LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN

September 11/16

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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Bible Quotations For Today

As you, Father, are in me and I am in you, may they also be in us, so that the world may believe that you have sent me.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 17/20-26/:'‘I ask not only on behalf of these, but also on behalf of those who will believe in me through their word, that they may all be one. As you, Father, are in me and I am in you, may they also be in us, so that the world may believe that you have sent me. The glory that you have given me I have given them, so that they may be one, as we are one, I in them and you in me, that they may become completely one, so that the world may know that you have sent me and have loved them even as you have loved me. Father, I desire that those also, whom you have given me, may be with me where I am, to see my glory, which you have given me because you loved me before the foundation of the world. ‘Righteous Father, the world does not know you, but I know you; and these know that you have sent me. I made your name known to them, and I will make it known, so that the love with which you have loved me may be in them, and I in them.’"

While physical training is of some value, godliness is valuable in every way, holding promise for both the present life and the life to come.
First Letter to Timothy 04/06-16/:'If you put these instructions before the brothers and sisters, you will be a good servant of Christ Jesus, nourished on the words of the faith and of the sound teaching that you have followed. Have nothing to do with profane myths and old wives’ tales. Train yourself in godliness, for, while physical training is of some value, godliness is valuable in every way, holding promise for both the present life and the life to come. The saying is sure and worthy of full acceptance. For to this end we toil and struggle, because we have our hope set on the living God, who is the Saviour of all people, especially of those who believe. These are the things you must insist on and teach. Let no one despise your youth, but set the believers an example in speech and conduct, in love, in faith, in purity. Until I arrive, give attention to the public reading of scripture, to exhorting, to teaching. Do not neglect the gift that is in you, which was given to you through prophecy with the laying on of hands by the council of elders.Put these things into practice, devote yourself to them, so that all may see your progress. Pay close attention to yourself and to your teaching; continue in these things, for in doing this you will save both yourself and your hearers."

Question: "What is God?"
GotQuestions.org?
Answer: A. W. Tozer wrote, “’What is God like?’ If by that question we mean ‘What is God like in Himself?’ there is no answer. If we mean ‘What has God disclosed about Himself that the reverent reason can comprehend?’ there is, I believe, an answer both full and satisfying.”
Tozer is right in that we cannot know what God is with respect to Himself. The book of Job declares, “Can you discover the depths of God? Can you discover the limits of the Almighty? They are high as the heavens, what can you do? Deeper than Sheol, what can you know?” (Job 11:7–8).
However, we can ask what God has revealed about Himself in His Word and in creation that “the reverent reason” can grasp.
When Moses was directed by God to go to the Egyptian Pharaoh and demand the release of the Israelites, Moses asked God, “Behold, I am going to the sons of Israel, and I will say to them, ‘The God of your fathers has sent me to you.’ Now they may say to me, ‘What is His name?’ What shall I say to them?” (Exodus 3:13).
The answer God gave Moses was simple, yet very revealing: “God said to Moses, ‘I AM WHO I AM’; and He said, ‘Thus you shall say to the sons of Israel, “I AM has sent me to you”’” (Exodus 3:14). The Hebrew text in verse 14 literally says, “I be that I be.”
This name speaks to the fact that God is pure existence, or what some call pure actuality. Pure actuality is that which IS with no possibility to not exist. Put another way, many things can have existence (e.g., human beings, animals, plants), but only one thing can be existence. Other things have “being” but only God is Being.
The fact that God alone is Being leads to at least five truths about what God is – what type of being God is.
First, God alone is a self-existent being and the first cause of everything else that exists. John 5:26 simply says, “The Father has life in Himself.” Paul preached, “He is not served by human hands, as if He needed anything, because He Himself gives all men life and breath and everything else” (Acts 17:25).
Second, God is a necessary being. A necessary being is one whose nonexistence is impossible. Only God is a necessary being; all other things are contingent beings, meaning they could not exist. However, if God did not exist, then neither would anything else. He alone is the necessary being by which everything else currently exists – a fact that Job states: “If He should determine to do so, If He should gather to Himself His spirit and His breath, All flesh would perish together, And man would return to dust” (Job 34:14–15).
Third, God is a personal being. The word personal in this context does not describe personality (e.g., funny, outgoing, etc.); rather, it means “having intent.” God is a purposeful being who has a will, creates, and directs events to suit Him. The prophet Isaiah wrote, “I am God, and there is no other; I am God, and there is no one like Me, declaring the end from the beginning, and from ancient times things which have not been done, saying, ‘My purpose will be established, And I will accomplish all My good pleasure’” (Isaiah 46:9–10).
Fourth, God is a triune being. This truth is a mystery, yet the whole of Scripture and life in general speaks to this fact. The Bible clearly articulates that there is but one God: “Hear, O Israel: The Lord our God, the Lord is one” (Deut. 6:4). But the Bible also declares that there is a plurality to God. Before Jesus ascended to heaven, He commanded His disciples: “Go therefore and make disciples of all the nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and the Son and the Holy Spirit” (Matthew 28:19). Notice the singular “name” in the verse; it does not say “names,” which would convey three gods. There is one name belonging to the three Persons who make up the Godhead.
Scripture in various places clearly calls the Father God, Jesus God, and the Holy Spirit God. For example, the fact that Jesus possesses self-existence and is the first cause of everything is stated in the first verses of John: “All things came into being through Him, and apart from Him nothing came into being that has come into being. In Him was life” (John 1:3–4). The Bible also says that Jesus is a necessary being: “He is before all things, and in Him all things hold together” (Colossians 1:17).
Fifth, God is a loving being. In the same way that many things can exist but only one thing can be existence, people and other living things can possess and experience love, but only one thing can be love. First John 4:8 makes the simple ontological statement, “God is love.”
What is God? God is the only one who can say, “I be that I be.” God is pure existence, self-existent, and the source of everything else that possesses existence. He is the only necessary being, is purposeful/personal, and possesses both unity and diversity.
God is also love. He invites you to seek Him and discover the love He has for you in His Word and in the life of His Son Jesus Christ, the one who died for your sins and made a way for you to live with Him for eternity.

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on September 10-11/16

Lebanon’s political conundrum continues/Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf News/September 10/16
Spillover from Syria as rebel factions announce new offensive/Yoav Zitun, Roi Kaiis, Ahiya Raved|/Ynetnews/September 10/16
Germany: Beginning of the End of the Merkel Era/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/September 10/16
‘And what is Aleppo/Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/September 10/16
When disruptive technology disrupts absolutely/Ehtesham Shahid/Al Arabiya/September 10/16
The Calais wall: Ring-fencing humanity/Yara al-Wazir/Al Arabiya/September 10/16
Sitting and standing during the national anthem/Mshari Al Thaydi/Al Arabiya/September 10/16
In Saudi Arabia, a revolution disguised as reform/By Dennis Ross/The Washinton Post/September 10/16
Obama hands Syria over to Putin/DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 10/16

Titles For Latest Lebanese Related News published on on September 10-11/16
Report: Hizbullah Says Everyone in Trouble, We Need Solutions Not Discord
Rahi: Reforms are Necessary but Minimizing Christians' Presence Unacceptable
Report: Geagea Warns against Attempts to Amend the Constitution
Army Finds Spy Device in Liberated Lebanese Territories
Army Arrests Two Lebanese for Smuggling Syrians into Lebanon
Kidnappers Set Baalbek Doctor Free
Lebanese General Security Arrests Culprits in Ksara Bombing
Rahi hopes politicians would find solution to current paralysis
Abou Faour: Vast majority of politicians conspire against public education
Finance Minister: We search for means of putting dialogue back on right path
Youth group protests against beach reclamation project in KfarAabida: The beach represents the region's identity, and any change will thus destroy it!
Geagea holds meeting with Kenaan in Mehrab
Marouni: Kataeb Party shall work to abolish Article 522 of the Criminal Law to ensure justice for women!
Lebanon’s political conundrum continues

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on on September 10-11/16
US, Russia announce Syria truce plan
IS Bombings near Baghdad Mall Kill at Least 13 People
Syria Opposition Cautiously Welcomes U.S.-Russia Truce Deal
Turkey Welcomes Russia-U.S. Syria Truce Plan
US-Russian Syria peace deal raises rebel doubts as fighting rages
US, Russia to carry out joint air strikes in Syria
Car bomb attacks near Baghdad mall kill 10
Work starts on two new nuclear reactors in Iran
US charity axes Gaza staff amid Hamas link claims
Final bodies recovered from Tel Aviv construction collapse
U.S. Inmates Launch Nationwide Prison Protests
Spillover from Syria as rebel factions announce new offensive

Links From Jihad Watch Site for on September 10-11/16
France: Car packed with gas canisters found outside synagogue during Shabbat services
Iran may have received $33.6 BILLION in secret payments facilitated by Obama administration
Kentucky: Muslima arrested for advocating jihad attacks in US, promoting Islamic State
California: Far-Left prof rips down 9/11 memorial posters at Saddleback College
30 to 40 Islamic State jihadis who aided November 13 Paris jihad massacre are still at large
France: Muslims launch “incredibly violent” attack against two couples because the women were wearing shorts
UK: Police searching Muslim group’s car find meat cleaver with “kaffir” carved on the handle
Islamic State invokes Qur’an to call for blood of infidel youth in parks: “killing them is a form of worship to Allah”
UK: British police may allow burka-uniform
Pakistan: High court orders police to investigate why wine shop in Muslim-majority area hasn’t been closed
Video: Robert Spencer on CBN on the global threat from Iran and other jihad forces

Links From Christian Today Site for on September 10-11/16
Rev Gretta Vosper doesn't believe in God, Jesus or Bible: Church panel says enough is enough
Professor Brian Cox condemns 'toxic' rows between science and religion
Labour was founded by Christians, but has it lost its Christian voice?
Why be a Christian? 3 gifts of Christ to the world
3 things you can do to stop misunderstandings ruining your relationship with God
ISIS on a mission to wipe out Christians, says former Muslim extremist
 

Latest Lebanese Related News published on on September 10-11/16
Report: Hizbullah Says Everyone in Trouble, We Need Solutions Not Discord
Naharnet/September 10/16/Hizbullah stressed on Saturday that it aimed to control the situation when it boycotted the latest cabinet meeting in solidarity with its ally the Free Patriotic Movement, pan-Arab daily al-Hayat reported on Saturday. Hizbullah MP Ali Fayyad said that when Hizbullah decided to boycott the cabinet meeting, “it planned to do so out of keenness to control and address the situation and not to escalate things any further.” “The party is taking advantage of every minute to solve the problem of the cabinet. We still have around ten days before the holidays are over and Prime Minister Tammam Salam returns from a trip abroad. During this period the efforts must be put together in order to find a solution,” said Fayyad. Emphasizing that Hizbullah is keen on the cabinet to resume its normal course of work, Fayyad added: “The rule for us is that the government should resume its work efficiently and in a balanced manner. The dialogue table must also convene so as to help the Lebanese solve their problems.” “Everyone is in trouble. The situation needs solutions not confrontations and escalation,” the MP went on to say. On Thursday, the cabinet convened at the Grand Serail in the presence of 16 ministers and the absence of the FPM, Tashnaq and Hizbullah ministers. The FPM decided to boycott the cabinet meetings over the thorny issue of military and security appointments. Furthermore, it has accused the political parties of failing to conform to the National Pact when they meet in the absence of the FPM ministers. Hizbullah on the other hand boycotted the meeting in solidarity with its Christian ally. The FPM has also decided early this week to boycott the all-party talks which prompted Speaker Nabih Berri to suspend future meetings.

