation to assassinate Hamas military chief Ahmed Jabari. This is how the former kibbutz member from the Beit She’an Valley made his way to the top of the secret agency’s pyramid.
On the wall of the deputy Shin Bet head’s office there’s one picture: An enlarged ID card with the photo of an elderly man, sporting a white beard. What does this man have to do with Nadav Argaman, who will take on the role of the head of the Shin Bet in May? The answer is known to only a handful of confidants in the organization. The elegant old man and Nadav Argaman are one and the same. This is the same man, in one of his many lives as an operative in the Shin Bet’s Operations Division, undercover, many years ago.
IDF generals hang photos of themselves from their enlistment day on their office walls. To say: Look where I started and look where I am today. For senior operatives in the Shin Bet, revealing mementos from covert missions early in their career is not just a kind of nostalgia; it’s also a kind of statement: I can’t tell you more than this.
Indeed, very little can be written about Argaman’s operational career. He did most of his service in what might not be the biggest division, but is the most prestigious: The Operations Division. From his first day in the Shin Bet, he served in the division’s operations unit, the one that produces the fighters, the field troops, the ones dubbed in professional lingo: “The Operators.”
Nadav Argaman, ex-head of the Shin Bet’s Operations Division
Those who served under his command in the Shin Bet remember him as a strict and demanding manager who did not spare his rod. But there’s also Nadav Argaman the private person, who has been blessed with quite a sense of humor, which he shares with a small group of very close friends, some childhood friends from his days at the kibbutz’s children’s society (first to sixth grade – ed.).
Argaman’s childhood days belong to a different Israel, the kind left only in songs. He grew up in Kibbutz Hamadia in the Beit She’an Valley, in the late 1960s. It was a frontier town in the midst of the War of Attrition against Fatah and the Jordanian army. Katyusha rockets were fired in his direction every day. Shells from the Jordanian army’s Long Tom cannons landed in the nearby fields. A terror cell infiltrated the kibbutz and murdered one of its members. And the children stood looking out the window in the dark, watching the tracer bullet fire. There were rifle pits all over the kibbutz. For three years, the children slept in the shelters. Amiram Argaman, Nadav’s father, who was seriously wounded in the Mishmar HaYarden battles during the War of Independence, was at the time the head of security in the area.
During the Yom Kippur War, when their fathers were called for duty, Nadav and his classmates stopped going to school in order to work the fields. It was the habitat for an entire generation that saw its future in security. Kibbutz Hamadia was a hotbed that grew fighters in elite units, who encouraged the younger generation to follow in their footsteps. In Nadav Argaman’s age group, at least five friends joined the IDF’s Special Forces unit Sayeret Matkal, with him among them. He finished his military service in the Paratrooper’s intelligence and reconnaissance unit, and then returned to the fields of the kibbutz. One of his father’s defense friends – probably a division head in the Shin Bet of those days – pulled him out of the kibbutz to work for the agency. And so, in 1983, Nadav informed the kibbutz that he was leaving for eight years to serve in the Shin Bet.
The unit that never was
In those years, before the Bus 300 affair (when two Shin Bet members executed two Palestinian hijackers after having captured them -ed.) and the intifadas, the Shin Bet was a very clandestine organization. Nobody talked about it. The Operations Division was a small department with several dozens of members that served all of the Shin Bet’s regional commands and departments: From the Arab sector to intercepting and arresting spies. Argaman left the kibbutz and “disappeared” for almost four years, during which he studied in one of the Shin Bet’s basic training tracks. The basic courses in the Operations Division can last somewhere between six months and three years, and include any and all sorts of training: Driver, undercover agent, medic, bomb disposal expert, fighter, airborne fighter, undercover employee, airborne lookout and other roles we know from action movies.
In 1984 the Shin Bet – and particularly the Operations Division – was badly shaken by the serious blow from the Bus 300 affair. It’s doubtful the affair had a direct impact on new agent Nadav Argaman’s career, but there’s no doubt it taught him a lot about where the lines of right and wrong are drawn, and what is the Shin Bet’s place in Israeli society. In his first four years of service, during which he was trained and made a fighter, the Shin Bet also operated alongside the IDF in Lebanon. During that time, the term “thwarting attacks” was introduced to the Operations Division. This approach resulted in a series of achievements in the fight against Palestinian terror organizations in Lebanon and the West Bank, among other things.
