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Bible Quotations For Today
I am the voice of one crying out in the wilderness, "Make straight the way of the Lord" ’, as the prophet Isaiah said.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 01/19-28: "This is the testimony given by John when the Jews sent priests and Levites from Jerusalem to ask him, ‘Who are you?’He confessed and did not deny it, but confessed, ‘I am not the Messiah.’And they asked him, ‘What then? Are you Elijah?’ He said, ‘I am not.’ ‘Are you the prophet?’ He answered, ‘No.’Then they said to him, ‘Who are you? Let us have an answer for those who sent us. What do you say about yourself?’He said, ‘I am the voice of one crying out in the wilderness, "Make straight the way of the Lord" ’, as the prophet Isaiah said. Now they had been sent from the Pharisees. They asked him, ‘Why then are you baptizing if you are neither the Messiah, nor Elijah, nor the prophet?’John answered them, ‘I baptize with water. Among you stands one whom you do not know, the one who is coming after me; I am not worthy to untie the thong of his sandal.’ This took place in Bethany across the Jordan where John was baptizing."

I may be untrained in speech, but not in knowledge; certainly in every way and in all things we have made this evident to you."
Second Letter to the Corinthians 11/01-06: "I wish you would bear with me in a little foolishness. Do bear with me! I feel a divine jealousy for you, for I promised you in marriage to one husband, to present you as a chaste virgin to Christ. But I am afraid that as the serpent deceived Eve by its cunning, your thoughts will be led astray from a sincere and pure devotion to Christ. For if someone comes and proclaims another Jesus than the one we proclaimed, or if you receive a different spirit from the one you received, or a different gospel from the one you accepted, you submit to it readily enough. I think that I am not in the least inferior to these super-apostles. I may be untrained in speech, but not in knowledge; certainly in every way and in all things we have made this evident to you."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on january 11-12.16.htm
Assad is picking and choosing his opposition/Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/January 11/16
Iran’s elections and a challenge named Hassan Khomeini/Camelia Entekhabi-Fard/Al Arabiya/January 11/16
Can the private sector solve the Saudi unemployment problem/Samar Fatany/Al Arabiya/January 11/16
Prospects for mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/January 11/16
The Saudi state vs the Iranian revolution/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Now Lebanon/January 11/16
Germany Just Can't Get It Right/Douglas Murray/© 2016 Gatestone Institute/January 11/16
Blame Terror on Everyone but Terrorists/Burak Bekdil/© 2016 Gatestone Institute/January 11/16
Turkey's New Base in Qatar/Olivier Decottignies and Soner Cagaptay/Washington Institute/January 11/16
How Obama Created a Mideast Vacuum/Dennis Ross/Washington Institute/Politico/January 11/16
Saudi Defense Minister Visits Pakistan to Repair Strained Relations/Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/January 11/16
Russian air strikes slowed down over Syria by weather and maintenance/DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 11, 2016

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on january 11-12.16.htm
Israel allegedly strikes Hezbollah in Qalamoun
Rivals Meet to Consolidate Cabinet, Aoun and Franjieh Absent
Hizbullah, Mustaqbal Stress Keenness on 'Continuing Dialogue, Reactivating Cabinet'
Hariri: Bassil's Stance Appeases Iran, Harms Lebanon
Kataeb Calls for Keeping Cabinet Sessions Free of 'Political Calculations'
Hariri and Saudi Arabia Seek to Break Monopoly of Christian Representation
Berri Says his MPs Have the Freedom to Choose between Aoun and Franjieh
Report: LF Informs March 14 its Intention to Back Aoun for Presidency, Mustaqbal and Kataeb Reject
Report: Hariri, Franjieh Met again over Presidential Initiative
Salam Holds onto Dialogue, Hints he Would Stick to Cabinet Session Agenda

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on january 11-12.16.htm
Canadian Statement on Canadian detained in Afghanistan
Iranian official: Saudi rulers are serving the Zionists and Americans
Aid convoys head to besieged Madaya town
Aid Convoy Enters Besieged Syria Town of Madaya
12 Dead in IS Hostage-Taking Attack on Baghdad Mall
Mob Attacks Cologne Migrants as Probe Blames Refugees for NYE Violence
France demands Russia end Syrian operations
Observatory: 8 children dead after Russia strike hits Syria school
Yemen ISIS-linked militants kill senior officer in Aden
Palestinian attempts to stab Israeli soldier, shot: Army
Saudi Arabia arrests 49 ‘terror suspects’ in 10 days
Tunisia's Islamist Ennahda becomes biggest in parliament
Palestinian on hunger strike in Israel in critical condition
China envoy calls for restraint between Saudi and Iran
Putin: I want global action against terrorism
16,000 Syrian Refugees Stuck at Jordan Border
Air strikes target ISIS convoy near Libya’s Sirte

Israel allegedly strikes Hezbollah in Qalamoun
Now Lebanon/January 11/16/BEIRUT – Israel has allegedly conducted air strikes against Hezbollah targets in Syria’s mountainous Qalamoun, with a Lebanese outlet reporting mystery blasts in the remote border region. Syrian activist outlet 7al.me first reported the purported raids shortly before midnight Sunday, claiming that “two consecutive Israeli raids” targeted Hezbollah outside the border village of Flita, which lies 30 kilometers east of Lebanon’s Nahle. “The sirens of ambulances were heard in Yabrud after Israeli aircraft targeted Hezbollah’s positions,” the pro-rebel outlet posted in an update on Twitter later Sunday night. The more recent version of the story added that Israel had conducted five strikes in the region, where Israel has reportedly targeted Hezbollah in the past. 7al.me in recent weeks has claimed that Hezbollah has been hit by a number of raids, while Israel has stayed mum on the issue. Another activist outlet, Qasioun News, also said that Israeli jets bombed Hezbollah positions outside Fleeta on Sunday, but did not go into further details. Meanwhile, the Lebanon Files online outlet reported Monday morning that mystery blasts had rocked the Qalamoun border region. “Explosions were heard overnight in the outskirts of Flita,” the site said, stressing that the nature of the blasts remains unknown. Lebanon Files added that unidentified warplanes overflew the region at the time of the explosions. Neither Lebanon’s state National News Agency nor other media outlets in the country reported blasts in the border area, where Hezbollah routed Al-Nusra Front fighters and other rebels in a blistering campaign in the spring of 2015. The purported strikes come amid heightened tension between Hezbollah and its arch-foe Israel after prominent Hezbollah militant Samir Kuntar was killed by an Israeli airstrike in Damascus on December 19. Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah repeatedly vowed to retaliate against the assassination, and his party’s fighters on January 4 targeted an Israeli military patrol south of the Lebanese border with a large explosive. The Hezollah strike caused no casualties among the ranks of the Israelis and drew a limited response that saw Israel shell the south Lebanese areas of Al-Abbasiyeh, Majeediyeh, and Al-Wazaniyeh.

Rivals Meet to Consolidate Cabinet, Aoun and Franjieh Absent
Naharnet/January 11/16/Lebanon's rival leaders met again on Monday at the national dialogue table to consolidate the work of the government three days before it is scheduled to convene. The 13th session was held in Ain el-Tineh in the absence of Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun who sent his son-in-law Free Patriotic Movement chief Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil to represent him. Marada leader MP Suleiman Franjieh also failed to attend the talk. MP Youssef Saadeh replaced him instead, saying Franjieh was abroad. Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblat left the talks early, only telling reporters that “dialogue and internal solidarity were very important.” Speaker Nabih Berri, who chaired the session, is trying to garner the support of the rival factions for a cabinet meeting that is scheduled to be held on Thursday. The Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) later said that “unproductive dialogue prevailed during the session,” and that MP Farid Makari had left the session without making any statement. Another session will be held on January 27. After the meeting, MP Ali Ammar said that discussions focused on “reactivating the government's work and that the dialogue atmospheres were positive,” On the cabinet session slated for Thursday, Ammar said and that “efforts will seek to facilitate its convention.” The government last met in December to approve a plan to export Lebanon's waste. But it has failed to hold regular sessions because of a dispute on the decision-making mechanism in the absence of a president and the appointments of security and military officials. The FPM has linked the fate of the sessions to the discussion of the mechanism and the appointments.

Hizbullah, Mustaqbal Stress Keenness on 'Continuing Dialogue, Reactivating Cabinet'
Naharnet/January 11/16/Hizbullah and al-Mustaqbal movement stressed Monday after bilateral talks in Ain al-Tineh their keenness on “the continuation of dialogue” between them as they vowed to exert efforts to reactivate the work of the paralyzed cabinet. The conferees “discussed the latest developments and their stances on the current issues,” said a joint statement issued after the talks. “Despite the disagreements over several foreign issues, the conferees reiterated their keenness on continuing and vitalizing dialogue and sparing Lebanon any repercussions that might affect its domestic stability,” the statement added.
It comes after a war of words between the two parties that was triggered by a Saudi-Iranian row over the execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a prominent Saudi Shiite cleric and dissident. The heated tirades between Hizbullah and al-Mustaqbal had threatened to derail the ongoing dialogue between them.
Separately, the two parties said they agreed to “intensify contacts aimed at reactivating the work of the cabinet.”Prime Minister Tammam Salam has scheduled a cabinet session for Thursday and most parties appear to be inclined to attend it. The government last met in December to approve a plan to export Lebanon's waste. But it has failed to hold regular sessions because of a dispute on the decision-making mechanism in the absence of a president and the appointments of security and military officials. The Free Patriotic Movement has linked the fate of the sessions to the discussion of the mechanism and the appointments.

Hariri: Bassil's Stance Appeases Iran, Harms Lebanon
Naharnet/January 11/16/Al-Mustaqbal movement chief Saad Hariri expressed regret on Lebanon's abstention from voting on the Arab League statement that denounced Iran's acts against Saudi Arabia, Hariri's press office said in a statement on Monday. “The abstention of Lebanon's Foreign Minister to vote on the Arab League's resolution does not reflect the opinion of the majority of the Lebanese who are suffering from the Iranian interference in their internal affairs,” Hariri's press statement said. “The majority of the Lebanese exchange feelings of solidarity with Saudi Arabia which is recognized for its supporting stances during times of crises and after each Israeli aggression against Lebanon,” he added. “Alleging that the Arab League's final statement on Hizbullah's interference in Bahrain does not justify evasion from consensus on a fundamental issue addressing the Iranian meddling in internal Arab affairs. It is a fallen reason that does not go in parallel with the concept of prioritizing Lebanon's national interest to the Arab consensus. “We are in front of a stance that only serves to appease Iran and harms Lebanon's history with its brethren Arabs,” added the ex-PM. Top Arab diplomats, except Lebanon, rallied behind Saudi Arabia on Sunday in a dispute with Iran that has threatened to derail efforts to resolve Middle East conflicts including the war in Syria. The Arab League joint statement denounced the "hostile acts and provocations of Iran". Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil expressed Lebanon's rejection of the statement that condemned Hizbullah over alleged interference in Bahrain. The Saudi-Iranian diplomatic row erupted following Saudi Arabia's execution on January 2 of a prominent Shiite cleric, Nimr al-Nimr, along with 46 others on terrorism charges. The execution touched off anti-Saudi demonstrations in many Shiite countries including in Iran where demonstrators sacked and set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in second city Mashhad.

Kataeb Calls for Keeping Cabinet Sessions Free of 'Political Calculations'
Naharnet/January 11/16/The Kataeb Party on Monday called on the country's political forces to keep their “political calculations” out of cabinet sessions, stressing that the government must focus its efforts on “addressing people's urgent affairs.”“The election of a president remains the top national priority and the first and main condition for national stability,” said the party in a statement issued after the weekly meeting of its political bureau. “Regarding the work of institutions, the Kataeb Party emphasizes that the next cabinet session must represent a return for democracy to the political life,” it added. The party also called for reactivating the government in a manner that “keeps political calculations out of cabinet sessions,” noting that the council of ministers must focus on “addressing people's urgent affairs and the country's vital issues.”Kataeb also reiterated its stance on the need to “neutralize Lebanon from the region's conflicts in a manner that preserves the unity of Lebanon and the Lebanese.”Prime Minister Tammam Salam has scheduled a cabinet session for Thursday and most parties appear to be inclined to attend it. The government last met in December to approve a plan to export Lebanon's waste. But it has failed to hold regular sessions because of a dispute on the decision-making mechanism in the absence of a president and the appointments of security and military officials. The Free Patriotic Movement has linked the fate of the sessions to the discussion of the mechanism and the appointments.

