LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 08/16

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

Bible Quotations For Today
This is my Son, the Beloved, with whom I am well pleased
"Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 03/13-17: "Then Jesus came from Galilee to John at the Jordan, to be baptized by him. John would have prevented him, saying, ‘I need to be baptized by you, and do you come to me?’ But Jesus answered him, ‘Let it be so now; for it is proper for us in this way to fulfil all righteousness.’ Then he consented. And when Jesus had been baptized, just as he came up from the water, suddenly the heavens were opened to him and he saw the Spirit of God descending like a dove and alighting on him. And a voice from heaven said, ‘This is my Son, the Beloved, with whom I am well pleased.’"

As you therefore have received Christ Jesus the Lord, continue to live your lives in him, rooted and built up in him and established in the faith, just as you were taught, abounding in thanksgiving.
Letter to the Colossians 02/01-07: "I want you to know how much I am struggling for you, and for those in Laodicea, and for all who have not seen me face to face. I want their hearts to be encouraged and united in love, so that they may have all the riches of assured understanding and have the knowledge of God’s mystery, that is, Christ himself, in whom are hidden all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge. I am saying this so that no one may deceive you with plausible arguments. For though I am absent in body, yet I am with you in spirit, and I rejoice to see your morale and the firmness of your faith in Christ. As you therefore have received Christ Jesus the Lord, continue to live your lives in him, rooted and built up in him and established in the faith, just as you were taught, abounding in thanksgiving."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on january07-08.16.htm
Hezbollah's ineffective response to Israel/Nicholas Blanford/Now Lebanon/January 07/16
Debate In Lebanon Surrounding Saudi Establishment Of Islamic Anti-Terrorism Alliance, Lebanon's Inclusion In It/E. B. Picali/MEMRI/January 07/16
The mountainous Arab Israeli gun problem has spiralled beyond control/DEBKAfile/January 07/16
The joy of sects/Michael Young/Now Lebanon/January 07/16
Will Iran suspend hajj pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
How will Saudi-Iranian crisis affect the region/Ali Hashem/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
Saudi-Iranian crisis complicates Ankara’s regional plans/Semih Idiz/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
Why are Iranian investors shrugging at nuclear deal/Alireza Ramezani/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
Congress seeks to punish countries that fail to hinder foreign fighters/Julian Pecquet/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
Who Actually Represents American Muslims/Samuel Westrop/2016 Gatestone Institute/January 07/16
Tehran’s smog problem unlikely to clear up anytime soon/Mahmoud Pargoo/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
Will missing text message disqualify Khomeini’s grandson/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
Congress sets up first showdown of the year over Iran deal/Julian Pecquet/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
On privatizing Saudi airports/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/07 January/16
More nightmares ahead for Syrian refugees in Turkey/Mahir Zeynalov/Al Arabiya/07 January/16
Surprise: Assad will outlast Obama in office/Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/07 January/16
Corruption, crony capitalism at heart of Israeli politics/Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/07 January/16

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on january07-08.16.htm 
Hezbollah's ineffective response to Israel
U.S. Blacklists Alleged Hizbullah Financier Charara
Presidential Elections Postponed Again as MPs Warn of 'Lebanon's Collapse'
Report: Geagea-Aoun Meeting Under Preparation
Saniora Condemns Silence over 'Crime against Humanity' in Syria's Madaya
Maronite Bishops Council: No One Can Benefit from Manipulating Fate of the Republic
Man Found Dead at his Residence in Taanayel
Rifi: Hizbullah's Rhetoric Aggravates Hostility, Does Not Build a Nation
Report: Fear of Assassination Threats against March 14 Figures
Debate In Lebanon Surrounding Saudi Establishment Of Islamic Anti-Terrorism Alliance, Lebanon's Inclusion In It

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on january07-08.16.htm 
Three Palestinians attempt stabbing attack in West Bank; assailants shot
The mountainous Arab Israeli gun problem has spiralled beyond control
Syria government to allow aid into besieged Madaya
In besieged Syrian town, peace talks seen as pointless
Church Leader Backs Syria Campaign as Russia Marks Orthodox Christmas
Syria Government to Allow Aid into Besieged Madaya
Egypt: no one hurt in attack near Pyramids
Man Shot Dead Attacking Police on Charlie Hebdo Anniversary
Somalia Cuts Diplomatic Ties with Iran
More than 50 Dead in Bombing at Libya Police School
Blair Urged Gadhafi to Find 'Safe Place', Reveal Transcripts
Shots Fired at Egypt Tourist Hotel, No One Hurt
Qatar Recalls Ambassador to Iran
Rouhani Wants Urgent Case against Saudi Embassy Suspects
Iran Accuses Saudi Arabia of Hitting Embassy in Yemen Air Strike
Iran Accuses Saudi of Air Strike on Yemen Embassy
Deadly Istanbul Airport Incident was Mortar Attack
Germany Must Have Frank Talk about Integration, Says Merkel
Minister Dion condemns North Korean nuclear detonation claims

Links From Jihad Watch Site for january07-08.16.htm
Raymond Ibrahim: U.S. Christian Groups Support Muslim Refugees, Ignore Persecuted Christians
Raymond Ibrahim: Muslim Persecution of Christians, November 2015
New settlement protects Muslims from NYPD surveillance
Egypt: Islamic jihadists open fire on Israeli tour bus near Pyramids
Islamic State arrests, possibly executes, five youth for greeting Christians on Christmas
Pope to refugees: Muslims can “expel the illness within our hearts” with Qur’an
Islamic State plotters arrested in Sacramento, Houston, Milwaukee
Libya: Islamic jihadists murder 60 policemen, wound 200 others with truck bombing
Cologne New Year’s Eve: Muslims hit police with bottles — “I’m a Syrian! You have to treat me kindly! Mrs. Merkel invited me.”
Paris: Muslim brandishing knife and screaming “Allahu akbar” shot dead outside police station
Sudan: Muslim turns in his son to police for leaving Islam
Nigeria court sentences Muslim cleric to death for blaspheming Muhammad
Pamela Geller: Charlie Hebdo’s PTSD
Will 2016 Be the Year of Abbas Diplomacy?
Reza Aslan wants to see a Muslim “All in the Family”; will he play Meathead?

Hezbollah's ineffective response to Israel
Nicholas Blanford/Now Lebanon/January 07/16
Despite two weeks of warnings and threats traded by Hezbollah and Israel following the December 19 assassination of Samir Kuntar, the latest escalation between the two enemies appears to have fizzled out with an anti-climactic and bloodless retaliation in the Shebaa Farms.
The unspoken, but well-understood, rules of the game of brinkmanship played by both parties granted Hezbollah some latitude to exact a deadly price against Israel for assassinating Kuntar. Irrespective of pledges by Israeli officials to “aggressively retaliate” against any Hezbollah revenge attack, Hezbollah’s leadership knows that the Israeli government will not go to war over a couple of dead soldiers. That reality was confirmed a year ago when two Israeli soldiers died in a Hezbollah anti-tank missile ambush in the Shebaa Farms. Israel responded with customary artillery shelling opposite the ambush location and nothing more.
The powerful roadside bomb detonated on Monday by Hezbollah on the patrol road near the Israeli army’s Zebdine outpost in the Shebaa Farms was intended to inflict casualties. But there are no guarantees of success in such operations despite all the prior planning and years of experience that went into it. From Israeli accounts, casualties were spared partly because one of the vehicles struck was a well-protected D9 armored bulldozer.
The lack of follow-up comment by Hezbollah officials warning Israel that the account with Kuntar remains open, suggests that as far as Hezbollah is concerned, the episode is concluded. Israel can consider itself lucky that no blood was spilled this time.
The Israeli military undertook extensive security precautions along the Blue Line in expectation of a Hezbollah retaliatory attack following Kuntar’s death in an airstrike in Damascus. Troop movements were restricted, civilians were warned to stay away from the border with Lebanon and in the days ahead of the roadside bomb ambush, Israeli artillery shelled the outskirts of the Shebaa Farms in an attempt to deter Hezbollah infiltration.
Additionally, Israel operates a sophisticated surveillance and monitoring system along the border to check for approaching threats and infiltrations. The system in place since around 1999 was called “Solid Mirror,” developed by Israel’s state-owned defense company Rafael, which used ground and air-based sensor and surveillance technologies to grant the Israeli military a “virtual security zone” extending up to eight kilometers into Lebanese territory. Around two years ago, Solid Mirror reportedly was replaced along the Lebanon border with the Elbit Systems Multi-Sensor Reconnaissance and Surveillance System (MRSS) in a $60 million security enhancement package. MRSS coordinates an array of daytime and thermal cameras, laser rangefinders, ground radars, and small pilotless drones with data feeding into a command and control center to provide 24-hour, all-weather surveillance along the entire border with Lebanon.
Nevertheless, the system failed to detect the approach and infiltration by the Hezbollah bomb squad for a distance of about 500 meters into the Shebaa Farms. Furthermore, this is not the first time that Hezbollah has chosen to plant roadside bombs in this location.
Between October 2000 and the outbreak of war in July 2006, Hezbollah launched 23 separate attacks against Israeli targets in the Shebaa Farms. (The figure excludes the 12 attacks Hezbollah waged in the Shebaa Farms during a two-week escalation in April 2002 coinciding with Israel’s “Operation Defensive Shield” invasion of the West Bank). Most of the attacks consisted of rocket and mortar barrages against Israeli army compounds. Hezbollah only carried out four roadside bomb attacks in the Shebaa Farms before 2006. Two of them were in October 2000 in the early stages of the campaign before Israel began tightening its security in the area and building new supply roads hidden from the Lebanese side of the Blue Line to protect vehicles from Hezbollah’s line-of-sight anti-tank missiles.
Hezbollah carried out an audacious roadside bomb attack in May 2004 when it ambushed a unit of Israeli Egoz commandos with an explosive device planted at the entrance of the Roweisat Allam outpost above Kfar Shuba village. Eight months later, Hezbollah detonated another roadside bomb, this one on a patrol road some 900 meters northwest of the Zebdine outpost on the lower slopes of the Shebaa Farms mountain, the same location as Monday’s operation.
Hezbollah abandoned its Shebaa Farms campaign following the 2006 war but it has used the occupied mountainside in the past two years as a locus of retaliation for unusual Israeli attacks. In March 2014, Hezbollah targeted an Israeli patrol again on the Zebdine road with two roadside bombs, causing damage to a vehicle but no casualties. There was no immediate claim by Hezbollah for the attack (Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah confirmed Hezbollah’s responsibility in an interview some months later), but it came in the context of a flurry of minor anti-Israel attacks in the Golan Heights following Israel’s air strike against a Hezbollah weapons storage facility near Janta in the eastern Bekaa Valley.
In October 2014, Hezbollah wounded two Israeli soldiers in a double roadside bombing near the Roweisat Allam outpost in response to the death a month earlier of a Hezbollah engineer.
Therefore, of the seven roadside bombs detonated by Hezbollah in the Shebaa Farms in the past 15 years, three of them were in exactly the same location, a hairpin bend on the Israeli patrol road 900 meters from the Zebdine outpost.
How the Hezbollah bomb team evaded the Israeli surveillance blanket along the Blue Line is unclear, although the bad weather at the weekend would have helped. In the 1990s, Hezbollah fighters occasionally outwitted Israeli thermal imaging cameras to infiltrate the occupation zone by wearing neoprene diving suits to mask their individual heat signatures. Whether such measures are still adopted or whether Hezbollah has a more sophisticated means of bypassing Israeli sensors is unknown. But one would imagine that the Israeli military from now on will treat that remote hairpin bend near the Zebdine outpost with a good deal more caution during future periods of tension with Hezbollah.
**Nicholas Blanford is Beirut correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor and author of Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah’s Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel.

U.S. Blacklists Alleged Hizbullah Financier Charara
Naharnet/January 07/16/The United States named an alleged financier of the Hizbullah to its sanctions blacklist Thursday in a mounting effort to crack down on the group's financial resources. The U.S. Treasury said Ali Youssef Charara and his Beirut-based telecommunications company Spectrum Investment Group Holding have received millions of dollars from Hizbullah to invest in commercial projects. The sanctions freeze any assets of Charara and Spectrum under U.S. jurisdiction and forbid Americans from doing business with them. It was the first such move since President Barack Obama signed a new law in December making it easier to target Hizbullah's finances. The United States has officially labeled Hizbullah a terrorist group and has already taken actions against its business network, which spans to West Africa, where Charara has interests in the telecommunications sector, the Treasury said.

Presidential Elections Postponed Again as MPs Warn of 'Lebanon's Collapse'
Naharnet/January 07/16/The 34th session to elect a president has been postponed on Thursday due to the lack of quorum at parliament. Speaker Nabih Berri scheduled a new electoral session for February 8. MP Marwan Hamadeh said after failed elections: “The number of lawmakers present at the failed session reflects the pessimism over the possibility to elect a head of state.”MTV said that some 36 MPs were present at parliament. “Neither the local nor regional conditions indicate that a president will be elected any time soon,” added Hamadeh. He noted that the deterioration of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran will negatively impact the chance to elect a president in ebanon. Telecommunications Minister Butros Harb meanwhile condemned the ongoing failure to elect a president, saying: “We can no longer continue in such a manner.” “We cannot claim to love this country and then treat it in such a way,” he said. “We will continue to attend these electoral sessions, because we have a duty to fulfill. We hope other officials will also assume these responsibilities,” he stressed. “They should realize that they should perform these duties in wake of the explosive regional developments,” remarked the minister, while warning that Lebanon will be “on the brink of collapse if this situation persists.”Tensions between the two regional powers dipped to a new low after the kingdom executed prominent Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr over the weekend. The development saw the severing of ties between the two sides. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor due to ongoing disputes between the March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate.

Report: Geagea-Aoun Meeting Under Preparation
Naharnet/January 07/16/Successive contacts are taking place between leaderships of the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement to arrange for a meeting between the parties' heads, which reports say are to focus on the presidential elections, An Nahar daily reported on Thursday. The meeting between LF chief Samir Geagea and ex-chief of the FPM MP Michel Aoun is set to take place at Maarab, added the daily. It said that Geagea is likely to support the nomination of Aoun if a session is scheduled to elect Marada leader MP Suleiman Franjieh as president. Geagea would prefer Aoun over Franjieh for the position of president, said the daily, because the two men "have something in common and have earlier signed a Declaration of Intentions as a political understanding to ease tensions on the Christian and national scenes."Both Geagea and Aoun are candidates for the presidency. Their rivalry, in addition to other issues, have left Baabda Palace vacant since President Michel Suleiman's six-year tenure ended in May 2014. An initiative emerged lately by Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri suggesting the nomination of Franjieh for the presidency. The nomination has been met with reservations from the Kataeb Party, the FPM, and LF.

Saniora Condemns Silence over 'Crime against Humanity' in Syria's Madaya
Naharnet/January 07/16/Head of the Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc MP Fouad Saniora slammed on Thursday the silence over the “crime against humanity” that is taking place in Syria's Madaya. He said: “The crime in Madaya is a black mark against all those who are witnessing it and have failed to do anything about it. Why is no one talking about this crime?” “Madaya is only a few kilometers away from Lebanon. The crime against it is being committed under the noses of the Arab and Muslim world,” he remarked. “We condemn the ongoing siege against the town and plead to the world to lift the siege and help the people,” Saniora continued. He also demanded that the United Nations Security Council intervene in this issue. “The Syrian regime is committing the crime against Madaya and we hope that Hizbullah is not involved in it,” he remarked. “The party's possible involvement in this crime will negatively impact ties between the Lebanese,” added the MP. Head of the Mustaqbal Movement MP Saad Hariri later questioned via Twitter the world's silence over the developments in Madaya, “Where does the world stand on two months of siege against 40,000 civilians in Madaya?” he asked. Some 40,000 people, mostly civilians, are believed to be in the town of Madaya in Damascus province, many of them displaced from the neighboring rebel stronghold of Zabadani. Both Zabadani and Madaya are under the control of a loose alliance of opposition forces, including secular rebels and Islamist groups. They are encircled by regime forces, and last year were part of a deal, along with two rebel-besieged villages in northwestern Syria, to allow aid in and the exit of civilians and the wounded. But so far Madaya has seen only a one-off aid delivery three months ago, and residents, activists, and aid agencies describe dire conditions in the town now. According to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights earlier this week, at least 10 people have died from lack of food and medicine in the town. "Many of the town's residents have been forced to survive on weeds and others pay huge sums of money at government checkpoints to obtain food," Observatory director Rami Abdel Rahman said. "Young people, women and children have turned into skeletons from hunger. The town needs everything," said Moaz al-Qalamuni, a journalist in Madaya.