Argaman stood out, got promoted, and in 1987 he was appointed the head of a tactical department in the Operations Division. He became the commander of a team of fighters, a “cornerstone” in the division’s operations. In most cases, the teams he commanded came together organically. At times, a team like that was put together for a complex mission requiring different skill sets. Argaman and other tactical department heads entered the first intifada with the Operations Division’s main task being to capture wanted men. The intifada started with a list of over 400 wanted men. In two years, that number dropped to less than 20. At the time, the Shin Bet’s unavoidable cooperation with the IDF also exposed the organization to the public more than ever before.
In 1991, Argaman was promoted to deputy head of the operations unit in the Operations Division, a role both managerial and operational in nature, where he stayed for three years. These were the days of the Oslo Accords, when the Shin Bet was preparing to leave Gaza and Jericho. The agency began to see the need to prepare an infrastructure of intelligence gathering from afar, when there’s no physical Israeli presence on the ground. The Operations Division – with its infiltration and technological capabilities – played a key role in this.
In 1994, Argaman was made the head of the operations unit. This is the top of the pyramid for fighters, which is what he’s been so far. He ran the operations unit, planned its missions, and at times commanded them himself. At his disposal were some measures from the forefront of the intelligence world’s technological capabilities. His missions varied from monitoring Jewish or Arab terrorists, to thwarting their attacks. During Argaman’s time in this role, “the Engineer” Yahya Ayyash was assassinated in Gaza.
In 1998 – after 15 years in the Shin Bet, four of which as the head of the operations unit and the deputy head of the division – he took a break to pursue academic studies, doing both his BA and MA at the National Security College. At the time, the Shin Bet was preparing for the possibility of further disengagement from the territories.
In 2000, Argaman was asked by then-Shin Bet head Avi Dichter to return to the agency in order to head a new secret unit that was supposed to provide an original answer to the Shin Bet’s need to infiltrate even deeper into the field. This was supposed to be a great, daring idea, but the unit never got off the ground, and was shut down.
The second intifada broke out then, and Argaman returned to his role as the deputy head of the Operations Division for two years. One of the achievements to his credit from that time is the establishment of the “prevention groups” in the Operations Division, which operate on several fighting fronts. The need to simultaneously conduct a growing number of operational prevention missions, at times at the drop of a hat, necessitated a different kind of operational approach.
That is why the Shin Bet, in cooperation with the IDF, established the ” warfare groups” (or “prevention groups”) which bring together – into one operations room – the military’s electronic intelligence people, the Shin Bet’s operations personnel and its intelligence agents, and the IDF and Air Force’s operations personnel. Every such operations room collected data coming from different sources, which allows “incriminating” targets and destroying them in large numbers and in very short time. This approach has become increasingly more advanced, and has been serving the Shin Bet and the IDF in all of their operations since.
The secret quartet
The large number of suicide bombers in the second intifada and the need for an immediate response to the threat, the Shin Bet created, among other things, the “Tequila Unit” (an immediate response unit). This was a combined unit comprising of members of the Shin Bet and the Yamam (Israel Police’s counter-terror unit), which was at the ready 24/7 in order to prevent a terror attack from being carried out within minutes of locating a suicide bomber or anyone else attempting to carry out an attack inside Israel.
Even in his junior command positions, it was already clear that Argaman’s work style wasn’t only pedantic, but also included his physical presence everywhere, whether it was inside the operations room or out in the field. People knew that he was around, and that he wouldn’t give up. Sometimes the field units would radio over “we have no indications of the target. We are leaving the area of operations,” but Argaman would order them to stay another two hours. Ambushes lasting for days were not out of the ordinary when he was in charge. There was no cutting corners with him, no slowing down, and he could be very blunt. While this led to a lot of anger and clashes with those he worked with, he was also valued for his professionalism and the results he brought.
It is common practice in the Shin Bet that the deputy head of a division was a natural candidate for the top position. It was a kind of vote of confidence in the man and his abilities. And, indeed, from 2003-2007, Nadav Argaman served as the head of the Operations Division. In this role he became part of the Shin Bet head’s special staff, which is the agency’s equivalent of the IDF’s General Staff. During his tenure, the division increased its professionalism, and centralized its offensive operational capabilities into one division. In the Mossad, for example, these same capabilities are spread out over four different divisions. These two organizations quite often make use of each other’s offensive capabilities.
