LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
July 04/16
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletin16/english.july04.16.htm
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Bible Quotations For Today
Here is my servant, whom I have chosen, my beloved, with whom my soul is well pleased
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 12/14-21/:”But the Pharisees went out and conspired against him, how to destroy him. When Jesus became aware of this, he departed. Many crowds followed him, and he cured all of them, and he ordered them not to make him known. This was to fulfil what had been spoken through the prophet Isaiah: ‘Here is my servant, whom I have chosen, my beloved, with whom my soul is well pleased. I will put my Spirit upon him, and he will proclaim justice to the Gentiles. He will not wrangle or cry aloud, nor will anyone hear his voice in the streets. He will not break a bruised reed or quench a smouldering wick until he brings justice to victory. And in his name the Gentiles will hope.’
No condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus. For the law of the Spirit of life in Christ Jesus has set you free from the law of sin and of death
Letter to the Romans 08/01-11/:”There is therefore now no condemnation for those who are in Christ Jesus. For the law of the Spirit of life in Christ Jesus has set you free from the law of sin and of death. For God has done what the law, weakened by the flesh, could not do: by sending his own Son in the likeness of sinful flesh, and to deal with sin, he condemned sin in the flesh, so that the just requirement of the law might be fulfilled in us, who walk not according to the flesh but according to the Spirit. For those who live according to the flesh set their minds on the things of the flesh, but those who live according to the Spirit set their minds on the things of the Spirit. To set the mind on the flesh is death, but to set the mind on the Spirit is life and peace. For this reason the mind that is set on the flesh is hostile to God; it does not submit to God’s law indeed it cannot, and those who are in the flesh cannot please God. But you are not in the flesh; you are in the Spirit, since the Spirit of God dwells in you. Anyone who does not have the Spirit of Christ does not belong to him. But if Christ is in you, though the body is dead because of sin, the Spirit is life because of righteousness. If the Spirit of him who raised Jesus from the dead dwells in you, he who raised Christ from the dead will give life to your mortal bodies also through his Spirit that dwells in you.”
Pope Francis's Tweet For Today
True joy which is experienced in the family is not something random and
fortuitous, but normal and ongoing.
La joie véritable dont on fait l’expérience dans la famille n’est pas une chose
due à un hasard ou fortuite, mais fondée et stable.
إن الفرح الحقيقي الذي نختبره في الأسرة ليس عشوائيا وسريع الزوال، إنما هو راسخ
وثابت.
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials
from miscellaneous sources published on July 03-04/16
Nasrallah,
Hariri and the Saudi-Iran connection/The Arab Weekly/Mohamad Kawas/July 03/16
Can the Oil Market Help Bring About a Saudi-Iranian
Compromise/Middle East Briefing/July 03/16
After the SCO Summit and the Putin-Xi Jinping Meeting: Russia Confronts Economic
Opportunities and Pitfalls/Middle East Briefing/July 03/16
An Agenda for NATO in the Middle East/Middle East Briefing/July 03/16
Russia and the US Change their Policies on Syria/Middle East Briefing/July 03/16
Why Iranian Kurdish party is stepping up fight against Tehran/Mohammed A. Salih/Al-Monitor/July
03/16
IS turns its attention to Jordan/Aaron Magid/Al-Monitor/July 03/16
Targeting tourism to terrorize the world/Turki Aldakhil/Al Arabiya/July 03/16
Moving beyond Turkey’s apology, Russian rhetoric/Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/July
03/16
Iran’s regional project/Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/July 03/16
Noble Saudi politics/Mshari Al Thaydi/Al Arabiya/July 03/16
Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on
July 03-04/16
Hariri Hosted by Saudi King alongside Heads of States: Protocol or Political
Message?
Lebanese Soldier Accidentally Wounded in Sidon Shooting
Oil Exploration Decrees to be Reportedly Issued within Two Weeks
Reports: Aoun-Berri Meeting Won't Achieve Breakthrough despite New Presidency
Drive
Hizbullah Says It Killed IS Commander in al-Qaa Outskirts
Turkish Ship Arrives with Gaza Aid after Israeli Reconciliation Deal
Israel Condemns British Request for Livni 'War Crimes' Interview
Greek Ambassador: We ought to confront terrorists, prevent them from tampering
with country's security
Ogassapian to Future TV: Presidential crisis linked to Iran
Khalil: Dialog is key for settling political crises
Nazarian welcomes FPM, Amal agreement on oil file
Two Syrians wounded, ten arrested in a clash in Marjayoun
Young boy gets lost at sea, UNIFIL helicopter helps in search operations
Personal dispute erupts in Ersal
Nasrallah, Hariri and the Saudi-Iran connection
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 03-04/16
Canada condemns terrorist attacks in Baghdad
Death toll rises to 120 killed in Baghdad blasts
Bangladesh hostage-takers not ISIS-affiliated
Iran: ‘We won’t coordinate with US on Syria’
Iraqi PM’s convoy pelted with stones after deadly blasts hit Baghdad
Turkish ship with aid to Gaza arrives in Israel
Syrian refugees could ‘acquire Turkish nationality’
Israel’s Netanyahu seeks new allies in historic Africa trip
German spy chief can't rule out Istanbul-style attacks at home
Lavrov, Kerry have fresh exchange on Syrian conflict
Muslim man beaten outside Florida mosque attended by Orlando gunman
UAE warns against wearing traditional clothes abroad after US incident
Qaeda fighters kidnap US-backed rebel chief in Syria
Dr. Anouar Malek: No one can stop an Iranian or Syrian revolution
Political prisoner Ali Moezzi invites all to participate in “Free Iran”
gathering
Finnish MEP Petri Sarvamaa reiterates support for the cause of a free Iran
Italian MEP Patrizia Toia voices support for Maryam Rajavi’s campaign to free
Iran
Iranian union activist released from prison after more than two months on hunger
strike
‘Thug Life:’ Exposing Egypt’s disturbing revenge attack industry
Links From Jihad Watch Site for
July 03-04/16
Muslim mob of 5,000 screaming “Egypt is Islamic” attacks
Christians for building church
Libya: Islamic State abducting Christian women, making them sex slaves
Muslim leaves Islam because of moral teachings of Qur’an and Muhammad
Profs: Orlando massacre caused by ‘toxic masculinity,’ ‘extremist discourses’
UK: College and catering firm apologize after Muslim student bites into bacon
sandwich
Franciscan spokesman: “As allies of American Muslims it’s up to us to speak out
against Islamophobia”
Navy commander surrendered to Iran to protect Obama’s nuclear deal
Bangladesh jihad murderer was well educated and from rich family
The Leftist-Islamic Alliance Exposed — on The Glazov Gang
83 killed as Islamic State car bombs hit Ramadan crowds in Baghdad Shia areas
Reading the Qur’an during Ramadan 29: Juz Tabaraka Alladhi
Malaysia: Muslim/Christian interfaith event cancelled after threat to
participating Christians
“Moderate” Malaysia: Mosque official fired for allowing non-Muslim into prayer
hall
Hugh Fitzgerald: Pass/Fail in Bangladesh
July 03-04/16
Hariri Hosted by Saudi King
alongside Heads of States: Protocol or Political Message?
Naharnet/July 03/16/Al-Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri was hosted
Saturday evening by Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz at Mecca's al-Safa Palace
at an iftar banquet that was attended by the presidents of Afghanistan and Gabon
and several senior Saudi princes and officials, Hariri's office said. Hariri had
left Beirut aboard his private jet in the afternoon. “King Salman's hosting of
ex-PM Hariri alongside heads of states reflects the Saudi leadership's approach
towards Hariri's role and his political position and reflects the appreciation
that the kingdom has for Hariri,” sources close to al-Mustaqbal have said.
Anti-Hariri sources have meanwhile said that the trip is “nothing but a protocol
visit” that takes place every year during the holy month of Ramadan. “It does
not carry any political indications and it therefore cannot be part of the
solutions that Hariri is looking for regarding his political and financial
problems,” the sources said.
Lebanese Soldier Accidentally
Wounded in Sidon Shooting
Naharnet/July 03/16/A soldier was accidentally wounded as a dispute between two
men erupted into gunfire in the southern city of Sidon on Sunday, media reports
said. “A personal dispute between two men from the Batakji family erupted into
gunfire at the al-Amercan roundabout, which resulted in the accidental wounding
of a third person,” state-run National News Agency reported. “The army
intervened immediately and arrested the shooter,” NNA added. Al-Jadeed
television meanwhile said that the wounded person is a soldier.
Oil Exploration Decrees to be
Reportedly Issued within Two Weeks
Naharnet/July 03/16/Executive decrees for offshore oil and gas exploration will
be issued within two weeks, the Kuwaiti al-Anbaa newspaper reported on Sunday.
“An agreement has been reached on issuing the oil law's executive decrees within
two weeks so that a call for tenders can be organized,” the daily said. “In
addition to these decrees, the parliament must issue a law specifying the taxes
that will be slapped on the bidding oil firms or else no global company would
submit a tender, which would raise the problem of holding a legislative session
for parliament, although Speaker Nabih Berri has reassured about the possibility
of holding such a session,” al-Anbaa added. “The ball is now in the court of
Prime Minister Tammam Salam, who must convene the relevant ministerial committee
and later put the issue on the cabinet's agenda in order to pass the needed
decrees,” the newspaper said. The report comes after Free Patriotic Movement and
the AMAL Movement officials met in Ain al-Tineh and announced that they have
settled their disputes over the excavation of Lebanon’s offshore oil and gas
reserves. The disagreement between the two parties has hindered agreements on
energy extraction for years. Lebanon and Israel are bickering over a zone that
consists of about 854 square kilometers and suspected energy reserves that could
generate billions of dollars. Lebanon has been slow to exploit its maritime
resources compared with other eastern Mediterranean countries. Israel, Cyprus
and Turkey are all much more advanced in drilling for oil and gas. In March
2010, the US Geological Survey estimated a mean of 1.7 billion barrels of
recoverable oil and a mean of 34.5 trillion cubic meters of recoverable gas in
the Levant Basin in the eastern Mediterranean, which includes the territorial
waters of Lebanon, Israel, Syria and Cyprus. In August 2014, the government
postponed for the fifth time the first round of licensing for gas exploration
over a political dispute. The disagreements were over the designation of blocks
open for bidding and the terms of a draft exploration agreement. Lebanese
officials have continuously warned that Israel's exploration of new offshore gas
fields near Lebanese territorial waters means Israel is siphoning some of
Lebanon's crude oil. Lebanon argues that a maritime map it submitted to the UN
is in line with an armistice accord drawn up in 1949, an agreement which is not
contested by Israel.
Reports: Aoun-Berri Meeting Won't Achieve Breakthrough despite New Presidency
Drive
Naharnet/July 03/16/The latest rapprochement between the Free Patriotic Movement
and the AMAL Movement might lead to a meeting between FPM founder MP Michel Aoun
and Speaker Nabih Berri but not to a “breakthrough” in the presidential void
crisis, although there are renewed political efforts to reach an agreement on
the presidency, media reports said Sunday. “The agreement between Speaker Nabih
Berri and (Foreign) Minister Jebran Bassil is expected to pave the way for a
meeting with General Michel Aoun, but that does not mean that a breakthrough
will be made in the presidential crisis,” An Nahar newspaper quoted sources
close to Berri as saying. The sources also poured cold water on upbeat
assessments by “Aoun's supporters” who are “suggesting that the rapprochement
will pave the way for an August presidential deal.”Informed political sources
meanwhile told the Kuwaiti al-Anbaa newspaper that the Bassil-Berri meeting is
“an FPM attempt to appease Berri, who holds sway over the presidential vote
sessions.”Also part of the renewed impetus to reach an agreement on the
presidency are the latest three-hour meeting between al-Mustaqbal Movement
leader ex-PM Saad Hariri and Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea and the meeting
that was held at MP Nehme Tohme's house between Geagea and Progressive Socialist
Party leader MP Walid Jumblat, the sources said. Lebanese political sources
meanwhile told the newspaper that “a solution for the presidential crisis is in
the making,” citing the “Berri-Bassil and Jumblat-Geagea meetings.” Lebanon has
been without a president since the term of Michel Suleiman ended in May 2014 and
Hizbullah, the FPM and some of their allies have been boycotting the electoral
sessions at parliament, stripping them of the needed quorum. Hariri, who is
close to Saudi Arabia, launched an initiative in late 2015 to nominate Marada
Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency but his proposal was met
with reservations from the country's main Christian parties as well as Hizbullah.
Hariri's move was followed by Geagea's endorsement of his long-time Christian
foe Aoun for the presidency after a rapprochement deal was reached between their
two parties. The supporters of Aoun's presidential bid argue that he is more
eligible than Franjieh to become president due to the size of his parliamentary
bloc and his bigger influence in the Christian community.
Hizbullah Says It Killed IS
Commander in al-Qaa Outskirts
Associated Press/Naharnet/July 03/16/Hizbullah announced overnight that it has
managed to kill the Islamic State military commander for the al-Qaa border
region, where eight suicide bombings killed five people and wounded 28 others
earlier this week. Hizbullah's television al-Manar said the group, which shares
security responsibilities with the Lebanese Army in areas along the eastern
border with Syria, killed a commander known as Abu Khatab in a rocket attack.The
army did not release any comment. Hizbullah has blamed al-Qaa's attacks on IS.
Violence from neighboring Syria's civil war has spilled across the border in the
past. Islamic State and al-Nusra Front militants briefly seized the Lebanese
border town of Arsal in 2014, before security forces pushed them back across the
frontier.
