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Bible Quotations For Today
Whoever becomes humble like this child is the greatest in the kingdom of heaven.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 18/01-05/"At that time the disciples came to Jesus and asked, ‘Who is the greatest in the kingdom of heaven? ’He called a child, whom he put among them, and said, ‘Truly I tell you, unless you change and become like children, you will never enter the kingdom of heaven. Whoever becomes humble like this child is the greatest in the kingdom of heaven. Whoever welcomes one such child in my name welcomes me."

In the case of an athlete, no one is crowned without competing according to the rules
Second Letter to Timothy 02/01-13: "Be strong in the grace that is in Christ Jesus; and what you have heard from me through many witnesses entrust to faithful people who will be able to teach others as well. Share in suffering like a good soldier of Christ Jesus. No one serving in the army gets entangled in everyday affairs; the soldier’s aim is to please the enlisting officer. And in the case of an athlete, no one is crowned without competing according to the rules. It is the farmer who does the work who ought to have the first share of the crops. Think over what I say, for the Lord will give you understanding in all things. Remember Jesus Christ, raised from the dead, a descendant of David that is my gospel, for which I suffer hardship, even to the point of being chained like a criminal. But the word of God is not chained. Therefore I endure everything for the sake of the elect, so that they may also obtain the salvation that is in Christ Jesus, with eternal glory. The saying is sure: If we have died with him, we will also live with him; if we endure, we will also reign with him; if we deny him, he will also deny us; if we are faithless, he remains faithful for he cannot deny himself.

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on january 18-19.16.htm
Nominating Michael Aoun For Presidency Post is historical Mistake/Elias Bejjani/January 18/16
Declaring Iranian tutelage over Lebanon/Khairallah Khairallah/Al Arabiya/January 18/16
Self-Exclusion in the Wrong Place/By Ahmad El-Assaad/January 18/16
A Gruesome Christmas under Islam/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/January 18/16
A Parable for Germany/David P. Goldman/Gatestone Institute/January 18/16
An unshackled Iran can only be countered by a firm Saudi Arabia/Faisal J. Abbas/Al Arabiya/January 18/16
Is ISIS preparing for its own demise/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/January 18/16
For economic revival, Iran needs more than just diplomacy/Camelia Entekhabi-Fard/Al Arabiya/January 18/16

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on january 18-19.16.htm
Nominating Michael Aoun For Presidency Post is historical Mistake
Geagea Nominates Aoun as President, Urges March 14 Alliance to Back him
Franjieh Meets al-Rahi, Says His Presidential Nomination still Stands
Saniora Meets al-Rahi, Urges against Taking 'Rushed Stances' on Presidency
Berri Seeks to Resolve Military Council Appointments Crisis
Kataeb Rejects 'Politicization' of Military Appointments
Rifi Submits Request to Cabinet to Refer Samaha to Judicial Council
Report: Second Saudi Grant Lamed for Unknown Reasons
New Samaha video leaked to press
Samaha Tells Interrogators about 'Explosives Trip' in Newly Leaked Video
Declaring Iranian tutelage over Lebanon
Self-Exclusion in the Wrong Place

Nominating Michael Aoun For Presidency Post is historical Mistake
Elias Bejjani/January 18/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/01/18/elias-bejjani-nominating-michael-aoun-for-presidency-post-is-historical-mistake/
Based on Michael Aoun's disastrous record and conduct, we strongly belief that Dr. Samir Geagea, the Lebanese Forces Party leader is committing a horrible mistake and an actual Lebanese-Christian sin in his impulsive and uncalculated decision to nominate the Trojan Michael Aoun for the presidency post. This conduct by Geagea is apparently based on personal and not national or Christian basis. Aoun is a creature who can not be trusted under any given circumstances because he is a demagogue, opportunist, allied with the Iranian-Syrian Axis of Evil and totally void of all hope and faith . This sinful nomination will create more hardships and difficulties for both Lebanon and the Lebanese Christians.

Geagea Nominates Aoun as President, Urges March 14 Alliance to Back him
Naharnet/January 18/16/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea announced on Monday his support for his rival Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun as president after weeks of speculation. He declared during a joint press conference with the MP at Maarab: “I declare, after thorough assessment among the LF, the nomination of MP Michel Aoun as president.”“The LF does not take impulsive or spontaneous decisions, but takes them after deep reflection,” he noted in an indirect reference to Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc chief MP Fouad Saniora. The MP had earlier on Monday urged officials against taking “rushed stances” on local affairs. “The state was on the verge of collapse so we sought an extraordinary solution, one which was not entertained by others,” Geagea added to applause among the audience. “The vacuum in the presidency has crippled state institutions and almost led to the country's collapse,” he noted. “From the start, we have long supported holding the presidential elections on time and in accordance with the constitution,” said Geagea. He hoped that Aoun's nomination would lead to normalcy being restored in Lebanon, remarking that the “positive progression” of ties between the LF and Change and Reform bloc led to the adoption of the MP's nomination. “We look forward to political cooperation and honorable competition with the Free Patriotic Movement,” he stated. Geagea reiterated the articles of the declaration of intent that was signed between the LF and FPM in 2015. He stressed the commitment to the National Pact, empowering the Lebanese army, and respecting international resolutions. “I call on my allies in the March 14 coalition to adopt Aoun's nomination, especially since the aforementioned points coincide with the camp's principles,” said Geagea. For his part, Aoun voiced his support for the principles that were listed by Geagea. “We will not forget what Geagea has presented for Lebanon,” he continued. “We should no longer remain attached to the past and we should look forward to building a future together,” he stressed. “The past should not be forgotten however,” said lawmaker. “We do not act out of spite with anyone and we have never acted out of spite,” he emphasized. “We back coexistence between Muslims and Christians and we have never discriminated against anyone. Everyone has his place in Lebanon,” Aoun remarked. “On this historic day, I believe we will be able to achieve what we have pledged,” he added. Prior to the conference, Geagea had held talks with Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil and MP Ibrahim Kanaan, both of the Change and Reform bloc. The two officials and Aoun had held talks earlier on Monday with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi. The patriarch had also held a separate meeting with Saniora. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps have thwarted the polls. Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri launched late in 2015 a proposal to nominate Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president. Geagea, Hariri's ally in the March 14 camp, was a presidential nominee at the time and observers have said that the LF leader's nomination of Aoun is a response to Mustaqbal Movement leader's proposal.

Franjieh Meets al-Rahi, Says His Presidential Nomination still Stands
Naharnet/January 18/16/Head of the Marada Movement held talks on Monday night with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi in wake of Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea’s nomination of Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun as president. Franjieh tweeted after the talks: “I am still going ahead with my candidacy for the presidency.” The MP’s nomination was part of a proposal launched in late 2015 by Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri. Geagea’s nomination of his rival Aoun for the country’s top post was seen as a reaction to Hariri’s nomination of the Marada leader.Geagea was the presidential candidate of the March 14 camp of which Hariri is also a member of. Tensions had risen between the two allies in wake of Franjieh's nomination.

Saniora Meets al-Rahi, Urges against Taking 'Rushed Stances' on Presidency
Naharnet/January 18/16/Head of the Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc MP Fouad Saniora stressed on Monday the need to elect a new head of state, saying that the presidency is not a strictly Christian affair. He said after holding talks at Bkirki with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi: “We urge against taking rushed stances over the elections.”He made his remarks in wake of media reports that said Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea is leaning towards the nomination of his rival Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun as president.
“The election of a head of state is a Lebanese issue, because the president represents all the people and he enjoys their consensus,” added Saniora. “The president should be a figure of unity, not division,” he stressed. “He should bolster coexistence among the Lebanese and the regional developments only highlight Lebanon's role as a country of coexistence,” he noted. “The longer it takes us to elect a president, the greater the repercussions of regional developments will be on us,” warned the lawmaker. He added however that more internal consultations are needed to ensure the success of the presidential polls. LF officials have been lately hinting that Geagea will endorse the candidacy of Aoun against the candidacy of Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh. Franjieh's bid for the country's top Christian post is backed by al-Mustaqbal movement that is led by ex-PM Saad Hariri.

Berri Seeks to Resolve Military Council Appointments Crisis
Naharnet/January 18/16/Speaker Nabih Berri is expected to hold a meeting with Defense Minister Samir Moqbel this week in a bid to remove the hurdles which have stood in the way of the appointment of top military officials. According to newspapers published on Monday, Berri told his visitors that he has received the names of two candidates for the military council – a Catholic and an Orthodox. He said that he did not mind for Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun to name the Shiite officer. The Free Patriotic Movement, whose founder is Aoun, and Hizbullah boycotted a government session last Thursday over the failure to put the appointment of the three members in the military council on the cabinet's agenda. The FPM is calling for the appointment of senior military and security officers, especially to fill the vacancies in the military council, as a condition for attending cabinet sessions. The FPM is also demanding a change in the cabinet's decision-making mechanism in the absence of a president. Berri told his visitors that he will discuss the issue of the appointments with Moqbel, who is entitled to propose the bill to the cabinet, and the Kataeb Party, which has rejected to politicize the appointments at the six-member military council. Kataeb Minister Michel Qazzi told An Nahar daily that it is up to the army command to propose the candidates who would fill the vacant posts at the council. “We reject any political meddling” in the issue, he said. Such interference “harms the military institution and the officers whose names have been proposed” for the vacant posts, Qazzi added.

