LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
January 23/16

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

Bible Quotations For Today
So if I, your Lord and Teacher, have washed your feet, you also ought to wash one another’s feet.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 13/13-17:"You call me Teacher and Lord and you are right, for that is what I am. So if I, your Lord and Teacher, have washed your feet, you also ought to wash one another’s feet. For I have set you an example, that you also should do as I have done to you. Very truly, I tell you, servants are not greater than their master, nor are messengers greater than the one who sent them. If you know these things, you are blessed if you do them."

Appoint elders in every town, as I directed you: someone who is blameless, married only once, whose children are believers, not accused of debauchery and not rebellious.
Letter to Titus 01/01-09: "Paul, a servant of God and an apostle of Jesus Christ, for the sake of the faith of God’s elect and the knowledge of the truth that is in accordance with godliness, in the hope of eternal life that God, who never lies, promised before the ages began in due time he revealed his word through the proclamation with which I have been entrusted by the command of God our Saviour, To Titus, my loyal child in the faith we share: Grace and peace from God the Father and Christ Jesus our Saviour. I left you behind in Crete for this reason, that you should put in order what remained to be done, and should appoint elders in every town, as I directed you: someone who is blameless, married only once, whose children are believers, not accused of debauchery and not rebellious. For a bishop, as God’s steward, must be blameless; he must not be arrogant or quick-tempered or addicted to wine or violent or greedy for gain; but he must be hospitable, a lover of goodness, prudent, upright, devout, and self-controlled. He must have a firm grasp of the word that is trustworthy in accordance with the teaching, so that he may be able both to preach with sound doctrine and to refute those who contradict it.

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on january 22-23/16
Free Citizens do not trust any politician blindly unless they are mere Sheep/Elias Bejjani/22 January/16
Hezbollah after the sanctions/Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon/January 22/16
Aoun-Geagea new alliance/Political ploys gather pace in Lebanon/Martin Jay/http://www.dw.com/January 22/16
Lebanon’s Government Is Destroying A Phoenician Beach In Adloun To Build A Port/Agencies/January 22/16
Israel warms to Sunni powers, questions US' Palestinian focus/Paul Alster Published /FoxNews.com/January 22/16
Michel Samaha, a stranger in his homeland/Nayla Tueni/Al Arabyia/January 22/16
Was Beirut airport threat real or political conspiracy/Jean Aziz/Al-Monitor/January 22/16
Libya's Chaos: Threat to the West/Mohamed Chtatou/Gatestone Institute/January 22, 201
How long can Saudi Arabia afford Yemen war/Amal Nasser/Al-Monitor/January 22/16
Rouhani: Not even the first Shiite imam was this strict/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/January 22/16
Why one former IDF chief of staff may be heading for politics/Mazal Mualem/Al-Monitor/January 22/16
King Salman sets Saudi Arabia on a re-energized path/Andrew Bowen/Al Arabyia/January 22/16
Ban Muslims? Which ones/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabyia/January 22/16
Behind the Iranian mixed reaction to lifted sanctions/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabyia/January 22/16
After a year in power, King Salman’s economic reforms are key/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Al Arabyia/January 22/16

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on january 22-23/16
Free Citizens do not trust any politician blindly unless they are mere Sheep
Sami Gemayel: We Won't Elect Any March 8 Candidate, LF-FPM Agreement Not Based on Clear Vision
Upcoming French Mediation to Resolve the Presidential Crisis in Lebanon
Geagea: Hizbullah Will Lose Aoun as Ally if it Fails to Elect him as President
Kanaan Meets Geagea: Agreement on Presidency Must Be Expanded to Include all Blocs
Salam: Iran's Intrusive Behavior Triggered Conflict with Saudi
Foreign Ministry Says OIC Abstention 'Didn't Breach Any Consensus'
Hariri Criticizes Bassil 'Unilateral' Stance at Organization of Islamic Cooperation
Report: Soldier who Defected to IS Arrested in Akkar
Regular Cabinet Session Scheduled for January 28
Intelligence Agents Free Abducted Businessman
Qahwaji in U.S. Next Month, Reviews Deals on Arming Troops
Rivalries Likely to Keep Baabda Palace Vacant
U.S. Officials Warn against Prolonged Vacuum, Not Sure President will be Elected
Italian Church Group in Lebanon to Open Refugee 'Humanitarian Corridor'
Hezbollah after the sanctions
Aoun-Geagea new alliance/Political ploys gather pace in Lebanon
Lebanon’s Government Is Destroying A Phoenician Beach In Adloun To Build A Port
Israel warms to Sunni powers, questions US' Palestinian focus
Paul Alster Published /FoxNews.com/January 21/16
Michel Samaha, a stranger in his homeland
Was Beirut airport threat real or political conspiracy?

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on january 22-23/16
Iran’s Soleimani makes public appearance
Syrian president’s cousin sentenced for killing officer: pro-regime media
Kremlin denies report Putin envoy asked Syria's Assad to step down
Turkey Failing to Set Example on Media Rights, Says Biden
U.S. says troops ‘needed’ to retake ISIS-held cities
Many Iraqis abandon Finnish asylum process to return home
China president starts Iran visit
Russian or Syrian air raids kill dozens in east
Germany urges Kurdistan to keep better tabs on arms
How soon can Iran take a deep breath after sanctions relief?
Kerry: ‘extraordinary challenges’ lie ahead in the world
Iraqi PM expresses doubts that 3 Americans were kidnapped
Erdogan: Turkey won’t allow Syrian Kurdish PYD to west of Euphrates
At Least 44 Migrants Dead as Boats Sink on Way to Greece
Tunisia Imposes Curfew after Worst Post-Revolt Unrest
U.N. Refugee Chief Urges Safe Routes to Europe

Links From Jihad Watch Site for january 22-23/16
Australia: Muslims threaten police, follow officers home and use drones to spy on them.
Pakistan: Muslims screaming “Allahu akbar” storm university, murder at least 20 people.
Qatar school removes Snow White book after indecency complaint.
Hugh Fitzgerald: Islam Is Not A Mystery.
Muslims kill Christian girl: “Christian girls are only meant for one thing: the pleasure of Muslim men”.
Obama releases al Qaeda bomb expert from Guantánamo.
Somalia: Muslims set off car bombs at restaurant, many casualties.
Kerry admits some Iran sanctions relief money will go to jihad terrorism.
Nonie Darwish Moment: Why is Obama Defending Islam at Any Cost?.
SIOE/SIOA/AFDI Announce a New Leader of SIO Deutschland (Germany).
Robert Spencer in PJ Media: Iran: ‘We Welcome War with the United States’.
UK’s Daily Mail: Buddhist monk slashed tires “because of his religious beliefs”.
To check jihad activity, Tajikistan cops shave 13,000 men’s beards.
Afghanistan: Muslim cuts off wife’s nose after argument over his taking six-year-old as second wife.

Free Citizens do not trust any politician blindly unless they are mere Sheep
Elias Bejjani/22 January/16
You can’t dance alone; you need a partner to dance with. Sadly Lebanese and faith wise Aoun is a narcist, a chameleon and does not respect or honour any vows or obligations, no matter what.
Quite frankly Aoun is worst than ISIS and Hezbollah because he is an opportunist politician, a Trojan, totally void of any human morals, respects no ethical or patriotic codes, and definitely unstable by all means and in all domains, and at the same time lacks any sort of gratitude.
In summary he is unbalanced, unstable and can’t be trust.
Accordingly Dr. Geagea took a dire risk in nominating this deviated and derailed politician.
Meanwhile, the reconciliation between the LF and FPM, was great, but not the nomination of Aoun for the presidency post.
Personally, No I do not trust blindly any Lebanese politician including Dr. Geagea. Based on this dire risk, I can’t justify Geagea’s sudden turn towards Hezbollah and his puppet, Aoun and with full conscience see in this stance a sin by all standards

Sami Gemayel: We Won't Elect Any March 8 Candidate, LF-FPM Agreement Not Based on Clear Vision
Naharnet/January 22/16/Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel stressed Friday that his party will not vote for any candidate who belongs to the March 8 camp in the presidential elections, noting that any agreement between the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement must be based on a “clear vision.”
“We have been invited to vote for (Change and Reform bloc chief) General (Michel) Aoun and we'll be clear on this. We said from the very first moment that Kataeb is not concerned with the candidate's identity but rather with his project,” Gemayel said at a press conference, referring to LF leader Samir Geagea's recent endorsement of Aoun's presidential bid.
“This is not a syndical vote so that we disregard the political platform and we will not elect a candidate carrying March 8's project,” Gemayel emphasized.
“We will not elect a March 8 candidate, regardless whether he is a 'genuine' one or 'made in Taiwan'. We want someone carrying a Lebanese project,” Kataeb's chief added, referring to recent remarks by Geagea.
The LF leader had noted Wednesday that Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh “is a 'genuine' member of March 8 while the General (Aoun) is only allied with them and has the ability to move to the center more than Franjieh.”
Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of successor.
Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri launched late in 2015 a proposal to nominate Franjieh as president. Geagea, Hariri's ally in the March 14 camp, was a presidential nominee at the time and some observers have said that the LF leader's nomination of Aoun is a “reaction” to Hariri's proposal.
“Any candidate is free to abandon March 8's project and move closer to us,” Gemayel said on Friday.
“The General wants to be a consensual president and accordingly we will ask him a series of questions. What is his stance on Lebanon's foreign policy, especially regarding the Syrian crisis? Is he with Bashar, with the opposition or neutral?” Gemayel asked.
He cautioned that the next president's stance on the Syrian issue would have “a major impact on Lebanon.”
“We don't want a president who would undermine the state's sovereignty,” Gemayel added, referring to a clause about the movement of militants across the porous Lebanese-Syrian border that was mentioned in the LF-FPM Declaration of Intent.
Commenting on the Aoun-Geagea meeting that was held Monday in Maarab, Gemayel underlined that “there is no doubt that any positive scene gives hope to the Lebanese.”
“We take our stances patiently and according to national standards. Today we're witnessing a reconciliation between two groups that had been in conflict for a long time. That conflict had deeply affected the Lebanese society and Christians and this reconciliation is important given all these negative repercussions,” Gemayel added.
“We had worked for this reconciliation throughout ten years and we encouraged the parties to hold this meeting,” he noted.
He described the Maarab “reconciliation” as an “important opportunity.”
“Out of keenness on it we want it to be built on firm foundations, in order to protect it and prevent its collapse. That's why we call on the parties to capitalize on this positive step,” Gemayel said.
He noted however that “a reconciliation is something and a political agreement is something else.”
“The reconciliation is aimed at turning the page on the past and its disputes, ending a certain negative state and starting a positive journey towards the future. A political agreement, however, must be built on a common vision,” Gemayel explained.
“The LF and the FPM have decided today to move to a new stage and to forge an alliance aimed at being in power. They moved from reconciliation to joint action through a political alliance and this is something healthy, but we want it to happen according to clear principles,” Gemayel stated.
“The political coalition must be based on a clear vision for Lebanon's future which we must carry to power, because if we don't agree on a certain political platform we would be subjecting ourselves to bigger divisions and disappointments,” he went on to say.
Kataeb's chief noted that any Christian political agreement must be based on “four main principles” that a lot of young men had “sacrificed their lives for.”
“The first constant principle is preserving Lebanon's sovereignty and this is non-debatable. The second one is neutralizing Lebanon, as amid the regional conflict and the sectarian divisions we must refrain from taking part in the conflict or siding with a camp against another,” he explained.
“The third principle is improving our political system and constitution and the fourth one is returning to institutions and abiding by the constitution,” Gemayel added.
“We must not renounce the state of law and if we want a political alliance it must be based on these four principles, not on short-lived interests,” he stressed.
Gemayel also noted that if there is an inclination to move from “general ideas to a strategic alliance and a vision for Lebanon,” Kataeb would be “the first party that is willing to be part of such a joint action.”

Upcoming French Mediation to Resolve the Presidential Crisis in Lebanon
Asharq Al Awsat/January 22/16/Berri and Jounblat evades nominating Aoun..While Hezbullah put off revealing their position. Upcoming French Mediation to Resolve the Presidential Crisis in Lebanon. Upcoming French Mediation to Resolve the Presidential Crisis in Lebanon.Averting to take position on the move of the Lebanese Forces’ President nominating his historic opponent, the leader of “Change and Reform”, could be labeled as the political feature theme in the Lebanese scene, yesterday; where every team took some “wiggle room” to take position on the presidential post nomination of the Republic that has been vacant since May 2014. By the time it is said that the French ambassador in Beirut is working on resolving the situation between the Lebanese political leaders. Conversely, it seemed crystal clear that the Aoun-Geagea consensus is inadequate to resolve the presidential issue, with both sides being incapable of persuading their allies of this agreement that has for fact stunned many, for what both Christian leaders’ past partook in conflicts and bloodsheds. For instance, Geagea failed in convincing his ally the “Future Movement” aka Tayar Al-Mustakbal, in adopting Aoun’s candidacy nomination, where the team persisted on nominating Aoun’s ally, MP Suleiman Franjieh for the post; and Aoun did not succeed in persuading the Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in voting for him, as the latter seemed to clutch tightly to the nomination of Franjieh. Neither did Aoun succeed in influencing the “central” Walid Jumblat and his bloc of 11 deputies to win their votes, as Jumblatt evaded again by nominating MP Henri AlHelou, member of his bloc; a move that proves his willingness to provide the quorum for the session, yet without having to cast a vote for either of the aforementioned candidates. Correspondingly, Jumblatt’s bloc delivered a moderate statement yesterday, that contents all sides, yet does not pledge either of them, to an extent that Jumblatt himself mocked the clarity he stood by, while Hezbollah’s bloc postponed the session that was scheduled for tomorrow.

Geagea: Hizbullah Will Lose Aoun as Ally if it Fails to Elect him as President
Naharnet/January 22/16/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea noted that Hizbullah is facing a “major test” regarding his recent endorsement of Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun as president, reported al-Arabiya television on Friday. He told the station: “The party will lose its ally, Aoun, if it fails to vote for him as president.”“Hizbullah's failure to endorse Aoun's nomination will have major repercussions,” he predicted, while revealing that he does not have direct contacts with the party. “The ongoing presidential vacuum pushed us to nominate Aoun for president,” Geagea explained of the meeting that was held at Maarab on Monday with his long-time rival. “I sought, behind closed doors, to include all possible guarantees in the Maarab meeting. I believe that the greatest guarantees however were broadcast to the whole world when the agreement was declared,” continued Geagea.
Asked if he can guarantee that Aoun will remain committed to the agreement, he replied: “Those who do not see issues from a flexible perspective will not be able to progress in life.”Addressing his ties with Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri, he said: “I haven't held talks with him in a long time.”
“I spoke to him around the time he nominated Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president and then once after that,” he revealed. “My ties with Hariri are not at their best due to the developments over the presidency. I will try my best to improve them,” Geagea stressed. Hariri nominated Franjieh as president in late 2015 even though Geagea, his ally in the March 14 camp, was also a nominee. This led to tensions between the Mustaqbal Movement and LF.Franjieh declared in wake of the Maarab meeting that he was still running for the presidency. The Democratic Gathering on Thursday stated that its candidate Henri Helou is also still in the running. The next electoral session is scheduled for February 2.