Work at the Shin Bet doesn’t leave much time for people like Argaman to develop hobbies. Argaman spends his free time with his family and close friends. He enjoys travelling with his family, reading – mostly biographies – and he knows how appreciate a good meal and fine wine. He is also a workout fanatic. Every morning – at an almost unreasonable hour – he goes running, so he can be at the office at seven in the morning. His athleticism has stuck to the whole family, with his daughter even becoming Israel’s Teen Female Wrestling Champion.
In 2007 he left on sabbatical – together with his wife Ruth and their three children – who were all in need of a break. He went with his family to the US, where he became the Shin Bet’s representative, responsible for the security of Israeli embassies and consulates in the US and Canada, and for the security of El Al planes flying to North America.
After three years in the US, Argaman requested to stay in his position an additional year until another high ranking position in the Shin Bet opened up. Yuval Diskin, the director of the Shin Bet at that time, rejected the request. In the Shin Bet’s internal code, it was more than a hint: thanks for your service, my friend. You’re done. Argaman – perceived in the Shin Bet to be an introvert, even shy to a certain extent – is also a very ambitious person. He believed that he had more to contribute.
And, indeed, several months later, in May of 2011, Diskin finished his tenure as the head of the Shin Bet. His replacement, Yoram Cohen, was grooming two successors for himself, Nadav Argaman and Roni Alsheikh. Argaman was given the opportunity to be the deputy head of the Shin Bet. He was now not only a part of the Shin Bet’s “special staff,” but also a member of the small cabinet comprised of four high ranking officials: The head of the Shin Bet, deputy head of the Shin Bet, the head of the Operations Division, and head of the Manpower Division.
The deputy head of the Shin Bet is responsible for running operations, and filling in for the director when he is indisposed. He shares the responsibility of formulating the Shin Bet’s situation assessments, and of presenting these assessments to the prime minister. This leads to a close working relationship between the Shin Bet’s deputy head and the prime minister. The deputy also assists the director in presenting the Shin Bet’s positions to the cabinet and to the Knesset’s Defense and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee. He is also present at situation assessment meetings at the IDF’s General Staff, and at situation assessment meetings at the defense minister’s office. By the way, when Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon released a statement congratulating Argaman on his appointment, it was not just a compulsory gesture. They’ve known each other for 25 years, since Nadav was a fighter in the Shin Bet’s operational units, while Ya’alon was the head of the IDF’s Judea and Samaria Division.
The head of the Operations Division in the Shin Bet deals with the agency’s force structure, in terms of its multi-year planning, standardization, and budget. The force structure plans all must be approved by the deputy head of the Shin Bet. The Shin Bet has four-year work plans, which means that the work plan that Argaman approved as the deputy head in 2013 will be completed by him a director by 2017.
Even with his respectable resume, Argaman is considered an odd choice for the director of the Shin Bet. After the Six-Day War, the agency changed its core operating structure and directed most of its efforts to preventing Arab terror and to collecting intelligence on the Arab sector. Since then, almost all of the Shin Bet directors grew out of divisions which specialized in the Arab sector. The most important disciplines were, and still are, handling field agents and interrogation. The two exceptions were Avraham Shalom and General (res.) Ami Ayalon.
Even if it was unintentional, the appointment of Argaman – who throughout the majority of his career dealt with information collection technology and the prevention of attacks using technological measures – is quite revolutionary. This is a statement which highlights a change in the Shin Bet, that the agency is putting more of an emphasis on technology. Indeed, the division which grew more than any of the others throughout the tenure of current Shin Bet Director Yoram Cohen is the division in charge of electronic intelligence gathering, which has grown by 25 percent. This mostly means more computer engineers and technicians in the agency.
If the Shin Bet’s director is both the orchestra’s general manager and its chief policy maker, his deputy is the conductor, overseeing all of its components, and has to be knowledgeable about all of its instruments: from interrogations and running agents, to cyber warfare.
Therefore, when the professionals raised their eyebrows at Yoram Cohen’s recommendation to appoint Argaman as his successor – even though he did not rise in the ranks of the Arab field – Cohen rejected their criticism outright. In his opinion, Argaman’s ability to successfully work with all of the tools at the Shin Bet’s disposal as the deputy head of the Shin Bet was not in question.
And there was something else. When Argaman returned from the US and appointed the deputy director of the Shin Bet, something changed in the way he worked. The people around him noted that he had softened a little, became more patient, more at ease, a little more open. He was out of the system for three years, and so for the first few months of his term as deputy, he listened and learned. And that continued.