Kataeb Rejects 'Politicization' of Military Appointments
Naharnet/January 18/16/The Kataeb Party criticized on Monday the stalling in the appointments of members of the military council. It said in a statement after its weekly politburo meeting: “We reject the politicization of the appointments.” “Such actions are an insult to the military institution and subject it to political meddling,” it noted. “This will consequently suppress the role of the army and its power,” remarked the party. The dispute over the military appointments has been crippling the functioning of cabinet. The most recent incident in the dispute saw the Free Patriotic Movement and Hizbullah boycott a government meeting last week. The FPM is calling for the appointment of senior military and security officers, especially to fill the vacancies in the military council, as a condition for attending cabinet sessions. Addressing the release from prison of former Minister Michel Samaha, the Kataeb said: “The development was a resounding shock and major scandal that will be recorded in the history of the military judiciary.” “The party therefore calls for reviewing extraordinary trials in general and the Military Tribunal in particular ahead of their elimination,” it said. It revealed that it will make a proposal to cabinet on referring Samaha's case to the judiciary that is concerned with terrorist crimes. Samaha was released from jail on Thursday after being arrested in 2012 after he was caught red-handed smuggling explosives from Syria for the purpose of carrying out bombings and assassinations in Lebanon. He was sentenced to four-and-a-half years in jail. The release sparked a wave of anger in Lebanon against the military court, most notably among the March 14 alliance. Samaha, who was information minister from 1992 to 1995, was released in exchange for a bail payment of 150 million Lebanese pounds ($100,000), according the text of the Military Court's judgment. Under his bail conditions, Samaha, 67, would be barred from leaving the country for at least one year, speaking to the press or using social media. Samaha, a former adviser to Syrian President Bashar Assad, admitted during his trial that he had transported the explosives from Syria for use in attacks in Lebanon.But he argued he should be acquitted because he was a victim of entrapment by a Lebanese security services informer – Milad Kfoury.

Rifi Submits Request to Cabinet to Refer Samaha to Judicial Council
Naharnet/January 18/16/Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi submitted to the cabinet on Monday a draft project on the release from jail of former Minister Michel Samaha. The draft calls for the referral of the former minister to the judicial council. Samaha was released from jail on Thursday after being arrested in 2012 after he was caught red-handed smuggling explosives from Syria for the purpose of carrying out bombings and assassinations in Lebanon. He was sentenced to four-and-a-half years in jail. The release sparked a wave of anger in Lebanon against the military court, most notably among the March 14 alliance. Rifi vowed last week that he will perform “his duties” regarding the release of Samaha. Samaha, who was information minister from 1992 to 1995, was released in exchange for a bail payment of 150 million Lebanese pounds ($100,000), according the text of the Military Court's judgment. Under his bail conditions, Samaha, 67, would be barred from leaving the country for at least one year, speaking to the press or using social media. Samaha, a former adviser to Syrian President Bashar Assad, admitted during his trial that he had transported the explosives from Syria for use in attacks in Lebanon. But he argued he should be acquitted because he was a victim of entrapment by a Lebanese security services informer – Milad Kfoury.

Report: Second Saudi Grant Lamed for Unknown Reasons
Naharnet/January 18/16/The Saudi grant that was approved in 2013 in the wake of the Arsal clashes seems to be frozen after reports said that Riyadh has halted the transfer of funds, As Safir daily reported on Monday. The fate of the second Saudi grant, worth $1bn, that the kingdom tasked al-Mustaqbal movement chief Saad Hariri with supervising following the Arsal battles is now unknown after Riyadh's abstention from transferring the funds. Following the 2013 clashes between Lebanon's troops and jihadists in the northeastern border region of Arsal, Saudi Arabia provided Lebanon's army with one billion dollars to strengthen its security. Hariri had disclosed in a press conference then that the late King Abdullah had tasked him “with supervising how this grant will be handled.” Well informed sources told As Safir that tasking Hariri was only a formal step and that the actual party controlling the process is the Saudi Royal Court. The sources confirmed that the bulk of this grant has not been put into implementation for reasons that remain unknown by the Lebanese side. They noted that only part of it was disbursed and the other amount is frozen upon a Saudi decision which obstructed many plans and contracts that had been planned by the ministry of interior and the military institutions to develop their capabilities.

New Samaha video leaked to press
http://youtu.be/ddBcr61hY2E
Now Lebanon/January b18/16/The former minister revealed in his interrogation that he coordinated with Syrian security chief Ali Mamlouk.
Michel Samaha speaks to interrogators. (YouTube/MTV)
BEIRUT – A new video of Michel Samaha’s interrogation following his 2012 arrest has been leaked to the media, in which the former minister who was found guilty of plotting terror attacks reveals how he coordinated with a top Syrian regime figure. Lebanese TV stations, including Al-Jadeed, Future News and MTV, on Sunday evening broadcast the short excerpt of Samaha’s August 9, 2012 interrogation session with Internal Security Forces investigators. In the video, Samaha—who was smoking a cigarette throughout the questioning—revealed that he had met in the Syrian capital with Ali Mamlouk, the Assad regime’s National Security Bureau chief. “I went to see General Ali in his office,” the disgraced Lebanese politician said, adding that they discussed his efforts to procure explosives from Adnan, a Syrian army colonel whose last name remains unknown. Samaha confessed in the video that after meeting Mamlouk, the following day Adnan “took the car and brought the goods,” an implicit reference to the explosives he then proceeded to transport across the border in Lebanon.
The taped confession was made the same day that Samaha was arrested in 2012 during a pre-dawn security forces raid on his residence. Samaha was formally indicted in February 2013 alongside Mamlouk on charges of “transporting explosives from Syria to Lebanon to assassinate political and religious leaders.”Despite the grave charges, the former tourism and information minister was handed a light four-and-a-half year prison sentence in May 2015, which with time served meant he was set for release in December. In June, Lebanon’s Military Court of Cassation accepted an appeal to hold a re-trial of Samaha in-lieu of his short sentence. The re-trial has been beset by a number of delays, only kicking off on December 17. Samaha was released from prison on January 14, sparking condemnation from anti-Assad Lebanese politicians as well as Sunni Muslims, who were set to be targeted by Samaha’s planned terror attacks.
Previous leaked videos
As the political furor grew over Samaha’s original sentence, a number of Lebanese TV stations aired excerpts from videos showing him caught plotting terror attacks in a sting operation. Samaha can be seen in the videos speaking with Milad Kfoury, an informant for Lebanon’s Internal Security Forces who the former minister entrusted with explosives and money in return for targeting political and religious figures in northern Lebanon. In one of the videos—which was filmed surreptitiously by the informant—Samaha hands Kfoury a bag filled with $170,000 and asks, “Should I count them?” The former minister also tells Kfoury that he has two explosive devices weighing 20 kilograms each, and adds that detonators have been prepared as well. Samaha can also be heard reassuring Kfoury that only Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his political security chief know about the plot and that the informant will be “100% protected.”In another video, the Lebanese figure states explicitly that the terror plot can target Akkar MP Khaled Daher, his brother, Free Syrian Army officials, and “a gathering of Syrian gunmen at a certain place.”Samaha also expressed his indifference regarding civilian casualties, telling Kfoury in the previous video excerpt that “collateral damage is allowed.”
Yet another video shows Samaha handing over explosives to Kfoury in the former’s residence in Beirut’s Ashrafieh quarter.

Samaha Tells Interrogators about 'Explosives Trip' in Newly Leaked Video
Naharnet/January 18/16/Lebanese TV networks on Sunday aired a video showing ex-minister Michel Samaha giving his testimony to interrogators in the wake of his 2012 arrest over a plot to stage bombings and assassinations in Lebanon in collaboration with a senior Syrian security official. The video comes three days after Samaha was released from jail on bail under a controversial Military Court ruling. “I went Monday to Damascus and I met with Adnan and he told me that they (the explosives) would be ready the next day,” Samaha tells the interrogators in the video. He then reveals that he went back to the Syrian capital a few days later, accompanied by his personal driver Fares Barakat who drove another car. Syrian security agent Adnan then took the car and filled it with the explosives and other bomb-making material, Samaha told the interrogators. Several videos had emerged in the past, showing Samaha discussing the attacks plot with Milad Kfoury, who has been described as a Lebanese security services informer. Samaha, who was information minister from 1992 to 1995, was released in exchange for a bail payment of 150 million Lebanese pounds. Under his bail conditions, he was barred from leaving the country for at least one year, speaking to the press or using social media. The ex-minister was arrested in August 2012 and charged with attempting to carry out "terrorist acts" over allegations that he and Syrian security services chief Ali Mamluk transported explosives and planned attacks and assassinations of political and religious figures in Lebanon. Samaha was sentenced in May 2015 to four-and-half years in prison, but in June Lebanon's Cassation Court nullified the verdict and ordered a retrial. Samaha, a Christian politician and former adviser to Syrian President Bashar Assad, admitted during his trial that he had transported the explosives from Syria for use in attacks in Lebanon. But he argued he should be acquitted because he was a victim of entrapment by Kfoury. The ex-minister's controversial release on Thursday has sparked road-blocking protests across Lebanon and dismay among the ranks of the March 14 coalition. Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri deemed the release a “shame and scandal,” vowing that he will not remain silent over the issue.