Kanaan Meets Geagea: Agreement on Presidency Must Be Expanded to Include all Blocs
Naharnet/January 22/16/Change and Reform bloc MP Ibrahim Kanaan urged on Friday political parties to “take advantage” of the agreement that was reached on Monday between Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and bloc head MP Michel Aoun. He said after holding talks with Geagea at Maarab: “The agreement should be expanded to include all political blocs.”“We cannot exclude anyone and we urge all sides to support the agreement,” he added. “The understanding goes beyond being a Christian-Christian one, but it applies to the whole of Lebanon,” Kanaan said. Geagea and his long-time rival Aoun held a landmark meeting on Monday during which he endorsed the MP for the presidency in an attempt to end the deadlock over the country's top post. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Since Monday's Maarab meeting, Change and Reform officials have been holding talks with numerous political figures to persuade them to support Geagea's endorsement.

Salam: Iran's Intrusive Behavior Triggered Conflict with Saudi
Naharnet/January 22/16/Prime Minister Tammam Salam stated on Friday that the Iranian meddling in the Arab world is the origin of the conflict with Saudi Arabia. “Iran's interference in the affairs of the Arab world is the root of the conflict with Saudi Arabia,” the Premier said at the World Economic Forum panel in Davos, Switzerland. “We have to work for the sake of our people. We have to provide them with stability and to hold on to moderation,” he added. “The continuation of the current conformation will lead to more destruction and will prevent stability in the region.”Salam voiced calls to support the approach of moderation and fight extremism, stressing that “the key to that is by stopping poverty and implementing economic and developmental projects needed.”A conflict arose lately between Saudi Arabia and Iran over the latter's attacks against the Saudi embassy and consulate in Tehran and Mashad respectively following the kingdom's execution of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr. The World Economic Forum in Davos has seen many attendees who were discussing uncertainty about Syria's war and other geopolitical troubles that have weighed on an already wobbly global economy.

Foreign Ministry Says OIC Abstention 'Didn't Breach Any Consensus'
Naharnet/January 22/16/Lebanon's Foreign Ministry stressed Friday that its decision to abstain from voting on a statement condemning Iran during a meeting for the world's top Muslim body was in line with Lebanon's dissociation policy as well as with the stances that were voiced during the last national dialogue session. “Prior to the meeting, the ministry instructed Lebanon's ambassador to the organization to take the same stance that had been taken at the Arab League should the closing statement contain the same implications,” it said in a communique. This decision was taken “out of commitment to the government's policy on dissociating Lebanon from such issues ... and in line with the consensus that was clearly reflected during the national dialogue session when the foreign minister explained the circumstances that had necessitated the Lebanese stance” that was taken at the Arab League, the ministry added. Its clarifications come after al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri and Mustaqbal bloc chief MP Fouad Saniora strongly criticized the decision to abstain from voting and described it as a breach of Arab consensus on supporting Saudi Arabia. The Lebanese stance “is one that preserves national unity through its adherence to the ministerial Policy Statement and the national unity government's policy,” the ministry stressed on Friday. Reiterating its condemnation of the attacks on Saudi Arabia's missions in Iran, the ministry noted that “Lebanon's decision to abstain from voting did not breach any consensus, seeing as it was an abstention and not an objection.” It also noted that the closing statement was met with an objection and an abstention from two other countries. The statement issued at the end of an OIC meeting Thursday at its headquarters in the Saudi city of Jeddah said the organization "condemns the aggressions against the missions of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Tehran and Mashhad." It followed an extraordinary meeting requested by Saudi Arabia after protesters in Iran in early January set fire to the embassy in Tehran and a consulate in the second city of Mashhad. The violence against Riyadh's missions occurred after Saudi Arabia executed prominent dissident Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr, a driving force behind anti-government protests in the kingdom.

Hariri Criticizes Bassil 'Unilateral' Stance at Organization of Islamic Cooperation
Naharnet/January 22/16/Al-Mustaqbal movement chief Saad Hariri criticized on Friday the stance of the Foreign Ministry at the Organization of Islamic Meeting on Iran, stressing that it does not reflect the opinion of the majority of the Lebanese.
“The foreign ministry's unilateral decision at the Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting does not reflect the position of the majority of the Lebanese,” Hariri stressed in a statement. “A dissociation policy turns into alignments when the Lebanese foreign ministry finds itself for the second time standing alone outside a position supported by the OIC,” the statement added. Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil expressed Lebanon's rejection of an Organization of Islamic Cooperation statement condemning Iran. An emergency meeting of the foreign ministers of the OIC condemned on Thursday the attacks on Saudi missions and denounced Tehran's regional "interference". OIC foreign ministers said in a statement that it "condemns the aggressions against the missions of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Tehran and Mashhad". Early in January, top Arab diplomats rallied behind Saudi Arabia, except Lebanon, in a dispute with Iran that has threatened to derail efforts to resolve Middle East conflicts including the war in Syria. The Arab League session was requested by Saudi Arabia to discuss the attacks against its embassy and consulate in Tehran following the execution of cleric Nimr al-Nimr. The meeting's closing statement condemned Iran over the attacks on the Saudi diplomatic missions and alleged interference in the affairs of several Arab countries. “Are we in an attempt to dissociate Lebanon from diplomacy and arabism, and push it instead towards Iran's hostility and its interests for expansion?” asked Hariri. He warned that dissociating Lebanon from diplomacy and from arabism is a “bad omen,” pointing to an “attempt to dominate the national decision against the will of the majority of the Lebanese.”

Report: Soldier who Defected to IS Arrested in Akkar
Naharnet/January 22/16/A Lebanese soldier who had defected to the Islamic State group in 2014 has been arrested in the northern region of Akkar, a media report said on Friday. “The Internal Security Forces Intelligence Branch arrested in Akkar Lebanese army deserter Mohammed Abdul Aziz Youssef, who hails from the town of Mashha,” al-Jadeed television reported. The soldier “had defected to the IS group in Arsal's outskirts in the year 2014,” the TV network added. “He was arrested after an exchange of gunfire at the intersection of the town of Kousha,” al-Jadeed said. Several soldiers have defected to the IS and the Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front in recent years. In October 2014, the soldiers Mohammed Antar and Abdullah Ahmed Shehadeh announced their defection to al-Nusra in separate videos. The first time a Lebanese soldier defected to the Qaida-linked group was in July that year. Another soldier defected to the extremist Islamic State group also in late 2014. Militants from the IS and Nusra are entrenched in mountainous regions along the porous Lebanese-Syrian border. The Lebanese army regularly shells their positions and Hizbullah fighters have engaged in clashes with them on the Syrian side of the border. The fighters of the two extremist groups stormed Arsal in August 2014 and engaged in bloody battles with Lebanese troops and policemen. They eventually withdrew after a ceasefire but took with them over 30 hostages from the army and the police, of whom four have been executed.
Sixteen Lebanese servicemen were freed in a swap deal with al-Nusra in early December.

Regular Cabinet Session Scheduled for January 28
Naharnet/January 22/16/The government is expected to hold a regular meeting next week, with a number of articles on its agenda. A cabinet session has been scheduled for 5:00pm on Thursday, reported Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3). The meeting has 379 articles on its agenda. The cabinet had last convened on January 14, but ministers of the Change and Reform and Loyalty to the Resistance blocs had boycotted it over the dispute on the military appointments.The Change and Reform bloc is calling for the appointment of senior military and security officers, especially to fill the vacancies in the military council, as a condition for attending cabinet sessions.

Intelligence Agents Free Abducted Businessman
Naharnet/January 22/16/The Internal Security Forces Intelligence Branch set free on Friday kidnapped businessman Raji Chamoun and arrested one of his abductors. An ISF communique said Chamoun was kidnapped in the area of Souq al-Ahad in Beirut on Thursday. The abductors asked for a one million dollar ransom, it said. But Intelligence Branch agents were able in less than 24 hours to free Chamoun in an ambush in the area of Baabdat while the assailants were trying to take him to the eastern Bekaa Valley. The officers arrested one of the kidnappers, a 30-year-old Lebanese, the communique added.

Qahwaji in U.S. Next Month, Reviews Deals on Arming Troops
Naharnet/January 22/16/Army Commander General Jean Qahwaji is scheduled to travel to Washington early next month at the head of a delegation for talks with U.S. officials regarding military cooperation between the two countries, An Nahar daily reported on Friday. “The visit is set to take place between the first and third of February,” an unnamed source told the daily, adding: “The talks will review the military cooperation between the two countries including reinforcements to the Lebanese army, troops training and coordinating efforts in the fight against terrorism.” The visit comes following reports claiming that a one billion dollar Saudi grant that was approved in 2013 in the wake of the Arsal clashes between troops and jihadists has been halted by Riyadh. The grant would benefit the troops in strengthening its security. The last time Lebanon received military aid was in October 2015. The shipment provided the army with 50 “Hellfire” air-to-ground missiles and 560 artillery rounds, including some precision munitions. This represents $8.6 million worth of U.S. security assistance to Lebanon and boosts the army's ability to secure Lebanon’s borders against violent extremists.
Since 2004, America has provided over $1.3 billion dollars in security assistance to the Lebanese Armed Forces, including both training and equipment.

Rivalries Likely to Keep Baabda Palace Vacant
Naharnet/January 22/16/A parliamentary session set for the election of a new president next month will likely meet the fate of its predecessors despite the rapprochement between the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement. The February 8 session will most probably be boycotted by March 8 and 14 lawmakers over their fears that the results would not be in their favor, An Nahar daily said Friday. The newspaper quoted parliamentary sources as saying that if the session was held, then the votes for the most powerful candidates FPM founder MP Michel Aoun and Marada movement chief lawmaker Suleiman Franjieh will be very close. On Monday, LF chief Samir Geagea endorsed the candidacy of Aoun. His move came after al-Mustaqbal movement chief ex-PM Saad Hariri clinched a deal with Franjieh last year to back him for the presidency in return for Hariri to return to the Grand Serail. Despite Geagea's support for Aoun, Hariri is sticking to his decision to back Franjieh. Several parliamentary blocs announced their stance but others, including Hizbullah and the Kataeb, are yet to issue their positions. The country's top Christian post has been vacant since May 2014. Since then, more than 30 sessions that Speaker Nabih Berri has called for have been adjourned over lack of quorum.

U.S. Officials Warn against Prolonged Vacuum, Not Sure President will be Elected
Naharnet/January 22/16/U.S. officials have reiterated that Washington does not support a certain candidate for the Lebanese presidential elections, but warned that the prolonged vacuum does not fall in Lebanon's interest. The officials, who are involved in Mideast affairs, told An Nahar's Washington correspondent that they were not sure if the current focus of Lebanese officials on pushing the candidacies of Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun and Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh would lead to the election of a new president. One of the officials said that the U.S. stance has not changed. “We won't back a certain candidate and we remind everyone that the vacuum, if it continues, it won't be in Lebanon’s interest.”But the official stressed that candidates should “publicly commit to some principles such as (U.N.) Security Council resolutions linked to Lebanon, in addition to internal agreements, in particular, the Baabda Declaration and the policy of dissociation.”The Baabda Declaration, which was announced in 2012 following all-party talks held during the presidency of Michel Suleiman, calls for dissociating Lebanon from the regional crises, especially the conflict in Syria. The more then 20-month vacuum in the country's top Christian post has paralyzed the parliament and crippled the functions of the government. On Monday, Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea endorsed the candidacy of Aoun, his long-time rival, which prompted the majority of March 14 alliance officials to hold onto their support for Franjieh, and the Democratic Gathering bloc to continue its backing for MP Henri Helou. Such divisions will likely cause more vacuum at Baabda Palace as a result of lack of quorum at electoral sessions because Aoun is insisting on being a consensual candidate.

Italian Church Group in Lebanon to Open Refugee 'Humanitarian Corridor'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 22/16/An Italian ecumenical mission is in Lebanon this week to work out the final details of a pilot project to bring up to 1,000 refugees to Italy on humanitarian visas so they're not tempted to risk deadly sea crossings to get to Europe. The U.N. refugee agency has welcomed the initiative, one of many types of private sponsorships that are enabling particularly vulnerable or needy refugees to reach safety and start new lives in third countries.
In this case, the Federation of Protestant Churches in Italy and the Rome-based Catholic Sant'Egidio Community teamed up to ask the Italian government to grant 1,000 humanitarian visas for refugees in camps in Lebanon, Morocco and Ethiopia. The aim is to airlift an initial group of about 100 of the most vulnerable refugees —most of them Syrians who are sick, disabled or elderly, or women alone with young children — from a Lebanese camp by the end of the month or early February, said Marco Impagliazzo, president of the Sant'Egidio Community.
"It's an exemplary agreement to avoid the 'voyages of death' and exploitation by traffickers," Impagliazzo said in a phone interview. He added that he hoped Italy would offer more such visas, noting that "vulnerable" people can encompass many refugees today, and that other European countries follow suit.
While the organizers of the initiative are Christian, the candidates for transfer include both Christians and Muslims, organizers said. Once in Italy, the refugees will begin the asylum process and will be provided with housing, health care, educational and vocational services. The 1.3 million euro ($1.42 million) project is being largely financed by the Waldensian evangelical church, one of the religious groups that Italian taxpayers can select to receive a small percentage of their federal income taxes. Sant'Egidio is kicking in the rest, Impagliazzo said.
The project calls for aid groups on the ground to help identify potential candidates who are then brought to the Italian Consulate in Beirut for fingerprinting. Once the Italians have conducted the required security checks, the consulate then processes the visas, and the first "humanitarian corridor" will open, with the refugees taking a commercial flight to Italy, Impagliazzo said. The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees has long called for European countries, in particular, to facilitate legal immigration channels to discourage would-be refugees from turning to smugglers to get them to Europe. "We are very, very positive and we hope that more countries will decide to follow these examples," said Carlotta Sami, spokeswoman for UNHCR in southern Europe. She noted that such private sponsorship initiatives, which are already in place in countries such as Germany, Canada, and Brazil, can often take much less time than official bilateral resettlement programs. Those programs often require more than a year of diplomatic back-and-forth between governments before a refugee can be relocated. "Only these kinds of programs can represent an incentive to not go to a human trafficker," she said.