Turkish Ship Arrives with
Gaza Aid after Israeli Reconciliation Deal
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 03/16/A Turkish ship carrying aid for Gaza
arrived in Israel Sunday, a week after the two countries agreed to restore ties
that soured over a deadly raid on an aid flotilla. The Lady Leyla container
vessel docked at Ashdod port in the afternoon after departing on Friday, an AFP
journalist reported. Its contents were to be unloaded, inspected and sent on to
the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, hit by three wars with Israel since 2008 and under an
Israeli blockade.The Panama-flagged ship was carrying 11,000 tonnes of supplies
including food packages, flour, rice, sugar and toys, the Turkish state-run
Anadolu news agency reported. Turkey had initially pushed for a lifting of
Israel's blockade on Gaza as part of the negotiations to normalize ties, but
Israel rejected this. A compromise was eventually reached allowing Turkey to
send aid through Ashdod rather than directly to the Palestinian enclave. Israel
says the blockade is necessary to prevent Islamist movement Hamas from receiving
materials that could be used for military purposes, but UN officials have called
for it to be lifted, citing deteriorating conditions in the territory. Turkey's
ruling Islamic-rooted AKP party has friendly ties with Gaza's Hamas rulers, and
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a vocal supporter of the Palestinian
cause. Turkey and Israel were formerly close regional allies, but fell out in
2010 when Israeli commandos killed 10 Turkish activists in a raid on an aid
flotilla seeking to run the blockade on Gaza. Under the reconciliation deal,
Israel will pay $20 million in compensation to the families of those killed.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promoted the economic benefits of
restoring ties, with talk of building a pipeline to Turkey to export Israeli
gas, and the need to find allies in the turbulent Middle East. The deal received
a mixed response in Israel. There were allegations that it does not do enough to
push for the return of four Israelis missing in Gaza -- two soldiers who have
been declared dead and two civilians believed to be alive and held by Hamas.
Several relatives and supporters of the soldiers' families protested against the
deal outside Ashdod port on Sunday.
Israel Condemns British
Request for Livni 'War Crimes' Interview
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/July 03/16/Israel on Sunday condemned a request
from British police to interview ex-foreign minister Tzipi Livni, reportedly
over suspicions of war crimes in the 2008-2009 Gaza conflict. Israel's foreign
ministry said in a statement that it viewed the request "with great concern."
"We would have expected different behavior from a close ally such as the UK," it
said in a statement. The reaction came after Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported
that Livni had received a request last week for an interview from Scotland
Yard's war crimes unit ahead of her visit to London for a conference. The
interview was said to be related to Israel's 2008-2009 war against Palestinian
militants in the Gaza Strip at a time when Livni was foreign minister. The
request was canceled after diplomatic contacts between Israel and Britain,
Haaretz reported. Livni, currently an opposition member of parliament, has also
been granted special diplomatic immunity in response, it said. The interview was
to be on a voluntary basis, the newspaper reported. Contacted by AFP, Scotland
Yard refused to confirm or deny the identities of people they have been seeking
to question, while Livni's spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.
The 22-day Gaza operation included a massive air assault to halt rocket attacks
by Palestinian militants. It cost the lives of 1,440 Palestinians, mainly
civilians, and 13 Israelis, 10 of them soldiers. In 2009, a British court issued
an arrest warrant for Livni after Palestinian activists made an application over
her role as foreign minister during the conflict. Britain sought to soothe
strained ties with Israel the following year by publishing an amendment to a law
that put visiting officials at risk of arrest for alleged war crimes. The change
was to ensure that private arrest warrants for offenses under certain
international laws, including the Geneva Convention, would first have to be
approved by the chief prosecutor.
Greek Ambassador: We ought to
confront terrorists, prevent them from tampering with country's security
Sun 03 Jul 2016/NNA - Greek Ambassador to Beirut, Theodore Passas, considered on
Sunday that "the region is going through difficult circumstances," adding that
"we ought to face terrorists and prevent them from tampering with the country's
security."The Ambassador's words came during a reception held in his honor by
Greek Orthodox Metropolitan Bishop in Akkar, Basilios Mansour, at the residence
of former Vice Premier Issam Fares, in presence of several prominent dignitaries
and officials. "We, in Greece, have been suffering tight economic conditions in
the recent years, but I must tell you that the only thing that enabled us to
remain steadfast is the family, the concept of the family, and the church, which
has always stood by citizens," Passas added. He hoped that "peace would prevail
in the region, despite the hard times," noting that "we have to really believe
in our joint prayers raised to the Lord for peace and security to persist in
this country.""We must always remain united, regardless of religion or
affiliations, so that we can defeat terrorism," emphasized Passas. He praised
herein the efforts exerted by the Lebanese Army and security forces for the sake
of preserving security and stability in Lebanon.
Ogassapian to Future TV:
Presidential crisis linked to Iran
Sun 03 Jul 2016/NNA - Future bloc member, Deputy Jean Ogassapian, told Future TV
on Sunday that the oil file has no impact whatsoever on presidential elections
and does not alter the positions of key forces towards it; noting that this
crisis is a regional issue subject to Iran’s decisions. He pointed out that the
meeting between House Speaker Nabih Berri and MP Michel Aoun might have a lot of
pros and may solve outstanding issues resulting from the constitutional
institutions’ irregular work. He wished the cabinet would be able to reach an
understanding and approve the two decrees related to oil file with the governing
body of the oil sector assuming its role in this regard.
Khalil: Dialog is key for
settling political crises
Sun 03 Jul 2016/NNA - Minister of Finance, Ali Hassan Khalil, said during a
funeral ceremony in south Lebanon, that dialog is the key to solving all
political crises. The Minister added that Lebanon is in the eye of the storm of
terrorism, which most recently struck the Bekaa village of Qaa; however, unified
national discourse gives the Lebanese the capacity to confront these terrorist
groups that do no exclude anyone from their crimes. National responsibility,
according to Khalil, required that all Lebanese rally around political, security
and military institutions in order to face challenges.Concerning the electoral
law, the Minister said that it was people's right to be heard.
Nazarian welcomes FPM, Amal agreement on oil file
Sun 03 Jul 2016/NNA - Minister of Energy, Arthur Nazarian, lauded in a statement
on Sunday the agreement reached between the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) and
Amal Movement over the oil exploration issue, after a period of disagreement
between the two over the subcontracting of marine blocks.Nazarian wished up on
all sides in Cabinet to facilitate adoption of decrees in order for work to
start.
Two Syrians wounded, ten
arrested in a clash in Marjayoun
Sun 03 Jul 2016/NNA - A clash occurred Sunday evening between two Lebanese
citizens and other Syrians in the area of al-Ahmadiah in Marjayoun, which led to
the injury of 2 Syrians who were taken to Marjayoun Hospital for treatment while
10 others were arrested for investigation, NNA correspondent reported.
Young boy gets lost at sea,
UNIFIL helicopter helps in search operations
Sun 03 Jul 2016/NNA - A young man, Abed Kh. Fandi, got lost at sea on Sunday
morning as he was swimming offshore facing the area of al-Jamal in Tyre, NNA
correspondent reported
Personal dispute erupts in
Ersal
Sun 03 Jul 2016/NNA - A dispute erupted in Ersal between Hassan Ezzedine, Wael
Dib Rayed, and Hussein Abdel Nasr Rayed; it soon developed into a shootout, NNA
correspondent reported on Sunday.
Nasrallah,
Hariri and the Saudi-Iran connection
The Arab Weekly/Mohamad Kawas/July 03/16
BEIRUT - Lebanese former prime minister and prominent Sunni leader Rafik Hariri
said Hezbollah’s admission that it was funded by Iran showed the powerful Shia
militia owed more loyalty to the Islamic Republic and its Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei than it did to the interests of the people of Lebanon.The war of words between Hariri, leader of the Future Movement, and Hezbollah
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah reflects the regional rivalry between the
biggest Shia power, Iran, and the major Sunni power, Saudi Arabia.
Iran and Hezbollah have both sent forces to shore up the rule of Syrian
President Bashar Assad, while Saudi Arabia supports Sunni rebel forces trying to
topple him. The Islamic Republic and Saudi kingdom also back opposing sides in
the conflict in Yemen, leading some analysts to talk of a regional proxy war
between the two leading Sunni and Shia powers.
While it was common knowledge that Lebanon’s Hezbollah was funded by Iran, the
powerful militia, listed by Washington as a terrorist group, had not admitted so
before. However, new US sanctions blocking Hezbollah’s access to banking
prompted Nasrallah to boast his group “will not be affected” by any fresh
sanctions.
“We do not have any business projects or investments via banks,” he said in a
broadcast speech. “We are open about the fact that Hezbollah’s budget, its
income, its expenses, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and rockets,
come from the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
The surprise admission could be an attempt to change the narrative and transform
the conflict from one between Washington and Hezbollah to Washington and Iran.
Hezbollah opponents questioned how Tehran was funding the group, given that it
has no access to Lebanon’s banking sector under the new sanctions. Security
officials at Beirut-Rafik Hariri International Airport stressed it was unlikely
Hezbollah was receiving money directly from Iran via international flights,
given the high level of security at the airport.
The open land route from Beirut and Damascus, however, means that money could
easily be transferred across the Syrian-Lebanese border.
Hariri accused Nasrallah of putting Iran before the interests of Lebanon where
a deadlock between rival blocs dominated by the two leaders resulted in
political stalemate in which even small decisions cannot be made and parliament
has failed to elect a president for more than two years.Nasrallah, Hariri said in a speech, “is someone who boasts about being an
advanced military base for Iran and that all his funds and rockets come from
the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, this means that he is an Iranian party
par excellence and that he is a part of Tehran’s political, religious and
military project.
“It also means that he views orders from the Iranian supreme leader as more
important than the interests of Lebanon and the Arab world.”
Despite the accusation, Hariri’s speech was a tacit admission of Lebanon’s
powerlessness against Hezbollah, which has a more powerful armed force than the
Lebanese Army.
Observers said Hariri’s speech represented a declaration that Lebanon is under
de facto foreign occupation and a call for the international community to
acknowledge it. There is even a view that Hariri’s comments could be a prelude
for legal or diplomatic action against Hezbollah and Iran.
Some Saudi analysts said Hariri is serving as Riyadh’s mouthpiece against
Nasrallah and Iran, particularly given Saudi Arabia’s role in opposing and
resisting any Iranian military influence in Arab countries. Indeed, Hariri went
so far as to accuse Tehran of being responsible for the chaos in the Middle
East.
“Iran is funding Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq,
the Houthis in Yemen and the opposition in Bahrain. It is supporting the killing
of innocents in Syria, funding terrorist attacks in Kuwait and chaos in Saudi
Arabia’s Eastern province, as well as sectarian groups in Sudan, Egypt and
Algeria,” he said.
“In short, Iran is supporting fitna in the Arab world,” Hariri said, using an
Arabic term that denotes religious conflict.
Thus, Hariri was not only defending Saudi Arabia’s position and accusing Iran
of being the cause of the ills of Lebanon and the Arab world, but also calling
for Hezbollah to be dealt with as a subsidiary of Iran with no decision-making
power of its own.
Many people are wondering whether Beirut has become a platform for debate and
exchanging messages between Saudi Arabia and Iran, while there are questions
about the feasibility of continuing dialogue between Hezbollah and Hariri’s
Future Movement given the sharp divisions between the two.
Following terrorist attacks in Lebanon, this division can only be expected to
sharpen with Hezbollah claiming that this justifies its involvement in Syria
and the Future Movement saying the attacks are the direct result of Hezbollah’s
unwanted involvement there.
**Mohamad Kawas is a Lebanese writer.
Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on July 03-04/16
Canada condemns terrorist attacks in
Baghdad
July 3, 2016 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the
following statement:
“Canada strongly condemns the attacks that killed dozens of innocent Iraqis in
the streets of Baghdad last night as they were getting ready to celebrate Iftar.
“Once again, the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant [ISIL]
demonstrates its complete disregard for human life and for Islam, a religion of
peace that fosters the respect and promotion of human life.
“These savage attacks occurred during one of the last holy evenings of the month
of Ramadan, as people were preparing for Eid. Iraqis of all faiths and
backgrounds deserve to live in peace, free from violence and oppression.
“On behalf of the Government of Canada, I offer my sincere condolences to the
families and friends of the victims.
“Canada is committed to the fight against ISIL and to promoting and building
stability in the region as part of the strategy announced by Prime Minister
Trudeau on February 8, 2016.”
Death toll rises to
120 killed in Baghdad blasts
AP, Baghdad Sunday, 3 July 2016/At least 119 people were killed Sunday in two
bombings in the Iraqi capital, including a large-scale attack claimed by ISIS
that killed 86 people - among them 15 children - in a central shopping district,
officials said. The bombings demonstrated the extremists’ ability to mount
significant attacks despite major battlefield losses, including the city of
Fallujah, which was declared “fully liberated” from ISIS just over a week ago.
In the deadliest attack, a car bomb hit Karada, a busy shopping district in the
center of Baghdad, killing 86 people and wounding 170, according to police and
hospital officials. It struck as families and young people were out on the
streets after breaking their daylight fast for the holy month of Ramadan. ISIS
claimed responsibility for the bombing in a statement posted online, saying they
had deliberately targeted Shiite Muslims. The statement could not be
independently verified. At dawn Sunday, fire fighters were still working to
extinguish the blazes and bodies were still being recovered from charred
buildings. Many of the dead were children, according to Associated Press
reporters at the scene. Ambulances could be heard rushing to the site for hours
after the blast. An eyewitness said the explosion caused fires at nearby
clothing and cellphone shops. Hours after the bombing, Iraq's prime minister
visited the blast site. Video footage uploaded to social media showed an angry
crowd, with people calling Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi a "thief" and shouting
at his convoy.
Also watch: Iraqi PM’s convoy pelted with stones after deadly blasts hit
Baghdad. In the second attack, an improvised explosive device went off in
eastern Baghdad, killing 5 people and wounding 16. No group claimed
responsibility for the attack. The casualty figures were confirmed by police and
hospital officials, who spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to
release information to the press. The Baghdad attacks come just over a week
after Iraqi forces declared the city of Fallujah "fully liberated" from ISIS.
Over the past year, Iraqi forces have racked up territorial gains against ISIS,
retaking the city of Ramadi and the towns of Hit and Rutba, all in Iraq's vast
Anbar province west of Baghdad. Despite the government's battlefield victories,
ISIS has repeatedly shown it remains capable of launching attacks far from the
front-lines. Before the launch of the operation to retake Fallujah, Iraq's prime
minister was facing growing social unrest and anti-government protests in
Baghdad sparked in part by popular anger at the lack of security in the capital.
In one month, Baghdad's highly-fortified Green Zone - which houses government
buildings and diplomatic missions - was stormed twice by anti-government
protesters. ISIS still controls Iraq's second largest city of Mosul as well as
significant patches of territory in the country's north and west. At the height
of the extremist group's power in 2014, ISIS rendered nearly a third of the
country out of government control. Now, the militants are estimated to control
only 14 percent of Iraqi territory, according to the office of Iraq's prime
minister. Meanwhile, the US State Department on Sunday extended condolences to
the victims of two bombings overnight in Baghdad and condemned acts of extremist
violence.“We are in close contact with Iraqi authorities, and stand committed to
supporting Iraqi security forces,” read the statement from spokesman John Kirby.
