LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
December 22/15

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletins05/english.december22.15.htm 

Bible Quotations For Today

I am the light of the world. Whoever follows me will never walk in darkness but will have the light of life
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 08/12-20: "‘I am the light of the world. Whoever follows me will never walk in darkness but will have the light of life.’Then the Pharisees said to him, ‘You are testifying on your own behalf; your testimony is not valid.’Jesus answered, ‘Even if I testify on my own behalf, my testimony is valid because I know where I have come from and where I am going, but you do not know where I come from or where I am going. You judge by human standards; I judge no one. Yet even if I do judge, my judgement is valid; for it is not I alone who judge, but I and the Father who sent me. In your law it is written that the testimony of two witnesses is valid. I testify on my own behalf, and the Father who sent me testifies on my behalf.’Then they said to him, ‘Where is your Father?’ Jesus answered, ‘You know neither me nor my Father. If you knew me, you would know my Father also.’He spoke these words while he was teaching in the treasury of the temple, but no one arrested him, because his hour had not yet come.

By faith Noah, warned by God about events as yet unseen, respected the warning and built an ark to save his household
Letter to the Hebrews 11/07-10:"By faith Noah, warned by God about events as yet unseen, respected the warning and built an ark to save his household; by this he condemned the world and became an heir to the righteousness that is in accordance with faith.By faith Abraham obeyed when he was called to set out for a place that he was to receive as an inheritance; and he set out, not knowing where he was going. By faith he stayed for a time in the land he had been promised, as in a foreign land, living in tents, as did Isaac and Jacob, who were heirs with him of the same promise. For he looked forward to the city that has foundations, whose architect and builder is God.

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 21-22/15
How will Hezbollah respond to Samir Kuntar’s death/Nicholas Blanford/Now Lebanon/December/21/15
Report: Kuntar planning major terror attack on Israel when he was killed/Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynetnews/December 21-22/15
How Hezbollah may take revenge/Yoav Zitun/Ynetnews/December 21-22/15
Will Hezbollah, Iran avenge the killing of Kuntar/Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/December 21/15
From the Archive/Samir Kuntar, enough with the arrogance/Hanin Ghaddar/Now Lebanon/December 21/15
How the Saudis Can Actually Fight Terrorism/By Editorial Board/Bloomberg View/December 21/15
Moderate Islam' Isn't Working/Cheryl Benard/The National Interest/Decem,ber 21/15
Zarif: Iran sees 'mostly negative signals' from US/Laura Rozen/Al-Monitor/December 21/15
US, Iran move to avert firestorm over visa waiver program changes/Mohammad Ali Shabani/Al-Monitor/December 21/15
Is Saudi Arabia building an 'Islamic NATO?'/Fahad Nazer/Al-Monitor/December 21/15
Germans Stock Up on Weapons for Self-Defense/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/December 21/15
Erdogan says Kurdish militants will be 'annihilated'/Week in Review/Al-Monitor/December 21/15
The U.N. plan for Syria has two major flaws/Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/December 21/15
Who killed Hezbollah’s Samir Qantar? Ask Syria/Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/December 21/15
Fighting terrorism with Arab forces/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/December 21/15
Yazidi politician in Iraq: The international community has abandoned my people/By SETH J. FRANTZMAN/J.Post/December 21/15
The battles in N. Syria will determine the fate of the peace process/DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis December 21/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on December 21-22/15
How will Hezbollah respond to Samir Kuntar’s death?
Report: Kuntar planning major terror attack on Israel when he was killed
How Hezbollah may take revenge
Will Hezbollah, Iran avenge the killing of Kuntar?
From the Archive/Samir Kuntar, enough with the arrogance
Ban Urges 'Maximum Restraint' after Lebanon-Israel Cross-Border Fire
Free Syrian Army Claims Assassination of al-Quntar
Reports: Exporting Trash Sole Item on Cabinet Agenda
Thousands Attend Funeral of Samir al-Quntar in Dahieh
Report: French Official Addresses Lebanese Presidency in Tehran
Nasrallah Says Hizbullah to Avenge Quntar at 'Appropriate Time, Place'
National Dialogue Focuses on Reactivating Govt. Work
Arrest Warrant Issued against Ex-MP Hassan Yaaqoub in the Abduction of Hannibal Gadhafi
Cabinet Discusses Garbage Exportation amid 'Negative' Indications
STL Reschedules Trial Date of al-Amin's Contempt Case
Mastermind' of Bourj Barajneh Bombing Charged with Belonging to IS

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 21-22/15
Trump: Clinton a ‘liar’ for ISIS recruiting claim
Israel interior minister quits over sex crime claims
ISIS lost 14 pct of its territory in 2015: report
Canada looking at ‘wider’ ISIS threats in Libya, Sinai
Turkey’s pro-Kurdish party leader to visit Moscow this week
Obama chides Republicans for lack of alternatives on ISIS
Iraqi army readies for operation to retake Ramadi
U.N. works to ensure Libya unity govt security
Iran: Changes to U.S. visa waiver program contradict nuke deal
Yemen Truce Fragile as Saudi Intercepts Rebel Missile
China Landslide Leaves 91 Missing

Links From Jihad Watch Site for December 21-22/15
Obama will veto counter-terror measures to save the Iran nuke deal
U.S. lets in four times as many suspected terrorists as it keeps out
Extradited Chinese national guilty of supplying Iran with goods used to make nuclear weapons-grade uranium
Afghanistan: Mullah murders U.S. Army veteran and aid worker
UK: Muslim rape gang found guilty of sexual grooming of 14-year-old non-Muslim girl
Video: Robert Spencer: Modern Man and the Defense Against Jihad
Islamic State recruitment video features Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, not Donald Trump
Egyptian political analyst: All Islamic groups and members support the Islamic State
Daniel Greenfield Moment: Muslims Are Not the New Jews
Raymond Ibrahim: “But ISIS Kills More Muslims Than Non-Muslims!”

How will Hezbollah respond to Samir Kuntar’s death?
Nicholas Blanford/Now Lebanon/December/21/15
Nasrallah has promised a tit-for-tat policy, but the party must be careful not to provoke a conflict neither it nor Israel wants
Nasrallah and Kuntar on the latter
The handful of rockets fired from south of Tyre into western Galilee last night was a foretaste of the retaliation yet to come for the killing of Samir Kuntar, a veteran of resistance against Israel and Lebanon’s longest serving detainee in an Israeli jail. Kuntar died late Saturday night in the Jaramana district of Damascus in an airstrike attributed to Israel that destroyed the six-story building in which he was staying.Hailed in Lebanon as a resistance hero, Kuntar was reviled in Israel for his role in a 1979 seaborne raid on Nahariyah that left three members of one family dead along with a policeman. He was sentenced to 542 years in prison in 1980 but was released in 2008 in a swap for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers abducted by Hezbollah in July 2006, an incident that triggered the month-long war that summer. Kuntar, a Druze from Abey in the Chouf, was swiftly incorporated into Hezbollah’s ranks on his release and when the conflict in Syria began was tasked with building an anti-Israel resistance force in the Golan Heights. There are mixed reports as to his success in the Golan as a military commander. Several small-scale attacks were attributed to his organization, beginning in December 2013 with a roadside bomb attack against an Israeli army jeep in the northern Golan which came four days after Hassan Laqqis, a senior Hezbollah commander, was shot dead in southern Beirut. A flurry of attacks in February and March 2014 along the Alpha Line, which separates the Israeli-occupied Golan from the UN-patrolled buffer zone, was also pinned on Kuntar’s group with possible assistance from Hezbollah. The attacks, which were a response to an Israeli airstrike against a Hezbollah weapons storage facility near Janta in the Bekaa Valley on 24 February, culminated in the wounding of four Israeli soldiers in a roadside bomb ambush three weeks later in the northern Golan.
Regardless of Kuntar’s capabilities as a field commander, for Hezbollah he was a potent symbol of enduring anti-Israel resistance and, as a Druze, of cross-sectarian unity in the struggle against the Jewish state. Ali Ammar, a Hezbollah MP, said on Sunday that Kuntar’s death would be avenged, leaving it up to the party’s military command to choose the means and timing of retribution. The launching of Grad rockets on Sunday evening was entirely in keeping with the dynamics surrounding Kuntar’s death and was simply a knee-jerk signal of displeasure toward Israel; an hors d’oeuvre ahead of the main course. Three 122mm Grad rockets were fired from orange groves about 1.5 kilometers northwest of Hanniyeh village, nine kilometers south of Tyre. All three flew about 18 kilometers to the south into Israel, with one crashing into the sea and the other two exploding in open areas just north of Nahariyah without causing casualties.
The rocket attack was reportedly claimed by the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, subsequently confirmed by security sources in the south. The Israelis responded with eight 120mm mortar rounds fired from the border outpost at Zarit, opposite the Lebanese village of Marwahine. The rounds impacted in Wadi Nafka, a deep ravine south of Zibqine. The fact that the Israeli military chose to drop a few mortar rounds into a remote and unpopulated valley six kilometers south of Hanniyeh rather than fire 155mm artillery shells at the rocket launch site demonstrated that Israel was unwilling to risk further escalating the situation and was content with a few loud bangs on the Lebanese side of the border. The current situation mirrors the immediate aftermath of an Israeli pilotless drone strike on 18 January in the Golan that killed Jihad Mughniyeh — son of former Hezbollah military commander Imad Mughniyeh — an Iranian general and five other Hezbollah fighters. Hezbollah struck back 10 days later with an anti-tank missile ambush against an Israeli army convoy at the foot of the Shebaa Farms hills, killing an officer and a soldier.
Following the ambush, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech that the rules of engagement that had defined the tit-for-tat conflict between Hezbollah and Israel were over. “From now on, if any Hezbollah resistance cadre or youth is killed in a treacherous manner, we will hold Israel responsible and it will then be our right to respond at any place and at any time and in the manner we deem appropriate,” he said. Nasrallah is due to speak Monday night and will probably reaffirm that commitment, which will ensure a state of tension along Israel’s northern border in the coming days.The concept of reciprocity is a cornerstone of Hezbollah’s defense strategy against Israel, which may offer a clue as to the party’s response to Kuntar’s assassination. In the years following the 2006 War, Nasrallah has articulated on several occasions Hezbollah’s strategy of retaliating in kind for Israeli actions against Lebanon in a future conflict — if Israel bombs Beirut, Hezbollah bombs Tel Aviv; if Israel blockades Lebanese ports, Hezbollah will blockade Israeli ports with its long-range anti-ship missiles; if Israel invades Lebanon, Hezbollah will invade Galilee. Even on a tactical level, Hezbollah has sought to achieve reciprocity against Israel. In October 2014, Hezbollah mounted a roadside bomb ambush in the Shebaa Farms that wounded two Israeli soldiers in response to the death a month earlier of a party military technician who died when a booby-trapped Israeli wire-tapping device exploded.
The January anti-tank missile attack against the Israeli convoy in the Shebaa Farms also sought to echo Israel’s deadly drone missile strike in the Golan 10 days earlier.
“They killed us in broad daylight, we killed them in broad daylight… They hit two of our vehicles, we hit two of their vehicles,” Nasrallah said at the time. One option is to allow Kuntar’s group in the Golan to assume responsibility for a retaliation, even if it is conducted under Hezbollah auspices. It could come in the form of a roadside bombing or anti-tank missile ambush across the Alfa Line in the Golan, thus conveying the impression that Kuntar’s legacy of a Syria-based anti-Israel resistance endures. A second option is for Hezbollah to take direct credit for an operation against Israeli troops, possibly in the Shebaa Farms area, similar to the deadly missile ambush in January. In expectation of a retaliation, Israeli troops along the Blue Line and in the northern Golan are likely to exercise extreme caution and limit movements in the coming days, thus complicating Hezbollah’s opportunities to strike. A third, less likely, “wild card” option could see Hezbollah settle for something out of the ordinary to demonstrate military prowess, daring and the requisite reciprocity, such as dispatching across the border one of its own drones, fitted with missiles or laden with explosives, to target an Israeli military base.Whatever method of retaliation Hezbollah chooses, it will need to draw Israeli blood to satisfy the requirements of deterrence. Israel’s decision not to counter-retaliate to the deaths of two soldiers in Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile ambush in January demonstrated that Hezbollah can get away with a fatal attack against Israeli troops without triggering a tit-for-tat escalation that could lead to a war that neither side wants. The trick, as it always has been in such situations over the past 15 years, is to exact a toll against Israel that constitutes a painful slap but not to the extent that Israel feels it has no choice but to counter-respond.
Whether Hezbollah can strike the right balance in this latest exercise of brinkmanship between these two bitter enemies should become clear in the days ahead.
**Nicholas Blanford is Beirut correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor and author of Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah’s Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel.

Report: Kuntar planning major terror attack on Israel when he was killed
Ron Ben-Yishai/Ynetnews/Latest Update: 12.20.15/ Israel News
Notorious terrorist was reportedly deemed a 'ticking bomb' by Israel and the West; rejected by Hezbollah, he planned attacks as a 'freelancer'. Samir Kuntar, the notorious terrorist killed Saturday night near Damascus, was believed to be preparing a major terror attack against Israel from the Golan Heights, according to highly reliable Western sources. According to these sources, last year Kuntar turned into a kind of independent terror entrepreneur and was considered by Israel and the West to be a "ticking bomb". The sources said Kuntar had recently not been working on behalf of Hezbollah, but rather acting with increasing independence alongside pro-Assad militias in Syria. The organization with which Kuntar was working was founded by the Syrian regime to replace the brutal Shabiha (an Alawite militia), which even the Syrian regime opted to reject. Assad's regime therefore established a less vicious militia, the Syrian National Resistance Committee, which did not engage in the economic and criminal activities of the Shabiha. Farhan al-Shaalan, another senior leader killed Saturday night in the same building where Kuntar ran his secret operation, also belonged to the Syrian National Resistance Committee.
The rift with Hezbollah likely occurred because Kuntar was offended. At the end of 2014 and the beginning of 2015, Hezbollah became fed up with Kuntar's services and appointed in his stead Jihad Mughniyah, son of Imad Mughniyeh (a senior Hezbollah member killed in 2008), as the commander of the new Iranian-Hezbollah front established in the Golan Heights. This organization founded by Hezbollah together with the Iranians was about to begin its activities when Jihad and his men were eliminated in January 2015 by an aerial bombardment attributed by Hezbollah to Israel. The bombardment also killed an Iranian general, Syrian officers and Hezbollah fighters. Kuntar remained in the Golan Heights even though Hezbollah did not use him there against Israel. However, Kuntar, the notorious murderer of most of the Haran family, did not stop planning attacks against Israel and he mainly used his connections in the Druze community. He rented a safe house in the the town of Jaramana, south of Damascus, on the road leading to the Syrian Golan Heights, where he would consult maps and Druze partners who were supporters of the Damascus regime. Western sources believe Kuntar was in the final stages of planning and carrying out another attack against Israel, which senior Hezbollah officials apparently did not know about. These sources believe that Hezbollah viewed Kuntar as a symbol of Israel's humiliation because of the circumstances of his release from prison in 2008 and hence did not reject him, even when his operations in 2013 and 2014 were unsuccessful. Recently, Hezbollah officials began to reject his independent activities that were not to their liking. They feared Kuntar would get them involved in a confrontation with Israel by carrying out an attack in the Golan Heights. A successful attack and Israeli intervention would hurt the interests of the Syrian regime, those of Hezbollah, and of course Iran's strategic interests. Syria, Hezbollah, Iran and the Russians have no interest in a confrontation with Israel now, and certainly not a confrontation ignited by a "freelancer" such as Kuntar, driven by his hostility to Israel. This suggests that Kuntar was eliminated because he was considered a ticking bomb by more than one entity in the Middle East. However, there are those who believe that Hezbollah or Iran may try to carry out a revenge attack. What is interesting is that the Syrian regime refuses to lay the responsibility for the incident on Israel and its media is barely covering Kuntar's killing. The reason is probably that the Syrian regime does not want to be in a situation in which it is forced to respond against Israel.

How Hezbollah may take revenge
Yoav Zitun/Ynetnews/Published: 12.21.15,/ Israel News
Following the assasination of Samir Kuntar attributed to Israel, the IDF has increased its alert level along the Lebanese border; it is now confronting a more battle-hardened and capable Hezbollah. If it plays according to the rules set out in the last two years, it is just a matter of time before Hezbollah avenges the assassinations of Samir Kuntar and Farhan al-Shaalan and it will most likely be a ground operation. The IDF's alert level has increased, but its alertness is mainly in the intelligence domain. In response to the many attacks attributed to Israel in recent years, including attacks on Hezbollah's communication facilities, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah exacted revenge in the form of a pinpoint and limited attacks against the IDF. The last and most significant incident occurred a year ago when, in a Hezbollah ambush, eight anti-tank missiles were launched at Givati forces near the village of Ghajar, killing Captain Yochai Kalangel and Sgt. Dror Haim Nini. That attack was in retaliation for the targeted killing of Jihad Mughniyeh, the son of senior Hezbollah leader Imad, sent to the Syrian Golan to set up a Hezbollah base in the area after Kuntar failed at this task.
Only a year later, the reality on the northern border has changed dramatically. "Hezbollah no longer considers itself a terrorist organization but rather an army that can give a good fight," an IDF officer in command of one of the northern fronts recently told Ynet. IDF is well aware that alongside the fact that Hezbollah has tallied up 1,300 dead and 3,000 wounded in its ranks in Syria and Iraq, it has also gained confidence and battle management capabilities it didn't have until now. The following are the friction points that may erupt if and when Hezbollah chooses to react:
Fortification plan for towns near the border
The anti-tank missile attack on the Givati troops led to the IDF's acceleration and expansion of a program to deploy concrete blocks up to eight meters high in communities near the fence along the Lebanese border, such as Manara and Malkia.The program will also help disrupt terrorist infiltrations in the future, but as with any protection plan, it is not totally hermetic and sections of roads near the fence, orchards and agricultural fields will continue to be exposed to advanced anti-tank missiles or machine-gun fire.
New refugee population
Looking down from Mount Dov at both the Lebanese town of Marjayoun and the Israeli towns of Metulla and Beit Hillel reveals how the demographic permutations due to the Syrian Civil War have affected the reality on the ground. Just a few kilometers from the border with Israel, about 12,000 Syrians, most of them Alawites from the Damascus area and Daraa near Jordan, are gathered in refugee camps. The majority of them are involved in the development of thousands of dunams of agricultural land facing Israel. The refugee camps are not considered a security threat at this point or a focus for operational exploitation by Hezbollah, but they are taken into account in any revision of the IDF's operational plans in the area.
Hezbollah as a compartmentalized and confident army
The Lebanon border area is one of the first in which fighters who go out on operations are required to leave their mobile phones at the post, for fear they will be monitored by Hezbollah's advanced surveillance systems, some of which are made in Iran. IDF infantry brigades have had their training adjusted to deal with a different Hezbollah from the one they fought in 2006. They are now confronting brigades and battalions that know how to wage coordinated warfare based on organized combat doctrines and experience gained in Syria, along with capabilities in outflanking, suppressive fire with machine guns, and command and control techniques, as well as sophisticated ways of gathering intelligence such as with the use of drones.

