LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
June 12/16
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletin16/english.june12.16.htm
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Bible Quotations For Today
And all in the
crowd were trying to touch him, for power came out from him and healed all of
them.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 06/12-19:"Now during those
days he went out to the mountain to pray; and he spent the night in prayer to
God. And when day came, he called his disciples and chose twelve of them, whom
he also named apostles: Simon, whom he named Peter, and his brother Andrew, and
James, and John, and Philip, and Bartholomew, and Matthew, and Thomas, and James
son of Alphaeus, and Simon, who was called the Zealot, and Judas son of James,
and Judas Iscariot, who became a traitor. He came down with them and stood on a
level place, with a great crowd of his disciples and a great multitude of people
from all Judea, Jerusalem, and the coast of Tyre and Sidon. They had come to
hear him and to be healed of their diseases; and those who were troubled with
unclean spirits were cured. And all in the crowd were trying to touch him, for
power came out from him and healed all of them.
If I speak in the tongues of
mortals and of angels, but do not have love, I am a noisy gong or a clanging
cymbal.
First Letter to the Corinthians 12/28-31/13-01-07:"And God has appointed in the
church first apostles, second prophets, third teachers; then deeds of power,
then gifts of healing, forms of assistance, forms of leadership, various kinds
of tongues. Are all apostles? Are all prophets? Are all teachers? Do all work
miracles? Do all possess gifts of healing? Do all speak in tongues? Do all
interpret? But strive for the greater gifts. And I will show you a still more
excellent way. If I speak in the tongues of mortals and of angels, but do not
have love, I am a noisy gong or a clanging cymbal. And if I have prophetic
powers, and understand all mysteries and all knowledge, and if I have all faith,
so as to remove mountains, but do not have love, I am nothing. If I give away
all my possessions, and if I hand over my body so that I may boast, but do not
have love, I gain nothing. Love is patient; love is kind; love is not envious or
boastful or arrogant or rude. It does not insist on its own way; it is not
irritable or resentful; it does not rejoice in wrongdoing, but rejoices in the
truth. It bears all things, believes all things, hopes all things, endures all
things.
Pope Francis's Tweet For
Today
Do not tire of asking in prayer for the Lord’s help especially in difficulty.
Ne vous lassez pas de demander par la prière l’aide du Seigneur, spécialement
dans les difficultés.
لا تتعبوا أبدًا من طلب المساعدة من الرب بواسطة الصلاة، ولاسيما في الصعوبات
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 11-12/16
Supporters hopeful, but Aoun’s road to Baabda still unclear/Hasan Lakkis/The
Daily Star/June 11/16
Is Lebanon abandoning sectarian politics/Mona Alami/Al-Monitor/June 11/16
Iran- Why Mullahs Need the Old Jaw-shutter/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/June
11/16
Russia and Israel are natural allies, despite differences/Maria Dubovikova/Al
Arabiya/June 11/16
The EU is Coming to Close Down Your Free Speech/Douglas Murray/Gatestone
Institute/June 11/16
Is Saudi-Iranian De-escalation Possible/Middle East Briefing/June 11/16
Putin’s Game Plan in the Middle East/Middle East Briefing/June 11/16
Fallujah, Manbij, and Mosul: What Will ISIL Do After Its Defeat/Middle East
Briefing/June 11/16
Washington Ponders Russia’s Next Moves in Syria/Middle East Briefing/June 11/16
Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on
June 11-12/16
Glaser Says Washington
Adheres to its Intention to Sanction Hizbullah
Rifi: Arrogance Deprived Christian and Alawite Representation in Tripoli
Report: U.S. Financial Sanctions against Hizbullah Continue
Geagea: Hizbullah's Policies Must Change to Repel Economic Danger
Hariri Says Hizbullah Blocking Quorum for President Election 'at Iran's Request'
Fatfat Confirms Mustaqbal to Hold 'Emergency General Conference'
House of Ex-Municipal Chief in Akkar Sprayed with Bullets
In Finland, Bassil Says Refugee Crisis an 'Existential Threat'
General security mobile application service launched
MP. Ibrahim Kenaan: Meerab agreement sacred
Hariri, Hennaoui review latest developments
Abou Faour: Syrian condition heading towards new round of violence, number of
refugees to the rise, thus increasing pressure over Lebanon
Ein Teeneh Itinerants
An Anti G4S Leftist protest in Hamra
Supporters hopeful, but Aoun’s road to Baabda still unclear
Is Lebanon abandoning sectarian politics?
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 11-12/16
Canadian court hands over Iran
assets to terror victims’ families
Tehran urged to release British-Iranian charity worker
Iraq’s Sadr warns of ‘million-man’ demo after Ramadan pause
Aid enters besieged area of central Syria
ISIS claims blasts near Shiite shrine in Damascus
Thousands of civilians trapped in Syria’s Manbij
Israel razes home of Palestinian teen for settler’s murder
Egypt’s Islamic authority downplays ISIS threat to destroy pyramids
More support for Afghan troops part of latest Obama strategy
Seven civilians killed by shelling in Benghazi: hospital official
Libyan forces ‘retake port’ in ISIS bastion Sirte
Bangladesh detains 1,600 in drive against Islamist radicals
ISIS fighters kill six Afghan police
North Carolina man faces charges after leaving bacon at mosque
Romney says he will not consider running for White House
UN slams Israel after Palestinian permit ban
Meeting with families in Gohardasht prison with bare feet
Unions rally in Tehran and Asaluyeh
Links From Jihad Watch Site for
June 11-12/16
German pol calls for security review amid fear Islamic State has
sent 100s of jihadis into country among migrants
Pakistan’s former President asks the U.S. to “trust” Pakistan
First America, now Canada awards families of victims of Iranian-sponsored
jihadist attacks
Qatar: Dutch woman arrested on suspicion of adultery after telling police she
had been raped
Ramadan in Damascus: Islamic State murders at least 12 with bombs near Shia
shrine
Hugh Fitzgerald: Things Are Looking Up Down Under, Or, Sensitivity Training
Follies
State Department admits it asks only Israel for “restraint” after terror attacks
Robert Spencer in PJ Media: The Non-PC Reason Iran Lies to Obama and the West
Liberation? Woman in town freed from Islamic State casts off niqab to reveal…hijab
Synagogue goes global with crash course on jihadist threats to Christians and
Jews
Reading the Qur’an during Ramadan 7: Juz Wa Idha sami’u
Christine Williams: I Was Challenged: Why Write About Jihadists
and Muslim Migrant Crimes?
June 11-12/16
Glaser Says Washington Adheres to its Intention to Sanction Hizbullah
Naharnet/June 11/16/The U.S. State Department announced that the U.S.
administration is still focused on the acts of Hizbullah in all parts of the
world, including “its global terrorist activities,” al-Joumhouria daily reported
on Saturday. U.S. Assistant Treasury Secretary for Terrorist Financing Daniel
Glaser had announced Washington's intention on the implementation of the penal
code against Hizbullah, “in accordance with the preservation of the strength of
the Lebanese financial system,” added the daily. Glaser had noted that the “law
does not target any component or Lebanese sect but one group which is Hizbullah
and its members and organizations.”In a testimony he made before a congressional
committee, Glaser pointed out that “the party's leaders tried to minimize the
impact of U.S., European and Gulf sanctions in several positions last year,
which indicated that our efforts are bearing fruit,” according to the daily. He
pointed out that “Hizbullah receives hundreds of millions of dollars from Iran,
as well as millions more from a worldwide network of supporters and companies.
Furthermore it uses a network of establishments and brokers for the purpose of
buying weapons, equipment and money laundering.” He said: “Washington has
focused on restricting the financing of Hizbullah inside Lebanon through broad
cooperation with the Lebanese authorities and banks. At the global level, it
targeted dealers and financiers in Europe, Latin America, East Asia and the
Middle East, through identifying and punishing the Iranian advocates of
Hizbullah and enable law and procedures enforcement.”
Rifi: Arrogance Deprived
Christian and Alawite Representation in Tripoli
Naharnet/June 11/16/Resigned Justice Minister Ashraf Rifi said on Saturday that
the outcome of the municipal elections in Tripoli carry a political message, and
assured that there are good-will mediators trying to maintain contact between
al-Mustaqbal Movement chief Saad Hariri and himself.“The political message
derived from the results of the municipal elections in Tripoli cannot be
overlooked,” Rifi told Voice of Lebanon Radio (100.5) in a telephone call.
“There are good-will mediators between me and Hariri. We must meet on the
principles of martyr ex-PM Rafik Hariri,” he added without elaborating. Rifi won
the elections in Tripoli recording a sweeping victory in the face of a list
backed by Hariri, ex-PM Najib Miqati, former ministers Faisal Karami and
Mohammed al-Safadi. “We can not be sold, and have to live up to the expectations
(of the public),” he said of the victory. Rifi attributed the loss of the other
party (Hariri's) in the Tripoli elections to the “arrogance of the other team
which deprived the Christians and Alawite from being represented in the new
municipal council in the city.” Rifi had emphasized earlier that he approached
his rivals and suggested listing the Christian and Alawite candidates on both
their lists to improve their chances of winning seats, but that they refused. He
accused his rivals of attempting to bribe members of his list, he said: “They
made contacts with several members and offered them sums of money which was
rebuffed because people of the city of Tripoli have firm positions.”
Report: U.S. Financial
Sanctions against Hizbullah Continue
Naharnet/June 11/16/Lebanese banks are set to close the accounts of Hizbullah
lawmakers, ministers, spouses and children that are deposited in the U.S.
dollar, but will keep untouched those deposited in the Lebanese Lira,
well-informed sources told Ashraq al-Awsat daily on Saturday. The move comes
after a reputable bank in Lebanon closed the bank accounts of Hizbullah
officials and all individuals having links to the party, a Hizbullah MP told the
daily on condition of anonymity. He described the move as “arbitrary and stems
from personal interests.”The source pointed out that an agreement was reached
between Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh and the party, under which stressing
the necessity to comply with the conditions laid down by the Special
Investigation Commission (SIC) to prevent the banks from taking individual
decisions in this regard. The source pointed out that the said bank must
reevaluate its actions and adhere to the instructions of the central bank which
monitors the application of law and take over the task of holding accountable
those who violate the instructions. Salameh had assured early in May that the
bank will abide by the restrictions in the Hizbullah International Financing
Prevention Act, which was signed into law in December.But he stressed that
Lebanese banks must “offer justifications” and consult with the Central Bank
before suspending accounts suspected of violating the anti-Hizbullah U.S.
sanctions law.The U.S. regulations say Washington will target those "knowingly
facilitating a significant transaction or transactions for" Hizbullah or any
individual, business or institution linked to the group. Those under sanctions
include Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and slain top commander Mustafa
Badreddine as well as some businessmen. The list also includes the group's al-Manar
TV and al-Nour Radio.
Geagea: Hizbullah's Policies
Must Change to Repel Economic Danger
Naharnet/June 11/16/Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea stressed on Saturday
that Hizbullah must change its internal and external policies to push away the
danger threatening Lebanon’s economy. “Hizbullah is involved in pushing away the
danger threatening Lebanon's economy. It has to introduce radical change to its
internal and external policies to meet the interests of the Lebanese as a whole
and not precisely its own audience,” said Geagea in a statement. Pointing out to
the latest Hizbullah campaign against the Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh for
abiding by the U.S. sanctions law against the party, Geagea said: “The Governor
has no alternative but to implement the international laws. Everyone knows that
Lebanon's banking system is closely linked to the international monetary
system.”Geagea pointed out that “it is illogical for Hizbullah to hold the
governorship of the Central Bank responsible for the consequences of its own
deeds.”He asked: “Are the Lebanese obliged to pay the price of Hizbullah's
unilateral policies which the Lebanese people have never agreed on?”Salameh had
assured early in May that the central bank will abide by the restrictions in the
Hizbullah International Financing Prevention Act, which was signed into law in
December. The U.S. regulations say Washington will target those "knowingly
facilitating a significant transaction or transactions for" Hizbullah or any
individual, business or institution linked to the group.
