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Bible Quotations For Today
In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God
"Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 01/01-18: "In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God. He was in the beginning with God. All things came into being through him, and without him not one thing came into being. What has come into being. in him was life, and the life was the light of all people. The light shines in the darkness, and the darkness did not overcome it. There was a man sent from God, whose name was John. He came as a witness to testify to the light, so that all might believe through him. He himself was not the light, but he came to testify to the light. The true light, which enlightens everyone, was coming into the world. He was in the world, and the world came into being through him; yet the world did not know him. He came to what was his own, and his own people did not accept him. But to all who received him, who believed in his name, he gave power to become children of God, who were born, not of blood or of the will of the flesh or of the will of man, but of God. And the Word became flesh and lived among us, and we have seen his glory, the glory as of a father’s only son, full of grace and truth. (John testified to him and cried out, ‘This was he of whom I said, "He who comes after me ranks ahead of me because he was before me." ’) From his fullness we have all received, grace upon grace. The law indeed was given through Moses; grace and truth came through Jesus Christ. No one has ever seen God. It is God the only Son, who is close to the Father’s heart, who has made him known."

We have not ceased praying for you and asking that you may be filled with the knowledge of God’s will
"Letter to the Colossians 01/09b-20: "We have not ceased praying for you and asking that you may be filled with the knowledge of God’s will in all spiritual wisdom and understanding, so that you may lead lives worthy of the Lord, fully pleasing to him, as you bear fruit in every good work and as you grow in the knowledge of God. May you be made strong with all the strength that comes from his glorious power, and may you be prepared to endure everything with patience, while joyfully giving thanks to the Father, who has enabled you to share in the inheritance of the saints in the light. He has rescued us from the power of darkness and transferred us into the kingdom of his beloved Son, in whom we have redemption, the forgiveness of sins. He is the image of the invisible God, the firstborn of all creation; for in him all things in heaven and on earth were created, things visible and invisible, whether thrones or dominions or rulers or powers all things have been created through him and for him. He himself is before all things, and in him all things hold together. He is the head of the body, the church; he is the beginning, the firstborn from the dead, so that he might come to have first place in everything. For in him all the fullness of God was pleased to dwell, and through him God was pleased to reconcile to himself all things, whether on earth or in heaven, by making peace through the blood of his cross."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 30-31/15
Saudi anti-terrorism coalition raises eyebrows in Lebanon/Sami Nader/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
Turkey’s foreign policy prospects for 2016 not so promising/Semih Idiz/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
Amid financial hardship, Erdogan looks to Qatar as 'rich daddy'/Zülfikar Doğan/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
Can tourism be revived in ancient Iraqi city/Wassim Bassem/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
Will Green Movement haunt Iran’s upcoming elections/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
Is Riyadh belt-tightening or amending economic approach/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/December 30/15
Is Russia going soft on Assad/Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/December 30/15
Will Russia boost Mideast ties in 2016/Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/December 30/15
The Paris Response: Answering Urgent Questions in the Anti-ISIS Fight/Anna Borshchevskaya/Washington Institute/December 30/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on December 30-31/15
Berri Warns Region Being 'Redrawn on Ruins of the Sykes-Picot Agreement'
Saniora Accuses Iran of Hindering Presidential Settlement
Report: Army Still Awaits Saudi Grant, Will Make no Statements
Bekaa Man Killed in Landmine Blast near Syria's Border
Jumblat Travels to Cairo on 'Non-Political' Trip
Israel Army Chief Inspects Golan Front amid Tensions with Hizbullah
Saudi anti-terrorism coalition raises eyebrows in Lebanon

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 30-31/15
Canada congratulates Government of Iraq on raising Iraqi flag in Ramadi
U.N. Offers to Help Iraqi Refugees Return to Ramadi
Bahrain F-16 Crashes in Saudi near Yemen Border as Rebels Fire Ballistic Missile
Brussels Cancels New Year's Festivities over Terror Threat, Detains New Suspect
Israel Plays Down U.S. Spying Scandal
Thousands of Homes Destroyed in Iraq's Ramadi
1 mln migrants came to Europe by sea this year: U.N.
Two blasts hit Kurdish-controlled city in Syria
Baghdad, Ankara bicker over Turkish troops in Iraq
Saudi says Syria rebel chief killing doesn’t serve peace
Saudi envoy to Iraq repeats call for militants to surrender
Turkey arrests 2 ISIS suspects over NYE attack plot
Emergency measures as Tehran records 18th day of bad air
Bahraini F-16 jet crashes in Saudi near Yemen border
Bahrain jails 29 over bomb attack on police
Saudi Ministy of Labor to count children of non-Saudi fathers as citizens
U.S. chides Russia over civilian deaths in Syria
U.S. ‘still spying’ on Netanyahu communications
Israel arrests Jews over celebration of toddler death
Iranian navy test fires rockets near U.S. carrier
Saudi Arabia, Turkey to set up ‘strategic cooperation council’: Saudi FM

Berri Warns Region Being 'Redrawn on Ruins of the Sykes-Picot Agreement'
Naharnet/December 30/15/Speaker Nabih Berri warned on Wednesday that the region is witnessing major developments the results of which are “unpredictable.” He said: “There are signs that a new map of the region is being drawn up on the ruins of the Sykes-Picot agreement.” He made his remarks during his weekly meeting with lawmakers at his Ain el-Tineh residence. “The challenges require the Lebanese people to adopt a responsible approach at the beginning of the new year in order to fortify constitutional institutions,” stressed Berri. The Sykes-Picot agreement was a secret agreement between Britain and France at the end of World War I and demise of the Ottoman Empire, which saw the division of the areas of what are now Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Iraq, and Syria between the two European powers. Earlier on Wednesday, media reports said that Berri had warned that the institutions are facing a “great danger” due to the obstruction of the work of parliament and cabinet. His visitors quoted him as saying: “Those who believe that obstructing parliament and government will resolve the presidential deadlock have been proven wrong seeing as a head of state has not been elected.”He revealed that he will “remind officials of their responsibilities during the next national dialogue session, which is set for January 11.” The speaker will focus his efforts in the new year on “reactivating the work of cabinet and parliament,” said his visitors. The failure to elect a president has led to paralysis at parliament and government, which in turn has crippled state institutions. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls.

Saniora Accuses Iran of Hindering Presidential Settlement
Naharnet/December 30/15/Head of the Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc MP Fouad Saniora stressed that Mustaqbal Movement leader MP Saad Hariri is committed to the proposal he made on ending the presidential deadlock, reported various media on Wednesday. Saniora stated that the initiative has not collapsed and that it will be revitalized after the holiday season is over, added al-Mustaqbal daily. He meanwhile accused Iran of hampering efforts to end the impasse. Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun and some Christian March 14 coalition parties are also behind the obstruction of the proposal, said the former premier. Saniora later said that Hariri's proposal “could not have seen the light without an indirect Saudi-Iranian understanding.” “Tehran later backed down on the agreement, which was also hampered by Aoun's stances,” he noted according to As Safir newspaper. Hariri had proposed the nomination of Marada Movement leader MP Suleiman Franjieh as president as part of a greater settlement that would revitalize the political scene in Lebanon. The move was met by reservations from Aoun and Hariri's allies in the March 14 camp, the Kataeb Party and Lebanese Forces.

Report: Army Still Awaits Saudi Grant, Will Make no Statements
Naharnet/December 30/15/The Lebanese army is still waiting for the Saudi grant to purchase French weapons following declarations by some officials that it has kicked off, amid reports saying that it will make no statement before receiving the arms, al-Joumhouria daily reported on Wednesday. “The Lebanese army is waiting to see what will happen to the Saudi grant after announcements made by more than one official that it has kicked off. The army will not make any statement before receiving the arms particularly that it had already submitted a list of the weapons needed to the French authorities,” a senior military source told the daily. “Washington continues to support and arm the army and the U.S. ammunition continues to arrive to it warehouses according to its needs. They have never been cut off,” added the source. “The British are also equipping the regiments on the land border and there is numerous aid arriving from several countries.”In June, reports said that the Saudi grant was reportedly frozen over stances by some Lebanese officials regarding Riyadh's war against Shiite Huthi rebels in Yemen. Saudi Arabia is leading an Arab coalition that launched an air war on the Huthi rebels and their allies in Yemen on March 26. In April, Lebanon received the first shipment of $3 billion worth of French arms under a Saudi-financed deal to boost the country's defensive capabilities to combat terror threats, along its northeastern border in particular. The deal was first announced in December 2013. France is expected to deliver 250 combat and transport vehicles, seven Cougar helicopters, three small Corvette warships and a range of surveillance and communications equipment over four years as part of the $3 billion (2.8 billion-euro) modernization program. It is being entirely funded by Saudi Arabia, which is keen to see Lebanon's army defend its borders against jihadist groups, particularly the Islamic State group and al-Nusra Front. The contract also promises seven years of training for the 70,000-strong Lebanese army and 10 years of equipment maintenance. “The army operation carried out in Dar al-Wassa in West Bekaa two days ago has proven that the army will not allow crime and kidnapping cells to flourish. They will be hunted down,” the source added. It assured that operations will carry on in the said area because the security situation has deteriorated to “unacceptable levels in Deir al-Ahmar, Baalbek and the neighboring area.” One soldier was killed and four troops were wounded in a clash that erupted on Monday with members of the Jaafar family in the Bekaa area of Dar al-Wasaa following an army raid.

Bekaa Man Killed in Landmine Blast near Syria's Border
Naharnet/December 30/15/A 44-year-old Lebanese man was killed Wednesday by a landmine blast in the outskirts of the Bekaa town of Maaraboun near Syria's border, state-run National News Agency reported. Earlier media reports had said the blast was caused by a shell fired from an unknown place. “A military expert confirmed that the citizen Hikmat Abdul Raouf Moussa, 44, was killed by the explosion of a landmine planted in Maaraboun's outskirts near the Syrian border,” state-run National News Agency said. The town borders the Syrian town of Sirghaya. “The victim was a father of five who worked as a passenger van driver,” NNA said. Several Bekaa towns have repeatedly come under rocket attacks from Syria in recent years. The attacks were claimed by extremist militant groups who argued that their action was in retaliation to Hizbullah's military intervention in Syria.

Jumblat Travels to Cairo on 'Non-Political' Trip
Naharnet/December 30/15/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat traveled to Egypt on Tuesday on a visit that extends to the end of the current week, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Wednesday. It said that the trip does not have a political agenda. PSP sources told the daily: “Consultations with the Egyptian leadership are always open and they are aimed at keeping touch with the Arab world and finding out what is being planned for us in light of the Syrian and Yemeni conflicts.” Jumblat had hoped ahead of his departure from Beirut that the new year would witness the election of a president, which would restore normalcy at state institutions.

Israel Army Chief Inspects Golan Front amid Tensions with Hizbullah
Naharnet/December 30/15/Israeli army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot toured the Syrian frontier in the occupied Golan Heights on Wednesday amid high tensions with Hizbullah that followed the assassination of top operative Samir al-Quntar. Northern Command chief Aviv Kochavi and Galilee Division commander Amir Baram accompanied Eisenkot on his tour, the website of Israel's Yediot Aharonot newspaper reported. The Israeli army has “taken heed of Hizbullah Secretary General (Sayyed) Hassan Nasrallah's recent warnings in the wake of the targeted killing of Samir Quntar, which Nasrallah and others attributed to Israel,” the website quoted Israeli army sources as saying. "We take Nasrallah's statements in his speeches very seriously and are preparing for them," said the sources but added that "Hizbullah also takes what we say seriously."On Monday, the Israeli army carried out a military drill in the occupied Shebaa Farms. “A series of explosions were heard in the towns of al-Orqoub during a maneuver for the Israeli enemy's army on the eastern peripheries of the occupied Shebaa Farms,” Lebanon's National News Agency reported. Tensions surged between Israel and Hizbullah in recent days after the party accused Israel's air force of carrying out a raid that killed Samir al-Quntar near Damascus. On Sunday, Hizbullah chief Nasrallah reiterated a pledge that his group will retaliate to the assassination. “The retaliation to Samir's assassination will inevitably come,” Nasrallah vowed, noting that the timing and place of the response is now in the hands of Hizbullah's fighters and military commanders. “The Israelis are hiding like rats along the border … The Israelis are worried and they should be worried -- along the border and inside Israel. Their threats will not benefit them,” Nasrallah said. Hizbullah played a key role in Quntar's release from prison after he had spent 30 years in Israeli jails, becoming known as the longest-serving Arab prisoner. Shortly after his release, Quntar joined Hizbullah. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said he became "head of the Syrian Resistance for the Liberation of the Golan," a group launched two years ago by Hizbullah in the Syrian region, most of which Israel seized in the 1967 Middle East war.