The opening shot
As deputy director of the Shin Bet, Argaman was responsible for preparing the Shin Bet forces and for their operations during Operation Pillar of Defense and Operation Protective Edge. Another notable operation he was in charge of during his tenure as Shin Bet deputy director was Operation Brother’s Keeper in search of the three kidnapped yeshiva students – Gilad Shaer, Naftali Frenkel and Eyal Yifrach – which began on June 12, 2014. The intelligence efforts ended on September 23 of that year – three months after the kidnapping – when the two murderers were found and killed.
The opening shot of Operation Pillar of Defense, on November 14 2012, was the Shin Bet’s responsibility. Shortly before the beginning of the operation, the Shin Bet was able to locate the head of Hamas’ military wing, Ahmed Jabari, and put a target on his back. Throughout Operation Pillar of Defense, it was the Shin Bet’s responsibility to assassinate high ranking Hamas officials – from division commanders and up. The strategy was to come up with a number of targets whose assassination would be considered “game changing” including government institutions, offices of defense forces, the Hamas bank, and Hamas and Islamic Jihad operation rooms. Immediately after the end of Operation Pillar of Defense, Hamas started to prepare for another round.
The intelligence units of the IDF Southern Command and the Shin Bet began to prepare for the next large-scale operation. The Shin Bet prepared to accompany IDF troops in operational activity inside the Gaza Strip – including collecting specific intelligence, such as where mines and booby-traps were laid. Later, Argaman, as the deputy director of the Shin Bet, stood with the head of Military Intelligence at the heart of the controversy over whether or not the IDF gave warning about the time frame of the next round: Operation Protective Edge.
He said – and hasn’t changed his opinion – that in April of 2014, the Shin Bet sent a warning to everyone in the defense establishment that Hamas was planning to carry out a pre-emptive strike, or attack in response to a security event. In such an attack, dozens of fighters from Hamas’ Special Forces will come out of the tunnels. The Shin Bet identified behavior, statements, and intentions of Hamas to launch a significant war in July of 2014.
The Shin Bet and Military Intelligence knew about most of the tunnels which crossed into Israel. The Shin Bet also identified Hamas’ efforts to build up its forces. Indeed, during the first day of the operation, the head of the Hamas naval commando unit was assassinated in a targeted killing, and the Shin Bet warned of the Hamas infiltration attempt from the sea in the Zikim area.
The work and preparation done by the intelligence branches – both from the Shin Bet and the IDF – enabled the detection of the majority of the entrances to the tunnels. The majority of the tunnels entrances into Israel were also known. At the very least, the Shin Bet and IDF were able to tell which sector these tunnels were in. In two instances, the Shin Bet was able to pinpoint exactly where the entry points of the tunnels were in Israel.
As a part of the list of targets compiled by the Shin Bet, in cooperation with Military Intelligence and the Southern Command, 416 terrorists were assassinated, of which 56 were commanders of different ranks. Mohammad Deif was also located and marked by the Shin Bet during the fighting, but he survived by the skin of his teeth.
At the end of the fighting, internal Shin Bet reports charged that the renewal and replenishing of stocks of rockets and missiles in the Gaza Strip was in question. Now, it is no longer in question. Even now, as Nadav Argaman begins his tenure as the director of the Shin Bet, Gaza is still his most immediate and explosive challenge. Hamas is preparing for another showdown, and the Hamas military wing believes that they’re more than ready to surprise Israel again. The Shin Bet is also preparing for the next round.
At the same time, other security and policy developments await him in the West Bank. Ahead of him are the fight against the continuous and deep espionage against Israel, principally from the various world powers; Iran and Hezbollah; Jewish terrorism; cyber threats; security – principally of important figures as well as aviation; the religious radicalization among Israeli Arabs; and the threat from the Islamic State on the borders of the Sinai Peninsula and the Golan Heights. And on the sidelines: Dealing with BDS activists operating inside Israel.
As for the Palestinian Authority and the West Bank, it seems that Argaman’s views are synchronized with the rest of the security branches: There is an importance in maintaining the stability of the PA; there is a need to battle incitement; the cooperation with the Palestinian security forces must be strengthened, as they are the key to preventing terror attacks; it is imperative to keep Fatah’s Tanzim militant branch from becoming involved in the violence; the Palestinian economy should be cultivated, and investment in the Palestinian Authority encouraged.