Hariri Says Hizbullah
Blocking Quorum for President Election 'at Iran's Request'
Naharnet/June 11/16/Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri on Friday
accused Iran of using its influence over Hizbullah to block the election of a
new Lebanese president. “It is not a secret that Hizbullah has involved its
military organization in a crazy war in Syria at the request of Iran to protect
the Bashar Assad regime in the face of his people,” said Hariri at an iftar
banquet he hosted at the Center House in honor of the Arab ambassadors
accredited in Lebanon. “Hizbullah also boasts of its interference in a number of
other Arab countries, from Yemen to Bahrain and Iraq, while preventing, also at
Iran’s request, a quorum in the Lebanese parliament to elect a president since
more than two years,” Hariri added. He warned that “this fact has not only cost
Lebanon hundreds of dead and thousands of injured but also placed our country,
against its will and for the first time since our independence, in a
confrontation with Arab consensus.”“This led to the decrease of the vital Arab
support to our State, complications for the interests of hundreds of thousands
of Lebanese working in the Arab countries, and the refrain from the part of Arab
tourists and investors to come to our country,” the ex-PM lamented. Describing
the present situation as “abnormal and temporary,” Hariri stressed that the
majority of Lebanese refuse “Iran’s interference in their affairs as well as in
the affairs of any Arab country.” “They refuse, although the refusal of some is
silent, to be used by Iran as wood in the Syrian fire or as tools for its
itinerant discord throughout the Arab world,” he added.And pledging to continue
to “sacrifice in order to protect our country from the fires of discord and
preserve its stability,” Hariri also promised to work on “the restoration of our
Arab relations, the return of our Arab brothers as tourists or investors to
their people in Lebanon and Lebanon’s full return to Arabism, politically,
economically, socially and culturally.” Al-Mustaqbal's leader also pointed out
that Lebanon has “managed to avoid the fires of the surrounding wars thanks to
the wisdom of the majority of its political components and the sacrifices of its
army and security forces.”Lebanon has been without a president since Michel
Suleiman's term expired in May 2014 and Hariri launched late in 2015 a proposal
to nominate Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh for the presidency.
Hariri's move was met with reservations from the country's main Christian
parties as well as Hizbullah, which is still insisting on the nomination of MP
Michel Aoun, its main Christian ally and the head of the Change and Reform bloc.
The parliamentary blocs of Hizbullah and Aoun and some of their allies have been
boycotting the electoral process in parliament, stripping the sessions of the
needed quorum.
Aoun's supporters argue that he is more eligible than Franjieh to become
president given the size of his parliamentary bloc and his bigger influence in
the Christian political arena.
Fatfat Confirms Mustaqbal to
Hold 'Emergency General Conference'
Naharnet/June 11/16/Al-Mustaqbal bloc MP Ahmed Fatfat on Friday confirmed
reports that al-Mustaqbal Movement led by ex-PM Saad Hariri intends to hold a
general conference for internal reevaluation in the wake of the latest political
and electoral setbacks. “There are preparations to hold an emergency general
conference for al-Mustaqbal movement, which in principle will be held between
September and October,” Fatfat said in an interview with the Akhbar al-Yawm news
agency. “In his speech yesterday, ex-PM Saad Hariri rearranged the priorities,”
the lawmaker added. “The coming period requires a common reevaluation by all the
members of al-Mustaqbal movement in order to take the necessary decisions at the
organizational, administrative and political levels,” Fatfat noted, revealing
that “the first step will be the reaffirmation of the principles.” On Thursday,
Hariri pledged to conduct a “critical internal reevaluation” in al-Mustaqbal in
light of the results of last month's municipal polls. “I will not pin the
responsibility on anyone and I will not absolve myself and those with me of the
responsibility. I'm in charge of drawing lessons from the polls' outcome, I'm at
the top of al-Mustaqbal movement's political hierarchy, and I will digest the
results no matter how hard they may be,” Hariri said. Apparently referring to
Mustaqbal minister-turned-electoral rival Ashraf Rifi, who has been accused of
using a sectarian rhetoric to win Tripoli's municipal vote, Hariri added:
“Politics in Lebanon has tried to give me lessons in lying, maneuvering,
incitement and the manipulation of people's sentiments, but my upbringing taught
me to be honest, frank and loyal, even if that comes at my expense.”Rifi had
confirmed last week that he would form a coalition with “forces seeking change”
in any upcoming parliamentary elections in the northern city of Tripoli. His
remarks came after a list he backed achieved a stunning victory in the city's
municipal polls against a list backed by Hariri, ex-PM Najib Miqati, former
ministers Mohammed Safadi and Faisal Karami, Jamaa Islamiya, al-Ahbash and the
Arab Democratic Party. Rifi also announced last week that he was mulling the
idea of starting a political movement. Addressing al-Mustaqbal, the minister
called for “rectifying the course and endorsing policies that take the opinion
of the Sunni community into consideration in order to avoid its descent towards
extremism.”
House of Ex-Municipal Chief
in Akkar Sprayed with Bullets
Naharnet/June 11/16/Unknown assailants shot firearms on Saturday on the house of
the former municipal chief of the town of Bazzal in the northern region of Akkar,
the state-run National News Agency reported. “The assailants opened fire on the
house of Sheikh Hatem Othman inflicting material damages on the house but no
casualties were reported,” said NNA. “The incident triggered a state of chaos in
the town,” it added. The security forces kicked off investigations into the
incident to uncover the perpetrators.
In Finland, Bassil Says
Refugee Crisis an 'Existential Threat'
Naharnet/June 11/16/Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil warned Friday that the Syrian
refugee crisis has started to pose an “existential threat” to Lebanon. “The
magnitude of the heavy refugee presence in Lebanon represents an existential
threat for our country,” Bassil cautioned after talks with Finland's Foreign
Minister Timo Soini in Helsinki.“The latest arrests in Greece, Germany and
France of terrorist cells consisted of individuals who entered the European
Union as refugees are a blatant example of the correlation between migration and
terrorism, which some traditional leaders are still refusing to acknowledge,”
Bassil added. “This migration is not aimed at securing the welfare of displaced
or migrant individuals. There is an attempt to use this influx of aggrieved
humans to allow the infiltration of terrorism, undermine Europe's diversity and
tolerance, and dismantle the humanitarian values on which the EU was built,” the
FM cautioned. Turning to Lebanon, Bassil described it as “a fortress that is
defending these values in the region while preserving this diversity and
confronting terrorism and the refugee influx.”Five years into the Syria
conflict, Lebanon hosts more than one million refugees from the war-torn
country, according to the United Nations. At least two thirds of them live in
extreme poverty, according to the U.N. With more than 1.1 million Syrians and
450,000 Palestinians registered as refugees, Lebanon is home to the world's
highest refugee-to-resident ratio.
General security mobile
application service launched
Sat 11 Jun 2016/NNA - General security - General Directorate announced on
Saturday the launching of the general security mobile application service
entitled General security which can be uploaded via the Appstore or Playstore.
The directorate added that this service would ease the citizens' issues and
would serve them better as it would provide them with access to know various
circulations and announcements issued by the Lebanese Security Forces, dates to
accomplish documents and receive them, warnings regarding the expiry dates of
the passports and residency period in addition to other notifications.
MP. Ibrahim Kenaan: Meerab
agreement sacred
Sat 11 Jun 2016/NNA - "Change and Reform" parliamentary bloc secretary MP
Ibrahim Kenaan said that the Christians agreement is sacred and solid,
describing it as a crossing bridge for all the Christians. The MP underscored
that Meerab agreement elevates above all temporary deadlines, adding that
despite some ups and downs which are normal, there is no return to the back.
Talking about the presidential elections, the MP assured the presence of
indications and attempts to end the presidential vacuum, thanks to the openness
among all political parties. He pointed out that the agreement had become
compulsory for Lebanon. The lawmaker pointed out to the presence of national and
foreign disagreements over the political issue, noting that the solution starts
by ending presidential void. Kenaan said that the U.S.A elections might be just
one of the indications as for ending the presidential vaccum in Lebanon. He
confirmed that Hizbullah has been supporting, and still is, MP Michel Aoun and
his position, adding "we have to stop predictions and perform our
duties."Commenting on the elections law, Kenaan said that they support the
Lebanese Forces' position and would confront any attempt to keep the 60's
parliamentary election law, adding that they support the proportionality law
because it guarantees fair representations for everybody. Kenaan urged "Future"
to help in agreeing on a law that secures correct representation for all the
Lebanese. Regarding the Syrian refugees, the MP called upon the international
community as well as the countries of the region to "shoulder the
responsibility," pointing out that "the return of the Syrians to their country
has become possible."As for the U.S.A sanctions on Hizbullah, the MP considered
that there are "some sensitive files of higher national interest which should
stay away from political polarization. Shaking the financial stability would
have repercussions on all of us and we should deal with this issue wisely."He
said that the issue is being treated in the right place away from the media and
the political polarization.
Hariri, Hennaoui review latest developments
Sat 11 Jun 2016 /NNA - Former Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, met on Saturday at
the "House of Center" with Youth and Sports Minister, Abdel-Motaleb Hennaoui,
with latest developments topping their discussions.
Abou Faour: Syrian condition
heading towards new round of violence, number of refugees to the rise, thus
increasing pressure over Lebanon
Sat 11 Jun 2016/NNA - Public Health Minister, Wael Abou Faour, warned Saturday
of the worsening situation in Syria, indicating that "conditions are heading
towards a new round of violence, with an expected rise in the number of Syrian
refugees which shall exert more pressures on Lebanon as a State, people, economy
and health system."Abou Faour's words came as he paid an inspection visit to the
newly established Kherbet Kanafar Public Hospital in West Bekaa, accompanied by
Greek Ambassador to Lebanon, Theodore Passas, and "Democratic Gathering" Member,
Deputy Antoine Saad.
Abou Faour thanked the Greek government for its generous grant to the hospital,
which is a vital health project providing essential medical care to the people
of the region. The Greek Ambassador, in turn, stressed on his country's
continued support to Lebanon, especially in the health sector. He also valued
the huge efforts exerted by the Lebanese Public Health Ministry under the
guidance of Minister Abou Faour, expressing admiration and respect to Lebanon
and the Lebanese people.
Ein Teeneh Itinerants
Sat 11 Jun 2016/NNA - House Speaker Berri has perceived rising changes in the
popular mood against politicians and government officials, Wadih Khazen stated
upon emerging out of talks with the Speaker and senior AMAL aides in Ein -
Teeneh today. The former cabinet minister also quoted the Speaker as calling for
a new electoral law allowing the election of a new president. Berri adamantly
refuses taking to the street in order to forestall undesired eventualities,
Khazen concluded. Among itinerant Ein - Teeneh visitors has been a 3 - man
delegation from the Jama'a Islamiyya with its polit bureau head Assaad Harmoush
echoing Berri's concern over popular disgruntlement in the wake of recent
municipal elections. Harmoush endorsed Berri's brand of elections based on the
principle of proportionality or else resorting to a mixed confessional formula
to be conducted in all 13 electoral departments seems more feasible, he
concluded.LAU faculty member Ahmad Khawaja, has reportedly briefed Berri over
newly - acquired university's data bank, for which Berri expressed deep
admiration, reporters concluded.
An Anti G4S Leftist protest
in Hamra
Sat 11 Jun 2016/NNA - An anti - G4S protest by mainstream Left - wing student
organizations, has been staged opposite the Central Bank complex in Hamra Str.
NNA field reporters said today. Having demonstrated against UNICEF's and Royal
Crown Plaza Hotel's purchases of G4S hardware, protesters have demanded the
imposition of an immediate boycott by the above - mentioned firms on G4S, for
its dealings with the Israeli security establishment, one protester Samah Idris
said. Citing instances whereby G4S assisted in beefing up colonial settler
security effectives, let alone its torturing of Palestinian kids inside Israeli
jails, Idris persisted in his call for Lebanese firms' strict adherence to
Boycott Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) Campaign by abruptly ending G4S
transactions in Lebanon. Also taking the word, several student activist
organizers, presented Central Bank officials with a petition demanding an
immediate phased out security firm transactions. Meanwhile, a Palestinian
folklore troupe has performed dances on the sidewalk opposite the Central Bank
building, NNA reporters added. Lebanese BDS list included among others: UNDP,
UNESCO, CSC Bank, IOM and Verdun Str - based Centre Dunes.
Supporters hopeful, but Aoun’s road to Baabda still unclear
Hasan Lakkis/The Daily
Star/June 11/16
Free Patriotic Movement founder Michel Aoun has yet to secure his path to the
presidency, despite optimism within his party that he will be elected president
next month after Eid al-Fitr. Parliamentary sources close to Aoun explained that
neither he nor anyone close to him has received any information that former
Prime Minister Saad Hariri has changed his position on the candidates, and added
that there are currently no indications that Aoun will make it to Baabda’s
Presidential Palace. Last year, Hariri nominated Marada Movement leader Sleiman
Frangieh for the presidency as a part of an internationally backed initiative to
end the power vacuum. Frangieh is also supported by Speaker Nabih Berri and a
number of independent lawmakers.
Despite
this, sources explained that the FPM and its allies are optimistic that things
are heading in the right direction. They said this optimism could have resulted
from a series of recent revelations.
The FPM may have drawn inspiration from comments made by Interior Minister
Nouhad Machnouk about Hariri’s adoption of Frangieh as his candidate for the
presidency, and his subsequent suggestion that he was not Hariri’s personal
choice for the top post.
It appears as if Machnouk’s comments may have paved the way for Hariri to let go
of his commitment to Frangieh.
And Hariri’s suggestion to Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah
that they bring their two candidates together may yet happen, which could also
push Hariri to abandon’s Frangieh’s nomination.