Hariri and Saudi Arabia Seek to Break Monopoly of Christian Representation
Naharnet/January 11/16/Former President Michel Suleiman's visit to Saudi Arabia was orchestrated by al-Mustaqbal movement leader Saad Hariri and came as a reaction to the new alliance that emerged between Lebanese Forces head Samir Geaega and former Free Patriotic Movement chief Michel Aoun, media reports said. The visit aims to pave way for Christian figures, other than Geagea, to visit Saudi officials in a message to the latter that Riyadh has its doors open for any Christian figure of the March 14 alliance, added the reports.
Furthermore, Hariri is also readying a visit to Saudi Arabia for Kataeb party chief MP Sami Gemayel to hold meetings with prominent Saudi officials, they added. Independent March 14 Christian figures are also set to visit the Kingdom in a bid to break what reports described as “monopolizing the representation of Christians” by Geagea and Aoun. In parallel, former President Michel Suleiman had returned from Saudi Arabia where he met with Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz and other prominent figures. He also held a meeting with Hariri where discussions focused on “the threats posed by the presidential vacuum and the need to end this abnormal and dangerous situation through electing a president as soon as possible,” a statement by Hariri's press office said. Hariri had recently launched an initiative involving the nomination of Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency in a bid to end the vacuum that has been running since May 2014. But the initiative ran aground after it drew reservations and objections from the country's main Christian parties – the Free Patriotic Movement, Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party. Hizbullah has also voiced reservations over the move and reiterated its commitment to the nomination of Change and Reform bloc chief Aoun, its main Christian ally.

Berri Says his MPs Have the Freedom to Choose between Aoun and Franjieh
Naharnet/January 11/16/Speaker Nabih Berri has lamented that no solution was looming on the horizon for the presidential crisis but said he gave the MPs of his bloc the freedom to chose the candidate they wanted. “The presidential elections have been frozen,” Berri, whose remarks were published in newspapers on Monday, told his visitors. But the speaker said that an initiative launched by al-Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri to bring Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president was “still alive because its sponsors are holding onto it.”Asked what his stance would be if Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea announced his backing for the candidacy of Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun, Berri said: “In this case, both Aoun and MP Suleiman Franjieh should head to the parliamentary session.”“The person who gets the majority of votes would win,” he added.
There have been reports that the LF has officially backed Aoun. The speaker also discussed with his visitors about the all-party talks and the meeting between Hizbullah and al-Mustaqbal officials that are scheduled to be held separately on Monday. He said the national dialogue's discussions will focus on ways to activate the work of the government. “I will seek to resolve the reservations expressed by some parties on the cabinet session that is scheduled to be held on Thursday,” said Berri. On the Hizbullah-Mustaqbal dialogue, the speaker told his visitors that the perseverance to hold the talks is a major “achievement amid the tough local and regional conditions surrounding us.”Tension between the two sides has been high following Saudi Arabia's execution of prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.

Report: LF Informs March 14 its Intention to Back Aoun for Presidency, Mustaqbal and Kataeb Reject
Naharnet/January 11/16/The Lebanese Forces has informed the March 14 alliance that the LF would back Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun for the presidency, An Nahar daily reported on Monday. The newspaper said that LF lawmaker George Adwan made the announcement on his party's serious intention to back Aoun during a meeting that was held by the coalition’s leaders on Sunday night. Adwan urged them “to deal with this option calmly,” it said. If the report was true, then it means the LF is giving up the candidacy of its leader Samir Geagea in favor of his rival Aoun. Al-Mustaqbal Movement chief ex-PM Saad Hariri, who leads the alliance, has backed Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency. According to An Nahar, al-Mustaqbal informed Adwan during Sunday's meeting that choosing Aoun as president means handing over Lebanon's political-decision making to Hizbullah, Aoun's main ally, and the Iranian axis. Al-Mustaqbal also told the LF official that Franjieh would not succumb to the pressure exerted by Hizbullah. The representative of the Kataeb Party expressed a similar stance, An Nahar said, without giving further details.

Report: Hariri, Franjieh Met again over Presidential Initiative
Naharnet/January 11/16/Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh have held a second meeting to discuss the Mustaqbal Movement leader's controversial presidential initiative, al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Monday. The daily said that the meeting took place last week “to discuss the developments on Hariri's attempt to back Franjieh for the presidency.” The talks between the two officials took place in Europe, said the report despite the denial of top Marada and Mustaqbal sources that Hariri and Franjieh met. The first meeting between them was held in November after which it was revealed that the former PM backed the Marada leader for the presidency. Lebanon's top Christian post has been vacant since May 2014 when President Michel Suleiman's six-year term ended. Hariri's backing of Franjieh in an attempt to end the vacuum at Baabda Palace has been criticized by the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party - three main Christian parties. Both the FPM and the LF have candidacies for the presidency.

Salam Holds onto Dialogue, Hints he Would Stick to Cabinet Session Agenda
Naharnet/January 11/16/Prime Minister Tammam Salam has stressed that dialogue remained the only option to resolve the country's lingering crises and hinted that he would stick to the agenda of a cabinet session he has called for despite the reservations of the Free Patriotic Movement. “Dialogue was and will remain the bridge to all desired solutions,” Salam said in remarks published in several local newspapers on Monday. He said dialogue preserves the interests of all Lebanese factions and “guarantees an exit from the series of crises” striking the country. Salam was referring to the all-party talks and to the dialogue between Hizbullah and al-Mustaqbal Movement that are scheduled to be held separately on Monday. Asked about Thursday's cabinet session, Salam said he would stick to its agenda which has 140 items. But he stressed that he would “not mind” to discuss issues from outside the agenda if there was consensus on them. The premier tried to distance himself from the controversial issue of military and security appointments, saying he was only seeking to revive the work of the government on procedural issues. “It is up to the political parties to resolve huge political and controversial issues, including the vacancy in military, security and administrative posts,” he said. Despite Salam's optimism, it was not yet clear if the session would be successful and if all its members would attend. FPM sources told As Safir daily that the movement's stances have not changed. “The FPM links its participation in (cabinet) sessions to the willingness to discuss the issue of appointments … and the mechanism of the government,” they said. FPM official Education Minister Elias Bou Saab also hinted to al-Liwaa daily that the movement's ministers could boycott the session. He hoped an understanding would be reached by Thursday without further elaboration. The cabinet last met in December to approve a plan to export Lebanon's waste. But it has failed to hold regular sessions because of the dispute on the decision-making mechanism in the absence of a president and the appointments.

Canadian Statement on Canadian detained in Afghanistan
January 11, 2016 – Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, issued the following statement today:
“Canada is very pleased that efforts undertaken to secure the release of Colin Rutherford from captivity have been successful.
“We look forward to Mr. Rutherford being able to return to Canada and reunite with his family and loved ones.”
“The Government of Canada will continue to provide Mr. Rutherford with consular assistance and will assist in facilitating his safe return home.‎
“As minister of foreign affairs, I extend my heartfelt thanks to the Government of Qatar for its assistance in this matter.‎”

Iranian official: Saudi rulers are serving the Zionists and Americans
Jerusalem Post/January 11/16/Iran's judiciary chief slammed Saudi Arabi on Monday for its hostile policies towards Tehran claiming that Saudi policies are serving the interests of the United States and Israel by harming the Muslim world, according to a report by Fars News. "The illogical and unwise measures by the Saudi rulers have led to nothing but weakening the Muslim world, providing service to the world arrogance and strengthening the terrorist stream," said Sadeq Amoli Larijani in a speech addressing the judiciary officials in Tehran according to the report. Lorajani continued on to blast the attitudes of the Saudi leadership stating that Saudi officials speak with the illusion that they have control of the affairs of all Islamic countries. "Unfortunately, the Saudi rulers have turned into a laborer at the service of the Zionists and Americans," he added. Also Monday, in a meeting with former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Shamkhani, called on the Saudi leadership to stop creating instability in the region by encouraging hostility toward Iran by other Islamic countries. Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran last week in response to the storming of its embassy in Tehran in an escalating row between the rival Middle East powers over Riyadh's execution of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a vocal critic of the Saudi government. Iranian demonstrators protesting against the execution of the cleric, broke into the Saudi embassy building, smashed furniture and started fires before being ejected by police. Tensions between revolutionary, mainly Shi'ite Iran and Saudi Arabia's conservative Sunni monarchy have run high for years as they backed opposing forces in wars and political conflicts across the Middle East, usually along sectarian lines.

Aid convoys head to besieged Madaya town
Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Monday, 11 January 2016/More residents in the besieged Syrian town of Madaya starved to death in recent days while waiting for the delivery of food and medical aid. Doctors inside Madaya, home to 40,000 residents, said five more people died of starvation on Sunday, including a nine-year-old boy, according to news agencies. Trucks headed for Madaya, near the Lebanese border, and two villages in the northwest of the country on Monday, the Red Cross said, as part of an agreement between warring sides. The vehicles were to simultaneously enter rebel-held Madaya, which has been blockaded for months by pro-government forces and where aid agencies have warned of widespread starvation, and al Foua and Kefraya in Idlib province, which are encircled by insurgents. The first shipment of food is expected to reach Madaya by Monday, according to U.N. officials, while Doctors Without Borders said on Sunday that 10 people were in need of immediate hospitalization. Doctors Without Borders also warned that a further 200 patients could deteriorate to a critical condition within a week without urgent aid. Last month, at least 23 people died of starvation inside the town amid pleas for the fast delivery of aid. The World Food Program and the International Committee for the Red Cross said they had loaded up a convoy of trucks filled with food and other relief supplies for Madaya but it has not yet left Damascus. On Sunday, the World Food Program tweeted an image of supplies being loaded onto an aid convoy heading to the besieged town. Blockades have been a common feature of the nearly five-year-old war that has killed an estimated 250,000 people. Government forces have besieged rebel-held areas near Damascus for several years and more recently rebel groups have blockaded loyalist areas including two villages in Idlib province.The fate of Madaya may be linked to those villages. The areas were all part of a local ceasefire agreement agreed in September but implementation has been halting. The last aid delivery to Madaya, which happened in October, was synchronized with a similar delivery to the Shi’ite villages -- al-Foua and Kefraya. Ali described the people of Madaya as hostages held as a bargaining chip for al-Foua and Kefraya. Aid agencies were hoping for easier access to the area following the ceasefire deal concluded under U.N. supervision.

Aid Convoy Enters Besieged Syria Town of Madaya
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 11/16/The first trucks carrying desperately needed aid entered the besieged Syrian town of Madaya on Monday, where more than two dozen people are reported to have starved to death. The Syrian Arab Red Crescent said two trucks loaded with food and blankets entered the rebel-held town late afternoon, at around the same time a military source said three others entered each of the government-controlled towns of Fuaa and Kafraya. Relieved residents of Madaya -- which has been encircled by President Bashar Assad's forces for six months -- said they had resorted to extreme measures to survive. "For 15 days we have been eating only soup," said Hiba Abdel Rahman, 17. "I saw a young man killing cats and presenting the meat to members of his family as rabbit." "Some people went through garbage bins, others ate grass. We sought food from the fighters but they refused to give it to us."Ali Issa, a father of eight, said they had run out of everything, even money to buy what little food could be smuggled through at exorbitant prices. The International Committee of the Red Cross said hailed the first deliveries. "The operation has started. It is likely to last a few days. This is a very positive development," said Marianne Gasser, head of the ICRC's Syria delegation. "But it must not be just a one-off distribution. To relieve the suffering of these tens of thousands of people, there has to be regular access to these areas," she said in a statement. The U.N.'s World Food Program is providing the food, namely milk for children, while the ICRC is supplying medicine enough to last three months, medical equipment and blankets. The operation to organize the supplies with help from the Red Crescent got underway after Assad's regime gave permission for the deliveries on Thursday. It comes after an outpouring of international concern and condemnation over the dire conditions in Madaya, home to some 42,000 people. An AFP correspondent who reached Madaya with the aid convoy said the town's streets were deserted, with only a service station open. A pair of elderly women were seen sitting on suitcases as Red Crescent official said a dozen of residents would be evacuated from the town.
Since December 1, some 28 people had died of starvation in Madaya, according to Doctors Without Borders, a Paris-based charity known by its French acronym MSF.
Landmark ceasefire deal
Fifty trucks bearing the Red Crescent symbol were on their way to Madaya and 21 heading to Fuaa and Kafraya, the ICRC said. The trucks were carrying food, water, infant formula, blankets and medication for acute and chronic illnesses, as well as surgical supplies. The three towns, along with rebel-held Zabadani near Madaya, were part of a landmark six-month deal reached in September for an end to hostilities in those areas in exchange for humanitarian assistance. A first aid delivery went ahead in October and in December some 450 fighters and civilians were evacuated from Zabadani, Fuaa and Kafraya.
But aid had not reached Madaya in nearly three months, and residents and rights groups have raised the alarm about deteriorating conditions.
Government forces have been able to airdrop some supplies into Fuaa and Kafraya, which are home to around 20,000 people, but rebel forces are not able to do the same for Madaya. Over the weekend, MSF said 23 people had died of starvation since December 1 at one of the facilities it supports in Madaya. On Sunday it reported five additional deaths, including that of a nine-year-old boy. "MSF-supported medics in the besieged town have 10 critical starvation patients needing urgent hospitalization," said MSF. It said that "200 more malnourished patients could become critical and in need of hospitalization within a week if aid doesn't arrive." The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said another 13 people died when they stepped on landmines or were shot by snipers as they tried to escape in search of food.
'Inhuman tactic'
Last week, the U.N. said only 10 percent of its requested aid deliveries to hard-to-reach and besieged areas of Syria last year were approved and carried out. More than 260,000 people have been killed in Syria since the conflict began in March 2011 with anti-government demonstrations. The United States and Britain on Monday called for an end to all sieges in Syria, while French President Francois Hollande called for the immediate establishment of "humanitarian measures.""Starving civilians is an inhuman tactic used by the Assad regime and their allies," said Matthew Rycroft, the British ambassador to the United Nations. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said "full access" to besieged towns is needed, urging all parties to cooperate.