Rahi: Reforms are Necessary but Minimizing Christians' Presence Unacceptable
Naharnet/September 10/16/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi rejected on Saturday the calls for holding a constituent assembly and said that reducing the Christians presence is totally rejected, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Saturday. “We have not implemented the Taef accord yet. What constituent assembly are they talking about?” sources from Bkirki quoted al-Rahi as saying. “Although introducing reforms is necessary, but changing the regime and cutting down the Christian’s presence is unacceptable,” he added. The sources refused that al-Rahi be “involved in this matter,” they said “he was the first to reject the attempts for holding a constituent assembly and has warned against it on several occasions the last was from Dar al-Fatwa a year ago.”They added that the Patriarch believes in “true partnership and refuses attempts of any party or sect to dominate the country.”There are fears in the country that the ongoing political and presidential vacuum might eventually lead to introducing constitutional amendments or holding a constituent assembly that would radically change the current political system that is based on a delicate distribution of power among the country's sects. On Thursday MP Talal Arslan called for holding a constituent assembly and said: “Since 2009 and up until this moment we have asked for holding a constituent assembly. We met with Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in this proposal.” In June 2012, Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah openly called for “a constituent assembly elected by the people.”

Report: Geagea Warns against Attempts to Amend the Constitution
Naharnet/September 10/16/Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea rejected attempts aiming at introducing amendments to Lebanon's constitution and dubbed any endeavor in that direction as a “ leap into the unknown,” al-Joumhouria daily reported on Saturday. “A suggestion to hold a new constituent assembly is totally rejected because any attempt to change the constitution is a leap into the unknown,” said Geagea in an interview to the daily. There are fears in the country that the ongoing political and presidential vacuum might eventually lead to introducing constitutional amendments or holding a constituent assembly that would radically change the current political system that is based on a delicate distribution of power among the country's sects. On Thursday MP Talal Arslan called for a constituent assembly and said: “Since 2009 and up until this moment we have asked for holding a constituent assembly. We met with Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in this proposal.”In June 2012, Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah openly called for “a constituent assembly elected by the people.”Geagea went on to comment on the deteriorating political conditions in Lebanon, he said: “The mask has fallen and the strings of the game are very obvious now. The disruption in the presidential elections and all that followed did not aim to improve the fortunes of General Michel Aoun for the presidency, but it aimed to make us reach where we are today.”

Army Finds Spy Device in Liberated Lebanese Territories
Naharnet/September 10/16/The Lebanese army detected an Israeli spy device in a liberated part of Lebanese land along the occupied Shebaa Farms, the Army Command Orientation directorate said in a statement on Saturday. “On September 9, 2016 an army task force discovered a spy device that belongs to the Israeli enemy inside liberated Lebanese lands near the occupied Shebaa Farms. An army patrol headed to the location and found that the Israeli enemy has already removed the device and moved it inside occupied lands,” said the statement. The Israeli breach is being followed up by the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon, it added. In January, a vulture was captured in the southern town of Bint Jbeil in Lebanon on suspicion of spying for Israel. Images of the vulture shared on social media appeared to show the bird with an Israeli identification ring and location transmitter. Israel and Lebanon are technically at war and the UNIFIL peacekeepers monitor their disputed border.

Army Arrests Two Lebanese for Smuggling Syrians into Lebanon
Naharnet/September 10/16/The Lebanese army arrested two Lebanese citizens on the coastal city of Jbeil, north of Beirut for helping Syrian nationals illegally enter into Lebanon, the Army Command Orientation Directorate said in a statement on Saturday. “An Intelligence bureau patrol arrested two Lebanese citizens in Jbeil, Youssef Shawkat Amer and Ali Qassem al-Ajami, on charges of smuggling six Syrians into Lebanon,” said the statement. It added that the two men were accompanied by the six Syrians when they were caught. The detainees were referred to the related authorities for interrogation, it added.

Kidnappers Set Baalbek Doctor Free
Naharnet/September 10/16/A doctor at Baalbek's hospital of Ibn Sina who was kidnapped on Tuesday was freed Friday at midnight, the state-run National News Agency reported on Saturday. Doctor Saleh al-Shal, a medical director at the hospital, was freed by his kidnappers in Baalbek's town of Douris, NNA added. The doctor said the kidnappers had asked for $500 thousand to free him and that he told them that he does not have money. He was released without a ransom, according to NNA. Contact with al-Shal was lost on Tuesday and reports suspected that he might have been kidnapped in light of the weird circumstances that engulfed his disappearance. NNA said that the doctor was watering the trees in his farm on the Amshki hills that overlook the city of Baalbek. The janitor later saw a pick-up truck drive quickly out of the farm. He ran headlong to check on al-Shal but found no one while the water was still flowing out of the watering hose. Members of his family kicked off a night search that went on until the early hours on Wednesday but failed to find him then. On Thursday his vehicle was found burned-out in the outskirts of Bekaa's town of al-Tibeh.

Lebanese General Security Arrests Culprits in Ksara Bombing
Naharnet/September 10/16/Following intensive investigations, the General Directorate of General Security arrested a cell belonging to a terrorist group linked to the Ksara bombing in the eastern town of Zahle which claimed the life of a woman and wounded many others, the National News Agency reported. As a result of confessions of the detainees, a force of the General Security raided an apartment and seized a device which was used in remotely detonating the bomb. The General Security also seized a Renault rapid vehicle used by cell members to transport the explosive device. Investigations are still ongoing with detainees under the supervision of the concerned general prosecution. Efforts are underway to apprehend the remaining culprits. In August, a bomb blast killed a Syrian woman and wounded at least eight other people. The explosion hit near the mainly Christian town of Zahle. Lebanon has been struck by several deadly bombings since the conflict in neighboring Syria erupted in 2011. In June, eight suicide bombers, some of them linked to the Islamic State jihadist group, attacked Al-Qaa village near the Syrian border, killing five civilians.

Rahi hopes politicians would find solution to current paralysis
Sat 10 Sep 2016/NNA - Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Bshara Butros al-Rahi hoped, on Saturday, that politicians would find a solution to the country's paralysis, saying that "politicians should put an end to the current stagnation that could lead to total collapse."Crowning the first day of his parish visit to the villages of the Caza of Jbeil, the Patriarch presided over a Mass service at St. Elie Cathedral in Kartaba."I am delighted to conclude the first day of our pastoral visit to this region, which included al-Kalaa, Yanouh, Mughairy and Abboud, and here we are finally in the parish of our dear Kartaba. I renew my greetings of love for the sons and daughters of these parishes, its priests and all its citizens, deputies and heads municipalities and mukhtars, organizations and apostolic committees. We are in a region that carries precious history of our Maronite Church and Lebanese heritage...It is your heritage to preserve and protect with devotion and sincerity," said al-Rahi. "Christians have never been known to live in a state of confinement or ghetto, but are rather present everywhere, carrying to people's cultures the culture yeast of the Gospel, the culture of brotherhood, love and peace, a culture of truth, freedom and justice, the culture of human dignity and the value of human life and its sanctity, a culture of equal coexistence with the rest of their fellow citizens, in a spirit of responsibility for the life of their countries and their institutions and Constitutions...This is what they have achieved, par excellence, in Lebanon throughout a long historical march," added al-Rahi. "Thanks to these efforts, Lebanon was distinct from other countries in the region, with a democratic political system based on the adoption of public freedom and human rights charter, and religious and cultural pluralism within national unity...but every time efforts were scattered, the effect was weakened and the political system failed, along with the economy and the remaining facets of social life. This is what we are witnessing today, unfortunately," the Patriarch went on. He concluded by saying: "We cannot hear the prayers of Christ for the unity of believers without our commitment to building this unity in both the vertical and horizontal dimensions, and witness to the world that God's love for us is what really unites us."

Abou Faour: Vast majority of politicians conspire against public education
Sat 10 Sep 2016/NNA - Health Minister, Wael Abou Faour, addressed a crowd of students who passed their officials exams in a ceremony in Rashayya, saluting the hard work of public educators and pointing a finger of blame at a large number of politicians who are conspiring against public schools and universities in the name of the private sector. The ceremony held in Rashayya was dedicated to students of public schools in said area. "Time has not let us, Arabs, down. We have let ourselves down with education. We failed the test of education, and consequently the test of history, which led us to where we are now among the nations of the world," said Abou Faour, "the budget of the Israeli enemy for education is 10% of the GDP. So, what is the education budget in Lebanon and Arab states, at a time when illiteracy levels in certain Arab states reach 35%?"The Minister confirmed that there was no plan for reforming public education in Lebanon, and the state had no intention to support it on any level. "The political authority in Lebanon has a hidden intent to ...strike at public education, which has not failed, but was made to purposely fail...in favour of privatization." Abou Faour contended that he had nothing against private schools and universities, but that it was the duty of the state to spend its money on public education first. On a more political level, the Minister said that the country was passing through a political crisis that could only be solved by the return of all components to the Cabinet. "We have to reunite the country through national dialogue, which should be relaunched."He described the current paralysis in national dialogue as a "fatal blow to hope" in a possible consensus among Lebanese.