Hezbollah after the sanctions
Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon/January 22/16
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/reportsfeatures/566519-hezbollah-after-the-sanctions
Almost exactly one year ago, reports began emerging that Hezbollah had been forced to cut back on a range of expenditures in light of unprecedented financial troubles. Driving this austerity program, the reports said, were three fundamental strains on the economy of Iran, the Party’s chief sponsor and patron: expanding military activity, whether direct or by proxy, across the Middle East; a nosediving oil price; and severe international sanctions imposed for Tehran’s alleged pursuit of nuclear weaponry.
Today, oil may have tanked even further to a thirteen-year-low of $27 per barrel, and the Islamic Republic may not have scaled back any of its ambitions in the region (or beyond), but on the third front, it has just been thrown a very substantial lifeline. Saturday marked the so-called ‘Implementation Day’ of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the Iran Deal, putting into motion the lifting of almost all sanctions on Tehran, thereby freeing tens of billions of dollars of frozen Iranian funds and, potentially more importantly, opening up the Iranian economy to a future of lucrative business in European and other global markets.Few doubt that this financial windfall for Iran will swell the coffers of its regional paramilitary subsidiaries, including Hezbollah. US President Barack Obama himself has admitted as much, saying in July, “Do we think that with the sanctions coming down, that Iran will have some additional resources for its military and for some of the activities in the region that are a threat to us and a threat to our allies? I think that is a likelihood […] They are currently supporting Hezbollah […] so can they potentially try to get more assistance there? Yes.”
While it’s impossible at this stage to know exactly how much Hezbollah stands to receive, and for what specific purpose – the Iranian leadership itself may not even have decided yet – still there are certain bases on which educated guesses may be made.
Buying back support
When the Party’s financial straits first came to light last year, they were most manifest in the spheres of socioeconomic provisions to the broader base of supporters and low-ranking members, as opposed to the military and other essential activities of its operational core. Reductions were made in things like stipends to non-Party political allies, medical benefits for relatives of fighters, and salaries for employees of Party-affiliated companies. Accordingly, the expectation of analysts with whom NOW spoke was that it would be in these same areas that the bulk of any newly-arriving money from Iran would be spent first.
“I would think that the priority would be on bolstering the social welfare networks, salaries, payments to families of martyrs, the hospitals, the schools, that kind of thing,” said Nicholas Blanford, author of Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah’s Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel and a NOW contributor.
While these may appear of lesser significance than the direct military effort, they are in fact of essential importance in maintaining the political sympathies of the Party’s mostly Shiite Muslim constituency, said Blanford – not least at a time when high casualty rates from the war in Syria have stirred malcontent at the grassroots level. One recent report claimed to quote the wife of a gravely wounded Hezbollah fighter, complaining bitterly: “A misery afflicts the Shia; it used to come from Israel, now it comes from Syria […] I want to understand, are the people of the South destined [permanently] for subjugation and tears and grief? What’s our relation to Syria? We have enough [problems] already. The Prophet Muhammad went to Syria and returned, but Sayyid Hassan [Nasrallah] sent us there and kept us there in torment!”
“One of the important things is that the conflict in Syria is putting strains on the support base,” Blanford told NOW. “Whilst they continue to broadly support Hezbollah’s aspirations and goals in Syria, nonetheless this is a war that is dragging on, with no end in sight, and the body bags continue to come back. Money in terms of compensation and financial assistance can go some way to maintaining that grassroots support for the Party and for its activities in Syria.”All of which is not to say the Party would necessarily direct the entirety of any cash bonus on strictly civilian endeavors. Washington Institute analyst Dr. Matthew Levitt, author of Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon’s Party of God, wrote in September that, “A newly enriched Hezbollah would be more aggressive at home and abroad, challenging less-militant parties across the Lebanese political spectrum and boosting its destabilizing activities outside of Lebanon.”
A countermove?
At the same time as the international community, at the US’ initiative, is lifting sanctions on Iran, Washington is nonetheless pressing them down tighter than ever on Hezbollah specifically. As NOW reported last month, on 18 December President Obama signed into law the Hezbollah International Financing Prevention Act, imposing “the toughest American sanctions yet on Hezbollah, any organization or individual affiliated with it, and any financial institution anywhere in the world that ‘knowingly facilitates a transaction’ for them.” Less than a month later, on 7 January, the Act was put to its first use when the US Treasury Department sanctioned a Lebanese national, Ali Youssef Charara, for allegedly financing the Party via his Lebanon-based telecommunications company. The case of Charara illustrates how continuing US sanctions on Hezbollah may to some extent counteract the Party’s gains from a wealthier Iran, according to Lebanese analyst Ali al-Amin. Charara was an example, said Amin, of a class of businesspeople who worked with Hezbollah not, or not only, out of Party loyalty, but also simply to turn a profit.
“Some businessmen deal with Hezbollah economically not for love of the Party, but […] to achieve their own interests,” Amin told NOW. “But with the risks such sanctions will create, these businessmen will have no choice but to sever their financial relations with the Party.” Blanford agreed that sanctions were liable to disrupt Hezbollah’s income to a certain extent. “Hezbollah is so big now, such a huge organization with multiple revenue streams from all over the world, that one would imagine some of these revenue streams are going to end up being vulnerable to being closed off by the Americans and whomever else,” he told NOW.
At the same time, however, the Party’s expansion over the decades has made it that much harder to target all of its pecuniary supply routes, Blanford added.
“They don’t rely solely on Iranian funds [anymore],” he said. “Now they’ve got their own income generating, here and around the world.”
“Basically, they’ve diversified their portfolio.”
**Amin Nasr contributed reporting.

Aoun-Geagea new alliance/Political ploys gather pace in Lebanon
Martin Jay/http://www.dw.com/January 22/16
http://www.dw.com/en/political-ploys-gather-pace-in-lebanon/a-18996610
The Lebanese are known for their sense of drama, but not irony. Yet there is more to Samir Geagea’s move than meets the eye. Michel Aoun’s presidential bid is far from secure, as Martin Jay reports from Beirut.
Tensions in Lebanon, linked directly to the war in neighboring Syria, could be dramatically eased due to a radical change of heart from one of the nation's key presidential candidates, who has decided to pull out of the race to support his nemesis.
At first sight, the move is seen as a considerable victory for Syria's President Bashar al-Assad and a set back for the Saudis whose influence appears to be fading.
Lebanon has been in a state of political paralysis for over 18 months when a candidate with a lucid majority of support could not be found, in a system which requires a 2/3 turnout from its parliament. Two aging warlords, General Michel Aoun and Dr Samir Geagea - both Christians with controversial backgrounds from Lebanon's civil war (1975 to 1990) - locked horns in May of 2014 in a political battle which saw the parliament convene 35 times without electing either candidate.
Political thunderbolt
Yet this week, where storms pounded this tiny country perched on the edge of the Arab Peninsula, a thunderbolt shook the political establishment and a weary electorate who were getting used to the failed state and the country slipping to new lows of desperation.
group of protesters copyright: Juliane Metzker
The Lebanese people are hoping that the latest developments will lead out of the impasse
Geagea, apparently irked by his political master, Saad Hariri - who nominated another candidate for the post of president - did a U-turn and backed his own arch enemy, Aoun, an elderly and perhaps craven figure who many Lebanese remember for running to the French embassy in Beirut once the Syrians attacked his own army in 1989 and for remaining in France for seven years before returning to Lebanon.
Aoun was one of the strongest opponents of the Saudi-brokered Taif agreement, which ended Lebanon's civil war and gave Syria extraordinary powers in Lebanon. Yet these days, Syria's Assad is more of a friend than a foe with the 82-year-old former prime minister and, if elected, Aoun will officially make Lebanon an Iranian satellite, which many believe could usher in a period of calm.
Fragile Lebanon is at the center of a geopolitical tug of war between Iran and Saudi Arabia and, although small, is considered by both regional powers to be an important jewel in their crowns. Both Aoun and Geagea share many views on Lebanon but both are divided on which muslim groups they align themselves with - and which regional super powers - which raises more questions as to which direction Aoun - considered as Hezbollah's man - would take.
Political divide
However, Geagea is so staunchly against the Shiite movement (Iran's proxy army which fights alongside Assad's regime forces in Syria), it has stunned most in Lebanon, with many hardly able to believe the news.
In an interview in 2014, Geagea repeatedly drove home the point that Hezbollah needs not only to be disarmed in Lebanon but needs to get its troops out of Syria - the latter involvement seen by many as the root cause of all of Lebanon's ailments.
What could have turned Gaegae, whose recalcitrance toward Hezbollah, is so widely known? And what's the trade off?
Regional meddling is at the heart of this latest move. Geagea has not even remotely abandoned his Saudi support, but merely orchestrated a new tactic which is backed by Saudi Arabia's deputy prime minister Mohamed Bin Nayef, who analysts claim is jockeying for power over Lebanon with the kingdom's new minister of defence, Muhammad Bin Salman. The latter is close to Saad Hariri - who is the leader of Lebanon's March 14 opposition block which Geagea is aligned to - and who in December proposed Geagea's Christian foe Suleiman Frangieh as presidential candidate, a move which would have also installed Hariri as prime minister.
Many claim that Aoun now has a clear run to the presidency. But cynical observers believe that Geagea's latest move to support him is a devious ploy to actually eliminate him. "Frangieh as president would give KSA [Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - the ed.] an upper hand for the next six years…however Hariri didn't have the courtesy to inform his ally Geagea, who is sensitive to Frangieh due to a long lasting hostility dating back to the civil war and the same Christian area they both compete over in Northern Lebanon," the respected academic and author Dr Jamal Wakim of the Lebanese University told DW.
Geagea's motives are being scrutinized
"So Geagea made another move, supported by Bin Nayef, to nominate Aoun, knowing he could never become president," said Wakim, who believes that a two-horse race with Aoun and Frangieh will conclude with the latter the eventual winner. Indeed, contrary to media hype, Aoun still has a lot of ground to cover to secure the 2/3 majority in the parliament. Even his own supporters candidly admit it.
"If we are talking numbers, it's not enough," member of parliament Ziad al-Aswad told DW. "But if elected, his first priority will be to resume the full sovereignty of the state as people in Lebanon have no respect for it or the constitution - plus a new agreement between the communities to stop confrontation between religious groups."
But there's a long road ahead for Aoun. For those who know Geagea, many find it inconceivable that he could give such enfettered support for the Hezbollah camp. Indeed, his entire political forte has been forged on his uncompromising stand on Hezbollah.
"Of course [Hezbollah] must be removed from the Syrian war. There are some things which we need to take a clear stand about. Hezbollah should not remain in Syria," he told DW in an interview in 2014. "We cannot afford to have an illegal paramilitary organization within the state. We cannot afford to keep these strategic military decisions outside the state."
DW recommends

Lebanon’s Government Is Destroying A Phoenician Beach In Adloun To Build A Port
About 15 minutes south of Saida is a small coastal Lebanese town in the South called Adloun. Most of us hadn’t heard of it before, but it’s actually one of the longest inhabited areas in our country with evidence pointing to human activity there around 70,000BC; it’s a little town filled with prehistoric caves and Phoenician ruins.And those are not even what make it special. Being a coastal town, Adloun has one of the few remaining beaches in the area that have not been privatized yet, and is now being actively destroyed by Lebanon’s government.
According to this study, the governmental project will affect the following areas of the beach:
And, because that is not enough, our government will also do a little of land reclamation, effectively killing off one of the last remaining habitats for sea turtles in Lebanon, as well as affecting the ecology of the entire area with its diverse plants. What is this governmental project that our government has been hell-bent for years to do, and are currently doing as you can see by the following pictures? They are building a port that is bigger than that of Saida and Sour, in a town that houses far less people, none of whom are fishermen who operate boats in the first place. So what will the purpose of that port be? It’s going to be turned into a “touristic” yacht docking site for those who can afford yachts in the first place and who want to come to the area for visits. The town’s mayor says that is not the case. What is true, however, is that the port is officially named after “Nabih Berri.” Maybe our speaker of parliament wants a place closer to home to dock his boat?As it is with Lebanon, the project is also riddled with corruption. The bidding process for the project was canceled once because the initial prices were deemed unacceptable before finally hiring Khoury Contracting at a fee around 1.66 million dollars higher than the one they offered in the initial bidding. I guess the ministry in question felt generous?
On January 15th, 2016, Khoury Contracting sent its bulldozers to the beach and started work without prior notification. They’re currently establishing access to the beach by digging up a road for more bulldozers to come and finish what’s already started. Who Cares About Sea Turtles And Phoenician Stuff Anyway? Good job Lebanon’s government. Those sea turtles can always find another country to go and become unwanted pests in. Those plants? Who needs them. It’s not like ecology or the environment matter anyway. Phoenicia? Do we really want some Lebanese to further cling to that unwanted part of our history?
Keeping a free beach for the people of the area to visit? Who’d want that as well, bring in the money!
Let them destroy the beach. Let them destroy everything as they’ve done to the country for years now. They’ve actively destroyed countless similar sites before, why not this one too? It’s not like anything is relevant when you have the prospects of a port named after a politician!
Let them destroy the beach. It’s better for that beach and for that heritage not to see how abysmal the country our ancestors called home has become à la famous saying: عين لا ترى، قلب لا يوجع.
For a government that has shown repeatedly how apt it is at failing, it should come as no wonder that they’d not only do such a thing but also make sure that it passes by unnoticed.
For a government and people that went up in a fit about the destruction of heritage at the hands of ISIS in Syria and Iraq, how is this any difference? Or does our own history not matter enough because it’s not called Palmyra?
There has been no back to back coverage for Adloun’s heritage. Is it not juicy enough for Lebanon’s media because it cannot be spun into attractive بالصور and بالفيديو headlines?
Among the many travesties taking place in the country today, this is a massacre of heritage and environment. The sad part is? It’s too late to do anything now.
Say bye to the turtles; say bye to that ancient site. They were present in a country that didn’t deserve them anyway.

