LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

May 03/16

 

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletin16/english.may03.16.htm

 

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Bible Quotations For Today

Let us also go, that we may die with Lazarus
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 11/01-16.:"Now a certain man was ill, Lazarus of Bethany, the village of Mary and her sister Martha. Mary was the one who anointed the Lord with perfume and wiped his feet with her hair; her brother Lazarus was ill. So the sisters sent a message to Jesus, ‘Lord, he whom you love is ill.’But when Jesus heard it, he said, ‘This illness does not lead to death; rather it is for God’s glory, so that the Son of God may be glorified through it.’Accordingly, though Jesus loved Martha and her sister and Lazarus, after having heard that Lazarus was ill, he stayed two days longer in the place where he was. Then after this he said to the disciples, ‘Let us go to Judea again.’The disciples said to him, ‘Rabbi, the Jews were just now trying to stone you, and are you going there again?’Jesus answered, ‘Are there not twelve hours of daylight? Those who walk during the day do not stumble, because they see the light of this world. But those who walk at night stumble, because the light is not in them.’After saying this, he told them, ‘Our friend Lazarus has fallen asleep, but I am going there to awaken him.’The disciples said to him, ‘Lord, if he has fallen asleep, he will be all right.’Jesus, however, had been speaking about his death, but they thought that he was referring merely to sleep. Then Jesus told them plainly, ‘Lazarus is dead. For your sake I am glad I was not there, so that you may believe. But let us go to him.’ Thomas, who was called the Twin, said to his fellow-disciples, ‘Let us also go, that we may die with him."’

Beware of the dogs, beware of the evil workers, beware of those who mutilate the flesh

Letter to the Philippians 03/01-12:"Finally, my brothers and sisters, rejoice in the Lord. To write the same things to you is not troublesome to me, and for you it is a safeguard. Beware of the dogs, beware of the evil workers, beware of those who mutilate the flesh! For it is we who are the circumcision, who worship in the Spirit of God and boast in Christ Jesus and have no confidence in the flesh even though I, too, have reason for confidence in the flesh. If anyone else has reason to be confident in the flesh, I have more: circumcised on the eighth day, a member of the people of Israel, of the tribe of Benjamin, a Hebrew born of Hebrews; as to the law, a Pharisee; as to zeal, a persecutor of the church; as to righteousness under the law, blameless. Yet whatever gains I had, these I have come to regard as loss because of Christ. More than that, I regard everything as loss because of the surpassing value of knowing Christ Jesus my Lord. For his sake I have suffered the loss of all things, and I regard them as rubbish, in order that I may gain Christ and be found in him, not having a righteousness of my own that comes from the law, but one that comes through faith in Christ, the righteousness from God based on faith. I want to know Christ and the power of his resurrection and the sharing of his sufferings by becoming like him in his death, if somehow I may attain the resurrection from the dead. Not that I have already obtained this or have already reached the goal; but I press on to make it my own, because Christ Jesus has made me his own."

Pope Francis's Tweet For Today
There is the grave problem of labour, because of the high rate of young adults unemployed, but also for the issue of the dignity of work.
إن مشكلة العمل خطيرة بسبب ارتفاع مُعدَّل البطالة بين الشباب ولأنها تتعلّق أيضًا بكرامة العمل


Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 03/16

Shi’ite Lebanese Journalist, Hannan Al-Sabbar: I Renounce The Shi’ite Sect; Hizbullah Is ‘Immoral, Murderous/MEMRI/May 02/16

Syria – What is Russia up to Now/Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al Awsat/May 02/16
Iran’s army chief takes command in Syria/DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 02/16
Egyptian Dhimmitude: Christian Official Lures Child Back to Muslim Grandfather and Orders Her to “Remove the Cross”/Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine/May 02/16
Europe's Migration Crisis: No End in Sight/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/May 02/16
Reza Moridi: The Changing Faces of an Iranian-Canadian MPP/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/May 02/16
Sisi moves into damage control following island transfer uproar/Albaraa Abdullah/Al-Monitor/May 02/16
Aleppo on verge of decisive battle/Al-Monitor/Al-Monitor/May 02/16
What Iran’s first non-oil trade surplus means for its economy/Maysam Bizær/Al-Monitor/May 02/16

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on May 03/16

Shi’ite Lebanese Journalist, Hannan Al-Sabbar: I Renounce The Shi’ite Sect; Hizbullah Is ‘Immoral, Murderous’
Former MP Nouhad Soaid Passes Away
Hariri-Geagea Meeting Emphasizes Alliance in Municipal Elections
Shehayyeb Affirms: Waste Plan on Right Track
Qaouq: Saudi Chiefly Responsible for Ongoing Aleppo Massacres
Hariri Meets Matar, Audeh, Stresses Fair Representation at Beirut Municipal Polls
Arsal Municipal Chief Asks for Postponement of Town Elections
Zasypkin Meets Hariri: Russia Continues Endeavors to Help Lebanon Elect President
Rifi: Quotas are inacceptable
Hariri visits Bishop Matar, confirms importance of parity in Beirut elections
Hussein Moussawi: To remain alert against strife attempts
Lebanese Army shells gunmen at Arsal slopes
'Zahle Deserves' List announced
Ministry of the Interior instructed public workers to toe official ministry line during municipal elections

 

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 03/16

Walid Phares, : foreign policy adviser: Trump willing to strengthen alliances
Jubeir: Syrian govt committing war crimes in Aleppo
Iran to grant citizenship to families of foreign ‘martyrs’
Drones, Turkish artillery hit ISIS in Syria, 34 dead
Mall arrest after suicide vest mistake
PKK splinter group claims suicide attack in Turkey’s Bursa
Due to territorial losses, ISIS ‘boosting attacks’
Iraqis end Green Zone protests after issuing demands
Attack on Aleppo hospital is a “war crime”
7000 industrial units in Iran have been closed down
IRAN: Khamenei appoints new personal representative in Syria
U.S. in Desperate Bid to Save Syria Truce as Aleppo Bombed
First U.S. Cruise Ship in Half-Century Docks in Cuba
Saudi minister confirms warning on proposed US law on 9/11

 

Links From Jihad Watch Site for May 03/16
Islamic State attacks in Iraq and Syria at highest level since 2014
Russia: Explosives found in illegal mosque, detonated by authorities
Islamic Jihad delegation visits Iran to discuss ways to strengthen intifada
U.S. Muslims recruiting for Islamic State in Syria killed in airstrike
Australia: Barriers installed to shield synagogues against jihad terror attacks
UK columnist: Labour’s Jew-hatred is cynical bid for Muslim votes
UK: Muslim Labour Party pol says Israelis “drink Gaza’s blood”
UK: Pro-jihad terror cleric defends anti-Semitic Labour Party leaders
UK: Muslim appears in court over Syria violent jihad plans
Florida: Muslim plotted to bomb synagogue during Passover
Just wait till I win my Golden Globe and I yell, ‘Allahu akbar!
France refused Israeli tech that could have foiled Paris jihad massacre
Montreal: Muslim teen arrested for jihad terror offenses — again
Muslim leader: Negative perceptions of Islam cause distress to Muslims living in France

 

Latest Lebanese Related News published on May 03/16

Shi’ite Lebanese Journalist, Hannan Al-Sabbar: I Renounce The Shi’ite Sect; Hizbullah Is ‘Immoral, Murderous’
MEMRI/May 2, 2016 Special Dispatch No.6408

http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/05/02/memri-shiite-lebanese-journalist-hannan-al-sabbar-i-renounce-the-shiite-sect-hizbullah-is-immoral-murderous/

In response to the massive attack of the Syrian regime and its allies on the city of Aleppo in the last few days, in which over 200 people have already been killed, Shi’ite Lebanese journalist Hannan Al-Sabbar penned a scathing article in which she renounced Hizbullah as well as the Shi’ite sect that follows it blindly. Al-Sabbar, who is known for her criticism of Hizbullah, especially since it joined the war in Syria, wrote on the news website newlebanon.info that Hizbullah was an “immoral and murderous” organization that was deviating from God’s path and from the path of the fathers of the Shi’a. She compared the events in Aleppo to the battle of Karbala in 680 CE, between the supporters of the Prophet’s grandson, Hussein bin ‘Ali, and the supporters of the first Umayyad caliph, Yazid I, which is a seminal event in the history of Shi’ite Islam.
The following are excerpts from her article:
Aftermath of airstrike in Aleppo (image: al-Arabiya.net, April 26, 2016)
“I am a Shi’ite from South [Lebanon, the stronghold] of the resistance [i.e., Hizbullah], and I used to be proud of this. [In the past] I never thought that the resistance was wrong or would ever be wrong, and I staunchly defended the beliefs of my society and my surroundings. I did not know that a day [would come] when I would renounce [my] society, my blind sect and the party [Hizbullah,] which I have condemned since it became involved in the Syrian crisis.
“Today I asked myself: where is the conscience of the ‘resistance’ when it comes to the children [of Aleppo]? How can we be the party of God [Hizbullah] when we do not obey God’s directives? Every morning, I went over the reports [from Aleppo], trying to find even one piece of proof that Assad has the right to do what he is doing – but I found only words filled with sadness and grief over loved ones killed in the airstrikes. I found only the tears of an old man calling on Muhammad’s nation to help him, and a young man who insists on his honor and declares, ‘we stay here. This is our land, not the Russians’ or the Americans.’
“This loyalty to the land, despite the crisis these residents of Aleppo are experiencing, filled me with embarrassment and caused me to wonder what was the source of this loyalty to a city that is nearly in ruins… [At that point] I finally decided to revolt and take off the false mantle of Shi’ism, for my Zainab[1] would not allow the women of Aleppo to become the Zainabs of this age, and my Imams, ‘Ali and Hussein,[2] would not want the children of Aleppo to become the ‘Abdallah al-Radhi’ of this age.[3]
“If [the battle of] Karbala is being waged all over again by those who hide behind a mantle of piety, then [Hizbullah] is immoral and murderous and I cannot but say: Aleppo, I feel shame towards you and I hereby renounce the Shi’a and the party [Hizbullah] that supports the one who is destroying you.’”
Endnotes:
[1] The granddaughter of the Prophet Muhammad and daughter of ‘Ali, who was taken hostage in the battle of Karbala.
[2] ‘Ali bin abi Talib, the fourth caliph, and his son Hussein, who was killed in the battle of Karbala.
[3] ‘Abdallah, the son of Hussein and the grandson of ‘Ali, was killed in the battle of Karbala when he was only six months old.

 

Former MP Nouhad Soaid Passes Away
Naharnet/May 02/16/Former lawmaker Nouhad Soaid passed away on Monday.
The mother of former MP and March 14 General Secretariat coordinator, Fares Soaid, was elected to parliament in 1996.Born in Qartaba in the Jbeil district in 1932, she studied law at Saint Joseph University.LBCI television said she died at Hotel Dieu de France Hospital.