Will Hezbollah, Iran avenge the killing of Kuntar?
Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/December 21/15/
Officially, Israel hasn't assumed responsibility for the killing of Lebanese Druze terrorist Samir Kuntar during the night of Dec. 19-20. Kuntar was sheltering with a group of terrorists, including Farhan al-Sha’alan, in a home in the town of Jaramana, south of Damascus, when guided air-to-ground missiles fired from distant warplanes slammed into the building, causing it to collapse on everyone inside. Hezbollah is blaming Israel for the attack, but so far, Israel has not responded officially.The general assumption among the international community is that the Israeli air force conducted the operation, after receiving precise intelligence in real time. This allowed it to settle the score with one of the most detested terrorists in Israel’s history. Three rockets were fired from Lebanese territory into Israel on the afternoon of Dec. 20, but there were no casualties or damage. These rockets were fired by Ahmed Jibril’s Popular Front General Command. Still, based on the Israel Defense Forces' (IDF) assessment, the real response to Kuntar’s assassination is yet to come. The rockets on Dec. 20 were little more than a three-gun salute in honor of Kuntar. The most interesting questions are: How will Hezbollah respond? How will Iran respond? What exactly is happening on that sensitive front, where the Israeli air force meets the Russian air force, in the sensitive Golan Heights border triangle between Israel, Lebanon and Syria, but also in the skies over Damascus? This operation in which Kuntar was killed is the latest in several other aerial attacks attributed to Israel, which have occurred in the Damascus sector and other regions of Syria.
The most intriguing issue now as far as security and military international forces are concerned — Americans, Europeans and Iranians — is whether the sophisticated Russian radar systems recently installed in the region “locked” on the warplanes, which fired the missiles that killed Kuntar. Were the pilots, apparently Israeli, targeted while they were bringing up the house in which Kuntar was hiding on their own target screens? Was there any communication between those pilots and those who identified them on the radar? Assuming that the pilots were Israeli, was there any prior coordination between Israel and Russia before the attack? With Kuntar serving as its operative for the past few months, how will Iran respond? How will Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah respond? The night of Dec. 21, Nasrallah, in a speech in Beirut, threatened retaliation against Israel over the assassination of his “beloved son,” Kuntar.Israel has faced off against numerous arch-terrorists throughout its history. Most recently, these have been Mohammed al-Deif, the “Father of Gaza Terrorism,” whom the IDF has tried and failed to assassinate on five separate occasions, and Imad Mughniyeh, the theorist and founder of Hezbollah terrorism, who was assassinated in Damascus in February 2008, in an intelligence operation attributed to the Mossad and CIA. About five months after the assassination of Mughniyeh, Israel released Kuntar in a controversial prisoner exchange with Hezbollah. Kuntar is better known to Israelis than the other two men and much more despised. He is also much less dangerous. Unlike them, Kuntar has a face, a smile and a propensity for brutality that staggers the imagination.
Kuntar earned this hatred legitimately. It all goes back to the dramatic night of April 22, 1979, which will never be erased from Israel’s memory. Kuntar, a 16½-year-old Druze from Mount Lebanon, infiltrated Israel at the head of a squad of four terrorists from the Palestine Liberation Front. They arrived in Israel in a rubber dinghy, which landed near the Nahariya beach up north. After killing an Israeli policeman, they broke into the Haran family home, taking Danny Haran, 31, and his daughter Einat, 4, hostage. Smadar, the mother, hid in a storage space above the bedroom, together with her daughter Yael, 2, while Kuntar and the other terrorists searched the house for other family members. In an effort to silence her toddler, Smadar accidentally smothered her to death. Meanwhile, the terrorists took the father and surviving daughter to the beach, where they tried to negotiate with Israel’s security forces. At some point, Kuntar shot and killed Haran right in front of his daughter. He then smashed her head in with the butt of his gun.
In the battle that developed between the terrorists and the Israeli police forces, two members of the terrorist squad were killed. Kuntar and another terrorist named Ahmad Abras were caught. Abras was released in 1985 as part of the Jibril deal, in which 1,150 security prisoners were swapped for three Israeli hostages. Kuntar, who had become the symbol of the despicable crime of killing a father right in front of his daughter, and then smashing the young girl’s head in, was ineligible for release. As if the story wasn’t colorful enough, during those years Kuntar grew a mustache modeled on Hitler’s. But time took its toll. In 2008, after serving 29 years of a life sentence, Kuntar and four other terrorists were eventually released from Israeli prison, in exchange for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers, Eldad Regev and Udi Goldwasser, who were kidnapped and killed in 2006 in an incident leading up to the Second Lebanon War. Up until the very last moment, Israel had no idea whether Regev and Goldwasser were still alive, or whether they had been killed at the time of their abduction. Hezbollah engaged in a long, public campaign of emotional extortion against the Israeli public and its government, until it finally got Kuntar back in exchange for the coffins of two Israelis.
With the passing of time and the dulling of the trauma, Israel began to hope that Kuntar, now somewhat older (he was 53 when he died this week), would soon vanish from the terrorist landscape. “All in all,” said one former top Mossad official to Al-Monitor, on condition of anonymity, who had dealt with the Kuntar issue, “We’re talking about a very inept terrorist, who only excelled in cruelty. He was a despicable murderer, but he did not pose a real threat, like Mohammed Deif or Mughniyeh.” Kuntar thought differently. Instead of building a calm new life for himself in the home that was built for him and with the wife who was chosen for him well ahead, he became a symbol of Hezbollah’s struggle. He volunteered to build a new terrorist network that would open a second front against Israel on the Golan Heights.
The network that Kuntar put together was amateur. It had very few successes, and it was apparently riddled with intelligence leaks, so that most of the attacks it was planning were foiled by the IDF with time to spare. The problem was that Kuntar tried to base his terror network on the Druze community, contributing to a deterioration of the relationship between Israel and the Druze living in the Syrian Golan Heights and the surrounding areas. Nevertheless, in the hierarchy of Israel’s most dangerous enemies, Kuntar never made the top tier. At some point, Nasrallah realized that Kuntar would never provide him with any real benefits and withdrew from him. Over the last year, he received the backing and support of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps instead. They helped him rebuild his terrorist network, which had suffered many significant blows at the hands of the IDF. That's why the attack against him is considered a resounding blow to Iran’s prestige, no less than an assault on Hezbollah. Now, all that is left to do is wait for a response.
The current estimation is that any response by Iran and Hezbollah will be minimal. Hezbollah is overextended across Syria and southern Lebanon. It is exhausted and bleeding heavily. The fighting is intense, with no end in sight. The number of casualties is accumulating, with Israeli intelligence sources assessing last week that Hezbollah has already lost about one-third of its total fighting force (counting dead and wounded). And the situation facing Iran is no less complicated. The nuclear deal with the world powers is now in the most sensitive stage of its implementation. Sanctions have not been lifted yet, and the economic situation in the country is still severe. War with Israel is the last thing that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei needs right now. It is quite possible that these circumstances led to the decision, attributed to Israel, that the time was ripe to eliminate Kuntar. It is much more reasonable to assume that Israel was taking advantage of intelligence in real time to foil a specific, planned future terrorist attack. Kuntar had been plotting new attacks on Israel in the Golan sector and continued to stir up trouble between it and the Druze minority in Syria. By doing all this, he signed his own death warrant and helped whomever it was to settle a historic score, 36 years after it all began.

From the Archive/Samir Kuntar, enough with the arrogance
 Hanin Ghaddar/Now Lebanon/November 4, 2011
Shortly after his release from an Israeli prison, Samir Kuntar visited Syria in November 2008 and met with President Bashar al-Assad, who awarded him Syria’s highest medal, the Syrian Order of Merit. Kuntar also visited Druze communities in the Golan Heights. On the border with Israel, he expressed solidarity with the Druze community: “President Bashar al-Assad has promised me that he will help you,” he said. “I say to you, soon President Assad will fly the Syrian flag over the Golan.” Of course, none of that happened. But Kuntar did not care. Exactly three years later, Kuntar told the Syrian people that he is ready to cut off the hands of any Syrian who dares challenge the Assad regime. At the same time, the Syrian government and media are ignoring the return home last week of the only Syrian prisoner freed as part of a swap deal between Israel and Hamas, Weam Amasha. Residents welcomed Amasha in the Golan Heights and refused to hold up photos of Assad. In a solidarity statement from his prison in Israel in May, Amasha voiced support for pro-democracy demonstrations in his homeland and went on a hunger strike to protest what he called a “massacre against unarmed Syrians” by the regime’s forces.
Kuntar wants to cut hands. Amasha wants to free Syria. Both were imprisoned in Israel, and both understand the meaning of freedom and dignity. But Kuntar preferred to turn a blind eye to the Assad regime’s killing of thousands of innocent civilians, including 267 children and babies, since the uprising began in March. He put his leader, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, who is a close ally of Assad, above the murdered protesters, forgetting the true meaning of the word resistance and why he joined the effort back in the late 1970s. The absurdity of protecting Assad is intolerable, especially since he has in essence admitted to the killing and torture of his people by accepting the recent Arab League initiative to end violence in Syria. If the regime was innocent and was just protecting itself from a conspiracy, it would have rejected all attempts at implicating it. However, Assad agreed to all the steps of the Arab League initiative, without any conditions. This is an indirect confession of his regime’s involvement in the violence.
He accepted because it has become clear that there is no turning back—the protests will not end—and he wants to buy more time. Everyone can see it, except Samir Kuntar and the likes, who display an arrogance that masks logic or humanity.  Of course no one expects Assad to implement the conditions of the Arab League initiative—that was made clear by yesterday’s killings and arrests of activists in Syria. If Assad fulfilled the required demands—that the regime withdraw tanks and troops from the streets, free political prisoners, accept Arab observers and foreign journalists, and open negotiations with the opposition within two weeks—there would be mass demonstrations all over Syria, including in Damascus and Aleppo. The opposition will not stop until the regime is toppled. That’s exactly why the initiative is doomed to fail. The problem is that people like Kuntar do not understand that Assad is just buying time, and that he and his regime are too weak to refuse any initiative. They still look at the Syrian regime as a sacred entity because it supports the scared Resistance. Kuntar is the Syrian regime’s kind of hero, one that cuts hands and protects murderers. After he was released, he rushed to Syria to get his medal, but did not mention the Lebanese who have been rotting in Syrian jails for decades or the Syrian political prisoners who have suffered much worse conditions than those he faced in Israeli prison. For they are not heroes. They did not kill any Israelis. All other political activity is a conspiracy, and deserves death, torture and pain. All those calling for freedom in the Syrian streets do not make sense to people like Kuntar. All the Syrian children who died in the past eight months are just victims of a conspiracy and deserve no sympathy. All prisoners who are viciously tortured every day by the Syrian security forces are not human beings.
It is the same arrogance that divides people into the honorable ones who support the Resistance and the traitors who are against it. If you are not ready to sacrifice your freedom, dignity and future for the sake of the Resistance and your dictator, you do not deserve to live. However, this arrogance cannot last on the new Arab street. In the face of the prevailing quest for dignity, it will lose. Samir Kuntar is today faced with Weam Amasha, who refused to meet with Assad upon his release because he understands that resisting the Israeli occupation in the Golan Heights does not contradict resisting one’s own dictator. Occupation and Dictatorship are two faces of the same coin.
Amasha gets it, but Kuntar is still arrogant.
Hanin Ghaddar is the managing editor of NOW Lebanon

Ban Urges 'Maximum Restraint' after Lebanon-Israel Cross-Border Fire
Naharnet/December 21/15/U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Monday urged “maximum restraint” from all parties after unknown militants fired three rockets at Israel from south Lebanon and Israeli forces retaliated by cross-border shelling. The secretary-general “is greatly concerned over yesterday’s firing of rockets within UNIFIL’s area of operations from the area of al-Hinniyah, in the vicinity of Tyre, towards Israel, which is a serious violation of (U.N. Security Council) resolution 1701 (2006),” his spokesman said. The Secretary-General “notes the retaliatory mortar attacks” by the Israeli army on the Lebanese area of Zibqin, he added. Ban Ki-moon “condemns any and all violations of resolution 1701 (2006) and urges all concerned to exercise maximum restraint and cooperate with UNIFIL in order to prevent an escalation,” the spokesperson said. “The parties must fully adhere to resolution 1701 (2006) and respect the cessation of hostilities,” he added.The United Nations is “committed to continuing to work with the parties to ensure that the calm that has prevailed in southern Lebanon continues to be sustained,” the spokesperson went on to say.

Free Syrian Army Claims Assassination of al-Quntar
Naharnet/December 21/
https://youtu.be/Fw8bjAVj1lU The Free Syrian Army claimed on Monday its responsibility for the assassination of prominent Hizbullah member Samir al-Quntar in Syria over the weekend. It denied in a video Hizbullah's claims that Quntar and his companions were killed in an Israeli jet strike, saying that such allegations are aimed at “making light of the FSA's achievements.”“They are also aimed at raising the morale of its mercenaries,” said the FSA fighters of Hizbullah members engaged in the Syrian conflict. Addressing the party, the so-called “knights of the Houran brigade” said: “We vow that all of your actions are being monitored and you will not be spared from our future strikes.” Media reports on Sunday said that Quntar was killed in an Israeli raid near the Syrian capital. Israeli warplanes targeted a building where Quntar and a number of his companions were residing in Hay al-Homsi in Jarmana southeast of Damascus, killing an unidentified number, they added. Witnesses said that three missiles were launched at the residential building and led to its total collapse, killing six individuals and wounding another twelve. Media reports close to Hizbullah said that Israeli warplanes carried out raids on the said location, killing at least nine individuals and an unidentified number were wounded. Israeli did not claim responsibility for the strikes. Quntar was imprisoned in 1979 in Israel after he was convicted of murder in an attack that left an Israeli policeman, a father and his two children dead. He was long wanted in Israel for the attack considered one of the grisliest in Israeli history.Israel released Quntar as part of a prisoner exchange in 2008, three decades after the killings, and has since become a high-profile figure in Hizbullah. In September the United States placed Quntar on its terror blacklist, saying he had "played an operational role, with the assistance of Iran and Syria, in building up Hizbullah's infrastructure in the Golan Heights."

Reports: Exporting Trash Sole Item on Cabinet Agenda
Naharnet/December 21/A cabinet session is scheduled to convene on Monday to tackle the thorny trash management file and the possibility of its exportation, amid reports predicting its failure due to the secrecy engulfing the details of the plan and the cost entailed. Exporting the trash is the sole item on the cabinet's agenda that will be held at the Grand Serail. Prime Minister Tammam Salam had stressed to his visitors on Sunday that no other items are listed on the agenda in order to avoid political controversies that could hamper the implementation of the plan, al-Mustaqbal daily reported. “I hope that we would be able to end this file,” he told the daily, adding: “I am not optimistic nor pessimistic.”Lebanon has been suffering from a waste management crisis since July when the Naameh landfill that receives the trash of Beirut and Mount Lebanon closed. The results of the session are not guaranteed due to the secrecy engulfing the details of the exportation plan, ministerial sources told An Nahar daily on condition of anonymity. They said that the identity of the companies and the cost of the exportation remain unrevealed in addition to the sources of funding, the duration of the deportation plan and whether it is a permanent or temporary measure. Labor Minister Sejaan Qazzi described the session as “not matching the standards because the ministers were supposed to get notified about the timing of the session 72 hours in advance. That is why we fear that the session would end up discussing issues without finding solutions that we are all eager for.”Furthermore, the prime minister will not include the issue of Lebanon's joining the Islamic alliance that was formed by Saudi Arabia, nor will he accept any discussions in that regard during the session, the Kuwait daily al-Anba reported. Salam will not include the controversial file of Lebanon's joining the Islamic alliance but plans to hold a separate session for that purpose if any of the ministers brought it up during today's session, added al-Anba. Saudi Arabia unveiled last week a coalition of 35 countries from across the Islamic and Arab world that is aimed at confronting “terrorism.”
The announcement that Lebanon joined the alliance sparked objections in the country, with some officials saying that they were not informed of such a measure.

Thousands Attend Funeral of Samir al-Quntar in Dahieh
Associated Press/Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 21/15/ Thousands of people gathered Monday in the southern Beirut suburb of Ghobeiri for the funeral of high-profile Hizbullah militant Samir al-Quntar, who the group says was killed by an Israeli airstrike near the Syrian capital.
Hizbullah said Quntar, who spent 30 years in an Israeli prison after a deadly operation in northern Israel, was killed Saturday along with eight others in the airstrike on a residential building in Jaramana, close to Damascus. Hizbullah has pledged to avenge his killing, sparking fears of escalation in a volatile region. Supporters of the group walked behind his coffin, which was draped in a yellow Hizbullah flag, at the funeral Monday. "The Israelis still haven't learned that with all these assassination attempts on leaders they are committing a huge mistake," senior Hizbullah official Hashem Safieddine said at the funeral. A thick crowd chanted "Death to Israel! Death to America!" and waved the Palestinian, Lebanese and Hizbullah flags, as the coffin was carried to a mausoleum reserved for "martyrs."Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is due to speak later Monday about Quntar's killing.
Israel has welcomed news of Quntar's death without claiming responsibility for the raid that killed him on Saturday. Shortly after Quntar's release from an Israeli prison in 2008, however, a top Israeli security official had warned he was a "target." In Dahieh's Ghobeiri neighborhood, a bastion of Hizbullah support, uniformed militants manned checkpoints flying the movement's yellow-and-green flag ahead of the funeral. Hizbullah helped negotiate Quntar's release in exchange for the bodies of two Israeli soldiers after he had spent 30 years in Israeli jails. Quntar was still a teenager when he and three other members of the Palestine Liberation Front infiltrated the Israeli village of Nahariya by sea from Lebanon in 1979. Israeli authorities accused the militants of shooting dead Danny Haran, 28, and battering his four-year-old daughter Einat's skull with rifle butts. Quntar has denied murdering the girl, saying she was killed in the crossfire. Quntar was sentenced to five life terms plus 47 years on charges of murdering the father and daughter and an Israeli policeman. Shortly after his release, he joined Hizbullah. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said he became "head of the Syrian resistance for the liberation of the Golan," a group launched two years ago by Hizbullah in the region, most of which Israel seized in the 1967 Middle East war. "In his seven years of freedom, Samir was involved in the resistance (against Israel) in Lebanon and when the first signs of resistance appeared on the occupied Golan front, he was one of the first to join up and Israel tried six times to kill him in Lebanon and Syria," his brother Bassam said in an article published in Lebanese daily al-Akhbar. "When Nasrallah announced we would soon see a Syrian resistance just as efficient as the Shiite resistance in southern Lebanon, Quntar was part of the equation," said Hizbullah expert and professor of sociology Waddah Sharara. Originally from the Druze mountains southeast of Beirut, Quntar was among Lebanese youths who fought alongside Palestinian militants in the country's civil war in the 1970s. Druze leader Walid Jumblat, whose father Kamal was a figurehead for Lebanese leftist movements before his assassination in 1977, paid tribute to Quntar. "Despite the differences in our political positions and on the Syria crisis, we condemn the death of the militant Samir... who dedicated his life to the struggle against Israeli occupation," he said.