Israel warms to Sunni powers, questions US' Palestinian focus
Paul Alster Published /FoxNews.com/January 21/16
While the U.S. is pressing Israel to make peace with Palestinian leaders, it is missing the much bigger story of the Jewish State improving relations with several Muslim nations in the Middle East, according to a top Israeli official.
Outlining the fast-developing relationship between Israel and other Sunni states in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey, the official went beyond earlier comments by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and expressed Israel’s dismay at U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
“We have the chance now to make a coalition with Saudi Arabia, North African states, the Gulf States, and Turkey,” Ayoob Kara, Israel’s deputy minister for regional cooperation, told FoxNews.com. “We need the U.S. with us, but … they first want the Palestinians to become partners with Israel. We could be waiting another 50 years. Why do we have to wait?”
“I think we now have the chance to open a new relationship with what is referred to as the Saudi [Sunni] coalition.”
The force driving Israel and Sunni Muslim nations together is Iran, the Shia Muslim power that constantly reiterates its official goal of wiping Israel off the map. Israel has long been wary of Iran, and the recently implemented nuclear inspection deal that dropped international sanctions and freed up more than $100 billion in assets for Tehran has given its Sunni adversaries cause for concern.
Ayoob Kara, Israel’s deputy minister for regional cooperation, believes a new Middle East coalition is forming, and the US is on the sidelines. (Reuters)
Kara, Israel’s most senior Druze politician and a member of the Likud-led coalition government, spoke even as Netanyahu was meeting world leaders, including U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland. Kara blasted the nuclear deal championed by the Obama administration as well as the White House’s focus on settling the Palestinian issue ahead of arguably more pressing regional concerns.
Harmony between Israel and regional Muslim powers could “encourage the Palestinians to stop the violence [and] stop the terror,” he said, as well as aligning key players against ISIS and other terror groups.
U.S. support for the Iran deal is viewed by many states in the region as likely to usher in further destabilization as Tehran, flush with cash, continues its sponsorship of regional terrorist organizations. Even while nuclear negotiations were ongoing, Iran stepped up its expansionist forays into Iraq, Yemen, and Syria. In response, it appears that countries that once had little or no dialogue with Israel – official or unofficial – are now, according to Kara, rushing to engage with the Jewish state.
“Over the last month I have received many messages from Arab states that they need a closer connection to Israel,” Kara said. “In the past this was not the case.
“I think we now have the chance to open a new relationship with what is referred to as the Saudi [Sunni] coalition,” he added. “We have a chance to change the region, and we have economic, security, and other [mutual interests].Their enemy is our enemy, and I think much can be done on this issue.”
Earlier Thursday, Netanyahu hailed what he called Saudi Arabia’s change of heart over Israel.
"Saudi Arabia recognizes that Israel is an ally rather than an enemy because of the two principle threats that threaten them, Iran and Daesh [ISIS]," Netanyahu stated in a television interview. “Obviously Israel and the Sunni Arab states are not on opposite sides. There is a great shift taking place.”
Regional observers have noted that a potential deal or understanding with Saudi Arabia could offer the possibility of Israel using Saudi Arabian airspace as a direct line to attack Iran - should it ever be deemed necessary. This would be a major boost to Israeli military options and give serious pause to Tehran should the hardline regime renege on its pledge not to pursue nuclear weapons.
Although there has been no official comment from Saudi leader King Salman on the Israel issue, there have been encouraging signs from some in the Saudi hierarchy.
“Wherever the Iranians are present, they create militias,” Brig. Gen Ahmed al Aseer, a Saudi military spokesman said in September. “In Lebanon, they have created Hezbollah, which is blocking the political process and has conducted wars against Israelis, destroying Lebanon as a result. And in Yemen, they have created the Houthis.”
In a poll of members of the Saudi Arabian public conducted jointly in June last year by Israel’s Interdisciplinary Center and the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, only 18 percent said Israel was the country’s main adversary. Some 53 percent fingered Iran.
Turkey, with whom Israel has endured turbulent relations over recent years, has been more forthcoming in its desire to reinstate what was once a powerful regional alliance with Israel.
“President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the first time in many years declared last week that Turkey needs Israel as a friend in the region,” Turkish newspaper the Daily Sabah reported earlier this month. “Second, Erdoğan strengthened his country's alliance with Saudi Arabia by establishing a strategic partnership council between the two countries.”
That analysis of the potential for a new order in the region was echoed by Kara.
“I really believe we have a chance to make peace around us with all those in the region who oppose Iran,” he said.
***Paul Alster is an Israel-based journalist. Follow him on Twitter @paul_alster and visit his website: www.paulalster.com.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/01/21/israel-warms-to-sunni-powers-questions-us-palestinian-focus.html?intcmp=hpbt1

Michel Samaha, a stranger in his homeland
Nayla Tueni/Al Arabyia/January 22/16
Lebanese ex-minister Michel Samaha, who was recently released from jail, is a murderer who betrayed his country and people to serve the criminal Syrian regime. Releasing him before serving his full sentence of four and a half years does not exonerate him or restore his dignity. His statement that he will return to politics is just arrogance, which he has always been known for. He cannot do so because he now has a criminal record. As such, the Syrian regime and Samaha’s domestic allies no longer need him. Take the case of Fayez Karam, the former Lebanese army officer, politician and Free Patriotic Movement member who was convicted of passing information to Israel. Following his release from prison, Karam was excluded from politics and his movement’s leader no longer received him.
Unwelcome
Samaha has no place in Lebanon, let alone in politics. He has no place in Ashrafieh - the area where he lives, and where Bashir Gemayel, Gebran Tueni and other Lebanese martyrs were born - unless he stays home and does not speak with his neighbors. People in Ashrafieh are ashamed to shake his hand, and his neighbors hope he leaves. They also fear his criminality. A priest sprinkled holy water in his house to expel evil spirits, without expelling Samaha himself. Politically, he has no place in the Christian community as most of its politicians are moral and patriotic in their public affairs. Whether Samaha returns to jail or not, he has become a prisoner of his thoughts, criminality and betrayal. He is a prisoner of his own people, neighborhood and homeland. If some figures want to defend him, let them buy him an apartment closer to them. Defending him and insulting critics of the decision to release him is nothing more than useless politicking.

Was Beirut airport threat real or political conspiracy?
Jean Aziz/Al-Monitor/January 22/16
In mid-January, Beirut was preoccupied with news about potential security incidents or disturbances in Lebanon. While there was no noteworthy incident to report, insinuations continued to circulate in the media and among politicians and diplomats, suggesting the matter could be political. What's the truth behind the rumors? It all started Jan. 13 with leaks to the media that there were lapses in security measures and inadequate equipment at Beirut's Rafiq Hariri International Airport. The news circulated that Lebanon is still on the EU air safety blacklist, though there is no official list. Al-Monitor communicated on the same day with Public Works and Transport Minister Ghazi Zeaiter, whose ministry supervises the airport’s operations. Al-Monitor also contacted the airport’s aviation management officers. Zeaiter told Al-Monitor that he planned to hold a press conference at the airport to respond to the allegations, which he said were false. However, speaking to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, a senior official at the Directorate General of Civil Aviation confirmed having information that at least two European airlines, Air France and British Airways, received warnings from reliable sources that their flights to the Beirut airport might be subject to a terrorist act. According to the official’s information, airline officials expressed their concerns over these warnings to the Lebanese government and insisted that the airport implement maximum security measures.
Zeaiter said at his Jan. 16 press conference that the Beirut airport is not blacklisted and that any lapses in the work of the General Directorate of Civil Aviation had been handled. Surprisingly, while Zeaiter was trying to reassure the public, Environment Minister Wiam Wahhab tweeted on the same day, “Is it true that an attack by the Islamic State against an Air France plane was uncovered at the Beirut airport?”
This shocking tweet required an immediate response by the Lebanese Interior Ministry, which a few hours later issued an official statement denying knowledge of any planned terrorist act against any scheduled flight to or from the Beirut airport. The same statement pointed out that airport security has been under scrutiny by foreign companies operating there, and their concerns have been resolved. Wahhab replied to the Interior Ministry’s statement in another tweet: “The operation was scheduled to be carried out on Jan. 8, similarly to the attack against the Russian jet. It was revealed by US agencies, which informed the French.”Later that day, he added, “The airport was not infiltrated, but the operation was uncovered during the preparation phase.”As Wahhab noted that US security disclosed the information, eyes turned to a Jan. 15 visit made by Richard Jones, the US interim chief of mission, to Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil. Following the visit, Jones was asked by journalists at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs if he was concerned over Lebanon’s security situation. He replied, “Unfortunately, we have concerns over the situation in almost all of the world's countries at present. We have lately witnessed the tragic incident in Jakarta on Jan. 14; a similar incident occurred in Burj el-Barajneh in Lebanon on Nov. 12, 2015, as well as the attacks in Paris on Nov. 13, 2015, and in other countries. We have always had security concerns. Yet we are sure that active cooperation with Lebanon is to the advantage of the Lebanese people, the Americans and foreigners residing in Lebanon.”
This statement seems to intersect with the information referred to by Wahhab. Yet Bassil told Al-Monitor he did not discuss the security situation with Jones during his visit. Al-Monitor spoke with Wahhab by phone to learn about his source and its credibility. He attributed his information to “official security sources that are directly concerned” with the information he revealed, and added, “These sources and information are highly credible and reliable.” Wahhab further stated that his information was confirmed by the Interior Ministry replying to his first tweet, which came in the form of a question. He added that when he revealed in his second tweet that the terrorist act under discussion had been uncovered during the preparation phase and that it had been planned for Jan. 8, the Interior Ministry did not reply. Among the Lebanese public, some link the rumors with the ongoing political crisis since the president's office was left vacant on May 24, 2014. Some people think that a bombing could have been planned in Beirut to force a breakthrough in the impasse. A significant security breach would require Lebanon to go along with foreign efforts to improve overall security through a comprehensive settlement that includes the election of a new president. In 1988, there was another presidential vacuum that only ended after a two-year war among the Lebanese themselves, and between the Lebanese and the Syrians. In 2007, another presidential vacancy ended after military incidents between the Sunnis and Shiites in Beirut broke out in May 2008. This history is enough to make some Lebanese people fear that military methods might be used to end the current presidential vacuum. They fear a conspiracy could be designed to engineer the security scares needed to reach a presidential solution.

Iran’s Soleimani makes public appearance
Albin Szakola/Now Lebanon/January 22/16
BEIRUT – Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani reportedly delivered a speech at a ceremony Thursday, his first public appearance since rumors began circulating two months that he had been wounded in Syria.
Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reported Friday morning that Soleimani attended the memorial in Sirjan to commemorate the anniversary of Mohammad Ali Allahdadi's death, a Quds Force general killed in Israel’s January 18, 2015 airstrike in Syria’s Quneitra.
Fars quoted one-line from Soleimani’s speech in which he honored “thousands upon thousands of defenders of the Shrine of Sayyeda Zeinab” in southern Damascus, a reference to Shiites killed fighting in Syria. Other outlets also covered Soleimani’s appearance, providing longer texts of his speech in honor of the late IRGC officer. Meanwhile, the local Sirjan News Agency published a photo report on the occasion which included a number of pictures purportedly showing Soleimani attending the ceremony.
The IRGC Quds Force commander has not appeared in a confirmable video or photo since mid-November 2015, amid reports he had been injured in southern Aleppo. Soleimani had previously failed to make a scheduled public appearance at a Student Day ceremony in Tehran’s prestigious Shahid Beheshti University on December 7, 2015.
Rumors have swirled that Soleimani was injured November while touring the battlefront in southern Aleppo, where IRGC forces and Iraqi militiamen are engaged in fierce battles with rebel fighters. Iranian authorities, for their part, had strenuously denied rumors Soleimani was hurt, but prior to Thursday’s ceremony in Sirjan, the elusive military chief had not made any confirmed public appearances.
AFP on November 25 reported that the Quds Force commander had been injured in the ongoing fighting in Syria. A Syrian security source told the news agency he had been injured in southwest Aleppo, while Syrian Observatory for Human Rights director Rami Abdel Rahman claimed Soleimani had been “lightly injured three days ago in the Al-Eis area in the south of Aleppo province.”
Meanwhile, the National Council of Resistance of Iran—which vociferously opposes the clerical government in Tehran—said on November 29 that Soleimani “has suffered severe shrapnel wounds, including in the head, while at Aleppo’s southern front two weeks ago.”“Qassem Soleimani’s vehicle that was there for him to oversee an operation by the revolutionary guards and a number of hired forces was targeted by the Free Syrian Army severely injuring Soleimani.”The NRC-I added that Soleimani had been rushed to Damascus for an initial round of treatment, before being transported to Tehran, where he is now in an intensive care unit.
**Ullin Hope translated the Arabic-language source material.

Syrian president’s cousin sentenced for killing officer: pro-regime media
Albin Szakola & Ullin Hope/Now Lebanon/January 22/16
BEIRUT – Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's second cousin has been sentenced to prison for the killing of a colonel during a road rage incident in the coastal city of Latakia, according to pro-regime media.
Mulhak news reported Thursday evening that Syria's judiciary passed down a 20-year prison sentence to Suleiman Assad, the son of Hilal al-Assad, a prominent National Defense Force commander who died in fighting in March 2014. Although Syrian state media has yet to cover the sentence, the news spread quickly across pro-regime social media, with some commenters saying he had been found guilty of manslaughter, and not murder. Popular pro-Syrian regime Facebook pages based in Latakia hailed the verdict, although some readers questioned whether justice had been properly meted out for Assad's killing of Air Force colonel Hassan al-Sheikh on August 6.
"The case of the martyr and engineer Colonel Hassan al-Sheikh ended today, January 21, with a ruling against the criminal Suleiman Hilal al-Assad for a twenty-year prison sentence," the Syrian Coast News Network Facebook page reported. "Which hotel will he pass his sentence in?" one commentator, Zuheir Ajam, asked sarcastically. The brazen nature of Suleiman al-Assad's crime sparked popular anger in Latakia—which is a redoubt of support for the Assad family—with over 1000 residents holding a vigil on August 8 for the murdered officer and calling for Suleiman al-Assad's execution.
Days later, the Syrian regime announced it had arrested Suleiman al-Assad amid mounting anger over his crimes. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, in turn, also reported that the wanted man had been caught on a road between the Assad family's hometown of Qardaha and Latakia. Since his arrest, numerous unconfirmed reports have emerged that Suleiman al-Assad was released, and potentially was involved in the killing of two other people, one a journalist and the other an engineer who led the Latakia protest against him.

Kremlin denies report Putin envoy asked Syria's Assad to step down
Reuters/January 22/16
The Kremlin on Friday rejected a media report that an envoy for Russian President Vladimir Putin asked Syrian President Bashar Assad to step down last year, the Tass news agency reported. "No, it's not so," Tass quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying. The Financial Times had earlier reported that the head of Russia's GRU military intelligence agency traveled to Damascus at the end of last year to ask Assad to step down only to be angrily rebuffed. Assad’s role in a post-war Syria has been a major bone of contention that has stalled efforts to bring the fighting – which is believed to have claimed the lives of over 300,000 while displacing millions of others – to an end. With the five-year-old Syrian war showing no signs of ending, it looks increasingly uncertain that peace talks will begin as planned on Jan. 25 in Geneva, partly because of a dispute over the composition of the opposition delegation.
Peace efforts face huge underlying challenges, among them disagreements over Assad's future and tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The Syrian government has said it is ready to take part in the Geneva talks on time. The office of UN envoy Staffan de Mistura said he was still aiming "at rolling out the talks" on Jan. 25, and would be "assessing progress over the weekend.” The Saudi-backed Syrian opposition ruled out even indirect negotiations with Damascus before steps including a halt to Russian air strikes, contradicting US Secretary of State John Kerry's insistence that talks will begin next week. Russia said the talks could be delayed until Jan. 27 or 28 because of the disagreement over who would represent the opposition. George Sabra, a senior opposition official, said the obstacles to the talks were still there, reiterating demands for the lifting of blockades on populated areas and the release of detainees, measures set out in a Dec. 18 Security Council resolution that endorsed the peace process.
"There must be a halt to the bombardment of civilians by Russian planes, and sieges of blockaded areas must be lifted," said Sabra, who was this week named as a senior member of the opposition delegation to any talks. "The form of the talks does not concern us, but the conditions must be appropriate for the negotiations," he told Reuters.
Sabra's opposition council, the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), was formed in Saudi Arabia last month. It groups Assad's political and armed opponents, including rebel factions fighting Damascus in western Syria. The west is the main theater of the war between rebels and Damascus, whose military position has been bolstered since September by Russian warplanes and Iranian ground forces. Russian warplanes continued to bomb many parts of western and northern Syria on Friday, particularly Latakia province, where the government is pressing an offensive against rebels, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported. Pro-government forces captured a dam 10 km (6 miles) from the town of Salma, seized last week in one of the most significant gains since Russia intervened. "They've tightened their stranglehold on (rebel) fighters in the Latakia countryside," Observatory director Rami Abdulrahman said.
While rebels have received military support from Assad's foreign enemies, states including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar and the United States, their calls for more effective weapons including anti-aircraft missiles have gone unanswered. One of the biggest rebel factions in the HNC, Jaysh al-Islam, said the opposition was facing "many pressures" to make concessions but credited Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar for helping it to "overcome these pressures".
The lead negotiator picked by the HNC for the hoped-for negotiations is a Jaysh al-Islam member, another potential complication facing the talks because Russia says it is a terrorist group. HNC chair Riad Hijab is due to meet Kerry on Saturday and "all the matters will be tabled clearly", Sabra said.
Russia views the HNC as a Saudi attempt to dictate who represents the opposition. The HNC has said it will not join any negotiations if a third party attends, rejecting Russia's bid to expand the opposition delegation to include the Kurdish PYD and others. The Kurds control vast areas of northern and northeastern Syria where they have set up an autonomous administration which they say should be a model for settling the Syrian conflict. The opposition accuses the Kurds of cooperating with Damascus, a charge they deny. One opposition official said on Thursday the Kurds should attend on the government side. Syrian Kurdish leader Saleh Muslim told Reuters that the Syrian Kurds must be represented at peace talks or they will fail. He also accused Jaysh al-Islam of fostering the "same mentality" as al Qaeda and Islamic State. "If there are some parties that are effective in this Syria issue who are not at the table, it will be the same as what happened in Geneva 2," Muslim, co-chair of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) told Reuters, referring to failed negotiations in 2014. Jaysh al-Islam last year backed away from hardline Islamist rhetoric heard from it earlier in the conflict, saying Syrians should be free to pick their form of government and Alawites were part of the Syrian nation.