Bangladesh hostage-takers not
ISIS-affiliated
AFP, Kabul Sunday, 3 July 2016/The militants who slaughtered 20 hostages at a
Dhaka restaurant were members of a homegrown Bangladeshi militant outfit and not
followers of ISIS, a senior minister said Sunday. “They are members of the
Jamaeytul Mujahdeen Bangladesh,” Minister of Home Affairs Asaduzzaman Khan told
AFP, referring to a group which has been banned in Bangladesh for more than a
decade. “They have no connections with ISIS.” ISIS has claimed responsibility
for the killing of the hostages and two police officers during an 11-hour siege
that ended on Saturday but the government has consistently denied that
international extremist groups are operating in Bangladesh. Police have released
the names and photos of six of the attackers who were shot at the end of the
siege. A seventh was arrested and is being interrogated by Bangladeshi
intelligence officers. Khan said that all of the attackers were well-educated
and most came from wealthy families. “They are all highly educated young men and
went to university. No one is from a madrassa,” the minister said. Asked why
they would have become Islamist militants, Khan said: “It has become a fashion.”
Iran: ‘We won’t coordinate with US
on Syria’
Agencies Sunday, 3 July 2016/Iran will never coordinate with the United States
in Syria and other regional conflicts, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
said in remarks published on his website Sunday after US-backed forces struggled
to advance in ISIS stronghold of Manbij in Syria. “We don’t want such a
coordination as their main objective is to stop Iran’s presence in the region,”
Khamenei said in a transcript from a speech to university students. Iran and
Russia support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s fight against armed rebels and
jihadists, including those of ISIS. Tehran rejects any coordination with the
US-led coalition that is also bombing the jihadists in Syria and Iraq. Khamenei
repeated demands for the US to stop interfering in the region and said
Washington was still acting aggressively despite last year’s nuclear accord with
world powers to end Iran's isolation. “Americans are still engaged in hostility
against the nation of Iran, be it the Congress or the US administration,” he
said. Iran complains it has not benefited from the nuclear deal since it came
into force in January, with international banks still fearful of doing business
with Tehran due to remaining US sanctions. “Those who believe in looking to the
West for the progress of the country have lost their minds because wisdom tells
us to learn from experience,” Khamenei said.
ISIS repels Syrian rebels
Meanwhile, ISIS militants on Saturday pushed back US-backed forces trying to
advance into their stronghold of Manbij for the first time since a major
offensive to capture the city and cut off the militants’ main strategic access
route to Turkey, a monitoring group and Kurdish sources said. The Syria
Democratic Forces (SDF), comprised of Kurdish and Arab fighters and backed by
the air power of a US-led coalition to fight ISIS and aided by US Special
Forces, have been involved in the month-long Manbij operation aimed to seal off
their last stretch of Syrian-Turkish frontier. The British-based Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights confirmed the militants had evicted SDF troops from
a main district south of the city which has been the scene of heavy fighting
after suicide bombers blew up an explosive-laden car. The militants also
recaptured a village northwest of the city.
An SDF spokesman, however, denied reports they had pulled back from positions
inside the city and said the campaign to uproot the militants would continue
until they “liberated Manbij.” “I stress that we have not retreated any step and
all our positions are under our control,” Sharfan Darwish, spokesman for the SDF-allied
Manbij Military Council, said in a statement. The US-backed forces have been
bogged down in fighting in the northern and southern outskirts of the city after
rapid advances that began with the capture of dozens of villages around the city
until they surrounded it from all sides. Progress in storming the city has been
slow with the militants using snipers, planting mines and preventing civilians
from leaving, hampering US airpower’s ability to bomb the city without causing
large casualties, Kurdish sources said. Fighting was mainly focused near a major
grain silo complex south of the city that had been hit by US-led coalition jets.
Manbij’s loss would be a big blow to the militants as it is of strategic
importance, serving as a conduit for transit of foreign extremists and
provisions coming from the Turkish border. Brett McGurk, US President Barack
Obama’s special envoy in the fight against ISIS, said on Tuesday once the
operation in northern Syria is completed, it would create the conditions to move
on the militant group’s de facto capital of Raqqa. US officials have anticipated
a tough battle ahead. The Manbij operation marks the most ambitious advance by a
group allied to Washington in Syria since the United States launched its
military campaign against ISIS two years ago. (With AFP, Reuters)
Iraqi PM’s convoy pelted with stones
after deadly blasts hit Baghdad
Agencies Sunday, 3 July 2016/A convoy carrying Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi
who had come to tour the site of the deadly bombings was pelted with stones and
bottles by residents, angry at what they felt were false promises of better
security. A refrigerator truck packed with explosives blew up in the central
district of Karrada, killing 91 people and injuring at least 200. ISIS claimed
responsibility for the attack in a statement circulated online by supporters of
the ultra-hard line Sunni group. It said the blast was a suicide bombing. Video
footage uploaded to social media showed the angry crowd, with people calling
Abadi a “thief” and shouting at his convoy. Eyewitness said the crowd pelted
Abadi’s car with rocks, shoes and jerry cans. Karrada was busy at the time as
Iraqis eat out and shop late during the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which
ends next week with the Eid al-Fitr festival. Another video posted on social
media showed a large blaze in the main street of Karrada, a largely Shiite
district with a small Christian community and a few Sunni mosques. Reuters TV
footage taken in the morning showed at least four buildings severely damaged or
partly collapsed, including a shopping mall believed to be the target, and
gutted cars scattered all around. The toll climbed during the day as rescuers
pulled out more bodies from under the rubble and people succumbed from their
injuries.
Until the government launched its Fallujah operation, the prime minister had
faced growing social unrest and anti-government protests sparked, in part, by
popular anger at the lack of security in the capital. In one month, Baghdad’s
highly-fortified Green Zone - which houses government buildings and diplomatic
missions - was stormed twice by anti-government protesters. In Karada civilians
expressed their frustration at the government’s failure to secure the capital.
“We are in a state of war, and these places are targeted. The security can’t
focus on the war (against IS) and forget Baghdad,” Sami, the street vendor,
said.
The UN envoy for Iraq, Jan Kubis, described the Karada attack as “a cowardly and
heinous act of unparalleled proportions” and urged the Iraqi government to
redouble its security efforts to protect Iraqis during celebrations for the Eid
al-Fitr holiday, which marks the end of Ramadan. (With Reuters, AP)
Turkish ship with aid to Gaza
arrives in Israel
AP, Istanbul Sunday, 3 July 2016/Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency says a ship
carrying over 10,000 tons of humanitarian aid for the Gaza Strip has reached the
Israeli port of Ashdod. The vessel Lady Leyla set sail late Friday from the
Turkish city Mersin. Anadolu said Sunday it docked in Ashdod after a 35-hour
journey. The ship is carrying food, toys, clothes and shoes, according to
Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority. The delivery comes before
the start of Eid al-Fitr, one of Islam’s major holidays. A six-year political
fissure between Turkey and Israel ended last week when the two countries agreed
to normalize ties. Relations had imploded in 2010 after an Israeli naval raid
killed nine Turks on board an aid ship trying to breach Israel’s blockade of the
Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.
Syrian refugees could ‘acquire
Turkish nationality’
AFP, Ankara Sunday, 3 July 2016/Syrian refugees living in Turkey could
eventually be granted Turkish citizenship, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has
signaled, a plan that has sparked controversy at home. “I want to announce some
good news,” media quoted Erdogan as saying late Saturday at a dinner to break
the Ramadan fast in Kilis province, on the Syrian border. “We are going to help
our Syrian friends in offering them the chance, if they want it, to acquire
Turkish nationality.”The interior ministry will shortly announce how the
citizenship procedure would work, Erdogan said. He did not specify whether all
of the 2.7 million Syrians that Turkey is hosting would be able to apply, and
gave no details on eligibility criteria or how long the process would take. “We
regard you as our brothers and sisters -- you are not far from your homeland,
but only from your homes and your land,” Erdogan told a group of Syrian refugees
in Kilis.“Turkey is also your homeland.”Ankara has refused to grant refugee
status to Syrians who have fled the devastating war across the border since
2011, referring to them as “guests.”Only a select group have been granted work
permits and residency. The country’s open-door policy to Syrian refugees was
initially a source of pride for many Turks. But more and more have come to
resent the new arrivals, seeing them as a drain on state resources and rivals
for scarce jobs. In Kilis, where Erdogan spoke, refugees now outnumber the
native Turkish population.
Life is a struggle for most Syrians in Turkey, who mainly live off odd jobs that
are often insufficient to feed and house a family. The country is also hosting
some 300,000 Iraqis who have fled ISIS. Erdogan’s announcement sparked fierce
debate on social media, with many Turkish web users questioning whether it was a
good idea. “Granting citizenship shouldn’t depend on what one person wants. We
need a referendum!” wrote Mahomet Mahomet on Twitter. The hashtag #ulkemdeSuriyeliistemiyorum
(“I don’t want Syrians in my country”) trended on Twitter, though some users
denounced the reaction as racist.
“The reaction is racist pure and simple -- before everything else we need a
measured response,” tweeted Omer Sloukas. Some critics suggested the move might
be a bid by Erdogan to register an army of thankful Syrian voters who might back
his plans to boost his presidential powers. The Turkish strongman is accused of
increasing authoritarianism since he came into power as 2002 as prime minister
becoming the country’s first directly-elected president two years ago. He is
seeking to change the constitution to give Turkey a presidential system, a
proposal that has prompted staunch criticism from the parliamentary opposition.
To achieve his goal, he would need a three-fifths majority in parliament to call
a referendum on the issue, or a two-thirds majority for direct approval.
Israel’s Netanyahu seeks new allies
in historic Africa trip
AP, Jerusalem Sunday, 3 July 2016/Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heads to
Africa this week, where Israel has found much-needed partners in the battle
against Islamic militants and allies in countering the rising Palestinian
influence at the United Nations. Netanyahu will also visit the site where his
brother was killed in a 1976 military raid on a hijacked airliner in Uganda, a
seminal event that helped cement his hardline ideology. Israel is hoping that
the visit - the first by an Israeli premier to sub-Saharan Africa in three
decades - will usher in a new era in which it provides African states with
security and agricultural assistance in return for support in international
forums. Israel has a long history of involvement in Africa, sending experts in
agriculture and development, as well as military advisers and mercenaries, over
the years. Netanyahu’s visit caps a budding rapprochement in recent years
initiated by Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who, as foreign minister a few
years ago, toured the continent on two occasions after no Israeli foreign
minister had visited in two decades. In turn, dozens of African dignitaries have
visited Israel in recent years, including Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and
Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf. Dore Gold, a senior Israeli diplomat,
traveled to South Africa in March, hoping to mend ties with a country that is
strongly supportive of the Palestinian quest for statehood. “Israel is coming
back to Africa; Africa is coming back to Israel. It’s happening in a big way,”
Netanyahu told African ambassadors at the launch February of the Israeli
parliament's caucus for Israel-Africa relations. Netanyahu said last month he
will seek government approval for a $13 million plan to strengthen economic ties
and cooperation with African countries.Israel played a prominent role in
assisting newly independent African countries in the 1960s, but those relations
crumbled in the 1970s, when Arab countries, promising aid, pressured African
nations to limit or cut ties with Israel. African states were also opposed to
Israel's close ties to South Africa’s apartheid government.
With the rise of jihadism across the continent, from Boko Haram in Nigeria to
al-Qaida-linked al-Shabab militants in Somalia, Israel has found common ground
with countries like Kenya, Uganda and Nigeria.
“Any victory of radical Islam in any part of Africa immediately impacts us,”
said Avi Granot, the former head of the Israeli Foreign Ministry's Africa
division. "The more defeats (militants) face, whether it is in Nigeria,
Cameroon, Somalia or Chad, then it's a victory also for the Middle East."While
Israeli military exports to Africa are limited, it provides several countries
with security training and assistance. Granot cited Israel's deployment of a
team of security experts following the 2013 al-Shabab attack on a Nairobi mall.
He said Israel, with its vast experience fighting militants, could continue to
offer training on terror prevention. Israeli defense officials say intelligence
sharing is limited to a few close allies for now. Israel has military ties with
several African countries, and Israel's Defense Ministry has given clearance for
private Israeli security firms to operate in some nations, including some arms
sales. In exchange for its expertise in security and other fields, Israel wants
African states to side with it at the U.N., where the General Assembly
overwhelmingly recognized Palestine as a nonmember observer state in 2012. The
Palestinians have used their upgraded status to launch a diplomatic offensive
against Israel and its occupation of lands where the Palestinians hope to
establish a future state. "We're talking about some 45 countries in sub-Saharan
Africa who vote in one bloc at the U.N.," said Arye Oded, a former Israeli
diplomat and expert on Africa. "Netanyahu wants to improve relations with these
countries ... and wants more countries to not vote against us at the U.N."
Granot said African countries may be responsive to supporting Israel because the
Palestinian cause is “tangential” to them. One example of that came during
Kenyatta’s trip, when he angered the Palestinians by visiting a Jewish
settlement in the West Bank. The Palestinians and virtually the entire
international community view the settlements as illegal or illegitimate.
Yoram Elron, the head of the Israeli foreign ministry’s Africa division, said an
increasing number of African countries “understand that Israel is being singled
out in the international fora.”Jamal Dajani, the Palestinian government
spokesman, said he believed African states would see through Netanyahu’s
“propaganda” because Africans and the Palestinians share a history of
“occupations and colonialism.”Netanyahu departs Monday, and will spend a total
of four days in the east African nations of Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia.
In Uganda, a ceremony is planned to mark the 40th anniversary of the July 1976
operation that freed Israeli hostages from a hijacked plane at Entebbe.
Netanyahu's brother Yonatan, the leader of the commando unit that led the raid,
was shot dead as he was helping the Israeli hostages who had been held inside
the airport's old terminal back onto the plane. His death made Yonatan an
Israeli hero, and thrust Netanyahu toward public life. “It changed his life 180
degrees,” said Nahum Barnea, Israel’s pre-eminent political columnist, adding
that Netanyahu has also derived political capital from his brother's death. “The
images from the airport will make Israelis think that Yoni and Bibi are the same
thing,” he said, referring to the Netanyahu brothers by their nicknames. “The
outcome will be (the impression that) Netanyahu is linked to victory. Netanyahu
is linked to military success.”