Finance Minister: We search for means of putting dialogue back on right path
Sat 10 Sep 2016/NNA - A graduation ceremony in the town of Deir Qanoun was an occasion for Finance Minister, Ali Hassan Khalil- who sponsored said ceremony- to address current political issues, stating that the only acceptable language was that of true partnership based on the national pact. The Minister told the students that the educational system must adopt national constants and promote coexistence. Similarly, politicians, despite their differences, should always agree on national constants. "It is legitimate for politicians to be divided on certain issues; but, the basic matters that form the backbone of our pact must not be toyed with."Hassan Khalil asserted his commitment to the national pact and a united Lebanon that accommodated all Lebanese. "Our hearts remain open for everyone as we search for solutions, starting with putting the national dialogue back on track based on new rules and conditions, as expressed by House Speaker Nabih Berri."

Youth group protests against beach reclamation project in KfarAabida: The beach represents the region's identity, and any change will thus destroy it!
Sat 10 Sep 2016/NNA - A group of youngsters from the towns of Kfar-Aabida region under the name of "Save Kkfar-Aabida" organized a move, on Saturday, in protest against a draft decree approved by the Council of Ministers on August 25, 2016, which authorizes the Development of Lebanese Shores Company to make use of maritime public property in the aforementioned region. A large number of environmental and offshore marine associations, sports clubs and fishermen cooperatives, as well as environmental activists and experts, along with civil society organizations and hundreds of people who visit the shores of Kfar-Aabida took part in the protest move. Speaking on behalf of participants, Environmental Activist Clara Khoury said: "We totally reject this project, especially that there has been no involvement of public opinion, nor has it been examined from the environmental aspect by the Ministry of Environment or any other concerned body." "We also reject any operations on maritime public lands, such as bridging the sea or any construction on the rocks and water, etc," added Khoury. "We gather here today, on these maritime properties, which are considered public property owned by all citizens, in order to draw attention to the rare presence of these rocks along the Mediterranean seashores, enjoying a vital role in biodiversity and the sustainability of fisheries and marine resources," Khoury went on. She stressed that "any reclamation in the region would change the path of ocean currents, and hence, hurt fish and marine wealth along this beach and nearby beaches.""Ultimately, this beach is one of the rare beaches that receives guests from all areas, allowing them the free chance to practice any kind of marine hobby, from diving to surfing, fishing and many others," she added. "We shall continue with our move right till the end, and we will use our right to resort to justice, if need be, until our demands are met," Khoury underscored.

Geagea holds meeting with Kenaan in Mehrab
Sat 10 Sep 2016/NNA - Head of the Lebanese Forces (LF), Samir Geagea, is currently meeting at his Mehrab residence with MP Ibrahim Kenaan, delegated by MP Michel Aoun. The meeting is also attended by head of media and communication in the LF, Melhem Riachi.

Marouni: Kataeb Party shall work to abolish Article 522 of the Criminal Law to ensure justice for women!
Sat 10 Sep 2016/NNA - MP Elie Marouni said, on Saturday, that the "Kataeb Party supports full equality between men and women and is one of the greatest defenders of their rights," adding that "the Party shall work to abolish Article 522 of the Criminal Law in order to ensure justice for women."Speaking at a press conference held at the Party's bureau in Zahle, Marouni touched on the feedback heaved by social media networks regarding his recent statement about the issue of rape during a round table meeting organized by the Democratic Women's Gathering in Zouk Mikael. In this context, Marouni enumerated his Party's various undertaken initiatives to improve the situation of women by eliminating all forms of legal texts that show discrimination against them. "The Party will continue its struggle to cancel all laws unfavorable to women, particularly Article 522 of the Criminal Law which eliminates punishment against the rapist if he marries his victim," said Marouni. He concluded by stressing that "Kataeb considers rape as one of the worst crimes against humanity," adding that "our Party refuses any form of accusation directed against the victim!"
 

Lebanon’s political conundrum continuesاستمرارية اللغز اللبناني
Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf News/September 10/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/09/10/joseph-a-kechichiangulf-news-lebanons-political-conundrum-continues%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%B2-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86/
Cabinet meet fails to reach decisions while a dejected Aoun denies settlement claim
Beirut: Notwithstanding a month-long huffing and puffing performance, the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) failed to force a postponement of the Thursday’s cabinet meeting, though the 16 ministers (out of 24) that attended formed a quorum. Hezbollah ministers were absent as they joined the FPM, the Marada official, and the sole Armenian Tashnag Party representative, along with two resigned ministers, Alain Hakim (Economy) and Ashraf Rifi (Justice Minister), which further weakened Prime Minister Tammam Salam’s government.
The issue of the presidency, which hangs like an albatross around the necks of Lebanese elites, remained at the heart of the dispute and led to a fresh conundrum as Jibran Bassil, candidate Michel Aoun’s son-in-law and minister of foreign affairs, launched what is now a full-fledged constitutional crisis.
Bassil withdrew from the National Dialogue earlier in the week and pledged to no longer attend cabinet meetings, allegedly because Salam — a paragon of compromise that his late father, Sa‘ib Salam, introduced through his “la ghalib la maghlub” [no victor, no vanquished] formula — neglected the National Charter that upholds parity between Christians and Muslims.
In addition to the deadlocked presidency, which a dejected Aoun seems unable to abandon for reasons that have to do with pride, several lawmakers have called for an end to futile dialogue sessions and repetitive meetings that achieved nothing. Alain Hakim and Ashraf Rifi have both invited the prime minister to tender his resignation and transform the cabinet into a caretaker institution since it was no longer able to function as the constitution intended.
Hakim warned that “the country is on the verge of collapse economically, politically and socially,” as he wondered about the government’s credibility. “Resigning is more honourable than this farce,” he tweeted.
For now, the latest conundrum promised to rekindle dormant controversies, including a reassessment of the 1943 National Pact and the 1989 Taif Accords that ended the 1975-1990 civil war. On Thursday, the head of the mostly Druze Lebanese Democratic Party, Talal Arslan, requested a new constitutional convention that, to put it mildly, shook the political establishment to its very core. Any step that overlooks Taif is bound to be highly contentious in this multi-ethnic and multi-religious society that has functioned for decades on a delicate balance-of-power formula.
Ironically, while the FPM’s latest boycott of cabinet meetings was initially linked to the thorny issue of military and security appointments, it has now opened a Pandora’s box. That may plunge Lebanon into the unknown.
In fact, not only has Defence Minister Samir Moqbel irritated the FPM’s Bassil when he postponed the retirement of Higher Defence Council chief Major-General Mohammad Khair, but he also dismissed his, Bassil’s, failure to agree on a new candidate from among the three proposed by Moqbel. In fact, the FPM opposes term extensions for all senior officers, including Army Commander Jean Qahwaji, whose mandate ends on September 30. Moqbel pledged to extend Qahwaji’s term though Bassil is now playing on a “political system crisis” because, he maintains, “the other parties are not heeding the FPM’s demands regarding Muslim-Christian partnership”.
Ironically, a rumour circulated on social media channels throughout Thursday evening, which the FPM quickly denied, that alleged senior party figures — meaning Aoun — proposed a settlement involving a new extension for Qahwaji. Addressing Salam on Friday, Bassil admonished the premier, “the son of late Sa‘ib Salam, [who] must pay great attention when he says that the government is respecting the National Pact when it convenes in the presence of ministers representing only six per cent of a main component of the country (Christians)”. Tammam Salam did not respond and was unlikely to do so if for no other reason than to avoid a shouting match. The illustration nevertheless highlighted Bassil’s methods to chastise at will.
More from Lebanon

Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on on September 10-11/16
US, Russia announce Syria truce plan
By AFP, Geneva Saturday, 10 September 2016/The United State and Russia on Friday agreed a plan to impose a ceasefire in the Syrian civil war and lay the foundation of a peace process, US Secretary of State John Kerry said. Standing by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov after a day of marathon talks in Geneva, Kerry said he believed the plan would lead to talks to “stop the conflict”. “Today, the United States and Russia are announcing a plan which we hope will reduce violence, ease suffering and resume movement towards a negotiated peace and a political transition in Syria,” Kerry said. “The United States is going the extra mile here because we believe Russia and my colleague have the capability to press the Assad regime to stop this conflict and come to the table and make peace,” he said. Kerry said that the truce would come into force on Monday, the first day of the Muslim holiday of Eid and that if it lasted a week the United States would begin cooperation with Russian forces to target the Nusra Front and ISIS.

IS Bombings near Baghdad Mall Kill at Least 13 People
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 10/16/Two bomb blasts outside a shopping mall in central Baghdad claimed by the Islamic State group killed at least 13 people, security and medical officials said on Saturday. The bombings were the latest in a series of deadly attacks at Baghdad shopping centres this year that have been claimed by IS, including one that killed more than 300 people in early July. The jihadist group issued an online statement on the attack, saying it targeted Shiites and was carried out by two Iraqi suicide bombers, one of whom wore an explosive belt and another who drove an explosives-rigged vehicle. IS and other Sunni extremists consider Shiite Muslims to be heretics, and frequently target them in bombings. The statement said the bomber who drove the explosives-rigged vehicle was from Fallujah, a city west of Baghdad that was retaken from IS in late June. The blasts, which hit just before midnight (2100 GMT) Friday, shattered windows at the multi-storey Nakheel Mall on Palestine Street in the city centre, and damaged a fence surrounding it. As people worked to clean up the rubble outside on Saturday, a private security company guarding the mall sought to prevent images being taken, seizing the cameras of two photographers and a video journalist. The cameras were eventually returned, but video footage shot by an AFP photographer was deleted by the firm. Nakheel Mall opened last year and shops were likely to have remained open late ahead of the Muslim feast of Eid al-Adha which begins on Monday. The mall also houses one of the city's most popular cinemas. IS claims most major attacks in Baghdad, including some carried out at shopping centres earlier in the year. On Tuesday, a car bomb near a hospital killed at least seven people in Baghdad's Karrada district -- an area still reeling from a July 3 suicide bombing that set nearby shopping centres ablaze and left more than 300 people dead. IS claimed the Karrada blasts, as well as an attack involving gunmen and a car bomb that killed at least 12 people near another Baghdad mall in January. IS has suffered a string of military defeats over the past year and the caliphate it proclaimed in June 2014 is rapidly shrinking. As the jihadist organisation loses territory across Iraq, officials have warned that it may step up revenge attacks against civilians in Baghdad and other cities.