Turkey Failing to Set Example on Media Rights, Says Biden
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 22/U.S. Vice President Joe Biden on Friday strongly criticized Turkey for failing to set the right "example" on freedom of expression, slamming the imprisonment of journalists and investigation of academics who criticized government policy. In a rebuke of rare vehemence for Washington's key NATO ally, Biden said Turkey's most recent record in freedom of expression under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is "not the kind of example that needs to be set". Speaking at a meeting with civil society representatives in Istanbul, Biden said the United States wanted to see Turkey set a "strong example" for the whole region of what a "vibrant democracy" means. "The more Turkey succeeds, the stronger the message sent to the entire Middle East and parts of the world who are only beginning to grapple with the notion of freedom," said Biden. But he lamented recent developments in Turkey, which have seen the imprisonment since November 26 of the Cumhuriyet daily editor-in-chief Can Dundar and its Ankara bureau chief Erdem Gul on charges of revealing classified information. Prosecutors have also launched a vast investigation into more than 1,200 academics who signed a petition criticizing the military crackdown in the Kurdish-dominated southeast. Some two dozen academics were detained for questioning and while all were released, they remain under investigation.
The government has also gained notoriety for ordering blocks on YouTube, Twitter and other social networks during times of crisis."When the media are intimidated or imprisoned for critical reporting, when Internet freedom is curtailed and social media sites like YouTube or Twitter are shut down, and more than 1,000 academics are accused of treason simply by signing a petition, that's not the kind of example that needs to be set," said Biden. He added: "If you do not have the ability to express your own opinion to criticize policy... then your country is being robbed of opportunity."The six civil society representatives that Biden met in the talks included several prominent journalists who are known to be critical of Erdogan. In a separate encounter, Biden also met the wife and son of the imprisoned Cumhuriyet editor Can Dundar. "He (Biden) told me that I had a very brave father. He told me I had to be proud of him," the son, Ege Dundar, was quoted as saying by the Cihan news agency after the meeting.
The U.S. vice president, who arrived in Istanbul on Thursday night, is due to meet Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu for critical talks on Saturday. Erdogan has in the past reacted with fury to American criticism of Turkey's rights record. Also on Friday, Biden paid his respects amid tight security at the site of of the January 12 suicide bombing blamed on Islamist jihadists in the historic Sultanahmet district of Istanbul that killed 10 German tourists. The U.S. ambassador to Ankara John Bass had already raised hackles among government supporters by saying that the investigation against the academics risked having a "chilling effect" on political discourse in the country. Ankara's controversial mayor Melih Gokcek, a member of Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), hit back at Bass by telling him to go home and saying he was "a wrong choice for the U.S. in Turkey." But Biden said he wanted to "make clear that the President (Barack Obama) and I stand by Ambassador Bass".

U.S. says troops ‘needed’ to retake ISIS-held cities
Reuters, Washington Friday, 22 January 2016/The U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) needs to take back the cities Mosul and Raqqa and will use "boots on the ground" as part of its strategy in doing so, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said on Friday. "We need to destroy them in those two places, and I'd like to get on with that as soon as possible," Carter, speaking from Davos, Switzerland, said in an interview on CNBC. He said the coalition is using raids and bombs to take control of the routes between the two cities and cut off communication between them."That'll essentially separate the Iraqi theater from the Syrian theater," he said. Carter said more ground soldiers will probably be added to support those already there, but part of the strategy is also mobilizing local forces "rather than trying to substitute for them."

China president starts Iran visit
AFP, Tehran Friday, 22 January 2016/Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived Friday in Iran on the third leg of a Middle East tour aimed at boosting economic ties with the region. State news agency IRNA said Xi, accompanied by three deputy premiers and six ministers as well as a high-ranking business delegation, was greeted at Tehran airport by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. The president, who has already visited Egypt and Saudi Arabia, was to meet Saturday with his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani and the Islamic republic’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khamenei, according to local media. Beijing is Tehran’s top customer for oil exports and trade between the two countries was worth $52 billion in 2014. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ebrahim Rahimpour has told state television that 16 accords including a strategic cooperation agreement are to be signed during Xi’s visit.

Many Iraqis abandon Finnish asylum process to return home
AFP, Helsinki Friday, 22 January 2016/Nearly 70 percent of Iraqi asylum seekers in Finland whose applications were processed last year have abandoned their claims, with many returning home instead, officials said Friday. Statistics from the Nordic country’s immigration service revealed Finland processed 3,700 Iraqi asylum seeker decisions in 2015 and nearly 2,600 of the decisions were “expired,” meaning the applicants had either cancelled the process or disappeared. They have told us that family issues in their home country force them to go back. Some have found the Finnish atmosphere hostile and some have not stayed because of the dark autumn and cold winter,” said Juha Simila, head of asylum department at the Finnish Immigration Service. Simila said applicants were disillusioned by the processing time, which increased when the number of asylum seekers jumped from 3,650 in 2014, to 32,500 in 2015. Nearly 20,500 Iraqis applied for an asylum, but authorities were only able to give decisions to 3,700. One Iraqi who decided to return said Finland was different from what he had expected. “I don’t know what happens to me in Iraq but here I will die mentally,” Tareq Thajeel Ajaj from southern Iraq told Finland’s largest daily Helsingin Sanomat in December. In October Finland tightened its criteria for granting asylum to Iraqi migrants, after deciding the security situation had eased in certain regions.

Russian or Syrian air raids kill dozens in east
Reuters, Beirut Friday, 22 January 2016/At least 30 people were killed in air raids carried out by Russian or Syrian warplanes near the city of Deir al-Zor in eastern Syria on Friday, a group monitoring the war said. The strikes hit the town of Tabiyat Jazira, the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. The dead included more than a dozen children, it said. Russian jets have been bombing around Deir al-Zor as Syrian pro-government forces clash with Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) fighters, who control most of the province. The group has besieged remaining government-held areas of the city since last March, and last week launched new attacks.

Germany urges Kurdistan to keep better tabs on arms
AFP, Berlin Friday, 22 January 2016/Germany on Friday called on the government of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region to ensure that arms provided by Berlin were only used by Kurdish peshmerga fighting ISIS. German public broadcasters WDR and NDR reported earlier that weapons from the German military, including G3 assault rifles and various pistols, were spotted on sale in markets in northern Iraq. German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung said the arms might have been sold by former peshmerga fighters. “We have asked the representative of the (Kurdistan) regional government (in Germany) to come to the foreign ministry,” spokesman Martin Schaefer told reporters. “We expect the Kurdistan government and peshmerga officials to work with speed and determination to address these accusations,” he said. If such practices are confirmed, Schaefer added, “they must be stopped immediately and completely.”Following a long and anguished debate, Germany decided in August 2014 to arm the peshmerga in their struggle against ISIS fighters.

How soon can Iran take a deep breath after sanctions relief?
The Associated Press, Salma, Syria Friday, 22 January 2016/Pictures of Syrian President Bashar Assad hang on nearly every building in the town of Salma, which government troops captured last week in one of their most significant advances since Russia intervened militarily on their side.The Syrian government offensive has given Assad a stronger hand going into peace talks with the opposition that are planned for next week in Switzerland. The Russian military on Friday took Moscow-based reporters to see the town in Latakia province, which had been out of government control for more than three years. Most of the buildings bore visible signs of fighting, with holes in concrete walls gaping open and windows blown out.Government forces were able to capture the city “thanks to the support of the friendly Russian aviation,” Latakia Governor Ibrahim Khder al-Saalem said. “Our army will now press its offensive further.”
Since Russia launched its bombing campaign on Sept. 30, its warplanes have flown nearly 6,000 missions in support of the Syrian government troops. The airstrikes were ostensibly to target ISIS militants and other extremists, but they also have helped Assad push back rebels on several fronts and capture dozens of villages in the north and west. While Salma had been under rebel control since 2012, the government had continued to hold most of the rest of Latakia province, the heartland of Assad’s minority Alawite sect. Salma, a town of 10,000, sits on hills overlooking the Mediterranean coast, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) away. The governor said the militants who had held Salma burned 200 hectares (500 acres) of apple orchards and 300 hectares (750 acres) of forest around the city before retreating toward Turkey. The border with Turkey, a key supporter of rebels in the area, is only 12 kilometers (seven miles) away. On Friday, Syrian troops captured more areas from insurgents in Latakia province, including Kaluksi Mountain and several other villages, according to the state-run SANA news agency. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported heavy clashes in the mountains of Latakia province, saying that the Syrian army and pro-government forces were advancing in the area. Syria’s five-year civil war has killed a quarter of a million people, displaced half the country and enabled the radical ISIS group to seize a third of Syria’s territory.The talks planned for next week in Geneva are meant to start a political process to end the conflict, which started in 2011 as a largely peaceful uprising against Assad’s rule but escalated into an all-out war after a harsh state crackdown. The plan calls for cease-fires in parallel to the talks, a new constitution and elections in a year and a half.

Kerry: ‘extraordinary challenges’ lie ahead in the world
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Friday, 22 January 2016/U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Friday that “extraordinary opportunities” lie ahead and that the world is becoming a safer place despite threats. While the fight against extremism is “the challenge of our generation,” the world is “heading in the right direction,” the top diplomat said in a speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos. “In the end, mark my words, Daesh will be defeated, and the progress we have made towards that goal has been remarkable,” Kerry said, using an Arabic term for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militant group.“Daesh has already lost over 30 percent of the territory it once held and much of its financing, he added. Kerry said the last year’s nuclear deal signed between Iran and six world powers, including the U.S., had made the world a safer place. “We were on the cusp of confrontation, believe me… in all likelihood, without diplomacy [with Iran], it would have ended in war,” he added. Kerry told world leaders gathered in the Swiss town for the annual meeting that the world “is not witnessing global gridlock. “We are not frozen in an nightmare we cannot wake up from.. If we stay serious and work in good faith, then we can make progress.”Key steps have been taken to resolve the conflict in Syria, he added, saying that all of the involved countries have agreed on a list of principles for an ongoing peace process. “Nothing would do more to end the threat of Da’esh than to negotiate an end to the war in Syria,” said Kerry.

Iraqi PM expresses doubts that 3 Americans were kidnapped
AP, Baghdad Friday, 22 January 2016/Iraq’s prime minister has expressed doubts that the three Americans who went missing from a Baghdad neighborhood last week have been kidnapped. Haider al-Abadi says no demands have been made for the three and that they were most likely taken by “criminal gangs.” Al-Abadi spoke on Friday from Davos, Switzerland, where he is attending the World Economic Forum. Separately, Iraqi and Western security officials claimed two powerful Shiite militias - Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Saraya al-Salam - are the top suspects in the abduction. Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to reporters. The Iraqi government doesn’t “know that they (Americans) have been kidnapped. They are missing” and Iraqi security forces are searching for them, Abadi said. The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad has confirmed that an unspecified number of Americans are missing and said it's working with Iraqi authorities to locate them. Baghdad authorities said the Americans were kidnapped from a “suspicious apartment,” and provided no other details. There has been no claim of responsibility. Following the dramatic collapse of the Iraqi security forces in the summer of 2014, Shiite militias filled the vacuum, growing more powerful militarily than the country’s own security forces. They are some of the most effective forces on the ground combatting ISIS in Iraq, and also run security in many Baghdad neighborhoods. The Iraqi government-allied militias are now officially sanctioned and known as Popular Mobilization Committees.But many trace their roots to the armed groups that battled U.S. troops after the 2003 invasion and kidnapped and killed Sunnis at the height of Iraq’s sectarian bloodletting in 2006 and 2007. In the fight against IS, human rights groups have accused them of abuses targeting Sunni civilians - charges denied by militia leaders. Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Iranian-backed and one of the most powerful Shiite militias operating in Iraq, has repeatedly spoken out against the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq in the fight against ISIS. Saraya al-Salam is run by Iraq’s influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr whose Mahdi militia often battled with U.S. forces between 2003 and 2011. Since taking office in 2014 just months after Mosul fell to ISIS, Abadi has struggled to balance the growing power of Shiite militia groups with his government’s dependence on the U.S.-led coalition in the fight against ISIS.

Erdogan: Turkey won’t allow Syrian Kurdish PYD to west of Euphrates
Reuters, Istanbul Friday, 22 January 2016Turkey has not allowed and will not allow the Syrian Kurdish PYD, which is fighting Islamic State of Iraq and Syria but has links to the outlawed PKK militant group in Turkey, to cross west of the Euphrates river, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday. Speaking to reporters in Istanbul, Erdogan dismissed suggestions that fighters from the Kurdish militia had already crossed the river.“This is all gossip. We haven’t allowed it up until now. Even if there are partial movements, we won’t allow such a thing,” he said.