Hariri-Geagea Meeting Emphasizes Alliance in Municipal Elections
Naharnet/May 02/16/Al-Mustaqbal Movement chief MP Saad Hariri met with Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geaega where talks highlighted the necessity to elect a president and the need to unite efforts between the two parties in the upcoming municipal elections, Hariri's media office said on Monday. The meeting took place late on Sunday in the Center House in the presence of Lebanese Forces media officer Melhem Riach and Hariri's adviser Ghattas Khoury. The meeting was an occasion to reaffirm the alliance between Mustaqbal and the Lebanese Forces in the Beirut municipal elections, and to coordinate their efforts in other regions, the statement said. The four-stage municipal elections will start in Beirut and Bekaa-al-Hermel districts on May 8, while the elections in Mount Lebanon will be held on May 15. Elections in south Lebanon and Nabatieh are set for May 22 and north Lebanon and Akkar for May 29. Discussions also highlighted the repercussions of the vacuum at the top state post on Lebanon's economic, political, and social levels. They emphasized that it affects Lebanon's immunity and capability to confront crises. Ways to reactivate the March 14 alliance were also tackled. Later during the day, LBCI quoted Hariri as saying: “Although there are some differences with Geagea, the strong relations between the LF and Mustaqbal will continue.” At the regional level, Hariri and Geagea denounced the “war of extermination waged by the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad on civilians in Aleppo and they considered it an epitome of terrorism,” concluded the statement.

Shehayyeb Affirms: Waste Plan on Right Track
Naharnet/May 02/16/Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb assured on Monday that the trash management plan is going smoothly and slammed reports claiming that it is going in circles and is doomed to fail. “The waste management plan is going the right way contrary to what some people think. The plan was initially put in order to prevent the crisis from reverting,” he told the pan-Arab al-Hayat daily in an interview. Shehayyeb stated that the “Naameh landfill will be closed permanently on the due date and will not receive trash from the villages of Shouf or Aley or any other region.” “A large part of the crisis in Beirut, Keserwan and Metn has been resolved, including parts of Shouf and Aley. We still have sections of upper Aley, Shouf and Iqlim al-Kharroub where we are setting up two large spaces where we can package the waste before it is transported.” On the landfills of Bourj Hammoud and that of Costa Brava, the Agriculture Minister said that the efforts are ongoing to prepare these two landfills to receive the waste after the closure of the Naameh landfill. He concluded: “Beirut, which produces around 500 tons of garbage on a daily basis, will be free of old and new garbage this week.” Lebanon's unprecedented trash management crisis erupted in July 2015 after the closure of the Naameh landfill, which was receiving the waste of Beirut and Mount Lebanon. The crisis, which sparked unprecedented protests against the entire political class, has seen streets, forests and riverbanks overflowing with waste and the air filled with the smell of rotting and burning garbage. On March 12, the cabinet decided to establish two landfills in Costa Brava and Bourj Hammoud and to reactivate the Naameh landfill for two months as part of a four-year plan to resolve the country’s waste problem despite the rejection of many residents and civil society activists.

Qaouq: Saudi Chiefly Responsible for Ongoing Aleppo Massacres
Naharnet/May 02/16/Deputy head of Hizbullah Sheikh Nabil Qaouq held on Monday Saudi Arabia responsible for the ongoing conflict in Syria, accusing it of being the main backer of takfiri and al-Qaida-linked groups, reported the National News Agency. He said: “The Saudi regime is chiefly responsible for the ongoing bloody massacres taking place in Aleppo.”It has funded and armed all branches of al-Qaida and the takfiri groups, he explained. Saudi Arabia does not want to achieve peace in Syria, but it wants to keep on fueling strife, he added. “It is no secret that Syria's al-Qaida affiliate is armed with Saudi weapons that did not make their way to the Lebanese army, but landed in the hands of the takfiris,” stressed the Hizbullah official. He reiterated the party's accusations that Riyadh is stoking conflicts in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, “while Israel is sitting comfortably.”“Israel fears Hizbullah, but it does not fear the al-Nusra Front or Islamic State groups that are at its border in the Golan Heights.”“Saudi Arabia is not concerned with Israel's weapons or its occupation or aggression, but it fears the defeat of takfiris in Syria.”“The day in which Lebanon will become bound to Saudi Arabia's intentions will never arrive and neither will Syria fall in the hands of takfiri gangs.” “We will keep on pursuing these gangs, because this is how we will serve our nation.” “Syria's fall in the hands of takfiris will present a danger to Lebanon's national security and Saudi Arabia's regional policies are a danger to the Arab, Islamic, and Lebanese security,” warned Qaouq.Riyadh earlier this year halted a grant worth billions of dollars to provide weapons to the Lebanese army due to Hizbullah's virulent stances against the kingdom and Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil's abstention from voting for Arab resolutions condemning attacks against the Saudi embassy and consulate in Iran. Saudi Arabia also urged its citizens against traveling to Lebanon. The countries of the Arab gulf later issued similar warnings and also labeled Hizbullah as a “terrorist group over its meddling in the affairs of Arab states.”

Hariri Meets Matar, Audeh, Stresses Fair Representation at Beirut Municipal Polls
Naharnet/May 02/16/Head of the Mustaqbal Movement MP Saad Hariri warned on Monday against violating the rules of fair representation at the upcoming municipal polls in Beirut. He said: “Fair representation is a red line for us.” “We urge all sides to vote in favor of just representation that was adopted by former Premier Rafik Hariri,” stated the lawmaker after meeting Beirut Maronite Bishop Boulos Matar on the occasion of Easter. The two officials also addressed efforts to resolve the presidential vacuum in the country, reported Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5). For his part, Matar echoed the MP's call to respect fair representation at the elections, which are scheduled for Sunday. “Beirut is part of this moderation and we support former PM Rafik Hariri's stances,” he stressed. Earlier, Hariri had held talks with Greek Orthodox Archbishop of Beirut Elias Audeh. Audeh on Sunday had hoped that the municipal elections would pave the way “to restoring democracy in Lebanon,” which would in turn result in electing a new head of state.

Arsal Municipal Chief Asks for Postponement of Town Elections

Naharnet/May 02/16/The municipal chief of the northeastern town of Arsal Ali al-Hujeiri, voiced calls on Monday for the postponement of the municipal elections in the town, citing the unstable security situation and polling stations that have been situated in remote areas, the Kuwaiti al-Anba daily reported. “The security situation in Arsal does not allow the election process, particularly since the Interior Ministry has set, in collaboration with the Lebanese army, six polling stations two of which are four kilometers away from the residence of voters, which will affect their enthusiasm,” he told the newspaper in an interview. “Each moment Arsal is subject to a bloody setback,” he added. “Elections in Arsal are not as easy as believed. Although the Lebanese army is deterring armed groups and terrorists from advancing into the outskirts, but fears linger over vehicles and motorcycles that roam the town with strangers on board. The latest bloody incident that led to the death of several armed intruders is evidence.”Arsal lies 12 kilometers from the border with Syria and has been used as a conduit for weapons and rebels to enter the neighboring country, while also serving as a refuge for people fleeing the conflict. Militants from the al-Qaida-affiliated al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State groups are entrenched in mountainous regions along the porous Lebanese-Syrian border. The Lebanese army regularly shells their positions and Hizbullah fighters have engaged in clashes with them on the Syrian side of the border. In August 2014, the IS and al-Nusra waged a major attack and overran Arsal in the wake of the arrest of a senior militant. The two groups withdrew after deadly battles with the army, but took with them around 30 hostages from the Lebanese army and police of whom four were eventually executed. Sixteen were released in December 2015, while nine soldiers are still held captive by the IS.

Zasypkin Meets Hariri: Russia Continues Endeavors to Help Lebanon Elect President
Naharnet/May 02/16/Russian Ambassador to Lebanon Alexander Zasypkin stated on Monday that Moscow will continue to exert efforts and hold contacts to help Lebanon conclude its stalled presidential elections. Zaspykin's comments came after a meeting he held with al-Mustaqbal movement chief MP Saad Hariri at the Center House. “Our meeting today is to maintain continuous communication between Hariri and the Russian leadership. We have discussed issues of joint interest,” said Zaspykin after the meeting. “I have confirmed on behalf of President Vladimir Putin and Minister Sergei Lavrov their constant quest to develop the dialogue with Hariri to bolster the Lebanese-Russian ties,” he added. Late in March, Hariri kicked off a visit to Russia where he met with the President and Foreign Minister. Reports had said that the Russian leader had expressed readiness to support Lebanon on the military and security levels given the confrontation with terrorists. May 2016 will mark two years of vacuum at Lebanon's top state post when the term of President Michel Suleiman ended in 2014. Conflicts among the rival camps of the March 8 and March 14 thwarted all attempts to elect a successor.


Rifi: Quotas are inacceptable
Mon 02 May 2016/NNA - Quotas are inacceptable to us and, we'd rather go straight to civil society, outgoing minister of Justice Ashraf Rifi, stated upon his fielding of his Tripoli and mina seaport's municipal electoral machinery in place today. Running against traditional political opponents in the "Accord List, Rifi lashed out at them accusing them of compromising Tripoli development for more than 6 years. Rifi added that his contenders would run under co existential rubrics between Sunnis Alawis, Christians and civil community activities willing to join his list. Vowing to address what he termed as a revitalized Tripoli's belt of misery, he proposed general guidelines for urban development and promised a thoroughly democratic municipal contest.

Hariri visits Bishop Matar, confirms importance of parity in Beirut elections
Mon 02 May 2016/NNA - Former PM Saad Hariri met on Monday with Maronite bishop of Beirut, Boulos Matar, and insisted on the importance of parity in the municipality of Beirut on the eve of the elections. He dubbed equal sharing among Muslims and Christians a "red-line set by martyr Rafik Hariri." He urged people of Beirut to vote for the Beiruti List which he supported, stating that the capital needed development and a watchful eye over it.Hariri also told Matar of his meeting with Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, which took place on Sunday evening. "Dialogue with [Geagea] will continue, and I have a special relationship with him." The Bishop, in turn, lauded Hariri's moderate and genuine character to the press, saying he was the epitome of coexistence. Matar addressed the people of Beirut, prompting them to be united.

Hussein Moussawi: To remain alert against strife attempts
Mon 02 May 2016/NNA - Baalbek-Hermel Parliamentary Bloc Head, MP Hussein Moussawi, called on Monday for "closing of ranks in the face of dangers ahead and maintaining alertness and caution against any possible strife attempts."

Lebanese Army shells gunmen at Arsal slopes
Mon 02 May 2016/NNA - Lebanese Army heavy long -range artillery, has been pending gunmen at Arsal mountain slopes, NNA field reporters said today.

'Zahle Deserves' List announced
Mon 02 May 2016/NNA - "Zahle Deserves" list of candidates for the municipal elections, headed by Moussa Fattoush, was declared on Monday from the Fattoush family residence premises in Zahle, amidst a crowd of supporters.Following its announcement, MP Ncoula Fattoush said that "the list requires the confidence of Zahle citizens during the elections day upcoming Sunday, in order to ensure the city's development and preservation of its independent decision."