Maronite Bishops Council: No One Can Benefit from Manipulating Fate of the Republic
Naharnet/January 07/16/The Maronite Bishops Council condemned on Thursday the ongoing failure to elect a president, demanding that dialogue be revived among rival powers. They said after their monthly meeting: “No one can benefit from manipulating the fate of the republic.” “Lebanon needs deep dialogue due to the political crisis that is eating away at the state,” they stressed. “Dialogue should adhere to the constitution, which will lead to the election of a president,” they noted. It is no longer a secret that the presidential elections is being linked to regional developments, they added however. “Only dialogue and political solutions, not military ones, can resolve regional conflicts,” said the bishops. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor due to ongoing disputes between the March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate.
The 34th session to elect a president failed to be held earlier on Thursday due to a lack of quorum at parliament.

Man Found Dead at his Residence in Taanayel
Naharnet/January 07/16/The dead body of man in his seventies was found overnight at his residence in the Bekaa town of Taanayel, the state-run National News Agency reported on Thursday. The deceased, Awadh Turki al-Karim, is from the Zahle town of Bar Elias. He was found with his hands and legs tied up, NNA added. No further details were revealed and investigations were opened into the case.

Rifi: Hizbullah's Rhetoric Aggravates Hostility, Does Not Build a Nation
Naharnet/January 07/16/Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi stressed on Thursday that Hizbullah's rhetoric pushes for additional tension in the country and does not help in building a nation, the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat reported. “Hizbullah's logic pushes for more hostility and does not build a country,” said Rifi in an interview with the daily. “Building nations can only succeed when based on preserving the rights of all,” he added, expressing regret that “Iran and its allies in the region, like Hizbullah, do not read history to learn their lessons.” “The Lebanese have lived a history of assassinations with Hizbullah. It is unacceptable for the party to reach the limits of determining who has the right to enter the country and who does not,” added the Minister. Hizbullah MP Mohammed Raad had waged a blistering attack on Mustaqbal chief MP Saad Hariri without naming him on Monday, saying “those who are suffering from bankruptcy in their exile must not find a place to return to in Lebanon in order to rob the country once again.””No matter what arms they possess, that does not mean that Lebanon has become an Iranian farm. Lebanon's ineptitude is an Arab one and it will not change," Rifi added. “Lebanon will never be Persian or any thing else. Some parties seem to be drunk with the ecstasy of their weapons. To those we say, you have crossed all the lines. We are partners in rights and duties, and your weapons will not give you additional capacity to take over the rights of others."

Report: Fear of Assassination Threats against March 14 Figures
Naharnet/January 07/16/Lebanese security and intelligence agencies have warned on Thursday of assassination schemes targeting prominent figures of the al-Mustaqbal movement, the Kuwaiti newspaper al-Seyasah reported. Senior Mustaqbal figures and March 14 MPs revealed that security and intelligence apparatuses warned them of “serious threats,” and advised them to take “utmost caution and to limit their movements. ”The threat comes following deterioration in relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran following the execution of Shiite Saudi cleric Nimr al-Nimr.

We Want Accountability' Demands Briefing on Trash Export Deal
Naharnet/January 07/16/Civil society activists from the 'We Want Accountability' campaign held a sit-in near the Central Inspection Bureau in Beirut demanding further details from the government on a deal that was signed with two firms to export Lebanon's trash. Some of the activists tried to storm into the building shouting 'peaceful, peaceful' but the security forces did not allow them to do so. One of the activists said: “The citizens have the right to enter the building and get more details from related authorities on the deal to export the trash.” Another activist expressed astonishment at what she described “a cruel behavior of the security forces who tried to prevent them from storming the building where they demanded to meet with head of the CIB. Later National News Agency said that a delegation from the activists was granted a meeting with head of the CIB, and that the activists will determine the next step based on the outcome.A trash management crisis erupted when the Naameh landfill was closed in July 2015. The government's failure to find alternatives led to the piling up of garbage on the streets and in random locations, which raised health and environmental concerns and sparked unprecedented street protests against the entire political class. In December, the cabinet approved an export plan with representatives of Britain’s Chinook Urban Mining International firm and Holland’s Howa BV. The agreement drew concerns and doubts when some media reports claimed that Howa BV lacks experience in waste management.

Debate In Lebanon Surrounding Saudi Establishment Of Islamic Anti-Terrorism Alliance, Lebanon's Inclusion In It
By: E. B. Picali*
MEMRI/January 07, 2016 Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No.1220
http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/8934.htm
Introduction
At a press conference on December 15, 2015 at 3:00 a.m., Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman announced the establishment of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism, which includes 35 Arab and Muslim countries. He said that the alliance, which will be headquartered in Riyadh, is meant to coordinate these nations' efforts to combat terrorism on the military, security, ideological, and media levels. Bin Salman stressed that every country would contribute according to its ability and that the alliance was geared towards combating all forms of terrorism and not just ISIS. Addressing Syria and Iraq, bin Salman said that the alliance could operate against terrorist groups in those countries, but only in coordination with their "legitimate" authorities (without specifically explaining what this refers to) and the international community.
Conversely, Saudi Foreign Minister 'Adel Al-Jubeir said that the possibility of the alliance's involvement in ground operations in Syria must not be ruled out, and did not mention anyone's consent.[1]
Alongside Saudi Arabia, the alliance members include major regional Arab and Muslim countries such as Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan, Jordan, and Morocco. However, the notable absence of other important countries such as Iran, Syria, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman has created the impression that this is a Saudi attempt to establish an alliance against the resistance axis, which Iran leads, in order to invalidate Iran's claims that its involvement in the Arab world is with the purpose of combatting terrorism. Another potential reason for establishing the alliance is the recent wave of withering international criticism against Saudi Arabia, accusing it of being responsible for the emergence of the radical ideology of terrorist organizations and for being their financial backer. It is possible that the establishment of the alliance is a Saudi attempt to prove to the international community that it combats, rather than produces, terrorism.
Saudi Prince Muhammad bin Salman announces the establishment of the Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism (assawsana.com, December 15, 2015)
Much still remains unknown about the alliance. As of yet, it is unclear which organizations aside from ISIS fall under the definition of "terrorist organizations" that the alliance intends to combat. For example, does Hizbullah - which is on Saudi Arabia's list of terrorist organizations - fall under this category? Additionally, as stated, it is unclear to what "legitimate" authorities in Syria the Saudi Foreign Minister was referring. Other matters that remain unclear are the alliance's methods and means, its decision-making mechanisms, and more.
Another puzzling aspect is that the announcement of the alliance's establishment came suddenly, in the middle of the night, without advance notice by the Saudi defense minister, and without the presence of representatives from other member countries. Moreover, reports indicate that some countries announced as members of the alliance, such as Pakistan and Indonesia, had no prior knowledge of this.[2]
Lebanon's membership in the alliance is also a point of contention. While the Lebanese foreign ministry claimed to have had no prior knowledge of it, the office of Prime Minister Tammam Salam said that the Saudi declaration on Lebanon's inclusion in the alliance came after a phone conversation between the Saudi leadership and Salam himself, in which the latter approved the initiative.[3] In fact, the announcement on Lebanon's inclusion in the alliance sparked a fierce debate between the country's pro-Saudi and pro-Iranian camps.
This report will focus on the responses in Lebanon to the Saudi announcement of its inclusion in the Muslim Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism: The sweeping support of pro-Saudi Lebanese elements, particularly the Al-Mustaqbal stream led by Sa'd Al-Hariri; the criticism and even threats on the part of pro-resistance axis elements, mainly Hizbullah; and the conflict between the two.
This Is An Alliance In Support Of Terrorism; Such Decisions Require The Consent Of The Government And Parliament
The Saudi announcement that Lebanon had joined its anti-terrorism alliance infuriated Hizbullah, especially since it is on Saudi Arabia's list of terrorist organizations along with other groups supported by Iran such as Al-Hashd Al-Sha'abi in Iraq and Ansar Allah in Yemen. It should be mentioned that the Lebanese daily Al-Safir cited a knowledgeable source who said that during talks in New York on the eve of the December 2015 ratification of UN Security Council Resolution 2254 for a political solution in Syria, a certain Gulf state demanded to include Hizbullah, the Lebanese Amal movement, and the Syrian Ba'th party on the list of terrorist organizations fighting in Syria.[4]
Hizbullah's main grounds for opposing Lebanon's membership in the alliance is that the decision on such a move requires government approval; that the alliance is actually meant to support terrorism rather than fight it, and that Lebanon's participation would endanger the country's stability and unity.
On December 17, several days after the Saudi announcement, Hizbullah issued a statement stressing its outright opposition to Lebanon joining the alliance, claiming that Prime Minister Salam had given his consent "of his own personal volition, which does not bind anyone, since no prime minister can enter into a military alliance... without the consent of the government and the approval of the Lebanese parliament." The statement also added that due to these facts, Salam's consent had "no legal, political, or practical meaning."
Hizbullah's statement also questioned the alliance and its true goals: "This [the establishment of the alliance] is merely the response of Saudi Arabia and other countries to an American decision... This alliance was formed quickly and suspiciously, which raises many questions, chief among them being how worthy is Saudi Arabia to head an anti-terrorism alliance, given that it is responsible for extremist terrorist ideology, which it continues to adopt and support throughout the world. Everyone knows that Saudi Arabia conducts state terrorism, as it did in Yemen, and that it supports terrorist groups in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, and that some of its partners in this false alliance also support terrorism."[5]
Similar comments were made by Hizbullah's deputy secretary-general Sheikh Na'im Qassem, who said: "This alliance is meant to support terrorism, not combat it." He added: "Lebanon will certainly not be a part of it, and we will certainly not agree to assist Saudi Arabia, which stands accused and guilty of terrorism, [just] in order to cover up its hypocrisy." Qassem also said that "the age in which Saudi Arabia led countries to carry out its will has already ended."[6]
Hizbullah MP Nawaf Al-Moussawi added: "There is a well-known constitutional mechanism in place to approve Lebanon's joining the Islamic Alliance. Article 52 [of the Lebanese Constitution] determines that the president conducts negotiations and that the government [must] take a decision by a two-thirds majority and bring it to the approval of parliament. This means that [the process] must have three stages: The president, the government, and the parliament [but this decision did not meet those criteria]."[7]
Hizbullah Official: If This Alliance Was Established Against Us, They Should Beware Our Rage
The head of the Hizbullah bloc in the Lebanese parliament, MP Mohammad Raad, expressed total rejection "of Lebanon's participation in such a suspicious alliance" and even claimed that "participating in it endangers Lebanon's stability, unity, and security." He wondered: "What terrorism does the Islamic Alliance wish to combat?" and added: "The terrorist organizations that received support from most Gulf states and from some of Lebanon's political forces [i.e. the Al-Mustaqbal stream] are tied to the Gulf states."
Raad warned the Saudi founders of the alliance, saying: "If they think resistance is terrorism and if they wish to establish this alliance against us, they should beware our rage. If the purpose of declaring this alliance is to beatify their image and whitewash the crimes they committed when they supported takfiri terrorist groups, it should [be stated] that they have not repented in any way." He stated further: "Those who were involved in terrorism have no right to speak of terrorism..."[8]
Al-Mustaqbal Stream: Since When Does Hizbullah Consider The State's Opinion Or Ask For Its Permission?
Conversely, the Al-Mustaqbal stream led by Sa'd Al-Hariri, who is known for his pro-Saudi position - praised the establishment of the Islamic Alliance. Al-Hariri, who has been away from Lebanon for several years, issued a statement that read: "This is an historic step on the road to dealing with this political, security, and ideological problem [of terrorism], which has become a dangerous burden on the image of cultured Islam and humanity, and a threat to Islamic existence and coexistence with the world's societies." He added: "It is natural that the announcement comes from Riyadh, since responsibility for combating terrorism rests on the shoulders of Muslims, especially Arabs." Al-Hariri concluded his statement with praise and esteem for the Saudi leadership headed by King Salman, the crown prince and deputy crown prince.[9] Expectedly, the Al-Mustaqbal party also issued a statement praising Saudi Arabia for the move.[10]
The Al-Mustaqbal stream also launched barbs at Hizbullah and its attack on Saudi Arabia, claiming that Hizbullah's demand that such decisions go through proper legal channels borders on hypocrisy, since Hizbullah itself has always ignored this obligation, and in many cases disregards the state and its institutions and makes decisions on its own accord, as it did, for instance, regarding its military involvement in Syria.
On December 18, 2015, the Al-Mustaqbal stream issued a statement that read: "It is not surprising that Hizbullah took a harsh negative stance on the announcement of the establishment of the broad Islamic Alliance to Fight Terrorism, particularly since the announcement came from Saudi Arabia – and Hizbullah treats this kingdom as an enemy and does not miss any incident and any chance to attack it and harm its role and its efforts to defend the rights of Arabs and Muslims." This statement too accuses Hizbullah of hypocrisy, expressing wonderment at its "sudden discovery that such decisions require the consent of the government and the approval of parliament... It would have been best if Hizbullah had discovered [the need] for political, constitutional, and legal backing [for such steps] many years ago – namely when it claimed the [exclusive] right to bring members of the [Iranian] Revolutionary Guard [Corps] into the Beqa'a [Valley] and other areas [in Lebanon] to train its armed activists without the consent or knowledge of Lebanese authorities and without notifying them; or when it decided, on its own accord, to participate in the fighting in Syria while defying the government's decision [at the time] stating that Lebanon would not tie itself to regional conflicts[11] and [while challenging] the state's exclusive right to [bear] arms and use them, as well as make decisions regarding launching wars inside and outside [the country]."[12]
Lebanese Columnist: Hizbullah Opposes The Alliance Because Iran Does Not Really Wish To Combat ISIS
The previous day, columnist 'Ali Rabbah published an article in the Lebanese daily Al-Mustaqbal claiming that Hizbullah's opposition to the Islamic Alliance is rooted in Iran's fear that it will no longer be able to cynically exploit terrorism in its efforts to become the region's police. He wrote: "Why are Hizbullah and its backer [Iran] worried about the Islamic Alliance to Fight Terrorism? After all, Hizbullah [supposedly] believes that ISIS is a greater existential threat to the peoples of the region than Israel... We cannot ignore the fact that Iran... trades in the issue of combating terrorist groups for political purposes, using it to establish a number of goals in its current expansion in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. The truth behind the Iran plan has become clear. Apparently someone here does not [truly] desire to combat ISIS, but rather to use it as a scarecrow that frightens the West regarding Sunni terrorism, so that it can trade in [this fear] and sell it to local Christians and the international community as a pretext that leads to proposals to appoint Iran as the region's police."
According to Rabbah, Iran is also worried that, after concluding the struggle against ISIS, the Islamic Alliance will set its sights on Iranian proxies such as Shi'ite militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, since some of them are included on Saudi Arabia's and other countries' lists of terrorist organizations.[13]
Saudi Ambassador To Lebanon: Hizbullah Is The One Appropriating The Country's Decisions
The Saudis joined the attack on Hizbullah via their ambassador to Lebanon 'Ali Awadh Al-Asseri, who said on December 18: "It is strange that some of those voicing criticism of the kingdom's decision [to establish the alliance] are the same ones accused by Lebanese public opinion of ongoing harm to Lebanon's sovereignty and of appropriating the country's decisions." He continued to attack Hizbullah, albeit without naming it specifically: "Some elements tie themselves to dubious plans aimed entirely at creating schism in regional countries, divide the Arab ranks, and stoke sectarian rivalries."[14]
It should be mentioned that the following day, Al-Asseri stated that his country respects Lebanon's sovereignty and special circumstances and that it would not force any country to join the alliance, [15] despite the approval of Prime Minister Salam. This indicates Saudi understanding of Lebanon's political sensitivities vis-a-vis the Saudi-Iranian conflict, while also reflecting the obscure circumstances surrounding the establishment of the alliance.
*E. B. Picali is a research fellow at MEMRI.
Endnotes:
[1] Alarabiya.net, Al-Quds Al-Arabi (London), December 15, 2015.
[2] Al-Watan (Egypt), December 16, 2015; Ammonnews.net, December 18, 2015; Al-Atheer (Malaysia), December 18, 2015.
[3] Al-Safir (Lebanon), December 15, 2015; Al-Mustaqbal (Lebanon), December 16, 2015.
[4] Al-Safir (Lebanon), December 19, 2015.
[5] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), December 18, 2015.
[6] Nna-leb.gov.lb, December 19, 2015.
[7] Nna-leb.gov.lb, December 19, 2015.
[8] Almanar.com.lb, December 19, 2015.
[9] Al-Mustaqbal (Lebanon), December 16, 2015.
[10] Al-Mustaqbal (Lebanon), December 16, 2015.
[11] See MEMRI Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No. 842, Syria's Role In Lebanon's Conflagration, June 1, 2012.
[12] Nna-leb.gov.lb, December 18, 2015.
[13] Al-Mustaqbal (Lebanon), December 17, 2015.
[14] Al-Akhbar (Lebanon), December 19, 2015.
[15] Al-Mustaqbal (Lebanon), December 20, 2015.