At Least 44 Migrants Dead as Boats Sink on Way to Greece
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 22/16/At least 44 people including 20 children have died after their boats sank on their way from Turkey to Greece on Friday, with dozens of other migrants reported missing, coastguard officials in Greece and Turkey said. The Greek coastguard said they had rescued 74 people after two boats ran into trouble off the Greek Aegean islands of Farmakonisi and Kalolimnos in the early hours. They recovered the bodies of 17 children, 17 women and 10 men. A search operation, backed by a helicopter from EU border agency Frontex, was under way for dozens of people still missing from the boat that capsized off Kalolimnos. Separately, the Turkish coastguard said they had found the bodies of three children on Friday after a third boat sank near the seaside resort of Didim, the Dogan news agency reported . People fleeing war and misery in the Middle East and elsewhere -- many of them Syrian refugees -- are still arriving from Turkey in flimsy boats in their thousands every day, despite the dangers and the harsh winter weather. At least 113 migrants have died in the Aegean already this year, according to the International Organization for Migration. The IOM estimates that some 37,000 migrants have reached Greece by sea so far this year, hoping to start new lives in Germany, Sweden and elsewhere in the European Union. On Thursday at least 12 migrants, including children, drowned off the Turkish coast as their boat tried to reach Greece. The Turkish coastguard rescued 28 people. Turkey, which is home to some 2.2 million refugees from Syria's civil war, has become a hub for migrants seeking to reach Europe, many of whom pay people smugglers thousands of dollars for the risky crossing. Ankara reached an agreement with the EU in November to stem the flow of refugees heading to Europe, in return for financial assistance. Brussels vowed to provide three billion euros ($3.3 billion) as well as political concessions to Ankara in return for its cooperation in tackling Europe's worst migrant crisis since World War II. German Chancellor Angela Merkel -- whose country took in 1.1 million asylum seekers in 2015 -- was set to meet Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Friday, with the migrant crisis top of the agenda. The outcome of the talks is not only important for Merkel, who faces intense pressure at home to impose a cap on Germany's refugee intake, but will also have resonance across Europe where public opinion is hardening against the record asylum seeker influx.

Tunisia Imposes Curfew after Worst Post-Revolt Unrest
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 22/16/Tunisia on Friday declared a nighttime curfew across the country after a wave of protests and clashes that constitute the most serious outbreak of social unrest since its 2011 revolution. Five years after the overthrow of longtime dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, street demonstrations against unemployment and poverty are again shaking the North African nation. Anger erupted over the death last Saturday of an unemployed young man who was electrocuted when he climbed an electricity pole while demonstrating in central Tunisia. The unrest has spread around the country including to Tunis where shops were burnt and looted in one suburb. The interior ministry said the 8pm to 5am curfew was necessary to prevent damage to property and to ensure public safety. Prime Minister Habib Essid, on a visit to France, said that the situation "has been brought under control". President Beji Caid Essebsi was due to deliver a televised address to the nation on Friday evening, his office said, in what would be his first public remarks since the recent unrest began. Earlier Friday new clashes broke out in the central town of Sidi Bouzid between stone-throwing protesters and police who fired tear gas, according to an AFP journalist. Authorities called for calm after 16 people were arrested on vandalism charges in a suburb of Tunis, the latest incident in almost a week of unrest. National Guard units clashed with individuals in balaclavas until early Friday, an official said. An AFP journalist reported that two household appliance stores and a bank branch had been ransacked on the neighborhood’s main street and a police post burnt. In central Tunisia, security forces have clashed with protesters in several towns, including in Kasserine where the unrest started, using tear gas and water cannons to disperse crowds. At least three police stations have been attacked over the past 24 hours and 42 members of the security forces wounded, the interior ministry said. "This is the most serious social crisis since 2011," independent analyst Selim Kharrat told AFP. The unrest has echoes of the public anger unleashed by the death of a street vendor who set himself on fire in December 2010 in protest at unemployment and police harassment. That desperate act of defiance provided the spark for the uprising that overthrew Ben Ali and inspired revolutions across the Arab world. The new spike in unrest has prompted Essid, who also attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on Thursday, to cut short a European tour and return for an emergency meeting of his cabinet on Saturday. France on Friday pledged one billion euros ($1.1 billion) in development aid to Tunisia over the next five years, after Essid held talks with French President Francois Hollande. The support to France's former colony, "aims to help poor regions and young people, putting the focus on employment," Hollande's office said. While Tunisia is hailed as a rare success story of the Arab Spring uprisings, the authorities have failed to resolve the problems of social exclusion and regional inequalities.
Tunisia also faces jihadist violence that has devastated its vital tourism industry. Attacks claimed by the Islamic State group last year at the national museum and a beach resort killed a total of 60 people, all but one of them foreign tourists. An IS suicide bombing also killed 12 presidential guards in the capital in November. The authorities on Friday urged Tunisians to be patient with them. "We would like people to show a little wisdom and know that it is in our interest to safeguard Tunisia," Kamel Ayadi, minister for public services, governance and the fight against corruption, said on the radio. The interior ministry said that "criminals have been taking advantage of the situation" to pillage and would be severely dealt with, while "peaceful demonstrations" would be respected. Defense ministry spokesman Belhassen Oueslati told AFP that additional army units were being deployed "to protect public institutions as well as sensitive private institutions".

U.N. Refugee Chief Urges Safe Routes to Europe
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/January 22/16/European and other nations must provide more safe, legal opportunities for refugees to be resettled, the head of the United Nations refugee agency said on Friday. UNHCR chief Filippo Grandi also urged humanitarian access throughout Syria, describing images of starving children in the war-torn country as "unacceptable". Grandi renewed a longstanding U.N. call for more aid for the countries neighboring Syria that are hosting most of the more than four million people who have fled the conflict since it began in March 2011. But he also urged wealthy nations to provide alternatives to the illegal smuggling routes that waves of refugees have used to flee in the past year. "We need to increase the number of places available to refugees... that want to go to other countries not through boats and criminal networks but through legal ways: resettlement, scholarships, medical leave, family reunification, humanitarian visas," he said at a news conference in Beirut. "It's cheaper for everybody, more orderly for those countries and it's so much better and safe for the refugees themselves," he added. Since last year Europe has been rocked by its biggest migration crisis since World War II, with hundreds of thousands of people fleeing war and poverty arriving on its shores. Many of those coming are fleeing Syria's conflict, which has killed more than 260,000 people. The journey has proved deadly for many migrants, including 44 people who drowned Friday when three boats sank off the coast of Greece. "We need to multiply legal opportunities for people to travel safely," Grandi said. The Italian diplomat, who took the helm of the UNCHR on January 1, also said he had urged Syria's government to provide greater humanitarian access, during a visit to Damascus this week. "I told them that it was unacceptable that images of starving children in besieged areas would be all over the media, that this was a shame on Syria," he said. Grandi said the Syrian government had told him to appeal to "other parties" to ensure access, and he urged "all those who have influence" to push for greater aid access as well as a peace process. His comments come after international condemnation of the situation in the Syrian town of Madaya, which is under government siege. Several dozen people are believed to have died in the town because of food and medical shortages. An agreement last September for Madaya, a second rebel-held town and two villages besieged by opposition forces was meant to open up humanitarian access. But aid groups and the U.N. have so far only been able to make three deliveries to Madaya and government-held Fuaa and Kafraya, along with one trip to rebel-held Zabadani.