Ministry of the Interior instructed public workers to toe official ministry line during municipal elections
Mon 02 May 2016/NNA - Ministry of the Interior has issued a circular on Monday instructing public workers and municipal officials to toe the ministry's official guideline based on article 71 stipulating non abuse of their official position during the forthcoming municipal elections by leaning for instance toward a certain candidate or list. The ministry duly instructed officials and personnel to observe strict neutrality in dealing with voters or any political faction involved in the elections, the circular concluded.

 

Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 03/16
Walid Phares, : foreign policy adviser: Trump willing to strengthen alliances
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2016/05/02/0200000000AEN20160502000200315.html
WASHINGTON, May 1 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump is willing to strengthen relations with allies, even though he will seek to have them pay more for American defense support, a foreign policy adviser was quoted as saying .Walid Phares, an expert on terrorism and Middle Eastern affairs who served as a foreign affairs adviser for former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, made the remark in an interview with the Jiji Press, according to the Japan Times. Trump "would like to strengthen" the alliance, Phares was quoted as saying. In a major foreign policy speech last week, Trump said that allies are not paying their fair share for U.S. defense support, and the U.S. must be prepared to "let these countries defend themselves" unless they foot more of the bill for defense. Though the real-estate tycoon made no mention of South Korea, the remark spurred concern that if elected, he could seek to pull the 28,500 American troops from the Asian ally unless Seoul agrees to pay more. Trump made the case again on Sunday, "Look, we're defending Germany, we're defending Japan, South Korea, we're defending Saudi Arabia with all of that money, and we're not getting properly reimbursed," he said on "Fox News Sunday." "We're like the policeman to the world. What's going on is crazy." He also said that foreign countries are concerned about him because they feel he's very strong, and that he will have much more respect than Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton from foreign Phares said that strengthening alliances is one thing and renegotiating cost-sharing is another. "When it comes to the defense matters and spending, spending is one track and the alliance is another track," he said in the interview. "Our commitment to allies ... is going to be permanent," Phares was quoted as saying. "This is part of our policy. If there are intentions by hostile forces against our allies, we will actually be standing with our allies." Phares said Trump's apparent threat to pull American troops from allies could be "a theoretical scenario," but that does not in any way mean he is going to abandon the alliances. Trump's remarks mean that he's serious about negotiating cost-sharing. Phares described Trump's controversial suggestion that South Korea and Japan could be allowed to develop nuclear weapons for self-defense as "extreme scenarios," adding that Trump prefers to have all options on the table.

 

Jubeir: Syrian govt committing war crimes in Aleppo
Staff Writer, Al Arabiya English Monday, 2 May 2016/Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir has said on Sunday that the Syrian regime was committing "war crimes" in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo, which has been exposed to heavy shelling over the past nine days despite a “cessation of hostilities” agreement in place. Jubeir said in a press statement that “what is happening in Aleppo with the Syrian regime and its allies’ air strikes is tantamount to crimes against humanity and war crimes.” According to sources close to Jubair, the Saudi top diplomat had left for Geneva on Sunday night to hold talks on the Syrian file with his US counterpart John Kerry. It had been relatively quiet in the city of Aleppo on Sunday after earlier bombings killed since the 253 civilians dead, including 49 children since April 22, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Syrian opposition spokesman: Syrian regime deliberately striking Aleppo
Speaking to Al Arabiya News Channel, Spokesman of the Supreme Commission for Syrian negotiations Dr. Riad Nasan Agha said that the Syrian regime was deliberately striking Aleppo to displace the people and therefore make it easier to recapture.
"The world knows that Aleppo, which is the oldest inhabited city in the world, is equal to Damascus and perhaps exceeds it. Six million people used to live in it. Those were a flame in the Middle East. When you remember Aleppo, you know that you are present in front of a historic city, which the world is proud of," Agha told Al Arabiya. "This city is recorded on the UNESCO World Heritage, it is the city of landmarks and the humanity's treasure, it is the treasure of humanity today. Aleppo really contributed to the building of the whole region. Wherever you go, you find the people of Aleppo, the people of industry, trade, culture and civilization." Fresh raids in Syria’s Aleppo despite bids to halt fighting
Fresh air strikes pounded Syria’s Aleppo city early Monday, an AFP correspondent said, as US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Geneva in a bid to halt the mounting carnage. More than a week of fighting in and around Syria’s second city has killed hundreds of civilians. Air strikes on rebel-held east Aleppo hit in the early hours of Monday, AFP’s correspondent there said, with no immediate reports of casualties. Several neighborhoods, including the heavily populated Bustan al-Qasr district, were hit. It was not clear if Monday’s raids on the rebel area were conducted by Syrian or Russian jets. Rebel shelling onto government-controlled western areas of Aleppo city late Sunday killed three civilians including a child, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. Growing violence in and around Aleppo has left more than 250 civilians dead and threatened both a UN-backed peace process and a fragile ceasefire deal. Kerry landed in Geneva on Sunday for talks with Arab ministers and UN peace envoy Staffan de Mistura in an urgent push to end the bloodshed. “We are talking directly to the Russians, even now,” Kerry said, after a week in which Moscow refused US calls to rein in its ally, Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad. Aleppo was initially left out of a deal to “reinforce” a February 27 truce between the government and non-extremist rebels. The freeze in fighting, announced on Friday, applied to battlefronts in the coastal province of Latakia and Eastern Ghouta, near Damascus. The head of Moscow’s coordination center in Syria said on Sunday that talks to include Aleppo had begun. “Currently active negotiations are underway to establish a ‘regime of silence’ in Aleppo province,” Lieutenant General Sergei Kuralenko told Russian news agencies. More than 270,000 people have been killed since Syria’s conflict erupted in March 2011 with protests demanding Assad’s ouster.(With AFP)

Iran to grant citizenship to families of foreign ‘martyrs’
AFP, Tehran Monday, 2 May 2016/Iran has passed a law allowing the government to grant citizenship to the families of foreigners killed while fighting for the Islamic republic, the official IRNA news agency reported Monday. “Members of the parliament authorized the government to grant Iranian citizenship to the wife, children and parents of foreign martyrs who died on a mission... during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988) and afterwards,” it said. Citizenship must be awarded “within a maximum period of one year after the request”, IRNA added. Iran’s outgoing conservative-dominated parliament will serve until late May.
No figures are available on the number of foreign fighters killed during the Iran-Iraq war, but Afghans, and even a group of Iraqis, fought alongside Iranian forces against the regime of Saddam Hussein. The law could apply to “volunteers” from Afghanistan and Pakistan who are fighting in Syria and Iraq against jihadists including the Islamic State group and Al-Nusra Front. Shiite Iran is a staunch supporter of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and provides financial and military support to his regime. Tehran says its Fatemiyoun Brigade, comprised of Afghan recruits, are volunteers defending sacred Shiite sites in Syria and Iraq against Sunni extremists like those of IS. The Islamic republic denies having any boots on the ground and insists its commanders and generals act as “military advisers” in Syria and Iraq. Iranian media regularly report on the death of Afghan and Pakistani volunteers in Syria and Iraq, whose bodies are buried in Iran. More than three million Afghans live in Iran, one million as legal migrants.

Drones, Turkish artillery hit ISIS in Syria, 34 dead
Reuters Monday, 2 May 2016/Shelling by Turkish artillery and drones which took off from southern Turkey struck ISIS targets in Syria on Sunday, killing 34 militants, the Turkish military said. It said the strikes, in response to ISIS rocket attacks which hit the southern Turkish province of Kilis, destroyed six vehicles and five ISIS gun positions. The border town of Kilis and surrounding area has been hit frequently by rocket fire from ISIS-controlled Syrian territory in recent months, killing civilians. In Sunday’s strikes, Turkish howitzers and multiple rocket launchers first hit ISIS targets about 12 km south of the border, then four drones that took off from the Incirlik base in southern Turkey destroyed further targets, the military said. Turkey has repeatedly fired back at Islamic State positions under its rules of engagement, but has said it needs greater support from Western allies, citing the difficulty of hitting moving targets with howitzers. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu was quoted as saying last week that the United States would deploy a rocket launcher system near the stretch of border that has come under attack. A senior US military official confirmed the matter was under discussion but declined to comment further. Watch also: Turkey blames ISIS for the worst attack in its history

Mall arrest after suicide vest mistake
By Staff Writer Al Arabiya English Monday, 2 May 2016/Kuwaiti police arrested a man in a shopping mall suspected of wearing a suicide vest, local media reported. The only thing was the vest was an exercise jacket packed with weights rather than explosives. Concerned shoppers at the mall in the Kuwaiti governorate of Hawalli, tipped off police after spotting the man’s chunky attire and assumed he was a terrorist about to blow himself up. When police approached the man, they arrested him and strapped his hands together behind his back. They carefully removed the vest, expecting to find explosives and a detonator. Instead all they found were exercise weights designed to add resistance when walking and running to help boost fitness and burn calories. Witnesses told local press the police dealt with the man “in a professional manner” and they said there was no panic. Kuwaitis remain on high alert after last year’s deadly suicide bomb attack on a mosque in Kuwait city in June, 2015, which left 27 worshippers dead. Saudi interior ministry reveals more details on Al-Ahsa attack

PKK splinter group claims suicide attack in Turkey’s Bursa
AFP, Istanbul Monday, 2 May 2016/A radical Kurdish militant group on Sunday claimed a suicide bombing in Turkey’s former Ottoman capital of Bursa last week, saying the female assailant had failed to reach her intended target. The attack on Wednesday evening near Bursa’s famed 14th century Grand Mosque wounded 13 people but caused no fatalities other than the female suicide bomber herself. The Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) - a radical splinter group of the better-known Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) - said in a statement on its website that one of its members had carried out the attack.
It said the bomber was a 23-year-old woman named Eser Cali and said the attack was aimed at avenging the Turkish government’s current military operation in the Kurdish-dominated southeast. But the statement added that the bomber had detonated her charge and been killed “due an accident before she had reached the target that was to be brought to account for the massacres against our people.” It did not give details on the nature of the intended target but denied she was planning to attack the Grand Mosque. The TAK has already claimed two attacks that killed dozens of people in the capital Ankara in February and March. Its founders are believed to the have broken away several years ago from the PKK, which has waged an over three-decade insurgency against the Turkish state. Commentators suggested at the time that the bomber had detonated her charge prematurely, sparing Bursa an attack which could have caused considerable loss of life. The Turkish authorities have yet to say which group was behind the attack, although press reports have suggested a link to the PKK.