Earlier this month, Machnouk said in a TV interview that Hariri’s nomination of
Frangieh for the presidency was initially proposed by Britain, the U.S., and
Saudi Arabia.
Frangieh is standing against MP Michel Aoun, who is supported by Hezbollah and
some of its March 8 allies, along with the Lebanese Forces. Both Aoun and
Frangieh belong to the Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition.
As a way out of the presidential impasse, Hariri has urged Nasrallah to bring
Aoun and Frangieh together to try to convince one of them to bow out of the
race.
FPM supporters might also be drawing hope from remarks by Progressive Socialist
Party leader Walid Jumblatt. Jumblatt, who initially expressed his support for
Frangieh’s nomination, said that if Christian leaders agreed on Aoun as a
president, he wouldn’t stand against their choice.
The ongoing belief that Aoun’s ascendancy to the presidency could come as part
of a package deal, which would see Hariri reinstalled as prime minister, is
another sign to some that it may yet come to pass.
The FPM’s optimism has also been affected by the continued failure of Arab and
regional efforts to find consensus on another figure to fill the vacant
presidency. Lebanon entered its third year without a president in May. The post
has been empty since former President Michel Sleiman left office, and Parliament
has failed dozens of times to elect a successor.
Nevertheless, the same sources admit that Aoun’s election as a president remains
linked to regional developments, alluding to a Saudi-Iranian accord and the
translation of this agreement in ways that Hezbollah could agree on.
Such a deal will determine the future of complex national issues, including the
tripartite equation of the people, the Army, and the Resistance, and how the
Lebanese state will deal with the latest financial sanctions on Hezbollah.
The position on Syria would also prove to be a contentious issue in such talks,
especially if Syrian President Bashar Assad remains in power. Observers believe
that he will not step down any time soon.
Is Lebanon abandoning sectarian
politics?
Mona Alami/Al-Monitor/June 11/16
The disaffected have expressed their discontent in recent municipal polls in
Lebanon and in the streets of Iraq, two countries plagued by sectarianism and
lingering threats of terrorism. Dominated by partisan politics, both have
witnessed the rise of a cross-sectarian social movement critical of the
countries' aging and out-of-touch kleptocrats. In Lebanon, municipal elections
in May registered a decline in support for traditional parties, while in Iraq,
protests denouncing rampant corruption in government have shaken the country. Is
there hope for a new, political third way in the Levant?
Lebanon wrapped up the final round of municipal elections on May 29. In Tripoli,
the capital of the north, a list headed by Ashraf Rifi, a former Future
Movement-affiliated justice minister, won the majority of the city’s seats
against a coalition list backed by Sunni heavyweights, including billionaires
and former Prime Ministers Najib Mikati and Saad Hariri, billionaire Mohammad
Safadi and the powerful Karami family.
“The elections have clearly shown the displeasure of the Lebanese electorate
with the policies of local factions,” Paul Khalifeh, an analyst and editor of
Magazine, a political publication in French, told Al-Monitor. “In several
regions across the country, party supporters have refused to follow their
leaders’ voting instructions. As an example, the Beirut Madinati list, which was
comprised of independents with limited resources, was able to gain 40% of the
Beirut electoral vote against a list supported by 11 Lebanese factions. A
similar trend was observed in Christian and Druze areas, where parties appeared
to be disconnected from their popular base.”
A similar rebellion occurred in Shiite areas, bastions of Hezbollah and Amal,
which have also been disaffected, though to a lesser extent, than other regions.
Solid support for Hezbollah translated into victory for the party in its
traditional areas, such as the Baalbek-Hermel region, Dahiyeh (in Beirut's
southern suburbs) and southern Lebanon. The devil, however, is in the details.
Surprisingly, despite Hezbollah’s tight grip on its strongholds and its monopoly
on weapons, independent and family lists as well as the Lebanese Communist Party
still managed to compete and obtain a fair number of votes, including partial
victories in some areas.
According to an article in Now Lebanon, in Baalbek, Hezbollah’s Bekaa Valley
stronghold, the civil society list Baalbek Madinati managed to capture
approximately 45% of the vote. In the city of Hermel, Hezbollah faced a civil
society list appalled by corruption in the city council. One candidate, Hasan
Kabout, a Hezbollah supporter, rebelled against the organization and managed to
win a seat as an independent.
In south Lebanon and Nabatiyeh, the Communist Party and leftist independents
garnered an unprecedented number of votes. The communists, according to a May 23
statement issued by the party, managed partial or complete victories in more
than 17 municipalities. “Hezbollah has been able to preserve its base, however,
there have been cases of rebellion against the party’s orders,” Hezbollah
analyst Kassem Kassir told Al-Monitor. Indeed, one of the interesting trends in
the electoral results is that despite Hezbollah’s widespread call for followers
to cast their votes for the party, many ignored this “takleef sharii” (religious
edict), sources close to the organization confirmed.
The general unease that dominated the municipal elections is rooted in the
proliferation of environmental and corruption scandals combined with the
paralysis of state institutions. The trash scandal triggered protests and left
people angered because of the inability of officials to arrive at a sustainable
solution. Another scandal involved allegations of illegal internet transmission
stations profiting local figures. Meanwhile, Lebanese government institutions
continued to be paralyzed by the political factions’ inability to elect a
president, now going on two years.
Khalifeh believes that the political class in Lebanon will simply try to cling
to power instead of learning lessons from voters' choices in the municipal
elections. The recent results will certainly, however, influence parliamentary
elections in 2017, with the possible further erosion of the traditional parties’
base in favor of independents.
A similar cross-sectarian upheaval is taking place in Iraq. On March 25,
hundreds of Iraqi politicians fled the Green Zone, according to the Independent,
as thousands of demonstrators stormed the government quarter in Baghdad,
protesting harsh living conditions and corruption. Iraq currently ranks fifth
(tied with Libya) on the Corruption Perceptions Index. “The protesters had had
enough of empty promises made by failed politicians,” Luay al-Khatteeb,
executive director of the Iraq Energy Institute, told Al-Monitor. “For the 13
years of the post-[Saddam Hussein] period, the $750 billion in revenues that
Iraq made has little to show, as public services are bad if not nonexistent,
inflation is on the rise, the value of the Iraqi dinar is declining, the
government can no longer hire people in the public sector due to declining
revenues as a result of low oil prices, and the private sector is crippled
because of a legacy of bad regulations and governance.” The demonstrators are
followers of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who fought against the US occupation
after 2003.
“Protesters are fed up with poor government services, the electricity cuts and
an Iraqi political elite that pretends to represent the people,” Renad Mansour,
a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment in Beirut, told Al-Monitor. He also
expressed surprise that the demonstrations lasted as long as they have given the
war against the Islamic State and that the protesters have been able to shift
away from identity politics to consider real local issues.
“We have seen the protests pitting Kurds against Kurds, Shiites against Shiites.
Demonstrations have crossed ethnic and religious lines,” Mansour noted.
In Iraq, the crisis has reached a new peak, with the country running out of
money due to low oil prices and hydrocarbon sales representing about 90% of
Iraq’s export revenues. “I think the stalemate will prevail over the next
months, until the military operations in Fallujah and Mosul are over,” Khatteeb
said. “No serious reform will be implemented before voting in a new government
after the 2017 general elections.”Current events in Iraq and Lebanon point to
possible dramatic changes in the next election cycles for both countries. Change
appears to be brewing in the Levant, where sectarian politics is no more a
justification for rampant corruption and lack of opportunity, justice and
security.
“Political parties cannot claim to be the only representative of the
population,” former Lebanese Interior Minister Ziad Baroud told Al-Monitor.
“They have to share power with families, civil society and independents from now
on. The mood is changing. The silent majority is silent no more.”
Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on June 11-12/16
Canadian court hands over Iran
assets to terror victims’ families
AFP, Toronto Saturday, 11
June 2016
A Canadian judge has ordered Iran’s non-diplomatic land and bank accounts in
Canada to be handed over to victims of attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah, sponsored
by Tehran. The judgment, obtained by Agence France-Presse on Friday, awards a
reported $13 million to families of Americans who died in eight bombings or
hostage-takings in Buenos Aires, Israel, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia from 1983 to
2002. Hundreds died in the attacks. The families, led by the parents of Marla
Bennett, who was killed when a suicide bomber struck at a cafeteria at Hebrew
University in Israel in 2002, had successfully sued the Islamic republic in the
United States. The US court found that Iran was responsible for training Hamas
and Hezbollah operatives, as well as backing the groups financially. But those
judgments remain largely unpaid. “Terrorism is one of the world’s greatest
threats,” Ontario Superior Court Justice Glenn Hainey said in his decision. “The
broad issue before the court is whether Iran is entitled to immunity from the
jurisdiction of Canadian courts for its support of terrorism.” The Canadian
lawsuits were brought under a relatively new law passed in 2012 that allows
victims and their families to collect damages from state sponsors of terrorism.
Canada lists Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism. Iran did not defend against
either the US or Canadian lawsuits. The ruling comes as Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau’s Liberal government seeks to re-establish diplomatic ties with Iran,
and following Tehran’s detention of a Montreal professor, Homa Hoodfar, without
charges.
Tehran urged to release
British-Iranian charity worker
AFP, London Saturday, 11 June 2016/The husband of an Iranian-British charity
worker who has been held without charge in Iran since April on Friday called for
her release at a rally outside the Iranian embassy in London. Nazanin
Zaghari-Ratcliffe, 37, was arrested at Tehran airport on April 3 as she prepared
to return to Britain with the couple’s daughter Gabriella after visiting family
in Iran, Richard Ratcliffe told AFP. Gabriella, who turns two on Saturday, was
born in Britain and has a British passport, which was confiscated by the Iranian
authorities, leaving her stranded with her grandparents in Iran. His wife, who
spent the first 45 days in solitary confinement, was later transferred to Karman
prison, 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) from Tehran, although Ratcliffe said the
family had not received “any news since Sunday.” Britain’s Foreign Office has
said it has raised the case “repeatedly and at the highest levels” and will
continue to do so at “every available opportunity.”Middle East Minister, Tobias
Ellwood, had met the family to reassure them that diplomats would “continue to
do all we can on this case,” a ministry spokesman told AFP. Zaghari-Ratcliffe
works for the Thomson Reuters Foundation, a charity organization coordinating
training programs for journalists around the world. “She has nothing to do with
Iran in her work and the foundation doesn’t work with Iran anyway, so we have no
idea why she has been detained for more than two months, first in isolation and
then in a common cell,” foundation CEO Monique Villa told AFP. “Now we don’t
know because she seems to have disappeared from where she was.” Ratcliffe led
the celebrations for his daughter’s birthday, talking to her on Skype, leading a
mass singalong of “Happy Birthday” and placing a giant card and balloons on the
steps of the embassy. The case of 76-year-old Iranian-British man Kamal Foroughi,
was also brought up at the rally by his son Kamran. Foroughi was arrested in
2011 and sentenced to eight years in prison on spying charges, having spent two
years in detention without charge.
Iraq’s Sadr warns of
‘million-man’ demo after Ramadan pause
AFP, Najaf Saturday, 11 June 2016/Powerful Iraqi cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on
Saturday called a halt to anti-government protests during Ramadan but warned
that a “million-man” demonstration would be held after the Muslim holy month has
ended.
“I found it would be beneficial to take a break and postpone all of this until
the end of the month,” he said in a statement. His followers have been holding
weekly protests to demand reform and an end to corruption, bringing the city to
a standstill every Friday as security forces deployed en masse. Sadr called for
the preparation of “a peaceful, popular million-man protest” after Ramadan ends
in July and warned that he would not rein in his forces if protesters were
confronted. Protesters led by Sadr supporters have breached Baghdad’s fortified
Green Zone twice already over the past two months, storming parliament and the
prime minister's office. The last time was on May 20 and saw tension in Baghdad
rise as Sadr’s militia Saraya al-Salam and other armed groups loyal to rival
factions in government faced off on the street. Several protesters were also
killed and wounded by the security forces defending the Green Zone, which is
home to the country’s top institutions.