As for the fight against terror, no one will be surprised if on his first day on the job, Argaman will present the various division and regional heads with a systematic doctrine. According to the Shin Bet, Hamas is doing all it can in order to change over from knife attacks to a full-fledged armed intifada, in both the West Bank and Jerusalem. The acts of terror – including suicide bombings – are supposed to drive a wedge between Israel and the PA and upend stability, which will enable Hamas to try to gain control over the PA.
On the January 1, Nashat Melhem, the terrorist from Arara, carried out an attack on Dizengoff Street in Tel Aviv. Dealing with terror attacks committed by Israeli Arabs is now the responsibility of Yoram Cohen’s two favorites: Nadav Argaman and Roni Alsheikh. Alsheikh, as the police commissioner, got the most of the public criticism. But those who were truly responsible for the manhunt after the terrorist were the Shin Bet. The police played second fiddle.
The manhunt exposed quite a few gaps in knowledge about the Arab sector. As the director of the Shin Bet, Argaman will have to deal with these gaps in knowledge. He will also need to deal with the perceived effect that the Islamic State has on Israeli Arab youth. While this is still not a phenomenon, and there have only been a couple dozen Israeli-Arabs who have gone off to fight with ISIS, the Shin Bet still need to work to stop this from becoming a trend.
In September of 2014, Argaman was loaned to the Atomic Energy Commission, and Roni Alsheikh took over as the deputy director of the Shin Bet. What was less known at the same time is that during Argaman’s time as the Shin Bet’s deputy director, he spent a lot of time with the prime minister, who was deeply impressed by him. Later, when he was loaned to the Atomic Energy Commission to deal with Netanyahu’s favorite subject, the prime minister became even more determined to support Yoram Cohen’s candidate for successor. The appointment was agreed on back in September 2015, when Alsheikh agreed to take on the role of the police commissioner. Netanyahu didn’t even pretend to be looking at other candidates. Yoram Cohen reinstated Argaman to his position as Shin Bet deputy director and announcing the appointment became a question of timing.
As usual, Netanyahu found himself in distress, and not as usual, he announced the appointment three months before Cohen’s stepping down date. Last Thursday afternoon, Argaman was summoned to the Prime Minister’s Office, where he was told that he was chosen to be the Shin Bet’s director, and that the news will be announced later that day. Nadav Argaman barely had time to tell his family, and the news already made headlines all over the media.

Is beneath you a horse or a donkey?
Turki Al-Dakhil/Al Arabiya/February 22/16
The mocker on this occasion is one of the godfathers and a leading figure at social networking websites. Egyptian activist Wael Ghonim – whose anonymous Facebook page “We Are All Khaled Said” helped launch the Egyptian revolution in 2011 – conceded in a TED talk in December that social media websites have succeeded at breaking things and not at making them. “I once said: ‘If you want to liberate a society, all you need is the Internet.’ I was wrong”, Ghonim said. I wished to say to Friedman: Your statements confirm Badi al-Zaman al-Hamadani’s saying: “You will see, when the dust clears, if beneath you is a horse or a donkey!” “Online discussions quickly descend into angry mobs. It’s as if we forget that the people behind screens are actually real people and not just avatars. It has become really hard to change our opinions. Because of the speed and brevity of social media we are forced to jump to conclusions and write sharp opinions in 140 characters about complex world affairs”, he added.
Friedman’s take
Ghonim’s statements attracted columnist Thomas Friedman’s attention. Earlier this month, Friedman, who was enthusiastic about Arab revolutions, wrote: “Over the last few years we’ve been treated to a number of “Facebook revolutions,” from the Arab Spring to Occupy Wall Street to the squares of Istanbul, Kiev and Hong Kong, all fueled by social media. But once the smoke cleared, most of these revolutions failed to build any sustainable new political order, in part because as so many voices got amplified, consensus-building became impossible.”I wished to say to Friedman: Your statements confirm Badi al-Zaman al-Hamadani’s saying: “You will see, when the dust clears, if beneath you is a horse or a donkey!”

How Putin is winning in Syria
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/Monday, 22 February 2016
When Vladimir Putin first committed himself to the Syrian conflict, many commentators, including myself, thought that he was taking a large and potentially very costly gamble: if he got bogged down in Syria like the Soviets did in Afghanistan, this could well be the end of his regime and that would have spelled trouble for the whole of Russia as well.
But it now seems safe to conclude that his gamble has paid off. Spectacularly so. There are three reasons why this worked out well for Putin: the Russian domestic economy, its regional influence in the Middle East, and its relationship with Europe.