Syria Opposition Cautiously Welcomes U.S.-Russia Truce Deal
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 10/16/A Syrian opposition umbrella group said on Saturday it welcomed a complex truce deal brokered by Moscow and Washington provided it was honored by the regime. "We hope this will be the beginning of the end of the civilians' ordeal," leading High Negotiations Committee member Bassma Kodmani said. "We welcome the deal if it is going to be enforced," she told the BBC, and said the HNC was "absolutely in favor" of a cessation of hostilities. In comments to Agence France Presse, she said the HNC "cautiously welcomed" the agreement. US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the truce, reached in Geneva late Friday, would come into force on Monday, the first day of the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha. The two powers back opposing sides in the conflict, with Moscow supporting the regime of President Bashar Assad and Washington backing a coalition of rebel groups it regards as moderate. But if Russia is able to pressure Assad to respect the ceasefire for a week, Moscow and Washington will set up a joint coordination unit and begin joint air strikes against agreed "terrorist" targets. The two governments regard both the Islamic State group and its jihadist rival, former al-Qaida affiliate the Fateh al-Sham Front, as "terrorist" organisations and both are excluded from the ceasefire plan. But Islamist rebel groups have been closely allied with Fateh al-Sham in fighting pro-government forces in northern Syria, drawing repeated rebukes from Moscow. Kodmani said the rebels would break ranks with the jihadists if the truce deal held. "The moderate groups will reorganize and distance themselves from the radical groups. We will do our part," she said.

Turkey Welcomes Russia-U.S. Syria Truce Plan
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 10/16/Turkey, which has sent dozens of tanks and hundreds of troops into Syria in an unprecedented incursion, on Saturday welcomed a deal agreed by the United States and Russia for a ceasefire in its conflict-torn neighbor. "We welcome the agreement," the foreign ministry said in a statement, saying it was essential that fighting was halted across Syria and humanitarian aid reaches those in need "from the first day" of the ceasefire on the Islamic Eid al-Adha holiday starting Monday. The statement said that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had "closely followed" the process to secure the ceasefire, following talks with Russian and U.S. counterparts Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama on the sidelines of the G20 in China. It said Turkey was already making preparations for the delivery of humanitarian aid to Turkey's northern Aleppo province and would make efforts to "ensure the effective implementation" of the ceasefire. Turkey and Russia have been on opposing sides of the conflict, with Ankara backing the opposition seeking to oust President Bashar al-Assad and Moscow his key international supporter. But there have been signs of greater harmony between Ankara and Moscow on Syria since a June deal to normalise their own ties following the crisis over the shooting down of a Russian war plane. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu spoke to Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov late Friday ahead of the announcement of the deal, both sides said. "They expressed mutual understanding of the importance of all parties concerned complying with the cessation of hostilities and the resumption of the inter-Syrian negotiation process," the Russian foreign ministry said. The Russia-U.S. agreement came as Turkey presses on with its Operation Euphrates Shield in Syria, which is aimed at pushing both Islamic State (IS) jihadists and Kurdish militia out of the Syrian border area. Lavrov said the United States and Russia have agreed to carry out joint air strikes against "terrorists" in Syria if the ceasefire holds for a week. Washington has applauded Turkey's actions against IS but is wary of its assault on the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) militia, which has been a U.S. ally in the fight against the jihadists.

US-Russian Syria peace deal raises rebel doubts as fighting rages
By Reuters, Amman/Geneva Saturday, 10 September 2016/The United States and Russia hailed a breakthrough deal early on Saturday to put Syria’s peace process back on track, though the war-torn country’s rebels said they doubted it would hold and violence raged on in Aleppo. The agreement reached by the powers backing opposing sides in the conflict promised a nationwide truce effective from sundown on Monday, improved humanitarian aid access and joint military targeting of banned Islamist groups. But only hours after it was announced, Syria’s army attacked rebel-held areas in the northern city of Aleppo, both sides said, as the military pushed to maximize gains before the ceasefire deadline. Insurgents said they were planning a counter-offensive. “The fighting is flaring on all the fronts of southern Aleppo but the clashes in Amiryah are the heaviest,” Captain Abdul Salam Abdul Razak, the military spokesman of the rebel Nour al-Din al Zinki Brigades said. Syria’s 5-year civil war has killed thousands in Aleppo, the main focus of clashes between insurgents, including Western-backed rebels, and pro-government forces backed by Russia and Iran. US Secretary of State John Kerry called on all sides to respect the deal, which was reached after marathon talks in Geneva and several failed attempts to hammer out the details in recent weeks. “This requires halting all attacks, including aerial bombardments, and any attempts to gain additional territory at the expense of the parties to the cessation. It requires unimpeded and sustained humanitarian access to all of the besieged and hard-to-reach areas including Aleppo,” he said. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that despite continuing mistrust, the two sides had developed five documents that would enable coordination of the fight against terrorism and a revival of Syria’s failed truce in an enhanced form. Both sides agreed not to release the documents publicly. “This all creates the necessary conditions for resumption of the political process, which has been stalling for a long time,” Lavrov told a news conference.
Doubts
Previous efforts to forge agreements to stop the fighting and deliver humanitarian aid to besieged communities in Syria have crumbled within weeks, with the United States accusing Assad’s forces of attacking opposition groups and civilians. Kerry said the “bedrock” of the new deal was an agreement that the Syrian government would not fly combat missions in an agreed area on the pretext of hunting fighters from the banned Nusra Front, an Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. Under the agreement, Russian-backed government forces and opposition groups, supported by the United States and Gulf States, would halt fighting for a while as a confidence building measure. If the truce holds from Monday, Russia and the United States will begin seven days of preparatory work to set up a “joint implementation center”, where they will share information to delineate territory controlled by Nusra and opposition groups. Both warring sides would pull back from the strategic Castello Road in Aleppo to create a demilitarized zone, while opposition and government groups would both have to provide safe and unhindered access via Ramouseh in the south of the city. Syria’s moderate Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels said on Saturday they saw were skeptical the deal would be enforced as Damascus and Moscow had continued bombing their areas under earlier truces. Razak, from the rebel Nour al-Din al Zinki Brigades, said they were studying the deal but it appeared it would only give the Syrian army a chance to gather forces and pour more Iranian-backed militias into the main battles raging in Aleppo. The UK based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said jets believed to be either Syrian or Russian also hit rebel-held towns in the northern Aleppo countryside including Anadan and Hreitan along important insurgent supply routes. The monitor confirmed reports by residents and activists in rebel-held eastern Aleppo who said Syrian army helicopters dropped barrel bombs on residential civilian areas in several districts with scores injured and at least four civilians killed. Jets believed to be Russian also hit several areas in rebel held Idlib city in northwestern Syria, targeting a busy market with reports of several dead and injured, residents and the monitor said.

US, Russia to carry out joint air strikes in Syria
AFP, Geneva Saturday, 10 September 2016/The United States and Russia have agreed to carry out joint air strikes in Syria if a newly agreed ceasefire holds for a week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Friday. “We will jointly agree on strikes against terrorists to be carried out by the Russian and American air forces. We have agreed on the zones in which these strikes will be carried out,” said Lavrov. The truce, agreed after a day of marathon talks in Geneva between Lavrov and his US counterpart John Kerry, will come into force on Monday, the first day of Eid al-Adha. It will be followed by coordinated strikes against Al Nusra jihadist rebels and ISIS – if it holds for a week, Lavrov said. “Only the Russian and American air forces will work in these zones,” Lavrov said. The Americans and their allies have been insisting that Syrian regime forces, accused of widespread civilian massacres, must stand down. Kerry said he believed the plan would lead to talks to “stop the conflict”, which has raged for more than five years, killing more than 290,000 and displacing millions.

Car bomb attacks near Baghdad mall kill 10
AFP, Baghdad Saturday, 10 September 2016/Two car bomb blasts outside a shopping mall in central Baghdad late Friday killed at least 10 people and wounded another 25, police and medical sources said. One explosion came from a parked car and the other was caused by an explosives-laden vehicle driven by a suicide bomber outside the Nakheel mall, a police colonel said.

Work starts on two new nuclear reactors in Iran
AFP, Tehran Saturday, 10 September 2016/Russian and Iranian firms began work on Saturday on two additional reactors at Iran’s nuclear power plant on the Gulf coast at Bushehr, the project manager said. The plant has been a bone of contention with the Gulf countries, even after a deal limiting its nuclear ambitions was signed with major powers in July last year. Project manager Mahmoud Jafari said that construction of the two 1,000 MW reactors, which is being carried out jointly with an Iranian firm, would take a decade and cost up to $10 billion. “When these two units become operational, 11 million barrels of oil will be saved per year and emission of 7 million tons of greenhouse gas will be avoided,” he said. Some 8,000 workers are involved in the project, which is being led by Russia’s Rosatom with Iran’s Nuclear Power Production and Development Company. “The construction of the first reactor proved that Russia always fulfils its obligations towards foreign partners, regardless of the changes in the world’s political climate,” Rosatom chief Sergei Kirienko said as the foundation stone was laid in Bushehr. He said the new reactors marked “a serious step towards strengthening Russia’s position in the international peaceful nuclear technology market,” in comments reported by Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency. A third of the equipment will be locally sourced, Iran’s state broadcaster reported. The Islamic republic is seeking to reduce its reliance on oil and gas with 20 nuclear facilities planned over the coming years, including nine being built with Russian firms. Russia built the existing 1,000 megawatt reactor at Bushehr that came online in September 2011 and reached full capacity the following year. In November 2014, it signed a “cooperation contract” to help build the two new reactors at Bushehr, along with plans to eventually construct nine more reactors across Iran. Two of those may be built at Bushehr, which would take the total to five. The July 2015 deal Iran signed with six major powers including Russia placed restrictions on the sort of nuclear reactor it could develop and its production of nuclear fuel. But it did not require Iran to halt its use of nuclear energy for power generation.