12 Dead in IS Hostage-Taking Attack on Baghdad Mall
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 11/16/An attack by the Islamic State group involving a car bomb, a gunfight and a hostage-taking left at least 12 people dead in Baghdad Monday, security and medical sources said. The exact sequence of the attack in the Baghdad al-Jadida area of the Iraqi capital was not immediately clear but security officials and an AFP reporter described scenes of chaos. The attack, which IS claimed in a statement posted online, was a departure from the jihadist organization’s usual modus operandi of suicide car bombings. According to an official from the interior ministry, gunmen blew up at least one car bomb before spraying gunfire in the street and storming a mall called Zahrat Baghdad. "At least one of the attackers had a suicide vest and blew himself up inside the mall," the official said. Several people were held hostage inside the mall and three of them were killed as security forces attempted to neutralize the attackers, a police colonel said. "When the security forces got too close, they killed three hostages," he said. "The attackers at one stage released at least nine hostages, women and children," he also said.
The police officer said at least two members of the security forces were killed during the attack and nine wounded, including three officers. A hospital official confirmed the death toll and said at least three attackers either killed themselves or were killed by the security forces. Security forces at one stage in the attack reported that gunmen had full control of the mall and it was not clear how the standoff ended.
New modus operandi
The area around the mall, located in a busy commercial area of Baghdad al-Jadida, a populous Shiite-majority area on the eastern edge of the Iraqi capital, suffered extensive damage. Police said a counter-terrorism force from the intelligence services was deployed to the scene of the attack. "The security forces are now fully in control, the gunmen have been killed and the hostages have been freed," the police officer said. Helicopters flew overhead as security forces searched the scene and the roads gradually reopened. The IS statement said the attack was carried out by "four soldiers of the caliphate" and targeted Shiites. It said one of the IS members blew himself up in an explosives-laden vehicle when "the apostates sent reinforcements."IS claimed that a total of 90 people were killed or wounded but the group has exaggerated the number of casualties caused by its attacks in previous such statements. IS has suffered a number of military setbacks across Iraq in the past year. Security officials say fierce battles and relentless air strikes have depleted its manpower. Analysts see that as a reason for the drop in attacks targeting civilians in the capital which were an almost daily occurrence two years ago. The Iraqi intelligence services announced on December they had detained 40 IS members as part of major swoop in the Baghdad area. They described the arrests as the continuation of an operation that saw them bust a car bomb-making cell in Baghdad earlier in 2015.

Mob Attacks Cologne Migrants as Probe Blames Refugees for NYE Violence
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 11/16/German authorities said Monday that nearly all suspects in the New Year's Eve violence against women in Cologne were "of foreign origin", as police blamed far-right thugs for reprisal attacks. The men who groped and robbed women in the chaotic year-end festivities emerged from a crowd of over 1,000 "Arab and North African" men near Cologne's main railway station, said Ralf Jaeger, interior minister of North Rhine-Westphalia state. Witness accounts and police reports indicated that "nearly all the people who committed these crimes were of foreign origin," including many recently arrived refugees, he said, adding however that still no formal charges had been laid. The sexual violence that marred the start of 2016 has shocked Germany and piled pressure on Chancellor Angela Merkel over her liberal stance towards refugees, after 1.1 million arrived last year from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries. Far-right groups have since vented their rage against Merkel and migrants at street protests, while xenophobic mobs were blamed for a spate of attacks against Pakistani, Syrian and African men in Cologne on Sunday night. Police said groups linked to Cologne's extremist hooligan scene had used social media to organise gatherings in the inner city Sunday evening, among them known far-right extremists and members of local biker gangs. In one attack, some 25 men chased a man of African appearance who ran to seek protection among a group of six Pakistanis. "The pursuers then beat and kicked these young Pakistani men," said crime division chief Norbert Wagner. In another attack, eight people beat a 39-year-old Syrian at the central railway station. Two other assaults targeted three men from Guinea, and another Syrian man. Justice Minister Heiko Maas earlier warned that "those who now hound refugees -- on the Internet or on the streets -- have obviously just been waiting for the events of Cologne" and were now "shamelessly exploiting" the attacks. Jaeger also warned that "to label certain groups and stigmatize them as sexual offenders is not just wrong, but dangerous." Still, xenophobic protesters planned to take to the streets again Monday. After far-right protests erupted in Cologne Saturday, a sister group of the Islamophobic PEGIDA movement was due to rally after dark in the eastern city of Leipzig.
Turning point?
In Rome, Pope Francis urged European governments to keep welcoming migrants while acknowledging security and other concerns. He said the sheer size of the influx was causing "inevitable problems," as well as "fears about security, further exacerbated by the growing threat of international terrorism."
But the pontiff called on European leaders not to lose "the values and principles of humanity ... however much they may prove, in some moments of history, a burden difficult to bear."The scale of the New Year's Eve assaults has shocked Germany and put a spotlight on the record influx. Witnesses described terrifying scenes of hundreds of women running a gauntlet of groping hands, lewd insults, robberies and even rapes in the mob violence. Police said more than 500 complaints had been lodged since, 40 percent of them related to sexual assault. "It's not premature to speak of a turning point (after Cologne), or at least the reinforcing of a trend that had already started to take shape lately," Andreas Roedder, contemporary history professor at Mainz University, told AFP. With thousands of asylum seekers still streaming into Germany every day, Merkel has come under fire, even within her own conservative alliance, who want her to put a cap on the number of refugees. Merkel has not wavered from her stance but has adopted a firmer tone after Cologne, pledging to change the law to make it easier to expel convicted asylum seekers. Reflecting rising popular fears, a poll by broadcaster RTL found that 57 percent of Germans feared crime would rise along with the record migrant influx, while 40 percent disagreed. Nevertheless a majority -- 60 percent -- said their opinion of foreigners had not changed, while 37 percent said they had become more critical and negative about newcomers.

France demands Russia end Syrian operations
Reuters, Paris Monday, 11 January 2016/Syria and Russia must stop military operations against civilians and in particular put an end to the "ordeal" taking place in the besieged city of Madaya just two weeks before Syrian peace talks are scheduled, France's foreign minister said on Monday. "We discussed the absolute necessity that Syria and Russia end their military operations against civilians and in particular the ordeal in Madaya and other cities besieged by the regime," Laurent Fabius told reporters after meeting Syrian opposition coordinator Riad Hijab. Fabius reiterated that President Bashar al-Assad could not remain in power and said Paris would consult the U.N. Security Council to pressure Syria to end indiscriminate attacks. He is due to meet the U.N.'s special envoy to Syria later on Monday.

Observatory: 8 children dead after Russia strike hits Syria school
AFP, Beirut Monday, 11 January 2016/At least eight children were killed along with their teacher in a Russian air strike that hit a school in Syria's Aleppo province on Monday, a monitor said. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the strike in the town of Anjara also injured at least 20 people, all of them children and teachers. The group said there had been heavy air strikes and clashes between government and rebel forces since Sunday in the northern province, which is controlled by a mixture of moderate and Islamist rebels. The Britain-based monitor also reported that three children were killed by rebel rocket fire on a government-held district in Aleppo city. Control of the city has been divided between government forces in the west and rebel fighters in the east since shortly after fighting began there in mid-2012. Government forces regularly carry out air raids on the east, while rebels fire rockets into the west. The situation is largely reversed in the countryside surrounding the city, with rebels controlling much of the area west of Aleppo, and the government present to the east. Russia, a staunch ally of President Bashar al-Assad's regime, began air strikes in support of the central government in late September. It says it is targeting the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group and other "terrorists," but a third of those killed in its strikes have been civilians, according to the Observatory. The monitor said in late December that Russian air strikes had killed more than 2,300 people since they began on September 30, among them 792 civilians. Moscow has slammed as "absurd" allegations that its strikes have killed civilians. Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Monday that Russia's bombing campaign in Syria was not targeting civilians. "Russia does not conduct operations against civilians," Zakharova told AFP. More than 260,000 people have been killed in Syria since the conflict began in March 2011 with anti-government protests.

Yemen ISIS-linked militants kill senior officer in Aden
The Associated Press, Cairo Monday, 11 January 2016/Yemen’s ISIS-linked militants say they have killed a senior security officer in the southern port city of Aden. The militants on Monday said in an online statement that they killed Col. Ali Saleh al-Yafie and posted photographs purported to show the killing in Aden’s Mansoura neighborhood. The statement could not be independently verified but it was posted on an ISIS website that has had similar claims in the past. It did not say when the Yemeni colonel was killed. The ISIS-linked militants in Yemen and the country’s al-Qaeda branch, considered by Washington to be the most dangerous affiliate of the network, have exploited the chaos of Yemen’s civil war to stage significant land grabs and expand their control in the south.

Palestinian attempts to stab Israeli soldier, shot: Army
AFP | Jerusalem Monday, 11 January 2016/A Palestinian tried to stab an Israeli soldier in the occupied West Bank on Monday but was shot and arrested, the Israeli army said. “A Palestinian armed with a knife attempted to stab a soldier during a security check near the community of Hermesh, southwest of Jenin,” an army statement said, referring to the area in the northern West Bank. “Forces responded and shot the assailant, thwarting the attack. The attacker is receiving medical treatment at the scene,” the statement added, without giving details on the severity of his wounds. Palestinian security sources identified the man as 18-year-old Zaid al-Ashqar, from Saida village near Tulkarem. Twenty-two Israelis and an American have been killed in Palestinian attacks including stabbings, car rammings and gunfire targeting security forces and civilians since October 1. An Eritrean was also killed. At the same time, 146 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, most while carrying out attacks. Israel has employed a raft of security and punitive measures in a bid to stem attacks.

Saudi Arabia arrests 49 ‘terror suspects’ in 10 days
Mishal al-Otaibi, Saudi Gazette Monday, 11 January 2016/Forty-nine suspects on terror charges were caught during the past 10 days in a preemptive crackdown in various parts of Saudi Arabia, security sources said. The sources said the suspects surrendered without any resistance. They consisted of 36 Saudis, six Syrians, four Yemenis, a Sudanese and a Filipino. Last September Saudi’s Interior Ministry announced that it intercepted a terror cell during four simultaneous operations in Riyadh and Dammam. The ministry confirmed that the cell was linked to the suicide bomber behind the Abha mosque attack that took place last August. During the Riyadh operation, Saudi forces arrested Faysal Hamed al-Ghamdi, a wanted man who had threatened to kill his father. Another suspect Aqeel Ameesh al-Mutairy was killed during heavy clashes during the last September raid. Official figures put the number of terror suspects arrested in Saudi Arabia in the last seven years at 4,777.

Tunisia's Islamist Ennahda becomes biggest in parliament
Reuters | Tunis Monday, 11 January 2016/Tunisia’s Islamist Ennahda Party became the biggest in parliament after more lawmakers in President Beji Caid Essebsi’s Nidaa Tounes party resigned on Monday over the role of his son, saying they feared a return of the hereditary transfer of power. The rift does not present an immediate threat to the coalition government, which includes Ennahda, but it comes at a delicate time as the North African state struggles to contain militant violence and encourage economic growth. With a new constitution and free elections, Tunisia has been praised as a model of democratic transition since the ouster of Zine Abidine Ben Ali and has mostly escaped the violent upheaval seen in other countries in the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. Divisions have been growing inside Nidaa Tounes, a secular party formed after the 2011 revolt, since a dispute emerged last year between a wing of the party led by the president’s son, Hafedh Caid Essebsi, and another led by Mohsen Marzouk, one of its founders. After the first resignations last week, two more lawmakers said they were resigning from Nidaa Tounes on Monday, bringing the total to 19. That leaves the party with 67 lawmakers in the 217-member congress, while Ennahda has 69. Those who have resigned, including Marzouk, say they will form a new party. They said their fears Hafedh Caid Essebsi was seeking control of the party were reinforced on Sunday when he was appointed to its central committee as legal representative and general secretary. They have denounced what some see as a return of the autocratic style of the Ben Ali era. Essebsi’s backers have dismissed claims of a dynastic handover. The resignations may complicate attempts to push through sensitive reforms that Tunisia’s international lenders are demanding to curb public spending and kickstart an economy hit by three major Islamist militant attacks last year.