Three Palestinians attempt stabbing attack in West Bank; assailants shot
Jesrusalem Post/January 07/16/Three Palestinian assailants attempted to carry out a stabbing attack Thursday night against IDF forces at the Gush Etizion junction in the West Bank, according to the military. IDF reservists guarding the Gush Etzion junction killed the three male Palestinian assailants who attempted to stab them. According to the IDF all three of the Palestinians were armed with knives. There were no injuries on the Israeli side. Earlier in the day the IDF arrested a Palestinian man with a knife near the Jewish building of Beit Hadassah. On Tuesday, a terrorist stabbed and lightly wounded an IDF reserve soldier at the flashpoint intersection. Security force shot dead the assailant.

The mountainous Arab Israeli gun problem has spiralled beyond control
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 7, 2016
The mountainous quantities of illegal weapons, run-of-the-mill and exotic, in the hands of Israeli Arabs have grown to unmanageable proportions. No Israeli civilian police, or even military force, has the scale of manpower required to mount raids in Israeli Arab population centers - ranging from Galilee in the North, the Triangle and Jaffa in the Center and the Bedouin of the Negev - for a comprehensive campaign to impound them – not even if backed by tanks and commando units.
It is pointless to call on all 1.5 million Arab, Bedouin, Druze and Circassian minority citizens to voluntarily surrender their guns. Almost every individual has at least one shooter. The accumulation would not shame any Middle East militia.
The authorities’ inability to deal effectively with this arsenal is not only shocking but has also made the Israeli underworld rich. And even more alarming, it provides a profitable link between terrorist organizations and both Israeli and Palestinian crime mobs and drug dealers. The failure to enforce order in some parts of the population, while other communities abide by the law, has created two parallel societies living by different rules.
The official data on the quantity of guns loose and unaccounted for are sketchy, bu the variety is hair-raising: grenade launchers; AT-3 Sagger and BGM-71 TOW antitank missiles; M-16 and Kalashnikov automatic rifles, submarine guns – mostly Uzis; heavy and light machine guns and mortars; explosive devices for remote detonation; concussion, gas and stun grenades; diverse ammunition; magazines; IDF uniforms; protective and bulletproof vests; night vision equipment; and much more.
The approximate black market price list we have obtained includes handguns – 15,000 shekels; grenades – 2,500 shekels; M-16 automatic rifles – 50,000 shekels; explosive devices (depending on size and power) 15,000-25,000 shekels; hand grenade – 500 shekels.
Arab Israeli leaders, especially their representatives in the Knesset, have vocally and repeatedly appealed to the police to collect the weapons loose in Arab villages and cities. They see their prevalence as a major cause of the violence and disorder rampant inside those communities. This is no doubt true, but there is also an element of hypocrisy in their demand, in view of their own failure to address - and even exploit - the underlying causes of the epidemic
1. Israeli Arabs customarily resort to the use of guns rather than the law to resolve their disputes and conflicts of interest.
2. It has finally been admitted that 90% of the weapons in illegal hands today were stolen from Israeli army depots, some by traffickers in uniform. Those soldiers were not averse to flogging arms to gangs capable of turning against their own units.
According to debkafile’s defense and counterterrorism sources, the remaining 10 percent, mostly handguns and submachine guns, are manufactured on underground production lines in the West Bank, Gaza or even within the Green Line in Israel. A small amount of the weapons is smuggled by land from the Sinai, Jordan and Lebanon.
3. The IDF's failure to properly guard its weapons and ammunition depots is stunning, scarcely illuminated by the figures the IDF has presented to various parliamentary committees: From 2010 to 2015, an average of only 100 weapons per year were officially stolen from army bases, military vehicles and the homes of soldiers.
However, army and police officers familiar with the figures say the number is tenfold, more like 1,000 pieces of weaponry stolen year by year.
Officers and enlisted men whose weapons were stolen receive only light penalties. However, robbing arms depots has become endemic, with Bedouin in the south making the Negev training bases their “home ground.”
They follow IDF units on exercises and steal anything lying about, even cooking utensils and sleeping bags.
There is a sour joke in IDF tank and artillery battalions, that every maneuver has its “camp followers” of Bedouin gun and ammunition thieves.
4. Internal Security Minister Gilad Erdan, addressing the problem in a Knesset debate on Jan. 6, said that a comprehensive police roundup of illegal guns in Arab communities would immediately raise the charge that Israel was persecuting the Arab minority. He was answering charges of negligence hurled by Arab Knesset Member Ahmad Tibi.
5. The symbiosis that has developed between regular crime mobs and terrorists further boosts the illicit gun traffic. The availability of weapons encourages serious crimes. The “crime families” most notorious for their uncontrolled use of gunfire are to be found embedded in the Arab community, including the mixed towns of Lod, Jaffa and the Arab Triangle towns. Some of these mob chiefs may also contribute their violent services to Palestinian terrorist organizations.
Their activities certainly have a detrimental effect on the majority of their societies who are law abiding and uninvolved in criminal pursuits.
The problem could become more dangerous if the Bedouin, Druze or Circassian communities decided to rise up against Israeli majority rule, because their sons enlist for service in the IDF, the police and the prisons service. They are armed from head to toe, highly trained as soldiers and may be infected with the religious or national fanaticism sweeping the region.
In any case, there is no chance of the illegal guns and arms in every Arab home and gang arsenal being relinquished voluntarily. It is no good looking to national Arab leaders to lead any effort to collect them, because its much more convenient and politically profitable to blame Israel’s national authorities for the violence fostered by a culture that has made gun possession rife and a status symbol.

Syria government to allow aid into besieged Madaya
Reuters, Beirut Thursday, 7 January 2016/Syria’s government on Thursday gave permission to the United Nations to deliver humanitarian aid to three besieged towns including Madaya near Damascus, the U.N. said. “The U.N. welcomes today’s approval from the Government of Syria to access Madaya, Fuaa and Kafraya and is preparing to deliver humanitarian assistance in the coming days,” a U.N. statement said.

In besieged Syrian town, peace talks seen as pointless
Tom Perry/Reuters, Beirut Thursday, 7 January 2016/Warnings of widespread starvation are growing as pro-government forces besiege an opposition-held town in Syria and winter bites, darkening the already bleak outlook for peace talks the United Nations hopes to convene this month.
The blockade of Madaya, near the border with Lebanon, has become a focal issue for Syrian opposition leaders who told a U.N. envoy this week they will not take part in talks with the government until it and other sieges are lifted.
At least 10 people have died of starvation in Madaya in the past six weeks, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says. Opposition activists say the number of dead is in the dozens although Reuters could not independently confirm the reports. “We were living on tree leaves, on plants, but now we are struggling in a snow storm and there are no more plants or leaves,” said Majed Ali, 28, an opposition activist who spoke to Reuters by phone from Madaya. “I was 114 kilos before the siege. Now I am 80.”
Madaya residents make do with water flavored, where available, with spices, lemon, salt and vinegar, said Abu Hassan Mousa, the head of an opposition council in Madaya. Where rice or powdered milk are available, the prices can reach some $300 a kilo, residents said. With half a meter of snowfall this week, furniture, doors and wooden fixtures and fittings are being burnt to heat homes, said Ali, the opposition activist.“Negotiations have no meaning all the time we are besieged, all the time we are hoping for a cup of milk for a child. What are we going to negotiate over? Our dead?” he said.
Months without aid
Blockades have been a common feature of the nearly five-year-old war that has killed an estimated 250,000 people. Government forces have besieged rebel-held areas near Damascus for several years and more recently rebel groups have blockaded loyalist areas including two villages in Idlib province.
The fate of Madaya, where the World Food Program (WFP) says the lives of 40,000 people are at risk, may be linked to those villages. The areas were all part of a local ceasefire agreement agreed in September but implementation has been halting.
The last aid delivery to Madaya, which happened in October, was synchronized with a similar delivery to the Shi’ite villages -- al-Foua and Kefraya. Ali described the people of Madaya as hostages held as a bargaining chip for al-Foua and Kefraya. Aid agencies were hoping for easier access to the area following the ceasefire deal concluded under U.N. supervision.
“WFP is deeply concerned about the reported humanitarian situation in Madaya, which has been besieged for many months, now threatening the lives of nearly 40,000 people,” WFP spokeswoman Bettina Luescher said in response to a question from Reuters. “Madaya was last reached on 17 October with 3,900 food rations -- enough to feed over 19,000 people for one month,” she said. “Since then, no more food assistance or humanitarian supplies made it to these areas as was planned.”A U.N. commission of inquiry has said that siege warfare has been used “in a ruthlessly coordinated and planned manner” in Syria’s civil war, with the aim of “forcing a population, collectively, to surrender or suffer starvation”.
The blockade of Madaya began about six months ago when the Syrian army and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, started a campaign to reestablish President Bashar al-Assad’s control over areas at the Syrian-Lebanese border, including the town of Zabadani. A source who is close to Damascus and familiar with the situation in Madaya denied civilians had been prevented from leaving, and said the number of people in the town had been exaggerated. But the Britain-based Observatory says 15 people including children had been killed while trying to flee, either shot dead or killed by landmines planted to enforce the blockade imposed by government forces and Hezbollah fighters.Syrian officials could not be reached for comment. Aid agencies say access to Madaya was requested six times in 2015, but provided only once.
Awaiting answers
A U.N. Security Council adopted on Dec. 18 setting out a road map for peace talks calls on the parties to allow aid agencies unhindered access throughout Syria, particularly in besieged and hard-to-reach areas. A newly formed opposition council set up to oversee negotiations has told U.N. envoy Staffan de Mistura that this must happen before the talks he plans to hold on Jan. 25.
They also told him that before negotiations, Assad’s government, which has military support from Russia and Iran, must halt the bombardment of civilian areas and barrel bombing, and release detainees in line with the resolution. “We find that it will not be possible to start negotiations while bombardments continue on civilian areas and residents,” Riad Nassan Agha, a member of the opposition body, told Reuters. “We must also show our people certain accomplishments.”
“We are awaiting answers from Mr Di Mistura.”Pro-government forces surrounding the town, believed by locals to be Hezbollah fighters, have offered food in exchange for weapons handed in by rebel fighters, residents say.
A spokesman for the International Committee of the Red Cross said it hoped to deliver aid to both Zabadani and Madaya, and al-Foua and Kefraya in the coming days. “We have been receiving quite concerning reports from Madaya, but also from al-Foua and Kefraya about the situation of the people there, as in all besieged areas in Syria,” Pawel Krzysiek, the spokesman, said.

Church Leader Backs Syria Campaign as Russia Marks Orthodox Christmas
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 07/16/The head of Russia's Orthodox Church justified the Kremlin's bombing campaign in Syria, calling it a "defensive war" in an interview released Thursday as the country marked Orthodox Christmas. Patriarch Kirill said Moscow's military strikes were necessary to protect Russia from "terrorism". "As long as the war is carried out in self-defense, then it is just," Kirill told state-run Rossiya 1 television channel. "All that is happening is a self-defensive, responsive action. In that sense, we can safely talk about it is a just struggle." The Kremlin launched a bombing campaign in Syria in late September at the request of its long-standing ally Syrian President Bashar Assad saying it was targeting jihadists who posed a threat to Russia. But the campaign has drawn condemnation from the West -- which accuses Moscow of bombing moderate groups to prop up Assad -- and allegations that it has caused mass civilian casualties. Russia's Orthodox Church enjoys close ties with the Kremlin and has seen its influence grow as conservative values have been increasingly promoted during President Vladimir Putin's 15 years in charge. Putin himself marked the holiday by attending the midnight service at the church in the central Tver region, some 150 kilometers (90 miles) northwest of Moscow, where his parents were reportedly christened. The strongman leader later praised the Orthodox Church and other Christian faiths for their "responsible service" in Russian society in a Christmas greeting published on the Kremlin website. "They take a constructive part in bringing up the younger generation, strengthening the institution of the family, motherhood and childhood," the statement said. "They are doing a lot to maintain harmony in relations between people of different ethnic groups and religions. This great work deserves sincere respect."

Syria Government to Allow Aid into Besieged Madaya
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 07/16/Syria's government gave permission Thursday for U.N. aid deliveries to three besieged towns, including Madaya near Damascus where people are reportedly starving to death, the U.N. said. "The U.N. welcomes today's approval from the Government of Syria to access Madaya, Fuaa and Kafraya and is preparing to deliver humanitarian assistance in the coming days," a U.N. statement said. It said there were "credible reports of people dying from starvation" in Madaya, including a 53-year-old man who reportedly perished on Tuesday. The three towns are part of a landmark six-month deal reached in September for an end to hostilities in those areas in exchange for humanitarian assistance. Access to Madaya and nearby Zabadani had been restricted by pro-regime forces, while Fuaa and Kafraya, in northwest Syria, are surrounded by anti-government fighters. Madaya last received humanitarian assistance in October but has since been inaccessible "despite numerous requests," according to the statement from the U.N.'s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Around 40,000 people, mostly civilians, live in the town in Damascus province. At least 10 people have died there from a lack of food and medicine, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based monitoring group. Social media users expressed outrage Thursday at images of what appeared to be Madaya residents looking extremely frail after months of little food. The U.N. said that over the past year, only 10 percent of its requested aid deliveries to hard-to-reach and besieged areas of Syria were approved and carried out.

Egypt: no one hurt in attack near Pyramids
The Associated Press, Cairo Thursday, 7 January 2016/An attacker fired birdshot at an Egyptian security post outside a hotel near the Giza Pyramids on Thursday morning, the Interior Ministry said. The ministry said no one was hurt in the incident at the Three Pyramids Hotel, but the attack damaged the hotel's facade and also a bus parked in front of the building. According to a ministry statement, the shooter was part of a group of about 15 people who threw flares at the hotel's security post. A suspect was arrested and police were still searching for the rest of the group, the statement said. It did not identify the arrested suspect. The motive for the attack was unclear and no one immediately claimed responsibility for it. However, a witness at the scene indicated the attack was more organized than the ministry described and that deadly weapons were used. "The first thing they fired was flares, and then they started firing at the bus. Later they started firing birdshot at the hotel and tried to throw Molotov cocktails at the bus," said Jaber Jabarin, an Arab Israeli citizen who was staying at the hotel and witnessed the attack. After throwing Molotov cocktails, Jabarin said the attackers "started firing at the hotel with live bullets." He described heavy, continuous gunfire. His account and the ministry's statement could not be immediately reconciled. In Jerusalem, Alon Lavi, a spokesman for Israel's Foreign Ministry, said the bus that was hit was in use by a group of visiting Arab Israelis but that no one was inside the bus at the time of the incident and that no Israelis were hurt. He said Israel was briefed on the incident by the Egyptian Foreign Ministry. The attack came as Egyptian's Coptic Orthodox Christians were celebrating the Orthodox Christmas in predominantly Muslim Egypt. Most Orthodox Christians follow the older, Julian calendar and celebrate Christmas on Jan. 7. In Egypt, thousands of policemen were deployed across Cairo and other cities to protect churches and Christian celebrations. The Egyptian government has for years been battling an insurgency by Islamic militants in the northern part of the Sinai Peninsula. Attacks on security forces there have significantly escalated after the military overthrew Islamist President Mohammed Mursi in 2013. There have also been attacks in the mainland.