Report: French Official Addresses Lebanese Presidency in Tehran
Naharnet/December 21/15/France has renewed its efforts to push for the election of a president in Lebanon during a visit for its Senate president, Gererad Larcher, to Iran, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Monday. Sources monitoring the presidency told the daily that Larcher had expressed after meeting Iranian officials his fears over the situation in Lebanon. “Lebanon is important to France, Iran, and Saudi Arabia,” he was reported as saying.Larcher had met in Iran with its President Hassan Rouhani and other officials. Lebanon has been without a president since may 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls.The latest efforts to end the vacuum saw the emergence of Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh as a candidate, but this drive has stalled in wake of reservations against his nomination.

Nasrallah Says Hizbullah to Avenge Quntar at 'Appropriate Time, Place'
Naharnet/December 21/15/Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah vowed Monday that his group will retaliate to the assassination of its top operative Samir al-Quntar “at the appropriate time and place and in the appropriate method.”“The martyr Samir al-Quntar is one of us and the Israelis killed him deliberately. It is our right to retaliate to his assassination at the appropriate time and place and in the appropriate method, and we will practice this right,” Nasrallah pledged. Dismissing a claim of responsibility by a Free Syrian Army faction, Hizbullah's chief said his group “has no doubt that the Israeli enemy was behind the assassination in a blatant military operation.” “Israeli warplanes fired guided missiles at the building,” he noted. Whether Israeli jets violated Syrian airspace to carry out the operation or fired missiles from the occupied Golan was "a technicality," Nasrallah noted. The 54-year-old was killed on Saturday night "when the Zionist enemy planes bombed the building where he lived in Jaramana," southeast of Damascus, Hizbullah had said in a statement that followed the operation. “The brother Samir had always been a target for Israel. The threats preceded the issue of the military resistance in the Golan,” Nasrallah noted.Slamming what he described as “desperate attempts by some media outlets which have claimed that Syrian armed groups were behind the assassination,” Nasrallah said Hizbullah “clearly and openly accuses the Zionist enemy of assassinating Samir al-Quntar.” Earlier in the day, an alleged FSA faction calling itself the Houran Knights Brigade claimed responsibility for Quntar's assassination in a YouTube video. Israel has welcomed news of Quntar's death without claiming responsibility for the air strike that killed him. Shortly after Quntar's release from an Israeli prison in 2008, however, a top Israeli security official had warned he was a "target." Hizbullah played a key role in Quntar's release after he had spent 30 years in Israeli jails, becoming known as the longest-serving Arab prisoner. Quntar was still a teenager when he and three other members of the Palestine Liberation Front infiltrated the Israeli village of Nahariya by sea from Lebanon in 1979. According to Israel's judiciary, the militants killed three Israelis, including a four-year-old girl. Quntar had however denied responsibility for the girl's death, saying she was killed in the crossfire. Shortly after his release, Quntar joined Hizbullah. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said he became "head of the Syrian resistance for the liberation of the Golan," a group launched two years ago by Hizbullah in the region, most of which Israel seized in the 1967 Middle East war. Separately, Nasrallah noted that the latest U.S. sanctions on Hizbullah are based on “unjust and false accusations,” pointing out that the party is “not concerned with offering a proof of its innocence.” He described the measures as a “political accusation aimed at tarnishing the image of Hizbullah in the minds of the peoples of the world and the region.”“We do not have funds in any bank in the world … or in Lebanese banks and the central bank and the directors of banks must not panic,” Nasrallah said. Calling on the Lebanese state and government to “shoulder the responsibility of protecting Lebanese citizens and businessmen,” Hizbullah's chief said “any accusation must be referred to the Lebanese judiciary.” “Some banking measures have started in the country and I warn against bowing to the American will,” he added. On Wednesday, the U.S. House of Representatives voted unanimously to impose tough new sanctions on banks that knowingly do business with Hizbullah. The U.S. bill requires the Obama administration to present to Congress a series of reports highlighting “the group's narcotics trafficking, transnational crime, and operations of international groups linked to Hizbullah, especially in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.”

National Dialogue Focuses on Reactivating Govt. Work
Naharnet/December 21/15/The 12th national dialogue session was held on Monday with officials deeming the last meeting of the year as “positive.”
The talks, held at Speaker Nabih Berri's Ain el-Tineh residence, witnessed the return of the Kataeb Party, which had been boycotting the meetings over the dispute on the trash disposal file. An agreement on exporting the waste prompted the party to go back on its boycott. It was represented at the talks by its chief MP Sami Gemayel. The next dialogue session has been set for January 11. The gatherers during Monday's session addressed the need to revitalize the role of the cabinet given the ongoing vacuum in the presidency. Tourism Minister Michel Pharaon told reporters after the meeting: “It is unacceptable in wake of the presidential vacuum for government's work to remain obstructed.”Media reports said on Monday that the national dialogue did not address the vacuum due to the tensions between the Change and Reform bloc and the Marada Movement in light of the nomination of Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh as president. Franjieh, a member of the March 8 alliance, will be running for the presidency along with MP Michel Aoun, a fellow member of the alliance and head of the Change and Reform bloc. Such a move has sparked tensions between the two sides, with Franjieh recently labeling his ties with Aoun as “abnormal” and that they have been that way for some two years. He had previously said that he would not run for the presidency as long as Aoun is a candidate. Aoun has said that he would not abandon the race for the presidency as long as he stands a chance of being elected. Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea is also a presidential candidate.

Arrest Warrant Issued against Ex-MP Hassan Yaaqoub in the Abduction of Hannibal Gadhafi
Naharnet/December 21/15/An arrest warrant has been issued against ex-MP Hassan Yaaqoub in the kidnapping case of Hannibal Gadhafi, the state-run National News Agency said on Monday. First Investigative Judge in Mount Lebanon Jean Fernayne issued the warrant against Yaaqoub and three of his bodyguards in the case of Gadhafi, the son of late Libyan President Moammar Gadhafi. The former lawmaker was arrested in connection to the abduction last week. He has denied any involvement in the case. Yaaqoub is the son of Sheikh Mohammed Yaaqoub – one of two companions who disappeared together with Imam Moussa al-Sadr in Libya in 1978. Hannibal Gadhafi, who resided in Syria, was kidnapped on December 11 in Lebanon's Bekaa valley near the Syrian border by groups sympathetic of the case of al-Sadr, but was freed by police hours later. Lebanese authorities charged Hannibal Gadhafi with withholding information about the disappearance of Sadr, who vanished in Libya in 1978.

Cabinet Discusses Garbage Exportation amid 'Negative' Indications
Naharnet/December 21/15/The cabinet held Monday a long-awaited session dedicated to the thorny issue of garbage exportation. “The atmosphere is negative in the cabinet session and (Prime Minister Tammam) Salam will likely make a statement about the garbage file after the meeting,” MTV said.
“During the cabinet debate, Salam intervened several times, demanding decisiveness and criticizing the rejection of all solutions,” LBCI television said. MTV noted that the cabinet was likely to fail to reach a decision “because most ministers are not in the picture of the latest developments.”“The session will be mainly focused on the ministers' questions,” it said. Prior to the session, Finance Minister Ali Hassan Khalil told reporters that he does not support “hiking gasoline prices” to fund the garbage exportation plan. Education Minister Elias Bou Saab of the Free Patriotic Movement for his part noted that he would raise “many questions about the funding sources, especially regarding public funds and the municipalities' revenues.”The session was accompanied by a protest outside the Grand Serail by civil society activists. Denouncing the manner in which the government has handled the waste management file, the activists warned authorities against “approving the exportation of garbage or hiking gasoline prices.”“This would mean that corruption has not ended,” the activists noted. They had long called for an eco-friendly solution to the garbage crisis that involves more recycling and composting to reduce the amount of trash going into landfills and a bigger role for municipalities. Lebanon has been suffering from a waste management crisis since July when the Naameh landfill that receives the trash of Beirut and Mount Lebanon closed. The government's failure to find alternatives led to the piling up of garbage on the streets and in random locations, which raised health and environmental concerns and sparked unprecedented street protests against the entire political class. The results of the session were not guaranteed due to the secrecy engulfing the details of the exportation plan, ministerial sources had told An Nahar newspaper on condition of anonymity.
They said that the identity of the companies and the cost of the exportation remained unrevealed, in addition to the sources of funding, the duration of the deportation plan and whether it is a permanent or temporary measure. Labor Minister Sejaan Qazzi of the Kataeb Party described the session as “not matching the standards because the ministers were supposed to get notified about the timing of the session 72 hours in advance.”“That's why we fear that the session would end up discussing issues without finding solutions that we are all eager for,” he said.

STL Reschedules Trial Date of al-Amin's Contempt Case
Naharnet/December 21/15/Special Tribunal for Lebanon Contempt Judge Nicola Lettieri on Monday rescheduled the trial start date in the case against the journalist Ibrahim al-Amin and al-Akhbar newspaper to February 24, 2016. Lettieri took the decision after the prosecutor introduced amendments to his “lists of Witnesses and Exhibits,” the STL said in a statement. He found “appropriate and necessary to order a postponement of the trial proceedings by four weeks in order to ensure that the Defense has sufficient time to prepare its case in light of these amendments,” the STL said. The judge ordered that “the Parties make their opening statements and the Amicus Curiae Prosecutor present his case in chief from 24 to 26 February and on 29 February and 1 March 2016, as needed.” The dates for the presentation of the Defense’s case, if any, will be determined “as soon as practicable,” the court added. The trial in the case was initially scheduled to start on January 28, 2016. Al-Amin and Akhbar Beirut S.A.L are each charged with one count of contempt and obstruction of justice. The initial appearances of the Accused were held on May 29, 2014. On January 23, 2015, the STL Appeals Panel unanimously decided that the court does have jurisdiction to hear cases of obstruction of justice against legal persons in the case against al-Amin and al-Akhbar, reversing a previous decision by Lettieri. Al-Amin and al-Akhbar, as well as al-Jadeed TV and its deputy chief editor Karma Khayat, had been charged with contempt by the tribunal after they disclosed details of alleged STL witnesses. The initial hearing in the contempt case was held on May 13, 2014 at the STL's headquarters in The Hague, amid the absence of al-Amin who later appeared before the court via video conference. On September 28, Lettieri sentenced Khayat to a fine of 10,000 euros on charges of “interfering with the administration of justice” by failing to remove online content on alleged witnesses. The STL has indicted five Hizbullah members for involvement in ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's Feb. 2005 assassination. Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah dismissed the court as a U.S.-Israeli scheme against his group and vowed that the accused will never be found.

Mastermind' of Bourj Barajneh Bombing Charged with Belonging to IS
Naharnet/December 21/15/Detainee Bilal al-Baqqar was charged on Monday with belonging to the Islamic State group. State Commissioner to the Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr charged him with carrying out terrorist acts and recruiting people to transport explosives. He is also charged with taking part in the bombing in Beirut's southern suburb of Bourj al-Barajneh on November 12. He faces the death penalty if convicted. Baqqar was arrested earlier in December and has been described as the mastermind of the November bombing. On November 12, two suicide attacks rocked a busy shopping street in Bourj al-Barajneh, killing 43 people and wounding over 239 others. The extremist IS group claimed responsibility for the attack.

Trump: Clinton a ‘liar’ for ISIS recruiting claim
Reuters, Washington Monday, 21 December 2015/U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said on Sunday that Democrat Hillary Clinton was a "liar" for claiming that his proposal to ban entry of all foreign Muslims into the United States has aided ISIS's propaganda efforts.
Speaking on NBC's "Meet the Press," Trump said Clinton had no evidence to back up a charge she made during a debate on Saturday that the Republican frontrunner is becoming the extremist group's "best recruiter.""She's a liar and everybody knows that," Trump said. "She just made this up in thin air."
Trump's call to ban all Muslims from entering the United States following a Jan. 2 attack in San Bernardino, California that killed 14 people has drawn widespread criticism from Republican rivals as well as Democrats like Clinton. During Saturday night's Democratic debate, Clinton said ISIS is using Trump's rhetoric to enlist fighters to radical militancy. "They are going to people, showing videos of Donald Trump insulting Islam and Muslims in order to recruit more radical jihadists," the Democratic frontrunner said. Counterterrorism experts and Reuters reporters who monitor Islamist online activity have found no evidence so far that ISIS has mentioned Trump in its official online accounts. Asked to comment on Sunday, the Clinton campaign did not respond to Trump's charge but reiterated that Hillary Clinton's remark was based on evidence that supporters of the extremist group frequently cite Trump's comments to make the case that Americans hate Muslims. It quoted a counterterrorism expert and linked to a tweet from a "very vocal ISIS supporter." For Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta, that's enough to indicate that Trump is helping, not hurting, the militant group. "That's the interpretation we made," Podesta said on "Meet the Press," adding "I think it's a very fair charge."Counterterrorism experts say it is nearly impossible to keep track of the torrent of online activity being generated by ISIS and its sympathizers. "There are very few analysts who have watched all of ISIS's videos," said counterterrorism analyst Daveed Gartenstein-Ross. "That being said, I believe Hillary Clinton's claim was false." Still, Trump's comments make it harder for the United States to build good will among Muslim populations and make him complicit in ISIS mobilization efforts, said Democratic strategist Bud Jackson. "Donald Trump is in essence aiding and abetting the enemy with his comments. He's making things worse, not better. There's no denying that," he said.

Israel interior minister quits over sex crime claims
AFP, Jerusalem Monday, 21 December 2015/Israel’s interior minister and vice-premier, Silvan Shalom, said on Sunday he was quitting his posts and leaving politics over media reports of sexual harassment and indecent assault. “Under these circumstances I have decided to resign from my position as minister and member of parliament,” he said in a statement. “My family is giving me full support but there is no justification for the price being exacted from it.”Israel’s attorney-general instructed police to investigate the reports, said a justice ministry report issued after Shalom’s announcement. Israeli media, led by the left-leaning Haaretz, have reported multiple allegations by former members of Shalom’s staff of sexual misconduct. Last week, the paper reported that an ex-staffer accused the minister but did not lodge an official police complaint. “The woman said that more than a decade ago, Shalom asked her to perform oral sex, abusing his authority over her. However, that case cannot be prosecuted because of the statute of limitations,” the paper reported. That same allegation surfaced last year as Shalom, of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rightwing Likud party, was tipped as a presidential candidate to succeed Shimon Peres. Its resurrection has brought other complaints in its wake. “Following the report,” Haaretz wrote on Sunday, “several other women also alleged that the minister sexually assaulted them”. The Jerusalem Post reported that 11 women had alleged “inappropriate sexual advances toward them”. The English-language daily added that his seat in parliament would pass to Amir Ohana, whom it said would become the first “openly gay” Likud MP.
Other cases
Israel has been plagued by many high-level sex cases, notably the December 2010 conviction of president Moshe Katsav for rape and sexual assault. He started a seven-year prison sentence the following year. In January 2015, attorney general Yehuda Weinstein urged the public not to lose faith in Israel’s police force despite sex and sexual harassment scandals reaching as high as the deputy national commissioner, the chief of police in the occupied West Bank and the Jerusalem police chief. Similar cases have blighted the army.

ISIS lost 14 pct of its territory in 2015: report
AFP, London Tuesday, 22 December 2015/The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group lost around 14 percent of its territory in 2015, while Syria’s Kurds almost tripled the land they control, thinktank IHS Jane’s said on Monday. The development is a blow to the group given that its aim is to capture and hold territory to expand its so-called “caliphate”, where it imposes a severe and bloody form of what it calls Islamic law. The militant group’s losses include the strategically important town of Tal Abyad on Syria’s border with Turkey, the Iraqi city of Tikrit, and Iraq’s Baiji refinery. Other big losses for the group include a stretch of highway between its Syrian stronghold Raqa and Mosul in northern Iraq, complicating supply lines. “We had already seen a negative financial impact on the Islamic State due to the loss of control of the Tal Abyad border crossing prior to the recent intensification of air strikes against the group’s oil production capacity,” said Columb Strack, IHS senior Middle East analyst. The U.S.-based thinktank said the group’s territory had shrunk 12,800 square kilometres to 78,000 square km between the start of the year and December 14. However, ISIS has made some high-profile gains during the year, including the historic Syrian town of Palmyra and the city center of Ramadi, the provincial capital of Anbar, Iraq’s largest province. IHS said those victories came at the expense of the group’s northern territories, which have been fiercely contested by Kurdish fighters. Lands under Syrian Kurdish control jumped 186 percent over the year, IHS said. “This indicates that the Islamic State was overstretched, and also that holding Kurdish territory is considered to be of lesser importance than expelling the Syrian and Iraqi governments from traditionally Sunni lands,” Strack said. “The Kurds appear to be primarily an obstruction to the Islamic State, rather than an objective in themselves.” Syrian Kurdish fighters dominate a group called the Syrian Democratic Forces, a coalition of Kurdish and Arab fighters battling militants in northeastern Syria that has risen in prominence in recent months. ISIS has also been beaten back by US-led coalition airstrikes, Iraqi forces and Syrian rebels. Iraq’s government managed to claw back some six percent of its territory from IS in the past year, while Iraqi Kurds regained two percent of their lands. The biggest territorial loser among the main actors in the Syrian conflict was the Syrian government, which lost 16 percent and is now left with around 30,000 square km, less than half the area controlled by IS and a fraction of Syria’s total area of about 185,000 square km.

Canada looking at ‘wider’ ISIS threats in Libya, Sinai
AFP, Ottawa Tuesday, 22 December 2015/Canada is taking a “wider” look at the danger posed by the Islamic State group in Libya and the Sinai peninsula, its defense minister said Monday during an unannounced visit to Iraq. “We need to look wider than the current threats that we face in Syria and Iraq,” Harjit Sajjan said during a conference call from Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region, where he met with Kurdish commanders and Canadian special forces. “I have to get a good sense of where the evolution of the mission is going and the evolution of the mission is going to be based on where Daesh is going to go,” Sajjan said, using an Arabic acronym for ISIS. He cited “potential threats in the Sinai” and Libya, where he said a vacuum was created after the toppling of longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi. Canada was involved in the multinational force that ousted the dictator in 2011. Since then a political deadlock in Libya has allowed militants and people-smugglers to flourish. Ottawa has welcomed an agreement among some rival Libyan factions to form a national unity government aimed at stemming chaos in the country. The deal, however, faces an uncertain future, with some Libyan tribal or regional groups rejecting it in advance. Canada’s new Liberal government has said it will withdraw its six CF-18 fighter jets from U.S.-led coalition airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, but has not said when. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he wants to swap in more military trainers. Last year, 69 military trainers were deployed to northern Iraq to train Kurdish militia. But Sajjan said the troop training mission is “being run by other nations currently,” so Canada must wait its turn. Canada, he said, could also offer battlefield medical training, more development aid, intelligence sharing, and flying of its military refueling aircraft and spy planes over Iraq and Syria. “Once we have that better understanding of the social fabric that includes the radical groups, the political situation, the economic (situation)... and how it links together, that’s going to allow us to figure out what type of capabilities to bring to the table,” Sajjan said. “At the end of the day we need to fight smarter.”