Palestinian on hunger strike in Israel in critical condition
AP | Ramallah (West Bank) Monday, 11 January 2016/The condition of a Palestinian journalist on a 48-day hunger strike in an Israeli jail is deteriorating, the man’s wife and a Palestinian official said Monday. Mohammed al-Qeq is protesting his six-month sentence without trial or charge, under a measure called administrative detention. Israel’s internal security agency Shin Bet did not immediately respond to a request for comment. “Al-Qeq is in critical condition after 48 days in hunger strike and his life is at risk,” said Issa Qaraqe, the Palestinian minister of prisoner affairs. Al-Qeq is being monitored in an Israeli hospital, according to Israel’s prison service, which would not comment on his condition. His wife, Faihaa al-Qeq, said Israel “accused him of incitement.”Al-Qeq, 33, works as a correspondent for the Saudi channel Al-Majd and also appears as an analyst on channels linked to the Islamic militant group Hamas. Israel has arrested him in the past for his activities with Hamas’ student organization. He was arrested Nov. 21. Palestinian prisoners have used hunger strikes before to draw attention to their detention without trial or charges. Al-Qeq is the first journalist to do so. Fearing that a fasting detainee’s death could spark violence, Israel has at times acceded to hunger strikers’ demands by agreeing to release them at the end of their terms of detention. Israel sometimes extends the administrative detention of suspects. A contentious law passed last year allows Israel to force-feed a hunger striker if his life is in danger, even if the prisoner refuses. Israel’s medical establishment has protested the law, and there are no known instances of a prisoner being force-fed. Also Monday, the Israeli military said forces shot and wounded a knife-wielding Palestinian who the military said attempted to stab a soldier in the West Bank. The Palestinian’s condition was not immediately known.

China envoy calls for restraint between Saudi and Iran
Reuters, Beijing Monday, 11 January 2016/A Chinese envoy who visited Saudi Arabia and Iran over the past week has called for both countries to exercise calm and restraint amid an on-going feud between the two countries, in a rare diplomatic foray into the region by Beijing. Tensions between the Sunni Muslim kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Muslim Iran have escalated since Saudi authorities executed Shi’ite preacher Nimr al-Nimr on Jan. 2, triggering outrage among Shi’ites across the Middle East. In response, Iranian protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran and its consulate in Mashhad, prompting Riyadh to sever relations. Tehran then cut all commercial ties with Riyadh, and banned pilgrims from traveling to Mecca. Other Arab countries have recalled envoys to Iran and the United Arab Emirates downgraded relations in solidarity with Saudi Arabia. In separate statements on its website on Monday, China’s Foreign Ministry said Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Ming met senior Saudi and Iranian officials on his trip. While in Saudi, Zhang talked about the situation between Saudi Arabia and Iran and “hopes the relevant parties maintain calm and exercise restraint, step up dialogue and consultations and jointly promote an amelioration of the situation”, the ministry said. In Iran, Zhang repeated the message about calm and restraint, adding China hopes for the maintenance of peace and stability in the region. Both countries expressed their appreciation for China’s role in the region, the statements added. While relying on the region for oil supplies, China has tended to leave Middle Eastern diplomacy to the other five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council - the United States, Britain, France and Russia. But China has been trying to get more diplomatically involved, especially in Syria, recently hosting both its foreign minister and opposition officials.

Putin: I want global action against terrorism
Reuters, Moscow Monday, 11 January 2016/Russia wants to fight terrorism jointly with the rest of the world, President Vladimir Putin said in an interview published on Monday, while again accusing the West of exacerbating international crises that had contributed to it. “We are faced with common threats, and we still want all countries, both in Europe and the whole world, to join their efforts to combat these threats, and we are still striving for this,” Putin said in a wide-ranging interview with Germany’s Bild newspaper. “I refer not only to terrorism, but also to crime, trafficking in persons, environmental protection, and many other common challenges,” he said. “Yet this does not mean that it is us who should agree with everything that others decide on these or other matters.” Russia’s air force is attacking targets in Syria and Moscow says it aims to undermine Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which has been joined by thousands of Russian citizens and now poses a serious threat to national security. The group claimed responsibility for downing a Russian airliner over Egypt in October, killing 224 people. But Russia has not joined a U.S.-led coalition carrying out strikes on ISIS, and Washington and its allies say Moscow’s strikes are only aimed at helping embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stay in power. Putin said previous Western military interventions in Iraq and Libya had contributed to an upsurge in terrorism in these countries and elsewhere, reiterating what he had told the United Nations General Assembly in September. He hit out at NATO’s expansion toward Russia’s borders after the Soviet Union’s demise in 1991 and at an anti-missile shield being erected by the United States, accusing the West’s expansion after the Cold War of exacerbating international crises. Putin has repeatedly called the toppling of Ukraine’s former President Viktor Yanukovich in 2014 after months of pro-European street protests “a coup d’etat”, and has accused the West of inspiring and assisting it.

16,000 Syrian Refugees Stuck at Jordan Border
Naharnet/Agence France Presse/January 11/16/The number of Syrian refugees stuck on the border with Jordan has climbed from 12,000 to nearly 16,000 since December, the kingdom's government spokesman said on Monday. Mohamed Momani, who is also Jordan's information minister, said "around 16,000 Syrians are located in camps situated a few hundred meters from the Jordanian side (of the border) in no-man's land."The U.N. said in December that 12,000 Syrians were stranded on the border and urged Jordan to take them in, but Momani at the time dismissed the report as exaggerated. On Monday, he told AFP in written remarks that the refugees were receiving humanitarian assistance from Jordan as well as the U.N. and aid organizations. "The Syrians in these camps are being provided with their needs of supplies, tents and medications," he said, adding that there were also clinics inside the compounds. Jordan says it is hosting 1.4 million Syrian refugees who have fled the now nearly five-year war across the border, while the U.N. refugee agency UNHCR puts the number at 600,000. During the first two years of the Syrian conflict, 45 crossing points were open along the 378-kilometer (235 mile) frontier. There are now only two open, with the UNHCR saying they are located in rocky desert areas, devoid of water, shade or vegetation. Jordan has imposed strict screening of refugees at the border, saying the security measures are important to guarantee the safety of the country and the refugees. "Jordan's security is the first priority for the kingdom, nevertheless our borders remain open," said Momani. He said the 1.4 million Syrian refugees present in Jordan represent 20 percent of the country's total population. Jordan receives "up to 5,000 refugees per day at times. This has been mostly done at Jordan's expense," he added. The kingdom has repeatedly said that the influx of refugees is a burden that has strained its already poor resources in water and electricity and urged more help from the international community. "Jordan is willing to cooperate with any country which might be able to take refugees from the border camp," said Momani. "Jordan encourages international agencies to provide all the needed support," he added. Syria's war has killed more than 260,000 people and forced millions from their homes.

Air strikes target ISIS convoy near Libya’s Sirte
Reuters, Benghazi Monday, 11 January 2016/Unidentified aircraft attacked an ISIS convoy on Sunday near the Libyan city of Sirte, a resident told Reuters.
The coastal city has been controlled for months by the militant group, which has used it as a base from which to try to expand its presence in Libya. The witness account could not be verified, and the air force allied to one of Libya’s competing governments, based in the east of the country, said it had not carried out any strikes. Infographic: Air strikes target ISIS convoy near Libya’s Sirte. Also on Sunday, a spokesman for the Petroleum Facilities Guard said three boats had tried to attack the oil port of Zueitina. The guards repelled the attack before the boats reached the port, hitting one of the vessels and setting it on fire, Ali al-Hassi said. He said ISIS militants were suspected of carrying out the attack. Earlier this week ISIS launched an assault on the major Libyan oil terminals of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, which lie between Zueitina and Sirte. Clashes over three days left 18 guards dead and more than 50 injured, Hassi said on Sunday, giving an updated toll. They also triggered fires at seven oil storage tanks that were later extinguished. Zueitina oil port was closed in November in a move linked to the wider dispute between Libya’s rival governments. The export terminals at Es Sider and Ras Lanuf have been closed since December 2014. The U.N. is currently trying to win support for a plan to form a national unity government, though it has faced resistance from factions on the ground. Militants have taken advantage of a security vacuum that developed as numerous rival groups have competed for power and for Libya’s oil wealth since Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in 2011. On Thursday a suicide truck bombing claimed by ISIS killed dozens of police recruits in the Western city of Zliten, in one of the worst attacks of recent years.

Assad is picking and choosing his opposition
Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/January 11/16
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem has requested a list of "terrorist organizations" in order for him to take part in upcoming peace talks. But what about his own regime, responsible for 300,000 deaths since 2011? Muallem's demand is stomach-churning and illegitimate, particularly as it coincides with international shock over horrifying images of starving citizens in the besieged Syrian city of Madaya. But the Syrian top diplomat's statements were not out of character for the Syrian regime, which previously had the audacity to call for an independent investigation into the iconic Ghouta chemical attack of August 21, 2013. President Assad has also urged more joint international efforts to eradicate terrorism and the Islamic State of Syria and Iraq (ISIS). The Syrian regime has even gone further, by criticizing the world's handling of the Syrian refugee crisis. A traditional Arabic proverb comes to mind, describing “a person who kills, then walks in the funeral procession."With Russian military and political assistance, Bashar al-Assad’s regime has grown a lot more audacious recently, particularly seen in Muallem's frequent state visits, including to China. To escape its diplomatic isolation, the Syrian government has desperately invested in voicing commonly-heard international rhetoric on Syria. Now, the requested terrorist organization list is something the Syrian government is trying to utilize to improve its bargaining position in the upcoming peace talks in Geneva. Assad's regime is the source of all terror. Without establishing such fact and then acting accordingly, Syria's nearly five-year-old war will not come to an end. But is Damascus serious about participating in “Syrian-Syrian dialogue in Geneva without any foreign interference," as stated by Muallem? What about Assad-allied Russian and Iranian interference in Syria? It does not need much analysis to conclude that Muallem's comments were a dig at Riyadh’s recent landmark summit for the Syrian oppositions.
Although cautiously received as a gesture of goodwill from the Syrian government, Muallem's statements were indeed more of complication than help to the U.N.-proposed peace plan for Syria. They indicate that the Syrian government is ready to enter the peace negotiations but only if assured that the make-up of the opposition delegation is not that harmful to its interests. He is sure that the opposition delegation to future peace negotiations is expected to include the factions that were present in Riyadh. But is there even a Syrian opposition delegation that would be accepted by the Damascus government? The Syrian regime has already classified all opposition groups as terrorist, including the moderate Free Syrian Army and other rebel groups of Islamist tendency. As had happened in preparations for the Geneva peace conference on Syria in 2012, the Syrian government will again call for the inclusion of Syria's internal opposition parties that had already rejected the outcomes of Riyadh meeting.
It would be interesting if the Syrian government is asked to provide a list of opposition forces that it could accept as rivals on the negotiating table. Although Syria's opposition mosaic is complicated, it is generally made up of the exiled Syrian National Coalition (SNC) and its military arm, the FSA, and numerous rebel Islamist groups (excluding of course ISIS and Nusra Front.) All these have been rejected by the Syrian government which even sarcastically refers to the exiled Western-backed SNC as the “Istanbul council.” Assad's regime is the source of all terror. Without establishing such fact and then acting accordingly, Syria's nearly five-year-old war will not come to an end. Softening the international position on Assad is the biggest mistake the U.S. and other key players have made in handling the Syrian file although cautiously meant as a diplomatic tactic to resolve the crisis. The departure of Assad is certainly the unifying factor for all Syrian opposition groups which will never cease fighting unless this irreversible objective is realized.