German spy chief can't rule out
Istanbul-style attacks at home
Reuters Sunday, 3 July 2016/The biggest security threat for Germany and events
like the shooting and bombing in Istanbul this week could happen in Germany, the
head of the domestic intelligence agency (BfV) told a Saturday newspaper. Three
suspected Islamic State suicide bombers killed 44 people at Istanbul’s main
airport on Tuesday, the deadliest in a string of attacks in Turkey this year.
“We can’t rule out attacks like those in Istanbul also happening in our
country,” Hans-Georg Maassen told German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine
Zeitung. He said military defeats for ISIS were not demoralising militants, and
attacks in Europe were becoming ever more important for ISIS to intimidate
people and send the message to followers that “we’re still here”. A survey by
pollster Emnid for Bild am Sonntag newspaper found that almost two-thirds (62
percent) of Germans expect an attack like those in Istanbul or Brussels to
happen at a German airport while 33 percent did not. More than half (57 percent)
of the 502 people polled called for tighter security in front of airport
buildings in Germany because of the threat while 39 percent did not want that.
Lavrov, Kerry have fresh exchange on
Syrian conflict
Reuters, Amman/Moscow Sunday, 3 July 2016/Russia and the United States held
fresh talks on Saturday on ways of cooperating to end the five-year conflict in
Syria as intensive Syrian government air strikes killed at least 40 civilians in
a town northeast of Damascus. Moscow and Washington are seeking ways of
brokering an end to a conflict that has killed more than 400,000 people,
according to the United Nations, and has sent a wave of refugees streaming
toward Europe. In the latest diplomatic contact between the two powers, Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry spoke by
phone on Saturday, Russia’s foreign ministry said. “They discussed ... the
possibility of Russian-American cooperation in the fight against terrorist
groups in Syria,” the statement said. The statement did not identify the groups
more closely. Russia, which supports President Bashar al-Assad, is conducting
airstrikes against various armed groups that are opposed to his rule including
Nusra Front - an offshoot of al-Qaeda - and ISIS which the Americans also
oppose. But Washington says Moscow is also targeting moderate rebel groups which
are ideologically opposed to al-Qaeda and which are supported by the United
States. Fighting continued unabated in Syria with intensive strikes by the
Syrian air force on Jayrud, northeast of Damascus, which killed 43 civilians a
day after the reported execution of a Syrian air force pilot, a monitor and
rebels said. They said the raids targeted a medical center, a school and a
residential area in Jayrud, a heavily populated town that had been earlier
spared heavy bombing after striking a local truce with the army. It had become
in that time a sanctuary for thousands of civilians fleeing heavy battles
nearby. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said scores were also
injured in the aerial strikes as well as by shelling from army posts in the
area. A rebel spokesman said the strikes seemed to be in revenge for the killing
of the air force pilot who parachuted near the town after his plane crashed on
Friday. “The strikes against civilians are in retaliation against the execution
of the pilot by Nusra Front,” said Said Seif al Qalamoni from the Free Syrian
Army’s (FSA) Shahid Ahmad Abdo brigade that operates in Jayrud alongside the
al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front and other groups. Rebels targeted a main army base in the
region with Russian-made surface to surface missiles after the aerial strikes,
al Qalamoni said. Syrian state media said the crash was due to a technical fault
and the pilot had ejected, while the rebel group Jaish al-Islam said it had shot
down the plane, but did not say how. Jaish al Islam said the pilot was arrested
and was subsequently killed by a fighter from the Nusra Front while being held
at a joint command center. Separately, Russian and Syrian planes intensified
bombing on Saturday of a strategic rebel-held area of Aleppo that is near the
only route into opposition-held parts of the northern city. If the Malah area
were to fall to the army and its allies they would succeed in laying siege to
areas where over 400,000 people live under rebel control. In northern Syria,
ISIS fighters who are encircled in the town of Manbij launched a major offensive
that pushed back US-backed forces for the first from areas inside the city they
had secured during a month-long campaign to capture the strategic city from the
militants. In the western coastal province of Latakia, rebels who include al
Nusra, consolidated gains in the strategic area just days after they retook
Kansaba which overlooks much of the mountainous Jabal Akrad area close to the
Turkish border.The Syrian government forces had captured Kansaba in February,
part of a wider advance in Latakia’s northern countryside at the time, that was
only made possible after Moscow embarked on a major military campaign on the
side of President Bashar al Assad last September.
Muslim man beaten outside Florida
mosque attended by Orlando gunman
Reuters Sunday, 3 July 2016/A Muslim man was beaten on Saturday outside a
Florida mosque attended by the gunman who killed 49 people at an Orlando
nightclub, though authorities and a Muslim civil rights group differed as to
whether the attack was racially motivated. The St. Lucie County Sheriff’s Office
said the assault outside the Fort Pierce Islamic Center was reported around 4:11
a.m. local time and that deputies found the victim, who had been punched in the
head and face, bleeding from the mouth. The suspect, 25-year-old Taylor Anthony
Mazzanti, was arrested shortly thereafter and booked on a charge of felony
battery, the office said. “Interviews by the deputies and supervisors on scene
and a written witness statement completed by the victim do not indicate any
racially-motivated comments were made by the suspect prior to, during or after
the incident,” Sheriff Ken Mascara said in a statement.
Mascara said the investigation was ongoing. The Florida branch of the Council on
American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) gave a different account of the incident. The
organization said a senior official with the Muslim non-profit, ICNA Relief, was
with the victim and that the attacker approached spouting racial slurs and other
offensive language. CAIR said the attacker, who is white, allegedly said, “You
Muslims need to get back to your country,” before assaulting the victim, who was
not identified by CAIR or authorities. CAIR said the victim was Muslim and
attended the Islamic Center.
The Islamic Center’s imam had requested extra security following the mass
shooting last month by Omar Mateen at the gay nightclub Pulse in Orlando, about
120 miles to the north, according to CAIR and mosque spokesman Wilfredo Ruiz.
Ruiz said Mateen had infrequently attended the mosque. Mateen, who was killed by
police after a three-hour siege inside the club, declared himself to be an
“Islamic soldier” and pledged allegiance to the leader of the Islamic State
militant group, according to emergency call transcripts released by the FBI last
month. Ruiz criticized the Sheriff’s Office for not giving them additional
security, saying: “This should not have happened.”Sheriff Mascara said
statements on the attack made by mosque officials and CAIR included “untruthful
rhetoric.”
UAE warns against wearing
traditional clothes abroad after US incident
The Associated Press, Dubai Sunday, 3 July 2016/The United Arab Emirates is
warning its citizens to avoid wearing traditional garments when traveling abroad
after an Emirati man was handcuffed in Ohio over terrorism fears. The Ministry
of Foreign Affairs said in a tweet late Saturday that Emiratis should avoid
wearing the garments for their safety. A separate ministry statement urged women
to abide by bans on face veils in parts of Europe. Local media reported Sunday
that Emirati national Ahmed al-Menhali was detained at gunpoint last week while
wearing a traditional white kandura, or ankle-length robe, and headscarf in
Avon, Ohio after a hotel clerk raised suspicions he could have links to ISIS.
Cleveland’s WEWS-TV posted police camera video footage of al-Menhali’s arrest
and a later meeting where Avon officials offered their apologies.
Qaeda fighters kidnap US-backed
rebel chief in Syria
AFP, Beirut Sunday, 3 July 2016/US-backed rebels on Sunday accused
Al-Qaeda-linked fighters of storming their headquarters in northwestern Syria
and kidnapping their commander and dozens of other combatants. In an online
statement, Jaish al-Tahrir (Liberation Army) said its commander, Mohammad al-Ghabi,
was abducted from his father’s home in the town of Kafranbel by Al-Nusra Front
jihadists on Saturday evening. It said Al-Nusra fighters also “kidnapped more
than 40 members of Jaish al-Tahrir” and stole weapons from other bases and
checkpoints set up in northwestern Syria. “We call on Al-Nusra Front to
immediately release our commander and all the others who were kidnapped,” the
statement said, urging other Islamist groups to put pressure on the
jihadists.The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed the incident and
said the US had supported Jaish al-Tahrir with weapons and even salaries in the
past. Al-Nusra has attacked several US-backed groups in northwestern Idlib
province -- most recently raiding the warehouses of Division 13 in the town of
Maarat al-Numan in March. And in the summer of 2015, it kidnapped several
members of US-trained rebel group Division 30. Idlib province is controlled by
the Army of Conquest, an alliance of Islamist and rebel fighters led by Al-Nusra
and hardline group Ahrar al-Sham. Residents of towns like Maarat al-Numan and
Kafranbel have demonstrated against Al-Nusra’s jihadist ideology. Syria’s
five-year conflict began with anti-government demonstrations before turning into
a complex war increasingly dominated by extremist groups. More than 280,000
people have been killed and millions have been forced to flee their homes since
March 2011.
Dr. Anouar Malek: No one can stop an
Iranian or Syrian revolution
Sunday, 03 July 2016/NCRI - Arab Parliamentarians, international actors, and
prominent civil society leaders have announced their support for the major “Free
Iran” gathering organized by the Iranian Resistance in Paris on July 9th. Dr.
Anouar Malek, a prominent writer and former Syrian correspondent in the Arab
Union, denounced the mullahs' regime in Iran for its mass executions, export of
terrorism and its complicity with Bashar al-Assad in the killing of Syrian
people. He addressed his concerns through a message broadcasted this week on the
Iranian opposition satellite channel Simay-e Azadi (INTV). In his message, Dr.
Malek honored the Iranian Resistance and the Syrian people and he called for
freedom, self-determination and an end to tyranny. Moreover, Dr. Malek stated
"behind the existing conflict in the Middle East, there stands the mullahs'
regime, and one must not blame the Iranian people for this issue. Undoubtedly,
the mullahs' regime is the main cause of the crisis. The presence of the mullahs
in Iran is a crisis in itself. I believe that the presence of this regime is not
only a danger for all people in the region, but it’s also a danger to all
humanity and the world. The mullahs’ regime puts the world in danger."
He added: "I do not think there is any force in the world that can bring the
revolution of Syria to the brink of defeat. There is no force to defeat human
will, perseverance, and the need for freedom; no matter which nationality. There
is no force to defeat a human who determines his or her own fate and will. This
principal is true also for the People's Mujahedin of Iran (PMOI or MEK) who have
not been defeated all these years although the mullahs' regime has always tried
to repress, murder, harass and imprison them. This is why defeating the will of
freedom is absolutely impossible."Dr. Malek also stressed to the participants of
the major gathering on July 9th that "the participants must continue their work;
contribute and cooperate with each other in all matters so that the mullahs'
regime of Iran will be under siege.”“I also call on other nations to support the
Iranian people who are suffering from tyranny, oppression and dictatorship. This
dictatorship that has inflicted its tyranny and injustices on other nations will
also harm the whole world one day. We must all stay in solidarity with each
other so that on July 9th, we will gather for the liberation day of the Iranian
people. The freedom of the Iranian people means the elimination of terrorism
that has cast its dominance on the whole region."To find out more about the July
9th rally for a "Free Iran" visit: http://ncr-iran.org/en/news/iran-resistance/20526-iran-prospects-for-change-one-year-after-the-nuclear-agreement
Political prisoner Ali Moezzi
invites all to participate in “Free Iran” gathering
Sunday, 03 July 2016/NCRI - The political prisoners of Iran’s notorious Evin and
Gohardasht (Rajai-Shahr) prisons have given their support for the annual
gathering of the Iranian Resistance held in Paris this year on July 9. They have
also called on all Iranians to participate in this major “Free Iran” gathering
in order to make it as notable as possible. Political prisoner Ali Moezzi, who
is father to two members of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI or
MEK), stressed in his message smuggled out of Evin Prison in Tehran:
"Undoubtedly, our nation has the right to live freely because the leaders and
pioneers of PMOI have sacrificed themselves in prisons and on the streets." “The
July 9th gathering in Paris calls out solidarity, perseverance and the
undeniable voice of oppressed Iranians. Accordingly, it will be attended by a
myriad of international guests, fellow citizens, supporters, the relatives of
political prisoners, families of Ashraf residents and liberated freedom fighters
as well.”“What makes this gathering valuable is the loyal support of those who
support freedom and democracy, which can pave the way to a new Iran. Peace be
upon you the protectors of honor and freedom. Your presence is the proof of the
Iranian people's legitimate and reasonable demands. Your presence is the promise
of victory and justice. The prospect that some eyes and ears cannot see or hear.
It is on the basis of this presence that we announce: We will build one, two,
three, 100, and a thousand Ashrafs [bastions of freedom]."
Ali Moezzi,
Ward 8 of Evin Prison
Finnish MEP Petri Sarvamaa
reiterates support for the cause of a free Iran
Sunday, 03 July 2016/NCRI - Petri Sarvamaa, a Member of the European Parliament
from Finland, has reiterated his support for the Iranian Resistance in the
run-up to the July 9 major "Free Iran" gathering in Paris. Remarks of Mr. Petri
Sarvamaa: Dear friends, The struggle for democratic and free Iran continues.
Today, we are over 270 members of the European Parliament that is over one-third
of all members from all political groups, from all 28 member states, supporting
human rights in Iran. I am one of the signatories of this statement. And I
sincerely hope that one day, the world will be better for Iran and the Iranian
people as well. International politics is not always nice or beautiful but I am
convinced that one day human rights will also be an important part as it should
be already now, in the politics of the European Union as regards the Iranian
people.
I wish all of you an excellent meeting in Paris on July 9th in support of Madam
Rajavi and the struggle for the free and democratic Iran.
Italian MEP Patrizia Toia
voices support for Maryam Rajavi’s campaign to free Iran
Sunday, 03 July 2016/NCRI - Patrizia Toia, a Member of the European Parliament
from Italy, has voiced support for the campaign by Mrs. Maryam Rajavi,
President-elect of the Iranian Resistance, to achieve a free and democratic
Iran. Ms. Patrizia Toia : Hello, my name is Patrizia Toia, member of European
Parliament from Italy. I would like to use this opportunity to express my
solidarity with the people of Iran who are living under a religious
dictatorship. I am particularly concerned about women in Iran and about the
limitations they have to tolerate. People of Iran deserve to have a democratic
leader. I have a lot of sympathy for the leader of the Iranian Resistance, Mrs.