Saudi anti-terrorism coalition raises eyebrows in Lebanon
Sami Nader/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
Saudi Arabia's recent decision to launch the Islamic Military Alliance immediately prompted a plethora of both supportive and hostile reactions in Lebanon. The terrorism-fighting coalition supposedly includes Lebanon and 33 other countries, but excludes Iran, Syria and Iraq. Representatives of several countries said they were unaware they had been enlisted as coalition members when it was announced Dec. 15.
As some parties in Lebanon supported the step — such as the Future Movement, a Sunni force allied with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia — others such as the pro-Iran Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement rushed to object. This deepened the already heated domestic division between pro-Iranian and pro-Saudi parties in Lebanon. It has also heated up the Lebanese political scene and weakened the government, in light of the different ministerial stances on the Saudi initiative. Lebanon is still far from achieving a democratic debate that strictly focuses on its own national interests and not that of its sponsors, whether Iran or Saudi Arabia. While some Arab and international countries such as Britain, Turkey and Egypt officially confirmed their support for the Saudi-led alliance — even Moscow announced that it would “examine” the Islamic military coalition — Lebanon failed to take a unified official stance regarding the initiative.The Lebanese Foreign Ministry issued an official statement Dec. 15 saying it had "no knowledge of the topic and was by no means consulted.” The statement argued that what happened “impinges on both Lebanon and the Foreign Ministry prerogatives.”
However, the next day, Lebanese Prime Minister Tammam Salam welcomed the initiative and said, “Lebanon is at the forefront of the confrontation with terrorism. Its army, forces and security apparatuses are fighting a daily battle against terrorist groups.” Kataeb Party representative and Labor Minister Sejaan Azzi said Dec. 16, “Lebanon is a secular state that can join neither an Islamic nor a Christian coalition.”Minister of the Displaced Alice Chabtini said in a Dec. 15 radio interview with Voice of Lebanon that she was not informed of “Lebanon's decision to join the military Islamic coalition.” Chabtini is a close associate of former President Michel Suleiman, a general who staunchly believes Lebanon needs to distance itself from regional conflicts. Just a few hours after the coalition was announced, pro-Riyadh stances came in. Saad Hariri, leader of the predominantly Sunni Future Movement, said in a press release the “step is historic” and aims to confront a “political, security and intellectual dilemma threatening both the Islamic existence and the Islamic coexistence with the international community.” Hariri praised the Saudi leadership.
In a striking contrast, Hezbollah said Dec. 17 that the coalition was formed “hastily and in a suspicious way, which raises many questions.” Iran-supported Hezbollah, which accused Saudi Arabia of spreading "extremist and radical terrorist ideology," also questioned the kingdom's competence to lead the coalition.
This is a brief account of the stances that support either Saudi Arabia or Iran, in light of the conflict playing out in Yemen, Syria and Iraq between these two regional powers. Regardless of that conflict, shouldn't Lebanon be interested in such a coalition, especially considering that terrorism is threatening the country once again? The explosion that rocked the southern suburb of Burj el-Barajneh on Nov. 12 is convincing evidence of this threat. Hezbollah, the most critical opponent of the initiative, is the most vulnerable to the threat, be it in its battles in Syria or in the bloody bombings targeting its popular strongholds like those that took place in Haret Hreik in December 2014, or Bir el-Abed in July 2013.
Gen. Khalil Helou, a retired Lebanese army officer, told Al-Monitor it would not be wise to ignore the Saudi initiative. Given Lebanon’s state of war with terrorism, he said it would be in the country's best interest “if Saudi Arabia spearheaded this confrontation," especially considering Saudi Arabia’s Sunni, Druze and Christian allies in Lebanon. Amid boiling sectarianism and Sunni extremism, Helou noted that Saudi Arabia represents moderate Sunnis. According to Helou, there is no doubt that Saudi Arabia aims to stop the Islamic State from mobilizing Sunnis. So far, IS has exploited the Sunni feeling of suppression and marginalization. (It is worth noting that the suicide bomber who conducted the Jabal Mohsen attack on Jan. 10 was a Sunni Lebanese recruited by IS.)
“Only a Sunni power can confront the Sunni extremist forces. Any other method will only deepen the sectarian turmoil and pave the way for an extremist wave,” Helou said. The military expert concluded by saying that being hostile to Saudi Arabia and launching campaigns against it is not appropriate, especially since the Saudis in January 2014 offered the Lebanese army $3 billion to buy weapons. Nearly $1 billion has already been spent, Helou said, adding, “Coordination with Saudi Arabia is a must.”Helou may be right. Perhaps Lebanon ought to coordinate with Saudi Arabia, given the latter’s support and its efforts in confronting the common threat. Add to this that Saudi Arabia exemplifies Sunni moderation. However, if full commitment to the coalition might be deemed as a bias toward Saudi Arabia in light of the growing Saudi-Iran conflict, then a third, purely Lebanese, option ought to be considered: Lebanon should fully coordinate with the Islamic military coalition without joining it, in accordance with the principle of neutrality that guarantees Lebanon’s stability. Will someone bring this option to the table?

Canada congratulates Government of Iraq on raising Iraqi flag in Ramadi
December 29, 2015 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Stéphane Dion, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today congratulated the Government of Iraq on raising the Iraqi flag in Ramadi, Iraq:
“Canada commends the Iraqi government and armed forces for their perseverance in liberating Ramadi. This advance is the latest in a series of losses for ISIL [Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant]. ISIL has been driven out of territories and cities across the country by Iraqi forces, with support from the global coalition, including Canada.
“Canada will support the Government of Iraq as it continues to clear Ramadi and other ISIL-held areas.
“This remains a long fight, but the coalition’s strategy to build up capacity in Iraq’s armed forces is succeeding. We will continue to stand with the Iraqi people until ISIL is defeated.”

Concentrated Russian air strikes may open Syrian-Hizballah door to Israeli border
DEBKAfile Special Report December 30, 2015
(Sheikh Maskin-Syrian Army’s 82nd Brigade base)
Israel’s military and political leaders became intensely anxious Tuesday, Dec. 29, when they saw how concentrated Russian air strikes were swiftly dislodging anti-Assad rebels from southern Syria and beginning to open the door for the Syrian and Hizballah armies to come dangerously close to the Israeli border.
debkafile’s military and intelligence sources report that Russian air strikes in other parts of the country have tapered off. Instead, heavy Russian bombardments are giving the combined Syrian-Hizballah force its first chance to recover Sheikh Maskin, the southern town housing the Syrian Army’s 82nd Brigade which has been passing from hand to hand for months. If the rebels lose that fierce battle, the way will be clear for the combined pro-Assad force to advance on the two key southern towns, Deraa and Quneitra on the Golan. The rebel groups assaulted by the Russian air force Tuesday included moderate, pro-Western, pro-Israeli militias, such as the Southern Front and the First Column. Both suffered heavy casualties. IDF unease as a result of Russia’s aerial intervention in the fighting in southern Syria is rising in proportion to the current military tensions with Hizballah. If the Lebanese Shiite terrorists manage to get the late Samir Quntar’s anti-Israel terror Front for the Liberation of Golan up and running, the Israeli air force would be severely hampered in launching its own strikes against this enemy by the dozens of Russian bombers using the same patch of sky without pause. On the face of it, Moscow and Jerusalem make a show of their smooth air force collaboration in Syrian air space. But this picture is wide of the situation: The Russian air force omitted to notify Israel ahead of its massive bombardment close to its border Tuesday. Some Israeli official circles suspect that Moscow is deliberately bringing Israel under pressure to accept a deal for southern Syria. One of President Vladimir Putin’s main objects from the outset of Russian’s military buildup in Syria was to eradicate the rebels in the South and the threat they posed to the Assad regime in Damascus. More than once, Putin suggested to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu that they work out a Russian-Israeli deal for that part of Syria. The Israeli leader was unresponsive, mainly because Israel is bound by prior understandings to coordination with the US, Jordan and moderate Syrian rebel groups. A deal with Moscow would counter those understandings. However, The concentrated air strikes in the border region is intended by the Kremlin, according to some views, not just to push the rebels out, but to twist Israel’s arm for settling the issue with Moscow.

U.N. Offers to Help Iraqi Refugees Return to Ramadi
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 30/15/U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon offered Wednesday to help Iraq restore basic services to Ramadi and allow refugees to quickly return to the city after it was recaptured from jihadists. Ban made the offer during a telephone conversation with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi who visited Ramadi after his forces drove out Islamic State fighters. Describing the recapture of Ramadi as "an important victory," Ban "stressed the need for measures to be taken to restore the rule of law as well as basic services in Ramadi as to allow for the return of internally displaced persons as soon as possible."He offered U.N. support, said a statement from his spokesman. Iraqi officials on Wednesday described widespread destruction in Ramadi from months of fighting with more than 3,000 homes ruined and roadside bombs and other explosive devices strewn across the city. Ban also expressed concern over the abduction of Qatari nationals in Iraq in December and urged Abadi "to do everything possible to ensure their prompt and safe return."The 26 Qatari nationals were on a falconry expedition in southern Iraq when they were abducted at their camp by gunmen who turned up in dozens of pick-up trucks. Among those kidnapped are members of the Qatari royal family. Ban said the group included children.

Bahrain F-16 Crashes in Saudi near Yemen Border as Rebels Fire Ballistic Missile
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 30/15/A Bahraini fighter jet taking part in the Saudi-led coalition battling rebel forces in Yemen crashed Wednesday in Saudi Arabia due to a "technical error," the alliance said. The F-16 jet crashed in the kingdom's southwestern region of Jazan near the border with Yemen, the coalition said in a statement on the official SPA news agency. The Bahrain Defense Force general command confirmed that the jet crashed "while carrying out its national duty in defending the southern borders" of Saudi Arabia. The pilot was "saved and is in good health," it said, adding that the plane's wreckage had been found and that an investigation had been launched. The crash comes a day after Bahrain said that three of its soldiers had died "in an incident" along the Saudi border with Yemen. It did not say how or when they had died. Eight Bahraini troops have been killed as part of the coalition, which was launched by Saudi Arabia in March to tackle Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen. The Bahraini jet is the second coalition F-16 to crash after a Moroccan plane went down during a mission over Yemen in May. Its pilot was later found dead and his body was returned home. The coalition said that crash had been caused by a technical fault or human error, and it denied rebel claims that they downed the plane. The rebel sabanews.net website said meanwhile that insurgents fired a "ballistic missile" early Wednesday on the southern Saudi port of Jizan, which they claimed "precisely hit its target."But the coalition said that Saudi Arabia's defence forces safely intercepted the missile, destroying the warhead as well as its launcher in Yemen, according to a statement on SPA. The rebels have intensified rocket attacks across the Saudi border during the past week, prompting the coalition to threaten severe reprisals. The alliance has been backing forces loyal to Yemeni President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi's internationally recognized government with air strikes, ground troops, and weaponry, in addition to training. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which play key roles in the coalition, have lost the most troops in the campaign. One Qatari soldier has also died. More than 80 people, including civilians, have been killed on Saudi Arabia's southern front with Yemen since March. Sudan has also deployed troops in Yemen while Kuwaiti media reported this week that the emirate has decided to send ground forces.

Brussels Cancels New Year's Festivities over Terror Threat, Detains New Suspect
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 30/15/The annual New Year's Eve festivities and fireworks in the heart of Brussels have been canceled for security reasons, the mayor announced on Wednesday, as the Belgian capital remains on high alert over a possible terror threat. "Unfortunately we have been forced to cancel the fireworks and all that was planned for tomorrow (Thursday) evening and that would have brought a lot of people together in the center of Brussels, following a risk analysis by the crisis center," mayor Yvan Mayeur told Belgian broadcaster RTBF. Last year, some 100,000 people turned out to watch the traditional New Year's Eve fireworks display at the Place de Brouckere. Mayeur said in the current circumstances it wasn't possible to "guarantee that we can check everyone coming to the event". "It's better not to take any risks," he added.
The Belgian capital, home to the headquarters of NATO and the European Union, has been on high alert since the November 13 gun and suicide bombing attacks in Paris that left 130 dead. A key suspect in the Paris attacks, Belgian-born fugitive Salah Abdeslam, is believed to have fled to Brussels in the hours after the massacre, which was claimed by the Islamic State jihadist group. The Belgian authorities have so far detained nine men in the case including four accused of helping Abdeslam get away from the crime scenes. Earlier Wednesday, Belgian police held a man for questioning following a new search in the troubled Brussels immigrant neighborhood of Molenbeek in connection with the Paris attacks. Earlier this week, Belgian police arrested two people suspected of plotting attacks in Brussels during New Year festivities, with officers seizing military-style training uniforms, computer hardware and Islamic State propaganda material.

Israel Plays Down U.S. Spying Scandal
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 30/15/An Israeli minister and close ally of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought Wednesday to play down revelations the United States monitored the premier's private communications. "I didn't fall off my chair from The Wall Street Journal report," Yuval Steinitz, minister of energy and a former intelligence minister, said on public radio. The WSJ said Tuesday that the U.S. National Security Agency monitored Netanyahu's conversations as he campaigned against the nuclear deal with Iran that was eventually agreed in July. In March, Israel denied reports in the newspaper that its security forces spied on the negotiations between Tehran and major powers. "Israel does not spy on or in the United States; we adhere to that rule, and one could expect others to do the same," said Steinitz, who was in charge of the Iranian file while intelligence minister between 2013 and 2015. "But we are not naive. We know that countries -- even friendly ones -- try to collect intelligence on us, and we conduct ourselves accordingly," he said. Steinitz did not mention the case of American Jonathan Pollard, whom U.S. authorities freed in November after he had spent 30 years in jail for spying for Israel. He reaffirmed the friendship between Israel and the United States, "our greatest and most important friend," and stressed the two countries' "excellent cooperation" on intelligence matters. "I don't think it caused us damage," he said of the WSJ report. Netanyahu's office, as well as the spokesman of the foreign ministry, declined to comment on the report. For its part, the White House has not denied the Tuesday report but emphasized the depth of its relationship with Israel.