Iran’s elections and a challenge named Hassan Khomeini
Camelia Entekhabi-Fard/Al Arabiya/January 11/16
While recent tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia is still considered a major topic in Iran, domestic news of two upcoming elections are also making headlines. Elections to nominate the next parliament and Iran’s Assembly of Experts (a clerical body that monitors the supreme leader’s performance and chooses his successor), are both scheduled on February 26. What it makes these elections significant is the age of the current supreme leader, who is 76 years old, and rumors have been circulating about his health and the role this next Experts Assembly can play in choosing the next leader. In a similar way, the new parliament can also play a supportive role towards the Assembly of Experts as well as influencing the next presidential election. It’s clear that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will do his best to influence the election to be sure that his successor will continue his footsteps. But the legitimacy of this election and the next supreme leader is also dependent on the people and their participation in the election. It’s clear that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will do his best to influence the election to be sure that his successor will continue his footsteps. To prevent any major changes in this ultra-conservative clerical body, the Council of Guardians plays a crucial role in monitoring the candidates at the qualification process and filtering reformers.
Thirty years ago, whenever the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Rouhalah Khomeini, spoke to his supporters, most of the time his favorite grandson, a fair little boy, was standing behind him. Today this boy is a grown 43-year-old man called Hassan Khomeini. He stepped out of the Khomeini household two weeks ago to nominate himself to run in the Assembly of Experts’ election. Counting on his grandfather’s name as an asset and his popularity, by having links to the reformist body of the system, he took a chance. However, there are now some reports that he has withdrawn from the race. Today, Iran is missing a charismatic political leader such as the deceased Khomeini or former President Mohammad Khatami to mobilize the nation. Amid the confusion over his candidacy, Hassan Khomeini has been confronted with challenges from the Council of Guardians to legally prevent him entering the race. They have called for all registered nominees to be tested on their knowledge in Islamic theology. Hassan Khomeni, who has been called an “Ayatollah” by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani and some other permanent clerics, has been teaching Dars-e-Kharij (the highest level of Islamic jurisprudence at the Qom seminary). When he registered, he told journalists: “My candidacy is with the aim of pursuing what Imam Khomeini said about defending until death the foundations of the Islamic Republic.”
Also, he says he has never received an invitation for the exam that Council of Guardians claims to have sent him. Meanwhile, the supreme leader has called on the nation to widely participate in the elections, saying: “Even if you don’t accept the system, for the sake of the nation, participate in the elections.”
Khamenei also said participating in elections would ward off foreign threats from “enemy frontiers” wishing to rout out the concept of the Iranian revolution. With this conspiracy that the supreme leader appears to believe in so greatly, Hassan Khomeini’s presence in the election can mobilize the voting crowds that Ayatollah Khamenei is looking for.

Can the private sector solve the Saudi unemployment problem?
Samar Fatany/Al Arabiya/January 11/16
A Commission for Job Generation and Anti-Unemployment was recently established to address the decline in oil prices and a youth unemployment rate of 29.43 percent among Saudis aged 15 to 25 as of 2013, according to International Labor Organization statistics. Economists welcomed the new initiative as the country has to deal with nearly 1.9 million Saudi youths who will be joining the job market in the next decade. This situation raises major challenges for policymakers, mainly to diversify the economy and increase employment opportunities for the swelling Saudi population. Thirty-seven percent of all Saudis are 14-years-old or younger, according to a 2011 paper from the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC. Ali Al-Zaied, director of human resources in Takamul Economical Solution Company, said that the reason for the failure of industrial companies to receive young graduates is their lack of sufficient training to prepare them to work in the industrial sector. “Most educational institutes need to work on modifying and developing their curricula and focus on creating artistic and technical workshops in order to produce graduates suitable for the industrial labor market,” he said.
Frustration among young people
Economists stress the need for immediate measures to absorb the young and growing working-age population into the workforce. Currently almost 185,000 students are studying overseas. The future development of Saudi Arabia into a diversified, knowledge-based economy will depend on a strong private sector. The level of frustration among young people is very high due to the inadequate opportunities for social mobility and their limited participation in social, cultural, economic and political life. This kind of environment is detrimental to progress and could lead to social turmoil and political unrest.
Economic researchers acknowledge the role of nearly 7.5 million foreigners (as of 2013) working legally in Saudi Arabia and their contribution to the Saudi economy. The country requires skilled manpower in large numbers to implement its ambitious development plans. Labor was imported and technical knowhow was purchased at the cost of national human-capital development. Sadly, the educational system has remained underdeveloped and the contributions of citizens continue to be marginalized and inefficient. There is total reliance on foreign labor in every aspect of life in Saudi Arabia.
Unfortunately, the present demographic imbalance is the result of an economic necessity. It is still very evident that Saudi Arabia will continue to rely on foreign labor. What makes it worse is the refusal of Saudi citizens to take on occupations that every modern economy requires which include unskilled menial positions. The young generation seek only government jobs and are reluctant to take on the much needed services of laborers, technicians, plumbers and domestic workers, due to cultural factors that make these jobs seem demeaning. Sadly, unemployment and the continued over-dependence on expatriates continue with no real solutions in sight.
Dependent on foreign labor
Meanwhile, many unemployed youth remain disgruntled because the only alternatives that are being offered to them are the menial jobs done by expatriates, limiting their social mobility. Omar Al-Ubaydli, program director at the Derasat economic and political research center, told Al-Arabiya News that any Gulf Arab country, not just Saudi Arabia, should change the attitudes regarding what some consider “unsociable” jobs. Other analysts warn that the country remains dependent on foreign labor in top-level positions and professions that are crucial to the infrastructure. This dependence has resulted in depriving citizens of the opportunity to occupy key positions, thus limiting their social status and economic contribution. The more threatening risk to society includes increased crime, ethnic hatred and civil discontent.
The sponsorship system is another negative aspect that blocks labor mobility, impedes productivity improvements and manipulates the market to enhance the dependency on foreign labor. However, scrapping the sponsorship system is not an easy task and it is highly unlikely to be implemented in the near future.
Under the current circumstances addressing the challenges facing the young remains very critical. “What is important right now for the government is to provide the right incentives for people to go into the private sector,” said John Sfakianakis, director of the Ashmore Group. “Boosting private sector growth cannot be achieved through increased government spending—rather the opposite,” said Giacomo Luciani, an energy expert at Sciences Po in Paris, who said the government needs to pressure the private sector to deliver its part. The future development of Saudi Arabia into a diversified, knowledge-based economy will depend on a strong private sector and its ability to attract and train young graduates and offer them the incentives to contribute to nation building. Economists also assert that the development of SMEs can offer hope for the unemployed. They urge continued facilitation of SMEs’ access to finance and other forms of support to further the development of this sector. Among the current initiatives that need extra support and more efficient implementation are the Kafala Program (initiated in 2006), which provides SMEs with access to credit (credit guarantees); the Saudi Credit and Saving Bank, which extends loans to SMEs; the establishment of specialized SME units within banks; and the setting up of SIMAH, the Saudi Credit Bureau. Meanwhile, the Commission for Job Generation and Anti-Unemployment is expected to come up with more innovative solutions to the rising unemployment problem that is a major concern for both the public and private sectors.

Prospects for mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran?
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/January 11/16
It was only natural for the international community to condemn the assault on Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran, which was reminiscent of previous attacks on the U.S. embassy in Tehran after which Americans were hold hostages for 444 days, during the Islamic Revolution. The U.N. Security Council’s condemnation was firm and was not linked to any preambles, given that the principle of not harming diplomatic missions is an absolute one. In truth, the U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon had made a mistake when he focused his denunciation in his first statement on Saudi Arabia’s execution of 47 people, including 43 Sunnis and 3 Shiites convicted of inciting terrorism, before mentioning in passing the attack on Saudi diplomatic missions, appearing as though justifying – even if unintentionally – the attack.
Interference
The majority of the international community rejects in principle the logic of the death penalty, but with notable exceptions such as the United States. Yet it is the right of Saudi Arabia to consider the U.N.’s positions to be interference in its internal affairs, while it is the right of the secretary general to stress opposition to the death penalty in general. The Islamic Republic of Iran, since its emergence in 1979, adopted a strategy of exporting the revolution, and remains determined to implement it. This is the battle it has clearly chosen. Riyadh is right when it notes the duplicity in international attitudes, which do not protest more than 1,000 executions carried out by Iran in the same vehemence as their condemnation of Saudi executions. Nevertheless, no capital can ignore the execution of 47 people in one go no matter what the causes of the execution are and regardless of the timing, which is very important. Now, after Riyadh’s decision to sever diplomatic ties with Tehran to protest what seemed to be an official Iranian blessing of the attack on Saudi embassies, coupled with statements by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei regarding “divine revenge” against Saudi for executing Shiite preacher Nimr al-Nimr (who has a history of inciting violence and terrorism) the question is this: What next? What is the magnitude of the Saudi message?
The Saudi-Iranian confrontation has shaken world capitals, sparking fears of further bloody proxy wars in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon, in addition to aborting all U.N.-led diplomatic efforts seeking solutions to the conflicts in Syria and Yemen. However, concerns this time went beyond proxy wars, to the possible serious implications and dimensions of Iranian meddling in Saudi internal affairs, particularly in the Shiite-dominated Eastern Province of the kingdom close to Bahrain. In Bahrain too, Iranian meddling has taken the form of subversion, incitement, and creation of terror cells though Lebanese Hezbollah and other groups. There have been several offers for mediation including from Russia, Turkey, Iraq, and Oman. But the United States did not offer to mediate, despite the open lines between Washington and Tehran, so much so that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry contacted Tehran before contacting Riyadh in an odd diplomatic move, given the long-standing alliance between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.
Tehran’s motives
Seizing the opportunity to mediate is very important. There is nothing fruitful about an open-ended estrangement without practical goals and specific objectives. Saudi delivered a clear message to Tehran as part of its quest to stop the international scramble to portray Iran as a peace advocate when it is a direct party to the war in Syria alongside the regime – recruiting militias and sending advisors in clear violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, yet with international consent. Iran’s reckless non-spontaneous attack on diplomatic missions exposed Tehran’s motives. However, the international community has a weak memory in the time of the U.S. love affair with the Islamic Republic and Obama’s appeasement of Tehran in the name of the nuclear deal. Therefore, pragmatism is necessary even if national pride is at its height right now, and even if the prevailing trend is saying no voice must be louder than the voice of battle. Thinking calmly is what is needed, no matter how justified being incensed is at the moment. For this reason, the message sent by Saudi diplomacy by receiving U.N. envoy on Syria Staffan de Mistura was wise. Saudi envoy to the U.N. Abdullah al-Mouallemi said Riyadh will not boycott the U.N. because of the secretary general’s positions, and that it would continue to take part in the Vienna talks on Syria despite the estrangement with Tehran, which reflects the cool-headedness and prudence of Saudi diplomacy.
Pragmatism says: Choose your battles so you don’t have to fight too many that would drain you militarily and economically. Pragmatism requires a clear and realistic specification of priorities as well as the determination of the cost of victory and the cost of defeat. Pragmatism, unfortunately, is not always ethical and principled. It's the art of necessity.
The Islamic Republic of Iran, since its emergence in 1979, adopted a strategy of exporting the revolution, and remains determined to implement it. This is the battle it has clearly chosen. Today, Iran and Russia are in a firm, solid alliance that has proven its robustness in Syria, taking advantage of America’s weakness. The Russian-Iranian-Hezbollah axis, blessed by China, has worked to guarantee the survival of Bashar al-Assad in power and guarantee Russian and Iranian influence in Assad’s Syria and the Middle East for a long time to come. On the other hand, Iran is confident of U.S. courting, and wears it like a ring on its finger. Former U.S. President George W. Bush gave Iraq to Iran on a platter of silver, and current U.S. President Barack Obama has gifted Iran his Syria failure. Both U.S. presidents effectively made Iran a regional leader, deliberately turning a blind eye to its violations and terrorist attacks that Washington is aware of in details, and its meddling in the Arab countries with a view to export the Iranian revolution.
Pragmatism requires deep reflection on the meaning and dimensions of the decline of the alliance relationship between the United States and the Gulf Arab states, and even Washington’s willingness to replace the Arab ally with an Iranian ally. Realistically speaking, it should be recognized that Washington would bless a victory by Iran, Russia and Hezbollah in Syria. Realistically, it must be taken into account that Israel has returned to supporting Bashar al-Assad remaining in power, and that its relation with Iran have become increasingly one of appeasement if not cooperation in the fight in Syria under the title of combatting Sunni terrorism led by ISIS and similar groups. Realistically speaking, one should remember the terror attacks of 9/11 has a cost Arabs must bear, while also recalling that Arab oil is no longer an American need.
Faced with this reality, it is necessary to do a cost-benefit analysis for any measures going forward, in light of the crises and conflicts in the Arab region.
Internal security
Clearly, the absolute priority is for the internal security of all Gulf states. But clarifying the red lines requires both an advancement strategy and an exit strategy, and awareness of the strengths of the other side. Saudi national security is the subject of unanimous agreement in the GCC, representing Gulf national security. If Russia or Oman, for example, want to act as mediators between Saudi and Iran, they must be asked to seek serious Iranian pledges with U.S. guarantees to cease incitement and interference in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia and in Bahrain. This is an absolute priority that the GCC must clarify, and this is the battle that it must choose. The second battle is in Yemen, which is also part of Saudi national security. Iran has chosen to fight a proxy Yemen with Saudi Arabia to turn it into a quagmire for the Saudis, who would then be drained in their own “Vietnam” there. Iran itself has managed to dodge drowning in its own Vietnam in Syria, thanks to Russia’s U.S.-sanctioned intervention there.
There is no international partner undertaking in Yemen what Russia is undertaking in Syria, so there is no alternative to seeking an exit strategy for Yemen. As it seems, this is now only possible through the diplomatic efforts led by U.N. Envoy Ould Cheikh Ahmed. Syria, unfortunately, is not a battle that can be won. The international community has decided not to fight a regime that has massacred its people, but to fight ISIS even if this requires an alliance with the “devil”. Syria will remain a dark stain on the world’s conscience, and a wound that will prevent celebrating any victory no matter how much some might delude themselves into believing otherwise. Pragmatism requires counting the losses and choosing the battles. Pragmatism teaches that nothing lasts forever and that today’s loss could be an investment in tomorrow, if prudence rather than emotion is pursued.
The ongoing Islamic Revolution in Iran has borne fruit for the mullahs in Tehran, but it has cost Iran dearly over four decades of isolation and missed prosperity and progress. This is not a victory. By contrast, the Gulf in the past four decades developed and built astonishing cities, and integrated itself with the world despite some restrictions on freedoms. In the end, history does not stop with a U.S. administration. Loyalty is not something U.S. policies are known for, but rather, abandonment and betrayal of allies is the reputation Washington has earned for itself. Yet, emotional and reactive haphazardness must be avoided in Saudi-Iranian relations.