Even as of now, Russia is not in a good place. It was widely reported last year that the Russian economy is in the doldrums. Both the real economy and the government’s revenues in the country are hugely over-reliant on oil and commodities more broadly. The prices of all those things are still at uncomfortably low levels.
And what is more, with the slowdown of China, and the expectation looming around the world that we are heading into a new global slowdown, the chance that oil and commodity prices will bounce back soon is virtually zero. Nor is there anything else in the economic forecasts to suggest that the Russian economy will be boosted by any other factors.
But this is no longer reported on – either in the international media or in Russia. There is precious little Putin can do about fixing the Russian economy in the short term, and he has squandered 15 years of being in government not restructuring the economy away from natural resources and towards high-value, high-growth sectors. But what he can do is distract attention from these facts. And with the intervention in Syria, he is doing that brilliantly.
Secondly, there is the key issue of influence in the Middle East. For decades, regional influence in the region was exercised both by the U.S. and by Russia in the form of backing competing strong-man regimes. With President Obama’s moves towards a more “ethical” foreign policy, and the backing we the West have given to the Arab Spring, many of our client dictators in the region have been toppled: most notably Mubarak in Egypt and Ben Ali in Tunisia.
There are three reasons why this worked out well for Putin: the Russian domestic economy, its regional influence in the Middle East, and its relationship with Europe
The others, such some Gulf states and the Israelis are shifting very uncomfortably in their seats, as the U.S. is not only failing to back them repeatedly, but has also gone out of its way to achieve a détente with their arch-enemy, Iran. There may be very many reasons why the deal with Iran was a good thing. But we must appreciate that many of our regional allies will not be very pleased about it.
By contrast, Russia is sticking by its clients in the region, and is taking significant risks to do so. The Assad regime has been Russian allies for over half a century. And when Syria was threatened, Putin backed them with money, weapons, intelligence, and ultimately, boots on the ground. Regimes in the region are watching very closely.
If Russia succeeds in keeping Assad in office, they will be seen as a much more reliable ally than the U.S. Fragile regimes who do not feel confident that the U.S. has their back may well start gravitating towards the Russian sphere of influence.
Europe’s woes
Lastly, it has already been observed by some commentators that Syria is a huge problem for Europe. And Europe’s woes are Putin’s gain. Let us not forget that Russia is still stuck in a frozen war in Ukraine. Just as it has annexed Crimea, it also continues to wreak havoc on its former client through that war, but also through economic sanctions.
The Europeans have initially provided what for Putin was an unexpectedly robust response to that crisis, and it has led to a breakdown of relations between Putin and Merkel who had been on very good terms before. But the Syrian crisis has been the major factor behind the ongoing European migration crisis. And the migration crisis is tearing the EU and individual EU member states apart politically.
European governments have to contend with the rise of ultra-nationalist factions in their domestic politics, the Schengen agreement of open borders in Europe is teetering on the edge, and the financial burden of absorbing the migration is pushing states like Greece, already economically fragile, ever closer to the abyss. In these circumstances, Europe’s leaders no longer have the time or resources to engage with the Ukraine situation. They have far too many things on their plates just keeping everything together at home.
We are thus left on the defensive, on all these fronts, and Putin can just keep rubbing salt on our wounds, as the West is wobbling. It is hard to conceive how Putin could get more out of the Syrian war than he is already getting.

Moscow to the Arabs: Iran is our top ally
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/Monday, 22 February 2016
The Arab-Russian Forum will convene at the ministerial level in Moscow next week, in the midst of the battle for Syria amid growing Russian-Turkish tensions and increasing talk of Saudi and Gulf ground intervention in Syria. The Russian foreign minister will be very clear in drawing the strategic frameworks for Russian policies in the Middle East, and will insist on an agenda that Arab ministers are unlikely to find compatible with Arab priorities.
Sergei Lavrov will not soften his rhetoric just because he will be playing host, because the broad features of Russia’s Middle Eastern policy, as drafted by President Putin, are not subject to negotiations from Moscow’s viewpoint. If the Arab ministers still believe it will be possible to induce a radical change in Russian policy, then they will hit a solid wall and perhaps even condemnation because this will be seen as tampering with Russian national interests.
These days, the Russian mood is stubborn and rigid, yet Russian diplomacy believes there are ways to soften relations with the Gulf countries despite the rift over Syria. Russia also believes that having special relations with Egypt is a crucial part of its goals in the Middle East, with one eye on Turkey. Meanwhile, Moscow is determined to win the battle for Aleppo at any cost. It does not take seriously the international anti-ISIS coalition in Syria, which it sees as futile.