Turkey’s pro-Kurdish party leader to visit Moscow this week
AFP, Ankara Monday, 21 December 2015/The leader of Turkey’s opposition pro-Kurdish Democratic Peoples’ Party (HDP) will meet Wednesday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow for talks aimed at reducing tensions after the downing of a Russian warplane by Turkish forces, the party said Monday. The trip by Selahattin Demirtas -- a key rival of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- will be the first by a high profile Turkish figure to Russia since the shooting-down of the Russian Su-24 warplane led to a crisis in the two countries’ ties unprecedented since the Cold War. “The spike in tensions with Russia will inflict a heavy price on Turkey,” Nazmi Gur, an HDP lawmaker who will accompany the party leader during the trip to Moscow, told AFP. “Turkey’s engulfing itself in problems with its major neighbor will deepen problems including the Syrian crisis. What the peoples of Turkey need is not crisis,” he said. “I hope this initiative (by Demirtas) will help soften relations between Turkey and Russia,” he added. Demirtas had first announced the plan for the trip in an interview with a regional television over the weekend. There is no indication that the trip has been coordinated with the government. After the November 24 shooting down of the plane, Moscow has imposed a raft of economic sanctions on Ankara. Turkey says the Russian jet has violated several times its airspace but an infuriated Moscow insists it never strayed from the Syrian territory. Turkey, largely dependent on Russian oil and natural gas, has not hit back with sanctions measures of its own but accused Russia of using every platform to target Ankara since the crisis. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu met with Lavrov early this month on the sidelines of an international gathering in Belgrade in the first high-level contact between the two sides since the plane was shot down. Gur also said the HDP was planning to open an office in Moscow, as well as in several European capitals including London and Paris in 2016. Demirtas, seen as the only politician in Turkey who matches Erdogan’s charisma, unsuccessfully challenged the Turkish strongman in 2014 presidential elections. Ankara is warily watching if Moscow will tighten ties with Kurdish factions in the wake of the plane crisis and in particular whether it allows Syrian Kurds to open an office in Moscow.

Obama chides Republicans for lack of alternatives on ISIS
Reuters, Honolulu Monday, 21 December 2015/U.S. President Barack Obama said his administration is open to some “legitimate criticism” for failing to adequately explain its strategy to counter Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, though he chided Republican presidential candidates for criticizing his policy without offering an alternative. In a Dec. 17 interview set to air on NPR public radio at 5 a.m. ET (1000 GMT) on Monday, Obama attributed his low approval ratings for how he has handled terrorism to the saturation of ISIS attacks in the media after the Nov. 13 attacks in Paris that killed 130 people.
Obama noted that the United States has carried out 9,000 strikes against the ISIS and taken back towns including Sinjar, Iraq from the militant group. “When you ask them, ‘well, what would you do instead?’ they don’t have an answer,” Obama said of Republican candidates he has observed in televised debates. The interview is one of many recent attempts by the president to ease Americans’ fears following the Paris attacks and the shootings by a radicalized Muslim couple in San Bernardino, California on Dec. 2 that killed 14 people. A national survey by the Pew Research Center found 37 percent of respondents approve of the way Obama is handling terrorism, while 57 percent disapprove, the lowest rating he has received on the issue. In his year-end news conference before leaving for a two-week vacation in Hawaii, Obama urged Americans to stay vigilant against homegrown threats while not allowing themselves to become terrorized or divided. “Now on our side, I think that there is a legitimate criticism of what I’ve been doing and our administration has been doing in the sense that we haven’t ... on a regular basis ... described all the work that we’ve been doing for more than a year now to defeat ISIL,” he said, using an acronym used to describe ISIS. Asked if he would consider instating a no-fly zone in Syria, as Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has suggested, Obama said such a move would not serve to counter ISIS since the militant group does not have an air force. Obama also used the interview to criticize Republican frontrunner Donald Trump for exploiting the fear of blue-collar men who have had trouble adjusting to recent economic and demographic changes. Obama said Trump is exploiting their “anger, frustration, fear.”“Some of it justified but just misdirected. I think somebody like Mr. Trump is taking advantage of that. That’s what he’s exploiting during the course of his campaign,” Obama said.

Iraqi army readies for operation to retake Ramadi
Reuters, Baghdad Monday, 21 December 2015/Iraq’s armed forces will start an operation to retake the western city of Ramadi from ISIS militants very soon, army chief of staff Lt. General Othman al-Ghanemi told state TV on Monday. “There is an ongoing operation to control a sector in preparation of the onslaught on the city center within the coming hours, God willing,” he said. Iraqi intelligence estimates the number of ISIS militants who are entrenched in the center of Ramadi, capital of Anbar province, at between 250 and 300. Meanwhile, ISIS militants are preventing civilians from leaving Ramadi ahead of an attack planned by the Iraqi army to retake the western city that the militants captured in May, an Iraqi Defence Ministry spokesman said on Monday. “There are families that managed to escape the gangs of Daesh,” the spokesman, Naseer Nuri, told Reuters, using a local derogatory name for the group. “There is intelligence information from inside the city that they are preventing families from leaving; they plan to use them as human shields,” he added, without indicating the number of those who had managed to flee. Iraqi military planes on Sunday dropped leaflets on Ramadi, asking residents to leave within 72 hours and indicating safe routes for their exit.

U.N. works to ensure Libya unity govt security
AFP, Tripoli Monday, 21 December 2015/U.N. envoy Martin Kobler said on Sunday his team is in contact with security officials in Tripoli to ensure that Libya’s new unity government can operate safely from the capital. “The question... is how does the government go into Tripoli, and this is a question that we are negotiating with security actors on the ground,” he told AFP in a telephone interview from Tunis, where his United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has been relocated. “We hope to have an agreement with everybody -- the regular army, the regular police but also militias -- so that the government can go back, and of course UNSMIL has to go back to Tripoli also,” Kobler said. The German diplomat said that UNSMIL’s military adviser, General Paolo Serra of Italy, was in charge of the negotiations. Rival Libyan politicians signed a deal on Thursday in the Moroccan resort of Skhirat to form a unity government despite opposition on both sides. Kobler told AFP that the U.N. Security Council would vote next week on a resolution to recognize the new government as “the sole legitimate authority” in Libya. Around 80 of 188 lawmakers from Libya’s internationally recognized parliament and 50 of 136 members of the rival Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) signed the deal, participants said. It calls for a 17-member government, headed by businessman Fayez el-Sarraj as premier, based in the Libyan capital. A presidential council would also serve for a transitional period of two years until legislative elections. Libya has had rival administrations since August 2014, when an Islamist-backed militia alliance overran Tripoli, forcing the government to take refuge in the east. The country has been gripped by chaos and security problems since its 2011 uprising that toppled longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi, with a multitude of armed factions battling for territory and control of its oil wealth. None of Libya’s militias - including the Fajr Libya alliance which controls Tripoli - has announced its position on the Skhirat agreement.

Iran: Changes to U.S. visa waiver program contradict nuke deal
The Associated Press, Tehran Sunday, 20 December 2015/Iran's deputy foreign minister says changes to a U.S. visa waiver program that now impose travel restrictions on those who visit Iran contradict the landmark nuclear agreement between Tehran and world powers. The U.S. recently tightened security requirements of its visa waiver program, which allows citizens of 38 countries to travel to the U.S. without visas. Now, people from those countries who have traveled to Iran, Iraq, Syria and Sudan in the past five years must obtain visas to enter the U.S. Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told state TV late Sunday that the nuclear deal bars policies intended to adversely affect normalization of trade and economic relations with Iran. Araghchi said the new visa requirement would negatively affect economic, cultural, scientific and tourism relations with Iran.

Yemen Truce Fragile as Saudi Intercepts Rebel Missile
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 21/15/A collapsing ceasefire between Yemen's warring parties was to be extended Monday night, as fighting persisted in the north and the rebels vowed more missile attacks on Saudi targets. The truce was set to be renewed for one week, a day after the Saudi-backed government and Iran-backed rebels wrapped up peace talks in Switzerland without a breakthrough. The six days of closed-door meetings were strained by repeated violations of a coinciding ceasefire aimed at calming tensions between loyalists and the rebels who control Sanaa. On Monday, clashes continued in the north of Yemen, while there was a lull in fighting in the south, even outside third city Taez under seige from rebels, pro-government forces said. Ten rebels were killed as loyalists pressed their offensive in Nihm, 40 kilometers (25 miles) outside the capital, they said.
Loyalists also advanced towards the Saudi border post of Baqa in northern Jawf province. The Saudi-led coalition backing the loyalists since March bombed rebel positions in Khawlan, east of Sanaa, witnesses said. A halt to the violence is sorely needed in the Arabian Peninsula's poorest nation, where the U.N. says fighting since March has killed thousands of people and left about 80 percent of the population needing humanitarian aid. U.N. special envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed announced in Bern on Sunday that a new round of talks would be held on January 14. The conflict has escalated dramatically since Saudi-led air strikes began in March, with more than 5,800 people killed and 27,000 wounded since then, according to U.N. figures. The Huthis, a Shiite minority from Yemen's north, seized Sanaa last year and then advanced south to the second city of Aden, forcing President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi to flee to Saudi Arabia in March. Following territorial gains by loyalist troops backed by the coalition, Hadi returned to Aden in November after six months in exile in the neighboring oil-rich kingdom.
Saudi intercepts missile
Before dawn Monday, Saudi Arabia intercepted a missile fired from Yemen into the kingdom's southern Jazan district, the coalition said, after a missile killed three civilians two days earlier. Clashes have been common along the border with Saudi Arabia, where rebel strikes have killed more than 80 people since March, when the coalition campaign in support of the government began. Monday's attack came a day after a spokesman for forces allied to the Huthi rebels vowed to intensify missile attacks on Saudi targets. Brigadier General Sharaf Luqman said "300 Saudi military and vital targets" had been chosen. The rebels and their allies still possess "about 60 to 70 missiles, including Tochka missiles," Yemeni army sources say, despite coalition claims to have neutralized their ballistic capabilities. The Huthis' political bureau in a statement saluted "the missile strikes that inflicted unprecedented losses on the enemy" and criticized the United Nations for "not being serious in its efforts to end the aggression."Arab diplomats noted "international pressure" to end fighting in Yemen. "Permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, including the United States, are pressing all warring parties in Yemen to end hostilities," one said. "Washington has led intense contact with countries of the Arab coalition, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, to support a permanent ceasefire in Yemen," another diplomat said. An Iranian spokesman said on Monday that diplomatic efforts were underway to open "direct dialogue" between regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia to resolve regional issues, which include the Yemen conflict.

China Landslide Leaves 91 Missing
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 21/15/Some 91 people were missing Monday after a huge landslide caused by illegal soil dumping buried more than 30 factory and residential buildings in a sea of mud, China's second industrial disaster in four months. Witnesses of the landslide late Sunday morning described a mass of red earth and mud racing towards an industrial park in the city of Shenzhen in "huge waves" before burying or crushing homes and factories, twisting some of them into grotesque shapes. Drone footage showed chocolate-colored mud had ploughed through and over buildings and tossed aside trucks like discarded toys. One weeping migrant worker told how he lost contact with 16 friends or family members after his home was buried. The landslide covers an area of 380,000 square meters -- about 60 football fields -- in many areas more than 10 meters thick, said Liu Qingsheng, the vice mayor of the city bordering Hong Kong, in a press conference Monday. "It is the first time in China that we have seen a landslide on this scale," said Liu Guonan of the China Academy of Railway Sciences.
"The soil on the slope is very high in water content so it's hard to even walk across it -- people's feet sink into it," he added. There were 91 people missing as of 9:00 am (0100 GMT) Monday, according to officials from the city's emergency office cited by the Shenzhen Evening News. The landslide was caused by the improper storage of waste soil from construction sites, according to the official newspaper of the Ministry of Land and Resources.The soil was allegedly illegally stored in heaps 100 meters (330 feet) high at an old quarry site and turned to mud during heavy rain Sunday morning, the state-run Global Times reported. Industrial accidents are common in China, with safety regulations often overlooked due to corruption. An explosion in August in the port city of Tianjin that killed nearly 200 people was blamed on improperly stored chemicals. In the Shenzhen incident, about 900 people were moved out of harm's way before the landslide struck. Four people have been rescued, of whom three had minor injuries. Rescue operations were slowed by numerous obstacles, including continued rain, low visibility overnight, and mud, Ao Zhuoqian, a member of the city's fire brigade, told the official Xinhua news agency. "Seeing the scene now, of course I feel sad," said Wen Yanchang, 28, who was amidst a group of around 100 people watching construction trucks start clearing the landslide. "It's unimaginable because I live near here but at the time I didn't hear it happening," he said. Nearly 3,000 armed police and firefighters had been deployed to help with the rescue but "still had not made sizable further progress", a China National Radio report said. A woman surnamed Hu told the Shenzhen Evening News Sunday that she saw her father buried by earth in his own truck. Photos published by Xinhua showed victims wrapped in green blankets sleeping on mattresses and eating instant noodles. He Weiming, a migrant worker at a temporary shelter, said he had lost contact with 16 friends and family members, including his parents, wife and two children, and had made dozens of phone calls to try to find them. All went unanswered. "When my brother and I drove out in the morning to go collect garbage, our home was still fine, but when we came back... the house had been buried in mud -– you couldn’t even see the roof of our four-meter-high sheet metal house," he told an online news site run by Tencent -- weeping and flipping through photos of his children on his cellphone. "There are many other homes around mine -– I don't know if others escaped." The slide ruptured a natural gas pipeline and triggered an explosion heard about four kilometers (2.5 miles) away, Xinhua said.
Nearby gas stations have stopped supplying the pipeline and no gas leaks have been found, the Global Times cited the local fire department as saying. A landslide last month that engulfed 27 homes in rural Zhejiang province killed 38 people.

How the Saudis Can Actually Fight Terrorism
By Editorial Board/Bloomberg View
Saudi Arabia's announcement that it will create a Muslim-nation coalition against terrorism was greeted with faint praise and loud skepticism, and with reason. It turns out that Pakistan had no idea it was part of the alliance, and Afghanistan and Indonesia are only contemplating joining. No Shiite-majority states have been invited. And even by standards of international diplomacy, the Saudi statement was vague: It said nothing about what the partners would do, or whether any military action was contemplated. All this suggests the pact is little more than a face-saving initiative by a country that has killed and wounded thousands of civilians through its air campaign in neighboring Yemen, cut back its effort to fight Islamic State, and keeps fueling Middle Eastern tensions through its public feud with Iran. If the Saudis are serious about combating global Islamic extremism, however, there are many useful steps they could take -- beginning by cleaning their own house. For decades, private Saudi money and influence has gone toward creating mosques and schools across the Muslim world that indoctrinate young people into Wahhabism, the Saudi extremist Islamic doctrine. The Saudi influence on terrorists extends to Europe as well. After the Charlie Hebdo attacks in Paris last January, French legislators considered a law to ban foreign funding of fundamentalist mosques. Austria has such a law.  While there's little government financing for the export of Wahhabism, the Saudis could do more to stem the flow of private money to "charities" linked to terrorism whose operators the Saudi government shields from prosecution. The kingdom also harbors individuals and companies sanctioned by the U.S. for aiding terrorist organizations. Saudi Arabia could crack down on extremist clerics at home, and not just those who explicitly back Islamic State. Hateful ideology is so prevalent in the kingdom, it's no wonder that at least 2,500 Saudis have joined Islamic State. Saudi leaders should also fulfill their promise to remove from state-issued textbooks passages so intolerant -- including instruction on how best to execute heretics and homosexuals -- that Islamic State has downloaded them for children in its territories. As it begins a campaign against extremism, Saudi Arabia should end its crackdown on free speech. One law, for example, equates open demonstrations and insults to the state as terrorist acts. The blogger Raif Badawi, who was awarded the Andrei Sakharov Prize for Human Rights just last week, has been sentenced to 10 years in prison and 1,000 lashes for merely calling for moderation. Saudi Arabia could also fight terrorism by redoubling its diplomatic efforts to make peace with the Houthi rebels in Yemen. That country's continuing disintegration makes it a hotbed for terrorist activity. At the least, the Saudis need to stop indiscriminately bombing Yemeni civilian areas. Finally, Saudi Arabia should fulfill its obligation to provide air support and financial aid for the fight against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. It now averages only a single token airstrike per month.
Saudi leaders have already pledged to undertake many of these measures. In the so-called Jedda Communique of September 2014, they swore to "cut off the resources for terrorists" and become a "model" for addressing extremism. That's a promise they can make good on all by themselves.
To contact the senior editor responsible for Bloomberg View’s editorials: David Shipley at davidshipley@bloomberg.net.
Editorials are written by the Bloomberg View editorial board. Read more.