Due to territorial losses, ISIS ‘boosting attacks’
Reuters Monday, 2 May 2016/ISIS attacks have increased this year, particularly in Iraq and Syria as the group responds to substantial territorial losses, a US-based analysis firm IHS said on Sunday. There were 891 attacks during the first quarter of 2016 in neighbors Iraq and Syria, more than in any three-month period since the militants’ sweeping advance in mid-2014, IHS said in a new report. Those attacks killed 2,150 people, a 44 percent rise over the previous three months and the highest quarterly toll in nearly a year.
“The group is resorting more and more to mass-casualty violence as it comes under heavy pressure from multiple angles,” said Matthew Henman, head of IHS Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Center. The US military estimates ISIS territory in Iraq has shrunk by about 40 percent from its 2014 peak and 20 percent in Syria. Iraq’s military routed the militants from the western city of Ramadi four months ago and then pushed further west towards the Syrian border. The northern offensive has been slower, with army and Sunni Arab tribal forces taking only four villages over the past month south of Mosul. In Syria, government-aligned forces backed by Russian air power have recaptured territory from ISIS, including the ancient city of Palmyra. The group is also under pressure from a separate US-led air campaign in the north and northeast, where Kurdish fighters have advanced. The IHS report also noted a rise in ISIS attacks in Libya, where the militants have grown in strength, taking over the central city of Sirte and attacking oilfields. Analysis showed almost as many attacks in the first three months of this year as in the preceding six months. IHS said ISIS activity has also spiked around the northwestern town of Sabratha it described as a key staging ground for attacks in neighboring Tunisia. “High profile, mass casualty attacks are a tried and tested method of changing the narrative and deflecting attention away from the problems it is facing,” said Henman. “This is done for internal consumption just as much as external.”

Iraqis end Green Zone protests after issuing demands
Staff Writer, Al Arabiya English Monday, 2 May 2016/Anti-government protesters temporarily ended their mass demonstration in Baghdad's Green Zone on Sunday and began an orderly withdrawal a day after tearing down walls around the government district and invading parliament. Loudspeakers manned by followers of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who has led the protest movement, announced the disbanding of the protests, which had marked the culmination of months of sit-ins and demonstrations demanding the overhaul of a political system widely seen as corrupt and ineffectual. "We decided to end it now because of the anniversary of Imam (Moussa) al-Kadhim," said Sadiq al-Hashemi, a representative of al-Sadr's office in Baghdad who was present at the protests. Al-Hashemi said al-Sadr made the decision in order to allow Iraqi security forces to protect the thousands of pilgrims who are expected to walk from across Iraq to the shrine of the 8th-century Imam in Baghdad. Speaking to Al Arabiya News Channel from Iraq, Awad Al-Awadi, a deputy in the Iraqi parliament representing the Al-Ahrar bloc of the Sadrist Movement, said that a pending solution "depends on the political blocs first." "A solution depends on the political blocs, first, and depends on the courage of the head of the government, and parliament speaker. The parliament speaker today said he would dot the i's and cross the t's towards reform. To achieve reform, the political blocs should abandon their gains, and quotas, and their ministers," he told Al Arabiya. Earlier on Sunday, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi ordered authorities to arrest and prosecute those among the protesters who had attacked security forces, lawmakers and damaged state property after breaking into the Green Zone. Muqtada al-Sadr loyalists leave Baghdad's Green Zone
Videos on social media had showed a group of young men surrounding and slapping two Iraqi lawmakers as they attempted to flee the crowd, while other protesters mobbed lawmakers' motorcades. Jubilant protesters were also seen jumping and dancing on the parliament's meeting hall tables and chairs and waving Iraqi flags. No one was seriously wounded. The protesters left parliament late Saturday and had been rallying in a nearby square. "We are fed up, we are living a humiliated life," Rasool Hassan, a 37-year old father of three told The Associated Press from inside the Green Zone before the protest was disbanded. (With AP)

 

Attack on Aleppo hospital is a “war crime”
Sunday, 01 May 2016/NCRI - Maryam Rajavi, President-elect of the Iranian Resistance, has described the bombing of a hospital in Aleppo by Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's forces last week as a "war crime."Mrs. Rajavi "strongly condemned" the deadly strike last Wednesday which led to the deaths of dozens of people including children and doctors, adding that Assad's forces are being backed by the Iranian regime on the orders of the mullahs' Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. At least 27 staff and patients were killed when Assad's air force attacked the Al Quds Hospital in Aleppo, even though its location was well known and the hospital was assisted by the international charity Doctors Without Borders. An online campaign to halt the carnage in Aleppo has picked up speed, with Twitter users posting pictures of destroyed buildings in flames with the hashtag #AleppoIsBurning.

7000 industrial units in Iran have been closed down
Monday, 02 May 2016/NCRI – Some 7000 of Iran’s industrial units are currently inoperative, the Iranian regime's Deputy Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade has acknowledged. Ali Yazdani, who is also managing director of the state body Iran Small Industries and Industrial Parks Organization (ISIPO), said on Saturday, April 30 that out of 37,120 industrial units situated in industrial townships and areas in Iran, 7,000 have been completely closed down. Currently, 19 percent of Iran’s small-scale industries, 18 percent of the medium-size ones, and 11 percent of its large industrial units are completely shut down, Yazdani said. His remarks were carried by the state-run Mehr News Agency on Saturday. The Iranian regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, speaking in Mashhad on March 20, said: “There are reports indicating that 60 percent of domestic production resources have either ceased to operate or are functioning below capacity.” The Tasnim News Agency, affiliated to the Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, reported that on April 9, Arman Khaleqi, a member of the board of directors of the regime’s House of Industry and Mines, said: “Today, in the most optimistic assessment, around 10,000 production units are not working. If we consider that we have 67,000 production units in the country, then we are currently facing 30 percent stagnation.”Pointing to the fact that 50 percent of the units situated in the industrial townships are working at 25 percent capacity, Khaleqi said: “This shows a severe stagnation in the production units.”

IRAN: Khamenei appoints new personal representative in Syria
Monday, 02 May 2016/NCRI - The Iranian regime's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has appointed a mullah as his new personal representative in Syria. Abolfalz Tabatabai-Ashkezari was appointed to the role by Khamenei on Wednesday, April 27, the Tasnim news agency, run by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Quds Forces, reported. Khamenei has personal representatives in all 31 of Iran's provinces. The appointment of a personal representative in Syria signifies the importance Khamenei attaches to the fate of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Mehdi Ta’eb, a close protégé of Khamenei, had previously reiterated that Tehran's fate is intertwined with Assad's future. Mullah Ta’eb also described Syria as a "province of Iran."Commenting on the appointment of mullah Abolfalz Tabatabai-Ashkezari as Khamenei's personal representative in Syria, Shahin Gobadi of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) on Monday said: "Following the deployment of 60,000 IRGC forces, foreign mercenary militias from Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and more recently units of Iran's regular army, Khamenei has appointed a new mullah as his personal representative in Syria in order encourage his forces that have taken heavy casualties and are now demoralized in Syria." "Khamenei and his regime are at an impasse in Syria. As one of Khamenei's close associates said in February 2012, saving Assad in Damascus is of more importance to the mullahs than saving the oil-rich Iranian province of Khuzestan. Khamenei sees no avenue of retreat from Syria and his regime is becoming more embroiled in the conflict by the day. However, the mullahs' regime has no prospect of winning its war of aggression against the people of Syria. The Iranian regime and its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are in a strategic quagmire from which they have no way back and no way forward."The Brussels-based European Iraqi Freedom Association (EIFA) last month urged the international community to act urgently to stop the Iranian regime's military presence in Syria. "Iran's army entering the war in Syria is a blatant violation of international law and must be met with an overwhelming response and action by the international community," said EIFA President Struan Stevenson. "With the Syrian revolution against the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad entering its sixth year, Tehran has escalated the presence in Syria of its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), together with regular Iranian military units, who are waging a brutal campaign against the Syrian people and the moderate opposition.""In recent weeks, a significant number of special commandos of Iran's regular army have been killed in Syria, pointing to their extensive presence in that conflict. The failure of the IRGC, especially in the Aleppo's zone and their massive casualties in recent months in Syria, has reportedly caused Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei to dispatch his regular army to bolster pro Assad forces in this criminal war," the statement added.


U.S. in Desperate Bid to Save Syria Truce as Aleppo Bombed
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 02/16/ Fresh air strikes pummeled the Syrian city of Aleppo on Monday as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry made a desperate bid to salvage a two-month ceasefire in the war-torn country. The top U.S. diplomat gave some of his most downbeat comments yet after meeting the U.N. peace envoy on Syria, saying the conflict was "in many ways out of control and deeply disturbing to everybody in the world, I hope." "The attack on this hospital is unconscionable," he said, accusing President Bashar Assad's regime of deliberately targeting three clinics and a major hospital last week. "And it has to stop." Kerry met U.N. peace envoy Staffan de Mistura and the Saudi foreign minister in Geneva, but the absence of Russia cast a pall over the proceedings. Washington and Moscow are the joint sponsors of the Syrian peace process, and de Mistura has made it clear that he sees little hope of progress without their agreement. Kerry said he would call Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov later Monday to press for the ceasefire to be restored. De Mistura was due to fly to Moscow for talks with Lavrov on Tuesday. While agreeing in theory to support a ceasefire, Russia has done little to rein in Assad's forces around Aleppo, which were in action again early Monday. More than a week of fighting in and around Syria's second city has killed hundreds of civilians, and fresh air strikes hit rebel-held eastern Aleppo in the early hours. Several neighborhoods, including the heavily-populated Bustan al-Qasr district, were hit, according to AFP's correspondent in the northern Syrian city. "What is happening in Aleppo is an outrage. It's a violation of all humanitarian laws. It's a crime," said Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir as he met Kerry. "It's a violation of all the understandings that were reached," he added, accusing Assad and the Russians of violating international agreements to back peace. Despite the early-morning raids, there was a relative lull in the fighting later Monday, allowing some residents to venture out into the streets, AFP's correspondents there said, with some even opening up shops. Kerry said Washington would press moderate rebels to separate themselves from the Al-Nusra Front's jihadists in Aleppo. Russia and Assad's regime have used the presence of Al-Nusra, which was not party to a February 27 ceasefire deal, as an excuse to press their offensive. There is growing concern that the fighting will lead to a complete collapse of the landmark ceasefire agreed between Assad's regime and non-jihadist rebels. Following his meeting with Kerry, the Saudi minister expressed skepticism that Assad's regime was in any way serious about the truce, and said Riyadh would continue giving weapons to the rebels. Aleppo was initially left out of a deal to "reinforce" the February truce agreement. The freeze in fighting, announced on Friday, applied to battlefronts in the coastal province of Latakia and Eastern Ghouta, near Damascus. State television reported a Syrian army announcement on Monday that the freeze has been extended for another 48 hours in Eastern Ghouta, until 1:00 am Wednesday (2200 GMT Tuesday). The same "freeze" is set to hold until 1:00 am Tuesday in Latakia, a regime stronghold. But in divided Aleppo, the bloodshed continued unchecked. At least 253 civilians -- including 49 children -- have been killed on both sides of the city since April 22, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights monitor says. The escalating violence in Aleppo has also hit medical centers, with the International Committee of the Red Cross saying four were struck on Friday alone. Two days earlier, 30 people were killed when an air strike hit a hospital supported by Doctors Without Borders (MSF) and the Red Cross, sparking an international outcry. The bloodshed has dampened hopes that the ceasefire could finally lay the groundwork for an end to Syria's five-year conflict. Last month's peace talks in Geneva failed to make any headway, although de Mistura has said he hopes they can resume "during the course of May". Syria's conflict erupted in 2011 after the brutal repression of anti-government protests and has since escalated into a complex, multi-faceted war, which has killed more than 270,000 people. France called Monday for a ministerial meeting of the international group supporting Syria to "restore the ceasefire."Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said Paris was "totally mobilized" in pushing for the peace process to resume as quickly as possible. "For that the strikes on Aleppo must stop," he said.