Thousands of Homes Destroyed in Iraq's Ramadi
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/December 30/15/Months of fighting in Ramadi have caused extensive destruction, officials said Wednesday, warning that it was too soon for civilians to return to the Iraqi city after its recapture from jihadists. Iraqi forces declared victory on Sunday night in the Ramadi battle after wresting back control of the city's central government complex from the Islamic State group. Some jihadist fighters have yet to be flushed out, mostly on the eastern edge of the city, and many reconquered areas have yet to be fully cleared of roadside bombs and booby traps. "There is extensive destruction in the city as a result of terrorist activity and military operations," said Ibrahim al-Osej, a member of the Ramadi district council. IS fighters had laid thousands of explosive devices across Ramadi as part of their defense against an offensive that was launched on December 22 by elite federal forces. The U.S.-led coalition supporting the Iraqi effort to reclaim the city, which was lost to IS in May, has also carried out around 630 air strikes in the Ramadi area since July. "Preliminary estimates show that more than 3,000 homes have been completely destroyed" in Ramadi, which lies around 100 kilometers (60 miles) west of Baghdad, Osej said. He said that the figure would grow because assessments could not be immediately carried out in some neighborhoods that had not been cleared of mines. "Thousands of other homes have suffered varying degrees of damage," Osej said. "All water, electricity, sewage and other infrastructure -- such as bridges, government facilities, hospitals and schools -- have suffered some degree of damage," he said. In the center of Ramadi, which lies on the Euphrates river, "there are five bridges in various states of destruction," U.S. operations officer Major Michael Filanowski said Wednesday. "For all of them at least the span has dropped," he said, adding that he estimated it would take at least weeks to repair them. Civilians began fleeing Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province, two years ago when tensions escalated there, and the exodus has continued until this week. A few hundred families who had remained holed up in their homes during the fighting were evacuated by the army on Tuesday and taken to a facility in Habbaniyah, east of Ramadi. The residents of Anbar account for more than a third of the 3.2 million people who have been displaced by conflict in Iraq since the start of 2014, according to the International Organization for Migration.

1 mln migrants came to Europe by sea this year: U.N.
The Associated Press, Berlin Wednesday, 30 December 2015/The U.N. refugee agency said Wednesday that the number of migrants who’ve arrived in Europe by sea this year now tops 1 million. The U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees’ announcement came only a week after the International Organization for Migration said the total number of people arriving in Europe this year had topped a million - including 34,215 who arrived across land borders. UNHCR said 1,000,573 people have now arrived by boat during the year - 844,176 of them landing in Greece and 152,700 in Italy. Spain reported 3,592 arrivals and Malta 105. The count is based on police and coast guard data and estimates stemming from refugee registration in Greece; data and estimates from government, police and UNHCR in Italy; and police and government data from Spain and Malta. Of those who arrived, 49 percent came from Syria and 21 percent from Afghanistan. Another 3,735 people were counted as dead or missing, UNHCR said. Germany has received more migrants than any other European Union nation - including, in the early part of 2015, large numbers from southeastern European nations such as Albania, Kosovo and Serbia. Bavaria’s social affairs minister, Emilia Mueller, said Wednesday that nearly 1.1 million migrants have arrived in Germany this year, most of them via Bavaria, news agency dpa reported. She underscored the Bavarian state government’s insistence that “we now need more urgently than ever an effective limitation of immigration.”

Two blasts hit Kurdish-controlled city in Syria
Reuters, Beirut Thursday, 31 December 2015/Twin suicide bomb blasts hit two restaurants in a Kurdish-controlled city in northeastern Syria on Wednesday, killing or wounding dozens of people, a Kurdish official and a group monitoring the war said. The explosions took place in Qamishli, near the Turkish border, the Kurdish YPG militia's Redur Xelil told Reuters. He said it had most likely been carried out by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) which the YPG is fighting in Syria's northeast, and that dozens were believed to have been killed or wounded. The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said at least 30 people had been killed or wounded.

Baghdad, Ankara bicker over Turkish troops in Iraq
Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 30 December 2015/Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on Wednesday that Turkey had not respected a commitment to withdraw its troops from northern Iraq. He reaffirmed, during a call to the Turkish prime ministers, that he refuses any military Turkish presence in Iraq without the knowledge and consent of Baghdad. Abadi said in a statement that a Turkish delegation to Iraq had promised to announce upon returning to Ankara that Turkey would withdraw its troops, “but the Turkish government has not respected the agreement and we request that the Turkish government announce immediately that it will withdraw from Iraqi territory.”However, Reuters quoted Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu as saying “if Baghdad wants to use force, it should be against ISIS after his Iraqi counterpart threatened possible military action over Turkish troops deployed in northern Iraq. Speaking during an interview on NTV, Davutoglu acknowledged there had been "miscommunication" over the troop deployment. He said that Ankara respected Iraqi sovereignty but added that Baghdad is not in control one third of its own territory. Turkey announced earlier that it had begun withdrawing troops in a bid to soothe a bitter row with Baghdad and following a call from U.S. President Barack Obama. “Taking into account the sensitivities on the Iraqi side... Turkey will continue the process it has already begun to withdraw its troops stationed” near Mosul, the Turkish foreign ministry said. Earlier this month, Turkey deployed troops to a base in Nineveh province where it has a long-running training program for forces battling the ISIS group. Ankara insisted the deployment was routine and necessary to protect the trainers, while Baghdad said it was unauthorized and protested to the U.N. Security Council. with Reuters

Saudi says Syria rebel chief killing doesn’t serve peace
AFP, Riyadh Wednesday, 30 December 2015/The killing of a Syrian rebel chief in an air raid last week does not serve the peace process in the war-ravaged country, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said Tuesday. Zahran Alloush, the head of the Saudi-backed Jaish al-Islam, the foremost rebel group in Damascus province, was killed on Friday in a strike claimed by Syria’s government. “Attempts to assassinate leaderships fighting Daesh do not serve the peace process and (efforts) to achieve a political solution in Syria,” Jubeir said, using the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group. “I don’t know what the Russians have in mind,” he told reporters, in reference to the killing. The minister was speaking at a joint news conference in Riyadh with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. Jaish al-Islam has fought off both Syrian government forces and ISIS militants in its Eastern Ghouta bastion, east of Damascus. It even agreed to eventual peace talks with the regime of Bashar al-Assad, during an unprecedented meeting in Riyadh this month of various Syrian opposition groups. Analysts have warned that Alloush’s killing could also thwart potential peace talks between the regime and the opposition, which the U.N. announced could begin next month. Saudi Arabia is a key backer of Syrian rebel groups battling Assad’s regime, and Jubeir reiterated previous demands that Assad be removed from power. Cavusoglu echoed his counterpart’s calls. “Our views on Syria match. We cannot reach a solution with Assad’s presence,” he said. Separately, he said the majority of Russia’s air strikes on Syria are not targeting ISIS. “If you are really willing to confront IS, then let us agree and eliminate it,” he said, addressing Russia which he accused of having “goals other than eliminating ISIS.” A bitter diplomatic row flared between Moscow and Ankara, which back different sides in Syria’s war, after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet on its border with Syria at the end of November. Russia says its armed forces have conducted 5,240 sorties in Syria since launching its bombing campaign on September 30. Moscow had accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his family of involvement in the illegal oil trade with ISIS militants, claims Ankara has strongly denied. Erdogan arrived on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia, where he held talks with King Salman. The leaders discussed mutual relations, regional developments, as well as “cooperation in confronting terrorism and radicalism,” said Jubeir. They also discussed the 34-nation military coalition against “terrorism” announced by the kingdom this month, he said. Both leaders also spoke of their “willingness” to form a joint strategic coordination council that would supervise cooperation in the fields of security, military, politics, economy, as well as energy and culture, he added.

Saudi envoy to Iraq repeats call for militants to surrender
Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 30 December 2015/Saudi ambassador to Iraq Thamer al-Sabhan told Al-Arabiya News that calls for Saudis involved in the fighting alongside extremist groups in Iraq - such as the ISIS and al-Nusra Front - to hand themselves over, is still on. He added that if these fighters hand themselves over, this will be taken into consideration during litigation and trials. Sabhan's statements come after Iraqi forces launched operations to liberate ISIS-controlled areas, such as the city of Diyala and Ramadi, a city in the Sunni-majority Anbar province, and after ISIS fighters fled and were besieged after cutting supplies to them and their families. "The call (on these fighters to hand themselves) has been on for years. Saudi Arabia treats those who hand themselves over differently than those arrested, and it takes this into consideration during trials. Saudi Arabia opens its arms to whomever desires to return home and the Saudi embassy in Iraq offers all its services to receive them, get them out of conflict zones and free them of ISIS' grip," the envoy said. Sabhan who is currently in Iraq with his diplomatic team also said so far they have not received any requests neither via direct communication with those who desire to return home nor via the Iraqi government. He added that ISIS prevented fighters from handing themselves over by killing them. Regarding Iraq's decision to participate in the Islamic military alliance which the Saudi kingdom recently formed, Sabhan said the issue has not yet been discussed with the Iraqi relevant authorities via the embassy. "We know well that the Iraqis have suffered from terrorism for years. Hopefully, we cooperate with Iraq in the field of combating terrorism."

Turkey arrests 2 ISIS suspects over NYE attack plot
AFP, Ankara Wednesday, 30 December 2015/Turkish police have arrested in Ankara two suspected suicide bombers linked to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militant group who were plotting an attack on New Year’s Eve in the capital, a Turkish official told AFP on Wednesday. “They are suspected of being affiliated with ISIS and were planning an attack on the New Year in Ankara,” the official said, asking not to be named. Counter-terror police arrested the two people in the Mamak district in the outskirts of the capital, the private NTV television reported. Turkey is on high security alert after 103 people were killed on October 10 when two suicide bombers ripped through a crowd of peace activists in Ankara, the worst attack in modern Turkey's history. That attack was blamed on ISIS, like two other deadly strikes in the country's Kurdish-dominated southeast earlier in the summer. Turkish authorities have over the past months cracked down on the group's so-called “sleeper cells” throughout the country. The arrests come a month after authorities foiled another plot to stage a major attack in Istanbul on the same day as the deadly gun and suicide attacks in Paris that claimed nearly 130 lives.

Emergency measures as Tehran records 18th day of bad air
AFP, Tehran Wednesday, 30 December 2015/More than two weeks of heavy pollution led Iranian officials to ban all outdoor sport and impose new traffic restrictions on Wednesday as persistent cold weather exacerbated Tehran’s air quality problems. In the worst concerted period of pollution for three years, primary schools and nurseries were closed and new car exclusion zones imposed in the capital. Tehran’s air quality index averaged 159 on Wednesday, up two from the previous day, and more than three times the World Health Organization’s maximum advised level of between zero and 50. One area in northeastern Tehran peaked at 238. The official IRNA news agency reported that it was the 18th straight day of dangerously bad air while newspapers quoted officials casting blame on each other for the problem and failure to tackle it. “Our preference was to close all schools but the education ministry insisted on keeping high schools open because of final term exams,” said Mohammad Heydarzadeh, secretary of Tehran’s emergency air pollution committee. The cold weather is causing climate inversion - where emissions from car exhausts hang in the air rather than rising into the atmosphere above. A decade-long central restriction zone based on car number plates was in place across the city on Wednesday, traffic police announced. Vehicles with plates ending in an odd number can’t go out on Saturday, Monday and Wednesday, while cars with even numbered plates are banned on Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. Sand and cement factories around the capital are banned from operating until Friday, the end of the Iranian week, Heydarzadeh said. All outdoor sport activities are banned, he added, including professional football league matches. Exhaust fumes from the five million cars and almost as many motorcycles that ply Tehran’s roads account for 80 percent of its pollution, officials say. Two permanent zones of traffic restrictions introduced in 1979 and 2005 have failed to rectify Tehran’s poor air quality. While Tehran is the epicentre the pollution also closed primary schools in other major cities including Isfahan, Qom, Arak and Tabriz. Weather forecasters predicted that air quality would improve after expected rainfall on Wednesday evening.

Bahraini F-16 jet crashes in Saudi near Yemen border
Staff Writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 30 December 2015/According to the coalition forces in Yemen, a Bahrain F-16 fighter jet has crashed on Wednesday in southern Saudi Arabia close to the Yemen border in Jizan. The fighter jet had experienced technical failure but its pilot has survived the crash. A statement by the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia and released by the Saudi Press Agency said that to "the Bahraini air force pilot participating in the coalition managed to escape after his plane crashed in Jizan region on Wednesday morning after a technical malfunction." Bahrain has taken part in the Saudi-led coalition that has been bombing Iran-allied Houthi militias for nine months, and scores of ground forces from the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have been killed since the start of the conflict. In a separate incident, Bahrain's official news agency BNA reported on Tuesday that three of its servicemen were killed along Saudi Arabia's southern border.