Maryam Rajavi, whom I have met several times in Brussels. She was at the
European Parliament last March...Her leadership as a Muslim woman brings hope
for a free Iran. I am also one of the signatories of the statement of 270
members of European Parliament on human rights in Iran which was issued
recently. This statement signed by so many of my colleagues gives a strong
message to the people of Iran that we in Europe care about democracy in Iran and
we continue to support initiatives for a free Iran. That is why I encourage
everyone to join the event in Paris of 9th of July. I hope your rally would be a
great success. Good luck.
Iranian union activist released from prison after more than two months on hunger
strike
Saturday, 02 July 2016/NCRI – Iranian workers' rights activist Jafar Azimzadeh,
who carried out a hunger strike for more than 63 days while jailed as a
political prisoner, finally overcame the pressures and plots against him by the
mullahs’ regime which was forced to release him on Friday under intense social
and international pressure. Mr. Azimzadeh’s health had considerably deteriorated
after more than two months of a continuous hunger strike. His supporters had
been holding daily acts of protest to force the regime to release him. On
Wednesday, June 29, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) in a
statement reported that hundreds of workers, teachers and youths rallied outside
the office of the Iranian regime’s president Hassan Rouhani in Tehran earlier in
the day in support of Mr. Azimzadeh, demanding urgent action to save his life.
Gathering from different cities across Iran, protesters were seen chanting,
“Workers don’t belong in prison. Workers’ wages is not lashing,” “Jailed workers
must be freed,” “Political prisoners must be freed,” “62 days have passed and
Jafar remains in jail,” and “Plunderers are free, workers are in jail.” The
repressive intelligence agents and police prevented anyone from taking any video
footage or still images of the rally. A day prior to this gathering Rasoul
Boddaghi, Ismail Abdi and Mahmoud Beheshti Langroudi, jailed teachers who were
recently released, were joined by 180 other teachers and workers issuing a
statement announcing a hunger strike from Thursday, June 30, to Saturday, July 2
in support of Mr. Azimzadeh. Moreover, Mr. Ali Moezi, a supporter of the
People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI or MEK) and a number of other
political prisoners in the prisons of Evin and Gohardasht underscored the
repressive regime and its so-called judiciary are responsible for Mr.
Azimzadeh’s health and well-being, adding they, too, will be on hunger strike
starting Tuesday, June 28.
Mr. Azimzadeh had gone unconscious many times in the past few days. Despite his
conditions, Hajilou, the regime’s representative in the public prosecutor’s
office, has said they will do nothing in the case of Mr. Azidzadeh losing his
life. Azimzadeh was on hunger strike protesting the “violation of the
fundamental rights of teachers and workers,” “their detention and prosecution
for bogus reasons” and raising charges such as “acting against security” against
labor activists and teachers. Mr. Azimzadeh, who was arrested on November 8,
2015, has been serving a six-year prison sentence in Ward 8 of Evin Prison for
engaging in peaceful and legitimate trade union activities. On May 27, Mr.
Azimzadeh sent an open letter to the International Labor Organization (ILO) from
prison in which he lambasted the Iranian regime's mistreatment of workers.A key
demand of Mr. Azimzadeh and other workers’ union activists is for the
authorities to drop the charge of “gathering and colluding to commit crimes
against national security” and other national security charges in cases of union
activities. Mr. Azimzadeh sent a statement out of Evin Prison following the
release on bail of fellow political prisoner Ismail Abdi, Secretary General of
Iran’s Teachers’ Trade Association (ITTA), vowing to continue his hunger strike
until the "demands of millions of teachers and workers" are met. Amnesty
International issued an Urgent Action appeal in his support on June 29, saying:
“Iranian trade unionist Jafar Azimzadeh, the Chair of the Free Union of Workers
of Iran, lost consciousness on 27 June following a two-month-long hunger strike.
He has been hospitalized since 18 June due to his deteriorating health, but is
at risk of being returned to Tehran’s Evin Prison, where his life may be at
risk. He is a prisoner of conscience.”
“His health deteriorated after he started an indefinite hunger strike on 29
April, in advance of International Workers' Day on 1 May. He began the hunger
strike in protest at the arrest and conviction of himself and other trade
unionists and teachers on trumped-up national security-related charges; the
repression of trade unionists’ peaceful assemblies and strikes; the ban on
independently organized events for International Workers' Day and World
Teachers’ Day; and the continuing existence of wages that fall below the poverty
line,” the statement added.
The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) in a May 24 statement once
again called on all defenders of human rights, particularly the United Nations
High Commissioner for Human Rights, UN Special Rapporteur on torture and other
cruel and inhumane punishments, the Special Rapporteur on the right of everyone
to the enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of physical and mental
health, the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Iran, and the
Working Group on Arbitrary Detention, to take urgent and effective action to
secure the release of political prisoners on hunger strike in Iran, including
Mr. Azimzadeh.
‘Thug Life:’ Exposing Egypt’s disturbing revenge attack industry
Al Arabiya English Sunday, 3 July 2016/A new take on thuggery has sparked uproar
in Egypt this week after a Facebook page gaining prominence across the country
appeared to promote violent revenge attacks. For years, Egypt's thuggery culture
existed to fill a power vacuum in areas where weak political and administrative
institutions failed to apply law and justice. Last week, Egyptian authorities
said they had taken down the Facebook page claiming to offer acts of thuggery
and bullying to “recover rights” for those who believe they were mistreated or
victimized. In a tone that may indicate sarcasm, posts on the page offered
packages ranging from 500 to 1,500 Egyptian pounds to retrieve stolen cars from
robbers, fight back abusive taxi and microbus drivers by damaging their cars, in
addition to deriding university teachers who mistreated their students.The page,
which according to local reports had more than 80,000 followers, is believed to
be a hoax.
Nevertheless, it didn’t fail to attract followers, who clearly felt the
phenomenon of thug-hiring wasn’t a hoax. Thugs, or “Baltageya” as they are
known, existed in Egypt in the absence a competent justice system, due to
political and non-political reasons alike, said Cairo-based Sociology Professor
Said Sadek.“They always existed in Egypt, especially in areas where government
control is weak. When no law is being applied or enforced, the people will look
for somebody to enforce it.”They are known to be able-bodied and usually hail
from shantytowns or slums, Sadek said. They also know how to use weapons and can
be rented to do such tasks for money. The term “Baltageya” originates from the
Turkish word “balta” which means an axe, Egyptian writer Fahmy Howeidy once
wrote.
So the word “Baltagy” (singular for Baltageya) refers to the person who wields
the axe, Howeidy suggested, in an article published in Al-Shorouk newspaper.
Has Egyptian pop culture glamorized thuggery?
Since the 2011 uprising that ousted longtime President Hosni Mubarak, portraying
the fierce and shadowy lives of thugs has become more prevalent in Egyptian
television and cinema. Decades ago, writings by Egyptian Nobel laureate Naguib
Mahfouz portrayed the life of an alley’s thug. But an uncanny resemblance
between thuggery then and now remains. Several well-known Egyptian actors played
leading roles portraying thugs as heroes who take matters into own hands to
avenge themselves. For example, prominent actor Mohammad Ramadan plays the
character of a "baltagy" in one of this year’s highly popular Ramadan TV series.
Howayda Mostafa, a media professor at Cairo University, said the Egyptian media
is playing a significant role in popularizing thuggery and promoting violence as
“a role model for people to follow.”“The phenomenon of a ‘baltagy’ who uses
violence to take back his rights, acting against the law, has been promoted in
dramas, which have contributed to expanding its fan base,” she told Al Arabiya
English.
“It is being portrayed as a symbol of power” during a time when an adequate
justice system is absent, she added.
Thuggery and protests
Off the silver-screen, the term has extended to other groups of people.
Following the 2011 uprising the term was often used to refer to
anti-revolutionary secret agents that supported his regime. It was then when
Egyptians began to hear about infiltrators aiming to sabotage peaceful
demonstrations, such as the “thugs sent on camels and horses” to break up a
protest in Cairo. The incident later became known as Egypt's 'Battle of the
Camel.'Instead of fighting the phenomenon, Sadek argued that many Arab governments
would “cooperate” with thugs when they didn’t want to be seen as disrupting
peaceful protests with security forces. In 2011, a council of top Egyptian army
generals who were in power at the time issued a decree to combat thuggery, which
they believed to be increasing at the time. But human rights activists argued
that the laws were used to justify a crackdown on many activists who were being
arrested on thuggery charges.Egyptian political activist Alaa Abdel-Fattah is
serving a five-year prison sentence for violating a protest law, as well as
thuggery and inciting violence. (File photo: AFP)
Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 03-04/16
Can the Oil Market Help Bring
About a Saudi-Iranian Compromise?
Middle East Briefing/July 03/16
The rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran is one of the most significant challenges
to global diplomacy in decades. It is a multi-dimensional conflict, and though
it has its historical roots, its current flare defies any single-sided
explanation.
However, more often than not, accumulative tension reaches a breaking point one
way or another. In certain cases it is war that ends a conflict that has been
building up in earnest. In others, tension ends in a less dramatic fashion.
But in all cases, it is inconceivable to expect an open-ended continuation of a
buildup in tension. The underlying dynamic of an unstable balance reaches,
sooner or later, a point of relative stability. A rapid pace of escalation is
also a sign of a conflict ripening into an end game of a sort. In the case of
Saudi Arabia and Iran, it is worthwhile to try to find an area where the two
sides can descend the tree and reverse the upward direction of the curve of
their rivalry in order to avoid any overdramatic conclusion of the current
escalation.
The suggestion that oil policies may be a proper candidate for such an area may
shock some readers. After all, one key reason why oil prices are as low as they
are now is that both countries refuse to cap their production and both are
engaged in a race to give additional discounts to prospective buyers, to snatch
a potential market from the hands of the other.
However, in this picture of heated escalation and economic warfare, there is a
latent opposite – that of coordination and dialogue. After all, it was the Cuban
missile crisis that inaugurated the “detente” decades between the Soviet Union
and the US.
Both Saudi Arabia and Iran are impacted heavily by low oil prices. Both have a
genuine interest in bringing those prices to a reasonably higher level. And
above all, both can do exactly that if they succeed in reaching an accommodation
in the global energy market. If reached, such an accommodation can pave the road
to dialogue pertaining to other spheres of competition.
A huge gap between global oil prices and Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven — the
oil price at which its budget is balanced — has led to a budget deficit
estimated at 15% of gross domestic product (GDP) in Saudi Arabia last year.
Austerity measures in its 2016 budget have helped reduce Saudi fiscal breakeven
from just over $100.40 per barrel in 2015 to an estimated $77.60 per barrel in
2016. In other words, Riyadh needs to sell its oil at $77.60 a barrel in order
to fill the gap in its budget.
In addition to austerity measures, which include cutting subsidies on consumer
energy prices, the Kingdom is tapping into its huge financial reserves at an
increasing rate.
But both tracks have their limits. Austerity measures cannot be toughened beyond
the point where they are likely to trigger a public backlash, and the financial
reserve can be tapped only to a certain point before threatening other fiscal
and financial domains.
Iran is actually facing a direr situation. The potential positive impact of
ending US and international sanctions, even partially, is offset by dwindling
oil revenues. Iran has lost about $135 billion just from the fact that it wasn’t
able to produce as much as it could during the sanctions. But over the next five
years, it’s going to lose about $180 billion due to low oil prices based on a
price level of $45-50 a barrel, even by 2020.
Iran’s budget for the current year is estimated at $89 billion (based on the
official exchange rate), which is 2.6% less than what president Hassan Rouhani’s
government had planned for. The actual revenues, however, will be considerably
less. While official numbers point to a budget deficit of 2.2%, the real figure
may be as bad as double the estimated deficit.
Politically, the Iranian people granted their regime all the support it needs to
face the sanctions imposed by the “Great Satan”. Confronting the West was the
foundation of the Tehran regime’s abrasive behavior against the population and a
handy explanation of economic hardships. But once this Great Satan background
drops from the picture, the regime will stand naked in the eyes of ordinary
Iranians.
As we see now, Tehran is trying to inflate the role of Saudi Arabia as a
replacement antagonist of the Grand Satan. Yet, it will remain evident, in the
eyes of most Iranians, that giving up provocative policies can help pave the
road to a kind of understanding that helps both countries to focus on the urgent
mission of stabilizing their economies.
Looking deeper into the situation in Iran, it would be helpful for the Arabs to
say more loudly what they say privately or on scarce public occasions: Arabs are
indeed ready to build bridges with Iran if it engages in good faith talks to
reduce regional tension.
There are obstacles on the road to reach this goal. The Iranian Revolutionary
Guard Corp (IRGC) exists on a base of continued revolutionary fever and the
export of Iranian revolutionary values to the region. But Tehran should realize
that it will lose its bird in hand, which is mutual cooperation and joint
economic development with the Arabs, for the imaginary ten birds in the bush of
illusive intervention policies and expansion that so far has led to the
miserable scene we now see in the region. The main question here is: will
Ayatollah Khamenei get the IRGC to drink the poison of accepting an
understanding with the Arabs when such an understanding will certainly lead to
shaking the IRGC’s raison d’etre – intervention, export of the revolution, and
the creation of imaginary Satans of all sizes?
It is self-evident that both countries, Saudi Arabia and Iran, have a genuine
interest in reaching a deal in the oil market to increase the price level to
around $70-80 a barrel. This target price could be reached if both Riyadh and
Tehran realize that neither of them will be able to ruin the other without
ruining itself in the process.
This fact can help furnish the foundation of an understanding between the two
rivals. Russia would help, if only for self-serving reasons. And the US can
help, as the escalating regional polarization in the Middle East puts
Washington, in the post-nuclear-deal era, in an awkward strategic position.
In 2016–17, according to the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of
Sciences, economic growth will remain negative at around -0.5% to 1.5%, even if
oil prices recover to $80 per barrel. According to other estimates, the Russian
economy can only achieve positive growth if the oil price were to rise above $90
per barrel.
Russia was energetically involved in last April’s oil producers’ conference in
Doha, which ended in total failure due to differences between Saudi Arabia and
Iran. President Obama has also been promoting his “cold peace” between the two
rivals, though as usual in his preaching rhetoric and without providing
practical avenues to advance this objective.