First U.S. Cruise Ship in Half-Century Docks in Cuba
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/May 02/16/The first U.S. cruise ship to travel to Cuba in half a century docked in Havana on Monday, marking a new milestone in the rapprochement between the old Cold War foes. A crowd of onlookers waved Cuban flags and filmed with their cell phones as the Adonia, a Carnival cruiseliner, sailed into port in Havana after setting off Sunday from Miami, the heart of the Cuban diaspora in the United States.

 

Saudi minister confirms warning on proposed US law on 9/11
Jerusalem Post/May 02/16/GENEVA - Saudi Arabia has warned the United States that a proposed US law that could hold the kingdom responsible for any role in the Sept 11, 2001, attacks would erode global investor confidence in America, its foreign minister said on Monday. The minister, Adel al-Jubeir, speaking to reporters in Geneva after talks with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, which mainly focused on Syria, denied that Saudi Arabia had "threatened" to withdraw investment from its close ally. The New York Times reported last month that the Riyadh government had threatened to sell up to $750 billion worth of American assets should the US Congress pass a bill that would take away immunity from foreign governments in cases arising from a "terrorist attack that kills an American on American soil.""We say a law like this would cause an erosion of investor confidence. But then to kind of say, 'My God the Saudis are threatening us' - ridiculous," Jubeir said. "We don't use monetary policy and we don't use energy policy and we don't use economic policy for political purposes. When we invest, we invest as investors. When we sell oil, we sell oil as traders." Jubeir, pressed on whether the Saudia Arabia had suggested the law could affect its investment policies, said: "I say you can warn. What has happened is that people are saying we threatened. We said that a law like this is going to cause investor confidence to shrink. And so not just for Saudi Arabia, but for everybody."The New York Times, citing administration officials and congressional aides, said that the Obama administration had lobbied Congress to block passage of the bill, which passed the Senate Judiciary Committee earlier this year. "In fact what they are doing is stripping the principle of sovereign immunities which would turn the world for international law into the law of the jungle," Jubeir said. "That's why the administration is opposed to it, and that's why every country in the world is opposed to it. "And then people say 'Saudi Arabia is threatening the US by pulling our investments'. Nonsense."


Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 03/16

Opinion: Syria – What is Russia up to Now?
Eyad Abu Shakra/Asharq Al Awsat/May 02/16
Those following the ‘Syrian Uprising’ and its repercussions during the last five years have been torn between two positions: the first, giving international stances – especially, Russia’s – the benefit of the doubt based on the assumption that regardless of the strength of its alliance with a certain regime, no government would ever keep quiet about genocide. The second, and much more realistic, expected that at least Russia would stick with the Assad regime come what may.
In the beginning, Russia’s and China’s use of the ‘Veto’ at the UN Security Council in order to prevent any decisive action against the Assad regime – after it decided to deal with its people by mass murder and uprooting – alerted many to the notion that Moscow’s interests in Syria were plentiful and complex. However, the overall picture remained ‘hazy’ for those who preferred to view Moscow’s position merely as a ‘We Are Here’ message to the USA and Europe; aiming to warn them against disregarding its interests as they did in Libya.
This was how some read the situation after the first ‘double Russo-Chinese Vetoes’; but an increasing number of those began to change their minds after the third ‘double Vetoes’, and began to notice a seriousness and stubbornness in the Kremlin expressed in the ugliest way by Foreign Secretary Sergei Lavrov and the media ‘security – linked’ mouthpieces commentating on the crisis in the Arab and world media. By then it became crystal clear to many that reality was much more that ‘reminding’ and warning, and was becoming much more sinister; more so as Washington’s true position was unfolding parallel with its political and nuclear ‘normalization’ with Tehran, and the collapse of its false Syrian ‘red lines’.
In fact, it did not take long for the USA to prove it was not a ‘friend of the Syrian people’ – if it ever was – but rather became a neutral actor at best. Subsequently, meetings between the US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russia’s counterpart Lavrov, became more like cordial social occasions than serious discussions aimed at solving serious problems against the background of massacres and suppression throughout Syria, not forgetting those perishing in the sea and suffering in refugee camps.
During the last few years, as President Barack Obama abandoned the plight of the Syrian people, by claiming that his top priority was fighting ISIS, Moscow did not stop at supporting the Assad regime militarily and diplomatically, but started working diligently to destroy the genuine Syrian opposition, and ‘fabricate’ a fake opposition composed mostly of the regime’s intelligence ‘puppets’.
Unfortunately, as Moscow embarked on this plan, it succeeded in exploiting certain political sensitivities of some Arab governments, which has helped the Kremlin in creating this ‘puppet’ fake opposition and forcing it on the negotiating table. This would mean that any serious political dialogue becomes a ‘chat’ between the regimes and its creations, reproducing the same gang that would continue what it has been doing, but using new ‘fresh’ faces.
Still, on its own such Russian endeavours would not have been enough, given the failure of Iran’s ‘multi-national’ militias to win its battles on the ground, and the ability of the opposition forces to maintain their momentum and sense of purpose despite all attempts to undermine them, politically through ‘fake’ opposition, and militarily through ISIS which has been fighting the opposition with full collusion from the regime. Furthermore, there have been fears within Syria’s religious and sectarian minorities of the outcome of Iran’s hegemony, whether through its IRGC or its expropriation of lands through forced uprooting, evictions and dubious ‘purchases’ from absentee landowners (i.e. refugees).
The above-mentioned factors, namely the ‘steadfastness of the popular Uprising’ and the ‘fears of minorities’ – especially, the Christian communities – seem to have convinced Moscow of the necessity of direct military intervention. This, evidently, was made easier in September 2015 thanks to the ‘Obama Doctrine’ based on siding with ‘Political Shi’ism’ throughout the Middle East against the extremist face of ‘Political Sunnism’ as represented by ISIS and ‘Jabhat An-Nusra’ (Al-Qa’eda’s branch in Syria).
Today, while Russia and Iran are fighting alongside the regime, Washington has been severing all its past commitments to the Syrian Opposition, cementing its links with the Iraqi premier Haider Abadi – a prominent face of regional ‘moderate Political Shi’ism’ –, and launching a ‘strategic movement’ with the Kurds of Iraq and Syria that threatens to speedily break up the two countries, and perhaps Turkey too. At the moment, Washington is dealing politically, militarily and financially with the leadership of the ‘Kurdistan Autonomous Region’ in Iraq as a fully-fledged independent state. With regards to Syria, Washington has turned a blind eye to Iran’s direct military involvement, fully adopted Moscow’s ‘interpretations’ of almost all agreements reached in Geneva, and kept quiet towards Moscow’s attempts to create a ‘puppet’ opposition through which it plans to undermine any genuine negotiations leading to a political settlement.
This American position, as previously mentioned, could be explained by the ‘Obama Doctrine’, but no less important is the need to comprehend the Russian ‘scenario’ given that Washington is fully behind it.
The serious nature of how Russia is acting in the Near East is underlined not only by the visit of Qassin Suleiman, the commander of ‘Al-Quds Brigade’ in Iran’s IRCG to Moscow against Washington’s ‘deafening silence’, or Moscow’s insistence that a separate pro-Moscow Kurdish delegation takes part in any future Syria talks, but also underlined by the continuous Russian dialogue with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.
Israel is definitely a crucial player in every game played in the Near East, and any thought that it may ‘distance itself’ from its politics, problems and future maps is absolute nonsense.
Yes, Israel is a major and effective player whose interests are taken seriously in Washington, Moscow and even Tehran; and thus, no future maps are going to be drawn in the region without its knowledge, approval and regard to its interests and desire

 

Iran’s army chief takes command in Syria
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 02/16
The chief of staff of the Iranian military, Maj. Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, arrived in Damascus on April 30 to assume direct command of the Iranian, Syrian and Hizballah forces fighting in Syria, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources report. His arrival showed Iran has significantly stepped up its military involvement in Syria.
Sources close to Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said May 1 in Tehran that the general arrived in Damascus “to personally supervise the battles and the borders that were determined.” The sources did not specify which battles he would command or who had set the borders. They also did not say whether the borders referred to those of the war raging in Syria, or the country’s sovereign borders.
According to debkafile’s sources in Moscow and Tehran, just as Russian President Vladimir Putin and his country’s military command see the current offensive by Russian, Iranian, Syrian and Hizballah forces around Aleppo as the climax of the Russian military intervention, the Iranians see the battle for Aleppo as pivotal for the future of Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime, as well as Tehran’s standing in Damascus.
Tehran also believes that the battle around Syria’s largest city will play a major role in determining all of the country’s borders, not just its northern one.
Our sources report that there are sharp differences between Moscow and Tehran on this point. It seems that the main role of Maj. Gen. Firouzabadi will be to ensure that immediately after the capture of Aleppo, his country’s forces will focus their operations on other areas of Syria where Iran, not Russia, has strategic interests.
One example of such an area is southern Syria, which borders both Israel and Jordan.
In other words, Israel must be prepared for the possibility that the Iranian chief of staff will personally take charge of the deployment of Iranian, Syrian and Hizballah forces along Syria’s border with the Golan Heights.
Until now, Israel’s government and military command had believed that it was possible to secure the northern border though understandings with Putin. But now, that assessment has been proven to be mistaken with the arrival of the Iranian general in Damascus, and Tehran’s announcement that Firouzabadi will deal with the issue of borders, among others.
debkafile’s military sources point out that another main reason for the dispatch of the chief of staff is the fact that Iran has sent large forces from elite units of its standing army to Syria during the last month. It is the first time in Iran’s modern history that its standing army forces have been sent to fight beyond the country’s borders.
Over the past few weeks, the arrival of Iran’s 65th Airborne Brigade of the Special Forces-NOHED brigade drew particular attention.
Our sources report that this brigade will serve as the spearhead of the Iranian, Syrian and Hizballah assault on rebel positions in Aleppo.
According to the understandings reached by the Russian and Iranian general staffs, there is a clear division of responsibility between the forces of the two sides in the campaign. The Russian air force and heavy artillery will strike the rebel bases and positions in and around the city, while the Iranians, Syrians and Hizballah advance on the ground. After those forces surround the rebels in Aleppo, they will launch an all-out attack.