Moderate Islam' Isn't Working
Cheryl Benard/The National Interest/Decem,ber 21/15
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/moderate-islam-isnt-working-14693
"Revisiting our ‘strengthen the moderates’ strategy, I now believe that while it was basically sensible, it was off track in two critical ways."
20 December 2015 -- Over the past decade, the prevailing thinking has been that radical Islam is most effectively countered by moderate Islam. The goal was to find religious leaders and scholars and community ‘influencers’—to use the lingo of the counter-radicalization specialists—who could explain to their followers and to any misguided young people that Islam is a religion of peace, that the term jihad refers mainly to the individual’s personal struggle against temptation and for moral betterment, and that tolerance and interfaith cooperation should prevail. The presence of local Muslim luminaries, taking the lectern to announce that what had just happened bore no relation to true Islam, has become part of the ritual following any terrorist incident in a Western country.
As director of the RAND Initiative for Middle Eastern Youth, I was an early proponent of this approach. It assumed two things: first, that because of a lack of education, or poverty or other handicaps, many Muslims had developed an incomplete or incorrect understanding of their own religion; and second, that the extremists were so much louder and had backing from various maleficent sources, and therefore were gaining larger audiences. The task therefore was to help moderate Muslims spread the word. Multiple and expensive programs were launched to fund religious instruction, radio and television shows, community outreach efforts and more.
With a track record of well over a decade, it does not seem as though this is working. Even granted that an undertaking of this magnitude—shaping the way in which a world religion sees itself—takes time, it’s unfortunately more than just a matter of progress being slow.
Incontrovertibly, things are getting worse. We now have ISIS, a magnification of Al Qaeda. We have vicious branches springing up in nearly every part of the world. We have thousands of radical recruits streaming into Syria from Europe and the United States. We have Paris. We have San Bernardino.
Revisiting our ‘strengthen the moderates’ strategy, I now believe that while it was basically sensible, it was off track in two critical ways that could do us in. Our criteria for defining a moderate were too simplistic, and we missed a key concept that arguably should have been our mantra instead: integration.
In our definition of Muslim moderates, we basically only had one red line. If a person disavowed violence and terrorism, he or she was a moderate. But this is not enough. You can eschew terrorism while still harboring attitudes of hostility and alienation that in turn become the breeding ground for extremism and the safe harbor for extremists. What we lumped together as moderates includes what we might better have termed aggressive traditionalists, people who believe that Muslims living in the West must struggle to remain external to Western values and lifestyles, and should owe little or no loyalty to Western institutions and persons. They might be against violence, but they are also against integration.
Consider San Bernardino. Along with grief and anger, many of us felt frankly baffled. Why would a young couple—earning a good income, living in sunny California, raising an infant daughter—do such a thing? How could the husband, Farook, slaughter in cold blood the people who had been his colleagues, had organized a baby shower, had tried to befriend him? His former cubicle-mate relates how he tried to connect with him. Knowing that restoring old cars was Farook’s hobby, he had attempted to engage his taciturn colleague on this neutral topic, only to be continuously rebuffed. Why did Farook hate America, the country of his birth, the country that had taken in his immigrant parents, accommodated his religion by giving him time off to go on hajj, and readily issued a visa so he could bring home his murderous Pakistani bride? “Why do they hate us” – this question marked the popular response to 9-11 on the part of the American public. It was dismissed by the experts as naïve, but it turns out that this question was spot on and needs pursuing.
Farook, we are told, prayed twice daily at a nearby mosque and studied the Quran there over multiple years. His imam has pronounced himself equally baffled by his acolyte’s behavior. The authorities seem confident that the mosque had no connection to the terrorist plan—but still, we have to wonder about all those hours Farook spent there, all the Friday sermons he heard, the atmosphere he must have absorbed. There are only two possibilities. Either this moderate mosque had no influence on him at all, or it contributed in some way—however unintentionally—to his slide into murder.
If we take a closer look at ‘moderate Islam’ we find that one slice of it—the ‘aggressive traditionalist’ slice—incites not violence against the West, but rejection of Western values, modern life and integration. It demands of its followers that they be in the West but not of it, that they maintain emotional, social and intellectual separation. This describes Farook and Tashfeen, who went to great pains to harden their hearts against the people in whose midst they lived.
We can assume that this mindset only leads to further radicalization and violence in a small minority of cases. However, even short of that, a culture of self-alienation has negative effects. It can cause individuals to fail or flounder in their careers, because their standoffishness and self-marginalization prevent them from being true team members. That, in turn, can lead to feelings of anger, disappointment and frustration, as people who have segregated themselves now feel that they are being excluded and discriminated against—a vicious circle.
Divided loyalties can cause individuals to stay silent when they notice suspicious activity in their neighborhood or family or social circle. In recent days there has been much discussion of how we as a society must avoid marginalizing our Muslim fellow citizens. But it is at least equally important to address the matter of the self-marginalization of a particular subset of Muslim fellow citizens.
I will start with some examples from my own doorstep, Northern Virginia. A Muslim American friend of mine works for a social service agency, where it is his task to find jobs for Muslim immigrants, get them off the dole and help them integrate. Regularly, he shares with me his exasperation about the counterproductive advice mosque leaders dispense to his clients. For example, when he finally landed jobs for a group of Somali women immigrants—no mean feat as they spoke almost no English and had few developed skills—the ladies thanked him but said they had to check with their imam. That gentleman promptly nixed their careers in the hospital laundry facility when he learned that they would not be permitted to wear hijab. The pragmatic reason for this rule—flowing fabric would get caught in the machinery and pose a safety hazard– was of no interest to him. Other clients were counseled to refuse jobs at 7-11 (sells beer), as security guards (they would need to trim their beards) and with a moving company (one could not be sure that some boxes didn’t contain alcohol). This has been very frustrating for my friend, the more so because he himself is a scholar and a professor who immigrated from a conservative Muslim country, and he is strongly of the view that none of these pronouncements are even theologically correct.
Maybe it’s just one lone stodgy imam in Virginia? The fact is, we don’t know. Currently in the United States, anyone can register as a non-profit and open a mosque, and anyone can declare himself an imam. And there’s another issue. The current mosque scenery in the U.S. is such that many and perhaps most mainstream, modern-minded and well-integrated moderate Muslims don’t go to them. Ask your Muslim friends about this. They will complain about the pronounced ethnic or national nature of their local mosques, that this one caters only to Pakistanis and is hostile to Afghans or vice versa, or is Arab or Somali and unwelcoming to anyone else. Another issue is that the section set aside for women is often unacceptable and even insulting, little more than a damp basement or a section of the utility room. I myself sat through a four hour fatiha or memorial service in a mosque in New Jersey, where the women’s section consisted of folding chairs in the laundry room, facing the washing machine as though it were Mecca, while the men prayed upstairs in a nice large room on Persian carpets. Modern families won’t put up with this, which helps explain why many attend the mosque only for the unavoidable funeral or memorial observation. It’s not a problem for them; they can pray at home, and marriages are typically held at home or in a hotel anyway, but on a societal level the absence of modern Muslims from the American mosque is consequential. These are the people who could serve as role models and opinion leaders, and as board members exercising ‘quality control.’ Instead, that terrain is left to the ultra-conservative, the old fashioned and the cultural separatists.
Similarly, this is who controls the online space. We are all aware of the dangers of online radicalization and extremist Web sites are subject to scrutiny, but the purportedly moderate Web sites are considered harmless and ignored—a mistake. A few years ago, I began tracking the religious advice provided to Diaspora Muslims online. Specialized Web sites cater to a target audience of assorted dislocated persons: recent arrivals to Europe, Canada and the United States, discontented teenagers and young adults from immigrant families, converts and floundering second generation German or Dutch or French or American sort-of-citizens who just haven’t found their footing. In a Dear-Abby format, they address day-to-day problems related to family, love, school or the workplace—as they claim, from an Islamic perspective. They are not overtly political, and they don’t incite violence. What they incite is estrangement. The common thread of the advice: don’t trust the ‘unbelievers,’ don’t befriend them, don’t care about them, don’t adapt to their habits and ways and don’t feel loyal to any of their institutions. Go to ‘their’ high school, but don’t make friends with Christian or Jewish classmates. Get your diploma, but don’t go to the graduation party.
Here is a typical piece of advice, issued to a young man who wants to know if it’s OK to play basketball during recess with non-Muslim fellow pupils.
“Allah has forbidden the believers to take the kaafireen as friends, and he has issued a stern warning against doing that. . . Elsewhere Allah states that taking them as friends incurs the wrath of Allah and his eternal punishment. . . One of the forms of making friends with the kaafirs which is forbidden is taking them as friends and companions, mixing with them and eating and playing with them…You should not sit and chat and laugh with them. . . it is not permissible for a Muslim to feel any love in his heart towards the enemies of Allah who are in fact his enemies too.”
Here is the reply received by a Muslim housewife looking for daytime companionship with the woman next door:
“Is it allowed for a Muslim woman to be friends with a non-Muslim woman who is very decent?”
“Praise be to Allah. Visiting kaafirs in order to have a good time with them is not permitted, because it is obligatory to hate them and shun them.”
And on it goes, for question after question. Can you applaud after your children’s school performance? No, because that would mean imitating the behavior and customs of the unbelievers. An engineer who works for an airline is told that he must not service the in-flight entertainment devices, because music and video clips are unIslamic and he should have nothing to do with them. If he can’t refuse this task, he must change jobs. A recent college graduate reports that his school ran a seminar on how to land a good job. It was important to offer the interviewer a firm handshake and look them in the eye, he had been told. But what if his interviewer is female? He is sternly told that he needs to find an all-male workplace. Those are a bit rare in Western countries. . . but then, the religious authority behind islamqa, it turns out, is a cleric in Saudi Arabia.
The harmfulness of such a mindset is obvious, but what is the remedy? Several steps come to mind:
1) Establish a vetting and a certification process for Muslim clerics in the United States, as a requirement before someone can head a mosque, run a religious education or a youth program, officiate at religious ceremonies, or term himself an imam. This will raise the quality of religious information and instruction being offered to the community, and bring greater transparency. There are precedents for this. In Austria, for example, after many disturbing experiences with Islamic religion teachers and complaints from parents, the government decided to set up its own theological certification program. In Bosnia and many other Muslim-majority countries, training of imams is overseen by the government, and in many places, Friday sermons are either vetted or centrally provided to all mosques to guarantee correct substance.
2) Require new immigrants and refugees to formally accept some basic rules of the road' that describe daily life and values in the United States. As Americans, we have long felt superior to the Europeans in our ability to create a “salad bowl” of diverse cultures, beliefs and traditions instead of the cramped xenophobia we often attributed to them. And for many decades there was truth to that. But today, it may turn out that the Europeans, forced to think about how to safely absorb a huge number of suddenly arrived strangers, are moving ahead of us. They are working to articulate relatively elaborate social compacts that articulate the core values and behaviors they expect refugees and immigrants to take note of, acknowledge and undertake to follow. This ranges from language acquisition to acceptance of women’s equality and non-segregation, tolerance of (though not, of course, mandatory participation in) the modern Western lifestyle such as alcohol consumption and habits of dress. Designed to minimize conflict on the neighborhood level, these rules of engagement serve as notice that European society is willing to broaden and embrace, but not deform or restrict itself for the new arrivals. Whether this is successful will remain to be seen, but it’s worth trying.
3) Find ways for true Muslim moderates, progressives and secularists to have a larger voice in expressing the views and values of the community, one that is more reflective of social reality. A typical documentary or news report about Muslims in America is illustrated with images of men bent forward in prayer in a mosque, and women in headscarves or even full hijab. As with other faiths practiced in our country, the spectrum of American Islam too is considerably broader, including the observant, the non-observant and the occasionally observant, with multiple levels of assimilation, integration and mutual influence.
**Cheryl Benard has written widely on political Islam. Her most recent book Eurojihad, Cambridge University Press, October 2014, predicted increased Islamist violence in the West.

Zarif: Iran sees 'mostly negative signals' from US
Laura Rozen/Al-Monitor/December 21/15/
New York — Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, speaking to Al-Monitor in New York following a UN Security Council meeting on Syria Dec. 18, said it remains to be seen if US-Iran relations would ease in the wake of the implementation of the Iran nuclear deal as early as next month. But he said Iran was disturbed by recent proposed changes to the US visa waiver program that could require European travelers who had visited Iran to apply for a visa to travel to the United States, and he had been discussing the matter with US Secretary of State John Kerry
“We will have to wait and see,” Zarif told Al-Monitor in an interview at Iran’s ambassadorial residence in New York on Dec. 18, regarding whether US-Iran ties would ease up a bit after the United States lifts sanctions when the Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), is implemented as early as January. “Unfortunately, there are mixed signals coming from Washington, mostly negative signals, including the visa waiver program restrictions” proposed in a congressional omnibus spending bill Dec. 18, Zarif said. “Now we await for the decision by the administration on how it wants to bring itself into compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA.”
“I have had discussions with Secretary Kerry and others on this for the past several days since it’s become known that this was the intention,” Zarif said. “And I wait for them to take action.”Predominantly Shiite Iran, which is considered a mortal enemy of the Islamic State (IS), an extremist Sunni terrorist group, and is engaged in fighting it in Iraq and Syria, has nothing to do with recent IS-linked terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, California, Zarif said, calling the proposed changes to the US visa waiver program targeting travelers to Iran “absurd.”“Now it is clear that this new legislation is simply absurd because no Iranian nor anybody who visited Iran had anything to do with the tragedies that have taken place in Paris or in San Bernardino or anywhere else,” Zarif said. “But they’re being the targets. I think it discredits those who pass these legislations, those who adopt them and those who implement them more than anything else. And it sends a very bad signal to the Iranians that the US is bent on hostile policy toward Iran, no matter what.” Zarif, speaking after the conclusion of a third round of meetings of some 20 nations and international bodies that comprise the International Syria Support Group, said he appreciated that the international Syria diplomatic process had brought Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia into direct discussions again, which Iran has sought but Riyadh had rebuffed until October. But he expressed misgivings about the intentions of some members of the international body about whether they really supported a diplomatic resolution to the Syria conflict.
He confirmed that Iran has had sideline bilateral conversations with Saudi Arabia in recent weeks, but he said the interactions were brief.
“There have been some short conversations, very welcomed though,” Zarif said. “And I’ve had a couple of exchanges with my Saudi counterpart [Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir]. Iran’s ambassador has had a couple of exchanges in the yard. We hope that is a good beginning. But that's not even near where we should be.”“We have always been ready to engage with our neighbors, and we believe that our neighbors are our priority,” Zarif said. “And once our Saudi friends are ready to engage in serious dialogue, they will find Iran to be … ready.”As to the considerable efforts of Kerry and the Obama administration, as well as Russia and the European Union, to persuade Saudi Arabia to include Iran in direct talks on regional matters, Zarif did not offer Washington too much credit. “The fact that people allowed certain players to exclude others from this process was the anomaly, not having a table around which all the significant players can sit and discuss,” Zarif said. “So, I mean, I have to say that what happened in the past [keeping Iran out of the Geneva meetings on Syria] was the anomaly, not what is happening now.”On Syria, Zarif said he believed the international community was becoming more “realistic” about trying to facilitate a dialogue among the Syrian regime and opposition “without setting preconditions” — presumably referring to when in a transition process Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would be required to leave power.
“I think as soon as people realized that this was not possible, that if you wanted to find a political solution to the Syrian nightmare, you needed to be able to sit down at the table without setting preconditions. And I think that that's the realization,” Zarif said. “It’s not kicking the can down the road, but rather being realistic. That you need to start negotiating, and through the negotiation process, achieve the outcome; not achieve the outcome before the negotiation process.”“Of course there are disagreements,” Zarif said. “We have disagreements about who [the] terrorists are. Unfortunately, reincarnations of al-Qaeda, Daesh [IS] and Jabhat al-Nusra are being used by some of our friends and neighbors as oppositions rather than as terrorists. … And we certainly do have differences about how the political process should lead to a national unity government.”“I think another area of possible disagreement is that some of our friends continue to believe that there is a military solution,” Zarif said. “I think that’s an illusion. Of course there has to be a military element to this, but it has to be a political solution. And then we need to engage in a comprehensive approach to settle the problem of these extremist groups.”
A transcript of the interview, conducted by Al-Monitor’s managing editor, slightly edited for clarity, follows below.
Al-Monitor: Today was a very productive day. Was the decision not to mention Assad in the resolution the outcome of simply an agreement to disagree, thereby kicking the can down the road, or is there an understanding beyond that of Syrians being free to "decide the future of Syria" in internationally supervised elections? Zarif: Well, I think what's important is for the international community to try to facilitate a dialogue among Syrians rather than to try to dictate the terms of that dialogue. Over the past 4½ years, or at least after the first few months where everybody thought on both sides that this would be over within a few months, after that for the past almost four years, the attempt to put an end to this has been thwarted because of an inclination to determine the outcome of the negotiations before the negotiations started, almost as a precondition for the negotiations. And so I think as soon as people realized that this was not possible, that if you wanted to find a political solution to the Syrian nightmare, you needed to be able to sit down at the table without setting preconditions. And I think that that's the realization. It’s not kicking the can down the road, but rather being realistic. That you need to start negotiating, and through the negotiation process, achieve the outcome; not achieve the outcome before the negotiation process.
Now the outcome is what the Syrian people will decide it to be, not what those of us should think in this room, in a nice hotel room in New York or in Vienna or anywhere else, decide for the Syrians. And I think that that's important. Of course there are disagreements. We have disagreements about who [the] terrorists are. Unfortunately, reincarnations of al-Qaeda, Daesh [IS] and Jabhat al-Nusra are being used by some of our friends and neighbors as oppositions rather than as terrorists. So that is something to be sorted out. And we certainly do have differences about how the political process should lead to a national unity government. Ah, we have presented our views in a rather transparent way, and we hope others are prepared to do the same, and at the same time, help the Syrians get together and put an end to this bloodshed. I think another area of possible disagreement is that some of our friends continue to believe that there is a military solution. I think that’s an illusion. Of course there has to be a military element to this, but it has to be a political solution. And then we need to engage in a comprehensive approach to settle the problem of these extremist groups.
Al-Monitor: Speaking of these terrorist groups, the UNSC [United Nations Security Council] resolution bars terrorist groups from the negotiation process. Is there a consensus on how these groups are defined? You made a reference today [Dec. 18] in your op-ed in The Guardian that there are those “pushing for self-proclaimed al-Qaeda affiliates to have a prominent place at the negotiating table.” How would you define such groups?
Zarif: Well, I mean it’s not that difficult. There are groups that have al-Qaeda affiliations, … have issued statements that they sympathize with al-Qaeda or basically branches of al-Qaeda and Syria. They cannot, all of a sudden, be baptized as legitimate opposition groups. These are terrorist organizations usually composed of mostly non-Syrians. It’s simply not acceptable to try to just repackage them and present them as democratic opposition. Al-Monitor: Following on that, how would you define what constitutes a legitimate opposition group that should be encouraged to enter the dialogue?
Zarif: Well, we have set a red line that Daesh [IS], Jabhat al-Nusra and other al-Qaeda affiliates would not be recognized as legitimate oppositions. So whoever is not among them and whoever is prepared to sit down and seek a political solution, if they meet the criteria, then that's the criteria. Unfortunately, people are trying to avoid that criteria from being set.
Al-Monitor: Has Iran been able to help with local cease-fire efforts to get more access for humanitarian aid into Syria?
Zarif: Well, we have in the past several years tried and, in cases, successfully to get humanitarian access, to get even temporary cease-fires for civilians to get out. Even in cases to get those combatants who did not want to engage in combat anymore out of areas under siege. So we think that's possible provided there is political will to engage in Syria’s work. Some people have made it a business of continuing to see bloodshed in Syria because that's politically useful for those who want to wage a propaganda campaign. It’s a very sad statement, and I’m very sorry to make this statement. But it is important for people to realize that they cannot make political mileage out of the misery of the Syrian people. And once that is the case, then we will try to work for whatever we can get. If it’s a localized cease-fire, if it’s a general cease-fire, if it’s a temporary humanitarian cease-fire. Whatever we can do, we need to do it in order to relieve the Syrians of the pain and suffering that they’ve been going through. Al-Monitor: When you were here in New York in the fall, you said that you’d been trying to get talks with the Saudis, but the Saudis did not accept, as of yet. After intense efforts by the US, among others, the US helped to persuade the Saudis to accept Iran being a part of the international Syria support group, to help get you both to the table. What is your view on this effort, and how have you seen the cooperation go during this past day and a half? Zarif: Well, we have always been ready to engage with our neighbors, and we believe that our neighbors are our priority. And once our Saudi friends are ready to engage in serious dialogue, they will find Iran to be ready. The fact that people allowed certain players to exclude others from this process was the anomaly, not having a table around which all the significant players can sit and discuss.
So, I mean, I have to say that what happened in the past [keeping Iran out of the Geneva meetings on Syria] was the anomaly, not what is happening now.”Al-Monitor: Your deputy, [Hossein Amir-] Abdollahian, was recently cited by Iranian media saying that there has been more Saudi and Iran talks as of late. Have you been able to advance that channel? Zarif: There have been some short conversations, very welcomed though. And I’ve had a couple of exchanges with my Saudi counterpart [Jubeir]. Iran’s ambassador has had a couple of exchanges in the yard. We hope that is a good beginning. But that's not even near where we should be. Al-Monitor: Have you been able to discuss the ongoing conflict in Yemen?
Zarif: No. We are trying to help, through the United Nations, in the negotiations, as they’re taking place in Geneva. We facilitated the negotiations, and we will continue to help with the negotiations that are undergoing right now. And it’s moving, I hope, in the right direction. Al-Monitor: On the nuclear deal, do you think the implementation and the US fulfilling its obligations under the JCPOA to lift sanctions will make for an easing in the chill in the US-Iran relations? Zarif: Well, we will have to wait and see. Unfortunately, there are mixed signals coming from Washington, mostly negative signals, including the visa waiver program restrictions that’s been adopted by the House and today by the Senate, which in our view are not in line with US obligations under JCPOA. Now we await for the decision by the administration on how it wants to bring itself into compliance with its obligations under JCPOA.
I have had discussions with Secretary Kerry and others on this for the past several days since it’s become known that this was the intention. And I wait for them to take action.
Well what's important is that the United States needs to send a signal to the Iranian people that it is prepared to modify its behavior and its policy vis-a-vis Iran. Now it is clear that this new legislation is simply absurd because no Iranian nor anybody who visited Iran had anything to do with the tragedies that have taken place in Paris or in San Bernardino or anywhere else. But they’re being the targets. I think it discredits those who pass these legislations, those who adopt them and those who implement them more than anything else. And it sends a very bad signal to the Iranians that the US is bent on hostile policy towards Iran, no matter what.
Al-Monitor: Since it sounds like Iran views this as a violation of the US commitments, will Iran take any corresponding actions?
Zarif: I mean we don’t care about what's happening within the US legal system. What's important is what the United States government, as the authority responsible before its national law and in interstate relations, takes as its own course of action. I believe there are remedial measures that the US government can take, and it should take, in order to mitigate the negative consequences of this legislation and bring the United States into compliance with the JCPOA. So we are waiting for action to be taken. Al-Monitor: Following up on one more question on the Iran deal. One of the changes in Iran’s handling of the nuclear negotiations after President [Hassan] Rouhani’s election was the transfer of the nuclear file from the Supreme National Security Council to the Foreign Ministry. And mindful of the AEOI’s [Atomic Energy Organization of Iran] extensive role in the implementation of Iran’s commitments under the JCPOA, which Iranian government body is in charge of the implementation of the nuclear agreement? Zarif: Well, it’s an interagency process. The Foreign Ministry was responsible to lead the negotiations, but we always benefitted both from the expertise as well as from the actual political participation of our Atomic Energy Organization, particularly toward the last episodes of the negotiations. We had with the head of the agency, Dr. [Ali Akbar] Salehi, engaging his American counterpart, [Secretary of Energy Ernest] Moniz, in the negotiations, which proved to be extremely useful.
And now it is an interagency exercise in Iran with a body under the National Security Council that basically exercises oversight on the implementation of the JCPOA. So it’s a complicated process, but it is mostly because Iran’s actions to implement its side of the bargain will be verified by the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency]. It is important for us to make sure that the United States and Europe, particularly the United States, remain in compliance with their part of the obligations under the treaty. And that is why that oversight body exists in Iran to, to make sure that the United States is in compliance.
Al-Monitor: Turning directions a little bit, talking about Russia. Russia has surfaced as a strategic partner of Iran in the region. Mindful that your country’s current trade volume with Turkey is 10 times that of your trade with Russia, Iran has an obvious interest in maintaining good relations with both Ankara and Moscow. What, if any, steps are being taken by Iran to reduce tensions between Russia and Turkey?
Zarif: Well, we have tried to exercise restraint when it comes to statements that have been made. And we have tried to talk to our Turkish friends about statements that they are making about Iraq. We believe that the focus of attention has to be on fighting Daesh [IS] and terrorist organizations in Syria and in Iraq, rather than on attempts to divert attention from the actual problem, and that is extremism and terrorism in the region. So we certainly hope that the development in our region, both in the relations between Turkey and Russia, as well as in the relations between Turkey and Iraq, are contained. And we do not see further exacerbation of tension. Because any tension between regional players plays directly in the hands of Daesh [IS]. Al-Monitor: And one final question. There is a report in Al-Hayat about Jordan having submitted a list of 167 terrorist groups in Syria. According to this report, the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] and Hezbollah are on this list. Have you heard of this report?
Zarif: Well, Jordan had the responsibility of coordinating. So it compiled a list of various organizations that had been claimed by one or several countries to be considered as terrorist organizations. One or two actually tried to use this as a political ploy to score, in my view, rather childish political scores. And while there is unanimity on a number of organizations, like Daesh [IS] and [Jabhat al-] Nusra, and a very large majority, including certain organizations like Ahrar al-Sham, which were unfortunately invited to the meeting in Saudi Arabia as terrorist organizations. There were one or two that just put certain names in there, and that list has been officially withdrawn now. So there is no list with organizations or entities that are actually in Syria under request of the Syrian government fighting Daesh [IS] and terrorist groups that is around. It is a very sad situation where people, instead of focusing their attention on known terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda, Daesh [IS] and Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham and Jaish al-Islam — organizations that everybody considers to be extremist terrorist organizations — are trying to use them as leverage or play games or try to bargain. I mean, as if they are announcing that these guys are all allies.
And we want to use every possible avenue in order to keep them alive. That sends a very bad signal, but I think it is being addressed. There are no such lists. If anybody is reporting that a list exists, I could say categorically. And if anybody kept any record of the meeting, the record of the meeting indicates that any possibilities have now been officially withdrawn.