Bahrain jails 29 over bomb attack on police
Staff Writer, Al Arabiya News Wednesday, 30 December 2015/At least 29 people in Bahrain were handed down jail sentences ranging from five years to life imprisonment on terror charges on Wednesday, according to Bahrain News Agency. Terror Crime Prosecution Chief Advocate, General Ahmed Al-Hammadi, confirmed that the High Criminal Court handed out the sentences. According to the news report: “The convictions relate to attempted murder of policemen, using and possessing explosives and weapons, rioting, and receiving and providing explosives, training in order to commit terrorist crimes.”Al-Hammadi stated that Bahrain’s High Criminal Court revoked the citizenship of two individuals and ordered twenty seven defendants to pay heavy fines for damages. The suspects were charged for an incident that took place Dec. 19, 2014, when the individuals in question detonated an explosive device with the intent of murdering policemen. The explosion caused injuries to security personnel and damage to patrol vehicles.

Saudi Ministy of Labor to count children of non-Saudi fathers as citizens
Saudi Gazette, Riyadh Wednesday, 30 December 2015/Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Labor has clarified that the children of Saudi women from non-Saudi husbands will be considered as citizens under the Nitaqat Saudization program whether their mothers are dead or alive. “According to a decision taken by the Council of Ministers in 2012 (1433H), the children of Saudi women married to foreign men are entitled to have certain rights. These rights include allowing them to work in private sector firms without transferring their sponsorship, considering them as Saudi citizens in education and medical care, and counting them Saudi citizens with regard to Nitaqat program in the private sector,” the ministry said in a statement carried by the Saudi Press Agency. The ministry denied press reports that these children will not be considered as citizens in the Nitaqat program after the death of their Saudi mothers. “As long the son of a Saudi woman from a non-Saudi husband lives in the Kingdom, he will be counted as a Saudi citizen in Nitaqat program whether his mother is dead or alive. The ministry follows this directive strictly ever since it has been adopted by the Council of Ministers,” the ministry said. The clarification comes in the wake of a recent statement from Deputy Minister Ahmed Al-Humaidan, saying that children of Saudi women from non-Saudi husbands will not be considered as citizens in the Nitaqat program after the death of their mothers. When the mother dies, her offspring from a non-Saudi father will automatically lose the privilege of being Saudi citizens in the Nitaqat program, he said. There are 700,000 Saudi women who are married to non-Saudis, representing around 10 percent of the overall population, according to a Ministry of Justice report issued in 2012.

U.S. chides Russia over civilian deaths in Syria
The Associated Press, Washington Wednesday, 30 December 2015/The United States criticized Russia on Tuesday for killing hundreds of civilians in airstrikes in Syria and accused Moscow of undermining hopes for a cease-fire between Bashar Assad’s government and leading rebel groups. The surprisingly sharp critique came as Washington banked on Moscow’s help to launch a Syrian peace process that would allow both countries to focus on defeating ISIS. Negotiations between representatives of Assad’s government and the opposition were expected to start next month, though hurdles remain. Amid reports of indiscriminate killing by Russia, including the use of cluster bombs, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov earlier this week to share his concerns. U.S. officials wouldn’t describe Lavrov’s response. “The reports of Russian attacks on Syrian civilians are extremely disturbing,” State Department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters Tuesday. Activist accounts suggest Russian strikes “killed hundreds of civilians, including first responders” and “hit medical facilities, schools and markets,” he said. The campaign uprooted some 130,000 Syrians in October and the first half of November alone, Toner said. An Amnesty International report last week cited evidence of Russian use of cluster munitions and unguided bombs in populated residential areas. The group denounced what it called Russia’s “shameful failure” to acknowledge civilian killings. Russia immediately rejected the claims, calling them “clichés and fakes.”While Toner didn’t endorse all of the findings directly, he said the U.S. has “seen a marked and troubling increase in reports of civilian casualties since Russia commenced its air campaign there” in late September.

U.S. ‘still spying’ on Netanyahu communications
AFP, Washington Wednesday, 30 December 2015/The United States continues to spy on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s communications despite promising to curtail the hacking of its allies, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday. Contacted by AFP, the White House did not deny the report, which cites several serving and former U.S. officials, but stressed the importance of its ongoing close ties with Israel. The Israeli embassy refused to comment. Two years ago, after rogue intelligence contractor Edward Snowden revealed the vast extent of the National Security Agency’s online surveillance, President Barack Obama promised to limit spying on U.S. allies. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel had been embarrassed by the revelation that her cellphone had been monitored and other allies expressed private concerns about the breadth of NSA monitoring. But, according to Journal report, Obama decided there was a “compelling national security purpose” in continuing to monitor some leaders, including Netanyahu and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The U.S. administration decided not to remove or disable the “cyber-implants” it had secreted on foreign communications systems, as they would be hard to replace. Instead, the report says, Obama ordered that some of the hacked systems used by close allies would not be routinely monitored by the NSA, while others would continue to be mined for intel. “Going dark on Bibi? Of course we wouldn’t do that,” one senior U.S. official told the Journal, speaking on condition of anonymity. In Netanyahu’s case, Washington was concerned that Israel was itself monitoring U.S. negotiations with Iran and might try to derail the effort to reach a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program.

Israel arrests Jews over celebration of toddler death
AFP, Jerusalem Wednesday, 30 December 2015/Israeli police said on Tuesday they have arrested four Jewish men suspected of being among gun-waving extremists filmed celebrating the murder of a Palestinian toddler in a firebombing. They were shown in a wedding video, broadcast last week by an Israeli news channel, which spread online and drew strong condemnation from Israeli politicians including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “Four people have been arrested until now,” police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld told AFP. “An investigation was opened last week and, during this week, four people were arrested and are scheduled to appear tomorrow morning in front of a Jerusalem court” for a remand hearing, he said. “That’s in connection with the weapons that were at the wedding and other things.” He gave no further details, but Israeli public radio said among those arrested were the groom, a soldier who lent his assault rifle to another reveller and a former activist of the outlawed Kach extremist movement allegedly shown brandishing a weapon and calling for revenge against Arabs. The video showed guests dancing with guns, knives and at least one unlit Molotov cocktail, while slashing a picture of the toddler killed in the firebombing of his home that also fatally wounded his parents and was blamed on Jewish extremists. Media reported that the groom had previously been questioned over acts of “Jewish terrorism” while other guests were friends or relatives of suspects arrested over the July attack. Netanyahu called the video “shocking” and said it showed “the true face of a group that constitutes a danger to Israeli society and to the security of Israel”. In recent weeks, Israel has arrested a number of suspected Jewish extremists over the July 31 incident in the West Bank village of Duma. The fire killed 18-month-old Ali Saad Dawabsha, while his parents later died from severe burns. Ali’s four-year-old brother was the sole survivor from the immediate family. So far, no one has been charged. One of them, an 18-year-old settler, was put under house arrest on Tuesday after weeks in the custody of the Shin Bet domestic security service, media reported. He was ordered released on Monday, when prosecutors admitted that did not intend to charge him over the Duma killings, but over a 2013 assault on a Palestinian. He was held a further day while the prosecution appealed against his release.

Iranian navy test fires rockets near U.S. carrier
AFP, Washington Wednesday, 30 December 2015/The Iranian navy test fired several rockets near three Western warships including the USS Harry S Truman aircraft carrier last week, a U.S. military official said on Tuesday. Though the rockets were not fired toward any ship, their proximity to the warships - and several commercial vessels - sparked concern. “We look at this firing so close to the ships as highly provocative,” said the military official, who was not immediately authorized to be named. The official confirmed details of an NBC News report that said one rocket came within about 1,500 yards (meters) of the USS Truman as it transited the Strait of Hormuz. A French frigate and the USS Bulkeley destroyer were also in the area. The incident took place on December 26, shortly after the Iranian navy had announced via radio it was about to conduct a live-fire exercise and warned ships to steer clear. The official said the unguided rockets were fired from an Iranian navy “fast inshore attack craft” that was in Omani waters.
The Western vessels did not need to take evasive action, the official said.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey to set up ‘strategic cooperation council’: Saudi FM
Reuters, Riyadh Tuesday, 29 December 2015/Saudi Arabia and Turkey agreed on the need to set up a “strategic cooperation council” to strengthen military, economic and investment cooperation between the two countries, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said on Tuesday. “The meeting produced a desire to set up a high-level strategic cooperation council between the two countries,” Jubeir told a joint news conference with his Turkish counterpart after talks in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, between Saudi King Abdullah and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. He said the council will deal with security, military, economic, trade, energy and investment between the two countries.

Turkey’s foreign policy prospects for 2016 not so promising
Semih Idiz/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
A Turkish saying roughly translates to “You can tell what will happen Thursday by looking at Wednesday.” Viewed in this light, Turkey's 2015 foreign policy problems may shed light on what it will face in 2016.
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) could have moved cautiously, given Turkey’s dangerous geostrategic place on the map. Instead, AKP's Islamist/Sunni-based ideological orientation, and its overreaching ambitions laced with an inflated sense of Turkey’s abilities, resulted in a growing crop of conflicts between Turkey and its neighbors. One recent development in this regard came in late November when Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet it said had strayed into Turkish airspace while bombing Turkish-supported groups fighting the regime in northern Syria. This left Russian President Vladimir Putin fuming, accusing Turkey of “stabbing Russia in the back,” and shook Turkish-Russian relations to the core. In the past, relations were carefully calibrated to weather storms so as not to harm vast, mutual economic interests. Those ties are now in tatters. The nosedive in relations with Russia is set to complicate Ankara’s already difficult position in Syria and Iraq in 2016.
The downing of the Russian jet pushed Moscow into supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with greater determination, targeting anti-regime fighters with greater ferocity. It also increased Russia’s desire to see Turkey play a minimal role in international efforts to resolve the Syrian crisis.
Given the 18-month road map to resolve Syria's situation — a plan worked out in Vienna earlier this month — President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu are unlikely to achieve their long-lasting desire to see the back of Assad in 2016. Meanwhile, the alliance against the Islamic State (IS) between the United States and the Democratic Union Party (PYD), the umbrella organization of the Syrian Kurds that Turkey sees as a “terrorist organization,” is also likely to survive in 2016. The PYD's armed wing plays a significant role in the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is making serious advances against IS in northern Syria. Turkey could face a crisis early in 2016 when the SDF starts moving west of the Euphrates River. If this region comes under Syrian Kurdish control in any way, the Kurds will gain a corridor linking Kurdish northern Iraq with the Mediterranean Sea. Ankara has therefore declared the Euphrates a red line.
But with US support for the Syrian Kurds, who are also being courted by Russia, Ankara’s options to enforce that red line are limited. Turkey could try to convince the United States to prevent such a development, which would have negative consequences for the security and stability of Turkey, a NATO ally.
Washington is more likely, however, to urge Ankara to enter a dialogue with the PYD, despite its links to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is waging a war for Kurdish autonomy in Turkey. The United States will also continue to exhort the Syrian Kurds to refrain from actions that will give Ankara cause to complain. Turkey’s failed attempt earlier in December to deploy troops in the town of Bashiqa in Iraq near Mosul, also showed that Ankara does not have Washington’s automatic support when it comes to its unilateral decisions regarding Iraq, and that it is Washington that has leverage over Ankara.
Talking with Erdogan over the phone Dec. 18, US President Barack Obama insisted that the Turkish troops be withdrawn, in line with Baghdad’s demands, and called for Iraq’s sovereignty and territorial integrity to be respected. This was not just a blow to Turkey’s prestige, but also to its plans of gaining a military foothold in Iraq’s Sunni heartland. Ankara says it sent troops to Bashiqa to protect the camp where Turkish military personnel have been training local fighters against IS for months. But this clearly failed to allay doubts in the region, and in Washington, about its true motives. This development weakened Ankara’s hand in the region further, thus prompting new questions about the AKP’s ability to pursue a coherent foreign policy. Many wondered how Turkey could have assumed that deploying troops in Iraq without informing Baghdad would not have consequences.
The AKP’s policies have left Turkey facing the United States in Iraq — where Ankara also faces Russia and Iran — and facing Russia and Iran in Syria, where it is not completely on the same page with the United States, either. None of this suggests that Ankara’s influence in the region will improve. Aware of its growing isolation, Ankara sped up its diplomatic efforts for a rapprochement with Israel toward the end of 2015. While this could turn into a diplomatic breakthrough for Ankara, the deal is far from done. There is no indication that Israel is prepared to comply with Ankara’s demand that the Gaza blockade be lifted. There is also the outstanding issue of whether Ankara will comply with Israeli demands regarding Hamas, with which the AKP feels a close affinity. Turkey’s ties with Europe in 2016 will be determined by the fight against Islamic terrorism and the refugee crisis emanating from Syria. The EU-Turkey summit in November resulted in a joyful declaration by Davutoglu that “a new chapter had been opened in Turkey’s ties with Europe.” European leaders also promised to help energize Ankara’s bid for EU membership.
But Turkey’s ties with Europe will be predicated on issues that have little to do with Ankara’s EU bid. While more cooperation is expected on the issues of Islamic terrorism and refugees, the European Union remains concerned about the AKP’s Islamist/Sunni leanings and its less-than-democratic policies at home, which are not expected to change in 2016. Soli Ozel, who lectures on foreign policy at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University and is a columnist for the daily Haberturk, is among those who believe that the AKP has only itself to blame for this overall situation. “By aiming at targets way above its capacity at the start of the Arab revolts, Turkey ended up condemning itself to a position that will be considerably below its capacity,” Ozel said in a recent commentary. Taha Akyol, a prominent columnist for the daily Hurriyet, is also among those who believe AKP is the victim of its ambitions, shortsightedness and hubris in the Middle East. “[AKP’s] extreme obsession with power has in recent years produced authoritarianism at home, and a politically defiant tone abroad, especially after the events following the Arab Spring,” Akyol wrote recently. He added that statements from Ankara during this period “far exceeded Turkey’s power.”
The fact that Ankara went beyond its capacity in that way, while making its Sunni leanings apparent, also shows there will be no role for Turkey as a mediator or facilitator in any dispute in the region in 2016, especially ones fueled by sectarian divisions. Akyol suggests that Turkey's increased dependence on the West, in view of the crisis with Russia, and Turkey's effort to improve ties with Israel could be signs that Ankara is moving toward more rational approaches to foreign policy. Many argue, however, that this is wishful thinking because the Islamist/Sunni-based ideological outlook is part and parcel of AKP’s makeup, and is therefore unlikely to change. Retired Ambassador Unal Cevikoz, a trustee and lecturer at Kadir Has University, has his own take on the topic. Turkey will achieve real change only when it stops interfering in other countries' domestic affairs and announcing "who should be running, or not running neighboring countries," Cevikoz wrote recently in his column for the daily Radikal.