Declaring Iranian tutelage over Lebanon
Khairallah Khairallah/Al Arabiya/January 18/16
Lebanese ex-minister Michel Samaha, who was jailed over charges of transferring explosives from Syria to Lebanon for the purpose of carrying out assassinations and attacks, was released from prison directly after Future Movement leader Saad Hariri sought to reach a settlement regarding the presidency. His release shows that Lebanon is no longer a country whose people can agree on anything, including electing a president. The settlement that Hariri sought has surprised many, including his allies, as it stipulated bringing MP Suleiman Franjieh - a major figure in the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition - to the presidency. Franjieh considers himself a friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is at the very least an accomplice in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and other honorable Lebanese figures. The Military Court of Cassation released a criminal who was convicted via solid video evidence and his own confessions, and who aimed to commit murders for the purpose of sectarian incitement and harming civil peace in certain Lebanese Sunni-populated areas. Samaha’s confessions, and the video that showed him delivering explosives and money to the person who was supposed to carry out the assassinations and attacks, clearly reveal that Assad and Ali Mamlik, the Syrian security services chief with whom Samaha was dealing either directly or indirectly via his office, were involved in the terrorist scheme.
Tehran did not invest in Hezbollah for 30 years so Lebanon could make its own decisions.Samaha’s release confirms that Lebanon is now under the control of Hezbollah and Iran. There is no longer a Lebanese authority independent from Hezbollah. Its parliamentary bloc leader Mohammad Raad said Saad Hariri’s presence “is not desired” in Lebanon. This statement went unnoticed despite its grave threat. It is even forbidden for Hariri to go as far as accepting Franjieh as president. What is required is to keep the presidential post vacant until Hezbollah decides when to bring someone to occupy it - that is if it really wants the country to have a president one day. Lebanon is now a mere card that Tehran can play whenever it wants. The latter did not invest in Hezbollah for 30 years so Lebanon could make its own decisions. By releasing Samaha, there is a completely new political phase in Lebanon. Major political powers that agreed on Franjieh as president failed to protect their choice. These powers include the Future Movement, parliament speaker Nabih Berri and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. Hezbollah rejects an agreement that can provide a quorum in parliament and thus facilitate electing a president.
Series of developments
Assassinating Rafiq Hariri was a major episode in the war on Lebanon. The war continued via a wave of assassinations that aimed to subjugate the Lebanese people. There was the contrived war with Israel in the summer of 2006, and the sit-in that Hezbollah later held in downtown Beirut for the purpose of obstructing the country’s economy. There was the May 2008 events that witnessed battles in Beirut and the mountains. Wissam al-Hassan, head of the Information Branch at the Internal Security Forces, was assassinated two months after Samaha was arrested. Releasing him is the latest in this series of events, which include Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil argued to have become a mere Hezbollah employee. He was Iran’s voice in the last meeting of Arab foreign ministers in Egypt. Is Lebanon still an Arab country that can freely stand with Saudi Arabia or any other Gulf country, which stood by it in difficult circumstances? Samaha is merely a useful tool to be used to achieve certain aims. Releasing him represents an invitation to Lebanese Sunnis to join the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Are the Syrian regime and Iran not the major sponsors of this organization, which facilitates Tehran’s expansionist project that is based on sectarian incitement in all regional countries?

Self-Exclusion in the Wrong Place
By Ahmad El-Assaad/January 18/16
The official Lebanese position, during the last meeting of the Council of the League of Arab States, has proven that Lebanon is now completely at the mercy of the Iranian regime and its agent in Lebanon, i.e. Hezbollah.
The ambiguous and non-decisive Lebanese position in the Arab Foreign Ministers meeting has unmasked its dependence to the Iranian agenda, under the pretext of preserving internal national unity, in other words: keeping Hezbollah in consideration. By refraining to vote on the Arab decision, Lebanon was the only one to go against the Arab consensus by not clearly and openly joining the consensus against the Iranian regime’s greed, gall, and increasingly destructive role in the Arab world.
In reality, no matter the considerations and excuses, Lebanon cannot take such a position, a cold position to say the least, while the Arab world is infuriated with a regime that no longer hides its expansionist, aggressive intentions. Lebanon cannot stand aside in the comprehensive Arab confrontation with a regime that’s trying to pit the Arab nations against their nature.
Lebanon cannot stay on the margin in tackling a regime that has, publically and shamelessly, declared that around 200 thousand members affiliated to the Revolutionary Guards are fighting in five states, among which at least three are Arab.
It is true that Lebanon is adopting a self-exclusion policy, but self-exclusion cannot be from Arab conflicts, internal matters of some Arab States, and it cannot be a self-exclusion from Arab matters.
The confrontation with the Iranian regime is an Arab matter par excellence, as proved by the fact that it received an overwhelming Arab consensus. As for the unity that Lebanon took as an excuse in the Arab meeting, we wish Hezbollah would respect it a little, by ceasing to push Lebanon into the region’s conflicts, from Syria to Yemen.
*LOP General Chancellor.

Indian FM in Jerusalem: Ties with Israel of ‘highest importance’ to India
Jerusalem Post/January 18/16
India attaches “the highest importance” to the full development of ties with Israel, Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj said Monday, adding that there was room for more growth in the rapidly developing bilateral relations. Swaraj, on the second day of a three day visit to Israel and the Palestinian Authority, said at a press opportunity before meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that “our bilateral cooperation has developed well in a number of areas over the past two decades, but the potential of our relations is much more.” Sarwaj, who visited Israel once before she became foreign minister in 2014, is only the third Indian foreign minister to visit the country, and the first since 2012. Her visit is seen as an indication of the flowering of ties between the two countries, and as a precursor to an expected visit by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This would be the first-ever visit by an Indian prime minister to Israel. Swaraj also met with President Reuven Rivlin, Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, National Infrastructure, Energy and Water Minister Yuval Steinitz, and deputy foreign minister Tzipi Hotovely. Netanyahu welcomed Swaraj to his office, saying “the Middle East's only democracy welcomes the foreign minister of the world's greatest democracy.” Netanyahu said that the two countries were “intensifying our contacts and our cooperation in so many fields -- in the fields of science and technology and cyber and defense and agriculture and health – everything.”And, he said, “we want to do more.”In addition to discussing bilateral issues, the two also discussed regional issues and the diplomatic process with the Palestinians. During the meeting, Netanyahu showed her a two-minute video on Palestinian incitement – featuring statements by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and anti-Israel rants on PA television and in schools – that he said explained Sunday's killing of Dafna Meir and Monday's stabbing of Michael Froman. Later in the day Netanyahu showed the video to another visitor, Rwandan Foreign Minister Louise Mushikiwabo. Mushikiwabo, who visited Israel in 2014 during Operation Protective Edge, also met Hotovely, who thanked her for her country's support for Israel in international forums. According to one diplomatic official, Rwanda is currently Israel's closest friend in Africa. In a related development, Foreign Ministry director-general Dore Gold met Monday with new Egyptian ambassador Hazem Khairat.
According to a Foreign Ministry statement, Gold said that the return of the ambassador to Tel Aviv was an “important step” in the ties between the two countries. Gold said that Israel viewed Egypt as an “important country” and stressed the importance of the diplomatic ties between the two states. “The two discussed the regional challenges and the possibilities of cooperation between the two countries,” the statement said. Khairat arrived in Israel last month, the first Egyptian ambassador to take up residency here since Egypt recalled its ambassador in 2012 during Operation Pillar of Defense. His return is viewed as an indication of close cooperation existing now between Cairo and Jerusalem. **Greer Fay Cashman contributed to this reported.

Russian robots on the ground for four-army assault to retake Aleppo
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 18, 2016
Argo Mobility Platform combat robot
Russian, Syrian, Iranian and Hizballah troops were taking up positions Monday, Jan. 18, for a massive offensive to retake Aleppo, Syria’s second city. The rebel militias occupying different parts of the city have repulsed all previous assaults. A victory in Aleppo (prewar population: 1 million) is expected in Moscow, Tehran and Damascus to reverse the tide of the war and force the Syrian rebels to accept that their insurgency is at an end and their only remaining option is to join the peace process initiated by Russia on Syria’s future. Russian military intervention since late August has lifted the Syrian army out of its hopeless state and imbued its officers with fresh vigor and the troops with high morale. Bashad Assad’s army is not the same largely defeated one of five months ago. Russian air strikes have restored its commander’s confidence in their ability to win. Cutting-edge weapons are reaching combat units with Russian military advisers on hand to teach the Syrian army how to use them, along with exposure to advanced methods of warfare that have been developed by a world-class military. debkafile’s military sources add that the operational standards of Hizballah and the pro-Iranian Shiite militias fighting alongside the Syrian army have likewise been enhanced by their exposure to Russian tactics. Those tactics have produced a substantial drop in Hizballah, Iranian and Syrian casualties in battle, contrary to reports of high casualties claimed in the Western mainstream press, Robots, novel replacements for boots on the ground, recently made their debut appearance in the Syrian arena, our military sources have revealed. They are cast in a star role in the offensive for the recovery of Aleppo. Heralding a revolution in modern warfare, the Russians are fielding two kinds of robots – the Platform-M combat robot and the Argo Mobility Platform, both heavily armored and capable of functioning day or night in a variety of battlefield conditions. Platform-M gathers intelligence, uncovers fixed and moving targets and destroys them. It also provides firepower support for forces on the move and secures military installations or routes traveled by the army. Platform-M is armed with semiautomatic or automatic control firing systems.for destroying enemy targets But extra fire power can be mounted on the system as required. The Argo is designed for rough-country operations, especially on mountainous or rocky terrain. In recent battles, Syrian rebels were startled to find themselves under sudden heavy fire from the unmanned Russian robots. Russian General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov recently spoke of a plan to “completely automate the battle in Syria.” He added, “Perhaps soon we will witness robotic groups independently conducting warfare.” Our military sources comment that this vision is overly futuristic. No totally robotic battlefield exists anywhere in the world today outside sci-fi cinema.

Iran angered by new U.S. sanctions on missiles
Agencies, Tehran Monday, 18 January 2016/Iran on Monday denounced "illegitimate" new sanctions by the United States on its ballistic missile program, days after Tehran's historic nuclear deal with world powers was confirmed.
"Iran's missile program has never been designed to be capable of carrying nuclear weapons," foreign ministry spokesman Hossein Jaber Ansari said, according to the ISNA news agency. He added that Tehran saw fresh economic sanctions as "illegitimate". "The U.S. sanctions against Iran's ballistic missile program ... have no legal or moral legitimacy," Ansari said in a televised news conference."America sells tens of billions of dollars of weaponry each year to countries in the region. These weapons are used in war crimes against Palestinian, Lebanese and most recently Yemeni citizens," he said. The United States announced new penalties Sunday related to Iran's ballistic missile program after the lifting of punishing measures aimed at its atomic activities as the deal with world powers was confirmed in Vienna. "As previously announced, the Islamic republic of Iran... responds with determination to such propaganda by accelerating its legal ballistic missile program and boosting defense capabilities," Ansari said.