The Saudi state vs the Iranian revolution
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Now Lebanon/January 11/16
After two failing wars to spread democracy and a messy Arab Spring, America has finally eased its pressure on its allies to democratize. Today, a brutally pragmatic Washington realizes that the record of human rights and press freedom — whether in Turkey, Egypt, Saudi and maybe soon Iran — does not make or break alliances. This is why America’s campaign against the Saudi execution of 47 of its citizens stood out. If Washington were protesting capital punishment in principle, such objection did not square with the 27 executions that America saw in 2015. If Washington were objecting that Riyadh had killed dissidents, the US often does the same by raining death from above — without due process — on terrorists around the world. So America has no problem with capital punishment per se, which makes protesting the Saudi execution political, and strategically problematic. The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is not one between Sunnis and Shiites as such, but rather a confrontation between a state and a revolution. The Islamic Republic of Iran was the brainchild of its founder Ayatollah Khomeini. It also borrowed Marxist ideas that were circulating amongst dissidents as evident in the literature of revolutionaries like Ali Shariati. Iranian revolutionaries transformed Marx’s slogan “workers of the world unite” to “downtrodden of the world unite.” Hussain, the third Shiite Imam who was slain in Karbala in 680 CE and whose memory is observed annually, became the symbol of these downtrodden.
Iran’s Islamism is similar to communism, in that Iran believes in the expansion of its brand of Islam through non-state actors or “popular militias,” modeled after its own Basij and Pasdaran. Just like how Iran’s Supreme Leader and Revolutionary Guards overshadow the president and the regular army, Iran has seen to it that Lebanon’s Hezbollah becomes stronger than the Lebanese state and army. In Iraq too, Iran has been copying its “militia state” model by creating, arming and funding groups that can outmuscle the state and the army. And since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution, Iran has poured money, arms and training on newfound militias that will certainly replace, or at least undermine, President Bashar al-Assad and his regime should the Iran-Assad alliance prevail in the ongoing Syrian war. Saudi Arabia, for its part, hangs on to the model of the nation state and strives to empower neighboring governments.
After the murder of pro-Saudi Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, Riyadh invested in the creation of a UN tribunal that indicted five Hezbollah operatives, who stay defiantly at large and under their party’s protection.
After the 2006 war, while Iran reimbursed Lebanese Shiites with cash, Saudi Arabia parked $300 million at the Central Bank to shore up Lebanon’s Foreign Currency reserves and protect the national currency against collapse. After the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011, Islamist terrorist bombers found their way to Beirut’s Shiite neighborhoods. Iran’s response was to double down on Hezbollah fighting in Syria. Saudi Arabia, for its part, donated $3 billion to the Lebanese Army to buy French arms. In Iraq, as Iran strengthened its Shiite militias that fight both ISIS and the Sunnis, Saudi Arabia reopened, last week, its embassy in Baghdad for the first time in 25 years. After Washington vouched for him, Riyadh now bets on Prime Minister Abadi and the Iraqi state and hope that the two can subdue Iran’s militias and restore Iraqi sovereignty.
In Yemen, where the pro-Iranian Houthi militia had invaded Sanaa and ejected the government of Abdrabbu Mansour, Saudi Arabia sent in its army to reign in Yemen’s insurgents and reinstall the government. Only in Syria, Saudi Arabia’s policy has stood out in supporting armed opposition factors. Yet this Saudi policy came only after Riyadh had jumped through hoops in an attempt to solve the crisis through diplomacy. Saudi Arabia first went to the Arab League, then to the UN General Assembly since Russia had shut down the Security Council. Despite all its efforts, Saudi Arabia was left with one choice: To arm Syrians that are defending themselves against Assad’s atrocities, including his chemical attacks.
And yet, under pressure from Washington, which clearly prefers Assad to prevail, Saudi Arabia’s arming of opposition factions had been subdued and minimal. When Washington said that Riyadh should not have executed that Saudi Shiite cleric, America was effectively helping Iran export its Islamic revolution. If Riyadh has to take into consideration Tehran’s position on how to deal with its Shiite citizens, then Saudi sovereignty will be undermined in favor of pan-Shiism. Had Riyadh held back on executing Nimr — regardless of how repugnant capital punishment is — then it would have set a precedent that whenever it wants to deal with its Shiite citizens, it has to go first through Tehran. Such a dynamic would ensure Iran’s status as the cross-border leader of all Shiites, just like the Soviet Union saw itself as the sponsor of communists anywhere around the globe. Before America’s government and mainstream media get all riled up against the deplorable execution of Saudi citizens and take Iran’s side, they better understand what they are getting themselves into.
**Hussain Abdul-Hussain is the Washington Bureau Chief of Kuwaiti newspaper Alrai. He tweets @hahussain