US, Iran move to avert firestorm over visa waiver program changes
Mohammad Ali Shabani/Al-Monitor/December 21/15/
A potential firestorm with Iran over controversial changes to the visa waiver program by Congress on Dec. 18 appears to have been averted. Barring nationals of Iran, Iraq, Sudan and Syria as well as travelers to these countries in the past five years from visa-free entry to the United States, the changes have been criticized by civil rights advocates, lobbying groups and the European Union. Some of the criticism focuses on Article 29 of the July 14 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which reads, "The EU and its Member States and the United States, consistent with their respective laws, will refrain from any policy specifically intended to directly and adversely affect the normalisation of trade and economic relations with Iran." Of note, changes to the visa waiver program would effectively bar European, Australian, Japanese and South Korean tourists and business travelers to Iran from visa-free entry to the United States. Iranian officials have in recent days stepped up rhetoric against the changes to the visa waiver program, with Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif calling them “absurd” in an interview with Al-Monitor Dec. 18. Separately, Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran had consulted with European countries on countering the new law, as it “certainly affects economic, tourist, scientific and cultural exchanges with Iran and it contravenes the nuclear deal." Araghchi also warned that “if this law is applied, we will put forward a request to the Joint Commission, because the law goes against the nuclear accord," referring to the body overseeing implementation of the JCPOA.
However, following Zarif’s recent trip to New York for the latest session of the International Syria Support Group, a potential clash between the United States and other signatories to the JCPOA appears to have been averted. In a Dec. 19 letter to Zarif obtained by Al-Monitor, US Secretary of State John Kerry writes, “First, I want to confirm to you that we remain fully committed to the sanctions lifting provided for under the JCPOA. We will adhere to the full measure of our commitments, per the agreement. Our team is working hard to be prepared and as soon as we reach implementation day we will lift appropriate sanctions.” In the letter, Kerry also outlines pathways for how to solve the dilemmas posed by H.R. 158, passed earlier this month and largely incorporated into the spending bill passed Dec. 18, saying, “I am also confident that the recent changes in visa requirements passed in Congress, which the Administration has the authority to waive, will not in any way prevent us from meeting our JCPOA commitments, and that we will implement them so as not to interfere with legitimate business interests of Iran.” Beyond alluding to the White House potentially using its waiver authority provided under the new legislation, Kerry says, “We have a number of potential tools available to us, including multiple entry ten-year business visas,” and also “programs for expediting business visas.”
Iranian sources indicated to Al-Monitor that communication between Tehran and Washington over the visa waiver program changes has been ongoing over the previous 10 days, with a total of at least three letters exchanged over this matter. Efforts to thwart H.R. 158 from torpedoing implementation of the JCPOA appear to have involved strong coordination between the State Department and the Treasury. Sanctions czar Adam Szubin on Dec. 17 publicly encouraged trade with Iran, stating that the "US will not stand in the way of business" consistent with the JCPOA. The timing and nature of Szubin’s statement is of particular significance, since the Treasury has so far dissuaded business dealings with Iran — at least pending the implementation date of the JCPOA. Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, which strenuously advocated against H.R. 158, told Al-Monitor, “The letter shows that the US government is taking the objections of the EU and the Iranians seriously, as the new visa waiver law does arguably violate the JCPOA. The measures listed by Kerry helps minimize that.” However, Parsi, whose organization particularly criticized H.R. 158’s potential impact on Iranian-Americans, added, “But it is not clear how these measures will undo the discriminatory characteristics of this law that singles out dual nationals solely on the basis of their nationality. That remains a major concern. It is a stark reminder that the process of sanctions relief will be quite challenging for the US, as Congress and other parts of the US government seek to undermine the JCPOA.”
Indeed, while Kerry is specific in his outlining of pathways for a win-win solution with Iran on the changes to the visa waiver program, it is unclear how the new legislation’s impact on Iranian dual nationals will be addressed. As the visa waiver program operates on the basis of reciprocity, the barring of visa waiver program member-state citizens of Iranian descent from visa-free entry to the United States could result in Americans of Iranian descent being denied entry to visa waiver program member states, including most of Europe and Japan. It is unclear whether the new legislation’s waiver authority granted to the White House will be put to use, and even in that scenario, whether it will prevent Iranian dual nationals from being relegated to second-class citizens. The challenge of how to deal with discrimination against Iranian dual nationals is compounded by Iranian law. Since Iran is not a party to the visa waiver program, and does not recognize dual nationality, it cannot fundamentally criticize the exclusion of Iranian dual nationals from the visa waiver program. Hence, it is unclear whether Iran is even politically inclined and able to advocate on behalf of its diaspora. In sum, while active diplomacy appears to have averted a firestorm pitting the United States against Iran and potentially other signatories to the JCPOA, it is yet unclear where Iranian dual nationals and foreign tourists to Iran will stand.

Is Saudi Arabia building an 'Islamic NATO?'
Fahad Nazer/Al-Monitor/December 21/15/
In Riyadh, shortly after midnight on Dec. 14, Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister of Saudi Arabia Prince Mohammed bin Salman surprised the world when he held a press conference — his first — in which he announced the formation of a new Islamic military coalition against terrorism. Predicated on the premise that Muslims have suffered more from terrorism than any other group, Mohammed argued that Islamic countries needed to transform the unilateral counterterrorism campaigns currently being carried out by more than 50 countries around the world into a collective effort to vanquish this “disease.”
While the timing of the announcement might lead some in the West to assume that it was in response to increasing calls from the international community — and especially the United States — for Islamic countries to "do more" in the fight against the terrorist organization known as the Islamic State (IS), Saudi Arabia and other Islamic countries may have a different rationale.
From their vantage point, this coalition might in fact be a reaction to what they perceive as the international community's (under US leadership) largely ineffective campaign against IS, which in their eyes, lacks a clear strategy and resolve and neglects the two main factors that have allowed IS to spread: Bashar al-Assad’s brutalization of Syria’s Sunni majority and Iran’s support of Shiite militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. It is not clear at this point whether the ultimate objective of this Saudi initiative is to create the Islamic equivalent of NATO, a formal military alliance with binding commitments from its member states. Nevertheless, the announcement is consistent with two prior decisions that suggested that while it is not rejecting the security framework agreed upon by the victorious powers following World War II and which became institutionalized in the United Nations Security Council, Saudi Arabia may be looking to lead alternative security frameworks.
The first decision was Saudi Arabia’s rejection of the United Nations Security Council seat it had won in the fall of 2013. The second was its announcement in March of this year that it would be leading an Arab military coalition in Yemen to restore the internationally recognized president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, who had been ousted from the capital Sanaa by Iranian-supported Houthi rebels in late 2014. Taken in total, these three decisions — the rejection of the Security Council seat, launching a military campaign in Yemen and leading an Islamic coalition against terrorism — indicate that there has been a paradigm shift in Saudi Arabia: It is one that has redefined how the kingdom views its role in the Middle East and broader Islamic world as well as how it views the role of the traditional guarantor of stability in the region, the United States.
For much of its modern history, Saudi Arabia has been known as a status quo state — one that used its oil wealth and eminent status in the Islamic world to mediate between warring countries and sometimes between warring factions within a state. Its objective has often been to maintain the political order through quiet behind-the-scenes diplomacy. However, the unprecedented turmoil that has gripped the Middle East in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, and which led to the ascendance of Saudi Arabia's biggest regional foe, Iran, and the emergence of its sworn enemy, IS, has compelled Saudi policymakers to adopt a more assertive foreign policy. This new Saudi thinking is also a response to the perception that the United States has elected to disengage from the Middle East and that even when it did decide to act, it seemed to lack a clear strategy; its critics argue that one example of this was its airstrikes against IS strongholds in Syria and Iraq.
While the Saudis still favor American weapons and are continuing to share intelligence and consult regularly with the United States, they seem to have concluded that the United States has differing threat perceptions than theirs. Saudi Arabia’s two most pressing foreign policy priorities, the conflicts in Yemen and Syria, do not seem to be US priorities. Just as importantly, as the Saudis continued to repeatedly express their concern about what they deemed to be Iran’s destructive role in the region, the United States signed a historic nuclear agreement with Iran that could pave the way for reintegrating it into the international community. While the United States is providing vital intelligence and logistical support to the Saudi-led Arab coalition in Yemen, the Saudis launched this unprecedented campaign after it became clear that the international community had no interest in taking forceful measures to reverse the Houthis’ military gains. The Saudis have succeeded in convincing 10 other Arab counties to support the ongoing campaign. The Yemen campaign is the ultimate expression of Saudi Arabia’s new, more assertive and independent foreign policy posture. Saudi Arabia stunned the international community when it declined its first-ever seat at the United Nations Security Council two years ago. The Saudis issued a strongly worded statement that maintained that the ongoing carnage in Syria and the stalled peace process between Israel and the Palestinians were “irrefutable evidence and proof of the inability of the Security Council to carry out its duties and responsibilities.” While out of character at the time, the decision, much like the Arab and Islamic military coalitions since, suggests that the Saudis had become increasingly frustrated with the US-led international community and had elected to forge their own alliances to protect their national interests.
In the days following the Dec. 14 announcement, Saudi civilian and military officials provided some details about the objectives of this coalition. While Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir suggested at a press conference in Paris that a joint force acting under the command of the operations center in Riyadh was a possibility, Saudi military spokesman Ahmed Assiri was later quoted as saying that the coalition would be more focused on “coordinating” its members ongoing efforts rather than establishing a joint force. However both Jubeir and Mohammed were unequivocal in saying that the coalition was not predicated on sectarian considerations, implying that sect would not determine the identity of its members or the terrorist groups that would be targeted by it. The defense minister made clear that the coalition would not only target Sunni terrorist groups such as IS but that it would go after all militant groups that are destabilizing the region. Both he and Jubeir also maintained that the member countries would have discretion in terms of the level of support they provide the coalition. Mohammed also stressed that the coalition would consult with the “legitimate” authorities in the countries involved and that it would coordinate with the international community. While these remarks suggested that the Islamic coalition would complement the US-led effort against IS, the notion that it may be intended to supplant it should be given consideration.
In the weeks and months to come, more details should emerge about what the mandate of the coalition is and how it is supposed to operate. Somewhat ominously, some reports in the Western press have suggested that officials from some of the key member countries have expressed surprise at their inclusion in the coalition. Nevertheless the Saudis did follow through with their decision to reject the UN seat and have managed to sustain the military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen for nine months, defying conventional wisdom in the process. Whether the Saudis will succeed in leading an even bigger coalition to fight the international community’s most daunting challenge — religiously inspired terrorism — remains to be seen.