Escalation Feared after Israeli Settlements Stabbings
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 18/16/Two knife attacks inside Israeli settlements in the West Bank, including the fatal stabbing of a woman in her home, boosted tensions Monday after months of violence and raised fears of an escalation. As a manhunt was under way for the assailant in Sunday's fatal stabbing, another knife attack Monday on a street in another West Bank settlement wounded a 30-year-old pregnant woman. The 17-year-old Palestinian assailant was shot by security personnel and taken to hospital in severe condition after the attack in Tekoa, south of Jerusalem. While the attacks were part of a months-long wave of violence, the stabbings have usually occurred in public areas such as checkpoints, at junctions and entrances to Jerusalem's Old City rather than inside Jewish settlements. The new attacks triggered fears that the unrest was worsening and Israel would impose a harsh security crackdown on Palestinians. Palestinians who work in settlements in the south of the occupied West Bank were not allowed in on Monday, the army said, in an order that affected several thousand laborers. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled further security measures, pledging to "strengthen the communities" in response to the deadly stabbing in the Otniel settlement near the flashpoint city of Hebron in the southern West Bank. "Whoever tries to harm us, we will bring him to justice," Netanyahu said. "In the end he will be found and he will pay the full price." The woman killed was identified as Dafna Meir, a 38-year-old nurse and mother of six. At least some of her children, aged four to 17, were home at the time, but were not hurt. The attacker remained at large on Monday. Michal Froman, who was stabbed on Monday, was five months pregnant and her injuries were not considered life-threatening. She is the daughter-in-law of the late Rabbi Menahem Froman, a Jewish settler and peace activist who was one of the few Israelis to have talked with Hamas, the Islamist group which calls for Israel's destruction. Meir's funeral in Jerusalem on Monday was attended by hundreds of mourners, including Israeli politicians and Jewish settlers carrying rifles.Her husband sat in the front row sobbing with two of their children in his lap. "One hour before everything happened, we were still discussing what nail polish I should wear," their 17-year-old daughter Renana said at the funeral. "Now you won't escort me to my wedding."Located near Otniel, the Palestinian village of Karma was sealed off Monday as the army guarded entrances. “Yesterday ... the village was raided and they arrested all the young men, and people were detained until 3:00 in the morning,” Talab Mahmud Abu Sheikha, head of the local village council, told AFP. Meir's death brought the toll in the spate of violence to 24 Israelis and 155 Palestinians killed since October 1.
Many of the Palestinians killed have been attackers, while others have been shot dead by Israeli forces during protests and clashes. Israel's government had already come under heavy pressure over the spate of attacks and Sunday's killing provoked fresh outrage. Many of the Palestinian attackers have been young people, including teenagers. A number of them have attempted attacks with kitchen knives in what some analysts have described as virtual suicide missions. U.S. ambassador Dan Shapiro on Monday condemned the stabbings as "barbaric acts of terrorism," but also questioned Israel's policies concerning settlements in the West Bank. Some 400,000 Israeli settlers live in the territory in near-constant tension with 2.5 million Palestinians. The settlements are seen as major stumbling blocks toward peace efforts since they are built on land the Palestinians see as part of their future state.
"We are concerned and perplexed by Israel’s strategy on settlements," Shapiro told a security conference in Tel Aviv. "This government and previous Israeli governments have repeatedly expressed support for a negotiated settlement that would involve mutual recognition and separation. "Yet separation will become more and more difficult" if Israel continues to expand settlements, he said. Some analysts say the attacks have been in part driven by frustration with the complete lack of progress in peace efforts, Israel's occupation of the West Bank and the fractured Palestinian leadership. Israel says incitement by Palestinian leaders and news media has been a main cause of the violence.

Iran Denounces New U.S. Sanctions on Missile Program
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 18/16/Iran denounced new U.S. sanctions on its missile program on Monday but pushed ahead with international cooperation after its historic nuclear deal. Washington announced the new sanctions on Sunday, the day after the U.N. atomic watchdog confirmed that Iran had complied with the measures imposed by the deal with global powers reached in Vienna in July. World leaders hailed the implementation of the deal, and the subsequent lifting of European and U.S. sanctions, as a milestone in international diplomacy. But in a sign that tensions persist, the U.S. Treasury announced it was imposing sanctions on five Iranian nationals and a network of companies based in the United Arab Emirates and China in connection with Iran's ballistic missile program. Iran's foreign ministry on Monday decried the new measures as "illegitimate", with spokesman Hossein Jaber Ansari insisting the missile program has no links with the nuclear issue. "Iran's missile program has never been designed to be capable of carrying nuclear weapons," Ansari was quoted as saying by the ISNA news agency. He said Iran would respond by "accelerating its legal ballistic missile program and boosting defense capabilities". Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan said the new sanctions would have "no effect", telling the Fars news agency: "We will prove it in practice by unveiling new missile achievements."Cooperation on the nuclear program was moving forward however, with International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukiya Amano in Tehran for talks with senior officials on Iran's continued compliance with the deal. Amano met Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, and was to hold talks with President Hassan Rouhani to discuss monitoring and verifying Iran's commitments under the agreement. "We talked about future cooperation, especially in the new atmosphere, and we partially drew the roadmap" for continued efforts, state television quoted Salehi as saying after the talks. Rouhani on Sunday said the implementation of the nuclear deal -- negotiated with the United States, Britain, China, France, Russia and Germany -- had "opened a new chapter" in Iran's relations with the world. U.S. President Barack Obama praised the deal as a breakthrough in diplomacy, but noted that "profound differences" with Tehran remained over its "destabilizing activities".
Warming ties between the longtime foes were also in evidence in a weekend prisoner swap that saw Tehran release four Iranian-Americans, including Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian. Rezaian, Christian pastor Saeed Abedini and former U.S. Marine Amir Hekmati arrived at a U.S. military base in Germany late on Sunday on their way home from Iran. A fourth Iranian-American, Nosratollah Khosravi-Roodsari was also set free but chose not to leave Iran, local media reported. Under the exchange, Washington said it had granted clemency to seven Iranians, six of whom were dual US-Iranian citizens, and dropped charges against 14 others. Rouhani, a moderate whose 2013 election victory helped launch the huge diplomatic effort toward the deal, has promised that the lifting of sanctions will give a major boost to Iran's economy.
Iran will now be able to significantly increase its oil exports, long the lifeblood of its economy. Concerns that fresh Iranian exports will worsen a supply glut have helped push oil prices to 12-year lows, and they plunged below $28 a barrel early on Monday. The Vienna agreement was nailed down after two years of negotiations following Rouhani's election. It drew a line under a standoff dating back to 2002 marked by failed diplomatic initiatives, ever-tighter sanctions, defiant nuclear expansion by Iran and threats of military action. The steps taken so far by Tehran extend to at least a year -- from a few months previously -- how long Iran would need to make one nuclear bomb's worth of fissile material. They include slashing by two-thirds its uranium centrifuges, reducing its stockpile of uranium -- enough before the deal for several bombs -- and removing the core of its Arak reactor, which could have given Iran weapons-grade plutonium. Iran has always denied wanting nuclear weapons, saying its activities are exclusively for peaceful.

Russia hopes to sell military helicopters to Iran now sanctions lifted
Reuters, Moscow Monday, 18 January 2016/Russian Helicopters hopes to deliver military helicopters to Iran now that sanctions have been lifted on the Islamic Republic, TASS news agency reported on Monday, citing the Russian firm. “The lifting of sanctions gives an opportunity to provide the Iranian side new helicopters,” TASS cited the company as saying.

German defense minister raises prospect of Libya mission
Reuters, Berlin Monday, 18 January 2016/Advances by Islamist militants in Libya pose a new threat to Europe and could unleash a new wave of refugees, Germany’s defence minister said on Monday, adding she did not rule out deploying German troops in the north African country. “Germany will not be able to evade responsibility for contributing its share,” Ursula von der Leyen told Bild newspaper when asked about whether she plans to deploy troops in Libya, which has been racked by conflict since the 2011 fall of Muammar Qaddafi. She didn’t give further details on the nature of involvement but said that implementing law and order was the most important goal in Libya, which has seen advances by the extremist group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Germany, which took in 1.1 million refugees last year, is keen to promote stability in Europe’s neighbors in order to reduce the number of people streaming across the Mediterranean. Deploying troops in foreign conflicts is still controversial in Germany, which since the end of World War Two has tried to steer clear of direct foreign military involvement. But over the last two decades it has departed from its strictly pacifist course. Since its first foreign combat mission as part of NATO’s joint intervention in Kosovo in 1999, the army has been involved in fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan and last November joined the military campaign against Islamic State in Syria.

Palestinian attacker stabs Israeli woman in West Bank
The Associated Press, Jerusalem Monday, 18 January 2016/A Palestinian attacker stabbed and wounded a pregnant Israeli woman in the West Bank on Monday before being shot, Israeli officials said. The attacker entered the Tekoa settlement and stabbed the 30-year-old woman, the Israeli military said, before being shot by the settlement's head of security. Shoham Ruvio, a spokeswoman for Jerusalem's Shaarei Tzedek hospital, said the woman was five-months pregnant. She said the woman was moderately wounded after being stabbed in the upper body. Ruvio said there was no damage caused to the fetus.
Eli Bin, the head of Israel's rescue service MDA, had earlier told Israeli Channel 10 TV that the woman was seriously wounded.The attacker's condition was not immediately known. Monday's attack was the latest in a four month-long wave of violence that shows no sign of abating. Palestinian attacks have killed 25 Israelis and an American student. At least 146 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire, of whom 101 are said by Israel to have been attackers. The rest have been killed in clashes with Israeli troops. Israel says the violence is the result of a Palestinian campaign of lies and incitement. The Palestinians say it is rooted in frustrations over Israel's nearly 50-year occupation.