US charity axes Gaza staff amid Hamas link claims
AFP, Gaza City Saturday, 10 September 2016/World Vision has cancelled the contracts of 120 Palestinian employees in Gaza, staff told AFP Friday, amid Israeli allegations that the NGO’s Gaza head diverted millions to Hamas. “They informed 120 employees from World Vision in Gaza they were officially cancelling their contracts and stopping all their projects in the enclave,” said an employee who declined to be identified. “The head of the NGO in Palestine and a number of foreign staff met on August 9 with Palestinian employees in the Gaza office and gave them documents to sign which they did,” he said.
AFP saw a copy of the document which said that World Vision “is facing a major crisis that has affected the international NGO, including the source of its funding, and due to this crisis all our activities have been suspended in Gaza.”A senior World Vision source confirmed the redundancies. Senior employees will be kept on partial salaries, the source said. The employee who spoke to AFP said that World Vision promised to take back the staff once the crisis is resolved. Last month, Israel charged the Gaza head of the US-based Christian charity, Mohammed al-Halabi, with diverting millions of dollars of both materials and cash to Hamas, including its armed wing. An official from the Shin Bet security service said it amounted to over $7 million a year, with up to 60 percent of the of the NGO’s operating costs allegedly siphoned off. The NGO has disputed the allegations saying it has seen no evidence presented by Israel. It said in a statement the “cumulative operating budget in Gaza for the past 10 years was approximately $22.5 million, which makes the alleged amount of up to $50 million being diverted hard to reconcile.”The court case is to be held in secret, with Halabi’s lawyer saying discussing details could mean jail. Israel argues the secrecy is necessary for security reasons.

Final bodies recovered from Tel Aviv construction collapse
By The Associated Press, Jerusalem Saturday, 10 September 2016/The Israeli military says it has recovered the final three bodies buried beneath the rubble of a construction site collapse in Tel Aviv, setting the final death toll from the incident at six. Rescue teams led by the military’s Home Front Command have been searching for five days for survivors inside the wreckage of the multilevel parking garage that collapsed. The military confirmed Saturday that all missing bodies had now been accounted for from a collapse that left a large crater in the ground. More than 20 people were wounded in the accident, which is under investigation. The Home Front Command is often sent around the world to help locate victims from earthquakes, tsunamis and other natural disasters. The garage collapsed in an upscale commercial district of northern Tel Aviv.

U.S. Inmates Launch Nationwide Prison Protests
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/September 10/16/Prisoners throughout the United States went on strike Friday, answering social media calls to protest prison living conditions in a mobilization whose magnitude remains difficult to assess. Two Florida prisons -- Gulf Correctional and Mayo Correctional -- were placed on lockdown following "disturbances," according to the Miami Herald newspaper. Late Wednesday at Holmes Correctional in northwestern Florida, a revolt involving more than 400 inmates preceded the nationwide strike. The Florida Department of Corrections called it a "major disturbance involving several hundred inmates housed in multiple dorms." The state's corrections department announced Friday the cancellation of weekend visits at the Holmes facility and the Gulf Correctional Institution Annex, without providing details. Elsewhere in the U.S., activist groups took to social media and called for peaceful protests to improve the lives and working conditions of prisoners. "They are participating in work stoppages, hunger strikes and sit-ins in protest of long-term isolation, inadequate health care, overcrowding, violent attacks and slave labor," the Incarcerated Workers Organizing Committee member Phillip Ruiz told the Miami Herald. His group is among several leading the protest movement. Friday's events occurred on the anniversary of the historic September 9, 1971 rebellion in which inmates took over and shut down upstate New York's Attica prison, a bloody uprising that prompted four days of intense negotiations. According to the Free Alabama Movement group, prisoners were also striking in Alabama, Texas and South Carolina facilities. The U.S. prison population has hit record levels, with more than 2.2 million individuals behind bars, including the mentally ill and petty criminals.
 

Spillover from Syria as rebel factions announce new offensive
Yoav Zitun, Roi Kaiis, Ahiya Raved|/Ynetnews/September 10/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/09/10/ynetnews-spillover-from-syria-as-rebel-factions-announce-new-offensive/
Once again, spillover has occured from the Syrian civil war as an artillery shell exploded in the northern Golan Heights; spillover comes as Syrian rebels announce major operation in Qunietra border region; the Israeli Air Force has returned fire and hit a Syrian artillery position.
An explosion was heard Saturday afternoon in the northern Golan Heights. No damage or injuries were reported. The explosion is believed to be the result of spillover from the civil war in Syria.
The 366th Armored Division, responsible for the Golan Heights, is still unsure as to whether or not the explosion was caused by a rocket or a mortar. This is the third time in a week that fighting has spilled over into Israel from the fighting in Syria.
The Israeli Air Force attacked a Syrian artillery position in response to the spillover. The IDF said that the army views the Syrian military as responsible for anything emanating from its territory, and will not tolerate any attempts to violate Israeli sovereignty or threaten Israel's citizens.
Mortar fire landed deep inside Israel earlier in the week, and the IDF retaliated by hitting Syrian positions several hours later. The artillery round in that instance landed 10 kilometers inside of Israeli territory.
Several rebel units which are operating on the border with Israel announced that they had begun a massive operation against the Assad regime, its supporters, and its allies on Saturday. Amongst the groups included in this declaration are Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, which was formerly al-Qaida in Syria. Meanwhile, Hezbollah claimed on Saturday that the Syrian Army stopped a rebel attack on Syrian position north of the Syrian border town of Qunietra, and that the rebels sustained large numbers of killed and wounded.
Hezbollah also noted that the rebels fired a rocket towards the Syrian Druze town of Hader on the Syrian side of the border, yet the rocket missed.

Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on on September 10-11/16

Germany: Beginning of the End of the Merkel Era?
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/September 10/16
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8899/germany-merkel-era