Aid enters besieged area of
central Syria
AFP, Beirut Saturday, 11 June 2016/A convoy carrying food aid entered a
rebel-controlled area under regime siege in central Syria on Saturday, the Red
Cross said, in the second such delivery there in months. It came as the regime
bombarded another opposition-held town outside Damascus, preventing its besieged
residents from receiving their first food delivery in years, a resident and
monitor said. Thirty-one trucks ferried in food for 14,200 families to al-Houla
in the central province of Homs on Saturday, a spokesman for the International
Committee of the Red Cross said. The land convoy - the second to the area since
March 22 - also included mattresses, blankets, diapers, vaccines, water pumps
and generators, Pawel Krzysiek said. The Al-Houla delivery comes just days after
two long-awaited aid convoys to rebel areas outside the capital. Trucks entered
Daraya late Thursday with food including rice, lentils, sugar and flour for the
first time since the regime laid siege to the town in late 2012. But regime
helicopters dropped at least eight barrel bombs - crude, unguided explosive
devices - on Daraya on Saturday for the second straight day, the Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights said. “People want the aid but they’re paralysed by
the ongoing bombardment,” activist and Daraya local council member Shadi Matar
said. “People are hiding in underground bunkers. Some families have even dug
holes in their homes to hide,” he told AFP. Aid agencies said supplies also
reached Douma on Friday in the first UN delivery there since autumn 2013. The
United Nations says nearly 600,000 people live in besieged areas in Syria - most
surrounded by government forces - and another four million in hard-to-reach
areas. Peace talks towards ending a civil war that has killed more than 280,000
people have stalled over issues including lack of humanitarian access. The UN’s
humanitarian agency said on Friday it was still awaiting permission from
Damascus to deliver aid to the besieged areas of Al-Waer in Homs province and
Zabadani in rural Damascus. The United States and France lashed out at Syria’s
government on Friday over the barrel bombs attacks on Daraya.
ISIS claims blasts near
Shiite shrine in Damascus
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Saturday, 11 June 2016/ISIS has claimed
responsibility on Saturday for a car blast and suicide bombings in Syria’s south
Damascus quarter that killed at least 20 people, the militants-linked Amaq News
Agency reported.A monitoring group said at least 20 people were killed,
including 13 civilians, in the twin bombings outside a Shiite shrine near
Syria’s capital on Saturday. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said more
than 30 people were wounded in the attacks at the entrance to the Sayyida Zeinab
shrine. Earlier, Reuters said at least eight people were killed and scores
wounded in the blasts on Saturday in the Damascus suburb that contains Syria’s
holiest Shiite Muslim shrine, state television said. State media, which flashed
the news, did not give further details about the bombings in the Sayeda Zeinab
area, where at least three bomb attacks claimed by ISIS militants have killed
and injured scores of people this year. A Shiite religious cleric on the
state-run Ikhbariyah TV channel said the car bomb blast was not far from the
shrine area in the main al-Taen street. The heavily garrisoned area is a
well-known stronghold of Lebanon’s powerful Shiite Hezbollah group, a major
backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Thousands of Iraqi and Afghan Shiite
militia recruits who volunteer to fight against the Sunni rebel groups trying to
bring down Assad’s government normally come to the area before being sent to
frontlines across Syria. They say they come to Syria to defend the Sayeda Zeinab
shrine from radical Sunni extremists. (With Reuters)
Thousands of civilians
trapped in Syria’s Manbij
AFP, Beirut Saturday, 11 June 2016/Tens of thousands of civilians are trapped
inside the northern Syrian city of Manbij after US-backed fighters surrounded
the ISIS stronghold, a monitor said Saturday. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
encircled Manbij on Friday, severing ISIS’ principal supply route between Turkey
and its de facto Syrian capital, Raqqa. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights,
a British-based monitor, said warplanes from a US-led coalition were conducting
heavy bombing raids on Manbij. “Tens of thousands of civilians who are still
there can’t leave as all the routes out of the city are cut,” Observatory head
Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP. The US envoy to the anti-ISIS coalition backing the
SDF, Brett McGurk, said the surrounding of Manbij had severed an important route
for ISIS fighters. “ISIL terrorists now completely surrounded with no way out,”
he wrote on Twitter, using another name for ISIS. The city has been held by ISIS
since 2014 and the Observatory said that thousands of inhabitants had recently
fled Manbij as air strikes intensified. “Bakeries in the town haven’t been open
since Friday and food is beginning to become rare,” Abdel Rahman said. He said
that at least 159 ISIS fighters, 22 SDF troops and 37 civilians had been killed,
mainly by bombing raids, since the alliance launched its Manbij offensive on May
31. Syria’s civil war began with the brutal repression of anti-government
demonstrations in 2011 and has now killed more than 280,000 people and displaced
millions.
Israel razes home of Palestinian teen for settler’s murder
AFP, Palestinian Territories Saturday, 11 June 2016/Israel's army destroyed on
Saturday the home of a Palestinian teenager accused of stabbing a Jewish woman
to death at her home in a West Bank settlement. The demolition took place in the
West Bank village of Beit Amra, with bulldozers flattening an entire building as
family members looked on, according to an AFP photographer. The murder in
January of Dafna Meir, a 38-year-old nurse and mother of six, provoked fierce
reaction among Israelis and prompted a personal vow from Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu that the assailant's house would be razed.
Israeli forces arrested 15-year-old Palestinian suspect Murad Ideis in a raid on
his family home days after the attack. Israel regularly demolishes the homes of
alleged attackers in what it describes as a deterrent. Rights groups say it
amounts to collective punishment, with families forced to suffer for the acts of
relatives. The army said Saturday's demolition was carried out without incident.
It also said it had made preparations for the destruction of the nearby homes of
two Palestinians accused of shooting and killing four Israelis at a Tel Aviv
nightspot on Wednesday in the deadliest attack in a months-long wave of
violence. Cousins Khaled Mohammad Makhamrah, 22, Mohammad Ahmad Makhamrah, 21,
are both from the town of Yatta, around one kilometre (0.6 miles) east of Beit
Amra. Wednesday's attack, which also wounded five bystanders, has prompted a
range of measures from Israel, including a decision to temporarily bar entry for
all Palestinians. Violence since October has killed at least 207 Palestinians,
32 Israelis, two Americans, an Eritrean and a Sudanese. Most of the Palestinians
were carrying out knife, gun or car-ramming attacks, Israeli authorities say.
Others were killed in clashes with security forces or by Israeli air strikes in
the Gaza Strip.
Egypt’s Islamic authority
downplays ISIS threat to destroy pyramids
Staff writer, Al Arabiya English Saturday, 11 June 2016/Egypt’s Islamic
authority has downplayed recent threats by ISIS that the militant group could
destroy the Giza pyramids, the state-owned Ahram Online reported Friday. “This
is unlikely in Egypt in light of a strong state and deterrent institutions,” Dar
Al-Ifta, the Egyptian state body that issues Islamic edicts, said in a
statement. Dar Al-Ifta said such threats are “unrealistic” amid what it
described as series of successful security blows that led to a “decline in
terrorist attacks” in Egypt. ISIS made the threat in a 10-minute video it
released showing its militants blowing up a 2,500-year-old temple in Iraq.
Demolishing the temple of Nabu - the Babylonian god of wisdom - in the ancient
Assyrian city of Nimrud in northern Iraq is the latest of ISIS attacks against
historic sites in the country and its neighboring Syria.
More support for Afghan
troops part of latest Obama strategy
The Associated Press, Washington Saturday, 11 June 2016/Far from ending the two
wars he inherited from the Bush administration, Barack Obama is wrestling with
an expanded set of conflicts in the final months of his presidency, from Iraq
and Afghanistan to Libya and Syria, with no end in sight. In Afghanistan, where
a Taliban resurgence has upset Washington’s “exit strategy,” Obama is giving the
US military wider latitude to support Afghan forces, both in the air and on the
ground. The White House says US forces are not taking on a new mission in
Afghanistan but rather will “more proactively support” government forces. That
amounts to an acknowledgement that the Afghans need more help than the
Pentagonhad anticipated last year, and it is a signal to allies not to abandon
the US-led coalition. Defense Secretary Ash Carter will be discussing this next
week in talks at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
The 9,800 US troops in Afghanistan are scheduled to drop to 5,500 by the end of
this year, but the pace of that decline has yet to be decided. One factor in
deciding future troop levels is the extent to which NATO allies are willing to
remain involved in training and advising the Afghans.Five years ago this month,
in announcing the beginning of his effort to “wind down this war” in
Afghanistan, Obama declared that “the tide of war is receding.” He had ended the
US combat role in Iraq, but since then has gradually expanded a renewed US
involvement there against the ISIS group. He also put US warplanes in the skies
over Libya in 2011 in the name of preventing a slaughter of civilians, only to
see chaos ensue, and now small teams of US special operations forces have been
involved in activities there. Libya, along with Syria and to a lesser extent
Afghanistan, became a breeding ground for extremism in a wider conflict against
the ISIS. The administration says it remains committed to a partnership with
Afghanistan to ensure that it does not revert to a haven for al-Qaida or other
extremists with global reach, as it was before the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. In
a letter to Obama last week, several former US ambassadors to Kabul and five
retired US generals who commanded American troops there urged that the president
keep current troop levels through the end of his term, allowing his successor to
consider next steps. They argued that Afghanistan remains important to the
broader campaign to defeat global terror movements.
“If Afghanistan were to revert to the chaos of the 1990s, millions of refugees
would again seek shelter in neighboring countries and overseas, dramatically
intensifying the severe challenges already faced in Europe and beyond,” they
wrote. “Afghanistan is a place where we should wish to consolidate and lock down
our provisional progress into something of a more lasting asset.”With US special
operations forces already focused on al-Qaida remnants in Afghanistan, the
Afghan government says it can handle the Taliban if the US expands its air
support. That is at the core of Obama’s decision, disclosed Thursday, to
authorize US commanders to increase air support and to allow US soldiers to
accompany and advise Afghan conventional forces on the ground in the same way
they have been assisting Afghan commando forces.
This will make a difference on the battlefield, Carter said Friday, by enabling
US commanders to anticipate situations in which US support is needed, rather
than to be reactive. He did not mention it, but an illustration of the problem
with being reactive is the Taliban’s takeover of the northern city of Kunduz
last September, which was reversed only after US special operations forces
intervened. The intervention, while ultimately successful, led to one of the
worst US mistakes of the 15-year war when an AC-130 gunship pummeled a hospital,
killing 42 people. Carter said the changes Obama approved amount to “using the
forces we have in a better way, as we go through this fighting season,” adding,
“It’s a good use of the combat power we have there.”Gen. John F. Campbell, who
was the top US commander in Afghanistan until March and was among the retired
generals who signed last week’s letter to Obama, said in an interview Friday
that although he had not seen the specifics of the White House decision to
expand US military authorities, he welcomed the move. Before Gen.John Nicholson
succeeded him in Kabul in March, Campbell urged the administration to grant
expanded authorities to assist the Afghans, arguing that they faced an
especially difficult fight against the Taliban this summer. “I had asked for
more authorities for the commander on the ground to help the Afghans out, and if
this is what that is, I would be all for it,” he said. “We have an ally there
that we need to continue to support.”
Seven civilians killed by
shelling in Benghazi: hospital official
Reuters, Benghazi, Libya Saturday, 11 June 2016/At least seven civilians have
been killed and eight wounded by shelling in the eastern Libyan city of
Benghazi, a hospital official said on Saturday. He said the shelling had taken
place on Thursday and Friday in residential areas close the frontlines in
Benghazi, which has seen heavy fighting in some neighborhoods over the past two
years. Forces loyal to military commander Khalifa Haftar launched a campaign
against Islamists and other opponents in Benghazi in 2014. Haftar’s forces made
substantial gains earlier this year, but fighting on the edges of the city has
continued. A special forces spokesman, Fadel al-Hassi, said shelling over the
past two days had come from the Sabri and Souq al-Hut districts in northern
Benghazi, where Haftar’s opponents have been holding out. The claim could not
immediately be verified. Earlier this week jets pounded Sabri and Souq al-Hut
and at least six men from Haftar’s forces were killed in fighting on the ground.
Libya has been in turmoil since veteran ruler Muammar Qaddafi was forced from
power in an uprising five years ago. A United Nations-backed unity government is
designed to replace two rival governments that have competed for power from
Tripoli and from the east since 2014, backed by complex alliances of armed
groups.
Libyan forces ‘retake port’
in ISIS bastion Sirte
AFP, Washington/Tripoli Saturday, 11 June 2016/Forces allied with Libya’s unity
government said Saturday they had recaptured the port in the militant stronghold
of Sirte from ISIS fighters who are surrounded inside the city. The forces also
retook a residential area in the east of Sirte, the main ISIS base in the North
African country, a spokesman for the forces, Rida Issa, told AFP. The fall of
Sirte, the hometown of ousted dictator Muammar Qaddafi, would be a major setback
to the extremists who have also lost territory in Syria and Iraq where they have
declared an Islamic “caliphate.”Libya’s unity government forces are waging
fierce street battled with the jihadists around a sprawling Qaddafi-era
conference center which once hosted international summits but now houses an ISIS
command center. Warplanes have carried out air strikes around the center and
other ISIS positions inside the city, according to social media accounts
belonging to the anti-militant operation. Eleven members of the forces loyal to
the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) were killed and 45 wounded on
Friday, mostly by sniper fire, Issa said. On Friday, a top US presidential envoy
said he was “encouraged” by progress in Libya, where pro-government forces are
bearing down on ISIS’s bastion at Sirte. Barack Obama’s anti-ISIS envoy Brett
McGurk said the exponential growth of the extremist group had stopped and
fighter numbers had plateaued around 5,000. Post-revolutionary power struggles
have prevented Libya’s fledgling government and its allies from ousting ISIS
from its Gulf of Sidra safe-haven. “I just don’t want to get ahead of the
situation because it remains pretty fluid. But we’re encouraged by the progress
they’re making,” said McGurk. “They’ve been able to control Sirte by force. But
once you have a credible force on the ground that moves against them, there is a
chance that they could crack pretty quickly.” “But I don’t think we’re there
yet.” Libyan officials had expressed some surprise at the speed of ISIS’s
retreat. “The battle wasn’t as difficult as we thought it would be,” said one
official. “Maybe we exaggerated their numbers?” The loss of Sirte would be a
major blow to ISIS at a time when it is under mounting pressure in Syria and
Iraq. But analysts have warned the city’s fall would not spell the end of the
extremist in Libya, where they have fed on political and military divisions
since the 2011 uprising that killed Qaddafi. If pro-government forces manage to
push through Sirte, on the other side they will find forces loyal to General
Khalifa Haftar, who has refused to recognize the government of national accord.