Turkey probes opposition chief for calling Erdogan ‘tinpot dictator’
AFP, Istanbul Monday, 18 January 2016/Turkish prosecutors on Monday launched an investigation into the head of Turkey’s main opposition party after he called President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a “tinpot dictator”. Kemal Kilicdaroglu was speaking out against the detention of Turkish academics last week over a petition condemning the military crackdown in the Kurdish-dominated southeast, just days after Erdogan threatened the signatories. “Academics who express their opinion are being detained, one by one, because of a tinpot dictator,” Kilicdaroglu told a congress of his Republican People’s Party (CHP) at the weekend. “How dare you (Erdogan) send police to these peoples’ doors and have them detained.” “Tell us, tinpot dictator, what do honour and pride mean to you? Either you maintain your impartiality and get respect or I will remind you every day what honour and pride mean.”
The chief prosecutor’s office in Ankara launched the probe against Kilicdaroglu on charges of “openly insulting the president,” the official Anatolia news agency reported. The crime is punishable by up to four years in prison. Erdogan has separately filed a civil lawsuit against Kilicdaroglu, seeking 100,000 Turkish Liras ($33,300) in compensation for “slander” from the CHP leader, the private NTV channel said. Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag on Monday slammed Kilicdaroglu over the dictator jibe, writing on Twitter: “I pity Mr. Kilicdaroglu for not being able to criticize our dear president without insulting him.”
“Only those who lack intelligence, knowledge, and morality can insult others like that under the disguise of freedom of expression.”Erdogan had in June last year filed a lawsuit against Kilicdaroglu for “slander” for claiming the president’s vast palace in Ankara had gold-plated toilet seats. Concerns have mounted in recent months over freedom of expression in Turkey, in particular over the spiraling numbers of Turks being taken to court on charges of insulting Erdogan, accused by his opponents of increasing authoritarianism. Prosecutors on Thursday began a vast investigation into over 1,200 academics for engaging in “terrorist propaganda” by signing a petition urging Ankara to halt “its deliberate massacres” in the Kurdish-majority region. On Friday Turkish police detained at least 18 of them, sparking fresh international concern at restrictions on freedom of expression in Turkey. Turkey is waging an all-out offensive against the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), with military operations backed by curfews aimed at flushing out rebels from several southeastern urban centres.
Human rights activists say dozens of civilians have died as a result of excessive force.

Security patrol shooting suspect arrested in Saudi
Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Monday, 18 January 2016/A suspect believed to be involved in a shooting of a security patrol in the eastern Qatif governorate in Saudi Arabia has been arrested, the interior ministry said Monday in a statement on Monday. The ministry did not disclose his identity but said he was also suspected to have set fire to a government buildings using Molotov cocktails. The minister vowed that the security authorities would not stop rounding up militants and outlaws. The news come after Saudi authorities arrested a man over a number of attacks on police.

One killed by shelling in Turkey near Syrian border
AFP, Istanbul Monday, 18 January 2016/At least one person was killed and three others wounded Monday when two mortar shells, likely fired from Syria, landed near a school in the Turkish town of Kilis on the border, officials said.
The mayor of Kilis, Hasan Kara, was quoted as saying by Turkey’s NTV television that all schools in the town had been evacuated and the shelling had most likely come from Syria. One of those wounded was in a serious condition, he added. Television pictures showed the wounded being taken to hospital by ambulance. Windows on the ground floor of the school had been smashed by the impact of the blast while one car was severely damaged. Reports said that the person killed was a school cleaner. The shells reportedly landed in the garden outside the school. “It seems that the shelling came from the south,” said Kara. “The people should not allow provocations. Kilis residents should stay calm.”Kilis, a town of just under 100,000, lies just north of the Syrian border, some 10 kilometers from the Syrian town of Azaz. Turkish officials have said it is the only town in Turkey with a majority of Syrians, some of the estimated 2.2 million living in Turkey who have fled the civil war at home. That area of northern Syria south of Kilis has in the last months been the scene of fierce clashes involving Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) who have seized swathes of northern Syria. Turkey has said that it is working to push ISIS out of the border zone, which the extremist group controlled on the Syrian side for much of 2015. A suicide bomber who the Turkish authorities say was a member of ISIS last week killed 10 German tourists in the center of Istanbul, the first time that foreigners have been targeted by such an attack in Turkey. Turkish ground forces then pounded some 500 positions of ISIS in Syria and Iraq with artillery and tank fire over a 48-hour period, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said. Turkey has often been criticized by its Western allies for not doing enough to combat ISIS militants. But Ankara last year stepped up its involvement in the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS, hosting American war planes at its Incirlik air base for deadly raids against the jihadists and conducting air strikes of its own.
Turkish media reports have said Turkish jets are no longer flying over Syria after the shooting down of a Russian war plane on November 24 by one of Turkey’s jets led to an unprecedented crisis in relations between Moscow and Ankara.
Turkey has also repeatedly said it does not want Kurdish militia forces -- who are themselves bitterly opposed to ISIS -- from advancing westwards of the Euphrates River in northern Syria. Davutoglu said last week that Turkey would carry on fighting ISIS “until it leaves the Turkish border area completely.”

Kurdish militant attack kills 3 Turkish policemen
The Associated Press, Istanbul Monday, 18 January 2016/Turkey’s state-run news agency says Kurdish militants have killed three policemen and wounded four others in an attack in the southeastern province of Sirnak. The Anadolu Agency says the three officers succumbed to their wounds Monday after being hit by a roadside bomb in Sirnak’s Idil district, near the Syrian and Iraqi borders. Fighting between Turkey’s security forces and the rebels of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, resumed in July, shattering a fragile peace process. Turkey has launched numerous airstrikes against PKK positions in northern Iraq and imposed extended curfews in flashpoint neighborhoods and towns in its mainly Kurdish southeast. The conflict between government forces and the PKK, considered a terrorist organization by Turkey and its Western allies, has killed tens of thousands of people since 1984.

Iraqi forces search for 3 kidnapped Americans
AFP, Baghdad Monday, 18 January 2016/U.S. and local Iraqi authorities are searching for three American citizens who were reportedly kidnapped in Baghdad, officials from the two countries said on Sunday. The Associated Press reported that Iraqi security forces fanned out across the Baghdad neighborhood on Monday morning, closing streets and conducting house-to-house searches. An Iraqi government intelligence official said that the Americans were kidnapped from their interpreter’s home in the southern Baghdad neighborhood of Dora. The kidnapping occurred, the official said, after the Americans were invited into the home of their interpreter. The individuals were then taken to Sadr city, the official said, “after (the kidnapping) all communications and contact stopped in Sadr city.”The three Americans were kidnapped from a “suspicious apartment” in Baghdad, a spokesman for the security command responsible for the capital said on Monday. “Three people carrying American nationality were kidnapped while they were in Dura... inside a suspicious apartment,” the spokesman said in a statement. “Security forces have begun searching for them,” the spokesman said.A police colonel said on condition of anonymity that an Iraqi translator took the Americans for “drinking and women” at his apartment in the Dura area. Militiamen “attacked the place”, the colonel said, adding that “they were kidnapped from inside the apartment, not from the street.”There were no immediate claims of responsibility. Kidnappings in Iraq have been carried out by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group, Shiite militias and criminal gangs often demanding ransom payments or seeking to resolve workplace disputes. Kidnappings are a major problem in Baghdad and other parts of the country and most frequently target Iraqis, but Qatari and Turkish citizens have also been seized in recent months. “We are aware of reports that American citizens are missing in Iraq,” U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby said. “We are working with the full cooperation of the Iraqi authorities to locate and recover the individuals,” Kirby added, without providing details about their number or the circumstances of their disappearance. The officer said that according to information he had received, the kidnappers were militiamen wearing military uniforms. “We don’t know what their work is,” the colonel said of the kidnapped Americans. Iraq turned to paramilitary forces dominated by Iran-backed Shiite militias to help combat ISIS, which overran large parts of the country in 2014. These groups, which fall under an umbrella organization known as the Hashed al-Shaabi, or Popular Mobilization units, have played a key role in the fight against the extremists. But they have also been accused of abuses including summary executions, kidnappings and destruction of property. The U.S. is leading a coalition of countries that have bombed thousands of ISIS targets in Iraq and Syria and which are providing training to Baghdad’s forces.

Turkey charges 10 suspects over Istanbul attack
AFP, Istanbul Monday, 18 January 2016/A Turkish court on Sunday charged ten people over the suicide bombing in the heart of Istanbul’s tourist district that killed 10 Germans, Turkish media reported. The ten, who were charged with “belonging to a terrorist organization”, were remanded in custody, the Dogan news agency said. Six others who also appeared before the court in Istanbul were set to be released, Dogan added. Authorities have said the attack was the work of a Syrian bomber from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group.
Ten German tourists were killed and another 17 people wounded in the bombing in the historic center of Istanbul near the Blue Mosque and the Hagia Sophia, the towering former Byzantine church that is now a museum. Turkish authorities have identified the bomber as a 28-year-old Syrian who entered Turkey on Jan. 5 posing as a refugee, with Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu saying the man was an ISIS memeber.The suspects, whose nationalities were not disclosed, were also said to have links to ISIS. Ankara has often been criticized by its Western allies for not doing enough to combat ISIS extremists who have seized swathes of territory in neighboring Syria as well as Iraq.