Amid financial hardship, Erdogan looks to Qatar as 'rich daddy'
Zülfikar Doğan/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
A series of controversial steps in the region has left Turkey increasingly isolated in its neighborhood. As a result, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has gone on a hunt for new “friends.” Normalizing ties with Israel is now back on the agenda. The second door the government has knocked on is Qatar's.Yet, even Qatar’s friendship could not stop the Arab League from adopting a joint statement last week condemning the Turkish troop deployment in Bashiqa, near Mosul, and urging Ankara to respect Iraq’s territorial integrity. The deployment “is an assault on Iraqi sovereignty and a threat to Arab national security,” the statement said, while Arab League deputy chief Ahmed Ben Heli added that the Turkish troops “increased tumult in the region.”
Meanwhile, the AKP government seems to have postponed its claim of “neo-Ottoman and regional leadership” by joining the Saudi-led Islamic coalition against terrorism, while moving even closer to Qatar, a country with which Erdogan has had warm ties for years. Snubbed by Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Paris climate summit in early December, Erdogan flew directly to Doha for talks with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. The sides signed an agreement for Turkey’s import of Qatari natural gas. Commenting on the agreement, Erdogan said, “As you know, Qatar was planning to enter the liquefied natural gas [LNG] sector in Turkey. They were exploring whether they could invest in Turkey in the realm of LNG storage. Now a step forward has been taken on this issue.” As energy cooperation with Qatar moves higher on Turkey’s agenda, Qatari investments in Turkey are also noteworthy. A series of investments by Qatari companies have cheered up the AKP government, alleviating the impact of foreign capital flight from Turkey.
Since the Nov. 1 early elections, foreign investors have withdrawn some $1.5 billion from the Turkish stock and bond markets. The Qatar National Bank (QNB), for its part, announced last week it was putting 2.7 billion euros ($3 billion) in Finansbank, Turkey’s fifth-largest private bank. In 2013, the Commercial Bank of Qatar had bought the majority shares of another Turkish lender, ABank, for $460 million. Tuncay Ozilhan, the CEO of Turkey’s Anadolu Holding, which sold the shares, would later comment “good chemistry” had been found with the Qataris, adding, “We are now relaxed and comfy. A rich daddy makes one joyous and easy.” The QNB’s acquisition of Finansbank is a move of economic and financial significance for Turkey, coming as a morale booster both for the government and the financial markets at a time when economic confidence indexes have badly plunged. QNB CEO Ali Ahmed Al-Kuwari said in a statement that it was looking forward to contributing to Turkey’s economic future and boosting QNB's international activities.
The Turkish media has been another sector drawing remarkable Qatari investments. Al Jazeera’s project to launch a Turkish-language TV channel has hit a dead end, but the network maintains a Turkish-language news portal. The Qataris entered the Turkish media sector in 2008 when one of the country’s largest media groups, Sabah-ATV, in state receivership due to its owner’s unpaid bank debts, was acquired by a partnership between Turkey’s Calik Holding — in which Erdogan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak, now energy minister, and his brother Serhat Albayrak served as senior executives — and Qatar’s Lusail International Media Company. The Qataris acquired 25% of the media group’s shares and put significant money in Calik Holding. The Sabah-ATV group was later sold to businessmen close to Erdogan in a controversial transaction, which figured prominently in the corruption and bribery scandal that rocked the government in December 2013.The boss of another pro-government media group, Star, has partnered with Qatar in the defense industry sector. In 2013, the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF), which runs companies taken into state receivership, sold two newspapers, two TV channels and the BMC vehicle manufacturer — all seized from Cukurova Holding — to Ethem Sancak, a Turkish businessman famous for saying he was "in love with Erdogan." After buying BMC, which manufactures armored vehicles for the Turkish army and police, Sancak sold half of the company’s shares to the Qatar Armed Forces Industry Committee.
Most recently, the Bein group, an Al Jazeera affiliate, acquired Turkey’s biggest satellite television provider, Digiturk, in what was the largest Qatari investment in the Turkish media sector so far. The TMSF sold Digiturk, also a former Cukurova asset, to the Qataris without asking for a tender and without disclosing the financial terms of the deal. Digiturk, which holds the broadcast rights of the Turkish soccer league, has 3.5 million subscribers and broadcasts 239 television channels. Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the CEO of the Qatari company and president of French football club Paris Saint-Germain, called Digiturk’s acquisition “a key milestone in our global expansion.” Additionally, Mayhoola for Investments, a Qatari investment fund that owns Italian fashion house Valentino, acquired a stake earlier this year in Boyner, one of Turkey’s leading textile, ready-to-wear and retail companies for 885 million Turkish lira ($304 million).The Qatari direct investments in Turkey, which now stand at $6 billion, could soon reach $10 billion, according to media reports. Qatari investors are reportedly in talks to buy a stake in another large Turkish bank, whose name has not been disclosed. The economic ties have developed against the backdrop of close personal relations between Qatar’s rulers and Erdogan, his family and inner circle. The Qatari and Saudi support for Erdogan and the AKP has been also the subject of speculation regarding the huge mysterious inflow of unidentified foreign currency to Turkey during the years of AKP rule. The sum has reached an unprecedented $36 billion in total, with the monthly inflows increasing especially during election time. Qatar’s support for Turkey’s president and government in times of hardship does not go unanswered, of course. In March, Istanbul’s Metropolitan Municipality made a gesture in its own way, renaming one of the city’s major roads “Qatar Boulevard.”

Can tourism be revived in ancient Iraqi city?
Wassim Bassem/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
AL-DIWANIYAH, Iraq — The ancient city of Nuffar, just south of al-Diwaniyah City near Baghdad, dates back to 2500 B.C. Nuffar (or Nippur) was a holy city to the ancient Iraqis of the Sumerian and Babylonian civilizations.Yet the city is not holy to Abbas al-Yassiri, 70, who resides in a village in the Afak district near the ancient city. He told Al-Monitor what's left of Nuffar is “mere ruins of a city that was punished by God for the rampant corruption there.”His opinion is no different from that of some contemporary Muslims and sects such as Tawhid, which reject the glorification of pre-Islamic archaeological sites and civilizations, including the city of Nuffar, because they belong to civilizations that practiced polytheistic religions, such as the Pharaonic civilization in Egypt and the Sumerian and Babylonian civilizations in Iraq.
Yassiri said the site “is a source of black magic and evil." He added, "Interestingly, ancient Iraqis considered Nuffar a blessed piece of land that was dropped from heaven by the Euphrates, which divided the city into two parts.”Al-Monitor communicated with Hamza Genahee, a historian and sociologist who resides a short distance from the site. He spoke to Al-Monitor about the so-called religious capital of the Sumerians and Babylonians. He explained, “The Mesopotamian people worshiped Enlil [the god of wind]. They believed that he took this piece of land as a seat. Offerings were made to Enlil, and religious ceremonies were held at the ziggurat, a massive structure that is part of temples.”
Genahee pointed to the religious and political importance of the city, saying its “name was mentioned in the Epic of Gilgamesh. Inscriptions were found in this city indicating that its inhabitants were reading and writing early on in history.”Al-Monitor made a visit to the Nuffar site. On the approach by car, the ziggurat was visible as a high mound in a vast plain of sand dunes. To get there, it was necessary to walk on an unpaved road for nearly 20 kilometers (12 miles). The extent of neglect by the authorities concerned with archaeology is obvious at the site, once the most important in ancient Iraq. It was a seat of a god who granted royal titles to rulers of this ancient land. Closer to the ancient city center, the details of the ziggurat gradually became clearer. Part of a landscape covered by the dust of time, it was a conical hill similar to a terraced step pyramid with a large base and a peak rising to a height of 20 meters, which we climbed from the eastern side. The ziggurat, now damaged by wind and rain, was built under the rule of King Ur-Nammu, the founder of the third dynasty of Ur (2050 B.C.).
A tour at the site winds on dirt pathways between the mounds formed by sand accumulation over time. No excavations of them have been conducted yet, and their treasures are unknown. These pathways are covered with sand and surrounded by the tall grass and bushes of the desert, further evidence of long neglect. Some excavation activities were conducted in 1889 here by an expedition from the University of Pennsylvania.
In his report about historic libraries, historian Kazem Abdullah included this city in the most ancient libraries in history. There are no security measures to protect the site. There is not even a tourist guide to explain the monuments. Mohammad Sultani, a resident of the neighboring Afak district, volunteered to guide us. Sultani pointed at holes in the mounds, saying they were caused by illegal excavations carried out by gangs and thieves living in the neighboring areas. He said many artifacts have been stolen from the areas that were not legally excavated. He added, “Some residents of the neighboring areas are trading looted antiquities from the site.” He added, “Security threats and tribal ties make it hard to prevent trading stolen antiquities and to notify the authorities.”Al-Monitor continued the tour and reached a low area between the mounds. Sultani said, “It is the old course of the Euphrates, which flowed through the city before its water receded as the years went by to become a dry riverbed."The Temple of Enlil, marked by an old sign, is a square structure just three meters (10 feet) long. Nothing is left of it but crumbling walls.
The Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities has no plans to rehabilitate the site. However, on Oct. 30, 2010, there were news reports that the ministry had allocated 3.5 billion Iraqi dinars ($3.1 million) to rehabilitate the city of Nuffar. The ministry has also organized an annual cultural festival in al-Diwaniyah since 2010 that puts on plays, screens documentaries and hosts art exhibits. Shwan Daoudi, a member of the Culture Committee of the Iraqi parliament, told Al-Monitor, “The rehabilitation of archaeological sites is a slow [process] due to negligence that was aggravated by the financial crisis. This is caused by the lower oil prices, which will affect future projects in most archaeological sites.”This negligence was also evident in the warning issued by the University of Al-Qadisiyah on May 28, 2013, of the possible “collapse of the ziggurat at the Nuffar site, after a water leak led to the collapse of large parts of it.”In light of the financial crisis, Essam Alwan, a retired tourism worker who participated in the rehabilitation projects for Baylon’s antiquities in the 1980s, told Al-Monitor, “It is necessary to turn archaeological areas into profitable touristic and cultural areas that will provide funds for rehabilitation activities.”He called for the private sector to take the initiative after the successive governments have failed to achieve any progress in this field.

Will Green Movement haunt Iran’s upcoming elections?
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/December 30/15
The registration process for the February 2016 parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections has come to end with a record number of candidates: Nearly 12,000 individuals registered to compete for a seat in the 290-Guardian Council spokesman Nejatollah Ebrahimian told Tasnim News Agency on Dec. 27 that the council will review all the comments and actions of the candidates during 2009 postelection protests. He said that the behavior of the candidates should not have been such that it could be construed that they participated in the illegal activities during 2009, adding they should have “clear and specific lines drawn with the sedition of 2009.”The contested 2009 presidential elections, which hard-liners refer to as the “2009 sedition,” was a turning point in Iranian elections. The incumbent, controversial hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was announced the victor. The Reformist candidates, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, challenged the results and encouraged their supporters to hold street protests — the largest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Despite hundreds of arrests, dozens of deaths and the house arrest of the so-called Green Movement leaders, Iranian officials responsible for the crackdown continue to raise the issue of the 2009 elections as a sort of dividing line between those who should be allowed to be part of the political process and those who should not.
The Guardian Council spokesman was not the only official to discuss the 2009 elections recently. Mohammad Hussein Safar-Harandi, an adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Dec. 27 that Mousavi “is still under delusion and for this reason has not repented nor apologized.” Mousavi, his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, and Karroubi have been under house arrest since February 2011. While a number of the Reformists had their political careers come to an end over the 2009 elections, politicians who stayed on the fence or were perceived to have supported the Green Movement behind the scenes are most at risk of being disqualified in these current elections. Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a candidate in the Assembly of Experts elections, is perhaps the most well-known political figure who is attacked by conservative media for not drawing a clear line with those who contested the elections.
While Rouhani will hope that moderates make a strong showing to break the grip of conservatives over this parliament, given the high number of candidate registrations, there will certainly be a high number of disqualifications. Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, the head of the Guardian Council, said during Friday prayers Dec. 25 that the high numbers of candidates to register are “unfortunate” and “mysterious."For the people who registered for the Assembly of Experts, which elects the supreme leader, Jannati rhetorically asked, “Do they really know themselves to be religious scholars?” One of the more headline-grabbing candidates to register for the Assembly of Experts was Hassan Khomeini, 43, grandson of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. While Rafsanjani has praised Hassan Khomeini’s religious credentials in the past, others have questioned whether he has the religious experience and training to determine whether an individual is qualified to be the supreme leader.