Libya's Chaos: Threat to the West
Mohamed Chtatou/Gatestone Institute/January 22, 2016
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7282/libya-chaos
ISIS badly needs Libya for its operations in North Africa: to spread its paramilitary brigades, to organize its terrorist networks and, most importantly, to prepare its political pawns, after the chaos, to take over power.
"Over the last four years, Libya has become a key node in the expansion of Islamic radicalism across North Africa... and into Europe. If events in Libya continue on their current path, they will likely haunt the United States and its Western allies for a decade or more." -- Ethan Chorin, Foreign Policy.
ISIS taking control of North Africa, the soft underbelly of Europe, would amount to it getting ready to recapture, by terror and force, al-Andalus from the Catholic Christians of Spain.
In 2011 when Libya's former ruler, Muammar Gaddafi, was murdered by the mob of militiamen, many people believed it was the beginning of a new, free, democratic country. Libya, however, did not become free or democratic. Instead, it became fractured, violent, tribal and divided. Rather than starting a new life, Libya was sliding slowly toward some sort of hell.
Over the years, as violence became a daily casual occurrence, Libya almost became synonymous in the news with disorder, and on its way to becoming yet another failed stated, like Somalia.
In spite of that, hope emerged anew with the attempt of the United Nations to negotiate a national agreement through UNMSIL (United Nations Support Mission in Libya).
In its Resolution 2144 (March 14, 2014), article 6, the UN Security Council tasked the UNMSIL to support Libyan government efforts to:
Ensure the transition to democracy;
Promote the rule of law and monitor and protect human rights, in accordance with Libya's international legal obligations;
Control unsecured arms and related materiel in Libya and counter their proliferation; and
Build governance capacity.
Subsequently, on December 17, 2015, under the leadership of UNMSIL, the different protagonists of the Libyan crisis reached a historic agreement in the Moroccan city of Skhirat.
The agreement did not mean the end of the turmoil in Libya: there are still a lot of splinter groups that are not a part of the accord. They have both the means and the will to stand in the way of peace. There is also the lethal Islamic State (ISIS), present throughout the country with proxy organizations, ready to step in, and for which agreements mean nothing.
Martin Kobler, the Special Representative of the Secretary General of the UN and head of UNMSIL, made it clear that:
"Urgent solutions must be found to bolster the Libyan-led fight against terrorism and in particular the threat of Daesh [ISIS]. The dire humanitarian situation in Benghazi and other areas needs to be addressed as a matter of highest priority, including through the establishment of a dedicated reconstruction fund for Benghazi. The concerns of the Eastern and Southern constituencies should be brought to the forefront. This work must start immediately. The signing of the Libyan Political Agreement is the first step on the path of building a democratic Libyan state based on the principles of human rights and the rule of law."
No sooner was the agreement concluded than, unsurprisingly, the answer "No" came both from the uninvited marginal groups, as well as ISIS.
When a truck bomb was detonated, leaving 65 people dead, on January 7, 2016 outside a police training center in the western city of Zliten, the message was clear: there will be no peace. No group took credit for the attack.
Libya is divided by tribalism. Many of the armed groups that represent the various tribes of the country could not care less about national unity: they would only lose wealth and power to the increased dominance of the federal government. As a result, they would become insignificant and die out. As long as Libya is in chaos, it benefits them to bear arms.
Other Libyans seem to favor the "Caliphate solution." Hard-core Islamists want a strict and radical Islam to prevail in the Muslim world through the re-Islamization of society. They believe that by countering the influence of the West, Islam can once again become the most important influence on the international scene and regain its long-lost, Golden Age prominence. They aim to make clear that any UN-brokered accord is a Western-imposed subterfuge to halt the inexorable advance of glorious Islam.
From the time of the Ottoman Empire until the overthrow of Gaddafi, Libya was ruled by heavily-centralized governments that delegated minimal power to the regions. This tight rule insured peace and stability to both the people and to the state. Tribes existed, but had only an honorific role and a cultural existence, no more than that. They were used, at times, as auxiliaries to strengthen the power of the state and, in return, were given economic grants.
When Gaddafi toppled King Idris Senussi in 1969, he consolidated the state and made it all-prominent. He subdued the population through generous cash handouts and a wide array of economic concessions. The population did not have to work; if some did, they held senior positions that did not require great effort. This way, Gaddafi guaranteed to himself total control of the state and the legitimacy of "the Revolution" to get rid of recalcitrant or groups or individuals -- as he expeditiously did.
In the aftermath of the "Arab Spring" of 2011 and the ensuing uprising of the Cyrenaica region against the rule of Gaddafi, NATO sided with the revolutionaries of Benghazi to topple him. However, NATO conducted its war operations from the skies, and never fielded any ground forces. In a March 2015 article in Foreign Policy, Ethan Chorin wrote:
"The current situation in Libya is the product of a series of significant mistakes, erroneous assumptions, and myths that date back to NATO intervention in 2011. The United States and its NATO allies made a fundamental mistake in not imposing a robust reconstruction plan on Libya and stabilizing the country before radicalism was able to flourish. Even U.S. President Barack Obama understands that this was a mistake: In an interview last year with the New York Times, he cited lack of a plan for "the day after Qaddafi is gone" as potentially one of his biggest foreign-policy regrets. (The Libyans, of course, share much of the blame too.)"
As Gaddafi's forces withdrew from various regions, religious and tribal groups moved in and helped themselves to the huge arsenals left behind. With that came the temptation to rule and have access to a share of oil reserves. At the fall of Ghaddafi in October 2011, there were over 300 armed groups, all dreaming of leadership and control.
In May 2014, Libyan General Khalifa Haftar, with support from the U.S., Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia, led an army from the east to rid the country of the powerful Islamist groups. His secular-oriented movement, dubbed "Operation Dignity," in spite of a few limited successes, soon faltered miserably.
In reaction to the establishment of Haftar's movement, the Islamists, supported by Turkey and Qatar, put together their own front, Fajr Libya ("Libya Dawn"), on July 13, 2014. The declared aim of Fajr Libya was to correct the direction of the revolution and set up a stable government; the undeclared objective was to turn Libya into an Islamist country. Fajr Libya was made up of several Islamist militias, all dreaming of power, wealth and religious consecration:
The Muslim Brotherhood
Libyan Shield Militia of Misrata with links with the Ikhwane (brotherhood)
The Tripoli Brigade, of the famous Islamist leader Belhaj, who had opposed Gaddafi openly
The Libya Revolutionaries Operation Room
The Fajr Libya front was, in addition, allied to a large group of heavily armed brigades, each controlling one tribe or region and reflecting the disintegration of Libya into small emirates reminiscent of the taifas in Arab Spain.[1]
During the era of the Barbary pirates, which lasted from the 16th to the 19th century, North Africa developed a taste for piracy, under the religious justification of Jihad al-Bahr ("jihad at sea") that protected the Dar al-Islam ("domain of Islam") from the Dar al-Kufr ("domain of infidels"). This religious justification became especially prominent after the fall of Grenada in 1492, and the ensuing efforts to reconquer al-Andalus (Spain) from the Christians. The Barbary pirates' raids meant easy gains of goods and slaves.
Today, the tribal piracy instinct again seems strong, for various reasons. Among them are:
The affirmation of undemocratic tribal and patriarchal power under the cover of Islam;
The ability to dispose of the riches of the country directly, by selling oil and benefiting from its revenues without having to pay any taxes to a central government;
Undertaking contraband commerce and, most importantly, organizing, unhindered, immigration traffic to Europe.
Many of the Libyan groups and warlords therefore see a national reconciliation as a threat to their power and lucrative business. Many believe that with the Zliten terrorist attack of January 7, the warlords were sending a message to Libyan politicians that their political agreement would not go farther than Skhirat, the Moroccan city where it was signed.
ISIS badly needs Libya for its operations in North Africa: to spread its paramilitary brigades, to organize its terrorist networks and, most importantly, to prepare its political pawns, after the chaos, to take power.
Its taking control of North Africa, the soft underbelly of Europe, would amount to getting ready to recapture, by terror and force, al-Andalus from the Catholic Christians of Spain.
In his Foreign Policy article, Chorin notes that,
"Over the last four years, Libya has become a key node in the expansion of Islamic radicalism across North Africa, West Africa, across the Sahel, and into Europe. Arms and fighters have crossed Libya's porous borders, feeding radical organizations from al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb to Boko Haram and reinforcing radical trends in the heart of the Middle East. If events in Libya continue on their current path, they will likely haunt the United States and its Western allies for a decade or more."
If Libya is not stabilized in the near future, the whole world will regret it.
Stabilizing Libya would undoubtedly help to fight religious radicalism in West Africa; cut the lifeline of the lethal Boko Haram, active in the whole of West Africa; and impede al-Qaeda, which is threatening the Sahel countries of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.
To insure peace and stability for Libya, the UN's Skhirat Agreement recommended strengthening UNMSIL to be a peace-keeping force. This peace-keeping force must be of, at least, 10,000 elite soldiers with heavy equipment and NATO air support to undertake the pacification of the country, with obviously the help of government forces sympathetic to the Skhirat accord.
This peace-keeping force could be made of the following countries: Spain, Italy, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Pakistan and Senegal. The problem with any UN peacekeeping force, as seen, for example, with UNIFIL in South Lebanon, is that when the first shot is fired, they run. There also seems to be a tendency among peacekeepers, especially in Africa, to trade food for sex with children.
The Skhirat Agreement recommended the following actions be implemented as soon as possible. This is what the participants agreed to, but all they seem to do is underscore the sanctimonious grandiosity of the UN:
1 - Disarm militias:
Disarm all paramilitary groups by persuasion, incentive or sheer force and make, by law, bearing arms strictly illegal;
Comment: Who should do that?
2 - Train a national army and a police force:
Offer the militias the possibility to integrate the army and police force and be under the rule of law.
Comment: Why would the militias prefer that to having their own familiar honey-pot?
3 - Undertake a cultural study:
There is an urgent necessity to understand the social and cultural make-up of the Libyan society. The Amazigh and Tuareg people must be granted unconditionally their cultural rights.
Comment: Is anyone expecting the warrior tribesmen willingly to go along with that?
4 - Adopt a federal system of government:
Probably the best government system that could befit the numerous needs and the varied wishes and hopes of the Libyan population in political, cultural and religious terms is undeniably the federal system, with which tribal groupings, cultural minorities and religious lodges can, eventually, all identify.
Comment: ISIS and the other groups would probably fight this to the death.
5 - Help the country set up an open and competitive economy:
International economic institutions will need to help Libya restructure its economy, especially now that the price of oil has fallen steeply. Libya is and has always being an oil-producing country where most of the natives never worked.
Comment: This is the problem of so many oil-producing countries in which whoever is in charge does not want to share the spoils.
The problem always seems to be: Who should be doing the hard and dangerous work -- the boots on the ground to mop up.
Libya is on the verge of implosion. The Skhirat Agreement, with its good intentions, is not enough. If the armed groups are left on the loose, Libya will effectively be the newest failed state. At present, Libya is a lethal danger to Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
The Skhirat Agreement (left), with its good intentions, is not enough to save Libya from Islamist militias such as Fajr Libya (right).
Dr. Mohamed Chtatou, an author, is a Professor at the University of Mohammed V in Rabat. He is currently a political analyst with Moroccan, Saudi and British media on politics and culture in the Middle East and Islam.
[1] First Taifa period (1009–1106), second Taifa period (1140–1203) and third Taifa period (1232–1287).
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How long can Saudi Arabia afford Yemen war?
Amal Nasser/Al-Monitor/January 22/16
During the first Gulf War (1990-1991), more than 800,000 Yemenis working in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were forced to leave their host countries because Yemen did not provide political support to the international intervention against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Saudi Arabia also suspended all economic assistance to Yemen, aid that was resumed a decade later in 2000. Saudi Arabia’s decision to minimize economic cooperation with Yemen as a result of what has been perceived as Yemen’s support of Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait reflects a long history of political animosity; this is a history that continues until our present day. On March 26, 2015, 25 years after the first Gulf War, Saudi Arabia launched a war against Yemen that is proving to have detrimental effects on its economy much like the political and economic repercussions of the massive return of Yemeni workers in 1991. The unification of two Yemeni states (the north Yemen Arab Republic and the south People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen) resulted in the formation of the Republic of Yemen three months prior to Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait. The newly formed country's economy inherited many structural problems and massive debt from the former two states.
Yemen's treasury was burdened by the costs of unification such as paying for southern civil servants to move to the new capital, Sanaa, and paying interest on its massive debt. On top of its other economic challenges, Yemen was to absorb the shock of 800,000 returnees and their pressure on the already weak job market. With their return, the estimated $350 million a month in remittances they used to send back home stopped, eliminating an important source of income for many families. The glorious days of economic prosperity of the 1980s characterized by a low unemployment rate of 6-8% and double-digit growth rates in North Yemen, which was inhabited with two thirds of the two states' population, ended abruptly. These economic pressures enhanced by the mass return of workers did not leave room for the political differences to be sorted out. Civil war broke out in the summer of 1994 in what could be interpreted as a symptom of economic failure. The unification of the two Yemens was built on the promise of exploitation of oil resources for the benefit of the people, but when the economic situation deteriorated, the southern leadership — which was being politically marginalized in the new government — started calling for secession. Ali Abdullah Saleh, the first president of the unified Yemen, did not approve such a move by the southern leadership, which fled the country after Saleh’s victory in July 1994.
By 1995 the Yemeni government implemented a program of macroeconomic adjustment and structural reforms with support from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund and reduced spending on defense and civil service and cut subsidies. The Yemeni economy started showing signs of recovery and stability. In the two decades following its civil war, Yemen became very dependent on oil revenue and could do little to cope with fluctuating oil prices. Unemployment reached 17% in 2011 from 13% in 1991, according to World Bank data. Inflation was in the double-digit zone and the government’s dependence on developmental assistance was growing, based on the author’s analysis of data from the World Bank, IMF and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Even though Saudi Arabia’s economy was becoming one of the world's biggest during in the past two decades, international financial institutions called on oil-exporting Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, to conduct structural reform to respond to the deficiencies in their economies.
Masood Ahmed, director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, wrote in 2012 that “fiscal sustainability will be an issue” for Gulf Cooperation Council countries. In its 2012 regional economic outlook, the IMF recommended to “curtail current expenditures while protecting the poor” as a response to the risk of declining oil prices. The fiscal break-even price of GCC country, for which a country’s fiscal accounts are in balance, was rising and increasing the fiscal vulnerability of the country. The IMF also urged product market reforms, labor market reforms and measures to address the impending budget deficits those economies will be facing due to increasing expenditures and declining or steady oil revenues.
Policies to cut spending were unlikely to be introduced in a monarchy like Saudi Arabia, especially after the Arab Spring, where tax-paying citizens along with non-tax-paying Bahrainis and next-door Yemenis went out on the streets to claim their rights in shaping the policies that govern their daily lives. The risk of people demanding more political rights was growing and cutting spending was not the optimal strategy for the kingdom.
As the kingdom continued its generous fiscal policy by providing more benefits to its citizens in response to the people’s dissatisfaction with the economic and political situation, it ran a deficit of 3.4% of GDP in 2014 due to a fall in oil revenues. It was evident that the next year went the same way because no action was taken to address the spending issue and the monarchy was reluctant to conduct economic reforms for fear they would encourage calls for political reform. The unspoken agreement between oil-exporting monarchies and their citizens was the exchange of welfare for political freedom, a win-win situation in which citizens enjoy luxurious lifestyles financed by petrodollars and the monarchies enjoy no challenge to their reign.
When the Houthis, old foes of the kingdom, seized control of the Yemeni capital in late 2014, the political animosity between the two countries returned. Back in 2009, Saudi Arabia engaged in a military operation against the rebel group after it attacked a Saudi patrol on its southern border with Yemen.
Saudi Arabia launched and led a military intervention in Yemen in March 2015. Since leading a war, especially one with little prospect of ending, comes with huge costs, Saudi Arabia recorded the highest budget deficit since the post-Gulf War period at nearly $100 billion (15% of GDP) in 2015, and projected its highest budgeted-for deficit yet for 2016 (13.5% of GDP). Once again, we see an overspill of political conflict between the two neighboring countries onto their economies. Needless to say, the Yemeni economy was failing long before this war and is barely functioning at the moment. Saudi Arabia’s siege on Yemen reduced critical imports such as food and medical supplies, and fuel prices increased due to the Houthis' decision to completely lift oil subsidies, adding to the burdens of skyrocketing prices of basic commodities such as food and water since the start of the Saudi-led airstrikes.
The kingdom's economic reforms of raising gas and diesel prices, cutting fuel subsidies in half and supporting the introduction of a GCC-wide value-added tax might ease the pressure of sustaining a war for nine months and perhaps longer. These structural reforms were long overdue and their introduction at this time is revealing. Addressing the economic downturn by transforming the Saudi economy to cover its fiscal expansion via tax and fees collection comes with a political price: the political inclusion of the taxpaying citizen. It's a price the kingdom is now willing to pay, as we have seen Saudi women not only voting for the very first time in the kingdom’s history in December but also winning seats in municipal councils.
Yemen has not been able to absorb the shock of the mass return of Yemeni workers from Saudi Arabia even two decades after the change took place, and suffered an uprising fueled by anger at economic failure. The Saudi economy is trying to absorb 2015's sticker shock but cannot continue to run such a huge deficit even with the introduction of economic and political reforms. More political freedom without sound economic policy will leave more room for the people to question economic policies that seem to only benefit the upper class, for officials will have to show more accountability and citizens will have more space to express their disapproval of official policies. The war on Yemen revealed to the Saudis that spending cannot be solely financed by oil revenue. As they introduce revenue-collecting mechanisms, they should also reform mechanisms of capital transfer to the public to minimize the gap between the rich and the poor, as it is known that the poor are the most affected by tighter revenue-collecting policies. Otherwise, the Saudi war on Yemen will mark the beginning of an economic downturn that will surely spill over onto its political system in the long run.
On the other hand, Yemen’s shattered economy would need thorough restructuring for the country to be able to lead its people into a better future. But before any planning for restructuring can take place, the ongoing war must stop. The economic inclusion of Yemen will be decisive in paving the way toward a less turbulent relationship between the two countries.

Rouhani: Not even the first Shiite imam was this strict
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/January 22/16
One day after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei indirectly approved a massive disqualification of aspiring parliamentary candidates, President Hassan Rouhani showed he is not retreating from his attempts to fill Iran’s next parliament with like-minded allies.The Guardian Council disqualified more than half of the 12,000 candidates who registered to run in the February parliamentary elections and only qualified 1% of the 3,000 Reformist candidates who registered. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, head of the council, said he would not budge under pressure to reinstate them. A council spokesman said some candidates were not approved because of previous disqualifications, unreliable education credentials and open court cases. Other candidates, including clerics, were disqualified for “non-adherence” to Islam and to the Islamic Republic. During a Jan. 21 speech at the Interior Ministry, Rouhani criticized the disqualification of candidates over their alleged non-adherence to Islam. He said that when Imam Ali ibn Abi Talib (regarded by Shiites as the first imam, and also the son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad) looked for governors, he not only judged their religious qualifications, such as whether they prayed at night or how much they gave to charity, but also considered their efficacy, understanding and administrative and management ability.
Rouhani noted that those two criteria — adherence to Islam and to the Islamic Republic — are often cited in disqualifying candidates while other criteria are ignored. Referencing the dire security situation in the region and tumultuous oil prices, Rouhani said, “Under these conditions today, employment is the primary issue for us and competent individuals must be sent to parliament.” Rouhani also said that since the Iranian Constitution stipulates that Jews and Zoroastrians each should have a member in parliament to represent their communities, according to the constitution, other groups should too. Without mentioning a specific group's name, Rouhani said there is a faction in the country that has 7 million to 10 million followers. He probably was referring to the Reformist faction. While it is inaccurate to compare Reformists to a religious group, they have been essentially sidelined from Iranian politics despite having popular support. Reformist candidates are likely to support Rouhani’s policies, given that many of them supported him in the 2013 presidential elections. The Feb. 26 parliamentary elections will “determine the domestic policies of the administration,” said Rouhani, who will now be focusing on domestic issues after the implementation of the nuclear deal with the six world powers. Rouhani’s ministers have been summoned at a record pace by the current conservative-led parliament, which has opposed the administration’s domestic and foreign policies.
Referring to parliament by one of its names, Rouhani said, “Parliament is the People’s House and not the house of one faction.” He added that his administration is a “moderate” one, and though he would prefer parliament to be made up of moderate politicians, his administration will not interfere with other groups' candidates. Rouhani also said Vice President Eshag Jahangiri is currently consulting with the Guardian Council, presumably to reinstate some of the disqualified candidates.

Why one former IDF chief of staff may be heading for politics
Mazal Mualem/Al-Monitor/January 22/16
In the months that immediately followed the 2013 election, the Labor Party under Shelly Yachimovich was left licking its wounds after another resounding failure at the polls. At the time, former Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi was mentioned as someone who could pull the party out of its morass and lead it back to power. Proponents of the idea included former minister and then-Knesset member Binyamin Ben-Eliezer and the Chairman of the Histadrut Labor Union Ofer Eini. Both Eini and Ben-Eliezer were close to Ashkenazi, who ranked high in popularity polls. They both believed that he could extract himself from the public imbroglio he had gotten into as a result of his fierce disagreements with Minister of Defense Ehud Barak. Eini and Ben-Eliezer were supposed to be Ashkenazi’s turbo engines, when he ran in the primaries for head of the Labor Party. They planned to present the former chief of staff as an updated version of Yitzhak Rabin in 1992 and of Ehud Barak in 1999 — former generals appointed chair of the party who managed to bring the party back to power.
At the time, Eini and Ben-Eliezer also claimed, and rightly so, that the Harpaz scandal (allegedly involving Boaz Harpaz, an associate of Ehud Barak, and forged documents concerning Ashkenazi's successor) was only of interest to the press. The story was too convoluted to interest the public and affect its attitudes toward Ashkenazi. Polls conducted at the time, including polls immediately following the release of the first draft of the State Comptroller’s serious report about Ashkenazi in March 2012, proved that his popularity barely suffered as a result of the scandal. On the contrary, the public remembered him fondly for rehabilitating the Israel Defense Forces after the Second Lebanon War in 2006, with its controversial results. In other words, even after he got himself entangled in the Harpaz affair, Ashkenazi was still a hot political item. He had the reputation of a folksy figure who was not afraid of conflict, but also as someone with moderate political views. In the leadership vacuum in the center-left, Ashkenazi stood out.
Even with the law requiring military brass to have a “cooling off” period before they enter politics, Ashkenazi would have been eligible to run in February 2014. Nevertheless, he was in no hurry. He enjoyed being courted by politicians, and explained that he would not take any action until the entire Harpaz affair was over. That finally happened Jan. 20, more than five years after it all began. Attorney General Yehuda Weinstein announced that he would not be indicting Ashkenazi over the Harpaz affair. Nevertheless, it is not at all certain that the former chief of staff will indeed enter politics, and even if he does, it is still not certain that he will do so as part of the Zionist Camp (previous the Labor Party). Eini and Ben-Eliezer are no longer there to pave the way for him, and current Chairman Isaac Herzog has no intention of giving up his seat without a fight. Meanwhile, Herzog made do with tweeting congratulations to Ashkenazi now that the case against him has been closed.
Chairman of Yesh Atid Yair Lapid also took to Twitter to congratulate Ashkenazi, though in his case it is more than highly likely that a personal conversation was also involved. Lapid has been courting Ashkenazi for months. He is offering him the No. 2 spot in the party in the next elections and naming him as Yesh Atid’s candidate for defense minister. But as we have already noted, Ashkenazi is in no hurry. The very fact that Lapid is so interested in him shows that he is still popular with the public and, therefore, a valuable asset. This is especially true since Lapid suffers from a dearth of security credentials. He needs people like Ashkenazi to draw voters from the moderate right. Then there is the fact that Ashkenazi is of Middle Eastern origin (Mizrahi in Hebrew) on his mother's side — a factor that could help Lapid shatter Yesh Atid’s reputation as a party of Israeli Jews of European origin (Ashkenazi in Hebrew).
The bottom line is that the Harpaz affair did not destroy Ashkenazi’s public career. He can even use it now to his political advantage by claiming that Ehud Barak and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried to eliminate him out of fear that he might threaten their status. Furthermore, the attorney general’s decision to close the criminal case against him could become a badge of integrity. Even after the authorities listened to 100,000 recordings of phone calls he made as chief of staff, they found no evidence to indict him. Nevertheless, it is also worth noting that the report released by Weinstein this week refers to a behavior that was allegedly harmful to national security. This means that if Ashkenazi does decide to enter politics, he will need the skin of an elephant to withstand all sorts of artillery attacks. The big question is whether the former chief of staff has what it takes. Can he contend with a brutal, highly focused campaign against him? The way things seem now, the answer is no. Ashkenazi’s actions over the past few years indicate that he lacks this ability. He is easily insulted, extremely sensitive to criticism and wary of every word written about him. These particular traits only grew more pronounced as a result of the Harpaz affair. In many ways, the former chief of staff is now an exhausted man. It is not at all sure if he still has the appetite needed to wage a campaign for the office of prime minister.
“Ashkenazi neither looks nor sounds like someone with an urgent need to get into politics and prove something. He needs time,” a political figure who spoke with him told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. Fortunately for Ashkenazi — and for the politicians courting him, too — there are no elections on the horizon. In other words, he is under no pressure to decide right now.
Given the current leadership crisis within the political center-left, Ashkenazi will likely be courted by these parties up until the next election. His name will come up again and again as a potential partner in all sorts of political alliances, whether it is with Yair Lapid, Isaac Herzog or even Gideon Saar of the Likud. After all, they all share one main objective: removing Netanyahu from power.