British PM attacks isolation of Muslim women
AFP, London Monday, 18 January 2016/British Prime Minister David Cameron Monday said more needs to be done to help Muslim women learn English to tackle discrimination and gender segregation in their communities. Writing in The Times newspaper, Cameron said it was time to confront the "backward attitudes" held by a minority of Muslim men who were exerting "damaging control" over the women in their lives. Due to "'passive tolerance', people subscribe to the flawed idea of separate development", he said. The Conservative leader launched a £20 million ($28.5 million, 26 million euro) language fund for women in isolated communities as part of a drive to to build community integration. And he said migrants would be forced to improve their fluency English or risk their ability to stay in Britain.Cameron said new figures showed that some 190,000 Muslim women -- or 22 percent -- speak little or no English despite many having lived in Britain for decades.Some 40,000 of these women speak no English at all, he added. "So it's no surprise that 60 percent of women of a Pakistani or Bangladeshi heritage are economically inactive." Cameron linked the issue to extremism, saying separate development helped prompt the search for something to belong to among second-generation immigrants. He said Muslim women were reporting "an alarming picture of forced gender segregation, discrimination and social isolation from mainstream British life". "We must take on the minority of men who perpetuate these backward attitudes and exert such damaging control over their wives, sisters and daughters. And we must never again allow passive tolerance to prevent us from telling the hard truths." The prime minister said British society needed to be "more assertive about our liberal values, clearer about the expectations we place on those who come to live here and build our country together, and more creative and generous in the work we do to break down barriers". He said it was up to migrants to improve their English language skills if they wanted extend their stay in Britain or apply for citizenship. "We will now say: if you don't improve your fluency, that could affect your ability to stay in the UK. This will help make it clear to those men who stop their partners from integrating that there are consequences."

Saudi king meets Mexican president, signs pacts
Saudi Gazette, Riyadh Monday, 18 January 2016/Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz met with Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto in Riyadh on Sunday where both counties signed cooperation pacts. Saudi Arabia and Mexico signed nine agreements, memoranda of understanding and technical cooperation programs during the meeting. A memorandum of understanding for cooperation in the field of tourism was co-signed by Saudi Prince Sultan bin Salman, President of Saudi Commission for Tourism and National Heritage, and Mexican Secretary of Foreign Relations Claudia Ruiz Massieu. A security cooperation agreement to fight transnational organized crime in the two countries was co-signed by Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, Second Deputy Premier and Minister of Defense, and Mexican Secretary of Foreign Relations Claudia Ruiz Massieu. A memorandum of understanding in the energy sector between the two countries was co-signed by Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali al-Naimi and Mexican Secretary of Energy Pedro Joaquin Coldwell. An agreement to avoid double taxation and prevent tax evasion was co-signed by Minister of Finance Ibrahim al-Assaf and Mexican Secretary of Foreign Relations Claudia Ruiz Massieu. A memorandum of understanding between the Saudi Fund for Development and the Mexican National Bank for Foreign Trade was co-signed by Minister of Finance Ibrahim al-Assaf and Director General of the External Commercial Bank Alejandro Diaz. A technical cooperation program in the field of specifications, standards, quality was co-signed by Minister of Commerce and Industry Tawfiq al-Rabiah and Mexican Secretary of Economy Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal. General agreements in economic, trade, investment, educational, scientific, technical, youth and sports fields were co-signed by Minister of Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir and Mexican Secretary of Foreign Relations Claudia Ruiz Massieu. A memorandum of cooperation in the field of higher education and scientific research was co-signed by Minister of Education Dr. Ahmed al-Issa and Mexican Secretary of Public Education Aurelio Nuno. Air Services Agreement between the two countries was co-signed President of the General Authority of Civil Aviation Sulaiman al-Hamdan and Mexican Secretary of Communications and Transport Gerardo Ruiz.

A Gruesome Christmas under Islam
Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone Institute/January 18/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7250/christmas-islam
Muslim governmental officials -- not "ISIS" -- in nations such as Brunei, Somalia, and Tajikistan continue openly and formally to express their hostility for Christmas and Christianity. And extremist Muslims -- not "ISIS" -- continue to terrorize and slaughter Christians on Christmas in nations as diverse as Bangladesh, Belgium, the Congo, Germany, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, Philippines, Syria, the West Bank, and even the United States.
On Christmas Day in the West Bank, two Muslims were arrested for setting a Christmas tree on fire in a Christian-majority village near Jenin. On the same day in Bethlehem, Muslim rioters greeted the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem with a hail of stones. Authorities subsequently arrested 16 "Salafi radicals" who were planning to carry out terror attacks against tourists celebrating Christmas.
If this was Christmas in Bethlehem -- Christ's birthplace and scene of the Nativity -- Christmas in other parts of the world experienced similar abuse.
In the United States, a 46-year-old Christian mother of three was among the 14 people killed in the San Bernardino terrorist attack targeting a Christmas party. Ironically, Bennetta Bet-Badal had fled Iran for the U.S. when she was 18 to escape the persecution of Christians after the 1979 Islamic revolution. After graduating from college with a degree in chemistry and marrying and raising three children, the jihad caught up with her. She was attending a Christmas luncheon and bringing gifts to her co-workers when Muslim terrorists burst in and massacred them.
Belgium resembled Bethlehem: A video appeared showing a number of youths lighting a firebomb under a Christmas tree in Brussels. Seconds later, there is an explosion, and the tree is engulfed in flames. Young men shouting "Allahu Akbar," ["Allah is Greater"] run away. The person who originally uploaded the video, Mohamed Amine, has since taken his Facebook page down.
In Germany, four Eastern Orthodox Christians were accosted in the early morning hours after Christmas Day in Berlin by a man shouting, "I am a Muslim! What are you?" The man and his friends then attacked and violently beat the Christians. The few anecdotes of Muslims terrorizing, beating, and even killing Christians on the occasion of Christmas in the West -- where Muslims are minorities -- were expanded in Muslim-majority nations.
Stifling Christmas
In Syria, the Islamic State "arrested, if not executed, some youths [five] in the city of Raqqa for befriending and greeting Christians on the occasion of Christmas." ISIS reportedly told the five youths that "they are being detained after an investigation [including their personal computers], found that they greeted the Christians and wished them a Happy New Year." When one of the youths tried to clear himself, an ISIS member replied: "Shut up! You accompany the Christians -- is that not so?" The five youths were then hauled to an unknown location. There has been no further information on their fate.
ISIS was not alone. The governments of three countries -- Somalia, Tajikistan, and Brunei -- formally banned Christmas (celebrating its Gospel message, putting up trees, dressing like Santa Claus, and giving gifts). Transgressors can face up to five years in prison. Some Islamic clerics in Brunei stated: "Using religious symbols such as crosses, lighting candles, putting up Christmas trees, singing religious songs, sending Christmas greetings ... are against the Islamic faith."
In Bangladesh, churches skipped traditional Christmas midnight mass because of the increasing number of threats against, and attacks on, Christian leaders. Although Christians constitute less than one percent of the Muslim nation, more than three dozen church leaders received death threats and at least four narrowly escaped attempts on their lives.
Although not canceled, Christmas church services were tense and on high alert in the supposedly most "moderate" Muslim nation, Indonesia. More than 150,000 security personnel and others were deployed to safeguard churches around the country during Christmas and New Year's Eve celebrations. Days earlier, on December 20, police arrested six men who had bomb-making materials and jihadi literature.
On December 25 in Iran, a group of about 10 Christians celebrating Christmas were verbally abused and arrested after plain-clothes government agents raided a private service in their home. Separately, on December 23, agents beat, handcuffed, and arrested a Christian man during a raid on his home. His books, computer, mobile phone, and a decorated Christmas tree were seized.
Christmas Carnage
On December 24 in the Philippines, Muslim jihadis terrorized the Christian-majority nation after they seized and executed 10 Christians. A military spokesman said the terrorist attack was intentionally launched on Christmas Eve "to make a statement."
On December 25 in Nigeria, the Islamic group, Boko Haram, slaughtered 16 Christians, including children. The jihadi group has been bombing churches and massacring Christians on Christmas Day for several years in a row. One of the deadliest attacks occurred in 2011, when the jihadis bombed a Catholic church during Christmas mass. They killed 39 and wounded hundreds.
On Christmas Eve in the Democratic Republic of Congo, over 50 people of the Christian-majority nation were massacred by the Ugandan-based group, ADF-Nalu, which "has acquired in recent years the characterization of a jihadist movement."
On Christmas Eve in Iraq, the Islamic State bombed ten Christian homes and a convent in the Assyrian village of Tel Kepe. Several people were injured. On December 30, members of the Islamic State bombed several Christian-owned restaurants in Syria; 16 people were murdered.
Left: The Miami restaurant was bombed by the Islamic State, one of three Christian-owned restaurants bombed in Qamishli, Syria on December 30, killing 16 people. Right: A number of youths set fire to a Christmas tree in a public square in Brussels, Belgium, while yelling "Allahu Akbar" ["Allah is Greater"].
Muslim governmental officials -- not "ISIS" -- in nations such as Brunei, Somalia, and Tajikistan continue openly and formally to express their hostility for Christmas and Christianity. And extremist Muslims -- not "ISIS" -- continue to terrorize and slaughter Christians on Christmas in nations as diverse as Bangladesh, Belgium, the Congo, Germany, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, Philippines, Syria, the West Bank, and even the United States.
**Raymond Ibrahim, author of Crucified Again: Exposing Islam's New War in Christians (a Gatestone Publication, published by Regnery, April 2013), is a Shillman Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center and Judith Friedman Rosen Writing Fellow at the Middle East Forum
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