Is Riyadh belt-tightening or amending economic approach?
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/December 30/15
I do not think the pricing decisions that the Saudi government recently announced reflect a policy of belt-tightening, as some claim. They say these decisions are temporary and a response to the steep decline in oil prices, but according to what was announced, the pricing decisions are corrective, not austerity measures. The solution is to diversify the economy so it is not so dependent on oil revenues, otherwise Saudi Arabia will be poor within a few years. In Britain, filling a car with petrol costs around $100, while in Saudi Arabia it only costs $10. However, the price is not the issue - rather, it is citizens’ income, which needs to be increased. The government needs to develop the economy so the entire country - not just the government - becomes rich, and so people are able to pay for commodities without state help. It is easier for politicians to just pay subsidies and employ the unemployed, but this is unsustainable. Correcting prices is necessary in order to decrease the government’s heavy burden of subsidies. The most important thing here is that all this falls within the context of changing the economy’s philosophy and dynamics. A difficult step has been taken in reforming a governing style that is more than 40 years old
Many will be patient with a situation they are not accustomed to - such as price increases due to subsidy decreases - on condition that there is real economic and developmental reform. This is what the government is promising.
Necessary steps
The task is complicated, requiring the correction of education, providing training support, altering the interests of bank investments that are currently inactive, introducing the concepts of modern management, amending the map of industries, encouraging women to work to improve family income, fighting social habits of depending on others, holding government institutions accountable, and adopting a program that fights corruption on all levels. The wish list goes on, but it is not impossible to implement because when the country’s production increases, the incomes of citizens - who will pay the entire price of a liter of fuel according to the price of global markets, without complaining - will also increase. A difficult step has been taken in reforming a governing style that is more than 40 years old. Since the 1970s, the concept of state subsidies has been favored due to financial abundance, but the Saudi population has increased from 8 million to around 25 million, including 4 million foreign workers. It is in citizens’ interest to amend the economic situation and work toward a safe future. Correcting prices is the first major step. Oil revenues are decreasing and the population will double, while the standard of living in the world will continue to rise.
Therefore, the public interest is not in paying off fiscal deficits via government support, borrowing money or austerity measures. The solution is to develop citizens’ capabilities and the country’s productive potential so Saudis become like citizens of develo

Is Russia going soft on Assad?
Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/December 30/15
Russia is progressively unveiling the objectives behind its large-scale military operations in Syria. Moscow is literally remapping the country to serve its long-term strategic interests, and to change its status in Syria from key player to sole manager. Russia claimed that its aim in intervening directly was to fight the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). However, skepticism has increased, with many parties - including Washington - accusing Moscow of hitting the opposition to save the deteriorating regime. To challenge these allegations, Russia increased its bombing of ISIS and urged coordination from other countries.Today, however, Moscow does not seem worried about the world’s perception of its role in Syria. Moscow may be ready to soften its stubborn stance on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as long as his replacement does not threaten its interests. In its bid to dominate, Russia has reportedly entered talks with the opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA). This is likely to be true in light of the decrease in FSA attacks against regime forces. Russia is trying to make its own recipe for a solution in Syria, but its goal is wider. It hopes that its increasing military engagement in Syria will create a deal with the West over Ukraine that ends sanctions, which are hurting Russia’s economy, particularly given the sharp decline in oil prices. Moscow also hopes to fill the regional power vacuum left by U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East.
Russian statements
As such, Moscow may be ready to soften its stubborn stance on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as long as his replacement does not threaten its interests. Recent remarks by Russian officials point to this softening. In his traditional end-of-year news conference, President Vladimir Putin made no mention of Assad being a necessity for Moscow, saying only that Syrians themselves should decide who leads them. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the Kremlin wanted Syria to prepare for parliamentary and presidential elections. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was more explicit. When asked in November whether it was crucial for Moscow that Assad remain in power, she replied: “Absolutely not, we’ve ever said that… Only the Syrian people can decide the president’s fate.”Russia’s softening on Assad is also related to the U.S. position. Washington has spent a lot of resources and diplomatic effort on him stepping down, and so is unlikely to change course. France, Britain, Germany and regional states also want Assad to stand down, as he bears responsibility for the conflict by waging war on his own people. Moscow cannot afford to be at odds with all these major players because it would mean more isolation.

Will Russia boost Mideast ties in 2016?
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/December 30/15
The year 2015 was very controversial and ambiguous for Russia, particularly regarding its military and foreign policies. Its unprecedented involvement in the Middle East, and its engagement with the Muslim world, reflect fundamental changes in Russia’s self-positioning on the world stage. Many Middle Eastern countries became important strategic partners, and Russia - where Muslims and Christians coexist peacefully - showed readiness to contribute to the global fight against extremism, and to promote moderate Islam. Moscow increased cooperation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Even the current ban on flight communication between Russia and Egypt, temporarily imposed by Moscow, cannot spoil bilateral ties because it is based on security matters, not political ones.
The coming year will be marked by the improvement of Russian ties with Middle Eastern countries.
Russia has demonstrated its willingness to challenge U.S. dominance of the Middle East military market, with cheaper and sometimes better military equipment. Moscow finally delivered the S-300 missile system to Iran following a deal reached long ago, and its delivery did not have regional repercussions. Nor did Russia’s S-400 deployment in Syria - on the contrary, it has forced all sides involved in the conflict to be more restrained and think twice before acting. In 2015, Russia demonstrated how far it would go to defend its national interests, with little to lose after being put under pressure and threatened for too long, particularly due to the Ukraine crisis. Russians view Western sanctions as unmasking unfriendly intentions, and so have had the effect opposite to the one expected. The coming year will be marked by the improvement of Russian ties with Middle Eastern countries. The Kremlin awaits the visits of the Saudi and Moroccan kings, and the inauguration of investment, industrial and commercial projects in and with Middle Eastern countries. Russia will also try to substitute European and Turkish goods with those from the region.
Obstacles
However, developments from 2015 will limit Moscow’s room for maneuver. The dramatic fall in oil prices will continue to dampen the Russian currency. The bombing of a Russian civilian plane over the Sinai that killed 224 people, and the continuing terrorist threat will weigh on personal liberties and domestic security, hurting civil society and democracy in Russia. The deterioration of relations with Turkey due to the downing of a Russian fighter jet complicates Moscow’s position in the Middle East. Its expensive military operations in Syria will not end soon as there is no predetermined time limit and the goals are vague - this will weigh heavily on the national budget and economy. To overcome these difficulties, Russia will diversify and develop its ties with Middle East countries. Most likely its policies will remain unchanged, no matter what the risks. The year 2015 was tough, but the coming year may be tougher.