Man Shot Dead Attacking Police on Charlie Hebdo Anniversary
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 07/16/ the bodyguard who was killed in the attack, said this week she has filed a lawsuit claiming that he was left vulnerable because the security around the newspaper had been reduced before the shootings. Charlie Hebdo has continued to raise ire, rejecting self-censorship in the wake of the attacks and working from ultra-secure offices in a top-secret location. On Wednesday it published a typically provocative special edition featuring a gun-toting God, sparking protests from the Vatican. The cover of the anniversary edition features a bloodstained, bearded God figure in sandals with a Kalashnikov rifle slung over his shoulder under the headline: "One year on: the killer is still at large."

Somalia Cuts Diplomatic Ties with Iran
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 07/16/Somalia said Thursday it had cut diplomatic ties with Iran amid a diplomatic crisis with Saudi Arabia. A statement from Somalia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the "decision to sever diplomatic ties" and gave Iranian diplomats 72 hours to leave the Horn of Africa nation. "This step has been taken after careful consideration and in response to the Republic of Iran's continuous interference in Somalia's internal affairs," the statement read, without giving further details. It comes days after Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic ties with Iran in response to an arson attack on its own embassy in Tehran by protesters infuriated by Riyadh's execution of a prominent Shiite cleric.Several Saudi allies have followed suit.

More than 50 Dead in Bombing at Libya Police School
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 07/16/A suicide truck bombing on a police school in Libya's city of Zliten killed more than 50 people Thursday, in the deadliest attack to hit the strife-torn country since its 2011 revolution. A bomber detonated an explosives-laden truck used for carrying water at a police training center in central Zliten at around 8:30 am (0630 GMT), a local security source told AFP. A witness in Zliten, a coastal city about 170 kilometers (100 miles) east of Tripoli, told AFP some 300 men, mainly coast guards, were inside the compound at the time. Health ministry spokesman Ammar Mohammed Ammar said 50 to 55 people had been killed and at least 100 wounded and that victims were being treated in several hospitals. Urgent calls were issued for blood donations. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack but the Islamic State group, which has been growing in power in Libya, has carried out many suicide bombings in the country. Libya descended into chaos after the 2011 overthrow of longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi and has had rival administrations since August 2014, when an Islamist-backed militia alliance overran Tripoli, forcing the government to take refuge in the east. The internationally recognized government condemned the attack as a "cowardly terrorist act" and called for the lifting of an arms embargo it says has prevented authorities from tackling IS. Meanwhile, a deputy defense minister for the Tripoli-based government, Mohammad Bashir al-Naas, vowed to avenge the attack. "The perpetrator is not known but he is a coward. He kills our sons from the shadows. We must avenge them and do everything possible to protect them," Naas told a press conference. The United Nations is pressing Libya's rival sides to implement a power-sharing deal agreed last month on forming a unity government. The U.N. envoy to Libya and Western governments called for unity in the wake of the attack, saying implementing the political agreement was crucial.
"I condemn in the strongest terms today's deadly suicide attack in Zliten, call on all Libyans to urgently unite in fight against terrorism," U.N. envoy Martin Kobler wrote on Twitter. EU policy chief Federica Mogherini also urged Libyans to back the unity deal. "The people of Libya deserve peace and security and... they have a great opportunity to set aside their divisions and work together, united, against the terrorist threat facing their country," she said. Italy, the former colonial power in Libya, offered its support in helping to bring stability. "In the face of this terrorist threat, the first answer must be unity among Libyans," Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni said. "It is urgent that the recently signed political agreement be implemented." France also condemned the attack and called on "all Libyan parties to quickly form a national unity government... that would be a partner for the international community in the face of terrorism." World powers fear Libya could descend further into chaos and become an IS stronghold on Europe's doorstep. In a report to the U.N. Security Council in November, International Criminal Court chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda said that IS had been responsible for at least 27 car and suicide bombings in Libya in 2015. The group claimed responsibility for suicide car bombings in the eastern town of Al-Qoba in February that killed at least 40 people. In recent days, IS has launched a series of attacks on oil facilities in eastern Libya, pushing east from its coastal stronghold of Sirte. Officials have warned of crippling consequences for the country if the jihadists manage to seize control of Libya's oil resources. Calls have been growing for a possible foreign military intervention to bring stability to Libya and contain IS, which is reported to have at least 3,000 fighters in the country. Mohamed Eljarh, a Libya analyst with the Atlantic Council, said it was unlikely the latest attack would boost unity efforts. "This has not been the case in the past, even when IS was expanding and the scale of attacks was intensifying," he said. "Despite IS's evident presence in Libya, various political groups are still consumed with their struggle for power and control."

Blair Urged Gadhafi to Find 'Safe Place', Reveal Transcripts
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 07/16/Former British prime minister Tony Blair urged Moammar Gadhafi to stand aside and find a bolthole in the early days of the Libyan uprising, telephone transcripts released Thursday showed. Blair urged the Libyan dictator to stop the violence, start a process of change, stand aside, resolve the situation peacefully and keep communications open between them. Gadhafi insisted Libya was under attack from sleeper cells from the Al-Qaida terror network who wanted to take north Africa and attack Europe -- and if Western forces intervened, Libya would end up "like Iraq". "If you have a safe place to go you should go there because this will not end peacefully," Blair warned. The transcripts cast light on Gadhafi's thinking as the uprising began to escalate. They were published by the British parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, which is examining the Western intervention in Libya's civil war and Britain's options now concerning the troubled country. Committee chair Crispin Blunt said they would consider "whether Gadhafi's prophetic warning of the rise of extremist militant groups... was wrongly ignored" due to his "otherwise delusional" world view. Evidence suggests "Western policymakers were rather less perceptive than Gadhafi about the risks of intervention," he said. The committee quizzed Blair in December on his relationship with Gadhafi, after which the ex-premier, who was in office between 1997 and 2007, provided the phone transcripts released Thursday. The uprising that overthrew Gadhafi's regime began in mid-February 2011. The two calls from Blair were made on February 25, 2011, the second after Blair reported back to US and European Union figures. Gadhafi fled Tripoli that August and was killed on October 25. Libya has since plunged into lawlessness, with the country splitting into two warring factions. Though out of office, Blair had influence with Gadhafi as his 2004 so-called "deal in the desert" brought Libya in from the cold as Tripoli scrapped its chemical weapons. Gadhafi claimed Al-Qaida cells had been attacking police stations, saying: "They want to control the Mediterranean and then they will attack Europe." Blair said: "The way to deal with this is the leader says and makes clear he wants a peaceful outcome. "The use of airplanes to attack cities and the use of force against civilians -- this has to stop."In the second call, Gadhafi said he was preparing to "arm the people" for a battle against "colonization". "If you want to reap Libya we are ready to fight, it will be like Iraq," he said. Blair urged Gadhafi to take the initiative and lead a peaceful transition process. "I repeat the statement that people have said to me, if there is a way that he (Gadhafi) can leave he should do so now," Blair said. "If we don't find a way out in the next few hours I don't know what will happen. "This is the last chance to resolve this peacefully." The conversation ends with Gadhafi saying "just leave us alone" and Blair urging him to "keep the lines open".

Shots Fired at Egypt Tourist Hotel, No One Hurt
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 07/16/A gang of youths hurled fireworks and fired birdshot at police guarding a hotel near Cairo's pyramids Thursday where Arab Israelis were staying without hurting anyone, officials and witnesses said. The motive for the attack on the Three Pyramids Hotel was unclear. The interior ministry said unknown assailants had gathered outside the hotel and carried out the attack, which it said targeted police guarding the hotel, who fired back. One of the attackers was arrested, it added.Hotel employee Yasser Fakhreddin said "15 to 20 young persons wearing masks threw fireworks and fired birdshot at the glass facade of the hotel as well as the windows of an empty bus waiting to pick up the Arab Israeli tourists". A security official who declined to be named said 40 Arab Israelis had been due to board the bus but were still inside the hotel when the attack took place. An AFP photographer said bits of the facade and the bus's windows had been broken. Egypt, which has fought several wars with Israel, is one of only two Arab nations, along with Jordan, to have signed a peace treaty with the Jewish state. The country has been roiled by mainly jihadist violence since the army ousted Islamist president Mohamed Morsi in 2013. However, the attacks, many of them deadly, have focused on security forces in reprisal for a fierce crackdown on Morsi supporters. The attack came as the country's Coptic Christian minority was celebrating Christmas. Police have been out in force across Egypt to protect churches during the holiday period.

Qatar Recalls Ambassador to Iran
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 07/16/Qatar has recalled its ambassador to Iran following an attack on the Saudi Arabian embassy in Tehran, state media in Doha said on Wednesday. "Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs recalled today Qatar's Ambassador to Tehran following the attacks on the Embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Tehran and general consulate in Mashhad," said foreign ministry director, Khalid bin Ibrahim al-Hamar, quoted by the Qatar News Agency. The response by Doha is similar to action taken by other countries in the Gulf following the attack on the Saudi missions, carried out by protesters angry at Riyadh's execution of prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have broken off diplomatic ties with Iran in response and Kuwait has recalled its ambassador.

Rouhani Wants Urgent Case against Saudi Embassy Suspects
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 07/16/President Hassan Rouhani wrote to Iran's judiciary chief Wednesday urging a quick and conclusive case against 50 suspects accused of involvement in the storming of Saudi Arabia's embassy in Tehran. The letter to Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani, head of the judiciary, was posted on Rouhani's website. It came as the crisis between Tehran and Riyadh over the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric showed little sign of abating. Rouhani requested that the file involving those accused of setting fire to the embassy, as well as others detained after a similar attack on Saudi Arabia's consulate in the second city of Mashhad, be acted on immediately. "Once and for all such assaults on the country's security, an insult to the establishment's authority and position, should be prevented by punishing perpetrators and those who ordered this blatant crime," said the letter. The president, a moderate elected in 2013, condemned the violence early Sunday but his statement and the speedy arrests did not stop Saudi Arabia from severing diplomatic relations later that day. Calling the incidents "totally unjustifiable", Rouhani has since been followed by numerous top officials and clerics who have also hit out at the attack for damaging Iran's reputation. Judicial officials have said the 50 people arrested include the alleged leaders of the attacks. Longstanding tensions between Iran, the dominant Shiite Muslim power in the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia, its Sunni rival, erupted into a full-blown row Saturday when Riyadh executed cleric Nimr al-Nimr. Saudi authorities had previously accused Nimr, a leading figure among the kingdom's Shiite minority, of stoking sedition.

Iran Accuses Saudi Arabia of Hitting Embassy in Yemen Air Strike
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 07/16/Saudi jets "deliberately" struck Iran's embassy in Yemen in an air raid that wounded staff, Tehran's foreign ministry said Thursday, as tensions between the two regional powers mounted. "This deliberate action by Saudi Arabia is a violation of all international conventions that protect diplomatic missions," foreign ministry spokesman Hossein Jaber Ansari was quoted as saying by state television."The Saudi government is responsible for the damage caused and for the situation of members of staff who were injured," Ansari added, without specifying when the alleged strike took place.

Iran Accuses Saudi of Air Strike on Yemen Embassy
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 07/16/Iran on Thursday accused Saudi warplanes of deliberately bombing its embassy in Yemen, in a new escalation of diplomatic tensions that have reverberated across the Middle East. Shiite-dominated Iran also announced a ban on imports of all products from its Sunni-ruled rival, following a dramatic chill in relations that has triggered international alarm. It comes days after Saudi Arabia broke off diplomatic ties with Iran in response to an arson attack on its own embassy in Tehran by protesters infuriated by Riyadh's execution of a prominent Shiite cleric. Tehran said an unspecified number of embassy staff had been wounded in the raid on the rebel-held Yemeni capital Sanaa, which has been targeted by months of air strikes by a Saudi-led Arab coalition. "This deliberate action by Saudi Arabia is a violation of all international conventions that protect diplomatic missions," Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Hossein Jaber Ansari said, quoted by state television. "The Saudi government is responsible for the damage caused and for the situation of members of staff who were injured," Ansari added, without specifying when the alleged strike took place or the seriousness of the injuries. "The Islamic republic reserves the right to pursue its interests in this matter," he said.
Iran also announced that a ban on Iranians traveling to the Saudi holy city of Mecca for the umrah pilgrimage would remain in place indefinitely.Longstanding frictions between the Middle East's foremost Sunni and Shiite Muslim powers exploded into a full-blown diplomatic crisis at the weekend when Riyadh executed Shiite cleric and activist Nimr al-Nimr along with 46 others. Nimr's death unleashed a wave of anger across the Shiite world, including in Iran where protesters stormed and set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran and consulate in the second city of Mashhad. Iran denounced the attacks on the Saudi missions, but the repercussions quickly rippled across the region with Saudi allies Bahrain, Sudan and Djibouti also cutting diplomatic ties with Tehran. The United Arab Emirates downgraded relations with Iran while Kuwait and Qatar recalled their ambassadors.
The Yemen conflict, which pits the pro-Iranian Huthi Shiite rebels against pro-government forces backed by Riyadh and other Gulf Arab states, is one of the main sources of dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran. They also support opposing sides in Syria, where Tehran has provided military assistance to its close ally President Bashar Assad against rebel groups, some backed by Saudi Arabia.
The growing tensions have heaped doubt on a U.N.-backed plan that foresees talks between the Syrian sides this month in a bid to end a war that has claimed more than a quarter of a million lives. The roadmap, unanimously adopted by the U.N. Security Council, calls for the establishment of a transitional government within six months and elections within 18 months. The Iran-Saudi crisis also threatens a fragile U.N.-backed initiative to end the war in Yemen, where the world body says at least 2,795 civilians have been killed since March. U.N. envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed has called for a new round of talks on January 14 but the sides have yet to confirm that they will attend. At the same time the row has dealt another blow to the unity of the OPEC oil cartel, which includes both Iran and Saudi Arabia, at a time when a glut of crude on world markets has sent prices plunging. The growing Middle East tensions have further reduced expectations of any action by OPEC to try to shore up oil prices.With fears of weaker Chinese demand also mounting, New York's main crude contract slid to a 12-year low of $32.10 a barrel on Thursday.