A Parable for Germany
David P. Goldman/Gatestone Institute/January 18/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7221/germany-parable
Dying Germany has only one item on its bucket list, and that is redemption. The Germans cannot seek redemption from the crimes of their grandparents because they do not understand what motivated them to do such terrible things.
For Merkel and most of Germany's elite, the appearance on Germany's threshold of millions of Muslim refugees is a final chance at redemption, an opportunity for Germany to redeem itself from the crimes of its past through a transcendent act of selflessness.
Denke ich an Deutschland in der Nacht
Dann bin ich um den Schlaf gebracht
If I think of Germany in the night It kills my sleep.
– Heinrich Heine.
Once there was an old man who in his youth committed a terrible crime, the murder of many innocents. He no longer could remember what drove him to do this; he tried not to think about it, and his memories came to mind unwillingly and infrequently. Rage and guilt had faded long ago into a vague residue of disgust. He worked hard and found some distraction in the monotony of daily tasks. He sought diversion in tasteless entertainment; he followed football, looked at pornography, watched the dubbed version of American comedies, and took vacations at the beach.
He had a child but no grandchildren; his child knew that he once did unforgivable things, but did not want to know what they were, and the old man did not want to tell him. The old crime hung like a black curtain between them.
The old man could feel that he did not have long to live. Ahead of him he saw only days clouded with boredom, illuminated only by the occasional flash of regret. He let the days come and go one at a time until their count might come to an end, for he did not know any other way to live. Because he had no ties to life, he had no way to prepare for death.
One day the old man met a street urchin and on an impulse invited him back to his apartment. He fed the strange boy and gave him a place to sleep. The next morning the old man bought the urchin new clothes, and gave him things -- a smartphone, a video-game system, a football jersey. The street kid made himself at home and said little.
Before long, the old man noticed that things had gone missing. A watch that belonged to his father disappeared from a drawer. A silver souvenir goblet no longer stood in the cupboard. Even worse, he came home to find things broken with apparent intent. The remains of a glass pitcher lay in shards on the kitchen floor. The bathroom mirror was cracked. A sofa cushion was slashed.
At length, the old man confronted the boy: "I have only done you good. Why do you do this to me?" The boy laughed at the old man, then punched him. The old man lay on the floor, bleeding from his nose and lips. Perhaps he should call the police? He thought: "No, I will not call the police. What does it matter? I will die soon anyway. Perhaps some good will come of it." The prospect of death robs us of rationality, especially if we perceive that our life has gone wrong.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2015, was the model of rationality, finding resources to backstop Germany's near-bankrupt southern neighbors during the great European debt crisis of 2012, defusing the Ukraine crisis after the Maidan coup and the Russian takeover of Crimea, balancing Atlantic commitments and European integration, while presiding over Europe's only successful major economy. Merkel was rational, that is, until she wasn't.
Admitting 1.2 million Muslim refugees in 2015 and perhaps another million in 2016, and sticking to her guns after the organized mass sexual abuse perpetrated by migrants in Cologne and other German cities on New Year's Eve, was an act of existential despair, not a rational act. What explains this seemingly sudden transformation?
Chancellor Merkel, it seems clear, acted on an impulse that was as sudden as it was irresistible. As the global refugee count passed the 60 million mark last year, Germany did nothing. Between January 1, 2014 and June 30, 2014, fewer than 1000 newspaper stories appeared in the German-language media with the word Flüchtlinge (refugees) -- mostly about boat disasters in the Mediterranean.
A January 2, 2014 story in the Berliner Morgenpost noted that the German government planned for 6,000 refugees in the course of the year. During the second half of the year, more than a quarter of a million stories appeared. Only when the refugee crisis threatened to create a humanitarian disaster on Germany's borders did the Merkel government act.
This kind of impulsiveness begs explanation. Since the Second World War, Germans have preferred not to think about their past, because it is too horrible to contemplate. The German school system dutifully teaches about the Holocaust and German cities dutifully memorialize the murdered Jews; the walls of Frankfurt's old Jewish cemetery are covered with small bronze plaques for every Jew deported from the city. "They will never forgive us for Auschwitz," quipped the Austrian-Israeli psychiatrist Zvi Rix, and Germans often attempt to relativize the crimes of National Socialism by attributing similar things to the Jews. 54% of Germans under the age of 29 have a negative opinion of Israel, according to a January 2015 poll by the Bertelsmann Institute.
Germans work hard and immerse themselves in private life: in hobbies, vacations, and sports. But they do not have children, to a great extent because they do not like themselves. Germany is dying. It can not only foresee, but calculate with a reasonable degree of accuracy, the point at which so few Germans will inhabit the lands between the Rhine and the Oder that it will be as meaningless to speak of Germans as it is to speak of Etruscans or the people of Thrace. At 1.3 children per woman, Germany's population of young people (0 to 19 years) and working-age adults (20 to 64 years) will halve by the end of the present century.
Dying Germany has only one item on its bucket list, and that is redemption. The Germans cannot seek redemption from the crimes of their grandparents because they do not understand what motivated them to do such terrible things. Their great-grandparents during World War I believed in the superiority of German culture, and their grandparents during World War II believed in the superiority of the Aryan race. Today's Germans can only believe that no culture and no race has any claim to precedence, and that all the world's cultures have equal value.
Israel's unabashed nationalism horrifies them, because National Socialism's claim to the status of "master race" was a Satanic parody of the Election of Israel. Jewish strength and success, in German eyes, are an uncomfortable reminder of the Nazis' perversion of the biblical idea of Chosenness.
For Merkel and most of Germany's elite, the appearance on Germany's threshold of millions of Muslim refugees is a final chance at redemption, an opportunity for Germany to redeem itself from the crimes of its past through a transcendent act of selflessness. The Germans turned away from self-sacrifice for the Fatherland to the extreme of self-absorption. Germany became materialistic, irreligious, and Philistine. But self-absorption was a poor distraction from the sense of horror that lingered after the Second World War. The Nazis used terror and horror -- Schrecken und Entzsetzen (lit. "dislodgement") to bind the German people to their leadership. The prospect of new horrors arising not from a clash of civilization, but from internal clashes within Muslim civilization, is too much for the Germans to bear, because it recalls the horrors of the past war.
That is why Germans tumbled headlong into their decision to admit millions of Muslim refugees only when the horrors of war presented themselves on Germany's own doorstep. Until the flood of refugees reached Central Europe last summer, Germany showed little interest in their problems. As noted, Germany had prepared to admit only 6,000 refugees in 2015. Not until September, after a news photo of a drowned Kurdish boy went viral, and a dozen decomposing bodies were found in an abandoned truck in Austria, did Merkel declare, "Wir schaffen es." ["We can do it."] It is also why Germany will not reverse this policy no matter what sort of crimes the refugees commit.
Mrs. Merkel's rationality crumbles before the horrific prospect of human suffering. Germany's elites hope that one last, great national valedictory act will open the prospect of redemption.
Ordinary Germans, to be sure, do not like to be assaulted sexually by organized mobs, or subjected to other social pathologies that the refugees bring with them. Despite some objections, including some very vocal ones, Germans nonetheless will do what the Obrigkeit [Authority] tells them, just as they always have done.
Sadly, Germany is looking for redemption in all the wrong places. Its obsession with helping the refugees is not a mistake or a misjudgment, but an existential impulse so powerful that all the evidence in the world of the baleful effects of this policy will not outweigh it. There is no dissuading the Germans from hastening their own destruction. They can only stand as a terrifying example for the rest of us.
David Goldman is an American economist, author and a principle of Asia Times HK, Ltd.
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An unshackled Iran can only be countered by a firm Saudi Arabia
Faisal J. Abbas/Al Arabiya/January 18/16
With the nuclear deal sealed and sanctions lifted, an unshackled Iran is now a reality. The region – and the world at large – now holds its breath in anticipation of what kind of global player the Islamic Republic wants to be. Not even the harshest critics of the deal – which was agreed with the U.S. and other superpowers last year – can argue against the fact that the world would be a safer place without the threat of a nuclear Iran. At the same time, not even the most passionate advocates of this deal can comfort regional U.S. allies (namely Gulf countries, who were excluded from the negotiations) that an unshackled Iran will not use its newly-obtained resources and freedom to create further regional upheaval.
‘True Religion’ will never be a pair of jeans
Advocates of the deal will argue that – theoretically – as soon as the Islamic Republic sinks its teeth into a juicy Big Mac and then sips through its first Starbucks latte, it will abandon its extremist ideology and expansionist dreams in favor of rebuilding its economy and raising living standards for its people.
But let’s face it, these are extremely simplistic assumptions and turn a blind eye to the reality of the Iranian regime which has – from day one – sought to use religion to justify the promotion of regional upheaval and extended its reach by providing loyalist paramilitary groups with support. Advocates of the deal will argue that – theoretically – as soon as the Islamic Republic sinks its teeth into a juicy Big Mac and then sips through its first Starbucks latte, it will abandon its extremist ideology and expansionist dreams. Indeed, “true religion” for the Mullahs will never simply mean a pair of jeans. This was evident last year when during the closing stages of the nuclear deal, Iranian officials bragged that their country has now formed a new empire which occupies four Arab capitals. Advocates of the deal also ignore the fact that Iran, despite decades of sanctions, managed to afford to channel billions of dollars to fund regional terrorist groups, according to U.S. government findings published recently in The Washington Times. Iranian money has been used to destabilize the region; from funding Hezbollah in Lebanon, to Asaib Ahl al-Haq in Iraq, to the Houthis in Yemen and even Sunni terrorists such al-Qaeda on the grounds that the enemy of my enemy (in this case Saudi Arabia) is my friend. The obvious question is that if Tehran could do all of this with sanctions imposed, how much more damage can it cause now that they are lifted and the government is due to receive approximately $100 billion?
More recent examples
We only need to consider events which unfolded in the past few weeks to understand that Iran has no intention to play nice. It also appears in no mood to give its moderates the opportunity to use the nuclear deal to truly reform the country. On one hand Iran claimed it couldn’t control its own thugs who burnt down the Saudi embassy in Tehran, and President Rowhani (supposedly a moderate who had hoped to mend ties with GCC countries) was quick to condemn the attackers describing them as “criminals.”On the other hand, Iran seemed perfectly capable and mighty when it swiftly arrested a number of U.S. Marines who barely trespassed into territorial waters. Iran made quite a big show out of humiliating what it describes as “Great Satan” just before President Obama was due to give his final State of the Union address.
One really wonders who Iran thinks it is fooling, but that is not the issue as, at the end of the day, the truth will eventually emerge. We only need to consider events which unfolded in the past few weeks to understand that Iran has no intention to play nice
However, what is really bewildering is the global reaction of astonishment and caution towards Saudi Arabia’s new firm foreign policy. I can’t find a better answer to this than what Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Jubair recently said in a televised interview that the kingdom is in a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” kind of situation. On one hand, Riyadh has repeatedly been asked to lead and fight its own wars to end regional injustice and acts of hostility, but then doesn’t get the support it was promised. On the other hand, I don’t see the U.S. or any of the global powers rushing in to stabilize the region – and I am sure if it did, then all its allies would have been happy to wholeheartedly lend their support. There needs to be checks and balances and so far, the only way to counter the potential threats from an unshackled Iran is to have a decisive and pro-active Saudi Arabia.However, lets always keep in mind that if Iran chooses to abandon its mischief and revert to respecting its boundaries, then there is no doubt that a new era of peace and prosperity will be in everyone’s interest.