Germany Just Can't Get It Right
Douglas Murray/© 2016 Gatestone Institute/January 11/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7201/germany-migrant-policy
How can you explain why Germany, which in the 20th century had such a gigantic anti-Semitism problem, would import so many people from those areas of the world which now have the same gigantic anti-Semitism problem?
The police water cannons were not in evidence on New Year's Eve to break up the migrant gangs committing violent crimes against women. Instead they were used to break up a lawful demonstration of people opposed to such violent attacks on women.
The late Robert Conquest once laid out a set of three political rules, the last of which read, "The simplest way to explain the behavior of any bureaucratic organization is to assume that it is controlled by a cabal of its enemies." This rule comes in handy when trying to understand the otherwise clearly insane and suicidal policies of Chancellor Merkel's government in Germany. These policies only make sense if the German government has in fact been taken over by a cabal of people intent not on holding Germany together but on pulling it entirely apart. Consider the evidence.
There can be few other explanations for why Chancellor Merkel's government last year let in more than one million people (about 1.5% of the current German population) without having any idea of who they were, where they came from or what they think. No democratic leader could possibly push through such a startling measure. How else can you explain why a country that in the 20th century had such a gigantic anti-Semitism problem, would import so many people from those areas of the world which, in the 21st century, now have the same gigantic anti-Semitism problem?
A document that was leaked late last year from the German intelligence service warned that the country is "importing Islamic extremism, Arab anti-Semitism, national and ethnic conflicts of other peoples..." How to explain a government and security service policy which allowed this to happen? Or a Chancellor who, when asked a very lightly critical question about all of this by a concerned German citizen, responded with a long disquisition that failed to answer even one part of the pertinent point?
More up-to-date, it is worth considering events since New Year's Eve. As the world now knows, that was when around 100 women were subjected to rape, harassment and sexual molestation by a huge crowd of migrants in the centre of the city of Cologne. It has now emerged that the first response of the Cologne police to this major incident was to hold back information about the identity of the attackers. Whether the police thought they could get away with that or not, this lie has now poured fuel onto the flames of public anger by demonstrating that the police, like the government and much of the media, are intent on misinforming the public about what is going on in their country, rather than keeping them truthfully briefed about it.
The next German police response to suggest that they, too, must have been taken over by a cabal of their enemies -- intent on whipping up rather than dampening public concern -- came a week after this attempted cover-up. At protests this past weekend, the Cologne police wheeled out water-cannons to hose down protestors and disperse them. Of course, these water cannons were not in evidence on New Year's Eve to break up the migrant gangs committing violent crimes against German women. Instead, they were used to break up a lawful demonstration of German people opposed to such violent attacks on women. Unless you take Conquest's rule into account, there is no explanation for the deployment of water-cannon by the German police against people protesting the rapes, rather than deploying them against the rapists.
Then there is the "too late" response. This is the declaration by officials, after the rapes have taken place and once the government realizes that it has to say something, that the German authorities will not tolerate and do not want people in their country who do not hold contemporary, enlightened European views on women. As at least 75% of the migrants who arrived in Europe last year were young men from the Middle East and Africa, it might be noted that this point could have been more constructive had it been made somewhat earlier. But, as those people are now here in such vast numbers, a government intent on causing as much societal damage as possible would, of course, allow them in and then complain about something that they will now be able to do nothing about. All such "hardball" pronouncements by German politicians can now be seen for the puff-balls they really are.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel doubled down on her open-door asylum policy in a November 13, 2015 television interview, saying: "The Chancellor has the situation under control. I have my vision. I will fight for it." Mere insanity, incompetence or duplicity could not possibly explain the behaviour of a German government so obviously dedicated to its own pathetic end.
The conundrum for the rest of Europe now is what to do with the unwelcome knowledge of what is really going on. The realization that the most powerful and significant political and economic country in Europe has clearly been taken over by a cabal of its own enemies, intent on destroying the German nation rather than on protecting its citizens, will strike different Europeans in different ways. From the British point of view, one striking opportunity to respond will be presented in the referendum over Britain's membership (or not) in the European Union, slated to take place at some point next year. That Union – which has dissolved the continent's external and internal borders as a central pillar of its policy -- may now be seen by British voters for what it is. And so perhaps the best explanation of the behaviour of the German government is that it has been taken over some time ago by British Euro-sceptics, intent on finally bringing the EU to this dismal end. That is clearly the most likely explanation. Mere insanity, incompetence or duplicity could not possibly explain the behaviour of a German government so obviously dedicated to its own pathetic end.
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Blame Terror on Everyone but Terrorists!
Burak Bekdil/© 2016 Gatestone Institute/January 11/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7182/turkey-blame-terror
Muslims had the habit of slaughtering "infidel" Muslims for centuries when there was not a country called Syria or any "Islamophobia."
The main lack of logic seems to be that innocent people are attacked repeatedly by Muslims, so they become suspicious of Muslims; this suspicion is then called Islamophobia -- but it does not come out of thin air.
President Erdogan is explicitly saying that even non-terrorist Muslims have the potential to become terrorists if they happen to feel offended. So easily?
Pro-Sunni supremacists, such as the Turkish president and his top cleric, do not understand that cartoons do not kill people. But some of their friends do kill people.
There is hardly anything surprising in the way Turkey's Islamist leaders and their officials in the clergy diagnose jihadist terror: Blame it on everyone except the terrorists. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the inventor of the theory that "there is no Islamic terror," recently warned that "rising racism and enmity against Islam in Europe[an] and other countries" will cause great tragedies -- like the Paris attacks.
Put in another way, Erdogan is telling the free world that Muslims will kill even more people "à la Paris" if they face Islamophobia in the non-Muslim countries they have chosen to attack. This reasoning, in simple order of logic, means that Muslims will not kill innocent civilians in terror attacks if they do NOT face Islamophobia. That is not a convincing argument. Erdogan did not tell anyone whether the jihadists killed more than 100 people in Ankara last October because Muslims face Islamophobia in Turkey.
In Mr. Erdogan's thinking, there is one -- and only one -- culprit behind how jihadists cruelly visited Ankara, the Sinai skies, Beirut, Paris and San Bernardino in about the span of a month last year: Erdogan's worst regional nemesis, Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad.
Erdogan willingly ignores that jihadist terror, targeting "infidels," existed long before Assad came to power, and it will exist with or without Assad ruling Syria. Forget non-Muslim "infidels," in fact. Muslims had the habit of slaughtering "infidel" Muslims for centuries when there was not a country called Syria or any "Islamophobia." It is simply too manipulative to claim that the Shiite and Sunnis will stop bombing each other's mosques because Syria is not ruled by Assad, but instead by a Muslim Brother of Erdogan.
The president's other diagnosis (and prescription) to fight terror is that "Islam and Muslims should not be insulted because of what the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant does." He is right that 1.5 billion or so Muslims cannot be held accountable for whatever evil a few thousand jihadists do. But he is wrong that euphemizing [Sunni] Islam in the free world will stop the terrorism committed by those few thousand radicals. In fact, by threatening the free world that there may be more terror attacks if non-terrorist Muslims feel offended, President Erdogan is explicitly saying that even non-terrorist Muslims have the potential to become terrorists if they happen to feel offended. So easily? And, if yes, why? How come other offended people do not become terrorists?
More recently, Turkey's top Muslim cleric, Professor Mehmet Gormez joined in the childish propaganda that puts the blame for terror on people and things other than the terrorists. "Today," Professor Gormez said, "the damage caused [by] the [Islamic State] networks, distant from any belief, reason and wisdom, who engrave the name [of God] on their so-called flags is no less than the [damage caused by] cartoons [of the Prophet Mohammed] -- intolerable by any means -- by the pioneers of Islamophobia."
In this thinking, the men of Islamic State, who have the habit of beheading people and cheerfully releasing their videos, of raping "slave" women and of mass-killings in Muslims lands, do the same damage as people who just draw cartoons. And, in this thinking, cartoonists are as evil as the jihadists who killed them in the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris a year ago, or as evil as the other jihadists who killed over 130 people in the French capital in just one evening.
In the thinking of Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) and top Muslim cleric, Professor Mehmet Gormez (center), the men of Islamic State, who have the habit of beheading people, raping "slave" women and mass-killings in Muslims lands, do the same damage as people who just draw cartoons, such as Stéphane Charbonnier (right), the murdered editor of Charlie Hebdo.
Pro-Sunni supremacists, such as the Turkish president and his top cleric, do not understand that cartoons do not kill people. But some of their friends do kill people. Just as Erdogan's presidential jet left Riyadh, the Saudi capital, after a lucrative state visit, the Saudis decided to execute 47 Shiite men on charges of "terrorism," adding more fuel to the sectarian war in the Middle East. Erdogan is wrong. And so is his chief cleric. Muslim terrorists of this or that sect tend to kill each other in Muslim countries, not in non-Muslim lands. The main lack of logic seems to be that innocent people are attacked repeatedly by Muslims, so they become suspicious of Muslims; this suspicion is then called Islamophobia -- but it does not come out of thin air. It is the same Muslim terrorists of this or that sect who bomb each other's mosques in Muslim countries, not in non-Muslim lands. It is not the "Islamophobes" who kill Muslims and others.
At the 59th General Assembly of the United Nations in 2005, Spain's President Jose Luiz Rodriguez Zapatero proposed an initiative that went down in the world-politics wastebasket: "The United Nations Alliance of Civilizations." The initiative would galvanize international efforts against extremism, would forge international, intercultural and interreligious dialogue and all other niceties. It would defuse tensions between the Western and Islamic worlds. This author has lost count of the death toll from Islamist extremism since then. Any idea who was the co-sponsor of the UN initiative? A clue: It was the Turkish "sultan," who thinks that there is no such a thing as Islamic terror and argues that Islamophobia is to blame for any terror -- not Islamic extremism, of course.
**Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Turkey's New Base in Qatar
Olivier Decottignies and Soner Cagaptay/Washington Institute/January 11/16
Having a permanent military foothold in the Gulf will put Turkey in an elite group of powers, but more presence also means more exposure, whether to Saudi-Iranian tensions or other local crises.
In December, Ankara announced that it will establish a new military base in Qatar, putting Turkey in a small group of nations willing and able to project power in the Persian Gulf. As with France's previous creation of a military base in the United Arab Emirates, the Turkish effort signals the willingness of Washington's NATO allies to engage in the Gulf on their own. It also highlights the pairing of small but wealthy Gulf states with militarily powerful NATO countries in a series of nonexclusive partnerships, largely in anticipation of a resurgent Iran, among other perceived regional threats.
TURKEY AND QATAR: A SPECIAL BOND
To a certain extent, Qatar owes its existence to the special relationship it established with the Ottoman Empire in the late nineteenth century, when Anglo-Ottoman rivalry dominated Gulf politics. At the time, Qatar was a district under the Ottoman governorship of Najd, which itself fell under the Ottoman province of Basra. Elsewhere in the Gulf, Britain had established special relationships with the rulers of Kuwait and other emirates, drawing them into its sphere of influence and eventually opening the path to British control. A series of events in 1893 set Qatar on a different course, however.
That year, the Ottomans sent troops to Qatar to suppress local ruler Jassim bin Mohammed al-Thani's opposition to Istanbul's proposed administrative reforms. After the Ottoman forces were defeated, Qatar became an autonomous district in the empire, but also agreed to host Ottoman troops. Accordingly, the Ottoman military stayed in Qatar until the empire's collapse in World War I -- longer than in any other Gulf principality. Qatar's autonomous status under the Ottomans also prevented its absorption into the expanding Saudi state between 1899 and 1926, despite their shared Wahhabi creed.
More recently, a shared political vision regarding the Middle East has helped bring the Turks and Qataris even closer. Since the rise of Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) government in 2002, Doha and Ankara have thrown support behind various Islamist parties in the region, often forming de facto alliances in places such as Egypt and Syria (sometimes against the wishes of Riyadh, another key regional partner for Turkey). In Syria, rebel brigades backed by Turkey and Qatar made significant gains beginning in spring 2015, only to be stopped by Russian airstrikes later in the year. And in the Palestinian theatre, both countries have supported Hamas, undermining the Palestinian Authority.
United by history and recent political developments, Ankara and Doha are currently in talks to sign a Status of Forces Agreement, laying the groundwork for a long-term Turkish military presence. The agreement will likely include a "casus foederis" clause stipulating that if one country is attacked, the other will come to its assistance. This would put Qatar in a special league in Ankara's eyes. Apart from its NATO casus foederis obligation, Turkey has such arrangements with only two other partners: Northern Cyprus (which Ankara recognizes as a state) and Azerbaijan.
TURKEY WILL JOIN AN ELITE CLUB IN THE GULF
While the United States remains by far the largest provider of security in the Gulf, major NATO allies have been stepping up their presence. The French established a multipurpose air, sea, and ground base in the UAE in 2009, while British foreign secretary Philip Hammond took part in a groundbreaking ceremony for a similar project in Bahrain last November.
Key non-Western nations are also closing in on the region. Russia has deployed forces to Syria and established itself at bases in Latakia and Tartus, while China controls commercial operations at the Pakistani port of Gwadar, not far from the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
For its part, the Obama administration has pledged to refocus U.S. efforts toward the Far East and the Pacific Rim. This pivot and the nuclear deal with Tehran have caused anxiety among Arab Gulf countries contemplating the prospect of a resurgent Iran and still wary of Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
Therefore, Turkey's move in Qatar will make Ankara all the more valuable to its Arab partners, and to an American ally seemingly inclined to share the burden of Gulf security. The new base will also reinforce Qatar's autonomy vis-a-vis Saudi Arabia. In addition, it could contribute to the security effort for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, a major and persistently controversial endeavor for Qatar.
In military terms, the base will give Ankara a variety of options in the region. Although the distribution of future Turkish facilities and the timeline for their completion remain undisclosed, the French experience in Abu Dhabi shows some of the benefits Turkey could derive. The French base is currently used as a launchpad for strikes against Islamic State positions in Iraq and Syria. It is also home to the French Naval Command for the Indian Ocean (ALINDIEN), and a key support point for naval operations in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean -- including counterpiracy efforts along the Horn of Africa and elsewhere, to which Turkey contributes as well. In addition, the base has served as the backbone for expanding military cooperation with the UAE, a logistical platform for France's disengagement from Afghanistan, a training ground for desert and urban warfare, and a showcase for French military hardware and technology.
Along similar lines, the Turkish base in Qatar will reportedly include army, navy, air force, and special forces components as well as trainers for the Qatari military, allowing Ankara to show off its military hardware and perhaps boost sales of its Altay tanks, Firtina self-propelled howitzers, and other arms. It will also give the Turkish military the desert training medium it currently lacks, allow Turkish naval forces to conduct counterpiracy and other operations in the Persian Gulf, Indian Ocean, and Arabian Sea, and perhaps serve as a hub for future Turkish operations overseas. More symbolically, the base will signal the Turkish navy's return to the Indian Ocean for the first time since the 1550s, when the Ottomans unsuccessfully fought the Portuguese Empire for dominance there.
RISKS AND POTENTIAL BURDENS
Yet more presence in the Gulf also means more exposure, especially in light of escalating Saudi-Iranian tensions in which Turkey is assuming a position closer to Riyadh. For example, forces stationed at the new base in Qatar would be within easy reach of Iran's extensive missile capabilities. Thus far, Ankara and Tehran have maintained their economic ties and managed their political disagreements despite being rivals in Iraq and waging a proxy war in Syria. But the Gulf is a more volatile environment than Turkey's land border with Iran.
Indeed, while Turks and Persians have not engaged in military conflict since the early seventeenth century, Tehran is sure to regard the new base as a hostile move, and a sign of Turkish alignment with the Gulf's Sunni monarchies. Parallel indications that Ankara is normalizing relations with Israel are unlikely to improve the climate.
Finally, while a mutual defense agreement of the sort Ankara and Doha are contemplating is normally reciprocal, Turkey is much more likely to come to Qatar's help than the other way round. The mere fact of maintaining a permanent military presence on such a tiny territory as Qatar means that Ankara will durably underwrite the emirate's security. Even so, the Turks may still need an underwriter of their own. In a 2013 study on British military forces in the Gulf, Gareth Stansfield and Saul Kelly noted, "There is a danger that the deployment would be large enough 'to get us into trouble' but too small to get us out of trouble when it starts." The same applies to the 3,000-strong Turkish deployment envisaged in Qatar. Although the North Atlantic Treaty does not extend collective defense to allied forces deployed in the Gulf, the United States has its own military headquarters in Qatar, as well as its largest air base in the Middle East, al-Udeid. Washington is thus in the same boat as Ankara and could become the Turkish base's de facto guarantor.
Olivier Decottignies is a French diplomat-in-residence at The Washington Institute. Soner Cagaptay is the Institute's Beyer Family Fellow and director of its Turkish Research Program.