The specter of a showdown had been one reason for the delay in tackling ISIS.
McGurk said the United States was “prepared to obviously work with General
Haftar under the umbrella of the Government of National Accord.”But he added:
“Our position is very clear that any armed actor on the field in Libya should
recognize the authority of that civilian government.”
Bangladesh detains 1,600 in
drive against Islamist radicals
The Associated Press, Bangladesh Saturday, 11 June 2016
Authorities have rounded up about 1,600 criminal suspects, including a few dozen
believed to be Islamist radicals, in a nationwide crackdown aimed at halting a
wave of brutal attacks on minorities and activists in Bangladesh, police said
Saturday. The attacks - including two Hindus in the last week - have alarmed the
international community and raised questions about whether Prime Minister Sheikh
Hasina's secular government can maintain security for minorities in the Sunni
Muslim-majority country. Police and paramilitary soldiers fanned out across the
country Thursday night, raiding suspected militant hideouts and detaining about
1,600 people by Friday night, police said. The majority of those detained,
however, are described as petty criminals. Only 37 of them are suspected to be
radical militants, according to police spokesman Kamrul Islam. Those include
three charged with alleged membership in the banned militant outfit Jama'atul
Mujahideen Bangladesh. None of those arrested is believed to be a high-level
operator who might have organized or ordered attacks, police said. All the
detainees are being held in jail. Hasina's government has faced criticism for
failing to prosecute suspects for at least 18 killings carried out over the past
two years. Victims include atheist bloggers, foreign aid workers, university
professors, gay rights activists and religious minorities including Hindus,
Christians and Shiite Muslims. Hasina had announced the anti-militancy campaign
after the wife of a police superintendent was shot and stabbed to death on June
5 as she was waiting with her son at a bus stop. The victim had been an ardent
campaigner against militants, and her murder stunned the country's
establishment, many of whom considered the victim as one of their own. Speaking
to Parliament on Wednesday, Hasina vowed to root out radicals bent on spreading
terror and violence in a bid to restore the country to Islamic rule. “If they
think they could turn Bangladesh upside down, they are wrong,” she said. “They
will be exposed to justice in the soil of Bangladesh and their patrons will also
not be spared.”
The attacks have followed a pattern: A group of young men wielding knives or
machetes approach their victim as his or her guard is down, perhaps while
strolling down the street or relaxing at home. The attackers spew hateful
language, then hack and stab at the victim before disappearing, often without a
trace. Many victims are killed with a machete blow to the back of the neck.
Authorities have arrested some suspects in some of the 18 attacks, mostly
low-level operatives accused of following orders to carry out attacks, but none
has been prosecuted. Police have said they are waiting until investigations are
complete before taking any suspects to court. Amnesty International has
criticized the government for inaction, saying it is creating a culture of
impunity. It also said authorities are failing to address increasing numbers of
reports of people receiving threats. “The brazen announcement by violent groups
that they will continue targeting those they perceive as 'insulting Islam'
should shake the Bangladeshi authorities out of their complacency,” Champa
Patel, the right's group's director in South Asia, said in a statement.
“Ignoring the problem is not a solution. The authorities must categorically
condemn these killings, carry out a prompt, thorough, impartial and transparent
investigation, deliver justice for the victims, hold the perpetrators
accountable, and protect those still under threat.”Nearly all the attacks have
been claimed by transnational Islamist extremist groups, including the ISIS
group and various affiliates of al-Qaeda. The killing Friday morning of a Hindu
ashram worker in northern Bangladesh was also claimed by the ISIS group,
according to the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors jihadist activity
online and cited the Amaq News Agency. Hasina's government, however, says
transnational terror groups have no presence in the South Asian nation of 160
million. It blames the attacks on domestic groups aligned with political
opposition parties, though it has presented no evidence of such a campaign and
the opposition denies the allegations.On Friday, the opposition BNP party said
it was worried the government campaign against extremists would lead to efforts
to suppress opposition parties. “The crackdown is a strategy which the
government earlier used to suppress the people's movement. We fear that they
will again oppress the opposition in the name of conducting a crackdown,” BNP
Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir said.
ISIS fighters kill six Afghan
police
AFP, Afghanistan Saturday, 11 June 2016/ISIS fighters stormed a police base in
eastern Afghanistan Saturday, killing at least six officials in a pre-dawn
attack, months after the government claimed to have defeated the group. The
attack in Haska Mina district in Nangarhar, bordering Pakistan, comes a day
after three worshippers were killed and 70 others wounded in a bombing inside a
mosque during Friday prayers in the restive province. “The district police chief
Shah Mahmood was martyred along with five other policemen” in Saturday’s attack,
Ataullah Khogyani, spokesman for Nangarhar’s governor told AFP.
“Eleven Daesh fighters were also killed and seven others were wounded,” he
added, using the Arabic acronym for the group. ISIS fighters are making inroads
into Afghanistan, winning over sympathizers, recruiting followers and
challenging the Taliban on their own turf, primarily in the country’s east. But
in March Afghan President Ashraf Ghani announced that the Islamists had been
defeated after local security forces claimed victory in a months-long operation
against the group. The group also intermittently airs propaganda through a
mobile radio station, which the government claimed to have destroyed in an air
strike in February. Militant strikes have recently increased in Nangarhar. Those
killed during Friday prayers in Nangarhar’s Rodat district included the prayer
leader and a child, officials said. “An attack deliberately targeting civilian
members of a community praying together in a mosque can never be justified and
highlights the perpetrators’ intent to destroy lives, and spread terror among
the civilian population,” the UN said in a statement. The Taliban, which is in a
much stronger position than ISIS in Afghanistan, distanced itself from the
attack and no other group has so far claimed responsibility. American officials
said Friday President Barack Obama has ordered the US military to tackle the
resurgent Taliban more directly - in tandem with Afghan allies, ratcheting up a
15-year conflict he had vowed to end.
North Carolina man faces
charges after leaving bacon at mosque
Karen Brooks, Reuters Saturday, 11 June 2016/A North Carolina man faces ethnic
intimidation charges after leaving bacon at a mosque and making death threats to
its members as they prepared for worship in observance of Ramadan, Islam's holy
month, authorities said on Friday. Russell Thomas Langford of Fayetteville was
arrested late on Thursday, the Hoke County Sheriff's Office said. He is a major
in the US Army Reserve, WTVD-TV in Raleigh said, quoting officials at Fort Bragg
military base in North Carolina. On Thursday afternoon, members of the Masjid Al
Madina in Raeford found two packages of bacon at the mosque entrance, the
sheriff's office said. Observant Muslims are prohibited from consuming pork
products. Ramadan is Islam's holy month, during which believers abstain from
eating and drinking during daylight hours. Langford is charged with ethnic
intimidation, assault with a deadly weapon, going armed to the terror of the
public, communicating threats, stalking and disorderly conduct, the sheriff's
office said in a statement. Officials with the sheriff's office and Fort Bragg
military base could not be reached for comment on Friday. "We have called for
stepped-up police presence not only for that mosque but others in that state,"
said Ibrahim Hooper, spokesman for the Council on American-Islamic Relations, a
Muslim advocacy group. "Every mosque all over the country has nightly Ramadan
activities, so they're vulnerable," he said. A Chevy Tahoe was in the parking
lot when the bacon was found, and the driver of the Tahoe, later identified as
Langford, followed one of the members home, the sheriff's statement said. The
suspect returned in the evening, showed a gun to one of the members, a retired
Army captain and Muslim chaplain at Fort Bragg, and threatened to kill him,
according to a report by WRAL-TV in Raleigh, N.C. The chaplain invited him
inside to talk, but the man left, the report said. Later, the man returned in
his SUV and tried to run over a group of people who were going inside the mosque
for evening Ramadan prayers, the report said. Investigators found firearms,
ammunition and other weapons inside Langford's vehicle, according to the
sheriff's statement.
Romney says he will not
consider running for White House
Reuters Saturday, 11 June 2016/Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential
nominee who has led a movement to derail Donald Trump’s nomination, said on
Friday he would not consider running for the White House. In an interview with
CNN, Romney said he will not vote for either Trump, the presumptive Republican
nominee, or Democrat Hillary Clinton in the Nov. 8 election.
UN slams Israel after
Palestinian permit ban
Reuters, United Nations Saturday, 11 June 2016/Israel’s cancellation of entry
permits for Palestinians following a deadly attack in Tel Aviv may amount to
collective punishment, which is banned under international law, the United
Nations’ top human rights official said on Friday. Israel responded that its
actions were “legitimate steps in order to defend its citizens from
terrorists.”The Israeli military on Thursday revoked permits for 83,000
Palestinians to visit Israel and said it would send hundreds more troops to the
occupied West Bank a day after a Palestinian gun attack that killed four
Israelis in Tel Aviv. UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al
Hussein condemned the attack, the largest loss of Israeli life in a single
attack since the current surge in violence, spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani said.
But he is concerned about the revoking of permits “which may amount to
prohibited collective punishment and will only increase the sense of injustice
and frustration felt by Palestinians in this very tense time”, she told a news
briefing. Israel’s actions included suspension of 204 work permits held by
individuals in the extended families of the alleged attackers, she said, and
Israeli security forces sealed off their entire hometown. The Geneva Conventions
say punishing people for crimes they have not personally committed can amount to
collective punishment, Shamdasani said. US State Department spokesman Mark Toner
declined to characterize the Israeli action as collective punishment but called
on Israel to avoid steps that might escalate tensions. “Any time you take
sweeping actions like this, there is the possibility ... that these actions will
only inflame tensions and escalate tensions,” Toner told reporters. “We want to
see any actions to be temporary in nature and to not impact the lives of normal
Palestinian citizens,” he added. Israel’s diplomatic mission in Geneva said the
comment by Zeid’s office OHCHR “breaks a new record of cynicism and double
standards.”“The OHCHR is using the murder of innocent Israelis to attack Israel.
Once again, instead of putting itself by the side of the Israeli victims, it
settles for a forced, weak condemnation, and rushes to defend the terrorists,”
it said. “Like any other country in the same situation, Israel is taking
legitimate steps in order to defend its citizens from terrorists who are backed
by the incitement and the glorification of death and martyrdom, inflated by the
Palestinian leadership and society,” it said. Israel has an obligation to bring
those responsible to account for their crimes, which it was doing, Shamdasani
said. “However, the measures taken against the broader population punish not the
perpetrators of the crime, but tens - and maybe hundreds - of thousands of
innocent Palestinians,” she said. The entry permits had been issued to
Palestinians from the Israeli-occupied West Bank to visit relatives during the
Muslim holy month of Ramadan now in progress.There was no immediate claim of
responsibility for the assault by the two gunmen on Wednesday in a fashionable
shopping and dining market near Israel’s Defense Ministry, but Hamas and other
Palestinian militant groups were quick to praise it.
Meeting with families
in Gohardasht prison with bare feet
Saturday, 11 June 2016/NCRI – In an act of protest against the suppression by
the mullahs’ regime, political prisoners in Iran’s notorious Gohardasht (Rajai
Shahr) Prison went to the meeting hall with bare feet this week. According to
reports from inside the prison, on Wednesday, June 8, following cruel and
degrading behavior of the prison guards in Gohardasht Prison forcing prisoners
to wear slippers when meeting with families, the political prisoners in Hall 12
of the prison in a unified action went to visit their families with bare feet.
The political prisoners’ move was applauded by the ordinary prisoners.
Unions rally in Tehran and
Asaluyeh
NCRI/Friday, 10 June 2016/Nishapur Governor Sentenced for Installing Banners
Accusing Regime of Theft. Further anti-regime protests have been held across
Iran by workers and teachers demanding their minimum rights.
Freelance workers of natural gas production site continue protest in Asaluyeh
On Thursday, June 9, a protest by the freelance workers of Phase 19 of
Asaluyeh’s natural gas production site continued into its fourth day.