Is ISIS preparing for its own demise?
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/January 18/16
The phenomenon of global jihadism has been around in its current, recognizable form since the ‘90s. It achieved definition in the decade of conflict in Afghanistan during its disastrous series of civil wars that lasted in some form or another from the 70s to the early 90s. The Islamist mujahedeen ultimately won that war. And in the process, they humiliated the Soviet Union, who had supported the previous socialist government. It is no overstatement that this conflict contributed significantly to the collapse of the Soviet Empire. What nobody expected, however, was that the ideology of the mujahedeen would rise in the decade following the withdrawal of the Soviets to become the main ideological contender and geopolitical enemy of the liberal West in the wake of the collapse of communism. The Afghan War may have been a key Cold War battleground in the clash between the Soviets and the Western allies who supported, financially and militarily, the Islamists, but outside of that conflict there is no reason why Afghanistan should have been so important for the subsequent geopolitical developments. But that conflict was, for an important group of people, much more than a fight over the Soviets’ sphere of influence. Young, Muslim fighters from a hugely diverse backgrounds, and with different ideological motivations, converged into Afghanistan from all over the Muslim world, and indeed beyond. The place became a melting pot of Islamism and war theology. The end result was the ideology of permanent global jihad that, after Afghanistan, would spread all over the world, to Arabia, Saharan and sub-Saharan Africa, Chechnya in Russia, the former Yugoslav territories in Europe, and ultimately culminated in the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center in the United States.
Ideology of terror
That ideology is now a permanent feature of the world order – and possibly the greatest threat, not just to the West, but to the Western-dominated global system of nation-states. What has made it so is a remarkable combination of ideological and strategic consistency, the aim being the destabilisation and ultimate destruction of non-Muslim powers, with incredible tactical flexibility. ISIS almost succeeded in dragging the West into yet another war in the Middle East – though instead they have caught Russia in the spider’s web. Al-Qaeda was the first organization to become a sort of spiritual leader to the movement, and its tactic has been to draw the West into unwinnable wars in the Middle East. These wars, Afghanistan and Iraq, may not have led to the collapse of the West in the same way that the original Afghan conflict for the Soviets, but it most certainly made it overextend. The West now sits much weakened as a result.
In the past 10 years or so, the West would no longer be dragged into such conflicts. Libya, Syria, post-insurgency Iraq, and even post-withdrawal Afghanistan: the West would not allow itself to be dragged into land wars it understood it could not win, and stood nothing to gain from. Nor would the West be goaded by waves upon waves of terror attacks and attempted attacks on their soil. Yet from the ashes of so many failing states, a new organization came to the fore, with a new tactical approach: the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). While the guerrilla tactics of Al-Qaeda were beginning to fail, the group contended, instead, that they should simply establish a new, Islamic, state to make concrete their alternative vision of the ideal society as a challenge to the Western global order. And sure enough, that got everyone’s attention. ISIS has dominated much of the international political discourse for the past four-five years. It almost succeeded in dragging the West into yet another war in the Middle East – though instead they have caught Russia in the spider’s web. And while the focus shifted towards Syria and Iraq, and to a lesser extent Libya, the Levant region became a sort of global focus for the energies of the global jihadism. Thousands upon thousands of recruits from all over the world clamoured to join the new ‘Caliphate’, and the propaganda machine of the group looked invincible, as many groups in other areas of instability in the Islamic world would pledge allegiance, as well as self-starter terrorist cells in the West. ISIS tried its best to coordinate all these people and all their energy towards planting firm roots for their ‘state’ in the Levant.
Losing momentum
That worked extremely well for the jihadis. For a while. But for the past few months, things are becoming palpably different. For one, the most important propaganda asset ISIS has had was military momentum: the way in which it seemingly came out of nowhere to control large swathes of Syria and Iraq, and took important cities and oil fields. That momentum has long since lost. Initially, they could take territory outside of the Sunni-dominated areas of the Levant, but they could not hold it for long. Now, they cannot even do that. The Kurds in the north have become safely entrenched, with the help of Western air-strikes to support them, Iraq in the east and south east has rebuffed any further advancement with the help of Iran, and Syria in the west, though it looked like it might collapse any moment for most of last year. The Russian intervention in support of Assad has completely turned the tables in that conflict. None of these now look vulnerable. What now seems likely is that ISIS will simply be eroded with a long war of attrition, until the group can no longer gain enough recruits to be able to sustain its gains. At which point, it is likely it will collapse. It will not be easy, and it will not be pretty. But it seems like the most likely outcome.
This seems to have motivated a tactical change, yet again, from the jihadists: a large part of ISIS propaganda has now shifted away from trying to recruit people for the paradise of the Caliphate, back towards the original Al-Qaeda approach to inspire self-starter terrorist actions abroad, to destabilise hostile countries. If and when the Caliphate collapses, expect a wave of these people to spread all across the region and beyond. But in the meantime, local self-starter cells are preparing the way with attacks such as those in Indonesia, Paris, and the U.S. They seem to be aware of the fact that this will be the most effective way to continue their influence on the global state. So ISIS seems to be smelling its own impending doom: we need to brace ourselves for what comes next.

For economic revival, Iran needs more than just diplomacy
Camelia Entekhabi-Fard/Al Arabiya/January 18/16
On January 16, Iran returned to the international community after 12 years of isolation with the implementation of the nuclear accord and lifting of oil and financial sanctions. The sanctions were lifted after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a report verifying Iran’s commitment to the deal by dismantling large section of its nuclear program. This marked the arrival of a historic day that so many Iranians have been waiting for. The question that now arises is what changes are likely following the implementation of this accord? Iran needs foreign investment and the engagement of the private sector to improve its embattled economic infrastructure. Stability and security are the most important challenges that determine a nation’s economic performance and play a crucial role in encouraging foreign investment. On the face of it, Iran’s diplomacy has succeeded as President Rowhani put it in his encounter with the media on January 17. However, economic revival needs more than just diplomacy. American companies continue to be the world’s biggest investors, especially in oil and gas sectors. The presence of U.S. firms anywhere in the world encourages other companies to enter into the market. Iran has already suffered huge losses as a result of the U.S. ban on companies doing business with in the country.
Funds for good
For Iran, a fruitful outcome of this deal will be the release of its funds frozen in foreign banks. These funds, estimated to be around $100 billion, are certain to come in handy considering Iran’s need for capital. However, according to the country’s central bank governor, the exact amount Iran can have access to is $32.6 billion. The government can use this money to pay off delayed salaries of government employees or cut down its deficit. In the long term though, Iran can invest this money in non-oil sectors to improve its economy. This process is likely to take time. Oil prices, already hovering at the lowest levels in a decade, could plunge even lower with Iran beginning to export the commodity. The country’s oil minister said recently that Tehran will raise oil exports by 500,000 a day within a week after the removal of international sanctions. He also said that the country has no intention to harm the oil market with its planned increase as the market is suffering from overproduction.
Iran needs foreign investment and the engagement of the private sector to improve its embattled economic infrastructure.Owing to the oil embargo continuing for years Iran has lost its customers to other suppliers. Luring them back would entail giving greater discounts. It is estimated that Iran will export oil at around $20-$22 per barrel. The Iranian public expect that the nuclear deal will have positive effect on their lives. This may soon turn into disappointment as the changes wouldn’t come soon. Iran’s regional behavior is going to be another factor and may become a deterrent for the investors.
Some European companies may see great business opportunity in Iran. But concerns over internal tussle within the government may compel them to think about it carefully.
Challenges going forward
Some difficulties and challenges cannot be ignored when it comes to full implementation of the Iranian deal. Iran’s ballistic missile program, and the support it has given to groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas, have labelled the nation as sponsor of terrorism, whether they like it or not. Just a day after the nuclear deal was implemented the U.S. Treasury imposed new sanctions on Iran’s ballistic missile program. “We have consistently made clear that the US will vigorously press sanctions against Iranian activities outside of the JCPOA.” said Adam Szubin, acting under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence. This action targets 11 individuals and entities responsible for supporting Iran’s ballistic missile program. The next stage for Iran is to demonstrate its commitment to diplomacy and becoming a reliable nation. This will be put to test during the Syria talks to be held in Geneva in the near future. With the influence Iran has on government of Assad in Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the world will be watching how this regime acts in the post-sanctions era. President Obama, who appeals directly to Iranians, has urged them to build new ties with the world. We have to wait and see how Iran goes about doing this.

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