King Salman sets Saudi Arabia on a re-energized path
Andrew Bowen/Al Arabyia/January 22/16
King Salman’s ascension a year ago after the death of the late King Abdullah opened a period of optimism that a new generation of policy-makers might re-energize the Kingdom amidst a period of rising economic and security challenges, at home and abroad. The king moved quickly to name a new cabinet which included his youngest son and one of his prominent closest advisors Mohammad bin Salman and formed from younger technocrats and conservatives to chart Riyadh on a new course
New global alignments
Salman’s decision to promote two of Washington’s key interlocutors, Mohammad bin Nayef as Crown Prince and Ambassador Adel al-Jubeir (the former Saudi Ambassador to Washington) as Foreign Minister, was a further signal to Washington that U.S.-Saudi relations would not be substantially impacted and that the new King was committed to a renewed partnership despite differences. King Salman importantly visited Washington last June with the Deputy Crown Prince after both the Crown Prince and the Deputy Crown Prince attended the Camp David Gulf summit held earlier in the spring.
In the first year of Salman’s reign, the King has succeeded in streamlining decision-making and projecting an image of confidence and action that appeals to the Saudi public.
However, in the wake of the Iran deal and Washington’s shifting global engagement with the region, Riyadh has further invested in its relations with states that don’t always align with the U.S., such as Russia (Prince Mohammad bin Salman visited Sochi this past summer) and China (Beijing imports the majority of its oil from Saudi Arabia). King Salman hosted earlier this week China’s President Xi for his first visit to the Kingdom. Riyadh has deepened as well its relations with key European states, including France (recently concluding a major defense agreement).
This diversification of alliances has been an attempt by the Kingdom to better position itself for the challenges of the 21st century and responds to the diffusion of global power since the end of the Cold War. Saudi Arabia’s participation on the U.N. Human Rights Council and at the Paris Climate talks have been a clear signal that the Riyadh is further positioning itself to be a critical stakeholder beyond the region.
A new course at home
In the first year of Salman’s reign, the King has succeeded in streamlining decision-making and projecting an image of confidence and action that appeals to the Saudi public. He importantly consolidated the Kingdom’s economic policy (including energy policy) under a single super-committee, the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, chaired by Deputy Crown Prince, Prince Mohammad bin Salman. This Council critically has taken substantive steps to introduce sweeping reforms in the face of low oil prices. These reforms include: austerity measures across the government ministries, initiatives to diversify the economy and decrease youth unemployment, and proposals to introduce taxation. Prince Mohammad has also taken some measures to increase spending in critical areas, notably in improving the Kingdom’s infrastructure and boosting the productivity of critical, but underperforming sectors of the economy.
Despite low oil prices, Riyadh has remained steadfast in ensuring that the Kingdom doesn’t loose market share in the face of growing global competition. While this strategy has taken a toll on Saudi’s expansive foreign currency reserves, it has strengthened OPEC’s position against the at one time strong, U.S. shale industry. The Kingdom has also remained committed to maintaining the Riyal’s peg to the U.S. dollar.
Going into the second year of his rule, King Salman and his son will need to continue to pursue economic reforms and austerity measures to better position the Kingdom in a low oil climate. Riyadh will also have to continue to borrow money both domestically and internationally to finance its budget. The new Council will to need to find ways to diversify the Saudi economy further, privatize certain holdings, and diversify the government’s investment of its revenues. While a Valued Added Tax is being drafted, further taxation would likely prove to be unpopular.
A more assertive position abroad
While King Salman has prioritized improving the Saudi economy, Riyadh has taken a more pro-active position regionally to counter-Iran’s expansive behavior in the face of a perceived U.S. drawback. Saudi Arabia’s multi-national coalition to push back the Houthis and its external ally, Iran from controlling Yemen is one such example of its new assertiveness and independence. Riyadh also has taken a larger role in trying to reach a settlement of Syria’s civil war and recently launched a new global military coalition, headquartered in Riyadh, to address Islamic extremism. Such a coalition could be used to more robustly support Washington’s efforts to counter ISIS. This Coalition could also in the future be an important alliance to push back against Tehran after the Iran nuclear deal. Saudi Arabia continues as well to bolster its support for regional states such as Egypt and Jordan who are facing a number of economic and security challenges.
Despite taking more forward leadership in the region in the absence of a strong U.S. role and a more assertive Russian role (which Riyadh has viewed with both engagement and wariness) to bolster regional states and communities and push back against Iran, Salman has been equally wary of over-drawn foreign adventures, most notably in Yemen and Syria, and has sought to pair his willingness to use force with diplomacy. He’s also indicated that foreign expenditures of these commitments aren’t open-ended and the predominant priority is ensuring the long-term fiscal health and prosperity of the Kingdom at home. However, Iran’s recent escalation of tensions with the ransacking of Saudi Arabia’s embassy in Tehran and its continued interference in Saudi domestic affairs and in the Arab world means that while Riyadh will unlikely engage in new foreign conflicts abroad, it will continue to have to juggle both domestic and regional challenges. Overall, King Salman’s first year has repositioned Saudi Arabia to better address the challenges of the 21st century and this next year will be an important test for his leadership.

Ban Muslims? Which ones?
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabyia/January 22/16
U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump realizes that his popularity is partly due to playing on people’s fears about Hispanic and Muslim immigrants. He has called for a ban on Muslims entering the country until the government can differentiate between good and bad ones. Americans usually take pride in their immigrant origins, and say this is the reason for their country’s success. This is true. Arabs and Muslims arrived 200 years ago and helped build the United States, so they have a share in this historical legacy. Trump does not explain how his proposal will be implemented. There are a billion Muslims worldwide, and most countries do not include religious affiliations in passports, so how would he recognize them? There are Muslims with Chinese, Indian and Western names. As with Christianity, there are different Muslim sects. If Trump decides to limit the ban to Muslim Arabs, there are more than 15 million Arab Christians. How will he recognize them? What will he do with the 5 million Muslim Americans, the ancestors of whom perhaps arrived in the United States before Trump’s grandfather?
False alarm?
His main concern is to reach the White House. I do not believe that he means what he says against Muslims, because he has had business dealings and personal relationships with them for decades, and still does - more so than most Americans. Trump does not explain how his proposal will be implemented. There are a billion Muslims worldwide, and most countries do not include religious affiliations in passports, so how would he recognize them? All those who have listened to the promises of former presidential candidates during the past decades know that they will always be subject to the laws of the country and its constitution, which is considered higher than the decisions of the president and Congress. I do not think there is still something to be done that is legal and has not been applied by former presidents, whether about illegal immigration or surveillance of Muslims. Putting restrictions on terrorists and extremists benefits the Muslim majority affected by their actions. It is unfortunate that he, or any other politician, would breach the ethical norms and rules respected by most U.S. presidential candidates, but we should not overstretch Trump’s words.

Behind the Iranian mixed reaction to lifted sanctions
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Al Arabyia/January 22/16
When the nuclear deal was reached in July 2015, Iranians celebrated on the streets. One would have imagined greater celebration when the deal was actually implemented this week, but the streets have been quiet, and Iranian media have downplayed the lifting of sanctions. “Do you think I’m going to see a toman [Iran’s currency] coming to my pocket from the billions of dollars that the government will receive? Definitely not,” said Saman, a father and engineer who was laid off from his job last year. His opinion, which echoes what other Iranians have told me, reflects years of unfulfilled government promises. Cynicism seems to be overshadowing optimism among Iranians, who either do not believe they will reap the rewards of sanctions relief, or think hardliners will be further empowered to suppress civil liberties. Tehran is using Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Qods forces and revenues to win battles in the region, including in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon. Tehran is hemorrhaging billions of dollars to keep Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power.These expenditures, and the latest drop in oil prices, have brought Iran’s government to the brink of bankruptcy. That is what brought hardliners to agree to the nuclear deal. The government’s priority is not improving the living standards of ordinary citizens, but preserving its regional interests, so sanctions relief will be used to bolster the military.
“What I care about are finding a job, a reduction in the prices of food and rent, and inflation,” said Boshra, a recent graduate from Tehran University. “Things will remain the same for a long time. The government will use the argument that it needs the cash because it’s fighting to protect our country.”
Some 60 percent of Iran’s population were born after the 1979 revolution, and have less personal connection or sympathy to the revolutionary ideals of the government. After 35 years of living under the Islamic republic, Iranians are educated enough to know the truth and to see through unfulfilled promises.
Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the revolution, promised Iranians they would not pay for electricity or gas, and oil revenues would be sent directly to their homes. The tape of that speech is now banned, and there are harsh punishments for possessing it. Some people draw parallels between Khomeini’s promises and those of current President Hassan Rowhani.
Hope and cynicism
However, some Iranians are hopeful that the nuclear deal will lead to full rapprochement between Iran and the West, particularly the United States. When I visited Iran, I saw the contrast between hardliners’ views and those of ordinary people regarding the United States. Iranian society appears to be among the most pro-American in the region. Some business owners, and those making a living from tourism, see the lifting of sanctions as a positive development because Western firms are rushing to invest in Iran and the number of Western tourists will increase exponentially.However, cynicism seems to be overshadowing optimism among Iranians, who either do not believe they will reap the rewards of sanctions relief, or think hardliners will be further empowered to suppress civil liberties.

After a year in power, King Salman’s economic reforms are key
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Al Arabyia/January 22/16
For most Western observers, the analysis of Saudi Arabia has long been a comfortably stable pursuit. Saudi foreign policy centered almost exclusively on its close ties with the U.S., a constant since the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt, just as its energy policy was focused on keeping global oil prices stable, with Riyadh using its heft as the swing producer of OPEC to do so. This trade—agreeing to safeguard global energy prices in return for the close alliance with a world superpower--amounted to a coherent, enduring fusion of Saudi foreign and energy policies during the whole of the Cold War era, and the brief period of American predominance that followed.
But time waits for no one. With the accession to power of King Salman a year ago, things began to change and quickly. His son and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has come to play a vital role in setting both the new Saudi foreign and energy policy. Now both planks of long-term Saudi analysis are increasingly open to analytical question, as Riyadh is increasingly pursuing a more assertive and independent foreign policy, at the same time as the country has gone its own way on energy issues. Western analysts, long used to yesterday’s truisms, have yet to intellectually catch up.
It is this slate of far-reaching economic programs designed to bolster Saudi Arabia in the new age that is the single most important initiative the government of King Salman could hope to undertake.
In the understandable rush to implement new policies fit for purpose in the dawning multipolar era, the new regime does have an important contradiction to overcome. For all the newfound friction with a Washington wishing to play a more passive role in the Middle East, there remains absolutely no doubt that ties with America remain central to both Saudi security and foreign policy thinking. At the same time the new Saudi energy policy is explicitly designed to ensure and enhance Riyadh’s energy market share. The problem is that one of the new contenders to Saudi energy dominance is the dramatic rise of American shale. It is difficult to see, over the long term, how a Saudi foreign policy focused on America as ally can co-exist with a Saudi energy policy explicitly designed to challenge the rise of America as a major energy producer.
Bold and energetic
But it is this intellectual conflict that has led to the most dramatic—and likely the most enduring—set of reforms yet instituted by the bold and energetic new leadership. For, amid Saudi efforts to ride out the storm that the collapse of global oil prices has caused, Prince Mohammad is about to implement far-reaching economic reforms, making a virtue of the newfound Saudi necessity. It is this slate of far-reaching economic programs designed to bolster Saudi Arabia in the new age that is the single most important initiative the government of King Salman could hope to undertake. For all the hoopla surrounding the meaningful changes in foreign and energy policy, it is by these new economic policies that history will judge the present regime.
And in a very real sense, the scope of the daring nature of Prince Mohammad is breath-taking, recalling in a very different context the heroic days of Margaret Thatcher. In a nod toward the market, the Saudi 2016 budget includes steep increases in the prices of petrol, electricity and water, though they do remain subsidized to a large extent. The Deputy Crown Prince has gone on the record, saying he is committed to new taxes (in an effort to bring stability to the country’s budget), vitally a VAT surcharge of five percent, as well as new levies on sugary drinks and cigarettes, and vacant land. All these dramatic steps to stabilize the country’s finances will be greatly welcomed by foreign investors, as they amount to a real effort to master a budget deficit that now amounts to 15% of GDP in 2015.
Most arrestingly, the Deputy Crown Prince has talked openly about the partial privatization of Aramco, the jewel in the crown of the Saudi energy empire. This could amount to the new big economic event on the planet, as Aramco is among the biggest and most important companies in the world.
The Deputy Crown Prince signals that the state wants to retain overall control of the company, while allowing the private sector a possible minority stake that would expose Aramco to the rigors of the market, enabling it to better compete around the world. If this were to happen, the proposed Saudi economic reforms would amount to a historical sea of change, the first major definitive good news in a region crying out for a new positive narrative. In such a case, the hopeful and dramatic first year of King Salman would be historically fulfilled.