Deadly Istanbul Airport Incident was Mortar Attack
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 07/16/A mortar attack was the cause of a deadly incident on December 23 at Istanbul's Sabiha Gokcen airport that left one person dead and damaged several planes, Turkish prosecutors said on Thursday. Four mortar shells were fired from a forested area around two kilometers (1.25 miles) from the airport, prosecutors said in a statement carried by the Anatolia news agency. A Kurdish group calling itself the Freedom Falcons of Kurdistan had claimed the action as revenge for the Turkish army's relentless military campaign in the Kurdish-dominated southeast. But two weeks after the incident, this was the first official statement confirming an attack. Airport cleaner Zehra Yamac, 30, died of head wounds while five planes suffered slight damage as a result of shrapnel from an explosion. "The investigation has revealed that four mortar shells were fired at around 0215 (0015 GMT) from a wooded area about two kilometers from the airport," the statement said. "Three of the shells landed on the apron landed next to each other while the other landed on a different area," it said, adding that it was "fragments of shrapnel" from the shells that had hit the nearby planes and the cleaning worker.
It said the forested area was still being examined to determine what the specific target was and who was behind the attack. The Freedom Falcons of Kurdistan (TAK) said in a statement on December 26 that the airport attack was a response to the "fascist attacks that turn Kurdish cities into ruins." The attack came as Turkey wages an all-out offensive against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), with military operations backed by curfews ongoing to flush out the rebels from several southeastern urban centers. Turkish officials say the TAK is a front for PKK attacks on civilian targets, but the PKK claims TAK is a splinter group over which it has no control. There is not believed to have been any precedent for a mortar attack on an airport in Istanbul.In a second statement on December 30, the TAK warned that the Sabiha Gokcen attack was just the start of a new wave of assaults. It said this was revenge for the jail conditions of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan -- held on the Imrali prison island in the Sea of Marmama -- and military operations in Kurdish cities. "This is just the beginning of a new war we have launched against the Imrali torture system targeting our leader and the mass killing of the Kurdish people by the fascist dictatorship," it said. Sabiha Gokcen airport, on the Asian side of Istanbul, is the second international airport in the city after much larger Ataturk airport on the European side. Sabiha Gokcen hosts flights both to domestic and numerous international destinations often with budget airlines but also national flag carrier Turkish Airlines. It is now fully owned by Malaysian Airports Holding which completed the acquisition of the remaining shares in the airport this year.

Germany Must Have Frank Talk about Integration, Says Merkel
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 07/16/Chancellor Angela Merkel said Thursday Germany must have a "fundamental" debate about how to integrate newcomers, as police identified 16 people suspected of a shocking rash of sexual assaults blamed on migrants. As outrage grew in Germany over the assaults, which included two alleged rapes and several accounts of groping during New Year's Eve festivities in Cologne, Merkel said citizens were right to raise serious questions. She pledged strong action and stressed that "we must also speak again about the cultural fundamentals of our co-existence". Some 121 complaints have been filed so far, with police saying they are investigating "16 young men... mostly of North African origin" although no one has yet been charged. Investigators are trawling through CCTV footage and examining witness accounts to determine whether the suspects were implicated, police added. About three-quarters of the cases involved sexual offenses, while others related to theft or bodily harm. Welcoming the fact that large numbers of alleged victims have come forward, Merkel said there were "very serious questions that go beyond Cologne" for Germany. The attacks have shown that there is in "some quarters, contempt for women," she said. "We need to confront that with utmost determination," Merkel said, adding that she did not believe that the cases were isolated. Although authorities have said there are no indications that the perpetrators of the assaults were asylum seekers, critics of Merkel's open-door approach to those fleeing war have seized on the opportunity to draw a link. With debate mounting over whether to make it easier to expel convicted asylum seekers, Merkel vowed to consider further action. "We need to re-examine if everything necessary has been done with regards to expulsions to send a clear signal to those who do not respect our law." The assaults plaguing the Rhineland city during New Year's festivities were not isolated, with the northern port city of Hamburg also hit. Some 70 complaints of sexual assaults have been filed, Hamburg police said, with 23 of those victims also reporting that they'd been robbed. Witnesses in Cologne said groups of 20-30 young, intoxicated men out of a crowd of about 1,000 people had surrounded victims, assaulted them and in several cases robbed them. On Thursday, Bild newspaper and Der Spiegel online quoted an internal police report detailing how officers were powerless to hinder the terrifying rampage on New Year's Eve. "The officers were unable to prevent all events, assaults, crimes -- there were just too many at the same time," according to the police report. Both victims and witnesses were threatened, it said, describing unaccompanied women as "running a veritable gauntlet of heavily drunk men in a scene that was indescribable". Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere warned that foreigners who commit serious crimes "must assume they will be deported", including asylum seekers even though there are strict laws surrounding their expulsion. German law requires a conviction of at least three years in prison before an asylum seeker can be forcibly returned while his or her application for refuge is being examined. The individual must also not face threats in his or her country of origin. But de Maiziere said: "We will have to discuss if we should change" these rules that are in line with the U.N. Geneva Convention and European Human Rights Convention. But the Social Democrats, junior partners in Merkel's left-right "grand coalition", argued against any changes to the law. The SPD's deputy chief, Ralf Stegner, told Die Welt newspaper that "we need neither changes to fundamental rights for asylum nor to the Geneva Convention on refugees." He also warned that constantly "reacting to current public moods is not a responsible manner of governance." In a bid to calm tensions, Justice Minister Heiko Maas said that asylum seekers with convictions of one year can already be expelled -- although a grace period must be given to the individual to leave German territory on his own accord, failing which he would be forcibly returned.

Minister Dion condemns North Korean nuclear detonation claims
January 06/2016 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement:
“We unequivocally condemn the behaviour of North Korea, which today claimed to have detonated a nuclear weapon.
“North Korea’s continued violations of its international obligations pose a grave threat to international peace and security, and particularly to the stability of the region.
“Any nuclear testing by North Korea would be an illegal and provocative action. If confirmed, this action would be not only a violation of the clear international norm against nuclear testing but a direct breach of unanimous United Nations Security Council resolutions 1718 (2006), 1874 (2009), 2087 (2013) and 2094 (2013), which ban further nuclear testing by North Korea and include a range of sanctions.
Canada will remain engaged with the international community in response to North Korea’s actions. We support efforts to forge multilateral solutions to enhance security in the Asia-Pacific region.”

The joy of sects
Michael Young/Now Lebanon/January 07/16
In recent days there has been considerable debate over how rational was the Saudi decision to execute the Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, since the potentially destructive consequences were always evident. The wisdom of the move was doubtless questionable, but in no way was it irrational, in light of the regional challenges the Al-Saud family is facing today. Indeed, both the Saudis and Iran, in constantly playing on sectarian polarization, are in a no-lose situation. What the Saudis were accused of doing the Iranians have done just as much. Both have regarded sectarianism as a useful weapon to mobilize entire communities in the fight against one another; and the regimes in the two countries can only gain, at least in the short term. The execution of Sheikh Nimr was designed to send a number of messages, including warning the Saudi Shiite community against engaging in internal dissent. It was also a way of covering for the vast majority of executions that day, this time of Sunni militants, with 43 of those put to death being members of Al-Qaeda.
Less likely is the argument that the executions were somehow designed to detract from the spending cuts the Saudi government is implementing because of its financial crisis. After all, economic discontent takes time to build, is usually deep, and cannot be offset through the killing of one or a few men.
In fact the Saudi regime has profited. The rift with Iran, which the Saudis accelerated after attacks against Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran, forced everyone to take sides. Several Gulf states and Sudan have severed ties with the Islamic Republic. In such an atmosphere the legitimacy of the Saudi regime, as a leader of the world’s Sunnis, was only enhanced.
This can only make resolutions of the region’s crises more complicated, certainly. But to the Saudis the issue goes beyond this war or that. The regime feels existentially threatened by Iranian moves—whether it is justified or not—and only by exacerbating the situation as it has can it hope to reshuffle the deck, oblige its allies to take a firmer position in its favor, thereby allowing it to bargain from a position of strength. The Saudis are well aware of how regional conditions are developing to their disadvantage. The war in Yemen has not been going well. Strangely, the regime seems to have forgotten how it managed to turn Yemen into a quagmire for the Egyptian army in 1962-1967. The more they destroy Yemen, the more the Saudis are creating a treacherous failed state on their own border, which can only threaten the kingdom itself.
In Syria events are equally unsettling. It is becoming clear to the Saudis that the Obama administration’s focus on defeating ISIS is gradually pushing it to take a position more in line with Russia than with regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Already, the Americans have taken an ambiguous position over Bashar al-Assad, saying that his departure was no longer a precondition for the start of a Syrian peace process.
More worrisome, the tide of public opinion in the West has turned solidly against both the Saudis and the Turks, amid a growing perception that they are assisting the most extremist groups in Syria, including ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra. With Russia trying to cut off rebel supply lines between Turkey and Syria, and Moscow and Washington reportedly collaborating in backing a coalition of Kurdish and Arab forces opposed to ISIS, the Saudis can see that they are becoming increasingly isolated in Syria. To the Saudi regime the only available outlet is to rally Sunni public opinion and regain the initiative. The confrontation with Iran does precisely that. To the argument that this approach will only exacerbate sectarian animosities, the Saudis would respond that the region has long moved beyond that stage. Nor was it ever really in doubt that the Saudis, faced with a much more populous Iran allied with a plethora of local armed groups in the region, would fail to exploit the sectarian card against Tehran.
Where the Saudis will have to be careful, however, is not to be swallowed by the very forces they have helped unleash. The Saudi royal family has long remained in power through an effective bargain agreed with the clerical leadership, particularly the Al ash-Sheikh, the kingdom’s leading religious family. Yet a good part of that contract has entailed acceding to a Wahhabi doctrine that has influenced some of the most radical Islamist groups. In an environment of increasing sectarian hostilities the extremist are bound to gain. And if or when they do they may seek to sweep aside the Saudi royal family and lead the campaign themselves. That the Saudi regime felt a need to execute Sheikh Nimr to alleviate the impact of the larger number of executions of Sunni extremists was hardly a reassuring sign. It means that at a time of regional sectarian antagonism, it cannot afford to act too strongly against extremists who may have support at home.
Nor is it worthwhile to blame only Saudi Arabia. Iran, too, has played on sectarian solidarity--in Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen. Doing so reinforces the Islamic Republic’s bona fides as leader of the Shiite world. Moreover, with Iranian parliamentary elections scheduled for next month, further sectarian polarization may well benefit the country’s hard-liners, who fear a victory by the candidates gathered around President Hassan Rouhani. In the overall picture, both Saudi Arabia and Iran are taking risks. Sooner or later they will have to arrive at a modus vivendi. But in the interim their actions are everything but irrational.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star newspaper. He tweets @BeirutCalling.

Will Iran suspend hajj pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia?
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
After Saudi Arabia severed ties with Iran, the chairman of Iran’s Hajj and Pilgrimage Organization, Saeed Ohadi, said that the decision to continue or suspend hajj travel to Mecca and Medina would ultimately be up to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Ohadi said that at the moment, plans for the next hajj pilgrimage are taking place as scheduled and nothing has been changed. After the Saudi announcement that it was cutting ties with Iran, pictures surfaced online of Saudi officials removing the sign of the office of pilgrims affairs in Mecca belonging to Iran, and some Iranian social media users began to call for a boycott of the hajj, which will take place in September. Iranian member of parliament Mohammad Ali Esfanani, spokesman for the parliament’s Judicial and Legal Committee, said the termination of diplomatic relations means that the hajj should also be suspended. The hajj pilgrimage is mandatory for Muslims who are able to afford it. Umrah pilgrimage, which is not mandatory and can be undertaken at any time of the year, was suspended in April after two Iranian boys were sexually assaulted by Saudi security at Jeddah airport. Esfanani said that while the hajj is mandatory, it can be excused when there are difficult circumstances. He rejected the idea of having another country handle visa issues for the hajj. This is not the first time there have been calls for suspending Iranian participation in the hajj. Esfanani said that Iran should have first cut diplomatic ties in September after a stampede in the Saudi city of Mina killed 461 Iranian pilgrims. According to Saudi officials, only 769 people total were killed, but according to The Associated Press, over 2,400 people died. Ohadi said that after the stampede, 79 Iranians were buried in Mecca, but that the families of 37 of those buried there requested that their bodies be returned to Iran. So far, Saudi Arabia has returned 10 of the bodies. Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut ties with its regional rival Iran came after protesters stormed the Saudi Embassy in Tehran in reaction to the execution of Shiite activist Nimr al-Nimr. While Iranian officials have condemned the attack on the Saudi Embassy and arrested over 40 individuals involved, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir announced that Saudi Arabia will cut all air traffic and commercial ties between the countries and that Saudi citizens will be barred from traveling to Iran.  Jubeir, however, added that Iranian pilgrims will still be welcome to travel to Mecca and Medina. Iranians wishing to do so will presumably have to pay the additional cost of flying to the United Arab Emirates first rather than flying directly to Saudi Arabia. Ohadi said that despite Jubeir’s comments that Iranian pilgrims are still welcomed, he still has not heard anything from the Saudis' hajj organization office. The year 2015 was a tragic year for Iranian pilgrims. In addition to the Jeddah airport attack and the Mina stampede, on Sept. 14 a crane crash killed over 100 people, eight of them Iranian, including a top scientist. The last time Iran and Saudi Arabia suspended diplomatic ties was in 1987, when Iranian protesters on the hajj clashed with Saudi security. Saudi Arabia drastically reduced the number of permitted pilgrims, causing Iran to suspend hajj travel for three years. It was not until 1991 that relations were resumed and Iranian pilgrims were allowed to return in their previous numbers.

How will Saudi-Iranian crisis affect the region?
Ali Hashem/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
The new year seems to have opened yet another chapter on Middle Eastern instability, as Saudi Arabia executed 47 prisoners including popular Saudi Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr, whom it accused of "foreign meddling." The beheadings opened a chasm with Iran on one side and most of the Arab Gulf states on the other.After the Jan. 2 executions, Iranian protesters stormed the Saudi Embassy annex in Tehran. Though Tehran publicly denounced the raid, Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic ties with Iran the next day. Iran responded in kind, expelling Saudi diplomats.
Diplomatic ties were the only binds left between the countries, following the crisis in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, which took relations to their worst days. Now there are no ties left between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates downgraded its diplomatic representation in Iran to charge d’affaires. However, “In practice, we had no real diplomatic relations in recent years,” an Iranian diplomat told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. The diplomat elaborated on Riyadh officials' decision to suspend diplomatic relations with Iran, saying, “Iran is not their problem. [Iran is just] an excuse to justify their iron-fist policies in the region since 2011.”Nimr’s execution, unlike his arrest in 2012, did not stir remarkable protests in his stronghold, Qatif, in eastern Saudi Arabia, home of the Saudi Shiite minority. This might be due to the tight security measures that were taken by Saudi authorities, who are reported to have killed one protester Jan. 3 and injured another when a group of angry Nimr supporters burned tires. Iran and Saudi Arabia are fighting two main proxy wars in Syria and Yemen, where thousands of people are being killed. The resistance bloc is backed by Tehran, with Riyadh backing the moderation bloc. In Iraq, both parties disagree on who should have a role and what those roles should be, and now, on how the war with the Islamic State (IS) should be fought. The Saudis have concerns over the Iranian role in Iraq — mainly the support given to the Popular Mobilization Units and other Shiite militant groups — while the Iranians accuse Saudis of being the main supporter of terrorism.
In Lebanon, a war of words dominates the scene but seems to be, at the moment, under control. The country — which has been without a president since May 2014 — is divided between the pro-Saudi Future Movement and pro-Iran Hezbollah, and both, despite exchanging harsh statements every now and then, are meeting regularly. In Bahrain, the Shiite opposition seems to be under heavy pressure from the Saudi-backed royal family. For four years, the opposition in the tiny Gulf kingdom has been demonstrating, demanding reforms and partnership. The state, along with its Saudi allies, accuses the opposition of being backed by Iran and, for this reason, arrested its main figures. Saudi Arabia seems headed toward escalation, announcing Jan. 4 that it was suspending flights and trade with Iran and calling for an Arab League meeting to take further steps. “The Saudis seem to have planned their action and reaction all together,” another Iranian government official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “They knew this wouldn't go away without a minimum reaction. ... They were going to sever ties and pressure other countries to follow suit. For years, Iran lived in isolation and our country is better than many other countries in the region, so what is going to change?”
Iranian officials issued several statements and speeches condemning Nimr's execution, and though some of the commentary was very harsh, that is all they did. There was nothing to be done but for the Iranian side to express its dismay and condemnation of the Saudi act — mainly since Nimr was the leader of the Shiite minority in Saudi Arabia and an ayatollah, which means he could issue Islamic fatwas and edicts. “[The Saudis] try to fabricate enemies to divert attention from their structural domestic and regional challenges,” the first Iranian diplomat said. When asked if there might be a solution soon, he said, “No, and we are not happy because this hurts us all. But the Saudis are gambling, and they seem to be looking for a fight because they are losing somewhere else.” The main questions now, with Saudi-Iranian relations at their worst levels, are how this will affect the region and where the two regional superpowers are going to settle their accounts. The first possible indication was Saudi Arabia’s decision to end the truce in Yemen. Several warplanes resumed airstrikes on the Houthi Ansar Allah rebel movement close to Iran, putting negotiations between the latter and Yemen's pro-Saudi President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi in danger. If things continue this way, there is not likely to be a next round of talks and, if there is, a deal might be very hard to reach.
In Syria, while the war continues on the ground, a political path is taking place under the auspices of the United States and Russia. The developments between Saudi Arabia and Iran might halt the already-slow and tiny progress and complicate the efforts, especially if both sides decide to use the Syrian arena to settle their accounts. Some Arab journalists have suggested that Nimr's execution was in fact due to a Syrian incident, namely the Dec. 25 killing of Zahran Alloush, a Saudi-affiliated commander of the Jaish al-Islam Islamist coalition. The journalists say Saudi Arabia wanted to take revenge for his death by killing an Iranian-affiliated symbol in the same rank of Alloush, and Nimr was their best choice. That theory presents several questions. One is, why execute Nimr instead of Ahmed Ibrahim al-Mughassil, head of the Saudi Hezbollah (al-Hejaz) Party, who Riyadh says is responsible for the Khobar bombing and of being an Iranian arm? Also, why carry out the execution now, and did the Saudis study the implications not only for bilateral relations but also for the whole region? It is fair to say the region — even the whole world — is concerned over the Saudi-Iranian crisis. The United States, Russia, the European Union and several Islamic countries are exerting efforts to contain the situation, which might not only harm the region's politics, security and economy, but might also have dangerous implications for every Muslim around the world — given both countries’ influence on political and sectarian groups and the level of incitement fueled by the war in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. The first Saudi-Iranian collision told the world a bit about what might happen if this crisis takes another step up.