The protest against unpaid and delayed salary payments began on Monday, June 6.
Workers and engineers of Gama and Niroopazhouh companies also joined the
demonstration as they protested against the refusal to settle salary payments
that have not been made since February 2016. The workers primarily gathered in
the vicinity of their workplace to demand their receivables.
This week’s protests contribute to the overall growth of similar such
demonstrations throughout the country. Freelance workers under contract to the
subsidiaries of Petropars, for instance, have been protesting since last year.
Athletes Protest in Kerman
The athletes of Kerman Province, central Iran, launched a protest this week
against the unstable situation of sport and the lackluster performance of the
regime’s sports bodies in the province. The protesters rallied in front of the
building housing the Governor General’s Office, holding placards on which were
written slogans including: "Take effective measures for the situation of sport
in this province."
Nishapur Governor Sentenced for Installing Banners Accusing Regime of Theft
The mayor of Nishapur (Neyshabur), north-west Iran, has been sentenced to 10
years in prison by the fundamentalist regime’s Judiciary for having installed a
large poster in the city, which called attention to accusations that the regime
had stolen and misappropriated large sums of public money.
Truckers Strike in Bushehr Port
A group of truckers at the port of Bushehr, southern Iran, went on strike on
Sunday and continued it at least through Thursday. They have been protesting
against the predatory and discriminatory policies in the distribution of loads
formulated by the brokers affiliated with the mullahs' Regime.
Retired Teachers Protest outside Parliament
On Wednesday, June 8, a group of retired teachers protested against their living
conditions. They gathered in front of the regime’s parliament building in Tehran
carrying placards to call attention to a critical situation in which many
teachers are living below the poverty line while their salaries consistently
fail to keep up with the rate of inflation.
Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources
published on
June 11-12/16
Iran- Why Mullahs Need the Old
Jaw-shutter
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/June
11/16
Ever since the mullahs appeared in Iran as a distinct profession in the 19th
century, they have developed paraphernalia of devices and contraptions linked to
their trade. These include a range of rosaries with 30, 90 or 180 beads, prayer
mud-cubes (mohr) made from the soil of Karbala and, of course, items of clothing
with different functions including a flowing cape with pockets in which one
could hide a book, a loaf of bread or, in more dangerous and recent times, a
Colt.45 with a silencer. One favourite item in that paraphernalia has always
been a lengthy piece of cloth attached to the mandatory turban and designed to
close one’s jaw in a way to make speaking difficult. In Persian, the item is
known as “chanehband” (literally: jaw-shutter) but most mullahs prefer the
Arabic term: taht al-hanak which means under the jaw. One attaches the taht al-hanak
to the back of the turban and, when needed, unwinds it around the neck, then
knotting it under the chin to force the lower lip against the upper one, making
speech difficult.
In the good, or if you wish, bad old days, mullahs used the contraption when
they entered “cheleh”, a 40-day withdrawal from the pubic in which they read the
first 30 surahs of the Koran, maintained a vow of silence and, presumably, tried
to discover the deeper meaning of things.
Mullahs wore taht al-hanak when they were supposed to be deep in thought and/or
at prayer. However, they often wore them when they didn’t wish to answer
questions from their murids (followers). In the early 1900s when some Iranians
had mastered enough courage to lampoon the mullahs, the satirist poet Iraj Mirza,
today banned in the Islamic Republic, sent a taht al-hanak to Sheikh Fadlallah
Nuri, a militant pro-Russian mullah who opposed the advent of constitutional
rule in Iran. The poet wanted the mullah to shut his mouth and engage in prayers
rather than making political statements.
Judging from photos in the media and TV footage, few political mullahs in Iran
today appear to possess a taht al-hanak. And this explains why some of them seem
to be struck by logorrhea, unable to stop talking about everything under the sun
as long as it has nothing to do with their original business which is theology.
Take “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei, for example. He should enter the Guinness
Book of Records for the number of speeches made in a single year and the amazing
variety of topics; everything except religion and theology. He has also
published six books ranging from how to destroy Israel to how to write Islamic
poetry, the secrets of a successful marriage, rules of a healthy diet, a pseudo-Chomskyan
linguistics to stop the rising influence of the English language, and, more
recently, how the late Ayatollah (or Imam) Khomeini revived Islam before he
died.
Khamenei isn’t alone among mullahs to properly budget his vocal sorties. In any
case he is more of a politician than a theologian and thus could be excused if
he demonstrates an inordinate thirst for talking.
But think of other ayatollahs, say my favorite Hussein Alam Al-Hoda from
Mash’had or the older Nasser Makarem Shirazi from Qom who seems duty-bound to
comment on everything under the sun with a view to providing catchy headlines
based on outlandish slogans. The better-educated ones, let’s say Muhammad
Khatami, who served as president for eight years, dish out the same nonsense by
talking of Hegel, Nietzsche and Hobbes as a prelude to blaming modern
civilization for mankind’s ills.
Don’t take me wrong. I think mullahs have as much right to talk about whatever
they wish as do academics, columnists, taxi-drivers and grave-diggers. The
problem is that the outside world regards Iran as a theocratic regime in which
mullahs constitute the ruling elite, meaning their views reflect the official
position of Iran as a nation-state. In the same way in a country where the
military hold power, any statement by officers, even lower-ranked ones, attracts
special attention.
However, because nothing about Iran is ever simple, the cliché that is
“mullaharchy” isn’t as straight forward as it might seem. In fact, only a
minority of political mullahs, people like Khamenei or Makarem, are involved in
the confused and confusing power game that has been playing in Tehran since
Khomeini, helped by his Marxist and Stalinist allies, seized power in 1979.
The Khomeinists failed to destroy Iran as a nation-state but managed to create a
parallel reality based on the hodgepodge that is their ideology. Thus we have
two armies, two judiciaries, two bureaucracies and economies reflecting Iran’s
split personality as an ancient and proud nation-state and as a vehicle for a
sick new ideology.The talking mullahs represent this second Iran while the
overwhelming majority of Shi’ite clerics, including all the top theologians,
have always distanced themselves, and still do, from the Khomeinist system.
Thousands of them have paid the price for that position by suffering prison,
house-arrest, exile, de-frocking and even execution.
The damage done to Iran is the work of a minority of political mullahs who talk
too much, setting Iranians against one another, insulting minorities,
threatening critics, inciting violence and terror at home and creating enemies
abroad with their loose, cheap and, at times, revolting chatter magnified by
state-controlled mass media. Iran would benefit from a real “cheleh”, 40 days of
silence by the chattering mullahs. (One dare not hope for permanent silence by
them!) These chattering mullahs urgently need the taht al-hanak.
Coincidentally, the other day I learned that the best taht al-hanak, made of
pure double-woven silk, as well as the finest turbans, pointed slippers, abayahs
and rosaries are supplied by an exclusive shop in London’s Knightsbridge where
some of our chattering mullahs have maintained accounts for decades. The trouble
is that they don’t order any taht al-hanak. They should. It would do them a lot
of good, and a lot of good to Iran, too.
Russia and Israel are natural
allies, despite differences
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/June
11/16
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a regular guest in Moscow, and his
visit on Tuesday - the fourth in just nine months - is one of the bricks in a
strong, historical Russian-Israeli friendship. Both sides recognize that
cooperation is much more beneficial than geopolitical rivalry. The two leaders
have succeeded in building mutual trust, which contributes a lot to the general
climate between their countries. The idea of bilateral cooperation may seem
strange given that the two sides have many reasons to clash on foreign policy.
They differ considerably on Syria, for instance, but not only regarding the
conflict there. Russia’s support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad disturbs
Israel in the context of the Arab-Israeli conflict, because he considers the
Golan Heights Syrian territory. Russia has delivered S-300 air-defense systems
to Israel’s number-one enemy Iran. Moreover, Israel staunchly opposes the
nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions from Iran, to which Moscow has
contributed considerably. Russia is also actively developing ties with Gulf
countries, notably Saudi Arabia, changing - however slightly - the regional
balance of power, and in a sense complicating geopolitics. Moscow has
significantly degraded relations with Turkey following the latter’s shooting
down of a Russian fighter jet, while Israel is actively negotiating with Ankara.
Common ground
However, although Israel is considered part of the West, it did not join in
anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Western countries in response to Moscow’s
policies toward Ukraine and Crimea. Israel’s position has been one of
neutrality. Netanyahu has met Russian President Vladimir Putin much more often
than he has met the U.S. president. The reason is not geographic proximity. The
United States is withdrawing from the Middle East after 50 years of a strong and
stable presence. Countries are seeking alternative guarantees of safety, and in
the search for a relevant ally, Israel is drifting toward Russia.
Netanyahu said more than 1 million Israelis speak Russian, and Israelis are
exposed to Russian poetry, culture and literature. However, there are deeper
reasons for Israel’s tilt toward Moscow. In his interview with a Russian
journalist, Netanyahu said more than 1 million Israelis speak Russian, and
Israelis are exposed to Russian poetry, culture and literature. However, there
are deeper reasons for Israel’s tilt toward Moscow. Russia has succeeded in
establishing stable relations with counterparts from conflicting camps. This
makes of Moscow a perfect negotiator. Its assistance is significant in
Israeli-Palestinian talks, but admittedly no matter who is mediating, everything
depends on the will of the negotiating sides. Russia’s regional position is
strengthening, and its voice is being attentively heard. Netanyahu’s statement
that Russia is a global power, while Israel is a regional one, reflects Israel’s
desire to use its close ties with Moscow to pursue its geopolitical goals in the
region. Its friendship with Russia also enables it to force concessions and
preferential treatment from its Western allies, as a form of blackmail. For
Russia, its ties with Israel are important both in terms of its regional
policies and its ties with the West. Israel has a significant concentration of
former Russian compatriots and Russian-speaking citizens. Given that Russia is
now using its culture, former compatriots and Russian-speaking people as a form
of soft power, in a sense Israel is a natural ally. Netanyahu’s visit was
followed by that of the Palestinian and Jordanian foreign ministers. There is no
link or suspicions between these visits. They clearly illustrate what Faisal
Abbas, editor-in-chief of Al Arabiya English, said in his latest column, that
Russia “has recently re-emerged as a global power broker, particularly when it
comes to the Middle East.” It is logical for Israel to try to be close to such a
power broker.
The EU is
Coming to Close Down Your Free Speech
Douglas Murray/Gatestone Institute/June 11/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8234/eu-free-speech
The German Chancellor was not interested in the reinforcement of Europe's
external borders, the re-erection of its internal borders, the institution of a
workable asylum vetting system and the repatriation of people who had lied to
gain entry into Europe. Instead, Chancellor Merkel wanted to know how Facebook's
founder could help her restrict the free speech of Europeans, on Facebook and on
other social media.
Then, on May 31, the European Union announced a new online speech code to be
enforced by four major tech companies, including Facebook and YouTube.
It was clear from the outset that Facebook has a definitional problem as well as
a political bias in deciding on these targets. What is Facebook's definition of
'racism'? What is its definition of 'xenophobia'? What, come to that, is its
definition of 'hate speech'?
Of course the EU is a government -- and an unelected government at that -- so
its desire not just to avoid replying to its critics -- but to criminalise their
views and ban their contrary expressions -- is as bad as the government of any
country banning or criminalising the expression of opinion which is not
adulatory of the government.
People must speak up -- must speak up now, and must speak up fast -- in support
of freedom of speech before it is taken away from them. It is, sadly, not an
overstatement to say that our entire future depends on it.
It is nine months since Angela Merkel and Mark Zuckerberg tried to solve
Europe's migrant crisis. Of course having caused the migrant crisis by
announcing the doors of Europe as open to the entire third-world, Angela Merkel
particularly would have been in a good position actually to try to solve this
crisis.
But the German Chancellor was not interested in the reinforcement of Europe's
external borders, the re-erection of its internal borders, the institution of a
workable asylum vetting system and the repatriation of people who had lied to
gain entry into Europe. Instead, Chancellor Merkel was interested in Facebook.
When seated with Mark Zuckerberg, Frau Merkel wanted to know how the Facebook
founder could help her restrict the free speech of Europeans, on Facebook and on
other social media. Speaking to Zuckerberg at a UN summit last September (and
not aware that the microphones were picking her up) she asked what could be done
to restrict people writing things on Facebook which were critical of her
migration policy. 'Are you working on this?' she asked him. 'Yeah', Zuckerberg
replied.
In the months that followed, we learned that this was not idle chatter over
lunch. In January of this year, Facebook launched its 'Initiative for civil
courage online', committing a million Euros to fund non-governmental
organisations in its work to counter 'racist' and 'xenophobic' posts online. It
also promised to remove 'hate speech' and expressions of 'xenophobia' from the
Facebook website.