The anti-immigration party Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged ahead of Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in elections in her home state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania.
The election was widely seen as a referendum on Merkel's open-door migration policy and her decision to allow more than one million migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East to enter Germany in 2015.
Merkel rejected any course correction on migration policy: "I am very unsatisfied with the outcome of the election. Obviously it has something to do with the refugee question. I think the decisions that were made were correct." She went on to blame German voters for failing to appreciate her government's "problem-solving abilities".
Many of the AfD's positions were once held, but later abandoned, by the Merkel's CDU.
A September 1 poll showed Merkel's popularity rating has plunged to 45%, a five-year low. More than half (51%) of those surveyed said it would "not be good" if Merkel ran for another term in 2017.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel suffered a major blow on September 4 when the anti-immigration party Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged ahead of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in elections in her home state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania.
With 20.8% of the vote, the AfD came in second place behind the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) (30.6%). Merkel's CDU came in third place, with 19% of the vote, the worst result it has ever had in Meck-Pomm, as the state is called for short.
The election in Meck-Pomm was widely seen as a referendum on Merkel's open-door migration policy and her decision to allow more than one million migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East to enter Germany in 2015. The migrant influx has resulted in a notable increase in crime in the country. The growing sense of insecurity has been exacerbated by a series of attacks this summer by Muslim migrants in which ten people were killed and dozens more were injured.
The CDU debacle in Meck-Pomm yields two main conclusions: 1) Merkel's hopes of winning — or even running — for a fourth term in general elections in 2017 are now in doubt; and 2) the AfD is a force to be reckoned with in German politics. It can longer be simply dismissed as a "fringe party."
Observers from across the political spectrum seem to agree that the election in Meck-Pomm marks a turning point for Merkel, who has been head of the CDU since 2000 and chancellor since November 2005. Some say her political career may effectively be over if the CDU suffers heavy losses to the AfD in state elections in Berlin on September 18.
"This was a dark day for Merkel," said Thomas Jaeger, a political scientist at the University of Cologne. "Everyone knows she lost this election. Her district in parliament is there, she campaigned there, and refugees are her issue."
The CDU's secretary general, Peter Tauber, agreed: "The strong performance of AfD is bitter for many, for everyone in our party. A sizeable number of people wanted to voice their displeasure and to protest. And we saw that particularly in discussions about refugees."
The leader of the AfD, Frauke Petry, said: "This is a blow for Merkel, not only in Berlin but also in her home state. The voters made a clear statement against Merkel's disastrous immigration policies. This put her in her place."
German Chancellor Angela Merkel (left) suffered a major blow on September 4 when the anti-immigration party Alternative for Germany, led by Frauke Petry (right), surged ahead of her Christian Democratic Union in elections in her home state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania.
Local AfD leader Leif-Erik Holm told supporters: "We are writing history. Perhaps this is the beginning of the end of Angela Merkel's chancellorship. This must be our goal."
Gero Neugebauer, a professor of political scientist at Berlin's Free University, said:
"People will see this defeat as the start of the 'Kanzlerdämmerung' (twilight of the chancellor). If a lot of CDU members start seeing this defeat as Merkel's fault, and members of parliament start seeing her as a danger for the party and their own jobs next year, the whole situation could escalate out of control. If the AfD defeats the CDU again in Berlin in two weeks, things could get ugly fast."
In an interview with Der Spiegel, Ralf Stegner, the vice president of the SPD, said the CDU was in a "state of panic" over the rise of the AfD and that Merkel has become a liability to her party:
"Merkel has clearly passed her zenith. It is a disaster for her that the CDU has fallen to third place with under 20% in her own state. This is a serious crisis for the CDU and it bears the names of Merkel and Seehofer. Some people now believe that Merkel no longer leads the debate with Seehofer about her 2017 candidacy. Throughout its history, the CDU has been merciless to its chancellors if there was the impression that the party was facing a massive loss of votes."
Stegner was referring to an August 27 report by Der Spiegel which said that Merkel has postponed an announcement about her candidacy due to opposition from the CDU's Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), which has been increasingly vocal in its criticism of her migration policy:
"Angela Merkel will delay until the spring of 2017 her decision whether to run for another term as chancellor of the CDU in the general election next year. The delay was necessary because only then will CSU chief Horst Seehofer decide whether his party will support Merkel again, according to CDU insiders. This is the second time that Merkel has had to postpone the announcement of her plans.
"Actually, her decision should have been announced a long time ago. The original plan was that Merkel would declare her intentions as early as last spring. But then the refugee crisis and the fierce dispute with the CSU got in the way. The Chancellor decided to wait until this fall.
"This time the delay is more problematic for Merkel. In December, the CDU party congress takes place in Essen, where Merkel wants to be elected as party chairman for another two years.
"But she can only be party chairman if she is a candidate in the general election. The party congress should send a signal that the CDU fully supports the Chancellor. This will not work if the party does not know if Merkel wants to continue.
"From Merkel's perspective, the alternative would be more risky: If she announces her candidacy for chancellor without Seehofer's support, it could hurt her politically."
In a September 6 interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung, CSU leader Horst Seehofer, said the "disastrous" election outcome in Meck-Pomm was a direct consequence Merkel's migration policy. He added that Merkel had ignored "multiple prompts for a course correction" and that her refusal to budge threatens the future of the CDU. "Confidence in the government is dwindling rapidly," he warned. "People do not understand how policy is made in Germany."
CSU Secretary General Andreas Scheuer reiterated the call for Merkel to change course: "We need a cap on refugees, faster deportations and better integration."
Bavarian Finance Minister Markus Söder agreed: "The result must be a wake-up call for the CDU. The mood of the people can no longer be ignored. A change of course is needed in Berlin."
Merkel remains defiant. A day after the debacle in Meck-Pomm, Merkel rejected any course correction on migration policy:
"I am very unsatisfied with the outcome of the election. Obviously it has something to do with the refugee question. I think the decisions that were made were correct." She went on to blame German voters for failing to appreciate her government's "problem-solving abilities" (Lösungskompetenz).
On September 7, in a fiery address to the German parliament, Merkel said the AfD's anti-immigration stance posed a threat to Germany. "All of us should realize the AfD is a challenge not only for the Christian Democrats... they are a challenge for everyone in this house." She may also have indicated that she intends to seek another term as chancellor when she said: "There is still a lot of work to be done."
Alternative for Germany (AfD)
In more ways than one, Angela Merkel is directly responsible for the rise of the AfD. In her more than ten years as chancellor, she has moved the CDU to the left on so many key issues that the party is no longer conservative in any meaningful sense of the word.
Under Merkel, the CDU's policies on nuclear energy have become essentially identical to those of the Green Party. Merkel has also adopted many of the social policies of the SPD. In terms the open-door migration policy, the CDU's position is virtually indistinguishable from both the SPD and the Greens. This has created an opening for the AfD.
Launched in 2013, the AfD is now present in nine of Germany's 16 state parliaments. It is poised to enter the federal parliament for the first time in 2017. According to an Insa poll cited by Bild on September 5, if the national election were held today, the AfD would win 15% of the vote, making it the third-largest party in Germany.
The Insa poll also found that in the Meck-Pomm election, the AfD siphoned off more than 55,000 votes from other parties. More than 22,000 CDU voters cast their ballots for the AfD; 15,000 SPD voters voted for the AfD; and more than 22,000 voters affiliated with other parties gave their votes to the AfD.
The party was originally founded to protest the German government's handling of the eurozone crisis. Its founding manifesto stated:
"The Federal Republic of Germany is facing the most serious crisis in its history. The euro currency area has proved to be unworkable. Southern European countries are sliding into poverty under the competitive pressure of the euro. Entire states are on the verge of default.
"Hundreds of billions of euros have already been pledged by the federal government. An end to this policy is not in sight. This is excessive and irresponsible. We, our children and our grandchildren will have to pay for this with taxes, stagnation and inflation. At the same time, this is eroding our democracy. In this situation, the CDU, CSU, SPD, FDP and the Greens know only one answer: Keep it up!"
In April 2013, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung revealed that CDU insiders viewed the rise of the AfD as "the end of Merkel's chancellorship." A strategy was set in place to conduct opposition research and paint the AfD as a "national conservative" party driven by proponents of "market radicalism."
The AfD — similar in many ways to the upstart Tea Party movement in the United States — has suffered self-inflicted wounds as a result of political infighting and internal power struggles. Establishment politicians and the mainstream media have repeatedly seized on outrageous comments made by some within the party to portray it as a "far right" party that poses a threat to German values.
In an interview with the Guardian, Frauke Petry, the AfD leader, said the party has sometimes felt forced to use outspoken language to get its message across. She said:
"Well, sometimes, I don't deny, we think we have to use provocative arguments in order to be heard. Because we tried very hard at the beginning of 2013 to be heard with lots of very sensible thinking and arguments, and we simply couldn't get through to anyone. So what do you do? You put forward a provocative argument, and sometimes you are given the chance to explain what you meant. I know it's a difficult choice to make but sometimes, for us, it feels like the only way."
Petry also said the AfD is not opposed to "real refugees," but it is against the hundreds of thousands of economic migrants who are posing as refugees. "There is enough space for refugees in Germany, but the problem is that we don't distinguish anymore between migrants and asylum seekers," she said.
A comprehensive party manifesto published in May 2016 called for: limited government; term limits; campaign finance reform; reducing the power of political parties; direct elections for chancellor; devolving power to federal states; a referendum on the euro; reforming the United Nations; a strong military based on the NATO alliance; reintroducing conscription; stronger police enforcement; justice reform; gun rights; protecting German borders; labor market reform; eliminating burdensome bureaucracy; promoting the traditional family; encouraging Germans to have more children rather than resorting to mass migration to fix its demographic problems; protecting the rights of the unborn; promoting German culture rather than multiculturalism; promoting the German language as the basis for German identity and for integration; banning the foreign financing of mosques; eliminating government subsidies for radio and television; and so on. Many of the AfD's positions were once held, but later abandoned, by the CDU.
Meanwhile, a September 1 poll for ARD television showed Merkel's popularity rating has plunged to 45%, a five-year low, and down from a high of 67% one year ago. More than half (51%) of those surveyed said it would "not be good" if Merkel ran for another term in 2017. If national elections were held today, the CDU would win just 33%, down from 42% one year ago.
The poll showed one factor in Merkel's favor: the lack of a political rival strong enough to challenge her.
Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. He is also Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group. Follow him on Facebook and on Twitter.
© 2016 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

‘And what is Aleppo?’
Hisham Melhem/Al Arabiya/September 10/16
The surreal exchange was painful and enraging to watch. The amount of ignorance displayed by the four words uttered with a sense of worried resignation was staggering even by the historically low standards of a presidential campaign in which the Republican candidate proudly flaunts his disdain of reading books.
Gary Johnson, the former New Mexico governor and the presidential candidate of the Libertarian Party must have been living in the last five years either in a galaxy far, far away, or in solitary confinement; otherwise how can one explain the fact that a man aspiring to be the leader of the United States never heard of Aleppo? I would not have forgiven him even if he had displayed such shallowness before Syria and its largest famed jewel of a city began their slow, descent into a literal inferno, a man-made infernal region, of fire and brimstone in the form of daily rain of incendiary bombs.
But for Gary Johnson to share our shrinking space in the last few years and not to be aware of how Aleppo became the Capital of Pain in the world is beyond tolerance. For the edification and discomfort of all those who either did not listen to the exchange or read it in full, as it unfolded on MSNBC’s program “Morning Joe” between columnist Mike Barnicle and Johnson, here it is :
Barnicle: What would you do, if you were elected, about Aleppo?
Johnson: (quizzingly) About…?
Barnicle: (pronouncing slowly) Aleppo.
Johnson: (with a look of puzzlement bordering on trepidation): And what is Aleppo?
Barnicle: (somewhat startled) You are kidding.
Johnson: No
Barnicle: Aleppo is in Syria. (He continued after a brief pause) It’s the epicenter of the
refugee crisis.
Johnson: (trying to regain his composure) O.K. I got it. Got it.
Barnicle: O.K.
Johnson: Well, with regard to Syria, um, I do think that it’s a mess. I think that the only
Way that we deal with Syria is to join hands with Russia.
Aleppo was not even a fleeting concern during a full hour of discussion with candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in a forum devoted to national security issues
We are the hollow men
What is Aleppo? Aleppo is Omran Daqneesh, the five-year-old boy who was pulled out of the rubble of his home in Aleppo after it was bombed in mid-August by Syrian or Russian warplanes. Millions of people, but not you Mr. Johnson saw his expressionless face coated with a mixture of blood and gray dust gazing at us and seeing through our hollow souls, for “we are the hollow men” that T.S. Eliot wrote about almost a century ago. I would like to inform you Mr. Johnson that Omran was scarred but survived, unlike his 10-year-old brother, Ali, who died few days later, of his injuries.
What is Aleppo? Aleppo is Abu al-Ward, Arabic for the father of the roses, the last man standing, with his 13 year old son Ibrahim in the last garden in Aleppo, fighting destruction and desolation with flowers, roses and plants, trying in his own way to affirm life in the midst of devastation. I regret to inform you Mr. Johnson that last May, the barrel bombs of Assad the man who breathes fire and brimstone, claimed Abu al-Ward and the garden is no more, and Ibrahim has begun his endless wandering while wondering what will become of him and his cruel world.
Ibrahim, like the younger Omran might as well be living in a different universe, because we only get a fleeting glimpse of people like them once in a great while. World powers and regional powers and their numerous proxies may be fighting on Syria’s soil and turning its once green landscapes into red, and crowding its skies with fire spewing fighters and bombers, but somehow the Syrian people are alone, just as Omran was alone in his eternity of few seconds gazing at us and searing us, just as Ibrahim was alone when we last saw him praying over his father’s grave.
Hapless ignorance and willful ignorance
Candidate Johnson’s question: what is Aleppo went beyond his ignorance and intellectual laziness, for he essentially and unknowingly expressed the state of mind of most of those who consider themselves members of the political establishment in Washington. Aleppo was not even a fleeting concern during a full hour of discussion with candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in a forum devoted to national security issues, only few hours before Johnson was hit in the face by the reality of Aleppo.
Trump’s knowledge of Aleppo’s agony is probably one tiny notch better than Johnson’s, but he is as averse to leading and doing something useful, creative and assertive as President Obama is, and as naïve as Johnson AND President Obama in betting on hollow Russian promises of pursuing a political outcome and military coordination against the common enemies of the Islamic State ISIS and the former al-Nusra front. As for Hillary Clinton, she will essentially continue Obama’s overall approach to Syria, but might show more resolve.
Candidate Johnson’s ignorance is inexcusable, but in fairness it is not lethal. Gary Johnson was ignorant of the tragedy of Aleppo, but President Obama is guilty of brazen willful ignorance of the agony of Aleppo and knows who are the local, regional and international tormentors of Aleppo and the rest of Syria. One year after Russia’s military intervention in Syria, a bold move that was misinterpreted by the Obama administration which wanted to convince itself that Russia has fallen in the middle of a Syrian quagmire.
Nothing could be further from the truth. That initial wishful thinking disappeared gradually and in its place there emerged a new kind (and more dangerous) wishful thinking which could lead to joint Russian-American military operations against the anti-Assad Jihadists.
Russia has been trying very hard to legitimize its military intervention in Syria (and by extension, in the Ukraine) by convincing the White House of such tactical military cooperation in Syria. And yet, Russia’s promises and pledges to the US in Syria are as solid as the promises of Assad to Russia that he will ease or suspend direct attacks on civilian targets. For a full year Putin has been using his armed forces to practice live ammunition military attacks against Assad’s opposition groups and the civilians who support them.
Neither the resumption of political talks nor the Cessation of Hostilities in which the Russians were very instrumental has worked. But these moves, like this week’s temporary cease fire in the Aleppo area reflect the reality that for the past year it is Russia that has been calling the shots in Syria politically and militarily and the US lacks the leverage necessary for it to regain the initiative assuming that’s what the Obama Administration would like to achieve.
Words and deeds
Judging by the history of such agreements in Syria, it is not likely that this recent one will be implemented honorably by Russia and more importantly by the Assad regime and its close allies; Iran and Hezbollah. The Assad regime and its allies have been engaged in a brutal war of ethnic cleansing in both the Damascus and Aleppo environs. The war on the civilians is succeeding in driving the mostly Sunni population out of these two key regions, which are essential for Assad to maintain control of what is known as “useful Syria” which is composed of the coastal (predominantly Alawite region) and a corridor along the Syrian-Lebanese borders that includes the cities of Homs and Hama linking the greater Damascus area with the coastal region and all the way to Aleppo. The agreement may hold temporarily, but in the absence of a true and clear road map to a post Assad political transition that is acceptable to most opposition forces, nothing of lasting value is likely to be achieved. It is true that Russia would like to reach an agreement, even a temporary one with an administration that is in its twilight moment, but in fact all the players in Syria, the region and beyond are treating the Obama administration as one that is marking time.
The shame of Syria and the ghosts of Aleppo will haunt President Obama for the rest of his life, and his abandonment of Syria will irreparably tarnish his legacy. What candidate Johnson has said and what he did not know was inexcusable, but what President Obama knew about Syria and Aleppo (when was the last time Obama addressed the calamity of Aleppo?) and the little incomplete and halfhearted things that he did, and most importantly the things he promised to do and deliver, but did not in a clear and deliberate act of willful ignorance, are infinitely more damaging and more dangerous than anything candidate Johnson could say or do.