The Paris Response: Answering Urgent Questions in the Anti-ISIS Fight
Mohammed S. Dajani, Lori Plotkin Boghardt, Sarah Feuer, Soner Cagaptay, Simon Henderson, Michael Eisenstadt, Fabrice Balanche, Brig. Gen. Muni Katz, IDF, Nadav Pollak, Jeffrey White, Jacob Olidort, Matthew Levitt, Olivier Decottignies, Michael Knights, David Pollock, James F. Jeffrey, and Anna Borshchevskaya/ December 30/15
A Washington Institute Q&A
Experts weigh in on key questions regarding the perpetrators of the Paris attacks and the proper response, including counterterror and military measures in Syria and Iraq.
What is the mindset of ISIS leaders?
Are the Gulf States stopping private support to ISIS?
What are France’s North African allies doing about the ISIS problem?
Why isn’t Turkey curbing the flow of Syrian refugees and ISIS returnees into Europe?
How can Washington bring its Arab allies back into the fight against ISIS?
Are many thousands of U.S. boots on the ground the only way to defeat ISIS?
Why has ISIS been able to establish and maintain control in eastern Syria?
Does ISIS threaten Israel?
How should Washington respond to its allies’ need for leadership?
How can a highly adaptive and ruthless enemy like ISIS be stopped?
What impact will the Paris attacks have on other Sunni and jihadist groups?
How does ISIS finance itself?
Why didn’t France call NATO for assistance?
How could the U.S. military effort against ISIS be made more effective?
How much can the Kurds do against ISIS?
Why is Turkey staying out of the anti-ISIS fight, and how can Washington persuade it to be more helpful?
Does ISIS truly want to create an Islamic State, and would it leave the West alone if the West left it alone?
What happens if Europe turns up the heat on Syrian refugees?
How useful is Russia in combating ISIS?
What is the mindset of ISIS leaders?
Why blow up a Russian airliner and thus challenge a powerful nation to destroy you? Why murder innocent civilians in Paris in plain sight, thereby demonizing yourself and your faith and losing global support for your cause, whatever it is? Why behead a Chinese citizen and thus add one more powerful nation to the list of your deadly enemies? Why broadcast threats of imminent attacks against the United States, the most powerful nation in the world? Why infiltrate refugees fleeing from your terror in order to antagonize host nations against them? And what exactly does ISIS expect to happen when some or all of these actors come gunning for it in Syria and Iraq?
To answer these questions, one must understand the Islamic State’s mindset: namely, its belief that creating global mayhem, fear, and chaos will bring about the end of days. To them, this is Armageddon, the last battle fought against infidels from different corners of the world. In that sense, their goal goes far beyond that of al-Qaeda and the late Osama bin Laden, who wanted just a limited war aimed at liberating Muslim nations from supposed U.S. imperialist hegemony. ISIS leaders have a wider vision and a more comprehensive strategic design. Their mindset can be boiled down fairly bluntly: “You want a clash with Islam, we’ll give you a clash with Islam.” Indeed, their nihilistic ideology and actions are based on a series of such fallacies — that ISIS speaks for Islam; that Islam is a religion of conquest rather than peace; that those who die fighting for the sake of God and Islam are martyrs destined to live among the prophets in heaven; that Christians and Jews have lost favor with God; that its infidel enemies are cowards; and that its cadres are unlimited in number and global in reach. Perhaps most important, ISIS believes that it represents the “good” in this “final battle between good and evil,” and that it will be victorious despite the seemingly insurmountable forces arraying against it.
— Mohammed Dajani
Are the Gulf States stopping private support to ISIS?
Over the past year, Saudi Arabia has suffered a deadly succession of high-profile attacks linked to ISIS. In June, Kuwait was victim to an ISIS suicide bombing at a Shiite mosque — its worst terrorist incident in decades. And Bahrain recently announced its first trial of alleged ISIS supporters plotting attacks on the island. Deep concerns about these and other terrorist activities have driven policies aimed at discouraging ties between Gulf citizens and foreign residents on the one hand, and ISIS members in Syria and Iraq on the other. The idea has been to reduce the incidence of residents with ISIS links bringing the fight home to the Gulf states.
Funding and delivering weaponry to ISIS, traveling abroad to fight with the group, and providing other kinds of support is prohibited in most Gulf states. Several countries have been arresting, prosecuting, and jailing ISIS backers. In Saudi Arabia, ISIS financiers, would-be fighters, and clerics championing the group have been among the thousands of individuals detained by authorities in recent years. But some Gulf states are balancing other domestic and foreign interests with the extremist threat. One country that is understood to be home to ISIS supporters but has not announced a trial for anyone backing the group or other al-Qaeda-related entities is Qatar.
Most Gulf states have not taken serious steps to curtail the extremist dogma on which ISIS feeds and grows. They continue to tolerate and in some cases sanction hateful ideology in their mosques, schools, and/or media. Oman and the United Arab Emirates have been relative exceptions in this regard. Gulf efforts to halt private support for ISIS in Syria will continue to be challenged by this cyclical phenomenon.
— Lori Plotkin Boghardt
What are France’s North African allies doing about the ISIS problem?
Among the nations eagerly awaiting clarification on France and Washington’s response to the Paris attacks are Morocco and Tunisia, their closest allies in North Africa. The attacks and the broader ISIS menace resonate deeply with both countries. North African immigrants and their French descendants form the bulk of the French Muslim community. Abdelhamid Abaaoud, the alleged mastermind of the plot, was a Belgian of Moroccan origin whose father recently moved back to the North African kingdom. Moroccan intelligence reportedly assisted the French in tracking down Abaaoud and his accomplices. And three days after the attacks, Turkish police announced that they had detained eight ISIS-linked Moroccans who had traveled to Istanbul from Casablanca and planned to continue on to Germany. Meanwhile, Moroccan authorities regularly disrupt terrorist cells plotting attacks at home.
For its part, Tunisia is mourning the loss of two of its own who were among the victims in Paris. The small country has earned the unfortunate distinction of being the largest exporter of foreign fighters to Syria and Iraq over the past four years — at least 3,000 so far. In recent days, Tunisian authorities have arrested seventeen Islamist militants for allegedly planning attacks against tourist and security locations in Sousse, the site of this summer’s beach massacre of thirty-eight tourists by a self-proclaimed ISIS member. Like the Paris attackers, some of the Tunisian plotters arrested on November 16 had traveled to Syria for training.
In the longer term, the attacks could roil the deep security, political, and economic connections between these countries and France. If the EU begins deporting more radicals, many of them will likely end up in North Africa, exacerbating the threat of terrorism from al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and affiliated groups. Moreover, France remains the largest trading partner, largest source of foreign investment, and a key source of remittances for Morocco and Tunisia, so its economic and social health in the wake of the attacks will have a direct bearing on these states’ trajectories. Tunisia has a particularly strong interest in seeing France thrive given its own struggles to complete a democratic transition, rebuild its economy, and fend off regional security threats. Accordingly, part of any U.S. assistance to France should be earmarked for bolstering common allies in North Africa, for whom ISIS is on the doorstep if not already inside the house.
— Sarah Feuer
Why isn’t Turkey curbing the flow of Syrian refugees and ISIS returnees into Europe?
Before the Paris attacks, Turkey was in talks with the EU to stem the flow of Syrian refugees. The attacks will raise the immediacy of that issue, with Turkey likely pledging to create a better refugee registration and hosting system. It may also agree to become a “readmission” country, allowing the EU to transfer Syrians who have entered the continent illegally to safe destinations in Turkey. In return, Brussels may yield (albeit gradually) to Ankara’s longstanding demands for lifting visa restrictions on Turkish citizens traveling to Europe.
Post-Paris dynamics will also rally European support around Turkey’s call for establishing a safe haven in northern Syria. For its part, Ankara will improve its cooperation with EU capitals to prevent the return of ISIS foreign fighters from Syria to Europe.
In the longer term, Ankara will leverage its newfound bargaining power with Brussels to jumpstart its EU accession talks. France has already signaled that it will lift its objections to unfreezing five of the thirty-five “chapters” in that process, and it will likely urge Cyprus to allow the unfreezing of another six. EU accession is one of the few remaining anchors of liberal democracy in Turkey, and rejuvenating the talks would strengthen that anchor.
Yet any such progress will depend on stemming the flow of foreign fighters to and from Syria. Several of the perpetrators of the Paris attacks had spent time in Syria after crossing over from Turkey, and many Europeans no doubt wonder about Ankara’s actual commitment to addressing that issue. Moreover, the attacks will likely bolster far-right and xenophobic political parties in France and elsewhere that have made opposition to Turkish accession central to their platform. Last but not least, given the concern over Turkish jihadists in Syria, EU countries will think twice before granting Turks visa-free access.
— Soner Cagaptay
How can Washington bring its Arab allies back into the fight against ISIS?
As the New York Times reported before the Paris attacks, “The Arab allies who with great fanfare sent warplanes on the initial missions [in Syria] a year ago have largely vanished from the campaign.” The reported reason was that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have shifted their attention to Yemen, as has Jordan, which was additionally affected by the Islamic State’s grisly execution of a captured pilot. By contrast, the rarely stated reason is that the GCC countries are conflicted by events in Syria.
Fearing Iranian troublemaking and regional ascendency in the wake of the nuclear deal, GCC leaders would prefer an outcome in Syria that delivers a strategic setback to Tehran — in addition to displacing President Bashar al-Assad, whom they have loathed since he described them as “half-men” during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Hence the flow of Saudi and Qatari support for Syrian rebels, delivered with few of the scruples attached to U.S. and other Western military aid. Any fear of domestic jihadist blowback was apparently deemed a problem for tomorrow.
The challenge for Washington is to convince these monarchies that the United States has their back on Iran, acknowledging the threat that Tehran’s hardliners pose rather than dismissing it as Arab paranoia. In return, it will seek Gulf support for a Syria outcome that does not bolster Russia or Tehran — which could also help GCC leaders garner moderate Islamic legitimacy.
— Simon Henderson
Are many thousands of U.S. boots on the ground the only way to defeat ISIS?
Many of the proposed fixes to the campaign against ISIS involve “game-changing” moves such as committing large Western ground forces. This is just not going to happen, for a variety of reasons. As seen in past wars, however, incremental improvements in various aspects of the campaign could yield cumulative effects whose results could in turn be decisive.
For example, a combination of new tactics, operational concepts, and technologies enabled the Allied victory in the Battle of the Atlantic in 1943, Israel’s defeat of Syrian air defenses in Lebanon in 1982, and the 2007 “surge” that turned the tide of the Iraq war. In the counter-ISIS campaign, such a shift would entail intensified air operations, less restrictive rules of engagement, and the embedding of U.S. advisors with local ground forces. More important, in accordance with Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter’s recent promise, it would entail an intensified campaign of Special Forces, airmobile, and armored raids in eastern Syria by relatively small Western (e.g., French and American) units, aimed at wreaking havoc in the Islamic State’s rear areas and keeping it off balance. These raids would be launched in concert with offensives by Syrian Kurdish and Arab forces (if they can overcome their traditional rivalries) along their line of contact with ISIS.
This new concept would threaten the group on two fronts in eastern Syria and place it on the horns of a dilemma: counter the mobile Western raiders running loose in its rear areas and disrupting its lines of communication, or fight the Kurdish and Arab forces breaking down its front door? ISIS units forced into the open to deal with either of these threats would be vulnerable to punishing coalition airstrikes.
The United States should also carry out a focused information campaign that leverages coalition military successes to create an image of restored momentum, thereby producing a bandwagon effect in which the Islamic State’s enemies sense the group’s vulnerability, commit to the fight, and pile on. An overstretched and beleaguered ISIS would thus face the threat of uprisings from within and attacks from without — in Syria and perhaps even in Iraq.
This enfeeblement of ISIS should pave the way to establishing humanitarian safe havens and sustainable local political arrangements in Syria, as a first step toward dealing with the refugee problem and building up an effective moderate opposition. And, in an ironic reversal of the coalition’s original campaign logic, success in Syria may eventually create military and diplomatic opportunities in Iraq.
— Michael Eisenstadt
Why has ISIS been able to establish and maintain control in eastern Syria?
Military factors aside, the prevailing social, demographic, and economic situation in the eastern part of the country made it ripe for an ISIS takeover. The group’s chosen capital, Raqqa, is no prize in of itself — it does not have a prestigious past, nor is it of major strategic importance. It is simply the worst of Syria’s provincial capitals in terms of human development.
Raqqa currently has around 300,000 inhabitants (including 80,000 refugees), compared to 15,000 in 1960. Two-thirds of the population lives in large, informal suburbs. These are rural people who were driven toward the city by poverty and rapid population growth in the countryside. Raqqa province has the highest fertility rate in Syria: eight children per woman. It is also the most rural and agricultural province, with a majority of the workforce in the farming and mining sectors. Its average education level is the lowest in the country; one-third of women are illiterate, and early marriages are still the norm.
In addition, Raqqa was already living under some of the rules of sharia even before the 2013 ISIS invasion. When I visited the city in previous years, I did not encounter a single restaurant that served alcohol, in contrast to other Syrian cities. In this purely Sunni community (less than 1% Christian before 2013), ISIS is like a fish in water.
Economically, the plots of land that locals received during various reforms in the 1960s are no longer sufficient to feed families whose numbers have quintupled in half a century. Competition for land and water leads to conflicts between tribes that ISIS knows very well, and the group has used the situation to consolidate power. These land issues motivated the offensive against Kobane, where ISIS hoped to expel the Kurds and distribute their properties to its tribal supporters.
— Fabrice Balanche
Does ISIS threaten Israel?
At present, the ISIS branches that are active on Israel’s borders do not pose a major threat to it, nor do radicalized individuals inspired by the organization. The border threat is focused to the south and north; ISIS does not have any notable presence in the West Bank.
The ISIS branch in the Sinai Peninsula has proven to be relatively strong compared to other branches, but Israel is more than capable of coping with it given the strengthened fence on this frontier, as well as the advanced intelligence and combat capabilities that monitor this area constantly. Israel is also coordinating with Egypt to reduce the possibility of surprises.
To the north, ISIS affiliates have very limited presence close to the Syrian border, and their offensive capabilities in the Golan Heights are not significant at the moment. Thinking in advance about this potential threat, Israel has fortified the fences there and strengthened its military presence with additional forces and intelligence capabilities.
As for the threat posed by radicalized individuals, despite some high-profile cases, only about forty-five Israeli Arabs have left the country to join ISIS, which is a low number. Furthermore, authorities have reliable information about their identities, so if they try to return home, they will be apprehended the minute they arrive. Israel’s border control measures are some of the most restrictive in the Western world, so it has very good information about who arrives and who leaves. Notably, the Palestinian Authority and various Israeli Arab communities are also trying to deal with the threat of radicalization themselves — a welcome force multiplier to the Israeli government’s efforts.
The major threat that Israeli officials do fear regarding ISIS is the possibility of the group getting its hands on unconventional weapons such as a “dirty bomb” or chemical weapons. But they admit that the probability of this scenario is low at present.
For now, Israel has much more potent threats to its security than ISIS — namely the radical Iran-Hezbollah axis. This axis has significantly more offensive capabilities and resources to threaten Israel, whether by targeting its citizens abroad or targeting population centers inside Israel during an armed conflict.
— Muni Katz and Nadav Pollak
How should Washington respond to its allies’ need for leadership?
The Paris attacks reminded Londoners of their own city’s vulnerability, and the threat posed by jihadist fighters returning home from Iraq and Syria to live in a society they probably despise — and Albion’s current deficit of fighting spirit. Lacking an aircraft carrier of its own, Britain announced on November 18 that it was sending the destroyer HMS Defender to support the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in its mission to tackle ISIS forces.
The Defense Ministry statement accompanying this move could have been a script from the old television sitcom Yes, Minister, which used to poke fun at the British art of political decisionmaking — namely, its preference for elegantly finessing difficult choices. The official news release did not point out that the French aircraft would likely be hitting targets in Syria. Nor did it mention that Britain’s own anti-ISIS strikes are currently limited to Iraq because Prime Minister David Cameron is fearful that he cannot get parliamentary approval for expanding operations to Syria. To complete the appearance of farce, the HMS Defender‘s specialist role is air defense — a threat that ISIS does not pose to the French carrier group.
Opposition to more extensive deployment against ISIS comes from all corners of the British political spectrum — rebels in Cameron’s own Conservative Party, the newly significant Scottish Nationalist Party, and also the main Labour opposition party, now led by longtime left-wing maverick Jeremy Corbyn. These disparate factions are united by their reluctance to be involved in what some consider “other people’s wars,” a mindset that tends to underplay the jihadist threat at home.