Germans Stock Up on Weapons for Self-Defense
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/December 21/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7088/germany-weapons
The scramble to acquire weapons comes amid an indisputable nationwide spike in migrant-driven crime, including rapes of German women and girls on a shocking scale, as well as physical assaults, stabbings, home invasions, robberies and burglaries — in cities and towns throughout the country. German authorities, however, are going to great lengths to argue that the German citizenry's sudden interest in self-defense has nothing whatsoever to do with mass migration into the country, despite ample evidence to the contrary. The spike in violent crimes committed by migrants has been corroborated by a leaked confidential police report, which reveals that a record-breaking 38,000 asylum seekers were accused of committing crimes in the country in 2014. Analysts believe this figure — which works out to more than 100 crimes a day — is only a fragment: many crimes are not reported. "Anyone who asks for the reasons for the surge in weapons purchases encounters silence." — Süddeutsche Zeitung
Germans, facing an influx of more than one million asylum seekers from Africa, Asia and the Middle East, are rushing to arm themselves.
All across Germany, a country with some of the most stringent gun-control laws in Europe, demand is skyrocketing for non-lethal self-defense weapons, including pepper sprays, gas pistols, flare guns, electroshock weapons and animal repellants. Germans are also applying for weapons permits in record numbers.
The scramble to acquire weapons comes amid a migrant-driven surge in violent crimes — including rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults — in cities and towns throughout the country. German authorities, however, are going to great lengths to argue that the German citizenry's sudden interest in self-defense has nothing whatsoever to do with mass migration into the country, despite ample evidence to the contrary. In recent weeks, German newspapers have published dozens of stories with headlines such as: "Germany is Afraid — And Grabs for the Weapon," "Germans are Arming Themselves: The Demand for Weapons Explodes," "More and More People are Buying a Weapon," "Security: Hands Up!" "The Need for Security Increases," "Boom in Weapons Stores," and "Bavarians are Arming Themselves— Afraid of Refugees?"
The German daily newspaper Die Welt recently produced a video report about Germany's surge in sales of self-defense weapons, which was titled "The Weapons Business is Profiting from the Refugee Crisis." (Image source: Die Welt video screenshot) Since Germany's migration crisis exploded in August 2015, nationwide sales of pepper spray have jumped by 600%, according to the German newsmagazine, Focus. Supplies of the product are now completely sold out in many parts of the country and additional stocks will not become available until 2016. "Manufacturers and distributors say the huge influx of foreigners in recent weeks has apparently frightened many people," Focus reports. According to KH Security, a German manufacturer of self-defense products, demand is up by a factor of five, and sales in September 2015 — the month when the implications of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's open-door migration policy began to dawn on many Germans — were the highest since the company was founded 25 years ago. The company says there is an increased demand not only for self-defense weapons, but also for home alarm systems.
Another manufacturer of self-defense products, the Frankfurt-based company DEF-TEC Defense Technology, has reported a 600% increase in sales this fall. According to CEO Kai Prase: "Things took off beginning in September. Since then, our dealers have been totally overrun. We have never experienced anything like this in the 21 years of our corporate history. Fear: This is not rational. The important term is: 'refugee crisis.'"The same story is being repeated across Germany. According to the public broadcaster, Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk, citizens in Saxony can regularly be seen queuing up in large numbers waiting for gun shops to open. A store owner in the Saxon town of Pirna said he is now selling up to 200 cans of pepper spray each day, compared to five cans a week before the migrant crisis began. He said he is seeing many new customers who are not the typical clientele, including women of all ages and men who are buying weapons for their wives.
Günter Fritz, the owner of a gun shop in Ebersbach, another town in Saxony, told RTL News, "Since September, all over Germany, also at my shop, sales of self-defense products have exploded." He added that his clients come from all walks of life, ranging "from the professor to the retired lady. All are afraid."
Andreas Reinhardt, a gun shop owner in the northern German town of Eutin, said he now sells four to five self-defense weapons each day, compared to around two per month before the recent influx of asylum seekers. "The current social upheaval is clearly driving the current rush to self-defense," he said. "I never thought that fear would spread so quickly," he added. Eric Thiel, the owner of a gun shop in Flensburg, a city on the Baltic Sea coast, said that pepper spray is no longer available: "Everything is sold out. New supplies will not arrive until March. Everything that has to do with self-defense is booming enormously."
Wolfgang Mayer, the owner of a gun shop in Nördlingen, a town in Bavaria, said he has an explanation for the surge in gun licenses: "I think with the influx of refugees, the rise in break-ins and the many tricksters, the people are demanding greater protection." Mayer added that there is a growing sense within German society that the state cannot adequately protect its citizens and therefore they have to better protect themselves. "Since the summer, sales of pepper spray have increased by 50%," Mayer said, adding that buyers are mainly women, of all ages — from the student in the city up to the widowed grandmother.
Pepper spray and other types of non-lethal self-defense weapons are legal in Germany, but a permit is required to carry and use some categories of them. Officials in all of Germany's 16 federal states are reporting a spike in applications for such permits, known as the small weapons license (kleinen Waffenschein).
In the northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein, nearly 10,000 people now hold a small weapons license, an "all-time record level," according to the regional interior ministry. Retailers in the state are also reporting an "unprecedented surge" in sales of self-defense weapons, with supplies of pepper spray sold out until the spring of 2016.
In Saxony, retailers are reporting an unprecedented boom in sales of pepper spray, tear gas, gas pistols and even cross bows. Some stores are now selling more self-defense weapons in one day than they did in an entire month before the migrant crisis began. Saxon officials are also reporting a jump in the number of people applying for the full-fledged firearms license (großen Waffenschein). The rush to arms can be attributed to a "subjective decline in the people's sense of security," Saxon Interior Minister Markus Ulbig said. In Berlin, the number of people holding a small weapons license increased by 30% during the first ten months of 2015 compared to the same period in 2014, while the number of those holding the full-fledged firearms license jumped by some 50%, according to local police. In Bavaria, more than 45,000 people now hold a small weapons license, 3,000 more than in 2014. This represents a "significant increase," according to the regional interior ministry. As in other parts of Germany, Bavarian retailers are also reporting a boom in sales of self-defense weapons, including gas pistols, flare guns and pepper spray.
In Stuttgart, the capital city of Baden-Württemberg, local gun shops are reporting a four-fold increase in sales of self-defense weapons since August. One shop owner said she now sells more weapons in one week than she normally sells in one month. She added that she has never seen such high demand.
In Heilbronn, another city in Baden-Württemberg, local officials report that sales of pepper spray have doubled in 2015. According to one shopkeeper, the demand for pepper spray began surging in August, when many mothers started purchasing the product for their school-aged daughters. "Our clients are extremely afraid," the shopkeeper said. "We are seeing this everywhere." In Gera, a city in Thuringia, local media reported that at one store, the entire inventory of 120 cans of pepper spray was sold out within three hours. The store, which subsequently sold out of another batch of 144 cans, is now on a waiting list to obtain more because of supplier shortfalls.
A woman in Gera who bought pepper spray for her 16-year-old daughter said: "I think it is fundamentally proper for me to protect my daughter. She is at that age where she is out alone in the evening. If she says she needs this for protection, I think this is not unjustified. Of course, due to the current situation that we now have in Germany. We just do not know who is here. There are quite a lot of people who are not registered." The same trend toward self-defense is being repeated in the German states of Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saxony-Anhalt and North Rhine-Westphalia, where spiraling levels of violent crime perpetrated by migrants is turning some neighborhoods into no-go zones. Apologists for mass migration are accusing German citizens of overreacting. Some point to recent studies — commissioned by pro-migration groups — which claim, implausibly, that the number of crimes committed by migrants is decreasing, not increasing. Others deny that the rush to self-defense has anything to do with migrants at all. They blame a variety of different factors, including the early darkness associated with the end of daylight savings time, the jihadist attacks in Paris (which occurred in November, three months after sales of self-defense weapons began to spike), and the need for protection from wild wolves in parts of northern Germany.
The Süddeutsche Zeitung described the deception this way:
"Anyone who asks for the reasons for the surge in weapons purchases encounters silence. Officially, the regulatory agencies say that anyone who applies for the small weapons license does not need to provide a justification and therefore the government offices have no explanation. 'But it is true that sometimes we clearly get the message that they are afraid because of the refugees,' says one, on condition that his name and office will not be mentioned in the newspaper. 'People have already told me: I want to protect my family.' We have reported this to the Ministry... "The retailers also say nothing officially about the reasons for the increase in sales. Call a small gun shop. Many refugees arrived at the end of August, and since September the numbers are up, can there not be a connection? 'If you do not use my name: Sure, what else?' Says the man on the phone. The people who come to the store are afraid. They believe that among the refugees there are 'black sheep.' Some customers openly admit it."
Empirical evidence shows an indisputable nationwide spike in migrant-driven crime, including rapes of German women and girls on a shocking scale, as well as sexual and physical assaults, stabbings, home invasions, robberies, burglaries and drug trafficking.The spike in violent crimes committed by migrants has been corroborated by a confidential police report leaked to a German newspaper. The document reveals that a record-breaking 38,000 asylum seekers were accused of committing crimes in the country in 2014. Analysts believe this figure — which works out to more than 100 crimes a day — is only a fragment: many crimes are not reported. Not surprisingly, a new poll shows that 55% of Germans are pessimistic about the future, up from 31% in 2014 and 28% in 2013. The poll shows that 42% of those between the ages of 14 and 34 believe their future will be bleak; this is more than double the number of those (19%) who felt this way in 2013. At the same time, 64% of those aged 55 and above are fearful about the future. The poll also shows that four-fifths (79%) of the German population believe the economy will deteriorate in 2016 due to the financial burdens created by the migration crisis, and 70% believe that member states of the European Union will drift further apart in the coming year. The most predictable finding of all: 87% of Germans believe their politicians will experience a decline in public support during 2016. Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. He is also Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group. Follow him on Facebook and on Twitter. His first book, Global Fire, will be out in early 2016.
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Erdogan says Kurdish militants will be 'annihilated'
Week in Review/Al-Monitor/December 21/15/
Erdogan vows to crush Kurdish "self-rule" movement
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned Kurdish militants Dec. 15 that “you will be annihilated,” and pledged that Turkish security forces will continue their massive military assault on Kurdish towns in southeastern Turkey until they are “completely cleansed and a peaceful atmosphere established."
Metin Gurcan reports that the escalation in military operations in towns where Kurdish militants associated with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) have taken hold has increased the possibility of a civil war. “At the moment, the Turkish army is moving tanks and armored vehicles to lay siege to those towns,” Gurcan writes. “Checkpoints have already been established at the towns' entrances. In many towns, particularly in Cizre, Silopi and Nusaybin, education has been halted with an extremely unusual move by the Ministry of Education, which sent text messages to about 3,000 public teachers instructing them to return to their hometowns for "on-the-job training." Since nobody believes such training would be done in the middle of the school year by closing schools, it is seen as a sign of approaching battles, further panicking the population. Now, teachers and other civil servants are rapidly evacuating these towns. Those who couldn’t find buses to get out were seen walking and hitchhiking.”
Amberin Zaman reports on the trend of increased radicalization of the PKK, including the rise of an armed youth movement loyal to imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan. “In a clutch of towns and cities across Turkey’s mainly Kurdish southeast, armed youngsters loyal to Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned PKK leader, and calling themselves the Patriotic Revolutionary Youth Movement (YDG-H), have seized control of entire streets and neighborhoods, erecting barriers and declaring autonomy,” Zaman reports. “The spirit of rebellion has permeated Sur, where pro-PKK slogans and posters of the mustachioed Ocalan cover bullet-riddled walls. Several young fighters interviewed by Al-Monitor all said that they would end their revolt only if ordered to do so by Ocalan. But since April 6, the Turkish authorities have not allowed any of his regular visitors, including the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) lawmakers who used to carry messages from him, to meet with Ocalan in his island prison. The resulting vacuum has been filled by Cemil Bayik, the hard-line PKK commander who says he supports the YDG-H’s moves.”
Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu warned the HDP on Dec. 17 about “playing with fire” by exploiting the clashes. Figen Yuksekdag of the HDP said that 200,000 people have been displaced as a result of the fighting. Mahmut Bozarslan, reporting from Diyarbakir, writes that the region “has been in chaos for weeks. Urban unrest across the mainly Kurdish southeast has simmered since August, when PKK-linked groups moved to take control of certain residential areas and declared what they call “self-rule.” The authorities responded with security crackdowns. To stop the security forces from entering the neighborhoods, the Patriotic Revolutionary Youth Movement (YDG-H), the PKK’s urban youth branch, dug trenches and erected barricades. The curfews followed, and young people armed with light weapons clashed with the police.”Bozarslan continues, “The brief lifting of the curfew revealed scenes out of a war zone. Though the number of fleeing people was smaller, many compared the exodus with last year’s Kurdish flight from the Syrian city of Kobani to Turkey, sparked by the Islamic State’s offensive. Some residents claimed police had urged them to evacuate their homes as soon as possible. This reporter had to pass three police checkpoints to reach the inner part of the district, where bullet-riddled buildings, craters opened by explosions and toppled electric poles stood as grim testaments to the clashes. The oft-photographed house that has become the symbol of the unrest was immediately recognizable. Its walls were partially demolished and not a single square meter of its facade seemed to have escaped the bullets. In the adjacent house, an elderly woman was packing up. Pointing to the big hole in the building’s wall, she wept, 'Why has this befallen us? What did we do?'”Kadri Gursel concludes that Turkey’s crackdown on the PKK has opened Ankara up to pressure from Russia. Turkey’s "cold war" with Russia allows Moscow to “increase military and political pressure on Ankara to deter it from backing jihadis,” Gursel explains. “It remains to be seen how long Ankara will be able to sustain the cold war with Russia and the heated conflict with the PKK without letting its two adversaries link up.”
Syria resolutions should test Saudi coalition
The UN Security Council passed two resolutions last week that link a cease-fire and political transition in Syria to increased international efforts to defeat al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State (IS).
Resolution 2253, passed unanimously on Dec. 17, builds upon all previous UN Security Council resolutions to direct member states to increase cooperation to prevent any form of support, trade or financing for Jabhat al-Nusra, IS and associated terrorist groups and entities. Resolution 2254, which passed unanimously the next day, gives the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) a Security Council mandate to implement a cease-fire and political transition talks as outlined in the recent Vienna meetings. The process envisions a six-month timeline to establish a transitional government, according to the 2012 Geneva Communique, with talks to commence in January, followed by 18 months to hold elections and enact a new constitution.
With regard to the increased focus on counterterrorism, Resolution 2254 calls on “Member States to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as Da’esh), Al-Nusra Front (ANF), and all other individuals, groups, undertakings, and entities associated with Al Qaeda or ISIL, and other terrorist groups, as designated by the Security Council, and as may further be agreed by the ISSG and determined by the Security Council, pursuant to the Statement of the ISSG of 14 November 2015, and to eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Syria, and notes that the aforementioned ceasefire will not apply to offensive or defensive actions against these individuals, groups, undertakings and entities, as set forth in the 14 November 2015 ISSG Statement.”
The emphasis on counterterrorism in both resolutions could mean that Turkey will face even more pressure to crack down on the cross-border traffic by terrorist groups operating in Syria.
The UN resolutions should also help clarify the announcement last week by Saudi Arabia Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of a new Saudi-led 34-member “Islamic” alliance to battle terrorism. Saudi Arabia’s assertive leadership in the battle against terrorism is a welcome and noteworthy development. But the announcement of the coalition has been received with uncertainty about the kingdom’s intent and objectives. We will not here recount the many press reports of how some of the members of the coalition seemed to know little about it; that all of its members are Sunni states; and that Iran and Iraq are notable omissions. Nor is it worth reminding readers that Saudi Arabia has been contributing close to nothing to the US-led air campaign against IS, as Bruce Riedel wrote last month for Al-Monitor.
With the passage of resolutions 2253 and 2254, there is no ambiguity about the expected collective steps needed to defeat IS and Jabhat al-Nusra. As a member in good standing of both the United Nations and ISSG, Saudi Arabia could quickly reveal the sincere intent of its coalition by having the first items on its agenda being implementation of these resolutions. There may be more that Saudi Arabia can do over time, but enforcement of well-detailed and documented Security Council resolutions would be a good place to start, and a welcome contribution to the fight against terrorism. Zarif sets "red line" on terrorist groups in Syria. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, in an interview with Al-Monitor, said that Iran has “set a red line that Daesh [IS], Jabhat al-Nusra and other al-Qaeda affiliates would not be recognized as legitimate oppositions. So whoever is not among them and whoever is prepared to sit down and seek a political solution, if they meet the criteria, then that's the criteria. Unfortunately, people are trying to avoid that criteria from being set.”
Zarif lamented the political gamesmanship around designation of terrorist groups in Syria, including reports that members of ISSG had requested that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Hezbollah be included on the list of terrorist groups being compiled by Jordan.
“One or two [countries] actually tried to use this as a political ploy to score, in my view, rather childish political scores. And while there is unanimity on a number of organizations, like Daesh [IS] and [Jabhat al-] Nusra, and a very large majority, including certain organizations like Ahrar al-Sham, which were unfortunately invited to the meeting in Saudi Arabia as terrorist organizations. There were one or two that just put certain names in there, and that list has been officially withdrawn now. So there is no list with organizations or entities that are actually in Syria under request of the Syrian government fighting Daesh [IS] and terrorist groups that is around. It is a very sad situation where people, instead of focusing their attention on known terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda, Daesh [IS] and Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, and Jaish al-Islam — organizations which everybody considers to be extremist terrorist organizations — are trying to use them as leverage or play games or try to bargain.”
Has Netanyahu closed the Iran file?
Mazal Mualem speculates that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s uncharacteristically low-key response to the report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) ending the investigation into the previous military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program may reflect a shifting of priorities. “It is quite possible that Netanyahu is waiting for another opportunity to bring up the IAEA, but it is more likely that he has simply gotten everything he can out of the Iranian issue,” Mualem writes. “He recognizes that Iran is no longer on the international community’s agenda, that the nuclear deal is already part of US President Barack Obama’s legacy and that a unilateral attack by Israel is no longer a viable option. In addition, Netanyahu has in the meantime succeeded in creating new, alternative threats to Israel’s security, the foremost being the Islamic State. He assumes the tangible threat of terrorism nearby will cause Israelis to forget about Iran, and of course, he is right. The Iran file has been closed. No one in Israel seems interested in it anymore.”

The U.N. plan for Syria has two major flaws
Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/December 21/15
The U.N. Security Council unanimously passed resolution 2254, outlining what it refers to as a “roadmap” for peace in Syria. Despite the fact that the most important parties on the Security Council have publicly hailed the 16-point resolution as promising, there are two major flaws that jeopardize the effectiveness of the potential plan. The agreement fails to address the future of Bashar al-Assad’s disgraced regime in any meaningful manner. Stipulation 4 of the resolution notes that there needs to be a political process overseen by the U.N. within six months, which plans for a new constitution as well as elections within the following 18 months. Nowhere in this stipulation indicates the Assad regime must first step down before free and democratic elections can take place. While there was no likelihood Russia would vote for an alternative resolution that explicitly addressed Assad’s ousting, ignoring the issue entirely paves the way for Assad to run.Failing to unequivocally plan for Assad’s departure will only prolong the conflict while the humanitarian situation worsens
The Assad regime was already reelected in the polls, widely believed to be sham elections, which took place in June 2014. The election only took place in government-controlled areas; Assad campaign posters were hung, while pockets of his own population were being intentionally starved to death. With every barrel bomb, act of torture and chemical weapon attack, Assad destroyed any legitimacy he had as a ruler. His regime has also contributed to the ISIS’s wealth by reportedly buying their oil and continuously failing to aerially bombard the militant group’s positions. His regime should be as represented in future elections as much as ISIS is.
Determining terrorist groups
The second major problematic aspect of the agreement is stipulation 9 which indicates that the U.N. “welcomes the effort that was conducted by the government of Jordan to help develop a common understanding within the ISSG of individuals and groups for possible determination as terrorists and will consider expeditiously the recommendation of the ISSG for the purpose of determining terrorist groups.”That there has been no consensus yet reached regarding which groups will be considered terrorist organizations is concerning. Days prior to the passing of the resolution, Assad himself noted: “For us, in Syria, everyone who holds a machinegun is a terrorist." Moreover, he continued, his regime would not sit down to political talks with “any armed groups.” It is an obvious point but one worth reiterating, if the Assad regime continues to classify all armed groups as terrorists – as he did even in the most embryonic stages of the conflict – Amman’s efforts will prove futile. The Syrian conflict desperately needs to come to a decisive end and U.N. efforts to facilitate this must continue without pause. However, failing to unequivocally plan for Assad’s departure will only prolong the conflict while the humanitarian situation worsens. Worryingly, a roadmap that fails to discuss Assad’s grip on power and which armed groups should be targeted will likely lead to nowhere.