When disruptive technology disrupts absolutely
Ehtesham Shahid/Al Arabiya/September 10/16
When a leading business school professor of strategy and technology management speaks on the subject of digital business transformation, he is bound to make compelling arguments, and illustrate them with examples. And if the subject happens to be the disruption of traditional business models, with the coming of age of digitalization, then it reaches another level. That’s what I watched unfold earlier this week at a forum organized to discuss business transformation across the Gulf countries by virtue of diversification and digitalization. There were insights on the subject from academics, analyses of macro trends by economists and success stories shared by small to large businesses and semi-government organizations. It became obvious that a lot of progress has been made in terms of the adoption of latest technologies. Yet, everyone agreed, that more needs to be done to fully benefit from the innovation that is continuously shaping the world around us. The term repeated the most during the session was disruptive technology – referring to a technology that displaces an established one and shakes up the industry. The examples ranged from driverless cars to drones for parcel delivery and even microchips in shoes to help target market segments. The professor explained how business leaders can face the challenges of this “new world order” by building teams with fresh perspective. He laid emphasis on encouraging collaboration among team members and fostering innovation and creativity. A huge number of those on the wrong side of the digital divide are yet to benefit from cutting edge technologies as they are too far down the value chain
Preaching to the converted
There was hardly something you could disagree with, except one – isn’t this preaching to the converted? Governments and businesses around the world by and large realize the potential of technology, especially those of the disruptive kind. They are doing everything they can to tap this potential and make goods and services cost-effective, efficient and freely available. The problem lies elsewhere i.e. the large areas where the real benefits of such technologies are yet to reach. What makes business sense – or reaches economies of scale – gets monetized fairly quickly and hence gets implemented. In the developed world, mechanisms are available to turn a blueprint into a feasible business plan or a policy that benefits the needy. It is not quite the same everywhere else though and a huge number of those on the wrong side of the digital divide are yet to benefit from cutting edge technologies as they are too far down the value chain. The discrepancy is brilliantly summed up in a paper produced by a capital markets advisory services firm. “Agriculture has been a ‘Cinderella’ sector of the economy for decades, marginalized for 100 years by growth of the industrial sector and then for the past 20-30 years by the extraordinary growth of the technology and financial services sector. According to the Hardman Agribusiness paper, with estimates of peak human population continuing to rise, the existential importance of agriculture, has brought the sector back into political and economic focus. This is why more needs to be done to integrate latest technology with where it is needed the most.
The obvious question
Yet, I had to walk up to the professor to ask the obvious question. Why are these so-called disruptive technologies concentrated in areas that have already benefited from them, at least to some extent? Why isn’t more being done in the agriculture sector, for instance, where it is probably needed the most? The professor indeed had an answer. “Of course it is happening. Drones are being used to catch tuna fish. Informed deforestation is being done based on data related to the condition of the tree etc.” Yet one could sense that this is few and far between. What about access of these technologies at a large scale for the benefit of farmers? Wouldn’t that be “disruptive” in the real sense and benefit the poorest of the poor? Indeed, he said, this is needed and is also beginning to happen, “but not yet at an industrial scale”. That explains it all. Agriculture may have given way to industrialization and then to services, but for anything to become beneficial at the mass level, it has to acquire “industrial” scale, not an agricultural one. There is no disrupting this cycle for the moment.

The Calais wall: Ring-fencing humanity
Yara al-Wazir/Al Arabiya/September 10/16
When Donald Trump suggested he would build a wall to keep Mexicans out of the United States of America, he received a lot of backlash and understandably so. However, when the United Kingdom announced that work is due to begin “very soon” on the “Great wall of Calais,” a 4 meter-high one-kilometre-long wall along Calais to stop people getting across the English Channel, the world seemed to brush it under the carpet. The caveat to remember is that the people getting across the Channel are predominantly refugees who have escaped after suffering enormous trauma in their lives. The other caveat is that there are hundreds in refugee camps who have family in the UK - in total, 21.4% of those surveyed by the Refugee Rights Data Project said they have family in the UK. Under the Dubs Amendment, proposed in February 2016, minors with family in the UK are highly likely to be eligible for safe passage to the UK.
Refugees need legal aid, not walls
What is getting in the way of people gaining the right to the UK is that they do not have access to advice or information on procedures. Research provided by the Refugee Rights Data Project showed that 46.7 percent were looking for legal methods to gain entry to the UK and have no interest in jumping on the back of a lorry. These people clearly have no interest in starting their new life in the UK by breaking the law. What the residents of the Calais camp need is not a wall to separate them from the future but bridges to help them get over the trauma of what they have been through. What happens when there is a severe shortage of information availability and desperate human beings attempting to better their lives or reunite with their family is a bottleneck and an overpopulated camp. A wall cannot debottleneck the camp of refugees and will not stop people from arriving at the camp. What the camp’s population needs is access to legal aid and advice on how to get out of the camp and onto safe land where they are respected human beings.
Building a wall will only build resentment and waste tax money
The wall is estimated to cost £2 million ($2.7 million) and will be paid for by UK-tax payer’s money. As a UK-tax payer, I am absolutely ashamed that hard-earned tax money is being spent on alienating and dehumanising people who have already suffered enough emotional and physical trauma, rather than on integrating them into society or helping them restart their lives. Instead of spending £2 million on a wall, the money should be spent on providing a healthy and safe environment with sufficient legal aid to help aid asylum seekers to reach their final destination. Let’s face it, the population of Calais’ camp has been through wars, they have seen death, they have seen horror and the worst days of their lives – they have nothing to lose. What area few extra weeks waiting in Calais? They will wait until they are processed, however long it will take. Humans are not animals – don’t ring-fence them. What the residents of the Calais camp need is not a wall to separate them from the future but bridges to help them get over the trauma of what they have been through. Building a wall will provide business opportunities for people-smugglers, which is what happened when the Greek-Macedonia border closed in March 2016. What will happen to the population of the camp when aid groups suffer volunteering fatigue? There is only so much time, effort, and money aid organizations can pump into a location like Calais when governments refuse to step up and spend money in the right place.

Sitting and standing during the national anthem
Mshari Al Thaydi/Al Arabiya/September 10/16
In one week, controversy over standing during the national anthem arose in two countries with completely different cultures. In the US, footballer Colin Kaepernick angered many Americans and others for refusing to stand for the national anthem because he said he objects to injustice against black people in the US. Even veteran footballers who understand the nobility of his intentions were angered, thinking his approach insulted the entire country. In Saudi Arabia, a photo showed a famous Muslim Brotherhood figure sitting in his chair while everyone stood as the national anthem “Hasten to glory and supremacy” was played at an official event. This reflects a deep problem of faith in the idea of homeland and citizenship, and the reverence of national symbols such as the flag, anthem, leaders and history. Kaepernick said his motive related to human rights and had nothing to do with religion. However, in the case of the Saudi Brotherhood figure, it is clear, according to his perspective, that there are political and religious motives. Speaking of religious motives, there have been many provocative acts in the Arab world by people affiliated with politicized religious groups. There have been many provocative acts in the Arab world by people affiliated with politicized religious groups
Arab examples
In Algeria, former Religious Affairs Minister Bouabdellah Ghlamallah suspended and punished five mosque imams because they refused to stand up as the national anthem was played. He did the same with engineering students at the Sonelgaz company’s training center. In Egypt, members of Al-Nour Party angered people when they did not stand up during the national anthem at a meeting of the 50-member committee to rewrite the constitution. One of the famous Egyptians who did not stand up for the anthem was preacher Yasser Brahimi. Then-interim President Adly Mansour issued a decree deeming disrespect of the Egyptian flag or not standing for the national anthem a crime requiring punishment. In Kuwait, the most famous example is Islamist MP Mohammed Hayef, who refused to stand up for the national anthem. He was fiercely criticized and had to defend himself. This behavior is not due to individual practices in these different countries. There are clear religious edicts, by those who are looked up to as role models, prohibiting standing up for the national anthem and flag. The real debate here is in separating illusion and truth. It is about the concept of the nation and homeland, the culture of law and citizenship, and the opposite of this culture, which still controls many people. *This article was first published in Asharq al-Awsat on Sept. 05, 2016.
 