But the more the tension escalates, the larger the window to reach a compromise
opens. It is time for more behind-the-scenes diplomatic activities to
de-escalate tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
After the SCO Summit and the
Putin-Xi Jinping Meeting: Russia Confronts Economic Opportunities and Pitfalls
Middle East Briefing/July 03/16
Russian President Vladimir Putin completed his fourth state visit to China last
weekend, following the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in
Tashkent. At the conclusion of his visit, the two countries announced that 56
economic deals had been signed, totaling $50 billion in investment. More than 60
percent of those agreements – $30 billion in projects — are either already
underway or near start-up. Russia has invited Chinese state owned enterprises (SOEs)
to take a minority stake in Rosneft, the Russian oil giant, and they are
expected to accept the offer, which will focus on expanded Rosneft
infrastructure in the Russian far east, to service the growing energy needs of
Asian nations, led by China.
During the June St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, President Putin
made clear that Russia is negotiating free trade agreements with 40 countries,
and there will be a larger economic and financial integration agreement
negotiated between China and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), comprised of
Russia, Belarus and several Central Asian nations. In Beijing, Putin and Xi
Jinping agreed to create a clearinghouse for trade between the two nations in
their own currencies — the yuan and the ruble.
One of the flagship joint projects that progressed during Putin’s visit to China
is the Moscow-to-Kazan high-speed rail project, which is part of a larger
long-term plan for uninterrupted high-speed rail links between St. Petersburg,
Moscow, and Beijing.
Since Xi Jinping took power in 2013, China has placed great emphasis on the “One
Belt-One Road” (OBOR) project for Eurasian integration, through a series of
high-speed rail links extending from central China to Atlantic Ocean ports in
Western Europe; and through maritime routes extending from the South China Sea
through the Indian Ocean, up the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean. China has
already invested heavily in the Greek port of Piraeus, which is now being
expanded by the Chinese firm COSCO (China Overseas Shipping Company). During his
June visit to Central Europe, President Xi Jinping signed agreements with Serbia
to build up a Danube River port near Belgrade, which will link to Pireaus via
new rail projects.
These Chinese investments are part of an institutional structure that has been
established since the July 2014 BRICS heads of state summit in Brazil, where the
five BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) created a
New Development Bank (NDB) to finance infrastructure projects among those
nations and beyond. Since then, China has launched the Asia Infrastructure
Investment Bank (AIIB), which has 70 member nations, and has also announced its
first infrastructure loans. These infrastructure banks promise to live up to
International Monetary Fund and World Bank standards of lending and
transparency, and begin to fill a serious vacuum in large-scale infrastructure
investment worldwide. Some Western circles caution that the NDB, AIIB, and
related new banks could form the nucleus of a new system, in which the
post-World War II Bretton Woods institutions are either replaced or put at a
severe competitive disadvantage.
Since May, Russia has replaced Saudi Arabia as the number one oil supplier to
China, and this relationship is likely to flourish, with the new pipeline and
refinery infrastructure planned for Eastern Siberia and the Russian far east.
All of these developments are suggestive of a real opportunity for Russia to
become a major player in Eurasian developments that can be driven by China’s
nearly $5 trillion in hard currency reserves. Xi Jinping has announced that
China will invest $3.5 trillion in the coming six years in these Eurasian
infrastructure programs, many of which run through Russia.
At the same time, however, Russia is facing some serious hurdles before it can
fully take advantage of the opportunities presented by the Chinese-led efforts
to establish the Eurasian land-bridge of transit and development corridors.
China has already established major freight rail connections to Iran, Germany,
and other European destinations, with transit routes south of Russia.
Russia has been badly damaged by the double-trouble of the collapse in oil
prices and the Western sanctions imposed following the Ukraine crisis of
2013-2014. One set of sanctions were imposed after Russia absorbed Crimea, and
another more serious set of sanctions were imposed over the Russian backing for
separatists in the Donbas region of southeastern Ukraine. The latter sanctions
are subject to a six month extension in the coming weeks, and the Crimea
sanctions have already been extended through June 2017.
Following the Brexit vote in Britain on June 23, support for continuing
anti-Russian sanctions in Europe is declining (the Cameron government in Britain
had been one of the strongest boosters of the anti-Russian sanctions by the
European Union, which they have now voted to leave), and could end altogether by
the end of the year, especially if Russia plays a productive role in
implementing the Minsk II Accords to end the Donbas standoff.
But Russian structural economic problems run much deeper. With the brief
exception of the Yevgeny Primakov government in the late 1990s, Russia has
focused on its energy and strategic mineral exports, at the expense of
investment in high-tech industry and internal infrastructure. The crash of oil
prices forced further austerity measures, and drove Russia to ever greater
dependency on its petroleum and mineral export revenues.
In March, over 1,500 economists and politicians attended the Moscow Economic
Forum, organized by the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which demanded
an overhaul of Russian economic policies, placing greater emphasis on industry.
Based on the economic downturn in recent years (the IMF recently forecasted that
the Russian economy will shrink by 1.5 percent this year), Putin may be facing a
more serious challenge in the Duma elections, which will be held in September.
In response to the NATO buildup along Russia’s western borders in the Baltic and
Black Sea regions, Russia has vastly expanded its military budget, diverting
resources to strategic rocket and nuclear weapons modernization, armed forces
personnel expansion, and frequent large-scale maneuvers. There are clear
parallels between the NATO vs. Warsaw Pact arms race of the Ronald Reagan era of
the 1980s and the present “New Cold War” evolving arms race. Russia cannot
sustain such a competitive draining of resources on military buildup — even if
direct military conflict is avoided.
And despite the growing strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing, there
are clearly some geopolitical differences that have yet to be fully overcome.
These differences could stand in the way of full Sino-Russian economic
integration and growth. At the just-concluded SCO summit, Russia promoted the
full membership of Iran in the organization, but China objected, and the issue
was put on a slow track. China views Iran’s behavior in the Middle East,
particularly in Syria, as destabilizing. They see Iran’s continued arming of
Hezbollah as another negative.
China’s stalling of Iran’s full accession to SCO membership may have a
geopolitical dimension as well. Russia has been strongly supportive of Indian
investment in the Iranian port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman, which is part of
a larger transport corridor project, running by rail into Afghanistan and on to
Central Asia. This project bypasses Pakistan, which is a strong ally of China
and an important part of the China Maritime Silk Road component of OBOR. China
is building rail and pipeline routes to the Pakistani port of Gwadar on the
Indian Ocean, in which it is also investing.
While India, China, Russia, and Pakistan — all SCO members (and, except for
Pakistan, BRICS partners) — say that the two port projects at Chabahar and
Gwadar are complementary and not competitive, the reality may be a little more
complex and frictional.
Russia’s other big problem, which could stand in the way of full Russian
integration into the Eurasian development plans is that Russia is still
influenced by a Putin loyalist oligarchy, which exerts significant influence on
the Kremlin’s economic policies. As the Moscow Economic Forum highlighted, Putin
has retained his grip on political power by maintaining a balancing act between
those oligarchs and other factions that are pressing for much greater capital
investment in the country’s broken infrastructure. This balancing act has had
the effect of creating an economic policy paralysis that is now impacting on
Putin’s own popularity.
An Agenda for NATO in the
Middle East
Middle East Briefing/July 03/16
The current chaos in the rapidly transforming Middle East will not be over soon.
Tectonic ruptures could be seen everywhere in the region. The painful birth of a
yet-to-be-determined new regional order has its promises and risks. While no one
can claim the ability to see through the current storm or predict its outcome,
the possibility of influencing its general direction is on the table of the
people of the region, their governments, and the global community in general.
Barring pressures to reduce violence, prevent foreign intervention, and confront
extra-territorial spillage from domestic conflicts, the global community should
leave the internal process of change in the Middle East to take its natural
course in the hands of its actual and indigenous forces. The ride is rough, it
is a roller coaster at times, but the world should be patient unless global
terrorist threats are detected.
But preventing foreign intervention during this difficult delivery process is
indeed a challenge. We have detailed in previous issues the requisites for a
US-NATO retaliatory structure to stop any attempt to abuse the vulnerabilities
of a region in transformation. Here are some steps that may be included in the
current debate related to the future agenda of NATO in the Middle East:
* The NATO Response Force (NRF) must be beefed up with both deployable
capabilities and a sub-command structure focused solely on the Middle East. Its
roles in training and formulating logistical structures on the ground in the
Middle East should be substantially expanded.
* A series of agreements with regional countries should be negotiated to
establish on-the-ground-facilities able to host the Middle East NRF (MENRF)
proposed above.
* Hands-on training should be run for both MENRF and indigenous armed forces to
integrate any rapid response operational steps taken in urgent situations.
* Expand the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI) and update this useful
platform for GCC-NATO cooperation.
* Energize the Mediterranean Dialogue platform and inject it with collective
tools of exchanging terrorism-related information.
* Encourage the establishment of an Arab Joint Forces (AJF). The AJF can provide
a properly receptive platform for the MENRF when the need for MENRF action
arises.
The current recent refugee crisis and terrorism threats point to the need for
better cooperation. It is high time to put an end to endless European debates
and deep-rooted hesitation at every step of the road. Events in the Middle East
have a very rapid tempo and require a state of mind prepared in advance for
unexpected turns and twists. It is also time to allocate additional resources to
the national defense forces in the each of the EU countries. Recent events have
shown beyond any doubt that a security crisis in the Middle East, once it
expands beyond the region, harms the Europeans before anyone else.
However, there are many issues that should be dealt with prior to taking steps
in any direction for NATO’s involvement in the Middle East.
Within NATO itself, we are following a vivid debate about the “identity” of the
alliance. A recent open letter to President Obama signed by a group of former
senior US officials raised concerns about the identity and functions of NATO.
While the open letter was focused on supporting the proposed membership of
Montenegro, it placed this support within the context of preserving the
stability of that country and the surrounding region.
This seems to have drawn criticism from those who wish to see the alliance
acting strictly within its traditional boundaries – the common defense of
Western democracies. Expanding the mission of the Alliance to “standing strong
in the face of Russian intimidation” is opposed by those critics.
This criticism should not be dismissed offhand. There is some merit in defending
the nature and structure of the Alliance. Yet, the mission of confronting
intimidation, Russian or anyone else’s, is linked almost organically to any pact
to defend Western democracies.
In other words, we see two main issues on NATO’s table at this juncture:
1: The Alliance has been struggling, since the end of the Cold War, to reinvent
itself. In the context of a rapidly changing global landscape, the nature of the
threats it faces has morphed into completely different strategic spheres.
2: NATO is faced with the basic question: How is it possible to adequately face
those evolving threats, while at the same time preserving its foundational
identity?
The challenge is met by developing a perspective that does not see NATO as a
closed fortress, isolated behind its wall. This perspective redefines NATO as a
rock-solid “nucleus” surrounded by a creative network of security alliances, in
which NATO plays an organizing and leadership role. Those alliances do not fall
within the category of NATO membership, but they vary in their relationship with
the center – which is NATO itself. This fits with the essence of NATO’s
foundational identity. Defending Western democracies should not be seen in a
vacuum, or in terms of formal legalistic definitions. This very task is not
always already shaped, it is shaped responsively and contingently, by the nature
of threats that face those democracies in any given moment.
This concept of looking at NATO as a “security center” is the right path to the
future of the organization. It is flexible enough to allow a larger margin of
movement for NATO without diluting its foundational identity or mission. It is
not a “formal” bypass of the new challenges. It has a deep relevance to the
essence of the mission in the post-Cold War world.
The Brexit vote in Britain may give those who criticize reshaping the mission of
NATO some momentum. But only common sense can overcome potential difficulties.
If there are common interests between the US and European nations in preserving
stability in the Middle East – and there are indeed sufficient common interests
between the two sides in meeting this challenge – it is possible to establish
the proper mechanism to enhance this stability.
To avoid a repeat of the crisis of 2003, NATO has to formulate its mission in
the Middle East in clearer terms, which must be accepted by all members. The
formula of establishing a regional security pact assisted and structured by
NATO, part of its network of security alliances, can help avoid future friction
within the Alliance.
The ICI, launched in 2004 in Istanbul and including all GCC countries, should
consider seriously the Saudi proposal to establish a Regional Rapid Deployment
Force, or the AJF mentioned above. The way to push the ICI one step further is
precisely what the Saudis have proposed. It is understandable that political
differences between participants may arise here and there. Yet, those
differences are not unsolvable. The establishment of the AJF should start
without its members entertaining any illusions that it can begin in a perfect
form. It will develop in time as a self-correcting and self-adapting process,
but also with the active labor of the member states.
Even the integration of the Mediterranean Dialogue (MD) group and the ICI may
not be necessary in the beginning. Integration will rise organically from the
evolution process of the new security structure in the region.
We believe that AJF is the right approach to frame NATO security assistance to
the Middle East in an operable approach. The idea should be revived and
discussed further with regional powers.
Russia and the US Change
their Policies on Syria
Middle East Briefing/July 03/16
For those who follow the Russian and US policies on Syria, it is obvious that
the failure of the Geneva process and of the diplomatic approach, at least for
now, led both countries to respond with differing approaches.
As recently as last week, we saw an example of how Moscow changed its position,
particularly in regard to the Assad forces’ operations on the ground in northern
Syria. While the Russian Air Force continued its raids against what they claim
to be “terrorist” targets, even if the victims are mainly civilians, it did not
interfere when ISIL – Russia’s claimed terrorist target – attacked the
Russian-trained “Desert Hawks” (DH) in al-Raqqa province. ISIL not only stopped
the DH forces’ advance, but also kicked them out of all positions they held in
the entire province, while the Russian generals averted their eyes.
It is noticeable now that the Russian Air Force does not provide support to all
the ground operations of Assad or his allies. Only selected confrontations on
the ground are selected for Russian aerial or ground support. This trend started
in a scattered fashion immediately after the Kremlin announced in March that it
is reducing its military presence in Syria. Since the collapse of the Geneva
process, however, it has become clearer and more systematic.
Russia assisted the Syrian forces in liberating Palmyra and al-Qaryatain from
ISIL due to their key strategic location. But in the north, Russian forces were
absent in the recent battles waged by Hezbollah, in attempted attacks on
opposition strongholds in and around Aleppo city. While Russian planes bombed
some US-supported opposition groups in the north in mid-June, Moscow soon
announced it had been a mistake, due to lack of information the detailed map of
the distribution of forces. It was reported that the Syrian government
intentionally provided the Russian war-room at the Hemeimeem airbase with false
information.