Saudi-Iranian crisis complicates Ankara’s regional plans
Semih Idiz/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
Rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have put Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) on the spot again, providing a fresh example of how its Islamist/Sunni-driven “strategic plans” for the Middle East can be undermined by unforeseen developments. Pressure began building after the Saudis beheaded 47 prisoners, including popular Shiite cleric and critic Nimr al-Nimr, on Jan. 2. This latest, and to date most dangerous, crisis between Saudi Arabia and Iran began only days after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Riyadh for talks with King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud aimed at increasing cooperation on regional issues, most notably on Syria. Erdogan’s visit was crowned by the establishment of a “Strategic Cooperation Council” between the two countries for that purpose.
The trip followed Ankara’s decision to participate in the Saudi-led Islamic Military Alliance announced in mid-December by Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said after the Saudi announcement that Turkey looked “favorably” on the alliance, which he characterized as “a step in the right direction by Islamic countries.” He said the alliance will counter efforts to correlate Islam and terrorism. The composition of the 34-nation alliance, however, has led some analysts to see it more as a Sunni coalition through which Saudi Arabia aims to check and reduce Iran’s regional influence.
Providing a rare example of concurrence, Turkey's decision to join the coalition has elicited criticism from both secularist and Islamist commentators in Turkey, who are now warning the government against becoming embroiled in the dispute between Riyadh and Tehran. All these developments also come at a time of tension between Turkey and Iran over Syria, where they support opposing sides. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani criticizes Sunni powers, especially Saudi Arabia but including Turkey, for supporting forces fighting against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. "Does the destruction of Syria lead to the strengthening of Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates or other countries? Who is pleased by Syria's destruction, other than Israel?" Rouhani said during a Dec. 21 news conference in Tehran. Erdogan in turn accused Iran of again fomenting sectarian divisions in the region by supporting Assad. “If Iran did not stand behind Assad for the sake of sectarian gains, maybe we would not be talking about Syria today,” Erdogan said during a Dec. 27 speech in Istanbul. Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been at odds over Ankara’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and Riyadh’s backing of the military coup in Egypt in 2013, which toppled President Mohammed Morsi. Istanbul and Riyadh have, nevertheless, found room for agreement in Syria in recent months, especially after the death of Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud in January 2015.
Both Turkey and Saudi Arabia are deeply unhappy that Assad is still in power and are lukewarm toward Moscow and Washington’s decision to open a place at the table for the Assad regime in efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis. Given this general backdrop, the Saudi side undoubtedly expected Turkey to support it in its dispute with Iran. However, Turkey unexpectedly found itself in a difficult position: It does not want to openly antagonize Iran, with which it maintains crucial energy ties, despite the antipathy it may feel toward the country. Ankara’s ambivalence was made apparent by its inability for three days to issue a statement about the execution of Nimr and the attacks against Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran by angry protesters. When the statement finally came, it was noted that Turkey was trying to place itself in a diplomatically safe middle ground, which was unlikely to please either Tehran or Riyadh. Talking to reporters after a Cabinet meeting Jan. 3, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister and government spokesman Numan Kurtulmus called on both countries to de-escalate the tension. The dispute, he said, could have dire consequences for the region, which “already resembles a powder keg.”
“It is essential for Turkey that diplomatic missions in foreign countries are protected according to the Vienna Convention. … We advise Iran to protect all the diplomatic missions in Iran,” Kurtulmus said.
“We are a country that has abolished the death penalty. We do not believe that the death penalty, and especially political death penalties, will contribute to regional peace,” he added, pointing a finger at Saudi Arabia. Riyadh is unlikely to be happy about his reference to “political death penalties.”
The statement by Kurtulmus, however, did not do away with Ankara’s ambivalence regarding the crisis. A written statement issued by the Foreign Ministry after Kurtulmus’ remarks accused Iran and apportioned no blame to Saudi Arabia. This appeared to be an attempt at appeasing Riyadh after Kurtulmus’ remarks. “We are concerned about the attack against Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic missions in Iran,” the statement said, going on to indicate that these attacks were “unacceptable.”
Calling on the two countries to “return to the language of diplomacy,” the Foreign Ministry statement made no reference to the execution of Nimr, despite the prevalent view in the international community that this was a provocative and unnecessary act that will only increase sectarian tensions in the Middle East.
There was, however, little backing for Saudi Arabia among Turkey’s pro-government Islamist supporters, thus revealing that little love is lost among Turkish Islamists for the Saudi regime and the Wahhabi interpretation of Islam on which it is based. The fact that AKP supporters feel an affinity for the Muslim Brotherhood and have abhorred Riyadh’s hostility toward the group is also a key factor that determines the view of Turkish Islamists toward Saudi Arabia. This was apparent in a commentary by Akif Emre, a prominent columnist for the pro-government daily Yeni Safak. Emre asked derisively in his column how it was that Saudi Arabia had "become the lead of the Sunni world and the representative of the majority of Muslims in the world,” and went on to argue that the crisis between Riyadh and Tehran is not based on sectarian considerations. “The picture we have today, which gives the impression of being centered on sectarianism, is only one product of the different dimensions the regional war for influence has taken on,” Emre wrote, going on to argue that Riyadh executed Nimr to create “controlled tensions” in the region. Emre also blasted the Saudi-led Islamic alliance against terrorism. “The fact that the Saudis have set up a coalition against the Islamic State, which itself is the product of the Saudi ideological approach, is a strategic irony,” he wrote. Maintaining that Riyadh is trying to establish a bloc for itself composed of non-Shiite powers, Emre said, “Turkey should not fall into the lap of this alliance” or take sides in the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Murat Yetkin, the staunchly secularist editor-in-chief of Hurriyet Daily News and a columnist for the daily Radikal, also cautioned against taking sides in the dispute. The surprise here is not in Yetkin’s views, but in seeing a secularist and an Islamist columnist in a rare moment of agreement.
“The idea of a Saudi-led alliance against terrorism perpetrated in the name of Islam was a bad idea from the start,” Yetkin wrote in his Radikal column. “It is not right for Turkey to be part of an alliance led by one of the most oppressive regimes in the world,” he added, calling on Davutoglu to keep Turkey out of the Sunni-Shiite rivalry being spearheaded by Riyadh and Tehran. Whatever the AKP’s intentions may be in cozying up to Saudi Arabia, they remain on hold now because of the Saudi-Iranian conflict — which also shows yet again that Ankara’s regional plans are ultimately at the mercy of the unpredictable ways of this part of the world.

Why are Iranian investors shrugging at nuclear deal?
Alireza Ramezani/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
TEHRAN, Iran — The main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) rose 221.7 points to hit 61,691 Dec. 30 — the last working day of 2015 in Iran. It has hovered around the same level so far this year, which is far lower than its 89,500 points in January 2013, six months before moderate President Hassan Rouhani was elected.The stock exchange's main index, TEDPIX, seems to have become numb to seemingly positive political developments. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which finally ended the 12-year-long nuclear crisis, did not set the index up for a significant rally. Neither did the International Atomic Energy Agency’s recent resolving of the long-running matter of the possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear energy program. Financial experts believe that Iranian stock markets suffer from deep distrust among investors. Indeed, markets have not even reacted to the 10.7% appreciation of the US dollar against the rial in the six months running up to Dec. 30. The government’s recent stimulus package has not helped either. The market’s apathy can largely be blamed on the global economic downturn. The slump in the prices of crude oil, petrochemical products as well as basic metals and minerals in international markets have all added to the external pressures on Iranian enterprises. Indeed, the economic sanctions against Iran, coupled with slow growth in China — a strategic trade partner of Iran — of late has had a significant impact on the Iranian economy and markets. There are also domestic factors at play. Issues such as the structural problems of Iranian capital markets, policy shifts and falling inflation are all contributing to the current situation.
Added to the mix is the Iranian parliament’s 2014 push to force the Rouhani administration to make significant changes to the price of petrochemical feedstock, which critics argued were unfairly low. Indeed, at that time, when global demand for petrochemicals and metals began plunging, Iranian lawmakers approved a hike in the price of petrochemical feedstock and also a rise in mining royalties — decisions that virtually all financial pundits believe led to the continuous fall in share prices in the ensuing months, given that the majority of market players in Tehran are involved in businesses related to the oil, gas, petrochemical and mining sectors.
Yet, top market authorities are confident that the future of Iranian capital markets will be rosy. In a recent interview with the leading economic magazine Tejarat-e-Farda, the head of the Securities and Exchange Organization (SEO), Mohammad Fetanat, said that officials are planning to decrease the price of petrochemical feedstock in a matter of weeks and provide investors with a 10-year schedule in this regard. The latter would enable investors to manage business risks in a more effective way. Among other measures the SEO is set to take in the near future is the launch of a foreign exchange derivatives market, a new instrument that both the chairman of the Central Bank of Iran and a board member of the parliamentary economic committee see as crucial to attracting foreign investment. Boosting the sukuk (Islamic bonds) market is key to achieve sustainable development, market officials argue.
However, there is still no official word on structural reform of capital markets. The state structure of markets has so far prevented many companies from being represented. According to Mohammad Reza Rahbar, a former board member of the TSE, only 400 out of 700,000 Iranian companies are represented in the market, with some of these 400 firms contemplating whether to leave the market due to the many constraints, red-tape and shortage of resources. Rahbar believes that among the measures that could revive investor confidence trust is the introduction of a long-term plan by capital markets authorities to give investors insight into how monetary, financial and trade policies will develop in the future.
The dominant narrative in Tehran is that the root cause of the market decline is the very slow economic growth, which is largely due to the credit crunch. A broker at the TSE trading floor told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that he believes that global oil prices are key to Iran’s economic growth.
The OPEC basket price currently stands at $35 per barrel, down from well over $100 per barrel in January 2013. Given the external pressures weighing on Iran’s crude exports and the current ban on the transfer of oil export proceeds back to the country, the government’s revenues considerably dropped in the two years running up to December 2015. The TSE broker told Al-Monitor that there doesn’t seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel. He said, “Capital markets will not get healthy in the short run — unless oil prices rebound.”Indeed, cuts in annual budgets have decreased the number of development projects, reducing the demand for cement, steel, ceramics and other domestically produced building materials. For instance, SEO chief Fetanat says that demand for cement has halved, putting immense pressure on TSE-listed cement companies. In this vein, he suggests that the government should raise at least 1.5 trillion rials ($50 billion at the official exchange rate) in financing through the debt market in the coming Iranian fiscal year — beginning March 20 — to kick off more development projects in an effort to boost real growth.Hence, as long as real growth in the gross domestic product remains elusive, neither sanctions relief nor a further drop in the rial’s value — nor even an expansionary monetary policy — will result in the revival of stock markets. Mindful that anticipated economic growth during the next Iranian calendar year will come from contributions made by exports of raw materials, investors are not likely to witness a boom in the stock market — at least not in the short run.

Congress seeks to punish countries that fail to hinder foreign fighters
Julian Pecquet/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
Congress is starting the new year with a clear warning that the Middle East and Europe need to do a whole lot more to prevent jihadis from moving around the globe.The House Foreign Affairs Committee is scheduled to vote Jan. 7 on legislation to create a plan to combat international travel by terrorists and other foreign fighters. The bill, from panel member Lee Zeldin, R-N.Y., notably requires the State Department to single out at-risk countries that fail to meet “minimum standards” for combating travel by foreign fighters. “The vulnerabilities that currently exist with international security abroad pose a concerning threat to our homeland,” Zeldin said in a statement. “The development of international border security standards is critical. With the rise of terrorism at home and around the world, it’s essential that we work together as a global community to monitor and stop the movement of terrorists.”The preliminary panel vote comes as Congress has been clamoring for action in the wake of last month’s deadly shooting in San Bernardino, which the FBI on Jan. 5 said appeared to be foreign “inspired” but not “foreign-directed.” Just before their Christmas break, lawmakers made it harder for Europeans and others with ties to Iran, Iraq, Syria and Sudan to benefit from visa-free travel to the United States.
Zeldin’s bill tracks closely with the conclusions of a September 2015 House Homeland Security Committee report whose very first recommendation was the creation of a national strategy to combat terrorist travel. The State Department would have six months to craft such a plan, with a special focus on foreign nations’ needs and shortcomings. In addition, the State Department and Homeland Security Department would be instructed to cooperate on an annual report tracking foreign countries’ progress in preventing travel by foreign fighters. Those nations that fail to make “significant efforts” to comply with the standards set forth in the bill would be at risk of losing US economic and military assistance. The threat of a US aid cut is particularly concerning for Middle East nations such as Tunisia and Jordan — and, to a lesser extent, Morocco — that receive millions in US aid every year. Those three countries ranked first, third and seventh, respectively, among the top 10 nations of origin of foreigners fighting in Syria and Iraq, according to data compiled by the Homeland Security panel (oil-rich Saudi Arabia, which doesn’t get any substantial US aid, ranked second).
To help foreign countries better control their borders, Zeldin’s bill would also authorize the Department of Homeland Security to provide them with “excess nonlethal equipment and supplies.” The bill specifically instructs the agency to “accelerate the provision” to foreign governments of its automated global targeting system to evaluate travelers along with the State Department’s system to securely compare and evaluate personal identification. The Department of Defense is already authorized to share excess weapons with foreign countries as part of a program that came under scrutiny after protesters in Ferguson, Missouri, were met by heavily armed police forces in 2014. The Department of Homeland Security did not respond to a request for comment. Separately, the House panel is also scheduled to vote Jan. 7 on legislation from Rep. Steve Russell, R-Okla., that would restrict the Obama administration’s ability to remove Iranian individuals and institutions from a US list of sanctioned entities.