In Saudi Arabia, a revolution disguised as reform
By Dennis Ross/The Washinton Post/September 10/16
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/09/10/dennis-rossthe-washinton-post-in-saudi-arabia-a-revolution-disguised-as-reform/
Today, it’s hard to be optimistic about anything in the Middle East. And yet having just visited Saudi Arabia, in which I led a small bipartisan group of former national security officials, I came away feeling hopeful about the kingdom’s future. That may seem paradoxical when some portray the Saudis as both “arsonists and firefighters” in the struggle with radical Islamists. While Saudi funding of madrassas internationally has contributed to the spread of a highly intolerant strain of Islam, I wonder whether a lag effect is causing the Saudis to be singled out for behaviors their leadership no longer embraces. In any case, that is certainly not the Saudi Arabia I just encountered.
In fact, the Saudi Arabia I just visited seemed like a different country from the one I’ve been visiting since 1991. There is an awakening underway in Saudi Arabia, but it is being led from the top. As one Saudi told us, there is “a revolution here disguised as economic reform.” While political change may not be in the offing, transformation is nonetheless taking place. Stylistically, one sees it in the candor of the conversations with Saudi officials — not the hallmark of previous interactions — as well as a new work ethic, with several ministers telling us 80-hour workweeks are now the norm. When we asked how those in the bureaucracy were reacting to the new demands, we heard that not everyone is happy but that younger, junior officials now feel they are part of something important and have embraced the new reality. Symbolically, the presence of women was notable in our meeting with the foreign minister and our visit to the College of Entrepreneurship, where half of the group we met were women.
Practically, the Saudis’ plans for transformation are ambitious, designed to diversify the economy, end overreliance on oil, keep capital in the country for domestic investment, and foster both transparency and accountability. “Transparency” and “accountability” are not terms one would have used in the past to describe Saudi Arabia. But plans to take a small part of Aramco public will require opening the books of the giant Saudi oil corporation, meaning, if nothing else, that if members of the royal family have used it as a private ATM, they will no longer be able to do so. The minister responsible for arranging the initial public offering likened it to “doing an IPO for a country,” given the complexity of the undertaking. But there was no going back, and Mohammed bin Salman , the deputy crown prince, was emphatic in telling us that Saudi Arabia no longer has an ideology other than national development and modernization. For him, there is no choice but to pursue the ambitious targets specified in the “National Transformation Plan” and Vision 2030, which include tripling non-oil revenue by 2020, building a public investment fund to exploit other minerals, promoting the Saudis’ petrochemical and alternative energy bases, and developing their domestic tourist industries and entertainment centers. (The latter, we were told, was especially important so that Saudis would not feel compelled to leave the country because there was so little to see or do.)
Can this young prince save Saudi Arabia from itself?
Skeptics have questioned whether Saudi Arabia can fulfill these goals, either because of a traditional culture that limits women too much, a workforce lacking key educational skills or resistance from the conservative religious establishment. But the deputy crown prince and others argued that all these impediments can be overcome: A comprehensive reform of the educational system is being carried out, 80,000 students are studying abroad and returning to the kingdom with modern skills and a new mind-set, and women are being increasingly integrated into jobs across all sectors. About 70 percent of the Saudi population is under 30, they noted, and these young people are not just open to change; they seek it.
No one we saw minimized the challenges of transforming the country. But the leaders conveyed a sense of mission and urgency. As Mohammed bin Salman told us, the government must do what it says it will do — and to that end, he took pride in pointing out that already the government has succeeded in generating 30 percent more revenue, reducing the deficit beyond expectations, introducing discipline in the budgeting process and, importantly, ending the authority of the “religious police” to interrogate and arrest Saudi citizens.
Will the Saudis succeed in producing a national makeover? There will be opposition, and any stumbles will be exploited by forces of tradition. Moreover, the war in Yemen may drain resources and, in time, public support. Or the preoccupation with Iran, or Iranian efforts at subversion, could prove distracting and hard to overcome.
But the United States surely has a stake in the success of the Saudi transformation process. Aside from ensuring stability in the kingdom, its success could at long last demonstrate an Arab leadership capable of remaking its society from within, without terrible upheaval. The next administration should offer technical assistance with the Aramco IPO and economic reforms more generally. Similarly, because the Saudis have two priorities — modernization domestically and countering perceived Iranian adventurism externally — our next president should propose a strategic dialogue as well as contingency planning for dealing with security threats. Such planning would do much to reassure the Saudis at a time when their leadership believes the United States fails to understand the threat from Iran and its use of Shiite militias to undermine Arab governments.
The Saudis are not imagining Iranian troublemaking in the region or their financing of Hezbollah and other terrorist groups. Ironically, it may be the Saudis who have the better chance to transform their country and truly develop: Unlike the Iranians, they may not be inhibited by ideology, they have a plan for modernization and their leaders — in contrast to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — want to open up their country. I wouldn’t bet against them.
**Dennis Ross, a counselor and fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, was a special assistant to President Obama from 2009 to 2011.
 

Obama hands Syria over to Putin
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 10, 2016
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2016/09/10/debkafile-obama-hands-syria-over-to-putin/
The Syrian cease-fire agreement that US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced Friday night, September 9, in Geneva hands Syrian affairs over to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and the country’s military.
The accord marked a sharp reversal for Washington. In his meeting with Putin in China last week, US President Barack Obama did not agree to those steps for the simple reason that such an agreement would be in line with the policy and stance of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, not those of the Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
Trump suggested several months ago that the US should let Putin finish the war in Syria, asserting that the Russian leader would be able to do it better.
Under the current situation it is no wonder that Kerry and Lavrov agreed not to release the details of the agreement. Publication of the details would reveal that the rebels in the Aleppo area, and perhaps in all of Syria, have been abandoned.
The Syrian rebels now find themselves trapped by both the Russian-Turkish agreement and the Russian-US agreement, with a noose seemingly closing around them.
Meanwhile, on Friday, debkafile released the following report:
The fledgling “initiatives” reverberating this week in Washington, Moscow, Ankara, Jerusalem and the G20 summit were nothing but distractions from the quiet deals struck by two lead players, Russia and Turkey to seize control of the region’s affairs. Recep Tayyip Erdogan knew nothing would come of his offer on the G20 sidelines to US President Barack Obama to team up for a joint operation to evict ISIS from Raqqa. And, although Moscow was keen on hosting the first handshake in almost a decade between Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and the Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), neither were known to be ready for the last step toward a meeting.
But the game-changing events to watch out for took place in Hangzhou without fanfare – namely, the Obama-Putin talks and the far more fruitful encounter between Putin and Erdogan.
According to debkafile’s intelligence and Mid East sources, Putin virtually shut the door on further cooperation with the United States in Syria. He highhandedly informed Obama that he now holds all the high cards for controlling the Syrian conflict, whereas Washington was just about out of the game.
Putin picked up the last cards, our sources disclose, in a secret deal with Erdogan for Russian-Turkish collaboration in charting the next steps in the Middle East.
The G20 therefore, instead of promoting new US-Russian understanding, gave the impetus to a new Russian-Turkish partnership.
Erdogan raked in instant winnings: Before he left China, he had pocketed Putin’s nod to grab a nice, 4,000-sq.km slice of northern Syria, as a “security zone” under the control of the Turkish army and air force, with Russian non-interference guaranteed.
This Turkish zone would include the Syrian towns of Jarablus, Manjib, Azaz and Al-Bab.
Ankara would reciprocate by withdrawing its support from the pro-US and pro-Saudi rebel groups fighting the Assad army and its allies in the area north of Aleppo.
Turkey’s concession gave Putin a selling-point to buy the Syrian ruler assent to Erdogan’s project. Ankara’s selling-point to the West was that the planned security zone would provide a safe haven for Syrian refugees and draw off some of the outflow perturbing Europe.
It now turns out that, just as the Americans sold the Syrian Kurds down the river to Turkey (when Vice President Joe Biden last month ordered them to withdraw from their lands to the eastern bank of the Euphrates River or lose US support), so too are the Turks now dropping the Syrian rebels they supported in the mud by re-branding them as “terrorists.”
The head of this NATO nation has moreover gone behind America’s back for a deal with the Russian ruler on how to proceed with the next steps of the Syrian conflict.
Therefore, when US Secretary of State John Kerry met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Geneva Thursday and Friday, Sept. 8-9, for their sixth and seventh abortive sit-downs on the Syrian issue, there was not much left for them to discuss, aside from continuing to coordinate their air traffic over Syria and the eastern Mediterranean.
Washington and Moscow are alike fearful of an accidental collision in the sky in the current inflammable state of relations between the two powers.
As a gesture of warning, a Russian SU-25 fighter jet Tuesday, Sept 6, intercepted a US Navy P8 plane flying on an international route over the Black Sea. When the Russian jet came as close as 12 feet, the US pilots sent out emergency signals - in vain, because the Russian plane’s transponder was switched off. The American plane ended up changing course.
Amid these anomalies, Moscow pressed ahead with preparations to set up a meeting between the Israeli and Palestinian leaders, as the Russian Foreign Ministry announced Thursday.
Putin is keen to succeed where the Obama administration failed. John Kerry abandoned his last effort at peacemaking as a flop two years ago. But it is hard to see Netanyahu or Abu Mazen rushing to play along with the Russian leader’s plan to demean the US president in the last months of his tenure - especially when no one can tell who will win the November 8 presidential election – Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump – or what policies either will pursue.
All the region’s actors will no doubt be watching closely to see how Turkey’s “Russian track” plays out and how long the inveterate opportunists can hang together.