It was clear from the outset that Facebook has a definitional problem as well as
a political bias in deciding on these targets. What is Facebook's definition of
'racism'? What is its definition of 'xenophobia'? What, come to that, is its
definition of 'hate speech'? As for the political bias, why had Facebook not
previously considered how, for instance, to stifle expressions of open-borders
sentiments on Facebook? There are many people in Europe who have argued that the
world should have no borders and that Europe in particular should be able to be
lived in by anyone who so wishes. Why have people expressing such views on
Facebook (and there are many) not found their views censored and their posts
removed? Are such views not 'extreme'?
One problem with this whole area -- and a problem which has clearly not occurred
to Facebook -- is that these are questions which do not even have the same
answer from country to country. Any informed thinker on politics knows that
there are laws that apply in some countries that do not -- and often should not
-- apply in others. Contrary to the views of many transnational 'progressives',
the world does not have one set of universal laws and certainly does not have
universal customs. Hate-speech laws are to a very great extent an enforcement of
the realm of customs.
As such it is unwise to enforce policies on one country from another country
without at least a very deep understanding of that countries traditions and
laws. Societies have their own histories and their own attitudes towards their
most sensitive matters. For instance in Germany, France, the Netherlands and
some other European countries there are laws on the statute books relating to
the publication of Nazi materials and the propagation of material praising (or
even representing) Adolf Hitler or denying the Holocaust. The German laws
forbidding large-scale photographic representations of Hitler may look
ridiculous from London, but may look less ridiculous from Berlin. Certainly it
would take an enormously self-confident Londoner unilaterally to prescribe a
policy to change this German law.
To understand things which are forbidden, or able to be forbidden, in a society,
you would have to have an enormous confidence in your understanding of that
country's taboos and history, as well as its speech codes and speech laws. A ban
on the veneration of communist idols, for instance, may seem sensible, tasteful
or even desirable in one of the many countries which suffered under communism,
wish to minimise the suffering of the victims and prevent the resurrection of
such an ideology. Yet a universal ban on images or texts which extolled the
communist murderers of tens of millions of people would also make criminals of
the thousands of Westerners -- notably Americans -- who enjoy wearing Che
Guevara T-shirts or continue their adolescent fantasy that Fidel Castro is an
icon of freedom. Free societies generally have to permit the widest possible
array of opinion. But they will have different ideas of where legitimate
expression ends and where incitement begins.
So for Facebook and others to draw up their own attempt at a unilateral policy
of what constitutes hate-speech would be presumptuous even if it were not -- as
it is -- clearly politically biased from the outset. So it is especially
lamentable that this movement to an enforced hate-speech code gained additional
force on May 31, when the European Union announced a new online speech code to
be enforced by four major tech companies, including Facebook and YouTube. Of
course, the EU is a government -- and an unelected government at that -- so its
desire not just to avoid replying to its critics -- but to criminalise their
views and ban their contrary expressions -- is as bad as the government of any
country banning or criminalising the expression of opinion which is not
adulatory of the government.
That these are not abstract issues but ones exceedingly close to home has been
proven – as though it needed proving – by the decision of Facebook to suspend
the account of Gatestone's Swedish expert, Ingrid Carlqvist. In the last year
Sweden took in between 1 and 2% additional people to its population. Similar
numbers are expected this year. As anyone who has studied the situation will
know, this is a society heading towards a breakdown of its own creation, caused
(at the most benign interpretation) by its own 'open-hearted' liberalism.
Countries with welfare models such as Sweden's cannot take in such numbers of
people without major financial challenges. And societies with a poor integration
history cannot possibly integrate such vast numbers of people when they come at
such speed. As anyone who has travelled around there can tell, Sweden is a
country under enormous and growing strain.
There is a phase in waking up to such change which constitutes denial. The EU,
the Swedish government and a vast majority of the Swedish press have no desire
to hear critiques of a policy which they have created or applauded; the
consequences will one day be laid at their door and they wish to postpone that
day, even indefinitely. So instead of tackling the fire they started, they have
decided to attack those who are pointing to the fact that they have set the
building they are standing in on fire. In such a situation it becomes not just a
right but a duty of free people to point out facts even if other people might
not want to hear them. Only a country sliding towards autocracy and chaos, with
a governing class intent on avoiding blame, could possibly allow the silencing
of the few people pointing out what they can clearly see in front of them.
People must speak up -- and speak up now, and speak up fast -- in support of
freedom of speech before it is taken away from them, and in support of
journalists such as Carlqvist, and politicians such as Geert Wilders, not on
trial for free speech, and against the authorities who would silence all of us.
It is, sadly, not an overstatement to say that our entire future depends on it.
Douglas Murray is a current events analyst and commentator based in London. ©
2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website
or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior
written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Is Saudi-Iranian
De-escalation Possible?
Middle East Briefing/June 11/16
Is Saudi-Iranian de-escalation possible? The short answer is yes, but how?
In general, there are two classical approaches. The first is to start from
below, that is from disengaging the two regional powers in places where their
proxies fight each other. The second is to start from setting some basic rules
for the regional fight that has torn the Middle East apart for few years now.
The belted ring where Saudi Arabia and Iran are fighting each other not only
lacks any rules, but also is situated in a region going through a violent
man-made storm. The rough waters of the wide-scaled transitional process in the
region do not allow putting together any detailed vision of what would happen.
Claims of possessing crystal balls will, as usual, fall with the first
unpredictable huge wave of events. The features of the bloody process which we
see in the Middle East now can be summarized in the two parallel dynamics of a
transitional phase due to internal factors, and the chaotic free wrestling
between Iran and Sunni Arab countries. Some of the boats we see struggling now
will sink and some will be able to navigate through unpredictable turmoil. But
in all cases, no-one should replace the ongoing multi-faceted and extremely
complex process of transformation, which is objective by definition, with one’s
own subjective prejudices or wishful thinking.
Yet, we have to have a vision of what we hope should happen. Furthermore, we
should try as much as possible to shape the general course of the transformation
process. In many cases, we will be surprised how relatively small attempts to
set the course of events, can produce profound results if based on sound
concepts and a deep understanding of the forces at play. Henry Kissinger’s
secret visit to China in 1971 changed the strategic global strategic land scape.
The Marshal Plan of 1947 cost $100 billion evaluated in 2003 dollars-that is
when Iraq’s invasion that same year cost 20 times as much.
This regional historical transformation is indeed turbulent. When coupled with
the fight between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the countless issues across the region,
which is mind boggling enough to make the world breathless, get even more
complex.
The right approach in these challenging circumstances is to try, wherever
possible, to separate the two dynamics, that of the general, and at times
inevitable, transformation of the region’s countries, and that of the
Saudi-Iranian conflict. This general conceptual framework, however, is merely
that-a concept. It does not, in and of itself, address the question of “How?”As
the nuclear deal with Iran required an international “board” (the P5+1) to
manage it, a similar mechanism may be required for the issue of “a truce”
between the Arabs and the Iranians. A helpful example for such a mechanism is
the “Helsinki Accords”.
One of our friends pointed to the fact that, when fleshing out a mechanism to
the “Helsinki Accords” of 1975, we would come to serious stumbling blocks, for
example, the Kurdish national question. This question may prevent establishing a
“modus operandi” between regional powers, namely Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria.
This Helsinki approach, which reinforces the inviolability of post-World War II
borders in Europe, should be modified to fit the current situation in the Middle
East. It cannot, however, work without three requirements: a determined global
community, on-the-ground retaliatory capabilities and a clear set of rules not
only to organize and restrain the Saudi-Iranian conflict fight but also to
reduce any discrepancies between the major external powers that work
collectively as a guarantor of the arrangement. One example to explain how we
see it is that of using non-states actors, terrorist groups and sectarian
incitement which should be categorically prohibited. Monitoring bodies should be
run by the UN and any arbitration must be based on the contents of the initial
arrangement and backed by a potential enforcement platform. Any arbitration must
be based on the contents of the initial arrangement as a reference and backed by
enforcement platform.
Moreover, regional crisis spots, which have an Iranian-Saudi dimension, are too
detailed, complex and intricate to be approached without a set of pre-approved
and agreed-upon rules that organize the overall competition between the two
sides. It may be more difficult to try to deal with each individual crisis
without “references”. But the heavy lifting required now to get these ruled
accepted by all could save time, blood, treasures and eliminate threats to the
global order. It is as important as the effort of the P5+1 to reach the nuclear
deal with Iran.
No one should interfere in the internal crisis in any regional country with more
than exerting some pressure to reduce casualties and violence and keep the
crisis contained as much as possible. The process of change inside any country
should be left, as much as possible, to indigenous forces and should be allowed
to take it natural course in order to produce genuine results. External
intervention, by Iran, Saudi Arabia and/or other powers, complicates the
“natural” transformation process, injects deformed objectives into it, imposes
foreign agendas (sectarianism, fanaticism, and militarization of social
conflicts) into its genuine evolution and threatens to turn the region into a
black hole in the global order.
It is too ambitious to hope for stopping Saudi-Iranian competition completely.
But it is not too much to agree on some basic rules of the game. The current
uncontrolled state of this conflict is causing tremendous threats to the region
and the world. Moreover, they deform the transitional process in the region and
lead it not to successful results but to more chaos, failed states, terrorist
groups and mass civilian migration and suffering. Moscow proposed a
regional anti-terrorism pact. This concept cannot stand alone. A wider framework
of rules regulating regional strategic competition is the proper concept which
would certainly include how the Middle East reduces the reproduction of
terrorism, crisis and tragedies and also lay the foundation for an organized
de-escalation. As for the Kurdish question, we currently see a semi-autonomous
Kurdish region in the north of Iraq. Turkey works well with the Kurdish Regional
Government (KRG). A similar concept should be developed for the Kurdish regions
in northern Syria. And as for the Palestinian question, we understand that there
are ongoing significant efforts, made far from the cameras, with some
out-of-the-box ideas to reach an end-game that allows the Middle East to base
any future hope for peace on solid grounds. The alternative to the concept of
setting some rules to an equation of a regional modus-operandi is to start from
below-that is from actual conflicts like those in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Libya.
This alternative is very difficult indeed. The scattered problems on the
regional theatre are mind blowing. Furthermore, almost all of them are linked in
one way or another to the unregulated Saudi-Iranian wrestling match.
Only de-escalation can permit further steps to regional co-operation. The Middle
East could cross this critical period of its history in a way less destabilizing
and less threatening to itself and to the world.
There will be those who harbor a discourse of a “tactical” cessation of hostiles
as a way to prepare for a fiercer fight, and there will be those who will
seriously push forward towards a peaceful co-habitation. They can think what
they want. In the event of such an agreement, there will emerge forces that
would benefit from such a de-escalation and hence defend it. Therefore, those
who may look at a Helsinki Accord-like arrangement in the Middle East as a mere
“short lull” in the war between Iran and the Arabs, and try to use it to gather
energy for a future round, can think as they wish. The shift in the ground under
their feet would have changed and, hopefully, peace would have pushed them to an
irrelevant margin. French hated the Germans for few decades after the Second
World War. Who remembers this now?
We have not seen yet anything called “permanent phase”, this is a contradiction
by definition. A de-escalation could remain static and expire sooner or later,
or it could be developed to a higher level-that of regional cooperation. A
similar global group like the P5+1 should put the general “rules of engagement”
and should somehow generalize them as the “legal” form of behavior from the
global point of view. Collective punishments (sanctions for example) and other
retaliatory tools should be set on the table as well to give the proposed
Accords procedures for global enforcement. And there is quite a lot to cooperate
about in the Middle East between the regional powers.
Putin’s Game Plan in the
Middle East
Middle East Briefing/June 11/16
It is worth taking time to reflect back on the events of the period since
Russia’s heavy-handed intervention in Syria last fall until the failed Russia-US
diplomatic effort to reach a political solution there. This period represents an
important transitional phase in Moscow’s approach to what has been a
US-established order in the region. It also reveals the underlying strategy of
President Vladimir Putin with both its strong and its weak points. We argue here
that Putin’s decision to go into Syria last fall is linked to signing the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (the nuclear deal) between the international
community and Tehran as it is linked to Iran and to Russia’s interests in the
Middle East in general. There is a common belief that Russia intervened in Syria
in order to preserve its presence in the eastern Mediterranean. There are many
facts that support this claim, like the recent natural gas discoveries in that
area and the fact that Russia’s naval base in Tartous is its only base in the
Middle East on the whole.But contacts between some Arab Gulf countries from the
end of 2014 until last month tell us that Arab guarantees to preserve Russia’s
interests in Syria in any post-Assad configuration, if Putin changes his
policies on Syria, have fallen on deaf ears. Even promises to expand and
diversify ties between the Arab countries and Russia were not enough to catch
Putin’s attention.This means two things: 1. that the Russian president was
marching, then and now, to a different drumbeat; and 2. that the Arab countries
did not read Putin’s mind correctly.