Who Actually Represents American Muslims?
Samuel Westrop/2016 Gatestone Institute/January 07/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7082/who-represents-american-muslims
Activists participating in CAIR's lobby day included Abdullah Faaruuq, a Muslim cleric, who, in response to the arrest of Al Qaeda operative Aafia Siddiqui, told Muslims to "grab onto the gun and the sword and go out and do your job."
"[CAIR] is a Muslim Brotherhood front organization. It works in the United States as a lobby against radio, television and print media journalists who dare to produce anything about Islam that is at variance with their fundamental agenda. CAIR opposes diversity in Islam." -- Sheikh Abdul Hadi Palazzi, Muslim cleric and secretary general of the Italian Muslim Assembly.
Very few American Muslims seem to feel that CAIR is a legitimate voice for American Islam. According to a 2011 Gallup poll, about 88% of American Muslims said that CAIR does not represent them.
CAIR has been denounced by anti-racism groups, the federal government and by other Muslims. When legislators meet with CAIR, they help CAIR impose itself upon Muslim communities as a self-declared representative.
On November 12, 2015, the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR), with the support of a number of local Islamic groups in Boston, organized a lobbying day at the Massachusetts State House, ostensibly to advocate on behalf of local Muslims.
Nadeem Mazen, a director of CAIR's Massachusetts branch (CAIR-MA) and an elected councillor for the city of Cambridge, explained: "We must be thought leaders and exemplars in our communities for basic social justice. And we're meeting with our legislators to remind them that we are hundreds, thousands, and in many cases tens of thousands strong in their communities."
Certainly, the discussions that took place fit the "social justice" narrative – the Boston Globe reports that participants argued for "increasing affordable housing, reforming school discipline, and reducing mass incarceration for non-violent offenders."
But who exactly was behind this lobbying day? And what does it mean for American Muslims that such groups claim to represent their interests in state legislatures?
The chief organizing body, the Council on American-Islamic Relations, is a prominent Islamic group, but which has a long history of involvement with extremist and terrorist causes. In 2009, during the Holy Land Foundation terror financing trial, U.S. District Court Judge Jorge Solis concluded that, "The government has produced ample evidence to establish the associations of CAIR... with the Islamic Association for Palestine, and with Hamas."
During the trial, CAIR was designated an "unindicted co-conspirator." As a result of CAIR's apparent links to a terrorist movement, the Justice Department in 2009 announced a ban on working with CAIR. The FBI also severed relations.
CAIR was founded in 1994 by three officials of the Islamic Association of Palestine, which, the Holy Land Foundation trial would later determine, was a prominent Hamas front group. One of CAIR's Islamic Association of Palestine founders, Nihad Awad, is today CAIR's Executive Director.
The Anti-Defamation League notes that CAIR has long expressed anti-Semitic and pro-terror rhetoric, adding that, "[CAIR's] public statements cast Jews and Israelis as corrupt agents who control both foreign and domestic U.S. policy and are responsible for the persecution of Muslims in the U.S."
The other groups involved in the lobbying day included the Muslim Justice League, which campaigns against counter-terrorism initiatives; and MassMuslims, a Boston-based organization that claimed to promote civic engagement for the region's Muslims. Nadeem Mazen -- a councilor in Cambridge, a director of CAIR-MA and the chief architect of the lobby day -- founded MassMuslims in 2014. His group has promoted events with Omar Suleiman, a extremist preacher who describes homosexuality as a "disease" and a "repugnant shameless sin."
In May, another MassMuslims official, Omar Khoshafa, invited the extremist preacher Yasir Qadhi to address students at Harvard. Qadhi has claimed that "Hitler never intended to mass-destroy the Jews," and that the Holocaust is "false propaganda." Khoshafa, who was quoted as a participant at the lobby day, describes Yasir Qadhi as "one of the foremost Muslim-American scholars and an amazing lecturer."
Other activists involved with CAIR's lobby day included Abdullah Faaruuq, a Muslim cleric, who, in response to the arrest of the Al Qaeda operative, Aafia Siddiqui, told Muslims to "grab onto the gun and the sword and go out and do your job."
Abdullah Faaruuq, wearing a white skullcap, takes part in a Muslim "lobby day" at the Massachusetts State House.
But do any of these extremist connections matter if the purpose is simply to involve Massachusetts Muslims in the democratic process? The lobbying topics may seem relatively benign -- affordable housing, school reform and prison incarceration rates. But a letter sent by the Boston-based Americans for Peace and Tolerance to all State Legislators, and signed by a number of prominent Muslims explained that, "CAIR's initial strategy is to assert itself as the political voice of Massachusetts Muslims by addressing some of the legitimate needs of the American Muslim community, but it will eventually be lobbying for the acceptance of a radical and hateful ideology, to the detriment of Massachusetts's historically moderate, integrated Muslim population and the greater Boston community."
By purporting to advocate on behalf of Massachusetts Muslims, CAIR appears to be seeking credibility as a voice of American Islam. When legislators meet with CAIR, they help CAIR impose itself upon Muslim communities as their self-declared representatives.
Very few American Muslims, however, seem to feel that CAIR is a legitimate ambassador for American Islam. According to a 2011 Gallup poll, about 88% of American Muslims said that CAIR does not represent them. Muslims all over the world, in fact, apparently do not think CAIR is a moderate or legitimate Muslim group: in 2014, the United Arab Emirates, a pious Muslim state, designated CAIR a terrorist organization, along with dozens of other Muslim Brotherhood organizations.
In reality, American Muslims are extremely diverse, and no single group can claim to speak on their collective behalf. American Islam comprises dozens of different religious sects and political movements, many of which advocate distinctly different ideas. But for Islamist bodies such as CAIR, it suits their agenda if American Muslims are portrayed as a monolithic community. If American Muslims can be seen as homogenous, then a group such as CAIR has a better claim to represent their interests.
Even CAIR's own research, however, undermines their claim to speak on behalf of American Muslims. A 2011 report reveals that a majority of American mosques are not affiliated with any American Islamic body.
Addressing a conference in 2000, Sheikh Abdul Hadi Palazzi, a Muslim cleric and secretary general of the Italian Muslim Assembly, explained that, "[CAIR] is a Muslim Brotherhood front organization. It works in the United States as a lobby against radio, television and print media journalists who dare to produce anything about Islam that is at variance with their fundamental agenda. CAIR opposes diversity in Islam."
In truth, CAIR only speaks on behalf of a small extremist ideology that, as discovered by federal prosecutors, emerged across the United States during the 1990s out of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Although CAIR does not represent American Muslims, it managed, before the Holy Land Foundation terror trial in 2008, to persuade a great many people that it did. Enough time has passed that CAIR seems to believe it can try this move once again.
CAIR has been denounced by anti-racism groups, the federal government and by other Muslims. Its activities in the Massachusetts State House appear to be part of a larger effort to rehabilitate its image in the eyes of politicians and journalists.
While CAIR's preferred topics of discussion may seem benign is irrelevant, the real threat is one of legitimacy. If State Legislators continue to meet with CAIR and journalists continue to write puff pieces about CAIR's work, then we betray a worthy non-extremist Muslim majority while rewarding an extremist minority.Who represents America's Muslims? In truth, no one. And certainly not CAIR.
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Tehran’s smog problem unlikely to clear up anytime soon
Mahmoud Pargoo/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
Taghi Ebtekar, a lecturer at the University of Tehran and head of the Environmental Protection Organization of Iran from 1980 to 1981, was among the first academics to address the problem of Tehran’s air pollution back in the 1970s. His daughter, Masoumeh Ebtekar, the current head of Iran's Environmental Protection Organization, is continuing his struggle — but with no signs of success in the near future. While the elder Ebtekar consulted with the mayor of Tehran in 1975 to persuade him to recognize the significance of air pollution for the health and well-being of citizens, the younger Ebtekar may lose her career over the urgency of this issue, which causes the deaths of thousands of Iranians every year.The issue of air pollution was first addressed in the Statute for Preventing Air Pollution in July 1975. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution and during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, the issue was not taken seriously, as it was overshadowed by arguably more pressing priorities. In 2001, the 10-year Comprehensive Program to Decrease Air Pollution in Tehran (CPDAPT) passed. CPDAPT focused on improving environmental standards in Iran’s auto industry, the renovation of the aging vehicles on the streets, increasing access to public transportation, upgrading the quality of fuel and executing compulsory safety and environmental inspections of vehicles. In 2005, the Comprehensive Plan for Transportation and Traffic of Tehran (CPTTT) was introduced, with a special focus on decreasing air pollution. The CPTTT included initiatives such as increasing the green belt around main roads, the development of more pedestrian pathways in the business districts of Tehran, the introduction of hybrid taxis and the levying of new council taxes on low-standard vehicles. Some 11 years after the introduction and partial execution of the CPTTT and other initiatives, air pollution still kills thousands of people in Tehran annually. If anything, things have never been as bad as they’ve been this winter. So what is standing in the way of a more effective solution to this pressing problem?
For one thing, Tehran’s air pollution is partly due to geographical factors: The Iranian capital is semi-enclosed by high altitude mountains in three directions, blocking air circulation. Tehran makes up a quarter of the Iranian economy. Its population increased from 1.8 million in 1956 to more than 8 million in 2011, where it has roughly stayed. Meanwhile, the number of cars in Iran increased from 1.2 million in 1979 to 17 million in 2014, of which 7 million are roaming the streets of Tehran. The majority of these cars are domestically manufactured, with many of them failing to meet international environmental standards. Adding to this, the sanctions during the past decade have crippled the country’s technological advances in the auto industry and negatively affected fuel quality, among other issues. In sum, the matter of air pollution is a complex problem that is hard to address. Hence, it is no surprise that despite all efforts to reduce pollution in Tehran, the Iranian capital still suffers from this problem.
Moreover, even a cursory glance at Iranian newspapers these days gives away that air pollution has a very strong political component. On Dec. 26, the government-owned Iran Daily published a column describing the measures that metropolises in Western countries have taken to decrease air pollution. A day later, Hamshahri — owned by Tehran municipality — countered with an article about the power of municipalities in those megacities. Indeed, almost all political rivals are either trying to disclaim their respective organization’s responsibility of the problem or accusing their rivals of mismanagement. In short, air pollution is a politicized topic.
Without a doubt, politics are structurally involved in the problem of air pollution. The organizations responsible for taking on the issue are not coordinated and managed under a higher body with superseding control, while the Iranian capital suffers from the effects of centralized management. On the one hand, the mayor of Tehran is selected by the city council, whose members are elected by a public vote every four years. On the other hand, there are various government bodies — including the Environmental Protection Organization, the Oil Ministry and the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Trade — that make decisions that directly impact air quality. There are also other players and competitors; for instance, the authority for traffic lies with the police, which is under the control of the supreme leader.
Tehran’s need for centralized management was brought up several years ago, but it has been overshadowed by the potential risks of the overwhelming political power of the mayor. In this vein, and in relation to air pollution, many political factions oppose giving the mayor more power over the city. This is partly a result of the nature of the duties and responsibilities of Tehran municipality, which is making an effort to explain — perhaps a bit too much — its activities to the public. In addition, the municipality’s public relation tools are diverse and abundant, from public events in thousands of parks and public spaces to cultural centers in almost all districts of Tehran, controlling one of the most important newspapers in the country and so on and so forth. This makes any mayor of Tehran a highly influential person with tools to advance his political agenda, in the past leading to political ascension to the presidency. For instance, current Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has unsuccessfully run for president twice. Ghalibaf’s predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, won the presidential election of 2005 after serving as Tehran's mayor for only two years, during that time gaining such prominence and influence that he managed to take on powerful politicians such as Expediency Council Chairman Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and other rivals. Another previous mayor and potential presidential candidate was Gholamhossein Karbaschi, who was later politically neutralized by the conservative-controlled judiciary, which banned him from holding public office for 10 years. In conclusion, Tehran’s complex air pollution problem requires difficult decisions. These decisions may include stopping any new residential and commercial developments, levying high taxes on private car owners in the capital, increasing fuel prices, imposing strict environmental standards on vehicles entering the city, increasing fines for offenders and so on. But none of the responsible organizations are willing to bear the political burdens of such hard — and at times unpopular — decisions. Therefore, the issue appears set to drag on, at least for the near future.

Will missing text message disqualify Khomeini’s grandson?
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
On Jan. 5, the Assembly of Experts, the body that elects the supreme leader of Iran, held examinations for the candidates who registered to run in the 2016 elections. Of the 531 candidates who registered for the assembly elections, 400 attended the exam. Of the 131 missing from the examination, the most notable was Hassan Khomeini, the most prominent grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran.Hassan Khomeini’s absence surprised many, including Reformist and moderate figures and media, who were hoping to use the Khomeini family name to increase their political clout both in the assembly and parliamentary elections. His absence was stranger still because the test was administered in Qom, Iran’s religious center 80 miles south of the capital, a city Khomeini often resides in. According to his family members, Khomeini was never informed of the details regarding the test. Family members said that while the test was being administered, he was teaching a class. They even released a picture on social media showing the young cleric sitting at the center of what looks like a hosseinieh, or religious center, supposedly at the same time of the test.
Family members also denied reports that Khomeini’s absence suggests he is pulling out of the elections. The Guardian Council responded to claims that Khomeini was not informed of the test by saying that all the candidates were sent a text message about the test. They reiterated that no candidates would receive special concessions regarding how they would be informed. Dana website claimed that the Guardian Council had even prepared a special room for Khomeini to take the test, though this was denied by sources close to Khomeini.
The spokesman for the Guardian Council, Nejatollah Ebrahimian, said that missing the test would not automatically disqualify a candidate from running, and that if a candidate wants to pull out of the elections, it has to be put in writing. Nevertheless, he added that if a candidate does not take the test, the Guardian Council is unable to authenticate whether a candidate is qualified to run in the elections. But there are doubts about the text message. Ebrahimian told Etemaad newspaper that the Guardian Council had put out a public statement regarding the test. He said there was no written or personal invitation to take the test. He added that only candidates who have not been approved previously to run in the elections are required to take the test.
Etemaad, a Reformist paper sympathetic toward Khomeini, quoted Dec. 15 comments by Ayatollah Mohammad Momen, a member of the Guardian Council, who said that if a cleric teaches classes and has made public political statements, a religious test is not necessary and there is enough information to judge his qualifications. Conservative media, concerned about the popularity of Khomeini, were quick to exploit his absence from the examination. Even before this round of controversy, on Jan. 3, Mohammad-Ali Mohsen-Zadeh, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s representative to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' 41st Sarallah Division, warned that a new sedition was being planned by the family of Ayatollah Khomeini.