 

Egyptian Dhimmitude: Christian Official Lures Child Back to Muslim Grandfather and Orders Her to “Remove the Cross”
Raymond Ibrahim/FrontPage Magazine/May 02/16
Nabila Makram—the only Coptic Christian currently serving as a minister in the Egyptian government—may have unwittingly exposed how she reached that position during a televised interview.
In the interview, she told the story of a young Egyptian girl named Kariman. Apparently her Muslim mother divorced her father and fled to Italy with an Italian man, taking the girl with her when she was 5-years-old. The man later left the mother, who took Kariman to a convent in Rome and left her in the care of the nuns before reportedly committing suicide. Four years later, when Kariman was nine, her Muslim grandfather began demanding that the girl be returned to him in Egypt. So Nabila Makram, the Coptic minister, played an “important role,” as she boasted in the interview.
After explaining how difficult it was to extradite the girl from Italy, as Kariman did not want to leave the convent where she was happily living with the sisters, Makram went on to say that “Kariman was flown [to Egypt] wearing a cross, because of course she had grown in a convent—actually, she was raised at the hands of nuns, even though she was a Muslim.”As a result, Makram—the Christian—“explained to the girl that, sure, faith is in the heart, but you need to take off the cross for you’re returning to your grandfather, to a new life, or rather, your old life.”
The young girl reluctantly complied even though, as Makram admitted, she was immensely upset—so much so that Makram feared she’d take her life in the airplane on the way to Cairo and arranged for an Egypt Air airline attendant to accompany her and keep watch over her during the flight.
Thus Nabila Makram sheds light as to how she, a Coptic Christian, sees her role as a minister in the Egyptian government: to happily behave as one of the dhimmis, third class non-Muslim citizens who know their place. Instead of letting this young girl remain in safety with the Italian sisters who cared for her, she extradited the girl back to her grandfather—who only seemed to show interest in the girl when she reached the age of nine, when girls can marry based on Muhammad’s precedent with Aisha—all while forcing the girl to cast aside the crucifix.
Such is the Islamic Hate for the Christian Cross.Nabila Makram appears to be the sort of Copt welcome to positions of authority in Egypt: a sort of “Christian” that lures if not forces a child from a safe and positive environment in order to satisfy a fanatic Muslim grandfather who is more interested in preserving the girl’s Islamic religion than her happiness or wellbeing—certainly not her Christianity.

 

Europe's Migration Crisis: No End in Sight

Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/May 02/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7916/europe-migration-crisis
According to France's Defense Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, 800,000 migrants are currently in Libyan territory waiting to cross the Mediterranean.
The multitude of very costly social problems that Muslim migration into Europe has caused thus far, do not exist in this whitewashed European Union report, where the "research" indicates that migrants are always a boon. Similarly, any mention of the very real security costs necessitated by the Islamization occurring in Europe, and the need for monitoring of potential jihadists, simply goes unmentioned.
Several European states have a less optimistic picture of the prospect of another three million migrants arriving on Europe's borders than either the Pope or the European Commission do.
Pope Francis, on his recent visit to the Greek island of Lesbos, said that Europe must respond to the migrant crisis with solutions that are "worthy of humanity." He also decried "that dense pall of indifference that clouds hearts and minds." The Pope then proceeded to demonstrate what he believes is a response "worthy of humanity" by bringing 12 Syrian Muslims with him on his plane to Italy. "It's a drop of water in the sea. But after this drop, the sea will never be the same," the Pope mused.
The Pope's speech did not contain a single reference to the harsh consequences of Muslim migration into the European continent for Europeans. Instead, the speech was laced with reflections such as "...barriers create divisions instead of promoting the true progress of peoples, and divisions sooner or later lead to confrontations" and "...our willingness to continue to cooperate so that the challenges we face today will not lead to conflict, but rather to the growth of the civilization of love."
The Pope went back to his practically migrant-free Vatican City -- those 12 Syrian Muslims will be hosted by Italy, not the Vatican, although the Holy See will be supporting them -- leaving it to ordinary Europeans to cope with the consequences of "the growth of the civilization of love."
There is nothing quite as free in this world as not practicing what you preach, and what the Pope is preaching is the acceptance of more migration into Europe, and more migration -- much more -- is indeed what is in the cards for Europe.
At the UN's Geneva conference on Syrian refugees on March 30, Italy's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Paolo Gentiloni, put the total number of asylum seekers into Italy in the first three months of 2016 at 18,234. This is already 80% higher than in the same period in 2015.
According to Paolo Serra, military adviser to Martin Kobler, the UN's Libya envoy, migrants currently in Libya will head for Italy in large numbers if the country is not stabilized. "If we do not intervene, there could be 250,000 arrivals [in Italy] by the end of 2016," he said. According to France's Defense Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian, the number is much higher: 800,000 migrants are currently in Libyan territory waiting to cross the Mediterranean.
Already in November 2015, the European Union estimated -- in its Autumn 2015 European Economic Forecast, authored by the European Commission -- that by the end of 2016, another three million migrants will have made it into the European Union.
Nevertheless, the European Commission optimistically noted that, "while unevenly distributed among countries, the estimated additional public expenditure related to the arrival of asylum seekers is limited for most EU member states." It even concluded that the migrant crisis could have a small, positive impact on European economies within a few years citing that "Research indicates that non-EU migrants typically receive less in individual benefits than they contribute in taxes and social contribution."
This is the classic, politically correct denial of facts on the ground. The multitude of very costly social problems that Muslim migration into Europe has caused thus far do not exist in this whitewashed report, where the "research" indicates that migrants are always a boon. Similarly, any mention of the very real security costs necessitated by the Islamization that is occurring in Europe and the consequent need for monitoring of potential jihadists, simply goes unmentioned. One wonders whether the EU bureaucrats, who authored this report, ever descend from their ivory towers and move about in the real Europe.
Several European states have a less optimistic picture of the prospect of another three million migrants arriving on Europe's borders than either the Pope or the European Commission do. In February, Austria announced that it would introduce border controls at border crossings along frontiers with Italy, Slovenia and Hungary. On April 12, Austria began preparations for introducing border controls on its side of the Brenner Pass, the main Alpine crossing into Italy, by starting work on a wall between the two countries.
The Austrian decision to close the Brenner pass has received harsh criticism from the EU. European Commission spokeswoman Natasha Bertaud criticized the measure as unwarranted, claiming that "there is indeed no evidence that flows of irregular migrants are shifting from Greece to Italy". Is Bertaud deliberately misrepresenting the issue? The issue is not whether the migrants are shifting from Greece to Italy after the EU's unsavory deal with Turkey (they probably will) but the up to 800,000 migrants are already waiting to cross into Italy from Libya.
EU Migration Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos joined in the criticism of Austria, saying, "What is happening at the border between Italy and Austria is not the right solution." He had criticized Austria already in February, when Vienna announced that it would cap asylum claims at 80 per day. At the time, Avramopoulos said,
"It is true that Austria is under huge pressure... It is true they are overwhelmed. But, on the other hand, there are some principles and laws that all countries must respect and apply... The Austrians are obliged to accept asylum applications without putting a cap."
In response, Austria's Chancellor Werner Faymann told the EU that Austria could not just let the influx of migrants continue unchecked -- nearly 100,000 have applied for asylum in Austria -- and he called for the EU to act. The EU has not yet acted.
The EU should hardly be surprised that a sovereign state decides to take matters into its own hands in the face of the EU's failure to heed that call, and as it anticipates a repeat of last year's migration chaos -- which, given the predicted estimates, is bound to occur this year with even greater force.
Predictably, Italy has also criticized the decision, with Italian Interior Minister Angelino Alfano saying that Austria's decision to erect the barrier is "unexplainable and unjustifiable." Italy, however, only has itself to blame for Austria's restrictions at the Brenner Pass. In 2014 and the first half of 2015, around 300,000 migrants arrived in Italy, mainly from Libya. Despite EU rules that require Italy to register those migrants, Italy simply let most of them pass through the country and continue into Austria. From there, most went further into Germany and Northern Europe. Clearly, Austria does not expect the Italians to change their practices.
Austrian police prepare to hold the line at the Brenner Pass border crossing with Italy, as a crowd tries to break through during a violent protest on April 3, 2016, against Austria's introduction of border controls to stem the flow of migrants. (Image source: RT video screenshot)
While the bureaucrats of the EU bicker with their member states over those states' unwillingness to follow EU regulations -- evidently not made to cope with a migration crisis of these huge proportions -- Turkey's President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is threatening to drop his obligations under a recent EU-Turkey migration deal. Those obligations include taking back all new "irregular migrants" crossing from Turkey into Greek islands, as well as taking any necessary measures to prevent the opening of new sea or land routes for migration from Turkey to the EU. "There are precise conditions. If the European Union does not take the necessary steps, then Turkey will not implement the agreement," Erdogan warned recently in a speech in Ankara.
Erdogan knows that in the current European reality, his words have the effect he intends: When he threatens to flood Europe with migrants unless it does what he wants -- in other words, blackmail -- EU leaders will do what he says. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, one of the driving forces behind the EU-Turkey deal, also recently bowed to Erdogan's demands that Germany prosecute the satirist Jan Böhmermann, after he mocked and insulted the Turkish president in a poem. The German criminal code prohibits insults against foreign leaders, but leaves it to the government to decide whether to authorize prosecutors to pursue such cases. Angela Merkel gave her authorization, a decision widely criticized. Her own ministers -- Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and Justice Minister Heiko Maas -- said they did not believe that the authorization should have been granted.
Another indication that Erdogan has no reason to fear any misbehavior on the part of the European Union regarding the EU-Turkey deal is that the European Parliament just voted in favor of making Turkish an official European Union language. Ostensibly, the vote came about in order to back an initiative by the president of Cyprus, Nicos Anastasiades, who asked the Dutch EU Presidency to add Turkish to the bloc's 24 official languages in order to boost attempts to reach a reunification agreement for Cyprus.
In his letter to the EU presidency, Anastasiades noted that Cyprus had already filed a similar request during its EU entry talks in 2002, but, at that time, it "was advised by the [EU] institutions not to insist, taking into account the limited practical purpose of such a development ... as well as the considerable cost". Turkey's occupation of northern Cyprus, which Turkey invaded in 1974, is one of the issues blocking Turkey's accession negotiations with the EU.
Making Turkish an official language is seen by Turkey, according to a senior Turkish official, as "a very important, very positive gesture" for the Cyprus peace talks and for EU-Turkish ties more broadly. "If the blockage is lifted because of Cyprus being solved, then we can proceed very quickly," the Turkish official said.
All of the other official and working languages of the European Union are tied to states which are full members of the EU. Although the vote has to be approved by the European Commission before the decision can come into effect, it speaks volumes about the EU's deference to Erdogan.
In light of these developments, the granting of visa-free travel to European Union states for 80 million Turks looks as if it is a done deal, despite the 72 conditions, which Turkey, at least on paper, is expected to live up to. These include increasing the use of biometric passports and other technical requirements. So far, Turkey has only met half of these conditions. Perhaps that is why European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker recently felt the need to mention that, "Turkey must fulfill all remaining conditions so that the Commission can adopt its proposal in the coming months. The criteria will not be watered down." The question is whether Juncker himself even believes his own words.
With the provisions on visa-free travel for 80 million Turks, the EU may just have gone from the frying pan into the fire. The visa-free admission of Turks into Europe would give Erdogan completely free rein to control the influx of migrants into Europe. Moreover, anyone believing that Erdogan would not take great advantage of this opportunity would have to be dangerously naïve. The European Union may yet conclude that the migrant crisis, in all its enormity, is the far lesser evil.
Judith Bergman is a writer, columnist, lawyer and political analyst.
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Reza Moridi: The Changing Faces of an Iranian-Canadian MPP