How Obama Created a Mideast Vacuum
Dennis Ross/Washington Institute/Politico/January 11/16
By taking an overcautious approach in Syria, the president has highlighted America's failure to have an open discussion about the real strategic lessons of the Iraq war.
Few issues have confronted President Barack Obama with tougher dilemmas than Syria. Over the course of the nearly five years of the war within Syria, Obama has faced choices on how the United States should respond and he consistently decided to do the minimum. From the outset, when Bashar Assad's response to calls for reform was draconian and turned peaceful demonstrations into an uprising, the president's first instinct was avoidance. He looked at Syria and he saw entanglement in another ongoing Middle East conflict where our involvement would be costly, lead to nothing, and potentially make things worse. In nearly every meeting on Syria when presented with possible options to affect the Syrian civil war, the president would ask "tell me where this ends."
He was surely right to ask this question. But he failed to ask the corollary question: Tell me what happens if we don't act? Had he known that not acting would produce a vacuum in which a humanitarian catastrophe, a terrible refugee crisis, a deepening proxy war and the rise of ISIL in Iraq and Syria would occur, his responses might have been different. However, it was hard for him to ask that question because when he looked at Syria, he saw Iraq.
Given the painful legacy of the Iraq War, it was not surprising that he did so. In his eyes, Iraq was a colossal mistake. He had run against it. He had been elected to get us out of Middle East wars not into them. But was Syria really Iraq? As someone who believed (wrongly) that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, I made the mistake of supporting the Iraq War. Surely, other proponents of the war should be willing to acknowledge now that it was wrong to seek regime change and not understand the vacuum that we would create in doing so; it was wrong to go to war without a serious, well-thought out plan for what it would take to create a credible transition, including the forces on the ground -- military and police -- needed to ensure security and the means to establish governance; it was wrong for us to become the administrator of Iraq, becoming the symbol of occupation, instead of having a United Nations interim administration; it was wrong to go to war without thinking through the consequences of unleashing a Shia-Sunni conflict that might not be limited to Iraq.
But Syria has always been a different issue. This was not an American invasion of a country but an internal uprising against an authoritarian leader. Assad consciously made it a sectarian conflict, believing he could survive only if the Alawites, and other minorities, saw their survival depending on his. Soon, thereafter, it was transformed into a proxy war largely pitting Saudi Arabia and Turkey against Iran. A vacuum was created not by our replacing the Assad regime but by our hesitancy to do more than offer pronouncements -- by overlearning the lessons of Iraq, in effect. And, that vacuum was filled by others: Iran, Hezbollah and Iran's other Shia militia proxies; Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar; Russia; and ISIL. Unless the U.S. does more now to fill this vacuum, the situation will spin further out of control.
In many ways, the vacuum in Syria has been compounded by the sense that the U.S. is retrenching in the region, creating a larger void that has helped to produce the increasing competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Iranians saw they ran little risk with the United States as they ramped up their regional activism and made the Qods force -- the action arm of the Revolutionary Guard outside of Iran -- more prominent in both the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts. Indeed, Qassem Suleiman, the head of the Qods forces, who was previously a shadowy figure, has become a very public presence appearing at times on the ground during the battles over Tikrit in Iraq, al Qusayr in Syria, and other places in both countries. For the Saudis, the nuclear deal and the greater Iranian regional involvement fed their perception that the Obama administration was not prepared to set any real limits on Iran -- or act on its red lines. As a result, it has decided to draw its own lines. It has done so in Yemen and will probably find it difficult to extract itself. Its execution of Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr may have been done as much for domestic reasons, particularly given the number of Sunni Al Qaeda operatives that were being executed at the same time, but the Saudis knew the Iranians would react. They had, after all, threatened the Saudis with retribution if they put him to death.
The Saudi-Iranian competition probably won't escalate into direct conflict but will make them see the existing proxy wars in strictly zero-sum terms. It will surely make it harder for either to be willing to back down in Syria, and is bound to complicate the administration's hopes to use the Vienna diplomatic process to, in its words, "bring peace and security to Syria." Even without the deepening Saudi-Iranian divide, the prospects for Vienna were not great and, in any case, depend far more on Vladimir Putin: he has the ability to force the Assad regime to respect a ceasefire, stop the barrel bombs, and permit the creation of humanitarian corridors for the delivery of food and medicine to the areas that the non-ISIL opposition controls. Only in such circumstances will there be any possibility of getting the Saudis, Turks and others who are supporting the opposition to persuade rebel forces to implement a ceasefire -- the key to the Vienna process going anywhere and an essential element of the Obama strategy for defeating ISIL. Indeed, so long as there is no meaningful ceasefire between the Assad regime and the non-ISIL opposition in Syria, the Sunni states and tribes will not truly join the fight against ISIL. (If nothing else, they need to be able to show that the onslaught against Sunnis in Syria has stopped and they have succeeded in protecting them.)
While President Obama sees Syria as a quagmire, Putin, for now, does not. He continues to believe that achieving his ends in the war is more important than ensuring that the Vienna process works at this stage. Moreover, whereas the president believes Putin will not want to repeat the mistakes of Afghanistan and will see the need to extricate Russia from Syria at some point, Putin shows little sign of being inhibited by his reading of Russian involvement in Afghanistan -- perhaps, knowing that he does not intend a similarly large ground presence and perhaps also believing that we will simply not raise the costs to him. Putin may well be driven by history, but it is his need to make up for the period of Russian weakness and U.S. primacy; he wants to demonstrate that Russia is a superpower and arbiter of events. He sees U.S. retrenchment, and the vacuum it has created, as an opportunity to reassert Russia's prerogatives in the Middle East. For President Obama, the Iraq experience continues to loom heavy in his calculus. Like presidents before him, he is being guided by his reading of an analogy. There is nothing wrong with that -- provided the analogy is apt.
Presidents and their advisers use analogies to shape judgments, particularly when facing hard choices that involve interventions. For Lyndon Johnson, "Munich" was the analogy that disastrously guided him on Vietnam: if we did not stop the communists there -- if we "appeased" them there -- we would face a much greater and more dangerous threat later on. In the bipolar world of the Cold War, the Munich analogy was powerful and blinded Johnson and those around him to the realities that communism was not monolithic, that the Soviets and Chinese were rivals, and that the war in Vietnam was nationalistic. George H. W. Bush was also guided by this historical reference point when responding to Saddam Hussein in 1990. Indeed, in Oval Office meetings, I heard him use the Munich analogy as we mobilized the world against the Iraqi leader after he seized Kuwait; for Bush 41, we could not let this aggression stand lest the law of the jungle replace his hopes for a new world order in the aftermath of the Cold War. President Bush may have used the analogy, but he also clearly defined a limited objective which was to reverse the aggression in Kuwait and not produce regime change in Iraq. The means employed matched the stated objective.
Analogies are going to be used, but they need to reflect real lessons. We have never had a serious discussion in this country about the lessons of the Iraq War. The critics of the war never acknowledged there was anything to discuss; indeed, they saw those who supported the war as fundamentally misguided. For their part, the proponents of the war have been so put on the defensive that they have been reluctant to acknowledge what they got wrong and how things might have been done differently.
We should be tempered by the Iraqi debacle, but we should not overlearn the lessons of the war and misapply them. Not every conflict in the Middle East is a replay of Iraq -- and our choices for responding to them should not be reduced to doing nothing or putting massive numbers of troops on the ground.
It may not be easy to find the Goldilocks solution where we don't do too much as in Iraq or too little as in Syria, but until we have a serious debate about Iraq (and for that matter Syria) and consider what needs to be learned from these conflicts, we will thrash around using false analogies and making bad judgments. Having some guidelines for what we might be prepared to do militarily would help -- e.g., being prepared to put some troops on the ground, including deploying spotters for directing air attacks, embedding forces with local partners perhaps to the battalion level, and using special operations elements for hit-and-run raids might allow us to manage our involvement while avoiding the slippery slope that the president has feared.
For sure, even these guidelines should be informed by our first asking hard questions in each case about our stakes and whether we should or need to act, and, if so, in what ways. It is obviously not just better but also necessary for local partners to assume a major responsibility in Middle East conflicts. President Obama is right about that. But we also need to know what will produce them -- who might actually fight and where, what will motivate them, what they would need from us, whether they believe we will stand by them, and whether we or others have leverage on them. In each case, we should assess the range of military options we have. We should be mindful of what the Pentagon calls mission creep. We are more likely to avoid that if, like George H. W. Bush, we define our objectives clearly from the start and make sure the means we are prepared to apply match them.
At a time when there is a general consensus on the need to fight ISIL but no consensus on how to do it, the Iraqi legacy and its lessons are the elephant in the room. Confronting it and having an open discussion about it -- especially in an election year -- may be a necessary part of producing a strategy that can work. It may also be essential for signaling those in the region and outside it that we will no longer be inhibited by its legacy.
**Dennis Ross, a former senior advisor to President Obama, is the counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute.

Saudi Defense Minister Visits Pakistan to Repair Strained Relations
Simon Henderson/The Washington Institute/January 11/16
The prince's latest foreign policy initiative is to confer with Islamabad, presumably seeking help with Iran, and potentially including military and nuclear cooperation.
On January 10, Saudi deputy crown prince and defense minister Muhammad bin Salman (aka MbS) held talks with military and political leaders in Pakistan. Coming just a week after the attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran and subsequent diplomatic crisis, the visit is probably best seen as an effort to secure bilateral relations that have been repeatedly strained by Iran-related issues in recent months. Last year, Pakistan refused to become involved in the Saudi-led coalition fighting Iranian-supported Houthi rebels in Yemen. And in December, Islamabad publicly expressed surprise when it was peremptorily named as a member of the new Saudi-led "antiterrorism coalition."Sunday's talks began with a briefing at the Pakistani army headquarters in Rawalpindi, hosted by chief of staff Gen. Raheel Sharif. That was followed by a meeting in Islamabad with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. (The two Sharifs are not related.) Saudi media emphasized the general's comments that any threat to the kingdom's territorial integrity would prompt a very strong response from Pakistan. And according to a Pakistani official statement, the prime minister welcomed the Saudi antiterror initiative and agreed that the two countries would work together on a counter-narrative to defeat extremism -- though it was not clear that Islamabad was actually joining the new Saudi coalition. Pakistani media also noted that a military cooperation agreement was concluded during the visit; no details were announced, however.
Since 1999, when former defense minister Prince Sultan conducted a controversial tour of the uranium enrichment plant and missile manufacturing facility at Kahuta outside Islamabad, all top-level Saudi visits to Pakistan have raised concerns about potential nuclear weapons cooperation. On that occasion, the Saudi delegation was reportedly shown a mockup of Pakistan's atomic bomb, and the nature of the visit spurred a strong diplomatic protest from Washington. MbS, the king's favored son and likely heir apparent (see PolicyWatch 2543, "The Next King of Saudi Arabia"), is increasingly seen as very ambitious and is already the most powerful person in Saudi Arabia, so it is difficult to imagine that his trip did not include a nuclear or missile dimension as well.
Another important detail is that General Sharif was a guest in Saudi Arabia on April 29, 2014, when the kingdom publicly displayed its long-range Chinese-supplied missiles in an apparent show of strength to counter Iranian missile development. The commander also visited Riyadh last November for talks with MbS, and the two reportedly discussed military cooperation in a December telephone call. Prime Minister Sharif likewise has close ties with Saudi Arabia, having once been exiled there for eight years after being overthrown in a military coup. Relations between Pakistan's civilian government and military remain tense. This weekend's visit suggests that MbS has not given up on making Pakistan part of the Saudi effort to confront Iranian influence in Yemen and elsewhere. But such cooperation may be elusive -- historically, the Pakistani military has not regarded Iran as a potential enemy.
For Washington, the diplomatic activity between two allies may be a mixed blessing. Saudi Arabia is an important friend of Pakistan and often generous in its financial support. But what Riyadh may want most from Islamabad is missiles and other weapons to counter Iran. And any effort to block such proliferation could upset the fragile political/military balance in Pakistan.
**Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute.

Russian air strikes slowed down over Syria by weather and maintenance
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 11, 2016
Russian air raids over Syria were seen to have tapered off in the first 10 days of the New Year to their lowest level since the onset of Moscow’s major intervention in Syria in late September, intelligence sources report. The slowdown was not officially reported or explained. But our sources point to three likely causes:
1. The Russian Air Force conducted an exceptionally intensive series of aerial strikes over northern and southern Syria in the course of December. This may have caused too many technical problems for the overtaxed ground crews to keep up with the necessary maintenance work.
2. Winter conditions in the region are subject to extreme and rapid change, often swinging between snow storms and warm air currents in the space of a few hours. Russian air and ground crews alike are finding it hard to adjust to Middle East weather.
3. The first days of January are Russia’s traditional holiday season. The Eastern churches celebrate Christmas on Jan. 7. Air crews may have decided to take a break from combat missions.
In case the slowdown was misinterpreted in the West, the Russian high command published a set of statistics Monday, Jan. 11 that painted a picture of intense activity.
In the first ten days of 2016, the Russian Air Force was said to have conducted 311 air strikes against 1097 targets.
The communiqué also noted that the first Syrian Air Force MidG-23 fighter plane was able to land at Hama air base. This central Syrian facility had been inactive for months because it was under rebel artillery fire and was now restored to full operation, thanks to Russian air bombardments of rebel forces.
From Hama, the Syrian army is now back in command of the Rte 5 highway linking Aleppo to Damascus, opening up for Syrian, Hizballah and pro-Iranian militia armies their only road link and supply route between central and northern Syria.
The recovery of Hama also provides a shield for defending Latakia, President Bashar Assad’s main power base.
Western intelligence experts estimate that the air strike statistics offered by Moscow are exaggerated. They tie the operation for the relief of the Hama air base with a project about to be launched by the Russian command from its base outside Latakia, namely, the transfer of Russian air force and special operations officers and forces teams to the Palmyra area, in readiness for an offensive to seize all the Syrian air facilities to the west of the town from ISIS control.
Russian tacticians in Syria appear to be focusing now on pushing rebel and Islamic State forces out of all the airfields they have captured, in order to get the Syrian Air Force flying and bombing again, and so ease the burden on the Russian flight crews in Syria.

http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletin16/english.january12.16.htm

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