Congress sets up first showdown of the year over Iran deal
Julian Pecquet/Al-Monitor/January 07/16
The Obama administration tells Al-Monitor that it "strongly opposes" an Iran sanctions bill that is scheduled for an initial vote this week, setting the scene for the first of what promises to be a long list of showdowns over Iran policy in 2016.The House Foreign Affairs Committee on Jan. 7 is set to mark up legislation from Rep. Steve Russell, R-Okla., that would restrict the administration's ability to lift sanctions on Iranian financial institutions as called for under the Iran deal. Administration officials say the bill is a transparent attempt to derail the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
"We’re aware of this draft legislation, and as we have long said, we are opposed to any legislation that interferes with the implementation of the JCPOA," a senior administration official told Al-Monitor via email. "From what we have seen of this bill, it would interfere with the implementation of the JCPOA, and therefore, the administration strongly opposes it."
The bill would require the administration to certify that Iranian financial institutions have not knowingly helped fund Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, foreign terrorist organizations and several other entities before they can be removed from the Treasury Department's list of specifically designated nationals. The Iran deal requires that the United States cease its nuclear-related sanctions on those banks as part of its obligations under Annex II of the deal. "It means that we can't do the deal," said Richard Nephew, a former principal deputy coordinator for sanctions policy at the State Department, now with Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. "I think it's written with the deliberate intention of making it such that we cannot delist the banks that are supposed to be delisted."
The committee counters that the bill's goal is to "ensure the administration does not lift sanctions against individuals involved in Iran’s ballistic missiles program or terrorism," according to a markup schedule. Republicans — and not a few Democrats — are incensed at the administration's failure to sanction Iran for recent missile launches and have vowed to do all they can to keep punishing Iran for its support for terrorism and other activities. "We’ve ended up with the president negotiating a deal here which has to be enforced now," committee chairman Ed Royce, R-Calif., told reporters in a year-end press conference last month before leaving town for the holidays. "And we don’t see the intention at this point on the part of the administration with respect to a will to enforce. And this will be a key issue next year.”
The procedure and timing of this week's action, just days into the new year, suggests deal skeptics are scrambling to try to tie the administration's hands before sanctions are lifted on implementation day, which could happen as soon as this month. Sanctions bills are typically worked out between Royce and his Democratic counterpart, New York Rep. Eliot Engel, but in this case the bill being marked up was introduced by a committee outsider (Russell sits on the armed services and oversight panels) and hasn't been endorsed by a single Democrat — or even by Royce himself.
"It's disappointing, but I suspect the Republican leadership came down from high," Engel told Al-Monitor. "This is not a serious attempt. This is an attempt to play partisan politics with a very serious issue, and I don't want to be a part of that."Russell's bill is theoretically retroactive — it would apply to President Barack Obama's actions going back to July 19 — but it's not clear that would survive a challenge by the administration. The congressman's office told Al-Monitor that he hopes to get a floor vote on the bill shortly; no companion bill has yet been introduced in the Senate.
"Congressman Russell has been working with leadership on the timing of this bill, and we hope to see it come to the floor soon," a Russell spokesman said via email. Advocates of the Iran deal say some of the financial entities that are supposed to get relief under the deal were sanctioned specifically because of their ties to some of the actors designated by Russell's bill, making the certification impossible. The bill "would effectively bar the president from lifting sanctions on Iranian banks in ways that would contradict US obligations under the JCPOA," Tyler Cullis of the pro-deal National Iranian American Council argues in an email to Al-Monitor. "It would do so by mandating the president to certify that the Iranian banks had not provided financial services to designated Iranian entities, despite the fact that such banks were themselves designated for precisely doing such."
Cullis also raises concerns with a section of the bill that would give lawmakers the ability to review — and potentially void — administration licenses for the export of certain products to Iran.
"Some in Congress have grown concerned over the powers currently enjoyed by President Obama to lift sanctions on Cuba and Iran and signaling their intent to limit those powers in future," he told Al-Monitor. "This provision would allow Congress an effective veto over any presidential modifications to the US’s trade embargo with Iran, which highlights the serious concern by Iran hawks that the nuclear agreement foreshadows a broader rapprochement between the US and Iran."Nephew predicted such bills will keep popping up even after implementation day.
​"I fully expect that there will be challenges to the JCPOA by skeptics in Congress for the entire life of the JCPOA," he said. "Are they trying to tie [the president's] hands? Sure. Will they be trying to tie his hands in a couple of months? Sure. This is the life we now lead."

On privatizing Saudi airports
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/07 January/16
I frequently use the Riyadh and Jeddah airports, and used to feel that they were a test of passengers' patience due to bad services and hours of waiting. Although these airports have only witnessed simple improvements, travelers seem to be less discontent. Until recently, these airports did not have restaurants or cafes, except for one coffee shop that had bad coffee. They did not have shops, lounges, decent toilets, ATMs or currency-exchange booths. The flight information display systems were dysfunctional, the microphones' sound was unbearable, and employees at the passport check and security inspection made you feel afraid and guilty. The Saudi civil aviation authority’s recent announcement of its decision to privatize airports is a step for which people will thank it a lot if it succeeds. Meanwhile, a few people from society's elite were relaxed because they had their own corner in these airports called the "executive office." They would sit on comfortable couches and be served as much as coffee, tea and juice as they wanted. Today, both these airports are better despite an increase in the number of passengers and flights. Most services are now available, and the situation is even better than that of the VIP lounge. We do not get as angry as before when our flights are delayed. We pay for these new services, and we do so happily.
Were these improvements difficult to achieve in the past? Not at all. This is the difference between ignorant managers and skilled ones who know their duties when it comes to serving customers. Carelessness and ignorance are the only justifications for why passengers were treated with such negligence in the past.
Benefits. The Saudi civil aviation authority's recent announcement of its decision to privatize airports is a step for which people will thank it a lot if it succeeds. It will also yield financial profits that the kingdom deserves. Saudi Arabia is one of the most active countries in the region with regard to traveling. This is due to the presence of millions of foreign workers, millions of visiting pilgrims, and millions of Saudi citizens who love to travel during their vacations. It is with these people's money, not the government's, that the state can establish an excellent travel industry when the civil aviation authority decides to end its monopoly on the management of airports. If it succeeds, it will serve as a model for other sectors. The government has become aware that controlling the services sector is politically wrong and a failed managerial business. Passport check and security inspection services have changed a lot in Saudi airports. Their developed electronic services are better than those of other government sectors - some are even better than Dubai's, which stands as an example of quality of service. Developing the management's approach, being creative when devising solutions, having results measured by independent parties, and adopting the concept of accountability will achieve the required transformation by getting rid of bureaucratic and centralized approaches, and finally progressing toward a modern society.
*A few days ago we lost Rashed al-Fahed al-Rashed, a prominent journalist and an old friend. Rashed had lived his life in the media field but kept away from the spotlight. His political views were far ahead of his time. He was loved, noble and virtuous. We offer our deepest condolences to his family and loved ones. May he rest in peace.

More nightmares ahead for Syrian refugees in Turkey?
Mahir Zeynalov/Al Arabiya/07 January/16
For Western politicians, Turkey’s open-door policy for Syrian refugees is cause for applause, as long as they stay within Turkish borders. Since 2011, Ankara has been very generous to Syrian refugees, building high-quality refugee camps, and providing food and free healthcare. At the outset of the Syrian conflict, now in its fifth year, refugees thought they may one day return home. Turkey initially refused to grant them refugee status, describing them as “guests.” However, the possibility of an enduring settlement has become more distant than ever. Only this year, Ankara started to realize that it needs to address refugee needs. Turkey’s refugee problem gained international prominence only this summer when hundreds of thousands of refugees, mostly Syrian, boarded unsafe rubber boats for a perilous voyage to Greece. Dozens drowned under the silent gaze of the world. Unless the body of 3-year-old Alan Kurdi washed up on the Turkish shore, the ordeal of the refugees trying to cross into Europe would perhaps remain unnoticed. The heart-wrenching photo of Kurdi highlighted the urgency of the humanitarian crisis in Turkey. However, instead of seeking new ways to accommodate the ever-growing influx of Syrian refugees, the European Union (EU) decided to bribe Turkey to keep the refugees in return for the resumption of EU membership negotiations.
Burdens and tragedies
Following the deal, Turkey intensified its crackdown on some refugees on the grounds that they posed a threat to “public order and safety.” Hundreds of Syrians refugees were taken to detention centers. Some were deported back to Syria, a clear violation of international law on refugees. The EU pledged 3 billion euros to Turkey, and will closely monitor whether Ankara lives up to its commitment. With the deal, Turkey acknowledges that the refugees are here to stay, and that the authorities must undertake measures to integrate them into mainstream society. Turkey announced this week that Syrians entering the country by air and sea need to get a visa starting from Jan. 8, but the land border is open. However, international rights groups say the border gates with Syria are largely shut to incoming refugees. The last remaining stretch of Turkish-Syrian border that is held by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is used for smuggling oil, goods and fighters. The situation of Syrian children in Turkey is another tragedy. By the end of this year, Turkey hosted more than 700,000 school-age kids of Syrian refugees, 450,000 of whom did not attend school due to financial difficulties or language barriers. Tens of thousands of Syrian children are working illegally across Turkey, according to Amnesty International. The heaviest burden is on the provinces bordering Syria, such as Kilis, Gaziantep and Sanliurfa. The population of Kilis has doubled since refugees flooded the town. Cheaper labor has significantly reduced wages, while rent prices have skyrocketed. The refugees, many unable to work, have also helped drive up the crime rate and disrupt social order. Among many innocent Syrians, ISIS militants or pro-regime Syrians may sneak into Turkey. Only this year, Ankara started to realize that it needs to address refugee needs. Security tops the agenda, but a generation of Syrians unable to attend school will be lost. Those who cannot work fall prey to criminal gangs or human traffickers. Little has been done to teach refugees Turkish, the most important factor to survive in the country.

Surprise: Assad will outlast Obama in office
Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/07 January/16
If it were not for the civilians bombed, starved and suffocated by Chemical Weapons, the latest twist in Washington’s predictions on Bashar Al-Assad staying in power beyond the Barack Obama Presidency in 2017, would make great material for a tragicomedy named “Politics à la Mode”. The twist as reported by AP yesterday, is unlikely a surprise for Syria watchers and sums up new realities in Washington and Damascus which transformed Assad from a “dead man walking” to a man filling the void until further notice. An experienced Washington hand in the Middle East recently told me half jokingly that Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad “is more likely to leave office choking on a peach” than being toppled by the rebels or through a political settlement. Thanks to global dithering on Syria and brutal war tactics, this statement holds true today.
There was never a plan
Washington’s new revelation coming 1603 days after Obama called on Assad to step down, is a loud acknowledgement of the administration’s failure in Syria. It was Assad’s most ruthless actions in the conflict by using Chemical Weapons in 2013 in a Damascus suburb, that helped his regime regain international legitimacy. As Hisham Melhem recounted previously, when Obama asked Assad to step down on 18 August 2011, there was neither Plan A on how to execute such policy, nor a Plan B how to backtrack in an event that it fails. Obama’s call on Assad to step down heeded the whimsical and naïve approach of his junior aides in the White House, who predicted that the strongman of Damascus will meet the fate of his Tunisian, Yemeni and Egyptian counterparts. Four years later, it is Syria who is closer to collapse not Assad, and it is the U.S.’ credibility that has been dealt a blow while the killing machine exponentially grew in Syria.
Why Assad is still in power
When the Syrian conflict started, those who had visited Assad in Damascus came back reminding of the same equation that has kept the family in power for the last four decades: ignore outside pressure, execute with brutality and plan longterm. The Assads have outlived seven U.S. Presidents, and it is in that lens that they view the power balance and their survival. On the ground, Assad has been looking more inward from day one of the conflict, shielding the core circle of the regime, maintaining his hold on the largest cities, and relying on the loyalty of his minority the Allawites and that of his closest outsideallies Iran and Russia. While his power has certainly been weakened as thousands of armed groups sprouted across Syria, and his army relinquished large areas in the North and the South, Assad has withered the “must go” and regime change mantra of 2011. Ironically as well, it was Assad’s most ruthless actions in the conflict by using Chemical Weapons in 2013 in a Damascus suburb, that helped his regime regain international legitimacy. Then, Obama backed down on implementing his red line and punishing the regime, and sought instead Russia’s help in striking a deal with the same leader he considered illegitimate. It was that agreement to get rid of the Chemical Weapons stockpile that brought Assad from the cold, and extended his power lease until it's implemented.
What worked in Assad’s favor as well was his self fulfilling prophecy about some of his radical opponents. By freeing extremists from jails, and flattening houses on babies and children, Assad created the perfect environment for the Islamic State (ISIS), whose new capital is in Syria. This has also reshuffled Washington’s priorities, that now start with fighting ISIS and avoid weakening Assad. The fragmented and divided opposition also played into Assad’s hands, capitalizing on its failure to reach minorities earlier in the conflict, and getting hijacked by radicals in key territories later on.
The Vienna can
The latest U.S. calculus on Assad projects a new departure date for March, 2017, if all goes according to the plan in Vienna. While this may look appealing on paper, it is closer to a fantasy when juxtaposed with the ground reality in Syria and the regional schism. As of now, U.N. envoy Stephan De Mistura is struggling to get the opposition on the table, or have a list of the attendees. His current visit to Riyadh and later to Tehran is clouded with the worst crisis between the two since 1988, and his vision for a ceasefire has not stood a chance even in one corner in Aleppo. The streets of Syria are being ruled by thousands of battalions who see little to no relevance for the Vienna process. Meanwhile, Russia and Assad are wasting no time, and diligently eliminating rebel leaders, as Iran carves its own militia space in the country. Washington's new date for Assad departure proves how amenable the Syria policy is, and that Assad leaving in August 2011 or March 2017 is not a strategic occurrence. It is, however, a helpful tool to kick the Syria can down the road and masquerade a political process.

Corruption, crony capitalism at heart of Israeli politics
Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/07 January/16
Last week was another sad one for the notions of good governance and transparency in Israeli politics, highlighting corruption at the heart of government. First came the conviction of former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who was sentenced to eight months in prison for unlawfully accepting money from a U.S. supporter. Later in the week Sara Netanyahu, wife of the current prime minister, was questioned for five hours by police on suspicion of misusing public funds to pay for private expenses. This is only the tip of the iceberg of misuse of public resources and abuse of power in Israeli politics. Not a day goes by without revelations of politicians or civil servants suspected of corruption or cronyism. Their behavior is causing awful injustices within society, and distorts the economy and society in favor of the rich and mighty. In Olmert’s case, the wheels of justice not only turned slowly. On appeal, the High Court of Justice reduced his sentence from six years to 18 months, partially clearing him of the main bribery charge while upholding part of his conviction for taking a bribe. On Feb. 15, Olmert will register the unenviable record of becoming the first Israeli prime minister to be locked behind bars.
His conviction ends a long political career of one of the shrewdest, most competent politicians in recent decades. Sadly, his greed and trademark arrogance led to his downfall. Olmert’s unwillingness to express sincere regret after his most recent conviction is not only further proof of his flawed character, but also of the corrupt standards that entered Israeli public life. The predictable media field day around the conviction of a former prime minister should not conceal the much wider phenomenon of corruption at the heart of Israeli politics.
Lack of transparency
According to Transparency International, Israel is ranked 37 out of 175 countries in terms of transparency. That might not appear to be that alarming, but when compared to other member states of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), it is quite high. Among the main conclusions of the report is that the government, parliament and Civil Service Commission have done very little to fight corruption. This is unsurprising considering the long list of officials convicted in recent years of corruption and misdemeanors. The offenders include a former president, ministers of finance, health, internal affairs and religious affairs, MPs, civil servants, and even high-ranking police officers. Israel might not be the worst offender when it comes to corrupt officials, but there is an accumulated effect of consistent and persistent revelations of politicians in cahoots with big business, relationships from which they reap personal profits and party benefits. Corruption cases in Israel can be divided into two categories: cases of sheer personal greed by politicians gone astray, and forms of extremely damaging institutionalized corruption.
For decades, the country’s budget has been used to oil the wheels of coalition government. With very dubious transparency, billions of shekels are transferred to organizations associated with certain parties and politicians in an obvious bid for political support.
Increasingly, another form of institutionalized corruption is gathering pace: crony capitalism. Big corporations and businessmen are donating money to parties or filling the pockets of corrupt politicians and civil servants, achieving access to the corridors of political power and fat contracts.
Only a few summers ago, nearly half a million Israeli citizens protested for weeks, demanding social justice and transparency in public life. The spirit of 2011 seems to have evaporated and been replaced by apathy, despite continuous deterioration of acceptable standards in public life.
One of the most disturbing sagas in Israel’s modern crony capitalism revolves around the exploration and extraction of offshore natural gas from the Mediterranean. Only a few years after the country’s euphoria following news of the discovery of huge reservoirs of natural gas, a major national controversy erupted when the anti-trust commissioner ruled that the conglomerate developing the gas fields may constitute a monopoly.
This did not stop government officials, and especially Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, from trying to override anti-trust regulations, even changing the minister in charge of it, in order to create favorable conditions for an alleged monopoly. The corporation has lobbied relentlessly for this deal, one that will only benefit the public in a limited way as large parts of the revenue will end up in the bank accounts of business tycoons.
Widespread culpability
There are numerous other examples of mishandling of public money in municipalities and government ministries. Wrongdoing is not confined to one political party. Recently, Israeli police recommended indicting two former Israel Beitenu ministers, the extreme right-wing party, who allegedly devised a sinister system to syphon public money into their own pockets. The Labour party also has representation in this parade of corruption in former defense minister and party chairman Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, accused of money-laundering and taking bribes. No government corruption can be excused under any circumstances, as it destroys good governance, transparency and social justice, and deprives those of resources who are most in need.Israel is, for better or worse, the product of the Zionist movement. The country’s corruption fails the very people it gathered from around the world to accomplish its national dream. Gaps between rich and poor are constantly growing, as are the cracks in social cohesion, and its young people are required to risk their lives in extremely controversial circumstances while a small elite continue to enrich themselves through malignant abuse of power.