In the interval between the end of September last year and the end of March this
year, Assad and his allies have regained their momentum and turned the situation
on the ground in their favor. The initial plan had been that once this objective
had been achieved – which it was at the end of March – the diplomatic process
that had been initiated months before, with Assad’s advantageous tactical
momentum, would reach a balanced political deal between Assad and the
opposition.
However, an additional factor was added to the mix when the US and Russia
reached an agreement on the parameters for a ceasefire in Syria. The opposition,
under pressure from its regional backers, overall adhered to the deal. Assad and
his allies violated it repeatedly.
This is when the differences between Russia on the one hand, and Assad, Iran,
and Hezbollah on the other, became very clear. The trilateral alliance said that
the ceasefire was used to rearm and regroup the opposition in the north.
Meanwhile, Secretary John Kerry pressured his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov
to fulfill Russia’s commitment to rein in its allies in Syria to save the
ceasefire and the political process. Kerry warned that the alternative would be
the US and its allies arming the opposition and a continuation of the war, until
Assad could be defeated.
Moscow tried to convince Assad that “liberating every inch of Syria” is simply
not the name of the game as planned, and that the objective is to start a
meaningful political process that ends with all arms directed against one enemy:
ISIL. However, Assad’s calculations were different. He believed that the
Russians would have no choice but to continue their support for his forces and
to participate in defeating each and every opposition group, regardless of their
stance on terrorism. He also feared that a “meaningful” political process would
end in his departure. The Russians do not consider the person of Assad himself
that central to reaching a political solution. But Assad has always believed in
the mantra: “Je suis la Syrie”.
Now, what we see before our eyes is the Russians at a crossroads. Moscow has to
measure its steps in Syria in a way that fits only the initial goal of fighting
terrorism and pushing for a successful political deal to end the crisis, all the
while avoiding the zero-sum plans of Assad and Iran.
Moscow is convinced that this is the only way ahead in Syria. It watches with
understandable worry as Washington hardens its position. It knows that the
absence of an acceptable political deal sooner will result in having to accept a
worse deal later. However, the Kremlin cannot shoot itself in the feet by
letting Assad down completely. The Russian lines are drawn up according to the
initial objective: Preserve the west of Syria and try to reach a political deal
to gather all the forces, including the opposition, to focus solely on fighting
ISIL. So long as Assad and Iran harbor a different agenda, differences between
the two and Russia will only become more evident.
It is difficult to see how the differences in strategies between Moscow on the
one hand, and both Assad and Iran on the other, will evolve. What is absolutely
clear is the president Putin will insistence on acting according to the initial
agreement with his allies is always proportional to what the US does in Syria.
So long as the US remains passive, the consequences of Assad’s & Iran’s behavior
will be clearly carved in the minds of both, and Putin’s attempts to convince
them to remain within the framework of the initial strategy of reaching a
political solution will have a lesser chance of working.
It would seem that Iran is starting to read the situation as it is. But the
problem there, as usual, is that one should specify which Iran we’re talking
about, the IRGC or the government. A few days ago, the leader of Hezbollah,
Hassan Nasrallah, clearly reflected the position of the IRGC by announcing that
the fight to take Aleppo will continue no matter what the Russians say. He
hinted that Moscow does not understand that the ceasefire was meant to rearm and
regroup the opposition.
The moment Hezbollah and the IRGC-led militias lose their momentum, Tehran will
shift to diplomacy. For Assad and his allies to lose the momentum, the US has to
be involved more actively and the opposition has to be assisted more openly.
The US role as well has gone through a phase of some important modifications.
Until March, the US military presence was almost exclusively in Ya’rabia in
Hassakah province, and around Tcherin Dam. Gradually, more US special forces
have started to spread, particularly after establishing the Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF).
MH-60 and MH-47G gunships have been frequently spotted in northern Syrian skies.
The SDF were given M2A1s, MK47s, and Javelin anti-armor missiles. Additional
special forces from other NATO countries have arrived in the north of Syria, as
there was already the platform of the SDF to receive them.
Parallel to the SDF, the US was quietly building the New Syrian Army (NSA). The
NSA has developed a strategy by which it will fight ISIL until its defeat, and
then turn on Assad – which is exactly what the US demands opposition forces do.
This formula is obviously based on a nonsensical separation of ISIL and Assad,
however, it was suitable to introduce the new force to the surrounding
environment in an acceptable manner.
By the beginning of this year, the NSA was already active in the eastern Syrian
desert. Later, fighters of the NSA were spotted receiving training in Jordan.
Those fighters were provided with MK14EBR, M2 Browning, and M2-40B, all of which
are American-made arms. Moreover, the US Air Force has been seen on more
frequent operations over northern Syria, where it supported the Free Syrian Army
(FSA) in many important battles with ISIL.
What we see now is obviously a US-Russia tactical approach on the ground that is
a little more coordinated. When the US Air Force was bombing ISIL positions and
assisting the SDF, NSA, and FSA, Russia was restraining its aerial operations
over Idlib and Aleppo. Assad’s attack on Aleppo has stalled due to lack of
aerial support. It is thought that the Russians refrained from supporting the DH
forces’ advance towards Raqqa because a potential clash with SDF was emerging,
if the trend were allowed to continue.
This new Russian stance helped abort the progress of the DH fighters towards al-Tabaqah
airbase, the Hezbollah fighters’ campaign south of Aleppo, and the plan to
recapture Idlib by the Syrian army. The plan to surround ISIL forces in the
desert of Deir al-Zour, and in the al-Bab region east of Aleppo, was threatening
a potential confrontation between the SDF and Assad’s forces. There is no
appetite in Moscow to see such a confrontation. If it happens, it will push the
US not only to end its coordination with the Russians, but to invest heavily in
opposition groups in the north of Syria.
We have seen in all this a pattern that tells us that the Russians gauge their
steps according to the degree of coherence and determination manifested by the
US.
But the US is heading towards even deeper changes in its policies on Syria. A
heavyweight military strategist, Michele Flournoy, who is a probable candidate
for Secretary of Defense if Hillary Clinton wins the coming presidential
elections, recently outlined what she believes should be the US strategy in
Syria when the costly inaction of president Obama is over next November. She
wrote:
“I have argued for increasing U.S. military support to moderate Syrian
opposition groups fighting ISIS and the Assad regime, like the Southern Front,
not asking U.S. troops to do the fighting in their stead. I further argue that
the U.S. should under some circumstances consider using limited military
coercion – primarily strikes using standoff weapons – to retaliate against
Syrian military targets in order to stop violations of the Cessation of
Hostilities, deter Russian and Syrian bombing of innocent civilians and the
opposition groups we support, and set more favorable conditions on the ground
for a negotiated political settlement”.
“In short, I advocate doing more to support our partners on the ground to make
them more effective; I do
If this approach had been implemented earlier, many lives could have been saved,
ISIL would have become much less of a threat, and the crisis would have been
contained and solved earlier. But late is still better than never.
At last, we see a return to common sense: Change the balance of power on the
ground if you want to end the Syrian tragedy and really defeat ISIL.
Why Iranian Kurdish party is
stepping up fight against Tehran
Mohammed A. Salih/Al-Monitor/July
03/16
ERBIL, Iraq — The leader of a major Iranian Kurdish party has vowed to gradually
step up his group's fight against Iranian security forces, as the group ends
almost two decades of a unilateral cease-fire with Iran after a series of recent
clashes between the two sides. The Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan’s (PDKI)
armed wing, known as the peshmerga, have clashed with Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on at least five occasions over recent weeks,
resulting in dozens of casualties on both the IRGC and PDKI sides — although
both parties dispute the counts. "Our forces are now moving around [in Iranian
Kurdistan], making contacts with people, and are ready to act in self-defense
only if attacked. But in future stages, our forces will move to the attack mode.
This is a process that will gradually unfold," Mustafa Hijri, the PDKI
secretary-general, told Al-Monitor. He said his forces have not yet initiated
attacking IRGC units and only engaged in self-defense. Hijri noted that his
party's increased activity and military presence in the Kurdish areas of Iran is
justified as the Iranian government "has stepped up pressure on Kurds and has
not left space for meaningful civic or political work [inside the country]."
He added that his party's attacks are also meant to "show the world that Iran is
not what it claims to be and that it is vulnerable." The first clashes occurred
in Oshnavieh, which, according to Hijri, marked the first major confrontation
between Iran and PDKI since the mid-1990s when the PDKI peshmerga withdrew from
the Qandil Mountains on the Iran-Iraq border to a camp in the town of Koya in
Iraqi Kurdistan, according to a PDKI statement June 17. The skirmishes between
Kurdish and Iranian forces signify the PDKI's intention to re-establish its
military presence inside the Kurdish areas of Iran, which span the western
provinces of Kurdistan, Kermanshah, West Azerbaijan and Elam. Since March 2015,
the PDKI has dispatched several teams of its fighters and political cadets into
Iranian Kurdistan.
PDKI has a tense history of relations with Iran. Its two former leaders, Abdul
Rahman Ghassemlou (killed in 1989) and Sadegh Sharafkandi (killed in 1992), are
believed to have been assassinated by Iranian government operatives in Europe.
Several Kurdish activists have been hanged by the Iranian government in recent
years for alleged affiliations with Kurdish opposition parties. Iran's
constitution bans the followers of Sunni Islam from attaining higher offices
such as president. The majority of Iran's ethnic minorities such as the Kurds,
Baloch and Turkmen are Sunni, while Kurdish areas are economically among the
most underdeveloped in the country, with their governors often chosen from other
parts of the country. Regardless of what objectives PDKI pursues, its armed
struggle might in practice lead to further militarization of the Kurdish areas,
stricter restrictions by the government on the population there and further
deterioration of economic conditions. Responding to the rising level of PDKI
activity and seeking to increase pressure on Iraqi Kurdish government and
factions to curb the PDKI, Iran's artillery shelled the border areas of Sidakan
and Haji Omaran inside Iraqi Kurdistan on June 26, injuring at least five
people. As a result, 10 local villages have been abandoned by their residents
fearing future attacks by Iran.
Seeking to dissuade further PDKI activity, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, the
commander of IRGC land forces, has threatened to launch attacks on PDKI bases in
Iraqi Kurdistan if the Kurdish government fails to contain Iranian Kurdish
forces, according to Fars news agency. In July 1996, exploiting the civil war
among Iraqi Kurdish parties and its close relationship with the Iraqi Patriotic
Union of Kurdistan, Iran attacked the PDKI bases in Koya. Hijri said his party
takes Iran's threats seriously and is prepared to deal with it. Following the
clashes in Oshnavieh, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Expediency Council and
former IRGC commander, accused Saudi Arabia of supporting PDKI activities in
Iran. But the Saudi consulate in Erbil has denied the accusations as "baseless
and untrue."The resurging conflict between the PDKI and Iran has raised
questions over how this might affect Iraqi Kurdistan that hosts the Kurdish
parties opposed to the neighboring Islamic Republic of Iran.
Realizing the liability that rising PDKI activity inside Iran poses to its
interests, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) put out a statement
expressing its concerns over the attacks by both Iran and Turkey, which has
regularly bombed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) positions in Iraqi Kurdistan.
"We object the use of Kurdistan Region's territories and borders by some of the
Iranian opposition groups and the [PKK] to launch attacks against the
neighboring countries," the KRG statement released June 26 read. Hijri said that
Iranian attacks on Iraqi Kurdish border areas are unjustified, adding that PDKI
fighters have not attacked Iranian forces from Iraqi Kurdistan's border areas
and have been operating deep inside Iran's territory. "We are thinking, when the
right time comes, to gradually move our forces out of here [Iraqi Kurdistan] so
that Iran will not have any excuses to create problems for the [KRG]," Hijri
said. The PDKI is one of a number of Iranian Kurdish opposition parties
currently based in Iraqi Kurdistan. But with the exception of the Party of Free
Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), which is affiliated with Turkey's PKK, the PDKI and
other groups have silenced their guns for the past couple of decades largely out
of consideration for Iraqi Kurdistan's relations with neighboring Iran.
As the PDKI has decided to step up its presence in Iran, many have been
wondering about the reasons behind the decision and its timing. "It's largely
due to internal Kurdish dynamics. There is a competition between PDKI and other
groups such as PJAK," Mamand Roja, a Kurdish researcher and analyst, told
Al-Monitor. Roja added that the group also seeks to energize its base and draw
international attention to its cause by stepping up its fight against Iran. In
recent years, PJAK has clashed with Iranian forces on a number of occasions,
most recently on June 13, trying to establish itself as the Kurdish party
challenging Iran's security forces. Now, the PDKI seeks to regain its
traditionally dominant position in the Iranian Kurdish scene. But given several
strong competitors and internal splits within the party in recent years, it's
not clear if the PDKI can retain its former strength. Kurdish movements across
the region have traditionally relied on support from a regional country against
the government they have fought. During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, Iran's
Kurdish opposition was backed by Saddam Hussein's government and Iraq's Kurdish
parties were supported by Iran. The overthrow of Saddam and the domination of
Baghdad by groups friendly to Iran in recent years have dealt a blow to PDKI's
position, according to Roja. In addition, the Islamic Republic appears to be
currently at the peak of its strength since its founding in 1979. Yet some
believe the current regional turmoil might present an opening for PDKI.
"The regional rivalries between Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have created an
opportunity through which Iranian Kurdistan can become part of the bigger
regional picture," Roja said.
IS turns its attention to
Jordan
Aaron Magid/Al-Monitor/July 03/16
AMMAN, Jordan — Prior to the month of Ramadan, Islamic State (IS) spokesman
Abu-Muhammad al-Adnani called for increased attacks worldwide in an audiotape
released on May 21. “Ramadan, the month of conquest and jihad. Get prepared, be
ready … to make it a month of calamity everywhere for nonbelievers,” he
announced. IS executed this threat by launching attacks across the region
including a June 21 suicide truck-bomb attack on Jordanian forces, killing seven
and injuring 13 in the Rukban border area. On June 26, IS claimed responsibility
for the strike and posted a video of the bombing on Amaq, a news agency
affiliated with the terrorist group. By publicly claiming this attack, IS
intensified its ongoing struggle against the Hashemite kingdom. Why did IS
strike Jordan? Amman joined the international coalition against IS in September
2014. After IS brutally burned Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kasasbeh last year,
government spokesman Mohammad al-Momani promised an “earth-shaking response.”