Russia also wants to let everyone know that its relations with Iran are not affected by anything. So, faced with all this Russian clarity, what will the GCC foreign ministers take with them to Moscow? Is there a single Arab agenda in the Arab-Russian forum? Or will Arab foreign ministers take their differences with them to the Russian capital and leave without making any achievement? Perhaps it is worthwhile for Arab ministers to understand Russia’s military and political thinking before the meeting.
Bone of contention
Syria is a key issue of contention, especially in military terms, in light of Russia’s insistence on settling the battle for Aleppo in the regime’s favor. According to well-informed Russian sources, airstrikes will not stop. Ground operations in partnership with the regime and its allied militias will not relent until Aleppo is secured and supply routes to Turkey are cut off. Moscow has only clung on further to this strategy after Turkey hinted at a ground operation in Syria, before downplaying it days later.
Moscow believes severing routes between Syria and Turkey cuts off supplies it accuses Ankara of providing to terrorist groups, which are not confined to ISIS and the Nusra Front according to the Russian definition. Moscow believes helping the regime restore control of Aleppo would boost its morale and allow it to continue fighting the Russian war against Islamist groups it classes as terrorist groups. Aleppo is therefore key to the strategy pursued by Russia, which will not stop bombing it for the sake of the Vienna process created by Russia or for fear of European or American reactions.
The contrast is clear between the European reaction and the U.S. reaction. Europe fears Russian policies and their implications, including further refugee influx to its shores. Russian diplomacy refers to what it calls Russian-American accord on a roadmap for Syria, which apparently ignores the resurgent cold war between the two countries on more than one issue, including the Middle East. The Vienna Process, which includes a timetable for a ceasefire and elections, is part of this roadmap as seen by Moscow. But Russian diplomacy has different plans when it comes to the war on ISIS, Nusra, and other groups.
If the Arab ministers still believe it will be possible to induce a radical change in Russian policy, then they will hit a solid wall, perhaps even condemnation
First of all, the battle over what constitutes a terrorist group and what constitutes an armed opposition group is an exercise in semantics. The real Russian point of view is that the regime in Damascus is the legitimate regime, and that the armed opposition is illegitimate. Therefore, who is a terrorist and who is opposition is only part of the elasticity necessary in diplomacy, and is not a serious issue. Moscow understands the extent of U.S. support for the armed opposition, which Washington has often questioned, sometimes arming rebels and at others abandoning them.
Second, Russian diplomacy believes U.S. pledges to crush ISIS in Syria as an empty promise. For one thing, Moscow believes, crushing ISIS can only be done in collaboration with the regime in Damascus and its allies on the ground. Therefore, the divergence the U.S. and Russian understanding of what it would take to defeat ISIS is radical: One side believes it would be possible by removing Bashar al-Assad, because he is an obstacle to mobilizing Sunni support against ISIS, while the other side believes I would be only possible by working with Assad and his militias with Russian air cover.
For this reason, Moscow has not welcomed Arab ground forces even if their remit is to fight ISIS in Syria under U.S. leadership of the international coalition. Moscow is committed to the end to the Assad regime, and is shrugging off accusations of bombing the opposition rather than ISIS. It does not care that it is giving the impression of rejecting Arab assistance against “Sunni terrorism”, fearing this could weaken or topple Assad.
There are two views regarding Arab military involvement in Syria: Some say there is no option but to deploy Arab-Islamic ground forces to be the boots on the grounds that the U.S. will not provide. Otherwise, Russia, Iran, and the regime in Damascus will achieve total victory in Syria and eradicate the Syrian opposition.
The other view holds that it would be a trap for Saudi and Emirati forces, because Washington, even if it becomes implicated, would leave halfway down the road as it is its habit, and because it is too late to change the Syrian equation after Russia intervened and decided to settle the battle in favor of the Syrian regime.
There are also the Turkish and Kurdish factors at play. Washington backs the Kurds in Iraq being the boots on the ground of the anti-ISIS coalition there, and is sympathetic to Kurdish ambitions but not to the extent of supporting an independent Kurdistan spanning the Kurdish communities of Iraq, Syria, Iran, and Turkey, at least not for now.
The red line
For its part, Ankara sees Kurdish statehood as a red line since it would impact large parts of Turkey. President Erdogan is intent on fighting Kurdish groups in Syria, some of which he sees as terrorist organizations and some as allies of the Assad regime.