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/May 02/16
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7952/reza-moridi

The real question is: does Moridi represent the Canadian-Iranian community in Canada, or was he just collecting their votes to represent the Iranian and the Azerbaijani governments to Canada?
Although Moridi has ridden to his present position on the Iranian votes in Canada, he has changed faces and seems to be representing the interests of several other governments and institutions -- including the Iranian regime; the Islamic Revolutionary Guards business empire and its links in Iran and Canada, and the Azerbaijani government; he is not representing the cultural and political interests of Canada or the Iranian-Canadians who gave him a seat in the Ontario government.
In Iran's political establishment, as in others, there are often opportunistic figures who change their colors and views, apparently based on what they might gain politically and economically.
A current example is Reza Moridi, a Canadian citizen originally from Iran, who is currently a Member of Provincial Parliament (MPP) in Ontario and the provincial government's Minister of Research and Innovation.
Originally, to benefit from the votes of Iranian-Canadian constituents, Moridi strongly opposed human rights abuses committed by the Iranian regime and rejected the idea of rapprochement with Iran, currently the world leader per capita in executing people.
Previously, he had written a letter to Canada's then prime minister, Stephen Harper, urging "the Government of Canada to continue speaking out against the restrictions on free speech and democracy in Iran" and arguing that "The Iranian people must have the opportunity to voice their opinions freely and without fear of harm."
But his position soon changed dramatically. Suddenly, the Iranian regime's human rights violations, oppression, and interventions in other countries became less of an issue. He recently met with Canada's External Affairs Minister, Stephane Dion, to discuss further rapprochement with Iran's regime, and is currently calling on the Canadian government to re-open its embassy in Tehran.
Canada severed diplomatic ties with the Iranian regime in September 2012 to protest the support of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for the Syrian regime, as well as to protest Iran's financial, intelligence and military assistance to Syria's President Bashar Assad. Iran's support has made it a partner in the Syrian regime's bombing and killing of hundreds of thousands of civilians, and thereby complicit in Syria's crimes against humanity. Other crucial reasons included threats by Iran's leaders against Israel, as well as fears for the safety of Canadian diplomats when Iran breached international laws and began attacking foreign embassies in Tehran.
Through his policy shifts, Mr. Moridi has been totally disregarding Iran's and the Syrian regime's brutality, dehumanization, and subjugation of people. He has also been disregarding Iran's expansionist, imperialistic policies, Iran's threats to Israel, and Iran's violations of international and diplomatic norms. One would wonder whether Mr. Moridi is trying to pave the way to become the Canadian ambassador to Iran and serve Iran's interests?
Moridi has also been pressing the Canadian government to allow the Islamic Republic to reopen its embassy in Canada. Such a move would invite the Iranian regime to set foot in Canada, and further spread the anti-Western, anti-American and anti-Semitic propaganda of Iran's current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
Reopening the Iranian Embassy in Canada would also help the powerful IRGC to penetrate Canada's society and exert its extremist Islamist influence there.
In an event in Ontario marking the third anniversary of Iran's rigged elections, and where the keynote speaker was someone who used to work with Iranian officials, Moridi stated that it was not a problem if someone worked for the Iranian regime for many years and then distanced himself from it. That means if someone helped Iran's regime in killing thousands of people for many years and stealing their property, and suddenly decided to leave the powers that be in Iran, he should not be held accountable?
In a recent meeting with Stephan Dion, Canada's foreign minister, Moridi also expressed the opinion that Canadian businesses are falling behind in doing business with Iran. As Iran's economy is controlled by the IRGC and the Supreme Leader, any business conducted on a state level only empowers and emboldens Khamenei, increases the stranglehold of IRGC and its Quds Force branch, which operates in foreign countries. Increased business with Iran would further help these organizations support Syria's dictator, Hezbollah and Shiite militia groups, and extend its ideological influence in the Middle East and beyond. This begs the question of whether Mr. Moridi has established connections with the Iranian business owners in Iran and Canada who are linked to IRGC.
Changing colors appears to be a normal condition for Moridi, and occurs in other contexts as well. To gain the votes of Iranian-Canadians, Mr. Moridi projects himself as the representative of the Iranians in Canada. But the real question is: is he representing the Canadian-Iranian community in Canada, or was he just collecting their votes to represent the Iranian and the Azerbaijani governments to Canada?
In an interview with the state media outlet of the Azerbaijani government, Moridi has been declaring his support for the authoritarian government of Azerbaijan -- where a majority of the population are Shiite Muslim and a few politicians on top seem to have accumulated most of the nation's wealth
It is often hard to tell if is Moridi representing the Iranian-Canadians or Azerbaijan. Is he an advocate of Azerbaijani separatism from Iran? In this video and statement to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario in Toronto, he seems to be lobbying for the Azerbaijani government and representing them, rather than the Iranian-Canadians. He calls Azerbaijan a democracy. He ignores reports by Human Rights Watch that this is a country known for its human rights violations, torture and corruption. This issue also begs the question whether he is obtaining financial gains from politicians in Azerbaijan. He also reportedly argued that Azerbaijanis should be more organized and coordinated in denying the Armenian genocide, and that Azerbaijanis in Canada should also put more efforts in denying the Armenian genocide.
But when Moridi faces Iranians in Canada or appears on Iranian media outlets, he shows his other face, arguing that he is their representative and that he advances their cultural and political interests.
Although Moridi has ridden to his present position on the votes of Iranians in Canada, he has changed faces and seems to be representing the interests of several other governments and institutions -- including the Iranian regime, the IRGC business empire and its links in Iran and Canada, and the Azerbaijani government -- and not the cultural and political interests of Canada or the Iranian-Canadians who gave him a seat in the Ontario government.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is an Iranian-American political scientist, Harvard scholar, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He can be reached at Dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu and followed on Twitter at @Dr_Rafizadeh
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Picture attached/Reza Moridi is pictured above in a 2012 campaign video for Ontario Liberal Party leader Kathleen Wynne.

Sisi moves into damage control following island transfer uproar
Albaraa Abdullah/Al-Monitor/May 02/16
On April 4, Egypt signed a maritime border agreement with Saudi Arabia in the presence of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Saudi King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud. Six days later, the Egyptian Council of Ministers announced that the islands of Tiran and Sanafir, both located in the Red Sea, were Saudi territory based on surveys by the National Committee for Egyptian Maritime Border Demarcation and on 11 rounds of meetings held between the two sides over several months. The committee had worked for six years; a number of Egyptian politicians criticized the agreement. Former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabahi called on Sisi and Salman to withdraw the agreement and consider it null and void. He denounced Saudi Arabia for putting itself in a suspicious position for exploiting Egypt's need, saying, "It is not worthy for Egypt to appear as complying because of need.”
Human rights lawyer Khaled Ali announced April 10 that he filed a lawsuit against what he described as "conceding" the islands of Tiran and Sanafir. He called for turning the popular anger into a demand for putting up the agreement to a referendum according to the Egyptian Constitution.
In the same vein, the head of the Strong Egypt Party and former presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh wrote in an April 9 tweet that the agreement threatens Egyptian national security and that the “Zionists” are the only beneficiaries.
The Egyptian government's decision to consider the two islands Saudi territory caused a stir on social media. Satirist Bassem Youssef, who led the criticism on social media, called the decision a "sale" and the Egyptian president “cheap.” He likened Sisi to Awad, a proverbial Egyptian farmer who sold his land to eat. He also said that the president’s legitimacy has been lost.
In the media, there was a lot of confusion and tumult between the agreement’s supporters and opponents. Then a former Egyptian armed forces commander poured oil on the fire. In a televised interview April 9, Maj. Gen. Abdel Moneim Said, the former operations chief of the armed forces and former governor of South Sinai, said that the islands were Egyptian.
Said pointed out that he worked on the island of Tiran in 1955 and that Egypt has two border demarcation points there, stressing that Tiran is only 8 kilometers (5 miles) away from Egyptian territory. But within 24 hours, Said withdrew his comments in a phone call with another Egyptian channel and stated that the two islands were Saudi.
This prompted the presenter of the “10 p.m.” show, on which Said first appeared, to claim that Said was pressured to change his position. The presenter condemned the pressure exerted on national and military figures to change their positions with regard to who owns the islands, stressing that figures with the state apparatus have pressured some “national and military figures” to change their positions on the Tiran and Sanafir issue.
On the other hand, official newspaper Al-Ahram refrained from publishing an article by the head of its board of directors Ahmed El-Naggar, who opposed the agreement on the two islands. So instead, Naggar published his article on Facebook April 17.
On April 13, Sisi met with a number of groups in a meeting attended by the intelligence chief, the defense minister, heads of parliamentary bodies and heads of professional associations. Sisi said that Egypt did not concede any territory but simply gave Saudi Arabia what rightfully belonged to it and asked the people to stop talking about this issue.
Sisi said he was happy to see the Egyptians care so much about their land, but that this caring must be pointed in the right direction and that the mass distrust, including against the state apparatus, must stop.
The president revealed that, before the agreement was made, he wanted the matter to remain under wraps in order to prevent stirring public opinion in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
In a related development, Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported April 11 that Cairo had informed Tel Aviv in advance of its intention to waive its rights to the two islands, which are in the Gulf of Aqaba, to Saudi Arabia. The newspaper reported that during recent Egyptian-Israeli talks, Tel Aviv informed Cairo that it would not oppose handing over the islands to Saudi Arabia as long as Israeli ships can continue to navigate in the region.
On April 15, the criticism on social media moved to the streets. Cairo and several Egyptian provinces witnessed demonstrations by thousands of Egyptians from various political parties protesting the decision. The demonstrators called on overthrowing the regime and chanted slogans against Sisi, such as "The people want to overthrow the regime," "Just go" and "Awad sold his land." The demonstrations were called for by political figures and opposition forces, including the Muslim Brotherhood, and were held under the slogan "Land is Honor.”
In a statement obtained by Al-Monitor, the Egyptian Interior Ministry warned against what it called attempts to lawlessness, in reference to the protests. The security forces arrested a large number of demonstrators. At first, the general prosecutor decided to release them, but then he changed position and ordered them jailed until National Security completes its investigation. The defendants are being charged with demonstrating without notice, disrupting public transportation, blocking roads and threatening security and public order.
In a related event, the US-based global intelligence company Stratfor published a report in which the Egyptian Supreme Council of the Armed Forces warned about conceding the islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia. According to Stratfor’s sources, the council advised Sisi to refrain from transferring sovereignty over the two islands to Saudi Arabia because it would hurt national pride and upset Egyptian public opinion given that the agreement’s timing and its coinciding with the announcement of Saudi investments would make the sovereignty transfer to look like a sale.
Some had called for mass demonstrations on April 25 — the anniversary of the Sinai Peninsula’s liberation — in an attempt to block the sovereignty transfer, yet a large-scale security crackdown led to a limited turnout. In the same regard, during a speech commemorating the 34th anniversary of Sinai’s liberation, Egyptian Defense Minister Sidqi Subhi called on the Egyptian people to unite their voices in order to uphold the nation’s interests, stressing that the armed forces will not tolerate those who try to spread chaos in the streets and will not be blackmailed or pressured.