The British navy’s usual partner is the U.S. Navy. Defender‘s sister ship, HMS Daring, was a constant companion to the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln during its Persian Gulf deployment three years ago, when Iranian air and naval units were real threats to operations.
In times of crisis, U.S. allies look to Washington for leadership in policymaking. For the moment they see little of that, despite White House briefings to the contrary. The immediate consequence will likely be continued fence sitting. When there is frantic signaling, as now from London, Washington needs to respond, and publicly.
— Simon Henderson
How can a highly adaptive and ruthless enemy like ISIS be stopped?
The Islamic State can be likened to a dangerous pest or invasive species. From that perspective, the minimum objective should be to reduce the group to the point where life can go on normally, while maintaining vigilance against any reemergence and, when necessary, taking appropriate prophylactic measures.
ISIS has propagated in an environment of instability and fanaticism, brought about by the collapse of state and society and exacerbated by ineffectual responses. The pest has grown strong, increasing its numbers and geographic range. It has become invasive, jumping borders and spreading well beyond its original territory. To effectively control it, the organism itself must be directly attacked, primarily with military force, and the environment in which it has flourished must be altered.
Directly attacking the pest entails:
Reducing its territory through offensive military operations to limit its resource base and the areas it can directly affect.
Killing its foot soldiers through attrition operations to reduce its capabilities and scope of action.
Killing the “queens and consorts” (the Islamic State’s leadership) to disrupt its ability to create new followers and direct their activities.
Increasing the number of predators and competitors on the landscape who can attack it directly and draw resources away from it (i.e., more Kurdish and other minority fighters, and more moderate rebel units).
Killing its colonies (Libya, Sinai, cells in Europe) before they become too strong.
Changing the environment is broader and goes beyond military measures. It includes:
Denying sustenance (recruits, money, arms) to the organism by sealing its borders, closing off revenue sources (e.g., petroleum sales), and countering its ideology.
Reducing its attractive qualities by reducing elements in the environment (i.e., the Assad regime) that make it look attractive.
Demonstrating that life under ISIS is likely to be brutal and short for its supporters (i.e., killing them, preventing governance, reducing quality of life in ruled areas).
Because ISIS is a highly adaptive and ruthless species now in possession of significant resources, these measures need to be applied simultaneously and persistently. Even if they are largely successful, continuous surveillance and reapplication of treatment will be required. Just like for those yellow jackets that come back to your yard every year, or the kudzu that clogs your stream.
— Jeffrey White
What impact will the Paris attacks have on other Sunni and jihadist groups?
While it is still too early to tell, there are strong indicators that the attacks could further isolate ISIS from other violent and nonviolent Sunni groups in the region. Nonviolent Sunnis issued condemnations of the attacks the very next day, calling them acts of terrorism with no basis in Islam. And while the scale and attention of the operation might encourage other jihadist groups to follow suit, they probably cannot muster the resources to do so. This includes al-Qaeda, which has a comparatively weak central command and is currently focused on competing with ISIS and Shiite groups in Syria and Yemen.
Setting aside the human tragedy that ISIS is still causing, the above implications might further support the argument that the recent attacks are symptoms of a group in retreat rather than on the ascent. Moreover, unlike al-Qaeda’s 9/11 attacks, the Paris operation may have been poorly timed — ISIS already faces mounting rhetorical and physical pressures from local Arab governments such as Egypt, creating disincentives for potential Arab recruits to join.
Even so, given the Islamic State’s unique appeal to certain foreign communities and its structural and financial independence from al-Qaeda and Gulf backers, the group will likely remain eager to plan attacks abroad, despite — or perhaps because of — its marginalization of other Sunni actors. The task before the international community is to establish greater security and intelligence coordination on ISIS recruitment overseas in addition to countering the group on the battlefield.
(Note: All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed above are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. government.)
— Jacob Olidort
How does ISIS finance itself?
The Islamic State is primarily financed through criminal activities in the parts of Syria and Iraq it controls. Its members steal livestock, sell foreign fighter passports, tax minorities, run a sophisticated extortion racket, kidnap civilians for ransom, loot antiquities, and much more. The group also makes about $40 million a month from illicit oil sales alone. But these sources primarily support expensive state-building and war-fighting enterprises back home, ranging from paying teacher salaries and collecting the garbage to bribing tribal leaders and rewarding its fighters.
As for its supporters abroad, ISIS has encouraged foreign cells to finance their operations through local criminal activities or legal sources such as welfare benefits and bank loans. Abusing charities is another funding stream available to terrorist operatives in the West. Thus far, the various financing schemes uncovered by European authorities have focused on raising funds for terrorist activities in Syria and Iraq, but small amounts could easily be skimmed off the top for operations inside the continent and elsewhere.
Unlike previous attacks in France, which were almost all lone-offender plots inspired by ISIS propaganda, the Paris attacks were planned outside the country. In the event that ISIS leaders wanted to send funds to finance this operation, they could have given small sums of money to various foreign fighters returning home to Europe, enough to carry on their person. The group has also engaged in backdoor banking, using institutions just outside its areas of control to access the international financial system. Yet while the group’s governance and military expenses in Syria and Iraq are high, carrying out an attack in the West is fairly cheap.
— Matthew Levitt
Why didn’t France call NATO for assistance?
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty lays out the principle that an attack against one ally “shall be considered an attack against them all.” In the wake of the 9/11 attacks, the United States invoked this article for the first time in NATO’s history. Yet after the Paris attacks, France chose not to, even while intensifying its airstrikes against ISIS in Syria in cooperation with Washington.
Instead, in a solemn address to parliament on November 16, President Francois Hollande called on the UN Security Council to “to adopt a resolution expressing our common will to combat terrorism.” This move is consistent with his call for the formation of a “large, single coalition” against ISIS, including Russia. It also reflects the extent of a threat that reaches far beyond NATO, as demonstrated by attacks in Tunis, Beirut, and the Sinai.
President Hollande also invoked Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union, which states that “if a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power.” In a deeply integrated bloc like the EU, France’s homeland security is intertwined with that of its neighbors. Although authorities in Belgium and Germany have already made arrests in connection with the attacks, the larger message is that France — for years at the forefront of the continent’s defense efforts from Mali to Syria — can no longer bear the costs or risks alone. The unanimous support that EU defense ministers have expressed in response is good news for Europe and NATO — if the Europeans deliver.
— Olivier Decottignies
How could the U.S. military effort against ISIS be made more effective?
ISIS has mastered the counter-stroke whenever America’s Iraqi and Syrian allies have landed a painful blow on the group with coalition help. Yet while high-visibility terrorist actions off the battlefield are a potent distraction, the coalition’s successes on the battlefield should not be overlooked, since they represent the most tangible and realistic means of striking back at ISIS. The terrorist movement values attacks abroad because they provide a countervailing narrative to its gradual military collapse in Iraq and Syria. So the first response to the Paris tragedy is to stay on track with the grinding coalition campaign against the ISIS-held cities of Ramadi, Raqqa, and Mosul.
Second, the U.S.-led coalition should boost the visibility of its military efforts, doing a better job of seizing media attention back from ISIS, holding it, and preparing for the group’s next distraction. For example, the buildup to the successful Sinjar offensive in Iraq was significant, as was the subsequent media coverage. NATO spin doctors first learned to feed the media’s insatiable appetite for dramatic imagery and detailed briefings during the 1999 Kosovo war, in part to deny this key terrain to the Milosevic regime. Today, the coalition needs to up its game in information operations, delegating more IO authority to lower levels at the headquarters controlling the fight in Iraq and Syria. Preparing IO options in advance for high-visibility strikes on ISIS leaders and key units would also help. The recent aerial destruction of ISIS oil tankers and the drone strike on “Jihadi John” are just the kinds of actions the coalition needs to have on tap. Some spectacular news should be kept quiet until the coalition needs a boost, which requires great discipline. And some strikes should be made more spectacular than strictly necessary (e.g., via more pyrotechnics and bigger devices) to show Arab publics what they can expect when the world’s greatest military powers are on their side.
Alongside showmanship, the coalition needs to fight harder. Without getting into sensitive details, the United States should significantly loosen the current rules of engagement (ROE), allowing lower-level commanders to approve strikes within a more reasonable timeframe if the risk of civilian deaths is small. This is the equivalent of downgrading platinum-standard target vetting to gold-standard. It would bring operations back into the realm of normal Western air campaigns and revolutionize the coalition’s ability to gut the enemy. Any such shift should be put into effect before it is announced. The first few weeks of an enhanced air campaign would be remarkably painful for ISIS, forcing its cadres to adapt in ways that help them survive but make them less effective.
If the U.S. government cannot move its own goalposts on target vetting, then it should create a “Coalition of the More Willing” that is not bound by U.S. ROE. American military units could cope quite well with an allied force that has more leeway to strike than they do — there should be no hesitation about providing France with any ISIS leadership coordinates that the United States has been agonizing over whether to strike.
— Michael Knights
How much can the Kurds do against ISIS?
The Kurds are limited in manpower and reach, are considered provocative by others needed for this fight (especially in Baghdad and Ankara), and are neither fully united nor fully democratic. But they are the best there is: disciplined, effective, friendly, and totally committed to the battle against ISIS. Kurdish militias — the Peshmerga in Iraq and the People’s Defense Units (YPG) in Syria — have demonstrated their military worth not only by successfully defending the Kurdistan region of Iraq against repeated ISIS assaults, but also by liberating significant areas such as Sinjar and Kobane.
So in order to fight ISIS faster, the United States should do even more to aid its Kurdish allies. In addition to the current airstrikes, arms supplies, and intelligence and Special Operations support, Washington could deliver more weapons directly to frontline units, accelerate joint planning for new military campaigns, and enhance coordination about “the day after” ISIS is pushed out of areas. Equally important, Washington should step up its humanitarian, development, and reconstruction assistance. The Kurds are suffering acutely under multiple economic burdens: a cutoff of funding from Baghdad, drastically lower prices for their own greatly increased oil production, hundreds of thousands of refugees, and the huge costs and devastation of war.
As for Turkish and Arab concerns, the Kurds’ own limitations are the best insurance policy — they are simply too few in number to take over much more of Syria or Iraq. The Kurds in Iraq have also largely kept their promise not to engage in ethnic cleansing as they advance. And the Kurds in Syria have kept their promise not to attack Turkey or aid their PKK sister organization in its doomed fight against the Turkish government.
— David Pollock
Why is Turkey staying out of the anti-ISIS fight, and how can Washington persuade it to be more helpful?
Turkey is a reluctant warrior against ISIS for at least three reasons. First, while it sees the group as a threat, it is more concerned with two other priorities: countering Kurdish nationalism of the sort advocated by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and its Syrian sister organization the Democratic Union Party (PYD), and ousting Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Second, while Ankara does not directly support ISIS, it has turned a blind eye to some of its activities, including in Turkey, and it allows freedom of movement to individuals transiting its territory to fight Assad regardless of which group they might belong to. Third, Ankara is attempting to use the prospect of more forceful action against ISIS (beyond opening bases to U.S. operations and conducting a few desultory airstrikes) as leverage to gain Washington’s acquiescence on the Turkish no-fly-zone idea in northern Syria, and to pressure the PYD to be more aggressive against Assad and less expansionist in Arab areas near the border with Turkey.
There is no pressure that can change President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s position on this issue. If the United States and its allies want a more active Turkey, then they must at least partially accommodate Ankara. That means taking more care in empowering the PYD and adopting a tougher position on Assad, most likely to include a no-fly zone. Ironically, Washington is reliant on the PYD not only because it refuses to commit U.S. ground troops, but also because it has not been able to enlist serious Turkish participation in the fight. The more Turkey can be persuaded to oppose ISIS actively, the less the United States will need to rely on the PYD. The opposite is also true, however — the more Washington embraces the Syrian Kurds, the more reluctant Turkey will be to enable such an alliance.
— James F. Jeffrey
Does ISIS truly want to create an Islamic State, and would it leave the West alone if the West left it alone?
Unlike previous ISIS-inspired plots, the Paris attacks were “prepared and planned elsewhere, with outside involvement.” That alone is a significant tactical shift for ISIS, and one that cannot be explained away as a response to gains made by the U.S.-led coalition in Syria and Iraq — such attacks take much longer to prepare, and they were surely already in the works when ISIS suffered its most recent setbacks. Moreover, the attacks did not take place in a vacuum — they followed a series of other international terrorist strikes claimed by ISIS in Turkey, Lebanon, and Egypt.
Yet while the recent foreign plots were a new step for the group, they should not have been unexpected. ISIS describes its goals as “enduring and expanding,” but that is not all it seeks to accomplish. Its ideology is explicitly apocalyptic, looking to draw “the Romans” (i.e. the infidel West) into a dramatic battle that will presage Judgement Day. Prophecies about an end-of-days battle in the Syrian town of Dabiq permeate ISIS statements and literature. The group’s English-language magazine is even called Dabiq; as its editors explain, “The area will play a historical role in the battles leading up to the conquests of Constantinople, then Rome.” The prophecies to which ISIS adheres demand conquest not just in the Middle East, but all over the world. As Will McCants explains in his excellent book The ISIS Apocalypse, “The Islamic State has stoked the apocalyptic fire,” fanning the flames of a dangerous ideology that respects no boundaries.
— Matthew Levitt
What happens if Europe turns up the heat on Syrian refugees?
Since the Paris attacks, several countries have decided to suspend the reception of Syrian refugees or allow entry to Christians alone, who are unlikely to be creatures of ISIS. This measure is partly an excuse to avoid taking their share of responsibility for the Syrian drama. If the decision stands and becomes a universal policy in Europe, it would engender feelings of hopelessness among many refugees that could in turn spur a huge wave of radicalization, particularly among those who fought the Assad regime.
In my many interviews with Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan over the past two years, I noticed their strong bitterness against Western countries: “You have pushed us to lift against Bashar al-Assad, you have promised us military help, but nothing came, as when Assad crossed the redline. Because we have trusted, we lost everything: we cannot come back to Syria, we are stuck in this miserable camp in Lebanon where we have no future.”
Indeed, humanitarian aid is falling, and Lebanese authorities are exerting stronger pressure on refugees to return to Syria. Heading for Europe is often their only hope, even if the quest takes years. The complete closure of European borders would strike many Syrian refugees as a new betrayal by the West. “You have betrayed us, and only ISIS can help us regain our dignity”: that is how most of my interviews ended in 2014, and one year later the situation is worse for the refugees.
— Fabrice Balanche
How useful is Russia in combating ISIS?
Numerous reports indicate that the vast majority of Russia’s airstrikes have not been directed against ISIS targets. Rather, Moscow’s Syria intervention has exacerbated the flow of refugees fleeing Assad, emboldened ISIS by helping to eliminate its opponents (including those backed by the West), and disheartened U.S. regional allies in the absence of a coherent Western response.
Vladimir Putin’s consistent support for Assad since 2011 also contributed to the growth of ISIS. According to an extensive July report by Elena Milashina of Novaya Gazeta, one of the few remaining independent newspapers in Russia, the Kremlin’s special services have controlled the flow of Islamist radicals from Russia into Syria since 2011, and sometimes even assisted their entry. Other reports and private conversations with experts support this report. Rather than help solve the problem, Russia’s Federal Security Service preferred to hand it off to others. As a result, terrorist attacks in Russia and elsewhere will likely increase once these fighters return home. Meanwhile, Russia’s policies in the North Caucasus have done little to reduce the pool of potential recruits for ISIS and other terrorist groups. In the past, Putin has not shied away from supporting Islamists abroad. For instance, he did not object when Assad allowed radical Islamists to transit Syria into Iraq.
It is in Russia’s interest to genuinely fight ISIS, especially given the instability in the North Caucasus, but Putin’s primary concern is to stay in power and divide the West. He is using the tragic Paris events as an opportunity to push the West to accept his agenda. A true global leader considers international security rather than pushing his own narrow interests at the expense of others, including his own people. In this context, Putin’s Russia is a poor ally in the fight against ISIS.
— Anna Borshchevskaya

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