Who killed Hezbollah’s Samir Qantar? Ask Syria
Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/December 21/15
Up until the time of writing, there has been no absolute statement from the Syrian government confirming that Lebanese militant leader Samir Qantar was killed in an Israeli aerial raid, as announced by Hezbollah. The Syrian government´s public explanation of the incident was expressed in remarks carried by the state-owned SANA news agency that lacked a clear-cut pointing-finger to Israel as being behind Qantar´s death. But let it be very clear from the very beginning that what is written here is not a conspiracy theory piece accusing the Syrian regime of killing Qantar, although there has always a big question mark hanging over the deaths of many militant leaders and allies in Syria. I was taken aback by the Syrian official statement on the killing of Qantar, a Druze, who was released by Israel in 2008 as part of a prisoner swap with the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah. Perhaps by pointing the finger at Israel, Hezbollah said what the Syrians were unable to say. In January this year, the two longtime allies´ statements on Israel´s killing of six Hezbollah members, including commander and son of the group´s leader Imad Mughniyah in Quneitra were identical, accusing the same enemy and pledging coordinated revenge. But this time it was different.
Remarkably enough, the Syrian account of the incident resembled to a greater degree that of Israel - no confirmation and no refuting
Hezbollah´s al-Manar TV aired an official statement by the Shiite militia affirming that Qantar was killed in an Israeli airstrike on a residential district of Damascus. Meanwhile, according to the Syria, as SANA announced, the Lebanese militant leader was killed in a ´´terrorist rocket attack.” From a purely discourse analysis point of view, the Syrian official statements appeared to want to contain the incident. SANA quoted Syria´s Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi as describing Qantar´s killing as a ´´terrorist operation plotted beforehand´´ without accusing Israel or any party. In a statement, also carried by SANA, the Syrian People´s Assembly accused a combination of “Takfiri Zionist” forces ´´led by several countries topped by Israel´´ of killing Qantar – again, not directly accusing Israel.
Daring, but still not clear
Syria´s Prime Minister Wael al-Halaqi’s statement was somehow a bit more daring, carrying some accusations against Israel but against other parties as well reading, as cited by SANA: ´´This attack will not prevent the Axis of Resistance from continuing its struggle against the Israeli enemy and confronting the terrorist war waged on Syria and the Arab nation.´´The three Syrian official statements issued so far were all loose, coy and full of diplomatic euphemisms, so to speak. None of the statements have made it clear that Qantar was killed in an Israeli airstrike on a Damascus suburb, as announced by Hezbollah. Syria’s conventional sentence “Syria reserves the right to retaliate by all means at its disposal” was entirely absent in all the three official statements on Qantar’s death. Remarkably enough, the Syrian account of the incident resembled to a greater degree that of Israel - no confirmation and no refuting. ‏But the Syrian statements on Qantar´s killing were worded with a heavy Russian military presence in the background and they were inseparable from new political developments on Syria and the new international coalitions in the making. It can´t be that the Israelis launched an airstrike on Syria now without coordination with their Russian allies who now control Syria´s airspace. And if the Syrians confirmed that Israeli jets killed Qantar, then they would appear as either having prior knowledge of the plan or have no sovereignty over their country. Who actually killed the 54-year-old Qantar? In my opinion, Israel is a likely perpetrator but the question is how its jets flew over Syria now without being spotted by the Russian satellites and space power. The Russian silence on the incident is also worth-noting. In fact, the killing of Qantar is proof that Syria is no longer a safe place even for the Syrian regime’s allies and loyalists. All is relative amid the overlapping interests from the many parties embroiled in the Syrian war.

Fighting terrorism with Arab forces
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/December 21/15
If intentions are honest and inaction gives way to action, this year could conclude with local, regional, and international agreements to stop the bloodletting in Yemen, Libya and Syria, through solutions sponsored by U.N. envoys, now a key component of conflict-ending strategies. Successful diplomacy is about the art of the possible, but failure is always a risk if radical differences are kicked down the road, as part of a permanent strategy in the pursuit of solutions rather than a tactic. Indeed, what this would do is perpetuate one de facto reality after another, at the expense of principles and serious solutions, thereby turning any peace process into something that slowly numbs the momentum that once existed behind it. This is exactly what happened to the so-called Middle East peace process, which did not end the occupation, which almost precluded the internationally backed two-state solution, and removes all serious objections to illegal Israeli settlement-building. What is happening in the Syrian Vienna process is reminiscent of the enthusiasm that accompanied the Palestinian-Israeli peace process upon its birth in Madrid, but the rest is history. The Vienna process, which resumes in New York on Friday in a meeting bringing together foreign ministers of 19 nations, is a necessary investment in the political settlement.
It is crucial for Saudi Arabia and Iran to sit around the same table. The same goes for Turkey and Russia, despite their complex differences and recent escalations. Meanwhile, postponing discussions about the fate of Bashar al-Assad to the end of the transitional political process could be necessary. However, Syria cannot afford the prolongation of its five-year humanitarian crisis, as the major powers vie to conduct strikes against ISIS without a plan to protect civilians under the group’s control, who are now treated as collateral damage in a strategy that avoids deploying ground troops against the terror organization.
Killing and displacing thousands to eliminate ISIS seems to be collateral damage with international consent, but this is a big mistake. To be sure, the ceasefires being prepared by the U.N. in Syria excludes areas controlled by ISIS, Nusra Front and their allies, who will be bombed by an international coalition from the air without a matching strategy to secure the areas in question on the ground.
Humanitarian safe zones
The Saudi-proposed Islamic anti-terror alliance could be very important if it ends up establishing a joint ground force, which would then operate on the ground in tandem with international airstrikes. Since the refugee crisis is bound to worsen as a result of the intensifying war on ISIS, it is time for serious efforts to establish humanitarian safe zones, instead of also kicking this issue down the road. What matters is that Arab and Islamic countries should be serious and should have a clear strategy, which is yet to appear. Yet both of these tacks require, in turn, the tackling of the problem of Iran-backed militias in Syria. The U.S., Britain, France, and Germany must engage in serious dialogue with Iran on the Syrian issue, instead of postponing this while legitimizing Iranian violations to preserve the nuclear deal with Tehran. Earlier this week, the U.N. Security Council held discussions regarding resolution 1737, which prohibits Iran from deploying military forces, advisers, armaments, or militias outside its borders. Both the U.S. and Britain confirmed the resolution, which was adopted under Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter, had been violated. However, they were content with verbal criticisms and pretexted Russian and Chinese protection for Iran from accountability. Even when Iran conducted a missile test violating a ban on its ballistic missile program, Washington was keen to contain the issue to prevent the Republicans from raising it in Congress. The test, despite even violating the nuclear deal itself, was thus ignored.
The same happened when it was proven that Iran had engaged in efforts to build nuclear weapons, in contradiction of its own claims, Washington ignored the otherwise major issue. Iranian President Hassan Rowhani was right on the mark when he said the closure of the Iranian nuclear history was a huge “political victory” for Iran. By contrast, Iraq had paid a high price because what the U.S. and the international community demanded of it was the opposite of what it demanded – or gave on a platter of gold – to Iran. Indeed, Iraq was asked to prove it had destroyed its biological weapons. Iraq’s WMD stockpiles were then removed by U.N. teams and later in U.S. military operations. This is not to mention falsely claiming Iraq still had WMDs as a pretext for the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.
Star of the debate
In the latest debate between Republican presidential candidates, they all insisted on blaming U.S. President Barack Obama for exempting Iran from accountability, and rushing to conclude a nuclear deal with Tehran. However, they all collectively ignored the role of former President Bush in attracting terrorism to Iraq and disbanding the Iraqi army, which radically contributed to the emergence of ISIS. Remarkably, ISIS was the star of the debate, which portrayed the group as a terrible enemy posing a huge threat to U.S. national security. The candidates spoke about changing regimes in the Arab region beginning with the Arab Spring, rather than Bush’s war to overthrow Saddam Hussein as they should have. They differed over whether the train of regime change – after passing through Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Yemen – should stop with Bashar al-Assad in Syria. As some argued, Assad is needed to defeat ISIS, while others argued that it was his departure that is crucial for defeating the ultra-radical group. Some candidates tackled the U.S. role in fomenting Sunni-Shiite strife. Some urged a partnership with Tehran, Assad, and Moscow, as others objected, saying this would undermine the more crucial partnership with Sunnis against Islamic extremism and radicalism, Sunni and Shiite.
In truth, this discussion is unusual, because the American people in general do not want to listen to it and do not want to learn about U.S. involvement in creating radicalism. In this regard, the debate was useful because it raised issues like Shiite radicalism, sponsored by Iran, and Sunni radicalism, which the Arab countries and Turkey are required to fight in earnest through both measures in their countries and military forces. The Saudi initiative for a 35-nation Arab-Islamic coalition could be taken to the Vienna process meeting in New York. The focus there will be on the details of forming a ground force that would practically be the boots on the ground for international airstrikes. However, there are very significant complications, and it is not clear how Russia will deal with this development, especially if Turkey is not part of it. The Saudi initiative is valuable because it proposed Arab intervention in Syria instead of leaving the arena open to Turkey and Iran. It is useful because it comes at a time when there are many criticisms being voiced against Arab and Sunni absence from the fight against Sunni extremism.
What matters is that Arab and Islamic countries should be serious and should have a clear strategy, which is yet to appear. The Saudi efforts to determine which Syrian opposition factions will be present at the Vienna table in New York. So will be Jordan’s efforts to define which factions are terrorist groups in Syria. These two elements were agreed during the second round of the Vienna process, and are subject to further deliberation in New York, especially that Russia has reservations on the meeting in Riyadh regarding the definition of Syrian opposition. However, Russia needs to compromise because it is desperate for an exit strategy from its costly military adventure in Syria. Yet President Vladimir Putin will not concede easily, because he is adamant about achieving a victory. For one thing, Putin had found U.S. complacency regarding his airstrikes against the Syrian opposition rather than ISIS, meant to bolster the Assad regime. Putin is also determined to prevent Turkey from scoring points at his expense. However, at the same time, he needs an exit strategy from the Syrian quagmire. Thus, Putin may find the Saudi and Jordanian efforts to be his ticket out, albeit with some provisos.The Obama administration in turn stands to gain from Russian intervention, which spares it the need to be implicated in Syria. For this reason, the U.S. does not mind showing complacency regarding the fate of Assad in the transition in Syria and regarding Iranian involvement in Syria. The Obama administration essentially wants two things: Not to become entangled in Syria and preserving the nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran, believes Russia’s role is conducive to this, which is why it turns a blind eye to violations.
However, the presidential elections could force the Obama administration to show some adaptability and flexibility. If so, this would be an opportunity for the Arab countries to develop a clear strategy for what they want in Syria and for what they are willing to offer to end the Syrian tragedy.
Meanwhile, the U.N. process led by envoy Staffan de Mistura must be wary of the postponement of key principles that it must otherwise safeguard, such as the protection of civilians, and not be drawn into ostensibly higher priorities such as the war on ISIS. The U.N. must not turn its back on principles like accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity, regardless of whether they are perpetrated by governments or terrorist groups. It must object to the legitimization of violations against international resolutions, including those issued under Chapter VII of the Charter, under the pretext of the priority of crushing ISIS. The U.N. must become involved in the deferral of major issues, and claim this is the art of diplomacy.

Yazidi politician in Iraq: The international community has abandoned my people
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN/J.Post/12/22/2015
ERBIL, KURDISTAN REGION, IRAQ – “In the beginning, the international community and many countries did many things and they sent humanitarian help for the Yazidi people and saved the Yazidis for three or four weeks. But after that it decreased and decreased and finished in four months.”
Speaking from her office in Baghdad, Vian Dakhil, one of two Yazidi members of the Iraqi Parliament, was one of the strongest voices for her community last year. On August 5, 2014, she gave an impassioned speech in parliament begging for anyone listening to care about the massacre of Iraq’s Yazidi minority by Islamic State. When Islamic State overran the area of Shingal and northern Iraq in August of 2014, it targeted Yazidis for extermination. Women were sold into slavery and given out to ISIS commanders in an unprecedented act of brutality. Men were lined up and shot in the back of the head and buried in mass graves. Khairi Bozani, the head of the Yazidi Affairs Office of the Kurdistan Regional Government, says 3,400 women, girls and young boys are missing and 1,882 men and elderly women are believed to have been murdered by ISIS.
A mass grave recently uncovered west of Shingal (Sinjar) city in northern Iraq. Yazidis are a minority group that practices a secretive religion and have been targeted over the years by Islamist extremists. Most Yazidis say they have suffered 73 genocides over the centuries. Dakhil says the international community has abandoned her people. “Eightyfive percent of the Yazidi are refugees now and the UN has decreased aid for them. We have 3,400 women kidnapped by ISIS and we need support...including for those Yazidi who want to leave the country [for Europe]. Refugee camps need food, [clean] water, hospitals and schools.” Basic services are lacking, such as psychological support for the women released by ISIS who have suffered trauma and sexual violence. “It has been one and a half years and the situation is very bad, worse than in the past,” says Dakhil. When ISIS overran the area in August it met with stiff Kurdish peshmerga resistance near the town of Rabiah on the Syrian border.
“Eventually the Kurdish forces pushed ISIS back over hundreds of kilometers, liberating Yazidi villages. But 300,000 people are fearful to return. I don’t think the people will be able to return. “We have some who returned to Snune [a town], but these are not families, mostly men who went back to see what happened to their homes. I don’t know if it is a good time to return, everything is destroyed and we don’t have services there.” Dakhil says the Iraqi central government is not doing enough to support the people. “Many countries sent money through Baghdad, but because of the corruption and also some bad people, most of the money was ‘lost.’ We don’t know where it went.”But she is adamant that the Iraqi people is sympathetic to the plight of the Yazidi. “Especially the Shia, they care about this issue and some Sunni [Arabs] care, but the government doesn’t.”
The Iraqi government is today dominated by Shia Arabs who are the power force in Baghdad.
In contrast to Sunni extremists, Shia groups have tended to have better relations with minorities in the region, including Christians and other groups. “The Kurdistan Regional Government has done the most support for Yazidi people and help families get back girls. But the KRG needs the international community,” she says. Yazidis speak Kurdish, and Dakhil is a member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). The KDP has been specifically involved with the issue of supporting Yazidi in the aftermath of the massacres by ISIS. “I want recognition [of what ISIS did] as genocide. ISIS killed men and kidnapped women and killed girls and boys, separating children from mothers and did all bad things,” Dakhil says.
She compares what has happened to the Yazidis to the Holocaust.
“It is the same. In the Holocaust the people were Jewish and it [for us] was just because they were Yazidi – it was due to religion.” Dakhil links the killings to a history of persecution. “It began in 2003 [after the US invasion of Iraq]. Many Yazidi farmers were murdered in Mosul by al-Qaida and radical groups and in Tal Afar.” Mosul was one of the cities to support ISIS early on, in June 2014, and along with Tal Afar is still in the hands of ISIS. Dakhil’s life story is linked personally with the tragedy. She was born in Shingal and is 41 years old. She recalls that in the era of Saddam Hussein Yazidis were suppressed because they spoke Kurdish.
Her family fled into exile in 1974 because of Saddam’s regime. But she says the security situation was better than after 2003. She also faces hurdles as a woman in politics. “In this situation in the Middle East in general, you know the man always comes first, but in this case I did something that many men cannot do,” she says, in terms of representing her community and braving the situation. She says she feels in danger at all times. While she gained some attention in 2014, her main message is that the crimes of ISIS against Yazidis and their suffering in refugee camps is ongoing. “I want the international community to know that this is not finished, this is current, the girls are still with ISIS and we have refugees living in winter and they are in bad conditions.”

The battles in N. Syria will determine the fate of the peace process
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis December 21, 2015
The US-Russian plan, approved by the UN Security Council as the lever for activating a political process towards ending the five-year Syrian war, can only go so far towards its objectives. The process is not capable of halting the fighting or removing Bashar Assad from power; just the reverse: progress in the talks is heavily dependent on the state of play on the battlefields of the north while the Syrian dictator’s ouster is a fading issue.
The limitations and obstacles facing the UN-endorsed US-Russian plan are summed up here by debkafile’s analysts:
1. The understanding reached by the Obama administration and the Kremlin in the past month was first conceived as a stopgap measure. It was never intended to bring the calamitous Syrian war to an end or remove Assad, but rather to provide a pretext to account for the expansion of Russia’s ground operation and gloss over America’s military deficiencies in the Syrian conflict. Taking it as carte blanche from Washington, President Vladimir Putin felt able to announce Saturday, Dec. 19, that “the Russian armed forces have not employed all of their capability in Syria and may use more military means there if necessary.”
2. President Barack Obama has stopped calling for Assad’s removal as the condition for ending the war and is silent on the expanding Russian military intervention. Obama and Putin have in fact developed a working arrangement whereby Putin goes ahead with military operations and Obama backs him
3. Almost unnoticed, on Dec. 17, the day before the Security Council passed its resolution for Syria, all the 12 US warplanes that were deployed a month earlier at the Turkish air base of Incirlik for air strikes in Syria were evacuated. This happened at around the same time as Russia deployed to Syria its Buk-M2-SA-17 Grizzly antiaircraft missile systems. The presence of this system would have endangered American pilots had US air strikes over Syria not been halted. The upshot of the two evidently coordinated moves was the US withdrawal of most of its military resources for striking the Islamic State forces in Syria and the handover of the arena to the Russian army and air force.
4. In another related development, Friday, Dec. 18 the German intelligence service, BND, leaked news that it had renewed its contacts with the Assad regime’s intelligence services and German agents were now visiting Damascus regularly. The import of this change is that Berlin no longer relies on US intelligence briefings from Syria and, rather than turn to Moscow, it prefers to tap its own sources in the Syrian capital.
5. Washington and Moscow are still far apart on the shape of the transitional government mandated by the Security Council resolution
The Obama administration wants Assad to hand presidential powers over the military and of all security-related and intelligence bodies to the transitional government, which is to be charged with calling general and presidential elections from which Assad will be barred.
Putin won’t hear of this process. He insists on a transitional government being put in place and proving it can function before embarking on any discussion of its powers and areas of authority.
The two presidents agree that the transition will need at least two years, overlapping the Obama presidency by about a year and dropping the issue in the lap of his successor in the White House.
6. The US and Russia don’t see to eye to eye either on which Syrian opposition organizations should be represented in the transitional government and which portfolios to assign them. On this question, both Washington and Moscow are at odds with the Persian Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, which back some of the organizations labeled as terrorist by Moscow.
7. But it is abundantly clear that the Obama administration is ready to wash its hands of the Syrian rebel movement and most of all, abandon Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to give the Russians an open remit.
On Saturday, Dec. 19, Putin turned the screw again on Erdogan when he said he had no problem with the Turkish people, adding, “As for the current Turkish leadership, nothing is eternal.”
In support of Moscow, Obama meanwhile leaned hard on the Turkish president in a telephone conversation, to remove Turkish forces from northern Iraq. Ankara responded that Putin’s comment was not worth a response and denied hearing of any such US request.
Ankara may be feigning ignorance but it must realize by now that Moscow and Washington have joined forces to pus the Turkish military out of any involvement in northern Syria and Iraq.
8. This US-Russia collaboration against Turkey is having a dramatic effect on the war in northern Syria along the Turkish border. debkafile’s military and intelligence sources report it opened the door to the secret deal between Washington and Moscow to divide the areas of influence in northern Syria between them – essentially assigning the Kurdish enclaves north of the Euphrates river and bordering on Iraq to American influence (see map), and the areas west of the Euphrates up to the Mediterranean to Russian control. This deal (first revealed by DEBKA Weekly 688 on Dec. 4) effectively squeezes Turkey out of any role in the Syrian conflict.
9. The ongoing battles in northern Syria near the Turkish border will have a greater impact in shaping the future of Syria and its unending conflict than any UN resolution. Participating in the fighting at present is a very big mixed cast: Russia, the Kurdish YPG militia, most of the important rebel groups, including radical Sunni organizations tied to Al Qaeda, such as the Nusra Front and Ahram al-Sham, Iran and Shiite Hizballah, and the Islamic State.
It is only when one of these forces gains the upper hand in this free-for-all, that there will be progress toward a political solution on ending the war.