Russia is pleased by the Kurds’ military role that benefits the regime in Damascus and Russian strategy in Syria, and is wagering that Washington would pressure Ankara to tone down its threats of ground operations in Syria against Kurds. Russia is hoping NATO would not be involved and implicated, despite the fact that Turkey is a NATO member and there are certain obligations according to the alliance’s charter.
Russia, for its part, happy with contributions Kurdish military in favor of the regime in Damascus and in favor of its strategy in Syria, which is betting that Washington would press Ankara to soften unit pedaling ground intervention in Syria, the prosecution of the Kurds. Bet that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) would not descend will not be compromised despite the fact that Turkey is a member in it and there's obligations under the charter. Russia is also betting on American apathy vis-à-vis its policies in Syria to defuse growing European criticism of the Russian role, bombardment, and displacement of refugees in the direction of Europe, which some believe is a deliberate Russian policy.
Amid all this, Russian diplomacy sees relations with Turkey especially as concerns Syria from the lens of the personal hostility between the Tsar Putin and the Sultan Erdogan. However, there are factors involved that certainly go beyond the two men’s characters, and have to do with the ideological and religious orientations each has.
Indeed, Putin believes the rise of Sunni Islamism is a threat to Russia, and sees Erdogan as an incubator of Islamism, be it moderate or militant. For his part, Erdogan has seen himself as the sultan of political Islam who wants to restore Ottoman influence in the Arab region. He has invested a lot in Syria and acted arrogantly, contributing to the disaster in Syria, and today, he is face to face with Russian arrogance, another crucial factor in the Syrian tragedy.
The difference is that Russia considers itself victorious in the Syrian battle, and is enforcing red lines to warn Turkey against confronting it in Syria. This is while Turkey appears confused and weak against Russia in Syria. Turkey also appears to be losing in Egypt, which Turkey had made the first stop for the rise of political Islam to power through the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood project met an early end, much quicker than expected, and were replaced in power by someone completely opposed to Erdogan’s Neo-Ottoman dreams.
Egypt and Iran
Putin then capitalized on this loss, giving Egypt a crucial position in his strategy for the Middle East and North Africa. Egypt, according to the same Russian diplomatic sources, is now one of the most important pillars of Russian foreign policy second in importance only to the Islamic Republic of Iran but ahead of the Arab Gulf states.
Moscow considers the Islamic Republic of Iran central to its international and regional alliances. According to Russian diplomacy, the relationship with the Islamic Republic of Iran is part of a long-term strategy. In other words, regardless of whether the moderate mullahs or hardline mullahs in Iran and the Revolutionary Guards prevail, Moscow considers the ties with Tehran the most important bilateral relationship in the entire Middle East, whether Gulf Arabs like it or not.
Developing dialog with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf countries would therefore proceed based on two key premises: Russian-Iranian strategic relationships are a constant, but this does not prevent establishing and developing relations with the Gulf countries regardless of the disagreement on Syria. And second, the U.S.-Gulf relationship is on the decline and is marred by mistrust, which opens a window for new kinds of relations between Moscow and Gulf countries.
In other words, Russian diplomacy wants to upgrade ties with the Gulf through the gateway of arming Gulf countries. Moscow believes common interests can be served in the arms market: on the one hand it is a strategic and economic asset to Moscow. And on the other hand, it is a way for Gulf countries frustrated by Washington to say they have other options.
In addition, what Putin wants for Russia goes beyond winning Syria. He wants to cement Russia’s position in the Middle East, and there is an opportunity to do so now with the decline of U.S. interest in the region under President Obama. Russian diplomacy under Putin still sees Washington through the lens of the Cold War, even if the two sides are active partners in Syria.
Russian diplomacy does not see any adventurism in its policies, whatever the human cost has been in Syria or the risk of becoming implicated in a quagmire or a protracted war of attrition with ISIS and Al-Qaeda. The most Russia will offer to the GCC countries is turning a blind eye to what is taking place in Yemen, without directly supporting the Iranian position there.
However, military and political plans in Syria are clear and Russian diplomacy will communicate these to the Arab diplomacy at the forum in Moscow. The hope remains that Arab ministers will be clear and candid at the meeting, regardless of whether their choice will be to confront Russia or adapt to what it has imposed through its military intervention in Syria, as a strategic fait accompli with long term goals and Iranian priorities.

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