Aleppo on verge of decisive battle
Al-Monitor/Al-Monitor/May 02/16
Aleppo may be last stand for Salafi groups
UN Syria Envoy Staffan de Mistura has called for an “urgent initiative” by the United States and Russia, including a ministerial meeting of the International Syria Support Group, to re-establish a cessation of hostilities in Syria. While the UN envoy noted “some progress” in the second round of proximity talks between the Syrian government and opposition groups, he said that the next round would be meaningful only if accompanied by a renewed cessation of violence.
The latest round of UN talks, which concluded last week in Geneva, was overshadowed by the escalation of fighting and casualties in Aleppo, including the bombing of the al-Quds hospital, which killed at least 20, including a pediatrician and three children.
The Russian Federation on April 26 formally requested that the UN Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED) add Ahrar al-Sham and Jaish al-Islam to its list of sanctioned organizations because they “are closely linked to terrorist organizations, first of all Islamic State (formerly ISIS/ISIL) and Al-Qaeda, and provide and receive from them financial, material, technical and military support.” Russia has long argued for the two groups’ designation as terrorist entities, which would allow Syria and its allies to make the case for offensive military operations against them, even during a cessation of hostilities, under UN Security Council Resolution 2254. The United Arab Emirates, for its part, has designated Ahrar al-Sham a terrorist organization.
This column has warned since 2013 about the mainstreaming of these foreign backed “rebel” Salafi groups, including by advocates in the West, and would prefer they be excluded from negotiations about Syria’s future, given their radical sectarian ideology. It should, for example, be alarming that the head of the Syrian opposition’s High Negotiations Committee, Mohammad Alloush, is also the leader of Jaish al-Islam. This, while perhaps alarming, is not surprising as the committee was formed in Riyadh. Alloush’s father, Zahran Alloush, was memorably described by one former US official as simply an “ambitious Islamist commander” in an article about a resurgent “moderate” opposition in 2014. For the record, Zahran Alloush was an apocalyptic sectarian hater of the highest order, memorably warning Shiites that “the Umayyad had previously broken your heads, the Levantines will break them again, you impure rejectionists,” among other bile. We would refer to you an article by Ali Mamouri about the mischaracterization of Alloush as a “moderate.”
The United States is well aware of Ahrar al-Sham’s and Jaish al-Islam’s on-again, off-again collaboration with Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, and both groups’ radical Islamic ideology, which barely differs from that of Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State (IS) and has little foundation or appeal among the vast majority of Syrians. Washington has been boxed in, however, because these groups are backed tooth and nail by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar, so Washington has, until now, held the line, and its nose, in resisting Russia’s entreaties in deference to its regional partners and as a means of “pressure” on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
The battle for Aleppo could clarify the next phase in the Syria conflict, especially by putting to the test the alleged popular support of these Salafi groups. We cannot envision the population of this great city rallying to defend the Sharia rule of Ahrar al-Sham or other armed groups. The citizens of Aleppo have endured enough suffering. Our hunch is that they will instead welcome a united city and an end to the fighting, as well as the retreat of the Salafi and jihadi “rebels.” We wrote in January, “A Syrian government victory in Aleppo could be the beginning of the end of the sectarian mindset that would have been alien to the city prior to 2011. There is no more appropriate city to begin Syria’s healing. A Syrian government victory in Aleppo will make it harder to rationalize Western backing for jihadi groups that want to keep up the fight against long odds in the rest of the country. IS and al-Qaeda may prefer, over time, to begin to relocate to Libya and other countries where they can avoid the pounding from the US-led anti-IS coalition and Russian- and Iranian-backed Syrian forces. This may already be happening, and if so, it is to be cheered by those who seek a unified, secular and nonsectarian Syria, as outlined in the Vienna Communique, and as is Aleppo’s tradition.”
Aramco’s 5% may be less than meets the eye
Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who also serves as defense minister and head of the Council of Economic and Developmental Affairs, last week outlined “Saudi Arabia’s 2030 Vision,” an expansive program of economic reform and change.
At the core of the 2030 vision is the public offering of 5% of Aramco’s shares, worth an estimated $2 trillion, which would be the largest such offering ever. Rami Khrais explains that “by listing Aramco, the largest oil company in the world, Saudi Arabia hopes to establish the foundation for turning the PIF [Public Investment Fund] into a sovereign fund that lends itself to diversifying sources of national income away from oil revenues, which account for more than 80% of Saudi exports.”
But here’s the catch: Why would investors put their stake in an industry that the kingdom is seeking to downsize? The decision to wean Saudi Arabia off oil dependence and reduce subsidies — good economic medicine for sure — comes at a time of economic crisis and could be accompanied by social and political volatility, especially if the goal is actually to end oil dependence by 2020, as the deputy crown prince said in the interview.
In an interview on Al-Arabiya television, the deputy crown prince said, “People in the past were displeased with the fact that Aramco's file and data are undeclared, unclear, and nontransparent. Today, it will become transparent.” Transparency is all to the good, but it has not been the hallmark of Saudi decision-making. The kingdom’s regional policies, especially in Yemen, have seemed at times impulsive and emotional and contribute to a climate of regional instability. The Economist noted this week that the “shadow” of the “Wahhabi religious establishment … hangs over all reform in Saudi Arabia.”
Khrais concludes, “Although the Saudis' move to establish a new sovereign fund appears to bode well, that alone is insufficient. It also requires a comprehensive blueprint that establishes the functions and powers of the fund and its governance. In addition, the fund’s objectives must complement the objectives of creating a local economic base for sustainable development. Serious public finance reforms will also need to be implemented to ensure optimum outcomes in the long term.”

What Iran’s first non-oil trade surplus means for its economy
Maysam Bizær/Al-Monitor/May 02/16
TEHRAN, Iran — Iran’s non-oil balance of trade turned positive in the past Iranian year, which ended March 19. The $916 million trade surplus is the country’s first since its 1979 Islamic Revolution. On April 4, President Hassan Rouhani hailed it as an achievement that the country secured despite international sanctions as well as low oil prices.
“Last year, non-oil exports exceeded non-oil imports for the first time since the Islamic Revolution. Progress has been achieved through the support and participation of the people as well as their unity,” Rouhani said.
Figures published by Iran’s Customs Administration for the past Iranian calendar year put non-oil exports at $42.4 billion and imports at $41.5 billion. The non-oil trade balance turned positive as exports witnessed declines of 16.1% and imports declined by 22.5%, compared with the same period in the previous Iranian year.
The Iranian year 1395 began in March; thus, 1394 represents 2015-2016; 1393 represents 2014-2015; 1392 represents 2013-2014; 1391 represents 2012-2013; 1390 represents 2011-2012, and so on, with 1380 representing 2001-2002. "Mn $" represents millions of dollars.
Ali Mohammad Goodarzi, adviser to the minister and head of public relations and the communications center at the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, believes that the government’s policies played a direct role in achieving a positive trade balance.
“The government’s success in the talks with the P5+1 countries (the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany) over Iran’s nuclear program, improvement of the business environment, incremental return of Iran to the global economy and the creation of mutual trust between Iran and the European Union are among the factors that led to a positive trade balance,” Goodarzi told Al-Monitor.
As for the domestic policies, the Iranian official believes that “controlling the country’s inflation as well as export-oriented strategies and monetary discipline of the government” have also played a role.
Rouhani and other administration officials’ hailing of the positive trade balance has not been welcomed by everyone. Some figures active in the economic arena do not regard it as an achievement, arguing that it was only the result of sharp drops in both imports and exports, as well as what they call “unusual economic conditions.”
Mohammad Reza Sabzalipur, head of the World Trade Center Tehran, told al-Monitor, “It is not a positive balance of trade. Rather it shows austerity and economic contraction. The overall foreign trade of the country was around $40 billion last year, of which imports shrank by nearly 25% and exports by 18% compared to the same period the previous year.”
May 02/16
Critics also argue that the non-oil trade surplus does not reflect an economic improvement, given that Iran’s economy is hit by a recession while falling imports have reduced domestic production.
Asadollah Asgaroladi, a prominent businessman who is also a member of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, told the local Eghtesad News, “It is not a good matter that Iran’s balance of trade has become positive. If imports are reduced, domestic demands cannot be met. It is good to reduce imports of consumer goods, but imports of production machinery and raw materials should be increased, otherwise smugglers will import them.”
Although official figures indicate a positive trade balance, it is no secret that smuggling, which is not included in official data, has long been a major issue for the Islamic Republic.
The value of smuggled imports is estimated at an average of between $15 billion to $25 billion a year. Mehdi Pourqazi, head of the Industry Commission at Tehran’s Chamber of Commerce, told the online outlet Omid-e-Iranian that if this estimate is added to the bill for legal imports, “the balance of trade would not be positive.”
Meanwhile, some economic experts see distorted foreign exchange rates and the government ban on imports of luxury cars as other factors behind the slide in imports. They argue that foreign exchange rates must be determined based on economic realities rather than petrodollars to boost domestic production and exports while reducing smuggling.
As Rouhani administration officials — and their critics — continue to see the country’s trade balance as black or white, there are experts who believe it all could be both an opportunity and a threat. Daniel Khazeni-Rad, an editor at English-language economic daily Financial Tribune, told Al-Monitor, “The positive trade balance can be seen in two ways. First, it shows that Iran finally has moved from an oil-based economy to a mixed economy. It also denotes a worrying trend on the other hand as local manufacturers have tougher external competition. This is likely to be compounded when Iran's application to the World Trade Organization is accepted and tariffs and protectionist policies must make way for fairer treatment of foreign businesses."
Iranian officials stress that the government has tried to lower imports of basic goods such as wheat and replace them with domestically made products — all part of its policy to implement the so-called resistance economy promoted by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Following the Jan. 16 removal of nuclear-related sanctions as part of the implementation of the nuclear deal, international institutions such as the World Bank have predicted that Iran’s economy will grow 3-5% in 2016. Economic experts say that an increase in exports in the non-oil sectors will largely depend on how the government uses its foreign exchange reserves. With the expected gradual return of Iranian business to the global market, it now remains to be seen how the government can materialize its promise to revive the country's economy and expand its share of global trade.