Furthermore, the Arab offers shake, at least partially, the assumptions that
Russia is focused solely, or mainly, on preserving its interests in the eastern
Mediterranean. Those offers were a tempting opportunity to preserve Russia’s
interests in a moment when Assad looked very shaky, but Putin declined to take
it.
The more plausible assumption is that Putin saw things from a broader angle. The
view from this angle shows clearly the Moscow was not interested only in
stepping into Syria, but also into Iran and the rest of the Middle East.
Let us get back to this period of time (2013-14) and ask a simple question: How
would Russia be able to establish a new bridge to the Middle East? The answer
comes through the traditional way of thinking: Improve bilateral ties with the
region’s key countries. But such a traditional approach would have always
yielded only quantitative results.
Everywhere in the Middle East, US regional ties were at the time structurally
solid as they were based on a long history of relations with its key actors,
except in one place: Iran. If Russia was to enter the region through the Arab
Gulf countries, its role would have always remained secondary to that of the US.
It would have been impossible for Moscow to achieve any strategic gains in an
order created by the US in the Arab bank of the Gulf. Putin’s objective was to
reverse this order and build another where Russia can be a major player.
The only place that did not have any thing in common with the US other than
mutual hostility was Iran. But Iran was isolated globally and shaky
economically. To use it as Russia’s “door” to the Gulf, and the Middle East in
general, it was important to address the problems that were curtailing its
future role, as seen by Moscow, all the while building Moscow’s political
capital in Tehran. By doing this, Russia would be able to build its bridge with
Tehran on the basis of cooperation to find solutions to Iran’s troubles. The
first task was to “unchain” this one country that is free from US influence or
presence.
Many observers and even officials, including President Obama, expressed surprise
at how “constructive” Russia’s role was during the talks for the nuclear deal.
In addition to fulfilling Putin’s task of “unchaining” Iran, it was also
important for Russia to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The
Russian “constructive” role in the deal was thus self-serving in two fronts –
that of preventing a nuclear Iran on Russia’s southern borders, and that of
inching into the Middle East from the only point where the US is weak or
non-existent. Putin’s scenario was achieved exactly as he perceived it in this
early phase. Hoping that Moscow can change its mind through convincing and juicy
Arab offers is naïve. Putin’s policies are not mainly about Syria. They are
about Iran first and Syria second.
But where are the weak points in such a strategy?
To answer this question, we need to step back, scan the general picture, and try
to spot what mathematicians call the independent variable – the factor that is
able, independently, to shape the role of all other players: the role of the US.
It is this role that could determine the fate of Putin’s game plan. The fate of
this plan has depended on two elements: the success of the nuclear talks, and
the ability of Russia to demonstrate to the Iranians the usefulness of their
support in order for Moscow to gain a non-American door to the Middle East and
to international recognition as a player on the global theater.
The US had a limited margin in both tracks. Washington wanted a deal with Iran,
and it did not have an appetite to confront Iranians in any regional crisis
whether Russia was involved or not. Where Moscow was ready to show the Iranians
how reliable Russia is, the US was sending an unsettling message to its regional
allies: we will do nothing. It is mind-boggling to learn that the initial offer
for reaching a nuclear deal made by the Iranians in 2009 included Iran’s
readiness to talk about its regional role, including support for Hezbollah. The
offer, as presented to Oman as a go-between, was carried to Dennis Ross, at the
time Special Advisor on the Persian Gulf and Southwest Asia for then-Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton, by Omani businessman Salem bin Nasser al-Ismaily, and
included a clear reference to readiness to negotiate the future of Hezbollah.
That was then. In the end, however, the US settled with only a strictly
technical deal which cannot be considered above criticism even from a technical
angle.
The Iranian offer to talk was authenticated by the Omanis as approved by
Ayatollah Khamenei. This was indeed a golden opportunity to push for a different
order in the Middle East that would include the Arabs and the Iranians in a
shared regional security arrangement guaranteed by the US, hence depriving
Moscow of any potential door to the region. Currently, the regional dynamic is
showing that the conflict has entered a phase in which Russia plays for the
Iranians the same role the US has played for the Arabs. It was the US that used
military force to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi forces in 1991. Now, it is the
Russians who use military force to achieve the Iranian goal of keeping Assad in
power. The weak point in Putin’s game plan is simply that no one can guarantee
that Iran will eventually re-merge with the global economy with all the
political consequences expected. As we wrote on a previous occasion, the reason
Russia opens its arms to the Revolutionary Guard’s Qassem Soleimani so often is
that the Iranian hardliners are the objective allies of Moscow. They can torpedo
any Iranian-Western rapprochement, as they did with American sailors in the Gulf
last January.
But at the end of the day, objective interests will dictate their word on
politicians. The hardliners will ultimately lose. And Iran will be integrated
into the world economy. This means that Russia, which has so little to offer to
the Iranians in this regard, will remain limited in its approach.
Fallujah, Manbij, and Mosul:
What Will ISIL Do After Its Defeat?
Middle East Briefing/June 11/16
It is clear that ISIL is being squeezed on all fronts. In Iraq, the battle of
Fallujah is raging, with ISIL’s only prospects lying in inflicting maximum
damage to the attackers before all its fighters are killed. Afterward, the
offensive to take back Mosul will be the only major battle remaining before
declaring “victory” in Iraq over ISIL terrorism. In Syria, Manbij is within the
reach of the small arms possessed by the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Assad’s Desert Hawks (DH) forces, led by Mohammed Jaber and trained by Russia,
are advancing to cut the Raqqa-Aleppo road, while the SDF has advanced from
nearby Ain Issa toward Raqqa. The US, supporting the SDF, and Russia, which
provides air cover to DH units, are coordinating to decide the timing of their
proxies’ attack on the “capital” of the Islamic State. We do not need any
analytical work to conclude that the US and Russia are coordinating their
efforts in the current phase, titled “ISIL First”. Events confirm this ever more
definitively than current analysis. Neither should we doubt that ISIL will be
ultimately defeated militarily. What is needed is to try to penetrate the
extremely complex situations in both Syria and Iraq in order to detect some
features of the dynamic that will emerge the day after, and of what ISIL will do
once their territorial “caliphate” has been eliminated.
Experience with al-Qaeda tells us that it is delusional to expect that ISIL will
simply “disappear” after its military defeat. The form of a “State” is merely
one of the faces of this phenomenon. The most likely mode of existence for ISIL
after its defeat is as a transnational terrorist group rather than an
insurgency, and certainly not a state. In other words, the hybrid war waged by
the organization will be transformed due to changes in the form of its
existence. This will entail preserving an even stronger underground command
structure, methods of communication between cells and the general public alike,
certain capabilities necessary to operate a terrorist network, and a strong core
of loyal members. Examining the situation of the group as it has evolved during
the last few years, one could say that all these elements are abundantly
available to the organization in order to adapt to its future as a non-state
terrorist organization.
The “building blocks” of the new phase in ISIL life are already there. The
mortar is also there. The motives for participation and action would even be
doubled, and the signs of support from sympathizers would pour in as token of
solidarity and invitation to carry on the holy jihad.
It may seem too early to think of what ISIL will, or will not, do after its
military defeat. We still have some time before we see Mosul liberated. But it
is important to reflect upon that in this early moment in order to determine to
what extent the steps being taken to defeat ISIL today will have consequences
the day after. Two interrelated elements, however, should concern us now. The
first is the sentiments of the potential hosting environment. The second is the
psychological conditions of ISIL fighters and sympathizers around the world.
The hosting environment is a function of how both the victors and the defeated
behave the day after. The most likely, and natural, behavior for the victors is
throwing loud celebrations of the victory. Yet, it is crucial to reflect deeply
on what the defeated will do after their defeat. ISIL will be compelled both to
get revenge and to spoil the party.
The primary concern for them in the immediate short term after the defeat will
be to ensure their security. Yet, the desire for revenge will remain for a long
time after the party is over. The “norm” for ISIL self-expression in this
situation would certainly be a violent and spectacular chain of terrorist
attacks in both Iraq and Syria as well as in Western countries. There is not
much that can counter this immediately other than to heighten security
procedures and intelligence cooperation. One helpful measure would be to
encourage Muslim countries to give greater space to their anti-ISIL ulama
(religious scholars). The ulama are expected to blame ISIL for its defeat. The
central point in any media effort to counter ISIL’s propaganda campaign should
be centered on debunking its probable central theme: that the non-believers
defeated Islam when they broke the Islamic State. In a perfect world, the fight
against ISIL should never be presented as a war against Islam, nor as a war
against Sunnis in particular. The ulama need the space to explain more
elaborately and authoritatively that their defeat will be the defeat of “ISIL’s
Islam”, and not the Islam of more than a billion Muslims worldwide. This could
be supplemented by a flood of testimonies from Sunni Muslims in liberated towns
about the (un-Islamic) horrors they, as Sunnis, suffered under ISIL. This should
come as a part of a well-planned campaign by the anti-ISIL coalition in the
realm of the media.
Washington Ponders Russia’s
Next Moves in Syria
Middle East Briefing/June 11/16
Officials from the Pentagon and the National Security Council are closely
watching for signs of what Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to do next in
Syria. In mid-May, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu called on the United
States to join Russia in a joint offensive against the Islamic State (ISIL) and
Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate. Shoigu knew that the US would
not move beyond the existing “deconfliction” agreements and joint ceasefire
monitoring, and would reject the Russian plan. Shoigu further announced that
unless the US joined the effort by a deadline of May 25, Russia would resume
unilateral military actions against ISIL and Nusra. There are now signs of some
coordination.
In Washington, however, the official assessment is that Putin is hesitant to get
more deeply involved in the Syrian war. Earlier this year, he had stunned Syrian
President Bashar Assad and others by announcing a draw-down of Russian forces in
Syria. Putin badly miscalculated. The Russian partial withdrawal was based on
the assumption that Iranian forces in Syria, in league with a bolstered Syrian
Army, would be able to maintain the offensive against rebel forces, albeit at a
slower pace. The decision proved to be a disaster, as Iranian forces failed to
live up to Russian expectations. Washington had also made assumptions about the
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ fighting capabilities that were similarly
proven to be gravely exaggerated. In both Syria and Iraq, Iranian forces have
suffered heavy losses, and have shown none of the military skills that the
Russian “volunteers” had shown.
After a late-May surprise attack against a Russian air base, in which Russian
combat helicopters were destroyed and other damage was inflicted, Russia is now
reinforcing its presence in Syria. Pentagon sources confirm that the Russians
suffered higher casualties in that incident than initially admitted. But the
redeployment of the withdrawn military forces, with the addition of several
thousand Russian special forces, is still not the kind of full-scale commitment
that is required to score a decisive advantage, even against just ISIL and Nusra
combatants.
Putin is facing challenges that go way beyond the Syrian front. On July 7-8, as
reported last week, NATO heads of state are scheduled to meet in Warsaw, Poland,
to approve deployment of at least four combat battalions to the Baltic States
and Poland, bordering Russian territory. European governments are also scheduled
to vote on whether to extend the economic sanctions against Russia beyond the
July 31 expiration date. Those sanctions are based on Russia’s support for
separatist rebels in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. Putin has struck a
fragile economic alliance with Japan, in spite of President Obama’s strong
opposition to such support from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, for Russia’s own
“Pivot to Asia.”
If Russia launches an all-out escalation of military engagement in Syria, the
global situation will suddenly get much worse for Russia. Putin is also facing
increasing domestic opposition to the economic policies of his cabinet and
central bank, and this could impact on the Duma elections coming up in
September. He is worried about a setback for his United Russia party, which
could weaken his overall room to maneuver and his prestige globally. Therefore,
by Washington’s calculation, Putin will make limited moves in Syria, to offset
the weakness of the Iranian play, but will not escalate beyond that, for fear of
the repercussions outside of Syria.
Putin knows that the Obama administration is looking to further secure the
president’s legacy by scoring a demonstrable military victory against the
Islamic State in the coming weeks and months. Given the serious weaknesses of
the Iraqi Armed Forces and the contentious political situation on the ground in
Iraq, the best option for the White House is for the US-backed Syrian Democratic
Forces to seize Raqqa. From Putin’s vantage point, any defeat of ISIL in Syria,
particularly the ouster of ISIL from its “capital” at Raqqa, would actually
bolster the Assad government’s ability to survive in the short term.
Because of the intensification of military operations against ISIL and Nusra in
northern Syria, US and Russian military forces have necessarily had to increase
their “deconfliction” coordination. The flow of operational intelligence back
and forth, however, remains at the tactical level, as relations between
Washington and Moscow remain in the deep-freeze. This is not going to change,
particularly during the remainder of the Obama presidency. The distrust that
built up between the Russian and American military commands over the Ukraine
conflict will take a long time to repair, if that even can be achieved.
The tactical deconfliction “marriage of convenience” between the US and Russian
armed forces in Syria simply means that the US will have clear warning if and
when Russia changes its stance and goes in for a serious show of force. Given
Putin’s other headaches, that is unlikely.