King Abdullah then increased the country’s airstrikes targeting IS’ stronghold
in Raqqa, Syria. Hassan Hassan, co-author of the book “ISIS: Inside the Army of
terror,” told Al-Monitor that IS considers the Hashemite kingdom “worse than the
Americans because this is an Arab and Muslim country that has declared war
against it.”
Oraib Rantawi, director of the Amman-based Quds Center for Political Studies,
explained that the Rukban bombing should be understood within the larger
regional context. “IS started losing territory in Iraq and Syria and was being
cornered in many fronts,” Rantawi explained. This pushed IS “to commit such
attacks to send messages to all parties concerned that [they] are still strong
and have the ability to harm [their] enemies," he added. Hassan believes that
the strike was designed to increase IS’ popularity within certain segments of
Jordanian society, especially citizens who view the Hashemite leadership as
illegitimate and apostate. Approximately 2,000 Jordanians have left the country
to fight with IS, and Islamist expert Mohammed Abu Rumman estimates that there
are more than 10,000 jihadi Salafists across the Hashemite kingdom. IS is trying
to “attract Jordanian jihadi sympathizers, and there are plenty of them,” Hassan
said, adding, “Both IS and al-Qaeda think that Jordan has a massive underground
recruitment opportunity that [they] can tap into.”The site chosen for the attack
appeared deliberate. On the video posted by Amaq, it noted that the operation
struck the “American-Jordanian” Rukban military base. Near this site, American,
British and Jordanian special forces have reportedly established an outpost to
support Syrian rebel groups. By striking at this sensitive spot, IS appears to
be likewise sending a message to Washington about the dangers of actively
supporting Syrian opposition militants.
Al-Ghad columnist Fahed Khitan told Al-Monitor that although this is the first
time IS claimed responsibility for a successful border attack against Jordan, it
has repeatedly attempted to strike the Hashemite kingdom in the past. Khitan
said the Rukban bombing might have been revenge against Amman for killing seven
jihadists in a March raid by Jordanian security forces in the northern city of
Irbid. The Hashemite kingdom publicly blamed IS for the firefight, which left
one Jordanian security officer dead. Analysts believe that IS’ ongoing conflict
with rebel groups partially motivated the June 21 truck bomb. Just as IS has
launched a series of cross-border attacks into Turkey designed to pressure
Ankara regarding its policy toward the Syrian war, the recent Rukban killing may
have a similar goal. Hassan noted that IS would try to increase its attacks in
the border area. This could lead to Jordan closing its border and sabotaging the
access Syrian rebels desperately require to continue fighting. Internal
developments within IS could have played a role in this attack. In May, three
groups that were loyal to IS merged together in Daraa, southern Syria. The
National reported that the unified group, called the Khalid bin Walid Army, has
been more effectively able to repel attacks by rebel groups in this area. Hassan
explained that the new union has led to improved coordination among the group
and allowed the leadership to better take advantage of IS members in its
operations.
Hassan expects additional attacks against Amman given the new changes within IS
in this strategic area close to Jordan’s border.
The same day of the June 21 strike, King Abdullah vowed that the country would
respond with an “iron fist” against those who threaten Amman’s security. The
London-based Al-Hayat newspaper reported that Jordan bombed IS-affiliated
targets in southern Syria on June 25, which was Amman’s first military response
after the Rukban bombing. Al-Hayat did not reveal if there were injuries or
deaths from the strikes, and the Jordanian military never officially disclosed
the attacks. However, Khitan, who is considered close to senior Jordanian
decision-makers, confirmed to Al-Monitor the military operation.
IS’ Rukban attack was designed to send a strong message to the Jordanian
leadership and security forces. However, immediately after the truck bombing,
Amman declared the Rukban area a closed military zone while preventing food and
medical supplies for the more than 60,000 refugees. More than half of the
trapped refugees are minors, and disease and malnutrition are spreading rapidly
in these harsh conditions. Once again, the Syrian refugees — who are
overwhelmingly Muslim — are paying a heavy price for IS’ military strikes.
*Editor's note: This article has been updated since its initial publication.
Targeting tourism to terrorize the
world
Turki Aldakhil/Al Arabiya/July 03/16
The suicide blast which rocked Turkey's main airport last week shows we've gone
beyond witnessing a phase that targets popular and touristic areas. In a recent
piece, fellow columnist Eyad Abu Shakra considered this a phase heading towards
redrawing maps of security and unrest. Meanwhile, the Lebanese interior minister
warned of explosions targeting busy touristic sites. Lebanese authorities later
revealed that they thwarted dangerous explosions which were set to target
prominent areas in the country. There are mutual goals between the Islamic State
of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the Syrian regime. If we look back at the audio and
video evidence in the case of convicted Lebanese former minister Michel Samaha,
we can see how he and an agent spoke about targeting busy areas during the holy
month of Ramadan even if the victims included Sunni sheikhs or Christians as the
aim was to harm Lebanon's stability.
Tourism is ISIS's biggest target and touristic sites are easy targets as you
cannot assign armies to guard parks. This is the case in Turkey, perhaps Iraq
and other areas. These are mutual aims which the Syrian regime is glad if
they're achieved and which ISIS carries out. These goals also serve the
interests of Hezbollah as they target the same mutual enemies. It is a trinity
of blood between groups that are now involved together.Tourism may later become
a rare currency, God forbid. Tourism is ISIS's biggest target and touristic
sites are easy targets as you cannot assign armies to guard parks.
This article was first published in Okaz on July 3, 2016.
Moving beyond Turkey’s
apology, Russian rhetoric
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/July 03/16
The joke doing the rounds these days is about Turkey’s postal service, which
works so badly that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s letter to the Kremlin
arrived seven month late. Jokes aside, Russia has made a media spectacle about
the receipt of a letter from Erdogan apologizing for the downing of a Russian
fighter jet over the Syria-Turkey border on Nov. 24, 2015. Such a letter was
long-awaited by the Kremlin. Despite the harsh rhetoric that followed the
incident, including accusations that Ankara supports the Islamic State of Iraq
and Syria (ISIS) in Syria, Russia needs Turkey as an ally. It is an important
trading partner, and an influential and powerful neighbor. Even if Turkey is not
loved or trusted, it is always better to be on good terms with it. The Turks
have a remarkable skill to apologize without being apologetic. Nevertheless, the
letter was received, the leaders spoke by phone for the first time since the
downing of the jet, and agreed to meet during the G20 summit in China, however
Erdogan asked for a meeting on Russian territory. President Vladimir Putin has
ordered ministries to start normalizing ties, and both countries’ foreign
ministers will hold talks in Sochi on July 1 on the sidelines of the Black Sea
Economic Cooperation Organization meeting. Erdogan had numerous reasons to send
the letter. He has spoiled Turkey’s relations with all its strategic partners.
Washington became cool toward Ankara following its crackdown on media, freedom
of speech and dissent. The U.S. alliance with the Kurdish Democratic Union Party
(PYD) alienates Turkey. Meanwhile, Europe is tired of a noisy neighbour, and the
German parliament has recognized the Armenian genocide, which is a slap in a
face for the Turks. Erdogan thinks his country will not become an EU member, at
least not in the medium term. Due to Turkey’s isolation, Erdogan is turning to
regional neighbors, boosting ties with Saudi Arabia, and restoring ties with
Israel and Russia.
Tourism
The letter is just the one of the signals Ankara has been sending Moscow for at
least two months. Russia’s sanctions and embargo on a significant group of
Turkish goods has hurt the latter’s economy. The strongest blow was the ban on
Russian tourists traveling to Turkey, which was a prime destination for them.
Russia is ready to embrace Turkey as its ally again, and the coming months will
see the unfreezing of bilateral projects. The severe decline in tourism has
caused local businesses to collapse. The tourism industry, which accounts for
6.2 percent of Turkish economic output and 8 percent of employment, is set to
lose $12 billion this year. However, it should be noted that the decline is also
due to the severe rise in terrorism. Despite the terrorist attack on Ataturk
International Airport claiming dozens of lives, Erdogan’s promise to do whatever
possible to guarantee the security of Russian tourists appears to be enough for
the Kremlin to start the process of lifting the ban. Russia is ready to embrace
Turkey as its ally again, and the coming months will see the unfreezing of
bilateral projects. However, relations will not be as they were before, as too
much was said on both sides in the past seven months, and the shooting down of
the fighter jet will be imprinted in their relations. Also, there are numerous
disagreements between the two countries, especially over Syria, which will
complicate bilateral cooperation, as well as Crimea and the sensitive issue of
the Armenian genocide. However, the warming of ties indicates that both sides
have found common ground, perhaps even on the Syrian matter. This could possibly
be concerning their stance on Assad, as no matter how devilish he is, he doesn't
support the Kurdish desire for autonomy. Ultimately, what can truly serve as a
common ground for the rebuilding of relations is the fight against terrorism.
The Istanbul attack has already played an important role in this. The organizer
of this violent bombing was on a Russian terrorist list. Hopefully, the fight
against terrorism will be a solid background for overcoming existing
disagreements between Russia and Turkey. It's time to build alliances, not fuel
rivalries.
Iran’s regional project
Jamal Khashoggi/Al Arabiya/July 03/16
The leaders of Yemen’s Houthis, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iraq’s Dawa party and
Bahrain’s Al-Wefaq party seek to implement their sectarian fundamentalist
project in order to spread Iran’s influence beyond its borders. Those leaders
consider Iran a cosmopolitan system rather than a state with defined boundaries.
Tehran works via institutions, delegates and representatives in neighboring
countries. They have pledged unconditional allegiance, waging war and declaring
peace on Tehran’s orders without taking into account the interests of their
states. They do not consider Bahrain, Lebanon, Syria or Iraq as countries.
This fundamentalist, sectarian project is spearheaded by Iran, but is not
limited to it. We have overlooked its conspiracies and preoccupied ourselves
with Sunni fundamentalism so as not to look like supporters of sectarianism.
This article will be described by Shiite sectarian media as sectarian, but there
are dozens of books and articles by Western researchers about Shiite
sectarianism that are not labelled as such. The Arab researcher, however, is
accused of sectarianism, and is considered a threat, whether he is an Islamist
or a nationalist. The secular Arab who exaggerates about Sunni sectarianism
should be more afraid of prevailing Shiite fundamentalism, because the latter is
full of illusion and theocracy. There was once a Shiite reform movement similar
to the Sunni one. The former was influenced by the latter, and sought to
reconcile between Shiite Islam and modernization. One of its most prominent
figures was Mohammad Baqir al-Sadr, who wrote the books “Our Islam” and “Our
Economy,” which were well-known among Muslim intellectuals during the 1960s
because he maintained a moderate, non-sectarian position. In Iran, moderate
reformers include the late Mahdi Bazerkan and Ibrahim Yazdi, who is detained.
They were influenced by the Sunni reform movement and were involved in the
Iranian revolution, but believe that fundamentalism has dominated the country
for the last three decades via power, money and exclusion.
Strategic visions
There are national transformation plans in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar
and Turkey that are similar to Saudi Vision 2030. Tehran is implementing its own
20-year plan. Its main goal is to turn the country into an international force
and an inspiration to the Muslim world. Iran’s strategic goal is to emerge as
the dominant power in southwest Asia, including the Arab world. Iran’s strategic
goal is to emerge as the dominant power in southwest Asia, including the Arab
world. “Tehran’s pragmatism will not seek a confrontation with foreign
dominating forces except when its interests are threatened,” said Iranian
politician Mohsen Rezaei, a pillar of the revolution. What is going on in the
world today is a clear example of this. The United States is fighting alongside
Iran in Iraq, or has paved the way for it to dominate the country. Late Saudi
Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal told the Americans: “We have fought
together to save Iraq from Iranian control, but the United States has handed
Iraq on a golden plate to Iran.” By understanding Tehran’s strategic 20-year
vision, Saudi Arabia - which is leading the project against Shiite
fundamentalism - has to reshape the conflict and push its allies to take the
same position.
The crises in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq should be linked and dealt with as
one Iranian project that threatens all our cultural and political components,
and our vision for the future. This project poses a serious threat to our
region, and should be seriously confronted with a unified project before it is
too late.
**This article first appeared in Al Hayat on July 2, 2016.
Noble Saudi politics
Mshari Al Thaydi/Al Arabiya/July 03/16
Strong and efficient policies are usually based on the integrity of the
principle on which they are founded. Tactics, media exposure and personal
charisma are just enhancements that complement the usefulness and effectiveness
of the policy; they are not the core granting it life or continuity. Thus we can
understand why Saudi groundwork has succeeded, led by founder King Abdulaziz,
his companions and men, despite internal and external challenges and hardships
that have devastated the region for more than a century now. One of Saudi
policy’s most precious pillars is the commitment to principles and trusting the
goodwill of others until the contrary is proven. Also, Saudi Arabia prohibits
assassinations, which are mastered by a number of Arab rulers. One of Saudi
policy’s most precious pillars is the commitment to principles and trusting the
goodwill of others until the contrary is proven. Also, Saudi Arabia prohibits
assassinations
Assassination attempt
In 1935, three Yemenis tried unsuccessfully to kill King Abdulaziz, who was
circumambulating the Kaaba. Some were killed on the spot, and the king’s son,
Crown Prince Saud, was stabbed instead of his father. The guards bravely
protected the king. An investigation showed that the killers committed their
transgression with the knowledge of the imam of Yemen, Imam Yahya, and all was
plotted by his Deputy Imam Ahmed..One of the attackers, Ali Hazem al-Hadiri, was
a captain in Imam Yahya’s army. A number of Yemenis, who lived in Riyadh seeking
the famous “Dekhna” religious education, were infuriated by this crime. Saudi
historian Fahd al-Marek said: “A person named Yahya Hazam was the leader of the
immigrants. Yahya knew the Koran by heart, and was one of the most wonderful and
noblest Yemeni persons I knew. We became very good friends with time. Yahya
confirmed to me, and I trust his words, that after Yemeni transgressors attacked
King Abdulaziz, he went to the latter and told him there are young men from
Yemen who are ready to take the adventure of killing Deputy Imam Ahmed, because
he plotted the treason.”Marek quoted Hazam as saying the king replied: “If
anyone betrayed us, we shall treat him with loyalty and amnesty according to our
principles. However, treason will have heavy repercussions on those who betray,
whether sooner or later.”Ethics do not necessarily mean weakness in politics,
but rather confidence and strength.
**This article was first published by Asharq al-Awsat on July 1, 2016.